Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Dwelling Prices

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There’s a pattern with dwelling prices in Australian cities and in simple terms it’s this: the bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate.
Sydney is more expensive than Melbourne, which is pricier than Brisbane, which outranks Perth, which is dearer than Adelaide, which has higher prices than Hobart. The benchmark I’m using is the median house price.
But there’s one city that doesn’t adhere to the pattern and it’s Canberra. Canberra is a small and relatively insignificant place in terms of its population and economy – but it has some of the nation’s most expensive real estate.
Canberra’s median dwelling price (around $600,000, according to CoreLogic) is much higher than the medians for Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – and not a lot behind Melbourne’s $660,000.
There are multiple reasons why this is the case. As a government town, Canberra tends to have low unemployment and high average incomes – and that has an influence on real estate values.
But the biggest single reason – and one that speaks to the core of the housing affordability debate nationwide – is the control exercised by the ACT Government.
I strongly believe that the nub of affordability issues – and the source of the most workable solutions to the issues where they exist – is the high cost of producing new dwellings in Australia. The costs are unnecessarily high because all three levels of government mercilessly milk the housing industry cash cow, thereby adding hugely to the cost of creating dwellings. The biggest villains are state and territory governments.
This is the case everywhere in Australia – notably in Sydney where the median price for residential land is double that of Melbourne – but the ACT Government takes ripping off the real estate process to a whole new level.
It controls land supply to the nth degree, drip-feeding new allotments to the market in a way that guarantees demand will always exceed supply many times over, thereby keeping prices high and maximizing government revenue. The industry complains bitterly about it, the Government denies it, and nothing ever changes.
But the ACT Government keeps finding new and interesting ways to squeeze ever more revenue out of the housing construction industry in Canberra – and with each new measure the cost of dwelling creation rises and affordability deteriorates. One of its more cynical moves was to announce it was phasing out stamp duty – and then massively increased rates to compensate.
So it was unsurprising to read that the ACT Government has just come up an innovative new method of ripping more taxes out of the dwelling creation process.
It’s a new $30,000-per-unit development tax, which developers say will make it uneconomic to turn residential blocks into townhouses and units - and will destroy infill development.
They also accuse the ACT Government of attempting to maximise revenue by making its own land in the Northbourne corridor, the Fluffy blocks and new suburbs the only land viable for redevelopment. If they’re right with this accusation, it would continue a persistent theme in the ACT.
At the moment, if builders buy a house block in a suburb such as Dickson or Turner - or any suburbs built before 1971 - to convert to units, they face a "strata tile" charge of $7500 a unit for the first three units and $5000 a unit after that.
But under a new tax lurking in the small print of the June Budget, the charge is hiked to $30,000 a unit. For a six-unit development, that pushes the total bill from $37,500 to $180,000. It’s a massive tax rise by any measure. 
There has been understandable outcry from the Master Builders Association and the Property Council. But the people who should be shouting the loudest are home-buyers because the underlying costs that affect property values in Canberra just got higher.
Unlike Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide or Hobart, Canberra doesn’t have a single suburb with a median house price below $400,000. Charnwood is the cheapest at $420,000 and the ACT Government is the primary culprit – not the scapegoats that everyone seems to prefer like foreign buyers or negatively-geared investors. It's the greedy, idiotic territory government.
The Canberra Times reported: “The development industry says the change will capture at least 95% of residential redevelopment in the older suburbs … and will benefit the government's land profits and help it sell the over-supply of Fluffy blocks by making it impossible for other landowners to compete with the government land. Government land will not attract the charge because it doesn't involve a lease variation.”
It also reported: “Independent Property group director of project planning David Shearer said it was a radical policy change that targeted home-owners, was ‘a very effective way to tax the family home’, with owners already bearing the brunt of huge rates increases, and would bring development to ‘a screaming halt’. And he accused the government of ‘an incredibly arrogant’ lack of warning or consultation.”
He’s probably right, judging by the ACT Government’s track record on these issues.
In a statement, Chief Minister Andrew Barr said lease variation charges were an "economically robust taxation mechanism which ensures the community shares in the unearned windfall gain developers receive from changes to a lease that substantially increase the value of the land".
It’s a typically cheap and nasty political tactic – slug developers on the basis that everyone sees them as greedy rich bastards and hope that no one figures out the people who will really pay are the end-users – the buyers of dwellings, such as first home buyers.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The bigger the city, the more expensive the real estate: Terry Ryder 

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Capital city residential property prices rose by 2.2 percent in the March 2017 quarter, to be 10.2 percent higher over the year.
Apartment price growth has been strong in Sydney in recent years, but overall established house prices have comfortably outperformed through this cycle to date, partly reflecting an apartment overbuild in some regions. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">
The total value of Australia's dwelling stock has now increased by 50 per cent since December 2011, rising by $2.2 trillion to a total of a shade over $6.6 trillion. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A4.jpg" alt="">  
Sydney leads, for now
Over the year to March the strongest price growth was recorded by Sydney (14.4 per cent) and Melbourne (13.4 per cent), though it seems highly likely that Sydney's annual growth rate is now firmly on a downwards trajectory from here. 
At the other end of the scale more annual price declines were suffered by Perth (-3.5 per cent) and Darwin (-5.9 per cent). 
The tight Hobart market recorded the strongest quarterly gain (3.4 per cent) to be up by a boisterous 11.3 per cent over the past year. 
Indexing the numbers back to 2003 shows how long run dwelling price performance between the capital cities is converging, with the resources capitals coming back down to earth following the peak of the mining boom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A5.jpg" alt="">
At the state level New South Wales has seen a huge surge in its mean dwelling price which has increased from $535,300 at the end of 2011 to $886,800, for an absolute increase of $351,500 or 66 per cent.  
Reflecting the end of the resources construction boom, over the same timeframe mean prices were up by only 3 per cent in Western Australia and declined by 2 per cent in the Northern Territory. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A6.jpg" alt="">
Nationally the mean dwelling price has increased by $182,800 or 38 per cent since the end of 2011. 
Of the $2.2 trillion increase in the total value of the dwelling stock since 2011, the three most populous states of New South Wales ($1.2 trillion), Victoria ($0.6 trillion), and Queensland ($206 billion) together accounted for 91.5 per cent of the increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/A3.jpg" alt="">
Supply response picks up
Finally, a quick look at the net increase in the dwelling stock, which has picked up the pace in swelling by 194,000 dwellings over the year to March 2017. 
The March stock figures are preliminary and subject to revision - the increase looks decidedly low in New South Wales, for example - but the annual rate of increase has clearly picked up the pace since 2012.
It's interesting to note that while Victoria has increased the size of its dwelling stock by 10.3 per cent over the past half decade - much faster than the 6.7 per cent increase in New South Wales - the strong annual increase of 2.2 per cent is still only just ahead of the state's rampant rate of population growth.
The wrap 
There were more strong gains in dwelling prices in Sydney (3 per cent) and Melbourne (3.1 per cent) across the first quarter of the calendar year.
Meanwhile Adelaide prices rose by 1.5 per cent to be 5 per cent higher over the year, and Canberra snuck in under the radar to record annual growth of 8.9 per cent. 
The above having been said, the double digit annual growth rate is likely to represent the peak for this cycle, with a raft of macroprudential measures appearing well set to douse investor activity. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Capital city prices rise 10 percent

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The recovery in the Australian housing market continues, with the ABS today reporting a 0.8 per cent gain in property values across the nation's capital cities over the September quarter.

Seven out of the eight states and territories saw gains, with only Melbourne, who endured further lockdowns, seeing a contraction. Their values however only scaled back -0.3 per cent.

The best performer was Adelaide, whose dwelling values rose 1.6 per cent over the quarter. They were closely followed by Brisbane (+1.5 per cent) and Perth (+1.4 per cent).

Hobart's +1.2 per cent gains made it the best performer over the last 12 months, with values up six per cent since the September quarter 2019.

Sydney values rose one per cent in the September quarter to be the next best yearly performer, up 5.4 per cent since this time last year.

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:500px;">
<caption>September Qtr Property Prices</caption>
	<thead><tr>
<th scope="col">Residential Property Prices</th>
			<th scope="col">June Qtr 20 to Sept Qtr 20</th>
			<th scope="col">June Qtr 19 to Sept Qtr 19</th>
		</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Weighted average of capital cities</td>
			<td>
			0.8%
			</td>
			<td>
			4.5%
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Sydney</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">5.4%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Melbourne</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">-0.3%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">4.7%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Brisbane</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.5%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">3.1%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Adelaide</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.6%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">2.6%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Perth</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.4%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">2.4%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Hobart</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">1.2%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">6%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Darwin</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">0.8%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">-0.7%</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td class="rtecenter">Canberra</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">0.9%</td>
			<td class="rtecenter">5%</td>
		</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Andrew Tomadini, said new lending commitments to households, auction clearance rates and sales transactions all improved during the September quarter.

"Residential property transactions rose in a number of capital cities in the September quarter 2020. Substantial increases were observed in Sydney and Brisbane", Mr Tomadini said.

"Property prices continued to fall in Melbourne in the September quarter, due to the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions. Melbourne house prices fell 0.3 per cent and attached dwelling prices fell 0.2 per cent."

The total value of Australia’s 10.6 million residential dwellings rose by $87.8 billion to $7,283.3 billion in the September quarter 2020. The mean price of residential dwellings in Australia is now $689,500.

The number of residential dwellings rose by 44,000 to 10,562,800.
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Property prices rise 0.8 per cent in September quarter: ABS 

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Capital city home prices fell for the second consecutive month: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
After a material 10.7% correction over the previous two years, Australian dwelling prices have posted a clear recovery since mid-2019, the pace accelerating month to month.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities rose 2% in Nov following a 1.4% gain in Oct, a 1.1% gain in Sep and a 1% gain in Aug.
Annual price growth ticked up to 0.4%yr, the first positive annual pace since March 2018. Prices are still 5.1% below their Sep 2017 peak but could surpass that level in early 2020 if the rebound continues at its current pace.
Several factors have contributed to the turnaround including: reduced uncertainty around housing-related tax policy following the Federal election in May; 75bps in rate cuts from the RBA; and some easing in regulatory guidelines for loan serviceability assessments. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%201.jpg" alt="">
All major capital cities recorded gains in Nov, as did most smaller capitals and non-capital city areas within states. Only Darwin, and regional areas in WA and NT recorded declines in Nov. In annual growth terms, Sydney and Melbourne are both seeing positive gains, but prices in other major capital cities and are still down on a year ago. 
Sydney recorded a thumping 2.7% gain in Nov, the strongest monthly rise since Oct 1988. Prices are up 1.6%yr but still 9.4% below their peak in mid-2017. Houses and top and middle tier properties are now outpacing other segments.
Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak. As with Sydney, houses and top tier properties are leading the gains. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane dwelling prices posted a solid 0.8% rise for the second month in a row – the best back to back gains the market has seen in a while but with prices still down slightly by 0.5% on a year ago. Houses and 'top tier' property are showing a more meaningful lift. 
Perth dwelling prices posted a 0.4% gain, the first positive month since Apr 2018. The gain was driven by a 0.9% rise in 'top tier' properties, other segments flat or down slightly. Prices overall are still down 7.7%yr. 
Across the other capital city markets: Adelaide dwelling prices rose 0.5% but still down 0.5%yr; Canberra rose 1.6%mth, 3%yr; Hobart rose 2.3%mth, 4.2%yr; and Darwin fell 1.2%mth to be down –10.9%yr.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
The recovery that began mid-year has now gained significant momentum and is starting to broaden.
It remains a 'thin' market sales-wise but buyer sentiment points to a further lift in demand in early 2020.
Price gains are expected to moderate as supply starts to lift and as affordability strains re-emerge.
See our latest <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/41257/180/" target="_blank">Westpac Housing Pulse</a> report for a more detailed run down on the situation and outlook.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191202BullDwellPricesNov.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian dwelling prices November'</a>.
Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist at Westpac.
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian dwelling prices rebound: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The correction in Australian dwelling prices that has been running since late 2017 may have ended. 
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, dipped 0.1% in June to be down 8.0% over the year – still weak but marking the first month to month improvement in the annual growth rate since its peak at +11.3%yr in mid 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%201%20.jpg" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne both recorded their first monthly price gains since the correction began in 2017. However, prices continued to slip elsewhere with most other capital cities showing a deterioration over the last three months.
Melbourne dwelling prices rose 0.2% in June, paring the annual pace of decline back to 9.2% over the year. Units are leading the turnaround, prices in this segment up 0.7% over the last two months. Prices in the top 25% of properties by value also outperformed slightly, albeit coming off more material declines through the correction.
Sydney dwellings recorded a 0.1% price gain in June, the annual pace of decline slowing to 9.9% over the year. The gain here centred on the middle and top tiers of the market which have moved through a more material correction over the last two years. Units slightly outperformed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Other major markets were considerably weaker in the month, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide all recording monthly price declines and accelerating annual rates of contraction. 
Perth's long-running correction is showing few signs of reprieve, prices down 0.6% in the month,  and 9.1% over the year. 
Brisbane, which was stable through 2018, has continued to see modest but worsening price slippage in 2019, prices down 0.6% in the month, and 2.6% over the year. 
 Adelaide has also slipped into a slight correction, prices down 0.5% in the month, and 0.3% over the year.
Conditions were mostly soft cross the smaller markets as well: Canberra down 0.9% in the month, lowering annual growth to just 1.4% over the year; Darwin down 0.9% in the month, the long-running correction re-accelerating to 9.6% over the year (a similar theme to Perth); but Hobart recording a 0.2% gain in the month holding annual growth in positive at 2.9% over the year. 
Overall, the weakness still evident in other markets takes some of the gloss off the clear improvement showing through in Sydney-Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
 
It also cautions against putting too much emphasis on the improving tone from weekly auction results which are not representative of conditions outside of these two markets.
The contrasting performance of the major cities may be an indication that swings in investor demand around the Federal election have been key – this segment tends to be more active in Sydney and Melbourne – and that other factors such as those around affordability, credit availability and borrowing capacity may still be weighing on owner occupier demand.
The finance approval data should shed some light on this in coming weeks.
The mix should become more balanced over the the second half of 2020 lower interest rates and a likely relaxation in regulatory guidelines for loan assessments comes through.
For the record, Westpac expects dwelling prices to remain patchy in 2019, with a stabilisation showing through more clearly in 2020.
Any rebound in prices before then is likely to quickly run into affordability constraints.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/dwelling%20price%201.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%201%20.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%202.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%203.jpg" alt="">
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%204.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/property%20value%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%205.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/property%20value%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/property%20value%206.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/2/auction%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/2/auction%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/2/real%20price.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/2/real%20price.jpg" alt="">
 
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Is the dwelling price correction over? Matthew Hassan

Rising prospect that the RBA will cut before hiking: Shane Oliver

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The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 2.8% to 104.3 in November from 101.5 in October.
That was a surprisingly strong result. In particular, respondents are much more positive about their own finances. That is despite consistent reports around weakness in the housing markets in the major capitals and the sharp falls in the equity market through October.
Low interest rates and their prospect of being sustained for some time are clearly supporting confidence.
For example, the confidence of those respondents with a mortgage increased by 4.3%. However, on a more cautionary note, measures of spending intentions have been weaker.
Consumer views around housing were very interesting. Buyer sentiment improved sharply but price expectations fell to new lows.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a strong 11.8% surge to be up 16.7% on a year ago to the highest level since March 2015.
Consumers in NSW showed a particularly strong gain with a 26% jump taking the state index to a five year high and suggesting the decline in Sydney house prices is starting to generate some interest from buyers.
Because the NSW Index has been so low, this stunning improvement only restores the Index to just below its long term average.
The other state, Victoria, where prices have recently shown significant weakness, improved only modestly with “Time to Buy” up only 3.3%.
Consumer expectations for house prices posted another fall in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 2.3% to 99 – on par with the weakest read we have ever seen on this index, when it was first compiled back in May 2009.
The state detail continues to show particularly weak reads in NSW and Victoria, both hitting new lows in November with Victoria’s index down 25% over the last three months alone.
The house price corrections underway in Sydney and Melbourne now look to be firmly embedded in consumer expectations.
In this cycle, Sydney dwelling prices have already fallen by 8.7% while prices in Melbourne are down by 5.1%.
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New lending for housing is also contracting. New lending for “upgraders” (owner occupiers excluding First Home Buyers) has fallen by 13.2% over the last year (October 2017 to September 2018) but more significantly has fallen by 10.7% in the two months to September.
New lending to investors peaked in December 2016 and has fallen by 25.9% in the year to September 2018 and 4% over the last two months.
These developments have largely reflected stretched affordability (on the demand side) in the two cities and tighter lending policies from the four major banks (on the supply side).
Households now expect house prices to continue to fall. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations has fallen by 39% for NSW and 41.5% for Victoria over the last year. 
Both indexes moved from prints which indicated that optimists strongly outnumbered pessimists (134 for NSW and 144 for Victoria) to positions where pessimists outnumber optimists (82 for NSW and 84 for Victoria). 
Note that any read below 100 indicates a majority of pessimists.
Furthermore these current levels are the lowest we have registered since Westpac and the Melbourne Institute first started this question in the Consumer Sentiment survey in May 2009.
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Westpac also calculates measures of housing affordability. These relate to the proportion of income required to accumulate a deposit and service a loan which is 75% of the median house price. These measures of affordability can vary around assumptions related to the time required to accumulate the deposit and whether the 75% is a reasonable assumption.
Based on the estimates being used we assess that affordability in both NSW and Victoria is more stretched than we saw in the previous periods which preceded falls in house prices – 2008/09 and 2010/11.
Peak to trough in those previous periods were falls of 6.4% (Sydney) and 8.7% (Melbourne) in 2008/2009 and 3.4% (Sydney) and 8.2% (Melbourne) in 2010/2012.
The restoration of affordability in those previous periods came through falls in interest rates and house prices while income growth also contributed. Wages growth was running at around 4% in both periods. That compares with current wages growth of 2.3%.
In the 2008/09 period the RBA cut the cash rate by 425 basis points from 7.25% to 3%; in the 2011/12 period it cut rates.
by 175 basis points from 4.75% to 3.00%. The challenge with this particular cycle is that the RBA appears to be absolutely committed to the next move in rates being up.
So in those previous periods affordability and demand were restored through a combination of income growth; substantial rate cuts; and price adjustments. In this current period the responsibility for a restoration of affordability will fall mainly to price adjustments.
The Consumer Sentiment Report indicated that the “Time to Buy a Dwelling” Index had lifted significantly in the weak NSW market.
That might imply that despite continuing stretched affordability, prospective buyers may be considering re-entering the market. That does seem surprising given the downbeat price expectations and stretched affordability.
However, as discussed, in this cycle there is another complication.
We have a different environment from the perspective of credit supply. Banks have tightened credit conditions such that when demand for credit recovers (as may be implied by the “Time to Buy” index for NSW) it may not be as simply accommodated as was the case in those previous periods.
This will complicate the usual adjustment process. Markets stabilise when prospective buyers feel encouraged to re-enter the market. Affordability returning to equilibrium and price expectations turning positive are generally the triggers for markets to recover.
 The “Time to Buy” index for NSW is sending an encouraging early signal but if prospective buyers are unable to secure adequate funding to enter the market, the move to the new equilibrium may be more extended.
In summary it is apparent that this cycle is quite different to the two previous down cycles for dwelling prices. Affordability is more stretched and sources of adjustment are more restricted.
 Furthermore, credit conditions indicate that a recovery in affordability and demand may not be accommodated through credit supply in the same way we saw in previous cycles.
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</div>
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Mixed signals on housing but adjustment process seems likely to have further to run: Bill Evans

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The impact of Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel Project on dwelling prices will be positive for some but negative for others, according to the latest analysis by RiskWise Property Research.
The $6.7 billion project, under construction since January and due to open in 2022, is touted as being a 'game-changer' when it comes to the way people move around the congested city, which is projected to have a population explosion to five million by 2021 and eight million by 2050, according to demographer Bernard Salt.
While the tunnel’s construction will, according to Transurban, reduce peak travel time by up to 20 minutes, take about 28,000 vehicles off West Gate Bridge and 22,000 vehicles off Bolte Bridge daily, generate 6000 new jobs and remove more than 9000 trucks from local streets, not all its effects on the property market will be positive, says RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg.
“There are many positive aspects to the construction of the West Gate Tunnel especially as it is expected to provide a $11 billion boost to the Victorian economy,” Peleg said.
“Dwellings that are well located and in good proximity to transport hubs will have much greater access to the CDB and this means they are projected to have solid capital growth, at least for houses.” 
He said this was particularly the case for houses in Yarraville and Footscray, which already enjoyed strong demand and would deliver outstanding capital growth in the long term. 
“Overall house price growth in Greater Melbourne has decelerated to 2.2% in the past 12 months, however, the five-year capital growth in the city’s western suburbs was 69.1% and this area is projected to deliver a solid long-term capital growth,” he said. 
“What we are seeing is that the inner-city suburbs of Melbourne are following the same demand and capital growth patterns of Sydney's inner-west suburbs where proximity to the CBD, relative affordability (five years ago) and gentrification saw demand increase with very strong property capital growth of 92.7% over five years and solid capital growth predicted in the medium-to-long term.  
“The western suburbs of Melbourne are following the same pattern. Add to that major ‘transformation projects’, and the capital growth is projected to be very good in the long term.
“It is important to note though that the same cannot be said for units in Melbourne which suffer from significant oversupply.  Our research shows that areas with a high level of stock and an elevated number of approvals and units in the pipeline suffer from poor and often negative capital growth, and this significantly increases the settlement risk for units purchased off-the-plan, particularly in larger developments. 
“In Footscray there are 2280 units in the pipeline for the next 24 months, which equals an addition of 41.3% to the current stock.
“Oversupply of apartments in some cases leads to voluntarily lending restrictions by the major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio (LVR) mortgages for new units. These lending restrictions are in addition to broader lending restrictions that have been set by APRA to significantly reduce investor activity."
He said while unit oversupply was a concern, the new infrastructure would likely improve demand, and this could mitigate the risk to some extent.
Peleg said another consideration when it came to any negative consequences of the tunnel was that some dwelling prices could be impacted because they were too close to high-traffic areas which meant they could carry a higher level of risk due to poor demand, and this was the case for both houses and units.
“Major infrastructure can often result in negative outcomes for some properties in the sense that people are excited by it yet tend to forget that some properties will be negatively impacted,” he said.
“About 350 houses will sit above the tunnel, which will run at least 18m beneath the ground, and while the state government has promised compensation to those whose properties are damaged by underground boring, it is likely to reduce demand and prices for those affected.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How Melbourne's West Gate Tunnel will impact property prices

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<div class="x_WordSection1">EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div class="x_WordSection1"> </div>
<div class="x_WordSection1">Australian capital city dwelling prices fell for the sixth month in a row in April, with a fall of -0.3% in April which left prices down -0.3% from a year ago.</div>
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<div class="x_WordSection1">Weakness continues to be led by Sydney (-0.4%mom/-3.4%yoy) and Melbourne (-0.4%/+3.7%yoy) with most other cities seeing gains. </div>
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<div class="x_WordSection1">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/1/cooling.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div class="x_WordSection1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/1/cooling.jpg" alt=""></div>
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Last year’s APRA driven tightening in lending standards for interest only borrowers is clearly continuing to impact and along with poor affordability, rising supply, falling price growth expectations and the end of FOMO (fear of missing out) are pushing prices down in cities which have seen strong gains over the last few years, ie Sydney and Melbourne.
The latest round of tightening bank lending standards around borrower’s income and expenses will add to this. We expect prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall another 5% this year, another 5% next year and to still be falling in 2020.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/1/downside.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/1/downside.jpg" alt="">
However, having not had the same boom over the last five or six years other capital cities are likely to perform better. Perth and Darwin look to have bottomed, Adelaide, Brisbane and Canberra are likely to see moderate growth and the boom in Hobart (+1.2%mom/+12.7%yoy) is likely to continue for a while yet.
Similarly home prices in regional centres (+0.4%mom/+2.4%yoy) are likely to hold up better with continuing modest growth as generally speaking they haven’t had the same boom as Sydney and Melbourne and so offer much better value and much higher rental yields.
Despite the surge in supply capital city unit prices (+0.1%mom/+1.9%yoy) are continuing to hold up better than house prices. This may reflect the entrance of more first home buyers following last year’s stamp duty concessions for them in some states and a perception that a new unit closer to transport may offer better value than a stand alone house. I would still be cautious in areas with lots of cranes though!
Implications for interest rates
The continuing weakness in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne with more to go is consistent with our view that the RBA will leave rates on hold out to 2020. Home price weakness is now at levels where the RBA started cutting rates in 2008 and 2011.
 
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