<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

COVID-19

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The reopening of cafes has been one of the highlights of relaxed COVID-19 restrictions for many Australians. During lockdowns, <a href="https://www.escape.com.au/destinations/australia/victoria/during-coronavirus-aussies-turn-to-takeaway-coffee-for-comfort/news-story/dd84dc1b513ac6f5748f011fab01efa3" target="_blank">long queues for takeaway coffee</a> were testimony to caffeine’s relevance to our lives.
Yet the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-puts-casual-workers-at-risk-of-homelessness-unless-they-get-more-support-133782" target="_blank">precarious employment</a> of so many hospitality workers meant hundreds of thousands of casual café workers and café owners <a href="https://www.hospitalitymagazine.com.au/accommodation-food-services-hardest-hit-by-job-losses/" target="_blank">lost work</a>. Rents and mortgages were suspended or lost, upturning countless lives. At the other end of the coffee supply chain, many coffee farmers in poorer countries, who were already struggling to make a living, are doing it even tougher.
The pandemic has exposed the widening wealth gap in our global economy, and nowhere is this better illustrated than by our daily coffee fix. The multi-billion-dollar global coffee industry relies on vulnerable workers at both ends of the supply chain: the café worker serving your coffee and the struggling farmer who grew your coffee beans.
It’s an industry <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/p/pendergrast-grounds" target="_blank">steeped in its colonial past</a>, whose massive profits were <a href="https://perfectdailygrind.com/2019/03/slavery-specialty-discussing-coffees-black-history/" target="_blank">built on the back of African slave labour</a>.
<h2>An unequal business</h2>
Coffee is big business, mostly for coffee merchants in affluent countries. It’s among the world’s most-traded commodities and we consume nearly <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/292595/global-coffee-consumption/" target="_blank">10 million tons of coffee a year</a>. That’s about <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/the-world-s-top-coffee-consuming-nations-and-how-they-take-their-cup" target="_blank">2.25 billion cups a day</a> worldwide. Since 2000 global consumption has <a href="https://icocoffeeorg.tumblr.com/post/83000404043/global-coffee-consumption-has-increased-by-25" target="_blank">increased by 38%</a>.
Over 80% of the world’s coffee comes from <a href="https://www.fairtrade.org.uk/Farmers-and-Workers/Coffee/" target="_blank">25 million small-scale farmers</a> and <a href="https://carto.com/blog/enveritas-coffee-poverty-visualization/" target="_blank">60% is produced by farmers on less than 5 hectares</a>. Many of them struggle to make a decent living.
Coffee’s production and consumption echo its <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Uncommon_Grounds?id=TUo981rkwkoC&amp;redir_esc=y" target="_blank">18th-century origins as a global industry</a>. It’s mostly consumed by people in affluent countries and produced by agricultural workers in the poorer global south.
The coffee industry’s business model is based on a type of neo-colonialism, dominated by a handful of transnational coffee merchants whose profits are bountiful. Plantation economies in developing countries were established by colonial empires whose use of slavery spearheaded the rapid growth of the industry.
The Spanish introduced the use of slaves from Africa in the Caribbean and Latin America. They were quickly followed by the Portuguese in Brazil, then British and French colonialists in the West Indies. African slaves were considered “<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=Z7-zAAAAIAAJ&amp;newbks=1&amp;newbks_redir=0&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;dq=%E2%80%9Crobust,+disease+resistant+and+productive%22&amp;q=%E2%80%9Crobust,+disease+resistant+and+productive%22&amp;hl=en&amp;redir_esc=y" target="_blank">robust, disease resistant and productive</a>” – physically superior to the local indigenous populations of the Americas, many of whom died from diseases such as cholera and smallpox.
<h2>Producers live with poverty and hunger</h2>
While the type of slavery that launched the coffee industry no longer exists, other inequities remain. Coffee producers are among the most vulnerable members of the supply chain. When we buy our coffee, most of us are unaware of the bean’s provenance and the arduous labour of workers in small-scale plantations.
It’s estimated almost half of the world’s smallholder coffee producers live in poverty. <a href="https://carto.com/blog/enveritas-coffee-poverty-visualization/" target="_blank">Most of them are in East Africa</a>, but others are in Latin America and Asia.
Many coffee farmers suffer chronic seasonal hunger. Unlike famine, this occurs between harvest seasons, when the previous year’s food stocks have dwindled, food prices are high and income is scarce.
The COVID-19 pandemic has <a href="https://perfectdailygrind.com/2020/06/why-food-security-is-a-coffee-industry-issue/" target="_blank">increased the scarcity of food supplies</a> that were already sporadic. The closure of national borders has further reduced access.
<h2>Trying to make the coffee trade fairer</h2>
In response to the industry’s inequities, many initiatives are seeking fairer and sustainable outcomes for coffee farmers and for the environment. Some have been in place for decades. Of the programs established by NGOs, governments, multinational companies and other organisations, <a href="https://fairtradeanz.org/for-consumers/what-is-fairtrade" target="_blank">Fair Trade</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_trade" target="_blank">Direct Trade</a> are among the better-known ones.
More recently, the 2007 <a href="http://www.ico.org/ica2007.asp#:%7E:text=The%20International%20Coffee%20Agreement%202007,definitive%20ly%20on%202%20February%202011" target="_blank">International Coffee Agreement</a> is designed to promote a more equitable coffee trade to support smallholder farmers throughout the world. To overcome problems such as very low wages, poor housing and gender inequality, to name a few, these schemes are by necessity site-specific. Despite some success stories, the complexity of the industry and the wide variety of contexts presents barriers to consistent equitable outcomes and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/6/2/17/htm" target="_blank">results are mixed</a>.
 
Another approach in the growing speciality coffee sector – independent cafes serving high-quality coffee – is upending traditional business models. An increasing number of entrepreneurs in affluent countries are forming direct partnerships with coffee farmers. The aim here is both ethical and business-focused: to ensure consistent bean quality and provide a fairer income for coffee producers through direct trade.
The supply chain of coffee and cafes is a complex network of producers, distributors and services. Like all industries affected by the pandemic, some operators will survive and others will go to the wall.
While the pandemic’s impact is an unfolding story, it has brought into sharper focus inequalities in a thriving industry. Fault lines are evident across both producing and consuming nations, with many of those who work in the plantations and in our cafes on the wrong side of the divide.
It might give us something to think about as we enjoy our next coffee from our local café.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143274/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emma-felton-143029" target="_blank">Emma Felton</a>, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Creative Industries Faculty, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dark-brew-coffee-covid-and-colonialism-have-left-millions-struggling-to-make-a-living-143274" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

A dark brew: coffee, COVID and colonialism have left millions struggling to make a living

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
A <a href="http://productivity.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-08/Productivity_Commission_Green%20Paper_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">new report</a> from the New South Wales Productivity Commission (NSWPC) announces that “[higher] housing costs […] impose broader economic costs”. That chimes with our own <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">newly published research</a>. The implication is that Australia’s heavily capitalised housing market will weigh down economic recovery from the shocks of the coronavirus pandemic.
A niche group of economists and epidemiologists had <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-17/analysts-forecast-coronavirus-recession-what-comes-post-covid-19/12256246" target="_blank">warned</a> the world for decades that a pandemic would have devastating economic and social consequences. When it comes to Australia’s housing, though, the COVID-19 crisis has <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-lays-bare-5-big-housing-system-flaws-to-be-fixed-137162" target="_blank">only served to highlight</a> deep and long-standing faultlines.
The housing system has produced <a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-policy-reset-is-overdue-and-not-only-in-australia-112835" target="_blank">triple crises</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-steps-towards-remaking-the-homelessness-system-so-it-works-for-young-people-136385" target="_blank">rising homelessness</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/focus-on-managing-social-housing-waiting-lists-is-failing-low-income-households-120675" target="_blank">growing queues</a> for <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/providers/housing/affordable/about" target="_blank">non-market, affordable housing</a> and the pervasive <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/australian-house-price-growth-outpaced-wage-growth-in-the-last-financial-year-data-shows-984662" target="_blank">affordability problems</a> for middle- and lower-income households who depend on the private housing market. All these pressures were building well before the pandemic.
However, a particularly cruel COVID-19 effect has been the concentration of pandemic impacts on public-facing economic sectors and jobs. <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-paid-young-women-the-grim-truth-about-who-this-recession-is-hitting-hardest-141892" target="_blank">Younger people and female employees</a> have been hit hardest. The fallout in the lower end of the labour market will only make existing pressures worse.
Australia is about to embark on an audacious economic and social experiment as it tries to wind back the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs temporarily protecting about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/jobkeeper-review" target="_blank">3.5 million people</a>. Treasury projections envisage a gradual withdrawal. In reality, especially if any eviction moratoria are allowed to lapse, the start of this process will likely trigger huge immediate challenges in managing the housing and homelessness fallout.
Beyond that, the recession will drive home the need for political leaders to more fully appreciate the integral role of housing in the economy. The housing system plays key roles in shaping economic productivity, stability and inequality.
<h2>How on earth did we get here?</h2>
For many decades economics-leaning policymakers have assumed the housing market is largely a well-functioning system driven by helpful economic forces. Most famously personified in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/whos-to-blame-for-rising-house-prices-we-are-actually-20161026-gsamj2" target="_blank">comments by</a> former prime minister John Howard, and very much in tune with <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/525/C2_The_housing_story_An_Australian_Perspective.pdf" target="_blank">dominant media messaging</a>, Australian governments have generally welcomed rising house prices as signifying consumer confidence. Even <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.5.4.167" target="_blank">academic researchers</a> and government analysts have cited house prices as a sign of the “success” of cities and regions.
More recently, ever-rising house prices have finally been recognised as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/economic-inequality-largely-boils-down-to-housing-inequality" target="_blank">a driver of wealth inequality</a>. The problem is linked to rising mortgage debt and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-18/household-debt-australia-world-champions/11682628" target="_blank">increasingly recognised</a> as likely to add to instabilities in the macro economy and financial system.
There are also growing policy concerns that city living is becoming too expensive. This in turn harms economic productivity. [<a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CITIES" target="_blank">OECD data</a>] show Australia is on a similar path to the US, with the metropolitan share of national GDP per capita falling in recent years.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356867/original/file-20200908-24-l94su0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Chart showing metropolitan GDP per capita as percentage of national value"></a>
Metropolitan GDP per capita has been declining in Australia and some other countries. Data: OECD, Author provided
<h2>How has policy thinking become so blurred?</h2>
The NSWPC report recognises that the combination of <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/research-advocacy/the-rental-affordability-snapshot" target="_blank">excessive rents</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-insecurity-of-private-renters-how-do-they-manage-it-77324" target="_blank">insecure tenure</a> can damage children’s educational attainment and prospects. Prices and rents are <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/metropolis-of-three-cities/liveability/housing-city/housing-more-diverse-and-affordable" target="_blank">particularly unaffordable in Sydney</a>, making it a more stressful place to live and work. Resulting migration to other parts of the country reduces employers’ access to the supply of willing and productive labour, thus damaging productivity.
But the NSWPC analysis of housing-to-economy interactions does not go anything like far enough. As <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our research</a> shows, Australia’s dysfunctional housing system results in a battery of other economically harmful impacts. These include:
<ul>
<li>
long-term policies that have diverted savings and investment into rising property and land prices, with minimal or no employment or productivity benefit
</li>
<li>
excessive rent and mortgage burdens <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-06.pdf" target="_blank">diverting household spending from other consumption</a> with greater productivity impacts
</li>
<li>
a dysfunctional housing system that reduces household savings for the longer term, as well as contributing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fall-in-ageing-australians-home-ownership-rates-looms-as-seismic-shock-for-housing-policy-120651" target="_blank">falling rates of home ownership</a> and personal asset accumulation for future generations of older people.
</li>
</ul>
Perhaps worst of all, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-18/household-debt-leaves-australians-working-longer-spending-less/11608016#:%7E:text=Australians%20have%20the%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20household%20debts.&amp;text=On%20an%20individual%20level%2C%2037,a%20problem%20for%20them%20personally." target="_blank">high private housing debt</a> in Australia is among the worst in the world. The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2018/09/25/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-October-2018" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and the <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/fiscal-policy-is-the-new-game-in-town-says-oecd-20180530-h10r2t" target="_blank">OECD</a> recognise this debt as a threat to financial and economic stability.
 
Economics students are taught the “paradox of thrift”: when an individual saves, it benefits them in the long run. When too many people save, it harms economic growth.
In a similar way, rising housing prices benefit owners of houses and/or investments. But when we scale up to the level of a locality, city, state or economy, rising prices have a profound negative impact.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356834/original/file-20200907-16-j1p6o4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Young couple in kitchen looking at household bills"> The impacts of high rents and mortgage debt on people’s behaviour have significant consequences for the economy. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-caucasian-family-having-debt-problems-550887700" target="_blank">Shutterstock</a>
<h2>Setting a new agenda</h2>
With all this in mind, <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/extending-economic-cases-housing-policies-rents-ownership-and-assets/" target="_blank">our report</a> lays out a wide-ranging “housing and productivity” research agenda. The hope must be that the resulting evidence helps trigger the policy reboot needed to transform the housing system from being part of the problem to part of the solution.
Much more attention needs to be focused on how owners and renters adjust savings and spending as a result of excessive housing costs. Without knowing about these behavioural responses, it is impossible to design appropriate policies.
We must find ways to restore the housing prospects of younger and/or less affluent households. We must research the potential for schemes to help first home buyers with deposits, and assess how better credit scoring methods could reduce pressures on rental markets. This is particularly important because currently used credit scoring methods disproportionately reward access to wealth, and do not adequately capture important aspects of prospective borrowers’ consumption and saving behaviour.
Delayed home ownership entry or permanent exclusion have major long-term implications. Worryingly, the negative impacts on economic productivity and stability have been largely ignored to date.
The Grattan Institute <a href="https://theconversation.com/retiree-home-ownership-is-about-to-plummet-soon-little-more-than-half-will-own-where-they-live-115255" target="_blank">estimates</a> home-ownership rates for the over-65s will fall by 19% by 2056. The impacts on retirement incomes will be significant.
Policymakers haven’t planned for the inevitable rise in need for social housing from impoverished older private renters. The present system has glaringly failed to provide housing affordable for <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">more than half of Australia’s low income tenant population</a>. Acting on the mounting economic imbalances caused by the housing crisis could, at the same time, generate a more productive and stable economy.
Australian housing research and policy urgently needs a new economic conversation.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145437/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969">Hal Pawson</a>, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-randolph-147968" target="_blank">Bill Randolph</a>, Director, City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783" target="_blank">Chris Leishman</a>, Professor of Housing Economics, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/duncan-maclennan-446466" target="_blank">Duncan Maclennan</a>, Professorial Research Fellow in Urban Economics, UNSW; Professor of Strategic Urban Management and Finance, University of St Andrews; Professor in Public Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-glasgow-1269" target="_blank">University of Glasgow</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-covid-well-need-a-rethink-to-repair-australias-housing-system-and-the-economy-145437" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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After COVID, we'll need a rethink to repair Australia's housing system and the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Plenty of data suggests certain rental markets have deteriorated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
CoreLogic data showed a 0.8% decline in national rent values from the end of March to the end of August, with more acute falls in the unit markets of Sydney and Melbourne, where rent values have fallen 4.2% and 4.4% respectively over the same period.
The closure of international borders has created a shock to rental demand, as most migrants rent when they initially come to Australia.
An estimated 21.1% of payroll jobs have been lost across food and accommodation services since the onset of the pandemic, an industry where people are more likely to rent.
The exposure of inner city areas to overseas migration, and inner-city workforces to accommodation and food services, has made these markets particularly susceptible to a rise in rental stock, and lower prices. But less data exists on the current dynamics between investors and landlords which is becoming increasingly important as we approach the expiry of a moratorium on evictions, which have already been extended in some states.
CoreLogic conducted a survey of property managers, and other real estate professionals using the RP Data Professional platform. The survey provides some insight into rental conditions across the rental properties overseen by these professions. 
A majority of agencies noted stable tenancy conditions, but a sizeable number saw increases in arrears, rent reduction requests and postponed payments Each survey question had an average of 169 respondents.
Against the wider population of property professionals using the application, it suggests a margin of error in the responses of 7% at a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were surveyed over mid-to-late August. Of the respondents, the majority were located in the most populous states of Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
Nearly half (48.6%) were real estate principals, while a further 35.8% were property managers. Across the larger states and territories, respondents by role were fairly uniform.
Furthermore, respondents managed rental portfolios of varying sizes. The majority of respondents (60.3%) managed a large portfolio of 100 or more rental properties, while a further 14.4% managed between 50 and 99 properties.
Key findings from the survey are presented below About the survey While the majority of respondents noted they had not seen a deterioration in rental conditions over the last two weeks, there is a sizable portion of agencies that had.
Almost a third of real estate professionals had seen an increase in requests for rent reductions, over a quarter had seen an increase in rental delinquencies, and 8.8% had noted an increase in evictions.
Of the real estate professionals who had noted an increase in rental delinquencies, 56.8% were based in Victoria, suggesting renewed restrictions across the state has impacted tenants’ ability to service rent.
Eliza Owen, Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Residential landlords inclined to keep rents steady during COVID-19 pandemic: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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The largest real estate group in Victoria holds great concern for many of its customers following the announcement by the Victorian Government that private inspections of properties will not be allowed until 26 October, 2020.
As managing director of the Ray White Group, I am asking the Victorian Government to reconsider its ban on private inspections.
Private inspections alone will enable the industry to safely serve its customers and ensure that the most important financial transactions of their lives can be undertaken without further delays.
It has been a devastating day. Many of our customers often need to move properties for fundamental reasons - be it illness, divorce or other hardships like unemployment. It’s been distressing to listen to the feedback from customers now facing significant financial consequences as a result of these restrictions.
It makes absolutely no sense to forbid private inspections when you compare the safe environment we can create compared to the activities that are being allowed.
Despite many customers needing to buy and sell, yesterday’s decision means that many customers will be racing the clock to achieve a settlement before Christmas, given the time required to market property and the usual settlement period. It also applies significant pressure to those searching for a rental property or trying to lease their property.
Our leading group has been inundated with calls from customers who are distraught at the prospect of further significant delays in the marketing and sales of their properties.
Distraught customers include 70-year-old Brenda Hemphill, of Ringwood, who has bone marrow cancer and just needs to find a rental property to move into on September 25.
"I have to be out of the house by September 25 as my husband’s business went bankrupt and forced the sale,” said Mrs Hemphill, who recently sold her unit at auction through Ray White Ringwood.
“I have bone marrow cancer and need to stay close to the hospital for treatments. We have had to sell our forever home and there’s no chance of delaying the settlement as my husband went bankrupt but the house was in both names,” Mrs Hemphill said.
“I cannot go and view any rental properties. I am imploring Dan Andrew to make life a bit easier for us as not everything is around the corner to get the things we need.”
Another distressed client named Judy, who has her home on the market with Ray White Chelsea, simply wants to move to Queensland to help support her daughter.
“My son-in-law is a pilot and due to COVID-19, he has been relocated to Sydney to fly freight planes and my daughter is a working mum trying to juggle work around their two year old child. I’m a nurse and I’m incredibly disappointed that real estate activity hasn’t been reinstated because with the correct COVID procedures in place, the risk to the public is absolutely minimal when privately inspecting a property,” Judy said.
“I’m all alone down here and my daughter is all alone up there, and she’s had her own emergencies. All I want is to be in a financial position to sell soon and go to her when the borders finally reopens.”
Based on the people we have spoken to, there would be thousands of Victorians in distress as a result of the announcement.
The Big Four Australian banks have all spoken at length about the size and extent of mortgage deferrals. While they confirmed that loan deferrals will be extended on a case-by-case basis to March 2021, the message is clear: “the property market is holding up well, you may want to make the decision to sell and put yourself on a stronger footing”. Unfortunately for our Victorian customers with mortgage deferrals in place, they will be unable to do so.
In collaboration with the industry, Ray White has developed a detailed set of operating protocols for conducting private inspections to keep our customers safe.
These include a single buyer and agent inspecting for less than 15 minutes, without touching surfaces and observing social distancing.
We are not aware of any community transmission occurring in Australia as a result of real estate activity, and we estimate that nearly 180,000 properties were listed and marketed across Australia since April. That includes conducting open homes and auctions throughout Sydney throughout July and August and private inspections in the lead up to the Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown, when community outbreaks were occurring in both cities.
We note that physical on-site meetings will be permitted from 13 September in the construction industry and display homes will be open by appointment only from 28 September. We see no difference between these settings (particularly for many properties that are vacant) and believe the same settings can be achieved in the real estate industry.
We call on the government to review its decision and would welcome any opportunity to work collaboratively, for the good of the Victorian community.
Dan White is the Ray White Group Managing Director
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Victorian real estate customers stuck in limbo: Dan White

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment surged by 18% from 79.5 in August to 93.8 in September.
We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future.
The rebound means the Index is now just 1.6% below the average over the six months prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in March.
Recall that the sharp fall in August was in reaction to the deteriorating virus situation in Victoria which had seen the state government announce hard lockdown measures at the start of the month including ‘Stage 4’ restrictions for Melbourne. But the more concerning message in August was the weakness in other states – in particular, the 15.5% slump in confidence in NSW.
The state had seen persistent clusters of virus cases and combined with Victoria’s problems, sparked concerns of a wider ‘second wave’ outbreak. To a lesser extent these fears were also apparent in Queensland where confidence tumbled 8.1%.
However, Victoria’s new cases slowed markedly once lockdown measures were in place and we saw no evidence of second waves in either NSW or Queensland.
It should be noted that the September survey was completed before the announcement by Victorian State Premier Andrews on September 6 of a slower than generally expected move towards reopening. The disappointment with that announcement could have been expected to dampen the 14.9% surge in confidence in Victoria, although frustration at the extended lockdown measures would likely still be more than outweighed by the clear success they have had in containing the virus.
We do not expect the Premier’s announcement would have had any impact on the positive results in other states.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Consumer sentiment roars back despite news of recession: Bill Evans

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Dan Andrews, the Victorian premier, was asked by journalists at his Wednesday press conference on the holding of open for inspections and auctions.
There is currently a late October and late November roadmap.
Melbourne real estate will fully open with safety measures from November 23, however from October 26, if the daily average of new cases is fewer than five and there are fewer than five cases with an unknown source in the prior fortnight, agents would be allowed to hold private inspections and to hold outdoor auctions subject to gathering limits.
The REIV requested a review.
Here is the response to questions put by journalists at the Wednesday press conference:
Q: They can’t have an inspection, let alone an auction, when can they start to expect –
Dan Andrews: I don’t have the roadmap in front of me, but I’ll find out when we can expect to have those inspections, open houses and auctions. Looking closer to a normal, it’s not next week. It needs to be, for safety reason. When you think about it, there are many people who attend auctions. There are many people who would see themselves as there to bid. There, are then – I had a house sell in our street not long ago, prior to COVID, so it is a little while ago actually. There were a lot of people there who had no intention of buying the place, could never have had registered, but turned up to have a look. And all of a sudden you have a gathering that is way too big and way too risky, in terms of spreading this virus. I know it’s not easy, I know there are many in the real estate community and vendors and people across the state, who are all in different settings. But just like pubs, cafes and restaurants, they wouldn’t be back to normal for long. You’ve gotta find that long-term normal and then lock that in.   
Q: Like pubs or cafes, restaurants, what if you could have inspections or at least people could come along and leave their details with their mobile number and their names.
Dan Andrews: Sure, let me come back to you. As I said, I haven’t got the document in front of me now. There’s a lot in it. But, I’ll get you an answer on when we think that will be able to happen. It did come back but of course the circumstance has changed.
Q: And are there any hardship exemptions on that? Can people apply, say if they are in financial dire straits, and they apply in some way, they can have a few people come over and look at the house, to sell the house?
Dan Andrew: Look, there are exemptions available to any of these rules and we have always welcomed people making their case. And there is a whole team dealing with that… On the specifics of that, I am not sure if I have had anybody come to us arguing that. But, I am more than happy to ask.
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Dan Andrews looks at Melbourne having open for inspections and auctions

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The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) has called for an independent review of the roadmap announced by the Andrews government when it comes to real estate listings. 
It labelled the Victorian government’s response as disproportionate, alarmist and short sighted. 
"There is no dispute that health and safety of the community is a priority and the roadmap out of the lockdown must ensure safety of all Victorians," the REIV advised.
"However, the path proposed jeopardises livelihoods and assets of hard-working Victorians who have abided by the rules and restrictions for over six months.
"Pushing the Victorian economy to the brink of collapse cannot be the only method of preventing the spread of coronavirus."
The REIV has criticised the lack of genuine consultation by government with business.  
"The irreversible impact of these decisions on the mental and financial well-being of ordinary people is being ignored.
"People who have saved and invested in an asset like property are unable to sell it to tide over these difficult times. 
The REIV urged the Federal government to immediately initiate an independent review of the roadmap, every Victorian is being impacted by the lack of vision and planning shown by the Andrews government.
The REIV president Leah Calnan said the decisions compounded the financial stress on Victorians and the Victorian economy. 
“We have cases being reported every day where people need to sell their property to get through these financial challenging times, and they can’t do so because the government won’t allow even a one-on-one inspection.” 
 
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REIV calls for an independent review of Victoria’s real estate roadmap

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Victorian government today announced the eagerly anticipated roadmap out of COVID-19 lockdown. It features several steps that reflect a much slower relaxing of restrictions than last time around.
While the government has provided a provisional time frame for the various steps, it is data, not dates, that will determine when restrictions are actually eased.
We applaud this strategy. The virus does not obey a timeline. Rather, we have to beat it down to a level at which easing of restrictions is safer.
What was announced?
Metropolitan Melbourne’s current stage 4 restrictions will be extended for two weeks, to September 27. But from 11:59pm on September 13, there will be a few key changes.
The nightly curfew will be shortened by one hour, and will be in place from 9pm to 5am. Also, two people or a single household can meet outdoors for two hours maximum, up from the previous one hour, for exercise or recreation.
For people living alone, and single parents with children under 18, there will be a “single person bubble” policy that allows them to designate one other person who can visit their home.
Regional Victoria is already faring better than Melbourne, and will have a faster timeline.
Premier Daniel Andrews wants to maximise the chance of getting to Christmas in something like stage 1, while minimising the chance of a third wave of infection that sends the state back into lockdown. This means staying in strict restrictions for longer, and easing out more gradually.
How did data influence the decision?
The Victorian government’s decision was based in part on the output of a model developed by researchers at the University of Melbourne and the University of New England. It simulates population movements in a simplified world, based on parameters that describe the spread of COVID-19 and people’s interactions with each other.
In the real world, these patterns are highly random. So the researchers ran the model 1,000 times, with thresholds for relaxing (or tightening) restrictions set at an average of 25, 10, and 5 cases per day on a fortnightly basis. The model could then report the probability, under a given set of policy settings, of having to lock Victoria down again before Christmas.
 
Opening up too soon is likely to cause a third wave. In simulations in which restrictions were eased once average daily cases dipped below 25 per day, there was a 62% likelihood of new lockdowns. But with restrictions retained until daily cases dropped below 5 daily cases, the lockdown likelihood was just 3%.
Viewed in that light, it is easy to see why the Andrews government opted to set strict criteria for lifting restrictions, knowing that short-term pain is better than the economic ravages of another lockdown in the long term.
What might hold Victoria back?
First, there’s the elephant in the room — the quality of Victorian contact tracing (especially in comparison to New South Wales). Living with the virus requires high-quality contact tracing. There’s no doubt contact tracing in Victoria has improved since June when our second wave started. There is therefore a real possibility that we may get the case numbers down faster, and hold off resurgences of case numbers more effectively or for longer than the modelling suggests.
Second, infection disease control in health care and aged care has not been up to scratch in Victoria (compared with, dare we say it again, New South Wales). These represent particularly dangerous settings. Older adults are much more likely to become severely ill with COVID-19, whereas health-care workers who become infected with the coronavirus risk infecting the most vulnerable and reduce health capacity when it is most needed.
And of course, health and aged care workers live in the community too, and if community restrictions are relaxed the virus will leak back out through family members and surge again. The Victorian government decided to deal with both community and health-care transmission simultaneously. We think that it is the right approach.
Is elimination still possible?
There were strong arguments for an explicit <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/probability-6-week-lockdown-victoria-commencing-9-july-2020-achieving-elimination">elimination strategy back in early July</a>, requiring “going hard” for a six-week lockdown. Unfortunately, Victoria didn’t go hard early enough. The government waited three weeks, numbers got out of control, and then we went into stage 4. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a huge missed opportunity.
The Grattan Institute is also <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">arguing strongly</a> for an explicit elimination strategy and much longer hard lockdowns. It argues this will result in better economic outcomes in the long run. An <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20185587v1">impressive modelling paper</a> by Australian National University researchers also supports the theory that elimination is better for both health and the economy in the long run (although this paper has not yet been peer-reviewed).
However, things have changed in the past two months. First, we are now closer to a vaccine, so in theory the long-term payoff for short-term pain will arrive sooner. Second, New Zealand (and Queensland) have taught us that elimination can be lost. Third, NSW has taught us you can live with the virus at low levels (so far). Fourth, the imminent border openings and hotspot strategy are not really consistent with the hard border controls needed to defend elimination in places that achieve it.
Andrews aptly termed the state’s strategy “aggressive suppression”. It may even achieve elimination, as the first wave effort so nearly did. We hope it does – but do not bank on it.
It’s in our hands now, both the government and citizens. With some good luck – and few would begrudge Victorians a little of that – the roadmap will pan out as planned.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145558/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laxman-bablani-1153311">Laxman Bablani</a>, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/driss-ait-ouakrim-1153309">Driss Ait Ouakrim</a>, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">original article</a>.
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Victorian government has set its sights on a 'COVID-normal' Christmas

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
One of the most striking responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the sudden shift of around half the workforce to working at home.
In many cases, this was combined with an equally sudden shift to home schooling.
Contrary to what might have been expected, working from home was one part of the pandemic response that went remarkably smoothly. Most kinds of office work continued almost as if nothing had changed.
Discussion of the crisis has mostly worked on the assumption that a return to something like the pre-crisis “normal” is both inevitable and desirable.
But the unplanned experiment we have been forced to undertake suggests we might have stumbled upon a massive opportunity for a microeconomic reform, yielding benefits far greater than those of the hard-fought changes of the late 20th century.
The average worker spends an hour on commuting every work day. Remarkably, this is a figure which has remained more or less stable since Neolithic times, a finding known as <a href="https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/marchettis-constant?rebelltitem=5#rebelltitem5" target="_blank">Marchetti’s Law</a>. (The same observation has been attributed to Bertrand Russell.)
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356223/original/file-20200903-16-ucfv9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356223/original/file-20200903-16-ucfv9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Marchetti’s Law says we spend about an hour travelling to work whatever the era.
If working from home eliminated an hour of commuting, without changing time spent on work or reducing production, the result would be equivalent to a 13% increase in productivity (assuming a 38-hour working work).
If half the workforce achieved such a gain, it would be equivalent to a 6.5% increase in productivity for the labour force as a whole.
For a comparison, let’s look at the radical microeconomic reforms of the 1990s, including privatisation, deregulation and national competition policy.
In 1995 the main advocate of these reforms, the Productivity Commission, then called the Industry Commission, estimated they would increase national income by <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/hilmer-reform-implications/hilmer.pdf" target="_blank">5.5%</a>.
In retrospect, that estimate appears to have been over-optimistic.
Although there was an upsurge in measured productivity growth in the mid-1990s, the total increase relative to the long-term trend was less than <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24125267_Stories_about_productivity" target="_blank">1 percentage point per year</a> above normal. Low productivity growth since then has <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/productivity-insights/recent-productivity-trends" target="_blank">wound back</a> those gains.
<h2>These gains are big, compared to those we sweated on</h2>
Even so, those reforms were, and to a large extent still are, widely seen as a crucial contributor to economic prosperity.
So, an improvement of 6.5% would be a huge benefit. It would be enough over a few years to offset the economic costs of the lockdown and many other impacts of the pandemic.
But, as in the case of microeconomic reform, this initial estimate may be misleading. And even if there are real benefits on average, it’s important to ask who will get them and who, if anyone, will lose.
A study by Harvard and New York University economists finds that people working from home spend around 48 minutes more time per day <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27612" target="_blank">connected to their offices</a>, leaving an average gain in free time of only 12 minutes per day.
It seems likely, however, that at least some of this time is spent on household tasks, especially to the extent that workers had to take on child care and home schooling during the lockdown period. And, as well as saving commuting time, workers also save the monetary costs of commuting and at least some of the time spent getting ready for work.
On balance, it seems clear that on average working from home yields net benefits.
However, workers for whom social contacts at work represent a significant “fringe benefit” will lose that benefit, while other workers who value privacy or separating work and social life will gain a benefit.
<h2>It’ll be harder for managers…</h2>
Similarly, those who rely on chatting to colleagues to develop ideas will lose something relative to those who prefer more systematic approaches to obtaining information relying on electronic contact.
Another group of workers who might lose from remote working are <a href="https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/middle-management-the-laggards-on-working-from-home-20200524-p54vwb" target="_blank">middle managers</a>.
To the extent that management depends on “presenteeism”, that is, physically keeping an eye on workers, remote working presents problems.
Intrusive checking on computer activity is likely to be resisted and evaded. Managers will have to learn to manage by objectively assessing results rather than observing what people do, and to get that evidence accepted further up in the hierarchy.
<h2>…manageable for employers</h2>
For employers, the shift to working from home has had little immediate impact. Workers wages haven’t changed and, at least in the short run, neither has spending on office space.
But, in the long run, remote working offers the possibility of much greater flexibility in hiring. Some employers such as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg have already floated the idea of paying workers less because they can now live in cheaper locations, setting the stage for future conflict.
For the most part, disputes over sharing the benefits of remote office work will be hashed out between employers, workers and unions, in the ordinary workings of the labour market.
But what about the other half of the workforce, who don’t have the option of working from home? In particular, what about the mostly low-paid service workers who depend on people coming into offices?
If the productivity gains made possible through remote work are to be shared by the entire community, substantial government action will be needed to make sure it happens.
Most obviously, the higher rate of JobSeeker allowance has helped us get through the pandemic without the upsurge in suicide and other measures of social distress predicted by many. Returning to the poverty-level unemployment benefit (the old Newstart) would be a disaster.
<h2>We’ll need to change the way we support workers</h2>
The pandemic has shown how whole sectors of the economy, such as aged care, rely on casual workers piecing together multiple jobs, with no access to standard conditions like sick leave. Younger workers in particular suffer from underemployment and difficulties in making the transition to permanent full-time work.
What will be needed is both an expansion of publicly funded employment in a wide range of services, including aged care, and a reversal of trends towards casual and contract employment.
Disastrous though it has been, COVID-19 has taught us a lot about ourselves and about how our economy and society work. If we learn these lessons, we might be able to benefit and mitigate at least some of the harm done by the disaster.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145104/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084" target="_blank">John Quiggin</a>, Professor, School of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/have-we-just-stumbled-on-the-biggest-productivity-increase-of-the-century-145104" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Have we just stumbled on the biggest productivity increase of the century?

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On-site Sydney auctions can host more than 20 people provided the agent complies with a COVID-19 Safety Plan, in a turnaround by the NSW Department of Fair Trading.
Domain reported a NSW Fair Trading spokesperson advised late Friday afternoon that Saturday auctions could go ahead as usual.
“The order is currently being amended to address an anomaly relating to the number of persons allowed on a residential property,” they said.
“In the meantime, an exemption has been made to ensure that inspections and auctions on residential premises can continue.”
The Real Estate Institute president NSW Leanne Pilkington said the peak body had tried to clarify with the NSW Health Department and NSW Fair Trading all last week. 
“We were trying to get an answer literally all week. We were in touch with Fair Trading every day,” she said.
The limit was raised after NSW Fair Trading inspectors discovered auction crowds larger than 20 across Sydney during August.
Ms Pilkington said while she understood the pressure and ever-changing landscape for the government during the pandemic, better communication was integral.
“It’s really frustrating for the news to be shared at 5pm on a Friday. To get the message out to people is really hard. These decisions seem to always happen late on Friday,” she said.
“I just hope that both the Health Department and Fair Trading learn from all of this in that communication with industry stakeholders is really important and timely information is important because we genuinely want to work together.”
Sydney’s preliminary auction rate was 62 per cent from 338 reported results. There were 78 withdrawn amid 437 scheduled auctions. However SQM advised there had <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/auctions.php?state=NSW" target="_blank">actually been </a><a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/auctions.php?state=NSW" target="_blank">578</a>. 
A lakeside Narrabeen home set a record after selling for $4.27 million.
The cul-de-sac 14 Malcolm Street, Narrabeen, attracted five registered bidders.
The top sale was a six-bedroom knockdown home, with a tennis court on 1400 sqm at 41 Newton Road, Strathfield.
There were the 12 registered bidders who topped out a $5,502,000 which was $652,000 above the reserve through Richards Matthew Real Estate.
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