<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.</p>

<p>The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.</p>

<p>Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.</p>

<p>The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.</p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" /></p>

<p>Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.</p>

<p>But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.</p>

<p>Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.</p>

<p>The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.</p>

<p>Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.</p>

<p>SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.</p>

<p>The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.</p>

<p>The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.</p>

<p>Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.</p>

<p><img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" /></p>

<p>SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.</p>

<p>Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.</p>

<p>If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

<p>Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.</p>

<p>Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.</p>

<p>The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.</p>

<p>“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.</p>

<p>"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.</p>

<p>“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”</p>

<p><img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" /></p>

<p>The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.</p>

<p>The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.</p>

<p>The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" /></p>

<p>The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.</p>

<p>It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.</p>

<p>Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.</p>

<p>The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.</p>

<p>Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.</p>

<p><img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" /></p>

<p>Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.</p>

<p>A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.</p>

<p>A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.</p>

<p>Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.</p>

<p>Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.</p>

<p>The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.</p>

<p>Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.</p>


Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

<p data-end="288" data-start="269"><strong data-end="288" data-start="269">Article summary</strong></p>

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289"><strong data-end="374" data-start="291">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development</strong>, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443"><strong data-end="513" data-start="445">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences</strong>, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574"><strong data-end="646" data-start="576">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project</strong>, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718"><strong data-end="787" data-start="720">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road</strong>, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<p data-end="1011" data-start="790"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.</p>

<p data-end="1296" data-start="1013">The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion</p>

<p data-end="1296" data-start="1013"><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" /></p>

<p>The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.</p>

<p>“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."</p>

<p>Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."</p>

<p>"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." /></p>

<p>The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.</p>

<p>A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" /></p>

<p>Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.</p>

<p>“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.</p>

<p>“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.</p>

<p>“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”</p>

<p><img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" /></p>

<p>Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.</p>

<p>With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]</p>


DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<p><a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.</p>

<p>Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.</p>

<p>The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.</p>

<p>The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.</p>

<p>A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" /></p>

<p>The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.</p>

<p>"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.</p>

<p>"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."</p>

<p>The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."</p>

<p>Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.</p>

<p>Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.</p>

<p>The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.</p>

<p>The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.</p>


First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]</p>

<p>The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.</p>

<p>"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]</p>

<p>Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.</p>

<p>The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

COVID-19

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As Australia gets back to business I've been following the UK government's inept handling of the Coronavirus with increasingly wide-eyed incredulity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cost to date has now been estimated at a mind-boggling £284 billion according to the government's own spending review this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you were wondering what exactly has been achieved by this interplanetary level of spending (so far), then you wouldn't be Robinson Crusoe there.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Brits expected to announce approval of the rollout of a Biontech/Pfizer jab as early as this coming week then the UK's effective lockdown will likely continue through until the new year, accounting for thousands more blameless small businesses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To add insult to injury the botched and inoperable test-and-trace system has alone cost an absurd £22 billion, single-handedly erasing years of pointless austerity measures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Britain's public sector net debt will soon be well above 100 per cent of GDP and back to the highest level since the post-war years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Higher taxes will doubtless be back on the agenda soon enough to pay for it all, but this time around capital will likely up and leave. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just the Brexit debacle to finish off now before the incumbent PM gets ushered out of politics...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Money printer go #Brrr...</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's remarkable how quickly views have changed in respect of quantitative easing and related stimulus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fears of inflationary spirals in the financial crisis aftermath have been replaced the money printers being embraced with joyful abandon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Grant Williams of RealVision and TTMYGH rustled up this belter of an infographic this week to compare the scale of the Covid-19 stimulus to that of the 2008 financial crisis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z8fJVDAqWXQ/X8P9QxCvh9I/AAAAAAAA5h8/sEVcHmlohJg_2QA_I1bHON3L0gje6t2GQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h466/TTMYGH.jpg" width="640" height="466" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="1005"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>With interest rates mired at zero for the foreseeable future capital has been flowing into real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Lucky country</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Numerous medical journal studies are now showing how Vitamin D can play an important role in reducing Covid-19 infection.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ox9pY_ZatEc/X8QAlWZKLaI/AAAAAAAA5iI/LA-014I42p4wevQTXCa4xXcCX7j1XF3HgCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h266/RP.jpg" width="640" height="266" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="728"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This might go some of the way to explaining Australia's near elimination of the virus, with zero deaths or cases in ICUs or on ventilators for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the reasons, it's looking increasingly likely that Australia has dodged another sizeable bullet and will become a remarkably sought-after destination once its international borders are reopened.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Data due to be released this week will show that the Aussie economy began to expand again with output growing by about 3-4 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, with another pumping current account surplus, and housing prices rising by +0.6 per cent in the month of November. </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The UK; a case study on botched COVID-19 stimulus: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>There is no doubt the COVID-19 crisis has incurred widespread economic costs. There is understandable concern that stronger measures against the virus, from social distancing to full lockdowns, worsen its impact on economies.</p>
<p>As a result, there has been a tendency to consider the problem as a trade-off between health and economic costs.</p>
<p>This view, for example, has largely defined the approach of the US federal government. “I think we’ve learned that if you shut down the economy, you’re going to create more damage,” said US Treasury Secretary <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again">Steve Mnuchin in June</a>, as the Trump administration resisted calls to decisively combat the nation’s second COVID wave.</p>
<p>But the notion of a trade-off is not supported by data from countries around the world. If anything, the opposite may be true.</p>
<p><strong>Data from 45 nations</strong></p>
<p>Let’s examine available data for 45 nations from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, using <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data">COVID-19 data</a> and <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=350">economic indicators</a>.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 statistics we’ll focus on are deaths per million of population. No single indicator is perfect, and these rates don’t always reflect contextual factors that apply to specific countries, but this indicator allows us to draw a reasonably accurate global picture.</p>
<p>The economic indicators we’ll examine are among those most widely used for overall evaluations of national economic performance. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is an index of national wealth. Exports and imports measure a country’s international economic activity. Private consumption expenditure is an indicator of how an economy is travelling.</p>
<p><strong>Effects on GDP per capita</strong></p>
<p>Our first chart plots nations’ deaths per million from COVID-19 against the percentage change in per capita GDP during the second quarter of 2020.</p>
<p>The size of each data point shows the scale of deaths per million as of June 30, using a logarithmic, or “log”, scale – a way to display a very wide range of values in compact graphical form.</p>
<hr>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371240/original/file-20201125-16-y0lvcd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><br><span class="caption"><em>Log(deaths per million) by percentage change in Q2 2020 GDP per capita</em>.</span></p>
<hr>
<p>If suppressing the virus, thereby leading to fewer deaths per million, resulted in worse national economic downturns, then the “slope” in figure 1 would be positive. But the opposite is true, with the overall correlation being -0.412.</p>
<p>The two outliers are China, in the upper-left corner, with a positive change in GDP per capita, and India at the bottom. China imposed successful hard lockdowns and containment procedures that meant economic effects were limited. India imposed an early hard lockdown but its measures since have been far less effective. Removing both from our data leaves a correlation of -0.464.</p>
<p><strong>Exports and imports</strong></p>
<p>Our second chart shows the relationship between deaths per million and percentage change in exports.</p>
<p>If there was a clear trade-off between containing the virus and enabling international trade, we would see a positive relationship between the changes in exports and death-rates. Instead, there appears to be no relationship.</p>
<hr>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371241/original/file-20201125-15-75nr66.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><em><span class="caption">Log(deaths per million) by percentage change in Q2 2020 exports.</span></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Our third chart shows the relationship between deaths per million and percentage change in imports. As with exports, a trade-off would show in a positive relationship. But there is no evidence of such a relationship here either.</p>
<hr>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371248/original/file-20201125-15-x21mry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><em><span class="caption">Log(deaths per million) by percentage change in Q2 2020 imports.</span></em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Consumer spending</strong></p>
<p>Our fourth chart shows the relationship between deaths per million and percentage change in private consumption expenditure. This complements the picture we get from imports and exports, by tracking consumer spending as an indicator of internal economic activity.</p>
<hr>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371247/original/file-20201125-23-1rglhox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><em><span class="caption">Log(deaths per million) by percentage change in Q2 2020 private consumption.</span></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Again, no positive relationship. Instead, the overall negative relationship suggests those countries that succeeded (at least temporarily) in suppressing the virus were better off economically than those countries adopting a more laissez-faire approach.</p>
<p><strong>National wealth</strong></p>
<p>As a postscript to this brief investigation, let’s take a quick look at whether greater national wealth seems to have helped countries deal with the virus.</p>
<p>Our fifth and final chart plots cases per million (not deaths per million) against national GDP per capita.</p>
<hr>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371246/original/file-20201125-24-yiv8un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><em><span class="caption">Log(GDP per capita) by log(cases per million).</span></em></p>
<hr>
<p>If wealthier countries were doing better at suppressing transmission, the relationship should be negative. Instead, the clusters by region suggest it’s a combination of culture and politics driving the effectiveness of nations’ responses (or lack thereof).</p>
<p>In fact, if we examine the largest cluster, of European countries (the green dots), the relationship between GDP per capita and case rates is positive (0.379) – the opposite of what we would expect.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>It’s not a zero-sum game</strong></p>
<p>The standard economic indicators reviewed here show, overall, countries that have contained the virus also tend to have had less severe economic impacts than those that haven’t.</p>
<p>No one should be misled into believing there is zero-sum choice between saving lives and saving the economy. That is a false dichotomy.</p>
<p>If there is anything to be learned regarding how to deal with future pandemics, it is that rapidly containing the pandemic may well lessen its economic impact.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150533/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-smithson-122837">Michael Smithson</a>, Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/data-from-45-countries-show-containing-covid-vs-saving-the-economy-is-a-false-dichotomy-150533">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Data shows containing COVID vs saving the economy is a false dichotomy

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<p class="_1HzXw">The Federal Government program offering cash grants for house and land and apartment construction projects has been extended, but at a lower amount.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">The HomeBuilder program had been due to finish at the end of the year, but will be extended until March 31, as <span>builders were concerned of a bottleneck of applications towards the end of the scheme.</span></p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Of the 24,000 applications, 19,180 are for new builds - houses and apartments - with 4,697 for renovations.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Contracts signed between January and March next year will attract a lower rate of $15,000, not the current $25,000 rate.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Home buyers will be given more time to start construction.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">The price caps in NSW and Victoria will be lifted.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Property price caps for new builds in the two key states will be lifted for contracts signed between January and March next year, rising to $950,000 in New South Wales and $850,000 in Victoria.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the extension was expected to lead to another 15,000 construction projects, bringing the total anticipated renovations or builds under the program to 42,000.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">"It's critical we keep the momentum up for Australia's economic recovery," Mr Morrison said.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">"Extending HomeBuilder will mean a steady pipeline of construction activity to keep tradies on the tools."</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">The amount of time all approved applicants who signed contracts on or after June 4, 2020, are given to start construction has been extended from three months to six months.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">The latest measures have been costed at $240 million, bringing the total expected to $921 million.</p>
<p class="_1HzXw">Urban Taskforce CEO, Tom Forrest said he was delighted to see that the Government had listened.</p>
<p>“The HomeBuilder scheme was limited in its original design because of the price caps that resulted in very limited applicability in the main markets – Sydney and Melbourne. </p>
<p>“Today the Morrison Government has increased the eligibility cap for NSW and Victoria from $750,000 to $950,000 and $850,000. </p>
<p>"Urban Taskforce members welcome this adjustment – though many lament the length of time it took for the government to respond to industry concerns.”</p>
<p>“While the extension in the requirement to commence construction work from 3 months of an application to 6 months is very welcome, it is disappointing that the HomeBuilder support package has dropped from $25,000 to only $15,000 for applications made between 1 January and 31 March 2021.</p>
<p>“The revised scheme will support the production of new homes, reducing upward pressure on prices," he added.</p>
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COVID-19 HomeBuilder scheme gets extended and expanded into 2021

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<p>There are 50,000 households that face high housing cost burdens themselves, following the pandemic, who also own a private investment property.</p>
<p>There are 956,000 households living in housing affordability Stress (HAS) in Australia, according to a new AHURI report that looked into the impact of COVID-19, with Commonwealth rent assistance (CRA) reducing the number to 758,000.</p>
<p>The situation of the 50,000 was "cause for concern given that private renters have been disproportionately affected by the downturn," the report noted after modelling <span>from the University of Adelaide and Curtin University</span>.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 24">
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<div class="column">
<p><span>There is considerable potential for highly leveraged households owning an investment property, who are spending a higher proportion of their incomes on their own housing costs, to run into trouble meeting those costs and/or the servicing of their investment loan commitments, it noted.</span></p>
<p><span>"We estimate that there are around 37,500 mortgage home owners living in HAS who also own an investment property, and approximately 12,000 private renters in a similar position."</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>It is estimated that the overall number of households living with HAS would have risen to 1,336,000 (from the 758,000 baseline) without the JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions.</p>
<div>The study found that the number of households living in a precarious situation is very high, and will likely remain high even after a partial recovery in 2021 and the withdrawal of much of the Australian Government’s income support measures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Without an extension of the JobKeeper income support measures beyond March 2021, the number of households living in HAS is likely to increase significantly, the AHURI report concluded.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Households living with HAS and owning an investment property themselves are predicted to more than double.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The report noted JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions reduced the incidence of housing a fordability stress by a considerable amount: 861,000 households compared to 1.34 million without the intervention.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"As JobKeeper moves through its later phases, the predicted number of households in HAS is expected to gradually rise by a further 124,000; 73 per cent of these households are private renters."</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
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50,000 investors in mortgage stress put their tenants in precarious position 

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<p><span>Australian dwelling values have continued to climb higher in the month of November to date, Coolabah Capital director Chris Joye has noted.</span></p>
<p><span> Over the first 21 days of the month, house prices across the five largest capital cities have appreciated 0.4% led by Perth (0.7%), Adelaide (0.6%), Melbourne (0.5%), Brisbane (0.4%) and Sydney (0.2%) according to the latest daily hedonic index data from CoreLogic.</span></p>
<p><span> After prices started drifting lower in late April and May, the Aussie housing rebound commenced in September in six of the eight capital cities.</span></p>
<p><span>Joye noted the bounce-back picked up steam in October with all cities except Melbourne realising gains. </span></p>
<p><span>Joye wrote on Livewire that there is no evidence of a real boom yet.</span></p>
<p><span>"The recovery thus far has been gradual," he said.</span></p>
<p><span> Coolabah has since March 2020 forecast strong dwelling price appreciation following a modest six-month correction, with total capital gains of at least 10% to 20% expected over the next few years. </span></p>
<p><span>Joye added t<span>he locked-down Melbourne market, which unsurprisingly fared worst during this episode, appeared to trough in late October and started generating clear price increases at the end of that month. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>"In the November month-to-date, Melbourne has outpaced Sydney in terms of its capital gains.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>"This also reconciles with increasingly robust auction market results," he said.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Joye sees<span> a "sustainable housing boom will emerge over time."</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>"The boom should really grip once property investors flood back into the market in 2021 to capitalise on the advent of "positive gearing" (i.e., where gross rental yields are above the cost of servicing mortgage debt).</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span>"Since bank credit standards are arguably the toughest they have ever been, we are not concerned about bubbles or financial stability risks at this juncture."</span></span></span></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Melbourne outpaces Sydney in November property gains: Chris Joye

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<div>Quarter 1 of 2020 saw an atypical level of transactions (compared to the 2019 calendar year) within the prestige sector of the Southern Highlands, with sale prices remaining relatively static and no signs of major change in the high end residential and rural lifestyle segment, according to the November report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>They found that <span>Quarter 2 of 2020 saw the ripple effects of COVID-19 when the start of the lockdown in late March brought with it an unexpectedly positive impact on the prestige market for the Southern Highlands as the area was discovered predominantly by Sydney purchasers seeking a family home, secondary residence or weekender style of accommodation and lifestyle buyers seeking relief from the urban and inner city living environment. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span class="mark05w89l2ff" data-markjs="true" data-ogac="" data-ogab="" data-ogsc="" data-ogsb="">HTW</span> Property valuer, Tim Stevens said, "we had reasonably foreseen this upward trend over the medium term (six months) for the region as working from home became more common due to technological advancements and many employees being unable to attend their normal Sydney offices."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"What we didn’t foresee, but makes sense, is buyers flocking to the Southern Highlands region to take advantage of the lifestyle NOW given that overseas travel and family holidays are off the agenda for most of 2021 at this point. The impact of this upward trend became very evident early on in the COVID-19 pandemic and is showing no signs of abatement up to the present time."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 of 2020 have seen multiple sales above $3 million and days on market for this segment have continued to contract to a matter of weeks now for well-located properties. This has been clearly evidenced by a number of older listings which had been on the market for over six months gaining traction and finally selling during this period."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>By way of example, notable sales included two prestige properties in Burradoo which sold for in excess of $4.75 million dollars each after languishing on the market for the better part of a year.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span class="mark05w89l2ff" data-markjs="true" data-ogac="" data-ogab="" data-ogsc="" data-ogsb="">HTW</span> speculate that a large reason for the surge in activity in the $3 million plus sector is due to families in Sydney seeing extremely good value for money in the Southern Highlands. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Typically, $3 million wouldn’t be considered the prestige end of the market in Sydney, so when home owners from the Lower North Shore and Eastern Suburbs sell up and realise the scale of improvements and land size they can obtain for relatively similar money.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Another recent example was a $4 million plus rural residential purchase in Berrima by an eastern suburbs family which saw an agreed contract price with one prospective purchaser and an additional two families waiting in line to snap up the property in the event the sales agreement failed to close.<br></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Mr Stevens said, "the question for our prestige market as we move into Quarter 4 of 2020 and beyond is about continued demand and buyer depth and whether the current move to regional hubs will be sustained, thereby driving continued price growth."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"For now, we can certainly see it continuing and it could well be that this push has been a long time coming, with recent events being the final straw for a number of urban dwellers to discover or rediscover the Southern Highlands and the benefits accruing from a rural and regional lifestyle," he concluded.</span></div>
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Southern Highlands prestige market sees COVID-19 induced surge: HTW

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<div>The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an interesting impact on the local housing market around the coastal area of Lennox Head to Evans Head,<span> according to the November report from valuation firm Herron Todd White</span>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>They found that there is very strong demand for properties which in turn has left agents with an ongoing limited supply of properties for sale.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Our market seems to be mainly influenced by the movement of people from the major cities and in particular Sydney. This movement has kept property prices at a premium and in some areas has also resulted in a slight increase in values<span>," according to HTW Property Valuer Bernard Walter.</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The building industry has also been given some relief though as the North Coast is now in the bubble which allows travel into and out of Queensland."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Whilst demand resulting from these capital city markets has typically been concentrated in the more desirable areas of Byron Bay and the surrounding localities, in more recent years potential purchasers have expanded their searches into the desirable areas of the Ballina Shire, most notably Lennox Head, Skennars Head and East Ballina, as well as the rural localities of Newrybar, Brooklet, Fernleigh and Tintenbar," he added.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property prices may be impacted once the mortgage relief and JobKeeper payment have been lifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Potential future impacts of COVID have left people with uncertainty as to jobs and incomes looking forward, which we may continue to experience in following years, HTW experts noted.</div>
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Ballina prestige market buoyed by limited supply: HTW

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<div>The high end market in the Whitsundays is performing well despite COVID and what’s happening in other areas of Australia, with lifestyle properties being sought after<span>, according to<span> </span></span><span>the November report from valuation firm Herron Todd White</span><span>.</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>HTW found that rural residential lifestyle properties are being snapped up with sales ranging from $800,000 to over $1 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Properties with ocean views or frontage are also being snapped up along with vacant lots in similar locations.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"There have also been two sales in the prestige unit market, both selling for over $800,000," the Queensland-based Herron Todd White valuer Noelene Spurway said. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"We expect that once the borders are open, lifestyle properties will continue to move as the lifestyle in the Whitsundays is second to none."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Spurway did however jest that she is maybe just a little biased.</span></div>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Whitsundays prestige market strong amid COVID uncertainty: HTW

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<h2><strong>OPINION:</strong></h2>

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the limitations of historic urban design, putting the pressure on urban planners and property developers to rethink the way we build our communities. I believe new directions are required to design, develop and promote masterplanned communities, to suit the needs of people both now and into the future Masterplanned communities are wonderfully designed for self-contained living, with all the local amenities residents would need right on their doorstep. However, traditional planning has focused on connectivity, not just through sentiment, but through physical design and landscapes and there are still design changes within our communities that we need to consider for a post-COVID world.</p>

<p>For developers like us at AVID, the challenge now is finding a solution to an integrated philosophy of ‘connection’ while creating built environments and community spaces that allow for physical distancing. Three key areas for reimagining the urban design of communities include: streets, parklands and home designs.</p>

<h2><strong>1. Building wider paths and narrower roads </strong></h2>

<p>In the past, engineers would design streets predominately with vehicle-use in mind. Now we need to consider design that allows for the movements of people. Reports continue to show that more people are using walking and cycle pathways since COVID-19 with an increase of <a href="https://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/newsroom/2020/04/16/swap-our-streets-for-cycleways-to-keep-people-riding/"><u><strong>up to 79% in some areas</strong></u></a>.</p>

<p>The narrow paths and wide roads of today <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/art-architecture-design/how-streets-could-become-more-liveable-and-inclusive-post-coronavirus"><u><strong>don’t allow enough space to allow movement of people with safe social distancing</strong></u></a>. We need to adapt our built environment for more pedestrian and cyclist dominant movement over vehicular focused streets to prepare us for new waves of COVID-19 or similar future health pandemics.</p>

<p>It has also become clear that we need the foresight to create dedicated zones to allow safe pedestrian and cyclist traffic, which could also include a separate zone for more intense use of pathways for fitness. This would be one way that we could manage safe social distancing requirements under movement restrictions, such as the 5-kilometre radius rule.</p>

<h2><strong>2. Innovating park designs and recreational spaces</strong></h2>

<p>People have a need for fresh air and open spaces to manage their health and wellbeing, especially under the trying times of COVID-19. For people living in Melbourne, the lack of open parklands is impacting people’s mental and physical health with recent reports indicating that 340,000 people don’t have sufficient access to open space, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-12/thousands-of-melburnians-no-parkland-within-5km-coronavirus/12547050"><u><strong>with only between 0 to 4.5 square kilometres of parkland within 5 kilometres of their home</strong></u></a>.</p>

<p>While parklands are an essential feature of masterplanned community design, our recreational spaces will need to change. They are typically hubs of activity and social interaction for families and new innovative designs need to be explored that include surfaces that don’t have to be touched or cleaned every day to be enjoyed. We need to think outside the box and look to more sensory experiences as opposed to hard landscape.</p>

<p>At AVID we are asking ourselves, ‘what does a more sensory and immersive play area look like?’ In some of our own communities, plans are already underway to integrate these new design ideas into our communities to future proof our projects.</p>

<h2><strong>3. Changing home designs and living spaces</strong></h2>

<p>Another added benefit of masterplanned communities are close partnerships with builders who we can work with to provide building designs that meet the changing living arrangements of Australians. Changing home designs have been very much under discussion in the construction, building and design industry.</p>

<p>We are seeing design trends that provide a more comfortable living experience as we spend more time in our homes. For example, designs with additional light and space, larger backyards for private outdoors spaces and gardens, home office spaces or nooks and more options to keep homes hygienic and germ-free, are <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e6b9a8ff-0812-49ad-9eae-84125433ad4b"><u><strong>trends being seen across the industry globally</strong></u></a>.</p>

<h2><strong>Final thoughts</strong></h2>

<p>As we look to innovative ways of community development, we would need to retrofit existing communities. But with proper urban planning and rigorous investigation into how we can best meet the needs of a changing world, we can strategically design these new requirements right from the beginning of new projects.</p>

<p><em>Lead image: Bloomdale community development, Victoria. Credit: AVID Property Group</em></p>
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Olivia Round

3 ways urban community design needs to change post COVID-19

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p class="legacy">Conventional transport infrastructure planning has been based on wholesale commuting to and from the city centre. </p>
<p>Long-term planning has delivered mass transit systems to cater for high-patronage, hub-and-spoke transport systems. Unfortunately, this has left many city residents <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019%20-%205.%20Transport.pdf">without basic access to public transport services</a>. And we could never have planned for the impacts of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Our previous plans were based on the best available data at the time. Today, these plans must be critically reviewed using new data that properly represent the world and our transport needs as they are now.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Important facts to keep in mind</em></p>
<p><strong>1: Fewer people commute to work.</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">work-from-home transition</a> is well under way. Our current transport networks (except for <a href="https://covid19.apple.com/mobility">roads</a>, which have rebounded to traffic equal to or above pre-pandemic levels in some cities) are operating far below previous levels, even allowing for social distancing. This may not be the best time to break ground on major infrastructure projects planned under previous assumptions of population and demand growth.</p>
<p><strong>2: Disadvantaged populations lack access to opportunities.</strong></p>
<p>Public transport is key to enabling everyone in a population to be a productive member of society. Many disadvantaged groups cannot drive or afford car ownership. However, they also <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">lack access to public transport</a>, particularly in the outer suburbs.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, coronavirus impacts will <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">hit the disadvantaged the hardest</a>. If we want everyone to be able to participate in the economic recovery, we need to promote basic levels of access regardless of an individual’s circumstance.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>3: Population growth will not meet projections.</strong></p>
<p>Migration bans will greatly reduce short-term growth. Current projections show a population <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-4-million-less-than-projected-how-coronavirus-could-hit-australias-population-in-the-next-20-years-143544">up to 4% smaller in 2040</a> than it would have been in a non-COVID world. This will further decrease demand for urban transit services as well as demand across many sectors of our society. These trends are important because much of our planning is based around these population growth metrics.</p>
<p>However, our suburbs still lack basic public transport services. If we want to increase patronage, we need to bring services to more people by improving coverage of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-need-to-give-up-on-crowded-cities-we-can-make-density-so-much-better-131304">sprawling, low-density cities</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">Over 80% of the population</a> of our biggest cities live in the outer and middle suburbs, yet this massive majority have limited to no basic public transport service. Across our five largest cities, Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">reports</a>, “public transport disadvantage in outer suburbs is significant”.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Populations living in inner, middle and outer suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide"><br><em><span class="caption">Estimated resident population by suburban classification, as count and proportion of city population.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">Infrastructure Australia: Outer Urban Public Transport: Improving accessibility in lower-density areas</a></span></em></p>
<p>Households’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">access to jobs and services gets much worse</a> with increasing distance from the city centre. Development of suburban and regional <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) offerings</a> could promote better access in these “harder to serve” areas.</p>
<p><strong>Moving the country forward</strong></p>
<p>Job creation will be an important aspect of economic recovery. Yet too often we look to large construction projects as the answer. There is plenty of other job-creating work to be done in our communities.</p>
<p>We could, for example, increase the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">miserly funding</a> for our piecemeal walking and cycling networks.</p>
<p>We could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">expand on-demand services</a> to suburban and rural residents who lack basic public transport access. On-demand transit does not follow fixed routes or timetables. Riders book a trip for a cost similar to a bus fare.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Passenger waiting to board a Bridj on-demand bus service."><br><em><span class="caption">Bridj is one of the operators that is expanding on-demand services in Sydney and other cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/TakeBridj/photos/a.1412498639012150/2080642258864448/">Bridj Transit Systems/Facebook</a></span></em></p>
<p>These options will <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-the-sums-bicycle-friendly-changes-are-good-business-58213">encourage local spending to support small businesses</a>. These are an important piece of our social fabric and improve <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-reminds-us-how-liveable-neighbourhoods-matter-for-our-well-being-135806">livability in our communities</a>.</p>
<p><strong>We need to look locally</strong></p>
<p>A focus on localised investment in the many neglected communities across the country will deliver major benefits. Money already committed to large projects that are under way represents sunk costs that may be too deep to renegotiate. However, future plans using public funds must be re-examined.</p>
<p>Investments should target disadvantaged groups and broaden access to transport networks, encouraging new potential users. For many, assistance in gaining access to the necessities of life will be invaluable during the coming economic recovery. Guaranteed access to groceries, medical services, work opportunities and <a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">recreational activities</a> must not be reserved for the elite.</p>
<p>We need better localised public transport and we need it for the majority of citizens, not just those who live in the inner suburbs of our capital cities. Most regional populations lack even rudimentary public transport coverage at reasonable frequency.</p>
<p>Increasing services in these areas will create valuable jobs that will stick around, unlike large one-off construction projects. The money will stay local, going into the pockets of operators who live and work in their own community.</p>
<p>While our long-term planning is not to blame for our current situation, we need to develop for the future, not the past. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">financial costs</a> of building and maintaining our current infrastructure are not going away. However, we can no longer refuse to invest in many of our underserved communities.</p>
<p>It is time to ensure everyone, regardless of their income or where they grow up, has the basic services they need to be a productive member of society.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/benjamin-kaufman-611843">Benjamin Kaufman</a>, PhD Candidate, Cities Research Institute, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-impacts-demand-a-change-of-plan-funding-a-shift-from-commuting-to-living-locally-144802">original article</a>.</p>
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