Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Dwelling Prices

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Australia's housing markets continue to see price slippage in early 2018. The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, dipped another 0.2% in March, the fifth consecutive monthly decline with prices nationally now down 1.4% from their Oct peak. Annual price growth slowed to 0.8%, a new low since the price correction in 2011-12. Note that data updates are now clear of holiday distortions with seasonal factors essentially neutral in the March month.
The dwelling-type breakdown continues to show more pronounced weakness for houses, prices down 0.2% in the month and barely up 0.2%yr. Unit prices were again flat nationally in March with annual price growth somewhat firmer at 2.6%yr.
Price weakness continues to be concentrated in Sydney, where the annual rate of decline dropped to –2.1%yr after dipping into negative last month. The detail shows the epicentre of the slowdown is houses (–3.8%yr) and particularly those in the upper end of the market, (–6.5%yr for the top 25% of properties by value). Note that these segments outperformed significantly through the upturn with prices still showing better gains over the last two years than the wider market. Sydney unit prices have been much firmer across the board annual price growth remaining positive.
Melbourne is starting to see a more material slowing although at 5.3%yr, annual price growth remains comfortably above that in the other major markets. Price growth remains particularly strong at the lower end of the Melbourne market (+12.9%yr for the bottom 25% of properties by value).
Price growth was coming from much weaker starting points across the other capital cities and showed more muted slowdowns in 2017. Annual price growth has dipped back to 1.3%yr in Brisbane and 1.7%yr in Adelaide. The pace of price declines has eased a touch to 2.4%yr in Perth although stabilisation remains elusive.
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Performances vary widely across the smaller capitals, Hobart posting a strong 13%yr gain but price gains more moderate in Canberra (+2.9%yr) and struggling to pull out of a sharp multi-year correction in Darwin (+1%mth but down –7.5%yr). Regional areas have been uneven as well, posting 4-5%yr price gains in NSW, Vic and Tas but about flat in Qld, dipping in SA and falling at a 5%yr pace in regional WA.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/4/DWELLING%202.jpg" alt="">
Overall, the March update is another soft read. While the pace of declines nationally may not be accelerating there are few convincing signs that they are moderating.   Indeed, if anything there are signs that price slippage may be extending to a broader range of markets.
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian dwelling price slippage continues

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GUEST OBSERVER
Buyers priced out of Sydney’s property market are set to drive up real estate values in towns such as Bathurst, Wagga Wagga and Tamworth this spring. 
The much-hyped growth in Sydney’s median dwelling price – which has risen almost 16% in the last 12 months to $856,000 – is driving demand for property in some of NSW’s major regional cities.
Towns such as Bathurst, Wagga and Tamworth offer real estate prices that are significantly below the Sydney median, while rental returns above 5% compare favourably to those generated by properties in the capital city. 
These robust population and services hubs appeal to owner-occupiers and investors who are prepared to look further afield, because of quality schools and hospitals, employment, diverse economies, and a comfortable way of life.
Bathurst
Bathurst, 200 kilometres west of Sydney, combines rural, manufacturing and education industries. It has a median price of $343,750 for houses, and $295,000 for units.
"We are expecting a very strong spring market as a consequence of low stock levels, falling days on market and more demand for entry-level property,” said Matt Clifton, Director, Raine &amp; Horne Bathurst.
“First-time buyers purchasing homes up to $650,000 won’t pay any stamp duty and there are discounts for properties worth between $650,000 and $800,000.  
“If we get the stock, it will be a fantastic selling period for those who decide to move house in Bathurst.”
Tamworth
Bryan Bolitho, Principal Raine &amp; Horne Tamworth, says his agency has just listed a 5-acre property at Catherine Way at Moore Creek, Tamworth, in the high $900,000s that will appeal to retired farmers who don’t want to live in town. 
“At the entry-level end, it’s still possible to pay under $250,000 for a three-bedroom house such as 8 Fisher Road, Tamworth,” said Mr Bolitho. 
“Tamworth is the largest inland New South Wales city west of the Great Diving Range, located 40 minutes from Sydney and an hour from Brisbane by plane,” said Mr Bolitho. 
“We have two hospitals, some of the best schools and have almost doubled our water supply. The town is going gangbusters.” 
Wagga Wagga
Wagga Wagga is a central hub providing services to over 185,000 people in the Riverina, in NSW’s southwest.
With strong economic and population growth, its unemployment rate is consistently below state and national averages.
“Economic diversity is the key to the success of regional towns, and Wagga Wagga has this commodity in spades,” said Grant Harris, Director, Raine &amp; Horne Wagga Wagga.
“Government departments such as Centrelink are major employers, and the Australian Army base at Kapooka, the RAAF base at Forest Hill and Charles Sturt University.”
An unusually busy winter real estate market has led to a shortage of housing stock, with listings down 20% compared to spring 2016. 
“We are desperately looking for quality stock and it’s a great time to sell a property in Wagga right now,” said Mr Harris. 
The median house price in the 2650 postcode, which includes 16 suburbs of Wagga Wagga, is $300,000, with a median weekly rent of $340. Annual growth of 5-10% is possible, according to Mr Harris.
“Yields above 6% are common and Wagga’s transient population generally produces low vacancy rates. However, vacancy rates fluctuate depending on the season. They generally fall as the weather warms.” 
There is a lot of sight unseen buying with plenty of owner-occupiers selling up in Sydney and buying acreage that comes with a nice house, noted Mr Harris.
Angus Raine is executive chairman, <a href="https://www.raineandhorne.com.au/" target="_blank">Raine &amp; Horne</a>.
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araine-ovWsRAh4A7

Raine & Horne predicts a strong spring for NSW regional markets

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80965/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A new report by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) reveals, for the first time, the extent of housing need in Australia.
An estimated 1.3 million households are in a state of housing need, whether unable to access market housing or in a position of rental stress. This figure is predicted to rise to 1.7 million by 2025.
To put it in perspective, 1.3 million is around 14% of Australian households. This national total includes 373,000 households in New South Wales, where the number is expected to increase by 80% to more than 670,000 by 2025 under the baseline economic assumptions of the modelling.
The first graph below shows the average annual level of housing need to 2025. The second, showing the percentages of households, permits a direct comparison by state. NSW and Queensland are in the worst position. The ACT is calculated to have the lowest proportional level of need.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" alt="">
What does this mean for households in need?
Housing need is defined as:
… the aggregate of households unable to access market-provided housing or requiring some form of housing assistance in the private rental market to avoid a position of rental stress.
This includes potential households that are unable to form because their income is too low to afford to rent in the private rental market. These households would traditionally rely on public housing and community housing to meet their needs. However, more and more are being forced into the private rental market, paying housing costs they are unable to afford without making significant sacrifices.
To 2025, on average 190,000 potential households in NSW will be unable to access market housing in a given year. The graph below is the most revealing as it illustrates the gap between affordable housing demand and supply.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" alt="">
The lack of social housing and subsidised rental housing prevents such households forming under affordable conditions. Many will manage to form but will have to spend well over 30% of their income on housing costs to do so, putting them in a position of financial stress.
The results also reveal the increasing pressure the affordable housing shortfall places on the housing assistance budget, notably Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
The absence of a significant new supply of affordable housing – there has been no large-scale program since the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) began in 2008 – has left state governments trying to find ways to plug the affordability gap.
Responses have been largely on the demand side, such as first home buyer concessions recently announced in NSW. But such incentives are no use for low-income households. To help them, intervention needs to be on the supply side.
How does Australia compare?
The AHURI research built on ideas emerging from research into housing need in the UK. It revealed interesting differences between the two countries.
UK government policy prior to 2010 emphasised the role of the planning system in helping to substantially increase affordable housing supply. This reflected evidence from England and Scotland that found a link between low levels of new housing supply and higher and rising house prices.
In this project, we found plenty of evidence of deteriorating housing affordability in Australia. But we did not find a particularly strong relationship between housing supply and  price growth. This might reflect how other drivers of deteriorating housing affordability are more important in Australia – such as tax incentives for investors.
These findings suggest we need to look more closely at how new supply and investment demand interact, and in what circumstances boosting new supply is likely to improve affordability.
From our analysis of individuals’ labour market circumstances and incomes, it was also clear that the Australian workforce has not escaped the erosion of secure, full-time employment opportunities seen in other countries.
The combination of widespread insecure, part-time employment opportunities, high housing costs and low supply of rented social housing means the housing of many working Australians is extremely precarious.
How was the research done?
The research modelled housing need at the state and territory level to 2025 using an underlying set of economic assumptions and interrelated models on household formation, housing markets, labour markets and tenure choice.
The models were underpinned by data from the Housing, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and house price and rent data.
This research delivers, for the first time in Australia, a consistent and replicable methodology for assessing housing need. It can be used to inform resource allocation and simulate the impact of policy decisions on housing outcomes.
The intention is to further develop the model to assess housing need at the level of local government areas.
So, what are the policy implications?
The scale of the affordable housing shortfall requires major action from federal and state governments.
NRAS had its problems but at least delivered a supply of below-market housing. Australia cannot rely on the private sector to deliver housing for low-income households without some form of government subsidy as it is simply not profitable to do so.
The question is what government is going to be prepared, or even able, to spend big to close the affordable housing supply gap?
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914">Steven Rowley </a>is Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783">Chris Leishman</a> is Professor of Housing Economics, University of Adelaide.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Affordable housing shortfall leaves 1.3m households in need and rising – study

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GUEST OBSERVER
Housing approvals recorded a strong June, but in trend terms are flattening out at levels well below last year’s peak. 
We expect further declines will come through in the remainder of the year, although it is likely the most sizeable falls have already occurred. 
Meanwhile, despite a small fall in June non-residential approvals remain elevated, led by strength in Victoria’s office segment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%208.36.24%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%208.36.24%20AM.png" alt="">
Housing approvals rose sharply in June, with 10.9% m/m growth more than offsetting the previous month’s decline. The monthly rise was driven primarily by the unit/apartment segment in New South Wales, which rose 43% m/m. Victoria also recorded a solid rise in June, up 6% overall, adding to May’s increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%208.37.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%208.37.36%20AM.png" alt="">
The upshot of this strong result is that total building approvals (in trend terms) have started to stabilise some 15% below the peak of last year. We still expect further declines will come through over the second half of 2017, driven by tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates for investors, although the size of these falls will likely be tempered by the fact that the RBA is not yet embarking on a tightening cycle. At any rate, it appears that the sharpest falls in approvals are behind us.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%208.38.40%20AM.png" alt="">
While NSW housing approvals are proving resilient, Victoria is the shining light for the non- residential sector. In trend terms, non-residential approvals in Victoria are 60% higher than at the end of 2016. The office segment has been the key driver of this strength, with monthly approvals now sitting at record levels. This is likely to provide some offset to the eventual decline in housing construction as the current backlog of work is eroded. 
Daniel Gradwell is the senior economist for <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/">ANZ</a>.
 
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Australian housing approvals still falling: Daniel Gradwell

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Quarterly Housing &amp; Economic Review is a breakdown of the activity across each of the capital cities over the quarter to June 2017 and also dives into the economic factors that contribute to the overall performance of the market.
June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015.
The June quarter has historically shown seasonal weakness, however, despite a slower rate of growth over the quarter, the combined capital cities still recorded value growth of 9.6% over the past 12 months. With values continuing to rise, the total value of residential property nationally was estimated at $7.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.
Sydney and Melbourne were the only capital cities to have recorded double-digit value growth over the past year with values increasing by 12.2% and 13.7% respectively. Although values have risen swiftly in these two cities over the year, the annual trend rate of growth has slowed since the March 2017 quarter.
Across the remaining capital cities, values have increased over the past year in Brisbane (2.0%), Adelaide (2.4%), Hobart (6.8%) and Canberra (9.6%) while values are lower in Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-7.0%).
In 2008 during the financial crisis, combined capital city dwelling values fell by around 6%. The combination of state and federal government stimulus and aggressive cuts to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank saw values rise from the end of 2008 and since then, over two growth cycles, combined capital city dwelling values have increased by 69.8%.
The rates of growth since 2008 have been substantially greater in Sydney (110.9%) and Melbourne (95.3%) than across all other capital cities. Canberra (39.1%) is the only other capital city to have seen values rise by more than 20% since the end of 2008. Growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been due to a range of factors, including but not limited to: rapid population growth, much stronger economic conditions driving employment growth and a relatively low supply of established stock available for sale.
The ongoing rises in home values are being supported by a low cost of borrowing.
As values have increased over recent years, so too has supply with new housing construction, particularly construction of units, recently passing through a new historically high level. New construction activity has been driven by the low cost of borrowing and the elevated level of activity from the investor segment of the market, including demand emanating from overseas.
It is reasonable to conclude that many of the new units constructed in particular, have been purchased by investors. It has also been widely reported that the level of purchasing by offshore buyers has increased dramatically over recent years which has also supported the heightened level of new housing construction. The surge in unit construction is already leading to units increasing in value at a slower pace than houses across a number of capital cities.
Although new housing construction has started to slow, a substantial volume of units remain under construction and will continue to ensure completions remain elevated over the next few years.
A year ago the rental market was showing clear signs of slowing with the surge of new housing stock causing rental growth to slow. Over the past nine to 12 months, rental growth has started to pick-up noticeably. It is difficult to know exactly what has driven this however, rapid population growth and the sheer lack of affordability of owning a home are most likely drivers.
Furthermore, the rising popularity of AirBNB is potentially resulting in some level of stock removal from the long-term rental market and increasing supply in the short-term market. Additionally, as mortgage rates edge higher, particularly for investment mortgages, it is likely that landlords will be doing their best to recoup their higher cost of debt by pushing rents higher.
Capital city dwelling values have now been rising for five years and the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been significantly greater than that outside of these two cities. While lower mortgage rates have improved mortgage serviceability, for those that don’t own a home it is increasingly difficult for them to firstly save a large enough deposit and secondly to compete with the equity that current home owners have built over recent years.
The housing market conditions prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne are not prevalent across the rest of the country however, these cities are being supported by strong economic and demographic conditions which are fuelling mortgage demand.
Mortgage rates have clearly played a role in driving housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne but the relatively weaker economic conditions outside of these two cities have dampened housing demand elsewhere. With affordability becoming stretched we are seeing increasing pushes for housing market reform from Government. These calls are expected to only grow louder the longer the current growth conditions persist.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney, Melbourne record double-digit value growth

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Capital city residential property prices rose by 2.2 percent in the March 2017 quarter, to be 10.2 percent higher over the year.
Apartment price growth has been strong in Sydney in recent years, but overall established house prices have comfortably outperformed through this cycle to date, partly reflecting an apartment overbuild in some regions. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">
The total value of Australia's dwelling stock has now increased by 50 per cent since December 2011, rising by $2.2 trillion to a total of a shade over $6.6 trillion. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">  
Sydney leads, for now
Over the year to March the strongest price growth was recorded by Sydney (14.4 per cent) and Melbourne (13.4 per cent), though it seems highly likely that Sydney's annual growth rate is now firmly on a downwards trajectory from here. 
At the other end of the scale more annual price declines were suffered by Perth (-3.5 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent). 
The tight Hobart market recorded the strongest quarterly gain (3.4 per cent) to be up by a boisterous 11.3 per cent over the past year. 
Indexing the numbers back to 2003 shows how long run dwelling price performance between the capital cities is converging, with the resources capitals coming back down to earth following the peak of the mining boom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" alt="">
At the state level New South Wales has seen a huge surge in its mean dwelling price which has increased from $535,300 at the end of 2011 to $886,800, for an absolute increase of $351,500 or 66 per cent.  
Reflecting the end of the resources construction boom, over the same timeframe mean prices were up by only 3 per cent in Western Australia and declined by 2 per cent in the Northern Territory. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" alt="">
Nationally the mean dwelling price has increased by $182,800 or 38 per cent since the end of 2011. 
Of the $2.2 trillion increase in the total value of the dwelling stock since 2011, the three most populous states of New South Wales ($1.2 trillion), Victoria ($0.6 trillion), and Queensland ($206 billion) together accounted for 91.5 per cent of the increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" alt="">
Supply response picks up
Finally, a quick look at the net increase in the dwelling stock, which has picked up the pace in swelling by 194,000 dwellings over the year to March 2017. 
The March stock figures are preliminary and subject to revision - the increase looks decidedly low in New South Wales, for example - but the annual rate of increase has clearly picked up the pace since 2012.
It's interesting to note that while Victoria has increased the size of its dwelling stock by 10.3 per cent over the past half decade - much faster than the 6.7 per cent increase in New South Wales - the strong annual increase of 2.2 per cent is still only just ahead of the state's rampant rate of population growth.
The wrap 
There were more strong gains in dwelling prices in Sydney (3 per cent) and Melbourne (3.1 per cent) across the first quarter of the calendar year.
Meanwhile Adelaide prices rose by 1.5 per cent to be 5 per cent higher over the year, and Canberra snuck in under the radar to record annual growth of 8.9 per cent. 
The above having been said, the double digit annual growth rate is likely to represent the peak for this cycle, with a raft of macroprudential measures appearing well set to douse investor activity. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Capital city prices rise 10 percent

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There’s a pattern with dwelling prices in Australian cities and in simple terms it’s this: the bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate.
Sydney is more expensive than Melbourne, which is pricier than Brisbane, which outranks Perth, which is dearer than Adelaide, which has higher prices than Hobart. The benchmark I’m using is the median house price.
But there’s one city that doesn’t adhere to the pattern and it’s Canberra. Canberra is a small and relatively insignificant place in terms of its population and economy – but it has some of the nation’s most expensive real estate.
Canberra’s median dwelling price (around $600,000, according to CoreLogic) is much higher than the medians for Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and not a lot behind Melbourne’s $660,000.
There are multiple reasons why this is the case. As a government town, Canberra tends to have low unemployment and high average incomes – and that has an influence on real estate values.
But the biggest single reason – and one that speaks to the core of the housing affordability debate nationwide – is the control exercised by the ACT Government.
I strongly believe that the nub of affordability issues – and the source of the most workable solutions to the issues where they exist – is the high cost of producing new dwellings in Australia. The costs are unnecessarily high because all three levels of government mercilessly milk the housing industry cash cow, thereby adding hugely to the cost of creating dwellings. The biggest villains are state and territory governments.
This is the case everywhere in Australia – notably in Sydney where the median price for residential land is double that of Melbourne – but the ACT Government takes ripping off the real estate process to a whole new level.
It controls land supply to the nth degree, drip-feeding new allotments to the market in a way that guarantees demand will always exceed supply many times over, thereby keeping prices high and maximizing government revenue. The industry complains bitterly about it, the Government denies it, and nothing ever changes.
But the ACT Government keeps finding new and interesting ways to squeeze ever more revenue out of the housing construction industry in Canberra – and with each new measure the cost of dwelling creation rises and affordability deteriorates. One of its more cynical moves was to announce it was phasing out stamp duty – and then massively increased rates to compensate.
So it was unsurprising to read that the ACT Government has just come up an innovative new method of ripping more taxes out of the dwelling creation process.
It’s a new $30,000-per-unit development tax, which developers say will make it uneconomic to turn residential blocks into townhouses and units - and will destroy infill development.
They also accuse the ACT Government of attempting to maximise revenue by making its own land in the Northbourne corridor, the Fluffy blocks and new suburbs the only land viable for redevelopment. If they’re right with this accusation, it would continue a persistent theme in the ACT.
At the moment, if builders buy a house block in a suburb such as Dickson or Turner - or any suburbs built before 1971 - to convert to units, they face a "strata tile" charge of $7500 a unit for the first three units and $5000 a unit after that.
But under a new tax lurking in the small print of the June Budget, the charge is hiked to $30,000 a unit. For a six-unit development, that pushes the total bill from $37,500 to $180,000. It’s a massive tax rise by any measure. 
There has been understandable outcry from the Master Builders Association and the Property Council. But the people who should be shouting the loudest are home-buyers because the underlying costs that affect property values in Canberra just got higher.
Unlike Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide or Hobart, Canberra doesn’t have a single suburb with a median house price below $400,000. Charnwood is the cheapest at $420,000 and the ACT Government is the primary culprit – not the scapegoats that everyone seems to prefer like foreign buyers or negatively-geared investors. It's the greedy, idiotic territory government.
The Canberra Times reported: “The development industry says the change will capture at least 95% of residential redevelopment in the older suburbs … and will benefit the government's land profits and help it sell the over-supply of Fluffy blocks by making it impossible for other landowners to compete with the government land. Government land will not attract the charge because it doesn't involve a lease variation.”
It also reported: “Independent Property group director of project planning David Shearer said it was a radical policy change that targeted home-owners, was ‘a very effective way to tax the family home’, with owners already bearing the brunt of huge rates increases, and would bring development to ‘a screaming halt’. And he accused the government of ‘an incredibly arrogant’ lack of warning or consultation.”
He’s probably right, judging by the ACT Government’s track record on these issues.
In a statement, Chief Minister Andrew Barr said lease variation charges were an "economically robust taxation mechanism which ensures the community shares in the unearned windfall gain developers receive from changes to a lease that substantially increase the value of the land".
It’s a typically cheap and nasty political tactic – slug developers on the basis that everyone sees them as greedy rich bastards and hope that no one figures out the people who will really pay are the end-users – the buyers of dwellings, such as first home buyers.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate: Terry Ryder 

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GUEST OBSERVER
Dwelling prices increased across Australia’s eight capital cities by 10.2 percent over the year to March 2017. 
Data released today by the ABS indicate that the pace of dwelling price growth generally remained strong during the first quarter of 2017.
During the first quarter of this year, Sydney and Melbourne continued to record the strongest pace of dwelling price increase. However, the variation in dwelling price growth across the country is significant and house price developments in other markets are much weaker.
This situation underlines the dangers of applying ‘one size fits all’ policy remedies to the challenges in Australia’s housing market.
There is evidence that since March 2017 dwelling price growth has slowed following the introduction of additional restrictions by APRA and increased barriers to foreign investor participation imposed at federal and state level.
The solution to Australia’s considerable housing affordability challenge ultimately lies in delivering a sufficient supply of new dwelling stock in a more cost effective manner. We are concerned that some recent policy changes could undermine this objective.
Over the year to the March 2017 quarter, dwelling price growth was strongest in Sydney (+14.4 percent), followed by Melbourne (+13.4 percent) and Hobart (+11.3 percent). Dwelling prices also increased in Canberra (+8.9 percent), Adelaide (+5.0 percent) and Brisbane (+3.5 percent) over the same period.
In the year to March 2017, dwelling prices were down by 3.5 percent in Perth and 5.9 percent in Darwin. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-20%20at%201.07.12%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-20%20at%201.07.12%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Shane Garrett is senior economist for HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Dwelling price pressures remain strong: Shane Garrett

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The National Australian Bank has tipped a halving of house price growth in the nation's major capitals because of rising rates, tougher regulation and falling affordability.
Other factors contributing to the scenario include slow wages growth, falling overseas demand, record low rental yields and a big increase in apartment supply in some cities.
House prices are expected to grow by about 4.3 percent next year, which is less than half the current rate in four of the nation's capital cities.
Apartment values are expected to go into reverse dropping 0.4 percent, according to the bank's analysis.
The report follows research by ANZ earlier this month saying housing price growth would slow to 4.4 percent this calendar year down from 10.9 percent last year.
The NAB report, being circulated among mortgage brokers, claims property is "more resilient than expected", led by strong growth in Sydney and Melbourne shrugging off concerns about apartment over-supply.
House prices across the nation are expected to grow by 7.2 percent with apartments by 6.8 percent for the remainder of 2017.
"Ongoing strength in housing demand is expected to help offset supply concerns, although policy responses are creating additional uncertainty," the report says.
"On a more positive note, population growth is expected to remain solid, especially in Victoria, helping to drive underlying demand and soak-up some of the feared excess in supply," it says.
The NAB has increased its price projections for Sydney for the remainder of the year from 4.5 percent to 10.5 percent.
"Price forecasts have been revised higher, but risks still linger," the report says of the Sydney market.
It has also revised growth for Melbourne from 5.6 percent to 10.8 percent for this year before slipping to 5.5 percent next year.
"Melbourne is performing well, although over-supply concerns drive a wedge between house and unit prices. This divergence is expected to continue," the report concludes according to the Australian Financial Review article.
Brisbane's apartment sector will continue to under-perform but overall growth is "relatively steady", the report states.
House prices are expected to increase by 1 percent and 2 percent next year. Apartment prices are likely to fall by up to 2 percent this year and next.
Adelaide is steady, despite low economic growth and high unemployment. Adelaide house prices are expected to grow about 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2018.
Perth's apartment and house prices are expected to continue fall by up to 6 percent during the remainder of the year.
"Tentative signs that both the local economy and property market may stabilise in the medium term suggest we could see flat-to-modestly higher prices from 2018," the report states.
Prices in Hobart have been accelerating because of an improving economy and affordability.
"Further gains are expected, but at a slower rate," the report concludes. House prices in the Tasmanian capital are expected to grow by about 7 percent this year and slow to 1.7 percent next. Unit prices are also expected to slow.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB forecasts price growth to halve in 2018

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Housing affordability improved across all states and territories in the first quarter of 2017, however the number of first home buyers now making up the total owner occupied housing at 13.4 percent, according to the Adelaide Bank/REIA Housing Affordability Report.
The Adelaide Bank/REIA Housing Affordability Report found the proportion of median family income required to meet average loan repayments decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 30.4 percent.
Malcolm Gunning, president, REIA said first home buyers now make up 13.4 percent of total owner occupied housing.
"This rate has been dropping steadily over the past 5 years yet seems to have stabilised over the past 18 months," he said.
“The average loan size to first home buyers decreased by 3.2 percent over the March quarter and decreased by 0.4 percent over the past twelve months, to $313,433.
"Over the quarter, the average loan size to first home buyers increased in South Australia and Tasmania.
“It will be interesting to see the effects that stamp duty exemptions and concessions announced in Victoria and more recently in NSW have on first home buyers.
“We anticipate that more first home buyers will be enticed to enter the market place. However, it will take time for any response to filter into our data as the changes do not come into effect until 1 July 2017 in either state.
"Over the March quarter, the proportion of median family income required to meet rent payments increased by 0.1 percentage points to 24.6 percent.
"Rental affordability improved marginally in New South Wales, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
"Historically, rental affordability declined markedly from the June quarter 2007 reaching its lowest point in the March quarter 2010. Since then rental affordability has been showing a trend improvement reflecting the pickup in investment in housing from the end of 2011."
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