Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Economy

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As the Abbott government inches closer to <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/politics/41665-hockey-s-budget-roadmap-industry-assistance-age-pension-and-welfare-payments-on-treasurer-s-hit-list" target="_blank">delivering its first budget on 13 May</a>, the Prime Minister has today signalled some changes to his proposed paid parental leave scheme.
The scheme, first proposed by the Coalition when it was in opposition, is expected to take a $5.5 billion chunk out of the government’s coffers each year, with the aim of encouraging more Australian women to return to work after having children.
While Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey have continued to defend the <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/33217-small-business-divided-on-coalition-s--5-5-billion-parental-leave-policy---where-s-the-money-coming-from" target="_blank">controversial policy</a>, some members of the Coalition have been <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/government-senator-warns-parental-leave-scheme-too-costly/5288208" target="_blank">signalling their unease over the policy to the media</a> and the Greens have raised concerns about the cost of the policy in light of the government’s slated plans to cut welfare payments in next month’s budget.
So what will the new scheme look like? And who will be affected by the changes? We’ve pulled together a SmartCompany Q&amp;A to provide some answers.
What has the Prime Minister actually said?
<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/abbott-to-reduce-parent-leave-cut-off/story-fn3dxiwe-1226900421459" target="_blank">According to The Australian</a>, the Prime Minister will cut the threshold for the scheme from $150,000 to $100,000.
The change does not introduce a means-test for the scheme, but instead caps the amount of money that women can receive at a lower level.
The $100,000 threshold is in line with <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-100000-welfare-test-for-families/story-fn59niix-1226898879439" target="_blank">Abbott’s recent comments</a> about the income limit at which families should stop receiving welfare payments.
And how is this different to what was on the table before?
The scheme will continue to pay six months or 26 weeks parental leave based on the recipient’s full-time salary, but the maximum payouts from the scheme will now be capped at $50,000 instead of $75,000.
The government has not proposed any other changes to the scheme, with existing features such as the payment of superannuation still included.
How many new parents will be affected?
Diversity strategy and compliance consultant Prue Gilbert told SmartCompany that less than 2% of Australian women of childbearing age earn above $100,000 and so the change would only affect a small percentage of workers.
“It’s a pretty minimal change and is more symbolic than anything else,” said Gilbert.
And if the government is making the change to save money, does it mean other measures rumoured to be included in the budget such as the “debt levy” will be scrapped?
Probably not. Gilbert says the change will have a “negligible impact on the budget bottom line” and so the government will proceed with its plans to reduce the current budget deficit by dramatically reducing its spending and potentially introducing a temporary increase to personal income tax levels.
So if the change is minimal, what’s Abbott thinking?
Gilbert says the change is “aimed at getting more support” for the scheme, which is now attracting <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nervous-liberal-mps-beg-prime-minister-tony-abbott-to-rethink-paid-parental-leave-scheme-20140428-zr0vo#ixzz30J8LG5iV" target="_blank">criticism from within the Coalition’s own ranks</a>.
“The Greens have previously said that they will support the scheme at $100,000,” said Gilbert, who believes the change will mean that the scheme will almost certainly gain the Senate’s tick of approval.
Would the government be better off spending more on affordable and accessible childcare?
Media reports this week have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/childcare-shortage-anbsphurdle-for-paid-parental-leave/story-fn59niix-1226898789564" target="_blank">focused on the paid parental leave versus childcare debate</a>: that is, that women would be more likely to return to work if they have better access to more affordable and higher quality childcare.
However, Gilbert says that on average, Australian women take a mixture of 32 weeks in paid and unpaid leave from their jobs after having a child, and a paid parental leave scheme that allows mothers to spend the first year of their child’s life at home is in the best health interests of the mother.
It’s also much more expensive for childcare centres to care for children under the age of one, says Gilbert, who will be looking at the legislative detail of the government’s policy to see if it will be possible for women to take 12 months leave at half-pay under the scheme. “It would be a very positive thing,” she says.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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ekeating-PWvazjYE25

What will Abbott’s scaled-back paid parental leave scheme look like?

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Consumer Price Index figures for the March 2014 quarter earlier this week. 
The data showed that over the first quarter of the year inflation was recorded at 0.6%, down from 0.8% over the final quarter of last year.
Over the past year, inflation has been recorded at 2.9%.  The Reserve Bank (RBA) has an annual inflation target of between 2% to 3% over the medium term and although the reading is at the higher end of that band it is still within the range.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3147" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-12.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="184">
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3148" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="179">
Interestingly, non-tradable (or domestic inflation) was outside of the target range at 3.1% but has fallen from 4.2% a year ago. On the other hand, tradable (or imported inflation) was recorded at 2.6% up from -0.2% a year ago.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3149" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-31.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="184">
Turning the focus specifically to housing, the housing component of CPI has increased by 3.6% over the 12 months to March 2014, its lowest annual reading since June 2012. 
Across the housing sub-categories, new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers rose by 2.4% over the year with relatively tame growth also recorded for: maintenance and repair of the dwelling (2.5%), rents (2.9%) and other housing (4.7%).  Water and sewerage recorded the greatest annual rise at 10.8% followed by: property rates and charges (7.9%), gas and other household fuels (6.9%), utilities (6.8%) and electricity (5.2%).
The 2.9% annual increase in rents was the lowest reading since June 2006.  Similarly, the 5.2% annual increase in electricity was the lowest annual rise since June 2007.  On the other hand, the 10.8% annual increase in water and sewerage was the greatest rise since the 12 months to June 2011.
Another important consideration is the impact of inflation on home values.  Calculating ‘real’ home values by adjusting the RP Data-Rismark Home value Index for inflation provides valuable insight.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3150" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-41.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="178">
As the above chart highlights, once you adjust for the impact of inflation the level of capital growth over the longer term is much lower. 
In fact, when you adjust for inflation, combined capital city home values peaked in the September 2010 quarter and are still -1.8% lower than that level.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3151" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="182">
Over the 12 months to March 2014, combined capital city home values have increased by 10.6% however, when you adjust for inflation the rise has been a lower 7.5%. 
Across each city the rate of capital growth over the year is somewhat lower when you adjust for inflation and markets such as Hobart and Canberra which have recorded low levels of value growth have actually recorded value falls.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3152" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-6.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="500" height="184">
Home values across the combined capital cities are currently 7.2% higher than their previous peak according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. 
However, as mentioned above, when values are adjusted for inflation the story is quite different with values -1.8% lower. 
Across every capital city except for Sydney home values are lower than their previous peak in inflation adjusted terms.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3153" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-7.jpg" alt="Chart 7" width="500" height="179">
Looking at the compound annual rate of value growth over the past five, ten and 15 years in inflation adjusted terms you can see some interesting trends.  Sydney home values have increased at an annual rate of 3.6% over the past five years, but earlier soft market conditions have resulted in value growth of just 0.4% pa over the past decade.
Brisbane home values have fallen at a rate of -2.3% per annum over the past five years and over the same period Adelaide home values are -1.0% lower per annum, Perth values have fallen by -0.2% per annum and Hobart values have declined by -3.1% each year. 
Over the past decade, Darwin has been the standout performer with values rising by 5.9% per annum and the weakest market has been Hobart where values have fallen at a rate of -0.1% each year.
With mortgage rates at such low levels and the 10 years of no ‘real’ growth in Sydney home values it goes some way to explaining the rising demand and surging home values. 
Melbourne is also seeing strong capital growth but when compared to Sydney has been a much stronger capital growth performer over the past decade.  Despite a weak five years in terms of capital growth we are yet to really see the housing market heat up in Brisbane and Adelaide. 
In Perth the housing market was strong early in this growth phase however; capital growth is now fading despite the fact that values are still lower in real terms than they were five years ago.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Inflation remains contained within the RBA's target range

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The latest Image of Professions Survey by Roy Morgan has the usual results: most of us trust health professionals and teachers, while few of us rate anyone involved in selling, whether it be cars, real estate or advertising.
Those who bring us the news, or their version of it, and our elected representatives also have low ratings on ethics and honesty. No great surprises.
I’d love this survey, which from time to time adds new professions to the poll, to include a rating for economists. I’m sure they’d be right down there with real estate agents and advertising people who score single-digit trust ratings.
The problem with economists is that they thrust themselves in front of TV cameras and radio microphones to present themselves as expert analysts and forecasters. Their dismal track records don’t phase them.
The problem is exacerbated when they insinuate themselves into areas beyond their alleged expertise, real estate being a prime example.
An even bigger problem is that journalists let them do it.
Chattering economists and lazy journalists combine to create the greatest source of misinformation in the nation.
This week presented the latest example. Apparently unable to await the release of key data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, media springs to life in the days preceding the publication of the real figures to present the forecast of economists to a breathless public. This week’s example was the official data on inflation.
<blockquote>
Chattering economists and lazy journalists combine to create the greatest source of misinformation in the nation.
</blockquote>
A gaggle of 12 economists surveyed by media earlier in the week allowed journalists to pump out a warning that inflation was about to shoot beyond the 2% to 3% range beloved by the Reserve Bank. This was serious because it might influence a decision to raise interest rates. The annual inflation rate, we were told, would be 3.2% after a big rise in the March quarter.
I would have bet my house they would be wrong, because they are with unerring consistency. And of course they were. The annual inflation rate is still below 3% and we can all sleep easy at night.
But neither this nor all the other instances of faulty analysis and mis-forecasting will deter the average economist, described by one observer as “an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”.
Economists are most dangerous when they lecture us about matters outside their speciality. And don’t economists love to pontificate on the Australian property market. The first clue that they’re frauds is that there is no such creature as the Australian property market.
The single biggest message in the latest price data on big city Australia, Australian Property Monitors’ House Price Report covering the March Quarter, is the high degree of segmentation from one market to the next.
Economists discussing the APM figures focused on the 2% rise in the “national” median house price for the quarter and the 11.3% annual rise.
It sounded like evidence of the much-trumpeted national property boom but proper analysis shows it isn’t so.
While the weighted average across the eight capital cities is a quarterly rise of 2% in house prices, three cities had declines in their median prices, one recorded no change and two had increases around 1%. Only two cities, Sydney and Melbourne, recorded significant increases.
The weighted average rise in annual terms is 11.3%, but six of the eight capital cities had growth well below that figure. Half the cities grew 4% or less. The weighted average was inflated by Sydney’s 17% annual increase.
There are similar variances in the figures for apartments. In the March quarter, three cities recorded median price decreases and three others recorded increases below 0.3% - but when economists talk about “the 8.3% annual rise in apartment prices” it creates the false impression of a raging market.
In truth, Sydney is the only city with a strong apartment market, with an annual rise in the median price of 12.7%, according to the APM figures. Every other city recorded an annual result below 5.5%, including two where median prices fell and two others where annual growth was 1% or less.
Sydney’s having a property boom but the nation is not.
There’s certainly no boom in Canberra, where median prices have dropped for both houses and apartments. Nor in Hobart, where the median apartment price is down 8.4%. Nor in Darwin or Adelaide where median prices have risen only marginally. Perth and Brisbane have had solid growth, but well short of boom status.
But flick on morning television tomorrow and you’ll see economists babbling about the national property boom and the need for governments to take action to stop foreign investors, or eradicate negative gearing, or deal with the alleged housing shortage, or the other imagined evils that are causing this national crisis.
As someone once observed: “Economists are like cross-eyed javelin throwers: they don’t win any accuracy contests but they keep the crowd’s attention.” For all the wrong reasons.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Economists are most dangerous when they lecture us about matters outside their speciality

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Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards has claimed the biggest surge in export volumes on record may be holding up the dollar despite falling commodity prices.
Edwards says Australia was in the grip of a <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/export/36030-smes-confident-exporting-will-improve-but-hurdles-still-high" target="_blank">“bountiful” mining and energy export-driven revenue surge</a> according to <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/rba_member_exports_holding_up_OB9luyKSYe7sj1LwCqzf7H" target="_blank">The Australian Financial Review</a>.
He indicated this was helping underpin the Australian dollar because exports were supporting the economy and ultimately federal government taxes.
“I personally would have certainly preferred to see it weaken and it hasn't and that does suggest global markets have more rapidly adjusted to the Fed's plans to normalise than expected,” Edwards told the paper.
We asked the experts whether there was a surge in exports and what the impact was on the dollar and on SMEs.
Is there a surge in exports?
The <a href="https://www.efic.gov.au/country/ExportMonitor/Pages/ExportMonitor.aspx" target="_blank">latest figures</a> from the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation record a trade surplus for Australia of $1.4 billion in January, its highest level in nearly two-and-a-half years.
“Export values have surged, driven by increases in rural and resource export volumes,” Cassandra Winzenried, senior economist at EFIC said in a statement.
“This is despite steep declines in commodity prices to multi-year lows over the past month that have been driven by slowing growth and signs of financial stress in China”.
EFIC predicts the trade balance is likely to continue in surplus as the Australian resource boom moves from the investment to the export phase.
This is fuelling speculation that not just a trade, but a current account, surplus may emerge – for the first time since 1975.
Is the growth confined to the resources sector?
The growth in exports is mainly driven by the mining and resources sectors according to Peter Mace, general manager of the Export Council of Australia. 
“I don't think it is coming through outside the resource sector,” he told SmartCompany.
“There's good opportunities, meat had a good run last year but that was on the back of a lot of farmers reducing their stock.”
Mace says there is potential for export growth in the IT sector and the health and aged care sectors.
“There is a lot of potential with the free trade agreements with Japan and Korea being signed up,” he says.
“Growth will be huge if China signs up [to a free trade agreement]. New Zealand's exports rose by up to 50% after its agreement with China was signed.” 
What's the impact on currency and SMEs?
While exports have gone up over the last couple of years the Australian dollar has fallen from around $1.07 USD to around the 80c mark, according to export business consultant Cynthia Dearin. 
“Rising export volumes are not traditionally correlated to a higher dollar,” she says.
“Export volumes have gone up significantly and it has happened as the mining and resource sector has dropped off.”
Dearin says whenever the dollar falls the opportunities to export improve for small and medium size businesses.
“I don't think it is going badly for the SME sector but I think it could be going better,” Dearin says.
She says regardless of the currency situation SMEs find it a challenge to start exporting as many are not sure how to go through the process.
“If you look at countries like the UK, Germany and Singapore they all do significantly more to support their exporters than we do,” Dearin says.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany.</a>
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cwaters-YrtBR88nBe

RBA member claims “bountiful” export surge: Is it true?

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The consumer price index rose by 0.6% over the three months to March, which pushed Australia’s annual inflation to 2.9%.
But most economists had predicted it to edge above 3% for the first time since 2011.
The lower than expected figure decreases the prospect of imminent interest rates rises, which was previously tipped possibly in the fourth-quarter of 2014.
Economists were tipping headline inflation to grow by 0.8% and take the annual rate to 3.2%, pushing inflation above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% comfort zone target band.
Underlying inflation, which is closely followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, came in below expectations too.
The trimmed mean CPI rose by 0.5 percent, 2.6 percent annually, after economists had forecast a 0.7 percent jump to 2.9 percent.
ANZ economist Warren Hogan <a href="https://twitter.com/anz_warrenhogan" target="_blank">tweeted</a> "low CPI reading will be welcomed by the RBA after the high Q4 reading esp."
Hogan added the CPI data does not change our rates view.
"We expect cash rate on hold in ’14 before gradual rise in ’15," he forecast.
Economist Stephen Koukoulas <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKouk" target="_blank">tweeted</a>, however, that "Inflation no longer low. The question is whether a 2.5% cash rate is needed with inflation now locked in above 2.5%."
The Australian dollar fell half a US cent following today's softer than expected inflation data.
The ABS data showed the most significant price rises this quarter were for tobacco (+6.7%), automotive fuel (+4.1%), secondary education (+6.0%), tertiary education (+4.3%), medical and hospital services (+1.9%) and pharmaceutical products (+6.1%). 
These rises were partially offset by falls in furniture (-4.3%), maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (-3.3%), international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4%).
The tobacco price increase was caused by the federal excise tax rise from 1 December 2013 as well as the March 2014 biannual indexation based on the ABS' Average Weekly Ordinary Times Earnings (AWOTE) rate.
Education prices have risen with the commencement of the new school year, the ABS noted.
Rises for medical and hospital services and pharmaceutical products were a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme at the start of each calendar year.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Lower CPI rise may delay RBA cash rate hike prospect

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The Reserve Bank of Australia board has noted the most prudent course ahead was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.
Members observed housing market conditions remained strong, with housing prices rising in March to be 10.5% higher over the year on a nationwide basis. 
They also noted that dwelling investment had increased moderately in the December quarter, with a pick-up in renovation activity and that the high level of dwelling approvals in recent months foreshadowed a strong expansion in dwelling investment.
The April meeting minutes also noted financial markets and money market rates in Australia continued to imply that the cash rate was expected to remain unchanged over the remainder of the year.
Members began their discussion of the domestic economy acknowledging a range of indicators of labour demand suggested a modest improvement in prospects for employment, although the unemployment rate was still expected to edge higher for a time.
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RBA says period of stability in interest rates lies ahead: April minutes

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With generally positive labour market figures for March 2014, AMP Capital has renewed its prediction of a rate hike in September or October, virtually ruling out the possibility of another rate cut this year.
According to the latest ABS Labour Force figures, March saw seasonally adjusted employment rise by 18,100 people, ahead of market expectations of a 2,500 person gain.
Following a 48,200 gain in February, employment is now up 1.1% from a year ago.
Unemployment fell in March, now at 5.8% from an upwardly revised figure of 6.1% in February. However, the decrease can largely be explained by a fall in the participation rate, which AMP Capital’s chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver also believed factored into an “odd slump” in Western Australia’s unemployment figure which fell from 5.9% to 4.9% for the month.
Full time jobs were down 22,000 for the month across Australia, after an 80,000 job gain in February.
According to Oliver, the “messy details” of the ABS’s latest report and the tendency for monthly volatility in labour data highlights the importance of trend data, which shows monthly jobs growth of about 14,000, with unemployment rising slowly.
Given the available data, AMP considers Australia’s job market better off than media reports suggest, though not as strong as implied in February and January’s data. Forward looking employment indicators such as job vacancies, job ads and hiring intentions as detailed in the NAB Business Survey (see below) suggest gradual improvements in the jobs market. 
<img src="/images/2014/04/15/chart%20april%2015%20one.png" alt="">
While AMP expects that the rising value of the Australian dollar is likely to become a cause for concern for the Reserve Bank, the investment house predicts that the RBA will “renew jawboning efforts” to suppress the dollar’s international value in the coming months, rather than adjusting interest rates. The Australian dollar sits at US$0.94 at the time of writing.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Employment up for March with rate hike expected later this year: AMP

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I, like many property observers, am laughing at those commentators who are speculating that Australian houses could fall by up to 20% – an assumption that I find totally absurd.
It's far easier to question the state of the minds of those making such fanciful attention-seeking ‘listen to me because I’m important’ commentaries. Yes, house prices now equate to 4.3 times annual income and 28 times annual rent – however we are seeing less households selling today, with the mindset moving to long-term holds.
There is little point or relevance for that matter comparing Australian house growth to the other major economies around the world, for the simple reason that Australia has the smallest population – 22.68 million which is then reflective in the number of properties. The smaller the market, the tighter the hold and today there is no better example than Mosman, which has just 4,800 houses approximately.
In 2007 as the global financial crisis (GFC) loomed Mosman was put on notice by many of these so-called experts that prices would be decimated given its high dependence on the banking and financial industries which were spiraling downwards into oblivion. Well as it later showed Mosman had one of the (if not the) lowest delinquency rates in Australia and I am the first to admit that home prices move in wave – like motions.
In 2006 Mosman sold just 366 houses for a median price of $2,050,000; in 2007 there were 373 sales for a median price of $2,400,000.
In 2008 the median went to $2,450,000 with 247 sales (see my point – less sales with a higher median).
In 2009 sales increased to 278 yet that median fell to $2,200,000, then in 2010 we saw 317 sales recorded and the median jumped up to $2,325,000. In 2011 it went to $2,400,000 with 270 sales, then in 2012 the median fell to $2,100,000 with 284 sales and in 2013 it jumped back to $2,345,000 with 379 sales. Only a genius could make sense from that data.
Earlier this year we read speculation that with the Australian dollar falling our unemployment was on track to be higher than America’s, given it appeared our unemployment rate was 6.00% and climbing. This week we were pleasantly surprised to see the unemployment rate tracking at 5.8% which is a far cry from being north of 6.6%. Although of concern would be the International Monetary Fund warning of new challenges to developing economies. The Australian economy is still seen as below growth trend, although they do have our unemployment tracking at around 6.2% so the latest unemployment results are a fabulous achievement.
Two other interesting observations this week with the All Ordinaries hitting 5,503.5, which is the highest intraday level since September 2008. Then a day later the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed property investor participation rates were trending downwards for the first time in 18 months.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8497" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 9-42-47 AM" width="629" height="386"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
One can only hope that this time around property investors are not jumping back into the stock market by borrowing against their property portfolios. If so, this would be yet again another recipe for disaster – but then again history does repeat itself given it is well documented the two don’t really mix.
The Australian Property Monitors March Quarter 2014 Report was released last week and revealed the most amazing statistic (a week of amazing statistics) that Sydney maintains the mantle as the most expensive major capital for tenants with the median weekly asking house rent over the March quarter at $500 and units at $490 per week. With house rents flat lining over the last twelve months, units continue to rise simply because of affordability and an obvious lack of supply which again is a problem caused by governments stymieing the development process.
The latest Landsbury Deep Leeds an Occasional Research Paper which was released last week, revealed the number of proposed apartments in Inner Sydney has grown 20% since their last report in September 2013 to now reach over 30,000. The pipeline now includes 156 projects or major stages of projects, up from 130 in their last report, spread widely across 40 suburbs in 11 local government areas. The Sydney CBD has the most apartments proposed with 4,900 in the Inner Sydney region although the fact that construction is years behind demand is causing Sydney major concerns given our younger generations are now moving interstate.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8499" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 10-05-06 AM" width="578" height="310"></a>
Last week the ABS predicted Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by 2053. In the last financial year, NSW lost 4,000 people to Victoria, where a majority are well-educated, highly productive workers in their 30s, in search of cheaper housing or a shorter commute. The tell-tale signs of this migration have been floated for years and are a major concern for Sydney given it lay idle for years and Melbourne on the other hand, was building apartment developments at the fastest rate of any capital city in Australia.
Once they leave it’s a very hard task to entice them back as businesses will move with the population and Sydney can ill-afford to see major business relocating to fit their workforces.
Just another reason why some state governments are seen as totally hopeless with absolutely no vision – the reality is that population planning is completely beyond their comprehension.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why Sydney has a big problem with the future

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A new scheme, to be seen from 1 July this year, will provide the long-term unemployed with an added incentive to get a job. The government will pay for removalists' fees, bond and rent for those who relocate to get work.
A total $157 million of funding will be in part for this scheme, which is available to those aged 18 to 30 years, if they stay in a job for 24 months. They will receive $2,500 for staying in work for 12 months, and a $4,000 bonus for working for two years. A further $40 million is offered to those needed to relocate for a job.
This will see up to $6,000 to be available to those who move to a regional area, and $3,000 for those relocating to a city. Families could receive another $3,000. In total, unemployed parents with children could receive up to $9,000 in funding.
These payments will be to assist with rent, relocation costs such as removalists, and their bond. They will need to collect the receipts and have them for reimbursement.
Last Thursday, Minister for Employment, Eric Abetz, said that greater incentives needed to be provided, despite total employment rising.
These incentives included a Job Commitment Bonus, of up to $6,500, as mentioned above, that encourages long-term unemployed Australians to find a job, a Seniors Employment Incentive payment of up to $3,250, and the Tasmanian Jobs Programme which provides an incentive to businesses to employ job seekers who have been out of work for six months or more.
“Whilst employment figures can fluctuate from month to month, the growth in employment is welcome,” Abetz said of the latest numbers.
<blockquote>
The level of assistance is an increase on past schemes, however is now different between metro and regional areas, and offers extra to families.
</blockquote>
The Social Security Legislation Amendment (Increased Employment Participation) Bill 2014 also notes that in order to be eligible, the workers will need to have been receiving Newstart Allowance or Youth Allowance Other (not as an apprentice or full time student) for 12 months. They need to remain in work and off benefits for a minimum period of 12 months.
The bonus will be awarded even if the individual is in multiple jobs, rather than one continuous, provided they stay off of benefits. Self-employment qualifies, but other work is excluded, including work in the sex industry.
All the bonuses are tax free.
The 'Relocation Assistance to Take Up a Job' programme is the replacement for 'Move 2 Work', which expires on 30 June 2014.
The level of assistance looks to increase overall, however is now different between metro and regional areas, and offers the excess to families, which it did not before.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Unemployed? Government will cover rent, bond and removalist if you relocate for work

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Australia’s budget has deteriorated faster than any other developed nation’s in the past six months, as Treasurer Joe Hockey continues to prepare Australians for a tough May budget.
Just over a month away from the budget, the International Monetary Fund’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/External/pubs/FT/GFSR/2014/01/pdf/text.pdf" target="_blank">Global Financial Stability Report</a> released yesterday suggests a need for taxation changes in order <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/politics/41251-hockey-claims-labor-hid-spending-tsunami-as-small-business-prepares-for-painful-budget" target="_blank">to reel in the budget deficit.</a>
According to <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/imf_says_budget_fall_fastest_of_nreHL5ZcDI84gjokyEAp6H" target="_blank">The Australian Financial Review</a>the budget would need to improve by at least $50 billion by 2020 to bring gross debt down to 70% (or 4.7% of GDP).
Speaking in Washington yesterday, Hockey said IMF estimates showed Australia’s increased healthcare and pension spending alone, unless changed, would cost an extra $93 billion of government spending per annum by 2030.
“That is the equivalent of an extra $61 billion a year in today’s dollars or the equivalent of an extra 4% of today’s GDP,” he says.
To pay for the ageing population, Hockey says Australia will need to raise the equivalent of the existing company tax, indicating major changes will be needed to Australia’s taxation system.
Hockey says with the current budget deficit and below trend growth, there could be budget deficits for the next decade.
“We are now grappling with growth stubbornly below trend as our economy rapidly transitions from the end of the resources investment boom, with rising unemployment and a deteriorating budget position,” he says.
The latest figures from <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/pdf/text.pdf" target="_blank">the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook report</a> released earlier this month show Australia is still struggling to recover from the slowdown in mining-related investment.
The Australian economy is tipped to remain 0.5 percentage points below the trend growth rate of 3% to 3.25%. The IMF predicts Australia’s growth will remain “broadly stable” at 2.6% in 2014.
In 2015, GDP is only tipped to have increased 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%.
JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters told SmartCompany Australia has struggled to adjust to the post-mining boom.
“However, in context we’ve had the biggest boom we’ve seen in 120 years, so it’s not a surprise we’re having an adjustment period,” he says.
“As other economies come out of a recession, in this context we seem sluggish, but we’ve avoided having a recession for 23 years.”
Walters says JP Morgan is anticipating Australia to grow at 2.75% this year and 3% in 2015.
“Our estimates are a bit below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s estimates. We think the economy is still in an adjustment period… and when an economy goes through an adjustment, some sectors of the economy shrink by comparison. This is being seen in manufacturing and mining,” he says.
“The economy will start to pick up though, and growth numbers are expected to be higher each year. By 2016 things will be looking better. There will be boosts to exporting markets and consumer spending and construction will be strong.”
Walters says looking forward Australia’s biggest challenges will be recovering from a high exchange rate and managing the relationship with China.
“There has been a big hollowing out of the economy, with the exchange rate being too high for many businesses such as the car manufacturers and SPC Ardmona,” he says.
“[In the budget] welfare looks like an obvious target to hit. Also on the agenda will be negative gearing, the pension age and in the long term possibly GST.”
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.SmartCompany.com.au" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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