Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens, rooftop open space and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Ceerose, founded by Edward Doueihi in 1998, has become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

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ANZ have revised their forecast for the housing markets and now see prices falling as much as 20 percent in Sydney and Melbourne.
They previously predicted 10 percent falls peak to trough on their <a href="/news/anz-revise-property-forecasts-and-see-10-percent-declines-in-sydney-and-melbourne">second forecast revision</a> back in June.
The ANZ said expect Sydney house prices to return to 2015 levels, with the current weakness <a href="/expert-insights/buying/prices-likely-to-remain-subdued-into-2020-anz-research">running through to 2020</a>.
They now forecast declines between 15 to 20 percent.
<div class="article__content">
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section"><img src="https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/1/8/8/e/l/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1542869601500.png" alt=" " width="620"></div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">Sydney and Melbourne had been proving more difficult to predict than the other capitals.</div>
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"Until recently, housing prices have been performing broadly as we expected," ANZ's economist Daniel Gradwell and Jo Masters said. 
"In fact, most capital cities are still tracking in line with our forecasts. 
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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
"Sydney and Melbourne, however, are not.
"We had expected by this stage to see some evidence that price declines in these cities were moderating, as the impact of credit tightening started to wind down.
"But price falls are continuing at a material pace and are broadening through most segments of these markets." 
The revisions for the Sydney and Melbourne outlook are now more in line with fellow economists.
CoreLogic-Moody Analytics however suggest Sydney house prices <a href="/news/sydney-house-values-to-grow-0-6-in-2019-corelogic-moody-s-analytics-australian-home-value-index-forecast">will grow 0.6 percent in 2019.</a>
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

ANZ revise forecast upwards to 20 percent house price declines in Sydney and Melbourne

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The ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott predicts the pace of home loan growth will slow by roughly half to an all-time low.
He says the "extraordinary" boom in mortgage debt over the past three decades will come to an end.
But Elliott forecast the rate of housing credit growth would "trend towards" 2 to 3%, compared with the 5 to 6% of recent times.
"We’ve had 30 years where home lending has grown, for most of that, double-digit every year, and more recently at 5-6%," he said.
"That’s an extraordinary market growth over a period of time, and we’ve all become used to it, we just don’t think that’s sustainable. We think that that will be much more subdued.
“The reasons are house prices are already high, households already carry reasonable levels of debt, so it’s hard for people to borrow even more. And remember what fuelled a lot of the ability of people to borrow has been lower interest rates.
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="1540981245653" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="1540981245653" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">“All of those things kind of conspire to say the outlook will be softer.”
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="1540981245653" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="1540981245653" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">Elliott said an average Australian household with an income of $110,000 could theoretically borrow up to about $550,000 three years ago, but this maximum had now fallen to $440,000 for the same household.
"The reason for that is all of the myriad of changes that banks and regulators have made around borrowing capacity," he said.
ANZ has cut its interest-only loans by close to two-fifths over the past 18 months.
But it faces a crunch over the next two years as the volume of expiring interest only (IO) loans peaks.
The third-largest home lender on Wednesday said it had cut interest only loans to 22% of its home loan mix in the September quarter.
It was 36% in the March quarter last year.
Loans to investors slipped to 32% from 34%.
WA, the mining-dependent state, represents the worst part of ANZ's home loan portfolio.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

ANZ faces crunch with property borrowers on interest only loans

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Commercial property confidence is at much more encouraging levels than its residential counterpart, according to the latest ANZ Property Council Survey.
The survey found that the gap in confidence between commercial and residential property has now reached record levels.
Despite this, commercial sentiment has also dropped.
The drop in sentiment in the most recent quarter occurred across all segments, although the retail segment is still the weakest.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%201.JPG" alt="">
Sluggish income growth, rising mortgage rates and utility costs and reduced wealth effects as house prices fall are all issues reducing the level of household consumption taking place.
Online retailing and global competition are also continuing to hinder domestic bricks and mortar retailers.
However, the industrial segment is now the most optimistic, displacing tourism.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%202.JPG" alt="">
Firms in the industrial industry report that the construction pipeline has increased further over the recent quarter, especially in New South Wales, while it remains elevated in Victoria and Queensland.
Danial Gradwell and David Plank, the authors of the report stated:
"The outlook for capital values is solid, which we think is consistent with demand coming from the strong pipeline of infrastructure projects coming through in those states.
"In addition, while online retailing is disrupting the retail sector, the storage and logistics requirements are supporting the industrial sector."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/AMP%20Capital%203.JPG" alt="">
"It is disappointing to see that survey respondents’ appraisal of the federal government has retreated considerably," the report said.
"While the September quarter showed a solid improvement in the government performance index (likely in response to the 2018-19 Budget), the subsequent leadership spill in August appears to have hindered confidence once more."
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Commercial property confidence is solid, for now: ANZ

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the December quarter shows that sentiment in Australia’s property sector has fallen sharply to the lowest level in two years. 
Sentiment in the residential segment has fallen to the lowest level since 2012.
NAB found the same results in their Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey, which prompted them to change their forecast to predict further losses.
Much like NAB's survey, ANZ-Property Council Survey found that bearing the brunt of the weaker confidence was New South Wales and Victoria.
They noted the decline was recorded across all states and territories. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/ANZ-Figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/11/ANZ-Figure1.jpg" alt="">
David Plank, ANZ head of Australian economics, said the downturn in the housing outlook is significant, although not surprising. 
"The survey supports our view that both house prices and residential construction are set for a period of decline," Plank said.
"The expectations of tighter credit availability and higher interest rates, if realised, will weigh on the housing market for some time.
"We think housing prices will nudge lower through to 2020, before stabilising through the remainder of that year," Plank suggested.
He said that they do not anticipate the scale of price declines accelerating, given that the economy and household finances are still generally in good shape.
ANZ expect housing construction to post material declines through 2019 and 2020.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/11/ANZ-figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/11/ANZ-figure2.jpg" alt="">
Ken Morrison, chief executive of Property Council of Australia, said that sentiment is softening in critical areas.
“This report shows that sentiment – while still positive – is softening in critical areas across an industry that is Australia’s biggest employer and supports 1.4 million jobs,” Morrison said.
“This shift in sentiment needs to be on the radar of policy makers because now more than ever we need strong investment, tax and planning regimes to keep the economy strong.” 
The outlook for construction and prices has worsened, and firms expect a double whammy of tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates over the next year. Demand from foreign buyers is still falling.
There was good news for the commercial property segment, where sentiment is much better.
"Although posting a small decline in the December quarter, confidence is still sitting at strong levels," the report read.
"The tourism, industrial and office property sectors report a solid outlook, although the retail sector is still challenged."
The ANZ/Property Council survey is based on responses from more than 900 property industry participants. The survey was conducted between 3-19 September 2018.   
 
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Sentiment drops further as house prices to decline until 2020: ANZ-Property Council

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The housing market remains weak, and many key indicators are around the worst levels in a number of years. However, the downturn is still tracking in line with our previous forecasts, and our outlook is relatively unchanged. 
We still anticipate prices will keep falling through 2018 and 2019, and we have extended our forecast into 2020, where prices are likely to remain subdued.
Nationwide, we continue to expect prices to fall around 4% in 2018 and 2% in 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/27/state-forecast.jpg" alt=""></a>
 
We have extended our forecast to 2020, and we think prices will end that year flat from a year ago. We still expect Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall around 10% peak to trough, while other markets will perform better.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/27/house-prices.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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 A number of headwinds will continue to weigh on the market, including further credit tightening, out of cycle rate increases, and eventual RBA rate hikes. But despite these challenges, the risks around financial stability have not worsened to date.
Credit availability, or the lack thereof, is also an issue for housing construction. 
The current round of projects is already locked in, with a record level of investment in progress. But we have concerns over the next round of projects, and expect to see construction fall steadily through 2019 and 2020.
Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters are economists at ANZ.
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Prices likely to remain subdued into 2020: ANZ Research

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ANZ have announced a new gauge for looking at dwelling prices in Australia using Google search trends.
The ANZ Housing Search Index looks at search terms such as “stamp duties”, “mortgage loan comparison”, “auctions today” and “moving company” to look at market sentiment.
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The information is available through Google Trends, which has been operating since January 2014.
It claims that “significant research has shown that this data may correlate with the levels of economic activity in given industries, and thus may be helpful in predicting macro indicators”.
“The (year on year) change in the index can track annual shifts in housing prices, three months in advance.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/8/FIGURE%202.jpg" alt="">
ANZ say that it plans to use the tool as an additional information point to assist in its analysis.
It claims that the index is already providing potentially useful information.
“The index suggests Australia’s house prices may stabilise later this year, consistent with the message sent by auction clearance rates,” the report said.  
“It is early days, however, so we aren’t getting too carried away with the signal.”
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New ANZ tool analyses Google searches for housing market sentiment 

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ANZ has cut owner-occupier principal and interest rates on its basic home loan, bringing the rate down by 34 basis points to 3.65 per cent.
ANZ has also cut some of its fixed home loan rates by up to 24 basis points for owner-occupier principal and interest and up to 13 basis points for investor principal and interest loans.
This follows similar loan rate cuts from Commonwealth Bank earlier this week.
According to the latest Canstar data 10 different institutions made rate changes to their home loan products, with a total of 58 product level changes recorded.
Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity.com.au, said it was a surprising move from ANZ to buck the rate-hike trend.
"This is now the lowest ongoing variable rate offered by a Big Four bank," she said. 
“It shows that the bank is competing hard to get new customers as non-banks threaten their market share."
“This comes at a time when the market was expecting ANZ to hike rates and not cut them and the Royal Commission has turned the playing field on its head,” she concluded.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/3/Canstar%201.JPG" alt="">
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ANZ now offers the lowest ongoing variable home loan rate among Big Four

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The value of Australian housing finance commitments rose slightly in May, but not by enough to offset recent weakness.
The value of monthly approvals is more than five per cent lower than a year ago. Investors are the main driver of this weakness, edging down another 0.1% m/m, while the owner-occupier segment is performing better (+0.8% m/m). 
The fall in investor demand is clearly related to APRA’s macroprudential policies.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-1.JPG" alt="">
In 2015, the 10% speed limit on investor borrowing saw a sharp drop in the presence of investors, and the subsequent limit on interest only loans in 2017 has had a similar impact.
Even the removal of the 10% growth limit, announced at the end of April 2018, is unlikely to drive renewed strength.
As a result, the share of new lending going toward investors is at the lowest level in several years. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-2.JPG" alt="">
The fall in investor borrowing is also seen in finance for the construction and purchase of new dwellings, which continues to fall.
This provides further evidence that we have moved past the peak in building approvals.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/11/ANZ-3.JPG" alt="">
A central feature of our view on the housing market is that credit conditions continue to tighten through the remainder of 2018.
This is expected to result in further weakness in housing finance going forward, which will in turn weigh on housing prices and building approvals.
Daniel Gradwell is a Senior Economist at ANZ Research
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Australian housing finance up in April, unlikely to be sustained: Daniel Gradwell

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The May building approvals data support ANZ's view that the peak in new housing approvals has past.
Weak housing finance results and the ongoing tightening of credit availability are likely to see approvals continue to ease.
From an investment point of view, the backlog of work will keep activity elevated over the near term, but construction is expected to fall through the end of this year and 2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20Past%20Peak%20Approval.JPG" alt="">
Australian residential building approvals were slightly weaker than market expectations in May, falling 3%, after a 5% decline in the previous month.
Queensland was the main driver of this weakness.
Apartment approvals in the state fell 35%, to the lowest level in four years.
The historically stable segment of detached houses saw a 20% fall in approvals.
While these falls follow quite strong results in the last two months, the 2,700 dwellings approved in Queensland in May is the weakest monthly result since June 2013.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20Detached%20House.JPG" alt="">
Detached house approvals also recorded a significant decline in Victoria, down 10%.
However, strength in the unit/apartment segment (+15% m/m) meant that Victorian approvals were overall unchanged.
These results are consistent with ANZ's view that Australia is past the peak in housing approvals.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20weak%20housing%20finance.JPG" alt="">
Looking forward, the decline in housing finance for the construction and purchase of new dwellings suggests that building approvals will continue to trend lower.
The tighter credit environment appears to be impacting the construction side, as well as prices, but a large backlog of work will support investment in the near term.
Daniel Gradwell is the senior economist for <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/">ANZ</a>.
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New housing approvals past peak with further weakness likely: ANZ

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Weakness in Australia’s housing market has persisted longer than we expected. We have revised our forecasts and now expect to see peak-to-trough price declines of around 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, with smaller declines elsewhere.
This doesn’t derail Australia’s economic outlook. The weaker housing market reflects a regulatory induced tightening in the supply of credit rather than tighter monetary policy. We think, as a result, that the impact on the economy will be a less pervasive. There are also offsets to the weaker housing market. For instance, we revised up our outlook for wages in the very near term, and larger-than-expected tax cuts are a positive development. 
We think for 2018 GDP growth will stay around the 3% level reached in Q1. We expect similar growth in 2019, before a slowdown in government spending, investment and net exports sees growth drop to around 2.5% in 2020. 
Growth in the order of 3% for this year and next is expected to push the unemployment rate down to 5% by the end of 2019. In turn this tighter labour market supports higher wage growth. The lift in wages helps the outlook for inflation, with core inflation lifting to 2.3% y/y by the end of 2020. 
Falling unemployment and rising wages would allow the RBA to conclude that sufficient progress is being made toward the mid-point of the inflation target, which may prompt it to reduce monetary accommodation in 2019. Previously, we expected the RBA to tighten in May 2019. Our weaker house price outlook makes this timing challenging. While the RBA does not specifically target house prices, we think it will be reluctant to start tightening policy if house prices are still falling. Hence we have pushed the first hike to August to allow more time for stability to emerge, with another to follow in November and then for the cash rate to sit at 2% in 2020. 
Obvious downside risks to our outlook come from: the threats to global trade, the possibility that house prices fall by more than we expect and/or that they have a more negative impact than we assume. An upside risk could be a much lower-than-assumed AUD, as the RBA lags the Fed further.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/19/figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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HOUSE PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TIMING OF OUR RBA CALL 
The housing market is weaker than we expected. Instead of prices stabilising in the first half of 2018 they have continued to decline. As a consequence we now expect to see peak- to-trough price declines of around 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, with smaller declines elsewhere (Figure 2). See our June Housing Chartpack for our revised outlook. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/19/figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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A weaker housing outlook affects our outlook for household spending. We think there are offsets, like a slightly firmer outlook for wages and more generous tax cuts than we had factored into our last forecast update. Overall our projections for GDP, employment and inflation are broadly similar to the last update despite the weaker track for house prices. 
This also reflects the fact that the source of house price weakness is a regulatory induced tightening in the supply of credit rather than one triggered by RBA rate hikes. We think this has a less pervasive impact on the economy than falling house prices brought about by higher interest rates would have. Not least because much of the impact of tighter credit supply is centred on Sydney and Melbourne rather than being country wide. 
We do, however, think the housing market’s path will influence the RBA’s policy deliberations. We think that our expectations – a decline in unemployment toward 5%, a gradual acceleration in wages and a lift in core inflation above 2% – support the case for a higher cash rate at some point. But the weaker outlook for housing will also matter, in our view. While the RBA doesn’t focus on house prices specifically, we doubt it will be comfortable tightening if house prices are still falling as that would add to the downside risks for the economy at a time when the inflation outlook doesn’t require an aggressive approach. We think the RBA will want to be confident that the housing market is stable before it raises the cost of debt. 
Our updated forecasts show house prices falling until the end of 2018 and then stabilising in the first half of 2019. It is possible that, by May, sufficient evidence of stability will be in place. A rate hike could take place then, as we previously expected. 
We now think it more likely, though, that the RBA will wait a little longer before tightening, not only to ensure that the housing market has stabilised but also to ensure that the unemployment rate gets closer to 5%. As such, we have shifted the timing of the first rate hike to August 2019, with a second hike in November. This also gets us well past a possible May election. The lift in the cost of debt triggers a further modest weakening in the housing market. The RBA is then expected to keep the cash rate at 2% through 2020.
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SOLID GDP GROWTH STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 
We have updated our GDP forecasts in the light of several factors, specifically our revised outlook for the housing market and the release of the Q1 GDP data. But also taking account of the policy measures announced in the May Commonwealth Budget, most notably the bigger tax cuts than we expected in our March forecast. The forecast horizon has also been extended out to 2020. We still expect solid growth this year and next, looking for around 3% in each year (Figure 3). We anticipate slower growth of 2.5% in 2020, as growth in public sector spending slows and the contribution from net exports turns negative.
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Our forecasts for the household sector are largely unchanged from our last update, despite weaker house prices. Consumption is likely to grow relatively modestly, given the constraints of low wage growth, high debt and now falling house prices. Slightly higher wages and bigger tax cuts than we expected provide offsets to the weakness in house prices. The outlook for housing investment is also likely to be subdued, with activity likely to eke out one more quarter of expansion, before gradually declining through H2 2018 and 2019 in response to lower approvals and higher interest rates in 2019. In 2020 we expect activity to stabilise, with a stable cash rate and ongoing solid population growth helping to support demand. 
The outlook for private investment remains positive, and we continue to expect robust growth over the next few years. Surveys continue to suggest that firms are planning to expand capex and that capacity utilisation rates are high, with businesses reporting that they are bumping up against premises and plant limitations. We have, however, shaved our forecasts a little given heightened global uncertainty, particularly on the trade front, a modest downgrade to investment plans in the Capex Survey and recent weakness in non- residential building approvals. Overall though, the outlook remains good, and we expect business investment to be a key support to GDP growth over the next few years. 
Another key support to growth will come from the public sector. The pipeline of infrastructure spending suggests that activity will continue to expand this year and next, although we see 2019 as the peak and expect activity to flatten out in 2020. Public consumption is set to continue to grow strongly with the ongoing roll-out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) supporting spending (Figure 4). Overall, public demand should continue to punch above its weight in terms of its contribution to GDP growth over the next few years. 
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LNG is likely to be a key driver of the 0.6ppt contribution from net exports over the year to December 2018. We expect the 2019 contribution to be smaller and net exports to turn negative in 2020. Solid export growth and elevated commodity prices should help to support profit growth. 
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We continue to expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2% by the end of this year and then reach 5% by the end of 2019 (Figure 5). Ongoing solid growth should help to erode spare capacity through 2020, pushing the unemployment rate below the key 5% level. 
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Wages growth is likely to remain subdued, although we have actually lifted our near term forecasts a touch. The recent improvement in the Wage Price Index (including bonuses) suggests that an increase in the difficulty of finding suitable labour is pushing businesses to lift pay to attract workers (Figure 6). This should eventually feed through into the headline measure. Moreover, the Fair Work Commission has just announced another larger-than- usual increase in the minimum wage of 3.5%, to start on 1 July. Given ongoing spare capacity in the labour market, however, the improvement in wage growth is expected to be gradual, with y/y growth in the Wage Price Index lifting to 2.4%, 2.6% and 2.9% by end- 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. 
The slight improvement in wages seen to date has translated to a lift in household income growth. The 1.1% real annual growth is far off the low of -0.2% recorded in Q2 2017, however it remains well below consumption growth of 2.9%. Consequently, the household saving rate continues to fall. It is now only just above 2% – the lowest rate since the financial crisis.
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We expect household income to lift in coming years, allowing spending growth to broadly maintain the pace of the past few years without the need for further declines in the saving rate (Figure 7). If we are wrong, and income growth fails to recover, the low level of the saving rate will limit households’ capacity to maintain the recent spending pace.
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While the outlook for household incomes and spending continues to be the key domestic downside risk to our forecasts, increasing global trade tensions have now raised the risks around the external sector. Clearly the evolution of trade discussions and geopolitical issues will have an important influence on Australia’s economy, given its large trade exposure. Any disappointment on this front has the potential to flow through to the business investment outlook, crimping a key driver of the current recovery. 
NEAR-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK A TOUCH HIGHER 
We have nudged our near–term inflation forecasts higher, although we continue to expect only a very gradual acceleration in inflationary pressures. We now expect core inflation to hit 2% y/y in Q3 2018 – previously Q4 2018 – which partly reflects base effects from the solid 0.5% q/q result in Q1 2018. 
Looking forward, our forecast for core inflation at the end of 2019 is unchanged, at 2.1% y/y, as wage growth accelerates only slowly and retail price deflation continues. Our profile for headline CPI is somewhat higher, largely reflecting our expectation that petrol prices will provide a significant boost over the remainder of this year. We now see headline CPI accelerating to 2.3% y/y by December 2018 (up from a previous forecast of 2.0% y/y). In annual average terms, we expect headline CPI to rise by 2.2% in both 2018 and 2019 (Figure 8, below). 
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David Plank is head of Australian economics at ANZ.
 
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