Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
The Minutes of the August Board meeting were a low key affair, as anticipated.
There has been plenty of communication from the RBA over the past two weeks including the August Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s appearance before the House of Representations Standing Committee on Economics.
In that context, today’s Minutes were unlikely to contain any major surprises.
On Friday, the Governor endorsed market pricing that the next move in rates is up when he said, “the current market pricing implies a greater probability of a rate rise than a rate reduction, I think they are reasonable assumptions and I don't want to dissuade them.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.37%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.37%20pm.jpg" alt="">
This view was backed up in today’s Minutes as the Board dropped their reference from the July Minutes around developments in the labour market continuing to warrant careful monitoring.
For the record, in the July Minutes it was stated that: “the outlook for growth and inflation meant that developments in the labour and housing markets continued to warrant careful monitoring.”
In the August Minutes that statement was tweaked to, “members regarded conditions in the housing market and household balance sheets as continuing to warrant careful monitoring”. This is a less dovish stance.
But we don’t think it materially changes the outlook for rates; it simply validates current market pricing.
The Board continues to sound relatively upbeat on recent developments in the global economy.
In particular, it was noted that, “economic conditions had strengthened over the prior year and the improvement had broadened beyond international trade.”
A gradual increase in global inflation is forecast despite wage growth and core inflation remaining “subdued” as labour market have tightened.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.46%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.46%20pm.jpg" alt="">
The Bank’s assessment of the domestic economy contained nothing new compared with the August SMP.
But on the outlook for inflation, the Board noted that some forthcoming ABS rejigging with the CPI weightings will lead to slightly lower reported inflation from Q4 2017.
This information was incorporated into the RBA’s latest inflation forecasts and doesn’t appear to have meaningfully impacted their numbers.
On housing, the Board suggested that, “conditions had eased since late 2016” in Sydney in Melbourne.
We are not as convinced as the Board.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.12.57%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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In our view there is very little evidence that conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have cooled. In fact, after a seasonal slump in prices in May, the annual growth rates of dwelling prices have accelerated in Australia’s two largest cities.
From a monetary policy perspective, today’s Minutes were never going to be the most important event on the domestic economic this week.
Updates on wages {Wage Price Index (16/8) and Average Weekly Earnings (17/8)} and employment (17/8) are more significant.
There has been some genuine strength in the monthly employment reports over the past four months which means there has been a gradual tightening in the labour market.
But it remains to be seen if it will generate any lift in wages growth.
As a result, the data to come over the next 48 hours is particularly important.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-15%20at%201.13.06%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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From our vantage point, we think that we are still some way from labour market slack being eroded sufficiently to put genuine upward pressure on wages.
As a result, we see policy on hold until deep into 2018.
Gareth Aird is a senior economist at the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au" target="_blank">Commonwealth Bank</a>.
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Cash rate to stay steady this year and into next: CBA's Gareth Aird

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Some innovative mortgage data: RBA assistant governor 

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The Reserve Bank Governor’s commentary was similar to the Monetary Policy Statement released a fortnight ago.
However his comments today provided more clarity and reinforced our view that interest rates are likely to remain on hold over the next 12 months.
Interestingly the question and answer time highlighted the pragmatic approach the central bank takes in discussing an array of topical issues.
When prompted by parliamentarians about the discussion in the recent Reserve Bank Board meeting on the neutral cash rate, the Governor highlighted that markets will always react to what is said, but the decision to discuss the neutral cash rate setting at the July Board meeting was made earlier this year.
And the message that the Governor wanted to get across was that “it was a reasonable assumption that the next move in interest rates was up rather than down but it is some time away” and the neutral setting for the economy is lower than where it has been in the past.
The Governor made comments on business investment saying it was being held back by a range of uncertainties such as global politics and some domestic policy settings.
Given the strength in the business conditions, the central bank has “been looking for a strong pick-up in private business investment outside the resources sector. This is taking longer to occur than expected”.
And the RBA believes that this reluctance to commit to significant investment could possibly continue for some time yet.
No doubt the level of commitment by businesses to invest in the economy will be watched very closely by policymakers and be a key metric in the outlook for interest rates.
Interestingly, there was a lot of robust discussion on a variety of issues ranging from the mechanisms to control house prices, the growth of household debt, payments systems, Australia’s infrastructure spending, the benefits of a lower Australian dollar, even the cost of electricity prices, penalty rates and tax reform.
Certainly there is a lot that is occupying policymaker thoughts at present.
Overall the Reserve Bank Governor was more optimistic on the medium term outlook for the Australian economy.
Highlighting that even when it comes to mining investment the pullback is almost complete.
The focus now is to ensure an ongoing lift in non-mining business investment to support medium term growth objectives.
CommSec expects no change to interest rates over next year.
Below are the comments Philip Lowe made in regards to various topics.
On economic assessments, "There has been an improvement in survey-based measures of business conditions and capacity utilisation has increased.
“Employment growth has also picked up and retail spending has been a bit stronger of late. Financial conditions remain favourable, with interest rates remaining low and banks willing to lend”.
“In summary, our central scenario is for GDP to grow at an average of around 3 per cent over the next couple of years.
“This would be better than we have seen for some time.”
On business investments, “For some time we have been looking for a strong pick-up in private business investment outside the resources sector.
“This is taking longer to occur than expected.
“While we do see positive signs in parts of the economy, many firms still show some reluctance to commit to significant investment, often citing a range of uncertainties.
“It is possible that this reluctance will continue for a while yet.
“But it is also possible that the improvement in business conditions that we have seen will give firms the confidence to invest more, after a period of under-investment.
“We have incorporated a middle path into our own forecasts.”
On the household sector, “There is an adjustment going on, with many people getting used to lower growth in their real wages.
“Many now see this as more than just a temporary development, with wage increases of 2 point something per cent now the norm.
“In my view, the underlying drivers of the slower wage growth in Australia are much the same as we are seeing overseas.
“At the same time, the household sector is also dealing with higher levels of debt relative to income.
“Higher electricity prices are also affecting household budgets.
“This all means that consumer spending behaviour is something we continue to watch carefully.”
On economic transitions, “The transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is now almost complete.
“This means that falling levels of mining investment will not be a drag on the economy for much longer.
“Instead, with some large LNG projects reaching completion soon, GDP growth is expected to be boosted by a lift in LNG exports”.
On China, “In China, growth has surprised on the upside a little of late.
“The main challenge there continues to be containing the risks from the build-up of debt, while at the same time keeping growth on a steady path.
“This remains a work in progress.”
When asked about the outlook for wages Philip Lowe replied that he hopes to see the annual wage grow by 3.5% over time, inflation 2.5% and productivity 1%.
He also believes that we should be capable of achieving “3-point-something” annual wage growth.
On wage growth he said, “There is an adjustment going on, with many people getting used to lower growth in their real wages.”
“Signs wages are picking up for some construction and IT jobs due to stronger demand for workers”.
He also stated that it was up to the Government to improve structural things such as tax policy, competition policy and education reform.
On prudential housing measures he stated, “I think we have done enough for the time being.”
He reasonably assumed that the next move in interest rates is up, “but quite some time away,” however the average cash rate in the future will be lower than in the past due to lower real rate.
On the level of household debt Philip Lowe stated, “We are cognisant of the high level of household debt and take it into consideration when deciding on policy.”
In terms of inequality he believes that Australia is doing better than other countries and while the productivity is not growing fantastically, it is not doing bad either.
For prices he says that there are lots of prices in the consumer price index that are weak such as food and clothing.
Energy prices are affecting business investment; household budgets and will affect CPI.
He also commented about full time employment saying that an unemployment rate as somewhere around 5%, but he doesn’t see that happening in the next three years.
The latest comments from the Reserve Bank Governor support the view that interest rate settings will be stable for some time yet.
While Governor Lowe said that had a number of areas are being watched closely, from the strength in Chinese demand, to rising Australian dollar, investment and rising household debt.
There are no signs of imminent action on rates.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Next move in interest rate is "up": Savanth Sebastian

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One of the broker heads at National Australia Bank (NAB) said the lender broadly supports the securities regulator’s recommendations on broker commissions, but added that the commission model needs changes.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission had suggested that incentives not be structured to encourage larger loan sizes with larger offset balances.
“We don’t believe that the current standard commission model has resulted in poor consumer outcomes, but we believe it is essential to manage not only actual conflicts but also the potential for perceived conflicts of interest,” said Anthony Waldron, NAB executive general manager of broker partnerships.
“We believe the industry needs to make adjustments to the standard commission model by paying up-front commissions based on the drawn down amount, not the total facility amount, and by paying up-front commission net of offset balances.”
The lender submitted its response to Treasury on the ASIC proposals on June 30, which Waldron said recognised the positive effects that brokers had on the market, the Australian Broker reported.
Waldon said ASIC made many observations that acknowledged the important role played by brokers in promoting good consumer outcomes and strong competition in the home loan market and NAB supported the six ASIC proposals “in broad terms”.
On regulator’s suggestion to move away from bonus payments, NAB had never paid volume bonuses on mortgages, he added.
“The time for such payments has passed.”
Soft dollar benefits should also be managed transparently through the use of gift and conflict of interest registers, he said.
“We note however that the ongoing education and professional development of brokers is essential and we need to continue to focus on this, ensuring it’s conducted in line with community expectations.”
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Tweaks to mortgage broker commission needed: NAB executive

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Interest rates for investment lending continues to see an upward movement for both principal and interest and interest only mortgages, according to latest data from comparison website Canstar.
There was a 46 basis point difference between the average home loan rate with principal and interest. While the average basic variable rate for owner occupiers  was 4.27 percent, for investors it was 4.73 percent.
For the more popular standard variable rate, the difference was 44 basis points, the data revealed. While for owner-occupiers, the average standard variable rate was $4.48 percent, investors are being charged 4.92 percent on average, the data revealed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarOwnerOccupier.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarOwnerOccupier.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarInvestorPI.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarInvestorPI.png" alt=""> 
Both comparisons were on a loan size of $350,000 and a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent. The data was a snapshot of between 31 July and 4 August.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarOwnerInterestOnly.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarOwnerInterestOnly.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarInvestorInterestOnly.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/08/CanstarInvestorInterestOnly.png" alt="">
Banks have been increasing interest rates in response to higher capital requirements and also to rein-in interest-only lending because of the risks from high household debt.
They have also moved on investor loans after regulatory measures to rein in property prices, especially on the East Coast. 
  
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Mortgage rates for investors show rising trend: Canstar

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Home loan approval data for July shows  fixed rate home loans accounted for 29.63 percent of all loans written throughout the month according to Mortgage Choice.
This is its highest level in more than three years, say Mortgage Choice.
John Flavell, Mortgage Choice chief executive officer said this is the highest level of demand we have seen for fixed rate home loans since December 2013, when fixed rate home loans accounted for 33.06 percent of all loans written.
“The surge in popularity for this type of product does not come as much of a surprise when we look at what’s been taking place in the market in recent weeks," he said.
“A few of Australia’s lenders have lowered the interest rates charged on some of their fixed rate products, with some trimming up to 10 basis points from their four and five year rates.
"As a result, many of the fixed rate home loans now on offer are very competitively priced.
“Of course, this isn’t the only activity taking place in the market.
"In recent weeks, many of Australia’s lenders have introduced a raft of other policy and pricing changes.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/03/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
“Some lenders have significantly increased their interest only pricing across both their investment and owner-occupied products.
"These changes have helped make the mortgage market more complex than ever before.
“Subsequently, borrowers wanting certainty and security over their repayments for a set period of time are increasingly turning to a fixed rate mortgage.
"Fixed rate demand rose in every state throughout the month of July. 
"Western Australia had the highest proportion of borrowers opting for a fixed loan, with the product making up 35.77 percent of loans written throughout July.
"Not far behind was New South Wales, where fixed rate loans accounted for 33.59 percent of all loans written, and Queensland, where fixed rate loans accounted for 28.08 percent of all loans written.
"Overall, variable rate loans remained the most popular product for borrowers in Australia, particularly ongoing discount loans.
"It remained to be seen whether borrowers continued to flock towards the perceived safety of fixed rate home loans, or ride the changes in the market by selecting a variable rate product.
“Borrower demand for certain products will be dictated by what happens in the market.
“For example, if we continue see added complexity in the market - with lenders making changes to their pricing and policy - I would expect to see more borrowers opting for the security of a fixed rate loan.
"Borrowers and prospective buyers needed to remember that home loan rates are still hovering around historically low levels.
“Whether you’re looking to buy your first property, upgrade, refinance or even renovate, now it a great time to make your property goals a reality.”
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Fixed rate demand hits three year high

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. 
Of most interest in the Governor’s statement was going to be the commentary around the recently sharply appreciating Australian Dollar. Recall that since the last Board meeting the AUD has appreciated from USD 0.76 (TWI 65) to USD 0.80 (TWI 67.3). Markets were reasonably speculating that the Governor would attempt to “jawbone” the AUD with comments as potentially extreme as “a depreciation is necessary”. That language was used when the AUD was falling between USD 0.80 and USD 0.75  in 2015. 
At the very least there was an expectation that the terminology used by Deputy Governor Debelle in a recent talk: “a lower AUD would be helpful”, would be repeated.
In the event, the Governor took a more realistic approach. The experience of “jawboning” in recent years has been that unless the Bank is prepared to support that sentiment with lower rates, the market tended to ignore it. Consequently, the comment “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment” was excluded and it was simply stated that “an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast”.
That statement is supplemented by; “over the next couple of years, the central forecast is for the economy to grow at an annual rate of around 3 per cent”. That compares with the statement in May that “growth is expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 per cent”. Note that the Bank will release its revised growth and inflation forecasts on August 4 in its Statement on Monetary Policy. In the May forecasts, when the AUD was USD 0.74, growth in 2018 was forecast at 2 ¾ - 3 ¾ per cent, a mid-point of 3 ¼ per cent.
It now seems likely that this growth forecast will be lowered to 2 ½ - 3 ½ per cent.( mid- point of 3 %) That is still a quarter of a per cent above trend growth but does send a more tentative signal about the Bank’s confidence in the growth outlook.
Caution in the growth outlook is also signalled in other parts of the Governor’s statement with a more uncertain view around consumption “one source of uncertainty for the domestic economy is the outlook for consumption”.  That compared with the commentary in May of “growth in consumption is expected to remain moderate and broadly in line with incomes”. Further supporting a more cautious approach to the growth outlook is the decision to highlight the expected slowdown in residential construction – something that has not been discussed in recent statements.
The other area of considerable interest around the upcoming forecasts is whether as a result of the much higher exchange rate to be used in the forecasts (recall that at the time of the May forecasts the AUD was USD 0.74 and TWI 64), the forecast for underlying inflation which currently stands at 1 ½ - 2 ½ per cent (mid-point of 2 per cent, the bottom of the target zone) will be lowered. That would be a most unfortunate development from the perspective of the Bank’s credibility and is unlikely to happen despite the commentary around “the appreciating exchange rate”.
In previous Board minutes, it has been emphasised that the labour market and the housing market are the key areas of interest for the Bank. (With the recent appreciation of the currency, the AUD must be added to that list).
The commentary around the labour market is still somewhat cautious despite consistently strong employment numbers. That is because concerns around wages growth remain, with the damaging feedback loop from low wages growth to weak consumption and business investment being of paramount concern.
Despite some very recent reports that housing markets particularly in Melbourne may be heating up again, probably supported by generous state government subsidies to first home buyers, the Governor chooses to repeat the commentary in July that “there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease”.
On the international front, the Bank remains cautious around China. It accepts that growth has “picked up a little” but still highlights the high debt levels presenting medium term risks.
In that regard, the Governor has chanced his arm at forecasting commodity prices by noting “commodity prices have generally risen recently, although Australia’s terms of trade are still expected to decline over the period ahead”. He also sounds a note of confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates - “Federal Reserve expects to increase rates further”.
Those two points combined imply that the Bank is anticipating a lower Australian Dollar, however it has consistently maintained the methodology of assuming that the current level of the Australian Dollar will hold for the full forecast period, which will now be out to the end of 2019.
Conclusion
Despite the Governor stating “the Bank’s forecasts for the Australian economy are largely unchanged”, it appears clear to us that it will revise down its growth forecast for 2018 from 3 ¼ to 3 per cent in response to the rise in the AUD. That number is still well in excess of our own forecast of 2 ½ per cent. We have arrived at that number despite our underlying assumption that the AUD will fall to USD 0.65 by the end of 2018. If we were forced to use an AUD of USD 0.80, we would  see the need to further lower our growth forecast.
I am a little surprised that the Bank is likely to take this step given generally positive developments around the world economy, the labour market and business confidence since May. It would have been strategically tempting to maintain the 3 ¼ per cent forecast  despite the higher AUD and the accepted forecasted methodology.
This does emphasise how concerned the Bank is likely to have become with the recently stronger Australian Dollar.
Until now, we were clearly of the view that with the expectation that growth would reach 3 ¼ per cent in 2018, the Bank was expecting that rates would need to be increased some time in that year. Whilst aware of that, we maintained our view that rates would remain on hold in 2018 given that as 2018 developed,we expected that the Bank would accept that growth was likely to remain below trend precluding the need to raise rates.
We remain comfortable with our on hold call, and can only conclude from the Governor’s statement that the Bank is not as resigned to a rate hike in 2018 as may have been the case a month ago.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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RBA less inclined to raise rates as it resists temptation to “jawbone” AUD: Bill Evans

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<h4>Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision</h4>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve. Labour markets have tightened further and above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. Growth in the Chinese economy has picked up a little and is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices have generally risen recently, although Australia's terms of trade are still expected to decline over the period ahead.
Wage growth remains subdued in most countries, as does core inflation. Headline inflation rates have declined recently, largely reflecting the earlier decline in oil prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve expects to increase interest rates further and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility remains low.
The Bank's forecasts for the Australian economy are largely unchanged. Over the next couple of years, the central forecast is for the economy to grow at an annual rate of around 3 per cent. The transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is almost complete, with some large LNG projects now close to completion. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Some pick-up in non-mining business investment is expected. The current high level of residential construction is forecast to be maintained for some time, before gradually easing. One source of uncertainty for the domestic economy is the outlook for consumption. Retail sales have picked up recently, but slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in spending.
Employment growth has been stronger over recent months, and has increased in all states. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. The unemployment rate is expected to decline a little over the next couple of years. Against this, however, wage growth remains low and this is likely to continue for a while yet.
The recent inflation data were broadly as the Bank expected. Both CPI inflation and measures of underlying inflation are running at a little under 2 per cent. Inflation is expected to pick up gradually as the economy strengthens. Higher prices for electricity and tobacco are expected to boost CPI inflation. A factor working in the other direction is increased competition from new entrants in the retail industry.
The Australian dollar has appreciated recently, partly reflecting a lower US dollar. The higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In some other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases remain low in most cities. Investors in residential property are facing higher interest rates. There has also been some tightening of credit conditions following recent supervisory measures to address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness. Growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household incomes.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
To go to the RBA website <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-13" style="font-size: 12.16px;">click here</a>.
 
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Investors facing higher rates warns RBA Governor Philip Lowe's August 2017 statement

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The RBA held at the August 2017 meeting.
The central bank last moved on rates in August 2016, when it cut rates to 1.5 percent. Rates have stayed at the record low of 1.5 percent since.
Investors in residential property are facing higher interest rates, said the RBA.
It said there has also been some tightening of credit conditions following recent supervisory measures to address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness.
It warned that growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household incomes.
"Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease," the RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement.
"In some other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases remain low in most cities." 
REINSW President John Cunningham said the decision sees interest rates remain steady for the past 12 months after the RBA last cut interest rates in August 2016.  “While the RBA has not acted over the last year, there has been considerable activity from the banks," he said.
“The Sydney property market has settled down after a whirlwind period of growth but solid competition remains and will continue into the normally strong spring market. 
“Buyers must prepare themselves for several interest rate rises in the future, but the outlook remains positive,” Mr Cunningham said.  The RBA will next meet on September 5. 
Even though the RBA held rates, but the bottom of the market has already passed for fixed rate mortgages, according to RateCity.com.au.
RateCity research showed that fixed rates across the board bottomed out in November of last year.
RateCity money editor Sally Tindall said funding cost pressures and increased government regulation had taken their toll on the fixed rate market.
 
 
 
 
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Investors facing higher rates, as the RBA holds at August 2017 meeting - a full year without any movement up or down

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finder.com.au’s monthly cash rate survey shows all 35 economists and experts surveyed are forecasting the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate untouched today, on August 1.
Experts and economists were asked to shed light on the direction of the next rate move, and the majority (87%, 26) think the next rate movement will be in a positive direction. Only four experts (13%) are expecting a rate cut. 
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says a rate hike is in the pipeline.
“It looks as though April and May next year may be the most likely months a rate cut will be enforced.
“If the economy continues to stabilise, we can expect to see more rate rises throughout 2018,” he says. 
The panellists do not agree with the view of former RBA board member, John Edwards, that eight rake hikes over the next two years is “distinctly possible.” 
The majority surveyed on this topic (69%) expect three or fewer hikes over the next two years, while one in four (23%) expect four hikes. Just one economist, John Caelli from ME Bank, agrees with Mr Edwards that eight hikes may take place over the next two years. 
Panellists were asked to identify their greatest economic concerns for Australia right now, and the two highest ranked concerns were household debt and wage growth, cited by six experts each. 
“Wage growth is at record lows, currently sitting at about a quarter of inflation. Meanwhile, house prices continue to soar in the capitals and credit is cheaper than ever. This combination could be troublesome,” Mr Cooke says.
Since the Australian dollar hit a two-year high against the USD this month, it’s no surprise the high AUD was the third most cited concern, mentioned by three economists.  
“A high Aussie dollar could harm our exports as goods become more expensive for foreigners to buy,” Mr Cooke says.
Panellists were divided about the future of the AUD, with a slight majority (55%, 12) saying it peaked last week at 80 US cents. Just under half (45%, 10), however, said the dollar may reach 85 US cents by the end of this year.
“However, the strength of the local currency against the greenback is good news for travellers heading to the US as they'll find their dollar will go that little bit further.
“Anyone importing or buying goods from US sites, such as eBay or Amazon, will be get better value for money,” Mr Cooke says. 
Other concerns raised among panellists were the unemployment rate, the future of the Chinese economy, and a lack of entrepreneurial innovation in Australia.
Here’s what our experts had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA has made it clear it thinks that it has the appropriate monetary policy settings in place. None of the data that we've seen come out this month (on inflation, business confidence, employment etc) will have meaningfully impacted that view. As such, notwithstanding their renewed concern regarding the strength of the AUD, we think they will keep rates on hold when they meet next week."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): "Low wages growth means inflation is largely in check. High levels of household debt mean increasing rates is challenging."
John Hewson, ANU (Hold): “[Insufficient] info to move one way or the other."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "While growth was weaker than expected in the March quarter, recent data suggests its back on track reducing pressure to cut rates again but risks around the consumer, weak inflation and a rebound in the $A indicate its way too early to hike rates. So best to remain on hold."
Alison Booth , Australian National University (Hold): "Little change in the main indicators." 
Peter Munckton, Bank of Queensland (Hold): "Cash rate is at the right level."
Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst Ltd (Hold): "The RBA doesn't see the current cash rate as necessarily all that expansionary and remains concerned about the impact of rate rises on households with the very high gearing, stagnant wages and rising utilities prices."
Richard Robinson, BISoxford economics (Hold): "Although RBA would like to cut rates to take upward pressure off the Aus dollar, it can't cut rates as it fears re-stoking the residential property market. With inflation low and particularly wages growth very low, there is no need to raise rates for at least 2 years."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "The RBA does not want to cut interest rates for fear of boosting the housing market and debt levels, but equally the economy and inflation aren't strong enough to warrant interest rate hikes. 
Savanth Sebastian, Commonwealth Bank (Hold): "Inflation remains well contained. RBA would be concerned about the lift in the Aussie dollar. Focus will be on how economy tracks over the next few months."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): "The RBA would clearly prefer not to have to cut rates any further, but is also in no hurry to start raising them (even if central banks elsewhere in the world do). Economic data since the last board meeting (more good data on employment, business conditions, offset by another quarter of very low inflation, softness in household spending) don't present a strong case to move in either direction."
Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "The RBA is clearly determined to leave rates at current level taking a more medium-term view of the macroeconomy regardless of the current insipid intransigence of key economic performance indicators. 
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold): "No indication of likely move from recent commentary."
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Bias remains to the down side as the economy struggles to gain any traction.  The dampening impact of credit controls (while assisting with medium term risk around credit risk and elements of the property market) and retail interest rate rises by financial institutions have not helped.  Indeed the puzzling comments from the RBA that have related to a spike in the AUD also have a dampening impact.  Despite this, the RBA is unlikely to move rates for some time." 
Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Hold): "Inflation is still below the target band, so no immediate move in sight." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "Robust labour markets and a soft headline CPI outcome for Q2 (and 'core' measure being inline with the RBA's forecasts) underscores there is no economic rationale to move rates in either direction. Financial stability concerns seemingly prevent further easing. And a higher A$ deters premature hiking." 
Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "The RBA will be concerned about the rise in the AUD and will not be looking to add fuel to the fire." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "[The rate will hold because] Philip Lowe said so!"
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The RBA has indicated its intention to cautiously manage inflation to the preferred 2-3% range while at the same time appears reticent to reduce rates further. The weak inflation forecast in the June CPI figures point to a steady rate scenario for the short term. With employment levels also steady, this is good news for the property market on the whole.” 
Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "There has been little discernible change in economic indicators since last month’s RBA meeting." 
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "With the high dollar, low inflation and low wage growth there is no rush to put up rates just yet."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "The RBA can't raise rates as it would stifle our fragile economy and would lead to a higher AU$. Similarly, it can't lower rates as this would  fuel the Sydney and Melbourne property markets." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "Probably the strongest signal in history that the RBA will sit on its hands for the next couple of meetings, particularly given the latest inflation outcome." 
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia made it clear that its current monetary policy setting is appropriate for the time being and I believe this will continue to be the case at the August Board meeting.”
Chris Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "Interest rate settings remain appropriate. Economy performing a little below trend, inflation remains at the lower end of target, and the Aussie dollar is higher than the RBA would like. Holding rates at their current highly accommodative level is appropriate to allow the economy to continue to gain momentum as the unwind of the mining boom ends, the housing construction peak passes (but activity remains at a robust level for some time – i.e. no major drop) and, hopefully, other sectors pick up." 
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "Still too early, watching wages and the labour market.” 
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "I think we are at the bottom of the cycle but don't see any urgent need to raise rates."
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "While earlier in the month strong jobs growth figures suggested that the economy was on track, the strengthening Australian dollar put a dampener on the need for an increase. Inflation figures out today are likely to further cemented the RBA’s decision to take a wait and see approach with these figures continuing to be below the target of between 2 and 3%. Despite the RBA likely to hold, it is likely that banks will continue to increase the rates they charge home owners. This is partly because their costs of wholesale funding have increased but also because there is continued pressure from APRA to moderate their lending. The banking tax announced in the budget is also likely to be passed on to homeowners.”
Janu Chan, St.George Banking Group (Hold): "RBA will still have concerns about spare capacity and low inflation. However, risks of another rate cut have clearly dissipated." 
Brian Parker, SUNSUPER (Hold): "No signs in the data that they need to change their views of the world or their policy stance."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Hold): "Current settings are appropriate for employment and inflation settings."
Clement Allan Tisdell, The University of Queensland (Hold): "RBA statements and the increase in the value of the AUD [indicate no change]."
Other participants: Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold), Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold).
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