ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Ballarat, Victoria’s largest inland city, figures in various positions from rising market to starting to decline in the HTW property clocks for February and March, and like the rest of the Australian economy, the residential market there will not be without its challenges in 2016.
Valuation firm Herron Todd White’s property clock is a simple broad brush means to suggest where property markets are as at February 2016 and what direction prices are moving in.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%209.42.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%209.42.52%20AM.png" alt="">
Macro economic factors such as the success of Australia’s transition from a resource driven to a service-driven economy, the mood of the various regulatory bodies and the ability of the elected elite to remain united behind one leader will play a major hand in its fortune, says the report.
Locally, the direction and pace with which the market door will swing will depend on the continued state governmental inclination to decentralise Victoria, in addition to the continued popularity and population growth of the area and the local economy’s success. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%209.43.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-15%20at%209.43.05%20AM.png" alt="">
The good news for the area is that none of these drivers appear at present poised to pull the plug on the place. 
The bad news is, nor do they elicit an inclination to provide us with a path to the promised land, says HTW.
“And so the great unwashed are left to wake up, frock up and front up. The fundamentals of the residential market are sound if not strong, yet only the most bullish would foretell a 2016 Ballarat boom. So how will it play out? 
“The year will play out as tug of war between positive local sentiment and what will be on balance, at best, a macro economic climate,” says HTW. 
As usual, the property with the greatest chance to grow will be that with limited supply close to the CBD such as Ballarat Central, Lake Wendouree, Soldiers Hill, Black Hill and Golden Point. Areas with significant challenges will be those with oversupply issues such as the new estates in Delacombe and Lucas.
The strong history of Ballarat provides a sought after niche with period housing, particularly Victorian dwellings circa 1900. Areas likely to prosper from this niche market are Golden Point, Black Hill and Ballarat East. Period homes in these areas provide a stable investment outlook with driving factors that include affordability and proximity to the CBD, transport and sporting facilities as well as limited supply compared to the new estates on the city fringes with modern housing facing no limit in supply. These suburbs provide an inexpensive option for good quality period homes, close to the city centre and ripe for gentrification. Well-renovated period homes fetch a premium within the Ballarat residential market.
There is strong evidence of gentrification in Soldiers Hill with property quality and prices continually improving. With good quality renovations and the location of these suburbs, rising property values are likely in the future.
On the outer edges of Ballarat, Buninyong presents an opportunity with good local facilities and close proximity to Ballarat. Buninyong provides heritage properties with a rural township atmosphere and is becoming a sought after location because of these factors. 
At present, Ballarat has seen little development of reclaimed spaces, such as factory conversions, due to a limited demand for apartment living in regional areas. It is unlikely the apartment market in conversions of this type would have high demand in the foreseeable future, however, smaller scale buildings such as churches provide more of a lower density lifestyle choice for Ballarat.
The median price for houses in Ballarat at the end of 2015 was $308,750, according to CoreLogic RP Data. There was not data for units in the city.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/03/15/ballarat2.jpg" alt=""> 
As an example of properties sold around the median, a four-bedroom house at <a href="https://realestateview.com.au/real-estate/8-leroy-street-ballarat-vic/property-details-sold-residential-8743834" target="_blank">8 Leroy Street</a> (above) was sold for $335,000 in Ballarat, as per realestateview.com.au. 
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Ballarat's tug of war between local positive sentiment and macro-climate: HTW

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The One Agency Real Estate group, which helps agents set up their own agency for a fee without the traditional franchise model, is targeting 160 offices by end-June, placing it within the top 10 networks in Australia.
It has more than 120 offices across Australia and New Zealand since opening its doors in 2008, with another 20+ businesses scheduled to open their doors before the end of March.
Founder &amp; CEO Paul Davies launched the business model after more than 30 years as a real estate business owner, across both franchise and independent agencies.
“In the real estate industry it’s almost impossible, as an independent agency, to compete with the big franchises in your local marketplace,” said Davies. “But buying into an established franchise is both constraining and costly, so I set out to create a model that helped business owners to keep as much of their profit in their own back pocket and one that allows them to choose how they operate and grow.”
Members of the group have the flexibility to promote their brand with less restrictions than a traditional franchise. 
“The modern world of real estate is forever evolving and One Agency is at the forefront of that evolution which is why I chose to join the group,” says Grant Baker, from One Agency Noosa in QLD, member since 2013. “The business model is perfectly geared towards the self-motivated agent wanting to achieve personal success and retain all the profits of their labour.”
“The whole process, including the initial discussions, the changeover and the ongoing support, reinforces our thoughts that One Agency is the place to be,” says Stephen Johnston, ex-major franchisee, now an owner of One Agency Dunedin in NZ.
“I had a 23 year association with LJ Hooker brand and in April 2014 we made the leap to join One Agency after careful consideration and research into the One Agency Brand. We have saved a lot of money in franchise fees and have the ability to do business in a more flexible manner, no fees on the rent-roll is a great bonus,” says Andrew Johns, the owner of One Agency South. “The transition has been great and the support from the team at One Agency operations team has been efficient, friendly and impressive.”
“When we were setting up in business, we were approached by some big name franchises and the set up costs were horrific,” says Michael Lister from One Agency The Forest in the Sydney suburb of Frenchs Forest, operating since 2010. “We figured ‘why are we going to work so hard for somebody else’s benefit?’ and so we decided to go with the One Agency model which suited us much better and allowed us to steer our own ship.”
According to a recent REB Employer of Choice Report, 65.4 per cent of respondents identified culture as their main motivation for joining their current network or company.
“We attract very motivated agents, some are new to business ownership and others who are already experienced and bring their established franchise agency to us, often because the costs of a traditional franchise suck up their profits. Our members are also able to react far more autonomously and make changes to suit their business in a far more nimble way, without having to jump through the restrictive hoops that a traditional franchise demands.”
Davies says One Agency is growing organically, and not through acquisitions. 
“We don’t use our cheque book to buy members, like some franchises do, and have no financial interest or partnerships with any of our members businesses. They pay us a one off membership fee and then a low monthly fee, regardless of their commission and in return we offer great branding, marketing tools, systems and a supportive culture.”
Despite such rapid growth, the group retains a boutique feel, yet offers the strength of an international brand, he says. 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

One Agency targets 160 franchises by end-June through its new business model

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The NSW government will legislation to exempt large commercial property managers, such as Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres, from holding real estate licenses. 
After 15 years debate, the NSW government decided that requirement is little more than red tape.
The government will amend the Property, Stock and Business Agents Act in coming months. 
"These changes are long overdue and form part of the NSW government's real estate reform agenda," Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation, Victor Dominello said. 
"Training for training's sake is a drain on productivity. We must be always be vigilant to ensure that mandatory CPD is fit for purpose."
The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal's 2015 Reforming Licensing in NSW report recommends that large commercial property managers who manage an estimated property value of at least $40 million, or a gross floor area of at least 20,000 square metres, or are managing properties for a related corporate entity should be exempt. 
The Department of Fair Trading rarely receives complaints from large commercial property owners such as Westfield or Stockland about their managers who adhere to legally enforceable commercial contracts, but the cost to managers to obtain licenses is $4 million a year, the Australian Financial Review noted.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Commercial property managers to be exempt from holding real estate licences in NSW

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This week 1,426 auctions were held across the combined capital cities, substantially lower than the 2,304 held last week and the 2,556 held one year ago.
This coming Monday is a public holiday for four out of the eight states and territories, which has been a key factor in the fall in auction volumes. The combined capital city clearance rate softened this week, down from 68.6 percent last week to 66.4 percent this week.
The two largest auction markets, Melbourne and Sydney, saw their preliminary clearance remain above the 70 percent mark, with Sydney at 72 percent and Melbourne at 70.5 percent, while the highest clearance rate was in Canberra where 75 percent of auctions cleared over the weekend. 
The capital city weighted average was pulled lower by softer clearance rates in Brisbane (44 percent), Perth (46.7 percent) and Tasmania (33.3 percent). One year ago, the weighted average clearance rate was 77.2 percent, substantially stronger than the current result.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Capital-city.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Capital-city.png" alt="">
Only 414 Melbourne auctions were held this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 70.5 percent. This week’s result shows a slight decrease in the clearance rate for the city, after final results saw Melbourne’s clearance rate at 72.1 percent last week. Over the corresponding week last year, Melbourne’s clearance rate was 78.0 percent across 1,269 auctions. Although the city’s auction activity was quieter this week, there were still sub-regions where auction volumes were relatively high, with Melbourne’s Inner region host to 74 auctions and the West region host to 56 auctions. In terms of clearance rate, North West was the best performer, with 80.6 percent of reported auctions successful this week, followed by Inner South (79.2 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Melbourne.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Melbourne.png" alt="">
Sydney was the busiest capital city auction market this week, with 680 auctions held and a preliminary clearance rate of 72.0 percent. On the final numbers for last week, 68.7 percent of Sydney auctions were successful, while one year ago the clearance rate was 83.9 percent, significantly stronger than the current results for the city. The number of homes taken to auction this year is also lower than last year when 926 auctions were held. Sydney’s strongest performing sub-regions this week were Ryde (86.2per cent), Eastern Suburbs (84.5 percent) and Inner West (78.6 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Sydney.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Sydney.png" alt="">
This week 44.0 percent of Brisbane auctions were successful based on preliminary results. There were 151 auctions held in the city, up from 133 last week and 132 at the same time last year. Last week Brisbane’s clearance rate was 50.9 percent, while one year ago it was 47.0 percent. Further south, on the Gold Coast 34 auctions were held this week. Preliminary results show 16 auction outcomes having been reported with a clearance rate of 50.0 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Brisbane-1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Brisbane-1.png" alt=""> 
Adelaide’s preliminary results show 54.2 percent of auctions were successful this week, compared to 65.9 per cent last week and 66.7 percent one year ago. The number of auctions across the city fell to 93 this week, compared to 99 over the previous week.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Adelaide.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/20160314-Adelaide.png" alt="">
There were 35 Perth auctions held this week. Perth’s clearance rate shows a higher level of volatility due to the small proportion of homes being sold via the auction method.  Over the year to date, Perth’s clearance rate has been recorded as low as 21.7 percent the week before last and as high as 46.7 percent this week, across just 15 results. Prior to this week, the highest result for the city was recorded over the final week of January when  44 percent of the 25 reported auctions were successful.
Canberra has recorded another strong result this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 75.0 percent. The number of homes auctioned across the city this week was significantly lower than last week, falling from 88 to 34. At the same time last year 68.8 percent of the 71 auctions were sold.
There were 12 Tasmanian auction results reported this week and based on these preliminary results, 4 have sold.
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Preliminary clearance rate remains below 70 percent for the second week in a row: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<div>
Pouf! In case it wasn't obvious, that was the sound of the mining construction boom vanishing into a cloud of coal dust. Let's take a run through recent Lending Finance figures to see what we can learn.</div>
<div>
 Total lending softens again 
</div>
<div>The data for January showed that total lending has pulled back a little from record highs in trend terms. The seasonally adjusted lending finance result in September 2015 had been the highest in 7.5 years, but January saw another weaker month of lending recorded, in part due to the dampening of property investor loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms total lending was down by -2.9 per cent from December, with the trend inching down over the past four months from a high of $72.9 billion to $71.3 billion. In trend terms total lending is now only +2.1 per cent higher than one year ago, and appears to be softening.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>One of the key narratives over the past six months or so has been that while property investor loans have been stymied, owner-occupier lending has by and large ramped up to take its place. Indeed this has happened to the extent that APRA is now beginning to sense that some of these loan reclassifications might just be a bit fishy. Owner-occupier commitments pulled back a bit in January, although major renovation activity is now increasing at last. <div>Yet overall trend owner-occupier housing commitments of $21.6 billion are an exceptionally strong +18.8 per cent higher than one year ago. </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Business lending pulled back by a seasonally adjusted -2.5 per cent in January, reflected by the commercial finance trend in the chart below, the softer figures in part reflecting a huge year-on-year decline in commercial loans to the mining sector, although agriculture finance has been rising solidly since 2013. Lease finance, which represents only a small part of total lending finance, increased by 3.7 per cent in January. Here's the summary chart, presented in trend terms:</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
Industry &amp; state trends Looking at commercial fixed loans by industry shows that with a couple of mega projects now dropping off the annualised data, commercial financing to the mining sector has shrunk by more than a quarter. Fortunately for the economy at the national level, mining represents only a relatively small part of the total and a number of other industries have helped to pick up the slack, although this is unlikely to be much compensation for the struggling regions. At the state level, Victoria (+13 per cent), Queensland (+11 per cent), and New South Wales (+8 per cent) have all enjoyed a solid uplift in commercial finance over the last year in rolling annual terms, but the other resources states of Western Australia and the Northern Territory have seen activity decline.
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Investor lending stymied</div>
<div>
 As noted above, property investor lending has been dampened, to be replaced by a rise in home loan activity. 
</div>
<div>Nowhere has this been more so in evidence than in Sydney where home loan commitments have exploded higher, mirroring a corresponding decline in investor loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The property investor loans figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so are presented below on a rolling annual basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the best performing states for property investment loans have been Queensland, Tasmania, and South Australia, not least because these states did not experience the great boom that New South Wales and Victoria did.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand investor activity in the Northern Territory continues to plummet back to monthly volumes last seen five years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual total of property investor loans in the "Top End" has declined by 29.4 per cent in the past year alone, to now be down by 33.9 per cent from the September 2014 peak.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/14/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/14/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
There is a significant dwelling price correction in the post for Darwin, with rents also having fallen sharply. The wrap <div>Overall, January proved to be a softer month for lending, as might have been expected following on from Wednesday's housing finance data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures present further evidence of the conspicuous and precipitous decline in mining construction. Total lending finance has eased over the past few months, although the headline figure remains strong enough in historical terms.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Piff, Paff, Pouf the mining construction boom vanishes: Pete Wargent

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The financial media had an arousing day extrapolating the January Housing Finance figures.
Although I didn't have time to read all of the articles, the headlines variously describing these data as confirming a housing downturn, a fall, a cooling, a sinking, and for reasons that weren't entirely clear, even "home loans dropping at their fastest rate in 7 years"!
In actual fact, home loan activity hit its highest level in 7 years last month, while the investor sector has slowed.
Whatevs, it's fairly typical for total dwelling finance to decline by 20 to 30 percent in January as Aussies focus on the beach or their Christmas turkey, so there is obviously a fair bit of reliance on how accurate or otherwise the seasonal adjustments prove to be.
Such data series tend to jump around a bit from month to month, so the important thing to do is follow the trend, and to observe the data in conjunction with other metrics.
The US nonfarm payroll figures represent a fine case in point, with a decline in average earnings of 3 cents in February variously intimated to be one of the biggest falls since Niagara, despite the fact that earnings had increased by 12 cents only in January.
Back to the housing figures, the original data showed total dwelling finance of $25 billion, which was only slightly higher than the total for the preceding January, underscoring the dampening of investor activity.
That said, the chart of original data below may simply be mimicking what happened to CoreLogic-RP Data's mortgage index, which observed platform events declining sharply for the same period before recovering strongly in more recent weeks.
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5lbDdHSvarE/Vt_gJZwpUTI/AAAAAAAAbv8/XWUp4pI-wZs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="344"> The most obvious explanation for the pullback is that the crackdown on investor finance has run interference on the pace of lending to that sector, as lenders continue to apply more rigorous criteria. Certainly I've come across numerous examples of stymied demand relating to would-be investors who are needing to try several avenues in order to secure finance, and many are having to wait to secure loans (for example, needing time to save larger deposits, or to prove higher levels of serviceability). With interest rate settings as low as they are, there is evidently an enormous pent up demand for investment loans, but APRA has quite sensibly decided not to let the investor sector get any further ahead of itself. There is litte such weakness to be found in the owner-occupier lending sector, with the value of commitments in January well up on last year, and some +42.3 percent higher than the equivalent figure for January 2012. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cclSLOcaxcY/Vt_gJV7wfrI/AAAAAAAAbv4/sov-6_hRf8Q/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356"></div>
 There has been a high volume of refinancing in recent weeks, which muddies the macro picture somewhat. Construction boom set to peak The residential construction boom and its associated multiplier effect still has legs, but in reality the industry is already going like the clappers in Sydney and some other cities, to the extent that labour costs have spiked to reflect an industry operating at close to its full capacity. This dynamic cannot continue in perpetuity - nor should it - and the downturn in the residential construction sector will likely begin to reveal itself at some point later in the calendar year. While the data charted below are only indicative rather than definitive, they do appear to support the notion of an imminent peak. <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-L8_4S3F8M0E/Vt_gLG6bmyI/AAAAAAAAbwI/j2F3V_q7ICU/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="348"> Similarly the number of new dwellings financed is tracking at a historically high level, but also looks peaky. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BLyGNP_wCq0/Vt_gKf8ZhKI/AAAAAAAAbwA/Mb0ctNU9yT4/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
 First timers &amp; renovations First homebuyers accounted for only an estimated 15.1 percent of dwellings financed in January which is below the long run average, though the Australian Bureau of Statistics does note that this figure is only an estimate since some lenders are not yet reporting correctly. Although conventional wisdom is that first homebuyers are inactive being priced out of the market, comprehensive surveys carried out by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) have shown that many are opting to get onto the housing ladder as investors, as those of us active in the market are only too aware. Actual first time buyer purchases have been tracking at around 13,000 per month in line with the long run average, with DFA surveys finding that many are using the "bank of Mum and Dad" (and some fortunate souls are buying for cash, thereby escaping being captured by the housing finance data entirely). <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U-3JNA5yqVM/Vt_gKGkaAwI/AAAAAAAAbwE/b2EM0peyfWA/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366"> Finally, it has taken a heck of a long time to get things moving but major renovations activity is at last picking up as households enjoy the wealth effect of cheaper mortgage repayments and rising dwelling prices. <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-28gyyeZ7js8/Vt_gJZoxSLI/AAAAAAAAbv0/O-qKsnqK880/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352"> Sydney clearly leads the way in terms of renovation activity as one would expect. Outstanding research once gain by CoreLogic-RP Data featured on yesterday's national news showed that 18 of the top 20 suburbs with the highest percentage of home equity are unsurprisingly located in Sydney. The other two are in Melbourne. The 20 suburbs and towns with the most depressed levels of home equity read like a list of yesterday's regional property hotspots, including but not limited to: Moranbah, Gladstone, Mackay, Whitsundays, Bundaberg, Mount Isa, Rockhampton, Whyalla, Greater Geraldton, and Muswellbrook. Just as in regional New Zealand, the commodities crash has hit much of regional Australia hard. Interestingly, we are presently in the midst of a commodity price mini-boom with oil prices rebounding and iron ore futures again hitting "limit up" during today's trade to hit their highest level since July 2015. While this is potentially a welcome windfall for the budget, don't be headfaked by it - the resources construction collapse still has a long, long way to run, and the deleterious impacts will be felt across many regions for years to come. The wrap Overall, it would be premature extrapolation to read too much in the January figures, even though the trend certainly points towards a considerably lower level of investor activity in 2016 than was the case at the mid-2015 peak. As always, it also pays to recognise that there is one singular "housing market", since some markets are performing very strongly, helping to offset the poor perfomance in many resources regions. News of a downturn would certainly be news to residents of Kingsford in Sydney, where an unrenovated dump on a 499.5 square metre plot sold for a an outrageous $3,065,000 on Saturday (this was more than $1 million over the reserve price, and note the price guide!), having previously fetched $1,015,000 back in March 2008, when many commentators were predicting a price correction. Surry Hills, an inner Sydney suburb with a vacancy rate of just 1.1 per cent, has recorded a series of sprightly results, and doubtless there are plenty of other examples in the inner suburbs of Sydney. House prices in Brisbane are also rising, as I noted yesterday.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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Were the January housing figures really that bad? Pete Wargent

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Homes in the Sydney suburbs of Hunters Hill, Canada Bay and Ku-ring-gai are the top council areas with the most valuable real estate assets, according to a new report by Aussie Home Loans and CoreLogic RP Data.
The report found homes in Hunters Hill have an average equity level of 72.3 percent or $878,481, then Canada Bay at 70.2 percent and Ku-ring-gai with 69.2 percent.
Mortgaged homes across NSW have an average of 56.6 percent equity or $358,763.
Aussie executive chairman John Symond said the data confirms that NSW property has been a great wealth creator for owners, compared with other asset classes and property in other states across Australia.
“I believe the best investment both for security and lifestyle is still real estate and I see no reason why this will change over the next decade, especially in view of the lower interest rate climate, lack of housing supply and continuing population growth”, said.
"Fast growing Sydney council areas dominate the survey as property prices have risen at a compounding rate of 8.3 per cent over the last 20 years. 
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.47.59%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.47.59%20PM.png" alt="">
Councils in the Upper Hunter Valley had the lowest average home equity within New South Wales, especially Muswellbrook and Singleton.
CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said Sydney is leading the state in home values as the population grows in the city, while many regional centres are facing neutral or falling population levels.
“The figures show that areas close to Sydney’s CBD have generally performed better as the population becomes more compressed with more medium to high density dwellings”, he said.
Average level of home equity – state by state percentages and dollar values
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.45.19%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.45.19%20PM.png" alt="">
Download the free <a href="https://www.aussie.com.au/home-loans/property-reports/home-equity" target="_blank">Aussie/CoreLogic Housing Equity Report here</a> or visit aussie.com.au. 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Sydney's Hunter's Hill, Canada Bay lead councils with most valuable real estate

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Let’s assume for a moment that the people raging about the alleged affordability crisis actually care about the issue and want to see solutions.
I say that because much of it is grandstanding by attention-seekers who really don’t give a damn.
The problem they face is that they’re never going to find a remedy, one that actually works, until they identify the real problems. 
So far the debate, for want of a better word, has focused on fighting phantoms. Everyone, it seems, has their pet theories about who’s to blame and is filling up the airways with angry demands that the culprits be dealt with. 
The problem is, no one can agree on who the villains really are.
Recently we had former federal minister and previous NSW premier, Bob Carr, stridently declaring that rising prices were all caused by migrants flooding into Australia. Apparently these people have more money than sense and rampage around our major cities paying way too much for houses, thereby pushing prices beyond the reach of our kiddies.
But the current Federal Government, after two long and expensive parliamentary inquiries into the affordability smokescreen, somehow came to the belief that it was all caused by foreign investors buying mansions when they’re supposed to be buying new dwellings. With appropriate sabre-rattling, the feds declared they were going to clamp down on the dastardly aliens, thereby creating a level playing field, thereby making homes cheaper for our kiddies, therefore affordability fixed. 
So they jolly well forced a handful of foreign buyers to sell back their mansions. There you go, problem solved. Houses cheaper right across Australia. 
Meanwhile, federal Labor has popped up and postulated that it’s not the fault of overseas migrants, despite one of their own declaring that it was, nor the fault of foreign investors breaking the rules. Labor has mandated that it’s the fault of our home-grown investors – not all of them mind you, just the ones who claim negative gearing tax benefits.
So Labor claims it can fix the (Sydney) affordability problem by removing the right to claim negative gearing tax benefits, except for new properties.
There are a few others, including a couple of obscure university activists who published a paper recently, who adhere to the theology that declares negative gearing the source of all evil in real estate, notwithstanding the laughable illogic of their arguments. 
Labor is also part of the camp, which is also populated by economists, that believes it’s the so-called capital gains concession that drives investors beyond reason to paying silly prices for things. 
But there’s yet another school of thought out there, often put forward by economists who think they know more about real estate than they actually do. They claim that it’s grants and stamp duty concessions given to first-home buyers that have forced up house prices, by empowering youngsters who would not otherwise be competing in the market. One sub-theory is that the price of houses rises by the amount of the government grant. 
So take your pick. According to various schools of thought, all of them expounded vehemently by zealots totally convinced of their validity, the villains who force up house prices are:- 
(1)  migrants,
(2)  foreign investors,
(3)  negatively-geared Australian investors,
(4)  all investors who benefit from the CGT concession, or
(5)  first-time buyers bolstered by government grants and stamp duty concessions. 
So who’s right? The answer, sadly, is: none of them! They’re all wrong!
And this is why there will never be any realistic solution to the alleged affordability crisis. Everyone who appears to care is out there chasing phantom targets.
You can’t devise a cure if you’ve mis-diagnosed the illness. 
The buying sector most responsible for prices rising over time is never mentioned in the “debate”. This buying sector is the biggest influence of housing markets because they’re the biggest in number - and they have both the financial capacity and the motivation to pay high prices to secure the homes they want.
They’re home-buyers other than first-time buyers – the next-time buyers. People relocating, upgrading, moving onward and upward. People who have owned homes for years and are seeking to move to bigger and better ones, armed with a strong financial position. 
The problem for those all worked up about affordability (which, essentially, is a Sydney issue, not a national one) is that it’s very hard to nobble them. They don’t receive government grants, they don’t claim negative gearing and they don’t pay CGT so they can’t benefit from the so-called concession. 
To show you what I mean, let’s examine some statistics about market share, as revealed by the NAB quarterly surveys.
Foreign investors, an easy target for politicians wanting to blame an unpopular minority with no political cost, are about 8 percent of buyers of established property.
Australian investors comprise 28 percent of buyers and first-time home buyers are 20 percent. 
The remainder of the market, around 43 percent of it, are those people who never get discussed in the “why prices rise” debate, the next-time buyers.
Given that foreign investors are only 8 percent of the market, it’s unreasonable to blame them for prices rising. You might well ask: what about the other 92 percent?
ATO data shows that a lot of Australian investors don’t claim negative-gearing tax deductions, as many own properties where the rent covers all costs. I am one of them.
My estimate is that about 15 percent of the market comprises negatively-geared Australian investors. According to Labor leader Bill Shorten, in his announcement of his tax policy, those 15 percent are solely responsible for all price rises over the past 30 years. If he truly believes that, he’s an idiot. Again you might well ask: but what about the other 85 percent? 
It’s not just about numbers of people in the market. It’s also about financial capacity and motivation. 
First-home buyers, with or without state government grants (only available now on new properties), are relatively few in number and are constrained by their tight budgets. They don’t pay silly prices for homes. 
Investors are a little more numerous but are still very much in the minority. And they are highly motivated to buy at the lowest possible prices. For investors, it’s all about the numbers, not about falling in love with a single property they just have to have. If they can’t get it at a price that stacks up as an investment, most will walk away – because there are a hundred others just around the corner. 
That leaves that anonymous bunch of people we call the next-time buyers. They’re remarkable for their ability to fly under the radar of media debate. No one ever talks about them. But they’re the most influential part of the market, by a wide margin. 
They’re not half the buying market, but they’re close to it. Because they’ve owned property for a while and built up equity, they’re financially strong. And they’re aspirational, so they’re highly motivated and will often pay whatever it takes (within reason, mostly) to secure that one property they must have.
They’re the sneaky bastards who force prices to rise. And there’s almost nothing politicians can do to stop them.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Housing affordability debate focused on fighting phantoms: Terry Ryder

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At the end of 2015, the median price of vacant land across the combined capital cities was recorded at $265,000 while the median land price across the combined regional markets was $156,000. 
A $109,000 (69.9%) price difference between regional and capital city prices is now the largest differential on record for both.
It also goes some way to explaining the differences in the cost of built form (houses or units) in the capital cities relative to non-capital city areas. Over the past year, capital city vacant land prices have increased by 4.0% compared to a -5.2% fall in prices in regional areas.
At the end of 2015, the median lot size for capital city vacant land was 466 sqm having increased by 3.6% over the year. Across regional markets the median land size was a much larger 809 sqm having increased by 8.3% over the past year. 
Land sizes have fallen over time in capital city and regional markets however, lot size compression has been much greater in capital cities. To put this in perspective, median lot sizes have fallen at a rate of - 2.5% annually in capital cities over the past decade compared to falls of -0.5% per annum in regional markets. 
Across the combined capital cities the median rate/sqm for vacant land was recorded at $552 at the end of last year. At the same time the rate was a substantially lower $179/sqm in regional markets. Capital city rates/sqm has fallen by -2.5% over the past year while in regional markets they are -12.4% lower.
The fall in capital city rates/sqm is due to the increase in land sizes while in regional markets it is due to both prices falling and land sizes increasing over the past year.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.41.40%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.41.40%20PM.png" alt="">
As can be seen in the tables outlining the key vacant land statistics across each of the state capital cities, Sydney’s median land price ($410,000) is substantially higher than the other capital cities. Compared with the second most expensive city, Perth, at $299,000, Sydney’s median land price is more than $100,000 higher. The two cities which have seen the highest rates of housing value growth in recent years, Sydney and Melbourne, have also recorded an exceptional increase in median land prices over the past year at 20.2% and 23.5% respectively. Although Sydney is the most expensive on a rate per square metre basis, vacant land in Perth is the nation’s most expensive by virtue of the fact that only Adelaide has smaller lot sizes. 
Today’s data provides valuable insights into the reasons why housing costs in the capital cities is so high. In a market like Sydney for example, if the typical land costs $410,000 it is difficult to imagine being able to buy the land and build a home for less than $550,000. 
With housing affordability now back on the national political agenda it is likely we will see renewed focus on the high cost of developable land in our capital cities. Reforms to reduce the cost of the vacant land would go a long way to improving housing affordability, particularly for new homes. Of course the other alternative is to encourage greater economic development of regional areas where the cost of housing is significantly lower than it is in the capital cities.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.43.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.43.35%20PM.png" alt="">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Land prices on the increase: Cameron Kusher

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Retail investment hit $8.4 billion in 2015 across all retail sub-sectors, according to JLL's Australian Shopping Centre Investment Review &amp; Outlook with sub-regional shopping centres being the standout market.
Offshore investors purchased the highest level of retail assets in Australia on record and are expected to lead the buying demand again in 2016, according to JLL’s head of retail investments Australasia, Simon Rooney, who added the record level of offshore investment in 2015 at $2.4 billion is a clear indication that Australian retail property remains attractive in a global context due to the stability of returns and transaction scale.
“2015 was another record year for the retail investment market and yields reached new benchmarks for core assets. Owners were cognisant of the significant volume of primarily-offshore capital that is seeking transaction scale in highly transparent and low-volatility markets, while also taking advantage of the weaker AUD and historically low debt costs," he said. 
“We expect transaction activity to remain elevated in 2016 as a result of pent-up demand for assets, primarily from passive sources of capital, and vendors that are motivated to sell non-core assets and mature, stable assets that have limited opportunity to add value.
“The record level of offshore investment in 2015 at $2.4 billion is a clear indication that Australian retail property remains attractive in a global context due to the stability of returns and transaction scale." 
<a href="/images/2016/03/9/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-09%20at%202.20.21%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/9/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-09%20at%202.20.21%20PM.png" alt="">
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