A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

2019 Property Price Forecast

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Experts and economists in Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey are predicting further drops of $50,000-$60,000 in Melbourne and Sydney.
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When asked for their housing price predictions, experts forecast 6% falls still to come in Australia’s eastern capitals of Sydney and Melbourne by the end of 2019.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said now is a great time to be in the market if you’re lucky enough to have a deposit saved. 
“A 6.3 percent drop in Sydney would see average house prices dip a further $58,000, while a 6.6 per cent drop in Melbourne this time would mean a fall of more than $49,000," Cooke said.
“Remarkably, should these price drops eventuate as forecast, this would make Sydney and Melbourne property the cheapest it has been in four years,” he said. 
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Cooke said prospective buyers should use this speculation to their advantage.
 “If you’re buying in a falling market, negotiate to the point where you think it will turn. 
“In other words, bargain for at least 6 per cent under the asking price in Sydney, or 7 per cent in Melbourne,” Cooke said. 
Cooke said property owners in Adelaide and Hobart have reason to celebrate.
“Interestingly, experts predicted property prices in both Adelaide and Hobart to grow, so it could be worthwhile considering investment opportunities in these cities,” Cooke said. 
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House prices to keep falling in eastern capitals: Finder's RBA survey

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 Just a quick update on a few thoughts and stats on the market as we start the new property year off this weekend.   Firstly, Sydney and Melbourne valuation points have improved with the price declines but both markets remain heavily overvalued on our favoured measurement, which is house prices to nominal GDP. Both markets could do with another year of price drops. If we were to have it (and we think there will be more price declines), then valuations would at least return to closer longer term trends for Sydney. Melbourne still needs to correct some more. <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/94248197-92c6-4585-87be-a0f3318f26a7.png" data-imagetype="External">
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 Of course, there is a massive difference between where prices ‘should’ be and where they may actually go. All I do know is when housing prices do eventually bottom in this cycle (very unlikely to be this year), the housing bears will no doubt be forecasting (and demanding!) yet more declines. Housing bears are notoriously hopeless in picking housing market bottoms and I can assure you now it will be no different in this cycle! As mentioned, this coming weekend will be the opening of the new auction season for Sydney and Melbourne. We can expect just over 150 auctions in Sydney and around 200 for Melbourne. As each weekend goes by in February, auctions numbers will increase to the point where the market will should reach its full volume on the 2nd of March with about 850 to 1000 Saturday auctions that day for each city.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a> As per the opening of each season, auction clearance rates will likely rise from the December lows. I am expecting Sydney to rise back into the late 40s or maybe early 50s after unreported results. While Melbourne may reach the high 50s. Be careful of the media reading too much into this. Some may herald this as a recovery in the housing market.  It won’t be. Just recall this time last year the market opened up with Sydney recording a clearance rates in the high 50s and Melbourne actually touched 70%. No, this downturn still has some legs to run yet. As mentioned above, Sydney and Melbourne remain heavily overvalued despite the price falls that have happened, there is a election just a few months away where negative gearing is at play, and then the banks are still being very draconian on providing loans to the market. But I have noticed one thing – there are more bargain hunters in the market. And the first home buyers are somewhat out. This downturn has been going on for over 18 months now. Its not new any more and the longer it goes for, the more sensitive it will be to any stimulus thrown at it.  APRA have also signalled a reversal of policy. Back prior to Christmas, APRA scrapped its interest only <a id="LPlnk67935" href="https://sqmresearch.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb&amp;id=2a328c6fb0&amp;e=0aab96dc54" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">lending limits</a>, which was in our view the final straw for the market when the interest only limits were brought in earlier 2017.  Speculation is rising that the next move from APRA may well be to lower the 7% buffer threshold to maybe 6% or lower still. This buffer is a minimum servicing requirement that’s of the loan applicant if they could handle an average lending rate of 7%. With average lending rates in the 4s it is now very hard to see a scenario where lending rates lift by some 300 basis points. In the current environment, doing so would probably see revolution on the streets, let alone the deepest housing crash in history.   So, what are our forecast again? <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/d8d04315-ef9c-44aa-9857-46476dcd0c83.png" data-imagetype="External"> Nothing much has changed in our view since the release of our results. We think our base case is very much in play but I do also think the odds have increased just a little more that instead of a possible rate cut later this year, the RBA will lean on APRA as mentioned above. Doing so may well create the same effect as a rate cut which  in turn, just might create a bottom in the current housing downturn, especially if APRA keeps loosening lending restrictions into 2020. Offsetting this view will be fears by investors over the repeal of negative gearing, assuming Labor wins in May plus the ongoing hard core scrutiny of the banks on loan applicants.  For now, there is no rush for buyers to enter into the market. But keep an eye out for easy pickings. We have quite a few distressed listings in our Distressed Property report now. Some 23,000 of them, of which, many vendors are quite negotiable…</div>
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Louis Christopher is the <a href="http://sqmresearch.com.au/about-us.php" target="_blank">managing director at SQM Research.</a> 
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Housing bears are notoriously hopeless in picking housing market bottoms: Louis Christopher

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Australian capital city dwelling price falls now worse than the GFC: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are growing signs of recovery in resources-related markets in Queensland, both in sales activity and prices. This, plus steady performance in the larger regional cities of regional Queensland, has lifted the sector’s overall performance to its strongest position since mid-2017.
Regional Queensland markets collectively have improved in the past 12 months: in the past four quarterly surveys of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting, the number of locations with growing demand has increased from 30 to 36 to 40 to 45. The number of growth markets had decreased sharply late in 2017 but showed steady improvement in 2018.
A standout feature is the recovery in mining-related markets which have spent several years in downturn. This trend is headed by Mackay (pictured above), which now has rising demand coupled with much lower vacancies, and some suburbs are now showing good price growth.
Emerald’s sales activity is rising, as is the iconic coal-mining town of Moranbah and the Surat Basin town of Chinchilla. Rockhampton, a larger regional centre with strong links to the mining sector, is now showing signs of following Mackay’s lead to recovery.
Emerald is a standout: quarterly sales have been 51, 57, 66, 62, 60 and 77, while the median house price has risen 22% to $300,000 in the past 12 months.
Moranbah’s median price has increased 21% - but only to $200,000, still well below the former peak above $700,000 in this classic example of a boom-bust scenario. Clermont is up 20% to $220,000 and Collinsville 17% but remains below $100,000.
I’m not suggesting investors should rush out and look for places to buy in these places: these mining-related towns are highly volatile markets and more people lose money than make their fortunes there.
But the recovery is noteworthy as it’s part of a wider trend of stronger performance in regional Queensland, against a backdrop of the national situation whereby the strongest markets are in regional Australia.
A significant new event in Queensland is the first signs of recovery in Gladstone, which had boom conditions in 2011 and 2012, thanks to three massive gas projects totalling $60 billion, but suffered a property market downturn because developers over-reacted and created a glut.
Two Gladstone suburbs, New Auckland and Clinton, now have rising markets (but six suburbs remain “danger” markets). New Auckland’s median has risen 9% in 12 months, but most Gladstone suburbs have continued to decline. So, the picture is still more negative than positive – but we are seeing evidence of recovery, including in the reduction in the overall vacancy rate (now close to 3%, according to SQM Research).
The larger, more diversified regional centres of Queensland have increasingly steady markets. The Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast are both producing good results, especially the Sunshine Coast which is undoubtedly the strongest of the Queensland markets, including Brisbane.
Our latest survey has revealed 62 Regional Queensland locations with annual price growth above 7% - and almost half of them are in the Sunshine Coast region. Noosa
Shire region is thriving, after a lengthy period of stagnation. Median price growth in the past year includes Noosa Heads houses 19%, Noosa Heads units 26%, Noosaville units 16%, Sunshine Beach houses 38% and Sunrise Beach units 23%.
Elsewhere on the Sunshine Coast, Doonan’s median house price has risen 27%, Mt Coolum is up 22% and Twin Waters has risen 23%. But, in terms of sales activity, the Sunshine Coast and Noosa markets may have passed their peaks – they now have considerably more plateau markets than rising ones.
The nearby Gympie region – which benefits from proximity to the booming Sunshine Coast economy - has three suburbs with rising demand.
The post-Games boost predicted by some has not eventuated on the Gold Coast. This market was strong from 2015 to 2017 because of the pre-Commonwealth Games construction boom. Since then the growth has subsided and we can find only five growth suburbs in Gold Coast City, but 41 suburbs classified as either “plateau” or “consistency” markets – and three “decline” markets.
Beyond these South-East Queensland areas, the locations showing most signs of rising are the Fraser Coast, Cairns, Toowoomba and the highly-promising Townsville market, where over $25 billion in new investment is targeted.
The Fraser Coast region, centred on Hervey Bay, now has several rising suburbs, with Torquay and Scarness the standouts. Toogoom, Dundowran and Scarness have all recorded strong price uplift.
Cairns has five suburbs with rising demand, while Toowoomba is showing signs of rising on the back of major infrastructure and other property-related investment.
Overall, regional Queensland is showing increasing signs of joining the biggest trend in Australian real estate – the rise and rise of regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regional Queensland property prices rising: Terry Ryder

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A NAB survey has forecast Melbourne house prices to fall 7 per cent in 2019, more than the drop expected in Sydney house prices.
Sydney house prices are forecast fall 5.4 per cent in 2019.
The only capital cities forecast to grow in 2019 or 2020 are Adelaide and Hobart.
The NAB survey suggests Adelaide house prices will grow 1.7 per cent in 2019 and 2020 while Hobart house prices grow 1.8 per cent in 2019 and 2020.
In the uncertain market Australians plan to sit tight and <a href="/news/australians-plan-to-sit-tight-and-do-nothing-in-the-2019-property-market-nab-survey">do nothing in the 2019 property market</a>, according to the NAB survey. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%203.JPG" alt="">
On average, consumers expect price falls of ‐2.1% over the next 12 months, according to property professional forecasts in NAB’s latest Residential Property Survey. 
NAB's survey found that New South Wales (‐3.1%) and Victoria (‐2.9%) are expected to lead the way down, with consumers a little less pessimistic than property professionals.  
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Numerous consumers in VIC (39%) and NSW (37%) anticipate price drops of 5% or more with 16% and 17% respectively also predicting falls of more than 10%.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%201.JPG" alt="">
 
Tasmania is the only state with positive expectations (2.2%).
“Tasmanians are by far the most positive across states, with almost 1 in 2 people there still expecting a positive price outcome, followed by Queensland at around 1 in 3”, said Mr. Oster.
Interestingly 1 in 5 consumers in New South Wales and Victoria still expect house prices to grow next year.  
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%202.JPG" alt="">
By region the downturn is being driven by expectations for larger falls in capital city house prices (‐2.8%), with smaller falls in rural towns (‐1.0%) and major regional cities (‐0.9%).
Consumers living more than 5km from the nearest town (or the ‘bush’) are on average predicting modest growth of 0.6%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20sentiment%20outlook%204.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne houses set to fall the most in 2019: NAB survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last year it’s turned into how far prices will fall and what’s the impact on the economy.
Global issues and the election aside, the housing downturn is likely to be the main issue for Australia in 2019.
 How far have home prices fallen?
According to CoreLogic data, up until December capital city dwelling prices are down 7% from their September 2017 high. This masks a wide range though with Sydney down 11% from its July 2017 high, Melbourne down 7% from its November 2017 high, Perth down 16% and Darwin down 25% from their mid 2014 mining investment boom highs but other cities continuing to trend up to varying degrees. Recently the declines have been led by Sydney and Melbourne. House prices are on average down more than unit prices and prices in regional centres have generally held up better than capital cities.
What is driving the falls?
The fall in property prices comes after a boom – most recently over the five years to 2017 that in particular saw Sydney prices rise 72% and Melbourne prices gain 56%. This, on top of gains since the mid-1990s, saw a sharp deterioration in affordability, prices become overvalued relative to income, rents and their long-term trend and reach expensive levels by global standards. The surge in home prices went hand in hand with a surge in debt that has seen the ratio of household debt to income go from the low end of OECD countries to the top end. High prices and high debt left Australian housing very vulnerable.
What has changed in the last two years is that:
<ul>
<li>It’s become harder to get a loan as regulators forced banks to tighten lending standards and the Royal Commission seems to have made banks even more cautious. </li>
<li>A big pool of interest only borrowers are switching to principal and interest driving higher debt servicing costs. </li>
<li>Banks have cut lending to SMSF funds to invest in property. </li>
<li>The supply of units has surged to record levels. </li>
<li>Foreign demand has fallen sharply. </li>
<li>As rising prices fed on themselves by driving expectations for more price gains (FOMO - fear of missing out), falling prices are driving reduced price expectations and leading to reduced demand and FONGO (fear of not getting out). </li>
<li>Investors are starting to factor in less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements if there is a change of government. </li>
<li>Problems regarding the Lacrosse and Opal buildings have dented confidence around building standards. </li>
<li>It's unlikely interest rate cuts will quickly end this property cycle downturn as occurred in the 2008 and 2010-12 downswings. Rates are already low &amp; debt is much higher.</li>
</ul>
What will be the impact of tax changes?
The Australian Labor Party’s policy since the last election has been to limit negative gearing to new property and double capital gains tax on investments held for more than 12 months. This is aimed at improving housing affordability which means lower prices. Put simply, such changes would make it less attractive for investors to invest in residential property which would be negative for prices.
A study by Riskwise Property Research and Wargent Advisory found that this would lower property prices ranging from 2 to 3% in Tasmania to around 9% in Sydney. While the tax changes are proposed to be grandfathered, it’s likely it’s already reducing investor demand as investors worry that when it comes time to sell their property if the tax changes occur then there will be less demand.
How far will home prices fall?
For Sydney and Melbourne our base case has been that prices would have a top to bottom fall of around 20% out to 2020. However, the further plunge in auction clearance rates and acceleration in price falls late last year suggest a deeper fall possibly of around 25% (although it’s impossible to be precise). This suggests around another 15% fall in Sydney and more in Melbourne. A 25% top to bottom drop would take prices back to where they were in late 2014/early 2015.
While prices in other cities are being affected by credit tightening they were less speculative and so are less vulnerable. Perth and Darwin have already seen prices fall back to decade ago levels. Other capital cities and regional centres generally didn’t have a boom and so are unlikely to have a bust. So for the rest of Australia flat prices to modest gains are likely. Taken together this suggests a top to bottom fall in national average prices of 10 to 15%, with another 5 to 10% this year.
Will home prices crash?
This is a bit of an unhelpful question like the “are we in a property bubble” questions of a few years ago as it’s hard to define and implies a degree of inevitability in terms of the implications. A 25% plunge in Sydney and Melbourne may seem like a crash but given the extent of the prior gains it’s arguably not. But a 25% national average fall would probably be interpreted as a crash.
Our assessment is that this is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) driving a sharp rise in defaults and forced property sales or a collapse in immigration (which would collapse demand). Strong population growth is still driving strong underlying demand for housing. While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated, and is unlikely to be a generalised issue unless interest rates or unemployment shoot higher. And, while Sydney and Melbourne are at risk, other cities have not seen the same boom &amp; so are unlikely to crash.
Although many like to make comparisons to the US at the time of the GFC, there are two big differences. Australia has not seen the surge in sub-prime loans where money was lent to home owners who often had “no income, no job, no asset” (NINJA loans). Secondly, our mortgages are full recourse meaning we won’t see “jingle mail”, where home owners can send back the keys just because the house value falls below their debt, which then saw the bank put the property back on the market pushing home prices even lower.
However, the risk of a crash cannot be ignored given the danger that banks may become too tight and that investors decide to exit in the face of falling returns.
Have home prices fallen before?
A common property myth is that prices only ever go up and never fall. But a simple look at history tells us this is not so. Real house prices (ie prices after the impact of inflation) in Sydney fell 36% in 1934-35, 32% in 1937-41, 41% in 1942-43, 12% in 1947-48, 14% in 1951-53, 12% in 1961-62 and 22% in 1974-77.
In nominal terms based on CoreLogic data Sydney dwelling prices fell 25% in 1980-83, 10% in 1989-91, 8% in 2004-06 and 7% in 2008-09. So a 25% fall this time around would be similar to that seen in the early 1980s.
What will be the impact on the economy? The housing downturn will affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending (ie, our wealth goes down, we feel poorer, we spend less than otherwise) and if rising defaults drive a further slowing in bank lending. The first two will detract 1 to 1.5 percentage points from economic growth. Growth in infrastructure spending and business investment should help keep the economy growing but its likely to be constrained to around 2.7% which in turn will keep wages and inflation low.
What is the impact on banks?
The main risk for banks is that the property downturn drives a rise in defaults. However, full recourse loans mean that just because home prices fall resulting in negative equity, defaults won’t necessarily rise. In the absence of much higher interest rates or unemployment making it harder for people to service their loans, a big rise in defaults is unlikely.
However, it’s still a risk and the housing downturn will likely mean slower bank lending which will constrain bank profits.
What will it mean for interest rates?
Constrained growth due to the housing downturn resulting in lower for longer inflation will likely drive the RBA to cut interest rates this year, with two cuts taking the cash rate to 1% by year end. Our base case is that this will occur in August and November (giving the RBA chance to assess the election and tax cuts), but soft data could see it come earlier.
Tax cuts from July are unlikely to be big enough (the Government is allowing for just $3bn pa in tax cuts which is just 0.1% of GDP) to head off the need for rate cuts.
Is the house price downturn good or bad?
This depends on who you are. For baby boomers who got in years ago, have paid off their debt and saw the value of their home rise to levels they never believed sustainable, a fall back to 2014/15 levels may be no big deal.
For those who got in more recently and have a big mortgage price falls are more of a downer and its this group for whom negative wealth effects will be greatest.
For millennials trying to get in its great news – assuming the housing downturn is not so great that it knocks the economy for six and they lose their jobs. For investors…
What does it mean for investors?
Over the very long-term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios. However, right now the slump in property prices in some cities is bad news for investors given that rental yields are often just 1-2% after costs.
Falling rents in Sydney are a double whammy. Add to this uncertainty about tax and it’s not a great time for a property investor. That said, other cities and regional centres offer more attractive rental yields than Sydney and Melbourne and falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will throw up opportunities at some point.
Dr Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
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How bad will the housing downturn get? Shane Oliver answers the burning questions

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Values in Darwin’s housing market have been declining since 2014-2015, coinciding with the contours of the liquefied natural gas boom, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
The report found, dwelling values are now around 23% below the peak.
As a result of falling dwelling prices, housing affordability in Darwin is among the highest of all capital cities, attracting increased numbers of first time home-buyers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/17/NT%202017-2020%20home%20values.JPG" alt="">
Moody’s Analytics expects a 3.7% growth in house values in 2018 after a -2% drop in 2018 in Darwin.
Greater Darwin House values are forecast to accelerate in 2020 growing 6.6%.
Apartment values in Darwin dropped steeply by 11.3% in 2018 however they are to stabilise in 2019 growing 1.2% and building off that growth in 2020 reaching 6.5% growth in median apartment values.
Dwelling values in Darwin fell year on year every month for four straight years.
The rest of the Northern Territory is forecast to have a recovery with house prices to grow 5.9% in 2019 and 4.4% in 2020 after seeing small losses in median house value in 2017 and 2018.
Vacancy rates in Darwin in the June quarter of 2018 were the highest among all capital cities, according to the Northern Territory government, though Darwin’s vacancy rate is susceptible to fluctuations due to the transient nature of the state’s population.
The authors noted that, "as a result, rental values have been tumbling; they were already down 24% since the first quarter of 2014."
"Even though building approvals have been falling at a similar rate in recent years, rental values have continued to fall."
"This is contributing to lower purchasing demand, even though rental yields are high by national averages," they concluded.
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Darwin property values to finally rise in 2019: Moody's Analytics

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Property price falls could potentially double previous estimates, down 20 percent rather than 10 percent, according to Morgan Stanley.
The revision comes after weakening sentiment and tighter credit.
Potentially facing declines at their largest since the early 1980s, the investment bank's analysis suggests peak-to-trough property declines are now expected to be about 15 to 20 percent, compared with previous estimates of 10-15 percent.
Evidence of worsening conditions will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut this year, the analysis reported by Nine Entertainment concludes.
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"We are now watching second-round impacts closely," Morgan Stanley's team of equity strategists concludes about the broadening economic impact of the property slowdown.
"There is evidence of a consumer pullback over Christmas but jobs impact will be key for any negative feedback loop to push Australia into a balance sheet recession," it concludes.
A balance sheet recession describes where high levels of debt and growing nervousness about the economic outlook cause consumers or companies to focus on saving and paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline.
The research says credit growth continues to slow with the share of interest-only and investor lending low, despite the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority removing restrictions late last year.
Finance commitments have slowed sharply for investors, it noted.
A 15-20 percent decline in real terms - after allowing for inflation - would be the largest slump since the 1981 to1983 decline, when the median house price in Sydney was $79,000.
Falls in house prices in real terms during the global financial crisis were about 9 percent.
 
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Higher property price falls could emerge in balance sheet recession: Morgan Stanley

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Mixed results out of Western Australia’s economy have coincided with continued weakness in its housing market, which is expected to cool further in 2019, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
The report found that the labour market in Western Australia improved, with the unemployment rate falling in October to 5.4%, still a tick above the nation’s average, while the state’s wage growth is among the lowest in Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/WA%20graph%202.JPG" alt="">
Greater Perth’s home values fell -4.4% last year and is set to continue that trend into 2019 with a decrease of -2.1% in house values and -2.8 in unit values.
However Moody's Analytics is predicting a turnaround in 2020 and is forecasting growth of 3.3% for both houses and units.
Mandurah is forecast to have the highest reduction in apartment values of anywhere in Australia in 2019, -14%, while houses will see value reductions of just -2.4%. 
In contrast Mandurah is predicted to have the biggest increases in WA in both houses (7.8%) and units (4.8%) in 2020.
Inner Perth is the only region in WA whose house prices have come off the back of a year of growth and is forecast to grow a further 4.7% in 2019.
Unit values however are set to decrease 4.3% in 2019.
Perth North East will have the highest reduction in house values in 2019 at -8%, while apartments will remain relatively stable losing only -0.1%.
It is the only region that houses wont experience price growth in 2020.
Perth North West will have reductions in house values of -0.1% in 2019 and reductions in apartment values of -3.3%, according to Moody's Analytics.
Both houses and units in South East Perth will experience value reductions in 2019 with house values decreasing by -4.6% and unit values decreasing by -4.1%.
South West Perth is the only WA region forecast to have an increase in unit values of in 2019, 4.7%, while house values are decrease by -5.4%.
In Bunbury house values are forecast to fall by -6.3% in 2019 before making a recovery in 2020 of 2.4%.
The housing market in Western Australia is not expected to recover until 2020 as discussed, and values are not expected to surpass their 2015 peak through the next five years.
Although the housing slump is expected to continue, population growth in Greater Perth and Western Australia has stabilised after falling sharply from 2015 to 2016, despite sizeable outward interstate migration.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/WA%20graph%201.JPG" alt="">
Rental values fell more than 20% peak to trough from May 2013 to November 2017, a sign of continued excess supply.
During the fall, building approvals also slowed significantly.
Since then, rental values have remained broadly stable. 
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House prices in Greater Perth forecast to fall 2.8% in 2019: Moody's Analytics

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John Mcgrath has released his top suburb picks for Sydney with the top spot taken by Putney a suburb once dominated by mainly public housing residences.
1. Putney: 
John Mcgrath said, "Once dominated by mainly public housing residences, this charming waterside pocket is one of Sydney’s least known riverfront addresses.
When it goes the way of its sought-after neighbor, Hunters Hill, you’ll be regretting not owning a small piece of it."
An example of the strong Putney market is <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-putney-128012602" target="_blank">310 Morrison Road, Putney</a> (pictured above).
The four bedroom two bathroom home retains a number of features from it's 1920 period construction.
Set on 651 sqm the home was originally listed with a $1.75 million - $1.85 million price guide before being reduced to $1.7 million and eventually selling for $1.6 million in mid August 2018.
However this still marks a $400,000 improvement on it's June 2014 sale price of $1.2 million.
The median price for a house in Putney is $2.275 million, according to CoreLogic data the median price in Putney has increased by 83.8% over just the past 5 years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/17/Putney%20house%202.JPG" alt="">
A current Putney offering is 54 Frances Road (pictured above), overlooking waterfront parkland and Morrison's Bay.
The four bedroom three bathroom home comes with a price guide of $2.3 million and is slated for a February 16 auction.
Set on 606 sqm the home last sold in 1995, for $318,000.
The home was listed as a rental as recently as May 2017 for $485 per week $365 less than the median rental price in Putney of $850 per week.
Built in 1995 the home is located a short walk to Ferries, Putney village and school, as well as a short drive from Gladesville &amp; Top Ryde shopping centres.
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2. Avalon Beach: 
John McGrath said, "The glorious Northern Beaches continues to offer value to Sydney buyers for a world-class coastal lifestyle."
"Avalon Beach and surrounds is my pick of the available addresses mainly because of the charming retail village which sets it apart."
"Enjoy the Palm Beach lifestyle without the hefty price tag."
3. Maroubra:
John McGrath said, "Like Avalon in the north, Maroubra Beach offers relative value if you’re prepared to travel a few extra minutes to trek into the CBD."
"The heartland of the South Sydney Rabbitohs, this beachside neighbourhood will catch up in time to its slightly more glamorous neighbouring beaches."
4. Earlwood: 
John McGrath said, "This is one of Sydney’s most diverse multicultural communities with Greek, Italian and Lebanese heritage delivering a wonderful vibe to this beautiful garden suburb."
"And with Marrickville shops up the road, you won’t go wanting for great eating options or a strong Turkish coffee or two."
5. Stanmore: 
John McGrath said, "The Inner West continues to attract both upwardly mobile executives and families, as well as downsizing baby boomers looking to move closer to the action."
"Attached cottages, bungalows and now a selection of apartments delivers something for almost everyone within 15 minutes of the city."
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