<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;

Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.

"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]

Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.

Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.

"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;

This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;

“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]

Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;

Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.

"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.

At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]

The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.

"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;

640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.

"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."

One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.

Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]

Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.

The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.

The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.

Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.

“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.

“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]

The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.

Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.

When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.

“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.

“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]

Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.

Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.

“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”

Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]

The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.

Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.

“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”

The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Fewer homes will be built over the coming year, and that is to be expected following the frenetic pace of building over 2014-2018.
But there will be no shortage of work for the broader building and construction sectors.
Over $140 billion of work is yet to be done.
Commercial building work to be completed is at record highs with engineering work near 4-year highs. And that doesn’t include the raft of new infrastructure planned by state and territory governments.
Rebuilding after the horrific bushfires will add to the work total as well in coming years.
While off the absolute peak levels in 2012 – a total driven by mining activity – work yet to be done on building and construction projects is up almost 4 per cent over the year and near the highest levels in 4½ years.
There is a perception that the economy is listing. But building and construction remains a bevy of activity and there is plenty of work to support building material providers, builders, tradespeople and professional services like architects. Outside the resources sector, a record amount of engineering work remains to be done.
What do the figures show?
The number of dwelling starts fell by 11.7 per cent in the September quarter after rising 1.5 per cent in the June quarter.
House starts fell by 4.8 per cent in the September quarter after a 9.4 per cent fall in the June quarter. Apartment starts fell by 21.9 per cent in the September quarter after a 20.3 per cent increase in the June quarter.
Work started on 180,972 new dwellings over the 12 months to September, down by 21.5 per cent on the year. Starts fell from the record high of 234,186 dwellings in the year to December 2016.
Across Australia, starts in the September quarter fell in six states/territories: NSW (down by 19.5 per cent); Victoria (down by 9.7 per cent); Queensland (up by 3.0 per cent); South Australia (up by 1.9 per cent); Western Australia (down by 14.8 per cent); Tasmania (down by 4.6 per cent); Northern Territory (down by 18.5 per cent); and the ACT (down by 3.1 per cent).
In the year to September, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in only two of the states and territories: NSW (up 7.6 per cent) and Tasmania (up 17.0 per cent). Starts were below the decade average in: Victoria (down 0.2 per cent); Queensland (down 13.6 per cent); South Australia (down by 9.1 per cent); Western Australia (down by 35.4 per cent); Northern Territory (down 60.9 per cent); the ACT (down 7.6 per cent); and total Australia (down 5.9 per cent).
In the September quarter residential and commercial building work done fell by 0.5 per cent. New residential work fell 3.4 per cent with alterations &amp; additions down 0.3 per cent but commercial building rose by 3.8 per cent and engineering work rose by 0.5 per cent.
The value of residential and commercial building work in the pipeline stood at $89.6 billion at the end of September, down by 7.1 per cent on a year ago and below the record-high of $99.2 billion at the end of June 2018.
Across Australia, 201,317 homes are currently being built, down from a record 231,416 homes in March 2018.
In the September quarter residential and commercial building work yet to be done (completed), stood at $69.8 billion, down 7.9 per cent on a year ago. Engineering work to be done stood at $74.1 billion, up 18.1 per cent on a year ago. Total building and construction work to be done stood at $144 billion at the end of September, just off 4½-year highs but up 3.9 per cent on the year.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Building and construction sectors face mixed prospects. Work to be done on commercial projects stands at record highs. Engineering work is near 5-year highs but dwelling construction is easing from unsustainable highs.
When the word ‘decline’ or ‘fall’ is used, the perception is negative. But always the base needs to be considered as well as history. While some construction work levels have eased, in many sectors the decline is from super-normal or unsustainable levels. In NSW at the peak more than 70,000 apartments were being built. Prior to the last five years, a number of 25,000 apartments being built was considered a high level of building.
The healthy levels of construction work to be done provides further complications for the Reserve Bank in its thinking about rates at the February 2020 Board meeting. The next two key events are the December job figures on January 23 and the Consumer Price Index (inflation) on January 29.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Record commercial building work to be done: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts. 
Physical disasters invariably cause a brief disruption to economic activity as measured by GDP followed by a boost as wealth destroyed by the disaster is rebuilt. In this sense measured across a year or so they are often seen as positive for economic growth, albeit this seems perverse particularly for those directly impacted.
The damage to property and wealth flowing from the bushfires will likely run into many billions. For example, the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires are estimated to have cost $4.4bn, whereas the current fires have covered an area 15 times bigger. So there will be a very big rebuilding boost to economic activity to come once the fires are brought under control. But the fires have been very widespread, have been going on for several months now and the crisis is continuing, so there will be a significant short-term negative impact and it likely will involve more than a short-term disruption to economic activity. 
- Activity related to farming, manufacturing, transport, tourism and business generally in the affected areas will be disrupted – this will involve around 2-3% of the population and will be concentrated around the March quarter. It will also be partly offset as affected people have to undertake spending that they otherwise wouldn’t have had to.
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- A bigger impact on economic activity is likely to come via a hit to consumer spending as the constant news of the fires and the smoke haze in several capital cities weighs on confidence. Australians were already very hesitant about the economic outlook after the slowdown in growth seen last year and continuing weak wages growth and high underemployment. A Roy Morgan survey released late last year found that 40% of Australians thought that 2020 will be worse than 2019, which is the worse reading since the early 1990s recession. At the same time a record-low 12% thought it would be better resulting in a net negative reading of 28% which is the worst in the survey’s 40-year history.
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- This may exaggerate how bad things really are. The economy is still in far better shape than it was at the time of the early 1990s recession (I was there, I remember!). But a combination of more negative news flow today due to the rise of social media, more divisive politics and expectations rising faster than reality may be altering perceptions of the economy in a negative way and exaggerating the gloom. Nevertheless, a range of other surveys also show that consumers are uncertain and depressed, and this looks to have intensified since Christmas. The constant terrible news since October about the bushfires along with the smoke in cities is likely weighing further on the national psyche adding to weakness in consumer spending as Australians feel less motivated to spend when their fellow Australians are suffering. The hit to household spending power from higher prices for food and a likely rise in insurance premiums flowing from the fires will only accentuate this. 
- Inbound tourism is also likely to be impacted by the heavy coverage of the bushfires globally – with ridiculous maps showing much of Australia on fire (including where I am right now) – likely to adversely affect perceptions of Australia. This may be short lived (just as the positive boost from the 2000 Olympics was) but it could still last a year or so.
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Taken together we expect a detraction from GDP due to the bushfires of around 0.4% starting in the December quarter but mainly impacting the March quarter before a rebuilding boost kicks in from the June quarter. Given the uncertainty, the range around this negative impact is -0.25% up to a worse case of - 1% of GDP should the fires continue on a widespread basis through the rest of summer. The rebuilding boost should reverse much of this drag later in the year, but there is considerable uncertainty around this as the impact on tourism and consumer spending may linger longer. 
A big proximate contributor to the severity of the bushfires is the severe drought gripping much of Australia. This has already driven a decline in agricultural production, which has been directly detracting around 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth for the last two years. Unfortunately, the Southern Oscillation Index is still in El Nino territory pointing to ongoing relatively dry conditions in eastern and top-end Australia. 
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More policy stimulus 
With the bushfires likely to contribute to a flow of weak economic data for the next several months, questioning the RBA’s “gentle turning point” in the economy and resulting in a movement away from the achievement of the RBA’s full employment and inflation goals, the fires have only added to the pressure for more policy stimulus. We remain of the view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.5% in February (with the market probability now up to 53.4% from a low of 36% before Christmas) and to 0.25% probably in March. The bushfires will push up food prices and insurance premiums but the RBA’s focus on underlying inflation will mean that it should look through this. In fact, increases in such prices will act as a tax on consumer spending power and are negative for spending and so could depress underlying inflation. 
The pressure for further fiscal stimulus has also intensified. The Federal Government has already committed an additional $2bn for bushfire recovery to be spent this year and next (which is relatively small at 0.05% of GDP per year) and the NSW Government has committed another $1bn. However, the total hit to government budgets from the bushfires is likely to be much greater than this given assistance under existing disaster programs, extra expenses associated with fighting the fires and the impact of slower growth in the short term on revenue flows. 
More broadly given the hit to confidence a circuit breaker is arguably needed to help boost economic growth. Monetary policy alone is unlikely to be enough. So there is a need for a broader fiscal stimulus – maybe in the form of a bring forward of the personal tax cuts, an increase in Newstart and broad based investment allowances. To have an impact it needs to be at least 0.5% of GDP (or around $10bn). 
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Rightly in the face of the pain caused by the bushfires the Government has relaxed the focus on achieving a budget surplus and it is now questionable as to whether it will be achieved this year and next. That is not a major problem in the relative scheme of things given the relatively good state of Australia’s public finances. 
Some longer-term challenges 
The bushfires pose a number of longer-term challenges. 
First, increased pressure to adopt a tougher stance in reducing carbon emissions. While Australia has always had droughts and bushfires we have been warned for more than a decade now that the world and Australia is getting warmer, that increasing global greenhouse gas emissions are likely contributing to this and that in the absence of actions to reduce emissions the world will get significantly warmer with the outcome being rising sea levels and more extreme weather events – including storms, floods and droughts – with more severe bushfires an outcome of the latter. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/10/EXTREME%20HEAT%20DAYS.jpg" alt="">
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Second, the damage inflicted by the extreme bushfires highlights the need for investors to be aware of industries and businesses that are vulnerable to climate change risk – whether it comes from the physical impact from climate change or via measures to reduce emissions. 
Thirdly, the severity of the bushfires and the risk that this is the new normal will necessitate better strategies for reducing the risk to property posed by future bushfires. 
Finally, in the absence of policy action the bushfires risk accentuating the decline of some regional communities particularly where key industries have been destroyed by the fires – with some taking their insurance and rebuilding elsewhere. This will only further centralise Australia in its big cities adding to all the costs that entails – notably congestion and expensive housing. 
What does it mean for investors? 
The likelihood of more RBA monetary easing and continuing weak economic growth in the short term will likely keep Australian bond yields down relative to global bond yields, possibly pushing them lower. 
This will also keep the Australian dollar relatively soft. 
So far the Australian share market appears to be looking through the short-term hit to economic growth focusing more on the rebuilding boost, but the negative impact of the bushfires risks seeing it remain a relative underperformer versus global shares. 
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SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital. 
Main photo credit: Andrea Schaffer
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Bushfires and the Australian economy: Oliver's Insights

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The Harbord Beach Hotel in Freshwater on Sydney's Northern Beaches has changed hands for the first time in 42 years.
It was bought by Northern Beaches local Glenn Piper, who said it is undoubtedly one of Sydney's greatest pubs.
"I’m so proud to be part of the Northern Beaches community and honoured to help usher this incredible venue into the next phase of its rich and colourful history," Piper said.
“Harbord Beach Hotel has always been a haven that encapsulates Freshwater’s soul and spirit”. 
“It is so much more than a pub; it is an extension of the community, informed by the surf culture that has long been embedded within the name, and we are committed to taking our time and doing it justice”. 
Piper (pictured right), who spent his career in the property industry, has teamed up with a local syndicate of local investors and fellow Northern Beaches resident Lachlan Cottee (pictured left) to buy the hotel, which is set to be refurbished once plans are in place.
They're set to refurbish the kitchen and courtyard area. The building and its facade is heritage-listed.
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The venue was built in 1928 and sits just 100 metres from Freshwater Beach.
Leading hotelier John Thorpe and Trish King bought the property in 1978.
Sean King, son of John and Trish, who has been the general manager of the hotel for the past two decades, he is looking forward to enjoying the pub as a regular.
"My brothers, sister and I were raised in this pub and I have lived opposite for the past 25 years; it is a very special property that means so much to my family and the local community", King said.
"After meeting Glenn, we recognised that he not only has the energy and enthusiasm to bring new life to the venue, but importantly a genuine love for the area that will ensure this local pub remains a local.
"I am very much looking forward to enjoying it as a regular and watch it evolve under Glenn's care and ownership". 
Main article image picture source: Harbord Beach Hotel.
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Freshwater's Harbord Beach Hotel sells for first time in over four decades

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
2020 is likely to see markets in recovery mode as housing prices catch up and then overtake their previous record highs, however the rapid rate of capital gains seen over the second half of 2019 is expected to lose steam as stock levels rise and affordability deteriorates, according to CoreLogic's Head of Research, Tim Lawless.
In 2019 the housing market moved through the largest and longest correction on record, followed by a fast-paced rebound in values through the second half of the year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/20/graph%202.png" alt="">
 
Housing turnover fell to record lows in 2019, as did new advertised stock levels.
Interest rates reduced to levels previously unseen, while the concentration of investors in the market also plumbed new depths.
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At a national level, housing values were trending lower through the first half of the year, continuing a downturn spiral that commenced in October 2017.
June saw CoreLogic’s national housing market index reach a floor after posting the longest and largest correction in housing values on record.
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Between the market peak in October 2017, and the trough in June 2019, the national index fell by 8.4%. The previous record decline in national housing values was an 8.1% drop through the early 1980’s as the economy moved through a recession and unemployment peaked slightly above 10%.
"Larger peak-to-trough falls were recorded in Sydney (-14.9%) and Melbourne (-11.1%), where housing conditions had previously been the strongest. Of course not all the capitals found a floor in housing values through the year, with data through to the end of November showing that Darwin values were still trending lower, down a cumulative 31.5%, while Perth values posted a rare rise in November, but remained 21.6% below the 2014 peak," mr Lawless added.
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Since reaching a floor in June, CoreLogic’s national index has rebounded by 4.7%, with the monthly growth rate in November the highest since 2003. Despite the recent recovery trend, housing values nationally remain 4.1% below their 2017 peak.
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A variety of factors contributed to the housing values recovery over the second half of the year. Earlier in the year, a reduction in the rate of decline was supported by higher first home buyer activity and brought about by improvements in housing affordability and stamp duty exemptions in NSW and Victoria. However, the main contributors to a rebound in housing conditions were:
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  The positive effect of the federal government retaining power at the May federal election which removed the uncertainty around tax reform relating to negative gearing and capital gains discounts.
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  Cuts to the cash rate in June, July and October
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  And an easing in lending policy as APRA adjusted its rules around minimum interest rate serviceability tests; a move which acknowledged interest rates were likely to remain low for an extended period of time.
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Tim Lawless is the head of research at CoreLogic. 
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Real estate records set in 2019 with markets likely in recovery mode in 2020: CoreLogic's 2019 wrap

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>Net permanent and long-term arrivals sat at +299,670 over the year to October 2019, pointing towards strong ongoing population growth. </div>
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Short-term visitors
Short-term visitors from China and India have resumed their upwards trend.
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And, as previously noted here, study is a big drawcard, with a record number of temporary visas on issue for international students. 
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I've been watching with interest to see whether there's been more action from Hong Kong, but if there is it's not evident in short-term visitor figures. 
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The main beneficiary of the student trend looks likely to be Victoria.
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Not much new here, except confirmation that more student visitors from Asia continue to come in record numbers, and that population growth looks likely to remain at around +1.6 per cent or thereabouts.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

International student surge ramps up: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>Moves to slow permanent migration to Australia took some effect across recent quarters.</div>
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<div>The natural increase of the population was a bit higher over the 2019 financial year at +142,600.</div>
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<div>And net overseas migration of +238,800 was just +100 higher than it was in the prior year. </div>
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<div>Overall, population growth in FY 2019 was therefore only modestly higher year-on-year at +381,600 (FY 2018: +380,800).</div>
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<div>The rampant population growth of a few years ago has therefore eased a little, although levels of growth do remain very strong. </div>
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<div>South-east Queensland as a destination continued to dominate the interstate moves over the financial year, while net interstate migration to Victoria has now calmed down a little. People are less inclined to leave Western Australia now than they have been for some years. </div>
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<div>Piecing it together, some 86 per cent of population growth in FY 2019 was accounted for by New South Wales (+109,400), Victoria (+132,800), and Queensland (+85,700).</div>
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<div class="separator">The estimated resident population of the Northern Territory continues to shrink, to be down by -1,200 over the year to June 2019.</div>
Nerida Conisbee of REA Group has noted that the Darwin housing market is really struggling, with no positive indicators registered at all.a
Next up we can map these figures against dwelling completions.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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Population growth of 381,600 in FY2019: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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The minutes of the December monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have made it clear that the Board will be reassessing the economic outlook next February. Whilst it seems reasonable at the end of the year to note that a review will occur at the beginning of the next year, this has not been specifically noted in December minutes in previous years.
Further evidence of the importance of this signal is that the minutes note “economic growth and the unemployment rate remain broadly consistent with the forecasts, but members agreed that it will be concerning if there were a deterioration in the outlook”.
These two observations from the minutes strongly point to the unusual importance of the data flow over the next two months.
The Board has already noted that since the November economic forecasts were finalised “The Capex survey ( showed) … non-mining investment in 2019/20 was expected to be weaker than previously envisaged”.
We were not surprised that the Board did not repeat the comment in the November minutes that “a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting”. Although that language strengthens the signal that the Board is open to cutting rates further, it loses its impact if repeated for every meeting.
The Board also resolved their views on the impact of lower rates on confidence. The November minutes noted that “they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence and… that a further reduction in interest rates could have a different effect on confidence than in the past”. However, in these minutes, the Board resolved that: “the impact of these effects [negative confidence] was unlikely to outweigh the stimulus to the economy of lower interest rates”.
Concerns about weak wages growth remain central to the Board: “it was noted that the current rate of wages growth was not consistent with inflation being sustainably within the target range… nor was it consistent with consumption growth returning to trend”. It was also observed that private sector wages growth “had levelled out in recent quarters, following its gentle upward trend of the previous couple of years”.
Last month, the RBA complimented its standard stated benefits of lower rates — the exchange rate and household and business cash flow — with the boost to house prices lifting wealth and expenditure on household goods. That theme is repeated, although while higher house prices are a benefit in the near-term, it “could be become a source of concern if borrowing were to run too quickly ahead of income growth”. Note that the emphasis is on the risk of higher debt rather than actual house prices, and given the current trend for borrowers to lift repayments to contain debt levels, it is unlikely that the Board will become concerned with rising house prices for some time yet.
With the unemployment rate being such an important source of attention for the Board, it is notable that “employment intentions among the Bank’s  liaison contacts had generally been moderate”. Westpac expects that the unemployment rate will drift higher to around 5.6% in the June quarter from the current 5.3%.
On the international front, there is an improved outlook with the noting that “some of the downside risks had receded”, although the Board remains quite cautious around the outlook for China.
Conclusion
These minutes strengthen our conviction that the Board would be comfortable easing rates further at the February meeting. The flow of economic data over the next six weeks will be critical to that decision, particularly the labour market; retail sales and confidence.
Given our forecasts, Westpac is comfortable with our current view that the RBA will reduce the cash rate from 0.75% to 0.50% at the February Board meeting. 
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA highlight importance of February 2020 meeting: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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As Christmas fast approaches, it will be great to see some signs of growing consumer confidence and Australians breaking the spending shackles for the festive season. 
Recently there have been some positive signs for the economy and a push by the federal government for banks to relax lending standards for small business. 
With official interest rates below one per cent for the first time in our history, the RBA can take a well-earned summer holiday as the rate cuts it has delivered this year have made an important contribution to boosting consumer confidence. 
Having upbeat consumers is the key to an economic turnaround and the domestic economy is still showing signs of improvement. It is good to see the government talking to the banks about the way they have been applying the responsible lending guidelines to small and medium-sized enterprises. By supporting more lending and our SMEs we should see positive signs of further economic improvement.
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In this environment there is no real need for the RBA to do much more until they get a better view of the economy in the first quarter of next year. 
In the lead up to the summer break, I again urge mortgage holders to regularly review their home loans to ensure they are getting the best possible deal. Mortgage holders should never be complacent about their home loan. With interest rates at record lows, lenders are willing to battle for your business. Contact a mortgage broker to make sure you are getting the best terms and, most importantly, saving money.
John Kolenda is the chief executive of mortgage broking giant Finsure and is the top shareholder in the listed real estate group The Agency.
 
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Upbeat consumers are the key to an economic turnaround: John Kolenda

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A retail site on Burke Road in Camberwell has sold for $4,415,000.
The 205 sqm building at 769-771 Burke Road was purchased by a South Australian investor following a competitive auction that attracted six bidders.
The shop is located between the intersection of Burke, Riverside and Camberwell Roads and Camberwell train station, and adjacent to the Camberwell Place Shopping Centre.
It is currently leased to apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica.
CBRE’s Mark Wizel, Rorey James, Nick Hage and JJ Heng managed the campaign, with the property attracting a mix of domestic and international interest.
The purchase price translates to a building rate of $21,536 sqm, and follows the sales of 755 Burke Road for $5.05 million and 509-513 Riverside Road for $4.65 million.
Mr Wizel said, "we are expecting similar levels of demand and confidence in CBRE’s remaining retail opportunities in the build-up to Christmas."
“The current low interest rates and reduced supply of quality retail opportunities through the first half of 2019 has resulted in a flight to quality from investors seeking an alternative to declining term deposit rates,” he concluded
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Burke Road, Camberwell shop sold for $4.4 million

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia’s public finances remain in good shape with the Federal Government on course to deliver its first Budget surplus in 12 years. But new spending measures since the April 2 Budget and the 2019 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) have been limited at a time when Australia’s annual economic growth rate has slowed to decade lows.
Prior to the release of today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the Federal Government claimed that around $9.5 billion worth of stimulus had already been rolled out over the next two years - including income tax cuts, drought-relief and infrastructure spending. The MYEFO included new net spending of $8 billion over the next four years.
So what is driving Australia’s solid Budget position? Fiscal discipline. The Government claims real spending growth of just 1.3 per cent is around the lowest in 50 years and payments as a share of GDP at 24.5 per cent are below the 30-year historical average of 24.7 per cent. In fact, spending is $1.4 billion lower this fiscal year. The annualised deficit in the year to October (latest available) is just $78 million, suggesting that a surplus is tantalisingly close – even if the government doesn’t increase spending considerably.
Also, our exporters are going gangbusters. The weaker Aussie dollar, reduced seaborne supply out of Brazil and Chinese stimulus have boosted demand for steel-making ingredient iron ore, keeping ferrous prices elevated. And with most commodity prices higher, Australian miners - which account for around 40 per cent of total company profits - have lifted overall company tax revenue. In fact, company profits were up 10.2 per cent over the year to September to record highs. That said, overall company tax revenues are still expected to be down by $700 million this fiscal year and almost $8 billion over the forward estimates.
The estimated Budget surplus has been revised down from $7.1 billion to $5.0 billion this fiscal year; downgraded from $11 billion to $6.1 billion in 2020/21; and lower by $9.4 billion to $8.4 billion in 2021/22. Sluggish economic growth and tepid wages growth have weighed on GST receipts (down $1.8 billion in 2019/20) through lower consumer spending. And lower superannuation taxes paid and non-tax revenues have also lowered revenue by $32.6 billion over the 4-year forward estimates.
As expected, the Government has downgraded its near term forecasts for economic growth, inflation, wages growth and business investment in the near term. But the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady around current levels of 5.3 per cent. And Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has stressed that “the outlook for the Australian economy is positive”, with economic activity expected to return to its long-run average growth of 3 per cent by 2021/22, supported by personal income tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
Petrol prices are irritatingly high across Australia at the moment. Unleaded retail petrol prices have hit peaks near $1.75 a litre in major capital cities in the past week – well above the national wholesale or Terminal Gate Price (TGP) of around $1.35 a litre. Prices are set to gradually ease by the weekend, but will remain elevated at $1.60-$1.70 a litre for most of this week. Of course, the timing couldn’t be worse. Most of us are about to hit the road for summer holidays and there is increased traffic on the road as the ‘mad dash’ for the shopping malls and Christmas parties continue. Airport drop-offs and pick-ups are also increasing too in the lead-up to New Year.
So why are petrol prices so high? Australia is a net importer of oil and the weaker Aussie dollar against the greenback has pushed up the cost of refined petroleum product from Singapore this year. Oil charges have also lifted at a time when crude oil prices are hovering near 3-month highs. Supply restraint by OPEC and Russia along with better demand sentiment associated with the US-China trade truce have pushed up crude oil prices.
What do the figures show?
Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) 2019/20
The Federal Government is projecting a $5.0 billion underlying cash surplus (0.3 per cent of GDP) for the current financial year. The April 2019 Budget had forecast a surplus this fiscal year of $7.1 billion. A Budget surplus of $6.1 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) is now expected in 2020/21. By 2021/22, the surplus is expected to be $8.4 billion or 0.4 per cent of GDP, before falling to a forecast surplus of $4.0 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in 2022/23.
The net operating balance is expected to be in surplus by $8.0 billion this fiscal year (2019/20). The April Budget had forecast a $12.9 billion surplus this year. The surplus is forecast to lift to $12.1 billion in 2020/21.
Debt: Net debt is projected to be $392.3 billion in 2019/20 or 19.5 per cent of GDP. Net debt is expected to fall to $379.2 billion (18.4 per cent of GDP) in 2020/21 then $360.8 billion (or 16.0 per cent of GDP) by 2022/23.
Gross debt, in per cent of GDP terms, is estimated to decline from 27.7 per cent of GDP in 2019/20 to 25.5 per cent of GDP by the end of the forward estimates.
Revenue: Since the 2019 Pre-election Economic &amp; Fiscal Outlook (PEFO), expected total receipts have been revised down by around $3.0 billion in 2019/20 and $32.6 billion over the four years to 2022-23. The near-term downward revisions are largely attributable to downgrades to superannuation fund taxes, GST and non-tax receipts. Downward revisions from 2020/21 to 2022/23 reflect falling individual taxes, company tax and GST receipts. Tax receipts are projected to remain below the Government’s tax-to-GDP cap of 23.9 per cent over the medium term.
Expenses: The payments-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 24.5 per cent in 2019/20, rising to 24.8 per cent by 2020/21, near the 30-year historical average of 24.7 per cent. Average annual real growth in payments is expected to be 1.3 per cent across the forward estimates.
Policy decisions: Since the 2019 PEFO, new policy decisions in the 2019/20 MYEFO have reduced payments by $1.3 billion over the four years to 2022/23. And the estimated impact over the forward estimates of remaining unlegislated Budget repair measures, announced prior to the 2019/20 MYEFO - after taking account of parameter changes - is now +$4.9 billion. This comprises around $2.3 billion of receipt increases and around $2.5 billion of payment savings.
Commodity assumptions: The iron ore spot price is assumed to remain at US$55 per tonne free-on-board (FOB) over the forecast period. The metallurgical coal price is assumed to remain around current levels of US$134 per tonne FOB over the forecast period, below the assumed by the 2019 PEFO of US$150 per tonne FOB. The thermal coal price is assumed to be US$64 per tonne FOB over the forecast period, below the 2019 PEFO assumption of US$91 per tonne FOB.
Economic outlook: Economic (real GDP) growth is forecast to be 2.25 per cent in 2019/20, down from 2.75 per cent estimated in the April Budget. Real GSP growth is forecast to lift to 2.75 per cent in 2020/21 and 3 per cent annually by 2021/22. Wage growth, which was forecast at 2.75 per cent in the April Budget, has been downgraded to a weaker 2.5 per cent for the next two years, with the government not forecasting a return to 3 per cent growth until 2022/23. Inflation forecasts have also been lowered by 25 basis points to 2.0 per cent this fiscal year (2019/20) and 2.25 per cent in 2020/21. The unemployment rate has been revised up to 5.25 per cent over the next couple of fiscal years before falling to 5 per cent in 2021/22 and 2022/23. Estimated business investment is now forecast to be 1.5 per cent this fiscal year, down from the 5 per cent projected in the 2019 PEFO.
Credit rating implications: S&amp;P Global Ratings has reiterated that it expects the Government to maintain strong fiscal discipline and policy settings in order to retain Australia’s prized sovereign AAA credit rating.
Petrol prices
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol rose by 9.9 cents to 154.8 cents a litre last week. The metropolitan price rose by 14.5 cents to 157.8 cents a litre and the regional price lifted by 0.6 cents to 148.6 cents a litre.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up 20.6 cents to 159.2 c/l), Melbourne (up 20.7 cents to 161.1 c/l), Brisbane (up 26.0 cents to 168.3 c/l), Adelaide (down 18.5 cents to 142.9 c/l), Perth (down 0.6 cents to 145.6 c/l), Darwin (down 0.6 cents to 142.1 c/l), Canberra (unchanged at 147.7 c/l) and Hobart (unchanged at 156.0 c/l).
The smoothed gross retail margin (2-month rolling average) for unleaded petrol rose from 13.51 cents a litre to 15.00 cents a litre (24-month average: 13.2 cents a litre).
The national average diesel petrol price was unchanged at 149.0 cents a litre over the week. The metropolitan price fell by 0.1 cent to 147.5 cents a litre and the regional price was flat at 150.2 cents a litre.
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 134.6 cents a litre, down by 0.1 cent over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 137.1 cents a litre, up by 1.0 cent over the past week.
MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel in capital cities today: Sydney 163.3c; Melbourne 164.4c; Brisbane 167.4c; Adelaide 166.5c; Perth 135.0c; Canberra 147.6c; Darwin 142.1c; Hobart 156.0c.
The key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$2.58 or 3.4 per cent last week to US$73.65 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $5.13 or 4.6 per cent to $106.34 a barrel or 66.88 cents a litre.
Purchasing managers’ survey - December
The Commonwealth Bank/IHS Markit ‘flash’ purchasing manager (PMI) survey for manufacturing fell from 49.9 points in November to a 3½-year low of 49.4 points in December. The services index fell from 49.7 points in November to 49.5 points in December. Any reading below 50 indicates a contraction of activity.
According to the Commonwealth Bank, “The PMI readings indicate that the Australian economy ended 2019 on a softish note. The RBA’s “gentle turning point” for the economy remains elusive. And the weakness in private spending evident in the Q3 GDP data looks to have continued in Q4, with a flow on to labour demand as well. There were also some early indications that the disruptions associated with the terrible bushfires around Sydney and elsewhere are having some impact”. New orders continue to rise, however, indicating a degree of resilience in the domestic economy. The rise in new export business also indicates a degree of resilience to the sluggish global backdrop”.
Chinese economic data - November
Retail sales rose at an 8.0 per cent annual rate in the year to November (consensus: +7.6 per cent), up from the 7.2 per cent annual rate in the year to October.
Industrial production rose at a 6.2 per cent annual rate in November (consensus: +5.0 per cent). Production had risen by 4.7 per cent in the year to October.
Fixed-asset investment rose by 5.2 per cent in the 11 months to November on a year earlier (consensus: +5.2 per cent), unchanged from the 5.2 per cent lift recorded over the 10 months to October - the weakest annual growth rate since records began in 1998.
Property investment rose by 10.2 per cent in the 11 months to November on a year earlier, down from the 10.3 per cent annual growth rate in October.
The unemployment rate (nationwide survey-based jobless rate) was steady at 5.1 per cent in November.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February 2020. It appears that Governor Philip Lowe’s pleas for significant fiscal easing in today’s MYEFO have ‘fallen on deaf ears’.
Aussies are pessimistic at the moment with consumer and business confidence both in the doldrums. The export and government sectors are propping up the economy, but businesses and consumers remain on a spending strike. So an even greater fiscal response appears necessary - to complement record low interest rates - in order to cajole businesses to invest and hire with consumers currently banking tax cuts and paying down debt.
The Federal Government’s solid fiscal position gives it scope to lift spending to support economic growth when it hands down the May 2020 Budget. Aside from ‘big ticket’ public transport infrastructure projects, perhaps greater attention should be given to providing tax relief for small businesses? The asset write-off threshold could be lifted further (to above $30,000) and tax cuts (to 25 per cent) brought forward from 2021/22.
And with stamp duty money from the buoyant property market filling the coffers again, payroll tax exemptions should be a top priority for state governments – especially for agricultural and manufacturing-focused businesses. The drought continues to weigh on farm GDP and manufacturing activity is contracting by the most in 3½ years.
China’s economy appears to be stabilising into year-end. A big lift in industrial production and retail spending along with a bottoming in fixed asset investment suggests that stimulus may finally be working. The better-than-expected data dump comes after the US-China trade détente announced on Friday. While a roll-back in tariffs appears unlikely until at least February, the partial trade agreement at least provides greater certainty to businesses and may boost investment.
While Chinese authorities have maintained their desire to keep economic growth within a “reasonable range” at last week’s top level government meetings, the annual economic growth target is still expected to be adjusted lower to around 6 per cent in 2020. But in good news for Australia, it appears the policymakers plan to spend even more on infrastructure next year to stabilise growth.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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