<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Prospects of another soft economic quarter: Alan Oster

How the global picture affects the economic outlook and monetary policy: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>It is true that wage inflation has lifted off its record low of 1.9%yr in June 2017 but running at a 2.3%yr at March 2019 it can hardly be described as running at a breakneck pace. We expect wage inflation to drift higher from here - our forecasts have it peaking around 2.75%yr in 2020 - but given how well contained the wage inflation is across the nation, and between sectors, even this modest increase looks optimistic with the risks to this forecast more to the downside than upside.</p>
<p>In the March quarter, total hourly wages ex bonuses rose 0.5% compared to a market median (and Westpac) expectation for 0.6%. The print was 0.54% at two decimal places with a 0.54% rise in private sectors wage rates and a smaller 0.45% rise in public wages - the smallest quarterly rise in public sector wages since March 2000. It appears that state governments, where revenues are under pressure from declining stamp duty collection, are pushing back against rising wage costs.</p>
<p>Private sector wages printed 0.54% in the last two quarters, but with base effects, the annual pace did drift a little higher to 2.4%yr - the fastest pace since December 2014 but still not exciting. Public sector wage inflation eased to 2.4%yr from a recent peak of 2.6%yr in September 2018, and on current trends, is likely to continue to moderate from here.</p>
<p>An annual pace of wages growth of 2.3%yr is a modest lift from the 2.1%yr pace it held from December 2017 to September 2018 which, in itself, was a very modest improvement from the record low of 1.9%yr in the four quarters before 2017 Q3. So while it is clear that wages have picked up a little and are off the record lows wage inflation is well contained and holding under the historical average.</p>
<p>Since 2018, Westpac watched the rapid fall in the Victorian unemployment rate, and because of this, we are now looking for signs of an acceleration in wage inflation there. In the March quarter, Victorian wages lifted 0.5%qtr, a moderation from the 0.8% gain in Q4, but with base effects, the annual pace was flat at 2.7%yr - the fastest pace by any state and the fastest pace in that state since December 2014.</p>
<p><em><strong>JUSTIN SMIRK</strong> is ‎a senior economist for Westpac.</em></p>
<p><em>You can read the  full report here: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/May/Wages-FIQ12019.pdf" target="_blank">WPI First Impressions pdf 390kb</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The economic data around wages continues to disappoint: Westpac's Justin Smirk  

<html><body>
<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>February Labour Force Survey: Total employment: 4.6k from 38.3k (revised from 39.1k), unemployment rate: 4.9% from 5.0% (unrevised 5.0%), participation rate: 65.6% from 65.7% (unrevised 65.7%).</span></p>
<p><span>Employment growth slowed in February lifting 4.6k less than what the market was looking for (median +15k) but a touch better than Westpac’s forecast of –5k. So far 2019 has had a sound start for the labour market with a three month average gain of 21.1k/per month. </span></p>
<p><span>Through 2018 total employment grew 274.5k, or 2.2%yr, with a solid momentum into year end with a six month annualised pace of 2.3%yr. </span></p>
<p><span>While it is just second month into the year, employment grew 284k in the year to February (2.3%yr) but the six month annualised pace has moderated from 2.9%yr in January to 2.3%yr in February.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%201.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span><span>As highlighted in our preview we are very cautious about making too much of the January/February releases given the large underlying seasonality in these months. However, what we can say is that it does appear that the momentum in employment has slowed. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>As such, there is nothing in this release to make us change our view that employment growth will take a breather through the first half of 2019 leading to a lift in unemployment. But, to be fair, the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% also means that at this point in time, the RBA will also feel little pressure to change their forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to 4¾%.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span> It will all come down to who is the better forecaster.</span></span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</span></p>
<p><span><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%202.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span>In February, in reverse to the January result, the mix of employment gains painted a soft picture with a 7.3k loss in full-time employment offset by an 11.9k gain in part-time employment. However, hours worked was a bit more upbeat in the month with total hours worked up 0.2% (total employment was flat in the month) as hours worked per person gained 0.1% due to average hours worked rising for both full-time and part-time employees. </span></p>
<p><span>In the year to February total hours worked has lifted 2.2%yr which is on par with the 2.3%yr pace for employment.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%203.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>Despite the soft print on employment, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% (market median was 5.0%) as a 0.1ppt decline in the participation rate to 65.6% (65.57% at two decimal places) resulted in a –7.1k decline in the labour force. At this stage it appears that both male and female participation is levelling out in a trend sense and we are closely watching where they go next. We do expect both to edge lower though 2019 H1 as employment growth stalls.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%204.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p><span>February was a soft month for employment growth across the states. Employment fell 5.8k in NSW (+128.9k in the year) and the unemployment rate lifted to 4.3% from 3.9% which was a 30 year low in unemployment for that state. In Victoria, employment lifted 5.7k (+136.7k in the year) but with a lift in participation, the unemployment rate lifted to 4.8% from 4.6%. </span></p>
<p><span>Queensland employment lifted in February 6.4k (+20.4k in the year) but a decline in participation saw the unemployment rate dip to 5.4% from 6.1%. In WA employment rose 2.8k (+7.7k in the year) with the 1ppt fall in unemployment to 5.9% being supported by a 0.6ppt fall in participation. Meanwhile in SA a lift in employment 3.8k (–0.1k in the year) in February saw the unemployment rate ease back 0.6ppt to 5.7%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>Overall, while the annual pace of employment growth has picked up in Victoria, and eased back in NSW, NSW can still claim the mantle of having the lowest unemployment rate.</p>
<p> <span>Victoria was the state showing the greatest improvement through 2018 with the unemployment rate down 2ppts to 4.2% in December while in NSW unemployment fell just 0.5ppts to 4.3%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%206.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>We are closely watching how these trends continue through 2019 – NSW did surprise in January by dipping below 4%, but it has since bounced back to 4.3%, while Victoria’s improvement does look to be cooling with the unemployment rate holding above 4.5%.</p>
<p>It is these two states, and how their labour markets will respond to falling house prices, a contraction in construction activity and weak retail sales, that is behind our expectation for the unemployment rate to rise through the first half of this year. While we are cautious about interpreting too much from the January/February releases, we see nothing in them that makes us nervous about our forecasts.</p>
<p><span>It is also worth noting that in 2018, for all the strength in the labour market, the underemployment rate only declined 0.2ppt. So far there has been a further improvement with the rate falling from 8.3% in December to 8.1% in February. Again, we would caution that so far we have only see the January and February prints, so would not project that this improvement can be sustained, but nevertheless, it is another indicator of just how robust the labour market was at the end of 2018.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/employment%207.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: Westpac</p>
<p>For 2019, we are looking for a pause in the pace in employment growth due to the economic uncertainties surrounding the Federal Election at the same time as we expect to see a moderation in momentum in NSW and Victoria on the back of a moderation in housing activity. With reasonable estimates for the participation rate, our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.</p>
<p><em>JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac</em><span><br></span></p>
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Australian employment saw a February pause: Justin Smirk

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.37% in January to –0.56% in February.</span></p>
<p>The Index has now registered three consecutive months in which the growth rate has been negative. This is a strengthening signal that growth through the first two to three quarters of 2019 is likely to be below trend.</p>
<p>The signal from the Index is certainly consistent with the weak momentum in the second half of 2018 revealed in the print of the December quarter national accounts. In the second half of 2018 growth momentum slowed to an annualised pace of 1% from a 4% pace in the first half of the year.</p>
<p>Westpac expects growth in the Australian economy in 2019 to be around 2.2% – significantly below trend which is generally assessed as 2.75%.</p>
<p>Key to the ongoing slow growth will be a challenged consumer as households adjust to much slower wages growth than anticipated and falling house prices. That will be supplemented by a continuation of the contraction in residential house building activity that appears to have begun in the September quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>We have consistently highlighted these risks which are likely to coincide with a slowdown in jobs growth and investment spending as both political uncertainty and global volatility weigh on firms’ employment and investment decisions.</p>
<p>The Index growth rate has shown a significant deterioration over the last six months, declining from +0.47% in September to –0.56% in February. Five components have driven the deterioration: US industrial production (–0.31ppts); the S&amp;P/ASX200 (–0.30ppts); the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations index (–0.22ppts); the yield spread (–0.19ppts); and dwelling approvals (–0.10ppts).</p>
<p>The only component providing a partially offset is the commodity prices in Australian dollar terms (+0.12ppts). The contribution from the remaining components – monthly hours worked and the Westpac MI CSI expectations index – has been largely unchanged.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/21/westpac%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/21/westpac%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 2. The minutes of the March Board meeting highlight the importance of data releases going forward with the key issue being the “tension” between soft activity indicators and strong labour market data. It will take time for the Bank to resolve those tensions but we expect that by the August meeting the case for lower rates will be clear.</p>
<p>At present the Bank is forecasting growth of 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. The signals, some of which are discussed in this release, are pointing to much slower growth. We expect the Bank’s growth forecasts to be lowered in both May and August with the forecasts in August being consistent with the need for easier policy.</p>
<p>Westpac expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in both August and November.</p>
<p><em>BILL EVANS</em><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Leading Index growth rate firmly in negative territory: Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Australia’s big little economic lie was laid bare on Wednesday.</p>
<p>National accounts figures show that the Australian economy grew <a href="http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/7F1A83D8EEABAF73CA2583B40018551F/%24File/52060_dec%202018.pdf" target="_blank">by just 0.2%</a> in the last quarter of 2018. This disappointing result was below market expectations and official forecasts of 0.6%. It put annual growth for the year at just 2.3%.</p>
<p>But the shocking revelation was that Gross Domestic Product per person (a more relevant measure of living standards) actually slipped in the December quarter by 0.2%, on the back of a fall of 0.1% in the September quarter.</p>
<p>These are the first back-to-back quarters of negative GDP per capita growth in 13 years - since 2006.</p>
<p><strong>We’re going backwards, for the first time in 13 years</strong></p>
<p>The reason this is significant is that the Australian convention around what constitutes a recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth.</p>
<p>Since more people in the economy mechanically increases overall GDP, you might think that measuring things on a per-person basis gives a better sense of whether we are better off or worse off.</p>
<p>And you would be right. Why then, do we talk so much about overall GDP?</p>
<p>One answer is that in a lot of advanced economies there isn’t very much population growth, so overall GDP is a good enough measure.</p>
<p><strong>Population growth hides it</strong></p>
<p>The more insidious answer in Australia is that, for a long time, our high population growth, fed by a high immigration rate, has masked a much less rosy picture of how we are doing. And neither side of politics has wanted to admit it.</p>
<p>At 1.6% a year, Australia’s population growth is roughly double the OECD average, which is perhaps why we hear politicians say things like “Australia continues to grow faster than all of the G7 nations except the United States,” as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg did this week.</p>
<p>The good news is that standard economic theory tells us that in the long run, immigration has very little impact on GDP per capita in either direction, unless it drives a shift in the population’s mix of skills.</p>
<p>But in the short term, it depresses GDP per capita because fixed capital such as buildings and machines has to be shared between more workers.</p>
<p>The business lobby doesn’t want us to focus on that because population provides more customers as well as more workers, allowing them to grow without growing domestic market share or exports.</p>
<p>Governments don’t want us to focus on it because adjusting for population growth makes GDP growth look small or, as at present, negative. Also, the tax revenue from the population growth is factored into the official budget forecasts – but the extra social spending needed isn’t always factored in.</p>
<p>Pro tip: watch for population growth as a fudge factor generating a return to surplus in next month’s budget.</p>
<p><strong>There’s a better way of getting at the truth</strong></p>
<p>That said, GDP itself – per capita or not – is not a great measure of the standard of living. That’s why in 2001, the Bureau of Statistics began also reporting <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/3d68c56307742d8fca257090002029cd/3fa94a5da5f20eddca256b7400730b78!OpenDocument" target="_blank">real net national disposable income</a>.</p>
<p>It is a measure with advantages over GDP. As the bureau points out, it takes account of changes in the prices of our exports relative to the prices of our imports - our terms of trade. If the prices of our exports were increasing much faster than the prices of our imports (as happened during the mining booms), our standard of living would climb and real net national disposable income would reflect it, where as gross domestic product would not, although it would reflect increased income from increased export volumes.</p>
<p>To get at living standards per person, which is what we are really interested in, the bureau also publishes real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262582/original/file-20190307-100799-crlh9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p>The graph shows that so far the growth rate of real net national disposable income per capita hasn’t changed much, and that it has been negative for far fewer quarters than in the Coalition’s first term in office.</p>
<p>It bounces around with changes in the prices of imports and exports, and is generally climbing less than when export prices were really high.</p>
<p><strong>A year of two halves?</strong></p>
<p>The treasurer painted 2018 as a “year of two halves”.</p>
<p>The first half was great - the annualised GDP growth rate (what it would have been had it continued all year) was a very impressive 3.8%.</p>
<p>The second half was just 1%.</p>
<p>I’m not sure the change was that clear cut. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-national-accounts-show-past-performance-no-guarantee-of-future-results-102717" target="_blank">last September</a>, there have been troubling signs for some time, despite the solid headline growth.</p>
<p>Household savings have been plummeting, real wage growth has been stagnant, housing prices have been falling in Sydney and Melbourne. Together they put significant pressure on household spending, which accounts for about 60% of GDP.</p>
<p>Those concerns are now mainstream. Good news on export prices has rescued tax receipts for the time being, and will probably also rescue real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p>But the fundamentals of the Australian economy are looking somewhat weak. Like the US and other advanced economies, we are living in an era of secular stagnation – a protracted period of much lower growth than we had come to expect.</p>
<p>And until we do something to tackle it, such as a major government investment in physical and social infrastructure, we will continue to face anaemic wage growth, shaky consumer confidence, and mediocre economic growth per person.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113026/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australias-sudden-ultra-low-economic-growth-ought-not-to-have-come-as-surprise-113026" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Australia’s sudden ultra-low economic growth ought not to have come as surprise: Richard Holden

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<p>Dwelling investment increased 1.0% in the quarter, and has risen in each of the last four quarters, according to the Q3 Report released by NAB.</p>
<p>However this quarter, NAB found that the increase was entirely driven by alterations &amp; additions (up 4.5% q/q), as investment in new dwellings fell 0.8% q/q.</p>
<p>Alongside the cooling in the housing market, NAB expect dwelling investment to decline over the next couple of years.</p>
<p>Alan Olster, NAB Group Chief Economist said that a pull-back in new building approvals is already evident, though the large pipeline of work yet to be done will provide some support, suggesting the real weakness will likely occur in 2020.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/NAB%20Q3.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The report also found that underlying business investment declined for the second consecutive quarter (-1.9% q/q).</p>
<p>Reflected largely by a fall in non-dwelling construction (-5.6% q/q) as both new building and new engineering construction declined.</p>
<p>Mr Olster noted, "the weakness in non-dwelling construction appears to be at least partly related to the mining sector as despite overall non-mining investment being up (1.0% q/q),  mining sector investment declined 7.5% q/q."</p>
<p>"There was a large fall in Northern Territory non-dwelling construction, he added"</p>
<p>As the tail-end of the construction phase of the LNG mega-projects wraps up, NAB expect mining investment to stabilise, with some potential upside given the improvement in business conditions in the sector.</p>
<p>Following the latest releases of growth, labour market and prices data, NAB have stated they are reassessing their view on monetary policy.</p>
<p>They currently have the next cash rate movement forecast as an increase in mid 2019, but are in the process of reviewing this statement.</p>
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Increase in dwelling investment driven by renovations: NAB

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The internet is transforming every aspect of our lives. It has become indispensable. But, so far, according to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joes.12211" target="_blank">a new meta-analysis we have published in the Journal of Economic Surveys</a>, the internet has done next to nothing for economic growth.</p>
<p>Vast resources have been thrown at information and communication technologies. Yet despite exponential growth in ICT and its integration into almost all aspects of our lives, economic growth is not demonstrably faster (and at the moment is demonstrably slower) than it was beforehand.</p>
<p>As Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow famously put it, “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”</p>
<p>This productivity paradox has caused angst and raised questions about whether the trillions invested in ICT could have been better invested elsewhere.</p>
<p><strong>Our study of studies</strong></p>
<p>We reassessed ICT through a meta-analysis of 59 econometric studies incorporating 466 different observations in both developed and developing countries. We divided ICT into three categories: computing, mobile and landline telephone connections, and the internet. For developed countries, we found that computing had had a moderate impact on growth. Mobile and landline telephone technologies also had a small effect.</p>
<p>But the internet has had no effect, at least not as far as can be ascertained from the research to date.</p>
<p><strong>The promise not yet delivered</strong></p>
<p>Ever since the Industrial Revolution, innovation and technological change have driven rising productivity and economic growth.</p>
<p>Information and communications technologies ought to follow in those footsteps.</p>
<p>Instead, productivity growth in US manufacturing has <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/article/multifactor-productivity-slowdown-in-us-manufacturing.htm" target="_blank">slid</a> from 2% per year between 1992 to 2004 to minus 0.3% per year between 2005 and 2016.</p>
<p>Where ICT innovations <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/20777587?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" target="_blank">do lead to an increase in productivity</a>, it’s often a one-off boost rather than an <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544" target="_blank">ongoing increase year after year</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Where the internet sends us backwards</strong></p>
<p>More disquieting, there is some evidence suggesting that rather than contributing to economic performance, some parts of ICT can harm it.</p>
<p>The internet can be an enabler of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/202162/the-procrastination-equation-by-piers-steel/9780307357175" target="_blank">procrastination</a>. Cyberslacking can take up to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0747563211000604" target="_blank">three hours of work a day</a>.</p>
<p>It isn’t all bad. Many of us get a lot of joy from catching up on social media and watching dog and cat videos. But if everyone is distracted by it, little gets done.</p>
<p>The internet has also enabled greater flexibility in work, another plus. But if it contributes little to economic growth, it is worth asking whether our economic managers should continue to fund its expansion.</p>
<p><strong>No saviour for developing nations</strong></p>
<p>For developing countries, generating economic growth is pressing because resources are scarce. ICT has been <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2422" target="_blank">held out as a saviour</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, it has almost always been found that more obvious innovations, such as running water, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544" target="_blank">electricity</a>, and primary education for girls, have bigger payoffs.</p>
<p>Our own findings show that developing countries benefit from landline and mobile phone technologies but not at all from computing, at least not yet. ICT might need to reach a <a href="http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199548798.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199548798-e-005" target="_blank">critical size</a> before its effects matter.</p>
<p><strong>But maybe later, down the track</strong></p>
<p>The time it takes for ICT investment to generate economic growth might be longer than expected, and it might need to reach an even bigger critical mass before that happens.</p>
<p>But it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, for the immediate future, growth will continue to depend upon more traditional sources: trade between nations, education, new ideas, the rule of law, sound political institutions, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-listen-to-the-rich-inequality-is-bad-for-everyone-81952" target="_blank">curtailing inequality</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, these are under threat from growing nationalism and protectionism in the United States and elsewhere. The evidence to date suggests that we would be better off fighting those threats than investing still more in an information technology revolution that has yet to deliver.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105294/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Chris Doucouliagos</strong>, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Tom Stanley</strong>, Professor of Meta-Analysis, Deakin University</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-internet-has-done-a-lot-but-so-far-little-for-economic-growth-105294" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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The internet has done a lot, but so far little for economic growth

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy.</span></p>
<p><strong>First – the economy grew solidly over the last year</strong></p>
<p><span>After several years of muddling along the Australian economy actually perked up over the last year with GDP growing a surprisingly strong 3.4% year on year, its fastest since 2012.</span></p>
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<p><span>That growth has been able to range between just below 2% and just above 3% over the last six years despite a large drag on growth from the fall back in mining investment is actually pretty good. But it’s below the norm for Australia, which has averaged around 3% GDP growth per annum over the very long term. It should also be remembered that strong population growth has been one of the reasons for the relative resilience of Australia’s economy, but over the last year per capita GDP growth at 1.8% has been running below that in the US and in line with that in Europe.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Second – growth is likely to slow a bit from here</strong></p>
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<p><span>While economic growth averaged a strong 1% quarterly pace in </span>the first half of the year it’s likely to slow going forward:</p>
<ul>
<li>The housing construction cycle is turning down as approvals trend down and the cranes come down. Falling alterations and additions won’t help.</li>
<li>Growth in consumer spending is likely to slow given weak wages growth, high levels of underemployment and slowing wealth gains as home prices fall. With falling home prices its unlikely that households will be prepared to keep running down the household saving rate – which is now at a 10 year low of just 1% - to make up for weak income growth.</li>
<li>Business investment plans for the current financial year are still subdued pointing to roughly flat investment (if plans for this year are compared with those made a year ago) and political uncertainty could start to weigh ahead of a potential change in government.</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/6/amp%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<li>Drought could knock 0.5 percentage points off economic growth this year.</li>
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<p><span>While agricultural production as a share of GDP is now just </span>2.5%, a 20% slump in farm production as seen in past droughts would still knock 0.5% off economic growth. If it turns into an El Nino phenomenon it could be worse.</p>
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<p><strong>Third – but it’s not going into recession</strong></p>
<p>Despite these drags, recession will continue to be avoided justas it has been over the past 27 years:</p>
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<li>Over the past five years or so the slump in mining investment back to more normal levels has knocked around 1.5% per annum from GDP growth. However, mining investment is no longer 7% of the economy and it’s near the bottom so its drag on GDP growth is approaching zero.</li>
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<li>Public infrastructure spending is rising and has further to go.</li>
<li>Net exports are likely to add to growth as the completion of resources projects boosts resources export volumes, although a US/China trade war is a threat here.</li>
<li>Profits for listed companies are rising in contrast to the 2014-16 period. This is a positive for investment.</li>
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<p><span>While profit growth has slowed from 17% in 2016-17 to </span>around 8% it’s positive and 77% of companies in the recent reporting season (the highest since the GFC) have seen rising profits with 86% of companies raising or maintaining their dividends indicating confidence in the outlook.</p>
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<p><span>So while housing construction will slow and consumer spending is constrained, a lessening drag from mining investment and slightly stronger non-mining investment along with solid export growth provide an offset and are expected to see growth between 2.5-3% going forward. Down from over the last year and slower than the RBA expects, but stronger than many doomsters see.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Fourth – spare capacity will remain for a while yet</strong></p>
<p>With the economy’s potential (or sustainable) growth rate <span>running around 2.75% and actual economic growth likely to run <span>around this spare capacity in the economy will be with us for a <span>while yet. To use it up we really need a long period of </span>above </span></span>trend economic growth, but this looks unlikely. Spare capacity remains most obvious in the labour market where the underutilisation rate remains historically high at near 14%. With it likely to remain high for some time to come it’s hard to see much acceleration in wage growth or inflation in the economy.</p>
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<p><span>The RBA’s forecasts for continuing solid economic growth and a gradual rise in underlying inflation argue against a rate cut and support the case for an eventual hike. But our more constrained view on growth implying lower for longer wages growth and inflation along with the risks posed by likely further falls in Sydney and Melbourne home prices, tightening bank lending standards and the drought indicate a rate hike is unlikely to be justified any time soon. The next move in rates is probably still up but not until second half 2020 at the earliest and there is a risk that the next move will actually be down if falling home prices pose a significant threat to consumer spending and inflation starts falling again.</span></p>
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<p><strong>Implications for investors</strong></p>
<p><span><span>There are several implications for Australian investors.</span></span></p>
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<p><span>First, continuing growth should provide support for reasonable </span>returns from Australian growth assets.</p>
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<p><span>Second, bank deposits are likely to provide poor returns for </span>investors for a while yet.</p>
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<p><span>Third, while Australian shares are great for income, global </span>shares are likely to remain outperformers for capital growth.</p>
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<p>Finally, the outlook remains for a further fall in the $A. With the RBA comfortably on hold and the Fed raising rates every three months (with the next move coming this month), the interest rate gap between Australia and the US will go further into negative territory making it even more attractive to park money in the US and not Australia which will drag the $A down. Threats to global growth from a trade war and problems in emerging countries will also weigh on the $A.</p>
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<p><em>Dr Shane Oliver<br>Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital</em></p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Five things you need to know about the Australian economy: Shane Oliver

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The disturbing trend of persistently low inflation continues, as Wednesday’s data release shows.</p>
<p>Headline inflation was 2.1% for the last 12 months. But the more relevant “underlying” rate came in at 1.9%. This is even below the 2.0% the RBA forecast in May.</p>
<p>Given that the RBA’s target band for inflation is 2-3%, and that inflation has barely touched the bottom of that band over a protracted period, there are implications for monetary policy.</p>
<p>But, before we get to that, the obvious question to ask is: why is inflation so low?</p>
<p>One strand of thinking involves the “Philips Curve”. This basically says that low unemployment pushes up wages growth and hence inflation.</p>
<p>We could get into a long discussion of whether the current 5.4% unemployment rate is “low”. And whether the effective rate really is 5.4% given anecdotal evidence about “underemployment”, the impact of recent decisions on penalty rates and minimum wage rises, and the robot revolution as a backdrop to the whole labour market.</p>
<p>But we don’t need to go there. There is barely any evidence of the Philips Curve in the data over the past quarter century, so let’s just reject that theory and move on.</p>
<p><strong>Plausible factors keeping a lid on inflation</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>
<p><strong>Technology</strong>. The information technology and internet revolution has made lots of things much cheaper. Take music. Gone are the days of paying A$20-plus for a CD with maybe 16 songs on it. Streaming services like Apple Music and Spotify give access to literally millions of songs for a small monthly fee.</p>
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<p><strong>China</strong>. The rise of Chinese manufacturing has led to everything from kids’ toys to cell phones being produced vastly more cheaply than if those things were manufactured with higher-cost labour.</p>
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<p><strong>Globalisation and trade</strong>. The world has become radically more connected, and so have company supply chains. This not only allows access to lower-cost manufacturing but also leads to better specialisation through the principle of comparative advantage. This means that high-labour-cost countries like Australia can specialise in other components of goods and services, get better at producing those components, and reduce overall costs further.</p>
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<p><strong>Wages</strong>. Wage growth has been subdued for a long time now. Since labour costs are an important component of many goods and services, this has served to tame inflation. One potential reason for low wage growth is that automation sits as a background threat to human labour. If labour costs get too high then processes get automated, which serves to keep wages in check.</p>
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<p><strong>Leverage and consumer spending</strong>. A final factor is that given how heavily indebted Australian households are –largely through mortgage debt – they simply don’t have a lot of discretionary income. This limits consumer spending and makes price rises in the retail sector less likely.</p>
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<p>These factors don’t look likely to change any time soon – with the possible exception of trade due to the Trump trade war. But even if that escalates dramatically it will shrink economic activity, further depressing prices.</p>
<p>So we have long-run, persistently low inflation. Is that a problem?</p>
<p>The major concern is that it could turn into deflation, although that doesn’t look terribly likely right now.</p>
<p>If, however, there was another significant economic downturn then deflation is a very real prospect. That would raise the spectre of Japan’s experience of the 1990s where deflation caused people to hoard money, severely contracting economic activity.</p>
<p>But for now the real impact of low inflation is on the RBA.</p>
<p>Faced with inflation below its target band for an extended period, the standard response would be to cut interest rates. The RBA is clearly worried about doing this.</p>
<p>One reason is housing prices – the RBA is worried about further fuelling the bubble.</p>
<p>With housing prices easing, this may become less of a concern, although household debt levels remain extremely high. Not encouraging households to become further indebted seems like a reasonable concern.</p>
<p>A second reason the RBA may be nervous about cutting rates is that it doesn’t have very far to go with the cash rate at 1.50%. If there is another major economic downturn then the RBA wants to have some firepower left to respond.</p>
<p>If short-term rates were already near zero then the only tools available to the central bank would be non-standard measures such as quantitative easing. That would be uncharted territory for the RBA, which seems reticent to explore that territory.</p>
<p>So, as with economic growth and wage rises, the RBA response seems to involve crossing as many fingers and toes as possible and to publicly proclaim that things are looking good, but may take a while.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100514/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">We will get a better look into how that strategy is going when wage price index figures are released mid-August.</p>
<p><em><strong>Richard Holden</strong>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW</em></p>
<p><em>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-inflation-misses-again-so-where-does-the-rba-go-next-100514" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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