<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

<p><strong>IN BRIEF</strong></p>

<ul>
	<li>
	<p>Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.</p>
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
<p>Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.</p>

<p>Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]</p>

<p>Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.</p>

<p>“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.</p>

<p>“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.</p>

<p>“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]</p>

<p>The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.</p>

<p>The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.</p>

<p>Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.</p>

<p>“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.</p>

<p>“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”</p>

<p><img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" /></p>

<p>Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.</p>

<p>Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.</p>

<p>Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.</p>

<p>“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.</p>

<p>“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.</p>

<p>“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”</p>

<p>Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.</p>

<p>Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.</p>

<p>Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.</p>

<p>Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.</p>

<p data-end="555" data-start="341">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]</p>


Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

<p data-end="387" data-start="97">St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.</p>

<p data-end="697" data-start="389">The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.</p>

<p data-end="925" data-start="699">Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.</p>

<p data-end="1217" data-start="927">It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.</p>

<p data-end="1217" data-start="927"><img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" /></p>

<p data-end="1538" data-start="1219">The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.</p>

<p data-end="1723" data-start="1540">The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.</p>

<p data-end="2063" data-start="1725">The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.</p>

<p data-end="2063" data-start="1725"><img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" /></p>

<p data-end="2205" data-start="2065">Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.</p>

<p data-end="4244" data-start="4087">The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.</p>

<p data-end="4598" data-start="4246">The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.</p>

<p data-end="4798" data-start="4600">Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.</p>

<p data-end="4798" data-start="4600">The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.</p>

<p data-end="5032" data-start="4800"><img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" /></p>

<p data-end="5486" data-start="5211">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="2205" data-start="2065">The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.</p>

<p data-end="2375" data-start="2207">Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.</p>

<p data-end="2712" data-start="2377">Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.</p>

<p data-end="2751" data-start="2714"><em><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a></em></p>

<p data-end="2865" data-start="2753">Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.</p>

<p data-end="3067" data-start="2867">Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.</p>

<p data-end="3379" data-start="3069">Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.</p>

<p data-end="3379" data-start="3069"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station"><em>First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</em></a></p>

<p data-end="3883" data-start="3659">&nbsp;</p>


First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

<p data-end="540" data-start="324">When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East<br />
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.</p>

<p data-end="680" data-start="542">The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.</p>

<p data-end="909" data-start="682">The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.</p>

<p data-end="909" data-start="682">[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]</p>

<p data-end="1076" data-start="911">Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.</p>

<p data-end="1166" data-start="1078">"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.</p>

<p data-end="1257" data-start="1168">"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."</p>

<p data-end="1257" data-start="1168">[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]</p>

<p data-end="1406" data-start="1259">The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.</p>

<p data-end="1475" data-start="1408">For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.</p>

<p data-end="1671" data-start="1477">The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.</p>

<p data-end="1726" data-start="1673">"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.</p>

<p data-end="1874" data-start="1728">"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.</p>

<p data-end="2025" data-start="1876">"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.</p>

<p data-end="2111" data-start="2027">"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."</p>

<p data-end="2225" data-start="2113">That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.</p>

<p data-end="2383" data-start="2227">Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.</p>

<p data-end="2446" data-start="2385">"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.</p>

<p data-end="2602" data-start="2448">"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."</p>

<p data-end="2602" data-start="2448">[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]</p>

<p data-end="2742" data-start="2604">The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.</p>

<p data-end="3013" data-start="2744">South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.</p>

<p data-end="3013" data-start="2744"></p>

<p data-end="3065" data-start="3015">Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.</p>

<p data-end="3065" data-start="3015">[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]</p>

<p data-end="3250" data-start="3067">Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.</p>

<p data-end="3376" data-start="3252">Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.</p>

<p data-end="3516" data-start="3378">Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.</p>

<p data-end="3592" data-start="3518">"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3714" data-start="3594">"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."</p>

<p data-end="3861" data-start="3716">Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.</p>

<p data-end="4004" data-start="3863">Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.</p>

<p data-end="4145" data-start="4006">Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.</p>

<p data-end="4145" data-start="4006">[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]</p>

<p data-end="4273" data-start="4147">The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.</p>

<p data-end="4480" data-start="4275">A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.</p>

<p data-end="4650" data-start="4482">Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.</p>

<p data-end="4785" data-start="4652">The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.</p>

<p data-end="4889" data-start="4787">Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="5144" data-start="4891">Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.</p>

<p data-end="5305" data-start="5146">He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.</p>

<p data-end="5378" data-start="5307">"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.</p>

<p data-end="5495" data-start="5380">"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."</p>

<p data-end="5650" data-start="5497">Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]</p>

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

<p>Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.</p>

<p>The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.</p>

<p>The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.</p>

<p><img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" /></p>

<p>GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.</p>

<p>"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.</p>

<p>"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.</p>

<p>"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.</p>

<p>"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."</p>

<p>The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.</p>

<p>GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.</p>

<p>"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.</p>

<p>"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.</p>

<p>"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."</p>

<p><img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" /></p>

<p>Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.</p>

<p>GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.</p>

<p>The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.</p>

<p>Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.</p>

<p>The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.</p>

<p>Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.</p>

<p>Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.</p>

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

<p>Developer-builder: GRAYA</p>

<p>Project: Silk</p>

<p>Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia</p>

<p>Apartments: 22</p>

<p>Built form: 15 levels</p>

<p>Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding</p>

<p>Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences</p>

<p>Status: Development approved</p>

<p>Next step: Construction planning underway</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]</p>


GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Economy

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Prospects of another soft economic quarter: Alan Oster

How the global picture affects the economic outlook and monetary policy: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>It is true that wage inflation has lifted off its record low of 1.9%yr in June 2017 but running at a 2.3%yr at March 2019 it can hardly be described as running at a breakneck pace. We expect wage inflation to drift higher from here - our forecasts have it peaking around 2.75%yr in 2020 - but given how well contained the wage inflation is across the nation, and between sectors, even this modest increase looks optimistic with the risks to this forecast more to the downside than upside.</p>
<p>In the March quarter, total hourly wages ex bonuses rose 0.5% compared to a market median (and Westpac) expectation for 0.6%. The print was 0.54% at two decimal places with a 0.54% rise in private sectors wage rates and a smaller 0.45% rise in public wages - the smallest quarterly rise in public sector wages since March 2000. It appears that state governments, where revenues are under pressure from declining stamp duty collection, are pushing back against rising wage costs.</p>
<p>Private sector wages printed 0.54% in the last two quarters, but with base effects, the annual pace did drift a little higher to 2.4%yr - the fastest pace since December 2014 but still not exciting. Public sector wage inflation eased to 2.4%yr from a recent peak of 2.6%yr in September 2018, and on current trends, is likely to continue to moderate from here.</p>
<p>An annual pace of wages growth of 2.3%yr is a modest lift from the 2.1%yr pace it held from December 2017 to September 2018 which, in itself, was a very modest improvement from the record low of 1.9%yr in the four quarters before 2017 Q3. So while it is clear that wages have picked up a little and are off the record lows wage inflation is well contained and holding under the historical average.</p>
<p>Since 2018, Westpac watched the rapid fall in the Victorian unemployment rate, and because of this, we are now looking for signs of an acceleration in wage inflation there. In the March quarter, Victorian wages lifted 0.5%qtr, a moderation from the 0.8% gain in Q4, but with base effects, the annual pace was flat at 2.7%yr - the fastest pace by any state and the fastest pace in that state since December 2014.</p>
<p><em><strong>JUSTIN SMIRK</strong> is ‎a senior economist for Westpac.</em></p>
<p><em>You can read the  full report here: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/May/Wages-FIQ12019.pdf" target="_blank">WPI First Impressions pdf 390kb</a>.</em></p>
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The economic data around wages continues to disappoint: Westpac's Justin Smirk  

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>February Labour Force Survey: Total employment: 4.6k from 38.3k (revised from 39.1k), unemployment rate: 4.9% from 5.0% (unrevised 5.0%), participation rate: 65.6% from 65.7% (unrevised 65.7%).</span></p>
<p><span>Employment growth slowed in February lifting 4.6k less than what the market was looking for (median +15k) but a touch better than Westpac’s forecast of –5k. So far 2019 has had a sound start for the labour market with a three month average gain of 21.1k/per month. </span></p>
<p><span>Through 2018 total employment grew 274.5k, or 2.2%yr, with a solid momentum into year end with a six month annualised pace of 2.3%yr. </span></p>
<p><span>While it is just second month into the year, employment grew 284k in the year to February (2.3%yr) but the six month annualised pace has moderated from 2.9%yr in January to 2.3%yr in February.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span><span>As highlighted in our preview we are very cautious about making too much of the January/February releases given the large underlying seasonality in these months. However, what we can say is that it does appear that the momentum in employment has slowed. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>As such, there is nothing in this release to make us change our view that employment growth will take a breather through the first half of 2019 leading to a lift in unemployment. But, to be fair, the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% also means that at this point in time, the RBA will also feel little pressure to change their forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4¾%.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span> It will all come down to who is the better forecaster.</span></span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</span></p>
<p><span><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span>In February, in reverse to the January result, the mix of employment gains painted a soft picture with a 7.3k loss in full-time employment offset by an 11.9k gain in part-time employment. However, hours worked was a bit more upbeat in the month with total hours worked up 0.2% (total employment was flat in the month) as hours worked per person gained 0.1% due to average hours worked rising for both full-time and part-time employees. </span></p>
<p><span>In the year to February total hours worked has lifted 2.2%yr which is on par with the 2.3%yr pace for employment.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>Despite the soft print on employment, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (market median was 5.0%) as a 0.1ppt decline in the participation rate to 65.6% (65.57% at two decimal places) resulted in a –7.1k decline in the labour force. At this stage it appears that both male and female participation is levelling out in a trend sense and we are closely watching where they go next. We do expect both to edge lower though 2019 H1 as employment growth stalls.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span>February was a soft month for employment growth across the states. Employment fell 5.8k in NSW (+128.9k in the year) and the unemployment rate lifted to 4.3% from 3.9% which was a 30 year low in unemployment for that state. In Victoria, employment lifted 5.7k (+136.7k in the year) but with a lift in participation, the unemployment rate lifted to 4.8% from 4.6%. </span></p>
<p><span>Queensland employment lifted in February 6.4k (+20.4k in the year) but a decline in participation saw the unemployment rate dip to 5.4% from 6.1%. In WA employment rose 2.8k (+7.7k in the year) with the 1ppt fall in unemployment to 5.9% being supported by a 0.6ppt fall in participation. Meanwhile in SA a lift in employment 3.8k (–0.1k in the year) in February saw the unemployment rate ease back 0.6ppt to 5.7%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>Overall, while the annual pace of employment growth has picked up in Victoria, and eased back in NSW, NSW can still claim the mantle of having the lowest unemployment rate.</p>
<p> <span>Victoria was the state showing the greatest improvement through 2018 with the unemployment rate down 2ppts to 4.2% in December while in NSW unemployment fell just 0.5ppts to 4.3%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>We are closely watching how these trends continue through 2019 – NSW did surprise in January by dipping below 4%, but it has since bounced back to 4.3%, while Victoria’s improvement does look to be cooling with the unemployment rate holding above 4.5%.</p>
<p>It is these two states, and how their labour markets will respond to falling house prices, a contraction in construction activity and weak retail sales, that is behind our expectation for the unemployment rate to rise through the first half of this year. While we are cautious about interpreting too much from the January/February releases, we see nothing in them that makes us nervous about our forecasts.</p>
<p><span>It is also worth noting that in 2018, for all the strength in the labour market, the underemployment rate only declined 0.2ppt. So far there has been a further improvement with the rate falling from 8.3% in December to 8.1% in February. Again, we would caution that so far we have only see the January and February prints, so would not project that this improvement can be sustained, but nevertheless, it is another indicator of just how robust the labour market was at the end of 2018.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>For 2019, we are looking for a pause in the pace in employment growth due to the economic uncertainties surrounding the Federal Election at the same time as we expect to see a moderation in momentum in NSW and Victoria on the back of a moderation in housing activity. With reasonable estimates for the participation rate, our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.</p>
<p><em>JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac</em><span><br></span></p>
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Australian employment saw a February pause: Justin Smirk

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.37% in January to –0.56% in February.</span></p>
<p>The Index has now registered three consecutive months in which the growth rate has been negative. This is a strengthening signal that growth through the first two to three quarters of 2019 is likely to be below trend.</p>
<p>The signal from the Index is certainly consistent with the weak momentum in the second half of 2018 revealed in the print of the December quarter national accounts. In the second half of 2018 growth momentum slowed to an annualised pace of 1% from a 4% pace in the first half of the year.</p>
<p>Westpac expects growth in the Australian economy in 2019 to be around 2.2% – significantly below trend which is generally assessed as 2.75%.</p>
<p>Key to the ongoing slow growth will be a challenged consumer as households adjust to much slower wages growth than anticipated and falling house prices. That will be supplemented by a continuation of the contraction in residential house building activity that appears to have begun in the September quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>We have consistently highlighted these risks which are likely to coincide with a slowdown in jobs growth and investment spending as both political uncertainty and global volatility weigh on firms’ employment and investment decisions.</p>
<p>The Index growth rate has shown a significant deterioration over the last six months, declining from +0.47% in September to –0.56% in February. Five components have driven the deterioration: US industrial production (–0.31ppts); the S&amp;P/ASX200 (–0.30ppts); the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations index (–0.22ppts); the yield spread (–0.19ppts); and dwelling approvals (–0.10ppts).</p>
<p>The only component providing a partially offset is the commodity prices in Australian dollar terms (+0.12ppts). The contribution from the remaining components – monthly hours worked and the Westpac MI CSI expectations index – has been largely unchanged.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/westpac%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/westpac%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 2. The minutes of the March Board meeting highlight the importance of data releases going forward with the key issue being the “tension” between soft activity indicators and strong labour market data. It will take time for the Bank to resolve those tensions but we expect that by the August meeting the case for lower rates will be clear.</p>
<p>At present the Bank is forecasting growth of 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. The signals, some of which are discussed in this release, are pointing to much slower growth. We expect the Bank’s growth forecasts to be lowered in both May and August with the forecasts in August being consistent with the need for easier policy.</p>
<p>Westpac expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in both August and November.</p>
<p><em>BILL EVANS</em><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Leading Index growth rate firmly in negative territory: Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Australia’s big little economic lie was laid bare on Wednesday.</p>
<p>National accounts figures show that the Australian economy grew <a href="http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/7F1A83D8EEABAF73CA2583B40018551F/%24File/52060_dec%202018.pdf" target="_blank">by just 0.2%</a> in the last quarter of 2018. This disappointing result was below market expectations and official forecasts of 0.6%. It put annual growth for the year at just 2.3%.</p>
<p>But the shocking revelation was that Gross Domestic Product per person (a more relevant measure of living standards) actually slipped in the December quarter by 0.2%, on the back of a fall of 0.1% in the September quarter.</p>
<p>These are the first back-to-back quarters of negative GDP per capita growth in 13 years - since 2006.</p>
<p><strong>We’re going backwards, for the first time in 13 years</strong></p>
<p>The reason this is significant is that the Australian convention around what constitutes a recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth.</p>
<p>Since more people in the economy mechanically increases overall GDP, you might think that measuring things on a per-person basis gives a better sense of whether we are better off or worse off.</p>
<p>And you would be right. Why then, do we talk so much about overall GDP?</p>
<p>One answer is that in a lot of advanced economies there isn’t very much population growth, so overall GDP is a good enough measure.</p>
<p><strong>Population growth hides it</strong></p>
<p>The more insidious answer in Australia is that, for a long time, our high population growth, fed by a high immigration rate, has masked a much less rosy picture of how we are doing. And neither side of politics has wanted to admit it.</p>
<p>At 1.6% a year, Australia’s population growth is roughly double the OECD average, which is perhaps why we hear politicians say things like “Australia continues to grow faster than all of the G7 nations except the United States,” as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg did this week.</p>
<p>The good news is that standard economic theory tells us that in the long run, immigration has very little impact on GDP per capita in either direction, unless it drives a shift in the population’s mix of skills.</p>
<p>But in the short term, it depresses GDP per capita because fixed capital such as buildings and machines has to be shared between more workers.</p>
<p>The business lobby doesn’t want us to focus on that because population provides more customers as well as more workers, allowing them to grow without growing domestic market share or exports.</p>
<p>Governments don’t want us to focus on it because adjusting for population growth makes GDP growth look small or, as at present, negative. Also, the tax revenue from the population growth is factored into the official budget forecasts – but the extra social spending needed isn’t always factored in.</p>
<p>Pro tip: watch for population growth as a fudge factor generating a return to surplus in next month’s budget.</p>
<p><strong>There’s a better way of getting at the truth</strong></p>
<p>That said, GDP itself – per capita or not – is not a great measure of the standard of living. That’s why in 2001, the Bureau of Statistics began also reporting <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/3d68c56307742d8fca257090002029cd/3fa94a5da5f20eddca256b7400730b78!OpenDocument" target="_blank">real net national disposable income</a>.</p>
<p>It is a measure with advantages over GDP. As the bureau points out, it takes account of changes in the prices of our exports relative to the prices of our imports - our terms of trade. If the prices of our exports were increasing much faster than the prices of our imports (as happened during the mining booms), our standard of living would climb and real net national disposable income would reflect it, where as gross domestic product would not, although it would reflect increased income from increased export volumes.</p>
<p>To get at living standards per person, which is what we are really interested in, the bureau also publishes real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262582/original/file-20190307-100799-crlh9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p>The graph shows that so far the growth rate of real net national disposable income per capita hasn’t changed much, and that it has been negative for far fewer quarters than in the Coalition’s first term in office.</p>
<p>It bounces around with changes in the prices of imports and exports, and is generally climbing less than when export prices were really high.</p>
<p><strong>A year of two halves?</strong></p>
<p>The treasurer painted 2018 as a “year of two halves”.</p>
<p>The first half was great - the annualised GDP growth rate (what it would have been had it continued all year) was a very impressive 3.8%.</p>
<p>The second half was just 1%.</p>
<p>I’m not sure the change was that clear cut. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-national-accounts-show-past-performance-no-guarantee-of-future-results-102717" target="_blank">last September</a>, there have been troubling signs for some time, despite the solid headline growth.</p>
<p>Household savings have been plummeting, real wage growth has been stagnant, housing prices have been falling in Sydney and Melbourne. Together they put significant pressure on household spending, which accounts for about 60% of GDP.</p>
<p>Those concerns are now mainstream. Good news on export prices has rescued tax receipts for the time being, and will probably also rescue real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p>But the fundamentals of the Australian economy are looking somewhat weak. Like the US and other advanced economies, we are living in an era of secular stagnation – a protracted period of much lower growth than we had come to expect.</p>
<p>And until we do something to tackle it, such as a major government investment in physical and social infrastructure, we will continue to face anaemic wage growth, shaky consumer confidence, and mediocre economic growth per person.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113026/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australias-sudden-ultra-low-economic-growth-ought-not-to-have-come-as-surprise-113026" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Australia’s sudden ultra-low economic growth ought not to have come as surprise: Richard Holden

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<p>Dwelling investment increased 1.0% in the quarter, and has risen in each of the last four quarters, according to the Q3 Report released by NAB.</p>
<p>However this quarter, NAB found that the increase was entirely driven by alterations &amp; additions (up 4.5% q/q), as investment in new dwellings fell 0.8% q/q.</p>
<p>Alongside the cooling in the housing market, NAB expect dwelling investment to decline over the next couple of years.</p>
<p>Alan Olster, NAB Group Chief Economist said that a pull-back in new building approvals is already evident, though the large pipeline of work yet to be done will provide some support, suggesting the real weakness will likely occur in 2020.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/NAB%20Q3.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The report also found that underlying business investment declined for the second consecutive quarter (-1.9% q/q).</p>
<p>Reflected largely by a fall in non-dwelling construction (-5.6% q/q) as both new building and new engineering construction declined.</p>
<p>Mr Olster noted, "the weakness in non-dwelling construction appears to be at least partly related to the mining sector as despite overall non-mining investment being up (1.0% q/q),  mining sector investment declined 7.5% q/q."</p>
<p>"There was a large fall in Northern Territory non-dwelling construction, he added"</p>
<p>As the tail-end of the construction phase of the LNG mega-projects wraps up, NAB expect mining investment to stabilise, with some potential upside given the improvement in business conditions in the sector.</p>
<p>Following the latest releases of growth, labour market and prices data, NAB have stated they are reassessing their view on monetary policy.</p>
<p>They currently have the next cash rate movement forecast as an increase in mid 2019, but are in the process of reviewing this statement.</p>
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Increase in dwelling investment driven by renovations: NAB

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The internet is transforming every aspect of our lives. It has become indispensable. But, so far, according to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joes.12211" target="_blank">a new meta-analysis we have published in the Journal of Economic Surveys</a>, the internet has done next to nothing for economic growth.</p>
<p>Vast resources have been thrown at information and communication technologies. Yet despite exponential growth in ICT and its integration into almost all aspects of our lives, economic growth is not demonstrably faster (and at the moment is demonstrably slower) than it was beforehand.</p>
<p>As Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow famously put it, “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”</p>
<p>This productivity paradox has caused angst and raised questions about whether the trillions invested in ICT could have been better invested elsewhere.</p>
<p><strong>Our study of studies</strong></p>
<p>We reassessed ICT through a meta-analysis of 59 econometric studies incorporating 466 different observations in both developed and developing countries. We divided ICT into three categories: computing, mobile and landline telephone connections, and the internet. For developed countries, we found that computing had had a moderate impact on growth. Mobile and landline telephone technologies also had a small effect.</p>
<p>But the internet has had no effect, at least not as far as can be ascertained from the research to date.</p>
<p><strong>The promise not yet delivered</strong></p>
<p>Ever since the Industrial Revolution, innovation and technological change have driven rising productivity and economic growth.</p>
<p>Information and communications technologies ought to follow in those footsteps.</p>
<p>Instead, productivity growth in US manufacturing has <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/article/multifactor-productivity-slowdown-in-us-manufacturing.htm" target="_blank">slid</a> from 2% per year between 1992 to 2004 to minus 0.3% per year between 2005 and 2016.</p>
<p>Where ICT innovations <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/20777587?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" target="_blank">do lead to an increase in productivity</a>, it’s often a one-off boost rather than an <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544" target="_blank">ongoing increase year after year</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Where the internet sends us backwards</strong></p>
<p>More disquieting, there is some evidence suggesting that rather than contributing to economic performance, some parts of ICT can harm it.</p>
<p>The internet can be an enabler of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/202162/the-procrastination-equation-by-piers-steel/9780307357175" target="_blank">procrastination</a>. Cyberslacking can take up to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0747563211000604" target="_blank">three hours of work a day</a>.</p>
<p>It isn’t all bad. Many of us get a lot of joy from catching up on social media and watching dog and cat videos. But if everyone is distracted by it, little gets done.</p>
<p>The internet has also enabled greater flexibility in work, another plus. But if it contributes little to economic growth, it is worth asking whether our economic managers should continue to fund its expansion.</p>
<p><strong>No saviour for developing nations</strong></p>
<p>For developing countries, generating economic growth is pressing because resources are scarce. ICT has been <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2422" target="_blank">held out as a saviour</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, it has almost always been found that more obvious innovations, such as running water, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544" target="_blank">electricity</a>, and primary education for girls, have bigger payoffs.</p>
<p>Our own findings show that developing countries benefit from landline and mobile phone technologies but not at all from computing, at least not yet. ICT might need to reach a <a href="http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199548798.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199548798-e-005" target="_blank">critical size</a> before its effects matter.</p>
<p><strong>But maybe later, down the track</strong></p>
<p>The time it takes for ICT investment to generate economic growth might be longer than expected, and it might need to reach an even bigger critical mass before that happens.</p>
<p>But it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, for the immediate future, growth will continue to depend upon more traditional sources: trade between nations, education, new ideas, the rule of law, sound political institutions, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-listen-to-the-rich-inequality-is-bad-for-everyone-81952" target="_blank">curtailing inequality</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these are under threat from growing nationalism and protectionism in the United States and elsewhere. The evidence to date suggests that we would be better off fighting those threats than investing still more in an information technology revolution that has yet to deliver.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105294/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Chris Doucouliagos</strong>, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Tom Stanley</strong>, Professor of Meta-Analysis, Deakin University</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-internet-has-done-a-lot-but-so-far-little-for-economic-growth-105294" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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The internet has done a lot, but so far little for economic growth

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy.</span></p>
<p><strong>First – the economy grew solidly over the last year</strong></p>
<p><span>After several years of muddling along the Australian economy actually perked up over the last year with GDP growing a surprisingly strong 3.4% year on year, its fastest since 2012.</span></p>
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<p><span>That growth has been able to range between just below 2% and just above 3% over the last six years despite a large drag on growth from the fall back in mining investment is actually pretty good. But it’s below the norm for Australia, which has averaged around 3% GDP growth per annum over the very long term. It should also be remembered that strong population growth has been one of the reasons for the relative resilience of Australia’s economy, but over the last year per capita GDP growth at 1.8% has been running below that in the US and in line with that in Europe.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Second – growth is likely to slow a bit from here</strong></p>
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<p><span>While economic growth averaged a strong 1% quarterly pace in </span>the first half of the year it’s likely to slow going forward:</p>
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<li>The housing construction cycle is turning down as approvals trend down and the cranes come down. Falling alterations and additions won’t help.</li>
<li>Growth in consumer spending is likely to slow given weak wages growth, high levels of underemployment and slowing wealth gains as home prices fall. With falling home prices its unlikely that households will be prepared to keep running down the household saving rate – which is now at a 10 year low of just 1% - to make up for weak income growth.</li>
<li>Business investment plans for the current financial year are still subdued pointing to roughly flat investment (if plans for this year are compared with those made a year ago) and political uncertainty could start to weigh ahead of a potential change in government.</li>
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<li>Drought could knock 0.5 percentage points off economic growth this year.</li>
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<p><span>While agricultural production as a share of GDP is now just </span>2.5%, a 20% slump in farm production as seen in past droughts would still knock 0.5% off economic growth. If it turns into an El Nino phenomenon it could be worse.</p>
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<p><strong>Third – but it’s not going into recession</strong></p>
<p>Despite these drags, recession will continue to be avoided justas it has been over the past 27 years:</p>
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<li>Over the past five years or so the slump in mining investment back to more normal levels has knocked around 1.5% per annum from GDP growth. However, mining investment is no longer 7% of the economy and it’s near the bottom so its drag on GDP growth is approaching zero.</li>
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<li>Public infrastructure spending is rising and has further to go.</li>
<li>Net exports are likely to add to growth as the completion of resources projects boosts resources export volumes, although a US/China trade war is a threat here.</li>
<li>Profits for listed companies are rising in contrast to the 2014-16 period. This is a positive for investment.</li>
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<p><span>While profit growth has slowed from 17% in 2016-17 to </span>around 8% it’s positive and 77% of companies in the recent reporting season (the highest since the GFC) have seen rising profits with 86% of companies raising or maintaining their dividends indicating confidence in the outlook.</p>
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<p><span>So while housing construction will slow and consumer spending is constrained, a lessening drag from mining investment and slightly stronger non-mining investment along with solid export growth provide an offset and are expected to see growth between 2.5-3% going forward. Down from over the last year and slower than the RBA expects, but stronger than many doomsters see.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Fourth – spare capacity will remain for a while yet</strong></p>
<p>With the economy’s potential (or sustainable) growth rate <span>running around 2.75% and actual economic growth likely to run <span>around this spare capacity in the economy will be with us for a <span>while yet. To use it up we really need a long period of </span>above </span></span>trend economic growth, but this looks unlikely. Spare capacity remains most obvious in the labour market where the underutilisation rate remains historically high at near 14%. With it likely to remain high for some time to come it’s hard to see much acceleration in wage growth or inflation in the economy.</p>
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<strong>Fifth – which means RBA rate hikes are a long way off</strong><br><div class="layoutArea">
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<p><span>The RBA’s forecasts for continuing solid economic growth and a gradual rise in underlying inflation argue against a rate cut and support the case for an eventual hike. But our more constrained view on growth implying lower for longer wages growth and inflation along with the risks posed by likely further falls in Sydney and Melbourne home prices, tightening bank lending standards and the drought indicate a rate hike is unlikely to be justified any time soon. The next move in rates is probably still up but not until second half 2020 at the earliest and there is a risk that the next move will actually be down if falling home prices pose a significant threat to consumer spending and inflation starts falling again.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Implications for investors</strong></p>
<p><span><span>There are several implications for Australian investors.</span></span></p>
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<p><span>First, continuing growth should provide support for reasonable </span>returns from Australian growth assets.</p>
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<p><span>Second, bank deposits are likely to provide poor returns for </span>investors for a while yet.</p>
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<p><span>Third, while Australian shares are great for income, global </span>shares are likely to remain outperformers for capital growth.</p>
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<p>Finally, the outlook remains for a further fall in the $A. With the RBA comfortably on hold and the Fed raising rates every three months (with the next move coming this month), the interest rate gap between Australia and the US will go further into negative territory making it even more attractive to park money in the US and not Australia which will drag the $A down. Threats to global growth from a trade war and problems in emerging countries will also weigh on the $A.</p>
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<p><em>Dr Shane Oliver<br>Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital</em></p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Five things you need to know about the Australian economy: Shane Oliver

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The disturbing trend of persistently low inflation continues, as Wednesday’s data release shows.</p>
<p>Headline inflation was 2.1% for the last 12 months. But the more relevant “underlying” rate came in at 1.9%. This is even below the 2.0% the RBA forecast in May.</p>
<p>Given that the RBA’s target band for inflation is 2-3%, and that inflation has barely touched the bottom of that band over a protracted period, there are implications for monetary policy.</p>
<p>But, before we get to that, the obvious question to ask is: why is inflation so low?</p>
<p>One strand of thinking involves the “Philips Curve”. This basically says that low unemployment pushes up wages growth and hence inflation.</p>
<p>We could get into a long discussion of whether the current 5.4% unemployment rate is “low”. And whether the effective rate really is 5.4% given anecdotal evidence about “underemployment”, the impact of recent decisions on penalty rates and minimum wage rises, and the robot revolution as a backdrop to the whole labour market.</p>
<p>But we don’t need to go there. There is barely any evidence of the Philips Curve in the data over the past quarter century, so let’s just reject that theory and move on.</p>
<p><strong>Plausible factors keeping a lid on inflation</strong></p>
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<li>
<p><strong>Technology</strong>. The information technology and internet revolution has made lots of things much cheaper. Take music. Gone are the days of paying A$20-plus for a CD with maybe 16 songs on it. Streaming services like Apple Music and Spotify give access to literally millions of songs for a small monthly fee.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>China</strong>. The rise of Chinese manufacturing has led to everything from kids’ toys to cell phones being produced vastly more cheaply than if those things were manufactured with higher-cost labour.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Globalisation and trade</strong>. The world has become radically more connected, and so have company supply chains. This not only allows access to lower-cost manufacturing but also leads to better specialisation through the principle of comparative advantage. This means that high-labour-cost countries like Australia can specialise in other components of goods and services, get better at producing those components, and reduce overall costs further.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Wages</strong>. Wage growth has been subdued for a long time now. Since labour costs are an important component of many goods and services, this has served to tame inflation. One potential reason for low wage growth is that automation sits as a background threat to human labour. If labour costs get too high then processes get automated, which serves to keep wages in check.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Leverage and consumer spending</strong>. A final factor is that given how heavily indebted Australian households are –largely through mortgage debt – they simply don’t have a lot of discretionary income. This limits consumer spending and makes price rises in the retail sector less likely.</p>
</li>
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<p>These factors don’t look likely to change any time soon – with the possible exception of trade due to the Trump trade war. But even if that escalates dramatically it will shrink economic activity, further depressing prices.</p>
<p>So we have long-run, persistently low inflation. Is that a problem?</p>
<p>The major concern is that it could turn into deflation, although that doesn’t look terribly likely right now.</p>
<p>If, however, there was another significant economic downturn then deflation is a very real prospect. That would raise the spectre of Japan’s experience of the 1990s where deflation caused people to hoard money, severely contracting economic activity.</p>
<p>But for now the real impact of low inflation is on the RBA.</p>
<p>Faced with inflation below its target band for an extended period, the standard response would be to cut interest rates. The RBA is clearly worried about doing this.</p>
<p>One reason is housing prices – the RBA is worried about further fuelling the bubble.</p>
<p>With housing prices easing, this may become less of a concern, although household debt levels remain extremely high. Not encouraging households to become further indebted seems like a reasonable concern.</p>
<p>A second reason the RBA may be nervous about cutting rates is that it doesn’t have very far to go with the cash rate at 1.50%. If there is another major economic downturn then the RBA wants to have some firepower left to respond.</p>
<p>If short-term rates were already near zero then the only tools available to the central bank would be non-standard measures such as quantitative easing. That would be uncharted territory for the RBA, which seems reticent to explore that territory.</p>
<p>So, as with economic growth and wage rises, the RBA response seems to involve crossing as many fingers and toes as possible and to publicly proclaim that things are looking good, but may take a while.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100514/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">We will get a better look into how that strategy is going when wage price index figures are released mid-August.</p>
<p><em><strong>Richard Holden</strong>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW</em></p>
<p><em>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-inflation-misses-again-so-where-does-the-rba-go-next-100514" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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