Apartment buyers in New South Wales are set to gain a decade of insurance-backed protection against major building defects, after the NSW Parliament passed the Fair Trading and Building Legislation Amendment Bill 2026.&nbsp;

The Bill establishes decennial defect insurance, known in the market as Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), as an alternative to the existing two-year strata building bond. It cleared the Legislative Council with amendments on Tuesday evening (August 4, 2026), with the Legislative Assembly agreeing to those amendments shortly after.

Under the reform, eligible developers can satisfy their statutory bond obligation by taking out an approved decennial-style policy that gives owners 10 years of cover for major structural defects from completion, claimable directly, without first having to pursue developers or builders through costly legal action.&nbsp;

The change forms the final tranche of amendments arising from the 2021 statutory review of the Strata Schemes Management Act 2015 and related legislation.

Resilience Insurance, which originated the cover in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022, welcomed the passage and credited the NSW Government for delivering it.

“This is protection apartment buyers have needed for a long time, and the credit for delivering it belongs to the NSW Government,”&nbsp;said Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance.

“Minister Chanthivong and his team have shown real leadership in replacing an outdated two-year bond with cover that matches the lifespan of the buildings people are buying into. Reform like this is what good, evidence-based regulation looks like.”

Resilience has delivered LDI in NSW since 2022, protecting thousands of apartments, giving the State, and now the country, real-world evidence of how decade-long, no-fault protection works in practice.

The reform also places NSW within a wider national shift.

NSW is the third jurisdiction to put decennial cover into law. The ACT legislated for it in 2024, with the scheme taking effect in late 2025, and Victoria passed its own framework on 17 June. Between them, the three cover the majority of Australia's apartment market.

The reform commences once the legislation is proclaimed, which is expected in the coming weeks. From that point, developers of Class 2 residential apartment buildings can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial policy in place of the bond.

Buyers who purchased into projects that took out the cover early are among the first in the country to take keys to apartments carrying decade-long structural protection.

“With the legislation passed, the focus now turns to making it work for buyers,”&nbsp;Nugent said.

“There are already thousands of apartments in NSW covered by this insurance, bought by developers who moved early. The question every buyer should be asking in a display suite is a simple one: does this building come with 10-year defect cover, and who stands behind it?&nbsp;

“We look forward to working with the Government and the Building Commission in coming weeks as the framework moves to implementation, and to sharing what we have learned over the past four years so the protection reaches owners as smoothly and quickly as possible.”

Other states are working through their own reform programs. Western Australia has indicated that decennial cover is within consideration a later stage of its reform sequence, and Queensland has been examining the settings as it looks at the development pipeline ahead of the 2032 Olympics.

Resilience Insurance acknowledges the NSW Government’s continued focus on strengthening consumer protection while supporting housing delivery across the State.

Fast Facts: What the reform means

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Proven at scale:&nbsp;Decennial cover has operated in NSW since 2022, protecting thousand of apartments.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">10 years of cover:&nbsp;Protection for major structural defects runs for a decade from completion, claimable directly and with no legal action required.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">An alternative to the bond:&nbsp;Eligible developers can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial-style policy in place of the 2% strata building bond.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Part of a national shift:&nbsp;The ACT has had decennial provisions in force since 2025 and Victoria passed its framework in June. NSW now joins them.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">No-fault, first resort:&nbsp;Owners corporations claim directly from the insurer without first having to establish who is liable for the defect.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost-competitive:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the 2% bond while offering broader, longer protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market position:&nbsp;Resilience originated LDI in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022.</li>
</ul>

Fast Facts: What is Resilience LDI?

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Resilience Latent Defects Insurance (LDI):&nbsp;Covers major structural defects for 10 years from completion.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Consumer-first:&nbsp;Direct claim access, no need for lengthy legal action.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost advantage:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the traditional 2% Strata Bond while offering broader protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market leader:&nbsp;&nbsp;Resilience Insurance originated LDI in Australia and is the national market leader.</li>
</ul>

Joel Robinson

NSW parliament passes 10-year defect insurance laws for new apartment buyers

Builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mcnab-developments">McNab</a> has wasted little time reshaping one of South Brisbane's most significant undeveloped apartment sites after acquiring the property earlier this year.&nbsp;

McNab has lodged plans to scrap an existing approval for two 30-storey towers and instead deliver a single 28-storey residential building, preserving part of the site for a future development opportunity.

The proposal, lodged over <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-peel-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">64 Peel Street and 9 Cordelia Street</a>, is for a residential-led mixed-use development comprising 124 apartments above a landscaped podium, alongside a boundary realignment that preserves part of the land for a future residential project.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="743bf564-3f8f-45fc-b8d3-bbf18f5b628f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20Peel%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=EhCxGrVn_VFH3qTbKnI4WppGwaMnOn0t" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a>, the development will deliver 119 two-bedroom and five three-bedroom apartments across 23 residential levels. A five-level podium will accommodate 135 car spaces, while the ground floor will include a 66 sqm commercial tenancy, an activated residential lobby with work-from-home spaces, and a publicly accessible landscaped plaza linking Cordelia and Peel streets.&nbsp;

Communal amenities will span Level 6 and the rooftop, including indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, a swimming pool, barbecue facilities, kitchen and dining areas, lawn space, sauna, steam room and yoga facilities.

The application also proposes a boundary realignment to create a standalone 1,290 sqm development lot while retaining an adjacent parcel for future redevelopment, allowing the balance of the site to contribute additional housing over time.

Hayball said the architecture has been shaped by the site's elevated corner position at the intersection of Peel and Cordelia streets and Brisbane's subtropical climate.

The design incorporates generous landscaped setbacks, a masonry podium wrapped with planting, large north-facing balconies, and a slender tower profile intended to maximise natural light, cross ventilation and long-range views. The rooftop has been conceived as a wellness-focused retreat overlooking Brisbane, with amenities positioned to capture views towards Mount Coot-tha and the CBD.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5f99e84-6ad8-4a87-82d1-869685b754d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20tower%20perspective.png?VersionId=Gw0IuJaSAlk.tvGBxInhZOcQAdIB..2b" />

The planning submission positions the proposal as a response to both changing market conditions and Brisbane's Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning reforms.

McNab acquired the site after the previous approval was granted, with the existing scheme no longer reflecting current residential market demands, economic conditions, construction challenges, construction efficiencies or the quality of development outcome now being pursued, the planning report noted.

McNab continues to expand its residential development pipeline across Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The developer recently launched The Tannery in West End, securing more than 60 per cent of apartments before the project's public release. It is also delivering Elements Budds Beach in Surfers Paradise and Lucia Highgate Hill, an eight-apartment boutique development overlooking the Brisbane River.

McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower

A steeply sloping Bellevue Hill site is set to accommodate a new mid-rise apartment development, with plans lodged for 20 homes that respond to the site's dramatic topography.

The proposal for the consolidated land at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/138a-140-bellevue-road-bellevue-hill-nsw-2023">138A-140 Bellevue Road</a> has been designed by Sydney architecture practice Common Office, which has used the site’s substantial fall to distribute the building’s scale and unlock 20 apartments without presenting the full height to the street.&nbsp;

“The unique design strategy leverages the site’s substantial topographical fall to facilitate increased density, presenting a seven-storey profile to Bellevue Road while rising to 10 storeys at the rear,” Common Office said in its architectural design report.

The apartment mix spans one, two, three- and four-bedroom residences. Four two-bedroom apartments are designated as affordable housing, while the plans also include two adaptable dwellings. The mix is majority three-beds, with the typical three-bed apartment offering around 144 sqm internally, with balconies of around 15 sqm.

The affordable housing component represents 15 per cent of the residential floor area and allows the project to access additional height and floor space under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions. The site also falls within the inner area of the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy because it is within 400 metres walking distance of Double Bay Town Centre.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1230d0f-3bfa-4a11-abaf-0928c66ef345" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da.png?VersionId=dZeMK3P.OutGjN8ycjsxm8uNsj_QFWQv" />

Common Office has arranged the building around a masonry podium and a lighter upper volume, drawing on two recurring elements of Bellevue Hill’s established architecture: sandstone bases and the vertical proportions of local Inter-war Art Deco apartment buildings.

“The proposal is governed by a holistic design language that reconciles the solid horizontal masonry of the neighbourhood’s podiums with the elegant verticality of its Art Deco heritage,” the architect said.

“The building maintains a consistent rhythmic logic utilising deep recesses and a sophisticated material transition to break down the 10-storey scale into a series of articulated, human-scale volumes.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0147f503-1af1-4d51-97fb-c2f1cba63a9d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20bldg.png?VersionId=GoW7q3NlK67OpnePXhk7zvklrlKb72Qc" />

Large-format sandstone tiles will define the lower levels, establishing a robust base that negotiates the change in elevation from Bellevue Road. Above, red-tinted precast concrete frames, recessed balconies, anodised aluminium screens and expanded metal details will create a more vertically expressed façade. Integrated planter beds will introduce greenery across balcony edges and recessed sections of the building.

The elongated northern façade has been divided into three recessed vertical masses to reduce its perceived length. Triangular window elements and metal privacy screens reference the geometry of nearby Art Deco buildings while controlling overlooking toward surrounding homes. The southern elevation will incorporate further privacy screening, landscaped edges and deep balconies to maintain light and ventilation.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e8679cf1-18bc-4447-8a0f-0052b94ab83c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da%20rooftop.png?VersionId=5SQqQqRFf76rvE2p1TbxJSweMN70AIbc" />

Private and communal landscaping is distributed throughout the development. A landscaped garden apartment is positioned within the lower portion of the site, while a communal terrace on Level 5 will include a central timber deck, barbecue facilities, resident planting plots and areas for outdoor dining and informal gatherings.

Common Office described the terrace as an elevated sanctuary designed to capture district views and sunlight. Its planting strategy incorporates endemic species associated with the Eastern Suburbs Banksia Scrub, extending the landscape vertically through the building and providing habitat for local flora and fauna.

A second communal outdoor area is proposed at roof level, with built-in seating, paved gathering areas and perimeter planting.

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction. Positive Investment Enterprise is delivering the 16-apartment Kew Palm House on Birriga Road, while Chanine Developments is also under construction at Florian, a 36-apartment project on Banksia Road.

&nbsp;

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction.

First Look: Apartment development pitched for Bellevue Hill, Double Bay fringe

South Brisbane's apartment pipeline continues to build momentum, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/trk-property-group">TRK Property Group</a> lodging plans for a 161-apartment tower on Montague Road as developers accelerate investment across the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

The proposal for 176–186 Montague Road would replace an existing office building with a 20-storey residential tower designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, adding to a growing pipeline of high-density projects reshaping one of Brisbane's fastest-evolving inner-city precincts.

The project has been conceived as a "living building", featuring a flowing tower form, extensive vertical landscaping, and generous communal spaces that respond to the evolving Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

TRK Property Group Development Director Matt Kan said the project reflected the confidence developers have in South Brisbane's long-term future.

"South Brisbane is entering an incredibly exciting period, and we see Montague Road sitting right at the heart of that evolution," Kan said.

"With the former Visy site directly opposite us and significant investment planned throughout the broader Kurilpa precinct, there is a real sense of momentum around this part of the city and what it will become over the coming years.

"For TRK, this is an opportunity to be part of that next chapter and deliver a project that responds to where the precinct is heading, while contributing to the continued evolution of Brisbane's river edge."

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="590fe1ad-f892-4446-a679-80e33a16d029" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20tower%20facade.png?VersionId=uOJStrcKpyHFcPE1w6_9SMAFzVMCcZll" />

The scheme includes a mix of one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, incorporating multi-purpose rooms in selected residences to provide additional flexibility for home offices or expanded living areas. The proposed mix comprises 15 one-bedroom, 13 one-bedroom plus MPR, 73 two-bedroom, 26 two-bedroom plus MPR, 30 three-bedroom, and four four-bedroom apartments.

Rather than adopting a conventional rectilinear tower, COX Architecture has developed a sculpted form inspired by the movement of the Brisbane River.

"The proposal has been designed by COX Architecture as a 'living building' that responds to the site's riverine setting, floodplain history and evolving urban context within the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct," the planning report states.

"The architectural form draws from the fluid nature of the Brisbane River, with a curved and undulating tower form that creates a varied architectural edge and avoids a conventional rectilinear tower expression."

The podium has also been designed as an architectural feature rather than a conventional parking structure, with cascading planting, screening and natural-toned materials softening its appearance. Resident parking is elevated above ground level to address the site's flood constraints, while habitable apartments sit above flood planning levels. Upper-level communal facilities are designed to accommodate shelter-in-place arrangements during major flood events.

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="01fa15d0-90df-46c7-9555-7941fc45373c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20podium.png?VersionId=mHyua.w1pHGBt9qEdWzrlsv.leztUCwO" />

Communal amenity is a major focus of the proposal. Around 1,815 sqm of shared resident space is proposed across the ground floor, level 19 and the rooftop, including co-working areas, indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, wellness facilities, dining and gathering areas, lawn spaces, a rooftop pool and spa, and extensive landscaping. At street level, a landscaped forecourt and approximately 345 sqm of publicly accessible open space along Montague Road are intended to improve the pedestrian experience while activating the building's frontage.

The development will provide 163 car spaces, including 152 resident bays and 11 visitor spaces, together with 144 bicycle spaces incorporating resident storage, visitor parking, bicycle maintenance facilities and e-mobility charging infrastructure.

The site sits within one of Brisbane's fastest-changing inner-city precincts, less than two kilometres from the CBD and within easy reach of South Bank, West End, the Queensland Cultural Centre and extensive public transport connections. The Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning framework is encouraging higher-density residential development to help meet Brisbane's housing supply targets while supporting walkable, transit-oriented neighbourhoods.

TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans

Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
<div id="post-body-36613851729109642" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>In May 2018, I noted that I didn't think we'd end up with a major housing crunch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Part of my reasoning was that 'lenders gonna lend'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, just as we've used a knife and fork for more than 800 years, Australia's financial system has been deregulated for decades, and we still have four major banks, all of which need to lend money to make money.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I felt this would insulate the housing downturn, despite the heavy macroprudential changes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What wasn't so clear at that time, at least to me, was the full impact that the Royal Commission would have on the appetite of lenders. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the event, a full seven rounds of public hearings was played out in front the media throng, and the final report wasn't delivered until last month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Accordingly there have been some nervous operators over the past year or so, and there was a very noticeable impact on mortgage processing and practices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Policy moves</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RC final report being submitted only in February 2019, this is all very much fresh in the memory, so any loosening of the credit taps is likely to be gradual.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But still, with a smaller mortgage pie to be shared around - lending volumes are down by a fifth from a year earlier - and major banks having lost market share in recent years, I believe there will be some policy moves to win business and get mortgage book growth back into positive territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's only March, bear in mind, the month after the final RC report, but today we saw the first interesting move of any note, from ANZ Bank:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s1600/Wemyss.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RLHPrcZuxFk/XIn45vh_1pI/AAAAAAAAu98/uLIiYyi0OloMf308ZHbLqUL6TF8JDBlrwCLcBGAs/s640/Wemyss.jpg" width="640" height="233" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="745"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>90 per cent LVR investment mortgages with a 10-year interest-only term should generate a bit of welcome business for ANZ (not to mention profit, since rates and have tended to be higher on IO mortgages). </div>
<div>
 And ANZ has generally been one of the more proactive lenders of late.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some context is due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Borrowers taking this option on a 10-year IO mortgage will see sundry borrowing capacity hampered, due to the way in which this mortgage debt is assessed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, indeed, most IO loans don't run for 10 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's a nice cushion for borrowers seeking IO certainty, and moreover it's the first positive signal of competition returning for investor borrowers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Credit to loosen a little: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion that socialism/heavy state intervention doesn’t lead to the best outcome in terms of living standards for most. Second, I had the benefit of a trip to the USSR before it and the eastern bloc disintegrated. It must have been Paul McCartney’s faux Beach Boys’, “Back in the USSR” that got me interested! Sure the history and scenery were fantastic and I like the fact that I saw it before the wall came down – but economically it was a mess. And trying to spend excess roubles before we left the USSR was a struggle (nothing but off chocolate to spend them on). “Socialism” seemed to work a bit better in the Deutsche Democratic Republic - but not really and it was a relief to come through Checkpoint Charlie knowing decent food (McDonald’s) was waiting.
So I ended up gravitating to the centre with the view that the best approach is to allow a market economy with the government providing a good safety net, education and intervening where there are market failures. But a wise man told me when I was young that it’s best to start off on the left when you are young otherwise you will end being like Attila the Hun, as you move to the right as you age. Given the tendency for the young to start off on the left its no surprise to see younger generations favour a bigger role for government in what The Economist magazine has dubbed “millennial socialism”.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/14/role%20for%20government%20.jpg" alt="">
If the millennials and Gen Z follow the normal pattern they will shift to the right as they age like their forebears. So nothing new! Well maybe but there is a big difference now compared to the 1980s. Back in the 1980s the political pendulum (or technically the median voter) was moving to the right. So my ageing was in tune with a big picture political cycle. Now the pendulum is swinging left. We first looked at this three years ago. Since then it’s become more evident. This note looks at what’s driving it and what it means for investors.
Political cycles beyond elections
Just as the weather, economies and financial markets go in cycles so it is with politics, even beyond standard electoral cycles. This has been clearly evident over the last century:
1930s-1970s - the Great Depression gave rise to a fear of deflation and high unemployment and a scepticism of free markets. The political pendulum swung to the left and culminated in the economic disaster of the high tax, protectionism, growing state intervention and the welfare state of the late 1960s and 1970s that gave rise to stagflation.
1980s-2000s – stagflation and the failure of heavy government intervention gave rise to popular support for the economic rationalist/right of centre policies of the 1980s. Thatcher, Reagan and Hawke and Keating ushered in a period of deregulation, freer trade, privatisation, lower marginal tax rates, tougher restrictions on access to welfare, measures to reign in budget deficits and other supply side economic reforms designed to boost productivity. The middle class didn’t support higher taxes on the rich because they aspired to be rich. This was all helped along by the collapse of communism and the integration of the old USSR and China into global trade. The political pendulum swung to the right and there was talk of “The End of History” with general agreement that free market democracies were the way to go.
2010 - ? – but post the global financial crisis (GFC) it seems the pendulum is swinging to the left again and support for economic rationalist policies seems to be fading if not reversing.
What’s pushing the political pendulum to the left?
This reflects a range of factors, in particular:
<ul>
<li>the feeling that the GFC indicated financial de-regulation had gone too far;</li>
<li>constrained and fragile economic growth in recent years;</li>
<li>stagnant real wages and incomes for median households;</li>
<li>high household debt levels preventing individuals from</li>
<li>taking on more debt as a way to boost living standards;</li>
<li>rising levels of inequality and perceptions that “it’s unfair”;</li>
<li>the perceived failure of the baby boomer generation of political leaders to do much about climate change;</li>
<li>examples of big business doing the wrong thing;</li>
<li>a backlash against immigration in some countries; and </li>
<li>a backlash against globalisation.</li>
</ul>
Of course, it’s being aided by a dimming of memories of stagflation of the 1970s and its causes and the failures of socialism as highlighted by the USSR (although Venezuela provides a current example). So government related solutions or socialism seem more attractive. Allied to this are economic theories like Modern Monetary Theory (or rather, Magic Mushroom Theory) that contends governments can borrow and spend freely in the current environment of spare capacity globally spurred along by the crazy argument that quantitative easing did not cause hyper inflation and higher interest rates so why should bigger budget deficits.
Of these rising inequality and perceptions of stagnant living standards are the big ones. The next chart shows the Gini coefficient, which is about the best measure of income inequality, calculated on incomes after taxes and transfers. It ranges from zero or perfect equality to one indicating perfect inequality with one household/individual, receiving all income.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/14/inequality%20.jpg" alt="">
The key point is that there has been a general trend higher in inequality during the past 30 years. This is particularly evident in the emerging world but also the US, UK and Australia. Rising levels of income inequality also appears to have come with increase in wealth inequality. Rising inequality may have been more bearable or “masked” in the 1990s and 2000s as nominal income was rising faster and households took on debt to boost their living standards. But in recent times this has become harder and so rising inequality is leading to a backlash.
The political response
In this environment (often populist) politicians have been able to easily tap into voter anger and argue the case for greater public sector involvement in the economy.
This was evident in support for self-declared socialist Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in the US in 2016 (although Trump’s focus on deregulation and tax cuts look like a temporary deviation right). It’s now even more evident in the Democrats with the Green New Deal (that plans to rid the US of carbon emissions – and planes &amp; cows – in a decade) and 2020 Democrat presidential aspirants adopting variations of Bernie Sanders’ policies, with proposals for wealth taxes and a 70% tax rate for income above $10 million (which is supported by 59% of Americans). It’s also evident in less US public concern about rising public debt.
It’s been evident in the Brexit vote in the UK which represented a backlash against globalisation and the left wing turn in the British Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn.
In Australia, we are seeing an intensification of theleft right divide not seen since1970s. The ALP is far from the economic rationalist policies of Hawke and Keating. Policies of higher taxes for the “big end of town” (bringing back the Budget Repair Levy and winding back various tax concessions), significantly increased spending on health and education, some reregulation of the labour market and talk of raising the minimum wage to become a “living wage” all suggest a populist focus reflecting a change in voter preferences. The same pressures are also evident in some ways in proposed intervention in the energy sector.
Qualifications
Of course, there are various qualifications to this leftward shift. First, it’s most evident in Anglo countries because it's here that the swing to the right and economic rationalism was most pronounced in the 1980s and 90s and where inequality is more of an issue. Europe never fully bought into the supply side revolution of Thatcher and Reagan and inequality has not risen much. In fact, France under Macron looks to be embarking on its own version of Thatcherism (with the yellow jacket protests proving nothing more than that Macron is actually doing something) which should augur well for its long-term prospects if Macron stays the course. Second, it’s arguable that if the Democrats are to win the US presidential election next year they have to win the mid-west and a socialist presidential candidate may not cut it there. Third, even many on the left are sceptical of ever larger budget deficits – eg in Australia the ALP has been talking of a stronger budgetary position. Finally, there is an argument that a modest move left is necessary to curb the rise in inequality and so save capitalism – much as Keynesian economics “saved” it after the Great Depression.
But what does it all mean for investors?
The risk over time is that a more left leaning electorate will mean a tendency towards bigger government, bigger budget deficits, more regulation, higher effective top marginal tax rates, less globalisation and tougher rules on immigration in some countries. Or it may just mean a stalling in economic reforms. The risk is that it will act as another constraint on productivity and economic growth and eventually see higher inflation if the supply side of the economy suffers.
It's worth putting this in context. The swing in the political pendulum to the right and the economic rationalist/supply side policies – of deregulation, privatisation, smaller government, tax cuts, low inflation, globalisation - that followed along with the peace dividend from the collapse of communism and attractively high starting point dividend yields and bond yields created a powerful tail wind that drove strong returns in shares and bonds starting in the early 1980s.
Now the environment is very different. Starting point investment yields are ultra-low for most assets and a reversal of economic rationalist policies in favour re-regulation, higher taxes and more government risk slowing productivity growth and eventually resulting in higher inflation.
The key point is that the powerful tailwind from the economic rationalist policies (deregulation, smaller government and globalisation) is now behind us and is contributing along with a range of other factors to a much more constrained return environment for investors. Our medium-term projection for the investment return from a balanced mix of assets have been steadily declining in recent years and is now running around 6.4% pa, which is down from over 10% a decade ago.
In this environment, there is a strong case to focus on investment strategies targeting the achievement over time of goals defined in terms of returns, investment income or whatever is required and using a flexible approach to do so as opposed to relying solely on set and forget strategies that depend heavily on market-based returns. There is also a case to look out for assets that may buck the trend of constrained returns as support for economic rationalist policies recede. French shares may be worth looking at!
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

The political pendulum swings back to the left - what it means for investors: Shane Oliver

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Plans for a new resort-style water park in Melbourne’s south-eastern suburb of Dingley Village have been unveiled.
Upon completion, the $100 million project will be the largest indoor water park in the southern hemisphere.
The project is a venture between diversified property group Pellicano and hospitality group Zagame along with Canadian-based leading water park professionals WhiteWater West and local architectural practice Peddle Thorp.
To be known as Zagame’s Wild Water Park, the facility will provide 18,200 square metres of indoor and 20,000 square metres of outdoor water attractions.
The park will include a 180-degree semi-circular stand-up surf pool, a tunnel-like wave ski-slide complete with video controls and an indoor-outdoor ‘lazy river’.
The park will utilise an eWater system, solar power technology, systems for the collection and reuse of rainwater, extensive plantation of indigenous wetland vegetation and a concentration on composting, recycling and biodegradable processes. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/5/Pellicano_Water%20park_Render%201.jpg" alt="">
Pellicano managing director Nando Pellicano said it will provide visitors and the wider community with both fun and education. 
“Pellicano has owned this site for over 30 years and is thrilled to reveal our plans to inject much-needed, year-round, all-weather fun into Melbourne’s family entertainment landscape,” he said.
“At Pellicano we consistently aim to deliver high-quality, dynamic projects and we  have made every effort to incorporate this ideology of excellence in the planning stages of this project.” 
Pellicano and Zagame previously collaborated on the regeneration of Paradise Resort on the Gold Coast.
Zagame Corporation’s director Robert Zagame says partnering with Pellicano for this project was an exciting opportunity for the company.
“This partnership was a natural fit for Zagame’s; as a well-established family-owned business, Pellicano’s values align closely with our own and we both continue to maintain a benchmark of excellence in all our business dealings,” Zagame said.
“With both companies established in Victoria, we embrace any opportunity to position our home state as the place to be, and we’re excited to witness the economic benefits a major tourism project such as this will deliver to our home.” 
“Upon completion we will not only be opening our doors to leisure and fun seekers but to primary, secondary and tertiary students who will benefit from behind-the-scenes exposure to the best-practice engineering and technology which will be on display.” 
WhiteWater West’ s President and CEO, Geoff Chutter, said it was thrilled to be part of the project.
“We’re proud that our local branch, WhiteWater West Australia will be partnering with Australian companies to build this ground-breaking water park that features some of our most iconic rides and will provide huge entertainment value for families,” Chutter said.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Plans for largest indoor water park in the southern hemisphere in Dingley Village revealed 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The deepening market downturn is starting to weigh more heavily on consumer sentiment towards housing. Both the complexion of this impact and the extent to which market weakening has outstripped weakness in housing-related sentiment provide important clues about some of the dynamics at play.
Consumers’ housing-related sentiment has deteriorated since November with negatives around price expectations and elevated risk aversion more than offsetting the boost from improving affordability. While sentiment overall is downbeat, the market performance has been markedly weaker than sentiment over the last year, suggesting that other factors are impacting. In particular, a tightening in loan standards from some lenders may have compounded what were already negative market dynamics following a drop in investor activity and initial price correction.
Nationally, the Westpac Melbourne Institute ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index has slipped 1.8% since November but is still up 8.6% year on year. Improving affordability continues to see a lift in NSW and Vic, the latter reaching a five year high in Feb. However buyer sentiment is still sub-par in these states while it has become a little more unsettled in other states.
Price expectations have been the big mover. The Westpac–MI Consumer House Price Expectations Index posted a sharp 11% drop over the three months to February, hitting a new historical low since we began compiling the index in May 2009. Weakness remains more pronounced in NSW and Vic, with just over half of consumers in these states expecting prices to be lower in a year’s time. That said, the more positive views in other states are also starting to show signs of softening with notable pull backs in Qld and WA.
These two aspects of housing-related sentiment highlight the ‘dynamics’ of the housing cycle. Price declines are currently dominating with negative expectations around prices likely to continue feeding into investor weakness and encourage buyers to delay purchases. At some point though, improving affordability should generate a bigger lift in buyer sentiment and a pick-up in demand that stabilises the market – exactly where that point is and how we get there remain more open questions.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Housing-pulse-bite-2019-02-1.jpg" alt="">
Matthew Hassan is senior economist at Westpac. 
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2019.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac Housing Pulse</a>. 
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What consumer sentiment is telling us about the housing downturn: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Dexus, Australia's biggest office landlord, has taken full control over the MLC Centre in Martin Place.
The ASX-listed group already owned half of the building, and have implemented a purchase right over the remaining half that was <a href="/expert-insights/investing/half-of-harry-seidlers-mlc-centre-to-be-sold-by-gpt">first listed in January</a>.
It is believed Dexus have paid $800 million.
Just last week Savills Australia’s Ian Hetherington, Simon Fenn and Ben Azar, and Cushman &amp; Wakefield’s Josh Cullen and Mark Hansen were been appointed to market the landmark asset.
The 50% stake, which was owned by the GPT Group, has a book value of $725 million.
The proceeds will be directed to new office and residential towers GPT at Melbourne Central shopping centre and at Parramatta.
GPT chief Bob Johnston said the group’s investment in the MLC centre had delivered investors an “exceptional” return.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Dexus take full control of MLC Centre

How climate change could affect the economy and monetary policy: RBA's Guy Debelle

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Housing affordability supposedly ranks as a top-three Federal election issue, after the cost of living and healthcare and ageing, according to a survey by the Housing Industry Association.
Affordability ranked ahead of immigration and the environment, concluded the JWS Research survey of 1500 people.
"The importance of home ownership to Australians couldn't be clearer. Now more than ever, home ownership matters," the Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon noted.
It comes as first home buyers have been more active in the market with Sydney housing around 10% more affordable than this time last year.
A typical Sydney dwelling now costs $789,000, below the $884,000 it was early last year, according to CoreLogic. The biggest Sydney declines have been in the municipalities of Ryde and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Of course, it is not just those aspiring to first home ownership that worry about affordability, as separate polling research in Tony Abbott's seat of Warringah on Sydney's Northern beaches indicated.
The concerns of Warringah voters focused around infrastructure, especially roads and traffic congestion, population growth, environmental concerns, but also housing affordability for their children.
The focus groups, sponsored by the University of Canberra’s Democracy 2025 project and conducted by Landscape Research, suggested older Warringah voters were more engaged, more readily able to discuss issues in federal politics, while younger voters have largely tuned out, feeling powerless.
Reardon said the Australian dream of owning a home was "still embedded in the psyche of Australians". He adds with a federal election imminent, it was important to recognise that 71% of people believe governments have an important role in helping Australians achieve their dream.
Interestingly, the HIA research found that home ownership was viewed as especially important to achieving financial stability in retirement.
This comes as there's continuing debate about whether first home buyers should be allowed to access their superannuation.
It flared again recently after a key recommendation from Kenneth Hayne's Financial Services Inquiry.
Hayne says superannuation should be solely to look after Australians in retirement, not first home purchases.
Any incoming Federal Labor Government will accordingly phase out the Coalition government's First Home Super Saver Scheme that allows first timers to access their super accounts.
The scheme, which enables first time buyers to access extra savings put into their superannuation account, was introduced in the 2017 budget by then treasurer Scott Morrison. He argued it would help young people accelerate their savings to buy into markets.
Between the start of the program on July 1 last year and February this year, around 2400 people have made requests to access their super top-up.
That equated to around 4% of the first home buyers who'd secured a home loan over the period.
They have sought the release equating to a helpful $12,000 per person.
Labor voted against the scheme when it was created, but assures current users of the scheme they will not be affected by their policy. 
It is one of many housing schemes ditched by governments in recent times as they come and go.
We have seen off the National Rental Affordability Scheme and the First Home Saver Account schemes too.
I'd suggest one reason for the young voter feeling powerless was this constant changing tides with policy.
Navigating the housing market with confidence, for any age, requires policy consistency from our federal leaders.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Navigating the housing market with confidence requires policy consistency from our federal leaders

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Joel Cann has resigned from Aspen Group to pursue another opportunity.
His resignation will take effect on Friday 12 April 2019.
Clive Appleton, chairman of Aspen Group, has thanked Cann for his efforts over the past two and a half years.
The listed property minnow Aspen Group appointed the property veteran in September 2016.
Cann joined Aspen from AMB Capital Partners, where he was the founding managing director.
Last month Aspen Group announced its financial results for the year ended 31 December 2018 recording a statutory profit of $0.4 million, the significant components of which include:
<ul>
<li>
Operating profit after tax of $1.5 million
Offset by:
</li>
<li>
Revaluation decrement of $0.7 million;
</li>
<li>
Acquisition costs incurred of $0.2 million; and
</li>
<li>
Professional fees of $0.2 million.
</li>
</ul>
Cann said 1H FY19 continued the significant steps taken towards a goal of being a major owner and operator in the Australian affordable accommodation sector.
It acquired its sixth tourism park, Highway 1 in Adelaide SA, which was settled in Q2 FY19.
The acquisition was valued at $23 million.
He noted headwinds at a number of assets including Darwin FreeSpirit where corporate accommodation demand fell in line with reduced major project activity, Adelaide came off of a strong FY18 period that include Ashes and major event activity whilst Tomago reduced available inventory pending the redevelopment work to be undertaken in that business.
Development activity significantly advanced during the half with the majority of civil works completed at Four Lanterns in Leppington NSW.
There are 11 residences on site with sales activity resulting in five confirmed sales.
It has also commenced initial works at Tomago in preparation for stage 1 of the 52-site expansion.
The sale of its final non-core asset at Midland WA was completed during 1H FY19, bringing to a conclusion the restructure of the group to an affordable accommodation provider.
The business finished in a net debt position of $16.3 million at the end of the year, post the Highway 1 acquisition, and has $25 million of capacity to deploy towards future acquisitions and investments.
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Joel Cann resigns as listed accommodation firm Aspen Group's chief executive

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A fully leased Circular Quay restaurant space has been offered to the market.
Cushman &amp; Wakefield hold the listing for Lot 17 overlooking Sydney Harbour.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-retail-nsw-sydney-503106778" target="_blank">17/1A Macquarie Street</a> in Opera Quays, the space is currently leased to Buckley's Craft Beer Bar where it forms a part of the bar/restaurant.
It is a long term lease, 2010 to 2024, with a net income of $294,801 pa.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/12/Buckleys%202.JPG" alt="">
The gross rent is set to increase to $410,000 from 1 April 2020.
Set on 60 sqm the property is strata titled.
The property is for sale by expressions of interest closing March 26 2019.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Leased Circular Quay restaurant space for sale

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We expect industrial assets to outperform Australia's (Aaa stable) broader commercial property market over the next several years. This expectation, in large part, reflects our view that the sector will benefit from a combination of accelerated growth in e-commerce activity and technological innovation that create a wider range of applications for industrial assets, making them more resilient than in previous property cycles. State governments' large infrastructure spending will also improve connectivity and drive valuation growth.
We believe that these trends most benefit A-REITs with large, diversified, well-located industrial portfolios, particularly with large exposure to the tightly held Sydney market, including Goodman Group (Baa1 stable) and its largest fund Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership (GAIP, Baa1 stable) and Charter Hall Group's (Baa1 stable) Charter Hall Prime Industrial Fund (CPIF, Baa1 stable). We also expect that diversified A-REITs, such as Mirvac Group (A3 stable), Stockland Group (A3 stable), Dexus (A3 stable), and GPT Group (A2 stable), will continue to increase their industrial exposure to take advantage of these trends.
Demand for industrial assets will continue to grow
. This is driven by a combination of factors, mainly: (1) the growth in e-commerce and related industries as a result of the increasing popularity of online shopping; (2) technological advances that offer supply-chain efficiencies and create demand for industrial space outside traditional warehousing/storage; (3) large investment programs in public infrastructure that improve transport efficiency and connectivity; and (4) the strong underlying fundamentals of the Australian economy with 26 years of uninterrupted economic growth, rising private consumption and solid labor market fundamentals.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/21/INDUSTRIAL%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Total current demand for industrial space exceeds both the supply and long-term demand averages. Major metropolitan areas continue to suffer from a shortage of available industrial zoned land, especially in densely populated areas and around key transport nodes. Industrial transaction volumes continued to trend lower in fiscal year 2018, ended 30 June 2018, (Exhibit 2), reflecting the diminishing availability of quality industrial assets as well as a limited land-supply pipeline. The shortage has been further exacerbated by the active rezoning of industrial land towards alternative uses, particularly residential.
The high demand for industrial assets has benefited A-REITs with industrial exposure as land values appreciated across major metropolitan areas. Sydney values increased by around 50% over the last three years, followed by Melbourne and Brisbane at around 35% and 25%, respectively (Exhibit 3). Higher land prices have put downward pressure on A-REIT cap rates (Exhibit 2). We expect cap rates will likely compress further over the next 6-12 months, as rising rents support asset values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/21/exhibit%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Occupancy levels continued to rise for rated A-REITs as tenants rushed to secure lease space before rents increase materially. Occupancy levels were at around 98% for the 12 months ended 30 June 2018 - an all-time high for the industrial sector. We expect occupancy levels to remain at around 97%-98% over the next 12-18 months.
We believe the elevated demand for industrial assets will continue over the next 2-3 years with land prices and rents to rise faster in locations where there is higher population density and higher competition for alternative uses. We expect A-REITs with exposure to the Eastern Seaboard assets, where around 80% of Australia's population is located, to outperform others. This includes companies such as GAIP (100% portfolio), Mirvac (100%), Dexus (99%), Stockland (94%) and CPIF (86%).
Of this group, A-REITs with overweight exposure to Sydney, such as GAIP (84% portfolio), Mirvac (100%) and Stockland (69%), are best positioned to derive above-average levels of rental growth due to the city's superior economic fundamentals, higher take-up levels, and lack of available high quality industrial land relative to other major metropolitan areas. We consider South Sydney to be the most resilient among sub-markets, as the region is supported by major strategic transport gateways (Sydney Airport Finance Company Pty Ltd (Baa1 stable) and Port Botany) and the close proximity to Sydney's wealthy inner-metro region.
At the same time, as major ports on the Eastern Seaboard (Port of Melbourne, Lonsdale Finance Pty Limited, Baa2 stable), Port Botany, Port of Brisbane continue to expand due to the pick-up in the freight activity, we expect higher demand for industrial assets located close to these infrastructure assets.
As large blocks of land become harder to secure in the Sydney area, failing to accommodate the full footprint of international players, we expect tenants to increasingly look for comparable and cheaper options in Melbourne and Brisbane, servicing Sydney out of these cities.
Population growth and solid economic fundamentals will support an acceleration in demand growth for industrial assets over the next several years. Meanwhile, increasing diversification of industrial asset usage and tenants, reflecting e-commerce penetration and technology advancements, will drive underlying demand.
Increased e-commerce activity will remain a major driver of demand for industrial property -- and will reshape the portfolios of A-REITs We consider the growth in e-commerce as one of the major drivers of the significant level of investor demand for industrial assets in Australia, particularly as industries associated with residential construction enter a slowdown. We expect the growth in online shopping to accelerate over the next 2-3 years, which should have a positive spillover effect on demand for industrial space.
We see large untapped potential for the e-commerce sector as the penetration rate in Australia lags those of other developed nations like the US and UK (Exhibit 4). Online as a percentage of total sales in Australia was around 9% in 2018, which lags the US by around four years and the UK by seven years. The US and UK penetration rates are now around 13% and 17%, respectively.
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The growth of online retail in Canada also provides evidence for increasing online penetration in Australia. Both Australia and Canada have similar logistical challenges of servicing densely populated urban areas with large distances between cities. Canada's e-commerce sales as a percentage of total sales was much less than Australia's in 2012, however, it has caught up with Australia since then.
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Demand for space will be driven by the expanding needs of online players such as Amazon.com, Inc. (A3 positive) and Alibaba Group Holding Limited (A1 Stable). A-REIT issuer feedback suggests that e-commerce retailers usually require more space than traditional retailers as they need to stock a greater range of readily available products. Further, we expect supporting industries such as transportation, warehousing, logistics, postal and third-party logistics (3PL) to expand to address the growth in e-commerce.
As consumers continue shifting their purchases online and demand faster delivery at minimized costs, we expect to see an increase in demand for smaller fulfillment centres that are located closer to end-consumers. These centres are used for last-mile delivery and are supported by larger distribution centres located in outer locations. We also believe that increasing land scarcity and surging land prices in densely populated urban areas will increase the usage of multi-storey warehouses, helping to ease the pressure of delivering items to consumers as quickly as possible. Therefore, we expect assets in densely populated areas or with proximity or access to key transport nodes to continue to rise in value.
Demand will also come from brick-and-mortar retailers that will require new distribution space and capabilities as they continue to invest in digital and expand their online offerings. At the same time, as store sales growth lags online growth, we expect physical retailers to continue rationalizing their existing retail footprints, putting pressure on the retail assets of A-REITs.
To capitalise on strong demand, diversified landlords with industrial exposure will likely leverage off their relationships with retail tenants to accommodate the tenants' needs in industrial space. We expect companies like Charter Hall, Stockland, Mirvac, and GPT to benefit the most due to their large exposure to big retail groups like Wesfarmers Limited (A3 stable), Coles Group Limited (Baa1 stable) and Woolworths Group Limited (Baa2 stable).
The growth in e-commerce will most benefit large pure-play industrial A-REITs such as GAIP and CPIF and those diversified players with large industrial exposures such as Stockland and Dexus. Further, we expect other A-REITs to rebalance their portfolios towards the industrial sector over the next 2-3 years, by shifting away from retail as negative sentiment impacts this property segment. We have already seen A-REITs announcing this shift in focus, with Mirvac, Stockland and GPT planning to increase the allocation to the sector. Dexus is partnering with Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC to create an AUD2 billion unlisted logistics property trust, seeded with assets from Dexus' portfolio with an active development and acquisition mandate.
Technology and innovation will continue to create additional opportunities for landlords and tenants
We believe that advances in technology are creating additional opportunities for both tenants as well as industrial landlords. Tenants will benefit from utilizing technology, such as big data, cloud software, machine learning, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence, drones, robotics, and autonomous driving, to optimize their operations and create more efficient distribution networks.
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At the same time, technological advancements provide a range of benefits for the industrial A-REITs. Increasingly sophisticated industrial assets can accommodate a wider range of uses, such as e-commerce, data centres, high-tech logistics, health care, “dark stores”,1 etc. Increasing applications of industrial space will improve demand beyond the historical tenant base and provide greater tenant sector diversity, reducing the risk of a correlated downturn among A-REITs' customer base, increasing the pool of potential future tenants to fill vacant space.
This also means the sector is less reliant on traditional “blue-collar” manufacturing industries that face structural decline in Australia, primarily due to high domestic labor costs. We view this diversification as a significant credit positive for industrial A-REITs, providing resilience to the cash flows and earnings through the property cycle.
Large investments in technology by tenants mean longer payback periods for these investments. We view this as positive for landlords as this will make moving facilities less attractive and will translate into longer weighted average lease expiry (WALE) through longer new leases, better retention and reduced vacancy risk. For example, some of the largest Australian retailers like Woolworths and Coles have signed 20-year leases for their respective distribution centres, putting extensive amounts of capital in internal fitouts and automation systems.
This trend for longer leases might moderate the recent declines in WALE across rated REITs, which, in part, was caused by the large amount of leases signed by 3PL companies that sign leases with an average duration of 3-5 years.
We expect A-REITs to also benefit from technological advancements in building and construction as properties now can be constructed more quickly and cheaply, offsetting the rising costs of land. Moreover, the increased application of green technologies such as solar panels should provide A-REITs with an additional source of income from selling energy to the tenants as well as lower their own cost base in an environment of rising energy expenses.
Solid economic conditions and large infrastructure investment on the Eastern Seaboard will support the long-term demand for logistics We expect Australian economic growth, increased trade flows in Asia and large public infrastructure investment on the Eastern Seaboard to support long-term demand for logistics.
Robust economic conditions in Australia with over 26 years of uninterrupted growth will continue to be underpinned by (1) the current outlook for global economy, and particularly Asia, where a lot of Australia's key trade partners are located; (2) solid labor market and wage growth stabilizing; (3) relatively low Australian dollar boosting net exports, and; (4) strong rates of population growth.
Increased trade flows are expected to have a positive impact on industrial property demand, especially for assets that are located close to key infrastructure such as ports, motorways, airports and intermodal terminals.
Public infrastructure spending is expected to accelerate over the next 2-3 years with the value of announced projects at a record high (Exhibit 5). The state governments of New South Wales (Aaa stable), Queensland (Aa1 stable) and Victoria (Aaa stable) plan to increase their respective infrastructure spending programs the most, although we believe the major benefits of this spending for industrial assets will be in the longer term. This will be further supported by the Australian Government's (Aaa stable) commitment to spend more than AUD75 billion over the next 10 years on transport infrastructure across Australia under the National Infrastructure Plan.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/21/exhibit%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/exhibit%205.jpg" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/21/exhibit%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/21/exhibit%206.jpg" alt="">
We expect A-REITs which focus on NSW and particularly Western Sydney to benefit the most as this is where the largest investments will be made over the forecast period. Spending includes large projects, such as the Western Sydney Airport project (set to open 2026) and Western Sydney Rail. Melbourne will also see some benefits from projects like Fisherman's Bend urban renewal project.
Overall, we think that infrastructure improvements will benefit both the tenants, through improved transport efficiency, connectivity and productivity, as well as the industrial A-REITs that will see valuation uplift for properties located next to the upgraded networks. Further, industrial landlords will see continued demand from industries that are supporting these infrastructure projects.
Moody's provides credit ratings, research, tools and in-depth analysis on the widest possible range of debt market topics.
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