A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

COVID-19

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The reopening of cafes has been one of the highlights of relaxed COVID-19 restrictions for many Australians. During lockdowns, <a href="https://www.escape.com.au/destinations/australia/victoria/during-coronavirus-aussies-turn-to-takeaway-coffee-for-comfort/news-story/dd84dc1b513ac6f5748f011fab01efa3" target="_blank">long queues for takeaway coffee</a> were testimony to caffeine’s relevance to our lives.
Yet the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">precarious employment</a> of so many hospitality workers meant hundreds of thousands of casual café workers and café owners <a href="https://www.hospitalitymagazine.com.au/accommodation-food-services-hardest-hit-by-job-losses/" target="_blank">lost work</a>. Rents and mortgages were suspended or lost, upturning countless lives. At the other end of the coffee supply chain, many coffee farmers in poorer countries, who were already struggling to make a living, are doing it even tougher.
The pandemic has exposed the widening wealth gap in our global economy, and nowhere is this better illustrated than by our daily coffee fix. The multi-billion-dollar global coffee industry relies on vulnerable workers at both ends of the supply chain: the café worker serving your coffee and the struggling farmer who grew your coffee beans.
It’s an industry <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/p/pendergrast-grounds" target="_blank">steeped in its colonial past</a>, whose massive profits were <a href="https://perfectdailygrind.com/2019/03/slavery-specialty-discussing-coffees-black-history/" target="_blank">built on the back of African slave labour</a>.
<h2>An unequal business</h2>
Coffee is big business, mostly for coffee merchants in affluent countries. It’s among the world’s most-traded commodities and we consume nearly <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/292595/global-coffee-consumption/" target="_blank">10 million tons of coffee a year</a>. That’s about <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/the-world-s-top-coffee-consuming-nations-and-how-they-take-their-cup" target="_blank">2.25 billion cups a day</a> worldwide. Since 2000 global consumption has <a href="https://icocoffeeorg.tumblr.com/post/83000404043/global-coffee-consumption-has-increased-by-25" target="_blank">increased by 38%</a>.
Over 80% of the world’s coffee comes from <a href="https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/Farmers-and-Workers/Coffee/" target="_blank">25 million small-scale farmers</a> and <a href="https://carto.com/blog/enveritas-coffee-poverty-visualization/" target="_blank">60% is produced by farmers on less than 5 hectares</a>. Many of them struggle to make a decent living.
Coffee’s production and consumption echo its <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Uncommon_Grounds?id=TUo981rkwkoC&amp;redir_esc=y" target="_blank">18th-century origins as a global industry</a>. It’s mostly consumed by people in affluent countries and produced by agricultural workers in the poorer global south.
The coffee industry’s business model is based on a type of neo-colonialism, dominated by a handful of transnational coffee merchants whose profits are bountiful. Plantation economies in developing countries were established by colonial empires whose use of slavery spearheaded the rapid growth of the industry.
The Spanish introduced the use of slaves from Africa in the Caribbean and Latin America. They were quickly followed by the Portuguese in Brazil, then British and French colonialists in the West Indies. African slaves were considered “<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=Z7-zAAAAIAAJ&amp;newbks=1&amp;newbks_redir=0&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;dq=%E2%80%9Crobust,+disease+resistant+and+productive%22&amp;q=%E2%80%9Crobust,+disease+resistant+and+productive%22&amp;hl=en&amp;redir_esc=y" target="_blank">robust, disease resistant and productive</a>” – physically superior to the local indigenous populations of the Americas, many of whom died from diseases such as cholera and smallpox.
<h2>Producers live with poverty and hunger</h2>
While the type of slavery that launched the coffee industry no longer exists, other inequities remain. Coffee producers are among the most vulnerable members of the supply chain. When we buy our coffee, most of us are unaware of the bean’s provenance and the arduous labour of workers in small-scale plantations.
It’s estimated almost half of the world’s smallholder coffee producers live in poverty. <a href="https://carto.com/blog/enveritas-coffee-poverty-visualization/" target="_blank">Most of them are in East Africa</a>, but others are in Latin America and Asia.
Many coffee farmers suffer chronic seasonal hunger. Unlike famine, this occurs between harvest seasons, when the previous year’s food stocks have dwindled, food prices are high and income is scarce.
The COVID-19 pandemic has <a href="https://perfectdailygrind.com/2020/06/why-food-security-is-a-coffee-industry-issue/" target="_blank">increased the scarcity of food supplies</a> that were already sporadic. The closure of national borders has further reduced access.
<h2>Trying to make the coffee trade fairer</h2>
In response to the industry’s inequities, many initiatives are seeking fairer and sustainable outcomes for coffee farmers and for the environment. Some have been in place for decades. Of the programs established by NGOs, governments, multinational companies and other organisations, <a href="https://fairtradeanz.org/for-consumers/what-is-fairtrade" target="_blank">Fair Trade</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_trade" target="_blank">Direct Trade</a> are among the better-known ones.
More recently, the 2007 <a href="http://www.ico.org/ica2007.asp#:%7E:text=The%20International%20Coffee%20Agreement%202007,definitive%20ly%20on%202%20February%202011" target="_blank">International Coffee Agreement</a> is designed to promote a more equitable coffee trade to support smallholder farmers throughout the world. To overcome problems such as very low wages, poor housing and gender inequality, to name a few, these schemes are by necessity site-specific. Despite some success stories, the complexity of the industry and the wide variety of contexts presents barriers to consistent equitable outcomes and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/6/2/17/htm" target="_blank">results are mixed</a>.
 
Another approach in the growing speciality coffee sector – independent cafes serving high-quality coffee – is upending traditional business models. An increasing number of entrepreneurs in affluent countries are forming direct partnerships with coffee farmers. The aim here is both ethical and business-focused: to ensure consistent bean quality and provide a fairer income for coffee producers through direct trade.
The supply chain of coffee and cafes is a complex network of producers, distributors and services. Like all industries affected by the pandemic, some operators will survive and others will go to the wall.
While the pandemic’s impact is an unfolding story, it has brought into sharper focus inequalities in a thriving industry. Fault lines are evident across both producing and consuming nations, with many of those who work in the plantations and in our cafes on the wrong side of the divide.
It might give us something to think about as we enjoy our next coffee from our local café.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143274/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emma-felton-143029" target="_blank">Emma Felton</a>, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Creative Industries Faculty, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dark-brew-coffee-covid-and-colonialism-have-left-millions-struggling-to-make-a-living-143274" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

A dark brew: coffee, COVID and colonialism have left millions struggling to make a living

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVERS
A <a href="http://productivity.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-08/Productivity_Commission_Green%20Paper_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">new report</a> from the New South Wales Productivity Commission (NSWPC) announces that “[higher] housing costs […] impose broader economic costs”. That chimes with our own <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">newly published research</a>. The implication is that Australia’s heavily capitalised housing market will weigh down economic recovery from the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic.
A niche group of economists and epidemiologists had <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-17/analysts-forecast-coronavirus-recession-what-comes-post-covid-19/12256246" target="_blank">warned</a> the world for decades that a pandemic would have devastating economic and social consequences. When it comes to Australia’s housing, though, the COVID-19 crisis has <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-lays-bare-5-big-housing-system-flaws-to-be-fixed-137162" target="_blank">only served to highlight</a> deep and long-standing faultlines.
The housing system has produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-policy-reset-is-overdue-and-not-only-in-australia-112835" target="_blank">triple crises</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-steps-towards-remaking-the-homelessness-system-so-it-works-for-young-people-136385" target="_blank">rising homelessness</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/focus-on-managing-social-housing-waiting-lists-is-failing-low-income-households-120675" target="_blank">growing queues</a> for <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/providers/housing/affordable/about" target="_blank">non-market, affordable housing</a> and the pervasive <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/australian-house-price-growth-outpaced-wage-growth-in-the-last-financial-year-data-shows-984662" target="_blank">affordability problems</a> for middle- and lower-income households who depend on the private housing market. All these pressures were building well before the pandemic.
However, a particularly cruel COVID-19 effect has been the concentration of pandemic impacts on public-facing economic sectors and jobs. <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-paid-young-women-the-grim-truth-about-who-this-recession-is-hitting-hardest-141892" target="_blank">Younger people and female employees</a> have been hit hardest. The fallout in the lower end of the labour market will only make existing pressures worse.
Australia is about to embark on an audacious economic and social experiment as it tries to wind back the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs temporarily protecting about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/jobkeeper-review" target="_blank">3.5 million people</a>. Treasury projections envisage a gradual withdrawal. In reality, especially if any eviction moratoria are allowed to lapse, the start of this process will likely trigger huge immediate challenges in managing the housing and homelessness fallout.
Beyond that, the recession will drive home the need for political leaders to more fully appreciate the integral role of housing in the economy. The housing system plays key roles in shaping economic productivity, stability and inequality.
<h2>How on earth did we get here?</h2>
For many decades economics-leaning policymakers have assumed the housing market is largely a well-functioning system driven by helpful economic forces. Most famously personified in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/whos-to-blame-for-rising-house-prices-we-are-actually-20161026-gsamj2" target="_blank">comments by</a> former prime minister John Howard, and very much in tune with <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/525/C2_The_housing_story_An_Australian_Perspective.pdf" target="_blank">dominant media messaging</a>, Australian governments have generally welcomed rising house prices as signifying consumer confidence. Even <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.5.4.167" target="_blank">academic researchers</a> and government analysts have cited house prices as a sign of the “success” of cities and regions.
More recently, ever-rising house prices have finally been recognised as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/economic-inequality-largely-boils-down-to-housing-inequality" target="_blank">a driver of wealth inequality</a>. The problem is linked to rising mortgage debt and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-18/household-debt-australia-world-champions/11682628" target="_blank">increasingly recognised</a> as likely to add to instabilities in the macro economy and financial system.
There are also growing policy concerns that city living is becoming too expensive. This in turn harms economic productivity. [<a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CITIES" target="_blank">OECD data</a>] show Australia is on a similar path to the US, with the metropolitan share of national GDP per capita falling in recent years.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Chart showing metropolitan GDP per capita as percentage of national value"></a>
Metropolitan GDP per capita has been declining in Australia and some other countries. Data: OECD, Author provided
<h2>How has policy thinking become so blurred?</h2>
The NSWPC report recognises that the combination of <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/research-advocacy/the-rental-affordability-snapshot" target="_blank">excessive rents</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-insecurity-of-private-renters-how-do-they-manage-it-77324" target="_blank">insecure tenure</a> can damage children’s educational attainment and prospects. Prices and rents are <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/metropolis-of-three-cities/liveability/housing-city/housing-more-diverse-and-affordable" target="_blank">particularly unaffordable in Sydney</a>, making it a more stressful place to live and work. Resulting migration to other parts of the country reduces employers’ access to the supply of willing and productive labour, thus damaging productivity.
But the NSWPC analysis of housing-to-economy interactions does not go anything like far enough. As <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our research</a> shows, Australia’s dysfunctional housing system results in a battery of other economically harmful impacts. These include:
<ul>
<li>
long-term policies that have diverted savings and investment into rising property and land prices, with minimal or no employment or productivity benefit
</li>
<li>
excessive rent and mortgage burdens <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-06.pdf" target="_blank">diverting household spending from other consumption</a> with greater productivity impacts
</li>
<li>
a dysfunctional housing system that reduces household savings for the longer term, as well as contributing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fall-in-ageing-australians-home-ownership-rates-looms-as-seismic-shock-for-housing-policy-120651" target="_blank">falling rates of home ownership</a> and personal asset accumulation for future generations of older people.
</li>
</ul>
Perhaps worst of all, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-18/household-debt-leaves-australians-working-longer-spending-less/11608016#:%7E:text=Australians%20have%20the%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20household%20debts.&amp;text=On%20an%20individual%20level%2C%2037,a%20problem%20for%20them%20personally." target="_blank">high private housing debt</a> in Australia is among the worst in the world. The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2018/09/25/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-October-2018" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/fiscal-policy-is-the-new-game-in-town-says-oecd-20180530-h10r2t" target="_blank">OECD</a> recognise this debt as a threat to financial and economic stability.
 
Economics students are taught the “paradox of thrift”: when an individual saves, it benefits them in the long run. When too many people save, it harms economic growth.
In a similar way, rising housing prices benefit owners of houses and/or investments. But when we scale up to the level of a locality, city, state or economy, rising prices have a profound negative impact.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356834/original/file-20200907-16-j1p6o4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Young couple in kitchen looking at household bills"> The impacts of high rents and mortgage debt on people’s behaviour have significant consequences for the economy. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-caucasian-family-having-debt-problems-550887700" target="_blank">Shutterstock</a>
<h2>Setting a new agenda</h2>
With all this in mind, <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our report</a> lays out a wide-ranging “housing and productivity” research agenda. The hope must be that the resulting evidence helps trigger the policy reboot needed to transform the housing system from being part of the problem to part of the solution.
Much more attention needs to be focused on how owners and renters adjust savings and spending as a result of excessive housing costs. Without knowing about these behavioural responses, it is impossible to design appropriate policies.
We must find ways to restore the housing prospects of younger and/or less affluent households. We must research the potential for schemes to help first home buyers with deposits, and assess how better credit scoring methods could reduce pressures on rental markets. This is particularly important because currently used credit scoring methods disproportionately reward access to wealth, and do not adequately capture important aspects of prospective borrowers’ consumption and saving behaviour.
Delayed home ownership entry or permanent exclusion have major long-term implications. Worryingly, the negative impacts on economic productivity and stability have been largely ignored to date.
The Grattan Institute <a href="https://theconversation.com/retiree-home-ownership-is-about-to-plummet-soon-little-more-than-half-will-own-where-they-live-115255" target="_blank">estimates</a> home-ownership rates for the over-65s will fall by 19% by 2056. The impacts on retirement incomes will be significant.
Policymakers haven’t planned for the inevitable rise in need for social housing from impoverished older private renters. The present system has glaringly failed to provide housing affordable for <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">more than half of Australia’s low income tenant population</a>. Acting on the mounting economic imbalances caused by the housing crisis could, at the same time, generate a more productive and stable economy.
Australian housing research and policy urgently needs a new economic conversation.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145437/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969">Hal Pawson</a>, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-randolph-147968" target="_blank">Bill Randolph</a>, Director, City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783" target="_blank">Chris Leishman</a>, Professor of Housing Economics, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/duncan-maclennan-446466" target="_blank">Duncan Maclennan</a>, Professorial Research Fellow in Urban Economics, UNSW; Professor of Strategic Urban Management and Finance, University of St Andrews; Professor in Public Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-glasgow-1269" target="_blank">University of Glasgow</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-covid-well-need-a-rethink-to-repair-australias-housing-system-and-the-economy-145437" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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After COVID, we'll need a rethink to repair Australia's housing system and the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Plenty of data suggests certain rental markets have deteriorated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
CoreLogic data showed a 0.8% decline in national rent values from the end of March to the end of August, with more acute falls in the unit markets of Sydney and Melbourne, where rent values have fallen 4.2% and 4.4% respectively over the same period.
The closure of international borders has created a shock to rental demand, as most migrants rent when they initially come to Australia.
An estimated 21.1% of payroll jobs have been lost across food and accommodation services since the onset of the pandemic, an industry where people are more likely to rent.
The exposure of inner city areas to overseas migration, and inner-city workforces to accommodation and food services, has made these markets particularly susceptible to a rise in rental stock, and lower prices. But less data exists on the current dynamics between investors and landlords which is becoming increasingly important as we approach the expiry of a moratorium on evictions, which have already been extended in some states.
CoreLogic conducted a survey of property managers, and other real estate professionals using the RP Data Professional platform. The survey provides some insight into rental conditions across the rental properties overseen by these professions. 
A majority of agencies noted stable tenancy conditions, but a sizeable number saw increases in arrears, rent reduction requests and postponed payments Each survey question had an average of 169 respondents.
Against the wider population of property professionals using the application, it suggests a margin of error in the responses of 7% at a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were surveyed over mid-to-late August. Of the respondents, the majority were located in the most populous states of Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
Nearly half (48.6%) were real estate principals, while a further 35.8% were property managers. Across the larger states and territories, respondents by role were fairly uniform.
Furthermore, respondents managed rental portfolios of varying sizes. The majority of respondents (60.3%) managed a large portfolio of 100 or more rental properties, while a further 14.4% managed between 50 and 99 properties.
Key findings from the survey are presented below About the survey While the majority of respondents noted they had not seen a deterioration in rental conditions over the last two weeks, there is a sizable portion of agencies that had.
Almost a third of real estate professionals had seen an increase in requests for rent reductions, over a quarter had seen an increase in rental delinquencies, and 8.8% had noted an increase in evictions.
Of the real estate professionals who had noted an increase in rental delinquencies, 56.8% were based in Victoria, suggesting renewed restrictions across the state has impacted tenants’ ability to service rent.
Eliza Owen, Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Residential landlords inclined to keep rents steady during COVID-19 pandemic: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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The largest real estate group in Victoria holds great concern for many of its customers following the announcement by the Victorian Government that private inspections of properties will not be allowed until 26 October, 2020.
As managing director of the Ray White Group, I am asking the Victorian Government to reconsider its ban on private inspections.
Private inspections alone will enable the industry to safely serve its customers and ensure that the most important financial transactions of their lives can be undertaken without further delays.
It has been a devastating day. Many of our customers often need to move properties for fundamental reasons - be it illness, divorce or other hardships like unemployment. It’s been distressing to listen to the feedback from customers now facing significant financial consequences as a result of these restrictions.
It makes absolutely no sense to forbid private inspections when you compare the safe environment we can create compared to the activities that are being allowed.
Despite many customers needing to buy and sell, yesterday’s decision means that many customers will be racing the clock to achieve a settlement before Christmas, given the time required to market property and the usual settlement period. It also applies significant pressure to those searching for a rental property or trying to lease their property.
Our leading group has been inundated with calls from customers who are distraught at the prospect of further significant delays in the marketing and sales of their properties.
Distraught customers include 70-year-old Brenda Hemphill, of Ringwood, who has bone marrow cancer and just needs to find a rental property to move into on September 25.
"I have to be out of the house by September 25 as my husband’s business went bankrupt and forced the sale,” said Mrs Hemphill, who recently sold her unit at auction through Ray White Ringwood.
“I have bone marrow cancer and need to stay close to the hospital for treatments. We have had to sell our forever home and there’s no chance of delaying the settlement as my husband went bankrupt but the house was in both names,” Mrs Hemphill said.
“I cannot go and view any rental properties. I am imploring Dan Andrew to make life a bit easier for us as not everything is around the corner to get the things we need.”
Another distressed client named Judy, who has her home on the market with Ray White Chelsea, simply wants to move to Queensland to help support her daughter.
“My son-in-law is a pilot and due to COVID-19, he has been relocated to Sydney to fly freight planes and my daughter is a working mum trying to juggle work around their two year old child. I’m a nurse and I’m incredibly disappointed that real estate activity hasn’t been reinstated because with the correct COVID procedures in place, the risk to the public is absolutely minimal when privately inspecting a property,” Judy said.
“I’m all alone down here and my daughter is all alone up there, and she’s had her own emergencies. All I want is to be in a financial position to sell soon and go to her when the borders finally reopens.”
Based on the people we have spoken to, there would be thousands of Victorians in distress as a result of the announcement.
The Big Four Australian banks have all spoken at length about the size and extent of mortgage deferrals. While they confirmed that loan deferrals will be extended on a case-by-case basis to March 2021, the message is clear: “the property market is holding up well, you may want to make the decision to sell and put yourself on a stronger footing”. Unfortunately for our Victorian customers with mortgage deferrals in place, they will be unable to do so.
In collaboration with the industry, Ray White has developed a detailed set of operating protocols for conducting private inspections to keep our customers safe.
These include a single buyer and agent inspecting for less than 15 minutes, without touching surfaces and observing social distancing.
We are not aware of any community transmission occurring in Australia as a result of real estate activity, and we estimate that nearly 180,000 properties were listed and marketed across Australia since April. That includes conducting open homes and auctions throughout Sydney throughout July and August and private inspections in the lead up to the Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown, when community outbreaks were occurring in both cities.
We note that physical on-site meetings will be permitted from 13 September in the construction industry and display homes will be open by appointment only from 28 September. We see no difference between these settings (particularly for many properties that are vacant) and believe the same settings can be achieved in the real estate industry.
We call on the government to review its decision and would welcome any opportunity to work collaboratively, for the good of the Victorian community.
Dan White is the Ray White Group Managing Director
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Victorian real estate customers stuck in limbo: Dan White

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment surged by 18% from 79.5 in August to 93.8 in September.
We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future.
The rebound means the Index is now just 1.6% below the average over the six months prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in March.
Recall that the sharp fall in August was in reaction to the deteriorating virus situation in Victoria which had seen the state government announce hard lockdown measures at the start of the month including ‘Stage 4’ restrictions for Melbourne. But the more concerning message in August was the weakness in other states – in particular, the 15.5% slump in confidence in NSW.
The state had seen persistent clusters of virus cases and combined with Victoria’s problems, sparked concerns of a wider ‘second wave’ outbreak. To a lesser extent these fears were also apparent in Queensland where confidence tumbled 8.1%.
However, Victoria’s new cases slowed markedly once lockdown measures were in place and we saw no evidence of second waves in either NSW or Queensland.
It should be noted that the September survey was completed before the announcement by Victorian State Premier Andrews on September 6 of a slower than generally expected move towards reopening. The disappointment with that announcement could have been expected to dampen the 14.9% surge in confidence in Victoria, although frustration at the extended lockdown measures would likely still be more than outweighed by the clear success they have had in containing the virus.
We do not expect the Premier’s announcement would have had any impact on the positive results in other states.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Consumer sentiment roars back despite news of recession: Bill Evans

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Dan Andrews, the Victorian premier, was asked by journalists at his Wednesday press conference on the holding of open for inspections and auctions.
There is currently a late October and late November roadmap.
Melbourne real estate will fully open with safety measures from November 23, however from October 26, if the daily average of new cases is fewer than five and there are fewer than five cases with an unknown source in the prior fortnight, agents would be allowed to hold private inspections and to hold outdoor auctions subject to gathering limits.
The REIV requested a review.
Here is the response to questions put by journalists at the Wednesday press conference:
Q: They can’t have an inspection, let alone an auction, when can they start to expect –
Dan Andrews: I don’t have the roadmap in front of me, but I’ll find out when we can expect to have those inspections, open houses and auctions. Looking closer to a normal, it’s not next week. It needs to be, for safety reason. When you think about it, there are many people who attend auctions. There are many people who would see themselves as there to bid. There, are then – I had a house sell in our street not long ago, prior to COVID, so it is a little while ago actually. There were a lot of people there who had no intention of buying the place, could never have had registered, but turned up to have a look. And all of a sudden you have a gathering that is way too big and way too risky, in terms of spreading this virus. I know it’s not easy, I know there are many in the real estate community and vendors and people across the state, who are all in different settings. But just like pubs, cafes and restaurants, they wouldn’t be back to normal for long. You’ve gotta find that long-term normal and then lock that in.   
Q: Like pubs or cafes, restaurants, what if you could have inspections or at least people could come along and leave their details with their mobile number and their names.
Dan Andrews: Sure, let me come back to you. As I said, I haven’t got the document in front of me now. There’s a lot in it. But, I’ll get you an answer on when we think that will be able to happen. It did come back but of course the circumstance has changed.
Q: And are there any hardship exemptions on that? Can people apply, say if they are in financial dire straits, and they apply in some way, they can have a few people come over and look at the house, to sell the house?
Dan Andrew: Look, there are exemptions available to any of these rules and we have always welcomed people making their case. And there is a whole team dealing with that… On the specifics of that, I am not sure if I have had anybody come to us arguing that. But, I am more than happy to ask.
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Dan Andrews looks at Melbourne having open for inspections and auctions

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The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) has called for an independent review of the roadmap announced by the Andrews government when it comes to real estate listings. 
It labelled the Victorian government’s response as disproportionate, alarmist and short sighted. 
"There is no dispute that health and safety of the community is a priority and the roadmap out of the lockdown must ensure safety of all Victorians," the REIV advised.
"However, the path proposed jeopardises livelihoods and assets of hard-working Victorians who have abided by the rules and restrictions for over six months.
"Pushing the Victorian economy to the brink of collapse cannot be the only method of preventing the spread of coronavirus."
The REIV has criticised the lack of genuine consultation by government with business.  
"The irreversible impact of these decisions on the mental and financial well-being of ordinary people is being ignored.
"People who have saved and invested in an asset like property are unable to sell it to tide over these difficult times. 
The REIV urged the Federal government to immediately initiate an independent review of the roadmap, every Victorian is being impacted by the lack of vision and planning shown by the Andrews government.
The REIV president Leah Calnan said the decisions compounded the financial stress on Victorians and the Victorian economy. 
“We have cases being reported every day where people need to sell their property to get through these financial challenging times, and they can’t do so because the government won’t allow even a one-on-one inspection.” 
 
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REIV calls for an independent review of Victoria’s real estate roadmap

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Victorian government today announced the eagerly anticipated roadmap out of COVID-19 lockdown. It features several steps that reflect a much slower relaxing of restrictions than last time around.
While the government has provided a provisional time frame for the various steps, it is data, not dates, that will determine when restrictions are actually eased.
We applaud this strategy. The virus does not obey a timeline. Rather, we have to beat it down to a level at which easing of restrictions is safer.
What was announced?
Metropolitan Melbourne’s current stage 4 restrictions will be extended for two weeks, to September 27. But from 11:59pm on September 13, there will be a few key changes.
The nightly curfew will be shortened by one hour, and will be in place from 9pm to 5am. Also, two people or a single household can meet outdoors for two hours maximum, up from the previous one hour, for exercise or recreation.
For people living alone, and single parents with children under 18, there will be a “single person bubble” policy that allows them to designate one other person who can visit their home.
Regional Victoria is already faring better than Melbourne, and will have a faster timeline.
Premier Daniel Andrews wants to maximise the chance of getting to Christmas in something like stage 1, while minimising the chance of a third wave of infection that sends the state back into lockdown. This means staying in strict restrictions for longer, and easing out more gradually.
How did data influence the decision?
The Victorian government’s decision was based in part on the output of a model developed by researchers at the University of Melbourne and the University of New England. It simulates population movements in a simplified world, based on parameters that describe the spread of COVID-19 and people’s interactions with each other.
In the real world, these patterns are highly random. So the researchers ran the model 1,000 times, with thresholds for relaxing (or tightening) restrictions set at an average of 25, 10, and 5 cases per day on a fortnightly basis. The model could then report the probability, under a given set of policy settings, of having to lock Victoria down again before Christmas.
 
Opening up too soon is likely to cause a third wave. In simulations in which restrictions were eased once average daily cases dipped below 25 per day, there was a 62% likelihood of new lockdowns. But with restrictions retained until daily cases dropped below 5 daily cases, the lockdown likelihood was just 3%.
Viewed in that light, it is easy to see why the Andrews government opted to set strict criteria for lifting restrictions, knowing that short-term pain is better than the economic ravages of another lockdown in the long term.
What might hold Victoria back?
First, there’s the elephant in the room — the quality of Victorian contact tracing (especially in comparison to New South Wales). Living with the virus requires high-quality contact tracing. There’s no doubt contact tracing in Victoria has improved since June when our second wave started. There is therefore a real possibility that we may get the case numbers down faster, and hold off resurgences of case numbers more effectively or for longer than the modelling suggests.
Second, infection disease control in health care and aged care has not been up to scratch in Victoria (compared with, dare we say it again, New South Wales). These represent particularly dangerous settings. Older adults are much more likely to become severely ill with COVID-19, whereas health-care workers who become infected with the coronavirus risk infecting the most vulnerable and reduce health capacity when it is most needed.
And of course, health and aged care workers live in the community too, and if community restrictions are relaxed the virus will leak back out through family members and surge again. The Victorian government decided to deal with both community and health-care transmission simultaneously. We think that it is the right approach.
Is elimination still possible?
There were strong arguments for an explicit <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/probability-6-week-lockdown-victoria-commencing-9-july-2020-achieving-elimination">elimination strategy back in early July</a>, requiring “going hard” for a six-week lockdown. Unfortunately, Victoria didn’t go hard early enough. The government waited three weeks, numbers got out of control, and then we went into stage 4. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a huge missed opportunity.
The Grattan Institute is also <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">arguing strongly</a> for an explicit elimination strategy and much longer hard lockdowns. It argues this will result in better economic outcomes in the long run. An <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20185587v1">impressive modelling paper</a> by Australian National University researchers also supports the theory that elimination is better for both health and the economy in the long run (although this paper has not yet been peer-reviewed).
However, things have changed in the past two months. First, we are now closer to a vaccine, so in theory the long-term payoff for short-term pain will arrive sooner. Second, New Zealand (and Queensland) have taught us that elimination can be lost. Third, NSW has taught us you can live with the virus at low levels (so far). Fourth, the imminent border openings and hotspot strategy are not really consistent with the hard border controls needed to defend elimination in places that achieve it.
Andrews aptly termed the state’s strategy “aggressive suppression”. It may even achieve elimination, as the first wave effort so nearly did. We hope it does – but do not bank on it.
It’s in our hands now, both the government and citizens. With some good luck – and few would begrudge Victorians a little of that – the roadmap will pan out as planned.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145558/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laxman-bablani-1153311">Laxman Bablani</a>, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/driss-ait-ouakrim-1153309">Driss Ait Ouakrim</a>, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">original article</a>.
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Victorian government has set its sights on a 'COVID-normal' Christmas

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
One of the most striking responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the sudden shift of around half the workforce to working at home.
In many cases, this was combined with an equally sudden shift to home schooling.
Contrary to what might have been expected, working from home was one part of the pandemic response that went remarkably smoothly. Most kinds of office work continued almost as if nothing had changed.
Discussion of the crisis has mostly worked on the assumption that a return to something like the pre-crisis “normal” is both inevitable and desirable.
But the unplanned experiment we have been forced to undertake suggests we might have stumbled upon a massive opportunity for a microeconomic reform, yielding benefits far greater than those of the hard-fought changes of the late 20th century.
The average worker spends an hour on commuting every work day. Remarkably, this is a figure which has remained more or less stable since Neolithic times, a finding known as <a href="https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/marchettis-constant?rebelltitem=5#rebelltitem5" target="_blank">Marchetti’s Law</a>. (The same observation has been attributed to Bertrand Russell.)
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356223/original/file-20200903-16-ucfv9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356223/original/file-20200903-16-ucfv9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Marchetti’s Law says we spend about an hour travelling to work whatever the era.
If working from home eliminated an hour of commuting, without changing time spent on work or reducing production, the result would be equivalent to a 13% increase in productivity (assuming a 38-hour working work).
If half the workforce achieved such a gain, it would be equivalent to a 6.5% increase in productivity for the labour force as a whole.
For a comparison, let’s look at the radical microeconomic reforms of the 1990s, including privatisation, deregulation and national competition policy.
In 1995 the main advocate of these reforms, the Productivity Commission, then called the Industry Commission, estimated they would increase national income by <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/hilmer-reform-implications/hilmer.pdf" target="_blank">5.5%</a>.
In retrospect, that estimate appears to have been over-optimistic.
Although there was an upsurge in measured productivity growth in the mid-1990s, the total increase relative to the long-term trend was less than <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24125267_Stories_about_productivity" target="_blank">1 percentage point per year</a> above normal. Low productivity growth since then has <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/productivity-insights/recent-productivity-trends" target="_blank">wound back</a> those gains.
<h2>These gains are big, compared to those we sweated on</h2>
Even so, those reforms were, and to a large extent still are, widely seen as a crucial contributor to economic prosperity.
So, an improvement of 6.5% would be a huge benefit. It would be enough over a few years to offset the economic costs of the lockdown and many other impacts of the pandemic.
But, as in the case of microeconomic reform, this initial estimate may be misleading. And even if there are real benefits on average, it’s important to ask who will get them and who, if anyone, will lose.
A study by Harvard and New York University economists finds that people working from home spend around 48 minutes more time per day <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27612" target="_blank">connected to their offices</a>, leaving an average gain in free time of only 12 minutes per day.
It seems likely, however, that at least some of this time is spent on household tasks, especially to the extent that workers had to take on child care and home schooling during the lockdown period. And, as well as saving commuting time, workers also save the monetary costs of commuting and at least some of the time spent getting ready for work.
On balance, it seems clear that on average working from home yields net benefits.
However, workers for whom social contacts at work represent a significant “fringe benefit” will lose that benefit, while other workers who value privacy or separating work and social life will gain a benefit.
<h2>It’ll be harder for managers…</h2>
Similarly, those who rely on chatting to colleagues to develop ideas will lose something relative to those who prefer more systematic approaches to obtaining information relying on electronic contact.
Another group of workers who might lose from remote working are <a href="https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/middle-management-the-laggards-on-working-from-home-20200524-p54vwb" target="_blank">middle managers</a>.
To the extent that management depends on “presenteeism”, that is, physically keeping an eye on workers, remote working presents problems.
Intrusive checking on computer activity is likely to be resisted and evaded. Managers will have to learn to manage by objectively assessing results rather than observing what people do, and to get that evidence accepted further up in the hierarchy.
<h2>…manageable for employers</h2>
For employers, the shift to working from home has had little immediate impact. Workers wages haven’t changed and, at least in the short run, neither has spending on office space.
But, in the long run, remote working offers the possibility of much greater flexibility in hiring. Some employers such as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg have already floated the idea of paying workers less because they can now live in cheaper locations, setting the stage for future conflict.
For the most part, disputes over sharing the benefits of remote office work will be hashed out between employers, workers and unions, in the ordinary workings of the labour market.
But what about the other half of the workforce, who don’t have the option of working from home? In particular, what about the mostly low-paid service workers who depend on people coming into offices?
If the productivity gains made possible through remote work are to be shared by the entire community, substantial government action will be needed to make sure it happens.
Most obviously, the higher rate of JobSeeker allowance has helped us get through the pandemic without the upsurge in suicide and other measures of social distress predicted by many. Returning to the poverty-level unemployment benefit (the old Newstart) would be a disaster.
<h2>We’ll need to change the way we support workers</h2>
The pandemic has shown how whole sectors of the economy, such as aged care, rely on casual workers piecing together multiple jobs, with no access to standard conditions like sick leave. Younger workers in particular suffer from underemployment and difficulties in making the transition to permanent full-time work.
What will be needed is both an expansion of publicly funded employment in a wide range of services, including aged care, and a reversal of trends towards casual and contract employment.
Disastrous though it has been, COVID-19 has taught us a lot about ourselves and about how our economy and society work. If we learn these lessons, we might be able to benefit and mitigate at least some of the harm done by the disaster.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145104/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084" target="_blank">John Quiggin</a>, Professor, School of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/have-we-just-stumbled-on-the-biggest-productivity-increase-of-the-century-145104" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Have we just stumbled on the biggest productivity increase of the century?

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On-site Sydney auctions can host more than 20 people provided the agent complies with a COVID-19 Safety Plan, in a turnaround by the NSW Department of Fair Trading.
Domain reported a NSW Fair Trading spokesperson advised late Friday afternoon that Saturday auctions could go ahead as usual.
“The order is currently being amended to address an anomaly relating to the number of persons allowed on a residential property,” they said.
“In the meantime, an exemption has been made to ensure that inspections and auctions on residential premises can continue.”
The Real Estate Institute president NSW Leanne Pilkington said the peak body had tried to clarify with the NSW Health Department and NSW Fair Trading all last week. 
“We were trying to get an answer literally all week. We were in touch with Fair Trading every day,” she said.
The limit was raised after NSW Fair Trading inspectors discovered auction crowds larger than 20 across Sydney during August.
Ms Pilkington said while she understood the pressure and ever-changing landscape for the government during the pandemic, better communication was integral.
“It’s really frustrating for the news to be shared at 5pm on a Friday. To get the message out to people is really hard. These decisions seem to always happen late on Friday,” she said.
“I just hope that both the Health Department and Fair Trading learn from all of this in that communication with industry stakeholders is really important and timely information is important because we genuinely want to work together.”
Sydney’s preliminary auction rate was 62 per cent from 338 reported results. There were 78 withdrawn amid 437 scheduled auctions. However SQM advised there had <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/auctions.php?state=NSW" target="_blank">actually been </a><a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/auctions.php?state=NSW" target="_blank">578</a>. 
A lakeside Narrabeen home set a record after selling for $4.27 million.
The cul-de-sac 14 Malcolm Street, Narrabeen, attracted five registered bidders.
The top sale was a six-bedroom knockdown home, with a tennis court on 1400 sqm at 41 Newton Road, Strathfield.
There were the 12 registered bidders who topped out a $5,502,000 which was $652,000 above the reserve through Richards Matthew Real Estate.
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