Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
All 30 panelists in the monthly Finder.com.au survey of the RBA rate decision suggested the central bank will hold at the November 2017 meeting.
There reasons are below:
Jordan​ ​Eliseo,​ ​ABC​ ​Bullion:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​a​ ​slowdown​ ​in​ ​retail​ ​sales​ ​growth over​ ​the​ ​last​ ​few​ ​months​ ​-​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​still​ ​appear​ ​confident​ ​in​ ​the​ ​outlook​ ​for​ ​the​ ​Australian economy,​ ​though​ ​their​ ​rhetoric​ ​around​ ​tightening​ ​policy​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​appropriately.​ ​We​ ​still see​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​as​ ​down,​ ​but​ ​it​ ​will​ ​not​ ​come​ ​until​ ​Q1​ ​2018​ ​at​ ​the​ ​earliest." 
Tim​ ​Nelson,​ ​AGL​ ​Energy:​ ​(Hold)​ "Little​ ​change​ ​in​ ​conditions." 
Shane​ ​Oliver,​ ​AMP​ ​Capital:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​expectations​ ​for​ ​stronger​ ​growth​ ​ahead,​ ​high​ ​levels of​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​growth​ ​all​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​cut.​ ​But​ ​a slowdown​ ​in​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​cycle,​ ​risks​ ​around​ ​consumer​ ​spending,​ ​weak​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​and inflation​ ​and​ ​the​ ​too​ ​high​ ​Australian​ ​dollar​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​hike.​ ​So​ ​the​ ​most​ ​likely outcome​ ​is​ ​rates​ ​remaining​ ​on​ ​hold​ ​-​ ​out​ ​to​ ​late​ ​2017​ ​at​ ​least." 
Paul​ ​Dales,​ ​Capital​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​and​ ​inflation​ ​are​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to warrant​ ​higher​ ​interest​ ​rates,​ ​but​ ​nor​ ​are​ ​they​ ​weak​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​justify​ ​lower​ ​interest​ ​rates.​ ​" 
Michael​ ​Blythe,​ ​CBA:​ ​(Hold)​ "Low​ ​inflation​ ​means​ ​[there​ ​is]​ ​no​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​act." 
Peter​ ​Gilmore,​ ​Gateway​ ​Credit​ ​Union:​ ​(Hold)​ "Looks​ ​like​ ​we​ ​are​ ​in​ ​an​ ​inflation​ ​trap." 
Scott​ ​Morgan,​ ​Greater​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "Domestic​ ​economic​ ​data​ ​is​ ​mixed​ ​and​ ​does​ ​not​ ​yet support​ ​a​ ​move." 
Mark​ ​Brimble,​ ​Griffith​ ​Uni:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economy​ ​is​ ​still​ ​struggling​ ​to​ ​gather​ ​any​ ​meaningful moment." 
Shane​ ​Garrett,​ ​Housing​ ​Industry​ ​Association:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"No​ ​need​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​rates​ ​at​ ​this​ ​time: economic​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​to​ ​have​ ​enough​ ​space​ ​to​ ​recover​ ​to​ ​its​ ​trend​ ​rate​ ​and​ ​inflationary pressures​ ​are​ ​weaker​ ​than​ ​expected." 
Paul​ ​Bloxham,​ ​HSBC:​ ​(Hold)​ "Inflation​ ​is​ ​still​ ​below​ ​target." 
Alex​ ​Joiner,​ ​IFM​ ​Investors:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economic​ ​signals​ ​are​ ​mixed,​ ​especially​ ​outside​ ​the​ ​labour market.​ ​Added​ ​to​ ​this​ ​inflationary​ ​pressures​ ​are​ ​subdued​ ​and​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​are​ ​anticipated​ ​to remain​ ​soft." 
Michael​ ​Witts,​ ​ING​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​comfortable​ ​with​ ​the​ ​current​ ​setting​ ​of​ ​rates​ ​and does​ ​not​ ​appear​ ​to​ ​be​ ​in​ ​a​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​change​ ​the​ ​policy​ ​settings.​ ​the​ ​low​ ​CPI​ ​print​ ​supports​ ​a further​ ​extension​ ​of​ ​stable​ ​rates." 
Leanne​ ​Pilkington,​ ​Laing+Simmons:​ ​(Hold)​ "Recent​ ​data​ ​pointing​ ​to​ ​flat​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​and subdued​ ​clearance​ ​rates​ ​reinforce​ ​the​ ​case​ ​for​ ​a​ ​hold​ ​decision.​ ​Of​ ​course,​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market is​ ​more​ ​complicated​ ​than​ ​this,​ ​with​ ​different​ ​suburban​ ​markets​ ​performing​ ​according​ ​to​ ​their own​ ​fundamentals." 
Matthew​ ​Tiller,​ ​LJ​ ​Hooker:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​numbers,​ ​inflation​ ​and​ ​wage growth​ ​remain​ ​soft.​ ​Property​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​moderated,​ ​relieving​ ​pressure​ ​on​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to shift​ ​rated." 
Stephen​ ​Koukoulas,​ ​Market​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​will​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​ignore​ ​weak​ ​inflation and​ ​wage​ ​results​ ​and​ ​instead​ ​create​ ​a​ ​perception​ ​of​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​financial​ ​stability.​ ​A​ ​rate cut​ ​is​ ​long​ ​overdue.” 
John​ ​Caelli,​ ​ME:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​has​ ​signalled​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​will​ ​be​ ​up." 
Michael​ ​Yardney,​ ​Metropole​ ​Property​ ​Strategists:​ ​(Hold)​ "Our​ ​housing​ ​markets​ ​have​ ​slowed down,​ ​so​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​need​ ​for​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​raise​ ​rates,​ ​and​ ​even​ ​though​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​below​ ​target and​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​flat,​ ​they​ ​dare​ ​not​ ​lower​ ​rates​ ​in​ ​fear​ ​of​ ​fuelling​ ​the​ ​property​ ​markets." 
Mark​ ​Crosby,​ ​Monash​ ​University:​ ​(Hold)​ "Pressures​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​have​ ​diminished​ ​to​ ​near zero,​ ​so​ ​the​ ​question​ ​now​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​timing​ ​of​ ​rate​ ​increases​ ​-​ ​which​ ​should​ ​hinge​ ​on international​ ​developments." 
Jessica​ ​Darnbrough,​ ​Mortgage​ ​Choice:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​domestic​ ​and​ ​international​ ​economies are​ ​starting​ ​to​ ​show​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​improvement,​ ​which​ ​could​ ​encourage​ ​the​ ​Reserve​ ​Bank​ ​to​ ​lift the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​some​ ​point​ ​over​ ​the​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​That​ ​said,​ ​for​ ​right​ ​now,​ ​inflation​ ​remains below​ ​target,​ ​which​ ​will​ ​no​ ​doubt​ ​lead​ ​the​ ​Board​ ​to​ ​leave​ ​the​ ​official​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​on​ ​hold.​ ​" 
Chris​ ​Schade,​ ​MyState​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​showing​ ​some​ ​promising​ ​signs, including​ ​the​ ​drag​ ​on​ ​growth​ ​from​ ​the​ ​unwinding​ ​of​ ​the​ ​mining​ ​investment​ ​boom​ ​being​ ​near its​ ​end,​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​conditions​ ​solid,​ ​strong​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​public​ ​infrastructure​ ​work, dwelling​ ​construction​ ​plateauing​ ​as​ ​opposed​ ​to​ ​declining,​ ​and​ ​quite​ ​high​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​job creation.​ ​There​ ​remain​ ​some​ ​weak​ ​spots​ ​however​ ​(e.g.​ ​wage​ ​growth,​ ​consumer​ ​confidence​ ​in their​ ​personal​ ​finances),​ ​and​ ​some​ ​areas​ ​of​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​that​ ​are​ ​in​ ​transition​ ​(e.g.​ ​housing market​ ​following​ ​numerous​ ​regulatory​ ​changes​ ​-​ ​albeit​ ​localised​ ​conditions​ ​vary​ ​widely). 
Overall,​ ​while​ ​it​ ​appears​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​right​ ​track,​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​likely​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​hold the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​1.5%​ ​and​ ​allow​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​some​ ​more​ ​time​ ​to​ ​develop.​ ​On​ ​current information,​ ​it​ ​would​ ​seem​ ​probable​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​hike​ ​in​ ​2018,​ ​most​ ​like​ ​the​ ​second​ ​half." 
Saul​ ​Eslake:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA's​ ​made​ ​it​ ​clear​ ​that​ ​it​ ​has​ ​no​ ​desire​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​further​ ​in​ ​the absence​ ​of​ ​any​ ​currently​ ​unforeseen​ ​negative​ ​shocks;​ ​while​ ​the​ ​data​ ​flow​ ​since​ ​the​ ​last meeting​ ​won't​ ​have​ ​done​ ​anything​ ​to​ ​prompt​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​bring​ ​forward​ ​any​ ​thoughts​ ​about tightening.​ ​In​ ​particular,​ ​the​ ​slightly​ ​lower-than-expected​ ​inflation​ ​outcomes​ ​for​ ​Q3​ ​have​ ​left 'underlying'​ ​inflation​ ​still​ ​below​ ​the​ ​RBA's​ ​target​ ​range." 
Jonathan​ ​Chancellor,​ ​Property​ ​Observer:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​recent​ ​decisions​ ​of​ ​central​ ​bank​ ​board and​ ​other​ ​regulatory​ ​authorities​ ​may​ ​have​ ​faded​ ​in​ ​time,​ ​but​ ​are​ ​still​ ​working​ ​their​ ​way through​ ​the​ ​economy,​ ​so​ ​no​ ​need​ ​just​ ​yet​ ​for​ ​any​ ​fresh​ ​adjustment." 
Matthew​ ​Peter,​ ​QIC:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​inflation​ ​pressure​ ​takes​ ​out-of-play​ ​any​ ​chance​ ​of rate​ ​hikes​ ​over​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​Rate​ ​cuts​ ​are​ ​off​ ​the​ ​table​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​slumps and​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​has​ ​showed​ ​sustains​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​cooling." 
Noel​ ​Whittaker,​ ​QUT:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"The​ ​housing​ ​boom​ ​is​ ​tapering​ ​off​ ​–​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​reason​ ​to​ ​raise rates​ ​to​ ​stifle​ ​demand." 
Nerida​ ​Conisbee,​ ​REA​ ​Group:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economy​ ​still​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​and housing​ ​too​ ​volatile​ ​to​ ​cut." 
Janu​ ​Chan,​ ​St.George​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"RBA​ ​is​ ​becoming​ ​increasingly​ ​optimistic​ ​in​ ​regards​ ​to the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​and​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​in​ ​non-mining​ ​investment.​ ​However,​ ​low​ ​inflation,​ ​slow wage​ ​growth,​ ​spare​ ​capacity​ ​still​ ​evident​ ​within​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​suggests​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​still​ ​a way​ ​from​ ​raising​ ​rates." 
Brian​ ​Parker,​ ​Sunsuper:​ ​(Hold)​ "Not​ ​enough​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​in​ ​the​ ​last​ ​month​ ​for​ ​them​ ​to change​ ​course​ ​at​ ​this​ ​point." 
John​ ​Hewson,​ ​UNSW:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economic​ ​signs​ ​point​ ​to​ ​the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​staying​ ​where​ ​it​ ​is​ ​for quite​ ​a​ ​while,​ ​perhaps​ ​even​ ​for​ ​the​ ​next​ ​twelve​ ​months​ ​or​ ​more." 
Clement​ ​Tisdell,​ ​UQ-School​ ​of​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"An​ ​increase​ ​may​ ​have​ ​a​ ​negative​ ​impact on​ ​economic​ ​sentiment​ ​at​ ​a​ ​time​ ​when​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​effects​ ​have​ ​to​ ​be​ ​carefully managed." 
Other​ ​participants: 
Bill​ ​Evans,​ ​Westpac:​ ​(Hold) 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA tipped to hold at 2017 Cup Day rate meeting

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The ANZ is reducing the headline rate on its Simplicity PLUS home loan for borrowers to 3.99 per cent by increasing the discount by 4 basis points to 56 basis points.
It applies to owner occupiers paying principal and interest only borrowing.
The Teachers Mutual Bank’s Classic Home Loan variable rate has been cut by 30 basis points to 3.84% for new business across its three key brands: Teachers Mutual Bank, UniBank, and Firefighters Mutual Bank.   Fixed rates across a number of home loan products have also been cut for all brands.    “We always seek to provide some of the most competitive rates on the market, and these new rates achieve that aim”, said Teachers Mutual Bank’s head of third party distribution, Mark Middleton.   These rate changes follow on from Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s recently announced annual results, which highlighted the brand’s strong home loan performance, with first and third party lending growing by a total of 20 percent in 2016-2017.</div>
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Macquarie is launching a mortgage and credit card package linked to the variable, principal and interest rate of 3.69 per cent.
The loan offer retains features offset account, a cut in the annual package fee from $398 to $248 and a credit card rate of 5.9 per cent.
Meanwhile the Canstar weekly interest rate summary is below - the number of movements this week in home loan rates has been relatively low. There have been a small number of decreases to owner occupier principal and interest loans while this week marks another consecutive week of little movement in investment loan rates.
Principal and interest only
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/1/HomeLoansPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/1/HomeLoansPI.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan2.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan2.jpg" alt=""></a>
 
Interest only 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan3.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/1/HomeLoan4.jpg" alt="">
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

All the latest home loan rate movements: Canstar

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Recent tightening of lending criteria in the banking sector has not only dramatically reduced financing options for companies, but has also created a perfect storm for what could be described as “predatory” lending practices by some second-tier credit providers.
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This year has seen the big four banks impose stricter lending criteria and companies seeking loans on prime secured assets, second mortgages or unsecured cash flow loans have been forced to turn to private equity style second-tier lenders. 
The largely unregulated and agile capital from second tier lenders is attracting borrowers simply as they have no other choice and from the outset borrowers are disadvantaged. 
This is particularly prevalent in commercial property transactions and development funding. Lenders can see in profitable deals there is available uplift and margin, making the value proposition of post transaction litigation a retrospective unappealing action where money has been made by the borrower. 
Second-tier lenders leverage the fact that funds can be advanced quickly with decision-makers assessing deals much more promptly than the big banks can. However, access to funds in the second-tier market can come with significant financial costs. 
Corporate borrowers can often be burdened by unexpected and significant fees when they discharge their obligations. The fine print in loan documentation can stipulate higher interest rates than what has been used in marketing materials. If there is a breach of the terms, the higher rate will apply and the discounted rate evaporates. 
Another “predator” technique is reliance on strict notice provisions to discharge loans. There are cases when notice is provided, but has not taken the form required under the terms, such as an email instead of a fax. Lenders will reject that effective notice has been given and continue the loan for an additional 
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period, or apply default interest based on defective notice if the loan extends beyond the original term. 
The biggest sting comes when borrowers seek to discharge a loan and settle the arrangement, as in the depths of the paperwork there is usually a “term fee” or “capital repayment fee“. On settlement on the loan, lenders claim a percentage of capital and this is typically an unexpected cost and a significant burden for the borrower. 
Lenders cite risk as the reason for these fees, state that the terms and conditions have disclosed all fees and also rely on a Lawyer’s Certificate to confirm that the terms have been explained to the borrower. 
Furthermore, if a lender considers that the borrower is a future litigation risk, they will demand a Deed of Release be signed to absolve the lender from any claims as a condition of settlement. This effectively strips the borrower of future rights and can leave them in a position where loans rack up exorbitant interest at super-charged interest rates in addition to hefty default fees without recourse. 
We desperately need to maintain quality lending practices and it is now up to the big four banks to develop funding solutions for corporate Australia and for regulatory bodies to open their eyes and look at ways to rein in second-tier lenders exploiting the market. 
Francis Farmakidis is a partner, at <a href="http://vobis.com.au/" target="_blank">Vobis Equity Attorneys</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Warning that predatory second tier lenders are circling property sector

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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-malbon-110917" target="_blank">Justin Malbon, Monash University</a>
The <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/110-2017/" target="_blank">federal government will be forcing banks</a> to hand over half their credit data ready for reporting by mid-2018 (with the remainder available in 2019).
It seems rather quaint in the age of big data that the big four banks have been able to hold onto their treasure troves of loan data for so long. This data reveals how reliable we are at repaying our loans. This information is gold to a lender.
For the government’s proposed legislation to work well, it would need to ensure effective regulatory systems are in place to protect our data and avoid more mortgage stress. To achieve this, lessons need to be learned from the US experience.
The new legislation on credit data promises to open up the consumer credit market to increased competition. This may in turn lead to cheaper loans.
Nimble competitors using new technologies could offer consumers innovative loan products at competitive interest rates. Non-traditional lenders could aggressively expand their market share at the expense of the banks. Consumers would seem to be the beneficiaries.
<h2>Lessons from the global financial crisis</h2>
Australia has long maintained one of the most restrictive <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=if2xjLv74HYC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA273&amp;dq=J+Barron+and+M+Staten+%E2%80%98The+Value+of+Comprehensive+Credit+Report:+Lessons+from+the+US+Experience%E2%80%99+in+Credit+Reporting+Systems+and+the+International+Economy+(MIT+Press,+Cambridge+Mass,+2003)+&amp;ots=uD2_nMsTmX&amp;sig=NcDHHieq7GRoeLAbY_lYdMrYmcI#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false" target="_blank">credit reporting systems amongst OECD countries</a>. Australia’s reporting system had only allowed credit reporting agencies such as Equifax and Dun and Bradstreet to report on consumers’ bad credit histories. These histories include things such as bankruptcies, and late loan and rental repayments.
The US system already has required reporting of the positive aspects of a consumer’s credit behaviour, including their timely loan repayments. This has enabled companies to develop statistical scoring models to estimate a consumer’s loan default risk with remarkable accuracy. Credit scoring became the cornerstone for underwriting <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=if2xjLv74HYC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA273&amp;dq=J+Barron+and+M+Staten+%E2%80%98The+Value+of+Comprehensive+Credit+Report:+Lessons+from+the+US+Experience%E2%80%99+in+Credit+Reporting+Systems+and+the+International+Economy+(MIT+Press,+Cambridge+Mass,+2003)+&amp;ots=uD2_nMsTmX&amp;sig=NcDHHieq7GRoeLAbY_lYdMrYmcI#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false" target="_blank">decisions for consumer loans</a>.
Unsurprisingly, this led to intense competition. With more accurate data, lenders no longer had to assume that low income consumers represented a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.
With customer loan histories being made available to competitors, low income consumers with a history of being reliable repayers were offered loans. As competition intensified, an ever-expanding <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/S0733-558X%282010%29000030A008" target="_blank">sub-prime loan mortgage market developed</a>. Shoddy loan practices became rife, setting the stage for the 2008 global financial crisis.
Australian households overall are <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017" target="_blank">already heavily in debt</a>. Intense competition resulting from the proposed new legislation risks pushing households deeper into debt. Low income consumers risk becoming more vulnerable to falling into debt traps.
Partly in response to the global financial crisis, Australia introduced responsible lending obligations on lenders, which are designed to stop loans to consumers who lack the capacity to repay them. However, the US subprime experience showed that lenders became adept at dodging the rules, and regulators <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-subprime-virus-9780195388824?cc=au&amp;lang=en&amp;" target="_blank">appeared to lack the will to enforce them</a>. The regulators will need to be particularly vigilant to avoid this occurring in Australia.
Compelling the big banks to release loan histories to third parties, such as credit reporting agencies, raises further risks that need to be closely attended to. Lenders will either create their own credit scoring models from the data provided by the banks, or rely on the scores produced by credit reporting agencies.
A bad or inaccurate score will have serious implications for a consumer. They may either be refused loans, or only be offered interest rates that are higher than if their score had been accurate.
There needs to be effective systems in place to ensure consumers have ready access to their score, and that they be able to challenge any inaccuracies. Informational transparency should apply for the benefit of both lenders and consumers.
Yet another risk is that our personal loan information will be stolen by criminals. Earlier this year, credit rating agency Equifax was subjected to a cyber attack affecting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/11/personal-details-of-almost-700000-britons-hacked-in-cyber-attack" target="_blank">over 143 million Americans and over 600,000 Brits</a>. Australia’s largest credit reporting agency, Equifax Pty Ltd, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Equifax Inc.
The data breach is subjecting US and UK consumers to increased risks of identity fraud and targeted scams. Requiring the banks to release our loan data to third parties increases the risk of data breaches.
Increased competition can offer considerable benefits for consumers. However, overheated competition risks damaging the interests of individual consumers, and the economy as a whole.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86757/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Consumers also face the increased likelihood of data breaches. The federal government and its regulatory agencies will need to be highly alert to these dangers, and ever vigilant.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-malbon-110917" target="_blank">Justin Malbon</a>, Professor of Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/forcing-the-banks-to-hand-over-our-credit-history-might-help-with-a-home-loan-but-it-has-risks-86757" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Forcing the banks to hand over our credit history might help with a home loan but it has risks

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Core Logic measures housing affordability in four different ways, the methodologies of which are detailed below:
<ul>
<li>The ratio of median dwelling prices to median gross annual household income. Utilising median household income data which has been modelled by the Australian National University Centre for Social Research and Methods (ANU) and median dwelling price data from CoreLogic we determine the ratio of dwelling prices to household income over time. For example, a dwelling price to income ratio of 5 implies that the typical household will spend five times their annual gross income to purchase the typical dwelling outright within the same region. 
</li>
<li>The number of years of gross annual household income required for a 20% deposit. Using the ANU’s modelled household income data we provide a measure of affordability for those households that don’t yet own a home. This analysis looks at how many years of a household’s annual gross income is required to pay a 20% deposit, based on the median priced dwelling. For example, a city where the median dwelling price is $600,000, a 20% deposit would equate to $120,000. If the median household income was $100,000, the deposit would comprise 1.2 years of the gross annual income for the household.  
</li>
<li>The proportion of household income required to service an 80% loan to valuation ratio (LVR) mortgage. This measure is based on mortgage serviceability and is more applicable for households that already servicing a mortgage. Assuming the owner has borrowed 80% of the median selling price (i.e. they had a 20% deposit) and are making their mortgage payments based on the discounted variable mortgage rate for owner occupiers (4.5% as at June 2017), we measure the proportion of annual household income required to service the mortgage. For example, for a region with a median dwelling price of $600,000, the typical loan amount based on an 80% LVR would be $480,000. Based on the current discounted variable mortgage rate and annual household income of $100,000, the household would be dedicating 32.0% of their gross annual household income to servicing the mortgage. 
</li>
<li>The proportion of gross annual household income required to pay the rent. Utilising household income data and the median weekly rent we measure what percentage of household income is required to service their rental payments. For example, a household with $100,000 annual gross income who is paying $600 per week in rent would be dedicating 31.2% of their annual gross household income to pay their rent.</li>
</ul>
The latest data to June 2017 indicates that, despite the cash rate remaining stable at record lows, housing affordability has generally worsened over the most recent quarter. The changes in affordability at a national level are detailed below: 
<ul>
<li>Dwelling price to household income ratio The national dwelling price to household income ratio was recorded at 6.8 in June 2017, with a higher ratio for houses (7.0) compared with units (6.3). The ratio increased over the quarter for houses and units however, 15 years ago the ratios were much lower at 4.5 for houses and 5.1 for units. The measure for houses is currently at an historic high while for units it has moderated slightly from a high of 6.5 in early 2015. 
</li>
<li>Years of household income required for a 20% deposit A 20% deposit was equivalent to 1.36 years of gross household income at the end of June 2017, with the figure recorded at 1.40 years for houses and 1.26 years for units. At the same time in 2002 it took 0.92 years to save a 20% deposit, 0.89 years for houses and 1.02 years for a unit. As the cost of housing has increased and household income growth has slowed it has become increasingly challenging for some segments of the market to raise a 20% deposit which has required a longer period of savings in order to enter the housing market. 
</li>
<li>Proportion of household income required to service an 80% LVR mortgage At the end of 2016-17 financial year it took 36.2% of the median gross annual household income to service a mortgage, with the proportion higher for detached houses (37.2%) and lower (33.7%) for units. Although mortgage rates have fallen over the past year, the ongoing increases in dwelling prices and low level of household income growth means serviceability has deteriorated. Despite the higher reading over the June quarter, mortgage serviceability is currently at similar levels to what was recorded in early 2004, highlighting how lower interest rates have made it easier for home owners to service and pay off their mortgage debt. 
</li>
<li>Proportion of gross annual household income required to rent a home Over the past 15 years there has been very little movement in the proportion of household income required for rent. This highlights that increases in rental costs are constrained by movement in household incomes. At the end of June 2017, 27.6% of the median gross annual household income was required to pay rent with the figures similar for houses (27.2%) and units (27.6%) across the country. The data also highlights that despite historic low interest rates, it generally remains cheaper to rent than to take out a mortgage in many areas.</li>
</ul>
For the purposes of this analysis we have just focussed on two metrics, the dwelling price to household income ratio and the proportion of household income required to service an 80% LVR mortgage.
Dwelling price to household income ratio
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-30-blog_img1.png" alt="2017-10-30--affordabilityblog_IMG1" width="570" height="344">
The above charts highlight how much of the deterioration in housing affordability, based on a dwelling price to household income ratio, is occurring in Sydney and Melbourne. Five years ago Sydney’s ratio was 6.7 times and Melbourne’s was 6.5 times, fast forward to June 2017 and the ratios sit at 9.1 times and 7.5 times respectively.
Over the past five years, median dwelling prices in Sydney have increased by 59.6% and Melbourne prices are 29.9% higher. Meanwhile, Sydney household incomes are 18.4% higher and Melbourne household incomes are up 13.2%.
Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, most other capital cities have actually seen very little change in affordability over the past five to ten years based on this metric. This highlights that while deteriorating housing affordability is viewed as a national problem, Sydney and Melbourne (where 40% of the population live) is very much the focal point.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-30-blog_img2.png" alt="2017-10-30--affordabilityblog_IMG2" width="570" height="343">
Proportion of household income required to service an 80% LVR mortgage 
This analysis takes into consideration mortgage rates and the impact of changes in them over time. Keep in mind that this analysis relates more to the cost of servicing a mortgage so is related more so to someone that already owns a property whereas the price to income ratio is more about the cost of entering the housing market.
This analysis highlights that not only is it more expensive to enter the market in Sydney and Melbourne but once you own a home the mortgage currently eats up a much larger chunk of household income than it does elsewhere.
Mortgage rates for owner occupiers are at historic lows however, someone buying under these conditions would still be spending 48.4% of their gross annual household income to service that debt in Sydney and 39.9% in Melbourne. Of course, these figures have been higher peaking at 54.4% in Sydney in March 2008 and at 49.1% in June 2008 in Melbourne.
Importantly, in March 2008 mortgage rates sat at 8.7% and in June 2008 they were 8.85% compared to rates of 4.5% in June 2017. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne the cost of servicing a mortgage is much lower but again, it is important to remember that mortgage rates for owner occupiers are at historic lows and likely to start moving higher at some stage, potentially in 2018 or 2019.
The data presented highlights that housing is expensive across the country and that over recent years housing affordability has deteriorated however, much of that deterioration has occurred in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of capital gains has far exceeded growth in household incomes.
The latest CoreLogic Home Value Index data shows that dwelling value growth is slowing however, moderate falls are unlikely to result in a significant improvement in housing affordability. As mentioned, despite mortgage rates for owner occupiers tracking at record lows, servicing a mortgages is taking-up a large proportion of household incomes in Sydney and Melbourne. 
Should mortgage rates start to rise without a commensurate rise in household incomes it will mean that households will have to spend an increasingly greater proportion of their household income to service their mortgage. If that was to occur it would likely impact on other areas of the economy, particularly with regards to areas of expenditure such as retail trade.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Mortgage rates for owner occupiers are at historic lows: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank of Australia could join the likes of Estonia and Lebanon in creating a cryptocurrency based on the Australian dollar, to reap the benefits of technology like the blockchain but with more stability than other well known currencies like Bitcoin.
The RBA has already been approached by interested startups to create this new digital currency, known as the “DAD” or Digital Australian Dollar.
In contrast with other cryptocurrencies a state-backed digital currency has the advantage of being backed by the government as in fiat currency, but at the same time has the technological advantages shared by other cryptocurrencies.
A digital Australian dollar could remove the role of middlemen and create a cheaper electronic currency system, while at the same time enabling the government to fully regulate the system.
It would also allow transactions to settle faster (several minutes to an hour) than the traditional banking system (several hours to several days), especially in a situation where an international payment is involved.
The difference between a digital Australian dollar and Bitcoin
We already use the Australian dollar in a digital form, for example paying via your smartphone. But banks are essential in this system, moving money on our behalf.
When using a cryptocurrency, you interact with a system like the blockchain, an online ledger that records transactions, directly. Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum are examples of cryptocurrency that use the blockchain in this way. These currencies are created by the community that use them and are accepted and trusted within the community.
However, since the community runs the system, the price of the cryptocurrency solely depends on the market mechanism. When the demand increases, the price increases, but when the demand decreases, the price also decreases. While it might create an opportunity for speculators to gain profit from trading, it also creates risk for the cryptocurrency holders.
In comparison to cryptocurrency, the digital Australian dollar might be well managed that the price volatility could be reduced significantly. The government holds the capability of increasing or decreasing the money supply in the system. This power can be used to stabilise the market supply of the new digital currency.
The blockchain technology also reduces the fee for every payment made. This is made possible by removing the role of banks or other intermediary parties charging fees for their services. However, a small transaction fee still needs to be introduced to protect the system from being flooded by adversaries with insignificant transactions.
The characteristics of cryptocurrency itself might limit its usage to daily transactions. As the pioneer of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin was created to become a payment system, but the users gain incentive by simply saving their cryptocurrency and not using them to purchase goods or services.
They believe the future price of the cryptocurrency is higher than the current price and thus does not make a good medium of exchange nor a store of value. There is no guarantee that the cryptocurrency will hold any value in the future. Since there is nothing to back up the value, users will lose their wealth when the community no longer acknowledges the value of cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency might also jeopardise the local government’s effort of implementing regulations to minimise illegal activities. Perpetrators create cryptocurrency transactions easily without being detected by the government’s financial monitoring system.
The privacy features of cryptocurrency also make it hard for law enforcement agencies to determine the actors behind illegal activities. Although most governments in the world have enforced the coin exchange services to identify their users, the operation of the cryptocurrency is beyond their reach.
There are other state-backed digital currencies
The idea of creating a national cryptocurrency is not new. Estonia has explored ways to create Estcoin, following an initiative on the blockchain-based residency registration called e-Residency. Lebanon’s central bank has also started to examine the possibility of creating one.
Despite the efforts of those central banks, several questions must first be addressed before launching the real product to the public. The user’s financial data could be exposed since the blockchain will make all transactions created in the system transparent.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86621/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Consumer protection is also a concern since all transactions made in the blockchain are permanent without the possibility of being reversed. Without firm solutions to those problems, the digital Australian dollar will not satisfy all requirements to be the next groundbreaking innovation for the country’s financial system.
Dimaz Wijaya, PhD Student, Monash University
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-rba-would-want-to-create-a-digital-australian-dollar-86621" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Why the RBA would want to create a digital Australian dollar: Dimaz Wijaya

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Westpac Group hopes to thwart "liar loans" by introducing stringent tests on residential property borrowers' existing and future capacity to meet repayments.
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Mortgage brokers' onus of proof will be switched from establishing whether a loan is suitable for a client to making a declaration as to why it is "not unsuitable".
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There are concerns lenders and brokers, paid by commission linked to the size of the loan, have overestimated borrower incomes and underestimated expenses.
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<a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/liar-loans-hit-500b-mortgagors-are-more-stretched-than-banks-believe-ubs-20170911-gyew5j">Investment bank UBS estimated recently there are about $500 billion</a> "liar loans", which could cause problems when rates rise from record lows.
<a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/banks-face-margin-squeeze-as-borrowers-forced-out-of-interestonly-loans-20171016-gz1ury">The tough new lending changes </a>from November 14 will apply to Westpac and Bank of Melbourne, BankSA and St George Bank.
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"Westpac is committed to responsible lending and meeting our conduct obligations," a bank spokesman told Fairfax Media.
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"The questions are designed to help understand your client's motivations and align the product to their requirements."
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"The declarations are there to prompt [a mortgage broker] to explain the implications of product choice and their features so a client can make more informed decisions."
 Clients will even be quizzed on having dependents with special needs that might require long-term spending on care and treatment.
It will apply to eight types of loans including fixed interest, interest only, loans for refinancing and debt construction and mixed purpose.
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<div>Questions will cover clients' foreseeable changes, but also special circumstances, such as those approaching retirement age during the loan term.</div>
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"Liar loan" crackdown by Westpac, St George, BankSA, BoM loan applicants

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The Reserve Bank is set to leave interest rates unchanged again when it meets next Tuesday, according to an analysis of 23 leading economic indicators.
Comparison website <a href="https://ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>’s ‘Rate Forecaster’ found that 21 of the 23 indicators suggested the RBA would leave the official cash rate at a record-low 1.50 per cent, where it has been since August 2016.
It’s now been seven years since the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate.
RateCity money editor Sally Tindall said it is unlikely the RBA will hike rates anytime soon.
“It’s incredible to think there is a now a large number of first home buyers who’ve never experienced a rate hike. Seven years is a long time between increases.
“However, when the RBA meets on Tuesday there is currently no strong case to move official interest rates.
RateCity’s analysis of official data shows there has been little change in GDP, unemployment, construction, auction clearance rates and retail sales figures.
“Lower than expected inflation figures and wage growth stalling at just 1.9 per cent provide an argument for the Reserve to cut rates, but that’s unlikely.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/inflation5.jpg" alt="">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Wages1.jpg" alt="">
“The RBA will also be concerned Australia’s household debt-to-income level increased from 190.0 per cent to a record 193.7 per cent in the last quarter – a worrying trend that that leaves them in a difficult position.
“If they hike rates, they will risk sending thousands of Australians into financial hardship. Conversely, if they lower rates, it will encourage others to take on more debt.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Debt4.jpg" alt="">
“In short, it’s hands are tied until wages growth, and the broader economy, strengthen.
“Until then, home owners can rest easy in the knowledge that their mortgage repayments won’t be increasing anytime soon,” said Tindall.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Econ3.jpg" alt="">
 
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RBA’s seven-year itch: the growing number of Australians who’ve never experienced a rate hike

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of September 2017, which revealed a softer month for credit growth ex-housing, with total credit growth still tracking at +5.4% over the year. 
Annual business credit growth is no more than ticking along (+4.3%), while personal credit remains in negative territory. 
Housing credit expanded by +6.6% over the year to September, actually a little faster than the +6.4% pace seen a year earlier, contrary to what you might think.
However, a closer inspection shows that the monthly rate of growth was +0.48% in seasonally adjusted terms, the slowest increase since March 2016, so lending constraints are gradually taking effect.
Total housing credit is now sitting at a tick under $1.7 trillion.
Still powering along for now then, although there has been a concerted push to get borrowers off interest-only products lately. 
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1400"></a>
The purpose of some $59 billion of loans has now been switched from investor to owner-occupier since July 2015.
The RBA data showed that after accounting for loan switching, the growth in investor credit slowed to +7.2%, with further declines almost certain to follow. 
Watch your speed
APRA also released its monthly ADI figures, which showed investor credit growth slowing to a crawl - implying that the non-banks have picked up some market share in this sector - with the total value of owner-occupier loans up by +0.48% in the month. 
None of the major banks is now even remotely close the 10% 'speed limit' or regulatory threshold for investment lending, with only Westpac of the main players still pushing this sector along. 
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1368"></a>
A number of the second-tier lenders, including Suncorp, Macquarie, and others, have significantly cut back their investment mortgage exposure, perhaps suggesting some regulatory pressure. 
The wrap
While total housing credit is still rising at a solid pace, investor lending is clearly being snipped back sharply.
With population growth now tracking at historically high levels <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">as I looked at here</a>, it remains to be seen whether rents begin to rise sharply in the two largest cities in 2018 (personally, I believe that this is likely, especially in Melbourne, though few appear to agree with me at this juncture). 
The major banks are now growing their investment loan books at way below the arbitrary 10% cap, so theoretically at least investor loans could begin to feature more prominently again next year, but this may need the regulator to remove its foot from lenders' throats.
New home sales plunge 
In other news, new home sales continued the decline begun in 2015 with another -6.1% drop in September 2017, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures.
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="727"></a>
The drop was driven by a significant -16.7% drop in multi-unit sales.
New home sales are a leading indicator for building approvals, and following the longest ever upturn in building there now comes the dwelling construction downturn. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

RBA data shows the brakes on lending: Pete Wargent

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Hi Margaret,
I converted my main residence to a rental property and bought a house to live and then sold the old/rented property. The property was my principal home, built in 2009 and I occupied it from 2009 to 2015. I then rented and sold it with settlement in 2017 February. 
When calculating capital gains tax (CGT) for my old property, can I add unclaimed interest and rates  to the market valuation I got from when it first started producing income? 
For rental schedule can I include interest up to settlement date, even though the rental contract ended?
Thanks,
Todd
 
Hi Todd, 
When a former family home is subsequently rented out, there are specific rules around the subsequent capital gains tax treatment which will now apply to you.
If you do not wish to claim your principal place of residence on any other property, you can employ the absence rule which allows you to rent that property out for up to six years and, if you either sell it or move back into it within that time, you still don’t accrue a capital gains tax responsibility.
In your case, you may decide to shift that exemption to the new home you bought from the date you moved in, in which case there will be a small CGT liability for you.  Assuming you have a valuation from the date you moved out, you can reset the cost base to being that market valuation, and CGT will apply to any gain made since that time.  As your contract date is December 2016, it will qualify for the over 12 months hold period for the discount, and so the gain will be halved and then CGT applies according to your marginal rate of tax, on that amount.
You ask if you can add any unclaimed interest and rates which occurred while you lived in the property to the market valuation.  The answer to this question is no – as it was a principal place of residence, and these items have no benefits attached.  The market value is the cost base, and it is only any expense incurred after the property becomes income producing which become allowable deductions.
As for the interest, costs associated with owning a rental property can only be claimed as a yearly deduction when the property in question is ‘available’ for rent, and your property ceased being available when the rental contract ended.  However, you may be able to account for this interest in the calculations for assessing the amount of gain – essentially they may become an addition to that cost base.  It’s important that you chat to your accountant about this, as they are qualified to know all of these little nuances of property tax law, and can guide you to ensure that your tax return is prepared legally.
Kind regards,
Margaret
Have a property question? <a href="mailto:askmargaret@propertyobserver.com.au" target="_blank">Ask Margaret!</a>
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