The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

House Prices

<html><body>
Throughout 2019, Melbourne's house price have almost recovered what was lost during the slump, according to the latest quarterly report from Domain.
Houses have seen a 5% increase in value with median prices reaching $901,951. Units have seen even stronger growth of 5.6% with median values hovering around $549,701.
Though the year sprung off with deteriorating prices, the rest of 2019 saw growth, with the the final quarter providing the strongest quarterly gain in three years and the largest annual jump in two years.
With just under $6,800 left to regain, it appears that house prices are set for a new record high next quarter. 
However, this recovery remains uneven across the Melbourne as there are substantial price rises concentrated at the upper-end, led by the city, the inner east and inner south. 
Units in Melbourne continue to outperform houses as unit prices produced the strongest quarterly growth since mid-2009, and the biggest annual surge since mid-2010.
Unit prices are currently at a new record high that is 7.5 per cent higher than the previous peak in early 2018. 
Melbourne and Hobart units were the only cities to record a new high. Meanwhile, other cities remain below previous peaks in unit prices. 
Melbourne is the second most unaffordable city for units, with its price being higher than the median house prices in Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Hobart. 
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne's property prices look set for a new record high: Domain

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
With the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting official rates to 0.75% on Tuesday, has been a wave of commentary about the move doing little to help the economy apart from boosting housing prices.
There are two parts to assessing this claim. First, do rate cuts drive up property prices? Second, is that all they do?
Do rate cuts drive up property prices?
Economists have a precise answer to this question, and also a more practical one.
The precise answer is that all assets – stocks, bonds, property, stamps, vintage baseball cards, you name it – can be priced using <a href="https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/samplechapters.pdf" target="_blank">what is known as</a> the stochastic discount factor (SDF).
This says that in pricing an asset you should factor in all the future cash flows the asset will generate (rent or dividends or capital gains) and then translate those returns into today’s money, adjusting for the riskiness of those cash flows.
An easier way to think about how rate cuts might affect property prices – consistent with the asset-pricing approach – goes like this.
People look at how much money they can borrow based on what they can afford to pay back. An interest rate cut boosts their borrowing power.
Even though the major banks have only passed on about half of the Reserve Bank’s latest cut (owner-occupied mortgage rates have been cut by 13-15 basis points), that’s enough to give a household with income of $150,000 about another $12,000 to $14,000 in borrowing power.
They thus spend more and, because there is a limited supply of properties, this pushes prices up. So, yes, lower interest rates do tend to boost property prices.
Is that all rate cuts do?
But boosting property prices is not all that rate cuts do.
Higher prices for new dwellings help developers. They often lead to an increase in construction jobs as developers anticipate better conditions for selling properties. New property construction has a number of other effects, too, such as changing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">the average quality of the rental stock</a> and spurring more retail spending (because those new homes need to be furnished).
Perhaps even more important is the pseudo-psychological effect of existing home owners feeling wealthier when house prices go up. This can lead to increased consumer spending – and this can have a big economic effect, given consumer spending accounts for about 60% of GDP.
This “wealth effect”, rational or not, seems to be real. It is part of the reason the Reserve Bank’s governor, Philip Lowe, appeared to be concerned about Sydney and Melbourne house prices falling in the past couple of years. It is also why federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg is happy to see property prices again on the rise.
Finally, lower interest rates do make business investment cheaper.
Would corporate tax cuts provide a bigger boost to investment? You bet. Are there diminishing returns to rate cuts as the cash rate approaches zero? That’s very likely to be the case.
But would businesses invest more if rates were two percentage points higher? No way. And would business like rates to be higher? I seriously doubt it.
Rate cuts do something to drive down unemployment, drive up consumer prices, and boost investment generally.
Are rate-cut driven prices increases bad?
But they certainly do also drive up residential property prices.
The important question is whether that’s bad or not. The answer to this question is a little murkier.
Let’s start with the fact borrowers should be thinking about how much to borrow.
If they borrow too much and are unable to repay their loans, that’s very bad news for them. Defaulting on a mortgage is a wrenching experience. Most people try hard to avoid that.
That said, sometimes people make poor choices through lack of information, lack of thought or lack of willpower. Occasionally an unscrupulous third party will encourage them to borrow more than they should.
But it’s not in the interest of banks to make too many loans that don’t get repaid. If borrowers are the first line of defence again bad price increases, lenders are the second line of defence.
There is a third line of defence: prudential regulation. The <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/" target="_blank">Australian Prudential Regulation Authority</a> and the <a href="https://asic.gov.au/" target="_blank">Australian Securities and Investments Commission</a> are charged with enforcing “responsible lending laws” and ensuring the animal spirits and (sometimes) bad incentives of borrowers and lenders don’t get out of control.
So property prices increasing a few percent on the back of the rate cuts is unlikely to be problem – though as the Reserve Bank governor is fond of saying, “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24" target="_blank">time will tell</a>”.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124600/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yes-house-prices-will-rise-with-lower-interest-rates-but-thats-not-the-only-effect-124600" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

House prices will rise with lower interest rates, but that’s not the only effect

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year - average capital city home prices have turned up again.
I thought prices would fall further with a 15% top to bottom fall led by around 25% falls in Sydney and Melbourne. But the facts changed from May – with the election removing the threat to negative gearing &amp; the capital gains tax discount, earlier than expected interest rate cuts &amp; a relaxation of APRA’s 7% interest rate test all pushing prices up again. So, where to from here?
Extreme property views
There are basically two extreme views amongst “property experts”. On the one hand, some real estate spruikers still wheel out the old “property will double every seven years” line. On the other hand, property doomsters say it’s hugely overvalued and over-indebted with massive mortgage stress and so a 40% or so crash is inevitable.
The trouble with the former is that implies home price growth of 10.3% pa, so even if wages growth picks up to 3.5% (a big ask!) it implies that the average price to income ratio of Australian housing will rise to around nine times over the next seven years from around six times now and in 14 years’ time it will be 14 times!
The trouble with the doomsters is that they’ve been saying that for 15 years and we’re still waiting for the crash.
In between, first home buyers are wondering why it’s so hard to do what my and my parent’s generation took for granted: be part of the Aussie dream with a quarter acre block.
The reality is it’s far more complicated than these extremes. Here’s seven stylised “facts” regarding Australian property.
First – it’s expensive
This has been the case since early last decade and remains so despite the recent correction in prices:
<ul>
<li>According to the 2019 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices to income is 5.7 times in Australia versus 3.5 in the US and 4.8 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 11.7 times &amp; Melbourne is 9.7 times.</li>
<li>The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents relative to their long-term averages are at the high end of OECD countries.</li>
<li>The surge in prices relative to incomes has seen household debt relative to household income rise from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the high end now.</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%201.jpg" alt="">
These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But that’s been the case for 15 years or so now.
Second – it’s diverse
While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, in reality there is significant divergence between cities. This divergence has been extreme over the last five years with Perth and Darwin seeing large price falls in response to the end of the mining investment boom, as other cities rose.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%202.jpg" alt="">
The divergence is also evident in gross rental yields that range from 8.7% in regional WA units to 3.1% in Sydney houses.
Third – talk of mortgage stress is overstated
Headlines of excessive mortgage stress have been common for over a decade now.
There is no denying housing affordability is poor, household debt is high and some households are suffering significant mortgage stress. But most borrowers appear to be able to service their mortgages.
And despite some seeing negative equity and a significant proportion of borrowers switching from interest only to principle &amp; interest loans (which has seen interest only loans drop from nearly 40% of all loans to 23%) there has been no surge in forced sales and non- performing loans.
Non-performing mortgages have increased but remain low at around 0.9%.
While Australia saw a deterioration in lending standards with the last boom, it was nothing like other countries saw prior to the GFC.
Much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans.
Low doc loans are trivial in Australia and the proportion of high loan to valuation ratio loans has fallen as has the proportion of interest only loans.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%203.jpg" alt="">
Fourth – it’s been chronically undersupplied
Annual population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 373,000 people compared to 217,000 over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 75,000 homes per year.
Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the population surge (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices.
Thanks to the surge in unit supply since 2015 this is now being worked off, but it follows more than a decade of accumulated undersupply which is the main reason why housing has remained relatively expensive in Australia.
Not tax breaks or low rates – all of which exist in other countries with far more affordable housing!
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%204.jpg" alt="">
Fifth – house prices go up and down
After several episodes of price declines ranging from 5 to 10% across various cities over the last 15 years and 15%, 21% and 31% for Sydney, Perth and Darwin respectively in recent years home buyers should be under no illusion that prices only go up.
Sixth – the housing market remains rate sensitive
While it varies from city to city, despite much scepticism recent rate cuts have helped push up the property market again.
Finally – house price crashes are not easy to forecast
The expensive nature of Australian property and associated high debt levels have seen calls for a property crash pumped out repeatedly over the last 15 years.
In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to soaring property prices.
Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40%.
In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned that “Los Angelification” (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) will come to Australia. Similar calls were made a few years ago by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale."
Over the years these crash calls have often made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.
But our view remains that to get a national housing crash – as opposed to periodic falls in some cities – we need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply.
But while the risk of recession has increased it remains unlikely, aggressive rate hikes are most unlikely and while property supply still has more upside it’s unlikely to lead to a big oversupply as approvals to build new dwellings are now falling.
As we have seen for years now overvaluation and high debt on their own are not enough to bring on a crash.
So where to now?
The rebound in buyer interest since May has seen auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne rise to around 75% and prices lift nearly 2%, albeit other cities are mixed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%205.jpg" alt="">
 
This has so far come on low volumes, but they now look to be rising. Our base case is that house price gains will be far more constrained than the 10-15% implied by current auction clearance rates.
Compared to past cycles debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are tighter, the supply of units has surged with more to come and this has already pushed Sydney’s rental vacancy rate above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as economic growth remains soft.
So, we don’t expect to see a return to boom time conditions and see constrained gains through 2020 – eg around 5% or so. There are three key things to watch:
<ul>
<li>The Spring selling season – if auction clearances remain elevated as listing pick up then it will be a positive sign that the pick-up in the property market has legs.</li>
<li>Housing finance commitments – these have bounced but will have to pick up a lot further to get 10-15% price rises.</li>
<li>Unemployment – if it picks up significantly in response to slow economic growth then it will be a big constraint on house prices and could result in another leg down in prices.</li>
</ul>
We don’t see the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets as a barrier to further monetary easing, but it may reduce the need as it turns the wealth effect from negative to positive. And if it continues to gather pace then expect a tightening of the screws again from bank regulators.
Implications for investors
Over long periods of time residential property provides a similar return to shares (at around 11% pa) but it offers good diversification as it performs well at different times to shares so it has a role to play in investors’ portfolios.
The pull back in prices in several cities in the last few years provides opportunities for investors, but just bear in mind that rental yields remain relatively low in Sydney and Melbourne and be wary of areas where there is still a lot of new units to hit.
There is probably better value to be found in regional centres and Perth, and Brisbane looks attractive in offering reasonable yields, a low vacancy rate and improving population growth.
Key points
<ul>
<li>
The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists &amp; doomsters portray it to be.
</li>
<li>
Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated &amp; it’s been undersupplied.
</li>
<li>
The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but the upswing is likely to be constrained.
</li>
</ul>
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

The seven things you need to know about the Australian property market: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Australian capital city dwelling prices rose 0.1% in July according to CoreLogic. After a 10.2% decline over 22 months (which was worse than the decline seen in the GFC), this is their first rise since September 2017. Dwelling prices are still down 7.3% from a year ago.
Sydney dwelling prices rose 0.2% which their second gain in a row and Melbourne prices also rose 0.2% which is also their second gain in a row.
Prices also rose in Brisbane (+0.2%), Hobart (+0.3%) and Darwin (+0.4%) but fell in Adelaide (-0.3%), Perth (-0.5%) and Canberra (-0.3%). Perth prices are now down 20.2% from their 2014 high.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%201.png" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
The boost from the election result which removed the threats to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, RBA rate cuts, and positive headlines around the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test and tax cuts have helped provide a bounce in home buyer demand.
This is clearly evident in a rebound in auction clearance rates where July saw the best monthly average clearance rates in Sydney since May 2017 and in Melbourne it was the best since October 2017. See the next two charts.
While this has come on very low volumes its usually the case that improved clearance rates lead a pick up in volumes and this is likely to be seen in the months ahead.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%203.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%203.png" alt="">
Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%204.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%204.png" alt="">
Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
However, while home prices may have bottomed its doubtful that annual price gains are on their way to 10% or so as implied by the past relationship between clearances and prices and the current level of clearances. See the charts above. 
The situation today is very different to 2011 when the RBA first started to cut rates in this interest rate cutting cycle which in turn helped unleash booming conditions in the NSW and Victorian economies and rapid debt growth made easy by somewhat lax bank lending standards against a backdrop of undersupplied property markets all of which fuelled rapid growth in Sydney and Melbourne property prices.
 By contrast today, household debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are much tighter such that a return to rapid growth in interest only and investor loans is most unlikely, the supply of units has surged pushing Sydney’s rental vacancy rate well above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak. 
So we don’t see a return to boom time conditions and expect constrained low single digit price gains through 2020.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/houseprice%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/houseprice%202.png" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
Rising unemployment will be the key to watch. We expect unemployment to drift up to around 5.5% by year end, but a sharper rise could result in forced property sales and another leg down in property prices. This is not our base case but is the key risk in terms of the property outlook.
Much higher unemployment is something the RBA is keen to avoid – in fact it wants unemployment to fall to 4.5% or below – so our view remains for further cash rate reductions in November and February next year taking the cash rate to 0.5%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
 
 
</body></html>

Australian capital city house prices up 0.1% in July, but do not expect a return to boom time conditions: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
Sydney house prices have risen in more than half of the city’s regions in the June quarter, new Domain data shows.
But overall Sydney house and unit price did decline by 0.4 percent.
It was the smallest quarterly fall since December 2017, according to Domain’s June House Price Report. 
<div class="in-content-ad">The median house price dropped to $1,032,338 – back to early 2016 levels while the median unit price has dropped to $688,652, back to mid-2015 levels.</div>
“It’s likely that prices have bottomed out in Sydney recently,” said Domain economist Trent Wiltshire.
 “This is the biggest downturn in property prices since the 1980s …  it looks to be at least close to an end.”
Sydney’s median house prices
<table style="width: 731px;">
<thead><tr>
<td width="87"> </td>
<td width="136">MEDIAN PRICE</td>
<td width="87">QOQ CHANGE</td>
<td width="87">YOY CHANGE</td>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87">Blue Mountains</td>
<td width="136">$650,100</td>
<td width="87">0.29%</td>
<td width="87">-3.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td width="136">$825,000</td>
<td width="87">-1.20%</td>
<td width="87">-12.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Central Coast</td>
<td width="136">$605,000</td>
<td width="87">-0.82%</td>
<td width="87">-6.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">City and East</td>
<td width="136">$2,125,000</td>
<td width="87">-5.87%</td>
<td width="87">-8.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Inner West</td>
<td width="136">$1,448,750</td>
<td width="87">3.48%</td>
<td width="87">-7.72%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Lower North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$2,300,000</td>
<td width="87">4.55%</td>
<td width="87">-4.96%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">North West</td>
<td width="136">$1,170,000</td>
<td width="87">1.74%</td>
<td width="87">-7.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Northern Beaches</td>
<td width="136">$1,610,000</td>
<td width="87">-3.01%</td>
<td width="87">-6.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South</td>
<td width="136">$1,050,000</td>
<td width="87">1.69%</td>
<td width="87">-11.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South West</td>
<td width="136">$671,000</td>
<td width="87">0.15%</td>
<td width="87">-7.54%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Upper North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$1,600,000</td>
<td width="87">1.59%</td>
<td width="87">-3.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">West</td>
<td width="136">$675,000</td>
<td width="87">-1.46%</td>
<td width="87">-6.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4">
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
 
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Wiltshire said the recovery was skewed to higher-priced areas: lower north shore house prices recorded the strongest growth of 4.55% to $2.3 million in the June quarter.
It was followed by the inner west, up 3.48% to $1,448,750.
The upper north shore median increased 1.59 per cent to $1.6 million in the quarter ending in June.
Over the quarter, Melbourne median house prices rose 0.3%.
The best performer was Canberra, who saw their median house price over the quarter jump 1.5%.
It was followed by Hobart whose house prices rose 0.7%.
Capital city median house prices
<table><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="193" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.022826086956521774}'> </td>
<td width="215">Median house price</td>
<td width="136">QoQ</td>
<td width="87">YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sydney</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sydney"}'>$1,032,338</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$1,032,338"}'>-0.4%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.004}'>-9.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Melbourne"}'>Melbourne</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$818,237"}'>$818,237</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.003}'>0.3%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.077}'>-7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Brisbane"}'>Brisbane</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$559,167"}'>$559,167</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.014}'>-1.4%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.018}'>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Adelaide"}'>Adelaide</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$540,473"}'>$540,473</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.001}'>-0.1%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.014}'>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Perth"}'>Perth</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$528,186"}'>$528,186</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.02}'>-2.0%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.054}'>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hobart"}'>Hobart</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$474,423"}'>$474,423</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.007}'>0.7%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.039}'>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Canberra"}'>Canberra</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$741,947"}'>$741,947</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.015}'>1.5%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.001}'>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>Darwin</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$502,521"}'>$502,521</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.023}'>-2.3%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.029}'>-2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Sydney’s median unit prices
Sydney's median unit prices didn't perform as well as houses over the June quarter in the same areas.
The worst performer was the Central Coast, whose 7.37% June quarter change took its year on year change to over 10%.
The worst performer year on year is the Canterbury Bankstown area which saw declines over 16.6%.
<table style="width: 826px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87"> </td>
<td width="136">Median price</td>
<td width="87">QoQ change</td>
<td width="87">YoY change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td width="136">$500,000</td>
<td width="87">-3.10%</td>
<td width="87">-16.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Central Coast</td>
<td width="136">$440,000</td>
<td width="87">-7.37%</td>
<td width="87">-10.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">City and East</td>
<td width="136">$910,000</td>
<td width="87">1.11%</td>
<td width="87">-7.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Inner West</td>
<td width="136">$740,000</td>
<td width="87">2.07%</td>
<td width="87">-5.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Lower North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$852,000</td>
<td width="87">-7.89%</td>
<td width="87">-9.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">North West</td>
<td width="136">$660,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.22%</td>
<td width="87">-9.47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Northern Beaches</td>
<td width="136">$780,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.50%</td>
<td width="87">-11.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South</td>
<td width="136">$640,000</td>
<td width="87">-4.48%</td>
<td width="87">-10.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South West</td>
<td width="136">$438,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.67%</td>
<td width="87">-10.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Upper North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$723,000</td>
<td width="87">0.42%</td>
<td width="87">-6.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">West</td>
<td width="136">$520,000</td>
<td width="87">-5.45%</td>
<td width="87">-11.26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" width="87">
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Across the capitals Melbourne was the only one with an increase in the median unit price, up 2%.
Darwin continued its damaging decline, a further 4.8% to be 10.4% down on the year.
Capital city median unit prices
<table style="width: 631px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="193" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.029}'>City</td>
<td width="215">Median unit price</td>
<td width="136">QoQ</td>
<td width="87">YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sydney"}'>Sydney</td>
<td>$688,652</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$688,652"}'>-0.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.072}'>-7.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Melbourne"}'>Melbourne</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$501,009"}'>$501,009</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.02}'>2.00%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.007}'>-0.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Brisbane"}'>Brisbane</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$368,382"}'>$368,382</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.031}'>-3.10%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.089}'>-8.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Adelaide"}'>Adelaide</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$310,642"}'>$310,642</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.002}'>-0.20%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.006}'>0.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Perth"}'>Perth</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$342,930"}'>$342,930</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.016}'>-1.60%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.077}'>-7.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hobart"}'>Hobart</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$356,751"}'>$356,751</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.064}'>-6.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.015}'>-1.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Canberra"}'>Canberra</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$448,737"}'>$448,737</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.014}'>-1.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.019}'>1.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>Darwin</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$298,438"}'>$298,438</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.048}'>-4.80%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.104}'>-10.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</body></html>

House prices rise in more than half of Sydney’s regions in 2019 June quarter: Domain 

<html><body>
Our base case remains that national capital city property prices will have a top to bottom fall of 15% out to a bottom in 2020 of which they have so far done nearly 10% and that for previous boom time cities of Sydney and Melbourne the top to bottom decline will be around 25% (of which they have so far done nearly 15% and 11% respectively). 
The negatives weighing on the property market remain significant and include tight credit (which will get another boost from mid-year with the start-up of Comprehensive Credit Reporting which will see banks crack down on borrowers with multiple undeclared loans), the ongoing switch from interest only to principle and interest loans, record unit supply still to hit particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, an 80% collapse in foreign demand, fears that negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements will be made less favourable if there is a change of government and falling prices feeding on themselves with FOMO (the fear of missing out) becoming FONGO (the fear of not getting out).
Taken together these are continuing to drive a perfect storm for the Sydney and Melbourne property markets because they saw the strongest gains into 2017 and had become more speculative with a greater involvement by investors. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%201%20.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%201%20.png" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
The slowing in the pace of home price falls (from -1.3% in December to -1.2% in January to -0.9% in February to -0.7% in March to 0.5% in April for the capital cities), along with a bounce in housing finance in February and a pick-up in auction clearance rates from their lows late last year are positive signs and at least suggest that we are not seeing any of the panic/forced selling that some had feared would occur. 
However, the bounce in auction clearance rates looks to be largely seasonal and they remain historically weak, the nearly five year decline in Perth and Darwin property prices has seen several phases where price declines slowed then accelerated again and the start-up of Comprehensive Credit Reporting means that the tightening in lending standards could still have another leg to go, less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements if there is an ALP victory could see renewed pressure on property prices next year and property prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne have been proving to be a bit weaker than we expected.
Implications for interest rates
Ongoing home price falls will depress consumer spending as the wealth effect has now become negative and homeowners are less inclined to allow their savings rate to decline further to compensate for weak wages growth. It’s also a negative for banks and is consistent with our view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
With growth slowing and inflation coming in weaker than expected, rate cuts are likely to come earlier than our previous expectation for cuts in August and November, with the first cut probably coming next week (although we admit that a May rate cut is a close call given its in the midst on an election campaign).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%202.png" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
What will stop the property price falls?
It’s a while off yet but we expect a combination of RBA rate cuts flowing to lower mortgage rates, improved affordability thanks to lower prices, continuing strong population growth, the prospect of slowing new supply and possibly some form of Government support (like a new round of Federal First Home owner grants and/or a reduction in APRA’s minimum 7% mortgage serviceability test for new home loans) to help prices stabilise sometime around next year.
An earlier rate cut in May could bring forward the bottom in house prices as in the last two cycles they bottomed around four months after the first cut, although it is worth noting stronger supply conditions, tighter lending standards, higher debt to income ratios and depressed investor confidence will likely constrain the response of house prices to interest rate changes this time around.
 
Key points: 
<ul type="disc">
<li>Although the rate of decline has slowed further, Australian capital city dwelling prices fell another 0.5% in April according to CoreLogic. This marks 19 months of consecutive price declines since prices peaked in September 2017. This has left prices down 8.4% from a year ago and they have now fallen 9.7% from their September 2017 high which is worse than their GFC decline of 7.6%.</li>
<li>Sydney dwelling prices fell another 0.7% and they have now fallen 14.5% from their July 2017 high, which is their worst fall since the early 1980s recession. Melbourne prices fell another 0.6% and are down 10.9% from their November 2017 high, which is their worst fall in the period since 1980. Perth prices fell another 0.4% and are now down 18.4% from their 2014 high and Darwin prices fell another 1.2% and are down 28.3% from their 2014 high. Prices also fell in Brisbane (-0.4% in April and down 1.9% for their recent high) and Adelaide (-0.1% in April and down 0.7% from their recent high) and even Hobart is now falling with a decline of 0.9%. Canberra was the only capital city to see a gain (+0.4%). </li>
<li>While Sydney and Melbourne have seen the steepest falls since 2017 (because they had the biggest boom between 2012 and 2017), other cities are pretty soft too with Perth and Darwin having been falling for five years now and Brisbane and Adelaide are proving weaker than we had expected despite not having had the prior boom that Sydney and Melbourne and, much earlier, Perth and Darwin had.   </li>
</ul>
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
</body></html>

Australian house prices down again in April with still more to go: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
On the back of increasing levels of supply, Greater Brisbane unit prices recorded their largest fall in 17 years in the December 2018 quarter, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found, this has created a window for buyers to purchase at 2013 prices.
Brisbane unit prices fell 5% over the quarter and 7.9% over the year to $369,882.
Brisbane house prices fell 0.2% over the quarter and 0.1% over the year to $566,058.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: “Greater Brisbane house price growth evaporated by the end of 2018, with prices ultimately flatlining over the quarter and year. This provides further evidence that credit access is not only impacting Sydney and Melbourne, it is now having a marked effect on housing markets that would otherwise be growing.
“A number of factors should provide better foundations for the housing market, as greater job prospects and an improved economic outlook draws residents to the state. Queensland remains a magnet for interstate migrants, which is currently at a 12-year high, and more residents are moving from overseas. Demand is rising, with Domain recording an increase in the number of views per listing.
“Although house price growth has stalled, it is a better outcome than many other Australian capital cities have experienced, with Brisbane proving the fourth best performer, behind Hobart, Adelaide and Canberra.
“A number of dynamics will eventually see Brisbane’s heightened supply of units absorbed. 
“The number of developments under construction, apartment completions and multi-unit building approvals are all shrinking. However, for now the stricter lending environment is stalling a recovery.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Bris.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Greater Brisbane unit prices recorded their largest fall in 17 years: Domain

<html><body>
Unit prices have been holding steadier than houses in Melbourne, just 5.8% below the peak they reached at the beginning of 2018, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found, Melbourne house and unit price falls sped up throughout 2018, although so far the downturn has been shorter and less severe when compared to Sydney.
Melbourne house prices fell 2.1% over the quarter and 8.4% over the year to $833,321.
Melbourne unit prices fell 1.8% over the quarter and 4.3% over the year to $479,306.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: "Restrictions to housing finance have hit Melbourne and Sydney the hardest. However, Melbourne is in better shape than Sydney, as a growing employment sector, lower affordability hurdles and stronger population growth supports the underlying demand for housing.
“Melbourne house prices have now fallen for four consecutive quarters, the last time this occurred was seven years ago. The ongoing falls have resulted in the steepest annual house price drop since Domain records began in 1993. However, it’s worth noting that the downturn follows an extraordinary period of growth, with house prices rising 72.8% in just over five years.
"Houses are 8.4% below the price peak achieved at the end of 2017, with homes now transacting at late-2016 prices.
“Underpinning the strength of units relative to houses is affordability hurdles and lending practices. Factors that have supported demand for housing at the lower end of the price spectrum include a rise in the number of first home buyers, and lending practices designed to reduce exposure to borrowers with a high debt to income ratio.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Melb.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Melbourne unit prices holding steadier than houses: Domain

<html><body>
<div>Moves by banks and their regulators to curb investor lending, combined with a drop in overseas buyers, has seen national capital city house prices decrease 2.9 per cent over the year to $781,787, according to the latest Domain Home Price Report.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The report found unit prices have fallen by 1.4 per cent over the year to $549,163.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the quarter, houses in Hobart and units in Adelaide have been the only market segments to buck the national downward trend. Domain senior research analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said "it’s a development that will no doubt be welcomed by Australia’s first-home buyers - property prices across almost all capitals continue to fall.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"In many markets throughout Australia, gaining entry has become a greater possibility."</div>
<div>
<div>
 <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/b16c0b957ea98f662ab985606/images/e41111b1-d7bd-43d8-b7af-b69c1cabf583.png" width="580" height="386" data-imagetype="External">
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Key findings concerning houses were that Sydney house prices are now at late-2016 levels, while Melbourne house prices haven't fallen as far and are now at 2017 levels.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Canberra house prices increased over the year but were flat over the quarter, similarly Brisbane and Adelaide were also up over the year, but down slightly over the quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart was the standout and continued to grow strongly, recording double-digit annual growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Key findings concerning units were that units in Sydney and Melbourne continued to outperform houses, while in all other capital cities houses outperformed units.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unit prices fell over the September quarter and year across all capital cities, apart from a minor quarterly improvement in Adelaide, and annual growth in Melbourne and Hobart. As a result all capital cities are now under performing relative to last year, except for Perth and Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>National unit prices have continued to weaken, with annual growth declining for two consecutive quarters.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“There are opportunities for buyers in all property cycles — the key is to be ready when opportunities arise,” Dr Nicola Powell concluded.</div>
</body></html>

Sydney house prices down 6.5 percent, double Melbourne's drop: Domain

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact. 
It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.
The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.
The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.
By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.
It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, whether markets are rising or falling.
According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.
It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.
All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.
There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.
CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.
Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.
SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.
Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.
Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.
The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.
The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

House Prices

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

House Prices

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News