<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

<p data-end="315" data-start="85">The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.</p>

<p data-end="499" data-start="317">The project, to be known as <strong data-end="376" data-start="345">Capella Residences Brisbane</strong>, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.</p>

<p data-end="899" data-start="501">The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.</p>

<p data-end="1154" data-start="901">The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.</p>

<p data-end="1387" data-start="1156">The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.</p>

<p data-end="1387" data-start="1156"><img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" /></p>

<p data-end="1611" data-start="1389">Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.</p>

<p data-end="1823" data-start="1613">Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.</p>

<p data-end="2042" data-start="1825">The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.</p>

<p data-end="2177" data-start="2044">The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.</p>

<p data-end="2420" data-start="2179">The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2422">"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.</p>

<p data-end="2858" data-start="2726">"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."</p>

<p data-end="3130" data-start="2860">Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.</p>

<p data-end="3415" data-start="3132">"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.</p>

<p data-end="3658" data-start="3417">"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."</p>

<p data-end="3820" data-start="3660">Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.</p>

<p data-end="3961" data-start="3822">"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.</p>

<p data-end="4083" data-start="3963">"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."</p>

<p data-end="4227" data-start="4085">Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.</p>


Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

<p>Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.</p>

<p>The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.</p>

<p><img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.</p>

<p>"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.</p>

<p>"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.</p>

<p>"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."</p>

<p><img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" /></p>

<p>Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.</p>

<p>The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.</p>

<p>"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.</p>

<p>"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."</p>

<p>Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.</p>

<p>"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.</p>

<p>"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."</p>

<p>Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]</p>


Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

<p>Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a></p>

<p>The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.</p>

<p>The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.</p>

<p>The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]</p>

<p>Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.</p>

<p>"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.</p>

<p>"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."</p>

<p>Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.</p>

<p>"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.</p>

<p>"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]</p>

<p>Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.</p>

<p>"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.</p>

<p>"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.</p>

<p>"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."</p>

<p>The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.</p>


KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

<p>The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD</p>

<p>The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.</p>

<p>The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.</p>

<p>A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.</p>

<p>“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.</p>

<p>"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."</p>

<p>Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]</p>

<p>Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.</p>

<p>Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.</p>

<p>With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.</p>

<p>It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.</p>

<p>Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.</p>

<p>"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”</p>

<p>Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]</p>

<p>Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.</p>

<p>The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.</p>

<p>"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.</p>

<p>"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.</p>

<p>“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”</p>

<p>Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]</p>


Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

COVID-19

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Every quarter I write <em>The Price Predictor Index</em>, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.</span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p8"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Very few cases of COVID-19 in Australia, with a handful of cases returning from overseas and headed to quarantine. </p>
<p id="post-body-464826279062726739" class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4cgHNMSh-oQ/Xsx2s06IRqI/AAAAAAAA16g/wDLDtpPvcfkunQPJ6ms16Hj1eSX8Ba3kQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1410"></div>
<br><div>Recoveries continue to comfortably outstrip new cases.</div>
<br><div>And, importantly, we're consistently seeing zero deaths reported on a daily basis, with few serious cases even going as far as ICU. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oq1uYHyB-KM/Xsx2tGzEx0I/AAAAAAAA16o/8yxL_txLTsEmUkq7S9oXm1PF9d9-Es09gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1409"></div>
<br><div>There are 5 cases remaining in ICU nationally, against the expanded capacity of 7,500 beds.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong>Confidence returning</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer confidence increased for an 8th consecutive week, up by +0.4 per cent to a reading of 92.7 points according to ANZ-Roy Morgan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Future financial conditions gained by +3.2 per cent and is approaching its long term average reading.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vCSe5Ue0BOI/Xsx2s1gwkFI/AAAAAAAA16k/Zeb8FGowur8NGJMmSaZfv2E44F65IjhawCPcBGAYYCw/s640/CC2.jpg" width="640" height="502" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1011"></div>
<br><div><span><em>Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan</em></span></div>
<br><div>Credit card usage data shows that Aussies are willing and able to spend again, but realistically travel restrictions needs to be eased before the economy can begin to fire up properly.</div>
</div>
<div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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Confidence up for 8th consecutive week: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>In brighter news, there's been no COVID-19 community transmission to speak of in Australia this week...ex-Victoria. </p>
<p>Unfortunately the Victorian government's shocking mismanagement of hotel quarantine means that there's now a potentially nasty second wave of the virus spreading exclusively in that state. </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xOh3b4Tga-M/Xwn9wtOrb4I/AAAAAAAA25w/iEmfMiNIxQgg1LywLx57S7j_pky0hB5IQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1424"></p>
<p>With another couple of hundred cases over the past 24 hours Victoria now has 1,124 active cases.  </p>
<p>Elsewhere local cases have essentially been running at zero all week, which is a great result. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eynQCsE-Zi4/Xwn9-8_aB4I/AAAAAAAA254/rYXy5NxU5lc1mZ-OaFR1YfceGXg9UYhsgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1409"></p>
<p>Victoria will now go into another lockdown, this time for at least six weeks, which is a disastrous hammer blow for the local economy. </p>
<p><strong>Auctions slump</strong></p>
<p>Sydney recorded rock solid auction results on Saturday, with the median price of property sold under the hammer rising to $1,260,000. </p>
<p>In Melbourne. however, auction success volumes and results have unsurprisingly begun to plummet as consumer confidence has been demolished by the lockdown announcement.<br><br>Alas it's now only a matter of time before someone rolls out another 'tale of two cities headline'...sigh.</p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bS9hrg3w0aM/Xwn-fG6nTCI/AAAAAAAA26I/K1-zMVsC9cE0307sg6isljwJ2gh9q--YACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AUc.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="681"></p>
<p><span>To date Melbourne's housing prices have fallen by about 3 per cent since April.</span></p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kOYG-7W4zJU/Xwn_kvtbqkI/AAAAAAAA26U/sEObUN7SdaYsMamI1aEtXuej2Lsf2vfMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV3.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447"></p>
<p><strong>Look out below</strong></p>
<p>I'm not usually in the business of making serious predictions, which are usually broad brush and often prove to be pointless.</p>
<p>But these sorts of auction results in Melbourne have normally been commensurate with something close to double digit pace declines in housing prices, and in all likelihood may point to a 10 to 20 per cent decline in Melbourne's market.<br><br>Given that Greater Melbourne is Australia's second largest economic hub - and that it's long been accounting for such a significant share of growth - the decision to lock down for six weeks has all but cruelled the chance of a meaningful recovery any time soon. </p>
<p>Research across half a century of historical data from the Bank of England has shown that falling house prices lead to fear of negative equity, falling confidence, and consumers declining to spend, borrow, or invest.</p>
<p> If the Federal government wants to stand any chance of getting the Australian economy back on its feet this year the Treasurer should announce on July 23 a temporary stamp duty holiday for the remainder of 2020 (and fund the difference for the states by making use of bond yields at record lows).</p>
<p>Alternatively, and more sustainably, broaden the GST and raise the rate to 12.5 per cent. </p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Melbourne lockdown kills chance for a meaningful property recovery: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Melbourne markets have held up better than most against the forces of Covid-19. The number of growth markets has dropped but it remains at solid levels – and prices have continued to perform well, in defiance of predictions (by the usual suspects) of a collapse.</p>
<p>The latest quarterly survey of sales activity by Hotspotting has found fewer growth suburbs than the previous survey, but still better than all other quarters since the Melbourne market peak in 2017.</p>
<p>This tells us that the Melbourne market has dropped in terms of sales activity, thanks to the restrictions imposed for the coronavirus, but remained stronger than during the post-boom downturn phase that extended throughout 2018 and early 2019.</p>
<p>Melbourne has done particularly well with price performance – with houses coming back strongly in the most recent quarter, but with apartments doing better than houses in annual terms.</p>
<p>In the past 12 months, two-thirds of Melbourne suburbs with apartment markets recorded growth in their median unit prices – and most of those growth suburbs increased their median prices by more than 5%.</p>
<p>House markets were less positive in annual terms, with only one-third recording price growth over the past months.</p>
<p>But the situation with house prices is starkly different when looking at the most recent data: 88% of Melbourne suburbs recorded growth in their median house prices in the most recent quarter.</p>
<p>This reflects the overall trend in the market. In the first half of 2019, Melbourne prices generally were falling, following the end of the previous boom and impacted also by the lead-up to the Federal Election.</p>
<p>Markets started to recover in the second half of 2019 and the early months of 2020 – so that most suburbs were recording price growth in their housing markets, but two-thirds still remained below the levels of 12 months earlier.</p>
<p>The data suggests Melbourne markets have been resilient price-wise in the Covid-19 period, despite the fall in sales activity which is reflected in our Winter 2020 survey of sales volumes.</p>
<p>In the circumstances, a result of 32 suburbs with growing sales activity is a solid performance and is better than all the quarterly surveys of 2018 and 2019.</p>
<p>The Mornington Peninsula has been the standout performer in our Winter 2020 survey: seven suburbs have continued to deliver growth in sales activity. Growth suburbs include Blairgowrie, Hastings, McCrae, Rye, Safety Beach, Sorrento and Tootgarook.</p>
<p>Quarterly sales in Safety Beach have been 33 46 45 47 54 and 64 over the past 18 months and the median house has risen 3% in the latest quarter while the median unit price is up 25% over the past 12 months.</p>
<p>In Hastings, quarterly sales have been 43 49 67 69 and 73 – and the median house price has increased 4.6% in the most recent quarter.</p>
<p>The next best LGA in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activity is the upmarket Glen Eira LGA, with three growth suburbs and two consistency markets. The growth suburbs are Carnegie, Caulfield North and Ormond.</p>
<p>There are seven municipalities with two growth suburbs each, including the Moreland LGA where both Brunswick East (63 79 80 83 and 86) and Brunswick West (52 60 63 76 and 83) are growth markets.</p>
<p>The Brunswick West unit market has been particularly strong, with notable growth in its median price both for the most recent quarter and over the past 12 months (up 18%).</p>
<p>This Winter 2020 survey has identified 11 suburbs as declining markets – a surprisingly small number given the Covid-19 circumstances – and three danger markets.</p>
<p>The locations we have ranked as danger markets are the Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands, all inner-city apartments markets where sales activity has dropped markedly at a time when vacancy rates have spiked because of the Covid-19 impacts.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au </em><br><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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Melbourne market holding up better than most during Covid-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>One of the recent trends in real estate is more people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city.</p>
<p>This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work from home or by improved transport links.</p>
<p>I’ve described Regional Victoria as the strongest market in the nation over the past two years, based on data on sales activity and price growth in multiple locations.</p>
<p>And much of the uplift in markets within an hour or two of Melbourne – in the north, north-west and the south-east – has been driven by buyers out of Melbourne, both home-buyers and investors.</p>
<p>In the six months before the onset of the virus-induced restrictions, there had also been a notable increase in sales activity, with consequent positive impact on prices, in regional areas close to Sydney, including the Central Coast, the Southern Highlands and the Wollongong region.</p>
<p>I believe this trend will be further exacerbated by the current situation, which is forcing people to work from home.</p>
<p>Some will make it a permanent arrangement – and increasingly we are seeing media commentary to that effect.</p>
<p>An article last week in the Herald Sun in Melbourne said:</p>
<p>Many Melburnians will leave the city behind for regional Victoria during the coronavirus crisis, property experts say.</p>
<p>Agencies are reporting a “significant increase” in inquiries about regional properties from city dwellers “seeing the benefits” of working from home due to the COVID-19 lockdown, and keener than ever to escape the “madness” of Melbourne life.</p>
<p>Others are viewing the pandemic-impacted market as offering opportunity to get their feet on the property ladder in affordable areas.</p>
<p>A report from JLL says the COVID-19 quarantine policies have sent employees of all levels – from chief executives to junior staff – home with laptops to their kitchen tables.</p>
<p>“With this mass experiment under way, there is a belief among workplace experts that such set-ups could become more prevalent at companies large and small,” it says.</p>
<p>“Well beyond the peak of the crisis, corporate culture and, more than likely, the digital skills of global workforces, will have changed in significant ways. Location and working hours could become more flexible, leading to better productivity and improved work life balance for individuals.”</p>
<p>Gillian Rowbotham, human experience director – Australasia at JLL, says: “Given how suddenly everything changed, that tech has stood up pretty well, and people are mostly enjoying the flexibility to manage their day according to what needs to be done, I think we are inevitably entering a new dawn in the workplace experience.”</p>
<p>Interior architect Iva Durakovic suggests the success of working from home will mark the end of the office as we current know it, with remote working becoming the new norm.</p>
<p>The Associate Lecturer at UNSW Built Environment believes that remote working arrangements will continue long after the coronavirus pandemic has passed and will also change the nature of office spaces for the better.</p>
<p>"We already saw this idea of a distributed workforce getting stronger - and this will only accelerate it,” she says.</p>
<p>She says that widespread working from home is shaking up the role of the traditional workplace and highlighting what is truly valuable.</p>
<p>"It will break down what we need to come to a traditional workplace for, like face-to-face contact, and the way the future work environment looks. And it will be very different."</p>
<p>All of this has consequences for real estate. It provides another good reason for property investors to consider regional real estate, which offers greater affordability and higher rental yields than the big cities – and, if you choose your location well, good potential for capital growth.</p>
<p>We’ve seen excellent price growth in the past year or two, not only in Regional Victoria, but also in regional locations in NSW, Tasmania, South Australia and increasingly in Queensland.</p>
<p>TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</p>
<p><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a></p>
<p>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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Regionalisation: The positive real estate trends exacerbated by COVID-19: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Yet another inflation target miss was recorded for the June quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing too earth-shattering there - the target has consistently been missed for years - but this one was a real corker, with headline inflation down by -1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now the annual inflation rate has also turned negative, which a true rarity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stated the ABS:</div>
<div><strong><em> </em></strong></div>
<div><em>'Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. </em></div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em>The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98.'</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Underlying inflation was pretty flat for the quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zkgBciXdxgs/XyE29Bo1OQI/AAAAAAAA3VE/jP62pSmF3WkjpTlN7WZf3iGlg6YJuvchQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/PW.jpg" width="640" height="126" data-original-height="135" data-original-width="683"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Grattan recently produced a fairly damning indexed chart showing how inflation would've tracked higher had the target been hit over the past five years versus the actuals, a period through which there's been a persistent output gap, weak wages growth, and oodles of spare labour force capacity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're still getting no closer to the inflation target then. </div>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GuyrxR0LcdU/XyE197Iof6I/AAAAAAAA3Us/7ilsxHD355ESAA7OgfmRuvoGqYN1PbStwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1361"></p>
<p>The main contributors to the weakness over the quarter included declining childcare and fuel prices.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jv2DrjN1hpA/XyE19w7O2II/AAAAAAAA3Uw/6gSiXaKog4syvMHwDoL7a3v4uZor3qU0wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1348"></p>
<p>The CBD rental markets were hit with a swathe of Airbnb and student rentals in the June quarter, and the rental price index also turned negative year-on-year...for the first time ever. </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xopSOfZK4aM/XyE2GoQgGHI/AAAAAAAA3U0/on8rPBYcHIwdFBDw-AA6TgZAGutBgM-8wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1427"></p>
<p>There will be something of a bounce in Q3 in some categories, and truthfully there weren't too many surprises here, but overall there's a long way to go before things recover.</p>
<div>Detailed report as always from from James Foster here.</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Annual inflation negative for the third time ever: Pete Wargent

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<p>Just one in 10 cash-strapped borrowers who took a COVID-19 mortgage break from repayments to the big four banks have exited the payment relief program.</p>
<p class="indent">The Australian Banking Association confirmed many Australians are unwilling to make any repayments.</p>
<p class="indent">About 485,000 mortgages have been deferred in Australia with the nation’s largest seven banks, including the Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Suncorp and Bank of Queensland.</p>
<p class="indent">But new data released by the big four banks found that in May and June:</p>
<p>• About 75,800 customers on mortgage deferrals had exited the repayment holiday program (9 per cent).</p>
<p>• About 50,000 are making partial repayments and 62,500 are making full repayments (15 per cent).</p>
<p class="indent">The ABA’s chief executive, former Queensland premier Anna Bligh, said there was "a very long road and plenty of hurdles to clear." </p>
<p class="indent">Customers were initially given repayment deferral for up to six months, but banks are set to offer further extensions.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Most mortgage relief recipients still taking COVID-19 repayment break

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.</p>
<p>Hotspotting’s Winter 2020 survey of sales activity has identified 54 growth markets and 30 consistency markets, down only marginally on the results of the previous (Autumn 2020) survey, which found 55 growth locations and 34 consistency ones. This was the strongest performance by Regional Queensland in three years and the results of this latest survey are only slightly inferior.</p>
<p>The number of “declining” markets has reduced (from 12 to six to four in recent surveys) and there are now few danger markets in Regional Queensland outside of the perennial struggler, Mount Isa.</p>
<p>Compared to the Covid-inspired deterioration in the results of other major jurisdictions across the nation, this is a commendable performance – and provides further evidence that regional areas have done much better in the pandemic period than the biggest capital cities.</p>
<p>The well-performing markets include Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Gympie and Toowoomba, as well as the Regional Queensland heavyweights, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.</p>
<p>In addition, we have seen further evidence of recovery in the Gladstone market, after multiple years in decline.</p>
<p>We continue to rate the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and it has produced another solid result in this winter survey. The Sunshine Coast Regional Council area and neighbouring Noosa Shire have 11 suburbs with rising sales activity and eight others with consistent sales performance. There are also a number of locations which have delivered strong price growth in the past 12 months.</p>
<p>Nearby Gympie has a number of growth locations and is poised for a sustained period of growth, given major infrastructure projects and its improved links to the boom Sunshine Coast economy.</p>
<p>Sales activity overall in Gold Coast City has declined, unsurprisingly given the impact of Covid-19 on an economy so heavily reliant on tourism. This is reflected in the 35 suburbs with plateau markets. Nevertheless, there remain 10 suburbs with rising sales activity.</p>
<p>There are solid performers spread across Queensland, stretching from Townsville in the far north to more southerly locations like Hervey Bay and the inland city of Toowoomba.</p>
<p>Townsville has five suburbs with growing sales and, boosted by major infrastructure projects, is poised for a recovery from the previous downturn.</p>
<p>Mackay, a growth market we have noted in previous surveys, also has five growth suburbs and has a number of locations delivering strong price growth. Sales in South Mackay have been 20-27-35-34-52 in the past five quarters, a pattern which had led to strong price growth recently.</p>
<p>Rockhampton is showing increasing signs of revival, with four growth suburbs and three with consistent sales performance. The suburb of Berserker has lifted quarterly sales from 21 to 31 to 33 to 43 in the past year. Frenchville and Gracemere display similar growth patterns.</p>
<p>The Fraser Coast, based on Hervey Bay, is showing increasing signs of a growth phase, with five suburbs with growing buyer demand.</p>
<p>Toowoomba, after several years of moderate activity, is showing symptoms of a rising market, with three growth and four consistency suburbs.</p>
<p>The one disappointing result comes from Cairns, which stood out strongly in the previous Autumn survey as a rising market with nine growth suburbs. But this Winter survey finds only two growth suburbs, with sales in most Cairns suburbs falling away recently. This is an economy strong reliant on tourism, including international visitors, which has taken a serious hit from Covid-19.</p>
<p>Regional Queensland has also performed well on price growth. Six out of 10 locations have produced some level of growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and most of those where prices have declined have done so only marginally.</p>
<p>The Sunshine Coast has a number of strong performers with annual price growth, led by Warana (19%), Minyama (16%) and Noosa Heads (11%).</p>
<p>The Gold Coast also has a number of growth locations, including Runaway Bay (18%), Worongary (15%), Palm Beach (11%) and Mermaid Waters (10%).</p>
<p>Mackay has some outstanding performers, including South Mackay (16%), Blacks Beach (14%) and Bucasia (10%).</p>
<p>I’ve previously noted the revival signs in Gladstone, with vacancies down and rents rising. We are now seeing evidence of prices rising, although from a low base. West Gladstone is up 16% and Glen Eden 23% in annual terms, while Calliope, New Auckland and Tannum Sands have all risen 8-9% in the past year.</p>
<p>Other resources-related locations where prices are rising from low bases include Moranbah (up 19%, but still only with a median of $240,000) and Blackwater (up 45%, but with typical houses still worth only $130,000).</p>
<p>Emerald is headed back to growth, with quarterly sales of 50-56-59-63-72 in the past five quarters.</p>
<p><strong>Terry Ryder</strong><em> is the founder of hotspotting.com.au </em><br><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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Regional Queensland market maintained strong performance despite COVID

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-4827528758440754749" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Australia's recent figures on COVID-19 have been nothing short of remarkable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest you think that's an exaggeration, think back to what the medical experts were forecasting only one month ago, which was a tragically similar path to the worst hit countries. </div>
<br><div>Yesterday, Australia ramped up the daily total in testing to a much larger 14,980, of which 42 tested positive, or 0.3 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More than 411,000 tests have now been carried out nationwide. </div>
<div>
<br>Encouragingly the rate testing positive has continued to fall very consistently from 2.8 per cent on March 30 to just 0.3 per cent yesterday. </div>
<div>
<br>Greg Hunt noted this morning that total new confirmed cases have increased by under 1 per cent for each of the past seven days, resulting in a 'genuine and sustained flattening of the curve'.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XDEE0SHWHfM/XpuhfCrmNsI/AAAAAAAA1TY/Ilk9aBeQHF08UX8-dm6DThw4sleJO5ItwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CV2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XDEE0SHWHfM/XpuhfCrmNsI/AAAAAAAA1TY/Ilk9aBeQHF08UX8-dm6DThw4sleJO5ItwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1406"></a></div>
<br><div>There were 10 new confirmed cases yesterday in New South Wales relating to two known clusters (Anglicare at Caddens in Western Sydney, and the Ruby Princess cruise ship). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That result was from a very substantial 5,152 tests.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today Victoria reported just 9 new cases from 3,000 tests, and Queensland had only five new confirmed cases.<br><br>North-west Tasmania has seen a cluster of cases related to hospitals, while elsewhere in the country numbers have fallen to zero, or very close to zero in recent days. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nqTokFlFV44/XpuhfAF0frI/AAAAAAAA1Tc/uG-qTZK6MgQMRfh6X_l8_4L7CqvcknDnQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CV1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nqTokFlFV44/XpuhfAF0frI/AAAAAAAA1Tc/uG-qTZK6MgQMRfh6X_l8_4L7CqvcknDnQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1407"></a></div>
<br><div>Recoveries have comfortably exceeded new cases over the past week, and the number in ICU has almost halved, down by another 6 today to just 49 (versus the planned expanded capacity of 7,000), with 31 presently on ventilators. </div>
<div>
<br>Greg Hunt reported today that Australia has received some 60 million masks, which is 6 million than anticipated, and two weeks early than expected.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is 'the envy of the world' according to the government reports; let's hope it stays that way.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Miraculous improvement in COVID-19 cases: Pete Wargent

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<p>Commentary on the future direction of the residential property sector has been diverse.</p>
<p>As Gary Brinkworth, the boss of the Herron Todd White valuation firm recently noted, some observers are expecting a subtle slowdown, while others predict a catastrophic collapse.</p>
<div title="Page 4">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>He suggests these views fail to understand the complexity of the Australian residential property sector and that having specialist knowledge at a localised level was key to good decision making.</p>
<p>It adds its can be difficult to keep up as markets adapt to the challenges around COVID-19.</p>
<p>"Some locations have seen monumental disturbance to their usual state of affairs, while others have barely registered a ripple.</p>
<p>"COVID-19 has amplified the diversity of Australia’s resident property markets by location, price point and property type," he added.</p>
<p>Well informed valuers, like well informed estate agents, are well informed on sales activity and price direction.</p>
<p>Brinkworth acknowledged Herron Todd White in Sydney made the decision in early March that all staff would work from home.</p>
<p>The decision was made to ensure that any potential exposure to the virus did not place further risk on other staff and their clients, whose homes they inspect daily.</p>
<p>They changed the way they conduct inspections - with hand sanitiser, face masks and disposable gloves becoming just as importan as their tablets and laser measurers.</p>
<div title="Page 5">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>HTW has also developed a contactless inspection tool which allows occupants to take internal photos which feed straight into their valuation system, allowing valuations when a COVID-19 related concern means a property cannot be fully assessed.</p>
<div title="Page 5">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>This has allowed mortgage applications to proceed instead of being delayed by weeks or even months until internal access became available.</p>
<p>His team, while noting some statistics may not yet be showing a decline in values across the Sydney market, have seen evidence from selling agents indicates that values are falling, particularly in some areas and for some price sectors, although not necessarily uniformly within these sub-markets.</p>
<div title="Page 5">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>The rental market has seen a more immediate impact however, with listings increasing and rents falling, which will certainly have an impact on yields and prices.</p>
<p>Looking around the regions the Northern Beaches has appeared to absorb much of the negative sentiment and restrictions surrounding the pandemic, although "there is a strong chance you will be paying less than you would have three months ago for the same product."</p>
<div title="Page 6">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p>The slowdown in volumes of transactions in inner Sydney and the Eastern Suburbs made it difficult to ascertain any emerging pattern emerging, but HTW advised in previous downturns, the inner city market segment most vulnerable to volatility is the upsizer price bracket, typically from $2 million to $3 million.</p>
<div title="Page 6">
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<p>It also noted properties falling in the Airbnb sector are being impacted, for obvious reasons. </p>
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<p>HTW have been still seeing reasonably strong activity in the west, particularly at the entry level.</p>
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<p>Like the eastern suburbs, the North Shore prestige market is more accustomed to off-market transactions, so recent restrictions around open for inspections and public auctions have not impacted this part of the market as much as lower price points.</p>
<p>Overall HTW conclude the long term outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic for the property market is uncertain.</p>
<p>The Sydney property market is resilient, as seen by the recovery from the 2017 to 2019 downturn. </p>
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<p>However, HTW anticipate a slower return to normal, depending on just where unemployment numbers end up and the extent of a decrease in short term immigration numbers.</p>
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