<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

<p data-end="320" data-start="79">Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.</p>

<p data-end="638" data-start="322">The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.</p>

<p data-end="864" data-start="640">Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]</p>

<p>Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."</p>

<p>“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.</p>

<p>“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]</p>

<p>The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.</p>

<p>“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]</p>


Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Home Loans

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<p><span>Tim Mackay, principal of financial advice firm Quantum Financial, says property investors struggling to pay higher demanded deposits on off the plan purchases through their SMSFs need to be careful they do not breach Australian Taxation Office rules.</span></p>
<p><span>Abrupt lending policy changes on required deposit has meant some buyers have lost out on valuable tax deductions given the top up deposit balance was a non-concessional (or after-tax) contribution. </span></p>
<p><span>His other recommendations to Australian Financial Review readers included:</span></p>
<ul>
<li><span>Consider if the investment is worth keeping. It might be worth cutting losses rather than losing generous tax concessions or being forced to liquidate scheme assets on unfavourable terms;</span></li>
<li><span>Reduce costs;</span></li>
<li><span>Sell other assets in the fund to reduce the debt;</span></li>
<li><span>Contribute more to your super – either through personal contributions or salary-sacrificing (making pre-tax contributions);</span></li>
<li><span>Seek a better deal on your loan;</span></li>
<li><span>Review existing advice and question how it allowed you to get into mortgage stress.</span></li>
</ul>
<p>Last week it was suggested one in three off-the-plan Bankstown district investors are facing financial distress completing purchase of their properties because of tough new lending rules for higher deposits.</p>
<p><span>Chan &amp; Naylor partner Peter Ristevski's analysis suggested he had not had anyone's sale fall through yet with second mortgages being secured at higher interest rates.</span></p>
<p><span>Financial planner Sam Henderson, chief executive of Henderson Maxwell, says he thinks buying a property using SMSF was a great idea for a solid long-term strategy, but only for the right people and under the right conditions. </span></p>
<p><span>"The idea of an off-the-plan development diminishes my excitement owing to potential onerous sunset clauses (whereby developers can change the terms and price), banks altering their lending criteria between exchange of contract and settlement, developers potentially going bust and the common issue of being surrounded by scores of similar properties in overdeveloped suburbs," he suggested to AFR readers.</span></p>
<p><span>"Consider, for example, that you buy a $700,000 property and put down your 10% deposit of $70,000.</span></p>
<p><span>"Let's assume the bank has agreed to fund your loan of 80% (thereby allowing you to use $140,000 of your fund as a deposit) and that you will fund the stamp duty via your next contribution of $30,000.</span></p>
<p><span>"Let's say the bank changes its view on SMSF loans and drops its LVR (loan to value ratio) so it will lend to 60 per cent, as many of the banks do for commercial properties.</span></p>
<p><span>"Well, you've just done your $70,000 deposit!"</span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Off the plan SMSF investors face challenges under higher deposit era

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<p><span>The past few weeks have been hectic for real estate with headlines about a possible shift in market sentiment as the major banks all increased their home loan rates and we also saw a drop in auction clearance rates below 65%. </span></p>
<p><span>And so somewhat lost among all of these headlines is the news about the passage into law of the long-awaited review of Strata Title Legislation in NSW.</span></p>
<p><span>The Strata Scheme Management Bill and Strata Scheme Development Bill have both passed the Legislative Council. The two bills contain more than 90 changes to how strata agreements are governed.</span></p>
<p><span>Long after the other headlines start to fade these changes are going to impact the market for many decades.</span></p>
<p><span>I think that the correctly described as a ‘once-in-a-generation reform’ to the state’s strata title laws after much debate will come into force from July 2016. The Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation (interesting title) Victor Dominello who has been responsible for the bills, said that the laws are an important step forward for the state.</span></p>
<p><span>He noted that more than two million people live and work in strata and that the new laws will cater for the needs of 21st century strata living.</span></p>
<p><span>“The new laws will modernise collective decision making processes, increase protections against unresolved building defects and improve out-dated regulation impacting on renovations,” he said.</span></p>
<p><span>The key changes have received a deal of publicity and have also attracted a lot of emotional comment but I think the case and need to renew many older buildings has been fairly established.</span></p>
<p><span>Across Sydney there are pockets of development from the 1960’s and 1970’s that fall a long way behind modern standards and amenity. If we fail to make it possible to redevelop these buildings then this paralysis can have a detrimental impact on urban standards and possibly create disadvantaged areas, where values fall and we see a cycle of neglected investment. In a dynamic city this sort of urban renewal is vital to the city’s livability.</span></p>
<p><span>Now of the nearly 100 changes in the updated legislation, most notable is the requirement that only 75% of owners will need to agree for an apartment building to be sold.</span></p>
<p><span>One of the other key points addressed is a move making it easier for owners to complete cosmetic and minor renovations to their apartments, again this is important to keep apartments modern and with the services and facilities that owners require without being consumed by over regulation and far too much red-tape.</span></p>
<p><span>The changes will also prevent proxy farming, and while the extent of proxy farming is hard to measure, it can often be used to set up long-term appointments and policies in a building that do not always work for the owners. This change should be a welcome move.</span></p>
<p><span>Then we see another key change, which has also attracted a great deal of industry comment, which will see the introduction of a defects bond to fix building defects early in new developments. In the past we have seen some poor quality buildings leaving the owners corporation with a major headache and on some counts big repair bills that sometimes came on top of big legal bills because of a disagreement with a developer or their insurance company.</span></p>
<p><span>The new bill has a requirement of developers to lodge a bond of 2% of the contracted price of the building as a form of security to fix any defective work.</span></p>
<p><span>Here again the changes should be welcome and should not be seen as a threat among well-regarded developers. The suggestion that the introduction of these bonds might further inflate prices is a bit of a bluff as experienced developers have to their credit always understood the importance of delivering quality buildings, and most already do so.</span></p>
<p><span>The new provisions have also taken on some house-keeping issues to tackle that can have an annoying or even detrimental impact on people’s daily lives. These include the addressing of the perennial issues of (illegal) parking, pets and smoke drift.</span></p>
<p><span>According to The Minister the over-riding objective has been to modernise our strata laws to better reflect the way people live and work in 2015 and beyond, and as everyone is aware the numbers of people living in strata developments is now massive and growing.</span></p>
<p><span>In some parts of Sydney in areas like Rhodes, Chatswood, the CBD, Zetland and Pyrmont, plus many other spots, the concentrate of apartments and the density of population really dictates that the rules need to be keeping up with the pace of modern development, and to date they have not.</span></p>
<p><span>It is more than 20 years since the last major amendments to strata law were made and over those two decades we have seen how and where many people live change dramatically. Today’s strata landscape is also much more varied than a three-level walk up building and now includes city high rises, sometimes very large scale buildings, townhouses, dual occupancies, offices, retirement villages, mixed use and tourism.</span></p>
<p><span>According to published figures there are currently over two million people, including 25% of Greater Sydney’s population, living or working in more than 75,000 strata schemes across NSW.</span></p>
<p><span>But what is a very interesting figure is the prediction that by 2040, half of all Sydneysiders will be living or working in strata and that single static alone underlines the urgency and importance of the current review. The new Strata Scheme Management Bill and Strata Scheme Development Bill follows a comprehensive community consultation, with over 3,000 individual submissions received.</span></p>
<p><span>With the bill soon to become law it’s a good idea to take a keen interest as the development industry and buyers are all going to be impacted for many years to come but I think the laws do go a long way to creating a better outcome for strata buyers and developers and their passage ends a long drawn out process.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><span><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></p>
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pchittenden-eLqUUC8TWW

New strata rules set to have big impact: Peter Chittenden

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australia's largest and most recently listed mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group (AFG) released its December 2015 quarter </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Mortgage Index</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, which now again includes figures at the state level.</span>
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<div> </div>
<div>The index, which is not seasonally adjusted, showed a solid 7 per cent increase in the volume of mortgages sold from the prior corresponding period, up from $12.9 billion in December 2014 to $13.8 billion last quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/14/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/14/AFG1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>This was in spite of the investor share of the market continuing to decline, with this sector slinking back down to a 6 year low.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor loan volumes are expected to stabilise from here, with the impact of tighter lending rates for investors and tougher lending criteria now largely baked in. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/14/AFG2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The investor segment of the market had clearly become overheated in 2013, contributing to slowing rental growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, AFG recorded more than $5 billion of mortgages written in New South Wales for the third time, as the state saw mortgage volumes up by 12 per cent from one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series adds further weight to the suggestion that the Melbourne market may be set for a bright 2016, with mortgage volumes in Victoria up by nearly 18 per cent over the year in rising to a new high, despite the final quarter of the year being a short one due to the Christmas break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mortgage volumes written also increased by 13 per cent over the year in South Australia, but have declined in Western Australia (-10 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-21 per cent respectively).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/14/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/14/AFG3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mortgage sizes have soared</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The average size of mortgage written continues to rise, up by 20 per cent over the past three years to a fresh all-time high of $476,479.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/14/AFG4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/14/AFG4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The average size of mortgage written in NSW increased to a new high of $583,708, with mortgage sizes also rising by around 7 per cent over the past year in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/14/AFG6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/14/AFG6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While AFG's index may be distorted by changes in market share, meaning that users should be wary of premature extrapolation, the figures do provide further hints as to what to expect in the year ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is evident that markets will increasingly be driven forward by owner-occupiers rather than investors, while the market in Melbourne continues to defy...well, people like me, I suppose, who felt that the market have may peaked some years ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, APRA's cooling measures appear to have worked and the property market seems to have calmed after the frenzy we saw around April and May last year, particularly in Sydney.<br><br>That said, mortgage volumes - and particularly mortgage sizes - have to date remained very high, with owner-occupiers plugging most of the gap being left by investors. Accordingly, we might expect to see a more sustainable and balanced market going forward in 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Our mortgages are getting bigger: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><span>The financial media had an arousing day extrapolating the January Housing Finance figures.</span></p>
<p><span>Although I didn't have time to read all of the articles, the headlines variously describing these data as confirming a housing downturn, a fall, a cooling, a sinking, and for reasons that weren't entirely clear, even "home loans dropping at their fastest rate in 7 years"!</span></p>
<p><span>In actual fact, home loan activity hit its highest level in 7 years last month, while the investor sector has slowed.</span></p>
<p><span>Whatevs, it's fairly typical for total dwelling finance to decline by 20 to 30 percent in January as Aussies focus on the beach or their Christmas turkey, so there is obviously a fair bit of reliance on how accurate or otherwise the seasonal adjustments prove to be.</span></p>
<p><span>Such data series tend to jump around a bit from month to month, so the important thing to do is follow the trend, and to observe the data in conjunction with other metrics.</span></p>
<p><span>The US nonfarm payroll figures represent a fine case in point, with a decline in average earnings of 3 cents in February variously intimated to be one of the biggest falls since Niagara, despite the fact that earnings had increased by 12 cents only in January.</span></p>
<p><span>Back to the housing figures, the original data showed total dwelling finance of $25 billion, which was only slightly higher than the total for the preceding January, underscoring the dampening of investor activity.</span></p>
<p><span>That said, the chart of original data below may simply be mimicking what happened to CoreLogic-RP Data's mortgage index, which observed platform events declining sharply for the same period before recovering strongly in more recent weeks.</span></p>
<p><br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5lbDdHSvarE/Vt_gJZwpUTI/AAAAAAAAbv8/XWUp4pI-wZs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="344"><br><br><span>The most obvious explanation for the pullback is that the crackdown on investor finance has run interference on the pace of lending to that sector, as lenders continue to apply more rigorous criteria.</span><br><br><span>Certainly I've come across numerous examples of stymied demand relating to would-be investors who are needing to try several avenues in order to secure finance, and many are having to wait to secure loans (for example, needing time to save larger deposits, or to prove higher levels of serviceability).</span><br><br><span>With interest rate settings as low as they are, there is evidently an enormous pent up demand for investment loans, but APRA has quite sensibly decided not to let the investor sector get any further ahead of itself.</span><br><br><span>There is litte such weakness to be found in the owner-occupier lending sector, with the value of commitments in January well up on last year, and some +42.3 percent higher than the equivalent figure for January 2012.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cclSLOcaxcY/Vt_gJV7wfrI/AAAAAAAAbv4/sov-6_hRf8Q/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356"></div>
<p><br><span>There has been a high volume of refinancing in recent weeks, which muddies the macro picture somewhat.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction boom set to peak</span></strong><br><br><span>The residential construction boom and its associated multiplier effect still has legs, but in reality the industry is already going like the clappers in Sydney and some other cities, to the extent that labour costs have spiked to reflect an industry operating at close to its full capacity.</span><br><br><span>This dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity - nor should it - and the downturn in the residential construction sector will likely begin to reveal itself at some point later in the calendar year.</span><br><br><span>While the data charted below are only indicative rather than definitive, they do appear to support the notion of an imminent peak.</span><br><br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L8_4S3F8M0E/Vt_gLG6bmyI/AAAAAAAAbwI/j2F3V_q7ICU/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><br><span>Similarly the number of new dwellings financed is tracking at a historically high level, but also looks peaky.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BLyGNP_wCq0/Vt_gKf8ZhKI/AAAAAAAAbwA/Mb0ctNU9yT4/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First timers &amp; renovations</span></strong><br><br><span>First homebuyers accounted for only an estimated 15.1 percent of dwellings financed in January which is below the long run average, though the Australian Bureau of Statistics does note that this figure is only an estimate since some lenders are not yet reporting correctly.</span><br><br><span>Although conventional wisdom is that first homebuyers are inactive being priced out of the market, comprehensive surveys carried out by </span>Digital Finance Analytics<span> (DFA) have shown that many are opting to get onto the housing ladder as investors, as those of us active in the market are only too aware.</span><br><br><span>Actual first time buyer purchases have been tracking at around 13,000 per month in line with the long run average, with DFA surveys finding that many are using the "bank of Mum and Dad" (and some fortunate souls are buying for cash, thereby escaping being captured by the housing finance data entirely).</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U-3JNA5yqVM/Vt_gKGkaAwI/AAAAAAAAbwE/b2EM0peyfWA/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366"><br><br><span>Finally, it has taken a heck of a long time to get things moving but major renovations activity is at last picking up as households enjoy the wealth effect of cheaper mortgage repayments and rising dwelling prices.</span><br><br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-28gyyeZ7js8/Vt_gJZoxSLI/AAAAAAAAbv0/O-qKsnqK880/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352"><br><br><span>Sydney clearly leads the way in terms of renovation activity as one would expect. Outstanding research once gain by CoreLogic-RP Data featured on yesterday's national news showed that 18 of the top 20 suburbs with the highest percentage of home equity are unsurprisingly located in Sydney. The other two are in Melbourne.</span><br><br><span>The 20 suburbs and towns with the most depressed levels of home equity read like a list of yesterday's regional property hotspots, including but not limited to: Moranbah, Gladstone, Mackay, Whitsundays, Bundaberg, Mount Isa, Rockhampton, Whyalla, Greater Geraldton, and Muswellbrook.</span><br><br><span>Just as in regional New Zealand, the commodities crash has hit much of regional Australia hard.</span><br><br><span>Interestingly, we are presently in the midst of a commodity price mini-boom with oil prices rebounding and iron ore futures again hitting "limit up" during today's trade to hit their highest level since July 2015.</span><br><br><span>While this is potentially a welcome windfall for the budget, don't be headfaked by it - the resources construction collapse </span>still has a long, long way to run<span>, and the deleterious impacts will be felt across many regions for years to come.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><span>Overall, it would be premature extrapolation to read too much in the January figures, even though the trend certainly points towards a considerably lower level of investor activity in 2016 than was the case at the mid-2015 peak.</span><br><br><span>As always, it also pays to recognise that there is one singular "housing market", since some markets are performing very strongly, helping to offset the poor perfomance in many resources regions.</span><br><br><span>News of a downturn would certainly be news to residents of Kingsford in Sydney, where an </span>unrenovated dump<span> on a 499.5 square metre plot sold for a an outrageous $3,065,000 on Saturday (this was more than $1 million over the reserve price, and note the price guide!), having previously fetched $1,015,000 back in March 2008, when many commentators were predicting a price correction.</span><br><br><span>Surry Hills, an inner Sydney suburb with a vacancy rate of just 1.1 per cent, has recorded a series of sprightly results, and doubtless there are plenty of other examples in the inner suburbs of Sydney. House prices in Brisbane are also rising, as I noted yesterday.</span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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Were the January housing figures really that bad? Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>A pretty solid result for housing finance in May with seasonally adjusted total finance rising by 1.3 percent to just over $33 billion.  </p>
<p>Looking at the smoother trend figures, total housing finance has been fairly flat now for about two years, since macroprudential measures first kicked into gear. </p>
<p>The value of investors loans continues to moderate - with home loans by and large picking up the slack - and this rebalancing has manifested itself recently in rising rents in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-7509613100154899672" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>First homebuyers accounted for 14 per cent of commitments in May, a slight rise. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But the difference between the average loan size for first homebuyers at $318,000 and non first-homebuyers, which has surged again to $390,100, has blown out to its widest ever margin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even smoothing the figures for the last year shows the dichotomy, and it's making life challenging for first homebuyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Homebuyer commitments are trending higher in the two most populous states, largely offsetting corresponding declines in investor loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New dwelling sales surge</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of new dwellings purchase by owner-occupiers has risen strongly to sit at close to the highest ever monthly level, matched only on one occasion during the days of financial crisis stimulus. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><span>It seems that developers in Queensland have successfully convinced more homebuyers to buy new.</span>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/12/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/12/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><span>Lending for the construction of new dwellings was also strong, at its best level since early 2015.</span><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, a solid if unspectacular result, with the average loan size for non-first homebuyers blazing higher again to sit just a fraction below the 2015 record level of $390,700.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor loans continued to moderate as expected, and there will be a further slowing to come in the following months. </div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Tough times for first homebuyers: Pete Wargent 

<html><body>
<p class="p1">The seasonally adjusted number of home loans ticked down moderately by 0.5 percent to 54,468 in March 2017.</p>
<p class="p3">However the average loan size increased solidly, so combined with a modest 0.8 percent increase in investment lending to $13 billion total housing finance increased by 0.9 percent to $32 billion in the month. </p>
<p class="p3">Headlines variously and confusingly described the result as stronger, growing, dropping, and on the slide.</p>
<p class="p3">But at the national level at least, the trend has been pretty flat. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">APRA only announced its latest round of curbs on interest-only lending at the end of the month of March, so the true impacts thereof will only be seen in the coming months.</p>
<p class="p3">However, the figures do suggest that lenders were already applying the brakes to investor loans to some extent before the regulatory announcement.</p>
<p class="p3">The average loan size for first homebuyers increased from $308,900 in February to $316,300 in March.</p>
<p class="p3">Meanwhile the average loan size for non-first homebuyers lifted from $360,600 to $375,800 in the month, though remaining some way below the record highs of 2015.</p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">The figures for new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers were partly revised for 2012 and 2013, giving the below chart an altogether different feel than it had previously.</p>
<p class="p3">Some upbeat news for the housing market is that the number of new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers has surged to the highest level since June 2007. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">Looking around the traps, both the number and value of home loans has continued to trend down in Western Australia. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">I'll take a look at investor loans by state on Wednesday this week.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><strong style="font-size: 12.16px;">First homebuyers flounder</strong></p>
<p class="p3">The number of first homebuyer loans jumped by 20.5 percent to 7,946 in March from 6,596 in February, although this was largely a seasonal move.</p>
<p class="p3">The annual number of first homebuyers has trended steadily down since 2014, when the market had stabilised after the first homebuyer stimulus was withdrawn. </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A5.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p class="p3">Many prospective first homebuyers in Sydney have opted to buy investment properties instead in the face of such a challenging market, and this is reflected in the decline in activity in New South Wales. </p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/15/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p3"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/15/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p3">The annual number of first homebuyers in Western Australia has also declined by 28 percent since October 2013 despite falling prices in the state's capital city, although there was perhaps the first hint of a bounce in March. </p>
<p class="p3"><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p class="p3">Overall this was a pretty solid result for housing finance in March, but since the figures pre-date APRA's latest round of curbs it will be more important to follow what plays out in the coming months. </p>
<p class="p3">Developers will be somewhat heartened to see the number of owner-occupier commitments to buy new dwellings rising close to their highest ever level in recent months. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Housing finance steady pre-APRA: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The construction sector is in a cyclical downturn led by the housing sector, where conditions have swung from boom-to-bust.</p>
<p>Private new home building work fell by a further 3.4%, meeting our expectations, to be 11.6% below the peak of mid-2018. Renovations were broadly flat, -0.2%. The housing downturn still has further to go and will weigh on conditions into 2020.</p>
<p>Public works returned to adding to growth, increasing by 5.4% in the quarter. That follows a moderation over the past year (down 13.4%) reflecting a gap in the investment project pipeline. Our view has been and remains that public investment will be supportive of growth over the near-term, with governments continuing to commit to additional projects.</p>
<p>Private infrastructure provided a downside surprise, declining by 4.6%. The outlook is for some improvement. Commencements have picked-up somewhat (eg some iron ore projects have proceeded in response to the recent elevated prices) and the work pipeline has increased – pointing to an emerging lift in activity during the year ahead.</p>
<p><em><strong>ANDREW HANLAN </strong>is a senior economist for Westpac</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Construction activity declined for a 5th consecutive quarter: Andrew Hanlan

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<div>The latest APRA figures showed that loans with redraw and offset facilities have continued to flourish and become more popular than ever before. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But check these two charts out below. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, a massive $44 billion of loans of $96 billion new residential housing loans written in the June quarter were accounted for by interest only products.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/IO2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/26/IO2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And secondly, to put this in its recent historical context, $44 billion reprsents an incredible 45.8 per cent of new loan exposures written.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/IO1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/26/IO1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">In summary, it is true that offsets and redraw facilities are included in new loan products more than has ever been the case before.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">However, with somewhere now approaching half of new loans written not requiring immediate repayments against the loan principal there appears to be an increasingly heavy reliance on borrowers managing their personal finances responsibly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Interest only loans boom: Pete Wargent

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<p>Misinformation is the scourge of real estate consumers.</p>
<p>And too much of it comes from people who present themselves in public as experts providing “analysis” when in reality they’re mis-diagnosing situations and adding to the media pipeline of misinformation.</p>
<p>It’s extraordinary how often economists, mortgage brokers, researchers, valuers, Reserve Bank officials and others do that.</p>
<p>This connects to my comments earlier in the week about the way many commentators arrive at their conclusions: if Event A coincides with Event B, then Event A must have caused Event B.</p>
<p>That’s about as sophisticated as real estate analysis gets for most cases.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Therefore, if low interest rates coincided with Sydney’s boom, then low interest rates are obviously the cause of the Sydney boom. This is accepted as fact by almost everyone out there among the chattering classes with almost-knowledge of real estate.</p>
<p>Question: why have low interest rates not caused equivalent booms in Perth, Canberra, Darwin, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and most of regional Australia?</p>
<p>Many markets have been going backwards, un-stimulated by the level of interest rates.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Here are some other things Sydney’s property boom coincided with: the change in state government in 2011, the subsequent massive rise in infrastructure spending and the surge in the NSW economy to No.1 in the nation. Perhaps those events had something to do with it.</span></p>
<p>Here’s another thought. The other city market that’s shown some buoyancy in recent years is Melbourne, though not as much as Sydney. Is it not relevant that Victoria’s economy has been the No.2 in the nation, not as strong as NSW but above the national average? Melbourne also has a fairly big infrastructure spend happening, though not as big as Sydney’s.</p>
<p>The relative performances of the property markets in those cities have mirrored the health of their respective state economies and their outlay on new infrastructure, which generates economic activity, jobs and housing demand.</p>
<p>The issue of the week has been housing finance data and how it has been interpreted by commentators with almost-knowledge of property.</p>
<p>Regulatory authorities have introduced “macro prudential measures” to slow down property investor activity. The latest ABS data on housing finance shows a decline in lending to investors.</p>
<p>There’s only one conclusion a reasonable observer could draw from that, right? Clearly the regulatory measures are working. I mean, duh!</p>
<p>Well, that’s what you would say if you’re a business with a lust for limelight and your vision extends no further than the length of your upturned nose.</p>
<p>And multiple commentators rushed out press releases saying just that, including the ever-hungry RateCity which claimed: “Today's sharp drop in investor housing commitments shows that differential pricing is having a dramatic effect on the housing market.”</p>
<p>There were many others expressing similar views. APRA makes announcement, lenders lift interest rates for investors, investors stop taking out loans – simple, obvious and clear-cut.</p>
<p>Except it’s not.</p>
<p>Investors haven’t stopped staking out loans. They’ve switched the status of their borrowing from investor to home-buyer, thereby accessing cheaper rates and easier terms.</p>
<p>The apparent fall in investor borrowing reflects a trend towards reclassifying loans as owner-occupier. Most commentators have missed that.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>“The (APRA) moves are having a dual impact: weakening investor loans but indirectly boosting owner-occupier loans as these become more appealing for both lenders and borrowers that have the option of purchasing as an owner-occupier,” Westpac economist Matthew Hassan says.</p>
<p>And National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says that while there appears to be a decline in investor lending, “caution is warranted”.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">A dose of caution generally, before commentators rush to shallow analysis in the pursuit of profile, would be welcome.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Investors switching borrowing status: Terry Ryder

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<div>The ABS produced its muchly awaited revised first home buyer numbers yesterday. </div>
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<div>As flagged previously, the numbers are a bit lower than previously reported, although the month to month movements remained broadly consistent with what we have already seen. </div>
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<div>The statistics more or less confirm what we already knew: that there are fewer first homebuyer loans being written than there were in the lead up to the financial crisis (though actually not that many fewer Australia-wide). </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div>Unfortunately the figures don't shed any light on how many first-time buyers have elected to buy an investment property instead of a home (which the NAB survey implies more than accounts for the downward shift in first homebuyer numbers). </div>
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<div>And nor does these series cover first homes bought without finance i.e. for cash, thanks to the so-termed 'bank of Mum and Dad'.</div>
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<div>Unlike Britain, Australia doesn't have agonizingly high rates of inheritance tax, and thus in my opinion inequality is likely to increase in favour of those lucky folks with wealthy parents. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Sydney effect</span></strong></div>
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<div>Drilling down to the state level, not at all surprisingly the impact of higher prices on first homebuyers has been felt most keenly in Sydney. </div>
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<div>Not that we actually needed a graph to confirm this!<br><br>Even the majority of middle-aged peeps have given up trying to buy homes in the more desirable suburbs, while investors have practically been running riot since mid-2012. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br>Elsewhere there doesn't seem to me to have been all that much of a change.<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Loan sizes revised down</span></strong></div>
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<div>The data for the average first homebuyer loan size has been revised down for recent years, although the chart patterns still tend to mirror the averages for non-first homebuyers. </div>
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<div>One interesting observation here is that the average first homebuyer loan size over the past ten years has not increased at the same rate as median house prices. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>You could read any number of things into this statistic (and no doubt people will!). </div>
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<div>For example, the figures could support the recently held argument that parents are tipping in far greater deposits than they were during 2008 and 2009, being the period when the first home owners grant (FHOG) was doubled. </div>
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<div>It has to be said that the divergence does seem to begin at the right time for that to be the case.</div>
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<div>Anyhoo, here are the figures at the state level, which I've just tidied up on a 3mMA basis to smooth out some of the jagged edges (the chart'd give you a headache otherwise). </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div>First homebuyers look to be steadily gearing up again in Queensland, and particularly in Tassie of late, as the Hobart market tightens and rents rise.  </div>
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<div>In 2014, first homebuyers in Western Australia were taking on larger loans on average than anywhere in the country. </div>
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<div>And in 2015, the Northern Territory became the very epicentre of first homebuyer extravagance. </div>
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<div>This is no longer the case - in either location. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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