Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

House Prices

<html><body>
Throughout 2019, Melbourne's house price have almost recovered what was lost during the slump, according to the latest quarterly report from Domain.
Houses have seen a 5% increase in value with median prices reaching $901,951. Units have seen even stronger growth of 5.6% with median values hovering around $549,701.
Though the year sprung off with deteriorating prices, the rest of 2019 saw growth, with the the final quarter providing the strongest quarterly gain in three years and the largest annual jump in two years.
With just under $6,800 left to regain, it appears that house prices are set for a new record high next quarter. 
However, this recovery remains uneven across the Melbourne as there are substantial price rises concentrated at the upper-end, led by the city, the inner east and inner south. 
Units in Melbourne continue to outperform houses as unit prices produced the strongest quarterly growth since mid-2009, and the biggest annual surge since mid-2010.
Unit prices are currently at a new record high that is 7.5 per cent higher than the previous peak in early 2018. 
Melbourne and Hobart units were the only cities to record a new high. Meanwhile, other cities remain below previous peaks in unit prices. 
Melbourne is the second most unaffordable city for units, with its price being higher than the median house prices in Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Hobart. 
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne's property prices look set for a new record high: Domain

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
With the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting official rates to 0.75% on Tuesday, has been a wave of commentary about the move doing little to help the economy apart from boosting housing prices.
There are two parts to assessing this claim. First, do rate cuts drive up property prices? Second, is that all they do?
Do rate cuts drive up property prices?
Economists have a precise answer to this question, and also a more practical one.
The precise answer is that all assets – stocks, bonds, property, stamps, vintage baseball cards, you name it – can be priced using <a href="https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/samplechapters.pdf" target="_blank">what is known as</a> the stochastic discount factor (SDF).
This says that in pricing an asset you should factor in all the future cash flows the asset will generate (rent or dividends or capital gains) and then translate those returns into today’s money, adjusting for the riskiness of those cash flows.
An easier way to think about how rate cuts might affect property prices – consistent with the asset-pricing approach – goes like this.
People look at how much money they can borrow based on what they can afford to pay back. An interest rate cut boosts their borrowing power.
Even though the major banks have only passed on about half of the Reserve Bank’s latest cut (owner-occupied mortgage rates have been cut by 13-15 basis points), that’s enough to give a household with income of $150,000 about another $12,000 to $14,000 in borrowing power.
They thus spend more and, because there is a limited supply of properties, this pushes prices up. So, yes, lower interest rates do tend to boost property prices.
Is that all rate cuts do?
But boosting property prices is not all that rate cuts do.
Higher prices for new dwellings help developers. They often lead to an increase in construction jobs as developers anticipate better conditions for selling properties. New property construction has a number of other effects, too, such as changing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-01.pdf" target="_blank">the average quality of the rental stock</a> and spurring more retail spending (because those new homes need to be furnished).
Perhaps even more important is the pseudo-psychological effect of existing home owners feeling wealthier when house prices go up. This can lead to increased consumer spending – and this can have a big economic effect, given consumer spending accounts for about 60% of GDP.
This “wealth effect”, rational or not, seems to be real. It is part of the reason the Reserve Bank’s governor, Philip Lowe, appeared to be concerned about Sydney and Melbourne house prices falling in the past couple of years. It is also why federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg is happy to see property prices again on the rise.
Finally, lower interest rates do make business investment cheaper.
Would corporate tax cuts provide a bigger boost to investment? You bet. Are there diminishing returns to rate cuts as the cash rate approaches zero? That’s very likely to be the case.
But would businesses invest more if rates were two percentage points higher? No way. And would business like rates to be higher? I seriously doubt it.
Rate cuts do something to drive down unemployment, drive up consumer prices, and boost investment generally.
Are rate-cut driven prices increases bad?
But they certainly do also drive up residential property prices.
The important question is whether that’s bad or not. The answer to this question is a little murkier.
Let’s start with the fact borrowers should be thinking about how much to borrow.
If they borrow too much and are unable to repay their loans, that’s very bad news for them. Defaulting on a mortgage is a wrenching experience. Most people try hard to avoid that.
That said, sometimes people make poor choices through lack of information, lack of thought or lack of willpower. Occasionally an unscrupulous third party will encourage them to borrow more than they should.
But it’s not in the interest of banks to make too many loans that don’t get repaid. If borrowers are the first line of defence again bad price increases, lenders are the second line of defence.
There is a third line of defence: prudential regulation. The <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/" target="_blank">Australian Prudential Regulation Authority</a> and the <a href="https://asic.gov.au/" target="_blank">Australian Securities and Investments Commission</a> are charged with enforcing “responsible lending laws” and ensuring the animal spirits and (sometimes) bad incentives of borrowers and lenders don’t get out of control.
So property prices increasing a few percent on the back of the rate cuts is unlikely to be problem – though as the Reserve Bank governor is fond of saying, “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24" target="_blank">time will tell</a>”.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124600/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yes-house-prices-will-rise-with-lower-interest-rates-but-thats-not-the-only-effect-124600" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

House prices will rise with lower interest rates, but that’s not the only effect

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year - average capital city home prices have turned up again.
I thought prices would fall further with a 15% top to bottom fall led by around 25% falls in Sydney and Melbourne. But the facts changed from May – with the election removing the threat to negative gearing &amp; the capital gains tax discount, earlier than expected interest rate cuts &amp; a relaxation of APRA’s 7% interest rate test all pushing prices up again. So, where to from here?
Extreme property views
There are basically two extreme views amongst “property experts”. On the one hand, some real estate spruikers still wheel out the old “property will double every seven years” line. On the other hand, property doomsters say it’s hugely overvalued and over-indebted with massive mortgage stress and so a 40% or so crash is inevitable.
The trouble with the former is that implies home price growth of 10.3% pa, so even if wages growth picks up to 3.5% (a big ask!) it implies that the average price to income ratio of Australian housing will rise to around nine times over the next seven years from around six times now and in 14 years’ time it will be 14 times!
The trouble with the doomsters is that they’ve been saying that for 15 years and we’re still waiting for the crash.
In between, first home buyers are wondering why it’s so hard to do what my and my parent’s generation took for granted: be part of the Aussie dream with a quarter acre block.
The reality is it’s far more complicated than these extremes. Here’s seven stylised “facts” regarding Australian property.
First – it’s expensive
This has been the case since early last decade and remains so despite the recent correction in prices:
<ul>
<li>According to the 2019 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices to income is 5.7 times in Australia versus 3.5 in the US and 4.8 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 11.7 times &amp; Melbourne is 9.7 times.</li>
<li>The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents relative to their long-term averages are at the high end of OECD countries.</li>
<li>The surge in prices relative to incomes has seen household debt relative to household income rise from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the high end now.</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%201.jpg" alt="">
These things arguably make residential property Australia’s Achilles heel. But that’s been the case for 15 years or so now.
Second – it’s diverse
While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market”, in reality there is significant divergence between cities. This divergence has been extreme over the last five years with Perth and Darwin seeing large price falls in response to the end of the mining investment boom, as other cities rose.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%202.jpg" alt="">
The divergence is also evident in gross rental yields that range from 8.7% in regional WA units to 3.1% in Sydney houses.
Third – talk of mortgage stress is overstated
Headlines of excessive mortgage stress have been common for over a decade now.
There is no denying housing affordability is poor, household debt is high and some households are suffering significant mortgage stress. But most borrowers appear to be able to service their mortgages.
And despite some seeing negative equity and a significant proportion of borrowers switching from interest only to principle &amp; interest loans (which has seen interest only loans drop from nearly 40% of all loans to 23%) there has been no surge in forced sales and non- performing loans.
Non-performing mortgages have increased but remain low at around 0.9%.
While Australia saw a deterioration in lending standards with the last boom, it was nothing like other countries saw prior to the GFC.
Much of the increase in debt has gone to older, wealthier Australians, who are better able to service their loans.
Low doc loans are trivial in Australia and the proportion of high loan to valuation ratio loans has fallen as has the proportion of interest only loans.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%203.jpg" alt="">
Fourth – it’s been chronically undersupplied
Annual population growth since mid-last decade has averaged 373,000 people compared to 217,000 over the decade to 2005, which requires roughly an extra 75,000 homes per year.
Unfortunately, the supply of dwellings did not keep pace with the population surge (see the next chart) so a massive shortfall built up driving high home prices.
Thanks to the surge in unit supply since 2015 this is now being worked off, but it follows more than a decade of accumulated undersupply which is the main reason why housing has remained relatively expensive in Australia.
Not tax breaks or low rates – all of which exist in other countries with far more affordable housing!
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%204.jpg" alt="">
Fifth – house prices go up and down
After several episodes of price declines ranging from 5 to 10% across various cities over the last 15 years and 15%, 21% and 31% for Sydney, Perth and Darwin respectively in recent years home buyers should be under no illusion that prices only go up.
Sixth – the housing market remains rate sensitive
While it varies from city to city, despite much scepticism recent rate cuts have helped push up the property market again.
Finally – house price crashes are not easy to forecast
The expensive nature of Australian property and associated high debt levels have seen calls for a property crash pumped out repeatedly over the last 15 years.
In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to soaring property prices.
Property crash calls were wheeled out repeatedly after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) with one commentator losing a high-profile bet that prices could fall up to 40%.
In 2010, a US newspaper, The Philadelphia Trumpet, warned that “Los Angelification” (referring to a 40% slump in LA home prices around the GFC) will come to Australia. Similar calls were made a few years ago by a hedge fund researcher and a hedge fund: “The Australian property market is on the verge of blowing up on a spectacular scale."
Over the years these crash calls have often made it on to 60 Minutes and Four Corners.
But our view remains that to get a national housing crash – as opposed to periodic falls in some cities – we need much higher unemployment, much higher interest rates and/or a big oversupply.
But while the risk of recession has increased it remains unlikely, aggressive rate hikes are most unlikely and while property supply still has more upside it’s unlikely to lead to a big oversupply as approvals to build new dwellings are now falling.
As we have seen for years now overvaluation and high debt on their own are not enough to bring on a crash.
So where to now?
The rebound in buyer interest since May has seen auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne rise to around 75% and prices lift nearly 2%, albeit other cities are mixed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/11/house%20price%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/11/house%20price%205.jpg" alt="">
 
This has so far come on low volumes, but they now look to be rising. Our base case is that house price gains will be far more constrained than the 10-15% implied by current auction clearance rates.
Compared to past cycles debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are tighter, the supply of units has surged with more to come and this has already pushed Sydney’s rental vacancy rate above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as economic growth remains soft.
So, we don’t expect to see a return to boom time conditions and see constrained gains through 2020 – eg around 5% or so. There are three key things to watch:
<ul>
<li>The Spring selling season – if auction clearances remain elevated as listing pick up then it will be a positive sign that the pick-up in the property market has legs.</li>
<li>Housing finance commitments – these have bounced but will have to pick up a lot further to get 10-15% price rises.</li>
<li>Unemployment – if it picks up significantly in response to slow economic growth then it will be a big constraint on house prices and could result in another leg down in prices.</li>
</ul>
We don’t see the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets as a barrier to further monetary easing, but it may reduce the need as it turns the wealth effect from negative to positive. And if it continues to gather pace then expect a tightening of the screws again from bank regulators.
Implications for investors
Over long periods of time residential property provides a similar return to shares (at around 11% pa) but it offers good diversification as it performs well at different times to shares so it has a role to play in investors’ portfolios.
The pull back in prices in several cities in the last few years provides opportunities for investors, but just bear in mind that rental yields remain relatively low in Sydney and Melbourne and be wary of areas where there is still a lot of new units to hit.
There is probably better value to be found in regional centres and Perth, and Brisbane looks attractive in offering reasonable yields, a low vacancy rate and improving population growth.
Key points
<ul>
<li>
The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists &amp; doomsters portray it to be.
</li>
<li>
Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated &amp; it’s been undersupplied.
</li>
<li>
The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but the upswing is likely to be constrained.
</li>
</ul>
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

The seven things you need to know about the Australian property market: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Australian capital city dwelling prices rose 0.1% in July according to CoreLogic. After a 10.2% decline over 22 months (which was worse than the decline seen in the GFC), this is their first rise since September 2017. Dwelling prices are still down 7.3% from a year ago.
Sydney dwelling prices rose 0.2% which their second gain in a row and Melbourne prices also rose 0.2% which is also their second gain in a row.
Prices also rose in Brisbane (+0.2%), Hobart (+0.3%) and Darwin (+0.4%) but fell in Adelaide (-0.3%), Perth (-0.5%) and Canberra (-0.3%). Perth prices are now down 20.2% from their 2014 high.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%201.png" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
The boost from the election result which removed the threats to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, RBA rate cuts, and positive headlines around the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test and tax cuts have helped provide a bounce in home buyer demand.
This is clearly evident in a rebound in auction clearance rates where July saw the best monthly average clearance rates in Sydney since May 2017 and in Melbourne it was the best since October 2017. See the next two charts.
While this has come on very low volumes its usually the case that improved clearance rates lead a pick up in volumes and this is likely to be seen in the months ahead.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%203.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%203.png" alt="">
Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%204.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/house%20price%204.png" alt="">
Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
However, while home prices may have bottomed its doubtful that annual price gains are on their way to 10% or so as implied by the past relationship between clearances and prices and the current level of clearances. See the charts above. 
The situation today is very different to 2011 when the RBA first started to cut rates in this interest rate cutting cycle which in turn helped unleash booming conditions in the NSW and Victorian economies and rapid debt growth made easy by somewhat lax bank lending standards against a backdrop of undersupplied property markets all of which fuelled rapid growth in Sydney and Melbourne property prices.
 By contrast today, household debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are much tighter such that a return to rapid growth in interest only and investor loans is most unlikely, the supply of units has surged pushing Sydney’s rental vacancy rate well above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak. 
So we don’t see a return to boom time conditions and expect constrained low single digit price gains through 2020.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/1/houseprice%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/1/houseprice%202.png" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
Rising unemployment will be the key to watch. We expect unemployment to drift up to around 5.5% by year end, but a sharper rise could result in forced property sales and another leg down in property prices. This is not our base case but is the key risk in terms of the property outlook.
Much higher unemployment is something the RBA is keen to avoid – in fact it wants unemployment to fall to 4.5% or below – so our view remains for further cash rate reductions in November and February next year taking the cash rate to 0.5%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
 
 
</body></html>

Australian capital city house prices up 0.1% in July, but do not expect a return to boom time conditions: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
Sydney house prices have risen in more than half of the city’s regions in the June quarter, new Domain data shows.
But overall Sydney house and unit price did decline by 0.4 percent.
It was the smallest quarterly fall since December 2017, according to Domain’s June House Price Report. 
<div class="in-content-ad">The median house price dropped to $1,032,338 – back to early 2016 levels while the median unit price has dropped to $688,652, back to mid-2015 levels.</div>
“It’s likely that prices have bottomed out in Sydney recently,” said Domain economist Trent Wiltshire.
 “This is the biggest downturn in property prices since the 1980s …  it looks to be at least close to an end.”
Sydney’s median house prices
<table style="width: 731px;">
<thead><tr>
<td width="87"> </td>
<td width="136">MEDIAN PRICE</td>
<td width="87">QOQ CHANGE</td>
<td width="87">YOY CHANGE</td>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87">Blue Mountains</td>
<td width="136">$650,100</td>
<td width="87">0.29%</td>
<td width="87">-3.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td width="136">$825,000</td>
<td width="87">-1.20%</td>
<td width="87">-12.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Central Coast</td>
<td width="136">$605,000</td>
<td width="87">-0.82%</td>
<td width="87">-6.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">City and East</td>
<td width="136">$2,125,000</td>
<td width="87">-5.87%</td>
<td width="87">-8.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Inner West</td>
<td width="136">$1,448,750</td>
<td width="87">3.48%</td>
<td width="87">-7.72%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Lower North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$2,300,000</td>
<td width="87">4.55%</td>
<td width="87">-4.96%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">North West</td>
<td width="136">$1,170,000</td>
<td width="87">1.74%</td>
<td width="87">-7.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Northern Beaches</td>
<td width="136">$1,610,000</td>
<td width="87">-3.01%</td>
<td width="87">-6.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South</td>
<td width="136">$1,050,000</td>
<td width="87">1.69%</td>
<td width="87">-11.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South West</td>
<td width="136">$671,000</td>
<td width="87">0.15%</td>
<td width="87">-7.54%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Upper North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$1,600,000</td>
<td width="87">1.59%</td>
<td width="87">-3.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">West</td>
<td width="136">$675,000</td>
<td width="87">-1.46%</td>
<td width="87">-6.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4">
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
 
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Wiltshire said the recovery was skewed to higher-priced areas: lower north shore house prices recorded the strongest growth of 4.55% to $2.3 million in the June quarter.
It was followed by the inner west, up 3.48% to $1,448,750.
The upper north shore median increased 1.59 per cent to $1.6 million in the quarter ending in June.
Over the quarter, Melbourne median house prices rose 0.3%.
The best performer was Canberra, who saw their median house price over the quarter jump 1.5%.
It was followed by Hobart whose house prices rose 0.7%.
Capital city median house prices
<table><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="193" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.022826086956521774}'> </td>
<td width="215">Median house price</td>
<td width="136">QoQ</td>
<td width="87">YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sydney</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sydney"}'>$1,032,338</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$1,032,338"}'>-0.4%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.004}'>-9.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Melbourne"}'>Melbourne</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$818,237"}'>$818,237</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.003}'>0.3%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.077}'>-7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Brisbane"}'>Brisbane</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$559,167"}'>$559,167</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.014}'>-1.4%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.018}'>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Adelaide"}'>Adelaide</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$540,473"}'>$540,473</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.001}'>-0.1%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.014}'>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Perth"}'>Perth</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$528,186"}'>$528,186</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.02}'>-2.0%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.054}'>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hobart"}'>Hobart</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$474,423"}'>$474,423</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.007}'>0.7%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.039}'>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Canberra"}'>Canberra</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$741,947"}'>$741,947</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.015}'>1.5%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.001}'>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>Darwin</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$502,521"}'>$502,521</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.023}'>-2.3%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.029}'>-2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Sydney’s median unit prices
Sydney's median unit prices didn't perform as well as houses over the June quarter in the same areas.
The worst performer was the Central Coast, whose 7.37% June quarter change took its year on year change to over 10%.
The worst performer year on year is the Canterbury Bankstown area which saw declines over 16.6%.
<table style="width: 826px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87"> </td>
<td width="136">Median price</td>
<td width="87">QoQ change</td>
<td width="87">YoY change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td width="136">$500,000</td>
<td width="87">-3.10%</td>
<td width="87">-16.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Central Coast</td>
<td width="136">$440,000</td>
<td width="87">-7.37%</td>
<td width="87">-10.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">City and East</td>
<td width="136">$910,000</td>
<td width="87">1.11%</td>
<td width="87">-7.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Inner West</td>
<td width="136">$740,000</td>
<td width="87">2.07%</td>
<td width="87">-5.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Lower North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$852,000</td>
<td width="87">-7.89%</td>
<td width="87">-9.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">North West</td>
<td width="136">$660,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.22%</td>
<td width="87">-9.47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Northern Beaches</td>
<td width="136">$780,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.50%</td>
<td width="87">-11.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South</td>
<td width="136">$640,000</td>
<td width="87">-4.48%</td>
<td width="87">-10.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">South West</td>
<td width="136">$438,000</td>
<td width="87">-2.67%</td>
<td width="87">-10.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">Upper North Shore</td>
<td width="136">$723,000</td>
<td width="87">0.42%</td>
<td width="87">-6.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">West</td>
<td width="136">$520,000</td>
<td width="87">-5.45%</td>
<td width="87">-11.26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" width="87">
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Across the capitals Melbourne was the only one with an increase in the median unit price, up 2%.
Darwin continued its damaging decline, a further 4.8% to be 10.4% down on the year.
Capital city median unit prices
<table style="width: 631px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="193" data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.029}'>City</td>
<td width="215">Median unit price</td>
<td width="136">QoQ</td>
<td width="87">YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sydney"}'>Sydney</td>
<td>$688,652</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$688,652"}'>-0.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.072}'>-7.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Melbourne"}'>Melbourne</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$501,009"}'>$501,009</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.02}'>2.00%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.007}'>-0.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Brisbane"}'>Brisbane</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$368,382"}'>$368,382</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.031}'>-3.10%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.089}'>-8.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Adelaide"}'>Adelaide</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$310,642"}'>$310,642</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.002}'>-0.20%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.006}'>0.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Perth"}'>Perth</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$342,930"}'>$342,930</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.016}'>-1.60%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.077}'>-7.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hobart"}'>Hobart</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$356,751"}'>$356,751</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.064}'>-6.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.015}'>-1.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Canberra"}'>Canberra</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$448,737"}'>$448,737</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.014}'>-1.40%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.019}'>1.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>Darwin</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$298,438"}'>$298,438</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.048}'>-4.80%</td>
<td data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.104}'>-10.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Darwin"}'>
Source: Domain House Price Report, June Quarter 2019
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</body></html>

House prices rise in more than half of Sydney’s regions in 2019 June quarter: Domain 

<html><body>
Our base case remains that national capital city property prices will have a top to bottom fall of 15% out to a bottom in 2020 of which they have so far done nearly 10% and that for previous boom time cities of Sydney and Melbourne the top to bottom decline will be around 25% (of which they have so far done nearly 15% and 11% respectively). 
The negatives weighing on the property market remain significant and include tight credit (which will get another boost from mid-year with the start-up of Comprehensive Credit Reporting which will see banks crack down on borrowers with multiple undeclared loans), the ongoing switch from interest only to principle and interest loans, record unit supply still to hit particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, an 80% collapse in foreign demand, fears that negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements will be made less favourable if there is a change of government and falling prices feeding on themselves with FOMO (the fear of missing out) becoming FONGO (the fear of not getting out).
Taken together these are continuing to drive a perfect storm for the Sydney and Melbourne property markets because they saw the strongest gains into 2017 and had become more speculative with a greater involvement by investors. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%201%20.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%201%20.png" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
The slowing in the pace of home price falls (from -1.3% in December to -1.2% in January to -0.9% in February to -0.7% in March to 0.5% in April for the capital cities), along with a bounce in housing finance in February and a pick-up in auction clearance rates from their lows late last year are positive signs and at least suggest that we are not seeing any of the panic/forced selling that some had feared would occur. 
However, the bounce in auction clearance rates looks to be largely seasonal and they remain historically weak, the nearly five year decline in Perth and Darwin property prices has seen several phases where price declines slowed then accelerated again and the start-up of Comprehensive Credit Reporting means that the tightening in lending standards could still have another leg to go, less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements if there is an ALP victory could see renewed pressure on property prices next year and property prices outside of Sydney and Melbourne have been proving to be a bit weaker than we expected.
Implications for interest rates
Ongoing home price falls will depress consumer spending as the wealth effect has now become negative and homeowners are less inclined to allow their savings rate to decline further to compensate for weak wages growth. It’s also a negative for banks and is consistent with our view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
With growth slowing and inflation coming in weaker than expected, rate cuts are likely to come earlier than our previous expectation for cuts in August and November, with the first cut probably coming next week (although we admit that a May rate cut is a close call given its in the midst on an election campaign).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/1/shane%20oliver%202.png" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
What will stop the property price falls?
It’s a while off yet but we expect a combination of RBA rate cuts flowing to lower mortgage rates, improved affordability thanks to lower prices, continuing strong population growth, the prospect of slowing new supply and possibly some form of Government support (like a new round of Federal First Home owner grants and/or a reduction in APRA’s minimum 7% mortgage serviceability test for new home loans) to help prices stabilise sometime around next year.
An earlier rate cut in May could bring forward the bottom in house prices as in the last two cycles they bottomed around four months after the first cut, although it is worth noting stronger supply conditions, tighter lending standards, higher debt to income ratios and depressed investor confidence will likely constrain the response of house prices to interest rate changes this time around.
 
Key points: 
<ul type="disc">
<li>Although the rate of decline has slowed further, Australian capital city dwelling prices fell another 0.5% in April according to CoreLogic. This marks 19 months of consecutive price declines since prices peaked in September 2017. This has left prices down 8.4% from a year ago and they have now fallen 9.7% from their September 2017 high which is worse than their GFC decline of 7.6%.</li>
<li>Sydney dwelling prices fell another 0.7% and they have now fallen 14.5% from their July 2017 high, which is their worst fall since the early 1980s recession. Melbourne prices fell another 0.6% and are down 10.9% from their November 2017 high, which is their worst fall in the period since 1980. Perth prices fell another 0.4% and are now down 18.4% from their 2014 high and Darwin prices fell another 1.2% and are down 28.3% from their 2014 high. Prices also fell in Brisbane (-0.4% in April and down 1.9% for their recent high) and Adelaide (-0.1% in April and down 0.7% from their recent high) and even Hobart is now falling with a decline of 0.9%. Canberra was the only capital city to see a gain (+0.4%). </li>
<li>While Sydney and Melbourne have seen the steepest falls since 2017 (because they had the biggest boom between 2012 and 2017), other cities are pretty soft too with Perth and Darwin having been falling for five years now and Brisbane and Adelaide are proving weaker than we had expected despite not having had the prior boom that Sydney and Melbourne and, much earlier, Perth and Darwin had.   </li>
</ul>
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
</body></html>

Australian house prices down again in April with still more to go: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
On the back of increasing levels of supply, Greater Brisbane unit prices recorded their largest fall in 17 years in the December 2018 quarter, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found, this has created a window for buyers to purchase at 2013 prices.
Brisbane unit prices fell 5% over the quarter and 7.9% over the year to $369,882.
Brisbane house prices fell 0.2% over the quarter and 0.1% over the year to $566,058.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: “Greater Brisbane house price growth evaporated by the end of 2018, with prices ultimately flatlining over the quarter and year. This provides further evidence that credit access is not only impacting Sydney and Melbourne, it is now having a marked effect on housing markets that would otherwise be growing.
“A number of factors should provide better foundations for the housing market, as greater job prospects and an improved economic outlook draws residents to the state. Queensland remains a magnet for interstate migrants, which is currently at a 12-year high, and more residents are moving from overseas. Demand is rising, with Domain recording an increase in the number of views per listing.
“Although house price growth has stalled, it is a better outcome than many other Australian capital cities have experienced, with Brisbane proving the fourth best performer, behind Hobart, Adelaide and Canberra.
“A number of dynamics will eventually see Brisbane’s heightened supply of units absorbed. 
“The number of developments under construction, apartment completions and multi-unit building approvals are all shrinking. However, for now the stricter lending environment is stalling a recovery.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Bris.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Greater Brisbane unit prices recorded their largest fall in 17 years: Domain

<html><body>
Unit prices have been holding steadier than houses in Melbourne, just 5.8% below the peak they reached at the beginning of 2018, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found, Melbourne house and unit price falls sped up throughout 2018, although so far the downturn has been shorter and less severe when compared to Sydney.
Melbourne house prices fell 2.1% over the quarter and 8.4% over the year to $833,321.
Melbourne unit prices fell 1.8% over the quarter and 4.3% over the year to $479,306.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: "Restrictions to housing finance have hit Melbourne and Sydney the hardest. However, Melbourne is in better shape than Sydney, as a growing employment sector, lower affordability hurdles and stronger population growth supports the underlying demand for housing.
“Melbourne house prices have now fallen for four consecutive quarters, the last time this occurred was seven years ago. The ongoing falls have resulted in the steepest annual house price drop since Domain records began in 1993. However, it’s worth noting that the downturn follows an extraordinary period of growth, with house prices rising 72.8% in just over five years.
"Houses are 8.4% below the price peak achieved at the end of 2017, with homes now transacting at late-2016 prices.
“Underpinning the strength of units relative to houses is affordability hurdles and lending practices. Factors that have supported demand for housing at the lower end of the price spectrum include a rise in the number of first home buyers, and lending practices designed to reduce exposure to borrowers with a high debt to income ratio.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Melb.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Melbourne unit prices holding steadier than houses: Domain

<html><body>
<div>Moves by banks and their regulators to curb investor lending, combined with a drop in overseas buyers, has seen national capital city house prices decrease 2.9 per cent over the year to $781,787, according to the latest Domain Home Price Report.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The report found unit prices have fallen by 1.4 per cent over the year to $549,163.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the quarter, houses in Hobart and units in Adelaide have been the only market segments to buck the national downward trend. Domain senior research analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said "it’s a development that will no doubt be welcomed by Australia’s first-home buyers - property prices across almost all capitals continue to fall.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"In many markets throughout Australia, gaining entry has become a greater possibility."</div>
<div>
<div>
 <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/b16c0b957ea98f662ab985606/images/e41111b1-d7bd-43d8-b7af-b69c1cabf583.png" width="580" height="386" data-imagetype="External">
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Key findings concerning houses were that Sydney house prices are now at late-2016 levels, while Melbourne house prices haven't fallen as far and are now at 2017 levels.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Canberra house prices increased over the year but were flat over the quarter, similarly Brisbane and Adelaide were also up over the year, but down slightly over the quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart was the standout and continued to grow strongly, recording double-digit annual growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Key findings concerning units were that units in Sydney and Melbourne continued to outperform houses, while in all other capital cities houses outperformed units.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unit prices fell over the September quarter and year across all capital cities, apart from a minor quarterly improvement in Adelaide, and annual growth in Melbourne and Hobart. As a result all capital cities are now under performing relative to last year, except for Perth and Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>National unit prices have continued to weaken, with annual growth declining for two consecutive quarters.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“There are opportunities for buyers in all property cycles — the key is to be ready when opportunities arise,” Dr Nicola Powell concluded.</div>
</body></html>

Sydney house prices down 6.5 percent, double Melbourne's drop: Domain

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact. 
It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.
The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.
The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.
By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.
It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, whether markets are rising or falling.
According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.
It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.
All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.
There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.
CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.
Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.
SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.
Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.
Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.
The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.
The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

House Prices

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

House Prices

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News