Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Commsec

<html><body><div class="x_WordSection1">
The proportion of first home buyers in the home loan market rose to 18.1 percent, a six year high, in the month of October.
The increase, up 0.1 percent from 18 percent in September, was driven by owner occupiers, whose number of loans committed rose by 2.2 percent, the largest gain in 15 months.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/10/FTB1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/10/FTB1.jpg" alt="">
Loans in total however are down by 4.8 percent on the year, namely due to the investor drop off. Investor loans fell by 4.3 percent during the three months to October.
They were 18.5 percent lower compared with the same time last year.
“The three months to October were the worst for housing loans to investors in over 5 years,” MBA chief economist Shane Garrett said.
“August 2013 was the last time investor lending volumes were as low as they are now. Lending to housing investors has fallen by over 30% since the peak in early 2015," Garrett added. 
“The introduction of more stringent APRA regulations in early 2015 kicked off the decline in investor lending. It has been greatly exacerbated by the commencement of the Royal Commission’s work – lenders have become much more nervous about making financing available," he said. 
“The reduction in investor activity is not all down to lending policies. Many investors are reluctant about entering into markets where house prices are falling. In other places, rental price growth is soft and investors have sat out," Shane Garrett said. 
“While investors are exiting the market at the moment, the story for First Home Buyers is much more positive. At 18.1%, the FHB share of owner occupier housing loans is at its highest since late 2012. About 114,000 FHB home loans have been issued over the past 12 months - an increase of 14.9% on a year earlier," he said. 
New loans rose by 2.3 percent in October, the strongest growth rate since July 2017.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/10/FTB2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/10/FTB2.jpg" alt="">
CommSec's Ryan Felsman said first home buyers continue to be more active, attracted by more affordable home prices.
"And the average home loan size lifted a little, suggesting that some buyers are still gaining access to sizeable home loans, despite tighter lending standards by banks and a slowdown in approval processing times."
The average home loan across Australia rose from $383,900 in September to $386,300 in October, up by 2.2 per cent on the year.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

First home buyers reach six year high

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Construction work done fell by 2.8 per cent in the September quarter – only the second decline in the past two years. However, in the year to September, construction work done was at record highs in NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
Construction costs rose by 0.9 per cent in the September quarter with building costs up 1.2 per cent. On the year, construction costs were up 3.1 per cent (decade average +2.2 per cent) – down from the 9-year high of 3.5 per cent in the June quarter.
Engineering costs rose by 0.6 per cent in the September quarter. Over the year, engineering costs rose by 3.5 per cent (decade average +2.4 per cent). The data on construction work is important for builders, building material companies and developers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/28/CommSec%20Graph%201.JPG" alt="">
Construction work ebbs and flows from quarter to quarter. After rising by 4.4 per cent in the first half of 2017, construction work eased by 2.8 per cent in the September quarter. Still, overall the amount of work remains high.
In fact in trend terms, construction work is at 3-year highs and just down from the mining boom highs over the period 2012--2015.
While construction work in the mining states has softened, in NSW construction work done hit record highs in the September quarter, just short of $17 billion.
In fact, construction work over the past year was at record highs in NSW, with Victoria and South Australia also completing the most construction work for a 12-month period.
With so much work, construction costs are understandably rising at a reasonable clip. For the past 18 months, construction costs have been rising at an annual rate greater than 3 per cent.
With more talk that skilled workers are hard to find, construction sector inflation will be watched carefully in coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/28/CommSec%20Graph%202.JPG" alt="">
Construction work done fell by 2.8 per cent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the September quarter – only the second decline in the past two years. Work done is down by 16.9 per cent on a year ago.
Public sector construction work fell by 1.0 per cent in the quarter and private sector activity fell by 3.4 per cent.
Construction work fell in five of the states and territories in the September quarter.
Leading the falls was Northern Territory (down 33.6 per cent); followed by South Australia (down by 8.6 per cent); Queensland (down by 6.4 per cent); Western Australia (down by 3.6 per cent); and Victoria (down by 2.3 per cent).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/28/CommSec%20Graph%203.JPG" alt="">
Construction rose in the ACT (up by 13.3 per cent); Tasmania (up by 4.4 per cent); and NSW (up by 2.2 per cent – to record highs).
Engineering work fell by 4.5 per cent in the September quarter, and is down 34.4 per cent over the year.
Commercial (non-residential) building fell by 2.4 per cent in the September quarter but was still up by 2.3 per cent on the year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/28/CommSec%20Graph%204.JPG" alt="">
Residential building fell by 1.0 per cent in the September quarter but was up by 5.4 per cent over the year.
Alterations &amp; additions rose by 4.7 per cent in the quarter, while new residential work fell by 1.8 per cent.
Construction costs rose by 0.9 per cent in the September quarter, with building costs up 1.2 per cent. On the year, construction costs were up 3.1 per cent (decade average +2.2 per cent), down from 3.5 per cent in the June quarter and 3.0 per cent in the March quarter.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/28/CommSec%20Graph%205.JPG" alt="">
Building inflation was 2.8 per cent and engineering inflation was 3.5 per cent.
CommSec expects official interest rates to remain stable until later in 2019. But cost pressures in the construction sector and upward pressure on wages need to be watched closely.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
</body></html>

cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Construction is at record highs in three states: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
<div class="x_WordSection1">
EXPERT OBSERVER
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.7 per cent to 118.6 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses.
</div>
<div class="x_WordSection2">
<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
Aussie consumers are resilient. Despite sharemarket gyrations and the inconvenient interruptions provided by global and domestic politics, confidence levels of Aussie consumers are above “normal”. The strong job market and falling petrol prices and clear positives for consumers together with the ongoing deals provided by global and domestic retailers.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/27/confidence.jpg" alt="">
Aussie consumers also tend to like a firmer Aussie dollar as it is considered favourable for maintaining spending power when shopping or travelling overseas. So an Aussie near US72-73 cents, rather than US70-71 cents a few weeks ago, serves to support confidence levels.
Retailers will be pleased by the trading environment. The job market is strong, wages are ticking higher and petrol prices are well down from recent highs.
<h1>What do the figures show? </h1>
Consumer Sentiment
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.7 per cent to 118.6 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990. 
Three of the five components of the index decreased last week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +6.7 to +6.2; 
- The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +25.2 to +21.4;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/27/sentiment.jpg" alt="">
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +9.9 to 15.4; 
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +16.6 to +15.7;
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +30.7 to +34.1.
- The measure of inflation expectations fell from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
- The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
- Consumers remain positive but they aren’t getting carried away. One of the key areas to watch is the collective attitude of consumers on their future finances. There has been a softening in views in recent weeks, suggesting some conservatism on current and future spending.
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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No signs of flagging in consumer confidence: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Consumer sentiment: The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.7 per cent to 117.8 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
Reserve Bank Board minutes: The minutes from the November 6 Board meeting were issued. While no rate change is expected any time soon, the Board continues to believe that the next move in rates will be up. Board members see risks of a bigger decline in the jobless rate and thus risks of higher wage growth.
The IMF 2018 Article IV Consultation Mission: The IMF said that “The [Australian] economy’s strong growth momentum is expected to continue in the near term. Notwithstanding recent strong growth, it is not yet the time to withdraw macroeconomic policy support given remaining slack.”
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings.
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<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
The Reserve Bank Board undertook its annual review of forecasts and concluded that forecast errors had been lower than ‘average’ or normal. Members of the Board also ran different scenarios to assess the impact on interest rates and also ran scenarios to judge the impact on Australia of higher US wage and price growth. Overall, it seems clear from the text that the Reserve Bank Board is comfortable with how things have played out over 2018 and is comfortable with current interest rate settings.
While the Reserve Bank continues to watch the US-China trade dispute, it remains upbeat, believing that growth of Australia’s trading partners will “remain above potential in 2019.” However the Board did note “the latest forecasts had incorporated a small negative effect from recent tariff changes on growth in a number of economies, including the United States and some east-Asian economies.”
There are definitely no signs of angst expressed by Reserve Bank Board members.
Consumer confidence fluctuates from week-to-week. Over the year to November 18, the ANZ-Roy Morgan sentiment gauge has averaged 118.5 points, broadly in-line with current levels of confidence. 
The sharpest falls in weekly sentiment have occurred around political events this year – the Liberal Party leadership crisis (“Libspill”) and Wentworth by-election, respectively in August and October. Of course, households will be navigating three elections in the coming months with Victoria, New South Wales and Federal polls ahead. Business and consumer confidence will likely be choppy in this environment. 
That said, sentiment is holding-up remarkably well, given that home prices have been falling in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth for over a year. And the Aussie sharemarket touched 20-month lows today, down by almost 7 per cent (ASX200 index) so far this year. Importantly, consumer views about the state of their finances and economic conditions are still all above their long-run average levels.
<h1>What do the figures show? </h1>
Consumer Sentiment
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.7 per cent to 117.8 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990. 
Three of the five components of the index decreased last week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +15.2 to +6.7; 
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +27.5 to +25.2;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +11.7 to +9.9; 
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +15.1 to +16.6;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +29.5 +30.7.
The measure of inflation expectations fell from 4.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
Reserve Bank November Board minutes:
On the economy: “Members noted that the recent run of economic data suggested that growth in the Australian economy had been higher over the year to the June quarter than earlier forecast, and above estimates of potential growth. Labour market conditions had remained strong and other available indicators pointed to further solid GDP growth in the September quarter. At the same time, inflation in the September quarter had slowed as expected, partly as a result of a large policy-induced decline in childcare prices.”
On the job market: “Conditions in the labour market had also been stronger than expected and forward-looking indicators of labour demand continued to point to ongoing strength in the near term. As a result, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been revised lower and the forecast for wages growth had been revised slightly higher.”
Good economic forecasts: “As part of a regular annual review process, members considered how the domestic economy had evolved over the preceding year relative to the Bank's forecasts of a year earlier. Members noted that the magnitude of forecast errors for key variables, including GDP growth, the unemployment rate and inflation, had been smaller than the historical averages.”
Global risks: “Members noted that the direction of international trade policy continued to be a significant risk to the global outlook.”
Money market conditions: “Information from liaison suggested that there had been little change in domestic money market conditions in recent months. The modest increase in funding costs earlier in the year had been passed on by most lenders to existing borrowers with variable-rate business and housing loans.”
Residential developments: …”there had been reports that bank financing of large development projects had become more difficult, particularly in areas where there had already been substantial development.”
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
Consumers remain positive. But the real test will come over the next month for Aussie retailers in the lead up to Christmas. And department stores will again be under pressure this week with the Black Friday and Cyber Monday mega online sales kicking-off. <a href="http://finder.com.au/" target="_blank">Finder.com.au</a> estimates that Aussie consumers will splurge around $320 million on goods.
The Reserve Bank reiterated in its Board meeting minutes today that the outlook for consumption remained uncertain given slow income growth, high mortgage debt levels and cooling housing markets. But wages growth appears to have bottomed, interest rates remain at very supportive record-low levels and utilities bills and petrol prices have fallen from their most recent peaks. And of course 180,200 full time jobs (out of a total of 308,100 job gains) have been created over the past ten months. 
With elections ahead, the IMF has weighed in with its views on its wish-list for Aussie policy reforms. The Fund suggested that “broad tax reform to support productivity and inclusive growth would be desirable…. These reforms should be combined with reforms to raise the GST revenue, lower the company tax rate more broadly, and reduce tax concessions.” On research and development reforms, the IMF said that “The recommendations of the science agenda laid out in Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation are constructive and should be implemented.” And on housing, “Housing supply reforms will be critical to restoring housing affordability.”
CommSec expects no change in the official cash rate until later in 2019. However, just like Reserve Bank Board members, we are closely watching trends in the job market and wages. The Reserve Bank is uncertain about the extent of spare capacity in the job market and therefore this has implications for wage growth.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
 
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Reserve Bank upbeat on Aussie economic growth: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Employment rose by 32,800 in October after a revised 7,800 increase in jobs in September (previously reported as a 5,600 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 42,300, but part-time jobs fell by 9,500. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 20,000.
Hours worked rose by 0.3% in October and lifted by 2.1% over the year. Trend hours worked rose by 0.2% in October and lifted by 2.0% over the year.
The unemployment rate was steady at a 6-year low 5.0% in October. In trend terms the jobless rate fell from 5.2% to 5.1%. In original terms the jobless rate in October was 4.77% – the lowest rate in almost eight years (December 2010).
Unemployment across states in October: NSW 4.4% (September 4.4%); Victoria 4.5% (4.6%); Queensland 6.3% (6.0%); South Australia 5.4% (5.5%); Western Australia 5.7% (6.0%); Tasmania 5.3% (5.7%). In trend terms, Northern Territory 4.6% (4.3%); ACT 3.7% (3.7%).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.
What does it all mean?
More people looking for jobs, more people finding jobs, more hours worked and a jobless rate at six-year lows. What’s not to like?
The employment market clearly remains firm. And that is clearly great news for consumer-focussed businesses. It is not just the fact that jobs are growing and wage growth is lifting, it is also the fact that people are more secure in their jobs. Add in the fact that consumer confidence is above longer-term averages. All these factors will support household spending. It is worth noting that household spending is growing at the fastest pace in six years.  
Leading indicators such as job advertisements, skilled job vacancies and the NAB business survey point to further job gains and further tightening of the job market. Wage growth is lifting, but price inflation is still contained. But the process of “normalisation” of wages, prices and interest rates remains gradual, suggesting that interest rate settings will remain unchanged over at least the next three to six months. 
At present however, the Reserve Bank will be happy to leave rate settings unchanged. But the extent of the tightening of the job market makes it hard to believe that the RBA will stay on the interest rate sidelines until 2021 as some analysts currently expect.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
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Tightening job market makes it unlikely RBA will hold until 2021: CommSec's Craig James

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The number of loans (commitments) by home owners (owner-occupiers) fell by 2.1 per cent in August. Loans are down by 10.2 per cent on the year – the biggest fall in 7½ years.
Owner-occupier loans fell by 2.7 per cent – the biggest fall in 2½ years - and investment loans fell by 1.1 per cent, a sixth successive decline. 
The average credit card balance fell by $5.90 to $3,217.82 in August, down from $3,223.73 in July and $3,278.35 in June. 
China’s international trade surplus rose by US$3.8 billion to US$31.69 billion (forecast: US$19.40 billion) in September. Over the year to September, exports rose by 14.5 per cent (forecast: +8.9 per cent) and imports increased by 14.3 per cent (forecast: +15.0 per cent). China’s imports from Australia rose by 2.9 per cent to US$8.8 billion.
Credit card data is important for the retail and financial sectors. The home lending figures have implications for builders, housing-reliant businesses, finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. 
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What does it all mean?
In its semi-annual update on the health of the Australian economy, the Reserve Bank said that a slowdown in Australia’s housing market is a “positive development for financial stability”. So policymakers will be pleased with developments so far, with home prices ‘normalising’ in Sydney and Melbourne and demand for loans from indebted home owners falling to 7½-year lows.
Overall, tighter lending conditions, increasing mortgage rates and falling home prices are impacting housing demand, inventory levels and home building. And loans for the construction of new homes plunged in August, confirming the recent declines in building approvals. But pockets of strength remain. Annual home prices are still up in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide. In fact, home lending in Canberra increased during August.
While credit conditions have tightened, the Reserve Bank has refuted suggestions of a ‘credit crunch’ noting “only the risky borrowers have actually been constrained by the tightening in lending standards, as most borrowers take out loans well below the maximum that are offered by lenders”. And the average home loan size across Australia - at $395,800 - is just below record highs of $400,100 in May, implying that Aussies are still taking out significant loans. But househoulds appear more cautious about credit card debt with balances falling for successive months. 
What do the figures show?
Housing finance – number
The number of loans (commitments) by home owners (owner-occupiers) fell by 2.1 per cent in August. Loans are down by 10.2 per cent on the year – the biggest fall in 7½ years (November 2010). 
Excluding refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans fell by 2.9 per cent – the largest fall in eight months.
Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes fell by 6.2 per cent – the biggest fall in six months.
Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings rose by 0.3 per cent, the first increase in six months.
Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) fell by 2.5 per cent – the largest fall in eight months.
The number of refinancing transactions fell by 0.6 per cent.
Changes in home loans across the country: NSW (down 1.0 per cent); Victoria (down 3.0 per cent); Queensland (down 4.8 per cent); South Australia (up 1.9 per cent); Western Australia (down 0.3 per cent); Tasmania (down 2.2 per cent); Northern Territory (down 10.6 per cent); ACT (up 2.7 per cent).
Housing finance – value
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) fell by 2.1 per cent in August.
Owner-occupier loans fell by 2.7 per cent – the biggest fall in 2½ years - and investment loans fell by 1.1 per cent, a sixth successive decline. Over the year to August, owner-occupier loans declined by 3.9 per cent - the steepest decline in 21 months – while investor loans have declined by 20.5 per cent, the largest decline in over two years. 
The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes fell by 7.9 per cent in August to $2.82 billion to be down 11.8 per cent on the year – the largest annual decline in six years. 
Housing finance – other statistics
The value of cancelled loans totalled $1.408 billion in August, up from $1.365 billion a year earlier.
Commitments actually advanced (loans made) totalled $20.6 billion, up by 1.0 per cent on a year earlier.
The proportion of first-time buyers in the home loan market eased from 18.0 per cent in July to 17.8 per cent in August (decade-average 17.8 per cent) – just below six-year highs. 
The proportion of fixed rate loans rose from 11.8 per cent in July to 12.3 per cent in August.
And the average home loan across Australia fell from $396,100 in July to $395,800 in August to be up 7.1 per cent on the year.
Credit &amp; debit card lending:
The average credit card balance fell by $5.90 to $3,217.82 in August, down from $3,223.73 in July and $3,278.35 in June.
Of credit cards attracting interest charges, the average outstanding balance fell by $25.96 in August to $2,008.62.
The average credit card limit rose by $14.38 to $9,496.10 in August.
Usage of credit card limits stood at 34.0 per cent in July.
The number of credit card accounts stood at 16.013 million in August.
The number of debit card accounts stood at 37.262 million in August.
The number of ATM transactions in August was down by 1.2 per cent over the year. Transactions have been consistently falling in annual terms for over six years.
The number of debit card purchases in August were 15.2 per cent higher than a year ago with the value up by 11.5 per cent.
In August 15.2 transactions per account were made on credit cards (on average) with 15.2 transactions per account also made on debit cards.
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
The Reserve Bank releases data on credit and debit card transactions each month. The credit card figures are useful in highlighting consumer borrowing and spending trends.
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
The rebalancing in the housing market continues. Home prices are rising in some cities and towns, but falling in others. Housing credit growth continues to slow as demand for finance by both both investors and owner-occupiers’ declines. Lending standards are being tightened amid firmer regulatory oversight.
And the major banks have begun lifting mortgage rates, following a sustained increase in funding costs as rising official interest rates overseas increase the cost of borrowing in global financial markets.
The Reserve Bank continues to closely monitor the Aussie housing market and the debt levels of households. We expect a continued orderly slowdown with a soft landing still expected in Sydney and Melbourne. But there are risks that a sharper-than-anticipated downturn could adversely impact home borrowers’ equity, weighing on household confidence and spending.
CommSec doesn’t expect a change in interest rates until at least November 2019.
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Ryan Felsman is a Senior Economist for CommSec
 
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Home lending approvals hit seven year low: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Engineering construction work done rose by 2.2 per cent in the June quarter, down by 5.2 per cent from a year ago. A month ago, it was estimated that engineering construction was up by 0.4 per cent in the quarter, but down 7.2 per cent over the year. 
Infrastructure boom: Engineering work done for the public sector rose by 2.7 per cent in the June quarter. Over the year to June, a record $37.4 billion of work was done for the public sector. 
Work yet to be done: Excluding resources, engineering work yet to be done stands at $43.1 billion, below record highs. But outstanding road and railway work were both just below record highs. And electricity generation, transmission and distribution work was at five-year highs. The data on engineering construction work is important for builders, building material companies, professional services, developers, government businesses and other dependent sectors and industries.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/26/CommSec%201.JPG" alt="">
What does it all mean? 
The infrastructure boom continues on Australia’s eastern seaboard. Strong population growth and government spending are supporting a gargantuan pipeline of building activity in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. 
In fact, construction work done in Victoria is at record highs, the highest in New South Wales in five years and at the strongest level since December 2015 in Queensland. While activity is largely concentrated on public transportrelated rail, road and airport projects, work done on much-needed electricity generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure is at five-year highs. 
And it appears that the surge in construction activity and public transport-related infrastructure spending are generating price pressures. Over the year to June, construction costs were up 3.3 per cent - just below nine-year highs. And engineering costs rose by 4.2 per cent - a seven-year high. 
Quantity surveyor WT Partnership’s recently released Australian Construction Market Conditions report says that infrastructure tender price growth will increase by up to seven per cent next year. Big-ticket projects, such as Badgerys Creek Airport in Western Sydney and the Melbourne Metro Rail Tunnel, will boost demand for building materials, plant, equipment and scarce labour – especially engineers, project managers and construction trades.
Wage pressures are building in the construction sector.
In fact, skilled vacancies for construction managers are around the highest level in seven years.
What do the figures show? 
Engineering construction work done rose by 2.2 per cent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the June quarter – the fifth gain in six quarters. But work done is down 5.2 per cent on a year ago. Previously, engineering work was reported as rising by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter to be down 7.2 per cent over the year. 
Value of work completed for the public sector rose by 2.7 per cent in the quarter while private sector activity rose by 1.8 per cent. 
Over the year to June a record $37.4 billion of infrastructure work was completed (engineering work for the public sector.)
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/26/CommSec%203.JPG" alt="">
 
Construction work rose in four of the states and territories in the June quarter: NSW (up 3.3 per cent); Victoria (down 4.7 per cent); Queensland (up 3.4 per cent); South Australia (up 9.6 per cent); Western Australia (up 2.7 per cent); Tasmania (down 1.0 per cent); Northern Territory (down 16.2 per cent); ACT (down 16.5 per cent). 
Work yet to be done: There was $64.4 billion of engineering work yet to be done as at June 2018, up from $59.8 billion in the previous quarter. Excluding the resource sector (coal, oil, pipelines etc.) work to be done stands at $43.1 billion, below the record high of $45.3 billion in March 2012. 
As at June 2018, $18.3 billion of work was to be completed on roads and highways and $11.7 billion on railways. And work to be completed on electricity generation, transmission and distribution was the highest in five years at $6.8 billion. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/26/CommSec%202.JPG" alt="">
In original terms, engineering work commenced in the June quarter was $29.0 billion, down by 2.0 per cent in the quarter. Almost $90.1 billion of engineering work was started in the past year. What is the importance of the economic data? 
The Bureau of Statistics releases quarterly estimates of Engineering construction activity. The estimates include value of engineering construction work done, commenced and yet to be done, classified by state or territory, commodity (roads, bridges, pipelines etc.), sector (public/private) undertaking the work, and sector for whom the work is being done. The data is a comprehensive assessment of the infrastructure pipeline. What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
According to surveyor Rider, Levett and Bucknall, a record 735 cranes were hoisted above our major cities in the September quarter, reflecting the continuing strength of the construction sector within the Australian economy. Around 321 cranes are located in Sydney, followed by 192 in Melbourne and 112 in South-East Queensland.
Construction companies such as Lend Lease, Thiess, Brookfield Multiplex, BGC and Leighton have cranes and advertising scattered all over our major cities. They have plenty of work and are hoovering up highly skilled engineers, project managers and construction workers. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/26/CommSec%204.JPG" alt="">
Demand for labour and materials in infrastructure and construction-related sectors will increase over the coming year, pressuring contractors and sub-contractors. 
According to WT Partnership, tender prices will grow by 3- 7 per cent in New South Wales, Victoria, South-East Queensland, Tasmania, South Australia and the ACT in 2018-2019. 
Major projects under construction include the Sydney and Melbourne Metros. And projects that will enter the pipeline include the East Coast Inland rail line, Melbourne Airport rail, Brisbane Cross River Rail and Badgerys Creek rail. 
CommSec expects official interest rates to remain stable until late 2019.
Ryan Felsman is a Senior Economist for CommSec
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Record annual infrastructure building: Ryan Felsman

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Bureau of Statistics reports that Australian home prices fell by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter to stand 0.6 per cent lower over the year – the first annual decline since June quarter 2012.
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.5 per cent to 118.0 – the highest level in five weeks. The index is comfortably above the average of 114.1 held since 2014, and above the longer term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
The minutes from the September 4 Board meeting were issued. The Board’s neutral policy stance remains intact with a period of record low interest rate stability ahead for the foreseeable future. The Reserve Bank Board noted that “since progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual, they [members] also agreed there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy…. members continued to agree that the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease.” 
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings.
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What does it all mean?
The great re-balancing of the housing market continues. Although the latest data has been superseded by more timely figures, the ABS analysis shows that home prices rose in four capital cities and fell in the other four in the June quarter. The number of homes being built – especially in places like Sydney and Melbourne – are slowly catching up with population growth. And as a result home price growth is becoming more sustainable.
Arguably the number of homes being built still has some way to go to match demand. In the past quarter just fewer than 41,000 homes were added to the housing stock, short of the 5-year average of over 43,000.
Consumer confidence has been choppy in recent months, but optimists continue to defy the pessimists with the ANZ-Morgan survey rebounding to its best level in five weeks. Job security remains a key support for consumer sentiment. A solid August employment report was released last Thursday with all measures of unemployment (including underemployment and underutilisation) falling to their lowest levels in 4-6 years. Unemployment in the boom-state of Victoria is at seven-year lows. Unemployment in Greater Sydney is near decade lows. 
And all the underlying sub-indexes of the consumer confidence survey are higher than their long-term averages except the ‘time to buy a major household item’ index, which is marginally below its long-term average.
There was little new information contained in the Reserve Bank Board’s September 4 monetary policy minutes. Members remained upbeat in their assessment of the Aussie economy.
According to the commentary, economic growth is likely to remain “above potential” through the forecast period. Inflation is “likely to increase over time.” But “significant tensions around global trade policy the outlook” and “low wages growth” presented risks to its outlook. While reiterating the Board’s preference to increase the official cash rate when it next moves interest rates, “progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual, they also agreed there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.”
What do the figures show?
Residential property prices
The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its Residential Property Price indexes for the June quarter.
“The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2018. The index fell 0.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2018.
The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Sydney (-1.2 per cent), Melbourne (-0.8 per cent), Perth (-0.1 per cent) and Darwin (-0.9 per cent), and rose in Brisbane (+0.7 per cent), Hobart (+3.0 per cent), Adelaide (+0.3 per cent) and Canberra (+0.6 per cent).
Annually, residential property prices fell in Darwin (-6.1 per cent), Sydney (-3.9 per cent) and Perth (-0.9 per cent), and rose in Hobart (+15.5 per cent), Canberra (+3.0 per cent), Melbourne (+2.3 per cent), Adelaide (+2.1 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.7 per cent). 
The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,926,538.0 million at the end of the June quarter 2018, falling $13,321.1 million over the quarter.
The mean price of residential dwellings fell $4,100 to $686,200 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,800 to 10,093,700 in the June quarter 2018.”
CommSec estimates that the number of people per home fell from 2.48 in the March quarter to 2.47 in the June quarter.
The number of homes in NSW rose by just 7,800 in the June quarter – the smallest lift in over four years.
Consumer Sentiment
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.5 per cent to 118.0 – the highest level in five weeks. The index is comfortably above the average of 114.1 held since 2014 and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
Three of the five components of the index increased last week:
Ø  The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from 104.0 to 107.8; 
Ø  The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from 126.2 to 125.7;
Ø  Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from 109.3 to 108.0; 
Ø  Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from 111.5 to 115.2;
Ø  The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from 130.1 to 133.1.
The measure of inflation expectations rose from 4.1 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
Reserve Bank September Board minutes:
“Based on the forecasts and associated risks, members assessed that the current stance of monetary policy would continue to support economic growth and allow for further progress to be made in reducing the unemployment rate and returning inflation towards the midpoint of the target. In these circumstances, members continued to agree that the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase than a decrease. However, since progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual, they also agreed there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.” 
On the economic growth outlook: “…recent data had not changed members' assessment that GDP growth was likely to remain above potential throughout the forecast period and inflation was likely to increase over time. However, members recognised that there continued to be risks associated with uncertainties from abroad and low wages growth.”
On the labour market: “Forward-looking indicators of labour demand, including vacancy rates and survey measures of employment intentions, continued to point to above-average growth in employment in the near term. The unemployment rate was expected to decline gradually towards 5 per cent. Wages growth was expected to increase gradually as spare capacity in the labour market is absorbed.” 
On wages growth: “Information from liaison had continued to point to a modest increase in private sector wages growth in coming quarters. Members noted that the effects of the recent increase in the minimum wage would boost wage outcomes in the September quarter.”
On household consumption: “Growth in household consumption was expected to have recovered in the June quarter; retail sales volumes pointed to a solid increase in consumption of goods. Retail sales data for July had been relatively weak, although online sales had continued to grow rapidly.”
On the housing market: “Housing prices had been falling gradually in Sydney and Melbourne, and in recent months price declines had become more widespread across different suburbs and price segments. Although housing prices in Perth had also declined over recent months, prices in other capital cities had been little changed. Rent inflation had remained low.”
On mortgage rate increases: “Once they take effect, these increases would imply a small rise in the average outstanding variable housing loan rate, unwinding about half of the decline observed in the average housing loan rate over the preceding year. Members noted that there was evidence that banks had continued to compete strongly for new borrowers for housing, including by increasing discounts on published lending rates. For owner-occupiers, housing credit had been growing relatively strongly at around 7½ per cent annualised over the preceding six months, whereas growth in lending to investors had slowed noticeably.”
On business investment: “Non-mining investment intentions for 2018/19 reported in the ABS Capital Expenditure survey had been revised higher, although firms still expected capital expenditure to be lower than in 2017/18. Mining investment was still expected to trough in late 2018 or early 2019, as the remaining large liquefied natural gas projects are completed. Business conditions more generally had remained well above average, according to a range of surveys, despite easing slightly since earlier in 2018.”
On the drought: “Drought conditions in some parts of Australia were expected to result in lower overall rural production and exports in the period following the June quarter, although members noted that a record crop was expected in Western Australia.” 
On the Aussie dollar: “…the modest depreciation of the Australian dollar was helpful for domestic economic growth.”
On trade: “…members observed that there were still significant tensions around global trade policy and that this represented a material risk to the outlook.”
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
The housing market continues to rebalance. A soft landing is anticipated, but the impact of falling home prices and rising mortgage rates on household budgets will need to be closely monitored. Housing credit growth for owner-occupiers remains firm and first home buyers are taking advantage of improving home affordability.
Aussie consumers are a resilient bunch. Negative news-flow about politics and global trade can influence confidence surveys in the short-term, but its no coincidence the sentiment has been hovering around four-year highs this year, given the record job gains over the year to January. 
The latest employment report provides further evidence that spare capacity is slowly being reduced in the labour market. But the transmission to higher wages and inflationary pressures will only be gradual, despite emerging skills shortages.
The Reserve Bank is under no pressure to lift interest rates – its preferred next move. Fiscal policy is doing some of the heavy lifting in the form of government spending on infrastructure. Non-mining business conditions are also near record highs - the drag from mining investment has almost troughed. The Aussie dollar has weakened, trade surpluses are being posted and economic growth is above its long-term potential, boosted by household consumption.
The Board wont wait to see the ‘whites of the eyes’ of higher inflation rates before lifting the cash rate. But those pressures are still some way off. Therefore, CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged until at least November 2019.
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<div>Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec</div>
 
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First annual decline in house prices since 2012: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Economic trends
Do we have a Goldilocks Aussie dollar – not too hot, not too cold, just about right? According to CommSec iPhone index Australia is now the 4th cheapest country in the world (of 51 nations) to buy an Apple iPhone 8 in US dollar terms. 
This time last year, Australia was the 25th cheapest country in the world to buy an Apple iPhone 7 (Aussie dollar US80 cents). In 2016 Australia was the 17th cheapest to buy the iPhone 6 Plus (Aussie dollar US76 cents) and in 2015 Australia was fourth cheapest to buy an IPhone (Aussie dollar US69 cents).
An iPhone 8, 4.7 inch, 64GB is $1,079 in Australia (US$775.56 at exchange rates sourced on September 5). In the US, the same phone is US$699 (US$765.41 in Los Angeles with state and local taxes) – around 1.3 per cent cheaper. (The Aussie dollar has fallen further since all the data was compiled on September 5.)
Apple is expected to release a new model of the iPhone on Wednesday and Australian consumers will be closely watching the local pricing of the must-have device.
Turning to the CommSec iPad index. Australia is now the 3rd cheapest country in the world (of 51 nations) to buy an Apple iPad 2018; 9.7-inch tablet device, 32GB in US dollar terms This time last year, Australia was the 17th cheapest country to buy an Apple iPad Pro 10.5-inch tablet device in US dollar terms. (2016: 20th cheapest; 2015: 2nd second cheapest).
In January 2007 CommSec launched its iPod index as a modern way of looking at purchasing power theory. That is, the theory that the same good should be sold for the same price across the globe once taking into account exchange rates. On current iPad &amp; iPhone pricing the Aussie dollar could be regarded as, at best, as a little “expensive”. Last year we thought the currency was slightly “over-valued”.
On current pricing, Aussie tourists would only save $11 by buying an iPad in the cheapest country (Hong Kong) rather than in Australia. When the currency falls Aussie consumers may be better off buying goods locally, and that’s great news for Aussie retailers.
 
<h1>What do the index results show?</h1>
In January 2007, CommSec launched its iPod index. It was designed as a new way of looking at purchasing power theory. That is, the theory that the same good should be sold for the same price across the globe once taking into account exchange rates. The Economist magazine has for some time maintained its Big Mac index for the same purpose – that is, tracking the concept of purchasing power parity.
CommSec has since shifted the focus to Apple iPhone and Apple iPad prices.
Last year the Aussie dollar was near US80.5 cents and today it is closer to US72 cents. And that change has led to Australia improving on the leader-board of US dollar pricing of the latest iPhone – getting cheaper or more globally competitive than a few years ago.
On an iPhone 8, 64GB, Australia is now the 4th cheapest place to buy the smartphone in the world. A year ago Australia was the 25th cheapest place to buy the then current iPhone 7 model. On iPad pricing, Australia has lifted from 17th to 3rd cheapest over the past year. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/11/iphone-stats.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/11/iphone-stats.jpg" alt="">
Simply, Australia is back amongst the cheapest places across the globe to buy popular technology when measured on the same basis as other countries – that is, in US dollar terms.
Last year we surmised that the Aussie dollar had become more expensive. The Reserve Bank also noted Aussie dollar strength, saying “The higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to the subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment.”
Today the Reserve Bank is relaxed about the Aussie dollar: “The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis, but it has depreciated against the US dollar along with most other currencies.”
<h1>Global highs and lows</h1>
It is important to note that sales tax rates provide complications in undertaking comparisons across countries. In Australia the GST is included in the Apple Store price. The sales tax environments aren’t as clear on the pricing of iPads and iPhones in many other countries. In Canada and the US there are various prices for the iPads and iPhones depending on the different state or province sales taxes that apply. We have undertaken comparisons with Ontario in Canada and Los Angeles in the US. Apple Japan also quotes prices ex-tax.
The CommSec iPad and iPhone indexes shows that Latin American, northern and Eastern European countries still pay the most for their tech devices. Australian customers still remain in front of European customers.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/11/ipad-stats.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/11/ipad-stats.jpg" alt="">
On current exchange rates the US (Los Angeles), Hong Kong and Japan are cheapest to buy the iPhone 8 on current exchange rates. Hong Kong and Malaysia are the cheapest places to buy an iPad. On both iPads and iPhones, customers in Brazil, Argentina, Serbia and Croatia pay the highest prices in the world to buy the latest technology.
<h1>Purchasing power parity: In theory only</h1>
While the concept of purchasing power parity is good in theory, unfortunately there are complications in practice. As noted above, one of the biggest complications is tax with differing consumption tax rates applied across the globe.
The other complication with purchasing power parity is freight or shipping cost. If the local price was relatively high and shipping costs weren't overly exorbitant then a buyer may decide to source goods from another country. If enough buyers were to source goods abroad, presumably it would force local retailers to re-assess pricing.
On current exchange rates Australian consumers probably wouldn’t be tempted to buy their iPads and iPhones from abroad while on personal or business trips. For instance an Aussie traveller may just save just $16 to buy an iPhone in Los Angeles or save $11 to buy an iPad in Hong Kong.
<h1>Australia: Pricing reflects the weaker currency</h1>
Since we began the CommSec iPod index in January 2007, Australia was always one of the cheapest places in the globe to buy the iPod nano media player. In fact Australia was the cheapest place to buy the popular media player in both October 2008 and December 2009.
We have now shifted to iPads and iPhones for comparison. Australia is now back amongst the cheapest places to buy the must-have tech devices courtesy of Apple pricing and a weaker currency.
Changes in Australia's relative position over time always reflect fluctuations in the exchange rate as well as local pricing by Apple. The important point is that local retailers and suppliers face the same dilemma as Apple - when currencies change, how quickly should local pricing change? And if you do change selling prices, do you fully adjust for the currency impact? There is a range of influences that play a part in the decision, including a judgement about whether the currency change is likely to be permanent or temporary.
The Aussie dollar has fallen by around 11 per cent against the US dollar over the past year. So Australia is back in the pack of countries having the lowest-priced Apple products in US dollar terms. Perhaps that means little change in pricing when Apple updates its latest tech devices on Wednesday (Thursday Sydney time)?
<h1>Big Mac index, and exchange rates</h1>
CommSec has maintained its iPod index since January 2007 as a way at looking at issues such as the impact of currency changes on consumer spending, globalisation and retailer margins. With relative importance switching from iPods to iPads, CommSec started compiling iPad indexes, and now iPhone indexes.
The CommSec iPod, iPad and iPhone indexes are designed as modern day variants of the long-running Big Mac index compiled by The Economist magazine. Both the iPad and Big Mac indexes work on the theory of ‘same good, same price’. That is, the same good should trade at broadly the same price across the globe if exchange rates are adjusting properly.
The Economist uses its Big Mac index to track the economic theory of purchasing power parity (PPP). That is, the theory that the same good should trade for the same price across the globe once adjusted for exchange rates. The index works by dividing the local price of a Big Mac by the US price of a Big Mac. This gives the PPP exchange rate. If the actual exchange rate is above the PPP rate, the theory says that the currency is over-valued, and may need to fall to bring the goods in both countries in line.
The problem is that Big Macs aren’t exchanged across country borders. But the assumption is that Big Macs are a proxy for other goods that certainly may be traded. The other problem is that the Big Mac index assumes a US base, and thus assumes that US goods are appropriately priced.
The last Big Mac index analysis (July 2018) concluded that the Aussie dollar was “under-valued” by 18.1 per cent against the US dollar (strangely most currencies were regarded as “under-valued”). In other words the Aussie dollar should have been closer to US90.9c rather than US74.6c at that time. Today the Aussie dollar stands nearer to US72 cents.
<h1>CommSec iPad and CommSec iPod indexes and exchange rates</h1>
Like the Big Mac index, the CommSec iPad and CommSec iPod indexes assume that the same good should sell for the same price across the globe once exchange rates are taken into account. But the difference with the Big Mac index is that Apple tech devices can indeed be exchanged across the globe. If they are particularly cheap in one country it could cause tourists to buy their tech devices when on holiday, prompt people to buy them online in other countries, or prompt some companies to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
But Apple devices are manufactured in one place (China – mainland China as well as Taiwan) and sold across the globe. So it won’t just be the cost of the good that could result in price differences across the globe but also local taxes, freight and different mark-ups.
But if you assume that the Aussie price for an iPhone should be the same price as that paid by a resident in Los Angeles, then the exchange rate should be closer to US71 cents. Again, if you assume that the Aussie price for an iPhone should be the same as China where the goods are manufactured, then the Aussie dollar is about 11 per cent under-valued.
The Economist Big Mac index suggested that the Aussie dollar was “under-valued”. But the CommSec iPad and iPhone indexes suggest the Aussie dollar closer to the correct valuation at current exchange rates.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
According to the latest CommSec iPad index Australia is the 3rd cheapest country in the world (of 51 nations) to buy an Apple iPad 2018; 9.7-inch tablet device, 32GB in US dollar terms. Last year Australia was the 17th cheapest country to buy an Apple iPad Pro 10.5-inch 64GB Wi-Fi device.
In 2016 Australia was the 20th cheapest country in the world (of 57 nations) to buy an Apple iPad Pro 12.9-inch 32GB Wi-Fi device. In 2015 Australia was the 2nd cheapest country in the world (of 55 nations) to buy an Apple iPad Air 2 tablet device. In November 2014 Australia was the 8th cheapest place to buy the new iPad, while in April 2014 Australia was the 13th cheapest to buy the older iPad Air device.
Notably, over the past year Australia has also improved sharply from 25th cheapest on the CommSec iPhone index to 4th spot. Pricing on the new model will be released on Wednesday.
Both the CommSec iPad index and CommSec iPhone index are useful in highlighting the globalisation of retail shopping and the powerful role occupied by currency changes.
Last year, at the then current exchange rates, Australian consumers would have found the latest iPad or iPhone to be less expensive to buy in a raft of Asian countries together with the US and Canada. It was argued the Aussie dollar was too high against major currencies on fundamentals. Perhaps Apple took that into account when pricing the new iPhone 8 back in September 2017?
Certainly the Reserve Bank has become more comfortable with the level of the Australian dollar as it has fallen over the past year. Most would say that the Reserve Bank is comfortable with the level of the currency.
When the currency weakens it improves the position of Aussie retailers. Aussie consumers are less inclined to go online and source the goods from abroad. And Aussie tourists may purchase goods at home in preference to buying the goods abroad.
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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Australia among cheapest places to buy new technolog: CommSec iPhone index

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices fell by 0.6% in July to stand 2.4% lower over the year.
The national home price index also fell by 0.6% in the month to be down 1.6% over the year.
The monthly decline was the largest fall in six and a half years.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/CommSec%201.JPG" alt="">
Manufacturing activity
The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 57.4 points to 52.0 in July.
And the CBA/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 55.0 points to 52.4 in July.
Both surveys have readings above 50 points, indicating that the manufacturing sector is expanding.
Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables.
The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/CommSec%204.JPG" alt="">
What does it all mean? 
The correction in Aussie home prices continues. National home prices have fallen for 10 straight months. The monthly decline in prices was the largest decline since September 2011. 
The rebalancing of supply and demand in Australia’s two largest cities – Sydney and Melbourne – will be ongoing. Despite strong population growth, demand is receding as falling prices and tighter lending conditions discourage property investors from taking out loans. And if building approvals are any guide, the supply of homes being built is still elevated. 
Home prices still increased in three cities – Darwin, Canberra and Brisbane – while Hobart prices were flat in July. And the annual growth rate of home prices in the ACT and Queensland appear to have stabilised. Queensland prices have consolidated at 0.7% for three successive months. In the ACT, the annual growth rate has lifted to 2.4% in July from 2.3% in May and June. 
Over the coming year, we expect variable capital city and regional home price direction. While some capital city home prices will fall, others will lift. The recovery in the mining sector should eventually support prices in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory as job opportunities are created. 
And retiring Baby Boomers will continue to seek a “Sea Change”, driving up prices in Newcastle, the Shoalhaven, the Mornington Peninsula and the Southern Highlands – all regions within a two hour commute of Sydney and Melbourne. And affordability has made Hobart Australia’s star property market performer. 
Business conditions are still positive, supported by a falling Aussie dollar. The AiGroup gauge has expanded for 22 successive months. The manufacturing surveys highlight that wages are beginning to lift, increasing costs for businesses. The drought and lifting energy costs are likely to increase input costs to production. And trade protectionism and weaker Chinese demand may impact new export orders.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/CommSec%203.JPG" alt="">
What do the figures show? 
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices fell by 0.6% in July to stand 2.4% lower over the year. The national home price index also fell by 0.6% in the month to be down 1.6% over the year. 
In capital cities, house prices fell by 0.6% in July and apartment prices fell by 0.5%. House prices were down 3.1% on a year ago and apartments are down by 0.5%.
In regional areas, home prices were down by 0.4% in July, but are still up 1.6% on the year. 
The average Australian capital city house price (median price) was $690,512 and the average unit price was $571,618. 
Dwelling prices fell in four of the eight capital cities in July. Home prices fell in Melbourne (down 0.9%); Perth (down 0.8%); Sydney (down 0.6%); and Adelaide (down 0.1%).
Prices rose in Darwin (up 0.4%); Canberra (up 0.2%) and Brisbane (up 0.1%). Hobart was flat. 
Home prices were higher than a year ago in four of the eight capital cities in July. Prices rose most in Hobart (up 11.5%); Canberra (up 2.4%); Brisbane (up 1.2%); and Adelaide (up 0.7%). Prices fell in Darwin (down 6.2%), Sydney (down by 5.4%); Perth (down by 2.3%); and Melbourne (down 0.5%). 
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 1.9% in the year to July with houses up 1.3% on a year earlier and units up 3.8%. 
The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 57.4 points to 52.0 in July. And the CBA/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 55.0 points to 52.4 in July. Both surveys have readings above 50 points, indicating that the manufacturing sector is expanding.
CBA noted: “Manufacturing activity has proved volatile of late. The July readings indicate a sluggish start to Q3. The downside looks limited, however, with firms remaining very positive on the outlook for the year ahead. They are also indicating that employment is lifting on the back of planned business expansion and inventories are lifting in anticipation of additional work. Demand appears strong enough to allow a relatively rapid lift in prices charged. The negative impact of a trade war would be magnified by any weakness in business confidence. That weakness is not evident at this early stage. New export orders fell in July. But they remain comfortably in expansion territory.” 
AiGroup highlights: "Infrastructure projects continue to support demand for manufacturing products, but rising energy costs and growing wage pressures are constraining activity." Of particular note, "many respondents noted an increase in wage rates from 1 July (including this year’s minimum wage increase of 3.5%) that are pushing up their labour input costs."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/CommSec%202.JPG" alt="">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
The rebalancing of the Aussie housing market continues. There will be winners and losers. While home prices are retracing in Sydney and Melbourne, prices are still up by 45-50% over the past five years. 
Home price leadership has been handed over to Hobart where home owners are now enjoying significant price appreciation of 11.5% over the past year. Prices in the Apple Isle are quickly closing in on the gains seen in Sydney and Melbourne over the past five years, with prices up by almost 39%. 
Both the bank regulator APRA and the Reserve Bank will be quietly pleased with their “managed slowdown” of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, with unsustainable price gains and rising mortgage debt both posing financial stability risks to the broader economy at the height of the housing boom. 
But clearly developments in the housing sector will be watched carefully by the Reserve Bank. Tightening credit conditions, in particular, will need to be monitored. Some smaller lenders are lifting mortgage rates, squeezing households struggling with elevated mortgage debt and anaemic wages growth. 
Total returns on shares have lifted 14.9% over the past year while returns on capital city homes are up 1.9%. And the Aussie sharemarket has posted gains for four consecutive months now and is up around 3.5% so far in 2018. Performance of these asset classes fluctuate over time, highlighting the value of diversification. 
CommSec expects official interest rates to be stable until 2019.
Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec
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