Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

House Prices

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Martin North, the founder at Digital Financial Analytics has declined to take up the bet proposed by economist Stephen Koukoulas over his 45 percent house price fall forecast possibility.
<a href="/news/45-percent-housing-price-collapse-was-least-likely-scenario-martin-norths-60-minutes-postscript">The forecast</a> was aired on Sunday night's 60 Minutes.
Koukoulas, possibly channelling Rory Robertson's infamous bet with Steve Keen, <a href="/news/stephen-koukoulas-challenges-dfas-martin-north-over-45-percent-property-price-collapse-forecast">made the offer of a bet to North yesterday</a>. 
North quickly advised he's not a betting man, "<a href="http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/why-i-am-not-betting-with-the-kouk/" target="_blank">ever</a>."
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/18/north2.jpg" alt=""> North is a data scientist.
Although heavily edited on the Channel 9 show, North contemplated house prices falling by up to 45 percent given one scary scenario.
Koukoulas, noting it was gripping viewing and a quite fantastic story, suggested forecasts without any skin in the game are often compromised.
"It is easy to construct a headline grabbing forecast for a significant move in markets, including house prices for example, but when they fade into oblivion, there are no implications for the forecaster.
"Forecasts really only has validity if the forecaster has an interest in the forecast being correct.
"In other words, would the forecaster really make that forecast if they put their money where their mouth is?
"To that end, I would like to offer you the following wager:
"I will offer 6 to 1 ($15,000 to $2,500) that Sydney or Melbourne or national wide house prices will not fall by more than 35 per cent from their peak at any stage before and up to the December quarter 2021."
He suggested the measure be based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Indexes, Eight Capital Cities, Catalogue No. 6416.0.
"I am offering very generous odds (6 to 1 which is above your 5 to 1 probability)," he suggested.
Outspoken economist and consistent housing bubble denier Rory Robertson bet Steve Keen in 2008.
In 2008, Keen said house prices would fall 40 percent once the financial crisis had "washed through the system".
In November 2009, he walked up Mount Kosciuszko wearing a T-shirt that said: "I was hopelessly wrong on house prices!" after losing the bet with Macquarie's Rory Robertson.
Keen kept up <a href="/expert-insights/investing/house-prices-will-fall-in-a-slow-bleed-fashion-steve-keen">his abridged forecast</a> for some time, saying the cash splurge undertaken by the Rudd-Swan government could never have been anticipated.
Robertson has retired, but <a href="/expert-insights/investing/no-such-thing-as-an-australian-housing-bubble-rory-robertson">long argued against the doomsayers</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Martin North declines to take up 6 to 1 odds bet from The Kouk on house price collapse possibility

<html><body>
<div>
My open letter and offer to DFA’s Martin North – Skin in the game on house prices I have sent this to Martin North, founding Principal, Digital Financial Analytics.
----------------------------------------------------------
Dear Martin Congratulations on your cameo on the TV program 60 Minutes. It was gripping viewing and a quite fantastic story. I note with a huge amount of interest your <a href="/news/45-percent-housing-price-collapse-was-least-likely-scenario-martin-norths-60-minutes-postscript">forecast for property prices to fall by “40 to 45 per cent”.</a>
It is a big call and certainly grabbed the attention of many in the public.
I note also that on your blog, you suggest the quote which included that forecast was not given the context you attached to it, namely, you rated it “only a 20 per cent chance” and that the 40 to 45 per cent price fall would be “over 3 years or so”.
That context is important.
Over the many years I have been making forecasts for the economy and markets and seeing others do the same, I find that forecasts without any skin in the game are often compromised. It is easy to construct a headline grabbing forecast for a significant move in markets, including house prices for example, but when they fade into oblivion, there are no implications for the forecaster. Forecasts really only has validity if the forecaster has an interest in the forecast being correct.
In other words, would the forecaster really make that forecast if they put their money where their mouth is?
To that end, I would like to offer you the following wager:
I will offer 6 to 1 ($15,000 to $2,500) that Sydney or Melbourne or national wide house prices will not fall by more than 35 per cent from their peak at any stage before and up to the December quarter 2021. The measure will be based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Indexes, Eight Capital Cities, Catalogue No. 6416.0.
This means that if, at any stage the price index for any of Sydney, Melbourne or the aggregate eight capital cities prices is down 35.0 per cent or more, I will give you $15,000 cash. Conversely, if by the time the December quarter 2021 data are published and the peak to trough decline is 34.9 per cent or less in Sydney, Melbourne or the eight capital cities, you have to give me $2,500.
How is that for generous and a wonderful chance to leverage your forecast into some cold hard cash?
Not only am I offering very generous odds (6 to 1 which is above your 5 to 1 probability), but I am tapering your forecast by a massive 5 to 10 per cent from the 40 to 45 per cent fall you were forecasting on the 60 Minutes program (prices only need to fall 35 per cent) and I am offering three possible markets for that to occur (either Sydney, Melbourne or the eight capital cities measure) and for the peak to trough being around 4 years, not the 3 years you suggest.
As an additional bet over and above that offering, I will offer 2 to 1 ($20,000 to $10,000) that at no stage from the peak in prices and the December quarter 2021, Sydney or Melbourne or national wide prices drop more than 22.5 per cent. That is a very generous 2 to 1 for a fall of just half of your forecast decline. If at any stage dwelling prices fall by 22.5 per cent or more, you collect $20,000, if they don’t you pay me $10,000.
How is that for amazingly generous odds and for you to have a great return even if you are half right?
The June quarter 2018 residential price series is released this week (18 September 2018) which will not change my offer but will add a little bit more information on the extent of the current price down turn.
This offer is open until 5.00pm, Canberra time, Friday 28 September 2018.
I look forward to hearing from you.
I will make the details of this offer and your response to it public as an additional part of establishing our credibility in the all important forecasting space.
Kind regards
Stephen Koukoulas
</div>
Click here to read the <a href="https://thekouk.com/item/631-my-open-letter-and-offer-to-dfa-s-martin-north-skin-in-the-game-on-house-prices" target="_blank">Koukoulas blog post.</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Stephen Koukoulas challenges DFA's Martin North over 45 percent property price collapse forecast

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The largest regulatory credit crunch in 30 years will cause a further slide in property values, Endeavour Equity Strategy said in a detailed 30-page report.
Sydney and Melbourne house prices could fall by 15 to 20% in a repeat of the late 1980s and '90s, the equity research firm suggested citing evidence that about 40% of all mortgages were "non-prime."
It was based on the level of borrower's income relative to debts.
Endeavour suggested the crackdown on the use of measures that understated borrower expenses, and overstated their borrowing capacity, would reduce loan values by up to 30%.
"Our base case suggests expense ratios will increase sharply, serviceability ratios will decrease proportionately, and loan sizes and property prices will suffer in the order of 15 to 20% in real terms," the report said.
It written by Endeavour's Douglas Orr, and circulated to fund manager clients with a report appearing in The Australian Financial Review.
A fall in house prices would lead to a decline in building activity resulting in a "modest increase" in arrears as incomes tied to the sector fall.
"Lower house prices would reduce the ability for stressed borrowers to trade out or finance," the report said.
Endeavour called on the prudential regulator to force the banks to disclose metrics such as "debt serviceability to income ratios" and said the "commercially conflicted" Household Expenditure Measure, or HEM, used to assess borrower expenses boosted serviceability by 15% to 20%.
"Mandatory disclosure of serviceability metrics would achieve this and offset real concerns that the current regime allows banks to 'commission their own risk goal posts' – by relying on HEM," the report said.
Endeavour Equity Strategy was founded 15 years ago by Douglas Orr, a former ABN AMRO research analyst. 
"We see credit growth over the coming 12 to 18 months as likely flat to negative, margins under pressure, heightened legal risks and bad debts set to increase as equity turns negative for a significant portion of leveraged home owners and investors."
The report said a sample of 420 Westpac mortgages, made public as part of the Hayne royal commission, supported its prior view that 40% of all outstanding mortgage debt was "non-prime".
This was based on the "internationally accepted" measure of "non-prime" being a mortgage in which more than 40% of income was being used to service interest payments on debt.
"Non-prime mortgages areas have default rates three to five times higher in a downturn," Orr told AFR.
The Endeavour report described the banks' lending buffers as "illusory" because the HEM understated expenses for most households, and therefore overstated how much income borrowers had available to service debt even after a buffer was factored in.
The Westpac loan sample also showed the extensive use of the HEM to assess borrower expenses. In that loan sample, 97 out of the 100 loans originated by mortgage broker RAMS relied on the HEM, while 86% of Westpac's loans relied on the measure.
A more "realistic" assumption around living expenses would substantially reduce the funds available to service a loan to a household on $150,000 of annual income from $76,000 to $56,000.
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Largest regulatory credit crunch in 30 years could trigger 20% price fall

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Jensen, a suburb in the City of Townsville, has witnessed one of Queensland's biggest stock increases.
Investar suggests its sale stock has grown by 183%, from 18 houses this time last year to its current 51 offerings. 
It is followed by Logan Reserve with 159% growth and Bahrs Scrub with 135% growth.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/5/qld%20biggest%20stock.jpg" alt="">
A Jensen four bedroom house was sold at $395,000 in March. 
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-jensen-126740902" target="_blank">The 18 Power Court</a> (pictured above)<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-jensen-126740902" target="_blank"> </a>home has four bedrooms, spacious kitchen, separate lounge and large patio.
On a 4016 square metre block, it is only a walking distance to both Primary and Secondary Schools, childcare centres, and minutes to a variety of shops including Woolworths, Coles, and Medical Centre.
Another offering currently on the market is a Mount Kulburn Drive four bedroom house priced at high $500,000's negotiable (pictured below).
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-jensen-127190650">Set in the Gated 'Sea View Park' Estate</a>, the 32/20 Mount Kulburn Drive home comes with four bedrooms, open plan living/dining/kitchen, and deck with views. 
It also comes with pool Area that features a fully self-contained pool house / granny-flat.
It is only 25 mins to CBD.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/6/main.jpg" alt="">
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Jensen sees Queensland's biggest stock increase in housing

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GUEST OBSERVER
People have been spending more in New South Wales in recent years, followed by Victoria, South Australia, Queensland and Western Australia, according to a new report. And while real household spending has climbed by 14% in NSW between 2009-10 and 2015-16, it only rose by 4% in WA over the same period.
While spending soared, the price of goods also rose over the same period. The consumer price index (CPI) in Sydney rose by 16.4% - again the highest among all capital cities - followed by Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth (15.1%), and Adelaide.
But the preceding six-year period tells a very different story. Between 2003-04 and 2009-10, growth in real household spending spiked at 25% in WA and Queensland, but other population centres experienced much slower spending growth.
These state and territory differences reflect the workings of a “two-speed economy”, where people’s spending levels are more sensitive to the ups and downs of the economic cycle in the resource-rich states of WA and Queensland.
The report compares prices and spending across Australian states and capital cities, drawing on a range of data sources.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/chart1.jpg" alt="">
What drives cost of living in the most and least expensive cities?
There’s also similarly wide disparities in cost-of-living patterns across our major capital cities. Sydney ranks as the most expensive, followed by Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
Perth’s ranking jars against the popular perception that it is one of the most expensive cities in Australia.
Sydney’s ranking as the most expensive city is mainly driven by increases in housing and education costs, which have risen by 5.7% and 5%, respectively, between 1995 and 2017.
Housing makes up one-quarter of households’ spending – the dominant share. So it’s no wonder that rises in housing prices in Sydney are so keenly felt.
Price increases have been much slower in Perth relative to other capital cities, in the areas of food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport and communication. Growth in wages has outpaced the growth in prices of goods in WA, more than in any other state and territory over the past 15 years.
Financial stress acute for some in WA
While people in WA might be spending less, there are still segments of the population that are vulnerable to intense cost-of-living pressures.
It’s clear that households in severe financial hardship are having to divert increasing shares of their household budgets to meet housing needs and utility costs. We define households in severe financial hardship as those who have had to seek financial assistance from family, friends or welfare institutions and those that could not eat or heat due to money shortages in the last year. During 2015-16, these households diverted around 39% of their budget to housing alone. This was higher than the 25% typical WA household spend on housing.
In order to spend more on housing, households in severe financial hardship are cutting back on other discretionary spending. These households are trading off transport and health spending to meet housing needs.
We found the cutback on transport spending becomes more prominent over time. During 2015-16, the budget share that stressed households diverted towards transport was only 4%, compared with 11% for a typical WA household.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/chart2.jpg" alt="">
Housing costs comprise an even bigger share for WA households seeking financial counselling (around half), than the broader group of households in severe financial hardship (39%). For households seeking financial counselling, the size of a mortgage is likely to be the reason they are in financial trouble.
WA households seeking financial counselling spend on average well over half (55%) of their weekly budget on housing alone (versus 44% spent by the renters). Housing costs are clearly the largest cost and biggest risk factor for financial hardship, well ahead of food (18%), transport (10%) and utilities (5.5%).
Households who sought financial counselling spend even less of their budget shares on health (3.6%) than the broad group of households in severe financial hardship (4%).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/chart3.jpg" alt="">
Overall, the typical WA household has continued to fare reasonably well in recent years, with incomes rising much faster than living costs. Yet the same is clearly not true for vulnerable groups within our community.
Those on low incomes have struggled in recent years to keep up with the cost of living. The cost of housing has emerged as the greatest single living cost for most Australian households and the most critical factor in the risk of financial hardship, poverty and inequality within our community.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88168/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Policy makers need to tackle the vexed issue of housing affordability if they wish to have an impact on poverty and financial resilience and ensure fewer vulnerable members of our community are left behind.
Rachel Ong, Deputy Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University.
Alan Duncan, Director, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy, Curtin University.
Chris Twomey, Senior Industry Fellow, Curtin University.
Ken Leong, Researcher, Curtin University.
Silvia Salazar, Research fellow, Curtin University.
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-the-most-expensive-capital-in-australia-perth-comes-in-fifth-new-report-88168" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Sydney the most expensive capital in Australia, Perth comes in fifth: new report

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A group of high school student have found out that you may be able to find a more affordable home on a street with a silly name.
The ABC reported the high school girls from Sacred Heart College in Geelong identified 27 streets in Victoria with silly names, including Butt Street, Wanke Road and Fanny Street.
Adam Cole, the school's head of science, guided the research.
He told ABC Radio Melbourne they looked at them on Google maps and found two adjacent streets with relatively normal names.
The study found prices on streets with silly names were significantly lower than houses on nearby streets.
The girls analysed more than 4,500 house sales on the streets over the past 47 years, working with staff from the ABS, the University of Sydney and a Melbourne real estate agent.
They found prices were around 20 percent lower on silly named streets. That equated to around $140,000 saving on a median-priced Melbourne house.
Following their research, the group surveyed adults about their feelings toward silly street names.
Of the 323 adults surveyed, a third said they would not be happy living in a street with a name like Beaver Street, Willys Avenue or Grogan Court.
A three bedroom home on <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-keilor+downs-125595462" target="_blank">Willys Avenue</a> (above), recently sold for $500,000.
Adam Cole told the ABC it was likely this affected the supply-and-demand equation for properties on those streets.
"We think that there is a proportion of people that would not be comfortable living in those streets, so they don't compete for those properties and that would drive prices down," he said.
"We think it's probably got to do with a proportion of people being embarrassed by the address when they have to give it out."
He said that the silly name effect was more prevalent in the capital city suburbs than in regional areas, suggesting it was probably because there is more supply and choice in Melbourne.
The price discrepancy was also greater in lower-priced properties than more expensive ones.
 
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High school student study finds prices 20 percent lower on streets with silly names

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Banning foreign property speculators has been laid out in New Zealand Labour's 100-day plan, which meant legislation is likely to be passed before Christmas.
The ban will trigger higher interest in Australian property by wealthy buyers from China, the USA and Europe.
<div id="story-description">
New Zealand Prime Minister-elect Jacinda Ardern says she wants to ban overseas buyers from purchasing existing homes as prices grow more unaffordable for local residents.
</div>
The rise in New Zealand house prices over recent years has been fuelled by strong immigration, low interest rates and limited housing supplies.
“We have agreed on banning the purchase of existing homes by foreign buyers,” she said, specifying that the new rules only applied to non-residents.
They also have plans around farmland and other critical infrastructure, she added.
Anti-immigration campaigner Winston Peters, whose support was crucial for Ardern to form a ruling coalition, said it sent a message that New Zealand was “no longer for sale”.
A recent survey by property consultants Knight Frank found annual house price growth in New Zealand was 10.4 percent. 
The median price for residential property in Auckland is $845,000, according to data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.
 
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New Zealand ban on foreigners buying homes will increase Australian acquisitions

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Melbourne's median house price growth moderated in the September quarter, according to the REIV, as new policy initiatives increased sale volumes at the lower end of the market. 
Outer Melbourne dominated the top 20 growth suburbs this quarter as buyers looked for affordable entry points to the market. 
The seaside suburb of Dromana was the city’s best performing with its median house price increasing 15 per cent on June figures to $790,250. Sunbury, Ringwood East and Diamond Creek also experienced double-digit quarterly growth. 
Broadmeadows made the top 10 growth locations, with its $595,000 median price reflected in the brick veneer offering (above) which had redevelopment potential.
The latest REIV data shows the metropolitan Melbourne house price recorded its lowest increase in almost two years, up just 0.7 per in the September quarter to $817,000. 
The REIV Acting President Richard Simpson said the moderation was attributable to 44 per cent of all sales in the September quarter being below $600,000. 
“In the June quarter we saw vendors with houses around that $600,000 price point hold off selling in order to capitalise on greater competition from first homebuyers.” 
“These incentives have certainly worked with first homebuyers accounting for 18.3 per cent of all new home loans in August - the highest since September 2013.” 
“Despite the moderation, the market remains strong with the Melbourne median house price up a remarkable 14 per cent on the same period last year. We’re also seeing buyer demand continue to outstrip supply and a high level of vendor confidence.” 
“Given the strength of the market at present, buyers are looking for new growth areas which offer value without the need to compromise on amenities or infrastructure.” 
“Increased competition for homes further from the city is boosting the median house price in many of these areas, with all of the city’s most affordable suburbs experiencing significant annual growth.” 
Mr Simpson added that the city’s inner ring recorded the strongest growth of any region in the September quarter with its median house price increasing 1.5 per cent to just over $1.5 million. 
“Buyer demand within 10km of the CBD remains strong, which is being supported by a shortage of quality stock.” 
Apartment prices were also impacted by the Government’s first homebuyer initiatives with the citywide median falling for the first time in six quarters, down 2.5 per cent to $587,000. 
Meanwhile, house prices in regional Victoria increased for the third consecutive quarter, up 1.2 per cent to $385,000. 
TOP GROWTH SUBURBS – SEPTEMBER QUARTER (min 30 sales) 
Suburb                      Sep-17         Median Quarterly Change 
DROMANA                $790,250            15% 
SUNBURY                $518,000            14.5% 
BALWYN NORTH      $2,105,000         13.8% 
RINGWOOD EAST    $1,030,000          13.2% 
LALOR                    $682,500              12.8% 
DIAMOND CREEK    $813,100              11.9% 
BENTLEIGH            $1,610,000          11.8% 
RICHMOND            $1,442,000          10.8% 
ELTHAM                  $945,000                9.8% 
BROADMEADOWS $595,000                9.7%
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Dromana leads price growth, but Broadmeadows in catch up: REIV

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This is the first time since November last year that optimists have outnumbered pessimists and represents the highest level of the Index since October last year.
Consistent reports of an improving global economy may have been a factor behind this lift in confidence. It is also likely that concerns about rising interest rates associated with overheated housing markets have eased.
Ongoing improvements in the labour market are also boosting confidence. Confidence showed stronger gains amongst those employed as tradies, ‘paraprofessionals’ (typically in the health and education sectors), or labourers. The rise in confidence was particularly strong for ‘trade’ workers, up 22% in the month, suggesting the continued strength in residential building was a positive factor.
However, confidence is still not particularly strong, with views on family finances a clear weak spot. Whereas the overall Index is down 1% on a year ago respondents’ assessments of their own finances relative to a year ago have fallen by 6.1% and the outlook for finances over the next 12 months is down by 2.6%. Offsetting that ongoing weakness in respondents’ assessments of their own finances is a lift in the 12 month economic outlook of 6.9% relative to last October.
All sub-indexes recorded a lift in October.
The ‘economic conditions, next 12 months’ sub-index posted the strongest gain, rising 7.1% to a four year high. Some of this likely stems from consistent coverage of the continuing improvement in the global economy with, in particular, improved confidence in the US growth outlook. Longer term economic prospects showed a more muted rise. The ‘economic outlook over the next 5years’ sub-index rose just 1.4%.
Consumers’ views on family finances also improved but the gains were more mixed with readings still weak overall. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances over the next 12 months’ posted a solid 4.2% gain. An easing in concerns about potential interest rate rises was a likely factor. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index posted a more muted 1% rise.
Consumers were more positive about making major purchases, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index rose 3.5% in October after a 2.1% lift in September. However, the sub-index remains well below its long run average (down 2.9% over the year), suggesting that the sluggish spending evident through most of 2017 is likely to extend into year-end. Expectations for the labour market continue to improve. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index fell 3.3% to 129.2 in October, marking the lowest reading since June 2011 (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead).
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 3.6% to 101.4 in October from 97.9 in September. The move is broadly based with expectations improving across all the major states.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/11/WestpacIndex1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/11/WestpacIndex1.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/11/WestpacIndex2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/11/WestpacIndex2.png" alt="">
Consumer views around housing remained downbeat. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index dipped 0.2% to 95.1, well below the long run average of 120. State indexes continue to vary widely, ranging from very weak reads in NSW (77) and Vic (88) to a strongly positive result in WA (135.4).
Consumer expectations for house prices also softened in the month. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations dipped 1% to 140.5. The index still shows positive price expectations nationally although the state breakdown showed a sharp 8% decline in New South Wales (to the lowest level since June last year) partially offset by stronger price expectations in Queensland and Western Australia. Evidence that house price expectations in the overheated Sydney market are cooling is likely to be encouraging for policymakers.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 7. The Board is certain to keep rates on hold. In fact Westpac does not expect rates to rise at all over the next year despite market pricing and general commentary.
The key to the interest rate outlook remains the consumer and the housing market. While today’s report shows a welcome boost in consumer confidence most of the strength is centred on the one year economic outlook. Respondents remain concerned about their own finances despite an expectation that the economy over all will improve. As we saw in the data for retail sales in August, consumer assessments of family finances, which have been downbeat for some time, are likely to be a more reliable indicator of actual spending than their views on the general economic outlook.
Furthermore, the survey continues to point to an easing in sentiment in the housing markets in the major states. Interest rate increases aimed at cooling over heated housing markets appear to be becoming unnecessary as macro prudential policy tools are achieving the same purpose.
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House price expectations cooling: Bill Evans

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House prices in Sydney and Melbourne are overvalued by up to 30 per cent, and could experience a 10 per cent correction in prices once the RBA raises interest rates, according to a leading economist.
Economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics has done the numbers using a measure called the HPE ratio, or a "normal" house price to earnings ratio.
The other capital cities of Hobart, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were also overvalued - by as much as 10 per cent.
The forecaster said prices were in line with fair value in Perth while Darwin could be undervalued.
Capital Economics noted that the current average house price to earnings ratio for the eight capital cities of 5.8 was still much higher than the historical average of 3.6 for the 36 year period from 1980 to 2016.
The consultancy said that most analysts look at house price to income ratios to determine whether real estate is overvalued. Instead, Capital Economics used the HPE measure to arrive at its conclusions.
The analysis said that in spite of the higher HPE ratio, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne wouldn’t go into a free fall because a "structurally lower" level of interest rates at present compared with that of the 36-year period meant buyers were now willing to accept a lower annual return from housing and were also willing to pay more for housing relative to their incomes than in the past.
The structural decline in interest rates has raised the “fair-value” or “sustainable HPE ratio”, noted Dales.
"Our view is that prices in Sydney and Melbourne will broadly stagnate or fall modestly over the next two years and that prices won't fall significantly until the RBA starts to raise interest rates, which might not happen until late in 2019. Thereafter, prices in both capital cities may fall by around 10 per cent."
Other capital cities, where the values are not so inflated, might not suffer price falls at all, Dales added.
"As long as disposable incomes continued to grow in each of those cities, then prices may not need to fall much, or at all, for their HPE ratios to move back to sustainable levels.” 
The analysis follows statements by veteran real estate agent, John McGrath, who recently said that the Sydney market was overvalued but ruled out a sharp correction.
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