Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Commsec

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CommSec has analysed all results from ASX 200 companies. Traditionally brokers or analysts focus on smaller subsets of results. And some merely focus on just whether companies have met or fallen short of “market expectations”.
So far 125 of the ASX200 have reported half-year earnings. The earnings season effectively ends on February 28.
Some of the key results:
<ul>
<li>In aggregate, revenues are up 7.0% on a year ago; expenses are up 8.2%; profits are down by 1.5%; dividends are up 9.5% and cash is up 5.3%.</li>
<li>Excluding BHP, CBA and Telstra, profits are up 3.2% on a year ago.</li>
</ul>
The following points relate to those companies that have reported half-year results (HY reporting companies).
<ul>
<li>On revenues, 81% reported increases and 19% reported declines.</li>
<li>On expenses, 78% reported increases and 22% reported declines.</li>
<li>On profits, 94% reported a profit.</li>
<li>57% reported a lift in profit and 43% a decline (long-term average 61.4%).</li>
<li>Of those reporting a profit, 57% lifted profits and 43% reported a decline.</li>
<li>Of all HY reporting companies, 86% have issued a dividend and 14% haven’t.</li>
<li>Of those reporting a dividend, 75% lifted the dividend, 8% cut and 17% left dividends unchanged.</li>
<li>Of all companies reporting half-year earnings, 57% lifted cash holdings over the year and 43% cut cash levels.</li>
<li>Cash holdings of both full-year and half-year reporting companies stood at $112 billion at December 31, up 4.4%.
</li>
</ul>
The trends
<ul>
<li>Surveys conducted of the business sector over the past six months have generally been positive. The NAB business conditions index hit record (21-year) highs in October 2017. Using rolling averages, business conditions are at decade highs.  
</li>
<li>So it makes sense that companies are making money. In fact all but seven of the 125 ASX200 companies reporting for the six months to December, reported a profit. The 94.4% of companies recording a profit matches the record high proportion in the 2017 interim reporting season a year ago. 
</li>
<li>But aggregate profits aren’t soaring. In fact aggregate profits are down 1.5% on a year ago. Stripping out heavyweight companies, a small lift in aggregate profit was achieved. 
</li>
<li>In addition, if you look at the proportion of companies able to lift profits, it was only 57% – the smallest share in five years. 
</li>
<li>So where have the funds gone? Aggregate revenues lifted 7% over the year but expenses posted a stronger 8.2% increase. Some companies have chosen to invest more into their business. Others may have lifted marketing expenses to stay competitive. Still others may have faced higher costs – certainly energy bills have continued to lift along with other commodity prices. 
</li>
<li>Cash levels are still healthy, up 5.3% on a year ago for half-year reporting companies. But in the year to June 2017 cash levels were up by 23.5%. 
</li>
<li>As a result of decisions or circumstances that have led to a lift in expenses, thus restraining profits, a smaller proportion of companies have issued dividends. 
</li>
<li>For some time this had been expected – companies had to reach a point where they needed to spend more on the business. So the 86% of companies issuing a dividend was the smallest proportion for three years.  
</li>
<li>The important point is that for those companies paying a dividend, the desire has been to lift or maintain the dividend. In fact almost 92% of the dividend payers, elected to lift or maintain dividends – the highest share in the 16 reporting seasons we have tracked. 
</li>
<li>In aggregate, dividends per share were up 9.5% on a year ago. 
</li>
</ul>
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
<ul>
<li>Corporate Australia remains in strong shape. All but seven of the half-year reporting companies recorded a profit for the period despite stronger growth in expenses. 
</li>
<li>Corporate Australia is solidly in the black. But the bottom-line profits aren’t rising like they were in the recent past. And that is understandable. The base level of corporate profits is higher; global competition continues to lift; companies are investing more; and there was a solid lift in energy costs in the second half of 2017. 
</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the Australian economy is expected to grow at a faster pace over the coming year. A near record number of homes are being built although fewer new projects are likely to be started over the coming year, especially in Sydney and Melbourne and the Brisbane apartment market. 
</li>
<li>A growing number of infrastructure projects will support prospects of construction, industrial and transport sectors. 
</li>
<li>Resource companies and other companies with substantial operations overseas will benefit from stronger global economies. The challenge will be to restrain costs, particularly energy costs. 
</li>
<li>US sharemarkets have been volatile over February as investors weigh up high valuations and the prospects for higher interest rates. The Australian sharemarket will be affected like other sharemarkets should the volatility continue. But the Australian sharemarket is attractively valued with the lagged price-earnings at 15.79, only slightly above the long-term average. 
</li>
<li>CommSec expects the All Ordinaries to be trading in a 6,250-6,650 point range by the end of calendar year 2018 with the ASX200 around 100 points lower than the stated range.</li>
</ul>
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/26/CI%206.jpg" alt="">
Craig James is chief economist at CommSec.
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Bottom-line profits of corporate Australia are rising like the recent past: CommSec's Craig James

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The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 3.5 per cent last week. Sentiment towards household finances and the economy fell, despite a recovery in global stock markets and strong jobs data. However, the index remains above its long-term average of 112.9.  
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Consumers’ inflation expectations rose to 4.7 per cent last week, up from 4.4 per cent in the previous week. This is the equal highest reading in 13 months. The consumer assessment comes at a time when US markets are pricing-in higher inflation. The strongest US wages growth since June 2009 prompted the market sell-off a few weeks ago.
Assistant Governor Michele Bullock spoke on “Household Indebtedness and Mortgage Stress” in Sydney this morning. The Assistant Governor allayed concerns about household debt and mortgage stress. She highlighted that the “the overall level of stress among mortgaged households remains relatively low”. She also cited the HILDA survey, suggesting that “mortgage repayments were not at levels that would indicate an unusual or high level of financial stress for most owner-occupiers”. In fact, “the number of households experiencing financial stress has fallen steadily since the mid-2000s”. This view is in contrast to some private sector surveys which have pointed to rising financial/mortgage stress and the negative impact on household consumption.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/comm1.jpg" alt="">
Reserve Bank Board minutes: The minutes from the February 6 Board meeting were issued. The Board’s neutral policy bias remain intact with a period of record low interest rate stability ahead for the foreseeable future. It noted that “inflation also remained low, but was expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthened and wage pressures rose over the forecast period.”
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings.
</div>
 
<div class="x_WordSection2">
What does it all mean?
·         Political uncertainty in Canberra, falling home prices and lingering concerns about stock market volatility weighed on household’s views toward their finances and the economic outlook last week.
·         The weaker consumer confidence rating occurred despite record jobs growth and a recovery in share markets during the survey period. In fact, the Australian S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index, while down so far in February (-1.6 per cent to February 19), has outperformed US equities (Dow Jones Industrial Index, -3.6 per cent).  
·         Aussie households are also acutely aware of global developments. Inflation pressures are building in the US. Rising inflation in the form of wages growth and interest rate anxiety prompted the recent sell-off on Wall Street.
·         The US is enjoying full employment with the unemployment rate at 16-year lows of 4.1 per cent. Strong jobs growth and a tightening labour market have contributed to average hourly earnings jumping to 2.9 per cent on an annual basis in January, the largest increase since June 2009. 
·         And on Friday, the US January core Consumer Price Index increased by 0.35 percentage points - the highest monthly result in 12 years.
·         Despite US economic outperformance, the Aussie labour market is strengthening. In fact, a record 16 consecutive months of jobs growth has been posted with the annual pace of jobs creation (403,100) the highest in 12½ years.
·         Record jobs growth has lifted the consumer sentiment rating off its most recent lows back in August. And while consumer prices remain subdued because of global competition, Aussies’ expectations for price rises are growing. Certainly buoyant business conditions and profits are pre-conditions for pay rises. Skilled job vacancies are beginning to emerge in some industries.
·         The Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe recently spoke about the benefits of stronger wage growth. He was concerned that annual wage growth near 2 per cent was seen as the new norm. Governor Lowe said that a 2.5 per cent inflation rate was consistent with a 3.5 per cent lift in wages. 
·         In today’s February meeting minutes, the Board surmised that “it was possible that ongoing strength in the demand for labour might result in wage growth picking up by more than anticipated, both in Australia and abroad.”
·         The Reserve Bank appears comfortable with the rebalancing of the Aussie housing market and overall levels of household debt. Putting things into perspective, Assistant Governor Michele Bullock concluded that “the overall level of stress among mortgaged households remains relatively low” and “mortgage stress has fallen over the past decade”.
·         The Assistant Governor also remarked that risks from “household mortgage stress are not particularly acute at the moment”, with large mortgage buffers and other data suggesting “mortgage stress has fallen over the past decade”. Similarly, for investors, Ms. Bullock noted that these mortgagees tend to have higher deposits, higher incomes, more assets, have been “resilient to the recent (regulatory) changes” and that the risk to financial stability from this source also “remained low”.         
What do the figures show?
Consumer Sentiment
·- The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 3.5 per cent to 115.3. Confidence is down by 3.2 per cent over the year, but well above the average of 113.5 since 2014 and average of 112.9 since 1990.
- All five components of the index fell in the latest week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +5.9 to +4.2;
- The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +25.2 to +23.6;
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +13.2 to +7.0; 
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +16.5 to +6.3; 
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +36.9 to +35.6.  
- The measure of inflation expectations 2 years ahead rose to 4.7 per cent from 4.4 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/comm2.jpg" alt="">
 
Household Indebtedness and Mortgage Stress speech:
- Last paragraph: “The information we have suggests that, while there are some pockets of financial stress, the overall level of stress among mortgaged households remains relatively low.”
- “Appropriately prudent lending standards will continue to play an important role in ensuring that the financial system remains stable and households borrow responsibly.”
- On mortgage serviceability: “As recently as 2016, mortgage repayments were not at levels that would indicate an unusual or high level of financial stress for most owner-occupiers.” From the HILDA survey: “the median ratio of mortgage servicing payments to income has been fairly stable through time, remaining around 20 per cent in 2016”. Also, “financial stress for owner-occupiers with mortgage debt has not changed much over the past decade, and is actually lower than in the early 2000s. Around 12 per cent of such households indicated that they would expect difficulty raising funds in an emergency in 2016.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/comm3.jpg" alt="">
- On measures of financial stress: “Banks' non-performing housing loans have been trending upwards over the past few years, although they remain very low in absolute terms at around 0.8 per cent of banks' domestic housing loan books. Much of this rise is attributable to a rise in non-performing loans in the mining-exposed states of Western Australia and Queensland – not unexpected given the large falls in employment and housing prices in some of these regions.”
- On investor borrowing: “The recent increases in interest rates on investor loans, in response to APRA's measures to reduce the growth in investor lending, has probably affected the cash flows of investors. Interest rates on outstanding variable-rate interest-only loans to investors have increased by 60 basis points since late 2016. However, over the past few years, lenders have been assessing borrowers' ability to service the loan at a minimum interest rate of at least 7 per cent. So while interest rates and required repayments have likely risen, many borrowers should be relatively resilient to the recent changes.”
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Reserve Bank Board minutes:
- Last paragraph: “Taking into account the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”  
- “Members noted that global growth could continue to surprise on the upside, given the synchronised nature of the current upturn. Stronger demand could induce higher global inflation than expected, which would have implications both for financial asset prices and exchange rates. Stronger global growth would boost growth and inflation in Australia, particularly if the exchange rate were to depreciate.”
- “Household debt levels remained elevated and members agreed that household balance sheets still warranted careful monitoring.”
- “Strong competition in the retail sector, which had placed downward pressure on the prices of consumer durables and food for some time, was expected to persist in the next few years.”
- Business conditions had remained at a relatively high level in recent quarters. Private non-mining business investment had increased by more than expected in the September quarter, to be nearly 10 per cent higher over the preceding year. Members noted that the prospects for private non-mining investment were more positive than they had been for some time.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/comm5.jpg" alt="">
- “Members observed that, while standard variable interest rates for housing loans had been little changed since mid 2017, the average outstanding variable rate had declined slightly as new and refinanced loans were typically being offered at lower rates.”
- “The unemployment rate was expected to decline a little further over this period to 5¼ per cent, consistent with GDP growth rising to be above potential.”  
- “Over 2017, progress had been made in reducing the unemployment rate and bringing inflation closer to target.”
- “There was still a risk that growth in consumption might turn out to be weaker than forecast if household income growth were to increase by less than expected.” 
- “Members noted that there had continued to be positive spillovers from the pick-up in public infrastructure investment, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria.”
- “The Australian dollar had appreciated a little on a trade-weighted basis over prior months, but had remained within the relatively narrow range in which it had been over the preceding couple of years.”
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
- The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/comm6.jpg" alt="">
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
- Consumer confidence has improved since bottoming in August last year. Sentiment was at 4-year highs at the beginning of the year on the back of strong jobs gains and record low interest rates. The economic backdrop has not fundamentally changed despite recent share market volatility. 
- Political uncertainty in Canberra is nothing new to most Aussies. Hung parliaments and small government majorities have been the norm since 2010.
- But Aussie households are becoming acutely aware of building global inflationary pressures. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s quarterly Wages Price Index print.
- The Reserve Bank expects inflation to only increase gradually as the economy continues to strengthen on the back of robust business investment and infrastructure-related government spending. The global economic backdrop is supportive.
- The Bank’s liaison program also implied a recovery in retail sales following recent global competition-related weakness, a gradual rise in rents and a moderation in average outstanding variable mortgage rates.
- In an environment of weak income growth, household consumption and elevated mortgage debt remains an uncertainty this year. It is expected that as spare capacity in the labour market recedes over the year, this could boost wages growth, albeit gradually. 
- On a positive note, the Reserve Bank believes that Aussie mortgage stress is “relatively low”. And while debt levels are high, the number of owner-occupiers currently experiencing acute financial stress is not growing rapidly. 
- CommSec doesn’t expect a change in interest rates until late 2018 at the earliest.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Reserve Bank content, but consumers cautious: CommSec

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This is the third year running that this topic has been included in the year’s Big Issues.
In 2015 we said: “the answer will be revealed over 2016.” In 2016 we were more circumspect saying “we believe that discussion will continue to swirl about what sort of landing the housing market will experience.”
And indeed the issue has continued to be debated. But arguably the longer that the issue is debated, the more likely that Australia’s buoyant housing markets, notably Sydney and Melbourne, will experience a soft landing.'
Certainly there are many parts of the country that have far different experiences. Perth and Darwin housing markets are going through corrections after mining and energy construction booms. Adelaide and Brisbane have generally seen steady conditions. However the significant apartment building in Brisbane has led to a very soft rental market. Interestingly though, demand for some accommodation like townhouses is strong and not being met by supply, supporting prices.
The Hobart housing market is firm, benefitting from an overflow of housing demand from Sydney and Melbourne. The issue is one of under-supply rather than over-supply. And the Canberra housing market remains healthy, due in part to the control of land supply by the ACT Government.
The Sydney housing market has certainly softened with a combination of cooling demand and the gradual completion of more homes, especially apartments. The auction clearance rate has eased to around 61 per cent, down from around 80 per cent a year ago. But population growth remains solid in Sydney and rental vacancy rates are still low. In Melbourne, the market remains solid, again supported by population growth.
A key factor that points to the potential for a “soft” landing rather than “hard” landing in markets such as Sydney and Melbourne has been the policy of lenders. Reflecting on the experience of housing over-supply in the US and Europe during the Global Financial Crisis, Australian lenders adopted a new policy. Before lenders would provide finance to developers they sought that around 100 per cent of properties be sold “off the plan” by developers. There is still scope for ‘indigestion’ in some markets with a lot of building going on, but less scope for a broader “hard landing”.
Craig James cited a number of big issues for 2018:
- US President Donald Trump 
- How long will inflation stay low?
- The disconnect between jobs and wages
- Housing: Hard landing or soft landing?
- Infrastructure
- The economic benefit of lower taxes
- Consumer Debt
- The 'slowdown' of the Chinese economy
 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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Housing hard landing or soft landing? CommSec Research - The Big Issues of 2018

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The average floor size of an Australian home (houses and apartments) has fallen to a 20-year low, though latest data indicates that Australian homes are the second biggest in the world, behind the US.
Data commissioned by CommSec from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, shows the average new home is 189.8 square metres, down 2.7 per cent over the past year and the smallest since 1997.
The smaller home size can be attributed in a major way to the increased apartment construction, CommSec said in the report.
Although free-standing houses are still bigger. 
In fact, the average new house built in 2016/17 was 233.3 square metres, the biggest in four years and more than 11 per cent bigger than 20 years ago. 
The average house built today is over 30 per cent bigger than 30 years ago (the 1986/87 financial year).
On average, US houses are still bigger by around 5 per cent. And US homes (houses and apartments) are 8 per cent bigger.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/17/NewHomesBuilt.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/17/NewHomesBuilt.png" alt="">
Victorians are building the biggest houses in Australia, ahead of Western Australia and NSW. But the average size of houses built in South Australia in 2016/17 was the biggest in the state’s history.
In fact, the size of the average new house has grown slightly over the past two years. 
House sizes are important when comparing prices over time, the CommSec report says. 
“Not only are houses far bigger than those built in the 1980s and before, but the standard of fit-out today is far superior with quality kitchens, bathrooms, floor coverings and inclusions like air-conditioners,” it said.
Compared to US, Australian homes are the second biggest in the world.
The average new house built in the US last calendar year (latest available) was 245 sqm, around 5 per cent bigger than in Australia. And US homes (houses and apartments) averaged 204 sqm in 2016, around 8 per cent bigger than in Australia.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/17/AvgHomeSize.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/17/AvgHomeSize.png" alt="">
Neighbouring New Zealand is not far behind, with the average home built in 2016/17 (data on houses isn’t available) being 178.3 sqm, around 6 per cent smaller than in Australia.
The last global survey conducted by the United Nations indicates that the average floor area of new homes built in US, Australia and New Zealand were far larger than in other European economies.
In recent years a key trend in Australia has been the rise in construction of apartments, which now make up nearly half of all homes built unlike seven years ago when only around 27 per cent of homes built were apartments. 
The increase in the number of apartments being built has reduced the size of the average home in Australia. 
In fact the average home was 189.8 sqm in 2016/17, the lowest level in 20 years and down 2.7 per cent on a year ago.
Through the 2004-2009 period, the average apartment was around 140 sqm. Today, it is closer to 130 sqm.
“The shift to smaller apartments may mean that more of them need to be built to house the growing population compared with free-standing houses. And this point emphasises that when considering issues like under-supply and over-supply, a range of issues need to be considered,” says the report.
Five years ago economists were baffled by the failure of home building to lift to the level of assumed underlying demand. However the “apparent paradox” was explained by structural change such as demographics and increased utilisation of Australia’s large homes.
Now household size is falling again, and at the same time that the average home size is also falling. If current trends continue, more homes can be built without resulting in over-supply conditions. In short, supply would merely be responding to stronger demand. 
“The key point being that it is not just population, but demographics and choice of accommodation driving demand,” says the report.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Australian home size hits 20-year low: CommSec report

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It is difficult to be negative about the economy when data shows that there were more new vehicles sold in 2016 than any calendar year before.
And it is not just so-called ‘standard’ vehicles being sold, but sports/luxury vehicles are taking a bigger share of total sales.
It’s not hard to see why people are updating their rides.
Car affordability is at the best levels recorded, employment is rising, interest rates are at record lows and wealth levels are at record highs.
Car affordability is even stronger when you consider that vehicles built in 2016 are far superior to those sold in the early 1970s.
Vehicle sales should remain solid in 2017. Interest rates are unlikely to rise any time soon and car manufacturers are competing hard for business, restraining prices.
In addition, all indications point to firm conditions in the job market.
The area to watch is the housing market as softer home prices could restrain car buying enthusiasm - although even that seems to be an unlikely outcome.
The services sector expansion is now accelerating at a healthy pace. In fact the Performance of Services index is now showing the fastest pace of expansion in almost 10 years.
And more importantly the resurgence in activity is broad-based with all five components of the index recording strong gains.
In particular the lift in new orders and the employment sub-indices bode well for hiring in coming months.
It was interesting that respondents noted a variety of reasons for the lift in service sector activity - from stronger customer demand, a lift in mining sector activity, to a lower Australian dollar and “good agricultural harvests”.
As we have been saying for a couple of months, the result mirrors the lift in activity noted across internal Commonwealth Bank Indicators like the Business Sales Indicator.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/CS-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/CS-1.jpg" alt="">
The Reserve Bank will be quietly confident on how the economy is panning out.
The key will be how non-mining business investment evolves over the next six months. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over 2017.
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), new motor vehicle sales totalled 98,763 in December, down 0.9 per cent on a year ago.
In 2016, a total of 1,178,133 new vehicles were sold – a record for a calendar year.
Sales by State: NSW (397,563), Victoria (326,269), Queensland (233,026), Western Australia (100,234), South Australia (71,738), Tasmania (19,751), ACT (18,816) and NT (10,736).
Respective market shares by vehicle type were: passenger (41.3 per cent), SUV (37.4 per cent), light commercial (18.5 per cent), and heavy commercial (2.8 per cent).
The top-five segments by volume were small cars (224,450, down 4 per cent), medium SUV (172,194, up 16.5 per cent), 4×4 ute (146,820, up 10 per cent), large SUV (142,495, up 2 per cent) and small SUV (110,414, up 2 per cent).
The sub-total of sales by buyer type for 2016 was: private (571,544, down 7 per cent), business (472,156, up 13 per cent), government (40,989, down 1.4 per cent) and rental (60,335, up 6 per cent).
Buyers using their ABN to buy a single car count as a business sale, while novated leases count as private.
Leading vehicle sources: Japan (325,689), Thailand (285,465), Korea (162,642), Germany (87,392) and Australia (87,096).
The top-selling vehicle was the Toyota HiLux, ahead of the Toyota Corolla, Hyundai i30, Ford Ranger, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, Holden Commodore, Mazda CX-5, Mitsubishi Triton and Hyundai Tucson.
Top makes for 2016: Toyota (14th year in succession) with 209,610 units (up 1.6 per cent), ahead of top full- importer Mazda (118,217, up 3.7 per cent) and Hyundai (101,555, down 0.4 per cent). Holden finished outside the top-three, in fourth place on 94,308 (down 8.4 per cent), holding out a resurgent Ford (81,207, up more than 15 per cent).
The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index lifted by 6.6 points to 57.7 in December – marking the highest result since May 2007.
AI Group notes “All five activity sub-indexes in the Australian PSI® were above 50 points and indicate expansion in December.
Sales jumped 14 points in December, up to 62.1 points from 48.1 in November.
New orders rose by 6.4 points to 60.4 points. Stocks lifted 5.7 points to 52.6 points, growing in ten out of the past eleven months.
The employment subindex picked up the pace, growing by 4.3 points to 56.6 points.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/CS-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/CS-2.jpg" alt="">
“A number of respondents to the Australian PSI® noted that conditions were more positive in December with: customer demand strengthening; increased orders from the mining sector; a lower value for the Australian dollar; interest rates remaining stable and (for regional services) good agricultural harvests.
Overall, there was a sense of increased confidence from respondents across many services sub-sector.”
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month.
The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
The economy appears to be regaining momentum.
But as always more data is required to confirm the change in direction.
Certainly confidence levels are healthy, providing optimism early in the New Year.
The Reserve Bank is comfortably on the interest rate sidelines.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for CommSec.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Difficult to be negative after record car sales in 2016: Savanth Sebastian

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The housing sector certainly seems to have finished off 2016 with a bang. Home prices surged by 1.4 per cent in December, according to CommSec's latest economic update report.
But it was more encouraging to see that the lift in home prices was more uniform across the capital cities, and even regional house prices recorded a healthy lift.
No doubt the improvement in economic conditions and low interest rates continues to fuel the interest in property.
Resource states noted a decent lift in prices over December.
And looking forward the lift in commodity prices may mean that the mining towns have come through the worst of the downturn.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation.
And in particular a further lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/CS-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/CS-1.jpg" alt="">
Annual growth in home prices across regional centres is still just 2.8 per cent.
Global oil prices have risen steeply over the past couple of months, however motorists across some capital cities are still enjoying petrol at or below the cost price (terminal gate price).
In Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide pump prices are around $1.21-$1.23 a litre – only 3-5 cents above wholesale prices.
Essentially motorists using fuel discount dockets will be buying petrol below cost.
The low petrol prices are not sustainable and prices in these capital cities are likely to lift markedly in coming days.
Interestingly in Brisbane and Canberra, prices are closer to a $1.30 a litre, while prices in Perth are closer to $1.40 a litre.
The production cuts announced by OPEC and non-OPEC nations were the first in 15 years and highlight the underlying concern about over-supplied oil markets.
The focus now shifts to see if oil producers comply with the stated production cuts.
The early indications are that producers are already notifying customers in Asia, Europe and the US of cuts to oil deliveries from January.
Importantly for motorists it means higher pump prices in the medium-term.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/CS-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/CS-2.jpg" alt="">
The latest Australian manufacturing data is encouraging, suggesting that the current levels of interest rates and the Australian dollar are working in favour of domestic producers.
No doubt the sector is also benefitting from the stronger demand associated with the improved performance of the global economy.
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices surged by 1.4 per cent in December and was up 10.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 1.1 per cent in November and were just 2.8 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of November).
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.4 per cent in December while apartment prices fell by 0.3 per cent.
House prices were up 11.6 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 5.9 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $650,000 and the average unit price was $536,000.
Dwelling prices rose in five of the eight capital cities in December: Hobart (up 3.3 per cent), Melbourne (up 3.1 per cent), Perth (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 0.9 per cent), and Brisbane (up 0.6 per cent). Prices fell in Adelaide (down 2.0 per cent), followed by Canberra (down 0.3 per cent) and Darwin (down 0.1 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 15.5 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 13.7 per cent), Hobart (up 11.2 per cent); Canberra (up 9.3 per cent); Adelaide (up 4.2 per cent), Brisbane (up 3.6 per cent) and Darwin (up 0.9 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.3 per cent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 14.7 per cent in calendar year 2016 with houses up 15.3 per cent on a year earlier and units up 10.4 per cent.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 1.2 points to 55.4 in December. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding.
AIG notes “Six of the seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® improved from November. Strong expansions in new orders (60.6 points) and sales (58.8 points) continued in December, while exports surged ahead (68.5 points), Production (58.2 points) also expanded more strongly while deliveries (52.4 points) continued to grow.
Employment (47.4 points) slipped in December, in line with recently weaker jobs growth. Five of the eight sub-sectors in the Australian PMI® expanded in December (three month moving averages).”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/CS-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/CS-3.jpg" alt="">
“Comments from manufacturers in December indicate that demand (albeit somewhat mixed) appears to be improving again after a weak patch in the latter half of 2016.
The recovery in commodity prices has led to better conditions for manufacturers exposed to the mining sector, with some revival of mining investment and maintenance spending.
However, surging energy costs, weaker local demand and slower spending on particular major projects is depressing activity for some manufacturers.”
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at a 14-month high of 118.4 cents a litre, up by 1.8 cents a litre over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 115.1 cents a litre, up by 1.2 cents a litre over the previous week.
On Friday, the key Singapore gasoline price stood at a 16-month high of US$69.76 a barrel, up by US$1.66 or 2.4 per cent over the week.
In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.94 a barrel or 3.1 per cent to $96.82 a barrel or 60.89 cents a litre.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 121.2c; Melbourne 123.1c; Brisbane 129.8c; Adelaide 121.6c; Perth 138.9c; Canberra 127.7c; Darwin 129.3c; Hobart 128.7c.
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP).
National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions.
AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/CS-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/CS-4.jpg" alt="">
The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge.
The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading.
The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
Petrol prices are headed higher. And given that petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase that most families make, higher pump prices may serve to restrain growth in spending.
If home prices lift too quickly policymakers will once again raise concerns about the need for a further tightening in lending standards.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for CommSec.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Major city home prices soar and mining towns get through the worst: Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank board minutes make for interesting reading, although there was no significant surprise in views.
Board members were upbeat about the improvement in the global economy – particularly China and were also aware of the likelihood of the weaker domestic September quarter economic growth result.
Interestingly, policymakers highlighted a couple of concerns at the time of the December 6 Board meeting – in particular the complications of “an appreciating exchange rate” on rebalancing the economy and “uncertainty about the moment in the labour market”.
Since the board meeting the Australian dollar has lost well over two cents (2.4%) against the US dollar and is even 1.3% lower against the trade weighted index.
Importantly the latest round of employment data showed a substantial rebound in full-time employment.
No doubt it is still early days but the improvements would give policymakers a degree of comfort.
Looking forward it is likely that the lift in commodity prices should support medium-term employment in the commodity states.
The focus for central bank official would be on how the business investment profile shifts over the coming year.
It is clear that a lift in non-mining business investment will be need to support broader economic growth.
Overall inflation remains well contained despite the lift in commodity prices.
Simply interest rate settings are likely to remain stable until well into 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-7.jpg" alt="">
Members noted that the international environment had been more positive in recent months, while observing that significant risks to the outlook for global activity persisted.
The Chinese economy had remained resilient, supported by expansionary fiscal policy and rapid growth in financing.
“There was still considerable uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market,” the minutes said.
The unemployment rate had declined over the past year, as had measures of excess capacity that accounted for the number of additional desired hours of work.
Part-time employment had grown strongly over the previous year, but employment growth overall had slowed.
Members noted that there was expected to be excess capacity in the labour market for some time, which was consistent with further indications of subdued labour cost pressures.
This suggested that inflation would remain low for some time before returning to more normal levels.
“Members noted that these factors had assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom and that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment.”
“Housing market conditions had strengthened overall over preceding months, although there was considerable variation across the country and between houses and apartments. Housing credit growth had picked up a little, particularly for investors.”
“Prices for a number of Australia's key commodities, including coking coal, iron ore and base metals, had increased noticeably over the June and September quarters, which had contributed to the increase in Australia's terms of trade of about 6% over that period.
“3Commodity prices had risen further over November, suggesting that an increase in the terms of trade in the December quarter was likely.
“Taking into account the information that had become available over the previous month, and having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-8.jpg" alt="">
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period.
Could the next move in interest rates be a rate hike rather than a rate cut? It’s important not to get too far ahead of ourselves.
Inflation is still historically low. And while there is speculation of growth-focussed policies in the US, they haven’t been fleshed out.
However you get a sense that inflation has reached an inflexion point.
Savanth Sebastian is senior economist with CommSec.
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RBA board members upbeat about improvment in global economy: Savanth Sebastian

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The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50 per cent. The Reserve Bank is expected to await the September quarter inflation data in late October to decide the next move in rates.
What does it all mean?
<ul>
<li>Will the Reserve Bank Cut rates again? Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe raised doubts on future rate cuts when giving testimony just over a week ago. “The global sense is that monetary policy is not working as effectively as it might have in previous years. I think there are three possible responses to that. The one we have been doing is to just do more monetary policy: if it is not working, do a bit more until it does work. This is why we have found ourselves in some countries with interest rates in negative territory and unprecedented balance sheet expansion. You can keep doing more of something in the hope that it finally works, and my judgement is that that has not been particularly useful.”</li>
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<ul>
<li>So it is now a case of waiting for the inflation data on October 26. Growth in underlying inflation in the quarter would need to be 0.4 per cent or below for the Reserve Bank to discuss cutting rates again.</li>
</ul>
The Reserve Bank has maintained the neutral policy stance. That means, the Reserve Bank is not leaning in favour of rate cuts or rate hikes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="column">There has been some additional text added to the statement, but nothing substantive. Additional information has been provided on the job market, highlighting the strength of part-time jobs compared with full-time positions. In terms of housing, the RBA does note “Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.” Perspectives on interest rates
<ul>
<li>
  The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 per cent. The previous rate cut was in August 2016 (25 basis points).
</li>
<li>  There have now been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, cutting rates from 4.75 per cent to 1.50 per cent.</li>
<li>  The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.</li>
</ul>
What are the implications of today’s decision?
<ul>
<li>  Investors need to work on the premise that the low inflation/low interest rate world will be around for a while yet. And this is very much a global phenomenon. Consumers can buy goods whenever they want and wherever they are, keeping downward pressure on prices. So yield is still king when investors are assessing alternative financial assets.</li>
<li>  Note that Reserve Bank may continue to tolerate a low inflation outcome. Remember that the target band is expressed as a medium-term objective: “Both the Reserve Bank and the Government agree that a flexible medium-term inflation target is the appropriate</li>
</ul>
 
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%203.27.15%20pm.png" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%203.27.15%20pm.png" alt="" width="405" height="286">
 
 
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Will the Reserve Bank cut rates again? CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consumer confidence: The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 4.4 percent to 120.6 in the week to September 25.
It was the biggest weekly gain in 11 months and the confidence reading is well above the average of 112.6 since 2014.
Finances healthy: The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago has hit the highest levels in seven years.
What does it all mean?
Just like other financial commentators and analysts, the Reserve Bank takes an interest in the regular readings of consumer confidence. Roy Morgan and ANZ compile a weekly index and the Melbourne Institute and Westpac produce a monthly confidence measure.
But from the Reserve Bank’s point of view, the questions posed on family finances are the most revealing. Clearly if consumers believe that their finances are in good shape, and are expected to stay that way, then they are far more likely to spend.
So it is important that the latest survey shows the current state of family finances at the best levels in seven years. Or expressed another way, finances are the best since the global financial crisis. Expectations of another rate cut have been receding and the latest consumer confidence readings will reinforce that trend.
The consumer survey is clearly great news for any business dependent on consumer spending, especially the more discretionary or non-essential purchases.
What do figures show?
Consumer confidence 
<a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%2011.22.37%20AM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%2011.22.37%20AM.jpg" alt="">
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 4.4 percent (5.1 points) to 120.6 in the week to September 25. Confidence is up 9 percent over the year and well above the average of 112.6 since 2014. All five components of the index rose in the latest week:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +10 to +16; 
</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25 to +30; 
</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +1 to +6; 
</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +9 to +12; 
</li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +33 points to +39 points.</li>
</ul>
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Consumer confidence is clearly healthy and is supporting a lift in spending - a result that was largely confirmed in the August Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index, a gauge of economy-wide spending.
More confident consumers are more likely to spend – although there are no guarantees.
While we haven’t yet ruled out a November rate cut, much will depend on the inflation readings released in late October.
<a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%2011.22.47%20AM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%2011.22.47%20AM.jpg" alt="">
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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