Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Economy

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As the Abbott government inches closer to <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/politics/41665-hockey-s-budget-roadmap-industry-assistance-age-pension-and-welfare-payments-on-treasurer-s-hit-list" target="_blank">delivering its first budget on 13 May</a>, the Prime Minister has today signalled some changes to his proposed paid parental leave scheme.
The scheme, first proposed by the Coalition when it was in opposition, is expected to take a $5.5 billion chunk out of the government’s coffers each year, with the aim of encouraging more Australian women to return to work after having children.
While Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey have continued to defend the <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/33217-small-business-divided-on-coalition-s--5-5-billion-parental-leave-policy---where-s-the-money-coming-from" target="_blank">controversial policy</a>, some members of the Coalition have been <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-27/government-senator-warns-parental-leave-scheme-too-costly/5288208" target="_blank">signalling their unease over the policy to the media</a> and the Greens have raised concerns about the cost of the policy in light of the government’s slated plans to cut welfare payments in next month’s budget.
So what will the new scheme look like? And who will be affected by the changes? We’ve pulled together a SmartCompany Q&amp;A to provide some answers.
What has the Prime Minister actually said?
<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/abbott-to-reduce-parent-leave-cut-off/story-fn3dxiwe-1226900421459" target="_blank">According to The Australian</a>, the Prime Minister will cut the threshold for the scheme from $150,000 to $100,000.
The change does not introduce a means-test for the scheme, but instead caps the amount of money that women can receive at a lower level.
The $100,000 threshold is in line with <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-100000-welfare-test-for-families/story-fn59niix-1226898879439" target="_blank">Abbott’s recent comments</a> about the income limit at which families should stop receiving welfare payments.
And how is this different to what was on the table before?
The scheme will continue to pay six months or 26 weeks parental leave based on the recipient’s full-time salary, but the maximum payouts from the scheme will now be capped at $50,000 instead of $75,000.
The government has not proposed any other changes to the scheme, with existing features such as the payment of superannuation still included.
How many new parents will be affected?
Diversity strategy and compliance consultant Prue Gilbert told SmartCompany that less than 2% of Australian women of childbearing age earn above $100,000 and so the change would only affect a small percentage of workers.
“It’s a pretty minimal change and is more symbolic than anything else,” said Gilbert.
And if the government is making the change to save money, does it mean other measures rumoured to be included in the budget such as the “debt levy” will be scrapped?
Probably not. Gilbert says the change will have a “negligible impact on the budget bottom line” and so the government will proceed with its plans to reduce the current budget deficit by dramatically reducing its spending and potentially introducing a temporary increase to personal income tax levels.
So if the change is minimal, what’s Abbott thinking?
Gilbert says the change is “aimed at getting more support” for the scheme, which is now attracting <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nervous-liberal-mps-beg-prime-minister-tony-abbott-to-rethink-paid-parental-leave-scheme-20140428-zr0vo#ixzz30J8LG5iV" target="_blank">criticism from within the Coalition’s own ranks</a>.
“The Greens have previously said that they will support the scheme at $100,000,” said Gilbert, who believes the change will mean that the scheme will almost certainly gain the Senate’s tick of approval.
Would the government be better off spending more on affordable and accessible childcare?
Media reports this week have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/childcare-shortage-anbsphurdle-for-paid-parental-leave/story-fn59niix-1226898789564" target="_blank">focused on the paid parental leave versus childcare debate</a>: that is, that women would be more likely to return to work if they have better access to more affordable and higher quality childcare.
However, Gilbert says that on average, Australian women take a mixture of 32 weeks in paid and unpaid leave from their jobs after having a child, and a paid parental leave scheme that allows mothers to spend the first year of their child’s life at home is in the best health interests of the mother.
It’s also much more expensive for childcare centres to care for children under the age of one, says Gilbert, who will be looking at the legislative detail of the government’s policy to see if it will be possible for women to take 12 months leave at half-pay under the scheme. “It would be a very positive thing,” she says.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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What will Abbott’s scaled-back paid parental leave scheme look like?

<html><body>
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Consumer Price Index figures for the March 2014 quarter earlier this week. 
The data showed that over the first quarter of the year inflation was recorded at 0.6%, down from 0.8% over the final quarter of last year.
Over the past year, inflation has been recorded at 2.9%.  The Reserve Bank (RBA) has an annual inflation target of between 2% to 3% over the medium term and although the reading is at the higher end of that band it is still within the range.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3147" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-12.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="184">
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3148" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="179">
Interestingly, non-tradable (or domestic inflation) was outside of the target range at 3.1% but has fallen from 4.2% a year ago. On the other hand, tradable (or imported inflation) was recorded at 2.6% up from -0.2% a year ago.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3149" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-31.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="184">
Turning the focus specifically to housing, the housing component of CPI has increased by 3.6% over the 12 months to March 2014, its lowest annual reading since June 2012. 
Across the housing sub-categories, new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers rose by 2.4% over the year with relatively tame growth also recorded for: maintenance and repair of the dwelling (2.5%), rents (2.9%) and other housing (4.7%).  Water and sewerage recorded the greatest annual rise at 10.8% followed by: property rates and charges (7.9%), gas and other household fuels (6.9%), utilities (6.8%) and electricity (5.2%).
The 2.9% annual increase in rents was the lowest reading since June 2006.  Similarly, the 5.2% annual increase in electricity was the lowest annual rise since June 2007.  On the other hand, the 10.8% annual increase in water and sewerage was the greatest rise since the 12 months to June 2011.
Another important consideration is the impact of inflation on home values.  Calculating ‘real’ home values by adjusting the RP Data-Rismark Home value Index for inflation provides valuable insight.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3150" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-41.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="178">
As the above chart highlights, once you adjust for the impact of inflation the level of capital growth over the longer term is much lower. 
In fact, when you adjust for inflation, combined capital city home values peaked in the September 2010 quarter and are still -1.8% lower than that level.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3151" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="182">
Over the 12 months to March 2014, combined capital city home values have increased by 10.6% however, when you adjust for inflation the rise has been a lower 7.5%. 
Across each city the rate of capital growth over the year is somewhat lower when you adjust for inflation and markets such as Hobart and Canberra which have recorded low levels of value growth have actually recorded value falls.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3152" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-6.jpg" alt="Chart 6" width="500" height="184">
Home values across the combined capital cities are currently 7.2% higher than their previous peak according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. 
However, as mentioned above, when values are adjusted for inflation the story is quite different with values -1.8% lower. 
Across every capital city except for Sydney home values are lower than their previous peak in inflation adjusted terms.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3153" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chart-7.jpg" alt="Chart 7" width="500" height="179">
Looking at the compound annual rate of value growth over the past five, ten and 15 years in inflation adjusted terms you can see some interesting trends.  Sydney home values have increased at an annual rate of 3.6% over the past five years, but earlier soft market conditions have resulted in value growth of just 0.4% pa over the past decade.
Brisbane home values have fallen at a rate of -2.3% per annum over the past five years and over the same period Adelaide home values are -1.0% lower per annum, Perth values have fallen by -0.2% per annum and Hobart values have declined by -3.1% each year. 
Over the past decade, Darwin has been the standout performer with values rising by 5.9% per annum and the weakest market has been Hobart where values have fallen at a rate of -0.1% each year.
With mortgage rates at such low levels and the 10 years of no ‘real’ growth in Sydney home values it goes some way to explaining the rising demand and surging home values. 
Melbourne is also seeing strong capital growth but when compared to Sydney has been a much stronger capital growth performer over the past decade.  Despite a weak five years in terms of capital growth we are yet to really see the housing market heat up in Brisbane and Adelaide. 
In Perth the housing market was strong early in this growth phase however; capital growth is now fading despite the fact that values are still lower in real terms than they were five years ago.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Inflation remains contained within the RBA's target range

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The latest Image of Professions Survey by Roy Morgan has the usual results: most of us trust health professionals and teachers, while few of us rate anyone involved in selling, whether it be cars, real estate or advertising.
Those who bring us the news, or their version of it, and our elected representatives also have low ratings on ethics and honesty. No great surprises.
I’d love this survey, which from time to time adds new professions to the poll, to include a rating for economists. I’m sure they’d be right down there with real estate agents and advertising people who score single-digit trust ratings.
The problem with economists is that they thrust themselves in front of TV cameras and radio microphones to present themselves as expert analysts and forecasters. Their dismal track records don’t phase them.
The problem is exacerbated when they insinuate themselves into areas beyond their alleged expertise, real estate being a prime example.
An even bigger problem is that journalists let them do it.
Chattering economists and lazy journalists combine to create the greatest source of misinformation in the nation.
This week presented the latest example. Apparently unable to await the release of key data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, media springs to life in the days preceding the publication of the real figures to present the forecast of economists to a breathless public. This week’s example was the official data on inflation.
<blockquote>
Chattering economists and lazy journalists combine to create the greatest source of misinformation in the nation.
</blockquote>
A gaggle of 12 economists surveyed by media earlier in the week allowed journalists to pump out a warning that inflation was about to shoot beyond the 2% to 3% range beloved by the Reserve Bank. This was serious because it might influence a decision to raise interest rates. The annual inflation rate, we were told, would be 3.2% after a big rise in the March quarter.
I would have bet my house they would be wrong, because they are with unerring consistency. And of course they were. The annual inflation rate is still below 3% and we can all sleep easy at night.
But neither this nor all the other instances of faulty analysis and mis-forecasting will deter the average economist, described by one observer as “an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”.
Economists are most dangerous when they lecture us about matters outside their speciality. And don’t economists love to pontificate on the Australian property market. The first clue that they’re frauds is that there is no such creature as the Australian property market.
The single biggest message in the latest price data on big city Australia, Australian Property Monitors’ House Price Report covering the March Quarter, is the high degree of segmentation from one market to the next.
Economists discussing the APM figures focused on the 2% rise in the “national” median house price for the quarter and the 11.3% annual rise.
It sounded like evidence of the much-trumpeted national property boom but proper analysis shows it isn’t so.
While the weighted average across the eight capital cities is a quarterly rise of 2% in house prices, three cities had declines in their median prices, one recorded no change and two had increases around 1%. Only two cities, Sydney and Melbourne, recorded significant increases.
The weighted average rise in annual terms is 11.3%, but six of the eight capital cities had growth well below that figure. Half the cities grew 4% or less. The weighted average was inflated by Sydney’s 17% annual increase.
There are similar variances in the figures for apartments. In the March quarter, three cities recorded median price decreases and three others recorded increases below 0.3% - but when economists talk about “the 8.3% annual rise in apartment prices” it creates the false impression of a raging market.
In truth, Sydney is the only city with a strong apartment market, with an annual rise in the median price of 12.7%, according to the APM figures. Every other city recorded an annual result below 5.5%, including two where median prices fell and two others where annual growth was 1% or less.
Sydney’s having a property boom but the nation is not.
There’s certainly no boom in Canberra, where median prices have dropped for both houses and apartments. Nor in Hobart, where the median apartment price is down 8.4%. Nor in Darwin or Adelaide where median prices have risen only marginally. Perth and Brisbane have had solid growth, but well short of boom status.
But flick on morning television tomorrow and you’ll see economists babbling about the national property boom and the need for governments to take action to stop foreign investors, or eradicate negative gearing, or deal with the alleged housing shortage, or the other imagined evils that are causing this national crisis.
As someone once observed: “Economists are like cross-eyed javelin throwers: they don’t win any accuracy contests but they keep the crowd’s attention.” For all the wrong reasons.
You can contact Terry via  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Economists are most dangerous when they lecture us about matters outside their speciality

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Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards has claimed the biggest surge in export volumes on record may be holding up the dollar despite falling commodity prices.
Edwards says Australia was in the grip of a <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/export/36030-smes-confident-exporting-will-improve-but-hurdles-still-high" target="_blank">“bountiful” mining and energy export-driven revenue surge</a> according to <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/rba_member_exports_holding_up_OB9luyKSYe7sj1LwCqzf7H" target="_blank">The Australian Financial Review</a>.
He indicated this was helping underpin the Australian dollar because exports were supporting the economy and ultimately federal government taxes.
“I personally would have certainly preferred to see it weaken and it hasn't and that does suggest global markets have more rapidly adjusted to the Fed's plans to normalise than expected,” Edwards told the paper.
We asked the experts whether there was a surge in exports and what the impact was on the dollar and on SMEs.
Is there a surge in exports?
The <a href="https://www.efic.gov.au/country/ExportMonitor/Pages/ExportMonitor.aspx" target="_blank">latest figures</a> from the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation record a trade surplus for Australia of $1.4 billion in January, its highest level in nearly two-and-a-half years.
“Export values have surged, driven by increases in rural and resource export volumes,” Cassandra Winzenried, senior economist at EFIC said in a statement.
“This is despite steep declines in commodity prices to multi-year lows over the past month that have been driven by slowing growth and signs of financial stress in China”.
EFIC predicts the trade balance is likely to continue in surplus as the Australian resource boom moves from the investment to the export phase.
This is fuelling speculation that not just a trade, but a current account, surplus may emerge – for the first time since 1975.
Is the growth confined to the resources sector?
The growth in exports is mainly driven by the mining and resources sectors according to Peter Mace, general manager of the Export Council of Australia. 
“I don't think it is coming through outside the resource sector,” he told SmartCompany.
“There's good opportunities, meat had a good run last year but that was on the back of a lot of farmers reducing their stock.”
Mace says there is potential for export growth in the IT sector and the health and aged care sectors.
“There is a lot of potential with the free trade agreements with Japan and Korea being signed up,” he says.
“Growth will be huge if China signs up [to a free trade agreement]. New Zealand's exports rose by up to 50% after its agreement with China was signed.” 
What's the impact on currency and SMEs?
While exports have gone up over the last couple of years the Australian dollar has fallen from around $1.07 USD to around the 80c mark, according to export business consultant Cynthia Dearin. 
“Rising export volumes are not traditionally correlated to a higher dollar,” she says.
“Export volumes have gone up significantly and it has happened as the mining and resource sector has dropped off.”
Dearin says whenever the dollar falls the opportunities to export improve for small and medium size businesses.
“I don't think it is going badly for the SME sector but I think it could be going better,” Dearin says.
She says regardless of the currency situation SMEs find it a challenge to start exporting as many are not sure how to go through the process.
“If you look at countries like the UK, Germany and Singapore they all do significantly more to support their exporters than we do,” Dearin says.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany.</a>
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cwaters-YrtBR88nBe

RBA member claims “bountiful” export surge: Is it true?

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The consumer price index rose by 0.6% over the three months to March, which pushed Australia’s annual inflation to 2.9%.
But most economists had predicted it to edge above 3% for the first time since 2011.
The lower than expected figure decreases the prospect of imminent interest rates rises, which was previously tipped possibly in the fourth-quarter of 2014.
Economists were tipping headline inflation to grow by 0.8% and take the annual rate to 3.2%, pushing inflation above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% comfort zone target band.
Underlying inflation, which is closely followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, came in below expectations too.
The trimmed mean CPI rose by 0.5 percent, 2.6 percent annually, after economists had forecast a 0.7 percent jump to 2.9 percent.
ANZ economist Warren Hogan <a href="https://twitter.com/anz_warrenhogan" target="_blank">tweeted</a> "low CPI reading will be welcomed by the RBA after the high Q4 reading esp."
Hogan added the CPI data does not change our rates view.
"We expect cash rate on hold in ’14 before gradual rise in ’15," he forecast.
Economist Stephen Koukoulas <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKouk" target="_blank">tweeted</a>, however, that "Inflation no longer low. The question is whether a 2.5% cash rate is needed with inflation now locked in above 2.5%."
The Australian dollar fell half a US cent following today's softer than expected inflation data.
The ABS data showed the most significant price rises this quarter were for tobacco (+6.7%), automotive fuel (+4.1%), secondary education (+6.0%), tertiary education (+4.3%), medical and hospital services (+1.9%) and pharmaceutical products (+6.1%). 
These rises were partially offset by falls in furniture (-4.3%), maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (-3.3%), international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4%).
The tobacco price increase was caused by the federal excise tax rise from 1 December 2013 as well as the March 2014 biannual indexation based on the ABS' Average Weekly Ordinary Times Earnings (AWOTE) rate.
Education prices have risen with the commencement of the new school year, the ABS noted.
Rises for medical and hospital services and pharmaceutical products were a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme at the start of each calendar year.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Lower CPI rise may delay RBA cash rate hike prospect

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The Reserve Bank of Australia board has noted the most prudent course ahead was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.
Members observed housing market conditions remained strong, with housing prices rising in March to be 10.5% higher over the year on a nationwide basis. 
They also noted that dwelling investment had increased moderately in the December quarter, with a pick-up in renovation activity and that the high level of dwelling approvals in recent months foreshadowed a strong expansion in dwelling investment.
The April meeting minutes also noted financial markets and money market rates in Australia continued to imply that the cash rate was expected to remain unchanged over the remainder of the year.
Members began their discussion of the domestic economy acknowledging a range of indicators of labour demand suggested a modest improvement in prospects for employment, although the unemployment rate was still expected to edge higher for a time.
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RBA says period of stability in interest rates lies ahead: April minutes

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With generally positive labour market figures for March 2014, AMP Capital has renewed its prediction of a rate hike in September or October, virtually ruling out the possibility of another rate cut this year.
According to the latest ABS Labour Force figures, March saw seasonally adjusted employment rise by 18,100 people, ahead of market expectations of a 2,500 person gain.
Following a 48,200 gain in February, employment is now up 1.1% from a year ago.
Unemployment fell in March, now at 5.8% from an upwardly revised figure of 6.1% in February. However, the decrease can largely be explained by a fall in the participation rate, which AMP Capital’s chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver also believed factored into an “odd slump” in Western Australia’s unemployment figure which fell from 5.9% to 4.9% for the month.
Full time jobs were down 22,000 for the month across Australia, after an 80,000 job gain in February.
According to Oliver, the “messy details” of the ABS’s latest report and the tendency for monthly volatility in labour data highlights the importance of trend data, which shows monthly jobs growth of about 14,000, with unemployment rising slowly.
Given the available data, AMP considers Australia’s job market better off than media reports suggest, though not as strong as implied in February and January’s data. Forward looking employment indicators such as job vacancies, job ads and hiring intentions as detailed in the NAB Business Survey (see below) suggest gradual improvements in the jobs market. 
<img src="/images/2014/04/15/chart%20april%2015%20one.png" alt="">
While AMP expects that the rising value of the Australian dollar is likely to become a cause for concern for the Reserve Bank, the investment house predicts that the RBA will “renew jawboning efforts” to suppress the dollar’s international value in the coming months, rather than adjusting interest rates. The Australian dollar sits at US$0.94 at the time of writing.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Employment up for March with rate hike expected later this year: AMP

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I, like many property observers, am laughing at those commentators who are speculating that Australian houses could fall by up to 20% – an assumption that I find totally absurd.
It's far easier to question the state of the minds of those making such fanciful attention-seeking ‘listen to me because I’m important’ commentaries. Yes, house prices now equate to 4.3 times annual income and 28 times annual rent – however we are seeing less households selling today, with the mindset moving to long-term holds.
There is little point or relevance for that matter comparing Australian house growth to the other major economies around the world, for the simple reason that Australia has the smallest population – 22.68 million which is then reflective in the number of properties. The smaller the market, the tighter the hold and today there is no better example than Mosman, which has just 4,800 houses approximately.
In 2007 as the global financial crisis (GFC) loomed Mosman was put on notice by many of these so-called experts that prices would be decimated given its high dependence on the banking and financial industries which were spiraling downwards into oblivion. Well as it later showed Mosman had one of the (if not the) lowest delinquency rates in Australia and I am the first to admit that home prices move in wave – like motions.
In 2006 Mosman sold just 366 houses for a median price of $2,050,000; in 2007 there were 373 sales for a median price of $2,400,000.
In 2008 the median went to $2,450,000 with 247 sales (see my point – less sales with a higher median).
In 2009 sales increased to 278 yet that median fell to $2,200,000, then in 2010 we saw 317 sales recorded and the median jumped up to $2,325,000. In 2011 it went to $2,400,000 with 270 sales, then in 2012 the median fell to $2,100,000 with 284 sales and in 2013 it jumped back to $2,345,000 with 379 sales. Only a genius could make sense from that data.
Earlier this year we read speculation that with the Australian dollar falling our unemployment was on track to be higher than America’s, given it appeared our unemployment rate was 6.00% and climbing. This week we were pleasantly surprised to see the unemployment rate tracking at 5.8% which is a far cry from being north of 6.6%. Although of concern would be the International Monetary Fund warning of new challenges to developing economies. The Australian economy is still seen as below growth trend, although they do have our unemployment tracking at around 6.2% so the latest unemployment results are a fabulous achievement.
Two other interesting observations this week with the All Ordinaries hitting 5,503.5, which is the highest intraday level since September 2008. Then a day later the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed property investor participation rates were trending downwards for the first time in 18 months.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8497" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-9-42-47-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 9-42-47 AM" width="629" height="386"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics
One can only hope that this time around property investors are not jumping back into the stock market by borrowing against their property portfolios. If so, this would be yet again another recipe for disaster – but then again history does repeat itself given it is well documented the two don’t really mix.
The Australian Property Monitors March Quarter 2014 Report was released last week and revealed the most amazing statistic (a week of amazing statistics) that Sydney maintains the mantle as the most expensive major capital for tenants with the median weekly asking house rent over the March quarter at $500 and units at $490 per week. With house rents flat lining over the last twelve months, units continue to rise simply because of affordability and an obvious lack of supply which again is a problem caused by governments stymieing the development process.
The latest Landsbury Deep Leeds an Occasional Research Paper which was released last week, revealed the number of proposed apartments in Inner Sydney has grown 20% since their last report in September 2013 to now reach over 30,000. The pipeline now includes 156 projects or major stages of projects, up from 130 in their last report, spread widely across 40 suburbs in 11 local government areas. The Sydney CBD has the most apartments proposed with 4,900 in the Inner Sydney region although the fact that construction is years behind demand is causing Sydney major concerns given our younger generations are now moving interstate.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8499" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/04/11-04-2014-10-05-06-AM.jpg" alt="11-04-2014 10-05-06 AM" width="578" height="310"></a>
Last week the ABS predicted Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by 2053. In the last financial year, NSW lost 4,000 people to Victoria, where a majority are well-educated, highly productive workers in their 30s, in search of cheaper housing or a shorter commute. The tell-tale signs of this migration have been floated for years and are a major concern for Sydney given it lay idle for years and Melbourne on the other hand, was building apartment developments at the fastest rate of any capital city in Australia.
Once they leave it’s a very hard task to entice them back as businesses will move with the population and Sydney can ill-afford to see major business relocating to fit their workforces.
Just another reason why some state governments are seen as totally hopeless with absolutely no vision – the reality is that population planning is completely beyond their comprehension.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why Sydney has a big problem with the future

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A new scheme, to be seen from 1 July this year, will provide the long-term unemployed with an added incentive to get a job. The government will pay for removalists' fees, bond and rent for those who relocate to get work.
A total $157 million of funding will be in part for this scheme, which is available to those aged 18 to 30 years, if they stay in a job for 24 months. They will receive $2,500 for staying in work for 12 months, and a $4,000 bonus for working for two years. A further $40 million is offered to those needed to relocate for a job.
This will see up to $6,000 to be available to those who move to a regional area, and $3,000 for those relocating to a city. Families could receive another $3,000. In total, unemployed parents with children could receive up to $9,000 in funding.
These payments will be to assist with rent, relocation costs such as removalists, and their bond. They will need to collect the receipts and have them for reimbursement.
Last Thursday, Minister for Employment, Eric Abetz, said that greater incentives needed to be provided, despite total employment rising.
These incentives included a Job Commitment Bonus, of up to $6,500, as mentioned above, that encourages long-term unemployed Australians to find a job, a Seniors Employment Incentive payment of up to $3,250, and the Tasmanian Jobs Programme which provides an incentive to businesses to employ job seekers who have been out of work for six months or more.
“Whilst employment figures can fluctuate from month to month, the growth in employment is welcome,” Abetz said of the latest numbers.
<blockquote>
The level of assistance is an increase on past schemes, however is now different between metro and regional areas, and offers extra to families.
</blockquote>
The Social Security Legislation Amendment (Increased Employment Participation) Bill 2014 also notes that in order to be eligible, the workers will need to have been receiving Newstart Allowance or Youth Allowance Other (not as an apprentice or full time student) for 12 months. They need to remain in work and off benefits for a minimum period of 12 months.
The bonus will be awarded even if the individual is in multiple jobs, rather than one continuous, provided they stay off of benefits. Self-employment qualifies, but other work is excluded, including work in the sex industry.
All the bonuses are tax free.
The 'Relocation Assistance to Take Up a Job' programme is the replacement for 'Move 2 Work', which expires on 30 June 2014.
The level of assistance looks to increase overall, however is now different between metro and regional areas, and offers the excess to families, which it did not before.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Unemployed? Government will cover rent, bond and removalist if you relocate for work

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Australia’s budget has deteriorated faster than any other developed nation’s in the past six months, as Treasurer Joe Hockey continues to prepare Australians for a tough May budget.
Just over a month away from the budget, the International Monetary Fund’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/External/pubs/FT/GFSR/2014/01/pdf/text.pdf" target="_blank">Global Financial Stability Report</a> released yesterday suggests a need for taxation changes in order <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/politics/41251-hockey-claims-labor-hid-spending-tsunami-as-small-business-prepares-for-painful-budget" target="_blank">to reel in the budget deficit.</a>
According to <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/imf_says_budget_fall_fastest_of_nreHL5ZcDI84gjokyEAp6H" target="_blank">The Australian Financial Review</a>the budget would need to improve by at least $50 billion by 2020 to bring gross debt down to 70% (or 4.7% of GDP).
Speaking in Washington yesterday, Hockey said IMF estimates showed Australia’s increased healthcare and pension spending alone, unless changed, would cost an extra $93 billion of government spending per annum by 2030.
“That is the equivalent of an extra $61 billion a year in today’s dollars or the equivalent of an extra 4% of today’s GDP,” he says.
To pay for the ageing population, Hockey says Australia will need to raise the equivalent of the existing company tax, indicating major changes will be needed to Australia’s taxation system.
Hockey says with the current budget deficit and below trend growth, there could be budget deficits for the next decade.
“We are now grappling with growth stubbornly below trend as our economy rapidly transitions from the end of the resources investment boom, with rising unemployment and a deteriorating budget position,” he says.
The latest figures from <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/pdf/text.pdf" target="_blank">the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook report</a> released earlier this month show Australia is still struggling to recover from the slowdown in mining-related investment.
The Australian economy is tipped to remain 0.5 percentage points below the trend growth rate of 3% to 3.25%. The IMF predicts Australia’s growth will remain “broadly stable” at 2.6% in 2014.
In 2015, GDP is only tipped to have increased 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%.
JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters told SmartCompany Australia has struggled to adjust to the post-mining boom.
“However, in context we’ve had the biggest boom we’ve seen in 120 years, so it’s not a surprise we’re having an adjustment period,” he says.
“As other economies come out of a recession, in this context we seem sluggish, but we’ve avoided having a recession for 23 years.”
Walters says JP Morgan is anticipating Australia to grow at 2.75% this year and 3% in 2015.
“Our estimates are a bit below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s estimates. We think the economy is still in an adjustment period… and when an economy goes through an adjustment, some sectors of the economy shrink by comparison. This is being seen in manufacturing and mining,” he says.
“The economy will start to pick up though, and growth numbers are expected to be higher each year. By 2016 things will be looking better. There will be boosts to exporting markets and consumer spending and construction will be strong.”
Walters says looking forward Australia’s biggest challenges will be recovering from a high exchange rate and managing the relationship with China.
“There has been a big hollowing out of the economy, with the exchange rate being too high for many businesses such as the car manufacturers and SPC Ardmona,” he says.
“[In the budget] welfare looks like an obvious target to hit. Also on the agenda will be negative gearing, the pension age and in the long term possibly GST.”
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.SmartCompany.com.au" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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