Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
Melbourne real estate agencies — JRW Property Investments and Barry Plant Glenroy — have been found to be underquoting by a Victorian taskforce, after the new laws on such practice came into force on May 1. 
JRW Property Investments and Barry Plant Glenroy acknowledged they violated consumer and property laws relating to house sales after investigations by Consumer Affairs Victoria, its website said in a release.
Taskforce Vesta, which conducted the investigations, was formed in 2015 to address concerns about agents misleading prospective buyers about the likely selling price of a property.
The final two active investigations concluded with Consumer Affairs Victoria accepting enforceable undertakings from JRW Property Investments Pty Ltd (ACN: 122 029 725) and Superior Realty Pty Ltd – trading as Barry Plant Glenroy (ACN: 098 225 248).
JRW Property Investments and Barry Plant Glenroy will contribute $75,000 and $45,000, respectively, to the Victorian Consumer Law Fund, for misleading and deceptive price advertising, including underquoting.
Both companies have also agreed to implement a compliance programme and display a public notice at their respective company offices.
The taskforce inspected the offices of 34 selling agents, and examined 1,400 sales files, leading to 14 major investigations, Consumer Affairs Victoria said.
The changes to the Estate Agents Act 1980 requires estate agents or agents' representatives selling residential property to set an estimated selling price that is reasonable and takes into account the prices of the three most comparable property sales in the area.
The agents must “consider the standard, condition and location of the property and the date of sale, when selecting the most comparable property sales” says a note on the Consumer Affairs Victoria website.
They are also required to inform the seller and update the sales authority if the estimated selling price changes.
The underquoting investigations have led to the commencement of six cases in the courts and tribunals, and the acceptance of six enforceable undertakings.
The penalties for underquoting can be more than $31,000 and loss of sales commission.
The new laws will only apply to properties for which the seller signs a sales authority on or after May 1.
JRW Property International advertised a Glen Waverley property for $800,000 despite the estimated selling range being $950,000 to $1.045 million, reported the Herald Sun. 
The agency also told prospective buyers in Wheelers Hill a property was expected to sell for about $1.1 million despite the vendor asking for a reserve price of $1.5 million.
Barry Plant Glenroy’s breaches included a Meadows Heights property advertised at $450,000-plus despite the vendor nominating a reserve price of $500,000.
Also, a Broadmeadows property advertised at $300,000-plus despite the vendor not being prepared to sell beneath $340,000.
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Two Melbourne real estate agencies face the music for underquoting 

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Westpac Group, the nation's second largest mortgage lender, has told mortgage brokers to grill clients on why they want an interest-only loan.
They are to "make them aware of their features and considerations".
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<div>Brokers must note the client's answers and include them in the application.</div>
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"It is important clients can provide clear reasoning for their choice of loan and can demonstrate an understanding of an interest-only loan and its features so we can have confidence our product aligns to their needs," a bank spokesman told Fairfax Media.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Westpac tells mortgage brokers to quiz investors on IO rationale

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. The rise in commodity prices over the past year has boosted Australia's national income.
Headline inflation rates, having moved higher over the past year, have declined recently in response to lower oil prices. Wage growth remains subdued in most countries, as does core inflation. Further increases in US interest rates are expected and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility has been low.
As expected, GDP growth slowed in the March quarter, partly reflecting temporary factors. The Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment. At the same time, consumption growth remains subdued, reflecting slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt.
Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. Employment growth has been stronger over recent months. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains low, however, and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In some other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness. Lenders have also announced increases in mortgage rates for investor and interest-only loans.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
To go to the RBA website <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-13" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Easing and declining property prices noted: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's July 2017 statement

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The RBA cash rate decision came out today with the rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
The bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting.
It noted rising prices were easing and that some markets had declining prices.
Laing+Simmons Managing Director Leanne Pilkington said the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold was the right one.
"A steady interest rate environment will continue to be crucial as the country – and mortgage holders – navigate various economic and political uncertainties.
“In the past week we’ve read reports that rates could move higher sooner rather than later, and that compounding rises over a relatively short period may materialise. This could jeopardise the safe landing that the Treasurer has prioritised,” Ms Pilkington says.
“Our forecast remains that there will be no further reduction to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in 2017,” said HIA principal economist, Tim Reardon. 
“Comments issued by the Reserve Bank Governor today highlight that housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others. 
“These patchy outcomes are consistent with the easing of conditions in the housing market. 
“The pressures on the RBA to respond to developments in the housing market have eased as the major mortgage lenders moved to increase interest rates on a number of riskier mortgage lending products. 
“Furthermore, the latest dwelling price figures showing that the market for established properties in the east coast capital cities may be cooling is likely to provide additional comfort," he said.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said it came as no surprise that the RBA has held the cash rate at 1.5 percent for its tenth consecutive meeting today.
"The decision comes on the back of upbeat labour market reports, with unemployment falling to 5.5 percent since the last meeting and a trend towards more job advertisements," he said.  
"While the jobs market appears to be strengthening, other factors remain subdued, with wages growth tracking along record lows at just 1.9 percent per annum and core inflation below the target range of 2-3 percent.
"Furthermore, a steady cash rate from the RBA against increasingly hawkish sentiments in Europe and the US stand to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar. This would serve as a welcome boost to Australian exports.
"Importantly, the housing market is showing signs of slowing, with CoreLogic’s home value indices reporting a 0.8 percent rise in dwelling values over the June quarter; the lowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015. 
"A controlled slowdown in housing market conditions would provide some comfort to policy makers that new macroprudential constraints are working to cool the high rate of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne. 
"While the cash rate has remained on hold, the same can’t be said for mortgage rates, which have been edging higher since September last year. 
"Arguably, higher mortgage rates have done much of the heavy lifting in slowing down home value appreciation and cooling investment demand.  
"There is an expectation that mortgage rates will continue to rise, despite a steady cash rate setting, as lenders adjust their credit policies to accommodate the latest round of APRA mandates. 
"If this is the case, we expect investment activity will continue to moderate across the housing market, which could dampen housing market conditions further. 
"Slower housing market conditions and improvements in employment markets are certainly positive outcomes, however if wages growth and inflation remain subdued we can expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the short term."
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RBA holds again in July 

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Record high household debt is expected to be on top of the Reserve Bank’s board meeting’s agenda on Tuesday as the central bank worries about risks to the economy from a shock in the property market.
Though most experts concur that the first rate hikes won’t come soon, but the RBA will be faced with question on Tuesday on whether or not to follow other central banks in lifting the official cash rate.
Australian household debt in the March quarter was at 190 per cent of their yearly disposable income, an all-time high, RBA data showed. The record debt level is even higher than the US just before the financial crisis.
High household debt is know to frequently be a trigger for financial crises.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe had earlier noted that a combination of high household debt and slow wages growth was a sobering combination. (put PO link)
A combination of low interest rates, slow wages growth and surge in home prices fuelled by overseas investor demand and strong population growth have been cited as reasons.
Data from the RBA confirmed that Australia’s record household debt mountain is largely due to soaring property prices.
In the March quarter, Australian housing debt reached 135 per cent of annual disposable income, according to the RBA, breaking another record.
RBA minutes in March noted that there was a build-up of risks associated with the housing market.
However, Treasurer Scott Morrison said recently that regulatory tightening is working to cool the overheated property market without a hard landing.
"The data shows to date that we are moving towards a safe landing when it comes to housing markets in Sydney and the pendulum swinging back in the favour of home owners and first home buyers, which is good news," Morrison said in Sydney on Monday, according to The Australian Financial Review.
In March, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced restrictions on interest-only loans in response to record high household debt levels and the measure was has been "fully supported by the government”, he said.
Interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans, APRA said.
 
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Record high household debt worries RBA ahead of board meeting

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Finder.com.au’s RBA cash rate survey shows all 34 experts and economists (100%) are expecting the central bank to leave the cash rate at 1.5% for July 2017.
The vast majority of <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank">experts and economists surveyed</a> (88%, 28) believe the next cash rate move will be in a positive direction.
Only four experts (13%) are expecting a rate cut. Predictions for when a rise may occur, however, are spread across the board.
Interestingly, eight rate hikes over two years, as recently predicted by ex-RBA board member John Edwards, looks unlikely according to the panellists. Only three respondents (Nicholas Gruen of Lateral Economics, Saul Eslake and Steven Milch of Suncorp Group) are predicting two or more rate rises in 2018.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says mortgage holders should brace for rate increases.
“It’s no secret that rates will start rising soon, it’s just a matter of when.
“To minimise rate shock, think about fixing a portion of your interest rate or even switching to a provider that offers more competitive interest,” he says.
With falling clearance rates in Sydney, panellists were asked if this was a sign that property prices may fall. In response, a third of respondents said prices will fall by 5% by the end of the year, a third said prices will not fall, and a further third said there may be some cooling, but no major changes.
“Low auction clearance rates may signal less demand which could see house prices dip, so we may see a cooling period in some capital city markets, but it won’t be dramatic,” he says.   According to Census data released this week, 22% of Sydney households are spending more than a third of their monthly income on rent. When asked if rent and mortgage stress were increasing in Australia’s capital cities, 58% of respondents agreed with this statement, saying those in Sydney and Melbourne most likely to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, 42% disagreed with this view.    When asked about the NSW Government’s plan to remove stamp duty for first time buyers on homes valued under $650,000 (with discounts for homes up to $800,000), a slight majority (53%, 9) thought this was a good policy, while the remaining 47% (8) did not.   While there’s been criticism of the $650,000 limit being too low, most of the panellists (9, 53%) believe it shouldn’t be any higher. Interestingly, two economists, (Savanth Sebastian of CommSec, and Nicholas Gruen of Lateral Economics) think the limit should be lifted to $1,000,000.   “The initiative to remove the duty concession for some purchases will give first homebuyers a reprieve, but with house prices in some capital cities nearing $1 million, the $650,000 cap may not be generous enough,” he says.   “Removing stamp duty for some purchases will remove a barrier of entry for first home buyers which could stimulate demand and push up property prices,” Mr Cooke says.   Here’s what our experts had to say:   Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA will have been fairly encouraged by the recent run of economic data, which will (temporarily in my view) give them confidence that they have the appropriate cash rate in place for now."   Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): "No material change in conditions from previous month. Prudential regulation is doing the 'heavy lifting' in relation to residential property market pricing. "   Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "While downside risks to the growth and inflation outlook have increased, the RBA remains upbeat that growth will pick up particularly after recent solid jobs data. It probably also remains wary as to whether the Sydney and Melbourne property markets have really started to cool or not."   Alison Booth, Australian National University (Hold): "Insufficient change to justify moving rates either up or down."   Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "Future potential risks of increased household leverage from lower rates still out-way any expected benefits to growth of another cut."   Dr Kishti Sen, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold): "I don't think the interest rates will fall further because of: 1. The Reserve Bank is keen to limit the amplitude of the residential cycle amid concerns about household debt and financial stability risks. Hence, it would not want to reignite the housing boom. 2. A lower cash rate will reduce the dollar but it will have little effect on investment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is on a tightening phase and rate rises in the United States will narrow the interest rate differential with Australia and put downward pressure on the A$. 3. The Reserve Bank is also concerned that the more they reduce rates now, the sooner they will have to raise interest rates. I therefore expect the cash rate to stay at 1.5% over calendar year 2017 and 2018."   Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold): "Inflation is low, but the RBA doesn't want to cut rates as it fears pumping up the already overheated residential property sector"   Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "The RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold at 1.50% at this meeting. And while the recent improvement in the labour market has quashed talk of further rate cuts, weak underlying inflation will prevent the RBA from hiking rates until 2019. "   Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Economy is not in need of any extra interest rate assistance" Savanth Sebastian, CommSec (Hold): "Reserve Bank looks comfortable on the interest rate sidelines. Policymakers will keep a close eye on the property market."   Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Better recent economic news supports clear recent steady bias by the Bank"   Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Data releases and other evidence since the last meeting will not have prompted any material change in the RBA's assessment of the economic outlook or the appropriate stance for monetary policy"   Mark Brimble, Griffith University  (Hold): " Bias remains to the downside with the economy struggling to generate momentum.  With banks (and apra) tightening credit the markets and sentiment are softening. Further support is required, but the rba is likely to not be willing to provide this as this stage"   Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Hold): "Underlying inflation is still below its 2-3% target."   Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "The slowdown in the housing  market is occurring via the adjustment to rates for investors and interest only loans. This enables the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 1.5% for the benefit of the broader economy."   Glen Hawke, Karis Communications (Hold): "The current economic data is inconclusive of a need for a shift."   Brendan Rynne, KPMG Economics (Hold): "Continuation of excess capacity in the labour market, and the maintenance of inflation below RBA target band."   Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "There appears to be a growing consensus among economists that the next rate move will be up, especially if some of the RBA’s forecasts around economic growth come to fruition. However, we believe that current economic, employment, political and household debt scenarios support a status quo in fiscal policy in the near term."   Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "Because they've not signalled anything else and I think they won't have the confidence to raise the rate, even if they'd like to."   Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "Little discernible change in the domestic economic environment over the past month."   John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA won’t cut rates because it remains concerned about fuelling further increases in house prices and household debt."   Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "Our property markets have slowed down over the last few months taking pressure of the RBA to raise interest rates. On the other hand the RBA can't afford to drop rates to bolster our bumbling economy and further fuel our property markets. So rates will remain on hold."   Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "While globally rate movements are beginning the long path back to normalisation in some key economies, the strong exchange rate and economic fragility locally point to holding rather than raising rates at this meeting."   Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "There is no urgent reason for the Reserve Bank of Australia to adjust the current cash rate setting. All of the latest economic data is looking fairly positive at the moment, providing the RBA with no incentive to adjust their long-standing plan of attack."   Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "Too early to see what is happening re the labour market v house prices."   Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "There is no risk in holding this July."   Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "The holding pattern will continue, despite a weak growth and inflation outlook, until the housing market is clearly in retreat. "   Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "There is no reason to lower – and no reason to raise."   Janu Chan, St.George Banking Group (Hold): "The RBA will be encouraged by the improvement in the labour market, but will still be of the view that there remains spare capacity in the economy. That would prevent any thought of raising rates. However, ongoing concerns regarding risks from the housing market and high household debt is preventing any cuts to rates. "   Steven Milch, Suncorp Group (Hold): "Labour market strengthening balances against sub target inflation.  Little case to ease yet too early to tighten."   Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "RBA has made it pretty clear that they'd be very reluctant to cut rates again, and their view probably hasn't changed over the month."
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Experts tip July RBA rates to hold

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at a record low of 1.5% since last August 2016, but tighter regulatory measures, especially around the investment market, have forced lenders to go for out of cycle rates and rein in investor lending, says a loan comparison website.
RBA’s recent bulletin noted that in the aftermath of the GFC, a focus on more financial resilience has meant that Australian banks have had to increase capital requirements by strengthening their capital position, primarily through an increase in common equity. 
This has impacted banks’ return on equity, encouraging them to tweak their lending activities, Canstar said.
Banks have also repriced their loans, mostly housing loans, in response to higher capital requirements and also to rein-in interest-only lending because of the risks from high household debt, which the RBA has stated on quite a few occasions this year. 
Canstar came out with a monthly summary of mortgage rates split according to interest-only and principal and interest only loans. 
It reported that the average rate for the basic variable interest-only loan was 4.46% and the product had seen six increases in the recent past and no cuts.
All the assumption in the following charts have been on a loan amount of $350,000 and a loan-to-value ratio of 80%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInterest1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInterest1.png" alt="">
The figures reveal the crackdown on interest-only loans for investment properties is even higher, with the average for the basic variate rate loan sitting at 4.87%, 41 basis points higher than only the interest-only loan on an owner occupied property. 
Recently, all the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/Westpac%20has%20increased%20interest%20only%20rates%20for%20variable%20home%20loans%20for%20owner%20occupiers%20and%20investors." target="_blank">major banks raised their rates</a> for interest-only loans.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInvestorInterest2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInvestorInterest2.png" alt=""> 
Meanwhile, banks and lenders have been more rewarding of principal-and-interest only loans, with the average as at July 3 being 4.26%, according to Canstar.
Also, there have been three rate cuts and five increases compared to none for the interest-only segment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanPrincipalInt3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanPrincipalInt3.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInvestPrinci4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/03/CanInvestPrinci4.png" alt="">
 
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Rising gap between interest-only and interest and principal home loans: Canstar

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ME Bank will decrease its principal-and-interest variable home loan offer by 10 basis points.
This reduction will be available to new owner-occupier borrowers who are applying for a loan in a member package valued at $150,000 or more and with an LVR at 80% or less.
All interest-only vairable and fixed home loan offers to new borrowers will increase by 40 basis points.
Both these changes are effective July 1.
In August ME will increase its reference rates on all existing variable interest-only loans by 40 basis points
The bank said the changes were being made to manage regulatory requirements on interest-only lending.
ME CEO Jamie McPhee, said the changes are necessary to ensure the Bank complies with macro-prudential measures introduced by APRA, while encouraging existing interest-only home loan borrowers to switch to principal-and-interest.
“Owner-occupier principle-and-interest home loan rates are at record lows.
"Now is a great time to pay down the principal on your home loan.
“ME does not apply a fee for switching from interest only to principal-and-interest.”
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

ME Bank moves home loan rates

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Research released by RateCity.com.au has questioned the effectiveness of hiking rates to deter certain buyers.
RateCity.com.au analysed of over 100 lenders two months after the latest APRA intervention and found the majority of banks are penalising investors and interest-only borrowers by as much as 0.56 percentage points.
RateCity.com.au money editor Sally Tindall said investors paying interest-only are being hit the hardest at an average rate of 4.88 percent while owner-occupiers doing the right thing by paying down their debt are being rewarded with an average rate of 4.31 percent.
"While promoting sound lending measures was fundamentally important, there were question marks over the effectiveness of hiking rates to deter certain buyers," she said.
“What we learnt from the 2014/15 APRA intervention is that while a rate rise spooked investors initially, they took less than six months to decide that paying extra was worth their while.
“The real test for investors will be whether they are willing to meet their bank’s demands for higher LVR’s if they want to pay interest-only.
“Owner-occupiers opting to pay interest-only are also being hit with slightly higher rates, however it pales in comparison to the bill they eventually have to pay as a result of not paying down their principal without the benefit of any tax concessions.
“The average mortgage holder with a $350,000 loan will pay $45,822 more to their bank if they opt for interest-only repayments for the first five years.
“That’s a pretty big deterrent right there."
The research showed that people with a deposit of just 5 percent were paying, on average, 0.18 percentage points more than people with a deposit of 30 percent.
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Interest only investors hit hardest by rate hikes

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The Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates eight times in the next two years, given the central bank’s inflation target, according to former board member John Edwards.
The RBA is possibly already considering a schedule of rate increases given its forecasts for inflation returning to target and economic growth rising to 3 percent against a stronger global backdrop, Bloomberg reported, referring to a column Edwards wrote on the website of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, where he is a non-resident fellow.
The central bank has held rates at a record low of 1.5 percent since last August.
At its June meeting, its Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent, with Governor Philip Lowe saying that conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country.
The long-term cash rate was about 3.5 percent -- below the 5.2 percent average over the past two decades -- and the RBA wants to start tightening in 2018 and reach its goal within two years, which would require four quarter-point increases each year, he said. 
“It seems to me that something like eight quarter percentage point tightenings over 2018 and 2019 are distinctly possible, if the RBA’s economic forecasts prove correct,” said Edwards, who was on the bank’s board until July 2016, Bloomberg reported.
“It’s possible the tightening could start earlier, or if not the tightening itself, at least the signaling which should precede it. We may be seeing a little of that now.”
Separately on the Money News show by Ross Greenwood on 2GB, Edwards, a former chief economist of HSBC, said the policy rate would not go higher than 3.5 percent because of the household debt.
When asked by Greenwood that some economies, like Canada and New Zealand, were pushed into recession by rate rises… and if a similar situation could arise in Australia, Edwards said that the RBA would proceed very cautiously. 
The first rate rises are likely not to come before February-March next year, opined Edwards and then increases every quarter.
Traditionally, the RBA changes rates in small increments and typically doesn’t commit itself to subsequent moves, making the market wary of predicting where the bank will be in a few years, Edwards said. 
In the current circumstances, he said we can reasonably assume:
<ul>
<li>the RBA considers its current rate to be exceptionally low </li>
<li>if the economy improves as it predicts, the next move will be up </li>
<li>if the economy was operating, as the RBA predicts, at 3 percent output growth and 2.5 percent inflation, it would think of a sustainable or natural policy rate of at least 3.5 percent </li>
<li>most importantly, it will want the policy rate increase to match the forecast improvement in Australia’s economic performance, so rising to at least 3.5 percent by the end of 2019</li>
</ul>
 He noted the risks of rate increases amid record high household debt, a fact even noted by RBA Governor Philip Lowe.
“The bigger the household debt, the more impact a quarter percentage point increase in the policy rate will have on household spending,” he said. 
“In the Australian case, it is certainly possible that high household home mortgage debt will crimp consumer spending if the policy rate returned to what was once considered a relatively low long-term rate.”
Still, Edwards noted that interest paid on Australian mortgages is much less than it was six years ago: while debt has increased, interest rates have fallen a lot. 
Payments are now 7 percent of disposable income compared with 9.5 percent in 2011, and 11 percent at the peak of the RBA tightening cycle before the 2008 financial crisis, he said.
He said tightening steps would be dictated by how the economy performs.
“If household spending weakness, if the long expected firming of non-mining business investment is further delayed, if the Australian dollar strengthens, if employment growth is persistently weak, then the trajectory of rate rises will be less steep and the pace less rapid.”
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