Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.

But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.

As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.

For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.

If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.

That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.

It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.

As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.

Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.

The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.

For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.

For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.

A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.

The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.

Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.

A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" />

"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.

"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."

The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.

<img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" />

Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.

The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.

"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."

"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."

Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.

HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.

HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.

But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.

Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.

In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.

That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.

The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.

Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.

Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.

Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.

"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.

"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.

"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."

Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.

Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.

"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.

"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.

"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."

For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.

Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?

As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.

What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-5183975004734142219" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
After a bit of pause in the ABS <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Apr%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> survey we have had no fewer than seven such releases since May...and there's yet another in the post in the next couple of days too!
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown in Australia's population growth to +330,000 in 2014 was straightforward enough to predict for those who were paying attention - with Sydney and Melbourne leading the population growth charts - and regular readers will be well across the drivers of the downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While most commentary is finally just about latching on to last year's story, I'm now getting more interested in trying to anticipate the eventual rebound - the causes thereof, and the likely timing. Let's have a look at a four trends to watch, and particularly the role of exchange rates thereon.</div>
 1 - Net long term migration <div>Rolling annual net long term migration slowed considerably from around 411,000 in January 2013 to just above 300,000 by April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s640/Arr1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
 <div>The downtrend is still in place but appears to be slowing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any case, following some analysis of previous years' data the ABS itself <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/boomerang-departures-to-drive" target="_blank">cast doubts</a> on the relevance of the permanent departures statistics.</div>
 The ABS research implied that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, a high proportion of them are likely return home within just a year. Observed the ABS: <div> </div>
<div>
"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas."
</div>
 <div>Whether or not this proves to be true in the future is less clear, but it does serve as a timely reminder that all is often not as it seems when it comes to demographic trends.</div>
 <div>2 - Record short term arrivals</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the Aussie dollar has declined from around 110 US cents close to just 75 cents, the domestic economy is set to benefit from record high short term arrivals, now tracking at well over 7 million in the year to April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below suggests that we might expect trends in short term arrivals and departures to dovetail with respect to changes in the strength or otherwise of our currency.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the awesome strength of the Aussie dollar through the mining investment boom it was no surprise to see short term departures exploding higher. 
</div>
<div>I even took full advantage of this myself to undertake a rather extravagant world cruise in 2011, something which seems somewhat less appealing now, at least from a cost perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the dollar has depreciated it is all but inevitable that this rampant trend towards overseas travel will reverse and comparatively fewer Australians will choose to travel and holiday overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s640/arr4.jpg" width="640" height="290"></a> In fact, although the above chart doesn't yet appear to suggest so, this has already begun to happen, which is a net positive for the domestic economy. <div>The below chart records the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals by month, and reveals that the ratio has steadily fallen to sit at its lowest level since the first quarter of calendar year 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s640/Arr8.jpg" width="640" height="274"></a> The Aussie dollar likely has further to fall, and in turn so too does this ratio. 3 - Compositional shift of arrivals When people observe housing market trends and opine that the role of Chinese investment might be a passing fad, they might want to think again. <div> </div>
<div>Credit Suisse projects that Chinese investors will drop some $60 billion into Australia's housing markets over the five years to 2020, more than double the estimated $28 million in the preceding five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the number of Chinese USD millionaires is expected to rise at 14% per annum (Chinese stock market corrections notwithstanding!) thereby doubling to 2.6 million by the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there must be an element of guesswork and extrapolation involved here, I've seen nothing in the housing market activity which causes me to cast doubt on the estimates.</div>
 <div>Comfortably the most significant change in short term visitors to Australia has been the explosion in Chinese short term arrivals since the turn of the century.</div>
 <div>In February 2015, the month which incorporated Chinese New Year, an astonishing 198,700 visitors came to Australia from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan combined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s640/Chindia.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
</div>
Interestingly the "original" data for the three months to April also revealed unprecedented numbers of Indian short term arrivals at 66,500, while the Americans are also enjoying the shifts in the exchange rate with rolling annual number of short term visitors rising to a record 563,800. <div class="separator"> </div>
 <div>We can expect that eventually some of these trends will flow through to Australia's permanent settler figures.</div>
 <div>While the number of Brits settling is threatening to become immaterial - at just 590 settlers in April, less than a quarter of the levels seen in 2008 - and permanent New Zealander immigrants are trending sharply down, Indian and Chinese settlers are rapidly tracking at or close to record levels. 
</div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s640/Arr6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a> <div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were 73,370 settlers hailing from Asia in the year to April 2015 as compared to fewer than 15,000 from Europe.</div>
 It's a huge shift in composition that is underway. <div class="separator"> </div>
4 - Record education enrolments in Q1 2015 <div>One other unfolding trend to watch which is also tied to the depreciation of the currency is the record number of foreign student enrolments seen in the first quarter of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS series shows that the rolling annual number of short term arrivals into Australia in the year to April for education has blasted to its highest ever level at 421,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s640/Arr5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
 <div>This is another demographic trend which is heavily skewed towards Asian participants, and Chinese students in particular, and one we can expect to keep on growing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
</div>
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Watch the dollar driven demographic dispositions: Pete Wargent

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Amid media’s multiple orgasms over Sydney price rises, the factor overlooked is how poorly the city had performed on capital growth in the decade before its belated resurgence. 
Hotspotting’s latest survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report shows that Sydney still ranks only fourth among the capital cities for long-term capital growth. Perth is No.1, marginally ahead of Melbourne and Darwin.
Perth’s market peaked in the middle of 2013 and been gradually subsiding since then – but, in terms of long-term growth rates, it still has more suburbs with strong growth averages than any other capital city. All but one of the Perth Top 20 average above 9% per year (which means property doubles in value every eight years).
The recent Sydney boom has elevated the city from 6th late in 2014 to 4th in mid-2015 – an improvement, but still mediocre for long-term growth. Fourteen of Sydney’s Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates below 8% - not nearly good enough to make the Top 20 lists for Melbourne, Perth or Darwin.
No suburb in the vast Sydney metropolitan area has a double-digit growth rate. The best is Pemulwuy (median price $720,000) in the city’s western suburbs, with a long-term growth rate of 9.5% per year. Most of the suburbs in the Top 20 have growth rates in the 7.0% to 8.0% range.
At first glance, it appears that the Top End suburbs dominate Sydney’s Top 20 list, as 19 of the Top 20 (all except Pemulwuy) have median prices above $1 million. But, in fact, these are mostly suburbs a tier below the Top End.  
In Sydney, the 15 most expensive suburbs all have median house prices above $2 million. None of the 20 most expensive suburbs (all with median prices above $1.9 million) make the Sydney’s Top 20 list for long-term capital growth. Most of them have growth rates below 5% per year.
Sydney’s Top 20 is dominated by 15 suburbs in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, which is Sydney’s second tier market.
This factor is common to most of the capital cities. Most of the Top 20 lists, including those in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, are dominated by the middle market. The exception is Perth, where the cheaper end of the market fills most of the spaces on the Top 20 list. 
In Sydney, the outstanding precinct is the Ryde LGA on the lower North Shore, which has four suburbs in the city Top 20. Ryde is the only municipality with more than two suburbs in the Top 20. Its four top suburbs are Eastwood, Ryde, Denistone East and West Ryde, all with median prices in the $1.1 million to $1.3 million range.
The prestige end of the market, suburbs with median house prices above $2 million, continues to deliver poor capital growth rates. Indeed, three of the most expensive suburbs of Sydney are included in the Bottom 20 list of suburbs with the worst growth rates in the city.
Vaucluse (median $3.4 million), Palm Beach ($2.6 million) and Clontarf ($2.5 million) all have growth rates of 2.1% per year or less. Clontarf’s 1.3% grow rate means it would take 55 years for property to double in value (compared to eight years for Pemulwuy).
There are four other million-dollar suburbs on the Bottom 20 list.
The worst precinct in Sydney for capital growth is the Sutherland LGA in the south of the metropolitan area – it has four suburbs (Burraneer, Bundeena, Lilli Pilli and Illawong) on the Bottom 20 list, all with growth rates below 2% per year.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
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Sydney ranks fourth for long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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Australia has one of the most residentially mobile populations of any country. This means we don't mind moving house.
Researchers refer to this as Net Internal Migration, or NIM. With so much attention focused on Sydney's hot property market and the rapid growth in the city's house prices recently, it is easy to see how regional migration starts, as people move from cities to regional areas.
We are already seeing many families priced out of Sydney looking for more value for their money. This migration pattern has been creeping up into the Central Coast and Newcastle over the past few months.
In fact, Newcastle experienced the second largest influx of domestic migrants between 2010 and 2011.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in the 2010-11 period Newcastle was second only to Perth in receiving the highest amount of people moving from other capital cities.
Newcastle was also the sixth highest net gainer of domestic migration as a percentage of its population between 2006 and 2011.
With Newcastle experiencing some of Sydney's spillover, there seems to be a local problem emerging.
Some Novocastrians are now looking to do the same and eyeing off other areas within the Hunter Region in which to start their families. A quick search online for houses for sale around $400,000 in Newcastle throws up a few apartments and small, unrenovated two bedroom homes on very small lots.  In Sydney of course, the pickings are much slimmer.
Rachael Brecht from Jurds Real Estate in Cessnock says: "We have been getting more enquiry from Newcastle and the Central Coast buyers. We even see some Tree Changers coming from Sydney. They are looking for good quality renovated houses with large backyards and good schools and good sporting and shopping facilities.  We have all this and more in Cessnock with the beautiful Hunter Valley vineyards and their world famous cafes and restaurants at our doorstep, we really do have lots to offer."
She's currently marketing a three bedroom house on 800 square metres of land, with a price guide of $399,000.
With the Hunter Expressway now offering quicker access, you can be in the Newcastle CBD within 50 minutes. Cessnock is a two hour drive from Sydney. There are good local employment opportunities, as in this city which has a population of over 54,000, there is a strong, diverse economy.  The health, tourism, retail, manufacturing (wine) and training and education industries are the <a href="https://economy.id.com.au/cessnock/Employment-census" target="_blank">highest employers in the area</a>. 
For buyers from Sydney or Newcastle a three bedroom house on 800sqm of land for $400,000 is very good value. When you combine the low interest rates we are experiencing now, then this may be a great way of getting ahead.
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The search widens for families priced out of cities

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There are 72 auctions scheduled this week in Melbourne compared to 92 for the same time last year.
Auction numbers are low this week due to the AFL Grand Final.
Conditions in the private sale market are becoming more competitive with homes taking fewer days to sell and a lower vendor discount.
Recent data shows that all of the top 10 suburbs when ranked by time on market are in the eastern suburbs. Rowville had the lowest number of days on market followed by Blackburn North, Croydon, Wantirna South and Vermont South.
On a city wide basis the time on market results for houses sold at private sale fell from 44 days to 41 days over the last week whilst vendor discounting fell from -5.4 per cent to -5.2 per cent.
Key data
<ul>
<li>Clearance rate week ending 28 September:72.1%</li>
<li>Melbourne auctions expected week ending 28 September: 72</li>
<li>Melbourne private sales time on market week ending 21 September: 41 days (houses)</li>
<li>Melbourne vendor discounting market week ending 21 September: -5.2% (houses)</li>
<li>Listings being prepared for market are 2% higher in month ending 21 September (seasonally adjusted)</li>
</ul>
 
 
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Sellers steer clear of Grand Final day: RP Data's weekend auction preview

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I think we all need to have a cold shower, a few aspirin and a wee lie down.
Then, having calmed down a bit, conduct a rational assessment of our property markets, without the emotion, the self-serving hyperbole and the publicity-seeking rhetoric.
We seem to have arrived at a point where any price rise anywhere in Australia is deemed a crisis. We're also at a point where the argument (it doesn't deserve to be called a debate) about real estate is driven by the people who make the most noise, rather than those with the most knowledge.
And, saddest of all, Australia in 2014 is a place where few people who work in or use the media give a damn about fairness, accuracy or balance. The only thing that matters is the headline or the political points scored or the amount of publicity achieved.
There was a time when journalists performed a worthwhile role. They were the filters through which information and comment had to pass. Claims were challenged, information was checked and alternative views were sought.
No one got to write about a subject unless they had credentials.
Today employees of media organisations are often mere conduits for propaganda. The public is asked to accept that if it's in a press release, it's valid. If someone describing themself as an economist makes a statement, it's likely to be fact. If an offshore "analyst" makes an observation, it's news.
The outcome is a melting pot of extreme views. The missing ingredients are objectivity, scrutiny and balance.
Many journalists no longer feel the need to support their statements with evidence.
A writer from a major media company (not a property specialist but apparently a "personal finance writer") this week stated as fact that Australia has "inflated house prices" and "surging property prices across the country". And that was just the first sentence.
No evidence was presented to back those big statements; we were expected to accept them as truth, despite the writer's lack of expertise and the reality that all the research data contradicts the notion we have "surging property prices across the country". According to the numbers I see every day, it's simply a lie.
On the same day, a writer from a different media company, with even flimsier credentials, sought to justify a pre-conceived attitude that investors exploiting the tax system drive up property prices. He presented graphs which he claimed showed that "whenever investor activity increases, house prices go up".
He saw what he wanted to see but, in reality, the graphs showed nothing of the sort. They showed, in fact, that investors do not lead price rises – they follow them. In every step along the graph line, a change in investor activity came after a change in prices.
My three decades researching real estate has taught me that investors never instigate property booms - they follow them. The biggest force in real estate, always, is the sector comprising home buyers other than first-home buyers, who dominate most markets numerically and have the financial capacity and motivation to pay high prices.
Meanwhile, another columnist with a bee in his bonnet about Asian investors tried to argue that "an influx of murky money from China" had been distorting and inflating our property markets "for years".
There was little in the way of research evidence, just a convoluted set of statements that led to no apparent conclusion.
So there we had, on the same day, three writers, all of them working for major media organisations but none of them with any real estate expertise, all claiming "Australian property prices" were unreasonably high, but each blaming a different bogeyman – one claiming it was foreign investors, another pointing the finger at local investors boosted by negative gearing, and the third blaming slack lending standards.
The one thing they had in common is that they all got it wrong. And probably don't give a damn because the headline is the thing.
So, setting aside all the ego-driven noise, here's a reality check.
Sydney remains the only city to have produced boom growth to date. The figure so many misguided commentators keep quoting – and describing as "the surge in Australian property prices" – is nothing more than the average increase across the capital cities, greatly inflated by Sydney's growth.
The key thing is this: Sydney's upturn follows 10 years of under-performance. Even with the rises of the past year or so, Sydney's average growth over the past decade is still below par. As a number of the more rational observers have commented, Sydney has been playing catch-up. But, despite the recent increases, it still hasn't caught up.
Here are some examples of what I mean. The median house price for <a href="/news">Vaucluse</a> has increased 17% in the past 12 months, according to Australian Property Monitors, but the average annual rise in the past five years is just 1.4%. The 10-year growth average is 3% per year.
The median unit price for <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> is up 17% in 12 months, but the 10-year average is 1.5% per year. In real terms, they've lost value over the past decade.
In <a href="/news">Darling Point</a>, the median unit price today is lower than it was 10 years ago, despite the recent growth. They've lost money, even without allowing for inflation.
Heading out west to a more mainstream and affordable market, the suburb of <a href="/news">Blacktown</a> (Sydney's most popular suburb in terms of sales volumes) has recorded 18% median price growth in the past year, but it's 10-year average is just 3% per year.
You'll find similar numbers right across the Sydney metropolitan area. Even when you examine above-average performers, the numbers are still modest. Balgowlah's five-year growth average is 5% per year; its 10-year performance is 4.1% per year.
All the froth and bubble in the media is being caused almost exclusively by Sydney's growth, but in reality Sydney's long-term performance remains decidedly poor.
Take the recent Sydney growth out of the equation and the average growth in the past year across the other seven capital cities is 4-5%. And that follows several years of price decline.
But, amid the prevailing atmosphere that any price rise is a national disgrace, even that number would be described by some as a bubble.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can reach Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
 
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Headline obsessed writers need a reality check

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Hi,
I'm thinking about purchasing a property that has been built in underneath with no council approval. The problem is that it is a high set home on recently flood zoned area of <a href="/news">Logan</a>. My question is, is it still possible to get building certification for lower levels in flood areas or does the council never allow it?
Margaret Lomas' answer is on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
When you own a house or unit in any local government area, it is your duty to ensure that the building codes provided by the state department of planning, and administered locally by the council's own planning departments, are adhered to. 
This also means that, if you make any changes to a property which has previously been approved as compliant, you must first ask council for permission to make such changes.
These rules exist for many reasons - to ensure that an area remains aesthetically pleasing, to provide safe living environments for residents, and to protect the environment itself. If you have ever visited a country where there is no building code, and seen how the residential areas look when people build whatever they like, you will better appreciate these rules! 
You will also know that when a natural disaster strikes, the loss and injury caused is far more catastrophic, often due to the unsafe nature of what has been built and the overbuilding of those areas.
And so to your dilemma. You are thinking of buying  property with an unapproved alteration, and you should know that the council is within their rights to ask you to revert it back if they so desire. If the council feels for any reason that the alteration contravenes the current development rules, or in any way poses a risk to the surrounding community in the event of a flood, then they will ask you to revert it. 
You should check the flood maps available on the Logan City Council website, and see if this property falls within a flood zone. If so, your chances of having this alteration retrospectively approved is next to none, and the chances of being asked to remove the alteration is in play.
You should ask the current owner to either have the alteration approved prior to your purchase, or provide a letter from the council attesting to the fact that the alterations do not contravene any planning rules, and would be otherwise approved if you submit a development application. Then, as soon as you settle, take the steps to have the alterations approved to remove any future doubt.
 
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Ask Margaret: What happens if I buy a house with an unapproved alteration?

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One of Victoria's most impressive pastoral homestead, Mount Mitchell at Lexton, 40 kilometres northwest of Ballarat, has been listed for sale.
The five bedroom 100 squares bluestone home with 14 open fire places, that dates back to the Robertson family pioneering connection, has been listed through Pat Rice &amp; Hawkins.
Offers on the 310 hectare holding <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-lifestyle-vic-lexton-7684059" target="_blank">close November 11 with $4.5 million plus hopes</a>.
Constructed around the central courtyard with its historic horizontal elm tree, the Mount Mitchell homestead was designed by the Charles Webb, who was the architect for a number of Melbourne’s foremost buildings including Tasma Terrace in East Melbourne. 
The bluestone homestead, of Italian conservative classical design, sits within a four hectare garden.
The vendors, the fourth owners, have been there thirty plus years, buying it in a neglected state in 1981. 
Construction of the homestead began in 1860 and was completed some twelve months later with a further replica section added in 1910. 
Peter Hawkins, director of Pat Rice &amp; Hawkins, advised 766 acres was currently let under contract for cropping to a local farmer and also comprises highly productive red loams to heavier and darker soils considered to be volcanic in origin. 
The land is on a corner with the Sunraysia Highway and Dawson Road.
The building of the homestead commenced in 1860 and was completed during 1861 for Thomas Robertson senior and his eldest son James. Thomas lived there until his death in 1873 with James and his family remaining at Mt Mitchell until James death in 1893. In 1910 Thomas Robertson senior's grandchild engaged another architect to design the additions which almost doubled the size of the original homestead. 
In 1926 Mt Mitchell was sold to the new owner, Thomas Barrett who extended the garden and planted the pine trees which still grow along the full length of the driveway.
 In 1936 Thomas Barrett sold Mt Mitchell to the Muller brothers and for a period of time the homestead was left neglected and in disrepair until it was purchased by the current owner Richard Salter.
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Ballarat district bluestone Mount Mitchell homestead listed

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There are 1,324 auctions scheduled this week in Melbourne compared to 1,616 for the same time last year.
The highest volume of auctions will be in Reservoir, which has 33 expected.
Last week was the second largest weekend for auctions in the city's history with 1,733 auctions compared to 1,837 in late October. The clearance rate dropped from 71% to 66%; this comparison between the two almost identical weeks provides a very clear summary of the change in the market over two months.
There are only two weekends for auctions now until Christmas.
On a citywide basis, the time on market results for houses sold at private sale contracted from 32 to 31 days over the last week and vendor discounting eased slightly to -5%.
Key data:
<ul>
<li>Clearance rate week ending 7 December: 66%</li>
<li>Melbourne auctions expected week ending 14 December: 1,324</li>
<li>Melbourne private sales time on market week ending 7 December: 31 days (houses)</li>
<li>Melbourne vendor discounting market week ending 7 December: -5% (houses)</li>
<li>Listings being prepared for market are 0.4% higher in month ending 7 December (seasonally adjusted)</li>
</ul>
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Reservoir homes go under the hammer: Melbourne's weekend auction preview

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The Reserve Bank's Chart Pack is always worth a gander, being consistently and independently produced... and free from spin.
You can view the full chart pack <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index" target="_blank">here</a>.
Let's run through what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has found this month for households and the housing market.
Part 1: Households and finances
Retail sales growth is humming along both in terms of values and volumes, largely driven by Sydney retail.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%201.gif" alt="">
Savings ratios have been elevated since the financial crisis as households shored up their finances, but the ratio now appears to be gradually declining again as low interest rates encourage investment in growth assets.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%202.gif" alt="">
Consumer sentiment has been knocked around a little by budgets and other adverse news, but remain fairly close to where it has been averaging for the last 34 years.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%203.gif" alt="">
Household wealth in Australia is now at record highs in absolute terms. In terms of net worth as a percentage of annual household disposable income, asset values are growing nicely, and liabilities are holding steady.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%204.gif" alt="">
Interest paid as a percentage of household disposable income has declined in tandem with mortgage rates . Indeed, mortgage serviceability is at its best level in more than a decade.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%205.gif" alt="">
Part 2: The housing market
Stimulated by rising dwelling prices, building approvals brushed record highs, but have now seemingly passed their peak. We will see an oversupply of dwellings <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/melbourne-continues-to-hammer-high-rise" target="_blank">in a few regions</a> – one would be wise to steer clear of these, of course.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%206.gif" alt="">
Housing loan approvals rise to record highs, largely driven by investors in this cycle, the direct result of low borrowing rates.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%207.gif" alt="">
And finally, to housing prices. As we expected some years ago, due to an inherent undersupply of dwelling stock and infrastructure, Sydney prices are soaring towards $1 million.
With both the M2 and the M7 closed again earlier this week, and barely a day passing without news of diabolical traffic woes, expect there to be a continuing surge of demand for properties located close to key transport hubs such as rail or light rail links.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%208.gif" alt="">
Elsewhere, Melbourne has been looking peaky for months but has held up reasonably well to date.
Perth's market is trending slightly up but only moderately, while Canberra is now all set for a downturn. The Adelaide market – and particularly its economy – remains unconvicing,
Counter-cyclical investors should be scoping out opportunities in Brisbane, where housing finance is gathering momentum – as reconfirmed this week by <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/mortgage-index-january-2015/" target="_blank">AFG's December Mortgage Index data</a>.
 
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How Australian households will look in 2015

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I wonder what media is going to do with the latest admission from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that it has been grossly under-estimating the number of first-home buyers in the market.
On Wednesday this week, the ABS posted an update on its "investigation to evaluate the robustness of estimates of loans to first-home buyers".
The investigation, it said, found that "some lenders experience difficulty reporting on loans where the buyers does not receive a first home owner grant".
This, as I pointed out in my column earlier this week (and commented throughout last year, as did other writers on Property Observer), is the nub of the matter. The ABS collects data from the banks on home loans, and the method of identifying a loan applicant as a first-home buyer has always been their application for the first home owner grant.
If the applicant does not apply for a grant, the system does not identify them as a first home buyer.
Since state and territory governments across Australia stopped providing grants for established properties, the number of grant applications has dropped significantly. The research shows that most first-time buyers opt for an established home (cheaper, usually with more land and often better located) over a new home – and therefore most first-home buyers are no longer receiving grants.
The banks no longer record them as first-home buyers.
Because of the under-estimation of first-home buyers, the ABS statistics on home loans have given the appearance that first-time buyers have almost vanished from the market.
Media has leapt on this as a recurring headline, giving rise to claims that young Australians have been priced out of the market – and then, as a natural progression, generating witch hunts to find someone to blame for the situation. Negative gearing benefits to local investors and the activity of foreign investors have been popular targets.
There have been thousands of articles written in the past 12-18 months about the demise of the Great Australian Dream, all based on a fundamental falsehood, created by the ABS miscount of first-home buyers.
It's a damning indictment on journalistic standards in this country that so few have picked up on this. Nobody thought to investigate. No one asked the most basic of questions. Media rushed en masse to the cheap and easy headline – the dream is dead because young Aussies can't afford to buy.
It took a simple phone call from my office in mid-2014 to extract an admission from the ABS that their figures on first-home buyers were wrong – and why they were wrong.
Just how wrong was demonstrated by the recent NAB survey which found that 25% of established homes sold are being bought by first-time buyers and that 24% of new homes are bought by first-timers.
Journalists and editors across Australia should be hanging their heads. But you can be sure none of them will. Nor will the many economists, analysts and commentators who have seized on the ABS figures to justify their attitudes on real estate issues (such as those with an anti negative gearing stance or those opposed to foreign investment in Australian real estate).
"Users are advised to exercise caution in using this data," the ABS said on Wednesday. That warning has come at least 12 months too late. Not that it will make any difference to some.
I would bet my house that next week there will be more articles in major newspapers repeating the fiction that first-home buyers are at an all-time low. And the week after. And six months from now. People won't let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude or an easy sound byte.
"ABS and APRA will continue to work with lenders to improve data quality," the ABS said this week. "In the meantime, from the December 2014 issue (to be released on 11 February 2015), estimates of loans to first home buyers will include an adjustment for under-reporting of loans where the buyer did not receive a first home owner grant.
"An Information Paper will be released on the ABS website on 4 February 2015 explaining changes to the method of estimating first home buyers' data and the extent of revisions.   The ABS will continue to update the method as lenders progressively improve their reporting."
Too little, too late. Australia is awash from misinformation on the real estate industry and the most extreme example has been the first-home buyer miscount and all the column inches of inaccurate comment and posturing it has generated.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Terry will be participating in a webinar on 'The Best and Worst for 2015: Top 5 Hotspots and 5 Places to Avoid' on 3 February.
Click here to <a href="/news">register now</a>.
 
 
 
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