<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a>’s 640 Bourke Street stands as a testament to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3000">Melbourne</a>’s ability to bridge its storied past with a bold vision for the future.&nbsp;

Rising above the heritage-listed Eliza Tinsley building, the development reflects a broader shift toward adaptive reuse in the city, where historical assets are retained and reinterpreted as part of new residential development.

Designed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> incorporates the Eliza Tinsley building as its foundation, housing a grand gallery and lobby space that serve as both a functional and symbolic centrepiece. The heritage façade informs the tower’s design, creating a connection between Melbourne’s past and its contemporary skyline.

"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365684]

Above this historic base, the 68-storey tower will deliver just over 600 residences, a notable reduction from earlier schemes, reflecting a deliberate move toward larger-format apartments and a stronger owner-occupier focus.

Unlike traditional CBD developments that prioritised investor stock, 640 Bourke Street has been repositioned to respond to changing buyer expectations.

"The discussion was all around making 640 Bourke Street the best residence to live in, to be much more focused on the people in the building rather than people looking at the building," Marsland explained.&nbsp;

This shift is evident in the development’s interiors, which emphasise practical luxury with spacious layouts, high ceilings, and floor-to-ceiling windows framing sweeping views of Melbourne and Port Phillip Bay.&nbsp;

“What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Lauren Sheldon, Far East Consortium’s Director of Sales and Marketing, said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365687]

Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang added, "We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."&nbsp;

Amenities spanning more than 3,000 sqm across multiple levels further reinforce this focus on resident experience. These include a pool, gym, co-working areas, and a range of hospitality-inspired spaces such as a whisky lounge, library, and private dining rooms, many drawing reference from traditional bathhouses and Melbourne’s laneway culture.

"We wanted to make both the pool and the gym area to be absolutely destinational, and when you traverse across to these spaces, there is a gentle familiarity to the beautiful notions of the hammams and the Roman baths, a gentle nod to history," Chang noted.

At street level, the project contributes to the ongoing transformation of the western CBD, with upgrades to Langs Lane and the introduction of retail, hospitality, and gallery spaces designed to activate the precinct and strengthen its connection to the surrounding city fabric.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]

The location places residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market, and the Docklands waterfront, positioning the development within a rapidly evolving inner-city neighbourhood.

"We believe it's the best site left in the city of Melbourne," Craig Williams, Executive Director at Far East Consortium, said.&nbsp;

640 Bourke Street is Far East Consortium’s 14th building in Melbourne’s western CBD.

"A very elegant designed building. It's going to be a Melbourne statement for many, many years to come."

One-bedroom apartments are priced from around $640,000, with 640 Bourke Street targeting completion in 2029.

Renders shown are Artist's Impressions correct as of May 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]

Joel Robinson

Heritage-led design anchors Far East Consortium’s 640 Bourke St, Melbourne

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.

The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.

The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.

Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.

“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.

“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]

The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.

Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.

When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.

“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.

“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]

Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.

Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.

“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”

Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]

The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.

Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.

“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”

The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer BIG Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG Studio to craft the interiors for The Frederick, BIG Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG Studio's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for BIG Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of BIG Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Studio, with landscape design by LDG Landscape Architecture.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its unique detailing and compelling design,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. BIG Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Sydney’s YSG Studio makes Gold Coast multi-residential debut with BIG Projects at The Frederick

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Last week the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) sent an <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/capital-management">extraordinary letter</a> to Australia’s banks and insurers, essentially telling them to cut their dividend payments to shareholders in light of the coronavirus crisis.
It said it expected banks and insurers to “seriously consider deferring decisions on the appropriate level of dividends”.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326728/original/file-20200409-188923-1pxiqkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326728/original/file-20200409-188923-1pxiqkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Read the full <a class="source" href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank">APRA letter to financial institutions, April 7, 2020</a>.
Where a board was confident that it could approve a dividend on the basis of robust stress testing that had been discussed with APRA, it should “nevertheless be at a materially reduced level”.
Where dividends were paid those payments should be “offset to the extent possible through the use of dividend reinvestment plans and other capital management initiatives”.
With Australia’s big four banks potentially suffering big losses due to mortgage defaults among other things, their capital bases are at risk.
Equity research analysts at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/08/world/asia/08reuters-health-coronavirus-australia-banks">Macquarie</a> outline a scenario under which bank losses reach A$25-27 billion per bank, and their capacity to pay dividends (without raising equity) materially diminishes
Why did APRA do it?
The letter isn’t a “ban” on dividends, and APRA wasn’t telling the banks anything they don’t already know. So why did it bother?
The answer lies in the economics of how investors react to firms that don’t pay the dividends expected.
Seen through that lens, APRA was very clever indeed.
In a classic 1985 paper <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02362.x">Merton Miller and Kevin Rock</a> provided a theoretical answer to the puzzle of why paying dividends seems to signal good news to investors, and why cutting dividends seems to signal bad news, and cuts the share price.
In the Miller-Rock model, the managers of a firm have better information about its future prospects than outside investors.
To keep it simple, imagine there are two “types” of firms: good and bad.
Good firms have high future cashflows, bad ones have low ones.
Only the managers know which is which.
Because both types of firm can earn something from investing in the business, it is in the interest of both (more so the good firm) to invest rather than pay out dividends.
Miller and Rock wondered whether what each type of firm did provided clues to investors about whether the managers thought it was good or bad.
Surprisingly, they found that usually good firms will pay high dividend and bad firms no dividends.
It is surprising because good firms are sacrificing more by paying dividends.
Their logic was that the bad firms were the least able to afford good dividends and that good firms knew this and paid high dividends to signal they could afford to.
It has a striking implication with <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w4244">strong empirical support</a>.
If a firm gets a temporary negative shock to its cashflow or investment prospects it won’t want to cut its dividend lest investors think it has turned “bad”.
It will borrow or even do short-term damage to its prospects in order to maintain investor confidence and hence a high stock price.
Get out of jail free
Notice that the signalling theory of dividends implies that the managers of firms would like to cut dividends in tough financial times, and probably should, but they worry about sending a bad signal to investors.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328304/original/file-20200416-192698-pj1hzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
An announcement like APRA’s provides them with cover – an excuse.
And it does more. It is what economists refer to as a “coordination device”.
If the big four banks got together and agreed cut their dividends by the same amount, say in half (which would be illegal) investors would get no differential signal and no new information about which bank was “good” and which was “bad”.
APRA’s message opens up the possibility of all four coordinating without talking – merely by following advice.
As 2005 Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling put it in his book, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674840317&amp;content=reviews">The Strategy of Conflict</a>,
"People can often concert their intentions or expectations with others if each knows that the other is trying to do the same."
And they’ve an interest in coordinating. If one bank falls over during this crisis and needs to be bailed out that’s bad for all of them. All of their stock prices will tank, it will be hard for them to raise the capital they need to fund their operations.
Australia’s banks compete, but they are “frenemies”, right now more friends than enemies.
We will have to wait and see if they pick up the get-out-of-jail card APRA has handed them and cut dividends together.
APRA could have taken a tougher stance. It could have banned dividends. But that would have sent a bad signal to domestic and international capital markets about the solvency of our banks.
I have been critical of some of APRA’s moves in recent years. But this one is brilliant. Let’s hope the banks can see a life raft when they’re offered one.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136407/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-apras-extraordinary-gift-to-banks-under-pressure-to-pay-dividends-136407">original article</a>.
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APRA's extraordinary gift to banks under pressure to pay dividends

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Along with massive fiscal stimulus globally to deal with the impact of coronavirus shutdowns on the economy, the last month or so has also seen massive monetary easing – with the latest being the US Federal Reserve expanding its emergency lending program to $US2.3 trillion.
The economic shutdowns are necessary to slow the spread of coronavirus to take pressure off the medical system in order to minimise deaths. And because this will lead to a huge detraction in economic activity - we expect Australia and other developed countries to see a 10 to 15% fall in GDP centred on the current quarter - businesses, jobs and incomes need to be protected as far as possible through a period of hibernation so the economy can return to “normal” as quickly as possible once the shutdown ends.
Hence government measures to support businesses, jobs and incomes via wage subsidies, payments to businesses, tax relief, rent relief etc. Such measures add to more than 4% of global GDP and are still rising.  In Australia, fiscal stimulus is now up to around 10.5% of GDP and in the US it’s around 7% with more on the way.
However, monetary stimulus is also necessary to take pressure off indebted households and businesses and to ensure the flow of money and credit through the economy.
Initially some of the focus was on rate cuts, but rates were already low or around zero, and so increasingly we are seeing quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. But surely this is unnatural – money doesn’t just grow on trees? Some fret this can only lead to hyperinflation.
This note looks at what QE is and how it entails printing money, why it's being used and what the risks are.
Summary of recent moves by major central banks?
 But first here is a quick summary of recent major monetary policy easing measures since February
The Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate by 1.5% to a range of zero-0.25%, announced unlimited buying of Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities and announced a total of $US2.3trn in lending facilities that leverages up $US454bn in risk capital (which will take losses if needed) provided by the US Government. The latter will be used to lend to small and medium enterprises (through banks) and to state and local governments and for the purchase of investment grade and some high yield bonds, collateralised loan obligations and commercial mortgage backed securities. 
The European Central Bank has reinstated quantitative easing totalling €870bn by year end with flexibility over the assets it can buy which will aid countries like Greece and Italy and expanded its low-cost bank funding program. • The Bank of England cut rates by 0.65% to 0.1% &amp; started a new £200bn bond buying program with more bank funding. 
The RBA has cut the cash rate by 0.5% to 0.25%, set a target for the 3 year bond yield of 0.25% to be supported by buying Government bonds and announced low cost funding for banks (called a Term Funding Facility) amounting to at least $90bn at just 0.25% interest for three years. These all involve quantitative easing and hence money printing.
What is quantitative easing?
Quantitative easing involves a central bank printing money and using that money to buy government and private sector securities or to lend directly or via banks to pump cash into the economy. So this covers the Fed’s bond buying program and its lending facilities and in Australia it covers the RBA’s buying of Australian Government bonds and its low-cost funding of banks.
It all shows up as an expansion in central banks’ balance sheets which shows their assets and liabilities.
The printed money or cash increases the “liability” side of the balance sheet and the increased holding of bonds, private securities, direct loans or funding of banks shows up on the “asset” side.
Rough estimates are that the moves announced over the last month or so will see the Fed’s balance sheet more than double to around $US11 trillion by year end or 50% of US GDP and the RBA’s balance sheet nearly double to around $340bn by year end or 17% of GDP. Of course, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet dwarfs that of the Fed, ECB and RBA reflecting its massive quantitative easing program since 2012.
So why do quantitative easing? Normally central banks implement monetary policy by changing interest rates. But when interest rates have already fallen to zero, in order to support the economy central banks have been turning to boosting the quantity of money in the economy. Hence quantitative easing.
 The current expansion in quantitative easing (and its adoption in Australia) reflects: 
A need to ensure that short term money markets continue to function – as lenders became reluctant to lend into money markets last month the Fed, RBA and other central banks injected short term funds into the markets. This should be temporary and will reverse as markets settle down. 
A desire to ensure that sound businesses continue to receive funding. This has seen the Fed adopt a range of lending programs and the ECB and RBA provide low cost funding for banks so they can continue to lend to their customers. 
A desire to ensure that the cost of funding remains low. A month ago Government bond yields started to rise (as fund managers were selling their liquid winning assets to meet redemptions), corporate borrowing rates surged as investors feared defaults and Europe was seeing a blow out in the gap between bond yields of fiscally weaker countries like Italy versus Germany.
So, the Fed has been pumping money into the US bond and credit markets to push yields back down. The ECB has done something similar in Europe by buying Italian bonds. And the RBA announced a target of 0.25% for the 3-year bond yield and started buying bonds to support that target.
Keeping bond yields down means lower fixed rate borrowing rates on business loans and mortgages. 
To the extent bond buying keeps bond yields down it makes it easier for governments to fund their rising budget deficits. 
Finally, a lesson from the 1930s is that it’s very important to stop the money supply from shrinking. The 1930s saw multiple bank failures which accentuated the economic depression as people lost their savings and as a result the money supply collapsed.
Printing money and expanding cash in the system helps make sure this does not occur. But isn’t this helicopter money? What about MMT? Not quite. As currently practiced central bank bond buying involves the central bank using printed money to buy already existing government bonds in the secondary market (eg from banks, super funds and foreign investors).
So, it’s not directly providing the money to the government and those bonds must (at least in theory) still be paid back when they mature. So, it’s not really “helicopter money” – which would see a central bank directly give money to the government to spend.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argues that if a country borrows in its own currency (which Australia does - so there is no risk of a currency crisis) and there is more risk of deflation than inflation then there is nothing wrong with using money printing to finance government spending which can be allocated in an equitable way.
I must admit I have some sympathy for this. The trouble is that politicians would be at risk of becoming addicted to the flow of central bank money resulting in wasteful government spending and pork barrelling and eventually hyperinflation.
So central banks &amp; governments are very wary of doing this. At least for now - as this resolve may fade the longer inflation remains very low. But of course, QE is aiding the government’s stimulus program by helping to keep bond yields down. And unlike in the period of quantitative easing seen in the US and Europe last decade which was accompanied by fiscal austerity, exploding budget deficits today provide a vehicle for quantitative easing to add to spending in the economy (once the shutdowns relax) so QE today is likely to be far more potent than it was last decade.
 How will central banks get their balance sheets down?
There is no magical right or wrong level for a central bank’s balance sheet - as can be seen in the chart above they vary as a share of GDP from country to country.
So, it’s not necessarily the case that central banks will need to shrink them (beyond the shrinkage that may occur when their lending and low cost bank funding programs end) – they could just remain at a permanently higher level with central banks just rolling their bond holdings over as bonds mature meaning effectively that governments may never need to pay a portion of their debt back. And in the process the interest governments pay on such debt could come back to them as a “dividend” payment from the central bank!
Won’t it just cause hyperinflation?
The biggest risk in this whole strategy is that the expansion of the money supply results in a surge in inflation. Early last decade when QE became popular there was much talk of hyperinflation and the US becoming the next Zimbabwe, but it didn’t because while narrow measures of money (cash and bank reserves) surged, broader money supply measures like credit growth remained subdued and at the same time spare capacity in the economy remained high.
The same will likely apply now in the short term – until economic activity recovers to more normal levels such that spare capacity is used up (with unemployment falling and factories operating at full capacity) and lending growth picks up substantially it’s hard to see inflation picking up. If anything, inflation looks likely to fall – just look at the plunge in oil and petrol prices, the slump in demand for discretionary retail products and all the talk of falling wages.
Once economic activity has recovered there is a bigger risk of inflation and central banks may have to reverse easy money. But that’s an issue for some time away. We still have to end the shutdowns, and all go back to work and spending first. What does it all mean for investors? There are several implications in all this for investors.
First, because the coronavirus shutdown has created such a big hit to economic activity which will take a while to fully recover from, low interest rates and easy monetary policy will likely be with us for a long time to come and once the growth outlook improves this is a positive for growth assets like shares.
Second, the country that expands its balance sheet and by implication its money supply the fastest seems likely to see a decline in its currency. Based on our balance sheet calculations the Fed looks to be leading the charge here – which could be negative for the US dollar. This may ultimately support commodity prices and the $A once the shutdowns end.
Third, ultimately ultra-easy money, huge budget deficits and public debt and an ongoing retreat from globalisation will add to the risk of an eventual pick-up in inflation which would be negative for bonds – but that’s still several years away.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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QE & money printing, what is their place in the COVID-19 economic rescue? Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>A quick look at today's arrivals and departures figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it's a bit like the famous old chart chronicling 1,001 days in the well-being of a Thanksgiving turkey.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Chinese short-term arrivals into Australia fell to a seasonally adjusted total of just 19,500 in February, to be down by about 90 per cent. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6i1Av1jlptY/XpaY17aaUAI/AAAAAAAA1O4/101Tn39UUQw_-P0YcoS3-TsyQN-nZEV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/China.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6i1Av1jlptY/XpaY17aaUAI/AAAAAAAA1O4/101Tn39UUQw_-P0YcoS3-TsyQN-nZEV1wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/China.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
Ouch.
<div>There were still some 72,500 international arrivals for the purposes of education in the month, but February is normally one of the two months of the year wherein far higher numbers are expected, as students are typically expected to return from their Xmas break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it was not so this year, as many international students were stuck in China or elsewhere. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZeXFrYQDY6A/Xpa-UDHYKVI/AAAAAAAA1Pg/LSoyrsL_PFcFBq3Dzi4CLb_i2Tv4c9AtgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1388"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Australia has long seen its economy juiced by relatively high intake resulting from net overseas migration, international students, and tourism from China and other parts of Asia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date, there's been less impact showing up in the figures for permanent and long-term movements.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were still some 97,840 permanent and long term arrivals in the month, and only 32,930 long-term departures, although the next intake is often higher than this in sunny February. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mkdk1MBywwg/Xpa9GHqK5aI/AAAAAAAA1PY/qxn4apeYbIkrv_iGpZS-z2yuVw52bMJBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1395"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures will naturally slow through the remainder of Q1 and Q2, however. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while the economy might see a staged re-entry to business trading, things can't really 'return to normal' until the borders can be opened again, which must obviously take time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Out of interest, the IMF is forecasting a very strong rebound for Australia's economy in 2021 - faster than the US, UK, Germany, Canada, or France - though how they actually arrived at these figure is anyone's guess. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lG7XeYPpXJc/XpbmleYO-jI/AAAAAAAA1QA/xc0cVVG5gXsrOWZmtShtXxNqO8HIOs9rACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/IMF.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Source: Joiner, IFM Investors</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A sceptic might justifiably ask how their 2020 forecasts are tracking so far...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Listings down</div>
There's not been too much sign of forced selling in the housing market just yet, with new listings all but cut in half.
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Fzr9yrwd84U/Xpa3PsmxG2I/AAAAAAAA1PQ/sX72dYuvdc40IQ0nLSSBnI2KrKNTjKzsQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/EVmOH_7UMAErMCP.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="828"></div>
Source: My Housing Market
Resi construction is also forecast to all but dry up this year, with annual dwelling commencements tipped to dip below 100,000 over the coming quarters (UBS), which would the lowest rate of new supply since 'at least 1960' (h/t Scutty).
In fact, we're still seeing plenty of competition for the limited amount of new stock in blue chip areas, and even some examples of prices going above price guides.
It's extremely doubtful that's the case in outer suburban areas or regional hubs, though, as rising unemployment and underemployment begin to bite
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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International arrivals at multiyear lows: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There's not been too much sign of forced selling in the housing market just yet, with new listings all but cut in half.
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Fzr9yrwd84U/Xpa3PsmxG2I/AAAAAAAA1PQ/sX72dYuvdc40IQ0nLSSBnI2KrKNTjKzsQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/EVmOH_7UMAErMCP.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="828"></div>
Source: My Housing Market
<div> </div>
Resi construction is also forecast to all but dry up this year, with annual dwelling commencements tipped to dip below 100,000 over the coming quarters (UBS), which would the lowest rate of new supply since 'at least 1960' (h/t Scutty).
In fact, we're still seeing plenty of competition for the limited amount of new stock in blue chip areas, and even some examples of prices going above price guides.
It's extremely doubtful that's the case in outer suburban areas or regional hubs, though, as rising unemployment and underemployment begin to bite
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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New listings nearly cut in half: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national residential vacancy rate was stable at 2 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents a slight decline from a year earlier, when the vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only Melbourne and Hobart had higher vacancy rates than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that properties need to be advertised for 3 weeks before being classified as vacant, there's more likely to be a jump in April as Airbnb operators and other short-term accommodation providers are forced to try more conventional routes for leasing their properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 6-month moving average by capital city is plotted below, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zJdu7a0K0QU/XpT_eswSm-I/AAAAAAAA1Og/-dMPxJ-RFect1lCV6nMdBke9TtLGEwfkwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1414"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more short-term units hitting the market the median asking rental price was down in March.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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Residential vacancy rates down to 2 percent: Pete Wargent

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There was little change in the March unemployment figures today released by the ABS, with only a small early impact from COVID-19 on the labour market early in the month.
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said the major COVID-19 related actions will be evident in the April data.
“Given the expected unseasonal change in key labour market indicators in the current COVID-19 context, the ABS will increase the focus on seasonally adjusted over trend data estimates for April and subsequent months,” Hockman said.
There will be additional products to assist the ABS in measuring the labour market impacts of COVID-19.
From March 1 to March 14, before the shutdown, employment increased by 16,800, with full-time employment up 8,800. Part-time employment also rose by 8,000.
Unemployment increased by 3,500.
Westpac's Bill Evans tips the June quarter unemployment rate to hit 11 per cent.
The RBA want to get the unemployment rate down to 4.5 per cent before they consider hiking interest rates.
AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver says April will see a big deterioration, with unemployment rising towards 10 per cent by June.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Unemployment rate steady at 5.2% as eyes shift to April data for COVID-19 impact

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There has been an overall decline in job ad volume, down -33.9% year on year to March 2020, according to the latest SEEK Employment Report.   The industries contributing most significantly to the overall decline in job ads are Trades &amp; Services, Information &amp; Communication Technology and Hospitality &amp; Tourism.   SEEK also acknowledges the rapid decline of the labour market throughout March. In the last month, national job ads declined significantly week on week compared to the same week last year. Since the beginning of March, national job ads have declined by;  
<ul>
<li>12.6% in week ended 8 March.</li>
<li>17.3% in week ended 15 March.</li>
<li>41.3% in week ended 22 March.</li>
<li>64.6% in week ended 29 March.</li>
</ul>
Kendra Banks, Managing Director, SEEK ANZ commented, "the coronavirus pandemic has caused widespread disruption to the labour market and SEEK is seeing a range of industries respond in very different ways.   "Hospitality and Tourism was one of the first sectors to be impacted by the pandemic. Job ads declined week on week throughout March, starting at -13%, then -26%, then -69.2% and by the final week of March, down -84.1%. SEEK saw employers and business owners looking for roles within the sector, such as bar staff, housekeeping, guest services, tour guides, airline staff and travel agents, cease or stall their plans completely, which is a direct result of the restrictions imposed by authorities such as international borders closing and social isolation measures."   "However, while still in decline, the Community Services &amp; Development and Healthcare &amp; Medical sectors are showing some pockets of activity, as governments and service providers aim to meet community demand. Roles in aged care and disability support, and child welfare, youth and family services have remained steady as have nurses practicing general medical and surgical, as well as critical care and ICU" "We know that employers are either scaling up or winding back their recruitment needs at a rapid pace, and there are far greater applications per job ad than what we typically see across almost all sectors."   "Our advice for jobseekers is to keep your SEEK profile up to date and follow the application process. Employers have been inundated with applications so standing out and being competitive by tailoring your resume to the job ad, being clear about your skills and experience which directly align to the job you’re applying for throughout the recruitment process is vitally important."   "As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, we continue to watch the movements in the labour market very closely to understand how each sector is responding with regards to hiring intentions and business activity”. Figure 1: National SEEK Job Ad growth by state (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/c2d86dac-3b7f-4c44-9bc7-2f5a5baa45ea.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
Figure 2: National SEEK Job Ad growth by industry (March 2020 vs March 2019)
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/3e29690342dff21ae5a0e2255/images/f49d5868-7efe-46a4-a29e-55b79fad83d4.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
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Job advertisements down 34% in COVID-19 pandemic: SEEK

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports. 
Every quarter I write The Price Predictor Index, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.
In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.
The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. 
Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.
Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city. 
The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia. 
Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.
The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends. 
Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline. 
Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.
The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity. 
It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas. 
In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA). 
And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices. 
In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.
Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney. 
Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.
I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
No Australian government has ever spent A$130 billion so quickly.
Last Tuesday, when the Prime Minister announced the government would subsidise six million jobs for six months to the tune of $1,500 a fortnight, the nation’s economists were left speechless.
Today, the government unveiled <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/labor-to-support-jobkeeper-package-despite-ineligibility-of-1m-casuals">the legislation</a> to be considered by the parliament tomorrow.
In ordinary times, there wouldn’t be a lot of support for a $130 billion wage subsidy. But these aren’t ordinary times.
Whole sectors of the economy have shut down, either directly as part of the health response to the pandemic, or indirectly as part of a wave of knock-on effects.
The JobKeeper wage subsidies will give <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">direct support</a> to the worst-affected businesses and jobs, helping to keep the economic damage to a minimum. The package isn’t perfect. But it’s a far better response than had been feared.
It will help keep the Australian economy afloat over the next six months, putting it in a position to bounce back when health officials deem it safe to reopen parts of the economy for business.
It has three key features:
<ul>
<li>
businesses get $1,500 per fortnight per worker (only for those workers who were employed on March 1. Short-term casuals with the business and some visa holders are excluded)
</li>
<li>
the employer has to keep those workers on the books and pay them at least $1,500 per fortnight
</li>
<li>
it only applies to businesses whose revenue has collapsed by at least 30% (15% for charities and not-for-profits, 50% for the largest businesses, with banks excluded).
</li>
</ul>
To be effective, it has to deliver on three goals:
<ul>
<li>
to support workers’ incomes through the crisis
</li>
<li>
to keep workers attached to firms, preserving as many job-specific skills and as much know-how as possible
</li>
<li>
to prevent wide-scale business failures which could turn a short and sharp recession into a long and painful depression.
</li>
</ul>
Importantly, this means if it’s working well, both workers and employers will get something out of the deal.
At firms that would otherwise have shut down, workers will benefit considerably.
Many workers will get paid more
The $1,500 payment will give them much more than the Newstart payment they would have received if laid off, even the doubled Newstart (now called JobSeeker) which for six months has been paired with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353">Coronavirus supplement</a> lifting it from $565.70 to $1,115.60 per fortnight.
And for the one third of workers otherwise earning less than $1,500 per fortnight, the JobKeeper payment will be a pay rise. If the subsidy keeps their firm afloat, they’ll keep their job and be paid even more than before for the next six months.
It’s possible those earning more than $1,500 per fortnight will earn less than they did before in pay and benefits, depending on what the government does with the Fair Work Act.
 
Exactly how it works out for workers who get JobKeeper will depend on the labour market. On one hand, they will be more attractive to employers because their employment comes with a big subsidy that new hires don’t bring with them. On the other hand, they might have few alternative employers to turn to. Jobs might be hard to find.
They’ll get to keep their jobs
Regardless, even if their pay is reduced, their situation will be much better than under the renamed Newstart. And to the extent that cutting their pay helps to keep the firm viable, it will secure a job for them on the other side.
Employers will also benefit. If a business stays open, it will get the benefit of its workers’ labour for free or at a big discount. It might look like corporate welfare, but it’s a feature, not a bug.
A key objective of the scheme is to plug the hole in firms’ revenues to prevent them going under. Most would have been viable if it weren’t for the necessary public health measures governments have taken. Allowing them to fail would mean a pointless destruction of valuable resources.
The wage subsidy is somewhat crude and inevitably there will be some waste. Some firms will be given more money than they need, some workers will be given more, some less.
It was never going to be perfect
Given more time, the treasury could have designed something better targeted, less wasteful. It didn’t have it. The economy has never experienced so sudden a collapse.
But there are a few simple things the government could do to make it better.
It could include short-term casuals and visa holders, and it should take care not to weaken the Fair Work Act.
JobKeeper won’t prevent a serious contraction in the Australian economy, but it should give us a very good chance to bounce back on the other side.
<hr>
We would like to thank Jeff Borland for his comments on a draft version of this article.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135195/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect-135195">original article</a>.
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