Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Dwelling Prices

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There’s a pattern with dwelling prices in Australian cities and in simple terms it’s this: the bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate.
Sydney is more expensive than Melbourne, which is pricier than Brisbane, which outranks Perth, which is dearer than Adelaide, which has higher prices than Hobart. The benchmark I’m using is the median house price.
But there’s one city that doesn’t adhere to the pattern and it’s Canberra. Canberra is a small and relatively insignificant place in terms of its population and economy – but it has some of the nation’s most expensive real estate.
Canberra’s median dwelling price (around $600,000, according to CoreLogic) is much higher than the medians for Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and not a lot behind Melbourne’s $660,000.
There are multiple reasons why this is the case. As a government town, Canberra tends to have low unemployment and high average incomes – and that has an influence on real estate values.
But the biggest single reason – and one that speaks to the core of the housing affordability debate nationwide – is the control exercised by the ACT Government.
I strongly believe that the nub of affordability issues – and the source of the most workable solutions to the issues where they exist – is the high cost of producing new dwellings in Australia. The costs are unnecessarily high because all three levels of government mercilessly milk the housing industry cash cow, thereby adding hugely to the cost of creating dwellings. The biggest villains are state and territory governments.
This is the case everywhere in Australia – notably in Sydney where the median price for residential land is double that of Melbourne – but the ACT Government takes ripping off the real estate process to a whole new level.
It controls land supply to the nth degree, drip-feeding new allotments to the market in a way that guarantees demand will always exceed supply many times over, thereby keeping prices high and maximizing government revenue. The industry complains bitterly about it, the Government denies it, and nothing ever changes.
But the ACT Government keeps finding new and interesting ways to squeeze ever more revenue out of the housing construction industry in Canberra – and with each new measure the cost of dwelling creation rises and affordability deteriorates. One of its more cynical moves was to announce it was phasing out stamp duty – and then massively increased rates to compensate.
So it was unsurprising to read that the ACT Government has just come up an innovative new method of ripping more taxes out of the dwelling creation process.
It’s a new $30,000-per-unit development tax, which developers say will make it uneconomic to turn residential blocks into townhouses and units - and will destroy infill development.
They also accuse the ACT Government of attempting to maximise revenue by making its own land in the Northbourne corridor, the Fluffy blocks and new suburbs the only land viable for redevelopment. If they’re right with this accusation, it would continue a persistent theme in the ACT.
At the moment, if builders buy a house block in a suburb such as Dickson or Turner - or any suburbs built before 1971 - to convert to units, they face a "strata tile" charge of $7500 a unit for the first three units and $5000 a unit after that.
But under a new tax lurking in the small print of the June Budget, the charge is hiked to $30,000 a unit. For a six-unit development, that pushes the total bill from $37,500 to $180,000. It’s a massive tax rise by any measure. 
There has been understandable outcry from the Master Builders Association and the Property Council. But the people who should be shouting the loudest are home-buyers because the underlying costs that affect property values in Canberra just got higher.
Unlike Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide or Hobart, Canberra doesn’t have a single suburb with a median house price below $400,000. Charnwood is the cheapest at $420,000 and the ACT Government is the primary culprit – not the scapegoats that everyone seems to prefer like foreign buyers or negatively-geared investors. It's the greedy, idiotic territory government.
The Canberra Times reported: “The development industry says the change will capture at least 95% of residential redevelopment in the older suburbs … and will benefit the government's land profits and help it sell the over-supply of Fluffy blocks by making it impossible for other landowners to compete with the government land. Government land will not attract the charge because it doesn't involve a lease variation.”
It also reported: “Independent Property group director of project planning David Shearer said it was a radical policy change that targeted home-owners, was ‘a very effective way to tax the family home’, with owners already bearing the brunt of huge rates increases, and would bring development to ‘a screaming halt’. And he accused the government of ‘an incredibly arrogant’ lack of warning or consultation.”
He’s probably right, judging by the ACT Government’s track record on these issues.
In a statement, Chief Minister Andrew Barr said lease variation charges were an "economically robust taxation mechanism which ensures the community shares in the unearned windfall gain developers receive from changes to a lease that substantially increase the value of the land".
It’s a typically cheap and nasty political tactic – slug developers on the basis that everyone sees them as greedy rich bastards and hope that no one figures out the people who will really pay are the end-users – the buyers of dwellings, such as first home buyers.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate: Terry Ryder 

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Capital city residential property prices rose by 2.2 percent in the March 2017 quarter, to be 10.2 percent higher over the year.
Apartment price growth has been strong in Sydney in recent years, but overall established house prices have comfortably outperformed through this cycle to date, partly reflecting an apartment overbuild in some regions. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">
The total value of Australia's dwelling stock has now increased by 50 per cent since December 2011, rising by $2.2 trillion to a total of a shade over $6.6 trillion. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">  
Sydney leads, for now
Over the year to March the strongest price growth was recorded by Sydney (14.4 per cent) and Melbourne (13.4 per cent), though it seems highly likely that Sydney's annual growth rate is now firmly on a downwards trajectory from here. 
At the other end of the scale more annual price declines were suffered by Perth (-3.5 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent). 
The tight Hobart market recorded the strongest quarterly gain (3.4 per cent) to be up by a boisterous 11.3 per cent over the past year. 
Indexing the numbers back to 2003 shows how long run dwelling price performance between the capital cities is converging, with the resources capitals coming back down to earth following the peak of the mining boom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" alt="">
At the state level New South Wales has seen a huge surge in its mean dwelling price which has increased from $535,300 at the end of 2011 to $886,800, for an absolute increase of $351,500 or 66 per cent.  
Reflecting the end of the resources construction boom, over the same timeframe mean prices were up by only 3 per cent in Western Australia and declined by 2 per cent in the Northern Territory. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" alt="">
Nationally the mean dwelling price has increased by $182,800 or 38 per cent since the end of 2011. 
Of the $2.2 trillion increase in the total value of the dwelling stock since 2011, the three most populous states of New South Wales ($1.2 trillion), Victoria ($0.6 trillion), and Queensland ($206 billion) together accounted for 91.5 per cent of the increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" alt="">
Supply response picks up
Finally, a quick look at the net increase in the dwelling stock, which has picked up the pace in swelling by 194,000 dwellings over the year to March 2017. 
The March stock figures are preliminary and subject to revision - the increase looks decidedly low in New South Wales, for example - but the annual rate of increase has clearly picked up the pace since 2012.
It's interesting to note that while Victoria has increased the size of its dwelling stock by 10.3 per cent over the past half decade - much faster than the 6.7 per cent increase in New South Wales - the strong annual increase of 2.2 per cent is still only just ahead of the state's rampant rate of population growth.
The wrap 
There were more strong gains in dwelling prices in Sydney (3 per cent) and Melbourne (3.1 per cent) across the first quarter of the calendar year.
Meanwhile Adelaide prices rose by 1.5 per cent to be 5 per cent higher over the year, and Canberra snuck in under the radar to record annual growth of 8.9 per cent. 
The above having been said, the double digit annual growth rate is likely to represent the peak for this cycle, with a raft of macroprudential measures appearing well set to douse investor activity. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Capital city prices rise 10 percent

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The recovery in the Australian housing market continues, with the ABS today reporting a 0.8 per cent gain in property values across the nation's capital cities over the September quarter.

Seven out of the eight states and territories saw gains, with only Melbourne, who endured further lockdowns, seeing a contraction. Their values however only scaled back -0.3 per cent.

The best performer was Adelaide, whose dwelling values rose 1.6 per cent over the quarter. They were closely followed by Brisbane (+1.5 per cent) and Perth (+1.4 per cent).

Hobart's +1.2 per cent gains made it the best performer over the last 12 months, with values up six per cent since the September quarter 2019.

Sydney values rose one per cent in the September quarter to be the next best yearly performer, up 5.4 per cent since this time last year.

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:500px;">
<caption>September Qtr Property Prices</caption>
	<thead><tr>
<th scope="col">Residential Property Prices</th>
			<th scope="col">June Qtr 20 to Sept Qtr 20</th>
			<th scope="col">June Qtr 19 to Sept Qtr 19</th>
		</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Weighted average of capital cities</td>
			<td>
			0.8%
			</td>
			<td>
			4.5%
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Sydney</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">5.4%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Melbourne</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">-0.3%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">4.7%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Brisbane</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.5%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">3.1%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Adelaide</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.6%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">2.6%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Perth</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.4%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">2.4%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Hobart</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.2%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">6%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Darwin</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">0.8%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">-0.7%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Canberra</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">0.9%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">5%</td>
		</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Andrew Tomadini, said new lending commitments to households, auction clearance rates and sales transactions all improved during the September quarter.

"Residential property transactions rose in a number of capital cities in the September quarter 2020. Substantial increases were observed in Sydney and Brisbane", Mr Tomadini said.

"Property prices continued to fall in Melbourne in the September quarter, due to the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions. Melbourne house prices fell 0.3 per cent and attached dwelling prices fell 0.2 per cent."

The total value of Australia’s 10.6 million residential dwellings rose by $87.8 billion to $7,283.3 billion in the September quarter 2020. The mean price of residential dwellings in Australia is now $689,500.

The number of residential dwellings rose by 44,000 to 10,562,800.
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Property prices rise 0.8 per cent in September quarter: ABS 

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Capital city home prices fell for the second consecutive month: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
After a material 10.7% correction over the previous two years, Australian dwelling prices have posted a clear recovery since mid-2019, the pace accelerating month to month.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities rose 2% in Nov following a 1.4% gain in Oct, a 1.1% gain in Sep and a 1% gain in Aug.
Annual price growth ticked up to 0.4%yr, the first positive annual pace since March 2018. Prices are still 5.1% below their Sep 2017 peak but could surpass that level in early 2020 if the rebound continues at its current pace.
Several factors have contributed to the turnaround including: reduced uncertainty around housing-related tax policy following the Federal election in May; 75bps in rate cuts from the RBA; and some easing in regulatory guidelines for loan serviceability assessments. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%201.jpg" alt="">
All major capital cities recorded gains in Nov, as did most smaller capitals and non-capital city areas within states. Only Darwin, and regional areas in WA and NT recorded declines in Nov. In annual growth terms, Sydney and Melbourne are both seeing positive gains, but prices in other major capital cities and are still down on a year ago. 
Sydney recorded a thumping 2.7% gain in Nov, the strongest monthly rise since Oct 1988. Prices are up 1.6%yr but still 9.4% below their peak in mid-2017. Houses and top and middle tier properties are now outpacing other segments.
Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak. As with Sydney, houses and top tier properties are leading the gains. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane dwelling prices posted a solid 0.8% rise for the second month in a row – the best back to back gains the market has seen in a while but with prices still down slightly by 0.5% on a year ago. Houses and 'top tier' property are showing a more meaningful lift. 
Perth dwelling prices posted a 0.4% gain, the first positive month since Apr 2018. The gain was driven by a 0.9% rise in 'top tier' properties, other segments flat or down slightly. Prices overall are still down 7.7%yr. 
Across the other capital city markets: Adelaide dwelling prices rose 0.5% but still down 0.5%yr; Canberra rose 1.6%mth, 3%yr; Hobart rose 2.3%mth, 4.2%yr; and Darwin fell 1.2%mth to be down –10.9%yr.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
The recovery that began mid-year has now gained significant momentum and is starting to broaden.
It remains a 'thin' market sales-wise but buyer sentiment points to a further lift in demand in early 2020.
Price gains are expected to moderate as supply starts to lift and as affordability strains re-emerge.
See our latest <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/41257/180/" target="_blank">Westpac Housing Pulse</a> report for a more detailed run down on the situation and outlook.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191202BullDwellPricesNov.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian dwelling prices November'</a>.
Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist at Westpac.
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian dwelling prices rebound: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The correction in Australian dwelling prices that has been running since late 2017 may have ended. 
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, dipped 0.1% in June to be down 8.0% over the year – still weak but marking the first month to month improvement in the annual growth rate since its peak at +11.3%yr in mid 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%201%20.jpg" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne both recorded their first monthly price gains since the correction began in 2017. However, prices continued to slip elsewhere with most other capital cities showing a deterioration over the last three months.
Melbourne dwelling prices rose 0.2% in June, paring the annual pace of decline back to 9.2% over the year. Units are leading the turnaround, prices in this segment up 0.7% over the last two months. Prices in the top 25% of properties by value also outperformed slightly, albeit coming off more material declines through the correction.
Sydney dwellings recorded a 0.1% price gain in June, the annual pace of decline slowing to 9.9% over the year. The gain here centred on the middle and top tiers of the market which have moved through a more material correction over the last two years. Units slightly outperformed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Other major markets were considerably weaker in the month, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide all recording monthly price declines and accelerating annual rates of contraction. 
Perth's long-running correction is showing few signs of reprieve, prices down 0.6% in the month,  and 9.1% over the year. 
Brisbane, which was stable through 2018, has continued to see modest but worsening price slippage in 2019, prices down 0.6% in the month, and 2.6% over the year. 
 Adelaide has also slipped into a slight correction, prices down 0.5% in the month, and 0.3% over the year.
Conditions were mostly soft cross the smaller markets as well: Canberra down 0.9% in the month, lowering annual growth to just 1.4% over the year; Darwin down 0.9% in the month, the long-running correction re-accelerating to 9.6% over the year (a similar theme to Perth); but Hobart recording a 0.2% gain in the month holding annual growth in positive at 2.9% over the year. 
Overall, the weakness still evident in other markets takes some of the gloss off the clear improvement showing through in Sydney-Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
 
It also cautions against putting too much emphasis on the improving tone from weekly auction results which are not representative of conditions outside of these two markets.
The contrasting performance of the major cities may be an indication that swings in investor demand around the Federal election have been key – this segment tends to be more active in Sydney and Melbourne – and that other factors such as those around affordability, credit availability and borrowing capacity may still be weighing on owner occupier demand.
The finance approval data should shed some light on this in coming weeks.
The mix should become more balanced over the the second half of 2020 lower interest rates and a likely relaxation in regulatory guidelines for loan assessments comes through.
For the record, Westpac expects dwelling prices to remain patchy in 2019, with a stabilisation showing through more clearly in 2020.
Any rebound in prices before then is likely to quickly run into affordability constraints.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%201.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%202.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%207.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%201%20.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%202.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%203.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%204.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/property%20value%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%205.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/property%20value%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%206.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/2/auction%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/2/auction%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/2/real%20price.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/2/real%20price.jpg" alt="">
 
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Is the dwelling price correction over? Matthew Hassan

Rising prospect that the RBA will cut before hiking: Shane Oliver

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 2.8% to 104.3 in November from 101.5 in October.
That was a surprisingly strong result. In particular, respondents are much more positive about their own finances. That is despite consistent reports around weakness in the housing markets in the major capitals and the sharp falls in the equity market through October.
Low interest rates and their prospect of being sustained for some time are clearly supporting confidence.
For example, the confidence of those respondents with a mortgage increased by 4.3%. However, on a more cautionary note, measures of spending intentions have been weaker.
Consumer views around housing were very interesting. Buyer sentiment improved sharply but price expectations fell to new lows.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a strong 11.8% surge to be up 16.7% on a year ago to the highest level since March 2015.
Consumers in NSW showed a particularly strong gain with a 26% jump taking the state index to a five year high and suggesting the decline in Sydney house prices is starting to generate some interest from buyers.
Because the NSW Index has been so low, this stunning improvement only restores the Index to just below its long term average.
The other state, Victoria, where prices have recently shown significant weakness, improved only modestly with “Time to Buy” up only 3.3%.
Consumer expectations for house prices posted another fall in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 2.3% to 99 – on par with the weakest read we have ever seen on this index, when it was first compiled back in May 2009.
The state detail continues to show particularly weak reads in NSW and Victoria, both hitting new lows in November with Victoria’s index down 25% over the last three months alone.
The house price corrections underway in Sydney and Melbourne now look to be firmly embedded in consumer expectations.
In this cycle, Sydney dwelling prices have already fallen by 8.7% while prices in Melbourne are down by 5.1%.
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New lending for housing is also contracting. New lending for “upgraders” (owner occupiers excluding First Home Buyers) has fallen by 13.2% over the last year (October 2017 to September 2018) but more significantly has fallen by 10.7% in the two months to September.
New lending to investors peaked in December 2016 and has fallen by 25.9% in the year to September 2018 and 4% over the last two months.
These developments have largely reflected stretched affordability (on the demand side) in the two cities and tighter lending policies from the four major banks (on the supply side).
Households now expect house prices to continue to fall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations has fallen by 39% for NSW and 41.5% for Victoria over the last year. 
Both indexes moved from prints which indicated that optimists strongly outnumbered pessimists (134 for NSW and 144 for Victoria) to positions where pessimists outnumber optimists (82 for NSW and 84 for Victoria). 
Note that any read below 100 indicates a majority of pessimists.
Furthermore these current levels are the lowest we have registered since Westpac and the Melbourne Institute first started this question in the Consumer Sentiment survey in May 2009.
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<div class="column">
Westpac also calculates measures of housing affordability. These relate to the proportion of income required to accumulate a deposit and service a loan which is 75% of the median house price. These measures of affordability can vary around assumptions related to the time required to accumulate the deposit and whether the 75% is a reasonable assumption.
Based on the estimates being used we assess that affordability in both NSW and Victoria is more stretched than we saw in the previous periods which preceded falls in house prices – 2008/09 and 2010/11.
Peak to trough in those previous periods were falls of 6.4% (Sydney) and 8.7% (Melbourne) in 2008/2009 and 3.4% (Sydney) and 8.2% (Melbourne) in 2010/2012.
The restoration of affordability in those previous periods came through falls in interest rates and house prices while income growth also contributed. Wages growth was running at around 4% in both periods. That compares with current wages growth of 2.3%.
In the 2008/09 period the RBA cut the cash rate by 425 basis points from 7.25% to 3%; in the 2011/12 period it cut rates.
by 175 basis points from 4.75% to 3.00%. The challenge with this particular cycle is that the RBA appears to be absolutely committed to the next move in rates being up.
So in those previous periods affordability and demand were restored through a combination of income growth; substantial rate cuts; and price adjustments. In this current period the responsibility for a restoration of affordability will fall mainly to price adjustments.
The Consumer Sentiment Report indicated that the “Time to Buy a Dwelling” Index had lifted significantly in the weak NSW market.
That might imply that despite continuing stretched affordability, prospective buyers may be considering re-entering the market. That does seem surprising given the downbeat price expectations and stretched affordability.
However, as discussed, in this cycle there is another complication.
We have a different environment from the perspective of credit supply. Banks have tightened credit conditions such that when demand for credit recovers (as may be implied by the “Time to Buy” index for NSW) it may not be as simply accommodated as was the case in those previous periods.
This will complicate the usual adjustment process. Markets stabilise when prospective buyers feel encouraged to re-enter the market. Affordability returning to equilibrium and price expectations turning positive are generally the triggers for markets to recover.
 The “Time to Buy” index for NSW is sending an encouraging early signal but if prospective buyers are unable to secure adequate funding to enter the market, the move to the new equilibrium may be more extended.
In summary it is apparent that this cycle is quite different to the two previous down cycles for dwelling prices. Affordability is more stretched and sources of adjustment are more restricted.
 Furthermore, credit conditions indicate that a recovery in affordability and demand may not be accommodated through credit supply in the same way we saw in previous cycles.
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</div>
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Mixed signals on housing but adjustment process seems likely to have further to run: Bill Evans

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The impact of Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel Project on dwelling prices will be positive for some but negative for others, according to the latest analysis by RiskWise Property Research.
The $6.7 billion project, under construction since January and due to open in 2022, is touted as being a 'game-changer' when it comes to the way people move around the congested city, which is projected to have a population explosion to five million by 2021 and eight million by 2050, according to demographer Bernard Salt.
While the tunnel’s construction will, according to Transurban, reduce peak travel time by up to 20 minutes, take about 28,000 vehicles off West Gate Bridge and 22,000 vehicles off Bolte Bridge daily, generate 6000 new jobs and remove more than 9000 trucks from local streets, not all its effects on the property market will be positive, says RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg.
“There are many positive aspects to the construction of the West Gate Tunnel especially as it is expected to provide a $11 billion boost to the Victorian economy,” Peleg said.
“Dwellings that are well located and in good proximity to transport hubs will have much greater access to the CDB and this means they are projected to have solid capital growth, at least for houses.” 
He said this was particularly the case for houses in Yarraville and Footscray, which already enjoyed strong demand and would deliver outstanding capital growth in the long term. 
“Overall house price growth in Greater Melbourne has decelerated to 2.2% in the past 12 months, however, the five-year capital growth in the city’s western suburbs was 69.1% and this area is projected to deliver a solid long-term capital growth,” he said. 
“What we are seeing is that the inner-city suburbs of Melbourne are following the same demand and capital growth patterns of Sydney's inner-west suburbs where proximity to the CBD, relative affordability (five years ago) and gentrification saw demand increase with very strong property capital growth of 92.7% over five years and solid capital growth predicted in the medium-to-long term.  
“The western suburbs of Melbourne are following the same pattern. Add to that major ‘transformation projects’, and the capital growth is projected to be very good in the long term.
“It is important to note though that the same cannot be said for units in Melbourne which suffer from significant oversupply.  Our research shows that areas with a high level of stock and an elevated number of approvals and units in the pipeline suffer from poor and often negative capital growth, and this significantly increases the settlement risk for units purchased off-the-plan, particularly in larger developments. 
“In Footscray there are 2280 units in the pipeline for the next 24 months, which equals an addition of 41.3% to the current stock.
“Oversupply of apartments in some cases leads to voluntarily lending restrictions by the major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio (LVR) mortgages for new units. These lending restrictions are in addition to broader lending restrictions that have been set by APRA to significantly reduce investor activity."
He said while unit oversupply was a concern, the new infrastructure would likely improve demand, and this could mitigate the risk to some extent.
Peleg said another consideration when it came to any negative consequences of the tunnel was that some dwelling prices could be impacted because they were too close to high-traffic areas which meant they could carry a higher level of risk due to poor demand, and this was the case for both houses and units.
“Major infrastructure can often result in negative outcomes for some properties in the sense that people are excited by it yet tend to forget that some properties will be negatively impacted,” he said.
“About 350 houses will sit above the tunnel, which will run at least 18m beneath the ground, and while the state government has promised compensation to those whose properties are damaged by underground boring, it is likely to reduce demand and prices for those affected.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How Melbourne's West Gate Tunnel will impact property prices

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<div class="x_WordSection1">EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div class="x_WordSection1"> </div>
<div class="x_WordSection1">Australian capital city dwelling prices fell for the sixth month in a row in April, with a fall of -0.3% in April which left prices down -0.3% from a year ago.</div>
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<div class="x_WordSection1">Weakness continues to be led by Sydney (-0.4%mom/-3.4%yoy) and Melbourne (-0.4%/+3.7%yoy) with most other cities seeing gains. </div>
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<div class="x_WordSection1">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/1/cooling.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div class="x_WordSection1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/1/cooling.jpg" alt=""></div>
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Last year’s APRA driven tightening in lending standards for interest only borrowers is clearly continuing to impact and along with poor affordability, rising supply, falling price growth expectations and the end of FOMO (fear of missing out) are pushing prices down in cities which have seen strong gains over the last few years, ie Sydney and Melbourne.
The latest round of tightening bank lending standards around borrower’s income and expenses will add to this. We expect prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall another 5% this year, another 5% next year and to still be falling in 2020.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/1/downside.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/1/downside.jpg" alt="">
However, having not had the same boom over the last five or six years other capital cities are likely to perform better. Perth and Darwin look to have bottomed, Adelaide, Brisbane and Canberra are likely to see moderate growth and the boom in Hobart (+1.2%mom/+12.7%yoy) is likely to continue for a while yet.
Similarly home prices in regional centres (+0.4%mom/+2.4%yoy) are likely to hold up better with continuing modest growth as generally speaking they haven’t had the same boom as Sydney and Melbourne and so offer much better value and much higher rental yields.
Despite the surge in supply capital city unit prices (+0.1%mom/+1.9%yoy) are continuing to hold up better than house prices. This may reflect the entrance of more first home buyers following last year’s stamp duty concessions for them in some states and a perception that a new unit closer to transport may offer better value than a stand alone house. I would still be cautious in areas with lots of cranes though!
Implications for interest rates
The continuing weakness in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne with more to go is consistent with our view that the RBA will leave rates on hold out to 2020. Home price weakness is now at levels where the RBA started cutting rates in 2008 and 2011.
 
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