A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

2019 Property Price Forecast

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The downturn in Sydney’s housing market has been the most pronounced of any capital city in 2018 after it enjoyed the strongest runup in recent years, according to Moody's Analytics latest report
The report found that, house values were down by 7.8% year over year in November, and Moody’s Analytics forecasts further falls in 2019.
Average Sydney home values have fallen 10.1% since their most recent 2017 peak, overtaking the prior peak-to-trough fall of 9.6% notched from 1989 to 1991.
However home values in Sydney remain around 60% higher than they were in 2012.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/14/NSW%20Forecast.JPG" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne contain approximately 40% of Australian homes and represent approximately 60% of Australia’s housing wealth.
Housing completions for metropolitan Sydney came in at a record high in the year to September, according to New South Wales Housing Monitor.
Meanwhile, building approvals for Greater Sydney were broadly flat against a year earlier, according to the ABS.
Westpac’s consumer sentiment survey suggests that households have adjusted to a new medium-term norm, with only 10% of respondents in the December survey indicating that real estate is the wisest place for savings, the lowest result since 1974.
The authors noted, "a high level of supply has now come on line for apartments in the inner city and surrounding areas as well as dwellings in suburban areas via land releases and removal of some development restrictions. This will contribute to the forecast slowdown in 2018 and 2019."
"House values in the City and Inner South area are forecast to fall further in 2019 following a sharp decline in 2018."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%205.JPG" alt="">
"The Inner West, which is expected to fall further in 2018, leads the way."
"The Eastern Suburbs and North Sydney are set for an entrenched slump; values are unlikely to recover before 2021," according to the report authors.
By 2020, the correction is forecast to have largely passed, but house value growth will be far from the lofty gains of recent years. Housing values are forecast to rise modestly in 2020. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%206.JPG" alt="">
The report forecasts house values in the Central Coast will escape the correction that has engulfed much of Greater Sydney in 2018 and will rise modestly in 2019, building on a 12.5% gain in 2017.
Home values rose 13% in the Outer West and Blue Mountains in 2017, although the housing market has since cooled.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%207.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney's apartment price downtown to turnaround in 2019: Moody's Analytics

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The latest realestate.com.au data shows Surfers Paradise topped the Gold Coast's list of most searched suburbs on the property website.
House hunters searched it 267,709 times in the period from January to November last year.
Southport came in second with 221,455 searches followed by Burleigh Heads (216,466), Broadbeach (211,355) and Palm Beach (194,176).
location and affordability made the suburb so popular.
“I would say we’re the most affordable beachside suburb not only in Queensland but Australia,” Mrs Keegan said.
She said some apartments were listed for as little as $300,000 and with cafes, restaurants and the beach so close, people could not go past it.
“I’d probably say mainly apartments (were searched) because most people would have that postcard picture of Surfers Paradise in their minds,” she said.
“Tourism here is the strongest it’s ever been and I can’t see it slowing down.”
Ray White Prestige Gold Coast agent Sherry Smith believed interstate buyers were driving demand in Surfers Paradise because lifestyle and prices were attracting them.
An example of an apartment in the $300,000 range is 1/34 Monaco Street, Surfers Paradise (pictured above).
Set on 577 sqm, the two bedroom one bathroom apartment sold for $340,000.
Built in 1974 the unit last sold in 2016 for $312,500.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/17/Surfers%20paradise%202.JPG" alt="">
Another example of this price range in Surfers Paradise is 3/7 View Avenue (pictured above).
The two bedroom one bathroom apartment sold for $295,000 in late December.
Featuring a balcony with glimpses of the water, the fully renovated East facing unit is only meters from the beach. 
She said Southport was popular because it was attracting investors and families wanting to be close to schools.
Lambert Willcox Estate Agents director Mitchell Lambert said the suburb was not always highly sought-after but the popularity of renovations had attracted people to older properties in need of work.
“We’re still selling houses for record prices and they haven’t stopped going up, and why not? It’s a great area,” he said.
TOP 10 MOST SEARCHED SUBURBS (number searched Jan-Nov 2018) 
1. Surfers Paradise — 267,709
2. Southport — 221,455
3. Burleigh Heads — 216,466
4. Broadbeach — 211,355
5. Palm Beach — 194,176
6. Robina — 172,518
7. Hope Island — 162,494
8. Helensvale — 160,887
9. Coolangatta — 139,902
10. Labrador — 124,319
(Source: realestate.com.au)
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Surfers Paradise the most searched Gold Coast location in 2018 on realestate.com.au

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The Australia Capital Territory’s residential real estate market held up well in 2018, with house and unit values rising moderately year over year, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
However the report found that growth in house and unit values has turned down noticeably since late 2017, approaching lows not seen in close to two years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/17/ACT%20home%20values%202017-2020.JPG" alt="">
Auction clearance rates have declined to around 40%, well below year-ago levels, while growth of housing finance commitments in the ACT has been trending lower, suggesting demand is cooling.
The report authors said, the ACT economy moderated in the September quarter, with growth of state final demand slowing to 0.9% quarter over quarter, down from 2.4% in the June quarter, as household consumption was flat and government consumption fell.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
"Investment, however, was strong, driven by robust construction."
"The ACT’s population grew by 2.2% in the year ended 2017, the biggest rise since 2012, driven by record net overseas migration," according to the authors.
ACT house values are forecast to rise 6.1% in 2019 following ongoing strength in the labour market and population growth.
In 2020 however a slowdown is forecast with house price growth slated for 4.8%.
Unit values are forecast to rise 3.3% in 2019 off the back of 2.9% growth in 2018.
Growth in unit values is set to increase in 2020 however reaching 4.6%.
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The house market in ACT is forecast to grow 6% in 2019: Moody's Analytics

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Fitch Ratings has predicted Australian house prices will fall by a further five per cent in 2019, driven by reduced affordability and restricted credit access.
“Australian borrowers continue to be vulnerable to financial shocks,” Fitch analyst Ben McCarthy said.
The ratings agency said it expected prices to stabilise in 2020. 
The drop in house prices in Australia this year will be the worst in the world, one of the world’s major credit rating agencies predicted.
The Fitch Ratings report released on Wednesday predicted Australia’s housing industry would be the worst performer out of 24 countries for the second year running. 
Prices have already dropped by 6.7 per cent since their peak and Fitch said this was mostly due to lower investor demand thanks to tougher restrictions on lending. 
Fitch noted that high household debt made economies more vulnerable to shocks in the financial sector and borrowers more exposed to downturns given very high household debt level.
It was calculated as the highest in the report relative to GDP at about 120 per cent.
Fitch predicts house prices will stabilise by 2020 due to above-trend GDP growth and strong net migration.
In Sydney and Melbourne, where larger peak-to-trough falls of 11.1 per cent and 7.2 per cent have occurred, Fitch expects price declines to continue at a similar pace.
It notes that the most expensive properties have experienced the largest declines of 9.5 per cent.
Fitch has also warned Australians could struggle to keep up with their mortgage payments as house prices fall and it takes longer to sell a property.
 
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Fitch Ratings see no Australian house price recovery until 2020

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The Melbourne residential market has experienced years of unprecedented growth that saw prices peak in November 2017.
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Now, after decades of rapid price hikes, the market is starting to self-correct to a level more traditionally akin to a ‘normal’ market, with organic ebbs and flows. 
David Kobritz, executive chairman of Dealcorp, said the housing market in Melbourne has always come back stronger after downturns.
“Melbourne’s property market has experienced four significant downturns in the past 30 years and they have all been as a result of tightened credit conditions, whether at the instigation of banks themselves or through government/regulator intervention," Kobritz said.
"Every time the housing market comes back stronger due to the release of pent up demand and ongoing population growth; What is happening now is part of the natural property cycle in Australia, every eight – 10 years we go through a downturn, but we always recover quickly when common sense prevails.”
Kobritz suggested the fundamentals in the market remain strong, particularly around low vacancy rates, population growth, increasing cost of construction and foreign buyers with a strong appetite to purchase.
"I think we are at or close to the bottom of this downturn/cycle and we should return to strong growth in the medium term, especially as the supply side will reduce significantly over the next few years.”
He said the heat has been taken out of the market and will return to more normalised conditions.
“The economy relies on a strong property and construction market and I would expect that some of the restrictions and disincentives imposed by governments and regulators will begin to ease in 2019.”
Luke Hartman, managing director of Metro Property, said it won't take long for markets to recover, and believes those that are brave enough to buy property when there is weakness in the market are those that will prosper the most.
“We’ve seen this happen all before; any time there is uncertainty about the property sector, particularly around an election, buyers will sit on their hands and wait to see what happens next," he said.
"It causes the market to stagnate and drives prices down, the irony of which is that it makes it the perfect time to buy.” 
“Markets do recover, and I don’t think it will take long. 
"Next year we will have much more certainty on the direction the market is going following the results of the Royal Banking Commission and the federal election. 
"Once that happens, I think the market will bounce right back up. There is currently a very small window of opportunity that exists for buyers in the market before that happens.” 
"There’s less buyers to compete with, properties are better value and when the market inevitably picks back up again they will see their investment pay off with significant capital gain.”
Elias Jreissati, group chairman at Bensons Property Group, said the extent of the current softening is highly exaggerated and sensationalised.
"The Melbourne housing sector had very strong growth for nearly 10 years, it is natural that there will be a slowdown for a while," he advised. 
“The fundamental driver of housing is population growth and it continues unabated. Overseas immigration is still strong, people are still growing up and wanting to move out of home, downsizers are still wanting to downsize and people wanting to own their own home still aspire to do so. These facts never change.
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"With the mad heat having dissipated from the market, there should be more quality stock available for the discerning purchasers. The thing with property is that if you own it for the long term, it always forgives you and profits you.” 
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Leonard Teplin, director of Marshall White Projects, said there will always be demand for well-designed apartment developments. He said the office average sale price of an off-the-plan apartment rose to $963,000 over 2018.
“The apartment market for off-the-plan remains consistent, with enquiry meeting demand through most of 2018 within strong areas of Melbourne," he said.
"Given the relative affordability of finance for couples, these buyers are happy to invest more, move to stronger areas or purchase bigger apartments.
“There will always be demand for well-designed and appointed projects within good locations, close to amenities and infrastructure offering carefully considered floorplans that cater to the end buyer’s needs.
"These basic fundamentals have buoyed Melbourne’s property market and continue to get stronger.” 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Now is the time to buy in Melbourne: What the experts say

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Home prices slid in 2018, in some places by quite a lot.
According to the widely-used <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">Corelogic Hedonic Home Value Index</a>, home prices were down 4.8% across the nation in 2018. Sydney was particularly hard hit, down 8.9% and prices in Melbourne slipped 7.0%. Hobart was a bright spot, but an exception, up 8.7%.
You might be dying to ask what “hedonic” means. The word relates to pleasure, in this case the pleasure of owning a home.
<h2>Hedonic. It’s how we compare like with like</h2>
In earlier times monthly house price moves were calculated by comparing the average price of houses sold in one month with the average price of houses sold in the previous month.
But what if the “pleasure” that was sold in that month was different from the pleasure that was sold the previous month? What if, for example, in December mainly good five-bedroom mansions in good suburbs were sold, whereas in January it was mainly one bedroom dumps located where people didn’t want to live? The average recorded price would go down even if the price of individual houses had not.
The hedonic index gets around this by comparing <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/rp-data-corelogic-home-value-index-methodology" target="_blank">like with like</a> - the price of three-bedroom homes in a middle ranking suburb with the price of three-bedroom homes in the same middle ranking suburb and so on. It’s made up of a lot of indexes combined, and is unaffected by the mix of properties that happen to be sold in any particular month.
The results are not good news for current home owners, but they are worth putting into perspective.
<h2>How far back do you want to go?</h2>
In Melbourne prices are down 7.2% from their peak, but they are no lower than they were as recently as February 2017. In Sydney, prices are no lower than they were in August 2016 according to Corelogic.
So, should we focus on the latest very recent drop in prices, or the incredibly strong growth over the previous 20 years?
The following chart from Corelogic’s Head of Research Tim Lawless demonstrates that long-run growth in Sydney, as well as the fact there have been pretty significant short-run dips along the way.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/11/HOLDEN.jpg" alt="">
The most obvious point to make is that if you bought recently then the current price drops hurt. If you had a 20% deposit, the latest falls in Sydney and Melbourne have wiped out about half of your starting equity; more if you factor in stamp duty and moving costs.
If you bought a longer time ago, you might feel the sting of the latest price slide just a touch, but you are still well ahead.
So from a personal perspective, it’s natural that some people will care a lot about what’s happened, and others won’t much mind.
<h2>What’ll it mean for the economy?</h2>
The biggest concern is the so-called “wealth effect”.
When home prices fall, homeowners feel (and are) poorer.
It affects how much they are prepared to spend, although as the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/pdf/rdp2015-08.pdf" target="_blank">Reserve Bank and others have pointed out</a> the size of the effect remains unclear.
But it might be bigger than you think. Many of us aren’t rational. We have <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Emd3405/RD_lecture_1_handout.pdf" target="_blank">“reference points”</a>. If, because of the barrage of media reports at the time, we use the start of 2018 (the top of the market) as our reference point, then even those of us who have owned properties for a long time will feel poorer. And because of that, we might spend less.
Since private spending <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/household-final-consumption-expenditure-etc-percent-of-gdp-wb-data" target="_blank">accounts for well over half of Australia’s gross domestic product</a>, spending less can have a big effect.
<h2>What’ll it mean for the banks?</h2>
Australia’s big four banks are the biggest lenders to residential property owners and are among the biggest companies in Australia.
Could the slide in property prices put them in jeopardy?
If a few homebuyers had a 20% deposit and suffered at most maybe a 15% fall in prices, there isn’t a problem, right?
That view is basically correct – except when it’s not.
Some lenders have been bulking up loans to borrowers who earlier took out, say, A$600,000. When their homes came to be worth, say, $1.5 million they lent them more - boosting their loans by most of the extra value.
The practice calls into question the view that only a small number of the most recent buyers are highly leveraged. Many more folks could be – but without the loan-level data that the banks have, we don’t know.
<h2>Is 2018 a good predictor of 2019?</h2>
At the heart of all of these questions is whether the 2018 price falls are likely to continue, which would mean them getting much bigger.
That depends on what caused them.
A key part of it was that banks (at least the big four) lent less than they used to. With less money borrowed, there was less money to bid up prices.
As I have noted before, Australian banks were arguably lending too much; about 25% more than US banks to equivalent borrowers.
Post Royal Commission, that’s changed. As has been widely discussed, banks are now looking at borrower’s expenses much more carefully. Too carefully, according to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg who has <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/josh-frydenberg-tells-banks-to-ease-up-on-lending-crackdown-20181109-h17q2g" target="_blank">called on them to lend more</a>.
The important point is that if there has been a one-off adjustment in the borrowing capacity of Australians, then the price falls should stop fairly soon: predictions of more modest falls in 2019 followed by a reset and uptick in 2020 mightn’t be too far off the mark.
If so, the short-term slide will remain for most people, just that.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-so-far-its-more-of-a-house-price-blip-than-a-bust-in-the-making-109568" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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It’s more of a house price blip than a bust in the making: Richard Holden

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House rents in Sydney have declined annually for the first time in more than 12 years and are now back to 2016 levels, according to the latest research released by Domain.
They found that house rents declined 1.8 per cent over the quarter and the year to $540 per week, while rental yields increased 0.9 per cent over the quarter and 4.2 per cent over the year to 3.24 per cent. 
Unit rents declined 2.8 per cent over the quarter to $530 per week and rental yields increased 0.1 per cent over the quarter and 1.7 per cent over the year to 3.87 per cent. 
For the first time since 2004 unit rents have fallen for two consecutive quarters.
The cost of renting a unit is now at 2017 levels.
For the first time in 11 years the cost of renting a house in Canberra is now higher than Sydney, according to the latest data from Domain.
The difference in weekly house rents between Canberra and Sydney has jumped to $20.
Canberra house rents increased 1.8 per cent over the quarter and 3.7 per cent over the year to $560 per week, while rental yields improved 1.4 per cent over the quarter and 0.6 per cent over the year to 4.36 per cent. 
Unit rents increased 3.3 per cent over the quarter and 8.1 per cent over the year to $465 per week.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/9/Domain%20Rent%20Syd.JPG" alt=""> Domain research analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said available rental stock continued to increased over the year, with development completions adding to the pipeline of supply.
"We expect rental supply to increase further in 2019, putting tenants in the driver’s seat. Tenants will find greater bargaining power as rising supply keeps pressure on rents, providing strong grounds to negotiate lease terms. Landlords will be keen to retain good tenants as leases expire, with incentives and rental discounts a realistic prospect.” “Gross yields are nearing a two-year high, suggesting rental prices are holding firmer than property values. Despite improved yields, we expect many investors will look to other capital city markets in 2019, with the prospect of short-term capital gains unlikely.
"This could serve to tighten rental supply over the long term. However, slowing interstate and overseas migration could offset this impact,” she concluded.
Melbourne house and unit rental prices continue to rise, with both achieving new record highs, according to the latest research from Domain.
Domain found, Melbourne house rents increased 2.3 per cent over the quarter and 3.5 per cent over the year to $440 per week, while rental yields improved 1.4 per cent over the quarter and 4.4 per cent over the year to 3.20 per cent. 
Available Brisbane rental stock has been sliding since the end of 2017, and is now at a three and a half year low, according to the latest research from Domain.
House rents increased 2.5 per cent over the quarter and year to $410 per week, while rental yields declined 0.3 per cent over the quarter but increased 1 per cent over the year to 4.62 per cent. 
Brisbane unit rents increased 1.3 per cent over the quarter and 2.7 per cent over the year to $380 per week.
However, rental yields declined 0.2 per cent over the quarter but improved 3.7 per cent over the year to 5.12 per cent.
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“If rental stock keeps shrinking, greater competition between tenants will emerge, putting further upward pressure on rental prices, a marked change given the prolonged period of stability," Domain research analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said.
"House and unit rents are already displaying a higher pace of growth relative to last year, with houses recording the first positive movement and units the strongest gain on an annual basis in roughly three years.”
“Population growth in the sunshine state has been driven in fairly equal measure by natural increases, interstate migration and overseas migration. Queensland is the only state or territory to have such balance, which has helped to support a broad-based demand for housing. Job prospects, an improving economy and greater housing affordability continues to lure residents from NSW and Victoria.”
“Given property prices have fallen in Sydney and Melbourne, investors have already started to find Brisbane a more attractive option as they seek better yields and growth potential. Investors will be further enticed north as rental prices and gross yields continue to improve,” she concluded.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/9/Domain%20Rent%20Bris.JPG" alt="">
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Sydney no longer the nation’s most expensive capital city to rent a house: Domain

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South Australia’s housing market is forecast to remain relatively subdued with slow but steady growth, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics have forecast housing values will pick up slightly in 2019, while apartment values will likely be weak off the back of a slow 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/Adelaide%201.JPG" alt="">
Greater Adelaide is expected to see sustained housing growth of 2.6% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, a small improvement on 2018, while apartments are forecast to see subdued growth as in the trend of previous years.
The Central and Hills region of Adelaide is forecast to see housing growth of 2.5% in 2019 in line with greater Adelaide and slightly less growth in 2020, while apartments are expected to stabilise after making a small loss last year of -0.8%.
Adelaide North is forecast to have greater growth in 2020 than in 2019 reaching 4.6% an improvement on its previous performance, while apartments are forecast to continue a small downward trend in 2019 and 2020.
The Southern Adelaide region is forecast to have the strongest housing growth in Adelaide growing 3.7% in 2019 and 4.9% in 2020, while apartments are forecast to have slow growth in 2019 of 1.4% and the strongest apartment growth of any SA region in 2020 at 3.9%.
Western Adelaide is forecast to see small growth in housing prices in 2019 and 2020 of 2% and 2.9% respectively, while apartments are expected to have a strong 2019 with growth of 3% lower than their 2018 growth of 4.5% before slumping to a loss in of 2.9% in 2020.
The rest of SA is expected to be continued a trend of home price weakness in 2019 with a loss of -0.6% forecast by Moody's Analytics, however in 2020 a recovery has been predicted with growth pegged at 4.2%.
Barossa, Yorke, and Mid North SA are predicted to experience weakening house prices in 2019 before experiencing a pick up in 2020 of 3.4%, after experiencing price growth in 2017 and 2018.
The Outback region of SA is forecast to see price falls of -10.2 throughout 2019 continuing a trend of price falls before bouncing back in 2020 to grow 5.6%.
South East SA is forecast to have consistent price growth in 2019 (3.9%) and 2020 (4.1%) after seeing a reduction of -0.6% last year. 
The report authors note, "although low population growth has dampened home values, a recovery in employment growth, coupled with increased incomes over the next few years, could result in pockets of South Australia outperforming the rest of the state."
The dwelling market in Adelaide-North is likely to remain mixed with house values expected to accelerate while apartment values remain subdued.
Overall, population growth has supported home values; nearly 50% of the total population gain in Adelaide has been in Adelaide-North in 2016-2017.
However population growth is expected to moderate.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/Adelaide%203.JPG" alt="">
The report said, "the Adelaide-Central and Hills region enjoyed a strong run in 2017, but values have slowed in 2018, and a slow recovery is likely in 2019."
"Moreover, a strong runup in apartment supply since 2014 has prompted apartment values to fall in 2018, and only a small recovery is likely in 2019 and 2020."
"A higher supply—with around 1.4 apartments approved for every home approved since 2015—will limit apartment value gains in the region," the report stated.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/Adelaide%202.JPG" alt="">
Moody's Analytics forecast that slow population and income growth will weigh on the South Australian housing market.
They have also predicted that high rental values will keep the Adelaide housing market stable and prevent a sharp collapse seen elsewhere nationwide.
Notably, agriculture commodity prices are expected to remain subdued, while the Australian dollar is unlikely to fall further.
These external developments will limit income gains across the Barossa-Yorke-Mid North and South Australia-Outback regions in the coming years.
Consequently it is forecast the housing market there is will correct further in 2019 before a recovery takes place in 2020.
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Adelaide's housing market forecast to see slow but steady growth: Moody's Analytics

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Queensland’s 2019 housing market is expected to vary across the state, largely because of its diverse economy, according to Moody's Analytics latest report.
The report noted that the Brisbane area has seen its strongest growth since the lull in 2012, thanks mostly to improved activity in the services sector.
The outlook for Queensland's housing markets is for either flat or mildly positive returns over the next two years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%203.JPG" alt="">
The authors noted, "although Brisbane home values rose steadily through 2017 and 2018, the apartment market has been more subdued."
"A runup in supply over the past few years has capped gains in the apartment market."
"However, supply has tightened since its peak; the latest data suggest apartment building approvals have fallen from their 2013 levels."
"Therefore, a reduced apartment glut will likely usher in a broad-based recovery in apartment values from 2019 onward," according to the report authors.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/Brisbane%20apts%203.JPG" alt="">
The contrast between home and apartment values is most apparent in Brisbane Inner City (comprising South Brisbane, Ascot and Grange).
Moody’s Analytics forecasts home values to underperform throughout the forecast period, while apartment values are expected to accelerate.
This is a reversal of trend from the past few years; home values had risen more than 30% since mid-2012, while apartment values had risen only around 5%.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/Brisbane%20apts%204.JPG" alt="">
(Source: Moody's Analytics, CoreLogic)
Apartments in Greater Brisbane are forecast to grow 2.8 percent overall in 2019 with every region seeing growth, ranging from 2.7% to 7.6%, after falling -3.1 and -0.9 percent in prior years.
Moreton Bay, Logan and Ipswich are projected by Moody's Analytics to be the three largest growth areas for apartments with a forecast growth over 2019 and 2020 ranging from 13.5% in Ipswich to 18.6% in Moreton Bay - North over the next two year. 
Brisbane North and South as well as the Inner City Brisbane region are expected to see medium to high growth with Inner City region expecting growth of 7.3%.
However Brisbane East and the Inner City region are expected to see a slowdown in 2020 with both areas still forecast to grow.
The second housing sector comprising more “lifestyle” areas, including Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay and Cairns, are expected to perform better over the forecast period, as income growth remains robust and the degree of supply increase is not as great as in areas of Brisbane.
Lifestyle areas are also buoyed by overseas tourist demand, which has remained strong on the back of the falling Australian dollar.
Moody’s Analytics forecasts home values to underperform throughout the forecast period, while apartment values are expected to accelerate.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%204.JPG" alt="">
The third housing market region in Queensland comprises commodity-producing areas.
These include Central Queensland, Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday, and Darling Downs-Maranoa.
The report authors note, "values have declined significantly here over the past few years, partly as a result of the end of the mining boom."
"The recent uptick in commodity prices is unlikely to provide a tailwind, with housing values expected to correct further through 2019."
"A lack of job opportunities will subdue population growth, lowering equilibrium home values," the authors concluded.
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Brisbane apartment market forecast to see stronger price growth in 2019: Moody's Analytics

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House prices are falling at the fastest rate in 35 years, according to global investment bank Morgan Stanley.
In October Morgan Stanley predicted the downturn, suggesting it will be the <a href="/news/morgan-stanley-forecast-property-downturn-will-be-the-largest-since-the-early-1980s">largest since the early 1980s</a>.
And December's 1.8 percent house price slide in Sydney put the harbour capital's housing market at a 3.9 percent decline over the last three months of the year, the bank noted according to CoreLogic's figures.
That equates to an annualised figure of nearly 16 percent.
Nationally house prices declined 1.4 percent over December, the largest house price decline since 1983, to be 6.7 percent down over the year.
Morgan Stanley have advised that the likelihood of a disorderly market correction and economic recession has increased. 
Morgan Stanley did note some of the housing weakness in December was "seasonal."
However its model of six key market indicators, ranging from credit supply to house price expectations, suggests approvals and prices will continue to fall with a likely peak to trough decline of between 10 and 15 per cent.
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"A rate of the continuation of the rate of decline in December would be a signal we are shifting to this scenario (a balance sheet recession)," Morgan Stanley's analysis suggested.
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"With entrenched weakness across all aspects of the market, 2019 looks unlikely to hold an improvement."
"Focus is now on the broader economic impact of the ongoing correction. Further details continue to suggest a sustained deterioration in conditions, with few signs of a turnaround," the report warns.
Last year saw a number of the big banks change their house price forecast, having initially saw only small declines over 2018 and 2019.
ANZ revised their housing market forecast in November, instead seeing <a href="/expert-insights/buying/anz-revise-forecast-upwards-to-20-percent-house-price-declines-in-sydney-and-melbourne">prices falling as much as 20 percent</a> in Sydney and Melbourne.
They previously predicted 10 percent falls peak to trough on their <a href="/news/anz-revise-property-forecasts-and-see-10-percent-declines-in-sydney-and-melbourne">second forecast revision</a> in June 2018.
In October <a href="/news/nab-change-property-price-correction-forecast-after-confidence-collapses">NAB changed their predictions</a>, suggesting the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18 to 24 months, with Sydney units falling around 10 percent and Melbourne houses over eight percent.
Now AMP Capital's Shane Oliver, Industry Super's Stephen Anthony and Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas believe the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/why-the-rba-will-cut-interest-rates-in-2019">RBA will cut interest rates this year.</a>
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2019 Property Price Forecast

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