Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We’ve entered out 29th year of uninterpreted economic growth. Continued good fortune will require harder decisions.
Official figures released Wednesday show the Australian economy growing at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-weve-the-weakest-economy-since-the-global-financial-crisis-with-few-clear-ways-out-122942" target="_blank">slowest pace since the financial crisis</a>.
GDP growth was only 0.5% for the June quarter, meaning that in the past year output grew by a feeble 1.4%.
The figures weren’t a surprise, but they do contain a message about what can go wrong.
Australia has enjoyed 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, in part due to good management, in part due to good luck, and in part due to happy accidents of timing.
Good management
Credit has to be paid to the economic reforms of the Hawke-Keating era. Labor doesn’t talk about that legacy much these days, but it was a remarkable period of transformation.
From floating the Australian dollar and financial deregulation to the accord with trade unions, tariff reductions, and privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Hawke and Keating opened Australia to the world, and the world to Australia.
Without those reforms the Australian economy would look more like those of Italy, Spain, or Portugal.
And although John Howard was no pushover as a politician, he deserves credit for voting for economic reforms he believed in, even if Labor got the credit for implementing them.
It is worth remembering that there was a time, not so long ago, when politicians put country before party.
Good luck
We’ve also had some pretty good luck as a country. The most obvious piece of luck has been the economic awakening of China.
To have a billion people on our doorstep rapidly and radically transitioning from subsistence farming to sophisticated manufacturing and commerce, hungry for natural resources, sure helped.
Perhaps less obvious has been the rising importance of globally relevant cities around the world.
In his wonderful book, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-City-Greatest-Invention-Healthier/dp/0143120549" target="_blank">The Triumph of the City</a>, Harvard economics professor Ed Glaeser chronicles how, as he puts it, “cities magnify humanity’s strengths”.
Modern cities, thanks in part to information technology, spur innovation like never before. They bring talent together, serve as a cradle for entrepreneurship, and provide a vehicle for socioeconomic mobility.
Australia, as a highly urbanised country with two globally relevant cities in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as several other very important cities, has benefited from the triumph of the city more than most countries.
Great timing
But perhaps the greatest piece of good luck we’ve had was timing.
We now know that we live in a low-growth, low-inflation world, known as a secular-stagnation world. Former US Treasury Secretary <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYpVzBbQIX0" target="_blank">Larry Summers</a> says we might have been in one for many years but failed to notice.
In Summers’s telling, secular stagnation was masked in the United States by a massive housing bubble. In Australia it was masked by a housing bubble and a once-in-a century mining boom.
But more to the point, as housing and mining waxed and waned – as these things tend to do – one always seemed to be doing well just as the other was struggling, as the following chart shows:
Helpfully out of sync. Growth in mining output and property prices
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291063/original/file-20190905-175714-1kro0v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291063/original/file-20190905-175714-1kro0v6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Source: ABS
So, not only have we had a “China boom”, we’ve also had a “China hedge”: a source of economic growth not fully synced with, and at times offsetting, housing booms and busts.
What’s next?
In eulogising his brother Robert, <a href="https://americanrhetoric.com/speeches/ekennedytributetorfk" target="_blank">Edward Kennedy quoted from a speech</a> his brother gave in South Africa in 1966, in which he said:
"Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely beyond our control. It is the shaping impulse of America that neither fate nor nature nor the irresistible tides of history, but the work of our own hands, matched to reason and principle, that will determine our destiny."
There is pride in that, even arrogance, but there is also experience and truth. In any event, it is the only way we can live.
The same might be said of Australia.
We want to believe our national destiny will be shaped by good work, rather than good luck.
For that to be the case, we will need to have some hard discussions about the what government can and should do in the new low growth, low inflation secular-stagnation world.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sure-economic-growth-is-low-but-think-about-whats-gone-right-122973" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what’s gone right: Richard Holden

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Once, emulating Germany would be something to be proud of. Not at the moment.<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107"> </a>
It’s four years since then Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned Australia had been heading to “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-claims-australia-was-heading-for-a-greekstyle-future-20150318-1m1n9n" target="_blank">a Greek-style economic future</a>”.
He was referring to what he said had been happening under the previous Labor government.
When Labor left office in 2013 the federal government’s budget deficit had been 3% of gross domestic product. The Greek government’s had been 7%.
The Australian government’s debt to GDP ratio was 20%. The Greek government’s was 177%.
Australia was never on the path to becoming an economic basket case like Greece, but right now we are on the road to becoming like another European nation.
It also starts with “G”.
Becoming economically like Germany isn’t as scary. But it is genuinely troubling nevertheless.
Germany is not in good shape
Germany’s GDP growth in the June quarter was minus 0.1%. That means economic activity shrank.
Its central bank, the Bundesbank, doesn’t see things getting better <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/19/economy/germany-recession-bundesbank/index" target="_blank">any time soon</a>, saying growth “is probably set to remain lacklustre in the third quarter of 2019”.
Interest rates have fallen so low that investors are now <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany" target="_blank">paying the German government to take their money</a>. The nominal interest rate on two-year German government debt is -0.90%, and on extremely long-term 30-year bonds is -0.15%.
That’s right: even for 30 years into the future, investors think its safer to lose money by parking funds with the German government than to try to make money by using them in other investments.
Put another way, markets think the German economy will be in trouble for decades, meaning short-term German interest rates will have to remain ultra-low for decades.
The German penchant for balanced budgets became (there’s really no other way to put it) fanatical in the wake on the financial crisis of 2008.
Like centre-right governments around the world – Britain was a leading example – a dark fiscal austerity took hold, at precisely the wrong time.
2009 was a time of chronically weak private demand that required both lower interest rates and, as monetary policy was running out of steam, continuing budget deficits.
Instead Germany cut government spending, pushing the budget back into surplus from 2014.
It didn’t get everything wrong.
As I <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/greece-debt-crisis-afr-july-13.pdf" target="_blank">wrote at the time</a>, Germany was largely right to insist that Greece get its out-of-control spending and government debt under control.
But Germany’s approach to its own economy hurt it and other European economies such as Italy and Spain.
We’re turning German…
With apologies to British 1980s band The Vapors, we’re at risk of “<a href="https://youtu.be/XedDyR0opow" target="_blank">Turning Germanese</a>”.
Like Germany, our interest rates are getting close to zero. OK, Germany has negative nominal 30-year interest rates, but we’ve got negative real 10-year bond interest rates, and zero 30-year bond rates.
Both of our major political parties are gripped by balanced-budget fetishism, appearing to want to balance the budget regardless of the economic context.
Again, here we are not quite as fanatical as Germany, but Labor seems determined to “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-promises-23b-surplus-twice-the-coalition-s-20190509-p51lj5" target="_blank">out-surplus</a>” the Coalition to prove its economic management credentials. And the government has made delivering a surplus the centrepiece of its economic agenda.
And, like in Germany, our economic growth is slowing. We don’t yet have negative GDP growth like in Germany, but we do have negative per capita GDP growth.
…but there’s time to pull back
Poor old Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has been pleading over and again for more aggressive government spending, particularly on infrastructure, to help complement what he is doing on interest rates.
A couple of cheesy photo ops with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg aside, there’s no evidence of him gaining any traction in Canberra.
Structurally balanced budgets are important, and thinking government debt doesn’t matter is deeply misguided.
But this is the situation we face:
<ul>
<li>
private demand is chronically weak
</li>
<li>
our physical infrastructure has not kept pace with population growth and modern needs
</li>
<li>
our social infrastructure (including all levels of education) is not up to standard
</li>
<li>
interest rate cuts are running out of puff
</li>
<li>
the government can borrow in its own currency, long-term, for close to nothing
</li>
</ul>
Any government that won’t borrow and spend up big and smart in these circumstances is making a huge mistake – one for which we and our children will pay dearly.
If we’re not careful the old Abbott narrative of “we’re about to become Greece” will become true, except about another country whose shoes we would rather not be in.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-economically-australia-is-at-risk-of-becoming-germany-and-not-in-a-good-way-122217" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Economically, Australia is at risk of becoming Germany, and not in a good way: Richard Holden

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The easing of wider economic and housing market conditions has given rise to a situation where monetary and fiscal stimulus is possible, without fear of overheating house prices.
HIA released its quarterly economic and industry outlook report today. The State and National Outlook Reports include forecasts for new home building and renovations activity for Australia and each of the eight states and territories.
If economic activity improves, the credit squeeze dissipates, home prices stabilise and the recent stimulus measures take hold, the supply of new work into the pipeline will soon reach its low point. 
All indications are that this stabilisation will occur and prevent a more significant downturn. This will set a new market equilibrium where the supply of new homes meets, rather than exceeds, demographic growth requirements. 
This new equilibrium will see the number of new homes remain around 180,000 per year, not in excess of the 200,000 that have been built each year, for the past five years.
At first glance, demand for new detached homes appears to have held up well with only a 9.0 per cent contraction in starts over the year. This apparent resilience is due to the lag between the sale and commencement of construction of the houses and gives the impression that contemporary market conditions are stronger than is the case.
The apartment market on the other hand is continuing to contract rapidly and starts are now 41.8 per cent lower than a year ago. The number of apartments under construction will continue to fall as more projects reach completion and fewer new projects enter the pipeline. 
The silver lining to this contraction is that there is a convergence of conditions underway in the building industry. We no longer have a boom in east-cost capital cities and stagnating markets elsewhere. 
Interest rates, income taxes and lending restrictions have all been eased in an effort to support activity and economic growth. State and Australian Government investment in infrastructure is also important to support labour market growth.
These measures are now supporting activity in housing markets across the economy. 
Detached house starts are forecast to decline by 7.6 per cent in 2019/20, primarily in the first half of the financial year and stabilise at around these levels for the following two years. 
The drop in multi-unit starts has occurred faster than expected. A further decline of 12.0 per cent is forecast for 2019/20 before a slow improvement in 2021/22.
TIM REARDON is HIA's Chief Economist.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Market to stabilise 20 per cent below peak: HIA's Tim Reardon

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Our central forecast is for the Australian economy to expand by 2½ per cent this year and 2¾ per cent over 2020.
The growth forecast for this year has been revised down since we met six months ago, but the forecast for next year is unchanged.
The downward revision this year mainly reflects weak consumption growth.
It has become increasingly clear that the extended period of unusually slow growth in household incomes has been weighing on household spending, as has the adjustment in the housing market.
Given this experience, the outlook for consumption continues to be the main domestic source of forecast uncertainty.
Even so, looking ahead, there are signs the economy may have reached a gentle turning point.
Consistent with this, we are expecting the quarterly GDP growth outcomes to strengthen gradually after a run of disappointing numbers.
This outlook is supported by a number of developments including: lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, a depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation of the housing market and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure.
It is reasonable to expect that, together, these factors will see growth in the Australian economy return to around its trend rate next year.
The major uncertainty continues to be the trade and technology disputes between the United States and China. These disputes pose a significant risk to the global economy. Not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world.
Worryingly, this uncertainty is leading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered. It is also now generating volatility in financial markets and has increased the prospects of monetary easing in many countries. This means that we have a lot riding on these disputes being resolved.
Turning now to the Australian labour market, the unemployment rate, at 5.2 per cent, is a little higher than when we met six months ago. This is despite employment growth having been stronger than we had expected. What has happened is that increased demand for labour has been met with more labour supply, especially by women and older Australians.
Reflecting this, a higher share of the Australian adult population is participating in the labour market than ever before. This is good news. But one side-effect of this flexibility of labour supply is that it is harder to generate a tight labour market and so, in turn, it is harder to generate a material lift in aggregate wages growth.
Looking forward, while some slowing in employment growth is expected, the central scenario is for the unemployment rate to move lower to reach 5 per cent again in 2021. If things evolve in line with this central scenario, it is probable that we will still have spare capacity in the labour market for a while yet, especially taking into account underemployment.
This means that the upward pressure on wages growth over the next couple of years is likely to be only quite modest, and less than we were earlier expecting.
Caps on wages growth in public sectors right across the country are another factor contributing to the subdued wage outcomes. At the aggregate level, my view is that a further pick-up in wages growth is both affordable and desirable.
Turning now to inflation, the June quarter outcome was broadly in line with expectations, after a run of lower-than-expected numbers in earlier quarters. Over the year to June, inflation was 1.6 per cent, in both headline and underlying terms, extending the period over which inflation has been below the 2–3 per cent medium-term target range.
The Reserve Bank Board remains committed to having inflation return to this range, but it is taking longer than earlier expected.
There are a few factors that I would highlight as contributing to the low inflation outcome over the past year.
\These are: the slow growth in wages; the ongoing spare capacity in the economy; various government initiatives to address cost-of-living pressures on households; and the adjustment in the housing market, which has contributed to unusually low increases in rents and declines in the price of building a new home in some cities.
Working in the other direction, the drought and the depreciation of the exchange rate have been pushing some prices up.
Looking ahead, inflation is still expected to pick up, but the date at which it is expected to be back at 2 per cent has been pushed out again. Over 2020, inflation is forecast to be a little under 2 per cent and over 2021 it is expected to be a little above 2 per cent.
These comments were made during the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">opening statement</a> to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.
PHILIP LOWE is the current Governor of the RBA
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Australian economy may have reached a gentle turning point: Philip Lowe

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Deloitte Access Economics <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/great-barrier-reef" target="_blank">has valued</a> the Great Barrier Reef at A$56 billion, with an economic contribution of A$6.4 billion per year. Yet this figure grossly underestimates the value of the reef, as it mainly focuses on tourism and the reef’s role as an Australian icon.
When you include aspects of the reef that the report excludes, such as the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, you find that the reef is priceless.
Putting a price on the Great Barrier Reef buys into the notion that a cost-benefit analysis is the right way to make decisions on policies and projects that may affect the reef. For example, the environmental cost of the extension to the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-22/massive-abbot-point-coal-port-expansion-gets-federal-approval/7047380" target="_blank">Abbot Point coal terminal</a> can be compared to any economic benefits.
But as the reef is both priceless and irreplaceable, this is the wrong approach. Instead, the <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001395/139578e.pdf" target="_blank">precautionary principle</a> should be used to make decisions regarding the reef. Policies and projects that may damage the reef cannot go ahead.
How do you value the Great Barrier Reef?
The Deloitte report uses what’s known as a “contingent valuation” approach. This is a survey-based methodology, and is commonly used to measure the value of non-market environmental assets such as <a href="http://www.appstate.edu/%7Ewhiteheadjc/eco3620/projects/mocktrial/pdf/loomisandwhite-ee-1996.pdf" target="_blank">endangered species</a> and <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2663496.pdf" target="_blank">national parks</a> – as well as to calculate the impact of events such as <a href="http://econweb.ucsd.edu/%7Ercarson/papers/AlaskaReport.pdf" target="_blank">oil spills</a>.
In valuing the reef, surveys were used to elicit people’s willingness to pay for it, such as through a tax or levy. This was found to be A$67.60 per person per year. The report also uses the travel-cost method, which estimates willingness to pay for the Great Barrier Reef, based on the time and money that people spend to visit it. Again, this is commonly used in environmental economics to value national parks and the recreational value of local lakes.
Of course, all methods of valuing environmental assets have limitations. For example, it is difficult to make sure that respondents are stating realistic amounts in their willingness to pay. Respondents may act strategically if they think they really will be slugged with a Great Barrier Reef levy. They may conflate this environmental issue with all environmental issues.
But more importantly, the methodology in the report leaves out the most important non-market value that the reef provides, which are called <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/ecosystem-services-key-concepts-and-applications" target="_blank">ecosystem services</a>. For example, coral reefs provide storm protection and erosion protection, and they are the nurseries for 25% of all marine animals which themselves have commercial and existence value.
The Deloitte report even cites (but does not reference) a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000685" target="_blank">2014 study</a> that values the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs at US$352,249 per hectare per year. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park <a href="https://www.npsr.qld.gov.au/world-heritage-areas/great_barrier_reef" target="_blank">covers 35 million hectares</a> with 2,900 individual reefs of varying sizes. This means the ecosystem services it provides are worth trillions of dollars per year.
That is, it is essentially priceless.
The problem with putting a value on the Reef
Valuing the environment at all is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2014/jul/24/price-nature-neoliberal-capital-road-ruin" target="_blank">contentious</a> in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069684710084" target="_blank">economics</a>. Valuation is performed so that all impacts from, say, a new development, can be expressed in a common metric – in this case dollars. This allows a cost-benefit analysis to be performed.
But putting a price on the Great Barrier Reef hides the fact that it is irreplaceable, and as such its value is not <a href="http://le.uwpress.org/content/82/2/141.short" target="_blank">commensurate</a> with the values of other assets. For instance, using Deloitte’s figure, The Australian newspaper <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/great-barrier-reef-valued-at-more-than-12-opera-houses-study/news-story/33e7f7420e2b41bf9efd6a4aa6e3351b">compared the reef</a> to the value of 12 Sydney Opera Houses. But while they are both icons, the Opera House can be rebuilt. The Great Barrier Reef cannot. Any loss is irreversible.
When environmental assets are irreplaceable and their loss irreversible, a more appropriate decision-making framework is the <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001395/139578e.pdf" target="_blank">Precautionary Principle</a>.
The Precautionary Principle suggests that when there is uncertainty regarding the impacts of a new development on an environmental asset, decision makers should be cautious and minimise the maximum loss. For example, if it is even remotely possible that the extension to the Abbot Point coal terminal could lead to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-22/massive-abbot-point-coal-port-expansion-gets-federal-approval/7047380" target="_blank">massive destruction</a> of the reef, then precaution suggests that it shouldn’t go ahead.
Assigning a value to the reef might still be appropriate under the Precautionary Principle, to estimate the maximum loss. But it would require the pricing of all values and especially ecosystem services.
While the Precautionary Principle has been <a href="http://www.public.iastate.edu/%7Ejwcwolf/Papers/Gardiner%20on%20Precautionary%20Principle.pdf" target="_blank">much maligned</a> due to its perceived bias against development, it is a key element of the definition of Ecologically Sustainable Development in Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2012C00801" target="_blank">Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999</a>.
For a priceless asset like the Great Barrier Reef, it is perhaps better to leave it as “priceless” and to act accordingly. After all, if the Precautionary Principle is ever going to be used when assessing Ecologically Sustainable Development, in contrast with cost-benefit analysis and valuations, it is surely for our main environmental icon.
Ultimately, the protection and prioritisation of the Great Barrier Reef is a political issue that requires political will, and not one that can be solved by pricing and economics.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80061/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Neil Perry, Research Lecturer, Western Sydney University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-value-of-the-great-barrier-reef-its-priceless-80061" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What's the economic value of the Great Barrier Reef? It's priceless

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Australia’s record economic expansion has almost completed its 28th year. Interest rates have fallen to fresh record lows; wages are growing near 2.5%; underlying inflation is around 1.5%; the jobless rate is 5.2%.
Total returns on Australian shares (All Ordinaries Accumulation index) have lifted by 11.4% over 2018/19 (20-year average +9.5%) to a smidgen below record highs.
What does it all mean?
The 2018/19 financial year is almost complete and it is an opportune time to see how investments, financial markets and economies have performed over the past year.
Overall, the global economy has slowed over the past year, largely restrained by the US-China trade conflict. Central banks are now favouring rate cuts over rate hikes largely because inflation remains low.
The US economy generally remains in good shape. But Chinese authorities have been stimulating their economy in response to the slowdown caused by the trade dispute with the US.
The Australian economy is currently growing at a 1.8% annual pace – the slowest pace in 9.5 years. Just like other major economies, growth slowed over the year. Uncertainty over the Federal Election result also slowed activity ahead of the May 18 poll. Activity is expected to lift with election uncertainty resolved.
The Reserve Bank has re-assessed policy settings in response to stubbornly low inflation. The Reserve Bank now believes that unemployment can fall to 4.5% before igniting inflationary pressures.
As a result the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in June to 1.25% and has flagged another rate cut in coming months.
Inflation is expected to edge higher to around 2% in 2018/19 with unemployment 4.50-5.00%. But much will depend on the global trade environment.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%201.jpg" alt="">
Returns on shares have lifted by just over 11% in 2018/19 and growth of 7-11% is expected in 2018/19.
The Australian dollar should support the record economic expansion, largely holding in the late 60s/early 70-cent range against the greenback.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%202.jpg" alt=""> 
What does the data show?
<ul>
<li>Interest rates</li>
</ul>
The cash rate was reduced from 1.50% to 1.25% in June. It was the first rate change since August 2016.
The market-determined 90-day bank bill rate has held between 1.21% and 2.10% over 2018/19 and is ending the year near record lows.
Yields on the long bond – 10-year government bonds – have held in a range of between 1.29% and 2.79% and yields are ending the year near record lows.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%203%20.jpg" alt="">
<ul>
<li>Currencies</li>
</ul>
The Aussie dollar has fallen around 6% over 2018/19. The Aussie started the year around US74 cents and is ending the year near US69 cents.
We have calculated that the Aussie is ranked 103rd strongest against the US dollar of 120 currencies tracked.
The currencies of Thailand, Egypt, Uganda, Mexico, Philippines and Japan all have lifted around 3-7%.
The weakest currencies have been in the emerging economies of Venezuela, Argentina and Haiti. Only 24 currencies have lifted against the greenback over the year.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%204.jpg" alt="">
In the first six months of 2019, the Aussie dollar has fallen by around 2% against the US dollar, making it the 97th strongest of 120 currencies tracked.
The currencies of Russia, Egypt, Thailand, Central Africa and Canada have lifted around 3-10%.
The weakest currencies have been the emerging economies of Haiti, Argentina, Turkey, Pakistan and Ghana. Only 42 currencies lifted against the greenback over the year.
The Aussie has gradually trended lower for around two years. Over most of the period US policy interest rates were rising while the Aussie cash rate was left unchanged.
The Aussie fell from around US80 cents to US68 cents (if the January 2019 ‘flash crash’ to US67.43 cents is ignored).
<ul>
<li>Commodities</li>
</ul>
Commodity prices eased over the second half of 2018 in line with slower global growth but recovered some lost ground in 2019.
The Commodity Research Bureau futures index has fallen by 11% over the year, but the CommSec daily index is up 3%.
The difference between the two indexes is basically iron ore, with its price up 81% over 2018/19 while gold and coking coal gained 12%.
Base metal prices fell 10-20%; oil is down 23% while spot natural gas has slid 58% and thermal coal fell 37%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%205.jpg" alt="">
Sharemarket
The Australian sharemarket started 2018/19 with the All Ordinaries at 6,289.7 and the ASX200 at 6,194.6.
The All Ords currently stands at 6,734.3 points (up 7.1%) with the ASX200 is at 6,650.8 (up 7.4%). We estimate that Australia is 19th of 72 global bourses.
So far 35 bourses have recorded gains in 2018/19. The best performer has been hyperinflation-affected Zimbabwe but Argentina and Brazil have lifted more than 40%. The US Dow Jones has lifted by around 10%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/25/commsec%206.jpg" alt="">
The worst performers have been West Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Lebanon and Pakistan and Egypt. The Irish sharemarket has fallen 12%.
In the first six months of 2019, the All Ordinaries has risen by 18%, ranking Australia 8th of 73 nations. Greece, Argentina, Russia and China have been amongst the top performers (up around 20-37%) while Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Oman are amongst countries recording the biggest declines.
<ul>
<li>Investment returns</li>
</ul>
Total returns on Australian shares (All Ordinaries Accumulation index) have so far lifted by 11.4% over 2018/19, hitting record highs in recent days.
Returns on dwellings have declined by 3.6% to date in 2018/19 while returns on government bonds have lifted by 10.4%.
<ul>
<li>Sectors &amp; size groupings</li>
</ul>
Of the 22 identified industry sub-sectors, only eight have recorded declines in 2018/19.
Leading the gains have been Consumer durables &amp; apparel and Telecom (both up by near 41%) followed by Commercial services (up 21%) with Software &amp; services and Transportation (up 20%).
At the other end of the scale, Household &amp; personal products has fallen by over 36%, followed by Autos &amp; components (down 21%) and Energy and Capital goods (both down 8%).
Of the size categories, the ASX50 has outperformed (up over 9%) from the ASX100 (up 8%) and the Small Ordinaries and MidCap50 (up 1%).
What are the implications for investors?
Returns on shares are near record highs. In fact sharemarket returns have only fallen once in the past 10 years. So an investor that has employed a diversified strategy across asset classes would be well pleased with the performance over recent years.
The outlook for the sharemarket remains positive. The Federal Election is in the background for another three years. And the Reserve Bank has adopted a stimulatory monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank now believes that the economy can operate at a faster pace, thus generating greater job growth with the hope of driving the jobless rate to 4.5%.
The cash rate was cut by a quarter percent in June and a similar decline is expected in the next few months.
But the Reserve Bank doesn’t believe it can do it all alone – it is calling on greater fiscal stimulus.
Certainly Federal and State governments are being active in advancing new infrastructure projects. And with budgets broadly balanced or in modest surplus, there is scope for even more fiscal stimulus to be applied.
Over the coming year, infrastructure building and net exports will add to economic growth.
The Reserve Bank hopes that the stimulatory policy settings will lead to stronger household spending as well. Weaker home building will be the main factor weighing on growth.
Last year we noted: “Over the coming year CommSec expects the All Ordinaries index to be near 6,400-6,600 points in December 2018 and 6,600-6,800 points in June 2019”. The December forecast proved too ambitious but the June forecast looks to be safely achieved.
Over the coming year CommSec expects the All Ordinaries index to be near 6,800-7,000 points in December 2019 and 7,100-7,300 points in June 2020.
Housing markets across the nation are continuing to rebalance to reflect the increase in supply (new home construction).
Lower home prices and rate cuts will ensure that first home buyers remain active.
Investors are also expected to return although sharemarkets are expected to remain more attractive in the short run.
Over 2019/20, national home prices may post small gains between 0-4%. Since the Federal Election there have been signs of stabilisation of Sydney and Melbourne home prices.
The low inflation/low interest rate environment is entrenched, meaning that lower nominal investment returns are also here to stay. So investors will need to remain flexible and alert to the returns achieved across sharemarket sectors and across asset classes to ensure that their savings are keeping pace with the cost of living.
The ‘triple L’ theme (low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates) will also dominate global markets over the coming year.
In fact the US Federal Reserve is already contemplating rate cuts despite delivering the last rate hike just over six months ago.
The Aussie dollar is expected to largely trade in the late 60s/early 70s against the US dollar over most of the coming year. But interest rate differentials between the US and Australia and the US-China trade discussions are the two factors that could move the Aussie out of the tight range.
At the time of writing, financial markets were waiting on the next instalment of US-China trade talks.
Successful completion of the talks should lead to a major upgrade in prospects for the global economy.
If agreement remains elusive, expect stimulatory monetary policies to remain in place in China as well as advanced global economies.
Craig James is Chief Economist at CommSec. 
Ryan Felsman is Senior Economist at CommSec.
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Economic growth slows with more stimulus on the way: CommSec's year in review 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
For some time our view has been a less upbeat on the Australian economy than the consensus and notably the RBA.
The reasons were simple.
The housing cycle has turned down and this is weighing on consumer spending.
And this is at a time when the risks to the global economy have increased as the trade war threat has ramped up again.
All at a time when high levels of underemployment are keeping a lid on wages growth and, along with technology and competition, inflation.
Consequently we have been expecting rate cuts this year which have now commenced and have further to go.
We see a strong case for more fiscal stimulus to help the RBA in boosting growth and see an increasing risk that the RBA may have to use some form of quantitative easing to achieve its inflation target.
But the gloom around the Australian economy seems to have gone over the top lately with all the talk around rate cuts adding to the sense of malaise and more and more talk about a recession being inevitable.
Surely it can’t be that bad!
And why despite all this doom and gloom is the share market at an 11- year high, up 16% year to date and just 4% shy of its 2007 resources-boom high.
There must be some positives around.
And there are!
So, to inject some balance into the debate around Australia here is a list of positives.
They are partly why we don’t see Australia as being about to plunge into recession.
1. Australia’s current accounts deficit has collapsed
As a share of GDP, it’s the lowest since the 1970s as high iron ore prices have combined with solid growth in export volumes and pushed the trade balance into a record surplus. The current account deficit is the gap between what we spend as a nation and what we earn – so its near disappearance means we are less dependent on foreign capital. This is a big one given that a big scare of the 1980s in Australia was that the large current account deficit and rising foreign debt would lead to a major crisis, collapse the economy and require an IMF bailout. Like with most doomster stories on Australia, we are still waiting!
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
2. The Australian dollar helps stabilise the economy The $A is down 38% from its 2011 high and is likely to fall further and this provides a shock absorber for the Australian economy as a lower $A makes Australian businesses that compete internationally more competitive – eg higher education, tourism, mining, manufacturing, agriculture.
3. The drag from falling mining investment is over The big drag on growth (which was up to around 2 percentage points at one stage) as mining investment fell back to more normal levels as a share of GDP is likely over and mining investment plans look to be moving up again.
4. There is scope for extra fiscal stimulus The Federal budget is nearly back in surplus and while we have had a long run of deficits our public finances are in good shape compared to the US, Europe and Japan.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: IMF, AMP Capital
Some fiscal stimulus is already on the way with tax refunds for low and middle income earners. While the Government is focussed on achieving a surplus it seems to be recognising the case to do more to help the economy with talk of bringing forward infrastructure spending.
5. Infrastructure spending is booming Infrastructure spending is booming. While growth in public capex may peak this year, NSW has flagged another round of asset sales to fund new infrastructure spending and suggestions to bring back Joe Hockey’s asset recycling program (that saw the Federal Government provide a financial incentive to states to sell existing assets and use the proceeds to plough back into new infrastructure spending).
6. There is no sign of panic property selling Despite the falls in property prices we have seen no sign of a “crash”. Non-performing loans are still relatively low even in Perth where prices are down nearly 20%. There has been no significant panic selling. The switch for many from interest only loans to principle and interest has not seen mass defaults or mass selling. And the combination of the removal of the threat to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount along with rate cuts has seen buyer interest return.
7. The political environment remains sensible While the Federal election has been analysed to death, the bottom line is that Australians as a whole were not prepared to support a populist agenda of higher taxes on the “top end of town”, substantially increased public spending and redistribution. Just like they weren’t prepared to support a more right-wing free market agenda in 1993. Australia is not immune to the populism seemingly sweeping the world, but it seems to be limited to a relatively minor influence. Maybe it’s the moderate climate, maybe it’s the lack of extreme inequality, maybe it’s the compulsory voting system that keeps motivated extremists in their place in favour of a sensible centre.
Whatever it is – economic policy making in Australia could always be better (economists would love to see a greater focus on economic reform) but it’s generally pretty sensible.
8. Population growth remains strong Australia’s population growth at around 1.5% pa is strong and supported by a high fertility rate and high levels of immigration. While it’s far from a world beater – with the top 10 countries by population growth seeing growth of between 3 to 5% pa - it is at the high end of comparable countries and roughly double the OECD average and of the US and UK and is faster than India.
Of course, strong population growth is not without issues –around integration, congestion, the environment, adequate housing and infrastructure. And ultimately in terms of living standards it is economic growth per person (or per capita) that matters not total growth and lately per capita GDP has gone backwards. But solid population growth also has significant benefits in terms of supporting demand growth in the economy, preventing lingering oversupply (as today’s excess – say Sydney apartments – can quickly turn into tomorrow’s shortfall) and keeping the economy dynamic. It also means that while Australia’s population is ageing, the problem is far less challenging than in most advanced countries as by comparison Australia with a median age of 37 is relatively young and it has a relatively low old age dependency ratio.
9. The RBA can still do more While the official cash rate is at a record low of 1.25%, it can still go lower and we think it will, whereas in Europe and Japan rates are already at zero (or just below). Our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.5% beyond which it will probably conclude it’s of little benefit as it will make it harder for banks to pass on rate cuts as they will have more bank deposits at zero and so cutting mortgage rates would mean reduced profit margins and probably less lending.
But the RBA can still do quantitative easing – if needed. This basically involves seeking to boost the economy by injecting more cash into the economy using printed money. The lesson from the US, Europe and Japan was to go early and go hard. Japan and then Europe left it a bit too late, but the US went early and has achieved more success with QE.
QE as practiced there – using printed money to buy assets on the hope that banks would use the cash to lend, people would borrow and investors would help the economy by taking on more risky investments – may help. But it may not be the most efficient approach (as much of the cash just ended up in bank reserves) or the most equitable (to the extent it boosted prices for shares and other risky assets that are disproportionately held by high income/wealthier people).
A better option in terms of QE may be to use printed money to finance fiscal stimulus – maybe by directly buying bonds issued by the government. This is a radical step. The Austrian economists would scream hyperinflation! But they did with QE in the US a decade ago too and we are still waiting. In any case the problem is a lack of inflation and the risk of deflation. But it would work in terms of boosting spending in a fair way. It could involve either government spending on things like infrastructure (which both adds to demand and the economy’s productive potential) or tax cuts or “cheques in the mail” with use by dates.
But bear in mind Australia is a long way from needing to do this – we are not in recession so it’s really a debate about what can be done ahead of time which is actually healthy. Better this than wait for a crisis to hit then scramble on what to do.
Australian shares – what’s going on? Which brings us to the strong Australian share market. Much of the recent surge in the Australian share market reflects strong gains in mining stocks on the back of the strong iron ore price, strong demand for high yielding stocks as bond yields have plunged and the post-election bounce. And if global shares have a further setback on the back of trade fears then Australian shares will be impacted too. But it’s also worth noting that the Australian share price index has underperformed global share markets for almost a decade now reflecting tighter monetary policy from October 2009, the surge in the $A into 2011, the end of the commodity price boom, worries about a property crash and a mean reversion after Australia’s 2000 to 2009 outperformance. Many of these factors have run their course, have reversed or have been factored in by the share market so maybe the decade-long underperformance by Australian shares is coming close to an end.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/29/oliver%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital
Concluding comment The point about all this is that while Australian growth may be going through a rough patch and this could go on for a while yet, there is a bunch of things going well for the Australian economy and there is plenty of scope for more monetary and fiscal stimulus. So – barring a significant global downturn threatening our export earnings big time – recession is unlikely, and it would be wrong to get too gloomy on Australia.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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Nine reasons why an Australian recession is unlikely: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian economy grew by just 0.4% in the March quarter. It was a pick up from 0.2% in the December quarter, but over the year the four quarters taken together amounted to only 1.8%.
It’s the first time Australia’s annual economic growth rate has had a “1” in front of it since 2013, and the lowest annual growth rate since the global financial crisis.
<h2>Economic growth begins with ‘1’</h2>
1.8% is a big step down from the decade average of 2.6% displayed by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on a chart prepared by his office, and below most estimates of the potential growth rate of the economy.
<hr>
Real GDP growth
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278058/original/file-20190605-40731-1tfy7tz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278058/original/file-20190605-40731-1tfy7tz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
And most of the 1.8% was the result of population growth.
GDP per capita fell marginally in the March quarter after slipping by 0.1% and 0.2% in the previous two quarters.
<h2>Growth per person is weak</h2>
It means GDP per capita has fallen for three consecutive quarters – the first time that has happened in almost four decades, since the early 1980s recession.
Over the year to March, GDP per person grew just 0.1%, a result that suggests living standards barely grew.
But actual living standards grew by more. The Bureau of Statistics says the best guide is “real net national disposable income per capita,” a measure that takes better account of prices paid and income received.
It grew by a more impressive 1% and 0.5% in the December and March quarters on the back of sharply higher commodity prices, suggesting that, for the moment at least, living standards are not going backwards.
<h2>Household spending growth is weak</h2>
Household spending climbed only 1.7% over the year, barely more than population growth. The treasurer’s graph shows it was and well below recent average growth of 2.7%.
Household consumption growth accounted for just 0.1 points of the 0.4 points of economic growth over the quarter, which is well down on its usual substantial contribution as it is the largest component of output - around 60%.
<hr>
Growth in household consumption
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278059/original/file-20190605-40731-1txzoz5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278059/original/file-20190605-40731-1txzoz5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
Consumption of discretionary items such as restaurant meals and entertainment, fell while consumption of essentials such as electricity, health services and rent, continued to climb.
The treasurer’s chart showed that most of the items on which we cut spending were discretionary.
<hr>
Growth in consumption by category
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278102/original/file-20190605-40723-1gbqj8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278102/original/file-20190605-40723-1gbqj8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> March quarter. Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
<h2>Home building is falling</h2>
Low wages growth and falling housing prices are factors dampening consumption growth. The downturn in the housing market is also weighing on output growth through falling construction. In the March quarter it declined 2.5%, and was 3.1% lower over the year, a far cry from 10% plus annual growth rates achieved as recently as three years ago.
<hr>
Growth in dwelling investment
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278081/original/file-20190605-40731-jaxr75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278081/original/file-20190605-40731-jaxr75.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
<h2>Government spending has surged</h2>
By itself the government sector was responsible for half of the economic growth in the quarter, contributing 0.2 of the 0.4 percentage points.
Government spending surged more than 5% over year reflecting growth in spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme and infrastructure.
<hr>
Growth in new public final demand
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278083/original/file-20190605-40758-y551n1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278083/original/file-20190605-40758-y551n1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
<h2>Exports supported growth</h2>
Net exports contributed another 0.2 points to the 0.4 points of economic growth, with exports of rural goods, ores and minerals and services increasing.
Imports fell slightly, reflecting a weak economy.
Australia’s terms of trade – the ratio of export to import prices – jumped 3.1% as supply disruptions – including a dam burst in Brazil – boosted the spot price of iron ore.
<h2>Investment has flatlined</h2>
Although business investment was 1.3% lower over the year, it climbed 0.3% and 0.6% in the December and March quarters, suggesting that the worst of the slide might be over.
Treasurer Frydenberg said it was a tale of two sectors - investment in mining fell 1.8% over the quarter and was down 10.6% over the year as part of the transition from the investment in new facilities to production.
More encouragingly, non-mining investment grew by 2% in the quarter, reflecting commercial construction.
<hr>
Growth in new business investment
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278100/original/file-20190605-40715-dnkuex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278100/original/file-20190605-40715-dnkuex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
<h2>Inflation is weak</h2>
Inflation is determined by productivity-adjusted wages (unit labour costs) and import prices.
Unit labour cost growth moderated to be up just 0.3% in the quarter. Labour productivity (GDP per hour) declined 0.5% in the quarter to be down 1% over the year.
Import prices fell slightly, although given the recent depreciation in the Australian dollar means they are likely to increase in the near term. For the moment it adds up to little inflationary pressure.
<h2>Households are less optimistic</h2>
Consumers’ expectations, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Expectations Index, have softened slightly this year, but remain well above the lows reached during the global financial crisis and early 1990s recession.
The index is made up of answers to questions about expectations for family finances over the next 12 months, economic conditions over the next 12 months, and economic conditions over the next five years.
They are presented on a scale where 100 means expectations of improving conditions balance those of worsening conditions and greater than 100 means optimistic responses outweigh the pessimistic.
<hr>
Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Expectations Index
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278616/original/file-20190610-52753-1jdb9gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278616/original/file-20190610-52753-1jdb9gq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Trend, 100 means positive expectations balance negative expectations. Melbourne Institute
<hr>
<h2>Further ahead, the signs aren’t good</h2>
Subdued economic growth may well continue for some time. This is suggested by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index for April which points to below-trend growth for the next 3 to 9 months.
The index combines a selection of economic variables whose movements typically point to movements in gross domestic product, including the S&amp;P/ASX 200 stock index, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, the Reserve Bank Commodity Prices Index, aggregate monthly hours worked, the consumer sentiment expectations index the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index, and a financial market yield spread.
<hr>
Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278098/original/file-20190605-40731-1r4yvtt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278098/original/file-20190605-40731-1r4yvtt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Percentage deviation from trend growth, smoothed. Melbourne Institute
<hr>
This week’s Reserve Bank rate cut and those that follow will provide some support. The important question is how much will be needed.
More sluggish world growth due to increased trade tensions is likely to weigh on export growth in the near term. The depreciation in the Australian dollar, however, will provide a buffer.
A positive aspect for the consumption outlook is that there are tentative signs that the pace in decline in house prices is moderating, although what will happen is highly uncertain.
Overall, consumption growth is likely to continue to be soft, with at best only modest improvements in the near term. The downturn in residential construction clearly has further to run, with dwelling approvals in April down 24% on a year ago.
The government sector will have to continue to be an important source of growth in the near term. Whether non-mining investment growth will maintain its recent momentum is uncertain, as subdued consumption growth and the downturn in residential construction might dampen firms’ demand.
A problem faced by the Reserve Bank is that inflation has now undershot its target for so long that may be feeding into inflation expectations, making achieving the target more difficult.
Given the relative health of its budget, and Australia’s infrastructure needs, the government itself is in a position to step up and do more to boost the economy.
Look further ahead, the national accounts make clear that the government will have address Australia’s lacklustre productivity growth. It has been given a lot to work through.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118273/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" target="_blank">Tim Robinson</a>, Senior Research Fellow (Macroeconomics), Melbourne Institute, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/expect-weak-economic-growth-for-quite-some-time-what-wednesdays-national-accounts-tell-us-118273" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Expect weak economic growth for quite some time. What the national accounts tell us

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The facts are not in dispute.
Annual GDP growth has fallen to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">1.8%</a>. On a per-capita basis we have had three consecutive quarters of negative growth. The last time that happened was during the drought and recession of <a href="https://theconversation.com/expect-weak-economic-growth-for-quite-some-time-what-wednesdays-national-accounts-tell-us-118273" target="_blank">1982</a>, almost four decades years ago.
The most recent inflation reading was literally <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-zero-inflation-means-the-reserve-bank-should-cut-rates-as-soon-as-it-can-on-tuesday-week-115931" target="_blank">zero</a>. Real wage growth has been stagnant <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-policymakers-can-and-cant-do-about-low-wage-growth-101025" target="_blank">for six years</a>. Household debt is nearly <a href="https://bit.ly/2K0KbIZ" target="_blank">double</a> disposable income. And underemployment is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0" target="_blank">more than 8%</a>, on top of a 5.2% rate of unemployment.
What is in dispute is what to do about it.
We’ve entered secular stagnation
After being been told for years that the economy is in good shape and that we are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/video-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-on-his-1-billion-ideas-boom-2015-12" target="_blank">“transitioning away from the mining boom”</a>, it’s time to face the reality that, like most advanced economies, we are in a low-growth, low-interest rate, low-inflation trap.
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has argued for some time that advanced economies, almost universally, are suffering from what he calls “<a href="https://theconversation.com/secular-stagnation-its-time-to-admit-that-larry-summers-was-right-about-this-global-economic-growth-trap-112977" target="_blank">secular stagnation</a>” — a protracted period of low growth caused by too much savings chasing too few productive investment opportunities.
If the description applies to us, and it does, there are only two ways to escape it.
We’ve two options
One is unconventional monetary policy: measures that have the effect that pushing interest rates below zero would have.
The other is aggressive fiscal policy: either big (and if necessary, repeated) tax cuts or a big (and if necessary, repeated) boost in government spending, each of which would put the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-when-it-came-to-the-surplus-both-bill-and-scott-were-having-a-lend-116806" target="_blank">surplus</a> at risk.
What would an aggressive-enough monetary policy look like?
The starting point is a concept known as the “equilibrium real interest rate”. It’s the real (inflation-adjusted) rate of interest consistent with stable macroeconomic performance (which means full employment without financial bubbles).
1: Aggressive monetary policy
There is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/On-Falling-Neutral-Real-Rates-Fiscal-Policy-and-the-Risk-of-Secular-Stagnation.pdf" target="_blank">compelling evidence</a> that in advanced economies such as Australia the equilibrium real interest rate is negative.
But getting there in a low-inflation environment is hard. The Reserve Bank can, if it chooses, set the cash rate as low as 0% (<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-reserve-bank-will-cut-rates-again-and-again-until-we-lift-spending-and-push-up-prices-118263" target="_blank">this week it cut it to 1.25%</a>) but it can’t safely move it much lower than zero. If it did, if people and firms found themselves having to pay money in order to keep money in banks, they might simply take their money out, giving the Reserve Bank even less control.
This problem is known as the “zero lower bound”. It means that if the bank needs to cut rates beyond than zero it’ll probably have to do something else that has a similar effect.
The most likely candidate is “<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-is-the-time-to-plan-how-to-fight-the-next-recession-111497" target="_blank">quantitative easing</a>” (QE), whereby the central bank buys long-term government bonds and other securities from investors that have them, effectively forcing cash into their hands, which the zero interest rate means they have little choice but to spend.
It shows up in lower longer-term interest rates (rates for borrowing 5, 10 or even 30 years into the future) and should boost spending and borrowing just as much as cutting short-term rates.
There are at least three difficulties with QE in Australia.
The first is that because the Reserve Bank has never done it before, there are questions about how it would mechanically execute on it. The United States and European experience is helpful in providing a template.
The second difficulty is getting out. Nobody, including the US Federal Reserve, really knows what happens when QE is unwound.
Third, if secular stagnation persists, then QE needs to be a long-term strategy. But is it possible for a central bank to expand its balance sheet buying bonds and securities indefinitely, even if it was buying them at a modest pace? Again, nobody knows.
2: Aggressive fiscal policy
If nothing else, the headaches with monetary policy suggest that fiscal policy might be an attractive alternative. It might also be more effective.
As Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe noted <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-04" target="_blank">in a speech on Tuesday</a>, done in a good way government spending on infrastructure could both boost the economy and boost longer term productivity, giving a double benefit. It could be complemented by “structural policies that support firms expanding, investing, innovating and employing people”.
It’s hard to argue with Lowe’s logic. So hard in fact that some of us have been saying <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/big-project-spending-a-good-way-to-kickstart-stagnant-economy-20150819-gj2i7v" target="_blank">exactly what he just said for some time</a>.
A quicker way to boost the economy would be to splash cash, either as Kevin Rudd did in the form of cash payments during the global financial crisis, or in the form of <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-budget-cash-splash-that-reaches-back-in-time-114188" target="_blank">tax offsets</a> of the kind the Morrison government announced in the 2018 and 2019 budgets.
Delivered straight into bank accounts, both have <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-tip-23-9-is-a-meaningless-figure-ignore-the-tax-to-gdp-ratio-115432" target="_blank">much the same effect</a>, even though one is classified as spending and the other as cutting tax.
The obstacle to doing such things is this government’s – make that this country’s – obsession with balanced budgets.
The surplus can wait
I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-do-deficits-matter-any-more-112680" target="_blank">argued strongly</a> and still believe that debt and deficits do matter, but at the moment we are in serious danger of falling into recession. That makes it imperative to act.
Given the politics of budget deficits and the narratives around economic management, it might be that the burden of action falls on the organisation the least able to pull it off in the present circumstances. That’s the Reserve Bank.
If Australia does dip into recession in the next year or two it will be an unforced error.
Not only would the government be responsible for it by not having taken strong enough action on spending when it could, the bank would also be responsible by taking action too late and letting things get to the stage where it had to act while interest rates were near zero.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-we-fall-into-a-recession-and-we-might-well-have-ourselves-to-blame-118387" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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If we fall into a recession (and we might) we’ll have ourselves to blame

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The Australian economy grew 0.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the March quarter 2019, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. 
Ryan Felsman at CommSec said the economy has lost momentum.
"The annual growth rate is the weakest since September 2009.
"Like other advanced economies, output has slowed since mid-2018 as US-China trade tensions weigh on global growth. But domestic demand has also slowed, as evidenced by low inflation.    
"And soft consumer spending is the main culprit.
"Household incomes are being squeezed due to a combination of modest wages growth and increasing taxes paid due to ‘bracket creep’ (where taxpayers are pushed into higher income tax brackets).
"The negative ‘wealth effect’ from the property downturn is encouraging Aussies to deleverage amid elevated household debt, crimping consumption."
Felsman said the Reserve Bank cut interest rates to fresh record lows of 1.25 per cent yesterday and "appears likely to reduce interest rates to at least 1 per cent."
Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said the economy continues to grow as we head towards twenty eight years of sustained growth. Government spending was the main contributor to growth reflecting ongoing delivery of services in disability, health and aged care.  Household spending slowed and contributed a modest 0.1 per cent to growth reflecting reduced spending on discretionary goods such as furnishing and household equipment, recreation and culture and hotels, cafes and restaurants.  Dwelling investment continued to detract this quarter. The slowing housing market has resulted in significant falls in ownership transfer costs, particularly stamp duty.   “The Australian economy continues to grow but more slowly than our long term average of 3.5 per cent," Hockman said.
Economist Alex Joiner said the Australian economy remains in a per capita GDP recession with the third consecutive quarterly decline in real GDP per capita.
Commentator Callum Pickering noted Australia has to go all the way back to 2009 - the height of the global financial crisis - to see softer growth.
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