Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Bis Oxford

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
There is no relief for tenants looking to move over the short to medium term or for those facing lease renewals.
Over the last 12 months, Sydney’s metropolitan office vacancy rate has fallen below 5%.
The last time that happened was during the late 1980’s boom.
Moreover, the period of low vacancies has only just begun, with BIS Oxford Economics forecasting a sub-5% vacancy rate for at least three more years.
That is not good news for tenants with a short to medium term lease expiry – they will face much higher rents and limited relocation options.
Conversely, the balance of power in lease negotiations has shifted back towards building owners and will stay there for some time yet.
Sydney’s office vacancies have fallen significantly over the last two years, as moderate net absorption (underpinned by a solid NSW economic and employment growth) was met by below average completions and close to zero net additions to stock.
By the end of 2018, it is estimated the Sydney metropolitan vacancy rate will fall to 4.6%.
Sydney’s problem is on the supply side, not the demand side.
With almost nothing added to stock over the last two years, demand is starting to be constrained by a shortage of available space.
With vacancy rates a primary driver of rents, CBD prime average net stated rents have risen by over 20% since December 2016 with effective rents (taking into account leasing incentives) up by one third.
Indeed, since the post GFC cycle trough in 2009 face rentals have risen by close to 70% and around 125% in effective rent terms.
The bad news for tenants facing upcoming lease expiries is there is no relief from rising rents in sight for at least three years.
The current round of office projects underway – focused on the CBD, North Sydney, Parramatta and Eveleigh – will be easily absorbed by the market, keeping the metropolitan vacancy rate below 5% until at least 2021, with the CBD even tighter.
Low metro-wide vacancies mean there will be limited options available for CBD tenants seeking to move out of the City to avoid rising rents in the medium term.
Rents will be rising strongly in the suburban markets as well.
Building owners’ time has come within the Sydney office market and it looks set to stay that way for some time to come.
LEE WALKER is the responsible for BIS Oxford Economics's Sydney and Perth commercial forecasting studies
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The Sydney office market is facing at least three more years of low vacancies: Lee Walker

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Australia's changing consumer spending patterns, over both time and across age groups, are changing the face of the country's retail sector, says new research. 
BIS Oxford Economics’ Retail Property Market report shows that Australians are buying fewer ‘things’ and, increasingly, consumers are not buying them from traditional shops.
These trends present a formidable challenge to retailers and shopping centre owners and developers, it says. 
Together with the cyclically weak retail environment and it threatens retailer survival and shopping centre income returns, says report author, Senior Project Manager Maria Lee.
“There's another key threat to retail property returns, and that that’s the risk of softening investment yields,” she says.
“The share of household expenditure on clothing and footwear has more than halved since 1984, from 6.5% to 3.1%.
“Not only that, but the dollar amount spent actually fell between the 2009–10 ABS Household Expenditure Survey and the 2015–16 survey.”
The report also points to the inexorable rise of online shopping. The online market share is currently around 8%, growing at over 15% per annum.
Lee points out that more mature online markets, such as the US and some European countries, are still seeing growth rates of around 15% even with much higher market shares than in Australia.
“It’s a real possibility that a growth rate of 15% per annum could be sustained for some time,” says Lee.
“If so, this would result in an online market share of 22% within 10 years.”
BIS Oxford Economics forecasts that shopping centre incomes will see muted growth over coming years in light of the above challenges.
A return to stronger economic conditions should bring with it a pick-up in consumer spending early next decade, but the company expects only modest retail turnover growth on average over the next 10 years.
As a result, shopping centre net income growth is forecast to stay only just ahead of inflation.
“And there are probably more downside than upside risks to that forecast,” cautions Lee.
BIS Oxford Economics expects increases in bond rates over the next few years to pose a key risk to shopping centre yields.
“We’re not forecasting a great degree of softening in investment yields but, even so, we forecast five year IRRs for regional centres of just 5.5%," says Lee.
“That suggests that they are currently overvalued relative to hurdle rates of return.”
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Changing customer behaviour a formidable challenge to retailers: BIS Oxford Economics

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House prices on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have generally moved in tandem with Brisbane.
The same drivers of population growth present in the capital are present in these regions, primarily net interstate migration inflows and, to a lesser extent, overseas migration, according to the latest report from BIS Oxford Economics.
However, both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have experienced significantly stronger price growth than Brisbane since 2012.
The economists noted that, "These markets experienced a larger post-mining boom downturn", this caused a slump in new dwelling construction in these markets creating significant under-supply, with vacancy rates of 1.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent recorded in each of these markets respectively in March quarter 2018.
However, after average median house price growth of 6.3 per cent per annum in the five years to June 2017 in Brisbane, price growth has now slowed to an estimated two per cent in 2017/18 based on economic data.
In contrast on the Sunshine Coast, median house price growth has averaged 5.4 per cent per annum, although the upturn has continued with an estimated seven per cent rise in 2017/18.
"The local economies are also relatively strong, driven by a growing tourism sector, and several large construction projects," noted the report.
"However, a number of projects on the Gold Coast are now complete after a push to have them finished by the Commonwealth Games."
Similarly, the next round of projects on the Sunshine Coast are not as large as recent work, such as the expansion of the Sunshine Coast University Hospital.
The economists suggested that, in addition to these other factors supply has been rising in both markets and this will alleviate some of the price pressures in place.
The strong recent price growth relative to Brisbane will also make it less attractive for Brisbane seachangers to move north or south.
The report forecasts that, these factors are expected to slow price growth to a total six per cent in both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast over the three years to June 2021.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".
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Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast housing market's price growth outstripping Brisbane's: BIS Oxford Economics

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The Townsville market hasn’t recovered since peaking in 2008, with the median house price falling by 13 per cent to June 2017.
Vacancy rates in Townsville remain relatively high, at 3.8 per cent in March quarter 2018, although are well down from a peak of 7.1 per cent eighteen months earlier, according to a report released this week by BIS Oxford Economics.
Reflecting this improvement, it appears that the downturn has stabilised, with the median house price on track to rise by two per cent in 2017/18.
The Cairns market has shown more upside, having not experienced the mining boom/bust of Townsville.
Vacancy rates have remained in the 2–3 per cent range since 2012, with a total 21 per cent growth in the median house price coming through over 2012 to 2017 the report stated.
The economists temper this by noting that, "price growth has slowed in 2017/18 and is on track to be flat according."
"In real terms, Townsville’s estimated median house price at June 2018 is 30 per cent below its December 2017 peak in real terms, suggesting there would be little more downside."
The local unemployment rate has improved, although this appears to be on the back of lower participation rates, rather than higher, meaning that "hidden unemployment" could become problematic.
Population growth is weak and as such, minimal price growth is expected over 2018/19 and 2019/20, before some signs of an upturn emerge by 2020/21 with vacancy rates tightening, and some economic recovery coming through as rising tourist arrivals underpin the upgrade of existing tourism infrastructure the economists suggested.
Cumulative growth of nine per cent is forecast in the three years to June 2021 for Townsville.
Whereas the BIS Oxford economists forecast that the Cairns market will begin running out of steam after steady, albeit moderate, price growth to 2017.
Population growth remains slow and, apart from growth in tourism, there remain few other drivers in the local economy that can help employment growth and push through price rises.
As a result, only modest growth is forecast for Cairns, totaling four per cent over the three years to June 2021.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".
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Townsville housing market's downturn stabilises: BIS Oxford Economics

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A one per cent decline over the year in Perth’s median house price leaving it at an estimated $520,000 this June, according to a report released this week from BIS Oxford Economics.
This was the lowest since the market peaked in 2013/14.
Between June 2014 and June 2018, Perth’s median house price declined by 13 per cent.
The report notes that , in real terms the Perth median house price is 24 per cent below its peak in March 2007, which highlights the extent of the weakness in the Perth market over the past decade.
“House prices in the Perth market appear to be bottoming out,” said Angie Zigomanis, head of BIS Oxford Economics' residential research unit.
“The rate of price decline has slowed, net overseas migration inflows have returned to growth, while the interstate migration outflow has peaked and is now improving.”
Perth’s vacancy rate peaked at 7.1 per cent in June quarter 2017 and remains high at 5.1 per cent in March quarter 2018, well above the generally accepted balanced market rate of around three per cent.
According to the BIS oxford economists, rental prices have also collapsed with the median three-bedroom house rent, and median two-bedroom unit rent falling by 31 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, from their 2013 peaks.
As well as rising population growth, employment growth looks to have returned in 2017/18 after declines in the prior two years.
Successive years of price declines means that affordability has improved.
Nevertheless the report suggests that despite these positives, any recovery in the Perth market will be a long, slow, grind as the city has to work through a significant oversupply as well as a modest economic recovery.
As a result, minimal growth is forecast in 2018/19 and 2019/20, before some stronger growth emerges toward the end of the forecast period in 2020/21, with total growth in the median house price of ten per cent forecast in the three years to June 2021, or just keeping up with inflation.
A lower rise of five per cent is expected for the median unit price, or a three per cent real decline (factoring inflation).
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "<a href="/expert-insights/buying/melbourne-house-prices-forecast-to-tread-water-through-to-2020-21-bis">Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21</a>".
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Perth's decreasing housing prices doggedly slog towards improvement: BIS Oxford Economics

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Many factors have driven this upturn, culminating in growth totaling 35 per cent in a period of 3 years.
Resulting in the estimated median house price of $485,000 at June 2018, according to a report released this week by BIS Oxford Economics.
Population growth has accelerated as net interstate migration outflows became net inflows, with Hobart gaining the lion’s share of this reversal the economists found.
Vacancy rates are tight and were at a of low 1.4 per cent at December 2017.
Economic conditions have also strengthened, with the lower dollar in this period driving strong growth in export sectors such as tourism and agriculture.
“In previous periods of net interstate migration inflows, the population movement has come from the demographic of people over 50 looking to downsize and experience a ‘tree change’,” noted Angie Zigomanis head of BIS Oxford Economics' residential research unit.
“However, the current migration inflows largely comprise younger adults and families with children, suggesting people moving for Hobart’s affordability or expats coming back to raise a family.”
With Hobart still having lowest median house price of the state capitals, this suggests that prices remain affordable, although price growth is unlikely to be as strong as it has been, suggests this report.
This report forecasts that, the median house price in Hobart will rise by five per cent in 2018/19, although it will slow in subsequent years as rising supply begins to take some of the pressure off prices.
Total growth of eight per cent is forecast in the three yeas to June 2021, with a similar rise forecast for units given the overall tightness in the market.
This equates to flat prices in real terms, i.e. factoring inflation.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "<a href="/expert-insights/buying/melbourne-house-prices-forecast-to-tread-water-through-to-2020-21-bis">Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21</a>".
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Hobart housing price growth is unlikely to be as strong as it has been: BIS Oxford Economics

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Canberra’s median house price rose by 27 per cent in the past three years, however it is slowing to an estimated three per cent in 2017/18.
The median house price sits at $700,000 at June 2018.
BIS Oxford Economics released a report this week that estimates that the Canberra market is roughly in balance at June 2018, although a very tight vacancy rate of 0.7 per cent was recorded in March quarter 2018.
This report suggests that part of this tightness is as a result of the removal of around 1,000 asbestos-contaminated houses from the dwelling stock in recent years.
Median house rents have been rising over the past 2–3 years, and unit rental prices are now following.
“In contrast to the low vacancy rate, new dwelling completions have reached a record peak in 2017/18 and this is likely to have been a contributor to the slowdown in house price growth,” said Angie Zigomanis head of BIS Oxford Economics' Residential Research Unit.
“Completions in Canberra also on track to remain elevated and close to record levels in 2018/19.”
Continued high levels of supply are expected to continue to dampen upwards pressure on prices, although with the highest household income of Australia’s capital cities, affordability remains attractive.
The BIS Oxford Economists forecast that this will result in price growth of five per cent in 2018/19, but progressively slowing over the following two years as the recent surge in population reverts to longer term averages.
Canberra’s median house price is forecast to rise by a total 10 per cent in the three years to June 2020, which reflects a rise of three per cent in real terms.
In contrast, the unit sector, where there is more supply coming through, is forecast by this report, to experience price growth of only six per cent, which is actually a two per cent fall factoring for inflation.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "<a href="/expert-insights/buying/melbourne-house-prices-forecast-to-tread-water-through-to-2020-21-bis">Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21</a>".
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Canberra's median house prices stabilises after three year growth spurt: BIS Oxford Economics 

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Darwin’s median house price has now fallen by 19 per cent after peaking at $620,800 in June 2014, according to a report released this week by BIS Oxford Economics.
This has taken the median to an estimated $505,000 at June 2018 and the upturn to 2014 was driven by the ramp up in resource sector investment led by the Icthys LNG project.
However, construction work on this project has been winding down, while lower commodity prices have also seen other mining facilities mothballed.
“The boom in mining investment was accompanied by a boom in new dwelling construction,” said Angie Zigomanis, head of BIS Oxford Economics' Residential Research Unit
“However, dwellings were being completed as mining investment was retreating and population growth contracting, which in turn saw Darwin’s vacancy rate rise to a peak of 7.8 per cent in December quarter 2016.”
House price falls in Darwin are expected to have bottomed out in 2017/18 and although quarterly median house prices have still been patchy, it appears that the downward trend has at least stopped, noted the BIS Oxford Economics economists.
Nevertheless, the oversupply means house prices are forecast to remain flat in 2018/19, before limited growth comes through over the subsequent two years.
The collapse in new dwelling construction is expected to see excess stock steadily absorbed in this period.
The report forecasts that Darwin’s median house price is to rise by a total of only five per cent in the three years to June 2021, which will result in a real house price decline of three per cent over the period.
Unit prices have retreated further than house prices, with the median being 33 per cent off its peak at June 2018 reflecting the high level of unit supply that has been added to the market.
BIS Oxford economists forecasts are that unit price growth over 2018 to 2021 to be slightly lower than for houses at a total four per cent, or a four per cent decline in real terms.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "<a href="/expert-insights/buying/melbourne-house-prices-forecast-to-tread-water-through-to-2020-21-bis">Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21</a>".
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Downward Darwin housing market trend has stopped: BIS Oxford Economics

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The Wollongong residential market has experienced strong growth in recent years, over 20% greater than Newcastle.
Primarily because of its proximity to Sydney and the potential for the population commute to Sydney, where there is a larger variety of higher paying jobs, according to the latest report from BIS Oxford Economics.
Wollongong’s median house price is calculated to have risen by 68 per cent in the four years to June 2017, but growth has slowed down to around two per cent in 2017/18 in line with the slowdown in the Sydney market.
In contrast, median house price growth in Newcastle has lagged, having risen by an estimated 42 per cent in the four years to June 2017, although house price growth in 2017/18 has been stronger, at an estimated five per cent, the report noted.
The lower price growth in the Hunter Region reflects it being largely outside the orbit of Sydney from a commuting perspective, and weaker local employment conditions that have been impacted by falling coal investment.
The economists suggest, that the market appears to be tightening, with vacancy rates in the Hunter Region falling below two per cent since the last quarter of 2017.
"Both regions will start to show slowing price growth over the next three years, in line with the weaker Sydney market", the report forecasts.
"Starting from further behind, more upside is forecast for the Newcastle market, where the median house price is expected to rise by a total six per cent in the three years to June 2021."
In contrast, prices in Wollongong are expected to remain flat, with aggregate growth of one per cent in the three years to June 2021, the economists suggested.
Recent population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests that despite decreasing affordability in Sydney, there hasn’t been significant growth in migration into these regions from Sydney as yet.
However, if movements were to accelerate, there could be some upside to the price forecast for both markets, concluded the report.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".
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Newcastle and Wollongong's residential market growth to weaken in line with Sydney: BIS Oxford Economics

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Adelaide’s estimated median house price of $510,000 at June 2018 represents a four per cent increase for 2017/18, according to a report released this week from BIS Oxford Economics.
“With relatively soft economic conditions, prices in the Adelaide market appear to be responding to low interest rates,” said Angie Zigomanis head of BIS Oxford Economics' residential research unit.
“Net interstate migration outflows have improved slightly, although remain high, while new dwelling completions remain elevated."
Mr Zigomanis forecasts that “economic conditions in South Australia are to remain subdued in the short term."
"The unemployment rate for the state is above the national level, and a lull is expected as the economy responds to the shutdown of automotive manufacturing ahead of other future employment drivers such as ship building ramping up."
Affordability in Adelaide does not appear to be a constraint on the market and this will support prices.
Growth in net overseas migration inflows into South Australia is unlikely, although net interstate migration outflows are expected to slowly improve as the employment outlook eventually improves, the economists suggested.
Modest growth averaging three per cent per annum is forecast for 2020/21, beginning to accelerate into the final year of this outlook as the economic environment steadily improves.
In contrast, there has been a decline in median unit prices in 2017/18 in response to high levels of unit supply and a further decline is forecast in this report for 2018/19 before unit prices stabilise and improve in subsequent years, although still only display modest growth.
For a look at our take on the BIS Oxford Economics report for the national market check out, "Melbourne house prices forecast to tread water through to 2020/21".
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