Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION 
Last week the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) sent an <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/capital-management">extraordinary letter</a> to Australia’s banks and insurers, essentially telling them to cut their dividend payments to shareholders in light of the coronavirus crisis.
It said it expected banks and insurers to “seriously consider deferring decisions on the appropriate level of dividends”.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326728/original/file-20200409-188923-1pxiqkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326728/original/file-20200409-188923-1pxiqkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Read the full <a class="source" href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank">APRA letter to financial institutions, April 7, 2020</a>.
Where a board was confident that it could approve a dividend on the basis of robust stress testing that had been discussed with APRA, it should “nevertheless be at a materially reduced level”.
Where dividends were paid those payments should be “offset to the extent possible through the use of dividend reinvestment plans and other capital management initiatives”.
With Australia’s big four banks potentially suffering big losses due to mortgage defaults among other things, their capital bases are at risk.
Equity research analysts at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/08/world/asia/08reuters-health-coronavirus-australia-banks">Macquarie</a> outline a scenario under which bank losses reach A$25-27 billion per bank, and their capacity to pay dividends (without raising equity) materially diminishes
Why did APRA do it?
The letter isn’t a “ban” on dividends, and APRA wasn’t telling the banks anything they don’t already know. So why did it bother?
The answer lies in the economics of how investors react to firms that don’t pay the dividends expected.
Seen through that lens, APRA was very clever indeed.
In a classic 1985 paper <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02362.x">Merton Miller and Kevin Rock</a> provided a theoretical answer to the puzzle of why paying dividends seems to signal good news to investors, and why cutting dividends seems to signal bad news, and cuts the share price.
In the Miller-Rock model, the managers of a firm have better information about its future prospects than outside investors.
To keep it simple, imagine there are two “types” of firms: good and bad.
Good firms have high future cashflows, bad ones have low ones.
Only the managers know which is which.
Because both types of firm can earn something from investing in the business, it is in the interest of both (more so the good firm) to invest rather than pay out dividends.
Miller and Rock wondered whether what each type of firm did provided clues to investors about whether the managers thought it was good or bad.
Surprisingly, they found that usually good firms will pay high dividend and bad firms no dividends.
It is surprising because good firms are sacrificing more by paying dividends.
Their logic was that the bad firms were the least able to afford good dividends and that good firms knew this and paid high dividends to signal they could afford to.
It has a striking implication with <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w4244">strong empirical support</a>.
If a firm gets a temporary negative shock to its cashflow or investment prospects it won’t want to cut its dividend lest investors think it has turned “bad”.
It will borrow or even do short-term damage to its prospects in order to maintain investor confidence and hence a high stock price.
Get out of jail free
Notice that the signalling theory of dividends implies that the managers of firms would like to cut dividends in tough financial times, and probably should, but they worry about sending a bad signal to investors.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328304/original/file-20200416-192698-pj1hzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
An announcement like APRA’s provides them with cover – an excuse.
And it does more. It is what economists refer to as a “coordination device”.
If the big four banks got together and agreed cut their dividends by the same amount, say in half (which would be illegal) investors would get no differential signal and no new information about which bank was “good” and which was “bad”.
APRA’s message opens up the possibility of all four coordinating without talking – merely by following advice.
As 2005 Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling put it in his book, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674840317&amp;content=reviews">The Strategy of Conflict</a>,
"People can often concert their intentions or expectations with others if each knows that the other is trying to do the same."
And they’ve an interest in coordinating. If one bank falls over during this crisis and needs to be bailed out that’s bad for all of them. All of their stock prices will tank, it will be hard for them to raise the capital they need to fund their operations.
Australia’s banks compete, but they are “frenemies”, right now more friends than enemies.
We will have to wait and see if they pick up the get-out-of-jail card APRA has handed them and cut dividends together.
APRA could have taken a tougher stance. It could have banned dividends. But that would have sent a bad signal to domestic and international capital markets about the solvency of our banks.
I have been critical of some of APRA’s moves in recent years. But this one is brilliant. Let’s hope the banks can see a life raft when they’re offered one.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136407/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-apras-extraordinary-gift-to-banks-under-pressure-to-pay-dividends-136407">original article</a>.
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rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

APRA's extraordinary gift to banks under pressure to pay dividends

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Along with massive fiscal stimulus globally to deal with the impact of coronavirus shutdowns on the economy, the last month or so has also seen massive monetary easing – with the latest being the US Federal Reserve expanding its emergency lending program to $US2.3 trillion.
The economic shutdowns are necessary to slow the spread of coronavirus to take pressure off the medical system in order to minimise deaths. And because this will lead to a huge detraction in economic activity - we expect Australia and other developed countries to see a 10 to 15% fall in GDP centred on the current quarter - businesses, jobs and incomes need to be protected as far as possible through a period of hibernation so the economy can return to “normal” as quickly as possible once the shutdown ends.
Hence government measures to support businesses, jobs and incomes via wage subsidies, payments to businesses, tax relief, rent relief etc. Such measures add to more than 4% of global GDP and are still rising.  In Australia, fiscal stimulus is now up to around 10.5% of GDP and in the US it’s around 7% with more on the way.
However, monetary stimulus is also necessary to take pressure off indebted households and businesses and to ensure the flow of money and credit through the economy.
Initially some of the focus was on rate cuts, but rates were already low or around zero, and so increasingly we are seeing quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. But surely this is unnatural – money doesn’t just grow on trees? Some fret this can only lead to hyperinflation.
This note looks at what QE is and how it entails printing money, why it's being used and what the risks are.
Summary of recent moves by major central banks?
 But first here is a quick summary of recent major monetary policy easing measures since February
The Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate by 1.5% to a range of zero-0.25%, announced unlimited buying of Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities and announced a total of $US2.3trn in lending facilities that leverages up $US454bn in risk capital (which will take losses if needed) provided by the US Government. The latter will be used to lend to small and medium enterprises (through banks) and to state and local governments and for the purchase of investment grade and some high yield bonds, collateralised loan obligations and commercial mortgage backed securities. 
The European Central Bank has reinstated quantitative easing totalling €870bn by year end with flexibility over the assets it can buy which will aid countries like Greece and Italy and expanded its low-cost bank funding program. • The Bank of England cut rates by 0.65% to 0.1% &amp; started a new £200bn bond buying program with more bank funding. 
The RBA has cut the cash rate by 0.5% to 0.25%, set a target for the 3 year bond yield of 0.25% to be supported by buying Government bonds and announced low cost funding for banks (called a Term Funding Facility) amounting to at least $90bn at just 0.25% interest for three years. These all involve quantitative easing and hence money printing.
What is quantitative easing?
Quantitative easing involves a central bank printing money and using that money to buy government and private sector securities or to lend directly or via banks to pump cash into the economy. So this covers the Fed’s bond buying program and its lending facilities and in Australia it covers the RBA’s buying of Australian Government bonds and its low-cost funding of banks.
It all shows up as an expansion in central banks’ balance sheets which shows their assets and liabilities.
The printed money or cash increases the “liability” side of the balance sheet and the increased holding of bonds, private securities, direct loans or funding of banks shows up on the “asset” side.
Rough estimates are that the moves announced over the last month or so will see the Fed’s balance sheet more than double to around $US11 trillion by year end or 50% of US GDP and the RBA’s balance sheet nearly double to around $340bn by year end or 17% of GDP. Of course, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet dwarfs that of the Fed, ECB and RBA reflecting its massive quantitative easing program since 2012.
So why do quantitative easing? Normally central banks implement monetary policy by changing interest rates. But when interest rates have already fallen to zero, in order to support the economy central banks have been turning to boosting the quantity of money in the economy. Hence quantitative easing.
 The current expansion in quantitative easing (and its adoption in Australia) reflects: 
A need to ensure that short term money markets continue to function – as lenders became reluctant to lend into money markets last month the Fed, RBA and other central banks injected short term funds into the markets. This should be temporary and will reverse as markets settle down. 
A desire to ensure that sound businesses continue to receive funding. This has seen the Fed adopt a range of lending programs and the ECB and RBA provide low cost funding for banks so they can continue to lend to their customers. 
A desire to ensure that the cost of funding remains low. A month ago Government bond yields started to rise (as fund managers were selling their liquid winning assets to meet redemptions), corporate borrowing rates surged as investors feared defaults and Europe was seeing a blow out in the gap between bond yields of fiscally weaker countries like Italy versus Germany.
So, the Fed has been pumping money into the US bond and credit markets to push yields back down. The ECB has done something similar in Europe by buying Italian bonds. And the RBA announced a target of 0.25% for the 3-year bond yield and started buying bonds to support that target.
Keeping bond yields down means lower fixed rate borrowing rates on business loans and mortgages. 
To the extent bond buying keeps bond yields down it makes it easier for governments to fund their rising budget deficits. 
Finally, a lesson from the 1930s is that it’s very important to stop the money supply from shrinking. The 1930s saw multiple bank failures which accentuated the economic depression as people lost their savings and as a result the money supply collapsed.
Printing money and expanding cash in the system helps make sure this does not occur. But isn’t this helicopter money? What about MMT? Not quite. As currently practiced central bank bond buying involves the central bank using printed money to buy already existing government bonds in the secondary market (eg from banks, super funds and foreign investors).
So, it’s not directly providing the money to the government and those bonds must (at least in theory) still be paid back when they mature. So, it’s not really “helicopter money” – which would see a central bank directly give money to the government to spend.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argues that if a country borrows in its own currency (which Australia does - so there is no risk of a currency crisis) and there is more risk of deflation than inflation then there is nothing wrong with using money printing to finance government spending which can be allocated in an equitable way.
I must admit I have some sympathy for this. The trouble is that politicians would be at risk of becoming addicted to the flow of central bank money resulting in wasteful government spending and pork barrelling and eventually hyperinflation.
So central banks &amp; governments are very wary of doing this. At least for now - as this resolve may fade the longer inflation remains very low. But of course, QE is aiding the government’s stimulus program by helping to keep bond yields down. And unlike in the period of quantitative easing seen in the US and Europe last decade which was accompanied by fiscal austerity, exploding budget deficits today provide a vehicle for quantitative easing to add to spending in the economy (once the shutdowns relax) so QE today is likely to be far more potent than it was last decade.
 How will central banks get their balance sheets down?
There is no magical right or wrong level for a central bank’s balance sheet - as can be seen in the chart above they vary as a share of GDP from country to country.
So, it’s not necessarily the case that central banks will need to shrink them (beyond the shrinkage that may occur when their lending and low cost bank funding programs end) – they could just remain at a permanently higher level with central banks just rolling their bond holdings over as bonds mature meaning effectively that governments may never need to pay a portion of their debt back. And in the process the interest governments pay on such debt could come back to them as a “dividend” payment from the central bank!
Won’t it just cause hyperinflation?
The biggest risk in this whole strategy is that the expansion of the money supply results in a surge in inflation. Early last decade when QE became popular there was much talk of hyperinflation and the US becoming the next Zimbabwe, but it didn’t because while narrow measures of money (cash and bank reserves) surged, broader money supply measures like credit growth remained subdued and at the same time spare capacity in the economy remained high.
The same will likely apply now in the short term – until economic activity recovers to more normal levels such that spare capacity is used up (with unemployment falling and factories operating at full capacity) and lending growth picks up substantially it’s hard to see inflation picking up. If anything, inflation looks likely to fall – just look at the plunge in oil and petrol prices, the slump in demand for discretionary retail products and all the talk of falling wages.
Once economic activity has recovered there is a bigger risk of inflation and central banks may have to reverse easy money. But that’s an issue for some time away. We still have to end the shutdowns, and all go back to work and spending first. What does it all mean for investors? There are several implications in all this for investors.
First, because the coronavirus shutdown has created such a big hit to economic activity which will take a while to fully recover from, low interest rates and easy monetary policy will likely be with us for a long time to come and once the growth outlook improves this is a positive for growth assets like shares.
Second, the country that expands its balance sheet and by implication its money supply the fastest seems likely to see a decline in its currency. Based on our balance sheet calculations the Fed looks to be leading the charge here – which could be negative for the US dollar. This may ultimately support commodity prices and the $A once the shutdowns end.
Third, ultimately ultra-easy money, huge budget deficits and public debt and an ongoing retreat from globalisation will add to the risk of an eventual pick-up in inflation which would be negative for bonds – but that’s still several years away.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

QE & money printing, what is their place in the COVID-19 economic rescue? Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>A quick look at today's arrivals and departures figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it's a bit like the famous old chart chronicling 1,001 days in the well-being of a Thanksgiving turkey.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Chinese short-term arrivals into Australia fell to a seasonally adjusted total of just 19,500 in February, to be down by about 90 per cent. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6i1Av1jlptY/XpaY17aaUAI/AAAAAAAA1O4/101Tn39UUQw_-P0YcoS3-TsyQN-nZEV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/China.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6i1Av1jlptY/XpaY17aaUAI/AAAAAAAA1O4/101Tn39UUQw_-P0YcoS3-TsyQN-nZEV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/China.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
Ouch.
<div>There were still some 72,500 international arrivals for the purposes of education in the month, but February is normally one of the two months of the year wherein far higher numbers are expected, as students are typically expected to return from their Xmas break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it was not so this year, as many international students were stuck in China or elsewhere. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZeXFrYQDY6A/Xpa-UDHYKVI/AAAAAAAA1Pg/LSoyrsL_PFcFBq3Dzi4CLb_i2Tv4c9AtgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1388"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Australia has long seen its economy juiced by relatively high intake resulting from net overseas migration, international students, and tourism from China and other parts of Asia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date, there's been less impact showing up in the figures for permanent and long-term movements.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were still some 97,840 permanent and long term arrivals in the month, and only 32,930 long-term departures, although the next intake is often higher than this in sunny February. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mkdk1MBywwg/Xpa9GHqK5aI/AAAAAAAA1PY/qxn4apeYbIkrv_iGpZS-z2yuVw52bMJBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1395"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures will naturally slow through the remainder of Q1 and Q2, however. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while the economy might see a staged re-entry to business trading, things can't really 'return to normal' until the borders can be opened again, which must obviously take time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Out of interest, the IMF is forecasting a very strong rebound for Australia's economy in 2021 - faster than the US, UK, Germany, Canada, or France - though how they actually arrived at these figure is anyone's guess. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lG7XeYPpXJc/XpbmleYO-jI/AAAAAAAA1QA/xc0cVVG5gXsrOWZmtShtXxNqO8HIOs9rACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/IMF.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Source: Joiner, IFM Investors</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A sceptic might justifiably ask how their 2020 forecasts are tracking so far...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Listings down</div>
There's not been too much sign of forced selling in the housing market just yet, with new listings all but cut in half.
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Fzr9yrwd84U/Xpa3PsmxG2I/AAAAAAAA1PQ/sX72dYuvdc40IQ0nLSSBnI2KrKNTjKzsQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/EVmOH_7UMAErMCP.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="828"></div>
Source: My Housing Market
Resi construction is also forecast to all but dry up this year, with annual dwelling commencements tipped to dip below 100,000 over the coming quarters (UBS), which would the lowest rate of new supply since 'at least 1960' (h/t Scutty).
In fact, we're still seeing plenty of competition for the limited amount of new stock in blue chip areas, and even some examples of prices going above price guides.
It's extremely doubtful that's the case in outer suburban areas or regional hubs, though, as rising unemployment and underemployment begin to bite
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

International arrivals at multiyear lows: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There's not been too much sign of forced selling in the housing market just yet, with new listings all but cut in half.
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Fzr9yrwd84U/Xpa3PsmxG2I/AAAAAAAA1PQ/sX72dYuvdc40IQ0nLSSBnI2KrKNTjKzsQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/EVmOH_7UMAErMCP.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="828"></div>
Source: My Housing Market
<div> </div>
Resi construction is also forecast to all but dry up this year, with annual dwelling commencements tipped to dip below 100,000 over the coming quarters (UBS), which would the lowest rate of new supply since 'at least 1960' (h/t Scutty).
In fact, we're still seeing plenty of competition for the limited amount of new stock in blue chip areas, and even some examples of prices going above price guides.
It's extremely doubtful that's the case in outer suburban areas or regional hubs, though, as rising unemployment and underemployment begin to bite
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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New listings nearly cut in half: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national residential vacancy rate was stable at 2 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents a slight decline from a year earlier, when the vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only Melbourne and Hobart had higher vacancy rates than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that properties need to be advertised for 3 weeks before being classified as vacant, there's more likely to be a jump in April as Airbnb operators and other short-term accommodation providers are forced to try more conventional routes for leasing their properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 6-month moving average by capital city is plotted below, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zJdu7a0K0QU/XpT_eswSm-I/AAAAAAAA1Og/-dMPxJ-RFect1lCV6nMdBke9TtLGEwfkwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1414"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more short-term units hitting the market the median asking rental price was down in March.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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Residential vacancy rates down to 2 percent: Pete Wargent

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There was little change in the March unemployment figures today released by the ABS, with only a small early impact from COVID-19 on the labour market early in the month.
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said the major COVID-19 related actions will be evident in the April data.
“Given the expected unseasonal change in key labour market indicators in the current COVID-19 context, the ABS will increase the focus on seasonally adjusted over trend data estimates for April and subsequent months,” Hockman said.
There will be additional products to assist the ABS in measuring the labour market impacts of COVID-19.
From March 1 to March 14, before the shutdown, employment increased by 16,800, with full-time employment up 8,800. Part-time employment also rose by 8,000.
Unemployment increased by 3,500.
Westpac's Bill Evans tips the June quarter unemployment rate to hit 11 per cent.
The RBA want to get the unemployment rate down to 4.5 per cent before they consider hiking interest rates.
AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver says April will see a big deterioration, with unemployment rising towards 10 per cent by June.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Unemployment rate steady at 5.2% as eyes shift to April data for COVID-19 impact

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There has been an overall decline in job ad volume, down -33.9% year on year to March 2020, according to the latest SEEK Employment Report.   The industries contributing most significantly to the overall decline in job ads are Trades &amp; Services, Information &amp; Communication Technology and Hospitality &amp; Tourism.   SEEK also acknowledges the rapid decline of the labour market throughout March. In the last month, national job ads declined significantly week on week compared to the same week last year. Since the beginning of March, national job ads have declined by;  
<ul>
<li>12.6% in week ended 8 March.</li>
<li>17.3% in week ended 15 March.</li>
<li>41.3% in week ended 22 March.</li>
<li>64.6% in week ended 29 March.</li>
</ul>
Kendra Banks, Managing Director, SEEK ANZ commented, "the coronavirus pandemic has caused widespread disruption to the labour market and SEEK is seeing a range of industries respond in very different ways.   "Hospitality and Tourism was one of the first sectors to be impacted by the pandemic. Job ads declined week on week throughout March, starting at -13%, then -26%, then -69.2% and by the final week of March, down -84.1%. SEEK saw employers and business owners looking for roles within the sector, such as bar staff, housekeeping, guest services, tour guides, airline staff and travel agents, cease or stall their plans completely, which is a direct result of the restrictions imposed by authorities such as international borders closing and social isolation measures."   "However, while still in decline, the Community Services &amp; Development and Healthcare &amp; Medical sectors are showing some pockets of activity, as governments and service providers aim to meet community demand. Roles in aged care and disability support, and child welfare, youth and family services have remained steady as have nurses practicing general medical and surgical, as well as critical care and ICU" "We know that employers are either scaling up or winding back their recruitment needs at a rapid pace, and there are far greater applications per job ad than what we typically see across almost all sectors."   "Our advice for jobseekers is to keep your SEEK profile up to date and follow the application process. Employers have been inundated with applications so standing out and being competitive by tailoring your resume to the job ad, being clear about your skills and experience which directly align to the job you’re applying for throughout the recruitment process is vitally important."   "As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, we continue to watch the movements in the labour market very closely to understand how each sector is responding with regards to hiring intentions and business activity”. Figure 1: National SEEK Job Ad growth by state (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/c2d86dac-3b7f-4c44-9bc7-2f5a5baa45ea.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
Figure 2: National SEEK Job Ad growth by industry (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/f49d5868-7efe-46a4-a29e-55b79fad83d4.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
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Job advertisements down 34% in COVID-19 pandemic: SEEK

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports. 
Every quarter I write The Price Predictor Index, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.
In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.
The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. 
Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.
Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city. 
The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia. 
Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.
The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends. 
Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline. 
Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.
The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity. 
It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas. 
In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA). 
And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices. 
In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.
Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney. 
Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.
I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
No Australian government has ever spent A$130 billion so quickly.
Last Tuesday, when the Prime Minister announced the government would subsidise six million jobs for six months to the tune of $1,500 a fortnight, the nation’s economists were left speechless.
Today, the government unveiled <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/labor-to-support-jobkeeper-package-despite-ineligibility-of-1m-casuals">the legislation</a> to be considered by the parliament tomorrow.
In ordinary times, there wouldn’t be a lot of support for a $130 billion wage subsidy. But these aren’t ordinary times.
Whole sectors of the economy have shut down, either directly as part of the health response to the pandemic, or indirectly as part of a wave of knock-on effects.
The JobKeeper wage subsidies will give <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">direct support</a> to the worst-affected businesses and jobs, helping to keep the economic damage to a minimum. The package isn’t perfect. But it’s a far better response than had been feared.
It will help keep the Australian economy afloat over the next six months, putting it in a position to bounce back when health officials deem it safe to reopen parts of the economy for business.
It has three key features:
<ul>
<li>
businesses get $1,500 per fortnight per worker (only for those workers who were employed on March 1. Short-term casuals with the business and some visa holders are excluded)
</li>
<li>
the employer has to keep those workers on the books and pay them at least $1,500 per fortnight
</li>
<li>
it only applies to businesses whose revenue has collapsed by at least 30% (15% for charities and not-for-profits, 50% for the largest businesses, with banks excluded).
</li>
</ul>
To be effective, it has to deliver on three goals:
<ul>
<li>
to support workers’ incomes through the crisis
</li>
<li>
to keep workers attached to firms, preserving as many job-specific skills and as much know-how as possible
</li>
<li>
to prevent wide-scale business failures which could turn a short and sharp recession into a long and painful depression.
</li>
</ul>
Importantly, this means if it’s working well, both workers and employers will get something out of the deal.
At firms that would otherwise have shut down, workers will benefit considerably.
Many workers will get paid more
The $1,500 payment will give them much more than the Newstart payment they would have received if laid off, even the doubled Newstart (now called JobSeeker) which for six months has been paired with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353">Coronavirus supplement</a> lifting it from $565.70 to $1,115.60 per fortnight.
And for the one third of workers otherwise earning less than $1,500 per fortnight, the JobKeeper payment will be a pay rise. If the subsidy keeps their firm afloat, they’ll keep their job and be paid even more than before for the next six months.
It’s possible those earning more than $1,500 per fortnight will earn less than they did before in pay and benefits, depending on what the government does with the Fair Work Act.
 
Exactly how it works out for workers who get JobKeeper will depend on the labour market. On one hand, they will be more attractive to employers because their employment comes with a big subsidy that new hires don’t bring with them. On the other hand, they might have few alternative employers to turn to. Jobs might be hard to find.
They’ll get to keep their jobs
Regardless, even if their pay is reduced, their situation will be much better than under the renamed Newstart. And to the extent that cutting their pay helps to keep the firm viable, it will secure a job for them on the other side.
Employers will also benefit. If a business stays open, it will get the benefit of its workers’ labour for free or at a big discount. It might look like corporate welfare, but it’s a feature, not a bug.
A key objective of the scheme is to plug the hole in firms’ revenues to prevent them going under. Most would have been viable if it weren’t for the necessary public health measures governments have taken. Allowing them to fail would mean a pointless destruction of valuable resources.
The wage subsidy is somewhat crude and inevitably there will be some waste. Some firms will be given more money than they need, some workers will be given more, some less.
It was never going to be perfect
Given more time, the treasury could have designed something better targeted, less wasteful. It didn’t have it. The economy has never experienced so sudden a collapse.
But there are a few simple things the government could do to make it better.
It could include short-term casuals and visa holders, and it should take care not to weaken the Fair Work Act.
JobKeeper won’t prevent a serious contraction in the Australian economy, but it should give us a very good chance to bounce back on the other side.
<hr>
We would like to thank Jeff Borland for his comments on a draft version of this article.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135195/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect-135195">original article</a>.
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