<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.</p>

<p>But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.</p>

<p>As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.</p>

<p>For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.</p>

<p>If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.</p>

<p>That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.</p>

<p>It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.</p>

<p>As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.</p>

<p>Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.</p>

<p>For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.</p>

<p>A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.</p>


The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.</p>

<p>Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.</p>

<p>A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" /></p>

<p>"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.</p>

<p>"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."</p>

<p>The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" /></p>

<p>Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.</p>

<p>The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.</p>

<p>"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."</p>

<p>"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."</p>

<p>Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.</p>

<p>HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.</p>


HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

<p>Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.</p>

<p>But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.</p>

<p>Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.</p>

<p>In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.</p>

<p>That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.</p>

<p>The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.</p>

<p>Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.</p>

<p>Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.</p>

<p>Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.</p>

<p>"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.</p>

<p>"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.</p>

<p>"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."</p>

<p>Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.</p>

<p>"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.</p>

<p>"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.</p>

<p>"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."</p>

<p>For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.</p>

<p>Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?</p>

<p>As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.</p>


What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Property developing can throw many different challenges at you and one thing I have learnt in this industry is there is always a solution to a problem.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> The trick is to understand what possible problems may arise and preparing yourself for them.  Unfortunately things don’t always go to plan and as a project manager it is up to us to make sure the development gets through as efficiently as possible.</span></p>
<p>One of the biggest areas for problems is not allowing enough for building works. </p>
<p>When pricing a development and running feasibilities, it is important to understand that your building estimate is an organic creature. By this I mean the building estimate you start with will nearly always be different to the one you end with.  It will evolve throughout the process as you obtain more and more details.  Once you have all the fine details, the building estimate can be finalised to the fixed price builder’s contract. </p>
<p>If architecturally designing our villas, we generally follow this process:</p>
<ol>
<li>Concept plan – this will show the number and size of villas on the land, but not much detail</li>
<li>Development Application (DA) plans – enough information is included on the plans to satisfy  council</li>
<li>Construction Certificate (CC) plans –more detail, including engineer drainage and slab design</li>
</ol>
<p>The starting point for our build estimate will be based on similar projects that we have recently completed and an allowance for the different site.</p>
<p>This progresses to an estimate based on the Concept Plan.  Still a very ‘loose’ estimate as there is usually not enough detail on the Concept Plan for the builder to have all information he needs.  The build estimate we have at this stage will tell us whether we are tracking within budget.  If not, we can make the necessary changes required, perhaps reducing the size of the villas working with both our builder and architect to design the right dwellings for our project to be successful.</p>
<p>Once the Concept Plan is approved, the architect will proceed to full DA plans.  It is here that much more detail is added and we will have our builder price the DA plans.  Again, this does not give us a final build cost but we will be getting closer to the expected outcome.  Once approved by our client, the DA plans are finalised and the DA is prepared.</p>
<p>During the DA process, council may request some changes to the plans, so it is important to understand we are still ‘evolving’ at this stage. We also need to review the Conditions of the DA Consent before we have more detail to finalise the build costs.</p>
<p>Once council have approved the DA, we will start to prepare the CC plans.  Engineers will be briefed and a drainage and engineered slab design or footings for the foundations will be produced. More detail is added to the CC plans, finalising levels and double checking schedules. </p>
<p>Before we lodge the CC plans with our private certifier we will have our builder issue a third costing. It is this costing that will give us the final build costs...well almost.  We still need to have the CC approved and ensure there are no further revisions to the plans required.  </p>
<p>After we have the CC stamped plans, our builder will issue their final tender and building contract. This will be a fixed price contract; however, there may still be a few items that will be ‘provisional’. They are usually some site works, removal of fill and retaining walls.  The builder may mark these items as provisional as they won’t know until works proceed exactly what the cost is. For instance, if rock is hit during the site cut, this will increase the site costs. If the site cut differs slightly to the plans, this may impact on the height of retaining walls.  So these ‘provisional’ items will be charged at actual cost whether it is lower or higher. Our clients often enjoy credits on their provisional items as it’s always best to over allow than under.</p>
<p>So you can see how the build estimate must evolve through the development process and until your development is completed, you really won’t know the exact cost.  It’s important you allow a contingency amount for any variations that may crop up along the way.  At Property Bloom we are happy to say that for many of our projects the end construction cost is lower than our original estimates. This is because our builder uses accurate allowances and because we’ve worked together for so long, we all understand what the cost is likely to be based on the typical, lower risk development sites we select for our clients.</p>
<p>As a developer, you will embark on a challenging journey from start to finish and the path you choose can be simplified with the help of a project manager to guide you along the way.  Always take the time to have full builder’s estimates done at each stage to avoid any nasty surprises. </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

Why construction costs evolve: Jo Chivers

<html><body>
<p><span>The list of the most exclusive suburbs in each state reiterates just how much more expensive real estate is in Sydney relative to the rest of the country.</span></p>
<p><span>Sydney is by far and away the nation’s most expensive housing market. To put this into some perspective we have looked at the top decile of selling prices over the three months to January 2016. A decile simply divides a group into ten equal parts. What this means is if there were 20 sales over the three months and we lined the sales up from lowest to highest we would take the 18th price as a representation of the most expensive segment of the market.</span></p>
<p><span>Over the three months to January 2016, the 90th percentile price of a house in the city was $1.5 million and the 90th percentile unit price was $980,000.  Over the same period, the two capital cities with the next highest 90th percentile house price was Melbourne at a still high but much lower $1,050,000.  This highlights just how much more expensive housing is in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne is relative to other capital cities.  As an example the next highest 90th percentile price is Perth at $870,000.</span></p>
<div>
<h3>90th percentile price of houses and units 3 months to January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There is also a large difference between the cost of premium housing in capital cities and non-capital cities.  The 90th percentile house price across the combined capital cities is $1,010,000 compared to $675,000 in combined regional markets.  Similarly, 90th percentile unit prices are $830,000 in the combined capital cities compared to $600,000 outside of the capitals.  This data points to the fact that non-capital city areas are the great un-tapped resource for more affordable housing.  Of course employment opportunities in these areas are the main factor holding back the regional areas of the country.</p>
<p>The table below highlights the five most expensive suburbs for both houses and units in each state.  The data is based on median values and we have only included suburbs that had at least 10 sales over the 12 months to January 2016.<br><br></p>
<h3>Suburbs with most expensive median values, January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Sydney premium becomes very evident when we look at the most expensive suburbs in each state based on median values.  The data shows the 5 most expensive suburbs for houses in NSW (all of which are in Sydney) all have a median value of more than $4 million.  In comparison, the most expensive suburbs for houses in Vic and WA are more than $3 million, in SA it is more than $2 million, in Qld, NT and ACT it is more than $1 million and in Tas it is less than $850,000.</p>
<p>Similarly for units, all of the 5 most expensive suburbs in NSW (Sydney) have a median values of more than $1 million.  Tennyson in Brisbane is the only other suburb outside of Sydney with a median unit value of more than $1 million.</p>
<p>There is a large premium for housing in our largest city.  Of course the city also has an abundance of waterfront homes which contributes to the higher overall cost of housing.  While employment opportunities remain significant in Sydney and employers limit the opportunities for workers to work remotely we would expect that a substantial Sydney premium will remain.  Elsewhere housing is generally much more affordable but of course not everyone has a choice when it comes to potentially leaving Sydney and heading to another area of the country where housing is cheaper.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney’s premium suburbs are much more expensive than anywhere else: Cameron Kusher

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<p>The list of the most affordable capital city suburbs in each state and territory highlights the dramatic difference in the cost of housing between the most affordable and most expensive capital cities.</p>
<div>
<p>When we are talking about affordable prices for capital city housing, Hobart is the location of choice with property prices much lower there than across the mainland capital cities.</p>
<p>To highlight this we have looked at selling prices for the bottom decile of homes over the three months to January 2016.  A decile simply divides a group into ten equal parts.  What this means is if there were 20 sales over the three months and we lined the sales up from lowest to highest we would take the 2nd price as a representation of the most affordable segment of the market.</p>
<p>Over the three months to January 2016, the 10th percentile price of a house across the combined capital cities was $315,000 and the 10th percentile unit price was $255,000.  Over the same period, the 10th percentile house price across the combined regional markets was $175,000 compared to $180,000 for units.  This again highlights that housing tends to be much more affordable outside of the capital cities.</p>
<h3>10th percentile price of houses and units <br>3 months to January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-29--img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-29--img1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br>Hobart has the lowest 10th percentile house and unit prices at $205,000 and $167,000 respectively.  Darwin is the second most affordable for houses at $229,000 and for units Adelaide is in second place with a price of $222,000.  At the other end of the spectrum, the 10th percentile house price is highest in Sydney and Darwin (both $430,000) and the unit price is highest in Sydney at $360,000.</p>
<p>The table below highlights the five most affordable capital city suburbs for both houses and units in each state.  The data is based on median values and we have only included suburbs that had at least 10 sales over the 12 months to January 2016.</p>
<h3>Suburbs with most affordable median values, January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-29--img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-29--img2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><br>The much more affordable nature of Hobart housing is evident when you look at the most affordable lists for each city, particularly for houses.  The five most affordable suburbs for houses in Hobart are all more affordable than the most affordable suburbs in each other capital city.  The data also highlights that housing costs in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra tend to be more expensive than the remaining capital cities.</p>
<p>For units, Adelaide suburbs actually have the most affordable suburbs and certain suburbs in Brisbane are also cheaper than those in Hobart where medium to high density development is less common.  On the other hand, unit values in the most affordable Darwin and Canberra suburbs are much higher than elsewhere.</p>
<p>The data shows that affordable housing options are available in most capital cities however, they tend to be located on the outskirts of the capital cities.  Of course Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane tend to have much more affordable housing options relative to the other capital cities.  Meanwhile, regional markets often offer up even more affordable housing alternatives.</p>
<p> <em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Hobart housing much more affordable than other capital cites

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<div><span>Sadly an inevitable consequence of the internet age for investors has been a focus on shorter and shorter timeframes. </span></div>
<div><span><br>While extra frequency of analysis can be interesting and fun, for most investors the best results will be secured by seeing the big picture and building a long term plan around it, particularly so in property investment which is ideally suited to a longer time horizon.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>When it comes to population and demographic projections, there are certainly plenty of cranks making forecasts, but if you're going to pay attention to any of them, then bugrudgingly it's got to be the cranks that determine policy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the short term to June 2019, the drivers of a rebound population growth from net overseas migration are clear enough, at least according to the latest available figures from the Department of Immmigration and Border Protection (DIBP). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">But what about for the longer term?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is often said that infrastructure investment is a key driver of property price growth, and this can certainly be the case whereby the multiplier effect of new projects generate economic activity, while infrastructure can also make certain suburbs a more appealing prospect. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, we have just been through a once-in-a-century resources investment boom, which temporarily caused a spike in dwelling prices in some towns, before they <a href="https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/news/14137-6-mining-towns-go-from-boom-to-bust" target="_blank">crashed</a> again as supply responded and contractors skipped town. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Infrastructure investment is evidently only one part of the puzzle, and it needs to be coupled with a strong and sustainable growth in population, economic activity, and household wealth. I'd further add land supply constraints to that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context I took another read of Infrastructure Australia's latest estimates and projections, so let's take a 60-second look at what they say. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Population a key driver of economic growth" </span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The "three Ps" model of economic growth applied by the Australian Treasury has population growth at its very core: </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In the 2015 Intergenerational Report population growth was assumed to drive for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">almost half</span></strong> of the projected economic growth, measured in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), over the next four decades.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Projected population figures quoted in April 2015 by the Infrastructure Australia audit background paper were somewhat higher than the equivalent figures released in 2008, and tend to mirror previous projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reasonably closely. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>Notably, it is clearly articulated that state governments are planning for their capital cities to continue taking on a continually greater share of the state's population, particularly in the most populous states.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As such, going forward an ever greater share of the actual population growth must correspondingly take place in the capital cities, as confirmed by the projections. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>These are telling numbers indeed, but for mine it's the texture provided by the Government that is the really interesting bit:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Population growth is likely to have its greatest impact in Australia’s cities. Around the globe, cities are increasing their share of national population. Australia is already one of the most urbanised countries in the world. It would be unusual – if not remarkable – if Australia were to chart a materially different path from its past (or where the world is heading), at least over the next 15 years or so."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Looking forward</span></span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>On the medium level projections, by 2031 Australia’s capital cities will be home to 6.4 million extra people (around 43.4 per cent more than 2011). The growth to 2061 (15.7 million persons) is around 1 million persons more than the current combined population of all of Australia’s capital cities.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Note in particular the enormous projected growth in Greater Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth respectively (click to enlarge).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Or looked at graphically.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looked at another way, the gradients of capital city projections show how the four largest cities are expected to garner the great bulk of the projected growth in population.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure plans and peri-urbanisation</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>Projected population growth between 2011 and 2031 is evidently huge - the equivalent of an entirely new Melbourne and Brisbane combined! - while t</span><span>he projected growth to 2061 is more than all of the existing population of the capital cities cobbled together.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>However, according to the Australian Government, regional development and decentralisation policies tend to have a short life span, and thus regional population growth is forecast to decline as a share of the pie:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>"It is unclear whether governments and the Australian community would support material ongoing interventions over the long term to encourage decentralised growth. P</span><span>roposals for investment in regional areas need to be supported by rigorous and transparent analysis."</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>A handful of areas which are close to the capital cities might be expected to grow appreciably, being "peri-urban" locations with social and economic linkages to the capital cities. These are cited as follows:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>Notes the Government: "In the absence of employment growth in these locations, ‘journey to work’ trips to and from the capital city may increase appreciably."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure investment: cities are critical</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The infrastructure audit background paper could hardly have been more explicit in its conclusions, so to wrap up I will simply quote it directly:</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Within the capital cities, the location of new development and population growth will be critical. While the cost of providing new infrastructure in ‘greenfield areas’ is substantial, the cost of retrofitting or augmenting some infrastructure (for example transport links in tunnels) in established areas can also be high. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>With a few exceptions, the population case for expanding infrastructure networks in regional areas is less obvious. Arguments for investment in infrastructure in those areas will be driven more by social considerations."</span><br><span><br></span>While I don't agree with the intended policy - I don't originally hail from a capital city myself after all - it is abundantly clear that infrastructure investment will be focussed very heavily on the capital cities. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth and infrastructure crucial for property price growth: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Victorian property market finished 2015 on a high with a record number of auctions held in November and December.</span></p>
<p>While median house price growth is expected to moderate this year, population increases, a robust economy and relatively low interest rates will encourage buyer interest in 2016. <br><br>In 2016 the REIV expects moderate growth across the city with further price increases in a range of suburbs in Melbourne’s inner, middle and outer rings.</p>
<p>Some suburbs to watch in 2016 are:<br><br><strong>WEST OF THE CBD</strong></p>
<p>Footscray - Close to the CBD and recorded double-digit growth in 2015. Footscray remains affordable given its location in Melbourne’s inner ring. Improving infrastructure and gentrification likely to result in solid long-term growth. <br>Median price: $780,000<br><br>Altona - Close to the CBD (13km) and to the bay and has seen double digit growth in 2015. Private sales market tightened in 2015 and clearance rate increased, despite listings being up 17 per cent. <br>Median price: $710,125<br><br>Sunshine - Still offers very affordable buying and is within 11km of the Melbourne city centre. Larger land blocks are proving attractive to both buyers and developers.<br>Median price: $530,000<br><br>Spotswood - Another inner west Melbourne suburbs which is poised for further growth in 2016. Despite listings increasing significantly in 2015, the median days on market fell 23 days and clearance rate improved 13 per cent.  Median house price remains well below the inner Melbourne median of $1,236,000.<br>Median price: $775,000<br><br><br><strong>NORTH OF THE CBD</strong><br><br>Preston – Has seen solid growth in recent months, reflected in strong private sales activity (median number of days on market declined seven days in 2015). Located within 10km of the CBD, Preston’s median house price remains well below the inner Melbourne median of $1,236,000.<br>Median house price: $815,000      <br><br>Epping – Located on the fringe of Melbourne’s middle ring, Epping recorded solid price growth in 2015, driven by a strong private sale market. Poised for further increases in the coming 12 months. <br>Median price: $432,750.<br><br><br><strong>EAST OF THE CBD </strong><br><br>Burwood East - A big growth area with extensive development underway at present. While the median house price is high, days on market continue to fall (down from 37 days in 2014 to 30 days in the past 12 months) showing increasing buyer interest.<br>Median price: $1,004m<br><br>Montrose – Has a relatively affordable median house price for those buying in Melbourne’s east and has shown good signs of capital growth in the past 12 months (up 10%). A significant drop in median days on market in 2015 (down 11 days to 19 days) has resulted in a strong private sales market.<br>Median price: $600,000<br><br>Mount Waverley - Experienced one of the highest median price increases of any Melbourne suburb in 2015, up more than 20 per cent, but should still see growth this year. Attractive to foreign investors and quality local schools (Mt Waverley Secondary College) are also proving to be a key driver for buyers. <br>Median price: $1.38m<br><br>Glen Waverley – Middle-eastern suburb which has been in the spotlight in 2015, and will continue in 2016. Given it is zoned for quality public school Glen Waverley Secondary College, buyer demand is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.  <br>Median price: $1.319m<br><br><strong>SOUTH OF THE CBD </strong><br><br>Seaford - Bayside and has experienced strong growth in the past six months. Like Sunshine, is also very affordable. Strong private sales activity and clearance rate. <br> Median price: $530,000<br><br>Chelsea - Close to the bay and with good transport to the CBD. Saw a strong private sale market and solid auction activity in 2015 as well as double-digit annual growth. Should be a solid year ahead.                </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Median price: $727,000</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>‎Enzo Raimondo is chief executive officer of <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/" target="_blank">The Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>.</em></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>{mijopolls 126}</span></p>
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12 Melbourne suburbs to watch in 2016: REIV's Enzo Raimondo

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<div>Futures markets have been assigning fully a 100 per cent chance of an interest rate cut by the second half of this calendar year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the ABS Lending Finance figures for November released recently suggested that low rates and a lower dollar may just be gaining a little more traction, with total lending increasing to a new trend high of $74.7 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total lending was some 20 percent higher than one year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/22/LF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/22/LF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Importantly, commercial lending picked up by a seasonally adjusted 1.1 per cent in the month, hinting at somewhat brighter news for Australian businesses, with business loans up by 23 per cent over the past year and revolving credit commitments up by 21 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arguably some of this additional lending might have been sparked by macroprudential measures taken to slow investment property loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If that is truly the case, then it was a kick up the backside that Australian banks and lenders surely needed. The alternative narrative may simply be that the lower dollar is gradually encouraging competitiveness and investment. Your call.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lending to owner-occupiers for housing purchases and construction continues to rise very strongly at the national level, trending up by 24 per cent over the year to a new high of $22 billion, although lending for major renovation activity has remained resolutely in the (unrenovated) doghouse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, personal finance lending continues to slide (except for cars!) to sit at 9 year lows, suggesting that consumers are behaving rather more cautiously.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/22/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/22/LF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor loans consolidate</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>I looked at the surprisingly strong November Housing Finance data last week <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/housing-finance-wallops-expectations" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Lending Finance release today provided more detail at the state level, and it revealed a moderate rebound in November investor lending in New South Wales ($4.8 billion), Victoria ($2.8 billion), Queensland ($1.6 billion), and South Australia ($0.4 billion). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looked at in rolling annual original terms, the chart will now begin to show that cooling macroprudential measures initiated by the regulator APRA have tamed the investor beast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available figures - as well as initial forays back into the investor market by banks such as AMP and Suncorp - imply that monthly investor lending may begin to track at around $11 to $12 billion per month, well down from the all-time record $14.2 billion we saw in April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/22/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/22/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>A cautionary word to be noted here is that in some markets the slowdown in investor lending has largely been matched with an increase in owner-occupier lending, suggesting that loan finance is seeking the path of least resistance.<br><br>
</div>
<div>To take the example of New South Wales, total November housing finance of $13.9 billion in original terms suggests that in aggregate lending has been fairly flat for the past five months, and is still up by 19 per cent from a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while investor loans are down by about 12 per cent over the year, owner-occupier lending has gone berserk to be up by 48 per cent over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/22/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/22/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>It is far from such a buoyant picture everywhere, however. With asking rents having tanked, investor loans are decelerating at an alarming pace in the Northern Territory, and this time around there may be no China-led commodities boost to save the day.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/22/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/22/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As such, all key indicators are pointing to a significant and arguably overdue correction in the Darwin property market.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Owner occupiers overtake investors: Pete Wargent

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<div>One of the occupational hazards of middle age is that from the mouths of babes can spout seemingly simple questions which are devilishly difficult to answer. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This troublesome issue was highlighted in a wittily observed <em>Bigpond</em> advert a decade or so ago, in which a hapless father answers to his curious son that the Great Wall of China was built by "Emperor Nasi Goreng...to keep the rabbits out."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The difficulty in answering an apparently straightforward question such as "how much money is there?" is twofold. Firstly, this is because the answer depends on what you mean by "money". And secondly since the money supply is a moving target, by the time you have scraped together a coherent answer more money will inevitably have been created. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">How much money is there?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For those of us with bank accounts today, generally we don't come in to direct physical contact with most of our money. Instead, we just see a number on a screen which changes daily.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the total there is more than $65 billion of currency and $250 billion of current deposits - for a total of just over $315 billion which is represented by the green line in the chart below and known as the "M1" measure of the money supply in circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's an arresting thought that in the years since I was born there is more than 30 times more M1 money knocking around in Australian circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Of course, as the above chart shows, the green line is only a small and increasingly insignificant part of the money supply, partly because today most of us use alternative forms of payment, including credit cards and EFTPOS.</span><br><br><span>The red line in the chart above (known as "M3") - which includes term deposits, certificates of deposit, and various other deposits from building societies and credit unions with banks - totals well over $1.8 trillion, the dollar value of M3 money in circulation having increased by more than 45 times over the same time period.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Adding the green shaded areas in the graphic above (currency and current deposits, or "M1") to the blue shaded areas (the aforementioned other deposits) gets us to "M3", while there is a broader measure of money still, which funnily enough is known as "broad money" - it includes certain other borrowings denoted by the red shaded area.<br><br>All up the money supply comprises $1.83 trillion of broad money in circulation.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Boiling frogs</span></strong><br><br><div>One thing that we all learn in childhood is that if something that a lot of people want is scarce, then it tends to go up in value. Unfortunately, however, the supply of money has been anything but scarce. </div>
<div>
<br>While 6.3% growth in M3 money over the past 12 months (following on from 8% in the preceding year) may not sound like all that much, due to the power of compounding these cumulative increases in the money supply have snowballed into an enormous expansion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This, of course, is why folk have tended not to leave large sums of money in their bank accounts earning low returns for too long, and often instead aim to invest in inflation-busting businesses, "hard assets" with intrinsic value such as gold and silver, or well-located residential property with a high land value component. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over time we expect the price of quality assets in high demand to appreciate, while the value of any associated debt is surprisngly quickly inflated away. Only one decade ago the broadest monetary aggregate ("broad money") showed $784 billion of money supply in circulation, an amount which has comfortably doubled and then some to $1.83 trillion today.<br><br>Summarily there is well over double the amount of money chasing a limited supply of desirable assets. These figures are in themselves powerful enough, but in truth even the money supply in circulation represents only one part of the tale.</div>
<div> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Credit where it's due</span></strong><br><br><div>The other part of the story is that of "credit", being loans, advances and bills discounted to the private sector (but excluding loans made to other financial intermediaries).<br><br>Note in the chart below the massive surge in credit growth following the deregulation of the financial system in 1983 which lasted all the way through until the early 1990s "recession we had to have".</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While there is not necessarily a link between the expansion of the broad money supply and growth in credit, the data over the long run suggests that a relationship between the two clearly exists, albeit a complex one.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As explained by a Bank of England research paper last year, the way in which most money is created in a modern economy is through banks making loans. When a bank creates a loan, it also creates a deposit in the borrower's bank account (and in turn it follows that if a bank lends me money to buy your house, then that after the settlement you will have more money in the form of a deposit).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus, contrary to what you might intuitively expect, deposits are not created by households saving income, but by banks creating money through loans, although of course there is ultimately a speed limit as to how much banks can lend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The above chart shows what has happened to the amount of "narrow credit" (a measure which excludes securitisations) sloshing around Australia since 1976, which is to say that it has expanded at an even more furious pace from $36 billion to nearly $2.4 trillion, thereby increasing by an astonishing factor of more than 66 times. </div>
<br><div>While back in the year I was born housing accounted for only 24% of ourstanding credit (refer to the red shaded areas in the chart below), today that figure has expanded to 61%, with housing credit growth continuing to outpace the growth in lending to businesses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>There are a number of identifiable reasons for this trend, but probably the most significant of these is simply that banks love to lend against housing - for even if you default on a mortgage you cannot easily take the house with you, and in any case the land that it sits on isn't going anywhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been many predictions of falling house prices over the last decade, but a bet against housing has essentially been a bet against the above chart, which shows that over the past ten years the stock of outstanding housing credit has more than doubled, from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, the price of all residential property has not increased as a result of this flood of credit. There is no scarcity of land in many mining regions, for example, and the demand for it has been declining in recent years, resulting in spectacularly crashing prices in many cases. Outer suburban Sydney property is now correcting sharply in some instances due to similar dynamics.<br><br>It would be true to say, however, that suburban land values in capital cites have generally been increasing strongly over time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The outlook for credit growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Onthe subject of speed limits, the regulatory body APRA recently decreed that it would like to see lenders growing their investor mortgage books at a pace of no faster than 10 per cent per annum, and for this reason we can expect to see banks instead pushing products in their largest and most profitable market sector, being owner-occupier housing credit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The private sector credit figures arguably represent one of the more significant indicators of what is happening in the domestic economy, and for this reason I analyse the data on this blog at the end of each calendar month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As I looked at in more detail at the end of last month the series showed that while commodity prices may be tanking over the year to September annual business credit growth moved up to a 79 month high of 6.3%, while housing credit growth had also accelerated to a 60 month high of 7.5%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now sure, 7.5% is certainly a lower level of growth for housing credit than we have seen in cycles past - mainly because we are starting from a higher base - yet if sustained it would be enough to more than double the stock of outstanding housing credit to beyond $3 trillion within the next decade, which is food for thought (gulp).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether or not banks can continue to expand owner-occupier credit growth will be one of the key housing market narratives to watch over through 2016. I'll analyse all the key figures here, of course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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How much money is there? Pete Wargent

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<p><span>It never ceases to amaze me just how little some “property experts” actually know about real estate machinations to the point they constantly make fools of themselves with dumb commentaries.</span></p>
<p><span>For example, one commentator earlier this week declared on Twitter “Auction clearance rates crumbling Melbourne 66.3% 2yr low Sydney another crash just 57.5% 3yr low” – well, that may be true as west of Sydney is performing badly. I then reminded him that I thought he is the worst property commentator in Australia. Last week, Sydney’s lower north shore recorded a bullish 80.4 % clearance rate up from 76.6 % the previous week – of course this was not mentioned.</span></p>
<p><span>It is also worth mentioning just like clockwork as soon as we hit the Melbourne Cup each year the market starts easing off which is exactly what we are presently witnessing – buyers are tired. Having said that, we will see property sales recorded right up to Christmas and what we are presently witnessing is no different to last year, the year before that and so on.</span></p>
<p><span>The common denominator is that we are seeing fewer properties on the market. In 2013 Mosman had 100 or more houses on the market in a given week on 33 occasions, in 2014 Mosman could only break the 100 mark on just 11 occasions. In 2015 it never made it to 100 with the highest being on March 12 with 84 and the lowest on July 2 with 42.</span></p>
<p><span>There are points that we need to make about many Sydney markets. Firstly, with Chinese buyers we have only just seen the “tip of the iceberg” where we expect in 2016 and beyond that they will be the main driving force behind Sydney property prices. We can also expect that the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will be pushed to the limit with overseas buying applications.</span></p>
<p><span>Six weeks ago I suggested that we were hearing that many investors both local and overseas were getting very nervous and now we hear that one in three off – the – plan buyers are in trouble. This is a major problem for Sydney’s newly created “investor market” as if these properties were to flood the markets prices would capitulate.</span></p>
<p><span>It will be most interesting going into 2016 to watch what strategy developers, and more particularly the banks funding these developments, decide to adopt. Will this see the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) forced into relaxing the newly introduced LVR’s? The off – the – plan feeding frenzy saw entire developments sold in a minimum of hours. Well I predict it will take months and months to see these properties find new owners. Will the developers offload apartments to parties that are already owners at discounted prices? That would be a sensible option to avoiding adverse publicity.</span></p>
<p><span>How many properties will the ATO force back onto the market in the form of Divestment Orders for parties that acquired real estate illegally? If this is as big as some believe (myself included) the Sydney property markets could not sustain these two forces combined – Divestment Orders and Off – The – Plan purchases.</span></p>
<p><span>We do need to be clear here in that the newly created “investors’ market” should not be confused with the homeowner markets – although some areas that contain these newly created high density developments will naturally affect the homeowner markets.</span></p>
<p><span>The absolute no-brainer here is when the Rudd government moved the ratio for overseas buyers buying off – the – plan from 50 % to 100 % in December 2008. This needs to be reduced back to 50 % as a matter of urgency.</span></p>
<p><span>Strange isn’t it how some want to bellow about clearance rates and others want to look at our property market machinations in greater detail. I know what I find the more interesting to discuss.</span></p>
<p><span>Historically when property markets start correcting then fewer properties go to public auction. Makes one ponder what some commentators would then be left to bellow about?</span></p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 114</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 74</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 65</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 76</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 71</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 14</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 13</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 15</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 31</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 16</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 8</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 36</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 33</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span> </span><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why off the plan can be a deadly market: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<p><span>There were a total of 249,133 residential properties available for sale across Australia as at the week ending 29 November 2015, with 110,884 capital city properties available for sale, indicating that total stock levels are -1.7% lower than last year across the combined capital cities and -2.8% lower nationally. </span></p>
<p><span>Over the most recent four week period, the majority of listings newly added to the market were within the capital cities, with 30,539 new advertisements, compared to 18,104 in regional towns, which means 63% of new listings were in capital cities, while across the total stock pool, capital city listings account for just 45% of available properties</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Listings-table.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Listings-table.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="155"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Melbourne</strong> – 9,477, which is 2.5 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (9,246)</li>
<li>
<strong>Adelaide</strong> – 2,537, which is 1.5 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (2,500)</li>
<li>
<strong>Canberra</strong> – 756, which is 16 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (652)</li>
</ul>
<p>While in terms of total stock, levels are higher, relative to last year, in <strong>Sydney</strong>, <strong>Perth </strong>and <strong>Darwin</strong>. While Perth and Darwin’s total stock levels have continuously been recorded at a higher volume compared to the relative period one week ago for the entirety of 2015, this has only been the case since mid-September in Sydney.</p>
<p>At one point this month, the total available stock in Sydney was the greatest it has been since late 2011, and based on the four weeks ending 29 November, there were a total of 24,579 residential Sydney properties available for sale, the highest volume of listings since late 2013, giving buyers plenty of choice across the Sydney market.</p>
<p>To put this further into perspective, three months ago, at the end of August, there were just over 19,000 Sydney properties listed for sale. Stock levels have been increasing due to two things, firstly the increase in new listings being added to the market each week, which has been trending upwards since May this year, likely attributed to the increase in home values across the city and associated vendor confidence, while since March sales volumes across the city have generally been slowing.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Capital-City.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Capital-City.jpg" alt="" width="778" height="294"></p>
<p><span>Nationally, total listings are -2.8 per cent lower than they were one year ago. Across South Australia, the number of total listings is virtually the same as one year ago, while in the Australian Capital Territory, total listings are just -1.9 per cent lower. Across all the other states and territories, the difference between total stock this year relative to last year is more prominent, with Northern Territory (+9.7 per cent) and Tasmania (-7.0 per cent) showing vast differences.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-National.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-National.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="246"></span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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High volume of Sydney stock available for sale: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>The latest event in the evolution of the Brisbane market is the strong emergence of the Moreton Bay Region in the far north of the city.</p>
<p>It has joined Logan City in the far south as the precinct with the most momentum in the Greater Brisbane area. Meanwhile, Ipswich City in the south-west is putting its hand up as well.</p>
<p>Most national commentators misunderstand what’s happening with the Brisbane market. They look at that single figure which apparently describes the whole Brisbane metropolitan area and conclude not much is happening. Australian Property Monitors says Brisbane prices rose 5% last year while CoreLogic RP Data says 4%.</p>
<p>But beneath that one generalised (and highly misleading) figure, there has been lots of activity in precincts which have recorded double-digit annual growth in median house prices.</p>
<p>Markets in the Greater Brisbane area have been on the move for about two years. The inner-city suburbs were busy a couple of years ago and then the middle-ring suburbs on the northside surged. Many of them had annual growth in the 13% to 15% range. The middle-ring suburbs on the southside joined the party 12-18 months ago.</p>
<p>Now it’s the outer-ring areas that are leading. There are still rising suburbs in those northside and southside middle-market precincts, but it’s the cheaper areas on the outskirts that have the greatest activity and momentum.</p>
<p>In this regard, Brisbane is displaying the same pattern we have seen over the past three years in Sydney and Melbourne – the upturn started in the near-city areas and gradually gravitated outwards from the centre. The Ripple Effect is alive and well in residential real estate.</p>
<p>In Brisbane, Logan City (which is the urban bridge between Brisbane and the Gold Coast) has been  the market leader in terms of sales volumes for the past 12 months or so. But now it’s counterpart in the north, the Moreton Bay Region local government area (which is the urban bridge between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast) has mounted a challenge.</p>
<p>Like Logan City, Moreton Bay Region is all about affordability, transport infrastructure and jobs nodes. Many of the suburbs of Moreton Bay Region – including Caboolture (the capital suburb), Morayfield and Deception Bay – have median prices in the $300,000s, while Burpengary and Narangba are in the low $400,000s.</p>
<p>These are high-volume housing markets: Caboolture, Deception Bay, Morayfield and Narangba have each recorded over 340 house sales in the past 12 months. Some have seen median prices rise 6-7% in the past year – but, in terms of price growth, they’re just getting started.</p>
<p>Median rental yields are an attraction for investors, ranging from 5.2% to 5.6% in most of the suburbs of the Moreton Bay Region.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The LGA includes the Redcliffe Peninsula, which has heightened appeal because the long-awaited Moreton Bay Rail Link will be completed this year.</p>
<p>The overall region has improved amenity through the evolution of the North Lakes master-planned community, which includes major retail (and will soon include an Ikea superstore).</p>
<p>The region also has good proximity to Brisbane Airport, the Port of Brisbane and the Australia Trade Coast industrial precinct, which means plenty of jobs are handy to the suburbs of Moreton Bay Region.</p>
<p class="Body"><em> </em></p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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