<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

<p data-end="320" data-start="79">Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.</p>

<p data-end="638" data-start="322">The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.</p>

<p data-end="864" data-start="640">Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]</p>

<p>Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."</p>

<p>“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.</p>

<p>“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]</p>

<p>The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.</p>

<p>“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]</p>


Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Home Loans

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">While it's possible to borrow money at significantly lower rates than reported here, mortgage rates have nudged higher over the last couple of months. </span></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Government bond yields have also crept steadily higher. </span></p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA1.png" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA1.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">In fact the 10-year bond yield had dropped well below 2 percent in the second half of 2016, but has since staged a strong rebound to sit around 2.70 percent. </span></p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/09/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage rates nudge higher: Pete Wargent

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<div>The share of interest-only loans fell sharply towards the 30 per cent proposed regulatory cap in the June 2017 quarter, as bank incentives to switch towards principal and interest products had the desired impact. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Scott Morrison will argue that the "scalpel" approach to cooling this sector of the market has been successful, forcing Aussies to begin paying back their mortgages sooner. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For ADIs with greater than $1 billion in residential term loans, new loans to investors also dropped back to a 34.5 per cent share of the new lending market, now well down from 42.5 per cent in the June 2015 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of high loan to value ratio (LVR) loans has also diminished considerably over the past 10 quarters, which makes life tough for first homebuyers, but arguably reduces mortgage exposure risk in aggregate.  </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Despite these changes in the composition of exposures, lending growth remains strong, with total ADI exposures rising by +7.3 per cent over the financial year to $1.54 trillion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's an increase of +$105 billion over the 2017 financial year, ever-so-slightly less than the +$107 billion increase seen in FY2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in ADI exposures to owner-occupiers was particularly strong, rising by +8.1 per cent to beyond $1 trillion for the first time. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Activity in new low-doc loans and other non-standard loans continued to decline, as has consistently been the case now since 2009. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, there was not much of a slowdown in evidence here, even if the composition of lending has shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, non-banks have been growing their mortgage books apace - the dollar value of Pepper's residential loan originations soared by +17 per cent in H1 2017, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for these changes it's questionable that there has been any meaningful slowdown at all in the pace of mortgage lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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ADI home loan exposure pass $1 trillion: Pete Wargent

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.3 per cent over the year to July 2017, a fair bit slower than the +6.6 per cent seen a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown has partly been a reflection of business credit growth ambling along at an annual rate of +4.2 per cent, although surveys suggest that business investment is set to gather a bit of momentum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Growth in credit relating to housing market investors has slowed a touch to +7.4 per cent, now well under the 10 per cent cap, with more slowing to come based on recent monthly figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupier credit growth is still powering along, though, and total housing credit growth is still a sprightly +6.6 per cent, unchanged from a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Personal credit growth remains negative, as consumers tend towards mortgage buffers and offset accounts instead of of credit cards and personal loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Shifts at the margin</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubt that it's become more difficult at the margin to gain access to housing credit, particularly for investor loans, and most especially for interest-only mortgages. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in investor loans is now well below the regulatory 10 per cent cap for each of the major banks, which between them account for most of the mortgage market.<br><br>A couple of minnow lenders have been pinged with a speeding ticket, including the tiny Heritage Bank, so they'll be putting investor loans in the sin bin, perhaps for a month or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But on the flip side, there's plenty of potential for most of the main lenders to loosen standards again for investment loans as we head into spring and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, while APRA's latest ADI monthly statistics hinted at a marginal slowdown, the reality is that non-standard loans have to some extent been picked up by alternative lenders such as Pepper and their ilk. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA's figures show that over the year to July 2017 the total stock of outstanding housing credit increased by $113 billion to $1.69 trillion.<br><br>In dollar value terms, this is the biggest annual increase ever recorded.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>So, there may be a 'slowdown' of sorts underway, if you will, but as the above chart shows it looks like a shift in composition too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, every single one of the main lenders continues to increase its stock of mortgages outstanding, even if there has been a move towards home loans and away from investor loans. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/APRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/APRA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Some one-track observers have noted that out of cycle rate hikes has crashed or destroyed demand for mortgage debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure what data source they're using to draw that conclusion - none, most likely - but the official RBA figures shows a record annual increase in housing credit, with a slowing in investor credit just beginning to flow through to the annual data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Experiences elsewhere in the world have shown that macroprudential measures tend to be effective for a while before borrowers and lenders find ways to get transactions happening again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reality is that, in aggregate, interest rate differentials have only slowed lending slightly at the margin to date, while simultaneously boosting the bottom line and equity of gleeful banks.<br><br>Out of cycle rate hikes were certainly never about funding costs, with the cost of wholesale debt barely having broken a decade-long downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What would genuinely change the landscape would be a statement of intent from the RBA in the form of a hike in the cash rate, but in all likelihood that remains far away.<br><br>
</div>
<div>In the event a couple of dozen lenders have already cut their mortgage rates since the beginning of July, most notably Westpac, in anticipation of the spring selling season.<br><br>With the trend unemployment rate declining to its lowest level in more than four years and further improvements expected over the next few ahead by the RBA, it will be intriguing to see how claims of a 'perfect storm' and 'record mortgage stress' are reconciled with what's actually happening on the ground.<br><br>I say that because it looks suspiciously as though mortgage default rates are refusing to rise from benign levels outside Western Australia.<br><br>Naturally, household cash flows may appear weaker if accelerated mortgage repayments have become the norm.<br><br>But the statistics show that although wages growth has been weak, the unemployment rate has been falling, and underutilisation is declining in volume terms.<br><br>Genuinely, I'm intrigued to watch what the media will report having run so hard with the unprecedented mortgage stress meme.<br><br>Not everyone agrees with the improving economy thesis, mind.<br><br>Westpac sees the pullback of Chinese apartment investors leading to a sharp slowdown in residential construction and unemployment heading back towards 6 per cent next year.<br><br>Watch, this, space!!!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The record year for house lending: Pete Wargent 

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<p>One of the criticisms of macroprudential measures to cool lending (as opposed to the Reserve Bank lifting the cash rate) has been that they can't "get in all the cracks".</p>
<p>And those sneaky lenders have been up to their old tricks, with mortgage growth accelerating strongly in May, directly contradicting almost all market commentary.</p>
<p>It's hard to get a read on this.</p>
<p>With borrowing capacity increasingly constrained, it may imply higher volumes. </p>
<p>APRA released its Monthly Banking Statistics yesterday which confirmed that banks expanded mortgage books by 0.6 per cent in May, with owner-occupier loans rising by 0.7 per cent. </p>
<p>Respected banking analyst Martin North referred to the growth as "too strong", noting that "home prices will continue to rise", although this wasn't reported anywhere of note, at least as far I could see. </p>
<p>Growth in investor loans also accelerated in May, up from 0.39 per cent to 0.42 per cent. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>For more detailed analysis of the individual components, including the speed at which the individual banks are growing their respective investment mortgage books, subscribe for our monthly reports.</p>
<p>Housing credit picks up</p>
<p>It was a busy day indeed for credit-related statistics yesterday, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also releasing its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of May. </p>
<p>Credit growth expanded by 5 per cent of the year to May, while broad money growth remained somewhat stronger at 7.3 per cent. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<div id="post-body-5590776051175794007" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/02/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/02/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling into the components of credit growth, housing credit had a stronger month, meaning that the annual rate of housing credit growth has continued to pick up speed from 6.32 per cent in November to 6.59 per cent in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit grew by 7.5 per cent over the year, but the trajectory up growth looks to be calming as banks jack up investment loan rates to encourage more owner-occupier loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite being inherently 'riskier', at least on a historical basis, business credit growth is considered by many to be vital.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, stock exchange (ASX) market data records three consecutive months of strong aggregates in initial and secondary capital raisings totalling more than $12.5 billion, showing that business lending is far from the be all and end all for investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business surveys also saw conditions hit multi-year highs early in 2017, while job surveys point to a broad-based improvement in hiring. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, you can't just look at total outstanding business credit increasing by 3.1 per cent over the year and dismiss growth as weak. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/02/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/02/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Since July 2015 the purpose of some $53 billion of loans has been switched from investment to owner-occupier, following the introduction of an interest rate differential. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QDNiv_8zbSk/WVapAk7gNgI/AAAAAAAAkts/hsXcGXGu7T8wRxwBnMuv7tg4VAPhhwnswCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QDNiv_8zbSk/WVapAk7gNgI/AAAAAAAAkts/hsXcGXGu7T8wRxwBnMuv7tg4VAPhhwnswCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1366"></a></div>
<br><div>Thus, investor credit may be slowing, but the way the figures dovetail these days, the lines between what is an investment loan and what isn't seem to be increasingly blurred. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, reported as a total housing now accounts for a record 62 per cent of outstanding credit.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/02/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/02/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Finally, and not too surprisingly, through netting off the results we can see that non-bank lending has picked up some of the slack to grow by a faster pace in May. </div>
<br>Total housing lending now sits at some $1.67 trillion.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Mortgage growth displays strength: Pete Wargent

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<div>Personal credit growth was negative again in November 2017, as it was in October 2017, and on an annual basis it has been negative since 2015 as Aussies elect to cut up their credit cards (or at least, apply for fewer cards and personal loans).<br><br>Housing credit continues to swing across from investors to owner-occupiers - in part due to loan switching - but in aggregate the annual rate of growth at 6.4 per cent remains higher than a year earlier when it was 6.3 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0yCCn4mLAfY/WkdoqRqLgVI/AAAAAAAAnus/pa_QXMs6Mc0Doek8mBChxLX3KX27AzleQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1354"></div>
<p><br><span>Annual credit growth was steady year-on-year at 5.4 per cent.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ljdXLu8nUFQ/WkdorDaKAvI/AAAAAAAAnu0/4IleZattKeA89bssvZ6Yp07INR016KMHwCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1365"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cross-checking to APRA's monthly figures we can see that ADIs grew their investment loan exposures at just 2.8 per cent, miles below the arbitrary 10 per cent speed limit, so there is plenty of potential capacity for investment loans to pick up again in 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-q_3V-T87s3I/Wkdoqtj6aSI/AAAAAAAAnuw/BV3AtDI3h-w22j7p8K64BFth2AOnLL7uwCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1370"></div>
<div>
<br>On the other hand, APRA's figures showed that monthly owner-occupier credit grew by an up-tempo 0.56 per cent to $1.04 trillion, suggesting that non-banks have picked up the slack created by tighter lending standards.<br><br>
</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Low mortgage stress</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate contin<span>ued to trend lower in 2017, now down to its lowest level in 4½ years with further declines to come in 2018, and S&amp;P has its 30-day prime mortgage arrears at the lowest level we've seen. Arrears may or may not pick up a bit in 2018, but they are presently tracking at such a remarkably low level it could hardly be a surprise if they did. </span>
</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2yg8nUBdByQ/WkdopQzcUuI/AAAAAAAAnuo/5fduST_I4iEZnj-8g1srhqzQhTmDp1mXgCLcBGAs/s640/Arrears.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1344"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's figures suggest that the ratio of household debt to disposable income will likely tick past 200 per cent in 2018, but serviceability remains very comfortable for most households, with the cost of living indexes very benign and household income growth passed its nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to see that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) incorporated the two uppermost points I raised at the UBS Conference panel debate, namely on Australia's household debt distribution by quintile and the tremendous growth of mortgage offsets (see borrowers and buffers) in its latest paper on household debt (though it appears to have given the buffers point relatively short shrift!).<br><br>The fact is, though, that mortgages are easier to service than they used to be, and overall households are managing pretty well, while the outlook is improving nicely in the resources states.<br><br>Roll on 2018 and the 'surprisingly resilient' articles...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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Non-banks pick up slack for investment loans: Pete Wargent

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<div>
<em>60 Minutes</em> was an interesting talking point this week, wherein some American geezer claimed that he "could" have got a 95 per cent mortgage using a "fake income" by pretending to be a "gay couple".<br><br>OK. Given that he didn't actually get a mortgage written, it is a little perturbing how often people choose to believe what random punters say in preference to the actual data, but such is the nature of confirmation bias.</div>
<div>
<br>Household debt is high, no doubt, and some lending has been reckless, particularly in mining towns, but by the same token not everything that is claimed on the internet or elsewhere is true.<br><br>For example, some years ago bearish commentators got sucked in to believing erroneous figures which claimed that an incredibly high percentage of lending was 100 per ent mortgages.</div>
<div>
<br>Of course, the data sources quoted advertised loans rather than actual loans written, a rookie error that surely wouldn't pass the sniff test.<br><br>Another favourite trick is to tap a few notional numbers into a mortgage calculator and use this as "evidence" of irresponsible lending, conveniently neglecting to mention the key words "<strong>may</strong> be able to borrow". Clickbait ahoy!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/25/Mortgage.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/25/Mortgage.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>It's one of the reasons I write blogs - not to get a readership, mainly just so I can stop annoying my missus by regurgitaing every blasted "fact" that I read in the media and on the internet.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">APRA exposures data</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back in the real world APRA released its latest ADI Q4 2015 property exposures data today, which showed that the share of new loans whereby lenders extended a 90 per cent or more loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) has continued its long and steady decline from more than 18 per cent in the March 2008 quarter to under 10 per cent in the December 2015 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of loans whereby an 80 to 90 per cent LVR loan was advanced has also declined significantly over the last eight years from 20 per cent to only 14 per cent, meaning that the overwhelming majority of loans see a deposit of 20 per cent or more used. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll just clarify that.<br><br>In aggregate high LVR lending has been in decline for years, while low-doc loans and other non-standard now loans represent just a small and rapidly declining fraction of new loans and total residential mortgage market exposures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/25/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/25/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Within the "big four" major banks 90 per cent plus LVR loans have fallen even more sharply from 21.6 per cent in 2009 to just 9.1 per cent, while 80 to 90 per cent LVR loans have declined from 22 per cent in 2011 to only 14.2 per cent. </div>
<br><div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Lending shifts to homebuyers</span></strong><br><br>If there is anything suspicious in the APRA figures related to lending standards, I believe it is in the incredibly smooth transition from investment loans to owner-occupier loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The market has barely skipped a beat in recording remarkably similar headline quarterly data while the percentage share of loans conveniently swings from investors to homebuyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/25/APRA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/25/APRA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Draw your own conclusions from that, but I'd hazard that some of these homebuyers may well be would-be investors sneakily veiled behind a Scooby-Doo mask.</span><br><br><span>The </span><em>60 Minutes</em><span> segment claimed that household debt is "exploding", and indeed the above chart shows that the total stock of outstanding credit has more than doubled since 2008.</span><br><br><span>However, the aggregate of outstanding household debt nearly always rises in an inflationary economy with rising household incomes and a strong population growth.</span><br><br><span>The truth is that after accounting for record high mortgage buffers and offset balances, the figures show that the household debt to income ratio is unchanged in Australia since 2008. Australia has a unique mechanism whereby loan repayments often continue at the same level when interest rates fall, as they have been since 2011.</span><br><br><em>60 Minutes</em><span> also claimed that "half" of all loans are interest only.</span><br><br><span>The true figure as revealed in APRA's figures today is 39 per cent - still too high for comfort, granted, but this mostly reflects tax strategy rather than that people "can't afford to pay the debt back", and the interest-only loans figure should theoretically now decline following the crackdown on investor lending.</span><br><br><span>The truth according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) research is that on average homeowners are miles ahead on home loan repayments, by fully two years which is an unprecedented margin. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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High LVR loans have been declining for years: Pete Wargent

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<p>Roy Morgan reported from its survey of over 50,000 households per annum that those at risk of mortgage stress fell by some 78,000 from a year ago to 16.8 percent, to sit well below the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Those 'extremely at risk' also fell to the lowest level in well over a decade, which is good to see. </p>
<p>The high risk cohort overwhelmingly comprises lower income households, and is far less represented by households earning $100,000 per annum or more. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Lower rates reducing mortgage stress

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<p>Just one in 10 cash-strapped borrowers who took a COVID-19 mortgage break from repayments to the big four banks have exited the payment relief program.</p>
<p class="indent">The Australian Banking Association confirmed many Australians are unwilling to make any repayments.</p>
<p class="indent">About 485,000 mortgages have been deferred in Australia with the nation’s largest seven banks, including the Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Suncorp and Bank of Queensland.</p>
<p class="indent">But new data released by the big four banks found that in May and June:</p>
<p>• About 75,800 customers on mortgage deferrals had exited the repayment holiday program (9 per cent).</p>
<p>• About 50,000 are making partial repayments and 62,500 are making full repayments (15 per cent).</p>
<p class="indent">The ABA’s chief executive, former Queensland premier Anna Bligh, said there was "a very long road and plenty of hurdles to clear." </p>
<p class="indent">Customers were initially given repayment deferral for up to six months, but banks are set to offer further extensions.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Most mortgage relief recipients still taking COVID-19 repayment break

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<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Lending Finance data this week, and it was a pretty weak reading after a couple of apparently very strong months for commercial lending.</p>
<p>Total new lending fell by 10.3% in August from the previous month with a sharp 16% drop in commercial lending the driver of the result.</p>
<p>Owner occupier housing loans fell by 2% in the month of August on a seasonally adjusted basis, with most states seeing activity fall in the month (although notably not Queensland).</p>
<p>Note that the ABS classifies property investor loans separately from owner occupier loans and thus these come under the commercial lending header in the chart below.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Year on year total new lending remains 11% higher, which is promising, and the rolling 12 monthly figures about do show that the overall trend has been a good 'un.</p>
<p>However, there is no getting away from the fact that August was a fairly rubbish result for commercial and business lending and quickly quells the enthusiasm of the markets from last month which saw some excitable claims that interest rates will be heading up imminently.</p>
<p>In short: No, they won't be.</p>
<p><strong>Property investor loans</strong></p>
<p>As for those property investor loans, in aggregate, property investor loans were pretty much flat in August on a seasonally adjusted basis.</p>
<p>On a trend basis, investor loans were down in all states, as one might expect. On a rolling 12 monthly basis, however, property investor loans across all of the main states continued to rise, with New South Wales and Victoria marching on to new heights.</p>
<p>New South Wales (read: Sydney) loans are a whopping 42.5% higher year-on-year on a rolling annual basis.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Just looking at the straight raw monthly property investor loan data, New South Wales and Victoria are the clear standouts with 30% and 28% increases respectively.</p>
<p>Elsewhere activity has been softer, although evidently property investors are becoming more active in Queensland. Property investor activity has been solid in Western Australia and flat in South Australia.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Macro-pru</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it's not yet quite clear what this means for so-termed macro-prudential regulation to cool the investor market.</p>
<p>Clearly with property investor loans up very strongly over the past year, macro-prudential measures from the regulator (APRA) are very much in play in order to keep the proportion of lending to investors under some kind of check.</p>
<p>The August data taken by itself was far from alarming so there may be no knee-jerk announcements or reactions while the Reserve Bank and APRA await another month or two of data.</p>
<p>It's impossible to second guess these volatile data sets or indeed the actions of the regulator, although one generally gets the sense that dramatic macro-prudential measures are not really a preferred option.</p>
<p>Wayne Byres of APRA made the point the other day that although "people love the term" there is "nothing really new" about macro-prudential measures, which sort of implied moderation (to me at least).</p>
<p>I do just note in passing that AFG's more timely data for September showed record transactional activity for New South Wales as well as 49.7% investor loans.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Sydney property market marches on to new heights, and unlike in the previous boom cycle of a decade ago higher interest rates are not anywhere to be seen on the horizon in order to slow the market down (and vacancy rates remain much lower today too) - this cyclical boom will have to die of all age and of its own accord or be slowed by regulation.</p>
<p> </p>
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Sydney's property market reaches new heights

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Average loan sizes took a knock back in September 2018, both for investors and owner-occupiers, although the average loan size remained higher than a year earlier (substantially so for first-time buyers), so perhaps this in itself isn't all that surprising under tighter lending conditions.</p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bxxzaICFUWk/W-dWLQiV_iI/AAAAAAAAsyE/LZZIlGnEfz0aTGbUPXMg9XKFHBKyGuutACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bxxzaICFUWk/W-dWLQiV_iI/AAAAAAAAsyE/LZZIlGnEfz0aTGbUPXMg9XKFHBKyGuutACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1380"></a></p>
<p><span>It doesn't matter if you're borrowing at a rate of 4 per cent or even lower today, you'll still be assessed at 7¼ per cent, so there's oodles of headroom, but mortgage processing seems to have become a painstaking process and transaction volumes have crashed.</span></p>
<p><strong>Frozen fever</strong></p>
<p>The weak ABS housing finance figures - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/housing-finance-smashed" target="_blank">see here</a> - don't pick up the full extent of this yet, especially since there are still thousands of apartments settling from off-the-plan purchases, but the apartments pipeline has shrunk quite dramatically of late so the line in the chart below will continue to fall through 2019.</p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NSCHgfvGr1w/W-dWLzhUQGI/AAAAAAAAsyI/2pcJj36ptkwCZXstlXjoC_LxGT9q288eQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NSCHgfvGr1w/W-dWLzhUQGI/AAAAAAAAsyI/2pcJj36ptkwCZXstlXjoC_LxGT9q288eQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1354"></a></p>
<p>It's not all doom and gloom for realtors, or property owners, especially around some of the regional markets. </p>
<p>And the urban services economy is buzzing with people and employment, so some properties with a scarcity value are still faring well with mortgage rates so much lower than they used to be. </p>
<p>There was an auction just across the street from our place <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-pyrmont-129585290" target="_blank">in Sydney yesterday</a> with Cooley's auctioneers reporting a whopping 41 bids and a thumping price tag of $2.675 million, implying that borrowers with equity and of high credit quality are being treated with reverence by increasingly twitchy lenders.</p>
<p>I don't go to Melbourne much unless I have to (kidding lol...I'm down there next week), but the <a href="http://www.catebakos.com.au/sundayblog/the-correlation-between-property-scarcity-and-auction-result/" target="_blank">experts in the know down there</a> will doubtless report a similar story about demand and scarcity value. </p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, many parts of the housing market are being smoked, volumes have been crunched, and they'll be plenty of real estate agents seeking alternative forms of employment in 2019, if they aren't already. </p>
<p>Non-bank lenders have alleviated some of the pressure, though volumes were down here too in September. </p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jCv9kDxCafs/W-deCU2gi2I/AAAAAAAAsyg/sz8G6eOtlV89m1Ty6lnVc_-VnK6LjcHRQCLcBGAs/s1600/Nonbanks.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jCv9kDxCafs/W-deCU2gi2I/AAAAAAAAsyg/sz8G6eOtlV89m1Ty6lnVc_-VnK6LjcHRQCLcBGAs/s640/Nonbanks.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1357"></a></p>
<p>The Treasurer has evidently become a tad agitated, requesting that banks keep their lending channels open to prevent money growth from seizing up more than it already has. </p>
<p>Financial markets haven't been unduly fazed, on the whole, presumably adopting a benign stance in the belief that an engineered slowdown in lending could be relaxed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile bank stock valuations have largely followed international leads through reporting season, following an initial relief rally after the draft Royal Commission report was released. </p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I-qru6R6i7Y/W-dg9oi5hMI/AAAAAAAAsys/dsfNvbv7jyYnVcWNF_ebCQEh41_rQwhIACLcBGAs/s1600/CBA2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I-qru6R6i7Y/W-dg9oi5hMI/AAAAAAAAsys/dsfNvbv7jyYnVcWNF_ebCQEh41_rQwhIACLcBGAs/s640/CBA2.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1338"></a></p>
<p>Finally, spare a thought for those that bought units off-the-plan in some of the big inner-city tower block developments, with settlement valuations often coming in way short of purchase prices as valuers look nervously over their shoulders. </p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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