The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

House Prices

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<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Residential property prices rose 1.9 percent in the June quarter nationwide according to the ABS.</div>
Price rises in Sydney (2.3 per cent) and Melbourne (3.0 per cent) were partially offset by falls in Perth (0.8 per cent) and Darwin (1.4 per cent). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.12.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.12.38%20AM.png" alt="">
Bruce Hockman, ABS chief economist for the ABS, residential property prices, while continuing to rise in Melbourne and Sydney this quarter, have begun to moderate. 
"Annual price movements ranged from -4.9 percent in Darwin to +13.8 percent in Sydney and Melbourne. 
"These results highlight the diverse housing market and economic conditions in Australia's capital cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.14.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.14.03%20AM.png" alt=""> "Through the year growth in residential property prices reached 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2017. 
"Sydney and Melbourne recorded the largest through the year growth of all capital cities, both rising 13.8 per cent followed by Hobart, which rose 12.4 percent. "The total value of Australia's 9.9 million residential dwellings increased $145.9 billion to $6.7 trillion. 
"The mean price of dwellings in Australia rose by $12,100 over the quarter to $679,100."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.14.57%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-20%20at%2010.14.57%20AM.png" alt="">
 
“The annual pace of dwelling price growth across Australia’s eight capital cities moved up a gear to 10.2 per cent during the June 2017 quarter,” said HIA Senior Economist, Shane Garrett.
The ABS Residential Property Price Index released today, shows acceleration in the pace of dwelling price growth.
“Dwelling price growth is still strongest in Sydney and Melbourne. Hobart and Canberra also showed robust price growth.
“The markets most affected by the natural resources investment downturn like Perth and Darwin continue to be affected by falling dwelling prices.
“The bottom line is that unabated price increases are putting the dream of home ownership beyond the reach of more and more Australians.
“The ultimate solution to the affordability challenge is to make the delivery of our future housing stock easier and less costly.
“More flexibility in housing supply is the answer,” Mr Garrett concluded.
Between the June 2016 and the June 2017 quarters, Sydney dwellings experienced the largest increase in price (+14.4 per cent) followed by Melbourne (+13.4 per cent) and Hobart (+11.3 per cent).
There were also rises in dwelling prices in Canberra (+8.9 per cent), Adelaide (+5.0 per cent) and Brisbane (+3.5 per cent) over the same period.
Prices declined in both Perth (-3.5 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent) over the year to the June 2017 quarter.
“Falling Perth house prices are indicative of a weak economy, which is why the State Government must double down on its commitment to driving the State’s growth,” Property Council WA Executive Director Lino Iacomella said. 
“A major focus must be on encouraging population growth through job creation. 
“There is a plethora of major infrastructure projects in the pipeline since the reveal of the State Government’s METRONET plans.
“It is also imperative that the government pushes ahead with its election promise to establish Infrastructure WA, to plan and prioritize infrastructure projects," he said.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

House prices continue to rise with double digit strength

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Median house prices over the June 2017 quarter increased nationwide with the exception of Adelaide and Perth, according to the latest REIA Real Estate Market Facts.
The report found the weighted average capital city median price increased by 1.8 percent for houses and 2.6 percent for other dwellings.
Malcolm Gunning, president, Real Estate Institute of Australia said the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities increased to $768,227, with prices increasing everywhere except for Adelaide and Perth.
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“The weighted average median price for other dwellings increased to $604,456, again driven by median price increases in Melbourne and Sydney and, to lesser extent, in Darwin, Adelaide and Hobart,” he said. 
“The largest increase in the median price for houses was seen in Hobart at 4.9 per cent, while for other dwellings Darwin’s 9.3 per cent increase was the highest. 
“In contrast median house prices decreased in Adelaide and Perth and median prices for other dwellings decreased in Brisbane, Canberra and Perth,” he said. 
"Over the quarter, median rents for three-bedroom houses decreased in most capitals except for Canberra. 
“Adelaide had the largest decrease at 2.9 percent, with the other capital cities having similar declines. Median rents for two-bedroom other dwellings increased in Canberra, Hobart and Sydney. In Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin median rents for other dwellings declined with Brisbane having the highest decrease of 5.1 percent. 
“The weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities remained steady at 2.8 percent during the June quarter. Both Darwin and Perth continue to have high vacancy rates at 7.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively, while Canberra recorded the largest decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Perth was the only capital city to see an increase with a rise of 0.8 per cent,” he said. 
"Both investor finance and owner-occupied housing finance, excluding re-financing, showed strong increases of 12.8 percent and 13.6 percent respectively over the quarter. 
“Whilst both increased, over the last eight quarters we have seen owner occupied financing greater than that of investors. The decline in investors is in response to the more rigid lending criteria imposed by APRA on investment property lending which is cooling the residential markets, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. 
“The past level of investor activity is flowing through in higher vacancy rates than has been the case for the last two years,” Mr Gunning said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Adelaide, Perth median house prices flat over June 2017 quarter

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A new report from UBS has forecast a slump in house price growth next year, but no crash.
The investment bank's report forecast that the correction would see annual house price growth to fall from 10 per cent now to 7 per cent by the end of 2017.
It will further reduce next year with growth forecast between zero and 3 per cent in 2018.
"We 'called the top' [in April] and now have increased confidence a correction is unfolding, but still don't see a crash," said economists George Tharenou and Scott Haslem.
"Looking ahead, price growth has likely already peaked, and we still see moderation ahead, amid record supply/completions, poor affordability and rising mortgage rates.
"But, we still don't see prices dropping given booming 'people' growth," the UBS economists said.
The economists expect both building commencements and construction activity to have a "sharp downturn until at least the end of 2018, but said the lack of RBA rate hikes "reduces the chance this becomes a crash where commencements plunge to prior cycle lows closer to 130,000 (a year) which would then see a weaker labour market and falling prices". 
Last month the UBS chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Scott Haslem announced he was resigning from the investment bank after 19 years.
The internal replacement was named as George Tharenou will be taking over the role from Mr Haslem, who will be pursuing opportunities outside sell-side research, UBS said in a statement.
Mr Tharenou has been at UBS since 2006, and has previously worked in the Reserve Bank of Australia and Queensland Treasury.
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UBS says population growth to thwart property prices going backwards

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80072/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Looking at data, there is no evidence to support the notion that house prices have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-02/have-we-finally-reached-peak-house-prices/8584470" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">peaked</a> or are on the cusp of a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/heated-house-market-hits-a-ceiling-in-sydney-and-melbourne/news-story/08a7b3f7cdb2feecfbcb15dd82746358" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">downward trend</a>.
House prices in Australian capital cities <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/capital-city-dwelling-values-rise-0-8-over-june-quarter" target="_blank">rose slightly in June</a> after <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">falling in May</a>. But <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">house price indexes</a> only show what’s happening in the market over a short time frame. Housing markets <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJHMA-07-2016-0052" target="_blank">are volatile</a> and you could just be looking at a seasonal blip.
Looking at the market fundamentals, there are no signs of a housing market slowdown. These indicators include economic and population growth, the unemployment rate, new housing construction, and auction clearance rates. They give us an idea both of the overall demand in the market, as well as the ability to pay for housing.
As economic and population growth increase, for example, there is both more money to spend as well as more people in need of housing. The rate of new housing construction tells us what will happen to housing supply, and the percentage of housing successfully sold at auctions gives us an idea of where we are in the house price cycle.
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<h2>Market fundamentals and key indicators</h2>
As you can see in the chart below, economic growth has been relatively strong in both New South Wales and Victoria. Growth in Gross State Product for both states was 2.6% in 2014-15, and even stronger in 2015-16; this was higher than the GDP growth rate of Australia overall.
This suggests that the local economies of both Melbourne and Sydney are performing better than the overall Australian economy. And a strong economy feeds into more demand for housing.
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The next thing to look at is the unemployment rate. A low unemployment rate means that fewer people are under pressure to sell their houses or default on their mortgages. This means the chance of sharp price correction in the housing market is lower when the unemployment rate is low.
Again, the unemployment rate in both New South Wales and Victoria is relatively low, around 4.8% in NSW and 6% in Victoria, <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/Downloads/ABSLabourForceRegion" target="_blank">compared with other states</a>. Unemployment is almost 7% in South Australia, for example.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PYRCD/6/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The auction clearance rate shows the percentage of housing that was successfully sold out of all the auctions that took place. The clearance rate roughly tracks housing prices - a high rate will normally be observed when house prices are high, and the reverse is also true. For example, the auction clearance rate was around 36-50% in Sydney in 2008.
Although the auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney have dropped in recent months, they are still around 70%. This is comparable with the same period last year, giving no indication of a sudden movement in house prices one way or the other.
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The next indicator is the proportion of vacant properties in the housing supply, also known as the vacancy rate. This is used as a gauge of whether there is too much or too little supply of housing in the market. Normally, a housing market is cooling if there are many vacant properties.
The vacancy rate has remained stable in Sydney and Melbourne recently, within a range of 1.7-2.2%. This suggests that there is little evidence of an oversupply of housing, and that housing demand is strong in both markets.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AS04o/1/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="192"></iframe>
Sydney and Melbourne show signs of strong population growth. This is true not just now, but over the past 6 years. As we can see in the following graph, both cities have recorded growth rates ranging between 13,000 and 43,000 people per quarter.
The strong population growth rate reflects that the fundamental demand for housing in both cities are high. Although more new dwellings have been completed in recent years, the levels are <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8752.0Dec%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">far below population growth</a>. This suggests that there is still more demand than supply in the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/V70xi/5/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The discrepancy between <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">May’s decline in capital city house prices</a>, and the other indicators that show no slow down in demand, illustrate the problem. These other indicators give you a better idea of overall demand for housing, which is what drives prices over the longer term.
Based on the prices alone, it is too early to tell whether the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are slowing or if they are on a downward trend. And the other indicators of the wider economy show us that housing demand is strong. It is only when this changes that you will know that house prices are slowing.
<hr>
This article included contributions from Mustapha Bangura, a PhD student researching housing affordability in Greater Western Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chyi-lin-lee-368009" target="_blank">Chyi Lin Lee</a>, Associate Professor of Property, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092" target="_blank">Western Sydney University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-tell-when-the-housing-market-is-slowing-80072" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How to tell when the housing market is slowing

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Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne will likely adjust after having been pushed to their peaks but they won’t resemble a ‘bursting of the bubble’, according to KPMG Economics. 
The report, titled Housing affordability: What is driving house prices in Sydney and Melbourne?, says the adjustment in prices is unlikely to be abrupt.
“Our analysis suggests that while short term factors have pushed median dwelling prices for Sydney and Melbourne above their long term equilibrium prices by about 14 percent and 8 percent respectively (as at the end of FY2016), this degree of disequilibrium has been experienced previously in these housing markets and they have managed to return to equilibrium without price movements resembling a ‘bursting of the bubble’,” it said.
Sydney's median home price are expected to decline, minus the effect of inflation, of up to 11 per cent as the cycle turned after 2019, but inflation effects would limit the nominal fall in price from $980,000 to $955,000 in 2021, says the report.
In Melbourne, the likely real decline of 4 per cent would mean a small decline in prices after inflation. The nominal median dwelling price is likely to plateau at $740,000 by June 2019, before peaking around $825,000 in 2021.
The report noted that the movement in Sydney house prices has been more volatile since the GFC, albeit without the same degree of volatility in the supply, demand or cost variables. 
“This data suggests that when the labour market and monetary policy are stable, investing in housing is more attractive as the underlying market risk is lower in these circumstances,” it said.
The report noted that the prospect of home ownership for “many seems to have become even more distant”. 
It said various commentators have blamed a range of factors that have ‘caused’ house prices to rise, including high net international migration, not enough social housing, limitations on the timing and release of new ‘greenfields’ development sites, and even the price of smashed avocado on toast for breakfast at a café. 
KPMG Economics says it found evidence of a long-run relationship between median dwelling prices and variables relating to the stock of dwellings, population and borrowing by residential property investors. It said each of these variables affect prices in different ways and different degrees.
It forecast that the Sydney housing market will experience a greater adjustment than will Melbourne, “but nonetheless this adjustment is unlikely to be abrupt or to significantly overshoot the long run equilibrium price on the downside”. 
In conclusion, it reiterated its solutions suggested in a previous report, Housing Affordability : What can be done about the Great Australian Dream, saying the steps include,
<ul>
<li>CGT reduction: reducing the capital gains tax discount from 50 percent to 25 percent, thereby making property investment marginally less attractive. </li>
<li>Aggregate property tax: abolish stamp duty on the transfer of residential property and conflate rates, land tax, insurance taxes and emergency service levies into a new Property Services Tax.</li>
<li>Systemic reforms aimed at maintaining the supply and diversity of land and housing in established and growth areas, through setting targets, streamlining planning and empowering public supply. </li>
<li>Targeted Reforms aimed at improving access to those groups who are the most excluded from affordable home ownership. This package would focus on more low cost housing, improved assistance to those who need it, and promoting shared equity.</li>
</ul>
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Sydney, Melbourne home prices will correct, but no bursting of bubble: KPMG Research

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The June RBA chart pack highlights the stats influencing the central bank.
The following charts illustrates what the Reserve Bank of Australia knows about Australia's household finances, housing prices and residential building approvals.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.49.31%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.49.31%20PM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.51.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.51.44%20PM.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.47.57%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2012.47.57%20PM.png" alt="">
 
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RBA's June chart pack reveals house price movements

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Australia's climb in house prices saw it move to 20th position in the Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index – Q1 2017.
In Q4 2016 Australia was in 37th position in with annual capital growth of 3.5 percent, with its 20th position ranking in Q1 2017 recording annual growth of 7.7 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.50.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.50.20%20AM.png" alt="" width="709" height="372">
According to the index, eleven countries recorded double-digit growth in the year ending March 2017.
Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank head of residential research, Australia said rather than global performance being purely driven by positive growth, the rise has been accompanied by an increase in the number of countries seeing double-digit annual price growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.51.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.51.32%20AM.png" alt="">
“The momentum in house price growth picked up in late 2016 for Sydney and Melbourne, and this flowed through to dominate the uptick in the national result.
“Australia last saw annual double-digit annual growth in Q4 2015, when house prices grew 10.7 percent as Australia ranked in 4th position.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.52.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.52.40%20AM.png" alt="">
“Since this time, the ability to source lending finance has tightened for both local and foreign investors, mortgage interest rates have increased despite the official cash rate falling 50 basis points to currently stand at 1.50 percent.
 “We also saw application fees for foreign buyers being introduced and state-based surcharges on stamp duty were increased in Victoria, and rolled out in NSW and Queensland,” said Ms Ciesielski. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.53.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-09%20at%2010.53.28%20AM.png" alt="">
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Australia climbs to 20th on Knight Frank house price index

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Do house prices always double every decade? I ponder the well versed notion every time I compare the latest price with its earlier sale.
Sydney's most affordable weekend auction acquisition was a hefty $502,500 for a three bedroom house at Windsor, in the Hawkesbury district.
Having traded at $255,000 in 2008, its price had nearly doubled over its nine year ownership, so mark that result to yes they can.
It had traded at $257,000 in 2005, showing that prices can fall too, albeit not quite off a cliff.
And it was interesting that the cottage's price had exactly doubled in amazing quick time from $110,000 in 2000 to $220,000 in boom time 2003.
These differing price surges nicely illustrate recent CoreLogic research calculating the current boom was actually subdued compared to previous times.
Over the 10 years to January 2016, Sydney home values increased by a total 78 percent - somewhat short of the so-called benchmark doubling over the decade.  
Sitting smack on 100 percent, Melbourne was the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the decade.
Looking at the 10 years to January 2006, Sydney home values more than doubled but the 138 per cent growth was the lowest performing capital as the 2004 price reversal hit hard.
Melbourne recorded home value growth at 167 per cent, with Perth out front with 175 percent growth in that decade.
There are lessons to be learnt from what’s happened to Perth where property valuer Gavin Heaney recently recalled boom time Western Australia thought it was "infallible."
“They say in the top end of Perth on a quiet day you can hear the property values falling,” a jocular Hegney was cited by www.news.com.au as saying last month.
Some years on after the end of the mining boom, Perth is still on its knees with financial counsellors in demand with people neck-deep in debt coming to them for advice. 
People who were earning high incomes during the mining boom are now struggling to get work and pay their mortgages.
With little wage growth and eratic economic uncertainty, it is likely that even for Sydney there are limits to what people can pay for housing.
It seems Sydney is starting to see common sense and wise economics as we move through the latter stages of the autumn auction market. 
Those many consecutive weekends of 80 percent clearance rates might be a thing of the past.
Meanwhile property investors who paid reckless prices will soon emerge as tax loss selling usually begins in May before the end of the financial year.
I will be watching for how deep they go as this is when investors crystallise capital losses.
The proportion of loss-making resales over the December 2016 quarter sat at 21 percent in Perth, while Sydney saw fewer than 2 percent resale losses.
This article first appeared in the Daily Telegraph. 
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Tax loss time for property investors to test market 

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Melbourne's strong home auction market continues this weekend with just over 900 homes are scheduled to go to auction on Saturday, up from the 655 conducted last weekend, according to Domain's Andrew Wilson.
"Melbourne’s north east is the most popular suburban region for auctions this weekend with 148 followed by the west (137), the inner city (131), the inner east (130), the inner south (123), the outer east (109), the north (87) and the south east with 46 auctions.
"Reservoir is again the most popular suburb for auctions in Melbourne this Saturday with 18 followed by Preston 15, Mt Waverley, South Morang, Camberwell and Kew each with 13 and a number of suburbs with 11 auctions listed including Glen Waverley, Brighton and Glen Iris.
"Nearly 800 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer this Saturday in Sydney which will be significantly higher than the 458 conducted last weekend and also well ahead of the 505 listed over the same weekend last year.
"The upper north shore will host the highest number of auctions of the Sydney regions this weekend with 111 followed by the city and east (104), the inner west and the south each with 100, the south west 71, the lower north 67, the northern beaches 66, the west 57, Canterbury Bankstown 41, the north west 31, the central coast 21 and the Blue Mountains with just 1 auction scheduled this weekend.
"Mosman is the most popular suburb in Sydney this weekend for auctions with 13. 
"Next highest is Castle Hill with 11 followed by Marrickville, Ashfield, Randwick and Turramurra each with 9 and a number of suburbs with 7 auctions listed including Eastwood, Dee Why and Chatswood."
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Bumper weekend for Sydney, Melbourne home auctions

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A downturn in China would trigger a recession in Australia, modelling by consulting firm Deloitte Access Economics shows. 
House prices would fall by 9 percent, in the “China sneezes, Australia catches pneumonia” scenario.
Although the Reserve Bank would respond by cutting rates and, when rates reached zero, by pumping liquidity into the market, Deloitte warns that global financial markets may become more ­reluctant to finance Australia’s deficits and may push rates higher.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson says that while a Chinese downturn is not his central forecast, its elevated debts and reliance on government stimulus spending to keep growth going means that it is a plausible risk, particularly given global tensions over trade.
“Compared with the global ­financial crisis, Australia’s vulnerabilities are higher, our defences are weaker, and this time around China would be a cause of the problem rather than a part of the solution,” Mr Richardson says, in an advance copy of a speech to be delivered to the National Press Club today, and reported by The Australian.
The Deloitte modelling is based on a scenario in which China’s growth rate slows from the 6.5 percent targeted this year to less than 3 percent.
Mr Richardson notes that ­Australia’s dependence on China is greater than with any other country.
Employment would contract by 500,000, with half those numbers formally joining the unemployed and the remainder exiting the labour force.
The construction industry would account for more than a third of the 500,000 jobs lost across the economy and would contract by 25 percent. 
Deloitte says a downturn in China is only one scenario, with it also being possible that China and Asia more generally may sustain the growth that has supported Australia’s extended run of growth since the 1990-91 recession.
Queensland would be among the hardest hit regions in Australia from a severe slowdown in China.
Deloitte says the slowdown in China’s economy since 2011 had already taken a toll, Deloitte Queensland managing partner John Greig said.
The scenario of China stumbling is one of the three potential scenarios detailed in major consultancy Deloitte’s latest “Building the Lucky Country” series report.
The report says that “none of these three scenarios is the ‘most likely’ outcome for Australia. But they’re all plausible”.
The report says that Australia’s gains from our relationship with China have been huge, but there is a flip side in that Australia has increased its dependence on China.
“Australia doesn’t have the defences we had back in 2008 and 2009 — we lack firepower in interest rates and the Budget,” report author Chris Richardson said.
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