<p><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.</p>

<p>"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]</p>

<p>Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;</p>

<p>This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.</p>

<p>"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.</p>

<p>At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]</p>

<p>The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.</p>

<p>"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.</p>

<p>"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.</p>

<p><em>Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]</p>


Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.</p>

<p>The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.</p>

<p>Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.</p>

<p>“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.</p>

<p>“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]</p>

<p>The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.</p>

<p>Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.</p>

<p>When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.</p>

<p>“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.</p>

<p>“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]</p>

<p>Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.</p>

<p>Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.</p>

<p>“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]</p>

<p>The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.</p>

<p>Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.</p>

<p>“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”</p>

<p>The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]</p>


MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This week, historic negative economic outcomes were seen in both Europe and the US. Financial markets instead focused on the wave of stimulus announced, particularly in the US.</p>
<p>Of the data released, the first focus for markets was the Markit PMI’s for key developed nations. Whereas the shock ex-China to date has been concentrated in manufacturing, services were hit hard in the March preliminary reading. In Japan, the service PMI fell from 46.8 in February to 32.7 in March; in the US, a similar decline was seen from 49.4 to 39.1; while in Europe, the loss was a staggering 24pts from 52.6 to 28.4 – a very unfavorable comparison to the GFC low of 39.2 in 2009. </p>
<p>While severe, these shocks pale in contrast to the deterioration seen this week in US initial jobless claims. As we flagged last week, the first few weeks of the US contagion have seen a never-before-seen increase in US unemployment. Following the 71k increase in the last report to 282k claimants, in this update a further 3 million new claimants were reported, taking initial claims to 3.28 million. Prior to this outcome, the historic peak was 695k back in 1982.</p>
<p>Note that while the 2020 initial outcome is almost five times the scale of the 1982 peak, the labour force has only grown 50% since. Moreover, this week’s outcome will not be a one off. It is still early days in this crisis; job losses have been staggered; and there have been numerous reports of claim backlogs to be assessed. Clearly the US is facing into an immense shock. </p>
<p>It is not surprising then that the US Congress has responded with a stimulus package also of historic proportions ($2 trillion). This will include support to all low and middle-income households in the form of cash handouts; extended unemployment benefits; loans to small business which can be forgiven in time if the funds are used for certain purposes such as keeping on staff; as well as loans to support large business cash flow.</p>
<p>These are significant measures, but are unlikely to materially reduce the shock coming to their economy. This is in part because the stimulus will only partly offset the loss of income from job loss and as confidence’s decline will hit discretionary spending hard. But primarily it is because the US COVID-19 case count continues to rise rapidly, meaning the country is nowhere near a point of stabilisation which it can begin to recover from. Highlighting this, the New York Times today reported that the US now has more confirmed cases than China experienced. Moreover, the global state of affairs also remains dire, with severe cases continuing to increase rapidly across Europe.</p>
<p>The shock to growth coming from abroad is also having a clear impact on Australia and New Zealand. But more pressing is the domestic spread of COVID-19. The current situation for our two nations has been summarised this week by Westpac Group Chief Economist Bill Evans and New Zealand Chief Economist Dominick Stephens. For Australia, further detail on the expected depth of the deterioration in our labour market and economy was also released by Westpac Economics, as was our forecast of the implications for the Federal Government’s fiscal position and government debt.</p>
<p>For our labour market, given the implementation of stricter restrictions on our economy, we now anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate to a peak of 11% by mid-2020, to be sustained through the September quarter. This will come as a result of the loss of over 800k jobs and as the economy contracts by 4.0% over the year to September 2020.  As the economy is restored to a more normal footing in the September and December quarters, activity will bounce and the unemployment rate fall – we believe to 8.8% end-2020 and 8.0% end-2021.</p>
<p>Still, that is a much weaker end point than anticipated prior to COVID-19. Hence, not only will the recession of 2020 hit the Government’s fiscal position, but there will also be a lasting impact. On top of this shock to activity and Government revenue is the cost of stimulus, to steady the economy amid immense uncertainty.</p>
<p>In summary, we anticipate a deterioration in the Federal budget from balance in 2018/19 to a 4.5% of GDP deficit ($90bn) in 2019/20 and a deficit of 8% of GDP ($160bn) come 2020/21. In 2019/20, 2ppts ($40bn) comes as a result of policy stimulus while 2.5ppts ($50bn) is due to the apparent cyclical deterioration. The 2020/21 deficit of 8% of GDP meanwhile includes 3ppts ($60bn) from policy stimulus and 5ppts ($100bn) is due to cyclical deterioration. As a result, the supply of government securities on issue will rise by $250bn to $820bn (40% of GDP) by June 2021.</p>
<p><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong><em> is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> </em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

A global crisis and stimulus of historic proportions: Elliot Clarke

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. </p>
<div>The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hvDFQnnUDFc/XoEkUmFcDwI/AAAAAAAA0-g/kJsvvAY_qkA1kCAlrBxC2lwTrPX1OuK-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Crude.jpg" width="640" height="318" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.<br><br><strong>Stage 3 rolled out</strong><br><br>There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).<br><br>Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Oil prices are at a 17-year low: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
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<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
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<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
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<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
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<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
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<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
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<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
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<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
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<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
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<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
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<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
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<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
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<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
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<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
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<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
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<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
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<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
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<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
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<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
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<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
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<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
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<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
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<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
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<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
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<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
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<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
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<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
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<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
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<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
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<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
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<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
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<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
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<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
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<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
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<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
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<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
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<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
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<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
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<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
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<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
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<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
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<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
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<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
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<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
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<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
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<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
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<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
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<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
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<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
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<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
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<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
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<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
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<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
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<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
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<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
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<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
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<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
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<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">Along with home delivery of </span>groceries<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;">, </span>pharmaceuticals<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;"> and </span>alcohol<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;">, demand for food delivery is booming.</span></p>
<p>Services such as Uber Eats and Deliveroo have become essential to cafes and restaurants that can now only sell takeaway food.</p>
<p>It is good news for the likes of Uber, whose stock price has risen since it announced a ten-fold increase in the number of restaurants signing themselves up to <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-eats-growth-coronavirus-delivery-140101683" target="_blank">Uber Eats</a>.</p>
<p>But it’s a situation that has provoked serious questions. Not only about whether delivery services are safe, but <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/godforbid/the-covid-19-conundrum/12095750" target="_blank">whether it’s ethical to use them</a>.</p>
<p>Digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog are not, after all, ideal employers. In fact, they don’t regard themselves as employers at all, merely facilitators of work by “independent contractors”.</p>
<p>Food delivery drivers and riders often work for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/20/food-delivery-bike-couriers-in-australia-being-underpaid-by-up-to-322-a-week" target="_blank">less than the minimum wage</a>, and have no employee rights such as sick leave.</p>
<p>Now we are collectively relying on them to provide an essential service during social distancing, we need to ask what, as a society, we owe these workers in return.</p>
<h2>Vulnerable to exploitation</h2>
<p>We’re interested in how this economic crisis affects food delivery drivers and riders due to our research into the experience of migrant gig workers.</p>
<p>Our research has found migrants are already “socially distanced”, without deep networks of family or friends. They are vulnerable to exploitation and discrimination.</p>
<p>Most food delivery work is done by migrants, through third-party digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog. The platforms treat drivers and riders as independent contractors, not employees with the protections and rights of employees.</p>
<p>A 2019 survey <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/revealing-the-true-size-of-australias-gig-workforce/" target="_blank">commissioned by the Victorian government</a> suggested about 7% of the workforce used digital platforms to get gig work, the most common being Airtasker (35%), Uber (23%), Freelancer (12%), Uber Eats (11%) and Deliveroo (8%).</p>
<p>Previous research suggests <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-way-they-manipulate-people-is-really-saddening-study-shows-the-trade-offs-in-gig-work-79042" target="_blank">many choose gig work</a> simply because it is better than other forms of low-paid work.</p>
<p>Now food delivery workers face pressure from those displaced from such jobs in hospitality or retail. Complicating the situation is the lack of clarity about whether those on temporary work visas are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/22/what-australias-189bn-coronavirus-economic-rescue-package-means-for-you" target="_blank">eligible for income support</a> announced for other workers.</p>
<p>Platforms don’t owe gig workers a minimum wage so can sign up as many “independent contractors” as they like. This improves the service for customers, and increases profit for the platform, but means individual deliverers make less money.</p>
<h2>Increased health risks</h2>
<p>Many delivery services are <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-australia-uber-eats-deliveroo-drive-thru_au_5e71a846c5b63c3b6486e11a" target="_blank">implementing contactless delivery</a> procedures. But the lack of defined employer responsibility in the platform economy means patchy attention to the extra physical and mental health risks gig workers now face.</p>
<p>Unions and others have urged delivery platforms <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-06/gig-economy-workers-uber-deliveroo-ola-coronavirus-outbreak/12022072" target="_blank">to provide protective equipment</a> such as gloves, face masks and sanitisers. Responses from platforms have been limited.</p>
<p>This was Uber Eats’ response on March 17, by its regional general manager for the Asia Pacific, <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">Jodie Auster</a>:</p>
<p><em>Our plan to address challenges born by COVID-19 includes making A$5 million in funding available for independent restaurants across Australia and New Zealand. The multi-million dollar fund will allow restaurants to deploy promotions to attract customers and will help restaurants time promotions to suit their individual business needs.</em></p>
<p>What Auster didn’t mention was a plan to issue safety gear, though she did note the company had started a campaign “reminding Uber Eats users that they can request deliveries be left on their doorsteps”.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, delivery workers are scared <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/union-seeking-protections-for-delivery-drivers/12094366" target="_blank">they will catch the coronavirus</a>.</p>
<p>Uber says it will financially assist drivers and riders “diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed in quarantine by a public health authority” for a period of <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">up to 14 days</a>.</p>
<p>But what if a worker with viral symptoms wants to self-isolate as a precaution? There’s no sick leave or workers compensation, and they risk “deactivation” if work isn’t accepted.</p>
<h2>Legal protection</h2>
<p>Social distancing measures mean the delivery economy and the health of the general population are now intimately linked.</p>
<p>To secure and safeguard this now essential service, it is time the law ensured gig workers have the same legal rights and protections as other employees.</p>
<p>We need the delivery drivers coming to our doors to be healthy. That health depends on their safety as well as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/food-ordering-safe-ethical-coronavirus-with-seamless-uber-eats-should-i-get-takeaway" target="_blank">economic and social inclusion</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134406/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tyler-riordan-1002045" target="_blank">Tyler Riordan</a>, PhD Candidate, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gerhard-hoffstaedter-9125" target="_blank">Gerhard Hoffstaedter</a>, Associate professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-robinson-958290" target="_blank">Richard Robinson</a>, Research Fellow/Hospitality Management, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/delivery-workers-are-now-essential-they-deserve-the-rights-of-other-employees-134406" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Delivery workers are now essential, they deserve the same rights

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<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">The novel coronavirus sees Australia facing major unprecedented health and economic crises. The key to preventing a downward spiral of the economy is to avoid a collapse in incomes of newly laid-off workers who won’t be able to afford what they normally purchase, and temporarily closed businesses which won’t be able to pay rents or other fixed costs, nor buy goods and services to trade.</span></p>
<p>It is likely that once a vaccine is delivered by science, or even before, the economic recovery will begin. Thus the question: what are the most equitable ways to handle this major short-term trauma?</p>
<p>There is an instrument that should be used to add to the size and efficacy of the necessary fiscal boost. Income contingent loans provide extra financial support without threatening future fiscal solvency.</p>
<h2>What are income contingent loans?</h2>
<p>Most people in Australia would be familiar with our HECS (Higher Education Contribution Scheme) for tertiary education fees. Students take a loan from the government to cover the cost of their university now, and pay it back when they are earning over a certain threshold in the future.</p>
<p>In what was a world-first, Australia implemented this style of loan scheme in 1989 and it has now been copied in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/economics-of-education-review/vol/71/suppl/C">around ten other countries</a>.</p>
<p>For those with a HECS debt, when incomes are low in certain periods, such as from unemployment, looking after an infant or caring for aged parents, no repayments are required at that time.</p>
<p>The government gets the money back later when the debtor’s financial situation has improved. This is known as an “income contingent loan”.</p>
<h2>How could we use these loans for the COVID crisis?</h2>
<p>It’s useful to distinguish three categories of financial stress that have emerged and which an income contingent loan could assist:</p>
<p>1) for individual employees recently, or soon to be, laid off</p>
<p>2) small businesses forced by health rules or insufficient trade to suspend activity</p>
<p>3) large businesses forced by health rules or insufficient trade to suspend activity.</p>
<p>Income contingent loans can be designed for all three cases although each is quite different.</p>
<p><strong>1. Now jobless employees</strong></p>
<p>For employees now jobless, a HECS-type system could take the form of the government providing a fixed payment (for example $5,000) per person. Some part of that payment would be required to be repaid according to existing (or new) HECS parameters.</p>
<p>Those people whose incomes do not recover repay nothing, or much less than those who regain their financial security (who would repay fairly quickly). The experience of 30 years of efficient HECS collection, including lessons learned, has shown us this would all be administratively straightforward.</p>
<p><strong>2. Affected small businesses</strong></p>
<p>In the case of an income-contingent loan for business, a different approach should be used, that doesn’t involve personal incomes. What is needed instead is a revenue-contingent loan – a system designed and promoted by Linda Botterill and Bruce Chapman nearly 20 years ago.</p>
<p>The reporting of business revenue is a quarterly legal requirement of business through the existing Business Activity Statement which is used to collect the GST. Unlike profits, revenue cannot legally be manipulated to suit the timing of repayments. The revenue-contingent loan obligation would be linked to the Australian Business Number.</p>
<p>In the case of a small business, the government could provide a loan, which would be capped at a level reflecting a firm’s capacity to repay when revenues recover. This could be a fixed amount (for example 25%) of the average of the past three years of annual revenue.</p>
<p>To minimise the chance of non-repayment, eligibility could be restricted to firms that have a good chance of future solvency as reflected, for example, in them having been around for a fixed number of years (for example three years).</p>
<p>The government would need to set a repayment rate, and past modelling has revealed small rates of say 5% to 8% of future annual revenues would be sufficient.</p>
<p>To make sure all this would be equitable for business and healthy for future budgets, the government would need to now model different loan amounts, and different collection and interest rates.</p>
<p>Modelling the different assumptions for budgetary planning would be required to be more precise about the policy details.</p>
<p><strong>3. Bigger businesses</strong></p>
<p>In the case of assistance for not-so-small business, the sums of money needed for the current situation necessitate the involvement of the banks in cooperation with the government.</p>
<p>Government is not equipped to take over large-scale commercial borrowing. But a revenue-contingent loan would still have an important role to play in such a partnership with commercial banks for current not-so-small financial borrowing needs.</p>
<p>The arrangement of joint bank and government lending would be the government providing a revenue-contingent loan which is a proportion of the bank loan. The government loan could repay the bank loan in the very short-term until business reopens and recovers.</p>
<p>A partnership of this kind would be ideal for business, which then has the capacity to repay the normal loan even when there is no short-term revenue coming in.</p>
<p>It would also be beneficial for the banks, which would then have far higher prospects of full loan recovery. It also provides a future return to the taxpayer for the government support of banks during these difficult economic times.</p>
<p>The provision of income contingent loans to individuals, and the revenue contingent loans for business, would have major potential to sustain the Australian economy during a sharp temporary downturn, while not putting additional pressure on future fiscal solvency. This is a bridge to a sustainable recovery.</p>
<p><em>The authors are fellows of the Academy of the Social Sciences Australia. However these views are their own and not representative of the Academy.</em><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134998/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linda-botterill-92314" target="_blank">Linda Botterill</a>, Professor in Australian Politics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865" target="_blank">University of Canberra</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-chapman-2186" target="_blank">Bruce Chapman</a>, Director, Policy Impact, College of Business and Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenn-withers-12585" target="_blank">Glenn Withers</a>, Professor of Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129" target="_blank">Warwick McKibbin</a>, Chair in Public Policy, ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/give-people-and-businesses-money-now-they-can-pay-back-later-if-and-when-they-can-134998" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Give people and businesses money now they can pay back later (if and when they can)

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Economists just love to forecast. And forecast often. Indeed they can’t help themselves – even when there is a paucity of past experiences to provide guidance, economists are out there forecasting.</p>
<p>At this stage, clearly it is near impossible to make accurate predictions. Much depends on how quickly the number of COVID-19 cases can be controlled. Also much depends on how quickly treatments and a vaccine can be found for the virus.</p>
<p>These are extraordinary times with no exact precedent.</p>
<p>The best approach to forecasting is shown by the International Monetary Fund, expressing in general terms the likelihood of a global recession in 2020 but not speculating on the size of the fall.</p>
<p>Australia is also at risk of recession. But it is important to note that the Reserve Bank and Federal, State and Territory governments are providing massive support for the economy and financial markets. The economic impact of COVID-19 is also quite variable across businesses and sectors. Travel, recreation and hospitality businesses have been most affected. But supermarkets, electrical goods stores, some transport businesses and sporting goods retailers have noted firmer demand. And infrastructure construction has been little affected.</p>
<p>Notably, in past recessions caused by an external shock (such as 1975 due to the oil price shock), the Australian economy has bounced back quickly. But again, much depends on how quickly the virus can be contained.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%201.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The Global Financial Crisis (GFC)</span></p>
<p>The keenness for economic forecasting was certainly a feature of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – an economic event with few parallels. Economists were certain that Australia would follow the world into recession. But recession was avoided. (A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters where economic activity (gross domestic product or GDP) declines.)</p>
<p>In October 2008 and February 2009, massive stimulus was provided by the Government and central bank, and it worked to stabilise the economy. In fact when we look back at the GFC many actually believe that the economic support measures were too generous. The economy contracted 0.5 per cent in December quarter and GDP bounced back by 1.0 per cent in the March quarter. The economy didn’t experience another quarterly contraction in output until March 2011 (Cyclone Yasi) even including the period of the 2009 swine flu.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Past recessions</span></p>
<p>But this period is different. It has been caused by an external shock – and indeed a medical, not financial shock. Most downturns or recessions – both here and abroad – have occurred through financial means, basically policy mistakes. That is, central banks have responded to periods of “irrational exuberance” by lifting rates too far, causing people to cut spending, and causing businesses to trim spending, hiring of staff and investment.</p>
<p><strong>So when have recessions occurred in Australia?</strong> There have been seven periods of recession since quarterly records were first maintained in 1959: 1961, 1971/72, 1975, 1977, 1981/82, 1982/83 and 1991 (many observers view the period from 1981-1983 as one event). Clearly there were also economic downturns before 1959 such as the Great Depression.</p>
<p>The common finding is that most of these periods of recession also occurred in advanced nations, notably the US. Most recessions occurred after a period of tighter financial conditions.</p>
<p>One downturn of note was 1975. And the US and other advanced economies also experienced recessions at that time. The US was in recession from November 1973 to March 1975. And a key cause was an external “shock” – a financial rather than medical event – the first oil shock in 1973 when oil prices soared by 400 per cent in response to an oil embargo. Central banks responded to soaring inflation by lifting interest rates.</p>
<p>In January 1973 the 90 day bank bill rate was 4.70 per cent. Rates steadily increased over 1973 and 1974, peaking at 21.75 per cent in May 1974. Ahead of the 1975 recession, 90 day bills still stood at 9.8 per cent.</p>
<p>Interestingly the Australian economy contracted by 2.6 percentage points over the September and December quarters of 1975 and then rebounded 4.4 per cent in March quarter 1976, expanding over the next year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/27/recessions%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Medical emergencies</span></p>
<p>Three medical emergencies that are most cited are SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003, swine flu in 2009 and the 1919 Spanish influenza. The SARS epidemic first appeared in late 2002 in Guangdong, China and ended in July 2003. Swine flu appeared in April 2009, extending to August 2010. </p>
<p>The main impact SARS had on the Australian economy was on the travel sector. Australian GDP was weak in 2003, rising just 0.4 per cent in the first half before rebounding 3.4 per cent over the second half of the year.</p>
<p>Assessing the impact of the 1919 Spanish flu is complicated by the end of World War 1. It has been estimated that real aggregate gross domestic product declined by 9.5 percent between 1914 and 1920. The loss of 60,000 service people in the war depressed economic activity, and extended through the early 1920s.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment</span></p>
<p>In past economic downturns, unemployment has understandably lifted. But, as stressed, no two periods are the same. While Australia didn’t experience a recession in the GFC, the unemployment rate did lift in the slower economy – lifting from 4 per cent to 5.9 per cent in the space of 11 months. </p>
<p>In the recessions of 1990-1991 and 1981-83, unemployment rose from 5-6 per cent to 10-11 per cent in around a two-year period.</p>
<p>In the current period, the jobless rate stands at a near 8-year low of 5.1 per cent. As the downturn has been caused by an external ‘shock’ the jobless rate will likely rise more quickly. A raft of retail, hospitality, arts and recreation staff have been stood down. However, job creation is occurring in supermarkets, grocery stores, some health businesses and delivery/courier businesses.</p>
<p>While unemployment will likely lift quickly to record levels, the government has lifted cash payments to prevent broader job losses. It is anticipated that jobless rates will fall quickly when the virus is contained and businesses are allowed to re-open.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/27/recessions%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Source: CommSec </p>
<h1><span>Sharemarket impact </span></h1>
<p>It may sound like a broken record but these are extraordinary times with no exact precedent. The volatility has been breath-taking as has the speed of sharemarket falls from highs.</p>
<p>After hitting record highs on February 20, the All Ordinaries index entered a ‘bear market’ 12 days later, down 21.3 per cent from highs. A bear market is generally defined as a fall of more than 20 per cent from highs.</p>
<p><span>The US Dow Jones index took 18 days to fall by more than 20 per cent from the February 12 record high. </span></p>
<p>The key issue for investors has been the difficulty in valuing companies in response to a largely unique external shock.</p>
<p><span>Past sharemarket downturns have been induced by economic or financial factors. </span></p>
<p><span>The speed of the current sharemarket contraction has similarities to the October 1987 sharemarket crash. On both occasions, sharemarkets were perceived to have become expensive, raising the prospect of corrections or a period of market consolidation to restore value for investors.</span></p>
<p><span>Interestingly, in the current period, sharemarkets initially were supported despite news of COVID-19. The initial perception was that the virus would be confined to China and the economic impact would be limited to ‘supply chains’ across the globe.</span></p>
<p><span>In 2007, it took 84 days for the All Ordinaries index to fall more than 20 per cent from the highs. In 1987, the sharemarket hit highs on September 21. It took 20 days for the All Ords to fall 10.9 per cent off its highs, before the massive 25 per cent fall on October 20.</span></p>
<p><span>Compared with 2020, again there was nowhere near the speed of falls in sharemarket declines over periods such as 1970-74, 1981-82, or 1990/91 when there were times of economic downturn.</span></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Looking back even further</span></p>
<p><span>Data on the Australian sharemarket goes back to 1875 although the first sharemarket was formed in Melbourne in 1861. There have been numerous events and shocks over time to affect the sharemarket including wars, commodity price shocks (oil, wool), financial crises and the technology crash. </span></p>
<p><span>But in terms of the severity of the downturn and volatility of the sharemarket, the COVID-19 virus crisis has few parallels. It is good to know that there is such a rich history of data to research. The important point is that each experience is different, especially in times of recovery from lows. But experience shows that it can take time for the sharemarket to regain highs. While no two periods are exactly the same, the sharpness of the current decline in share prices may lead to a quicker recovery process.</span></p>
<p><span>In relatively recent times, in 1960, it took 42 days for the sharemarket to fall 20 per cent from the September 16 high. It actually took 717 days for the sharemarket to regain its 1960 highs.</span></p>
<p><span>In the Great Depression, it took 6½ years for the Australian sharemarket to regain the February 1929 high. And it took more than 6 years for the September 1875 high to be exceeded.</span></p>
<p><span>Still, in weak economic times and affected by the Spanish flu, the sharemarket actually rose 19 per cent over 1919 and 1920.</span></p>
<p><strong><span>Residential property prices</span></strong></p>
<p>In Australia, consistent data on home prices goes back to 1980. It is also important to note that there can be marked differences in property cycles. For instance in the current environment, Perth and Darwin are at different points in the cycle from, say, Hobart or Canberra.</p>
<p>In the 1982 recession, house prices peaked in April 1982 and fell 6.4 per cent over the next year. It took 21 months to regain its previous highs.</p>
<p>In the 1990/91 recession there was no appreciable downturn in house prices.</p>
<p>In the 2007/08 GFC, house prices peaked in February 2008 and then fell 8.5 per cent over the next 11 months. It took 21 months for house prices to regain previous highs.</p>
<p>In the current period, house prices fell 9.3 per cent in the 21 months from October 2017. In the recovery since August 2019, house prices have lifted 7.8 per cent.</p>
<h1><span>What are the implications for investors?</span></h1>
<p>These are extraordinary times. Australia and the globe are experiencing a shock like no other. But it is important to note – unlike periods such as the Great Depression – governments and central banks are ‘doing all that it takes’ to support businesses, workers and the more vulnerable members of society. </p>
<p>Labs are working on vaccines and treatments such as those for malaria and tuberculosis are showing promise in killing the virus.</p>
<p>Economies were in good shape ahead of the crisis, in fact it was hard to find better economic ‘fundamentals’ in Australia.</p>
<p align="left">While it will be hard to avoid recession in Australia, it is not impossible. Sharemarkets will settle when virus cases peak (the curve flattens). And while unemployment will likely lift to historic highs, people will quickly return to work when businesses are allowed to re-open.</p>
<p align="left"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US"> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/27/recessions%202.png" alt=""></span></em></p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US">Source: CommSec </span></em></p>
<p align="left"><em><span lang="en-US"><em><span>CRAIG JAMES</span> is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

COVID-19: Making sense of the economic impact: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>Commercial landlords have been directed by the PM Scott Morrison to "sit down" with their commercial office, retail and industrial tenants to work out how to get through the coronavirus crisis.</p>
<p>And if commercial landlords don't then they risk missing out payments in the government's third rescue package.</p>
<p>"If you aren't going to engage in that sort of cooperative activity, between bank, between tenants and between landlords, then the sort of support that you might otherwise expect to receive, you will not receive," Mr Morrison said.</p>
<p><span>"We are in unchartered territory, but the goal should be shared and that is a business can reopen on the other side, not weighed down by excessive debts because of rental arrears, a landlord has a tenant so that they can continue into the future to be able to support the investments that they have made and banks have clients," he added.</span></p>
<p><span><span>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said on Insiders on Sunday that commercial landlords had limited capacity to replace tenants, and he urged a co-operative approach.</span></span></p>
<p>The six month ban on evictions, which has yet to be fully outlined, applies to commercial tenants as well as residential.</p>
<p><span><span>Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said he envisaged rental payments proportionate with rental income in these reduced circumstances would be part of the commercial tenancy </span></span>discussions.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">The president of the REIA, Adrian Kelly said while he is very supportive of the Government's efforts, the REIA was disappointed</span> with the simplistic approach of the Prime Minister’s message.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">He suggested the PM's message "ignores the tenancy arrangement and thus raises more questions than it answers."</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">“Real estate agents are the middle persons who facilitate the agreement between landlords and tenants and manage it as well as the property.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“There are some 70,000 property managers, principals, real estate agents and representatives across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">"</span>Tenants don’t negotiate with landlords.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“Banks have already indicated that they are </span>offering customers the option to defer home loan repayments for up to six months<span lang="EN-AU">.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“We need to address the support of agents so that what the Prime Minister wants, in terms of landlords and tenants - finding a solution to get through the crisis, can be achieved.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">“Estate agents will work very hard to facilitate the role between landlord and tenant, and to do this they need income.”</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU">“I note that National Cabinet is still to consider details,” concluded Mr Kelly.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU"> </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
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Commercial landlords directed by PM to "sit down" with commercial tenants to work through the coronavirus crisis

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content">3.283 million was the print for US initial jobless claims.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RBecYw6kZlY/XnyisN9hhXI/AAAAAAAA05k/GrFvyXTDTR0Mei8pw3Wzzy0tLMiCnHdwwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/US2.jpg" width="640" height="486" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1015"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Terrible stuff.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All previous crises are a tiny blip on the radar by comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It’s hard to compare with previous recessions...as there is simply no modern comparison.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The US unemployment rate could exceed 30 per cent by the end of next quarter, and Canada faces a similar mess.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer-driven economies without consumers will lie in ruins for as long as the shutdowns continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia’s Coronavirus figures look somewhat promising, but in America they’re spreading widely.</div>
<div>
<br>There are now more cases in the US than in China, or indeed any other country.<br><br>
</div>
<div><strong>Co-ordinated stimulus</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>More so than in any previous crises this will result in co-ordinated stimulus packages on an Olympic and unprecedented scale.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So far rates have been cut to zero, and we’re looking at an initial $2.2 trillion US government stimulus package, and more is likely to follow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Reserve also dropped an initial salvo of US$700 billion in quantitative easing, and since it’s promising ‘QE infinity’ for as long as it takes, it’s impossible to know how much printing will follow (answer: a lot).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Small businesses and households, as in Australia, will need access to loans or other funds to tide them through to the other side.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It won't just be America going down this route.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All around the world government debt is set to soar and central banks are pushing interest rates down to zero. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A number of markets have been crushed, but US stocks are still expensive, with only really the energy sector looking interesting.<br><br>Overall the expected returns on US and Aussie stocks are not yet of much interest at these levels and the bargains lie elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One step at a time, Australia needs to bring down cases of the Coronavirus first and foremost.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content">---</p>
<div>Some more old data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australian household wealth increased by +3.3 per cent in the December 2019 quarter, to hit a record high of $11.31 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main driver in Q4 was a +3.9 per cent increase in residential property prices.<br><br>Aussie total household wealth increased by +10 per cent in 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's average net worth per capita hit a record high of A$443,000 by the end of calendar year 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K60ksQnjY9s/Xn0t8289OhI/AAAAAAAA050/Dl8Ui-sG1uUpBT7CdZJoYuNXUbA7p4x6wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1373"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content">And the average or mean wealth per household had soared to well over A$1 million.</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wohuFMx9yng/Xn0uHYFhUUI/AAAAAAAA054/ibAp_V88F1MquVR-wNs0Oj8HBhNvr4fuwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1435"></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will report next week that housing prices increased in Q1 2020, including in the month of March 2020 itself.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, property  activity will now stall, and equities crashed in the first quarter of 2020 which will bring down superannuation balances.<br><br>Meanwhile, unemployment looks set to double...at least.</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Unemployment looks set to double... at least: Pete Wargent

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<p>Small business across Victoria are doing it tough as a result of coronavirus.</p>
<p>If a landlord and tenant are dealing with a situation where the tenant is having difficulty paying rent at this time, the<span> Victorian Small Business Commission (VSBC) </span>encourage both the landlord or their agent and tenant to communicate as early as possible.</p>
<p>"This is really important, as it helps to make sure both parties are aware of and understand each other’s position," the VSBC suggest.</p>
<p>They advise if tenants intend to request rent relief, they might need to provide business records to the landlord or agent.</p>
<p>Tenants in this situation need to keep accurate business records to help show how trade has been affected.</p>
<p>If a landlord, agent or tenant is unable to obtain a response from the other party, we might be able to help through the <a href="http://www.vsbc.vic.gov.au/dispute-resolution/how-mediation-works/" target="_blank">VSBC’s mediation service</a>.</p>
<p>VSBC mediations are currently running, with changes implemented in response to COVID-19.</p>
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Victorian small business struggles to deal with the coronavirus

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Demographic trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A quick break from the Coronavirus news which is evidently usurping the planet!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS reported that the capital cities population of Australia increased by +303,100 in FY 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Greater Sydney, which includes the Central Coast, increased by +87,100 or +1.7 per cent, and remained the most populated city at 5.31 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, Melbourne grew at the fastest pace, up by +113,500 or +2.3 per cent to 5.08 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As in previous years the densest locations included parts of inner-city Melbourne, Sydney's Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, and Ultimo-Pyrmont.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane's population increased quickly too, at +2.1 per cent or +52,600, to increase to 2.51 million.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ABS.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ABS.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="665"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: ABS</em></span></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Capital cities accounted for 79 per cent of population growth over the financial year, reported the ABS, and some 17 million Aussies now live in the capital cities.</div>
<p><br><span>Immigration will effectively be paused in 2020 due to the...well, you know what!</span><br><br><span><br></span></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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