South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

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Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Falling Prices

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Weakness in Australia’s housing market has persisted longer than we expected. We have revised our forecasts and now expect to see peak-to-trough price declines of around 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, with smaller declines elsewhere.
This doesn’t derail Australia’s economic outlook. The weaker housing market reflects a regulatory induced tightening in the supply of credit rather than tighter monetary policy. We think, as a result, that the impact on the economy will be a less pervasive. There are also offsets to the weaker housing market. For instance, we revised up our outlook for wages in the very near term, and larger-than-expected tax cuts are a positive development. 
We think for 2018 GDP growth will stay around the 3% level reached in Q1. We expect similar growth in 2019, before a slowdown in government spending, investment and net exports sees growth drop to around 2.5% in 2020. 
Growth in the order of 3% for this year and next is expected to push the unemployment rate down to 5% by the end of 2019. In turn this tighter labour market supports higher wage growth. The lift in wages helps the outlook for inflation, with core inflation lifting to 2.3% y/y by the end of 2020. 
Falling unemployment and rising wages would allow the RBA to conclude that sufficient progress is being made toward the mid-point of the inflation target, which may prompt it to reduce monetary accommodation in 2019. Previously, we expected the RBA to tighten in May 2019. Our weaker house price outlook makes this timing challenging. While the RBA does not specifically target house prices, we think it will be reluctant to start tightening policy if house prices are still falling. Hence we have pushed the first hike to August to allow more time for stability to emerge, with another to follow in November and then for the cash rate to sit at 2% in 2020. 
Obvious downside risks to our outlook come from: the threats to global trade, the possibility that house prices fall by more than we expect and/or that they have a more negative impact than we assume. An upside risk could be a much lower-than-assumed AUD, as the RBA lags the Fed further.
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HOUSE PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TIMING OF OUR RBA CALL 
The housing market is weaker than we expected. Instead of prices stabilising in the first half of 2018 they have continued to decline. As a consequence we now expect to see peak- to-trough price declines of around 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, with smaller declines elsewhere (Figure 2). See our June Housing Chartpack for our revised outlook. 
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A weaker housing outlook affects our outlook for household spending. We think there are offsets, like a slightly firmer outlook for wages and more generous tax cuts than we had factored into our last forecast update. Overall our projections for GDP, employment and inflation are broadly similar to the last update despite the weaker track for house prices. 
This also reflects the fact that the source of house price weakness is a regulatory induced tightening in the supply of credit rather than one triggered by RBA rate hikes. We think this has a less pervasive impact on the economy than falling house prices brought about by higher interest rates would have. Not least because much of the impact of tighter credit supply is centred on Sydney and Melbourne rather than being country wide. 
We do, however, think the housing market’s path will influence the RBA’s policy deliberations. We think that our expectations – a decline in unemployment toward 5%, a gradual acceleration in wages and a lift in core inflation above 2% – support the case for a higher cash rate at some point. But the weaker outlook for housing will also matter, in our view. While the RBA doesn’t focus on house prices specifically, we doubt it will be comfortable tightening if house prices are still falling as that would add to the downside risks for the economy at a time when the inflation outlook doesn’t require an aggressive approach. We think the RBA will want to be confident that the housing market is stable before it raises the cost of debt. 
Our updated forecasts show house prices falling until the end of 2018 and then stabilising in the first half of 2019. It is possible that, by May, sufficient evidence of stability will be in place. A rate hike could take place then, as we previously expected. 
We now think it more likely, though, that the RBA will wait a little longer before tightening, not only to ensure that the housing market has stabilised but also to ensure that the unemployment rate gets closer to 5%. As such, we have shifted the timing of the first rate hike to August 2019, with a second hike in November. This also gets us well past a possible May election. The lift in the cost of debt triggers a further modest weakening in the housing market. The RBA is then expected to keep the cash rate at 2% through 2020.
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SOLID GDP GROWTH STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 
We have updated our GDP forecasts in the light of several factors, specifically our revised outlook for the housing market and the release of the Q1 GDP data. But also taking account of the policy measures announced in the May Commonwealth Budget, most notably the bigger tax cuts than we expected in our March forecast. The forecast horizon has also been extended out to 2020. We still expect solid growth this year and next, looking for around 3% in each year (Figure 3). We anticipate slower growth of 2.5% in 2020, as growth in public sector spending slows and the contribution from net exports turns negative.
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Our forecasts for the household sector are largely unchanged from our last update, despite weaker house prices. Consumption is likely to grow relatively modestly, given the constraints of low wage growth, high debt and now falling house prices. Slightly higher wages and bigger tax cuts than we expected provide offsets to the weakness in house prices. The outlook for housing investment is also likely to be subdued, with activity likely to eke out one more quarter of expansion, before gradually declining through H2 2018 and 2019 in response to lower approvals and higher interest rates in 2019. In 2020 we expect activity to stabilise, with a stable cash rate and ongoing solid population growth helping to support demand. 
The outlook for private investment remains positive, and we continue to expect robust growth over the next few years. Surveys continue to suggest that firms are planning to expand capex and that capacity utilisation rates are high, with businesses reporting that they are bumping up against premises and plant limitations. We have, however, shaved our forecasts a little given heightened global uncertainty, particularly on the trade front, a modest downgrade to investment plans in the Capex Survey and recent weakness in non- residential building approvals. Overall though, the outlook remains good, and we expect business investment to be a key support to GDP growth over the next few years. 
Another key support to growth will come from the public sector. The pipeline of infrastructure spending suggests that activity will continue to expand this year and next, although we see 2019 as the peak and expect activity to flatten out in 2020. Public consumption is set to continue to grow strongly with the ongoing roll-out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) supporting spending (Figure 4). Overall, public demand should continue to punch above its weight in terms of its contribution to GDP growth over the next few years. 
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LNG is likely to be a key driver of the 0.6ppt contribution from net exports over the year to December 2018. We expect the 2019 contribution to be smaller and net exports to turn negative in 2020. Solid export growth and elevated commodity prices should help to support profit growth. 
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We continue to expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2% by the end of this year and then reach 5% by the end of 2019 (Figure 5). Ongoing solid growth should help to erode spare capacity through 2020, pushing the unemployment rate below the key 5% level. 
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Wages growth is likely to remain subdued, although we have actually lifted our near term forecasts a touch. The recent improvement in the Wage Price Index (including bonuses) suggests that an increase in the difficulty of finding suitable labour is pushing businesses to lift pay to attract workers (Figure 6). This should eventually feed through into the headline measure. Moreover, the Fair Work Commission has just announced another larger-than- usual increase in the minimum wage of 3.5%, to start on 1 July. Given ongoing spare capacity in the labour market, however, the improvement in wage growth is expected to be gradual, with y/y growth in the Wage Price Index lifting to 2.4%, 2.6% and 2.9% by end- 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. 
The slight improvement in wages seen to date has translated to a lift in household income growth. The 1.1% real annual growth is far off the low of -0.2% recorded in Q2 2017, however it remains well below consumption growth of 2.9%. Consequently, the household saving rate continues to fall. It is now only just above 2% – the lowest rate since the financial crisis.
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We expect household income to lift in coming years, allowing spending growth to broadly maintain the pace of the past few years without the need for further declines in the saving rate (Figure 7). If we are wrong, and income growth fails to recover, the low level of the saving rate will limit households’ capacity to maintain the recent spending pace.
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While the outlook for household incomes and spending continues to be the key domestic downside risk to our forecasts, increasing global trade tensions have now raised the risks around the external sector. Clearly the evolution of trade discussions and geopolitical issues will have an important influence on Australia’s economy, given its large trade exposure. Any disappointment on this front has the potential to flow through to the business investment outlook, crimping a key driver of the current recovery. 
NEAR-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK A TOUCH HIGHER 
We have nudged our near–term inflation forecasts higher, although we continue to expect only a very gradual acceleration in inflationary pressures. We now expect core inflation to hit 2% y/y in Q3 2018 – previously Q4 2018 – which partly reflects base effects from the solid 0.5% q/q result in Q1 2018. 
Looking forward, our forecast for core inflation at the end of 2019 is unchanged, at 2.1% y/y, as wage growth accelerates only slowly and retail price deflation continues. Our profile for headline CPI is somewhat higher, largely reflecting our expectation that petrol prices will provide a significant boost over the remainder of this year. We now see headline CPI accelerating to 2.3% y/y by December 2018 (up from a previous forecast of 2.0% y/y). In annual average terms, we expect headline CPI to rise by 2.2% in both 2018 and 2019 (Figure 8, below). 
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David Plank is head of Australian economics at ANZ.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

ANZ revise property forecasts and see 10 percent declines in Sydney and Melbourne

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The median house price across Australian capital cities has declined in the first quarter of 2018, according to the latest research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.  The REIA Real Estate Market Facts for the March quarter 2018 saw the weighted average median prices fall by 0.1 per cent at $770,086 for houses and 0.2 per cent at $593,183.  REIA President Malcolm Gunning said the median house price increased in Hobart, Melbourne and Adelaide but decreased in Darwin, Perth, Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra. “Canberra had the largest fall in house prices and Darwin had the largest decrease in other dwellings,” Mr Gunning said.   “This is the first time since September 2006 that Hobart hasn’t had the lowest house median price for all capital cities on the back of an increase of 7.2 per cent over the quarter and 20.0 per cent over the previous year.
“Adelaide now has the lowest median house price at $470,000 some 39 per cent lower than the national average,” Mr Gunning said.  Mr Gunning said despite the falls over the quarter, over the 12 months, the weighted average capital city median house price has increased by 2.2 per cent, on the back of rises in all capital cities except Perth and Darwin. “Over the quarter, median rents for three-bedroom houses increased in all capital cities except Darwin. Median rents for two-bedroom other dwellings performed better with all cities increasing their medians,” he said.  Mr Gunning said the weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities decreased to 2.6 per cent during the March quarter indicating a tighter rental market.  “Canberra has the tightest market with a vacancy rate of 0.5 per cent which is the lowest rate for a capital city since March 2008 and for Canberra since the early 1980s,” Mr Gunning said.  Australian Capital Territory Over the March quarter, the median house price for Canberra decreased to $641,000, a decrease of 3.6 per cent over the quarter but an increase of 1.7 per cent over the previous year.  The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Canberra increased to $495 per week, an increase of 2.1 per cent over the quarter and 5.9 per cent over the previous year. During the March quarter, the vacancy rate in Canberra decreased to 0.5 per cent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points over the quarter, and the lowest vacancy rate for the country.
New South Wales Over March quarter, the median house price in Sydney decreased to $1,150,357, a decrease of 2.6 per cent over the quarter and a decrease of 1.4 per cent over the previous year.  The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Sydney increased to $520 per week, an increase of 2.0 per cent over the quarter and an increase of 4.0 per cent over the past year. The vacancy rate in Sydney increased to 2.3 per cent an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the quarter.
Northern Territory Over the March quarter, the median house price in Darwin increased to $505,000, a decrease of 1.6 per cent over the quarter and a decrease of 4.7 per cent since the previous year.  
The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Darwin decreased to $477 per week, a decrease of 2.2 per cent over the quarter and a decrease of 3.4 per cent over the previous year. The vacancy rate in Darwin increased to 6.5 per cent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the March quarter 2018.  Queensland
Over the March quarter, the median house price for Brisbane decreased to $515,000, a decrease of 2.8 per cent but an increase of 2.0 per cent over the previous year.  The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Brisbane increased to $390 per week, an increase of 2.6 per cent over the March quarter but stable over the past year. The vacancy rate in Brisbane increased to 2.7 per cent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points during the March quarter.  South Australia Over the March quarter, Adelaide’s median house price increased to $470,000, an increase of 1.1 per cent over the quarter and 2.2 per cent over the previous year.
The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Adelaide increased to $355 per week, an increase of 2.9 per cent over the previous quarter and 1.4 per cent over the previous year. Tasmania Over the March quarter, the median house price in Hobart increased to $492,000, an increase of 7.2 per cent over the quarter and an increase of 20.0 per cent over the previous year.  The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Hobart increased to $400 per week, an increase of 5.3 per cent over the quarter and 8.1 per cent over the previous year. The vacancy rate in Hobart remained stable at 1.4 per cent during the March quarter.  Victoria Over the March quarter, the median house price in Melbourne increased to $855,000, an increase of 4.4 per cent over the quarter and 7.4 per cent over the previous year. The median rent for three-bedroom houses in Melbourne increased to $400 per week, an increase of 1.3 per cent over the quarter and 2.6 per cent over the previous year. The rental vacancy rate in Melbourne decreased to 2.1 per cent over the March quarter, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. 
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Median house price drops across five capitals in first quarter: REIA

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The national dwelling values slipped by 0.1 percent in February, taking housing values 0.8 percent lower since peaking in September last year, according to today's CoreLogic Home Value Index results.
Dwelling values edged lower across most capital cities over the month, with broad based falls weighing down dwelling values nationally for the fifth consecutive month. 
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The 0.1% decline in national dwelling values in February 2018 was more moderate than the 0.3% declines recorded over each of the previous two months, however, it marked the first time national values had fallen for five consecutive months since March 2016.
Over the 12 months to February 2018, national dwelling values increased by 2.2 percent, which is their slowest annual rate of growth since August 2016.
The gap between annual growth rates across the combined capital cities (2.0%) and the combined regional markets (2.8%) has continued to widen over the past month as regional areas outperform the capitals.
There continues to be a divergence between capital city and regional markets, with the combined capital city index falling by -0.3% over the month, compared to a 0.4% increase in combined regional values.
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Over the month values fell across every capital city except Hobart, which increased by 0.7 percent, and Adelaide which remained steady.
The biggest drop was in Darwin which decline 0.9 percent, while Sydney dropped 0.6 percent.
Canberra's dwelling prices went down by 0.3 percent, Perth 0.2 percent and Brisbane and Melbourne 0.1 percent.
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The rate of decline eased over the second half of February although values have fallen in most capital cities during February, the CoreLogic daily index indicates that the rate of decline eased late in the month, in line with improving auction clearance rates. Sydney, Melbourne and Perth all recorded more moderate falls in values throughout February than they did in January.
CoreLogic head of research, Tim Lawless, said, “The overall softening in the market becomes more evident when looking at the change in values over the past three months.” 
Over the three months to February 2018, Adelaide (0.1%) and Hobart (3.2%) were the only capital cities in which values rose. Sydney, which has been the strongest market for value growth over recent years, saw the largest fall in values over the three month period, down -2.4%. Sydney was followed by Darwin, which has been persistently weak over recent years, and saw values fall by a further -2.0% over the quarter. 
Regional markets outperforming the capitals While most individual capital cities recorded declines in values over the past three months, in the regional areas of the country the results were very different; regional dwelling values increased by 0.9% over the three months and values were higher in the regional areas of all states except for Western Australia. 
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Five consecutive months of national dwelling price decline: CoreLogic

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Australian housing market sentiment was unchanged in the final quarter of 2017 but confidence levels softened, says NAB.
The NAB Residential Property Index had sentiment towards the residential property market remaining positive in most states.
“Trends have however been mixed in recent quarters and the latest survey showed a clear shift in momentum from the key eastern states towards the rest of the country” NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
Sentiment jumped sharply in SA/NT to lead the country as expectations around house prices and rents edged up. WA also reported its strongest read since early-2014 but still negative.
In the key Eastern states, sentiment fell sharply in Victoria from very high levels. In NSW, the slowdown in dwelling prices appears to be having a much bigger impact with sentiment falling further to its lowest level in 2 years. Queensland was largely unchanged.
Confidence levels (based on forward expectations for prices and rents) also turned down, led by NSW and Victoria, with SA/NT the big improver.
“This improvement mirrors recent findings in our own business survey which shows SA also reporting above average business conditions and strong confidence” said Mr Oster.
Average survey expectations for national house prices over the next 1-2 years were pared back in all states except SA/NT. NSW is the only state where property experts expect prices to fall - and for two years.
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First home buyers (especially those buying for owner occupation) continued to raise their profile in new and established housing markets in the December quarter, with their share of total demand reaching new survey highs. Overall, they accounted for almost 2 in 5 sales in new housing markets and around 1 in 3 in established markets.
The share of foreign buyers in Australian housing markets however continued to fall in Q4, dropping to a 6-year low 8.4% in new property markets and a 5-year low 5.5% in the established housing market.
“Clearly, the efforts of policymakers both domestic and offshore to stem the tide of foreign capital entering Australian property markets are bearing fruit” said Mr Oster.
NAB’s assessment of the housing market direction for 2018 remains largely unchanged, although the degree of moderation has been ramped up considerably - mainly driven by revisions to Sydney prices, where recent price trends have been most concerning and prudential measures are likely to have the biggest impact.
House prices are forecast to increase by only 0.7% in 2018 (previously 3.4%), with growth remaining subdued at 0.8% in 2019.
The apartment market is expected to underperform, reflecting large additions to the apartment stock and a soft outlook for foreign demand. Unit prices are forecast to fall 0.9% in 2018 (previously +0.5%), and decline another 1.8% in 2019.
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“By capital city, house price growth is forecast to be solid in Melbourne and Hobart, followed by Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth is expected to stabilise, marking the beginning of a gradual turnaround for the market, while we expect to see a fall in Sydney prices for the first time since 2011” said Mr Oster.
Most cities are expected to remain muted, if not ease further, in 2019. Unit prices are expected to fall in Brisbane and Sydney over 2018, while Melbourne will join the fold in 2019 as new supply further dampens the market. 
“Naturally, any additional changes to government or prudential policy to address affordability or financial stability concerns are likely to have an impact on these forecasts” said Mr Oster.
About 300 property professionals participated in the Q4 2017 survey.
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Sydney only capital with predicted house price falls over next two years: NAB

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CoreLogic today released its January hedonic home value index results which, at a national level, revealed a fall of 0.3% for the month, led by a 0.9% fall in Sydney dwelling values.
The difference between Melbourne and Sydney houses according to CoreLogic is $216,000.
The national combined dwellings index posted a modest 0.3% fall in January, taking dwelling values 0.7% lower since their recent peak in September last year. Dwelling value falls were most evident across the capital city regions, with the combined capitals index down half a per cent over the month, while the combined regional areas of Australia continued to see values edging higher, up 0.2% in January. The combined regional markets have now recorded a stronger monthly change in values relative to the combined capital cities over each of the past four months.
Across the capital cities, while broad-based, the softer month-on-month housing market conditions were led by Sydney (-0.9%), with declines also reported in Melbourne (-0.2%), Adelaide (-0.2%), Perth (-0.4%), Darwin (-0.2%) and Canberra (-0.1%) while values in Brisbane were unchanged.
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The price gap has narrowed between Sydney and Melbourne, according to Domain's research.
According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, “Housing market activity is generally more sedate from late December through to late January; a factor which can contribute towards higher volatility in housing market measurements due to the lower number of observations. Our experience has been that this seasonality doesn’t exert much influence over the trend in hedonic valuations.” 
“While January may deliver additional noise in the indices results, the negative monthly result lines up with recent months, which showed a softening trend, particularly in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne. 
“In the absence of a catalyst to reinvigorate the market, such as lower mortgage rates or a loosening in credit policies, we expect to see a continuation of softening conditions across these markets,” he said. 
The Sydney housing market has now retraced by 3.1% after dwelling values surged 75% between February 2012 and the recent peak in July last year. With a history of such strong capital gains, the fall in Sydney housing values to date has been mild and the vast majority of Sydney home owners remain in a strong equity position. 
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Highlights over the three months to January 2018 
▶  Best performing capital city: Hobart +3.1% 
▶  Weakest performing capital city: Sydney -2.5% 
▶  Highest rental yield: Darwin 5.9% 
▶  Lowest rental yields: Melbourne 2.9
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Melbourne’s housing market has recorded two successive month-on-month declines in dwelling values following a 59% surge in values over the growth cycle. Since peaking in November last year, the cumulative decline is only 0.4%, highlighting Melbourne’s resilience to a downturn in values relative to Sydney, which is likely attributable to better housing affordability, stronger population growth and, up until recently, a faster rate of jobs creation. 
Mr Lawless said, “Focusing on the results over the past three months, the trend in housing market conditions becomes clearer, with the only capital cities to record a decline over the three months ending January being Sydney (-2.5%), Perth (-0.3%) and Darwin (-1.6%). The remaining capitals are generally seeing dwelling values holding firm or showing only a subtle rise. 
“It was the first time since the three months to December 2006 that Sydney recorded the weakest value change of all capital cities.” 
Based on the CoreLogic results, dwelling values remained virtually flat across Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide over the past three months with each city seeing a rise of just 0.1%, while Canberra values are slightly higher at 1.0%. 
Once again, Hobart was the exception; dwelling values are generally rising by around 1% month-to-month. Hobart remains as the only capital city to record double digit growth over the past twelve months, with dwelling values up 12.4%. Hobart’s high rate of capital gains can be partly attributed to low housing prices relative to the larger mainland capitals; Hobart median house values are about 59% ($616,000) lower than Sydney’s and 48% ($401,000) lower than Melbourne’s. With values rising quickly in Hobart and now easing in Sydney and Melbourne, Mr Lawless said “this affordability advantage is being eroded.” 
In closing he said, “Higher mortgage rates would test the resilience of the housing market, especially considering household debt is tracking at record highs, however, the likelihood of mortgage rates moving substantially higher remains low.” 
While dwelling values are now easing, both at a macro level and across several of the capital cities, it is clear that Australian housing values aren’t falling off a cliff. National dwelling values are down just 0.7% over the past four months after increasing by 41% during the growth phase. 
CoreLogic cites strong jobs growth and low unemployment, high migration levels and low mortgage rates as the key factors to support a continuation in the housing markets’ soft landing. 
Labour market conditions have generally been improving, with stronger jobs growth spreading outside of Victoria and New South Wales, particularly into Queensland, and, to a lesser extent, Western Australia. 
Mr Lawless said, “Stronger labour markets are likely to help drive confidence and support mortgage demand. If the trend persists, stronger conditions may help to push wages growth off near record lows which would also provide a positive influence on housing market conditions.” 
“We’re also seeing strong population growth contributing to housing demand. Migration rates have been trending higher which is likely to continue into 2018. Overseas migration into Victoria and New South Wales reached record highs in mid-2017 and interstate migration has been on a clear upwards trajectory across Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the ACT.” 
“With financial markets forecasting a 25 basis point lift to the cash rate before the end of 2018, there is an increasing chance mortgage rates may lift this year. 
“Even if the cash rate were to remain stable, there is the potential mortgage rates could be adjusted higher due to increased bank funding costs in the capital markets or in order to fulfil APRA’s local implementation requirements of the now finalized Basel III requirements for regulatory capital held against residential mortgages, particularly elements of the proposals which may lead to higher regulatory capital for some investment loans and high loan to valuation ratio loans. More details in respect of this last element are expected over the coming months” 
In closing he said, “Higher mortgage rates would test the resilience of the housing market, especially considering household debt is tracking at record highs, however, the likelihood of mortgage rates moving substantially higher remains low.” 
 
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney house price growth slips back to 0.1 percent per annum: CoreLogic

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After forecasting house price rises every year since 2013, economic commentator Chris Joye has reaffirmed his April 2017 advisory that the property boom is over.
He forecasts that prices will fall in 2018, despite falling unemployment.
He noted Sydney prices started sliding in September this year with the national five-capital city index falling by October, according to CoreLogic numbers.
"Whereas Sydney values have slumped 1.9 per cent, prices across the five capital cities have corrected by a more modest 0.4 per cent.
"And there will likely be the normal seasonality afflicting this data as values typically pull back in December," Joye told readers last week in The Australian Financial Review.
"It's also interesting to observe that there has been no capital appreciation in the stubbornly ebullient Melbourne market since November," he added.
Joye suggests when Australia's jobless rate falls below 5 per cent in 2018, the central bank will have no choice but to raise rates once or twice "assuming it acts rationally."
"This will reinforce the magnitude of the expected correction," he anticipates.
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Joye looks to the past for solid precedents.
"After the last big bubble that kicked off in earnest in 2001 and ended in December 2003, Sydney prices fell 6.3 per cent in the following three years.
"In the 12 months after their 2003 peak, dwelling values in Melbourne and across the five largest cities declined by 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively."
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<div>Joye notes the 2003 household debt-to-income ratio was merely 150 per cent, "miles below the current 194 per cent mark."</div>
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<div>Joye also noted after the cash rate increased from its then "crisis level" of 3 per cent to 4.75 per cent, home values shrunk 6.7 per cent between late 2010 and early 2012.</div>
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"As a minimum I expect prices to match this result.
"Assuming 100 basis points or more of rate increases, my central case is a 10 per cent plus drawdown in what should be a relatively benign mean-reversion in Australia's otherwise unprecedented house price-to-income ratio."
Joye, a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital Investments which invests in fixed-income securities, noted the heftiest fall on record was 8.3 per cent in 2008.
He wrote in October while the next downturn may cause "temporary hysteria" in markets, the tremendous deleveraging of bank balance-sheets, coupled with the de-risking of their business models and a notable improvement in the austerity of lending standards, should ensure they are well-placed to absorb what will be, by international standards, a modest lift in home loan losses.
His April column noted his concerns about "the runaway housing boom."
To address the issue, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) had introduced tough new macroprudential constraints on interest-only lending, in an effort to stifle irresponsible lending and borrowing decisions, in a move backed by Treasurer Scott Morrison.
Joye anticipated a softer auction clearance rate to continue throughout 2017, in tune with a pronounced deceleration in price momentum. 
“I expect this to continue over the rest of the year, which should alleviate the concerns of rating agencies animated by the blindingly obvious financial stability risks propagated by the RBA's cheap money policies,” Joye wrote in October. 
He noted Perth home values had slumped 10 per cent since their December 2014 peak with Joye then predicting that this could eventually happen in Sydney and Melbourne, thus wiping out half the equity of all first time buyers.
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Residential property in Sydney had benefited from capital gains of 73 per cent since March 2012, care of the RBA slashing its cash rate from 4.75 per cent to 1.5 per cent, transferring wealth from prudent savers to spendthrift borrowers, Joye suggested. 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Nascent 2017 falling property prices to exceed 6 percent or more through current cycle: Chris Joye

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Average home prices across all eight capitals fell 0.2 per cent in the September quarter, the first decline since the March quarter of 2016, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Residential Property Price Index.
Sydney apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes fell 1.4 per cent in the quarter, the ABS figures showed.
House prices also turned negative with values falling 1.3 per cent.
Average capital city prices were up 8.3 per cent on the same period a year earlier.
Hobart posted the strongest annual gains being up 13.8 per cent, while prices in Melbourne were up by 13.2 per cent and Sydney had a 9.4 per cent gain.
House prices in Melbourne rose 1.6 per cent in the September quarter.
Perth (-0.9 per cent) and Darwin (-2.5 per cent) continued their decline.
Hobart's dwelling values jumped 3.4 per cent in quarter, greater than in any other city.
Apartment values fell in Melbourne (-0.4 per cent), Perth (-1.3 per cent), Darwin (-2.8 per cent) and Canberra (-1.1 per cent) in the September quarter.
 
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Property prices fall in September quarter: ABS

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Alex Perry Apartments in Brisbane’s upmarket Fortitude Valley, were designed to be an exclusive address at their launch in 2011 with much fanfare.
Then they ran into problems.
First, the developers of the delayed 11-storey apartment block removed all three-bedroom apartments from the design.
The three-bedders were replaced with one-bedroom apartments as part of a “redefined product”.
One-bedroom apartments were priced from $381,000 and two-bedroom units from $550,000.
However, since the initial sales, asking prices of the units have been steadily falling.
All apartments were designed by Alex Perry in conjunction with Cottee Parker Architects.
A one-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125836930" target="_blank">1112/959 Ann Street</a>, spanning 59 sqm is for sale at $425,000.
The apartment has been on the market since July this year.
It previously sold for $463,439 in October 2013, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
A two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-404-959-ann-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">404/959 Ann Street</a>, remains listed after 769 days at $527,400. 
CoreLogic RP Data shows it last sold for $589,000 in July 2015.
Similarly, a two-bedroom unit, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125455306" target="_blank">304/959 Ann Street</a>, which sold for $520,720 in  June 2013, is on the market. The description for the 73 sqm unit says “Urgent Sale for any reasonable offer”. But the listing doesn’t indicate a price. 
Another two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-309-959-ann-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">309/959 Ann Street</a> is listed for $522,000. It has been on the market for 528 days!
The apartment first sold in 2015 for $570,000.
A two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-126124850" target="_blank">1111/959 Ann Street</a>, sold for $540,960 in 2013. It was listed again in March 2016 and is open to offers above $539,000.
CoreLogic records show that developer Chrome Property acquired the site at 959 Ann Street for $6.27 million in March 2010.
Meanwhile, the Australian fashion designer has secured a Sydney investment apartment in Darlinghurst for $1.7 million.
Perry retains an apartment in the FV complex.
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Asking prices going backwards in Alex Perry, Fortitude Valley

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When we think about the housing market we tend to focus on when values rise but in the recent past values have fallen in each capital city; this week we look at the magnitude and duration of these falls in the past.
Throughout the past 20 years it has been much more common for combined capital city dwelling values to have been increasing than falling. 
Although value rises have been more common, it doesn’t mean that the housing market is bulletproof and in some instances values have fallen quite dramatically and rapidly. 
Typically the Reserve Bank (RBA) or the Government have adjusted fiscal and/or monetary policy to support the housing market and arrest the value falls.
Across the combined capital cities, dwelling values have increased by 346.4% over the 20 years to April 2017. 
In the two periods in which values have fallen, capital city dwelling values fell by -6.1% between March and December 2008 and they fell by -7.4% between October 2010 and May 2012.
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At an individual capital city level housing markets have cycled quite differently however, the majority of capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values in both 2008 and from late 2010/early 2011. 
The 2008 decline occurred as the financial crisis hit with values falling however, stimulus measures in the form of aggressive interest rate cuts along with cash handouts and boosts to first home buyer’s grants proved enough to spur demand and turnaround the decline in values.
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In 2010 dwelling values fell as the post financial crisis stimulus was being wound out of the market with interest rates increasing and first home buyer incentives being removed. 
These value falls were arrested as the RBA reversed direction and started to cut official interest rates again in late 2011.
Looking at the declines which commenced in 2008, the magnitude of falls was fairly minor considering most advanced economies fell into recession as a result of the financial crisis. 
Hobart and Darwin were relatively unaffected by the declines however, Melbourne (-8.3%), Perth (-6.8%) and Sydney (-6.2%) were more impacted than all other capital cities. 
The period of decline proved quite short and it has become clear that the stimulus measures effectively staved off sharper declines and possibly a national recession.
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From 2010 to 2011/12 all capital cities experienced falls in dwelling values as the financial crisis stimulus and low interest rates were wound out of the market. 
Sydney (-5.0%), Adelaide (-6.9%) and Canberra (-4.4%) were the only capital cities in which values didn’t fall by more than 10% over this period. 
The largest falls were recorded in Darwin (-19.7%), Hobart (-14.3%) and Brisbane (-11.7%). 
Over the period of falls, Darwin (-1.2%) averaged the largest average monthly fall along with Hobart (-0.8%), Melbourne (-0.6%) and Perth (-0.6%). 
Across the other capital cities, Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra recorded average declines of -0.3%/month and Brisbane’s declines averaged -0.5%/month.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.19%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.19%20am.jpg" alt="">
This analysis serves as a reminder that although capital city dwelling values have largely increased over the past 20 years, they are not immune from potential declines. 
The impetus for these previous declines have been external economic shocks and the stimulus of low interest rates and grants to first home buyers being removed. 
We aren’t currently seeing any economic shocks of the size of the 2008 financial crisis but we are seeing unemployment rate at similar levels to 2008/09 and historically high levels of underemployment. 
The market is also slowly seeing historic low mortgage rates moving higher against a backdrop of record low wages growth and record high household debt. 
Depending on how much mortgage rates are increased (noting that this is not happening due to the RBA) home owners should be aware that it could lead to a slowing or even some potential falls in dwelling values.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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