<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a> is preparing to commence construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> this October, marking the next milestone for the Melbourne CBD development and its higher-end Eliza Collection.

Spanning levels 44 to 68 of the 68-storey <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed tower, the Eliza Collection has been conceived as a lower-density offering within the broader development, with only five apartments on each floor, dedicated lift access and a collection of resident spaces reserved exclusively for Eliza Collection residents.

The Eliza Collection forms part of Far East Consortium's broader move toward larger-format residences at 640 Bourke Street, where the number of apartments was reduced from earlier plans as apartment sizes increased.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365685]

"What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Far East Consortium Director of Sales and Marketing Lauren Sheldon said.

Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang said the design process provided an opportunity to create more generous floorplans.

"We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=368869]

That thinking carries through to the Eliza Collection, where the residences have been designed around the space and functionality associated with a larger home, but positioned high above the centre of Melbourne.

Kitchens are equipped with Gaggenau appliances, a butler's pantry, temperature-controlled wine cabinet and sculptural pendant lighting, while engineered timber flooring, stone and porcelain finishes and custom cabinetry feature throughout the broader interiors.

Privacy and security are another point of distinction. Eliza Collection residents have dedicated lift access, while 640 Bourke Street will provide concierge services and secure resident parking. Short-stay accommodation, including Airbnb, will not be permitted within the development.

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Eliza Collection residents will also have exclusive access to selected amenity spaces across levels one and three of the restored Eliza Tinsley building. These include the Salon with grand piano, an art therapy room, private dining rooms and treatment rooms.

They sit within more than 3,000 sqm of amenity planned across 640 Bourke Street, alongside facilities including a pool, gym, whisky lounge and further social and wellness spaces.

The Eliza Tinsley building itself is central to the wider project's identity. Rather than treating the existing Eliza Tinsley façade as a separate element, Rothelowman used it as a starting point for the architecture of the new tower, with the historic building to accommodate the project's gallery and lobby.

"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=368872]

The tower will rise behind the retained heritage building at 640 Bourke Street, placing residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market and the Docklands waterfront.

With construction scheduled to begin in October, Far East Consortium has established an onsite display gallery at 640 Bourke Street, including fully built apartments that allow the project's layouts, materials and finishes to be inspected at full scale.

A fully built Eliza Collection apartment is also available to view at the display suite by appointment ahead of the planned October construction commencement.

Eligible purchasers who buy before construction commences can secure the full available off-the-plan stamp duty savings, subject to eligibility and applicable conditions.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]

Joel Robinson

Far East Consortium brings Eliza Collection to 640 Bourke Street ahead of October construction start

By the time S&amp;S Projects began planning <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia</a>, the developer already had three Rainbow Bay projects from which to draw.

Flow, Awaken and Esprit had given <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a> experience developing in the southern Gold Coast enclave, as well as buyer feedback that could be carried into its fourth project, a boutique collection of 38 residences at 271 Boundary Street.

“We have experienced a lot of success in this location and as this was our fourth building we had taken all of the learnings and buyer feedback from previous projects to arrive at a design and apartment mix that we believe had captured all of that experience and remained a true S&amp;S Project in its design and amenity,” the developer said.

That experience has translated into a collection of two, three, four and five-bedroom residences including two penthouses positioned on an elevated corner in Rainbow Bay, where the site opens to multiple coastal view corridors and the area's distinctive north-facing bay.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140491 project_image_fid=284542]

S&amp;S Projects says the Boundary Street site took years to assemble, having previously comprised six units, a house and a duplex. The developer worked individually with the existing owners to bring the properties together after an earlier attempt to sell the site had been complicated by the number of parties involved.

“We are constantly looking for properties that meet our brand standards of location, views, and sites that are rare with unique aspects that we can develop to maximise the lifestyle of residents who live in our buildings,” S&amp;S Projects said.

The Boundary Street site gave <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a> a different set of conditions to work with.&nbsp;

“Our design brief was to design a building that took advantage of its unique elevated corner siting offering a range of spectacular view corridor opportunities,” Cottee Parker said.

“The design had to reinforce the strong brand pillars of S&amp;S which are quality, luxury and superior resident amenity.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140491 project_image_fid=284543]

Cottee Parker responded with a sculptural floorplate and strong horizontal banding, with continuous balconies and landscaped planters wrapping the building. Operable screens along the balcony edges allow residents to manage light and shade while creating an additional layer of pattern across the facade.

The tower rises above a heavily landscaped podium incorporating the entry lobby and recreational level, while the broader architectural expression takes cues from Rainbow Bay's coastal environment through its organic forms and light material palette.

Cottee Parker says the design has also been developed to complement S&amp;S Projects’ three previous Rainbow Bay developments while retaining its own architectural identity.

Inside, the residences continue that coastal response through two interior schemes centred on warm timbers and neutral tones, alongside patterned natural stone and fluted detailing.

Floor-to-ceiling sliding glass doors connect open-plan living areas to wraparound balconies, while natural stone is used across benchtops, splashbacks and bathroom walls. Specifications also include light-washed timber flooring, gas fireplaces, integrated bar and wine fridges, freestanding stone baths and 100 per cent wool carpet.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140491 project_image_fid=284559]

Cottee Parker Director Sandra Brown said the intention was to create an architectural response closely connected to its surroundings.

“Imagine architecture that breathes with the rhythm of nature, where every curve and line flows seamlessly – creating spaces that dance with the elements, where sunlight kisses every surface and the gentle sea breeze fills every space,” Brown said.

The lessons S&amp;S Projects carried into Radia also extend to its resident amenity, with a substantial collection of shared facilities planned for just 38 residences.

A dedicated Residents Club will include a lap pool and spa, gymnasium, ice bath, sauna, steam room and hot rocks sauna. A residents' lounge, private dining room, outdoor dining and barbecue area and business centre are also planned, along with storage and dedicated surfboard and beach lockers.

S&amp;S Projects Founding Director Paul Gedoun said the facilities were also designed around the project's Rainbow Bay setting.

“Each amenity is designed to capitalise on the lifestyle of Rainbow Bay, ensuring residents can enjoy the relaxed coastal experience the enclave is famous for,” Gedoun said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140491 project_image_fid=284555]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a> says purchasers to date have predominantly included local downsizers, interstate lifestyle investors and families, alongside a strong contingent of repeat S&amp;S purchasers.&nbsp;

According to the project sales team, feedback has centred on the natural stone and joinery, generous floorplans, natural light and the ability for residences to capture views in multiple directions. The completed Flow, Awaken and Esprit developments have also provided prospective purchasers with an existing reference point for S&amp;S Projects' delivery in Rainbow Bay.

There has also been interest from high-profile surfers and people connected to the surf community, with the elevated building providing outlooks towards several of the area's recognised surf breaks.

Radia continues S&amp;S Projects' concentration of development in a tightly held part of the southern Gold Coast, close to Rainbow Bay Beach, Snapper Rocks, Duranbah Beach, Greenmount Beach and the Tweed River. The neighbourhood also includes a growing collection of hospitality venues, while Coolangatta Airport provides connections beyond the southern Gold Coast.

Hutchinson Builders is now delivering Radia, continuing the project from early works privately funded by S&amp;S Projects. The $250 million development is expected to reach completion in the third quarter of 2027.

“With our history in Rainbow Bay, we have been fortunate to be heavily involved in how the development landscape has unfolded and this project slides into the property landscape comfortably and will feel like it was always there,” the developer said.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=140491]

How three Rainbow Bay projects shaped S&S Projects' fourth, Radia

Nearly 40 years after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sheida-group">The Sheida Group</a> began working on the northern Gold Coast, the family-owned developer is continuing its involvement in Hope Island with Marina Point Apartments, where apartment scale has been a central part of the development.

Across the 235-apartment waterfront community, the developer has prioritised larger floorplans, substantial open space and marina access, responding to a purchaser base that has predominantly comprised local owner-occupiers and downsizers moving from larger homes.

"Having already delivered Anchorage nearby, we also understood this particular market and how people live here," developer Rick Sheida said.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marina-point-apartments-hope-island-66-view-line-terrace-hope-island-qld-4212">Marina Point&nbsp;Apartments</a> gave us the opportunity to build on those lessons and create the next evolution of our work in Hope Island."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136992 project_image_fid=293151]

The Sheida Group acquired the Marina Point land around 2018. Its appeal, Sheida says, went beyond having a waterfront address.

"What attracted us was not simply that the site was waterfront, but the way it meets the water," he said.

"It sits at the junction of broad waterways, creating long sightlines, changing views and a sense of movement throughout the day. Its shape also allowed us to orient the buildings outward, improve privacy between residences and make better use of natural light and breezes."

The buildings have subsequently been positioned around the perimeter of the site, allowing most apartments to take in water views while others look across the resort amenity or hinterland. Once all four buildings are complete, approximately one hectare of the site is expected to remain as open space.

The waterfront also provides the potential for up to 50 marina berths, with berths ranging from 15 to 24 metres and options designed to accommodate wider vessels including catamarans. Access from the marina to the Gold Coast Seaway is bridge-free.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136992 project_image_fid=293149]

The developer says purchasers to date have predominantly been owner-occupiers and downsizers from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marina-point-apartments-hope-island-66-view-line-terrace-hope-island-qld-4212">Hope Island</a> and elsewhere on the Gold Coast, generally aged between 45 and 70. Many have sold larger family homes or properties requiring significant upkeep.

That purchaser profile informed a design brief centred on retaining the space and functionality of a larger home within an apartment format.

"Many of our buyers are coming from large, well-appointed homes in Sanctuary Cove and the surrounding area," the project team said.

"They are accustomed to generous spaces and thoughtful design, so it was important that the apartments delivered the same sense of comfort and functionality.

"Every room needed to feel well proportioned, every space needed a clear purpose and nothing could feel compromised."

Residences range from 139 sqm through to 319 sqm penthouses, with two car spaces provided to apartments and three to penthouses. Minimum 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, entertainer's kitchens with butler's pantries, substantial storage and balconies ranging from 18 sqm to 37 sqm further reflect the emphasis on space.

One purchaser from Sanctuary Cove has taken the concept further, combining two of Marina Point's largest apartments to create a 552 sqm residence with raked ceilings reaching up to 4.5 metres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136992 project_image_fid=293155]

With Building 1 now complete, the developer is also seeing its original design assumptions tested against purchaser feedback.

Three completed display residences allow prospective purchasers to compare apartment sizes, layouts, finishes and outlooks in person. The sales team says one of the most consistent responses has been to the scale of the apartments, with visitors describing them as feeling more like homes than conventional apartments.

The first stage of resident amenity is also operational, including a 25-metre heated lap pool, Technogym-equipped gym, infrared sauna, golf simulator and yoga room. Future facilities are set to include a resort-style pool and spa, waterfront barbecue area and a residents' lounge with a library, fireplace, pool table, kitchen and bar.

Rather than treating the four buildings independently, the design brief called for a complete waterfront neighbourhood, balancing private residences with landscaping, open space, marina access and shared amenity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136992 project_image_fid=293152]

For Sheida, Marina Point Apartments is ultimately an extension of the developer's longer-term involvement in Hope Island and its view of how the suburb is evolving.

"We were equally interested in the long-term future of Hope Island," he said.

"Its position between Brisbane and the central Gold Coast gives residents access to both, while improving transport connections are making the northern Gold Coast increasingly attractive as a permanent place to live."

Hope Island Marketplace is 1.3 kilometres from Marina Point, while Sanctuary Cove and Paradise Point are within six kilometres. Links Hope Island, The Pines and The Palms golf courses are also nearby, and the new Hope Island train station is under construction around five kilometres from the development.

Building 2 is under construction, with completion scheduled for 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136992]

Marina Point Apartments continues The Sheida Group's 40-year Hope Island story

Sydney-based fund manager and developer EG is seeking to turn part of the former Roche pharmaceutical campus in Cromer into a 130-home residential community, introducing a mix of low-rise apartments, townhouses and duplexes to the tightly held Northern Beaches market.

The SJB-designed masterplan has been prepared for the 3.2-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/100-south-creek-road-cromer-nsw-2099">100 South Creek Road</a>, part of the former Roche landholding that EG acquired for $55 million in 2017 through its Yield Plus Infrastructure Fund No. 2.

EG is proposing what SJB describes as a new "urban village" set within the site's significant existing tree canopy.

<img alt="Cromer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="482c9a58-49f1-4c53-a12e-aaa02336229f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-24%20at%2011.20.57%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=hZP8_XfPnfNq500dbcjlpVwYU1ebhF9_" />

Around three hectares of the site is considered developable, with the balance incorporating a riparian corridor that would be rehabilitated and revegetated as part of the proposal.

The indicative masterplan comprises approximately 72 apartments in low-rise residential buildings and another 58 townhouses and duplexes.

The apartment component would include around five one-bedroom, 37 two-bedroom and 30 three-bedroom residences, while the townhouse and duplex component would be spread across several different housing typologies. The overall scheme would deliver around 19,500 sqm of gross floor area at an FSR of 0.6:1.

Parking for the apartment component is currently estimated at around 112 resident spaces and 14 visitor spaces, while the townhouse and duplex component would have 116 resident and 12 visitor spaces.

A significant part of the masterplan revolves around retaining the established landscape character of the former Roche campus.

SJB's plans show heavily treed setbacks along both Campbell Avenue and South Creek Road, a centrally located collection of significant native and exotic trees retained as communal open space, and the regeneration of the northern bushland area.

The existing creek corridor along the site's western edge would also be rehabilitated and revegetated, creating additional separation between the new homes and the neighbouring Northern Beaches Business Park.

A heritage-listed cottage and its garden setting would be retained and restored, with SJB flagging its potential adaptive reuse as communal space.

The proposal also includes new communal recreation areas, pedestrian connections to Campbell Avenue and South Creek Road, and a contribution toward improvements to the adjoining Michele Reserve.

Vehicular access would be restricted to South Creek Road, with no vehicle entry proposed from Campbell Avenue. The main internal road would largely follow the site's existing driveway to minimise the impact on established trees.

SJB said residential redevelopment presented an opportunity to retain the majority of the site's heritage-listed mature trees while delivering a broader range of housing types than typically seen across the Northern Beaches.

"The site being 3.27 hectares in area represents one of the largest vacant sites in common ownership in the Cromer and Dee Why area capable of residential renewal," SJB noted in the masterplan.

The architect said the proposal would particularly target housing diversity through townhouses and other "missing middle" typologies suitable for singles, young families, downsizers and retirees.

<img alt="Cromer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e3f5d841-8491-427e-8ada-c70d3d03d6bc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-24%20at%2011.21.02%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=xTV7r.q8lrTzC9vKzMS9zMbjm9wKwhgm" />

The site emerged following the subdivision of the former Roche campus into eastern and western parcels.

EG has already transformed the western portion into the Northern Beaches Business Park, which incorporates heritage-listed office space, modern warehouses and indoor recreation facilities.

The proposed residential community, referred to as Cromer East in SJB's plans, adjoins established housing to the north, east and south-east, while the business park sits beyond the creek corridor to the west.

It is also within 250 metres of Pittwater House School and Northern Beaches Secondary College, while bus stops within a three-to-five-minute walk provide connections to Dee Why, Brookvale and express services to the Sydney CBD. Cromer Park and the South Creek open space corridor are also nearby.

EG acquired the broader 7.5-hectare former Roche campus in 2017 for $55 million through its Yield Plus Infrastructure Fund No. 2. The campus at the time comprised more than 25,000 sqm of industrial and office buildings set within landscaped grounds.

The current residential site represents the eastern portion of that original holding.

EG's investment strategy for the fund has centred on acquiring income-producing real estate with longer-term rezoning and repositioning potential, particularly assets benefiting from infrastructure and changing land-use patterns.

EG also has an established residential track record across Sydney, including Bosco in Five Dock, Tempo in Drummoyne, The Flour Mill in Summer Hill and Pindari in Randwick.

The developer says it has delivered more than 1,000 homes to date, with a further 3,000-plus residences across its development pipeline.

First look: EG plans 130 apartments on former Roche pharmaceutical campus in Cromer

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
December 2016 saw capital city dwelling values rise by 1.4%, taking the annual capital gain for 2016 to 10.9%; the highest growth rate for a calendar year since 2009.
Factoring in gross rental yields and capital gains, housing as an asset class, earned a total annual return of 14.7% based on the combined capital cities index results.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the annual change in dwelling values for 2016 ranged from -4.3% in Perth to 15.5% in Sydney, with Melbourne and Hobart also showing annual capital gains higher than 10%.
Capital city growth rates have also shown a growing divergence between the broad housing product types.
Over the past twelve months we have seen capital city house values rise by 11.6%, while unit values have increased by roughly half the pace at 5.9%.
The divergence in growth rates is the most distinct in Melbourne and Brisbane, where concerns around unit oversupply have eroded buyer confidence.
Melbourne house values are up 15.1% over the year compared with a 1.7% rise in unit values, while Brisbane house values are 4.0% higher over the year, with unit values falling by -0.2%.
Australia’s regional housing markets generally did not experience the same growth conditions as the capital cities, with annual growth to November recorded at 2.8% across the combined regional markets. Regional New South Wales showed the strongest growth conditions, with non-capital city house values rising 7.3% over the 12 month period to November 2016.
The remaining rest-of-state regions showed relatively sedate conditions, with values rising by half a per cent across regional Victoria, 1% across regional Queensland and 1.1% across regional South Australia. Regional Western Australia recorded a 7% fall in house values over the year. Those regional areas with intrinsic ties to the mining and resources sector have continued to record weaker housing market conditions since the end of the mining infrastructure boom, with Perth and Darwin recording the weakest housing market conditions across the capital cities.
Since values peaked in these markets during 2014, values have fallen by a cumulative 7.9% in Perth and 5.9% in Darwin.
More recently both these markets have shown signs of moving through the low point of their respective downturns, with values rising by 2.8% and 5.9% respectively over the final quarter of 2016.
Based on the annual housing market results, it is clear that housing markets across Australia have responded to regional differences in economic and demographic trends; strong population growth and economic activity have driven value growth in Sydney and Melbourne, however, more recently strong growth trends have spread to Hobart and Canberra, as well as many of the coastal and lifestyle markets where values are now also rising swiftly.
Post Global Financial Crisis, the CoreLogic index results show that Sydney’s dwelling values have almost doubled, rising by 97.5% since January 2009, whilst Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 83.5% over the same time frame.
Every other capital city has seen dwelling values rise at substantially lower rates over this period, highlighting just how strong the Sydney and Melbourne housing market conditions have been over the past eight years.
Sydney-siders saw dwelling values increase by approximately $10,000 per month over the past year, creating a significant boost in wealth for home owners; at the same time we’ve seen mounting affordability challenges for aspiring home owners.
The recent CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report shows Sydney dwelling prices were 8.3 times higher than annual household incomes and households were dedicating an average of 44.5% of their income to service a mortgage (based on an 80% loan to valuation ratio and the average discounted variable mortgage rate).
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

2016 dwelling value growth rates divergent even within the same capital city: Corelogic's Tim Lawless

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<div>A couple of things happened in 2016 that changed the outlook for interest rates in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Swaps had been seeking out lower and lower rates, yet fairly abruptly around September time someone or something called time on that particular party.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, what happened?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wasn't that the economy suddenly became stronger. Hardly! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, GDP growth was actually negative for the third quarter of the calendar year, while employment growth went backwards in the months of both August and September too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And all measures of inflation are actually below the target 2 to 3 per cent range. Then, what? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Change of Governor</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While we should be wary of imposing simplistic narratives over historical trends (with hindsight giving the supposed benefit of 20/20 vision), it appears that the change in Reserve Bank Governor may have been a factor.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the month of September, Philip Lowe began suggested that interest rate cuts are losing their power, and seemed to infer that further cuts would only be delivered reluctantly, if at all.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From the first meeting he chaired in the first week of October, the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-26" target="_blank">wording</a> of the Monetary Policy Statement concluded that policy was consistent with growth and inflation returning to target over time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the day of that October meeting, 6-month OIS rates have trended only in an hawkish direction, from 1.42 per cent back up to 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
 
The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a duty to "keep consumer price inflation in the economy to 2 to 3 per cent, on average, over the medium term", apparently implying no immediate need to cut rates.
<div> </div>
<div>Trump bump</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The other significant event in 2016 was Donald Trump's election victory in the US, which promptly changed the inflation outlook.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's bond yields had already starting ticking back up before Trump's election triumph, with the yield on government bonds with a 10-year maturity recovering from a low of just 1.83 per cent in August to 2.31 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But then, after an initial post-election blip, the 10-year bond yield increased sharply to 2.87 per cent, before settling down a bit to finish the year at 2.78 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/RBA5.jpg" alt="">
<div> </div>
<div>Easy, tiger!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through November the indicative standard variable rate (SVR) for owner-occupier mortgages was 5.25 per cent, although of course by shopping around you can get much better deals than this (the indicative discounted rate was reported at 4.50 per cent, for example). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reported 3-year fixed rates for both owner-occupiers and investors were lower again at 4.10 per cent and 4.25 per cent respectively. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Can you comfortably afford to repay a mortgage in a 6% or even 7% scenario?: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A lot has been made about a first home buyer 'strike' over recent years, but the NAB survey and others have shown that often young people are choosing investment property as their first step onto the ladder. 
As such, the share of the market comprising first time buyers hasn't really changed all that much.
Mentioned far more rarely (or more like never) is that with most people doing things later in life than used to be the case, relatively speaking there just haven't been that many people in the key age bracket to buy their first home either.
This is especially so given that the average first timer is likely to be in their 30s these days, at least in the main capital cities.
This trough in Australia's demographic waves might have been one of the more convincing parts of the bear case for the housing markets in recent years, but in the end policy makers opted to sidestep the potential wipeout by cutting interest rates to record lows.
It largely worked by drawing more investors into the froth rather than through pulling forward demand.
In surfing terminology, we've been in a demographic trough for a long period, but it seems that the swell is now beginning to build.
 The next wave
It's probably not for a few years yet that the number of persons in the 31 to 40 age bracket reaches a critical mass that might be considered compelling.
Yet the demographic statistics figures for the quarter ended June 2016 showed that finally things are beginning to move in that direction, with a significant 2% leap in this cohort during the financial year. 
Between now and 2026 the number of persons in this age bracket is <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/making-waves-in-aussie-housing-market" target="_blank">projected to swell dramatically</a>.
Looked at graphically, you can see the trough in the 31 to 40 age bracket becoming emphatic over the last decade. However, the red line shows that the housing market is just beginning reaping the benefits of the ramped up immigration programme (which is tilted heavily towards immigrants aged under 30). 
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bG2S6vRWaqw/WGKN-skn54I/AAAAAAAAg9U/LyJnpIggbCQXm_zF8onwT6DyBNxw2KShACLcB/s640/B1.jpg">
Looked at another way, after mostly treading water for years the number of 31 to 40 year old residents jumped by more than 118,000 in the last 24 months, with hundreds of thousands more to come in a demographic wave between now and 2026.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PAd8lrtsER0/WGKN9ApG3OI/AAAAAAAAg9Q/3OLVLyzixG83SULWl4fj47n9dxivwpD0wCLcB/s640/B2.jpg">
This is important because although individual choices differ and trends shift over time, in aggregate people tend to do quite predictable things at fairly predictable stages in their lives. 
Variations around the traps 
The bureau's figures showed that although Australia's population is expected to age in a similar way to other developed nations due to a combination of longer life expectancy and lower fertility rates, the immigration programme helped to keep the median age steady at 37 years over the 2016 financial year.
What is clear from analysing the figures, however, is that the states and cities with stronger economies and employment prospects generally have more a favourable demographic outlook than those with rising or elevated unemployment rates.
For example, Tasmania's median age has spiked sharply from 35 to 42 years over the last two decades, as younger adults have chosen the path of interstate migration to the mainland in search of gainful employment.
And while some states saw solid growth in their working age population in 2016, including New South Wales (+1.0%) and Victoria (+1.7%), both Tasmania and the Northern Territory saw their working age populations decline.
The wrap
The picture is quite mixed around the states and cities, but projections show that over the next decade there will be more than three quarters of a million extra persons in the 31 to 40 age bracket, a huge demographic wave to drive new entrants into the housing markets.
That's not to say other cohorts won't expand too - in fact, the total population is projected to expand by a record 4.4 million over the next decade to 28.5 million - but the number of potential new entrants may possibly be the most important driver of demand.
For some reason it's only just dawning on people how population growth will impact traffic congestion in the largest cities.
As a result of this the next big run on housing markets is likely to be towards certain inner suburban locations with transport links at the expense of outer suburbia where infrastructure and jobs are sparse. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
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The huge demographic wave to drive new entrants into the housing market: Pete Wargent

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The $300 million Australian Pub Fund run by John Singleton, Geoff Dixon and Mark Carnegie has sold three Sydney hotels.
The off-market sales totalled a combined $47 million.
The Feros family's JDA Hotels bought the Peakhurst Inn in Sydney's southern suburbs for $22.5 million in a deal negotiated by Andrew Jolliffe of Ray White Hotels.
The Bristol Arms on Sussex Street in Sydney and the Como Hotel in the Sutherland Shire were sold to the family-run Oscars Hotel Group for $19.5 million and $5.6 million respectively, in deals negotiated by JLL Hotels &amp; Hospitality Group's John Musca.
The prices offered for all three pubs were at cap rates below 8%, Geoff Dixon, the former CEO of Qantas told The Australian Financial Review.
APF will soon begin on-market campaigns to sell Newtown's Marlborough Hotel and Kinselas in Surry Hills, with expectations of about $60 million - more than double what they were acquired for by the fund.
Kinselas enjoys strong food and beverage patronage. It also has 30 gaming machines that contribute more than $3 million in annual revenue.
"Capital continues to find its way to the sector where a 400-500 basis point spread still exists between sustainable earnings and the cost of debt. This is an attractive proposition for not just experienced operators but increasingly syndicators as well," Musca said.
The Lone Pine Tavern in Rooty Hill was sold in December by the Feros family after being marketed with expectations above $30 million.
Also in December, Merivale boss Justin Hemmes paid $37.05 million for The Tennyson Hotel in Sydney's south.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/12/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-02%20at%2011.54.15%20AM.png" alt="">
The Tennyson, whose design is illustrative of a Sidney Warden-designed inter-war functionalist structure, fetched a record hammer price for hotels. 
The Ray White Hotels Asia Pacific director Andrew Jolliffe listed the top 100 gaming property, The Tennyson Hotel at Mascot.
Set on Botany Rd, the Tennyson Hotel is a popular hotel with 30 gaming machines.
"Notwithstanding the latest ranking at 87 in NSW, the hotel requires an upgrade," Jolliffe advised. 
The leading hotel architect Paul Kelly has designed a renovation which has DA approval for the vendor John Feros of JDA Hotels.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/12/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-02%20at%2011.53.59%20AM.png" alt="">
The hotel, even in its currently unrenovated state, attracts in excess of $8 million in annual receipts from predominantly high gross profit margin revenue centres.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Kinselas next hotel to be sold by Singo's Australian Pub Fund

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Varying from state to state, another factor contributing to the high entry cost to housing is stamp duty, particularly in Australia’s largest two capital cities.
Levied by each state and territory and payable by the receiver when a property is transferred, stamp duty varies remarkably across the states and territories based on the price of the property, the type of buyer (owner occupier / first home buyer / investor) and the type of property. 
Calculating how much stamp duty is applicable on a property purchase can be confusing due to the significant differences regionally, but also due to the complexity of rules, concessions and limits that are applied to the calculation of stamp duty.
Based on the median dwelling value across each capital city, stamp duty estimates can range from a whopping $32,680 in Melbourne to a modest $9,000 in Brisbane.
Even though the median dwelling value is $200,000 higher in Sydney compared with Melbourne, the cost of stamp duty on the median valued home is actually slightly lower in Sydney, at $31,763, due to higher stamp duty rates in Victoria.
In some states, first-time home buyers can be offered substantial concessions on stamp duty; however there is generally an upper limit. 
For example, first home buyer property transactions in Victoria with a price tag of $600,000 or less will enjoy a 50% reduction on their rate of stamp duty. 
In Queensland, first home buyers purchasing a property priced less than $550,000 can realise a discount of more than $8,000.
Stamp duty rates can also be higher for investors.
Surprisingly, New South Wales, which is the state with the largest proportion of investors, does not charge a premium rate of stamp duty on this segment of the market.
The three largest states also charge a stamp duty premium on property purchasers by foreign buyers.
Because stamp duty costs are percentage based, as dwelling values move higher, stamp duty costs can rise disproportionately faster due to bracket creep. 
Over the past five years dwelling values in these two cities have increased by 62% and 38% respectively which implies at least a commensurate rise in stamp duty costs in these cities.
The high transactional costs associated with housing are likely to be one factor that is contributing to a slowdown in the number of sales across the country.
While stamp duty is generally the largest transactional cost associated with buying, there are other costs such as building and pest inspections, conveyancing, removalists and more that also need to be factored in and are likely to be dampening participation in the housing market. 
Add to this the fact that most lenders will be seeking a 20% deposit and the barriers to entry become even more substantial.
For state governments, stamp duty is one of the largest revenue sources. 
In the 2014-15 financial year, state and local government taxation revenue was recorded at $89.278 billion having increased by 7.0% over the year. 
The taxation revenue was comprised of $45.203 billion or 50.6% from property related taxes (mostly stamp duty and municipal rates). 
While total tax revenue increased 7.0% over the year, property tax revenue increased by 10.5% highlighting that property taxes are the largest source of taxation revenue for state and local governments and are rising at a rapid pace.
If transaction numbers across the housing market continue to trend lower, state governments are likely to encounter a budget hole as stamp duty revenue falls.  
For this and associated reasons, we may find state governments become more serious about considering a broader based land tax that is applicable to all property owners rather than a stamp duty that is payable only across the small percentage of properties that transact each year.
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia.
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Stamp duty a significant cost barrier for Sydney and Melbourne housing markets: Tim Lawless

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ASX listed Tian An Australia Limited has purchased an Enfield townhouse site in Sydney's inner west.
The 4 Mitchell Street site comprises 12,600 square metre.
It currently houses an office building and warehouse.
CBRE’s Peter Vines, Victor Sheu and Nick Tuxworth sold the property on behalf of non-profit organization, Vision Australia, for $35 million.
It attracted 26 expressions of interest from local, national and overseas property developers.
“We were expecting around $28 million for the property but the result at $35 million further underpins the need for quality residential development sites, especially in markets with little competing stock,” Vines said.
Vision Australia will stay in the property until late 2017, allowing time to decide where to relocate.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Vision Australia sells Enfield residential development site for $35 million

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Cbus Property has now leased more than 40% of its $1.25 billion Collins Arch development at 447 Collins Street.
Its latest deal for almost 20,000 square metres including a third tenant for the mixed-use precinct.
Top 10 Australian law firm Gadens has secured 5,000 square metres of NLA commercial space over levels 11-13, equating to just over 10% of the 49,000 square metres available.
More than 40% of the leasing space is now committed, with Gadens joining King &amp; Wood Mallesons (KWM) and HWL Ebsworth.
KWM secured 8300 square metres across levels 23 to 27 in June, with HWL Ebsworth securing 6500 square metres across levels eight to 10 in October.
The commercial space lies in the western tower of Collins Arch.
The development will also house a five-star hotel in the eastern tower with a luxury residential component above crowned by two luxury penthouses and resident amenity linking the dual towers across Melbourne’s first sky bridge.
Taking up the entire city block between Collins Street, Williams Street, it has been designed by Woods Bagot and SHoP Architects.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/Cbus%20Property_Collins%20Arch_view2.jpg" alt="">
Colliers national director of office leasing Andrew Beasley said the 447 Collins St address resonated internationally.
”The view south across Melbourne’s Yarra River and Port Phillip Bay and Collins Street-facing northern vista are just part of what makes Collins Arch a major drawcard,” Beasley said.
Construction has commenced on <a href="https://www.collinsarch.com" target="_blank">Collins Arch</a>, with completion due in 2019.
Expressions of interest are currently being accepted for both commercial leasing and the luxury residential apartments, including two sky bridge penthouses.
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Collins Arch, Melbourne signs up third law firm office tenants

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The Coles supermarket in the NSW Southern Highlands town of Moss Vale has been sold to MPG Funds Management for $9.45 million.
Located at 13-19 Kirkham Street, the property comprises a 2,500 square metre freestanding Coles supermarket – the only full line supermarket servicing the catchment.
The property, which is situated on a 7,199 square metre strata title site, is currently leased to Coles until 2025, generating an estimated income of $561,547 per annum.
CBRE’s Justin Dowers and Nick Willis, who negotiated the sale on behalf of a private Victorian investor, said the sale reflected one of the strongest freestanding supermarket transactions in New South Wales this year translating to a yield of 5.9%.
MPG Funds Management’s Brett Gorman said the property’s strong tenancy profile presented an attractive addition to the MPG Retail Brands Property Trust, which targets well-known tenants on long term leases.
The sale follows the recent transaction of Dan Murphy’s in Wagga Wagga through CBRE on a 5.3% yield to a private Sydney based investor.
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Coles in Moss Vale sells for $9.45 million

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Whether or not we end up in surplus in five years’ time, <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/myefo/html/" target="_blank">yesterday’s Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO)</a> exposes nasty political problems for the Turnbull government in the here and now.
Real GDP growth for 2016-17 has been sensibly but shockingly revised down to 2% – the lowest outcome since the global financial crisis, the second lowest in 16 years and the third lowest since the long upswing began in 1991/92. Sensible, because we know, from the third-quarter GDP numbers and other indicators this year, that the upswing in residential investment has peaked before (and perhaps well before) an upswing in business investment has begun.
Shocking, because if labour productivity continues to run a little above 1% – as it has for the last four years – the implied growth in employment of 1% or so will probably not be enough to stop unemployment rising. The MYEFO projects the unemployment rate in the June quarter next year at 5.5% – lower than today and lower than the average of 5.8% over the last four years.
Yet, at 2.6% year average GDP, growth in those four years has been markedly stronger than the 2% MYEFO now projects for 2016-17. Even with the projected decline in the participation rate, the MYEFO unemployment forecast will be a struggle.
Disappointing GDP growth is political problem number one for Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison. Problem number two is the implacable persistence of substantial federal deficits.
These deficits limit the government’s response to problem number one. In 2012-2013 government receipts were 23.0% of GDP, payments 24.0% of GDP, and the deficit 1.2% of GDP. Labor lost office a little over nine weeks after the end of that fiscal year.
In these latest projections for the 2016-17 Budget, four years on from 2012-2013, receipts are expected to be 23.3% of GDP, payments 25.2% of GDP and the deficit 2.1% of GDP. Compared to 2012-13, receipts have increased 0.3% of GDP, spending 1.2% of GDP and the deficit 0.9% of GDP. Receipts are up, but spending is up even more and so is the deficit.
There are plenty of reasons for this woeful fiscal performance, mostly to do with modest increases in profits and wages and the tax-minimisation policy of former Treasurer Peter Costello. But these reasons are not ones that square with Treasurer Morrison’s rhetoric, or which can any longer be laid at the door of the previous Labor government.
Nor does the MYEFO give any confidence that the troubles of the Turnbull government will soon be eased. The path to the return to surplus depends completely on increasing tax revenue.
Spending as a share of GDP is now, according to these MYEFO projections, locked in at 25.2% of GDP right through to the end of the forward estimates period (and beyond the next election) in 2019-20. The projected decline of the deficit arises only because tax receipts are expected to increase over that period by 1.6% of GDP.
A slow economy, a rising tax take, perhaps rising unemployment, and not much room to move. 2017 won’t be cheerful for the prime minister or treasurer – or for the rest of us.
John Edwards<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-edwards-89846"></a> is nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Adjunct Professor with the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy at <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873" target="_blank">Curtin University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-are-two-big-political-problems-buried-in-the-latest-budget-update-70595" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The two big political problems buried in the latest budget update: John Edwards

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The economic growth forecasts have undergone a number of revisions to reflect two major surprises since May, namely: conditions across the broader economy are weaker than anticipated; and commodity prices have spiked temporarily. The economic growth forecasts are optimistic in our view. Real GDP growth of 2.0% for 2016/17, downgraded from 2.50%, requires a quick return to solid growth, averaging 0.8% per quarter for the rest of the year. In addition, the medium-term economic projections err on the optimistic side. From 2018/19 to 2022/23 real GDP growth is assumed to be 3.0% each year, a little faster than potential, judged to be 2.75%. The thinking is that spare capacity is gradually absorbed, closing the output gap by the end of 2022/23. The terms of trade are projected to remain flat at around its 2005 level from 2019/20. Nominal GDP growth is assumed to be 5.50% over the long-run (described in a Treasury working paper in 2014 but not specifically mentioned in MYEFO). <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.36%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.36%20pm.jpg" alt=""> 1) The real GDP growth profile for the four years 2016/17 to 2019/20 is: 2.0% (downgraded by 0.50%); 2.75% (downgraded by 0.25%); 3.0% and 3.0%. The Australian economy began the 2016/17 financial year on a weak note, with output contracting by 0.5%, the sharpest quarterly decline since the GFC. 2) Nominal GDP growth profile is: 5.75% (upgraded by 1.50%); 3.75% (downgraded by 1.25%); 4.25% (downgraded by 0.75%); and 4.50% (downgraded by 0.50%). Notably, the size of the nominal economy is 1.0% smaller at the end of 2019/20 than assumed at budget time. Inflation and incomes are softer than anticipated reflecting the weaker conditions across the broader economy. 3) The terms of trade jumps a forecast 14% in 2016/17 (upgraded from 1.25%) on the spike in commodity prices, followed by a 3.75% decline in 2017/18 (downgraded from 0%) as commodity prices retreat to more sustainable levels. There is considerable uncertainty around the timing / speed of commodity price adjustments. The iron ore price is assumed to decline from its recent average of US$68 per tonne FOB through the March and June quarters of 2017 to reach $55 in September 2017. The budget assumed a year average price of $55. The coking coal price is assumed to be US$200 per tonne FOB in line with the December quarter contract price, before declining through the September and December quarters of 2017 to $120 in March 2018. The Budget year average price was $91. Thermal coal prices are assumed to remain at $62 per tonne FOB, up from $52 at budget time. 4) Labour market forecasts have been downgraded to reflect the soft start to the 2016/17 year. Employment growth has been lowered by 0.5% this year and 0.25% next year, while wages growth has been lowered by 0.25% this year and next. See table 2 below for details. <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.47%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.47%20pm.jpg" alt=""> The 2016/17 budget deficit forecast is effectively unchanged from that in May, while the cumulative deficit for the four years to 2019/20 has deteriorated by $10.3 billion (with net savings of $2.5 billion partially offsetting $12.8 billion in slippage due to the weaker forecasts). The medium-term projections have the budget returning to surplus in 2020/21, as assumed in May, although the size of the surplus has been trimmed from 0.2% of GDP to 0.1% of GDP. Policy decisions had little net impact on the budget position, with a net saving of $2.5 billion, back-loaded over the two out years. Revisions to the economic growth forecasts (including parameter variations more generally) cost the budget $12.8 billion over the four years, including a saving of $0.5 billion in the current year. Receipts are $30.5 billion lower than at Budget time over the four years, partially offset by a $16.5 billion undershoot on payments. Critically, as noted above, the size of the nominal economy at end 2019/20 is 1.0% smaller than assumed at Budget time. Of the $30.5 billion hit to receipts over the four years, key impacts include: individual income tax collections, down $18.3 billion due to weaker wage and employment outlook; company tax down $5.9 billion with weaker non-mining corporate profits only partially offset by higher mining profits from stronger commodity prices over 2016/17; and lower GST collections, down $5.3 billion.
On the payment side, weaker wages growth and lower inflation help to contain expenditure growth. <a href="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.58%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-19%20at%204.40.58%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Bill Evans is chief economist with Westpac.
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist with Westpac.
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