<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Joel Robinson

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Breaking into the Sydney property market has long felt out of reach for many first home buyers, particularly as median house prices sit above $1.6 million and unit prices push beyond $900,000.</p>

<p>But entry points still exist in pockets of Greater Western Sydney, where pricing, government incentives, and product mix are aligning to make ownership more attainable.</p>

<p>Understanding where those opportunities sit, and how the numbers actually stack up, is becoming increasingly important for buyers weighing up their next move.</p>

<h2>Work out what you can actually afford</h2>

<p>Sydney is expensive, but it isn’t uniformly expensive. The Greater Parramatta region continues to offer comparatively accessible entry points, particularly for buyers open to alternative configurations like studios.</p>

<p>There's an assumption that a first home needs to be a certain size, that anything smaller than a one-bedder is a concession rather than a choice. That assumption doesn't hold up against what well-designed studios in the right location actually offer: immediate liveability, strong urban amenity, and a price point that makes the deposit target realistic rather than theoretical.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/mason-main-merrylands-249-259-merrylands-road-merrylands-nsw-2160">Mason &amp; Main</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>'s multi-award winning precinct in Merrylands, studio apartments are unlike the typical studio configuration.</p>

<p>Starting from $498,000, the bedroom is fully enclosed, separated from the living area by a cavity sliding door, creating a genuinely private sleeping space that functions more like a one-bedroom apartment than a traditional open-plan studio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359814]</p>

<p>At 42 sqm internally, with an open-plan kitchen, built-in robes, modern bathroom, and separate laundry, the apartments are designed for everyday liveability rather than short-term use.</p>

<p>With a five per cent deposit under the Federal Government's First Home Guarantee, that equates to a deposit of around $24,200, achievable for many first home buyers without the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance.</p>

<h2>Understand the real cost of renting versus buying</h2>

<p>For buyers weighing up the shift from renting to owning, the numbers are closer than many expect.</p>

<p>Here’s how the numbers stack up for a studio at Mason &amp; Main (based on a $498,000 purchase):</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $498,000</li>
	<li><strong>Five per cent deposit (First Home Guarantee):</strong> ~$24,900</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount:</strong> ~$473,100</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment (6.29% variable, 30-year term):</strong> ~$675–$695/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $590–$620/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong> 6.16% - 6.47%</li>
</ul>

<p>At this level, the gap between renting and owning is relatively narrow, particularly when factoring in long-term equity, with rental returns also making the apartments a viable option for investors.</p>

<p>The rental range reflects current asking rents for remaining studio stock in the development and, based on prevailing asking prices, equates to an indicative gross rental yield of up to 6.47 per cent.</p>

<p>For buyers seeking more internal space, Mason &amp; Main also offers a range of one-bedroom apartments from $629,000, alongside larger one-bedroom plus multipurpose room configurations priced from $680,000 - all priced under $800,000 and eligible for first home buyer incentives.</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $629,000</li>
	<li><strong>20 per cent deposit:</strong> ~$125,800 (5% deposit on exchange: $31,450)</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount 80%:</strong> ~$503,200</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment:</strong> ~$720–$740/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $650–$680/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong>&nbsp;5.37% - 5.62%</li>
</ul>

<p>One-bedroom apartments continue to present a balanced option for both owner-occupiers and investors, supported by steady rental demand across Western Sydney.<span style="font-size:small"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial">&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359812]</p>

<h2>Make sure you're across the government incentives</h2>

<p>Government incentives continue to play a key role in reducing the upfront cost barrier.</p>

<p>At Mason &amp; Main, studio, one, and two-bedroom apartments are priced under $800,000, allowing eligible buyers to access a full stamp duty exemption under the NSW First Home Buyers Assistance Scheme.</p>

<p>On a $498,000 purchase, that represents a saving of roughly $17,900 that would otherwise need to be paid at settlement.</p>

<p>Combined with the First Home Guarantee, which enables purchases with as little as a five per cent deposit, the total capital required to secure a home is significantly reduced compared to traditional lending pathways.</p>

<h2>No waiting, no uncertainty</h2>

<p>For first home buyers who want to move sooner rather than later, Mason &amp; Main removes one of the more common pain points from the purchase process entirely. The development is already complete and move-in ready, meaning buyers can walk through the apartments, inspect the finishes, and have full certainty about what they're purchasing before signing anything.</p>

<p>Coronation brought in renowned architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> to design the development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The project's design drew inspiration from the area's rich heritage, in particular the nearby brickworks and aqueduct, infusing a contemporary perspective to seamlessly integrate historical influences into the design," Woods Bagot Principal Dom Alvaro says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=736]</p>

<h2>Factor in location and lifestyle</h2>

<p>Beyond the apartment itself, the surrounding infrastructure matters, particularly for a first purchase. Merrylands Station sits 350 metres from the development, putting the Parramatta CBD a five-minute drive away and the Sydney CBD roughly 25 minutes via the Western Line. Directly across the road is Stockland <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/merrylands-nsw-2160">Merrylands</a>, one of Greater Western Sydney's major retail centres.</p>

<p>At street level, Mason &amp; Main's own retail and dining precinct has more than 30 tenants trading, including Iftar, Macelleria, Hayat, San Churro, Yuzu, and Fat Jaks. Residents also have access to a resort-style pool, a Technogym-equipped gym, private dining rooms, and a rooftop terrace with panoramic views across Parramatta, the Sydney CBD, and the Blue Mountains, all exclusive to the building.</p>

<p>Due to the mix of configurations, including studios which are rarely offered in today's new apartment market, first home buyers and investors have driven Mason &amp; Main to over 90 per cent sold.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Managing Director Joe Nahas says the development is driving a revitalisation of Merrylands, setting a high standard for future developments in the area.</p>

<p>Mason &amp; Main is move-in ready and is the latest in a series of award-winning mixed-use developments by Coronation Property.</p>

<p><em>Disclaimer: Mortgage repayment figures are estimates only, based on a 6.29 per cent variable rate over a 30-year term (Canstar, April 2026). Pricing and rental estimates are indicative and based on current listings and project information. Gross yield figures are indicative and derived from asking prices and estimated rental ranges. Stamp duty savings are indicative only. Buyers should seek independent financial and legal advice before proceeding.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=31751]</p>


How first home buyers can enter the Sydney property market for under $500k

<p data-end="390" data-start="110">Australia’s housing debate has rarely been more urgent. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council forecasts the country could fall around 262,000 homes short of housing needs by 2029, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing planners, governments and developers.</p>

<p data-end="514" data-start="392">In response, much of the conversation has centred on high-density towers around transport corridors and strategic centres.</p>

<p data-end="676" data-start="516">Diversified developer Coronation Property, while also focused on well-located, strategic sites, is incorporating an arguably underutilised typology, the terrace.</p>

<p data-end="983" data-start="678">Difficult to integrate into true high-rise developments, terraces have become a defining feature of Coronation’s lower-rise portfolio, including projects in Ashbury and Erskineville. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a> places a stronger emphasis on this housing type, forming part of a broader community mix.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">At its Erskineville development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, terraces are more limited, with just a handful&nbsp;included within the wider, predominantly apartment-led precinct, one of the first developments to launch in Erskineville in several years.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368392]</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Terrace residents at Lillian benefit from many of the same advantages as apartment owners, the lock-up-and-leave lifestyle and access to shared amenities like the rooftop wellness space, but with significantly more space.</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Spanning multiple levels, the terraces also feature front and rear courtyards, providing direct access to the central landscaped gardens within the precinct.</p>

<h3 data-end="212" data-section-id="1n97jye" data-start="191">The terrace model</h3>

<p data-end="464" data-start="214">Terrace housing has long been part of Australia’s urban fabric. From Paddington and Surry Hills to Glebe and Annandale, rows of terrace homes have shaped neighbourhood streets, offering a housing form that sits between detached houses and apartments.</p>

<p data-end="631" data-start="466">The contemporary terrace, however, addresses many of the limitations of older designs, where narrow staircases and constrained layouts often compromised liveability.</p>

<p data-end="703" data-start="633">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368157]</p>

<p data-end="834" data-start="705">“Terraces represent one of the city’s most intelligent housing models,” says Joe Nahas, Managing Director of Coronation Property.</p>

<p data-end="1085" data-start="836">“They deliver density without losing the human scale that makes neighbourhoods liveable. In many ways, they provide a bridge between the Sydney we know and the Sydney we need to build. If Sydney is going to grow well, it can’t rely on towers alone.”</p>

<hr data-end="1090" data-start="1087" />
<h3 data-end="1124" data-section-id="1a7l0gw" data-start="1092">The evolution of the terrace</h3>

<p data-end="1262" data-start="1126">That thinking has shaped Coronation’s approach at Ashbury Terraces, where the terrace typology has been reinterpreted for modern living.</p>

<p data-end="1459" data-start="1264">Designed by SJB, the project recently received recognition at the 2026 Better Future World Design Awards, acknowledging its architectural clarity and response to the surrounding suburban context.</p>

<p data-end="1564" data-start="1461">SJB Director Adam Haddow says the intent was to evolve a familiar housing form rather than reinvent it.</p>

<p data-end="1723" data-start="1566">“The terrace is one of Sydney’s most familiar housing forms, so our approach at Ashbury was to reinterpret that typology in a contemporary way,” Haddow says.</p>

<p data-end="1888" data-start="1725">“The homes are designed to sit comfortably within the existing neighbourhood while introducing more light, landscape and shared spaces that support modern living.”</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1890">Ashbury Terraces combines terraces, apartments and penthouses across a series of low-rise buildings, integrating contemporary architecture with landscaped communal spaces and resident amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2264" data-start="2084">That same typology is now being carried into Coronation’s Lillian development in Erskineville, where a smaller number of terraces sit within a predominantly apartment-led precinct.</p>

<hr data-end="2269" data-start="2266" />
<h3 data-end="2289" data-section-id="cazuws" data-start="2271">Buyer response</h3>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2291">Coronation’s decision to include terraces at Lillian was informed by strong buyer feedback from Ashbury Terraces, where purchasers were drawn to the flexibility and scale the housing type offers.</p>

<p data-end="2588" data-start="2488">One resident, Sweta Pursem, purchased a terrace as a single buyer, citing its long-term versatility.</p>

<p data-end="2720" data-start="2590">“As a single buyer, it might seem surprising that I chose a terrace over an apartment, but I was thinking long term,” Pursem says.</p>

<p data-end="2851" data-start="2722">“The terraces are incredibly versatile, catering to a range of lifestyles while still offering the space and privacy of a house.”</p>

<p data-end="2962" data-start="2853">For Pursem, the multi-level layout provides a level of functionality not typically found in apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="3202" data-start="2964">“Having a separate living area from the bedroom and home office makes everyday living feel both functional and comfortable. When friends and family come to visit, the layout gives a sense of privacy while still feeling open and spacious.”</p>

<p data-end="3279" data-start="3204">Her terrace also supports a more connected, lifestyle-driven way of living.</p>

<p data-end="3537" data-start="3281">“I love entertaining, and the courtyard is ideal for relaxed weekend drinks with friends. I tend to use each level differently throughout the day, it creates a natural rhythm between work, downtime and entertaining, which I didn’t have in apartment living.”</p>

<p data-end="3692" data-start="3539">Ashbury Terraces is now complete and ready to move in, while Lillian in Erskineville is under construction and expected to welcome residents in mid-2027.</p>


Coronation champions terraces as a key piece of Sydney’s housing mix

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-5860701746523950073" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>When it comes to property investment I generally favour the largest capital city housing markets, which in Australia tend to have more diversified economies, the greatest population and employment growth, tighter supply, and less prime location land available for release. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the <em>regional</em> success stories of the past half decade has been a town - or a "city" as you would say in Australia - that I went to visit this weekend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a population of around 162,000 it is the 16th largest city in Australia, and the largest inland city after the nation's capital, Canberra...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>The city I am referring to, of course, is <strong>Toowoomba</strong> in Queensland, to the west of Brisbane.</span></div>
<div><span><br>Queensland is the one state in Australia which has a number of sizeable regional cities, and there are four others that are larger again than Toowoomba: Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, and arguably Cairns (depending upon where you draw the boundary). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>The <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/x" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a> found in a 2014 study that Australia's capital cities have become vital to economic activity, driving most of the economy in every state .</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>For regional centres, Grattan found that it is their proximity to the CBD which largely drives their fortunes and thus their respective rates of economic growth. </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>According to Grattan's research, regional centres stationed less than 150km from the CBD are growing at a considerably faster pace than those located further away.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This in turn suggests that the best placed regional centres over the long term might include cities such as Toowoomba which is positioned approximately 125km from Brisbane. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Other centres which sit close to their respective capitals include Geelong (around 75km from Melbourne), Newcastle &amp; the Hunter (Newcastle is located approximately 160km from Sydney), and Wollongong (85km to the south of Sydney). </span></div>
<div><span><br>The end of the mining construction boom will lead to desperate times for some regional centres, but the unemployment rate in Toowoomba has remained relatively low thanks to its diversified economy, which includes defence, agriculture, food processing, energy resources, retail and construction.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There are some ongoing wages cuts disputes happening in the region, but overally the economy has held up relatively well. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Toowoomba a regional success story: Pete Wargent

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<div>A stunning research note from Cameron Kusher of <em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> which revealed that while median vacant land prices continued to rise very strongly in Australian capital cities over the past year, regional land prices fell by -3.4% to $156,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular land values in Sydney (+16.6%) and Melbourne (+14.5%) have exploded over the past year.<br><br>
</div>
<div>And while demand for housing is presently low in Western Australia, median land prices in Perth continued to escalate very significantly (+10.3%), which in turn will force up the cost of new housing. Today, Sydney and Perth have the most expensive land prices in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unlike in the capital cities regional lot sizes have actually expanded by +8.3% over the past year according to Kusher, making the decline in median land prices all the more notable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Driven by rapid expansion in household debt regional property prices had a relatively strong run in the lead up to the financial crisis, but this trend has evidently now slowed.<br><br>While a 750sqm lot in a capital city 25 years ago would have cost you $50,000 according to Kusher, today it would set you back $417,800...and rising.</div>
<div>
<br>Regional land values are therefore reportedly some 39% cheaper than in the capital cities, the largest such differential in since 1990.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly over the long haul land prices have appreciated at a very similar percentage annual rate between capital cities and the regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This implies in turn that the best performing property types have been those with a high percentage land value.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More remote properties - where the land component comprises only a small part of the asset value - remain cheap precisely because the value is all in the <em>building, </em>and not the land.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Location, location, location" as the old mantra goes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Why is this happening?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why are regional prices not keeping pace? And particularly why has this become the case now?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is a complex question, but a major reason for the strength in capital city land values is likely to be the restricted supply of new land made available for development in the congested capital cities where population growth and therefore underlying demand is strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regional population growth has been considerably weaker ex-Queensland, and there is generally speaking more land available for development.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the financial crisis there has been another key driver for the larger capitals: jobs growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for August 2015 today which underscored some important trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cities creating jobs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While regional employment in the two most populous states was growing reasonably robustly until the financial crisis, regional employment growth has now slowed, with the mining capex cliff now adding to the drag in some regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Looking below at cumulative employment growth since Febuary 2007, we can see why both Sydney and Melbourne have been labelled by the Reserve Bank as "self-sustaining job magnets", creating +350,000 new jobs apiece.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The combined cities and towns of regional New South Wales has created a fair level of new employment (+100,000), particularly in the Hunter, Newcastle and the Illawarra. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, over the same time period regional Victoria has by comparison created almost no additional employment (+10,000) on a net basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">An unfortunate corrollary of this is while there was always a level of frictional unemployment in the lead up to 2007, there had at times been a job for almost everyone who wanted one.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Sadly this is no longer the case, and regional unemployment in particular has been pulsing higher. </div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div class="separator">
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Not dissimilarly while Greater Brisbane has now added +23,000 jobs over the year to August 2015, regional Queensland employment has declined by -27,000, though there may be some debate over the "quality" of new jobs created. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">While some revisions have been made to population assumptions relating to Western Australia, total employment in Perth has continued to rise modestly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately total employment in Adelaide has declined over the past <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">five</span></strong> years (-2,700), with more challenges in the pipeline in the manufacturing space and rising unemployment.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong><br><br><div>Smoothing the volatile monthly unemployment readings below on a rolling annual basis we can see that Greater Sydney remains the best placed economy, the unusual labour market of Darwin aside.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales also has the lowest level of mortgage delinquency rates according the latest figures from Moody's.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, unemployment rates are now trending down in Greater Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand, unemployment is clearly rising in Perth and Adelaide.</span>
</div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span>Adelaide is now recording an unemployment rate reading of 7.9 per cent which is dragging up the 12 month moving average.</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>On the other hand Greater Brisbane has now recorded two surprisingly low readings of just 5.2 per cent over the last three months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Realistically the true unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane is higher than that, but nevertheless this is heartening to see for the Queensland capital. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Regional land prices are falling: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>This week’s preliminary clearance rate of 70.7% across a total of 2,064 reported auctions represents the third lowest clearance rate so far this year across the combined capital cities, down further from last week when the final clearance rate was recorded at 71.2%. </span></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>It will be interesting to see if there is any upwards revision as the remaining results are reported. There were 2,493 capital city auctions held this week, compared to 2,654 last week and 2,530 at the same time last year. Over the past eight weeks, this is the fourth week where more than 2,400 auctions have been held across the combined capitals, while over the same 8 week period one year ago, there was only one week where this volume of auctions was seen.</span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="845" height="635"></p>
<p><strong>Melbourne’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate this week is 73.3 per cent, down from 74.3 per cent the previous week and higher than one year ago, when 72.1 per cent of auctions were successful. 1,091 residential properties went to auction in Melbourne this week, showing volumes are slightly lower than over the previous week (1,189) and one year ago (1,221). This week, Melbourne’s strongest performing sub-region was the Outer East, where 78.4 per cent of the 74 reported auctions were sold. On the other end of the scale was the Mornington Peninsula, where a lower 60.6 per cent of the 33 reported auctions cleared.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="912" height="611"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In </span><strong>Sydney</strong><span>, there has been little change after recording the lowest clearance rate for the year over the previous week at 73.1 per cent, with preliminary results showing a clearance rate of 73.2 per cent. Sydney’s auction market has consistently been performing at a level lower than the strengths seen at the start of the year, when, for 22 consecutive weeks, the clearance rate for the city was above the 80 per cent mark. In saying that, the number of auctions held across the city has been trending up, with 1,008 auctions held this week and 1,075 last week. One year ago, Sydney’s auction clearance rate was 78 per cent across 883 auctions. The North Sydney and Hornsby sub-region had the highest volume of auctions this week, with 183 held and a preliminary clearance rate of 76.8 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="820" height="554"></p>
<p><span>Across </span><strong>Brisbane</strong><span>, 108 auctions results have been reported this week, with 52.8 per cent successful. This week, 144 auctions were held across the city, compared to 179 last week, when the clearance rate was 50.3 per cent and 154 at the same time last year, when the clearance rate was significantly lower, at 38.9 per cent. 29 </span><strong>Gold</strong><span> </span><strong>Coast</strong><span> auction results have been reported so far this week, with a preliminary clearance rate of 41.4 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="821" height="551"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate was 71.4 per cent this week, up from 62.4 per cent the previous week and 68.4 per cent last year. The number of auctions held across the city increased on a week-on-week basis, from 89 last week to 99 this week, while Adelaide’s auction market was busier at the same time last year (129).</span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="545"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>30 <strong>Perth</strong> auctions were held this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 37.5 per cent, compared to 54.2 per cent the previous week and 51.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>There were 116 auctions across <strong>Canberra</strong> this week, compared to 79 last week and 80 one year ago. Preliminary results show that 57.0 per cent of reported results were successful this week, down from 65.2 per cent last week and 58.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>So far this week, 4 of the 5 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auctions have been reported, with only 1 successful result.</p>
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More than 2,000 auctions held across combined capital cities: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>There’s been a number of articles this week about the peak of the Sydney market. It does look as if the market is at or slightly past its peak however, it is important to thoroughly investigate how the market is tracking currently.</p>
<p><strong>Values</strong></p>
<p>Sydney home values have increased by 17.6% over the 12 months to August 2015 and by 14.0% over the first 8 months of 2015. Sydney home values have been trending higher since they reached a low point in May 2012 and since that time Sydney home values have increased by a total of 49.5%. To put that growth in perspective, a home worth $500,000 in May 2012 would now be worth $747,704. The data presented shows that home values have been trending higher at a fairly rapid pace however, more recent data may point to a slowing of the rate of growth. Home values rose by 1.1% over the month of August however, data for September is showing a much more sluggish rate of growth in home values with values -0.3% lower over the twenty eight days to 20 September.</p>
<p><strong>Sales transactions</strong></p>
<p>Unfortunately sales transactions are not a timely indicator of the market’s performance due to delays in receiving the full population of settled sales transactions.  Furthermore, off-the-plan sales are entered into sales counts at their contract date however, the record is not received until settlement which could be several years down the track for large projects. As a result, when you have heightened off-the-plan sales activity as we currently do, unit sales in particular are inclined to be undercounted.  The latest sales data to June 2015 shows that over the second quarter of the year there were 23,432 sales. Compared to the same quarter in 2014, house sales were -5.5% lower and unit sales were -16.5% lower.</p>
<p><strong>Time on market</strong></p>
<p>At the end of July 2015 the typical Sydney home was selling after just 25 days. At CoreLogic RP Data we’ve been tracking the time on market since the beginning of 2005 and this is the quickest rate of sale recorded over this period. The combination of strong value growth and a rapid rate of sale suggests that demand is still quite strong across the city.</p>
<p><strong>Auction clearance rates</strong></p>
<p>The preliminary auction clearance rate for Sydney last week was 73.2% which was virtually unchanged from the final auction clearance rate the previous week.  Importantly, in most instances the final auction clearance rates are revised lower. Auction clearance rates have shifted from their peak of almost 90% in April of this year to their current level.  At the same time a year ago clearance rates were recorded at a higher 78%. It is important to note that over recent weeks the number of properties being taken to auction has been significantly higher than the number taken to auction a year ago. Nevertheless it is clear that the auction market which represents slightly more than a quarter of all Sydney home sales has weakened over recent months and has not rebounded so far during the Spring Selling Season.</p>
<p><strong>Property listings</strong></p>
<p>The latest weekly listings data which tracks houses, units and vacant land for sale across Sydney shows that over the past 4 weeks there were 8,525 new listings and 20,121 total listings.  New listings are now at their highest level since the week ended 30/11/14 and total listings are at their highest level since the week ended 14/12/14. Comparing listings to levels at the same time a year ago shows that new listings are currently 19.0% higher and total listings are up 5.0%. In the early part of the Spring Selling Season there is much more stock available for sale in Sydney than there was at the same time a year ago. Heightened stock levels at a time when auction markets are softening and value growth has shown some early signs of slowing may contribute to a further slowdown in the rate of capital gain over the coming months.  This is due to the fact that active buyers are afforded more choice and may not have to pay such a price premium to secure a home.</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage Activity</strong></p>
<p>The CoreLogic RP Data Mortgage Index tracks pre-purchasing activity and has shown some clear weakness over recent weeks. While the Index remains at quite high levels it has fallen by -2.0% over the past couple of weeks at a time when, seasonally, the trend should typically be rising. At the same time last year the index had risen by 1.2% over the previous two weeks. With mortgages, particularly investment mortgages becoming more difficult to obtain, we are potentially seeing the first signs that this segment of the market it is starting to slow resulting in an easing of demand.</p>
<p><strong>Building approvals</strong></p>
<p>The latest building approvals data for July 2015 shows that there was a record high 5,159 dwelling approvals over the month. This was comprised of 1,655 house approvals and 3,504 unit approvals.  Over the 12 months to July 2015 there have been 15,213 house approvals and a record high 30,921 unit approvals. Sydney has consistently approved more units for construction than houses since early 1993. With a record pipeline of new housing stock it is going some way to alleviating housing shortages across the city. It also affords buyers much more choice when they are looking to purchase a new home</p>
<p><strong>Housing finance</strong></p>
<p>The latest housing finance data for New South Wales to July 2015 shows that demand from the owner occupier segment is starting to ramp-up while investor demand is starting to wane. Importantly, owner occupier demand includes refinances so if we look exclusively at new lending (excluding refinances) we also see owner occupier demand ramping up while investor demand seems to be waning. Investors still account for the greatest proportion of new lending (58.0%) however, two months ago investors accounted for a record-high 62.4% of all new mortgage lending in NSW.</p>
<p><strong>Rents and yields</strong></p>
<p>Over the 12 months to August 2015, rental rates across Sydney have increased by 2.3% which is the slowest annual rate of rental growth since May 2013. With rental growth sluggish and value growth remaining very strong, gross rental yields across Sydney have shifted to record low levels. Yields were recorded at 3.3% in August 2015 which is the softest yields on record. We’ve already mentioned that investor activity across NSW has recently hit record highs and remains elevated. It appears that many investors are having little regard for rental returns and are largely focussing on the future capital growth potential and the subsequent benefits from a negative gearing strategy.</p>
<p>Although the data is still generally undoubtedly strong, it appears there are signs that the market could be showing the first sign that growth rates are peaking. Record high new housing supply at a time when mortgage demand is seemingly slowing along with auction clearance rates and listings are rising points to potentially softer value growth conditions for the city. While we expect the rate of growth will likely start to slow, the significant stimulus of low mortgage rates is expected to ensure that home values continue to rise albeit at a more moderate pace.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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What is going on in the Sydney housing market? Cameron Kusher

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<div>The ABS will release its Household Finance &amp; Wealth data series for Q2 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am expecting to see aggregate net Australian household wealth well over +55% higher than its Q3 2009 nadir, which would be representative of a remarkable recovery.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, in the period since 30 June there has been something of a king hit to household balance sheets with the ASX 200 index (XJO) having nosedived below 5,000 after dropping by a further 105.5 points or 2% today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as April the market had been threatening to surge above 6,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as things stand the "XJO 6000" caps have been gently stowed away (back into cold storage with the "FTSE 7000" scarves!) and the bourse is instead shaping to return to the same levels we saw a decade ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" alt=""> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Expect the ABS to show recovery figures: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Australia's four most populous states accounted for a thumping 93.4% of Australia's </span>population growth<span> over the year to Q1 2015, with New South Wales (its total population increasing to 7,597,000), Victoria (5,915,000), Queensland (4,767,000) and Western Australia (2,587,000) being the four states in question.</span><br><br><span>You could more or less chuck a soggy beach towel over the rest. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The greatest gains in headcount across the most recent 12 month reporting period were seen in New South Wales (+101,200), Victoria (+97,500) and Queensland (+61,100), and as we've already seen that the recent "births" figures are almost certainly materially </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/population-growth-surprise" target="_blank">understated</a><span> for the two most populous states. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Population growth rates have slowed dramatically in the resources states and territories, including in Queensland (+1.3 per cent), and particularly in Western Australia (+1.4 per cent).<br><br>Meanwhile population growth in the Northern Territory has dried up almost completely (+0.2 per cent), and with net interstate migration away from the Top End reaching its most rapid level on record (-3,400) population 'growth' is set to turn negative in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth has also slowed in another state which is suffering from a "brain drain" - South Australia - where net interstate migration of negative -3,000 has helped to pull the rate of population growth down to just +0.8 per cent, though it still needs to slow further.<br><br>The 'Festival State' has not created a single full time job on a net basis since 2007 and the result has been a horribly increasing rate of unemployment.</div>
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<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Components of growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net overseas migration remains very strong in New South Wales (+67,000) and Victoria (+55,000), but has clearly slowed in the resources states as the mining construction boom begins to fade into the rear view mirror.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The most interesting trend for me over the last few years has been to note just how few people have been choosing to leave Sydney and Melbourne for cheaper or warmer climes (refer to the net interstate migration chart below), instead opting to stay put for the relative security of their capital city employment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, I do know more than a few people - including myself, in fact - who have recently decided to relocate from Sydney to Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane is not only comparatively inexpensive, it also has a warmer climate and is considerably less crowded - and thus if the jobs market is creating the requisite employment it should be a no-brainer from my perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data below shows that the trickle of Sydneysiders moving to Queensland <em>has </em>only been a trickle through this cycle to date, and most certainly not a flood.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, net interstate migration for the March quarter into Queensland (+1,300) was plenty stronger than we saw in the prior corresponding period (+700) taking annual net interstate migration into the Sunshine State back up to +6,200 from its recent nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Totting that little lot up we can see in the chart below that population growth has slowed significantly in Western Australia (+35,300) and Queensland (+61,100), and has slowed further in South Australia (+13,900).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand annual population growth remains supremely strong in New South Wales (+101,200) and Victoria (+97,500) despite the under-reporting of births over the past six months.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing supply</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On an obliquely related note, although I can't remember exactly where I read it, somewhere this week was a piece which suggested that the construction of 10,000 apartments over four years at Sydney's Green Square would form part of a "tsunami" of oversupply in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure if this was some kind of gee-up, but as you can see the in the figures above with the state population having increased by close to +400,000 over the past four years alone...I dunno, but I reckon someone's having a giraffe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the case, New South Wales has an existing stock of close to <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/nsw-dwelling-stock-value-explodes" target="_blank">3 million dwellings</a>, and to my knowledge there has not been any recorded example of such a tiny fraction of additional construction having a material impact on a capital city property market.<br><br>Like London, Sydney is a city which is increasingly constrained in terms of its land supply in desirable locations, and is a city which is more or less permanently in a position of requiring new supply.<br><br>Now granted we're presently constructing proportionately far too many of those "shoebox" type developments - no arguments there - but as the Greater Sydney population continues to mushroom over time any such localised examples of oversupply will only ever be temporary in nature. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
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State population trends: Pete Wargent

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<p>Last week's article generated a lot of interest and several phone calls. It was about comparing the numbers on a larger development with a dual occupancy project. The main take out from the people I spoke to was that whilst it would be nice to be able to fund an eleven unit project, the reality is that a two unit project is much more achievable.</p>
<p>One call came from Ian who lives in Sydney. Ian explained his frustration at trying to buy land to build a duplex on in an outer suburb of Sydney. He told me that at one land release he'd been to, a bus load of people (who he described as 'foreigners') arrived and camped out to secure land to bank.  Land banking is the practice of holding land for future use or sale. It's usually done be land developers who may buy Greenfield sites and wait for rezoning or hold larger parcels of land to develop later. </p>
<p>I found his story amazing and it only confirmed that the Sydney market is crazy (like we didn't know that already!). I don't think it's fair that this kind of thing is going on. Ian asked about the typical cost of a dual occupancy project in the Newcastle area, where we are currently developing. There was a long pause on the phone after I told him it was around the $740,000 mark. That cost includes the land and construction of two, three bedroom, two bathroom single story villas including a Torrens title subdivision.  </p>
<p>"Ian, are you still there?" I thought the connection had dropped out. He said, "Yeah I'm still here, did you just say $740,000?". I confirmed that and he went onto tell me about a TWO bedroom apartment he'd looked at purchasing as brand new in Ryde in Sydney's north west priced at $915,000.  Now it was my turn to be silent. Wow. that is a lot of money for a two bedder.</p>
<p>Let's compare value for money here. On one hand we have two x three bedroom properties on separate Torrens title and on the other hand we have one x two bedroom apartment on a strata title. </p>
<p>The rent on the new two bedroom apartment in Ryde may be around  $600 per week. That's a gross yield of 3.4%.  The combined rent on the two x 3 three bedroom villas will be around $900 per week. That's a gross yield of 6.3%.  </p>
<p>The depreciation benefits on the Ryde apartment may be around $15,000 in year one using the Diminishing Method and the two villas in Newcastle will achieve around $22,000. </p>
<p>The Ryde investment will be negatively geared and the Newcastle investment should be cash-flow positive. This will depend on the owners taxable income. </p>
<p>Capital growth rates over the past three years are similar with Ryde at 20.2% and Newcastle at 23.2%. source RP Data.</p>
<p>But there is one very important difference between these two investments which makes one much more sense than the other. </p>
<p>Equity. </p>
<p>By building two dwellings and subdividing, we are creating a big chunk of equity through the development process. This is called the 'developer's margin'. This gives you a nice buffer that can stay in the project or can be drawn out after refinancing to use to continue on your investment journey. </p>
<p>Which investment would you choose?  </p>
<p> <em>Jo Chivers is Chief Executive Officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

One big benefit in developing over a buy and hold strategy: Jo Chivers

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<div>The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0/" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> data for the month of June 2015 confirmed that population growth in Australia will be once again be slower in this calendar year.<br><br>As I argued a year ago, by the third quarter of 2014 it had become evident that the assumption reported widely in the media that the population of Australia would boom by around 2.4 million persons over the next six years was too high - much too high, in fact!<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZK9-CCXjNWs/VcWS2tAESjI/AAAAAAAAXd0/LM0ux2QIp00/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZK9-CCXjNWs/VcWS2tAESjI/AAAAAAAAXd0/LM0ux2QIp00/s400/A1.jpg" width="400" height="65"></a></div>
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<div>In the event population growth slowed considerably to be up by an estimated +330,200 in 2014, and population growth will be slower again in 2015.<br><br>Over the longer term we might indeed expect to see much stronger levels of population growth return for the reasons I have already explored, but for the foreseeable future lower population growth will be the new norm.<br><br>Let's take a look at the implications of the latest figures in three parts.<br><br>
</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (i) - Slowing immigration nationally</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>The number of long term arrivals into Australia has slowed further over the past year, and consequently net long term migration has pulled back to +292,000 on a rolling annual basis, sliding from a recent peak of more than +400,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that population growth in 2015 will likely slow further perhaps to around +300,000 persons from +330,200 in 2014.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-l47JN3T3sRc/VcWZDBPOGOI/AAAAAAAAXeM/e9Bki5YjSO8/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-l47JN3T3sRc/VcWZDBPOGOI/AAAAAAAAXeM/e9Bki5YjSO8/s1600/A3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-l47JN3T3sRc/VcWZDBPOGOI/AAAAAAAAXeM/e9Bki5YjSO8/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="284"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">One of several key potential drivers of this trend has been the sharp reduction in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Meanwhile the number of permanent settler Brits has slowed to a mere trickle - just 470 settlers in June hailed from the United Kingdom, the lowest monthly figure across the full 25 years of available data.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Kiwi citizens can move freely between Australia and "home" and as such are theoretically far more sensitive to shifts in labour market conditions.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And while spare capacity in the labour market has being rising over the past three years in Australia, it had been tightening for some time in New Zealand.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">With mining construction activity now slowing sharply in Australia - and Christchurch in New Zealand seeing a high volume of reconstruction activity - it is perhaps unsurprising that fewer New Zealanders are making the trans-Tasman trip on a permanent footing (although a record 1.27 million still came to Australian shores on a short-term basis over the past year).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On the other hand the number of settlers from countries such as China and India continues to slowly but surely break new heights.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3t9V6rJXEx4/VcVDUvK0AdI/AAAAAAAAXco/XFqtxZxRjsE/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Indeed, the overwhelming majority of settlers in Australia now hail from Asia, with the middle east the only other region or continent presently in a confirmed uptrend.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-h6P7CisOE5w/VcVDUyRlWmI/AAAAAAAAXck/EIlxWS9olsY/s1600/Arr7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (ii) - Record visitors to Australia</span></strong></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There is a flip side to the softer pace of growth in Australia's economy, and that is that falling interest rates and a correspondingly weakening currency have encouraged the tourism sector to attract a record number of short term arrivals Down Under. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This year the rolling annual number of short term arrivals blasted past 7 million for the first time to a record 7.12 million in the 2015 financial year (denoted by the blue line below).</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s1600/Arr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s1600/Arr2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s640/Arr2.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">While the corresponding drag on overseas travel by Australians has only been fairly gradual to date (denoted by the red line above), the weaker dollar also means that over time comparatively fewer Aussies will be inclined to make overseas trips, which in turn will act as a further boost for the domestic economy. </span></p>
<div>I holidayed on the Sunshine Coast myself in the past week, and it is quite evident that more Aussies are inclined to hang out in locations such as Noosa over the winter than has been the case in recent years.<br><br>After all, travelling overseas is not <em>quite</em> as much fun as when the dollar was at sky high levels just a few years ago!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Accordingly the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals has steadily been trending down for the past two years.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s1600/Arr3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s1600/Arr3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s640/Arr3.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">One trend which is definitely </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> slowing down is the number of Chinese visitors to Australia with more than 1.25 million visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong over the past 12 months, with the latest figures showing no signs of this emerging mega-trend easing off.</span></p>
<div>A record 563,800 Americans have also enjoyed the dramatic shift in the exchange rate over the past year.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s1600/Arr4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s1600/Arr4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s640/Arr4.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Furthermore there has been an explosion in the number of foreign students in Australia - also largely hailing from Asia - another trend which has in part been driven by exchange rate movements. </span></p>
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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is an emerging demographic trend which will impact Sydney and Melbourne most keenly.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div class="separator">The full impact of the depreciation of Australia's currency has yet to flow through to this data and we will certainly now see further short visitor records broken in the year ahead.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (iii) - 3 implications of lower population growth</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">So what are the impacts of slower population growth in Australia, which could continue for the foreseeable future? </span></p>
<div>There will be many impacts, of course, but here are just three of the most prominent observations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, and most obviously, slower population growth will equate to lower demand for goods and services, which in turn over time should result in <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">lower economic and employment growth.</span></strong><br><br>Over the next few years there will be a lower than expected requirement for investment in building offices, warehouses, housing, machinery, plant and equipment. </div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Secondly, with employment growth having tracked at an estimated 2.1% or 243,600 new jobs over the past year - which is considerably faster than the estimated rate of population growth of just 1.4 per cent - the Reserve Bank now </span><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2015/aug/html/index" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">believes</a><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> that the </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">unemployment rate has likely peaked</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> for this cycle. </span></p>
<div>Previously it had been forecast that the unemployment rate would continue rising to around 6.5 per cent, but now the unemployment rate is seen as more likely to be falling again from 2017. The darker blue shaded areas represent the Reserve's 70 per cent confidence interval.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s1600/UE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s1600/UE.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s400/UE.jpg" width="400" height="387"></a></div>
</div>
<div>However, there are many regions in Australia where unemployment is still elevated or rising, particularly in resources-influenced regions and in South Australia where the trend rate of unemployment has hit 7.9 per cent and rising.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, with the mining investment supernova now set to implode in spectacular style, the strong rates of immigration which benefited the resources areas of regional Western Australia and regional Queensland have now ebbed away.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UAU8Pw52o-w/VZsC3PaTSPI/AAAAAAAAWtQ/Ip5KWRT_itE/s640/eng2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UAU8Pw52o-w/VZsC3PaTSPI/AAAAAAAAWtQ/Ip5KWRT_itE/s640/eng2.jpg" width="640" height="274"><br><br>Accordingly <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">population growth has become more capital city focused</span></strong>.<br><br>The most recently available data showed that Greater Melbourne and Greater Sydney alone accounted for all but half of Australia's total population growth, while Greater Brisbane and Greater Perth accounted combined for close to nearly a quarter of the total.<br><br>Regional population growth on the other hand has in aggregate been been slow and slowing.<br><br>As for whether the mining boom will have a second wind? Highly unlikely: that's not the way that commodity cycles typically tend to work.<br><br>The Reserve Bank's Commodity Index was once again smoked by another 5 per cent on a monthly average basis in SDR terms in July to be a punishing 20.2 per cent lower over the past year.<br><br>Ouch.<br><br>In Aussie dollar terms the decline has been a somewhat less dramatic 8.5 per cent year-on-year, but nevertheless Australia's terms of trade (TOT) remain well above their long run average (and TOT booms have historically tended to over-shoot on the downside too).</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s1600/Commods1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s1600/Commods1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s640/Commods1.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a><br><br></p>
<div>Note that it's not just iron ore and coal prices which have been hammered as demand from China and elsewhere has slowed in the face of a glut of supply.<br><br>Oil, aluminium, copper and gold have all hit half decade lows in recent times, while the price of silver has tracked little better.</div>
<div>
<br>Slightly bizarrely - given that coal prices are well below the project's notional break even point - the Adani Carmichael Mine is one possible exception to the accelerating decline in mining investment.<br><br>Some folk with the power to exert material influence evidently has the government's ear relating to this essentially unviable mega-project.<br><br>Generally speaking, however, mining production is ramping up, there is heavy downward pressure on commodity prices, and ever fewer material projects have been passing viability.</div>
<div>
<br>Going forward population growth in Australia will follow the employment growth, which has been heavily focused on Sydney and Melbourne, and to a somewhat lesser extent Brisbane and the Gold Coast.</div>
<div>
<br>Indeed, over the past year more than 80 per cent of employment growth has been found in New South Wales and Victoria, and overwhelmingly in Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Western Australian economy slowing and net interstate migration going into reverse gear, population growth will is likely to be heavily focused on the three largest capital cities - a trend which will only be exacerbated by the nascent explosion in foreign students.<br><br>The Reserve Bank added its own outlook for the housing market in the latest SOMP:<br><br><em>"Supply constraints, particularly in Sydney, may limit the extent to which new dwelling investment can satisfy growing demand, which raises the possibility that housing prices will grow more quickly than forecast. </em><br><em><br></em><em>Also, housing prices outside Sydney and Melbourne are little changed over the past year or so and may not yet have responded fully to the very low levels of interest rates."</em>
</div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Slower population growth implications for property investors: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-2519359441485115611" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Given the weak state of other sectors of the economy, the Retail Trade figures for the month and the June quarter took on an added significance.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, especially given soft wages and slowing population growth, the June data was happily very good.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms retail turnover was up by 0.7 per cent for the month leading to a strong annual result to June 2015 as charted below.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s1600/RT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>At the state level the impact of Sydney's housing boom and to a lesser extent that of Melbourne is evident with retail turnover rising very strongly in New South Wales and Victoria.</div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div>Perhaps more surprisingly, in turnover terms retail appears to have fired up a little elsewhere too, particularly in South Australia. </div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry groups</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It has been a relatively poor time for department stores retailing, perhaps reflective of increasing demand in the online shopping space.</div>
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<div class="separator">The big winner over the past year has been household goods with retail turnover pumped up by the housing prices and construction boom.</div>
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<span><span>Cafés</span>, restaurants </span>and takeaway expenditure has also continued to rise relentlessly over the past year, a trend which has been ongoing over the past decade, another shift which feeds off increased apartment dwelling.</div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts for Q2</span></strong><br><br><div>With June being the last month of the second quarter we also got the turnover figures reported in volume terms, which threw out an excellent result.</div>
<br><div>Retail volumes doubled market expectations to be up by 0.8 per cent for the quarter and 3.6 per cent for the year. </div>
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<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s1600/rt4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s640/rt4.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a><br><br><div>I used to do a chart here on quarterly volumes at the state level, but to be frank it's a Sunday morning and believe it or not I actually have better things to do!</div>
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<div>Suffice to say that New South Wales (+4.6 per cent) and Victoria (+4.4 per cent) have been the retail trade linchpins over the year to June 2015.</div>
<br>This is a very notable result given that net exports (which have contributed significantly to GDP over the past year) will evidently not been doing so in the second quarter.<br><br>I looked at how Australia racked up a record trade deficit for the second quarter in a little more detail here.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Overall this was a really good result for retail trade in the second quarter.</div>
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<div>And although the retail trade data is not necessarily representative of all household consumption this suggests that GDP for the second quarter will be held up by the strong capital city economies.</div>
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<div>Lately various surveys have hinted at gradually improving business conditions and confidence - and jobs growth has been strong over the past year at +233,600, particularly so in Sydney.</div>
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<div>On the other hand capital expenditure surveys have pointed towards very weak business investment.</div>
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<br>In that context, it is important that household consumption continues to produce sound results.</div>
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<div>The other contributor to a surprisingly upbeat GDP print in the first quarter (ex-inventories) was that of new housing, with the dwelling construction boom expected to continue over the next couple of years.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Housing construction helps retail remain robust: Pete Wargent

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<p>If some people think a declining clearance rate is a solid key performance indicator for our real estate markets they are badly mistaken as research identifies that the markets remain 60 per cent private treaty and 40% public auction.</p>
<p>Clearance rates are in my opinion more a mood indicator as to consumer confidence levels and not much more, although some commentators would have you believing they are the be all and end all.</p>
<p>If we are to better understand the intricate machinations of what is happening in our demographic markets I would like to see the property portals thinking in greater detail. For example, when a property appears on the market there should be two colour codes one for owner occupier sales and the other for investor sales. These are two entirely different market demographics although they today are bundled together despite being two totally different markets.</p>
<p>As I mentioned last week there will be a number of markets to watch in 2016 plus of course tax reform which is now looking much more likely with the changing of prime minister and new ministers running new portfolios. That too means new dialogue where it was quite interesting to listen to Treasurer Scott Morrison who said “the deficit reflects a spending problem, not a revenue problem”. The previous Treasurer Joe Hockey kept telling us Australia has a revenue problem not a spending problem.</p>
<p>You can rule out any changes to negative gearing by Messrs. Turnbull and Morrison whom will be watching what happens with the investor market, especially should the off – the – plan market have a run of defaults which is highly likely. Already the banks are starting to aggressively pull back lending for new construction projects in Sydney and Melbourne as they see some difficult times ahead with sales completions for overseas investors.</p>
<p>This week the Baird Government announced that 35,000 new homes would be made available in Western Sydney which would be expected to sell very quickly to owner occupiers so these developments won’t have any trouble attaining finance from the banks as this is an entirely different market demographic. Sydney urgently needs to address the owner occupier markets and housing affordability although for those watching these markets it’s getting more difficult to understand.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that Sydney house prices have jumped by 21.5 per cent over the past year. The Sydney House Price Index (HPI) rose 9.8 per cent over the June quarter which just so happens to be the largest single increase since the ABS commenced the series back in 2002. Just imagine the clarity if the ABS could differentiate these increases between owner occupiers and investors when we know that the investors were the ones really driving these gains.</p>
<p>This is further explained by why the banks are cutting back lending on the new residential markets as many believe a large percentage of the foreign buyers who jumped all over the new releases in Sydney and Melbourne are having a change of heart. Such observations then allow intelligent commentaries where investment bank Morgan Stanley declared this week that the housing boom had peaked. What we are seeing at the moment is much tighter lending rules, a very strong likelihood that Sydney now has an oversupply of new apartments and migration rates are slowing.</p>
<p>When this happens we can expect to see the apartment sales slowing considerably and prices starting to significantly ease which is long overdue. The difference that must be noted is this time around prices may ease naturally as against crashing where today we need to remember we are looking at an entirely different market specific.</p>
<p>If the overseas investors withdraw from the new developments then the prices only in those individual developments would be affected. Although we then find ourselves back at mood indicators where consumer confidence would decline significantly which then flows onto property prices.</p>
<p>Having said that the overseas investors have been clearly the most dominant with the off – the – plan sales so there are still a very large number of local investors waiting to absorb whatever re – sales come onto the market. What we don’t know is how sympathetic they will be to the developers pricing where the previous sale price won’t be that relevant. The developers have already pocketed the 10 per cent deposit although depending on the number of defaults the new pricing could be down by 20 per cent plus given the hype is not there anymore.</p>
<p>There are two topics that will be intriguing in 2016 – coincidentally they both start with the letter “p”;  property and of course politics.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 60</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 52</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 52</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year –9</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 22</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 3</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 35</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28</p>
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<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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