Apartment buyers in New South Wales are set to gain a decade of insurance-backed protection against major building defects, after the NSW Parliament passed the Fair Trading and Building Legislation Amendment Bill 2026.&nbsp;

The Bill establishes decennial defect insurance, known in the market as Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), as an alternative to the existing two-year strata building bond. It cleared the Legislative Council with amendments on Tuesday evening (August 4, 2026), with the Legislative Assembly agreeing to those amendments shortly after.

Under the reform, eligible developers can satisfy their statutory bond obligation by taking out an approved decennial-style policy that gives owners 10 years of cover for major structural defects from completion, claimable directly, without first having to pursue developers or builders through costly legal action.&nbsp;

The change forms the final tranche of amendments arising from the 2021 statutory review of the Strata Schemes Management Act 2015 and related legislation.

Resilience Insurance, which originated the cover in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022, welcomed the passage and credited the NSW Government for delivering it.

“This is protection apartment buyers have needed for a long time, and the credit for delivering it belongs to the NSW Government,”&nbsp;said Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance.

“Minister Chanthivong and his team have shown real leadership in replacing an outdated two-year bond with cover that matches the lifespan of the buildings people are buying into. Reform like this is what good, evidence-based regulation looks like.”

Resilience has delivered LDI in NSW since 2022, protecting thousands of apartments, giving the State, and now the country, real-world evidence of how decade-long, no-fault protection works in practice.

The reform also places NSW within a wider national shift.

NSW is the third jurisdiction to put decennial cover into law. The ACT legislated for it in 2024, with the scheme taking effect in late 2025, and Victoria passed its own framework on 17 June. Between them, the three cover the majority of Australia's apartment market.

The reform commences once the legislation is proclaimed, which is expected in the coming weeks. From that point, developers of Class 2 residential apartment buildings can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial policy in place of the bond.

Buyers who purchased into projects that took out the cover early are among the first in the country to take keys to apartments carrying decade-long structural protection.

“With the legislation passed, the focus now turns to making it work for buyers,”&nbsp;Nugent said.

“There are already thousands of apartments in NSW covered by this insurance, bought by developers who moved early. The question every buyer should be asking in a display suite is a simple one: does this building come with 10-year defect cover, and who stands behind it?&nbsp;

“We look forward to working with the Government and the Building Commission in coming weeks as the framework moves to implementation, and to sharing what we have learned over the past four years so the protection reaches owners as smoothly and quickly as possible.”

Other states are working through their own reform programs. Western Australia has indicated that decennial cover is within consideration a later stage of its reform sequence, and Queensland has been examining the settings as it looks at the development pipeline ahead of the 2032 Olympics.

Resilience Insurance acknowledges the NSW Government’s continued focus on strengthening consumer protection while supporting housing delivery across the State.

Fast Facts: What the reform means

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Proven at scale:&nbsp;Decennial cover has operated in NSW since 2022, protecting thousand of apartments.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">10 years of cover:&nbsp;Protection for major structural defects runs for a decade from completion, claimable directly and with no legal action required.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">An alternative to the bond:&nbsp;Eligible developers can meet their statutory obligation with an approved decennial-style policy in place of the 2% strata building bond.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Part of a national shift:&nbsp;The ACT has had decennial provisions in force since 2025 and Victoria passed its framework in June. NSW now joins them.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">No-fault, first resort:&nbsp;Owners corporations claim directly from the insurer without first having to establish who is liable for the defect.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost-competitive:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the 2% bond while offering broader, longer protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market position:&nbsp;Resilience originated LDI in Australia and has delivered it in NSW since 2022.</li>
</ul>

Fast Facts: What is Resilience LDI?

<ul style="color:#222222; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:small; font-style:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; text-align:start; white-space:normal; background-color:#ffffff; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-color:initial">
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Resilience Latent Defects Insurance (LDI):&nbsp;Covers major structural defects for 10 years from completion.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Consumer-first:&nbsp;Direct claim access, no need for lengthy legal action.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Cost advantage:&nbsp;At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the traditional 2% Strata Bond while offering broader protection.</li>
	<li style="margin-left:15px; font-family:Aptos, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12pt; color:#000000">Market leader:&nbsp;&nbsp;Resilience Insurance originated LDI in Australia and is the national market leader.</li>
</ul>

Joel Robinson

NSW parliament passes 10-year defect insurance laws for new apartment buyers

Builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mcnab-developments">McNab</a> has wasted little time reshaping one of South Brisbane's most significant undeveloped apartment sites after acquiring the property earlier this year.&nbsp;

McNab has lodged plans to scrap an existing approval for two 30-storey towers and instead deliver a single 28-storey residential building, preserving part of the site for a future development opportunity.

The proposal, lodged over <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-peel-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">64 Peel Street and 9 Cordelia Street</a>, is for a residential-led mixed-use development comprising 124 apartments above a landscaped podium, alongside a boundary realignment that preserves part of the land for a future residential project.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="743bf564-3f8f-45fc-b8d3-bbf18f5b628f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20Peel%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=EhCxGrVn_VFH3qTbKnI4WppGwaMnOn0t" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a>, the development will deliver 119 two-bedroom and five three-bedroom apartments across 23 residential levels. A five-level podium will accommodate 135 car spaces, while the ground floor will include a 66 sqm commercial tenancy, an activated residential lobby with work-from-home spaces, and a publicly accessible landscaped plaza linking Cordelia and Peel streets.&nbsp;

Communal amenities will span Level 6 and the rooftop, including indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, a swimming pool, barbecue facilities, kitchen and dining areas, lawn space, sauna, steam room and yoga facilities.

The application also proposes a boundary realignment to create a standalone 1,290 sqm development lot while retaining an adjacent parcel for future redevelopment, allowing the balance of the site to contribute additional housing over time.

Hayball said the architecture has been shaped by the site's elevated corner position at the intersection of Peel and Cordelia streets and Brisbane's subtropical climate.

The design incorporates generous landscaped setbacks, a masonry podium wrapped with planting, large north-facing balconies, and a slender tower profile intended to maximise natural light, cross ventilation and long-range views. The rooftop has been conceived as a wellness-focused retreat overlooking Brisbane, with amenities positioned to capture views towards Mount Coot-tha and the CBD.

<img alt="First look: McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5f99e84-6ad8-4a87-82d1-869685b754d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/mcnab%20tower%20perspective.png?VersionId=Gw0IuJaSAlk.tvGBxInhZOcQAdIB..2b" />

The planning submission positions the proposal as a response to both changing market conditions and Brisbane's Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning reforms.

McNab acquired the site after the previous approval was granted, with the existing scheme no longer reflecting current residential market demands, economic conditions, construction challenges, construction efficiencies or the quality of development outcome now being pursued, the planning report noted.

McNab continues to expand its residential development pipeline across Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The developer recently launched The Tannery in West End, securing more than 60 per cent of apartments before the project's public release. It is also delivering Elements Budds Beach in Surfers Paradise and Lucia Highgate Hill, an eight-apartment boutique development overlooking the Brisbane River.

McNab resets decade-old South Brisbane approval with 124-apartment tower

A steeply sloping Bellevue Hill site is set to accommodate a new mid-rise apartment development, with plans lodged for 20 homes that respond to the site's dramatic topography.

The proposal for the consolidated land at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/138a-140-bellevue-road-bellevue-hill-nsw-2023">138A-140 Bellevue Road</a> has been designed by Sydney architecture practice Common Office, which has used the site’s substantial fall to distribute the building’s scale and unlock 20 apartments without presenting the full height to the street.&nbsp;

“The unique design strategy leverages the site’s substantial topographical fall to facilitate increased density, presenting a seven-storey profile to Bellevue Road while rising to 10 storeys at the rear,” Common Office said in its architectural design report.

The apartment mix spans one, two, three- and four-bedroom residences. Four two-bedroom apartments are designated as affordable housing, while the plans also include two adaptable dwellings. The mix is majority three-beds, with the typical three-bed apartment offering around 144 sqm internally, with balconies of around 15 sqm.

The affordable housing component represents 15 per cent of the residential floor area and allows the project to access additional height and floor space under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions. The site also falls within the inner area of the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy because it is within 400 metres walking distance of Double Bay Town Centre.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1230d0f-3bfa-4a11-abaf-0928c66ef345" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da.png?VersionId=dZeMK3P.OutGjN8ycjsxm8uNsj_QFWQv" />

Common Office has arranged the building around a masonry podium and a lighter upper volume, drawing on two recurring elements of Bellevue Hill’s established architecture: sandstone bases and the vertical proportions of local Inter-war Art Deco apartment buildings.

“The proposal is governed by a holistic design language that reconciles the solid horizontal masonry of the neighbourhood’s podiums with the elegant verticality of its Art Deco heritage,” the architect said.

“The building maintains a consistent rhythmic logic utilising deep recesses and a sophisticated material transition to break down the 10-storey scale into a series of articulated, human-scale volumes.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0147f503-1af1-4d51-97fb-c2f1cba63a9d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20bldg.png?VersionId=GoW7q3NlK67OpnePXhk7zvklrlKb72Qc" />

Large-format sandstone tiles will define the lower levels, establishing a robust base that negotiates the change in elevation from Bellevue Road. Above, red-tinted precast concrete frames, recessed balconies, anodised aluminium screens and expanded metal details will create a more vertically expressed façade. Integrated planter beds will introduce greenery across balcony edges and recessed sections of the building.

The elongated northern façade has been divided into three recessed vertical masses to reduce its perceived length. Triangular window elements and metal privacy screens reference the geometry of nearby Art Deco buildings while controlling overlooking toward surrounding homes. The southern elevation will incorporate further privacy screening, landscaped edges and deep balconies to maintain light and ventilation.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for topography-led affordable housing project in Bellevue Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e8679cf1-18bc-4447-8a0f-0052b94ab83c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bellevue%20da%20rooftop.png?VersionId=5SQqQqRFf76rvE2p1TbxJSweMN70AIbc" />

Private and communal landscaping is distributed throughout the development. A landscaped garden apartment is positioned within the lower portion of the site, while a communal terrace on Level 5 will include a central timber deck, barbecue facilities, resident planting plots and areas for outdoor dining and informal gatherings.

Common Office described the terrace as an elevated sanctuary designed to capture district views and sunlight. Its planting strategy incorporates endemic species associated with the Eastern Suburbs Banksia Scrub, extending the landscape vertically through the building and providing habitat for local flora and fauna.

A second communal outdoor area is proposed at roof level, with built-in seating, paved gathering areas and perimeter planting.

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction. Positive Investment Enterprise is delivering the 16-apartment Kew Palm House on Birriga Road, while Chanine Developments is also under construction at Florian, a 36-apartment project on Banksia Road.

&nbsp;

Bellevue Hill is enjoying renewed momentum in the new apartment market, with several boutique developments recently launched and currently under construction.

First Look: Apartment development pitched for Bellevue Hill, Double Bay fringe

South Brisbane's apartment pipeline continues to build momentum, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/trk-property-group">TRK Property Group</a> lodging plans for a 161-apartment tower on Montague Road as developers accelerate investment across the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

The proposal for 176–186 Montague Road would replace an existing office building with a 20-storey residential tower designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, adding to a growing pipeline of high-density projects reshaping one of Brisbane's fastest-evolving inner-city precincts.

The project has been conceived as a "living building", featuring a flowing tower form, extensive vertical landscaping, and generous communal spaces that respond to the evolving Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct.

TRK Property Group Development Director Matt Kan said the project reflected the confidence developers have in South Brisbane's long-term future.

"South Brisbane is entering an incredibly exciting period, and we see Montague Road sitting right at the heart of that evolution," Kan said.

"With the former Visy site directly opposite us and significant investment planned throughout the broader Kurilpa precinct, there is a real sense of momentum around this part of the city and what it will become over the coming years.

"For TRK, this is an opportunity to be part of that next chapter and deliver a project that responds to where the precinct is heading, while contributing to the continued evolution of Brisbane's river edge."

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="590fe1ad-f892-4446-a679-80e33a16d029" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20tower%20facade.png?VersionId=uOJStrcKpyHFcPE1w6_9SMAFzVMCcZll" />

The scheme includes a mix of one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, incorporating multi-purpose rooms in selected residences to provide additional flexibility for home offices or expanded living areas. The proposed mix comprises 15 one-bedroom, 13 one-bedroom plus MPR, 73 two-bedroom, 26 two-bedroom plus MPR, 30 three-bedroom, and four four-bedroom apartments.

Rather than adopting a conventional rectilinear tower, COX Architecture has developed a sculpted form inspired by the movement of the Brisbane River.

"The proposal has been designed by COX Architecture as a 'living building' that responds to the site's riverine setting, floodplain history and evolving urban context within the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct," the planning report states.

"The architectural form draws from the fluid nature of the Brisbane River, with a curved and undulating tower form that creates a varied architectural edge and avoids a conventional rectilinear tower expression."

The podium has also been designed as an architectural feature rather than a conventional parking structure, with cascading planting, screening and natural-toned materials softening its appearance. Resident parking is elevated above ground level to address the site's flood constraints, while habitable apartments sit above flood planning levels. Upper-level communal facilities are designed to accommodate shelter-in-place arrangements during major flood events.

<img alt="First look: TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="01fa15d0-90df-46c7-9555-7941fc45373c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/TRK%20podium.png?VersionId=mHyua.w1pHGBt9qEdWzrlsv.leztUCwO" />

Communal amenity is a major focus of the proposal. Around 1,815 sqm of shared resident space is proposed across the ground floor, level 19 and the rooftop, including co-working areas, indoor and outdoor recreation spaces, wellness facilities, dining and gathering areas, lawn spaces, a rooftop pool and spa, and extensive landscaping. At street level, a landscaped forecourt and approximately 345 sqm of publicly accessible open space along Montague Road are intended to improve the pedestrian experience while activating the building's frontage.

The development will provide 163 car spaces, including 152 resident bays and 11 visitor spaces, together with 144 bicycle spaces incorporating resident storage, visitor parking, bicycle maintenance facilities and e-mobility charging infrastructure.

The site sits within one of Brisbane's fastest-changing inner-city precincts, less than two kilometres from the CBD and within easy reach of South Bank, West End, the Queensland Cultural Centre and extensive public transport connections. The Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct planning framework is encouraging higher-density residential development to help meet Brisbane's housing supply targets while supporting walkable, transit-oriented neighbourhoods.

TRK Property joins South Brisbane apartment surge with Montague Road tower plans

Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The pre-election negativity that hit real estate in the first half of 2019 impacted previously busy Regional NSW markets, with the lowest number of growth markets in two years. It nevertheless remains one of the nation’s busiest market jurisdictions. 
And price performance has been good in many locations, with 60% of Regional NSW markets delivering median price growth in the past 12 months.
Regional NSW continues to provide a stark contrast to Sydney. While many sectors of the Sydney market have been in decline, the cities and towns of Regional NSW have proved resilient – even though not as strong as in 2018.
Last year Hotspotting’s Spring 2018 survey found 70 locations with rising demand in Regional NSW and the Autumn 2019 identified 61 growth markets. But this latest Winter 2019 found only 40 growth markets – still solid by national standards but well down on the levels of the past year or two.
The sales data on which this survey is based pre-dates the Federal Election in mid-May and the subsequent positive events such as interest rate reductions, easier finance (the APRA changes) and the tax cuts.
So any locations that delivered rising sales activity in that pre-election climate have strong claims to being regarded as growth markets.
There are still growth markets in and around Newcastle (pictured above), although this market overall appears well past its peak. The Newcastle and Lake Macquarie LGAs both have suburbs with growing sales demand, but they are outnumbered by plateau markets.
But locations near Newcastle, such as the Port Stephens LGA, remain buoyant, led by Anna Bay, Medowie and Salamander Bay. Some sections of the Hunter Valley still have momentum, including Cessnock and Muswellbrook.
The same cannot be said for the Central Coast. Two years ago, this was the strongest market in NSW but it’s now well past its peak. Bateau Bay and Budgewoi still have some forward momentum, but the Central Coast now has 19 plateau markets and seven we classify as declining markets (including Toukley, Gwandalan, North Gosford, Point Frederick, San Remo and The Entrance). We note also the decline in median prices in many Central Coast locations.
Similarly, other regional centres close to Sydney have passed their peaks and started to decline, including Wollongong, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains (although Katoomba remains busy). The Byron Bay market is another to have lost its mojo.
The growth markets in Regional NSW are now found further afield. The Tweed LGA at the Queensland border is particularly busy at the moment, headed by Casuarina, Kingscliff and Terranora. Quarterly sales in Kingscliff have been 59, 61, 67 and 70 – and its median house price has risen 19% to $1,025,000.
At the other end of the state, Wagga Wagga continues to be a market leader, led by upwardly mobile suburbs like Gobbagombalin, Kooringal and Lake Albert. Quarterly sales in Wagga Wagga (the suburb) have been 37, 39, 48 and 50 in the past 12 months – and its median price has started to rise, up 4% in the past 12 months.
And the Eurobodalla LGA in the South Coast region has some busy markets, notably Catalina and Malua Bay.
A large number of smaller and distant regional centres have growth markets, including Grafton, Forbes, Griffith, Wingham, Mudgee and Gulgong in the Mid Western LGA, Leeton, Lismore, Nambucca Heads and Young.
There has been plenty of price growth in Regional NSW markets, though not as prolific as in our previous survey.
Three months in our Autumn 2019 report we commented: “The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our survey have recorded growth in the past year.”
This Winter 2019 survey finds that 61% of house markets and 53% of unit markets have median prices higher than a year ago. 
Locations with strong price growth include three locations in the Tweed LGA – Casuarina (up 21% to $1,150,000), Kingscliff (up 19% to $1,025,000) and Tweed Heads South (up 15% to $585,000).
But the biggest growth has been recorded by Berry in the Shoalhaven region, up 25% to $1,300,000.
A number of apartment markets have recorded median price growth above 20%, including Nambucca Heads, Ballina, Sawtell and Taree.
At the other end of the scale, many Central Coast locations have recorded declines in their median prices. House markets to fall include those in Wyoming (8%), Woy Woy (5%), Umina Beach (6%), North Gosford (7%), Long Jetty (9%), Wyong (6%) and Gorokan (8%). 
Among the apartment markets, those to drop include Woy Woy (6%), Toukley (9%), Umina Beach (9%), East Gosford (12%), Gorokan (8%), Terrigal (6%) and Berkeley Vale (19%).
Some of key markets in Wingecarribee LGA in the Southern Highlands region have dropped also, including Bowral (6%) and Mittagong (10%).
Suffolk Park at Byron Bay has recorded a 17% fall in its median house price to $1,050,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

2019 property price growth markets in Regional NSW are now found further afield: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The KFC in Mentone, south-east of Melbourne, has been listed for sale.
The property at <a href="http://commercialpropertysearch.savills.com.au/2a91c294-1680-e911-80db-005056813885/Sale/Mentone/157-159-Nepean-Hwy" target="_blank">157-159 Nepean Highway</a>, 21 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD, last sold under the hammer at an auction event at the Crown Casino in 2013.
It was pushed to $3,505,000 by two Asian investors after bidding opened at $2.8 million.
The rental income has increased since its sale six years ago when it sold on a gross yield of around 6.5% based on rent of around $227,167 per annum.
Now it is being offered, on a 12 year term with options extending to 2043, with a return of $262,836 per annum.
Over 57,000 cars pass the 2,360 sqm site daily that is zoned Commercial 1. There are 35 on site car parking spaces.
When it traded in 2013 it had had a $350,000 upgrade.
Savills agents Benson Zhou, Yvonne Zhou and Julian Heatherich are marketing the property that has been home to KFC for around 25 years.
 
 
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KFC Mentone up for sale

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Mirvac Group and co-owner Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust have announced the topping out and completion of the main structural works at its Melbourne project Olderfleet.
The 38-level building at 477 Collins Street, Melbourne consists of 58,000 square metres of premium-grade office and retail space and was designed by Grimshaw. 
Mirvac’s General Manager, Development, Simon Healy, said the project had topped out on time, with practical completion expected in mid-2020. 
“This milestone marks another achievement for Olderfleet, which has seen strong interest from our tenants with a range of high calibre brands pre-committed, bringing the tower to 94% leased,” Healy said.
“Mirvac’s vision to create one of Australia’s leading smart buildings, rising out of the heritage façade at Olderfleet, has struck a chord with the Melbourne market.
“Set to become an exemplar of modern working environments, the building integrates leading technology, sustainability and amenities that will include a wellness offering and childcare centre.”  
Brands already committed include Norton Rose Fulbright, Lander &amp; Rogers, Urbis and anchor tenant Deloitte.
“Olderfleet presents a rare opportunity for premium office space in the tightening Melbourne rental market,” Healy said.
“Since Mirvac’s construction commencement, there has been a surge of interest in the midtown area of the CBD, with the precinct surrounding Olderfleet coming to life with restaurants, bars, shopping, and health and wellbeing facilities for workers and the community. 
“Mirvac has a pipeline of projects in Melbourne including 383 La Trobe Street.
“This future, next generation office tower provides yet another opportunity for Mirvac to set new benchmarks in workplace design and contribute to the dynamic and evolving urban landscape within the Melbourne CBD.”
Mirvac has already pre-committed two of the five retail spaces at the Olderfleet building and has had strong enquiries for the remaining spaces, including a foyer café, two-level tenancy at the heritage entrance and a laneway offering on Flinders Lane, Healy said.
Deloitte’s Managing Partner, Victoria, Paul Rehder said: “We’re really excited to reach this key milestone for our new home at 477 Collins Street– a workplace signalling Deloitte’s position as the undisputed leader in professional services and a magnet for what we can offer clients and employees, both professionally and personally.  
“The future of work is moving towards human-centred, technologically driven workplaces – trends that reflect the convergence of work and life to enhance employee wellbeing.
“The building is purposefully designed to encourage co-creation and innovation, and it will set a new standard for employee experience as the way our people work becomes more automated, agile and collaborative.” 
Lander &amp; Rogers’ Chief Executive Partner, Genevieve Collins, said: “Innovation and technology are transforming the legal profession and this provides an exciting opportunity for firms that are prepared to seize it. 
“This involves more than simply investing in IT infrastructure: we need to evolve how we work – with our clients, each other, and within our broader community.
"Internally, our people tell us they want an environment that accommodates complete mobility.
“They want areas for digital and face-to-face collaboration as well as spaces conducive to individual focus.
“An agile, connected workplace is at the very core of Lander &amp; Rogers' long-term strategy and our move to 477 Collins will help us fully realise that." 
Olderfleet is committed to a 5 Star Green Star rating, a 5 Star NABERS energy rating and a Platinum WELL Certification.
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Mirvac and Suntec's Olderfleet Melbourne project tops out

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Dual lots in the north Brisbane suburb of Northgate have been bought by a private syndicate for $2.4 million.
Lot 2 and Lot 3 at 62 Crockford Street came with a combined 4,000 square metres of land area and General Industry (A) Zoning.
The off-market deal was negotiated and secured by Ray White Commercial Queensland Director – Brokerage Services Paul Anderson and Senior Sales and Leasing Executives Aaron Aleckson and Andrew Doyle.
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Anderson said the lots were sold by vendor Chuan Xin Pty Ltd with a sales rate of $600per square metre, plus GST.
“The initial sales a couple of years ago were in the low $400s, and last year, all the sales were in the $500s,” Anderson said.
“On reflection, the market has priced-in the limited supply, as there really isn't any small industrial lots available in the entire precinct now."
Aleckson said the buyers have already approached architects and had plans in place for the site’s future development.
“This will be a premium industrial project, tailored to meet the needs of corporate occupiers,” Aleckson said.
Doyle said the strategic location of Northgate was an attraction to various prospective buyers.
“It offers the many benefits associated with being right on the Gateway Motorway, with easy access to Brisbane Airport, the CBD and Airport Link Tunnel network,” Doyle.
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Dual Northgate lots sold for $2.4 million to syndicate 

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Trinity Village shopping centre in Perth’s north western suburb of Alkimos has sold for $34.05 million.
The neighbourhood shopping centre has a net lettable area of 6,081 square metres and is anchored by Coles on a long 15-year lease.
There are also 16 specialty tenants, including a Shell service station, medical centre and childcare centre.  
Trinity Village was sold at a rate of $5,599 per square metre at a 5.84% yield to a private local investor.
The architecturally designed centre was completed in 2018 and was sold by a syndicate of developers. 
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CBRE’s Richard Cash and Anthony Del Borrello of its Western Australian Retail Investments team negotiated the sale. 
Del Borrello said that after a five-week International Expressions of Interest Campaign, the property had garnered 86 enquiries and seven offers from a mix of local and east coast investors and offshore groups.  
“Insulation from economic fluctuations and the impact of online retail sales has also contributed to high demand for non-discretionary and service based neighbourhood shopping centres,” he said.
Cash said that this was the sixth neighbourhood shopping centre sale in WA in 2019, with a total transaction volume of over $100 million.  
“In the face of negative sentiments surrounding the retail investment market, we have already seen three transactions and $45 million more than this time last year and the average yield has tightened to 6.19%,” Cash said.
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Trinity Village shopping centre in Perth sells for $34 million

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One of Australia’s largest industrial trade tools retailers, Sydney Tools, is seeking to lease 80,000 square metres of industrial retail space across the country in the next five years.
It is in the part of the the group's national expansion program of its bricks and mortar retail megastores.
"We are seeking to commit to leases of terms of up to 10 years," Sydney Tools Director Jason Bey said.
The privately owned company has grown its share of the trade tools market by stocking a range which now spans more than 11,000 stock-keeping units.
Established in 2001, Sydney Tools is an Australian family owned company and currently operating 31 stores along the eastern seaboard in NSW, ACT, Queensland and Victoria.
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It plans to double its eastern seaboard footprint and expand into other states including Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.
The company holds a footprint of approximately 60,000 square metres across the 31 current stores. 
Bey said more than 94% of revenue was generated through their bricks and mortar retail outlets.
Spending on major infrastructure projects particularly in NSW, Victoria and Queensland is driving ongoing demand for capital equipment, accessories and hand tools, Bey said.
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Sydney Tools to more than double retail footprint in expansion move

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The first stage of development within Marina Village Martha Cove, Victoria’s newest bayside town centre, is now complete.
The first stage, dubbed The Moorings, is designed by Karl Fender of Fender Katsalidis and developed by the Balmain Group. It is located at the base of Mount Martha on the eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay.
The Moorings comprises a residential building of 43 two, three and four bedroom apartments, with Martha's Table, a restaurant, bar, grocer and cellar occupying the ground level.
Martha's Table is set to open in early spring.
Murry Offord, head of asset management as Balmain Group, says a key priority has been to work with a tier-one design team in order to deliver a market-leading town centre which sets a new standard for Martha Cove.
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“As our first project within the town centre, The Moorings is an iconic building in terms of design and what it means for the evolution of the area," Offord said.
"We have worked closely with our urban planners, architects, designers, builders and landscapers to ensure that the final design not only respects its surrounds but offers something special that people want to be a part of.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/5/Martha%20Cove.jpg" alt="">
“The completion of Marina Plaza and The Moorings has delivered what we set out to achieve – creating a community and lifestyle that will be the envy of the Mornington Peninsula.”
The project is almost 70 percent sold.
Marina Village Martha Cove has 300 marina berths and a full-service boatyard, including a 300-boat dry stack facility with concierge and valet services.
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Over 40 per cent of The Moorings’ buyers have also purchased a 99-year marina berth lease.
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Architect Karl Fender describes the town centre as “a habitat of modern lifestyle inspired by the spirit of the Mornington Peninsula.”
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“It really is a haven for boat owners. There aren’t many places where you can live in an architecturally designed apartment and tie your boat up in your front yard,” says Offord. 
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“We’re proud to see the town centre becoming a reality. It is a project that combines the best of contemporary placemaking and the aesthetics of the peninsula. We look forward to opening Martha’s Table and launching our next residential projects later this year,” Offord adds.
 
Balmain Group acquired the site, the only waterfront retail and residential masterplanned estate on the peninsula, from receivers in 2015.
They redeveloped the masterplan to create Marina Village Martha Cove, which was approved at the end of 2016.
 
 
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The Mornington Peninsula's newest town centre, Marina Village Martha Cove, starts to take shape

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
There are significant dangers in making generalisations on consumer spending. Sales of shoes and chemist items are solid. But the home building slowdown is weighing on sales of hardware and garden items while Aussie families are still cutting back on newspapers and books. Prices are rising sharply at food stores with the drought a key influence. But prices of shoes and electrical items are still cheaper than a year ago.
Overall, sales of retail goods continue to slow. One reason is higher retail inflation – the highest in a decade. But there is also the ongoing switch to services like health, education and tourism. Aussies still enjoy going out to cafes and restaurants. Meanwhile Aussie consumers outlay more on insurance, utilities and housing.
For the full 2018/19 year, Aussies spent 3 per cent more at retail outlets. They bought 1.3 per cent more goods and services while prices rose by 1.8 per cent over the year.
Are Aussie families living more simply? Perhaps. But it may also be the case that the significant uncertainty about the May election caused consumers to make a key tactical retreat. The encouraging 0.4 per cent lift in June spending may signify the return of the Aussie consumer.
Retail trade – June
Retail trade rose by 0.4 per cent in June after a 0.1 per cent increase in May. Annual growth rose from 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Non-food retailing rose by 0.5 per cent in June, and annual growth lifted from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent.
Sales by chain-store retailers and other large retailers rose by 0.7 per cent in June after a 0.1 per cent increase in May to stand 3.9 per cent higher over the year.
Spending rose most in June in Clothing retailing (up 2.0 per cent); Footwear (up 1.9 per cent); Newspaper and book retailing (up 1.8 per cent) and Takeaway food (up 1.6 per cent). Nine of 15 retail categories rose in June.
Spending fell the most for Specialised food – butchers, bakers, fruit etc. (down 3.8 per cent) and Department stores and Hardware, building and garden supplies (both down 0.6 per cent).
Across states/territories: NSW (up 0.3 per cent); Victoria (up 0.3 per cent); Queensland (up 0.4 per cent); South Australia (down 0.3 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.8 per cent), Tasmania (up 1.5 per cent); Northern Territory (down 0.2 per cent); ACT (up 0.3 per cent).
Retail trade – June quarter
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, retail trade rose by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.1 per cent fall in the March quarter. Annual growth slowed to 0.2 per cent – the slowest since June quarter 1991 (28 years).
Eleven of the 15 retail categories showed growth in the June quarter.
Strongest gains were by Footwear &amp; Other Personal Accessory (up 1.5 per cent) from Department stores and Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods (both up 1.4 per cent).
Biggest falls were by Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies (down 1.9 per cent), Newspapers and Books (down 1.7 per cent); and Supermarkets and Grocery Stores (down 0.6 per cent).
Prices across retailers rose by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.8 per cent rise in the March quarter. Annual growth of retail prices lifted from 2.0 per cent to a decade high of 2.4 per cent.
Prices rose most in the June quarter in Pharmaceutical Cosmetic and Toiletry (up 1.3 per cent); Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies and Newspapers and Books (both up 1.0 per cent).
In the June quarter there was still deflation in Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods (prices down 1.2 per cent); Footwear &amp; Other Personal Accessory (down 0.6 per cent); and Furniture, Floorcovering and Textile Goods (down 0.1 per cent).
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank would do well to hold fire on future rate cuts until it assesses more evidence. The latest data shows higher prices and higher spending at a retail level. We do know that home prices are stabilising and that the sharemarket is only slightly down from record levels after reaching new peaks on Tuesday. There are also signs that employers are hiring again.
David Jones believes retailing is in recession. The timing of the comments wasn’t good – real department store sales rose by a solid 1.4 per cent in the June quarter.
The 0.7 per cent real decline in spending at Supermarkets &amp; grocery stores is remarkable. Cafes &amp; restaurants and takeaway outlets are doing better. Also of note, Marley Spoon has just released solid results.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Slowest retail spending in 28 years: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Deloitte Access Economics <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/great-barrier-reef" target="_blank">has valued</a> the Great Barrier Reef at A$56 billion, with an economic contribution of A$6.4 billion per year. Yet this figure grossly underestimates the value of the reef, as it mainly focuses on tourism and the reef’s role as an Australian icon.
When you include aspects of the reef that the report excludes, such as the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, you find that the reef is priceless.
Putting a price on the Great Barrier Reef buys into the notion that a cost-benefit analysis is the right way to make decisions on policies and projects that may affect the reef. For example, the environmental cost of the extension to the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-22/massive-abbot-point-coal-port-expansion-gets-federal-approval/7047380" target="_blank">Abbot Point coal terminal</a> can be compared to any economic benefits.
But as the reef is both priceless and irreplaceable, this is the wrong approach. Instead, the <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001395/139578e.pdf" target="_blank">precautionary principle</a> should be used to make decisions regarding the reef. Policies and projects that may damage the reef cannot go ahead.
How do you value the Great Barrier Reef?
The Deloitte report uses what’s known as a “contingent valuation” approach. This is a survey-based methodology, and is commonly used to measure the value of non-market environmental assets such as <a href="http://www.appstate.edu/%7Ewhiteheadjc/eco3620/projects/mocktrial/pdf/loomisandwhite-ee-1996.pdf" target="_blank">endangered species</a> and <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2663496.pdf" target="_blank">national parks</a> – as well as to calculate the impact of events such as <a href="http://econweb.ucsd.edu/%7Ercarson/papers/AlaskaReport.pdf" target="_blank">oil spills</a>.
In valuing the reef, surveys were used to elicit people’s willingness to pay for it, such as through a tax or levy. This was found to be A$67.60 per person per year. The report also uses the travel-cost method, which estimates willingness to pay for the Great Barrier Reef, based on the time and money that people spend to visit it. Again, this is commonly used in environmental economics to value national parks and the recreational value of local lakes.
Of course, all methods of valuing environmental assets have limitations. For example, it is difficult to make sure that respondents are stating realistic amounts in their willingness to pay. Respondents may act strategically if they think they really will be slugged with a Great Barrier Reef levy. They may conflate this environmental issue with all environmental issues.
But more importantly, the methodology in the report leaves out the most important non-market value that the reef provides, which are called <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/ecosystem-services-key-concepts-and-applications" target="_blank">ecosystem services</a>. For example, coral reefs provide storm protection and erosion protection, and they are the nurseries for 25% of all marine animals which themselves have commercial and existence value.
The Deloitte report even cites (but does not reference) a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000685" target="_blank">2014 study</a> that values the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs at US$352,249 per hectare per year. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park <a href="https://www.npsr.qld.gov.au/world-heritage-areas/great_barrier_reef" target="_blank">covers 35 million hectares</a> with 2,900 individual reefs of varying sizes. This means the ecosystem services it provides are worth trillions of dollars per year.
That is, it is essentially priceless.
The problem with putting a value on the Reef
Valuing the environment at all is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2014/jul/24/price-nature-neoliberal-capital-road-ruin" target="_blank">contentious</a> in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069684710084" target="_blank">economics</a>. Valuation is performed so that all impacts from, say, a new development, can be expressed in a common metric – in this case dollars. This allows a cost-benefit analysis to be performed.
But putting a price on the Great Barrier Reef hides the fact that it is irreplaceable, and as such its value is not <a href="http://le.uwpress.org/content/82/2/141.short" target="_blank">commensurate</a> with the values of other assets. For instance, using Deloitte’s figure, The Australian newspaper <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/great-barrier-reef-valued-at-more-than-12-opera-houses-study/news-story/33e7f7420e2b41bf9efd6a4aa6e3351b">compared the reef</a> to the value of 12 Sydney Opera Houses. But while they are both icons, the Opera House can be rebuilt. The Great Barrier Reef cannot. Any loss is irreversible.
When environmental assets are irreplaceable and their loss irreversible, a more appropriate decision-making framework is the <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0013/001395/139578e.pdf" target="_blank">Precautionary Principle</a>.
The Precautionary Principle suggests that when there is uncertainty regarding the impacts of a new development on an environmental asset, decision makers should be cautious and minimise the maximum loss. For example, if it is even remotely possible that the extension to the Abbot Point coal terminal could lead to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-22/massive-abbot-point-coal-port-expansion-gets-federal-approval/7047380" target="_blank">massive destruction</a> of the reef, then precaution suggests that it shouldn’t go ahead.
Assigning a value to the reef might still be appropriate under the Precautionary Principle, to estimate the maximum loss. But it would require the pricing of all values and especially ecosystem services.
While the Precautionary Principle has been <a href="http://www.public.iastate.edu/%7Ejwcwolf/Papers/Gardiner%20on%20Precautionary%20Principle.pdf" target="_blank">much maligned</a> due to its perceived bias against development, it is a key element of the definition of Ecologically Sustainable Development in Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2012C00801" target="_blank">Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999</a>.
For a priceless asset like the Great Barrier Reef, it is perhaps better to leave it as “priceless” and to act accordingly. After all, if the Precautionary Principle is ever going to be used when assessing Ecologically Sustainable Development, in contrast with cost-benefit analysis and valuations, it is surely for our main environmental icon.
Ultimately, the protection and prioritisation of the Great Barrier Reef is a political issue that requires political will, and not one that can be solved by pricing and economics.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80061/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Neil Perry, Research Lecturer, Western Sydney University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-value-of-the-great-barrier-reef-its-priceless-80061" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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What's the economic value of the Great Barrier Reef? It's priceless

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Introduction
A common concern ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ended a decade ago is that the next recession is imminent.
This concern has become more pronounced recently as yield curves – ie the gap between long-term bond yields and short-term borrowing rates - have inverted (or gone negative) as in the US.
This concern has taken on added currency now that the US economic expansion is the longest on record. Surely it must be living on borrowed time?
This matters a lot. The US is the world’s biggest economy in US dollar terms (at 24% of world GDP), its share market is around 56% of global share market capitalisation and being central to the world’s financial system it sets the direction for global share markets, including Australia’s.
What’s more, while share corrections (say falls of 5-15%) and even mild bear markets (with say a 20% decline that turns around quickly) are common, the key driver of whether they turn into a major bear market (where shares fall 20% and a year later are down another 20% or so like in the GFC) is whether we see a recession or not –notably in the US (see the table in Correction time for shares?).
So, whether a US recession is imminent or not is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market is imminent.
Longest but not the strongest
The cyclical bull market in US shares is now over 10 years old. This makes it the longest since WW2 and the second strongest in terms of percentage gain. And according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research the current US economic expansion that started in June 2009 is now 121 months old and compares to an average expansion of 58 months since 1945.
This makes it the longest on record (since 1854). See the next two tables. But it’s noteworthy that it’s not the strongest.
In fact, GDP and employment growth through this expansion have averaged around half that seen in the average post war expansion. Both have been the second weakest.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/amp%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/amp%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Absence of excess
Numerous growth slowdowns and recession scares – notably around 2011-12, 2015-16 and since last year - and post GFC caution have kept this expansion slow.
A key lesson of past economic expansions is that “they do not die of old age, but of exhaustion”.
The length of economic expansions depends on how quickly recovery proceeds, excess builds up, inflation rises and the central bank tightens.
The current US economic expansion may be long, but it has been slow. As a result, it’s been taking longer than normal for excesses that precede recessions – around cyclical spending, debt and inflation - to build up.
First, cyclical spending in the US as a share of GDP remains low. In particular, there has been no “boom” in spending on consumer durables, business or housing investment resulting in a glut that needs to be worked off as occurred prior to all of the recessions in the last 50 years. All are around or below long-term averages as a share of GDP, in contrast to highs seen prior to past recessions. Basically, no boom = no bust!
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%201.jpg" alt="">
Second, growth in private sector debt has been modest and well below the surge seen prior to the recessions of the early 1990s, early 2000s and 2008-09 as household debt growth has been weak. While corporate debt is up, the ratio of profits to interest payments is well above average and the ratio of corporate debt to assets is low. (Yes, public debt to GDP in the US is a concern but high public debt has not been a precursor to recession and the public sector’s taxing and money printing abilities mean it’s a totally different risk to excessive private debt.)
Finally, there is no sign of the surge in inflation that traditionally precedes recessions. Sure, the labour market has been flashing warning signs with unemployment and underemployment having fallen sharply, warning of a wages breakout and inflation pressure.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%202.jpg" alt="">
However, there is arguably still spare capacity in the US labour market (the participation rate has yet to see a normal cyclical rise) and wages growth around 3% remains very low.
The last three recessions were preceded by wages growth above 4%. And industrial capacity utilisation at 78% is well below levels that in the past have shown excess and preceded recessions.
Reflecting this, along with intense competition which has been accentuated by technological innovation, core inflation has fallen below target.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/24/us%203.jpg" alt="">
So, while the Fed has raised interest rates since late 2015 it has not slammed the brakes on with tight monetary policy.
Past US recessions have been preceded by the Fed Funds rates being well above inflation and nominal growth, whereas that’s not the case now. See the last chart. And given perceived risks to growth and the concern that it will be easier to deal with a rise in inflation than deflation, the Fed is now moving to cut rates again anyway.
The bottom line is that the excesses that normally precede US recessions – a spending boom, surging private debt and/or rising inflation/tight monetary policy – are absent.
So while US economic expansion may be long in the tooth it’s far from exhausted.
But what about the inverted yield curve?
The inverted US yield curve that started in the last few months is certainly a concern as they have preceded past US recessions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%204.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/24/us%204.png" alt="">
However, there are several reasons not to be too concerned. First, the lag from yield curve inversion to recession averages around 15 months (which takes us to second half next year), there have been numerous false signals and following yield curve inversions in 1989, 1998 and 2006 shares actually rallied.
Second, various factors may be inverting the yield curve unrelated to growth expectations including still falling long-term inflation expectations, low German and Japanese bond yields and higher levels of investor demand for bonds post the GFC as they have proven to be a good diversifier to shares in times of crisis. Third, the retreat from monetary tightening has been a factor behind the rally in bonds but this is positive for growth.
Finally, other indicators are not pointing to imminent recession – as noted above we have not seen the sort of excess that normally precedes recession.
The bottom line
Issues around the trade war and tensions with Iran certainly pose a risk to US growth and could drive short term volatility in share markets.
But the combination of easing monetary conditions globally, the removal of caps on US Government spending for next year (which threatened a mini “fiscal cliff”) as part of a deal to suspend the debt ceiling and the absence of the excesses that contribute to recessions would suggest that US - and hence global and Australian - shares are likely to be higher in 6-12 months’ time.
Shares up and bond yields down – which is right?
This brings us back a puzzle that has worried some this year: share markets are up but bond yields are down...surely one market must be wrong?
But this occasionally happens in the investment cycle. Basically, shares having fallen last year on growth fears are looking through short-term growth uncertainties and focusing on lower for longer interest rates and bond yields making shares relatively cheaper and the likelihood that monetary and fiscal stimulus will ultimately boost economic growth.
By contrast bonds have been focussing on falling inflation and lower for longer short-term interest rates.
So, there is logic behind both shares and bonds rallying at the same time. Ultimately though if global growth picks up over the next 12 months, bond yields will start to rise again – but it’s likely to remain gradual and constrained.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
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