The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Last Thursday, an article by Mercedes Rueh highlighted the emerging trend of hubs and co-working spaces in Melbourne and other Australian capital cities.
What you need to take away from the article is that the nature of work is changing. And therefore, creating new opportunities for you and other commercial property investors, who are flexible and forward thinking.
What are co-working hubs?
Co-working spaces are shared offices with most of the facilities that you would find in a normal office — such as wi-fi access, audio visual equipment, coffee machines.
They can be large open working spaces with tables, or split into larger and smaller rooms. It just depends on the style and preference of the users for the space.
Individual and groups workers are able to rent space for hourly, daily, weekly or monthly fees or set monthly fees.
You are starting to find these hub facilities popping up in most Australian capital cities.
Who actually uses shared work-spaces?
Co-working spaces are the first choice for many 'bootstrapping' start-ups because they offer the features of a normal offices space with lower costs. But it is not just small start-ups using this hub format.
Deloitte, AMP Capital, the NSW government, the GPT Group and CBRE are just a few of the companies experimenting with dynamic work spaces.
These spaces are becoming more popular because they foster creativity, collaboration and community which benefit employees and managers.
The demand for co-working spaces is only increasing — as office workers, specifically Gen Y, demand work that is more flexible and engaging.
What does this mean for landlords?
The uses of commercial property are changing in many ways. And the emerging co-working trend offers you the opportunity to add value to your properties.
At the end of an existing lease, or when a tenant vacates — you could clear out an older office building floor. Then refurbish the office with as a modern co-working space.
The secret then lies in securing one of the emerging, more-progressive corporates. Or a single "entrepreneurial" head tenant, who will then assume responsibility for arranging and coordinating all the smaller users.
Bottom line is if you simply allow yourself think outside the box and recognise emerging trends in the commercial property market you'll always be able to find opportunities to significantly add value to your older portfolio.
 
<hr>
 Chris Lang is an advisor to commercial property investors, sell-out author and regular speaker on how to invest in commercial property. 
 
You can visit his website <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://property-edge.com.au/">Property Edge Australia</a> to help you get the most out of your commercial property investing.
 
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chrislang-EQKojcgJPV

Breathing life back into your old office: Chris Lang

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A hotspot report can be a good way to start thinking about locations where property prices are likely to rise over the coming years.
They will also provide information about demographics, infrastructure, amenities and the type of properties to consider within a “hotspot”location to help guide your thinking.
But you should not rely on hotspot reports alone and certainly not assume that capital growth is guaranteed.
As highlighted by hotspotting.com.au’s Terry Ryder, there i sno such thing as a “bulletproof” suburb.
To make sure your decisions are based on solid facts the key is research, research, research.
Read absolutely anything and everything about the property market in your chosen area.
Extract information from friends and family who have residential holdings. Track sale prices against original asking prices using local papers and residential listings websites.
What is the sales history of the property and its neighbours?
The internet has enabled buyers to be better informed than everbefore, and for free.
You may also consider purchasing an independent report on a suburb or street from the likes of RP Data, Residex or Australian Property Monitors.
 
<hr>
This article is from Property Observer's free ebook <a href="/guides/free-ebook-top-10-property-investment-tips">Top 10 Property Investment Tips</a>
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Get tips from hotspot reports, but do your own due diligence and research

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By the close of business today, thousands of people will have queued around 20 big, flashy Apple shops across the country and smaller telco outlets like Telstra’s shops to look at and then buy a new Apple iPhone 5.
The hundreds of thousands of dollars they will spend today and into the following weeks will be money that won’t be spent in other retail outlets or activities.
And earlier this week, as many of us with teenagers will know, Grand Theft Auto V came out. It sold a record $US800 million worth in the first 24 hours in the US and Europe. Yes, $800 million! That’s more than all but the biggest Hollywood blockbuster movies make. Oh and by the way, new gaming consoles are coming from Microsoft and Sony later in the year. They’ll be accompanied by a new Call of Duty title. Expect similar numbers to GTA V —?except the main interest in CoD titles is online multiplayer gaming, for which you need not only a quality broadband connection but also an Xbox or PlayStation subscription. In the June quarter, Microsoft earned US$1.7 billion from Xbox Live points.
And by the close of business today, millions of dollars will have flown into the bank accounts of Westpac, CBA and their peers from millions of mortgage owners who are repaying their home loans faster than they have to. That’s part of the continuing deleveraging trend as bank deposits soar while consumers and especially home owners save, save, save, instead of spend, spend, spend, which in turn has confused retailers and others in government.
These are all reasons why big retailers?—?Solly Lew and the hands-on Mark McInnes at Premier Investment, Bernie Brookes at Myer, Gerry Harvey and so on?—?will continue to whinge about how tough they’re doing it. Retail in Australia is changing, and the change is clobbering their business models. And the change isn’t just the switch to online purchasing, GST-exempt services and food, as we’ve so often explained.
The spending on smartphones, not to mention the apps that you can buy for them (worth <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/19/gartner-102b-app-store-downloads-globally-in-2013-26b-in-sales-17-from-in-app-purchases/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">US$26.7 billion in revenue this year</a>), diverts revenue from existing shops and services into fast-growing areas of consumption dominated not by traditional retailers but by emerging retailers like Apple and telcos. Although iPods and mobile phones have been around for a decade or more, it’s only with the advent of the iPhone (and smartphones generally) and tablets that the sector has grown enormously. Moreover, it’s telcos that manage the accounts of smartphone owners, which sucks  billions of dollars more out of the domestic economy that a decade ago would have been available to be spent on consumable items and services.
Solomon Lew has locked himself out of this trend completely, preferring to concentrate on stay in clothing and apparel. That has hurt his group’s sales and profits, but Lew refuses to acknowledge that, preferring to blame online GST-free purchases from offshore, or bad management by the former ALP federal government.
Meantime, other new product categories have emerged that also have a significant diversionary effect. Gaming has long been dismissed as trivial and juvenile, but the numbers show it is a major entertainment product with, as the Xbox Live revenue shows, an ongoing revenue stream even between major event titles like GTA and CoD.Those titles do need to be physically purchased at an outlet, whether it’s a games store (a retail form that is going the way of the video store) or more likely an outlet like JB Hi-Fi. A rapidly growing segment of gaming is entirely online, purchased via outlets like Steam, despite the blatant gouging of Australians customers that game manufacturers engage in.
A key feature of these new categories is that they are based offshore. We don’t make or design smartphones here, and we don’t produce blockbuster video games, or game consoles. In fact, we don’t produce many entrepreneurs who have the smarts to develop new product categories at all. That means that the stronger the currency, the bigger the impact on traditional retail of these new categories. And right now, with the dollar regaining some of the recent and welcome fall in value, that means things will continue to worsen for retailers.
At least buying a game or an iPhone in Australia will generate GST revenue, if not enough for WA Premier Colin Barnett’s liking (Prime Minister Tony Abbott this morningagain ruled out altering the GST despite Barnett’s plea yesterday). But mortgage prepayments and rising bank deposits (up $125 billion in the year to June) means more diversion: money is being saved and not spent on products and services that attract GST. Some of us remember the 1980s when Australians were continually lectured to save more, or even the early part of last decade when our very low savings rate was said to be a cause of concern. Now the government hopes to knock our prudence and caution out of us so we spend more.
According to APRA figures there are about 4.8 million mortgages on issue in Australia, with around a third of those (1.6 million) held by investors who have a vested interest in not repaying their loans faster than they should because their investment is tax driven. The remaining mortgages are held by owner-occupiers, and upwards of 60% of these are repaying their mortgages faster than they should.
Yesterday, the RBA provided more evidence of the impact of this faster pace of repayments, with <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/sep/pdf/bu-0913-4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">a research paper</a> revealing that between 50 and 90% of the 2.25 percentage points of rate cuts since late 2011 have been used for faster than normal mortgage payments. The RBA says this has cut credit growth for home lending by around 0.8% (which is equal to two months of nominal growth at the moment.
Credit growth in the year to July was 4.6%, up from 4.4% a couple of months ago. The 0.8% impact from the prepayments would have pushed growth to around 5.5%. The RBA researchers say that assuming no more changes interest rates, the impact of the high level of prepayments on credit growth will peak at 1% in 2014.
Traditional retailers might be better off thinking about why they’ve been left behind by consumption and savings trends, rather than begging for assistance. There’s?—?for once?—?<a href="https://www.afr.com/p/opinion/us_federal_reserve_to_test_tony_SM5erLtkJQzvBPZivtyu8M" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">a very good editorial </a>in the Australian Financial Review today suggesting that the best response to a strong currency isn’t to try to prop up industries like car manufacturing. “Australian business cannot depend on the Reserve Bank to dull the pain of a high dollar by cutting interest rates lower and lower,” the Fin concluded. Absolutely. And that applies as much to retailers as to manufacturers?—?or state governments such as Western Australia, which wants the rest of Australia to bail it out via a higher GST.

<hr>
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/" rel="nofollow">Crikey</a>.
 
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Grand Theft Retail: Why traditional retailers will continue doing it tough

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Location, location, location. The age old real estate mantra should not just apply to where you live. Choosing the right location should be a key element of any good business strategy.
The location you choose for your business is critical in positioning your brand, while a good choice in location will be vital in attracting and retaining the best staff.
But don't be enticed to a premium location if it doesn't match your brand. Alternatively, don’t be put off by the cost of a premium location until you’ve done your due diligence and understood the benefits it can bring to your business.  A premium location may retain good staff, so ultimately cut down on your recruiting and training budgets.
Having a clear understanding of your business strategy and how your organisation sits in its market environment are the first steps to choosing your location.  Here are a few tips to consider when that all important choice has to be made:
Position it right and talent will follow
 In order to attract a steady supply of the right people to your business, you need to consider the type of person you wish to attract, their ages, qualifications, salary expectations and where they live.  Once you have a clear understanding of their profile, choose a location which will appeal to them. 
Keep competition close
 In most countries and cities there are clear geographic clusters for certain types of organisations. Employees move between these organisations and become accustomed to the geography.
 
What location tells your clients
 Where do your potential clients expect you to be? A company's physical address sends market signals that should be in tune with your branding and convey the appropriate stature and size to your target market.
 
Be easy to work with
Look at the type of business you are in and where work is carried out. Some businesses need their sales or support personnel to be based according to their clients' geographies. Major call centres are often located in proximity to major telecommunications hubs.
 
Catch talent with an easy commute
Consider where your preferred talent are likely to reside, then ensure that you choose a location that is as easy commute.
Don’t expect staff to walk for a sandwich
Amenity covers a wide range of considerations, from convenient and affordable parking, to cafes and bars, retail, banking and other services.
 
There's safety in numbers
With longer working hours the norm for many organisations, the relative risks involved in making it safely into one's car, bus or train when leaving the workplace after dark do impact on people's employment decisions.
 
Pay only for what you need
Do you actually need a physical office presence? Some organisations may be able to operate successfully on a largely virtual basis, with team members working from their homes, co working sites or clients' sites. Where previously staff needed to work in a central office to be able to access records and equipment, this is no longer the case. However, for many organisations a central office fulfils important collaborative, social, cultural/brand and other requirements.
<hr>
David McEwen is a workplace strategy consultant with <a href="https://www.colliers.com.au/?" target="_parent">Colliers International</a>.
 
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Office location – what does it mean for your business? David McEwen

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On Thursday 5 March 2009, the Bank of England announced a cut in the official bank rate from 1.00% to 0.50%. This followed a rapid series of cuts in response to the impacts of the sub-prime fallout from 5.75% in July 2007.

The Bank of England has not cut interest rates any further since that time for 0.50% is effectively the 'zero bound' in the UK. We are heading towards five years later, so is there a chance of rates rising soon? Gradually people are beginning to think so as the economy improves, although Governor Carney recently announced guidance suggesting that rates could be stuck at 0.50% for three more years.
Down under, Australian government bond yields and spreads have ticked up in recent months, suggesting that the bottom of our own interest rate cycle may be closing in on us some time in the next year.
<img alt="Spread between Australian 10-year bond Yield and the Cash Rate graph" height="277" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/18-22-interest-rates/20tl-10ycrau-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-21-15-31-18" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
Elsewhere, government bond yields have ticked up, although US yields received a blow after the 'no taper' announcement from the Federal Reserve this week.
<img alt="10-year Government Bond Yields graph" height="261" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/18-22-interest-rates/19br-10yg3-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-21-15-31-18" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
The UK is by no means unique in its application of a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). In the US interest rates have been stuck at rock bottom since late 2008. Even in Australia, where we have not experienced a recession in more than 20 years, the cash rate has fallen sharply to only 2.50%.
<img alt="Australian Cash Rate graph" height="272" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/18-22-interest-rates/18bl-cr-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-21-15-11-11" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
In fact, take a look at other advanced economies - very low interest rate policies since the onset of the global financial crisis:
<img alt="Policy Interest Rates – Advanced Economies graph" height="272" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/18-22-interest-rates/18br-pradv-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-21-15-11-11" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
Inflation is a risk in some emerging markets and policy interest rates have tended to remain some way higher:
<img alt="Policy Interest Rates – Emerging Markets Asia graph" height="268" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/18-22-interest-rates/19tl-prasia-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-21-15-11-11" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
A new era?
This week the Federal Reserve in the US threw markets a curve-ball by announcing that it would not yet be tapering back its monetary stimulus, leading commentators to observe that the US economy is "addicted to stimulus".
There are some who now believe that rather than developed countries raising and lowering interest rates to stimulate or cool their respective economies, central banks will instead switch quantitative easing (QE) - the 'printing' of money' - on and off, in order to achieve the same outcomes.
Will this prove true? Well, in the short-term this might well be the case. But over the long term, history tells us that the direction and behaviour of interest rates are by no means predictable
During the Great Depression and after World War II the world saw periods where interest rates fell low and many felt that developed economies might never escape from their downward spiral and low rates. Yet by the 1980s inflation was raging and interest rates were instead spiralling upwards to 20% in the US, 15% in Australia and 15% in the UK.
What we can do about it?
In short, the defence against excessive monetary stimulus is to hold income-producing assets which represent a good inflation hedge - shares and well-located property. There is a lot of focus on whether share markets are 'higher' or 'lower' than where they were five years ago. Some markets, such as the S&amp;P 500 are at 'record highs'; the ASX 200 (XJO) index chart in Australia sits below where it was before the financial crisis:
<img height="220" src="https://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=xjo&amp;pi=Index&amp;ct=3&amp;tf=M10&amp;ovs=&amp;si=Code%20not%20supplied&amp;tima1=0&amp;tima2=0&amp;bi=2&amp;bima=0&amp;comt=index&amp;ds=xjo&amp;dovs=0&amp;ex=ASX&amp;ex2=ASX&amp;val=1&amp;stmp=20130922004134601" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
Source: ASX
What this overlooks is that equities are an income asset and therefore when tax-favoured dividends are included in returns, Aussie shares are also at all time highs and continue to represent a proven inflation-busting asset class. <img alt="ScreenHunter_65 Sep. 20 10.16" height="234" src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/ScreenHunter_65-Sep.-20-10.16.gif" width="320" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
If there is a risk of ongoing monetary stimulus, rock-bottom interest rates continuing and inflation hitting the economy, this simply makes it all the more important to have a better plan than just having cash in a bank account. 
<hr>
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His new book '<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' was released on 1 September 2013.
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Are we on the cusp of a low interest rates era? Pete Wargent

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Our Friday poll found that the majority of respondents are looking to purchase in the $300,000 to $400,000 bracket, further suggesting that they may be pushing up against first home buyers.
With 26.9% of readers pointing to the $300,000 to $400,000 bracket, and 62.7% looking to purchase under $500,000 in total, it looks like investors will be driving the affordable bracket.
<img alt="poll-results-sept-23" height="320" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/09/23/poll-results-sept-23.jpg">
With investors pouring into the market, and talks of prices rising substantially in some capitals, it’s no wonder that first time buyers are starting to feel the heat.
Of course, there are two waves of thought here. One goes along the lines of ‘get in now before everything jumps in value and prices you out’, while another perspective is ‘wait until there isn’t any competition in the market’.
Similarly, if you’re sitting on a 5% deposit, then the temptation to hold off of entering can be strong.
In fact, investors have <a href="/news">recently been blamed for first home buyer woes</a>, and SQM Research announced that<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finance/first-home-buyers-priced-out-of-the-market/2013092265179?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news" target="_blank"> first time buyers are already getting priced out</a> of the market.
All this comes at a time when markets are heating up.
 
{module Should first time buyers be holding off or jumping into the market now?}
 
 
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Should first time buyers purchase now?

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I was fortunate enough to attend the SQM seminar last week as Louis Christopher – one of the most well respected voices in the real estate industry for his balanced assessment of market data – presented a state by state rundown of projected activity over 2014.
<a target="_blank" href="#https://www.sqmresearch.com.au/capitalcitiesreports.php">Louis predicts</a> Sydney’s established housing market will see a 15-20% ‘rapid rise’ over the course of 2014, highlighting the middle suburbs in particular to capture the overflow of demand, as inner city development constraints force consumers outwards.  
There’s been plenty of talk regarding housing affordability and the very real risk associated with an unsustainable boom in values, with some claiming – based in part on our low interest rate environment – that any mention of a concern is a mere myth.  
When asked from an audience member at the seminar if first home buyers were being crowded out of Sydney, Louis concluded they were – and indeed it would be hard to deny.  
Investor activity has dominated the Australian property market over the last 12 months or so.  Banks are bidding for buyers in a highly competitive environment, and the lion’s share of mortgage demand is being eaten up between investors and upgraders.  
A third of all new loans are with loan to value ratios of more than 80%, and 40% are on interest only terms.  Clearly investors are speculating on a continued pattern of price gains from an already high plateau – an ambitious projection.  
Under the existing financial system, inevitably, it’s none other than rising debt that fuels accelerated growth.  However, <a target="_blank" href="#https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/charting-the-australian-first-home-buyer-retreat/">since March 2009</a>, whilst the average first homebuyer mortgage has increased by only 1.4%, the mortgage for the market as a whole has grown by 7.9%.  
Meanwhile, first home buyers have seen their savings eroded, and as the latest ABS housing finance data outlines, wishful thinking that rising yields are pushing greater numbers into the market, has had scant effect.  
According to research by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/">Rate City</a>, “first home buyers now account for just 11% of home loan commitments. This is below the 20 year average of 15% and has not been this low since 2004.” And whilst interest rates on their own can have little impact on price rises or falls in the near term – a long period of low rates and the dependency it invokes, can be dangerous in inelastic areas of limited supply.  
Current competition coupled with pent up demand, has done little more than push values further out of reach of a genuine entry buyer demographic.  And as complex as it may be to slowly unpick the current distortions that tie up the established market and hamper construction, the implications of not doing so, are potentially worst over the longer term.  
No one should be fooled by the rhetoric from various industry commentators concluding current inflationary gains are of no concern. Hence why we are seeing a conundrum in central banks across the globe employing "precautionary policy activism” in an attempt to cool asset inflation without hampering the broader economy by raising rates.  
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/new-zealand-rba-announces-restrictions-on-mortgage-lending-for-borrowers-with-less-than-a-20-deposit/2013082064388">In New Zealand in particular it’s a point of concern</a> and not just a localised issue. House prices currently sit at record highs, with the government property valuer ‘QV’ residential index showing gains of 8.5% in the 12-month period ending August 30.  
As reporter for real estate news on Sky Business 602, Iggy Damiani pointed out to me last week that Australian banks' ownership of New Zealand’s 'big four', place them in a precarious position - currently having the highest exposure to residential mortgages in the world. Therefore asset gains, which outpace both wage growth and inflation, must be addressed.  
Even assuming low rates are assisting first home buyers, saving a deposit and sourcing a suitably affordable property is no easy task for a demographic who are often burdened with a hangover of student debt, and, in many cases, can’t conceivably buy in until they partner with a second income earner.  
With this in mind, it must be pondered what the effect will be when rates do inevitably rise, considering our household debt to income ratio remains stubbornly high, at around 148%.  
Property to some extent connects together like a flowchart. Supply is fed in from the bottom to allow those upgrading (and then downsizing) a ready market to sell into in order to make the move.  
However, when investors predominantly negatively gear into the asset class most favoured by first home buyers – inevitably resulting in inflated established property values – and the state government fails to come to the party with feasible affordable alternatives, our property wheel of upgrading and downsizing risks stagnation.  
In the near term, heated investor activity may keep everyone dancing, however over the longer term we’re losing a valuable demographic of property buyer, which will no doubt have a flow-on effect across the property chain as a whole.  
As these changes push through the generation gap, it’s fair to assess, increasing numbers will retire whist still factoring as short-term renters.  
Investors tend to hold property for extended periods of time in order to build equity – many choose to invest as part of their self-managed super funds and subsequently do not sell until retirement. Therefore the ready supply, which usually comes from initial homebuyers selling and upgrading, will start to slow.  
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Additionally, we have the first world problem of an aging population creating future headwinds across the economy, with <a target="_blank" href="https://archive.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/pdf/IGR_2010.pdf">government intergenerational reports</a> forecasting the already reducing workforce participation rate, to drop to around 60% by 2050.  
Considering the predominant home buying activity takes place within the ages of 22-44, it seems reasonable to assume that there’ll eventually be proportionally greater demand from those downsizing as we progress through these buyer type changes.  
However, if the flow-on home buyer effect doesn’t follow through, the mismatch of household size comparable to property type will continue to stagnate our property buying and selling terrain, further tying down supply in the areas most want and need to reside – areas within easy commutable distance to city suburbs, jobs and essential amenities such as schools, hospitals, doctors, public transport systems and so forth.  
Therefore, the last thing we should be doing, is advocating the spruik that rising property prices are somehow good for the economy having a supposed flow on effect into retail spending, which in itself is currently not producing the desired result.  First home buyers may head out to purchase white goods and furniture for their new abode, but our investment sector certainly won’t.  
Additionally, choices are limited in a market that has been turned into a speculative terrain.  
If we were building homes that were viable for first home buyers to gain a foothold which would not only maintain consistent market demand in order to upgrade, but also provide feasible accommodation for this demographic to settle for an adequate period of time, then having an investor-dominated inner-city terrain could perhaps be balanced somewhat so as not to affect the stagnated flow of the home buyer chain.  
However, the new home options are either limited to outer-suburban estates lacking in infrastructure, which is an essential component needed at the start of each project if we’re to lure home buyers outwards, or alternatively, inner-city high-density low grade developments.  
Our census data already demonstrates that most lone person households are tottering around in accommodation that’s far too big for their requirements. Building an abundance of one-bedroom apartments therefore won’t suffice; only 14% of the total single person households of all ages opt for one-bedroom units.  We instead need a wider diversity of options, in particular, accommodation suited to families - with the decrease of ownership for this demographic showing a fall from 79.5% in 2006 to 77.2% in 2011.  
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/why-investor-activity-is-causing-our-property-markets-to-stagnate-catherine-cashmore/2013021759370">As I’ve mentioned previously</a>, the percentage of investor-owned apartments in both Darwin and Brisbane falls close to 70% – and in the other capitals, it comes in between 60 and 70%.  
And whilst this generation of existing investors may continue to enjoy short-term speculative gains of the oft quoted property cycle, since when did the future of the first home buyer market become ours to erode?  
I’ve assisted numerous first home buyers and renters over the past few years, and it’s no exaggeration many perceive the capital price of property and the risks associated with taking on a greater proportion of debt a potential liability. For those who argue based on textbook analysis that property is not over priced, I suggest they change their frame of reference. There may be historical logic behind the long-term growth in values, but this doesn’t change the consequence; it is both over priced and under supplied.  
Therefore, pressure on the rental market is unlikely to ease in the near to far future, with ABS data showing almost two-thirds of new residents from overseas are long-term property renters along with half new residents from within Australia who also class themselves within the same bracket.  
Furthermore, economic conditions such as wage growth, unemployment, consumer confidence and frequent changes of work placements all reduce the likelihood of a strengthening owner-occupier market over the next decade.  
Current policy is built around the general assumption that renting is a step on the road to ownership. However, unless the trend takes an about turn, tomorrow’s generation will hold a growing percentage of residents for which renting is for life, and as such, we also need to consider their welfare.  
Policy should be steered towards the creation of a fairer partnership between owner and renter.  This would include longer terms of tenancy, protection from exorbitant rent rises coupled with enforcement of basic standards of accommodation in both the private and public sector.  
As it stands, in the rental market, and the property buying/selling market short termism dominates.  No surprise, as we’re governed by those who derive personal and political benefit from the existing system, polling for the popular vote from home owners and investors; pinned to our flawed debt based financial system that relies on an ever inflating future to under-pin existing gains.  
 
<hr>
 Catherine Cashmore is a market analyst with extensive experience in all aspects relating to property acquisition.
 
     
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The future of the first home buyer should not be ours to erode: Catherine Cashmore

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Sceptical though I am about reading too much into short-term data, RP Data's Daily Home Value Index is always entertaining and is showing some strong indications of property price rises.
It's also worth noting that all property types within a city do not move in a harmonious manner as statistics at the macro level might seem to imply.
And in fact, Melbourne is perhaps a prime example of a city with property markets with deviating prospects (high rise inner-city stock and remote fringe suburbs may fare less well than quality dwellings in landlocked middle suburbs, for example).
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z8spfTDNuDc/UjpDVXEPL2I/AAAAAAAAKSY/swTy_a3uy0c/s1600/RPD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="text-decoration: none; color: #7f7f7f; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z8spfTDNuDc/UjpDVXEPL2I/AAAAAAAAKSY/swTy_a3uy0c/s400/RPD.jpg" width="400" style="border: 1px solid #ebebeb; position: relative; padding: 5px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"></a>
Source: RP Data
Dwelling prices in Melbourne are reported as being up by 6.87% quarter on quarter, with I find remarkable, although the gains year on year are notably less dramatic at 5.70%.
As for Sydney, it's equally remarkable to think that as recently as the first week of June commentators were talking about prices possibly being in a downtrend (they quite obviously weren't) due to an instantaneous negative consumer response to the budget.
Since June 9, Sydney's dwelling prices are also reported as being up by more than 7%, disproving the theory.
The numbers for the last quarter aren't really backing me up here, but my gut feeling is that Sydney has stronger fundamentals than Melbourne at this point in time.
What about elsewhere? There is talk of slowing jobs growth in Perth as the mining boom shifts away from construction and towards production. Prices remain up very strongly year on year, but gains seem to have slowed up.
There appear to be tentative signs of life in Brisbane and perhaps better days ahead for the sunshine state it would seem.
The only city where prices remain below where they were a year ago is Adelaide, although with interest rates looking to be locked at bargain basement levels for some time to come, moderate rises would surely be on the cards.
Whether or not the city can recapture its previous peaks of 2010 only time will tell.
<img alt="Dwelling Prices graph" src="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/5-6-household-sector/6bl-dwelpri-small.gif?accessed=2013-09-19-01-27-29" style="padding: 5px; border: 1px solid #ebebeb; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 
<hr>
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.
His new book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' was released on 1 September 2013.
 
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What's happening to Melbourne dwelling prices? Pete Wargent

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Last week, Louis Christopher from SQM Research declared the “Sydney though is turning into a beast unto itself. We have a strong conviction that the ABS will record 15% to 20% house price rises next year for that city. Such a rise will create a large dilemma for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), especially if the national economy is running below average growth.”

What a bold announcement given he left out what will actually influence this price proliferation. Even more remarkable is that Sydney consists of approximately 650 suburbs – so what a huge call!
This then prompted the dialogue to move to the words “boom and bubble.” Personally, I believe the word bubble is best left to describing champagne given the Sydney property market has been defying analysts for decades. Over the global financial crisis Mosman property prices fell up to 30% – smaller at the lower end and much greater at the top – end. So projected increases of 15 to 20% would realign the market back to where it was in 2007.
If you really want to look when Sydney had its last (what I call property boom) cast your mind back to 1988 – when the bubbles were really popping as Australia celebrated its bicentenary – in that case under the influence.
Prices rocketed by 75% to 100% which then led to the “recession we had to have”. When I look back to 1988 I can identify just five agents in Mosman who were selling back then of which Steve and I, nearly make up half. The cash rate back in 1988 varied from 13.50% to 15.00%. In 2004, we had another buoyant market with the cash rate remaining stable at 7.50% and again in 2007 where the cash rate bounced from 6.25% to 6.75%. One would not need to be a genius to see that with a cash rate of 2.50% eventually (despite ongoing conflicting global influences) we will see a stronger return back to bricks and mortar.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/18/economy/housing-bubble-you-bewdy">Alan Kohler wrote last week</a> “investing in property is a no-brainer at the moment. Prices have bottomed, auction clearance rates are on fire, especially in Sydney, and you can get a fixed rate of 4.8% with 100% gearing, 70% in your super fund.” The dominant players in the current market are definitely the investors with an insatiable diet for apartments.
<img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; max-width: 100%; display: block;" height="333" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2013/09/17-09-2013-12-55-56-PM.jpg" alt="17-09-2013 12-55-56 PM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8196">
This week marked the fifth anniversary of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/the-day-lehman-brothers-hit-the-canvas-and-stayed-down-20130913-2tqbg" title="The day Lehman Brothers hit the canvas and stayed down ">the day Lehman Brothers hit the canvas and stayed down </a>which destroyed the modern theory that banks can’t go broke.
Of greater influence <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/5-years-later-weve-learned-nothing-from-the-financial-crisis/279506/" title="5 Years Later, We’ve Learned Nothing From The Financial Crisis">five years later, we’ve learned nothing from the financial crisis</a> which then fuels speculation – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/why-the-financial-crisis-could-return-20130913-2tqbh" title="why the financial crisis could return.">why the financial crisis could return.</a>
When we look at what’s influencing the top-end of the Mosman market our RWM Research can reveal that over the last twelve months there have been twenty sales over $5 million. Of those twenty sales Chinese buyers have acquired 40% and growing.
Richardson &amp; Wrench Mosman (RWM) posted 7 of the 20 sales including the top three sales. The Chinese buyers purchased five properties in Beauty Point and three in Balmoral.
A strong week’s activity for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="sales in Mosman">sales in Mosman</a> with house volumes still down 33% on this time last year and apartments down 40%.
The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-deflates-talk-of-housing-bubble-20130918-2tzp7">RBA stepped into the ‘bubble and boom” debate</a> this week although it was also quick to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/rba-issues-warning-over-cheap-credit-20130917-2tx8e" title="RBA issues warning on cheap credit">issue a warning on cheap credit</a> and say that it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/reserve-worried-about-smsf-property-gearing-20130917-2twlg" title="Reserve worried about SMSF property gearing ">worried about SMSF property gearing </a>given investors are by far the biggest players in the current property run.
Just as interesting was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/economy/momentum_builds_for_home_loan_limits_0pOasL2qGiKlMIkr1B5OrL" title="momentum building for home loan limits ">momentum building for home loan limits </a>so it would be fair to say that this time around our regulators have their respective eyes – wide open.
What I would add is that the vast majority who keep pushing the “bubble and boom” are more than likely under the influence.

<hr>
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="font-size: 14px;">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The only talk of property bubbles should be about popping champagne: Robert Simeon

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Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, is the largest municipality in Australia.  There are 1,110,473 people that live in Brisbane, comprising just fewer than 5% of Australia’s population.  The second largest council, which is also in the south-east corner of Queensland, is the Gold Coast where the population is less than half that of Brisbane’s at 526,173 persons. 
In fact, four of the top five council regions (including the entirety of the ACT) are located in south-east Queensland; the other two are Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast.  These four council regions alone account for slightly more than 10% of the national population.
Not only is the Brisbane City Council region large in both area and population, it is growing rapidly.  Over the past 10 years the area has increased in population by about 20,200 persons each year or nearly 1,700 new residents every month.
There are some benefits of having a large council.  The taxation base is larger providing some economy of scale and the urban planning and approval process tends to be much more streamlined.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2354" alt="Largest LGAs" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Largest-LGAs.jpg" width="470" height="160" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The fastest growing council regions:
Six out of the top ten fastest growing council regions around the country are located across Western Australia and four of them are in the Perth metro area.  The Perth Council has recorded a population growth rate of 125% over the ten years to June 2012 to reach a population of roughly 19,000 residents.  The population growth rate across the Perth council area remains high at 3.7% over the 2011/12 financial year, however, councils like Serpentine-Jarrahdale (+8.1%), Kwinana (+6.6%), Armidale (+5.9%) and Wanneroo (+5.6%) have been outpacing Perth over the most recent 2011/12 period.
Rapid population growth provides both positive and negative factors for local governments.  The positive is that population growth is stimulatory – more people means a larger tax base and more demand for housing which provides a multiplier effect on the local economy as higher demand for housing translates to more employment, building materials, white goods, home furnishings etc.
The challenge with rapid population growth is to ensure infrastructure and local amenity keeps pace with the population.  More people means more traffic, a greater requirement for public transport, health care, schooling, retail facilities etc.  Delivering on infrastructure is expensive and is the area where many governments simply fail to deliver.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2355" alt="Fastest growing LGAS" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Fastest-growing-LGAS.jpg" width="470" height="174" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The fastest shrinking council regions:
The regions where population growth is in significant decline can broadly be described as regional areas often associated with agriculture.  Five of the top 10 regions where the population is shrinking the most rapidly are located across Western Australia’s wheat belt.  Camamah (-30.1%), Dalwallinu (-27.8%), Mukinbudin (-27.7%) and Wyalkatchem (-20.6%) are seeing their population dropping from an already low level.
The trend towards smaller populations across these rural areas is nothing new and is likely to continue as the average population of these areas grows older and younger cohorts move away.  A declining population creates other issues including a lack of social diversity. 
The challenge for many of these areas is to continue providing infrastructure and services across a lower taxation base.  These regions are extremely large in area which compounds the costs involved in servicing the sparse population.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2356" alt="Largest declines in population" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Largest-declines-in-population.jpg" width="470" height="157" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The councils with the highest population densities:
Nine of the 10 most densely populated council regions are located within the Sydney metro area.  The most densely populated council is Waverley where there are just over 7,500 residents per square kilometre.  The council includes popular suburbs such as Bondi, Tamarama, Dover Heights, Bronte and the Waverley.  About 80% of Waverly dwellings are units or semi-attached.
The regions with the highest population density tend to be located very close to the central business districts of each capital city and are of course synonymous with fewer detached homes, more apartments and town houses, efficient public transport systems and wide range of facilities and social options close by.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2357" alt="highest density LGAs" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/highest-density-LGAs.jpg" width="470" height="165" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
 
<hr>
 Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at RP Data.
 
 
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