Sydney-based fund manager and developer EG is seeking to turn part of the former Roche pharmaceutical campus in Cromer into a 130-home residential community, introducing a mix of low-rise apartments, townhouses and duplexes to the tightly held Northern Beaches market.

The SJB-designed masterplan has been prepared for the 3.2-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/100-south-creek-road-cromer-nsw-2099">100 South Creek Road</a>, part of the former Roche landholding that EG acquired for $55 million in 2017 through its Yield Plus Infrastructure Fund No. 2.

EG is proposing what SJB describes as a new "urban village" set within the site's significant existing tree canopy.

<img alt="Cromer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="482c9a58-49f1-4c53-a12e-aaa02336229f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-24%20at%2011.20.57%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=hZP8_XfPnfNq500dbcjlpVwYU1ebhF9_" />

Around three hectares of the site is considered developable, with the balance incorporating a riparian corridor that would be rehabilitated and revegetated as part of the proposal.

The indicative masterplan comprises approximately 72 apartments in low-rise residential buildings and another 58 townhouses and duplexes.

The apartment component would include around five one-bedroom, 37 two-bedroom and 30 three-bedroom residences, while the townhouse and duplex component would be spread across several different housing typologies. The overall scheme would deliver around 19,500 sqm of gross floor area at an FSR of 0.6:1.

Parking for the apartment component is currently estimated at around 112 resident spaces and 14 visitor spaces, while the townhouse and duplex component would have 116 resident and 12 visitor spaces.

A significant part of the masterplan revolves around retaining the established landscape character of the former Roche campus.

SJB's plans show heavily treed setbacks along both Campbell Avenue and South Creek Road, a centrally located collection of significant native and exotic trees retained as communal open space, and the regeneration of the northern bushland area.

The existing creek corridor along the site's western edge would also be rehabilitated and revegetated, creating additional separation between the new homes and the neighbouring Northern Beaches Business Park.

A heritage-listed cottage and its garden setting would be retained and restored, with SJB flagging its potential adaptive reuse as communal space.

The proposal also includes new communal recreation areas, pedestrian connections to Campbell Avenue and South Creek Road, and a contribution toward improvements to the adjoining Michele Reserve.

Vehicular access would be restricted to South Creek Road, with no vehicle entry proposed from Campbell Avenue. The main internal road would largely follow the site's existing driveway to minimise the impact on established trees.

SJB said residential redevelopment presented an opportunity to retain the majority of the site's heritage-listed mature trees while delivering a broader range of housing types than typically seen across the Northern Beaches.

"The site being 3.27 hectares in area represents one of the largest vacant sites in common ownership in the Cromer and Dee Why area capable of residential renewal," SJB noted in the masterplan.

The architect said the proposal would particularly target housing diversity through townhouses and other "missing middle" typologies suitable for singles, young families, downsizers and retirees.

<img alt="Cromer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e3f5d841-8491-427e-8ada-c70d3d03d6bc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-24%20at%2011.21.02%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=xTV7r.q8lrTzC9vKzMS9zMbjm9wKwhgm" />

The site emerged following the subdivision of the former Roche campus into eastern and western parcels.

EG has already transformed the western portion into the Northern Beaches Business Park, which incorporates heritage-listed office space, modern warehouses and indoor recreation facilities.

The proposed residential community, referred to as Cromer East in SJB's plans, adjoins established housing to the north, east and south-east, while the business park sits beyond the creek corridor to the west.

It is also within 250 metres of Pittwater House School and Northern Beaches Secondary College, while bus stops within a three-to-five-minute walk provide connections to Dee Why, Brookvale and express services to the Sydney CBD. Cromer Park and the South Creek open space corridor are also nearby.

EG acquired the broader 7.5-hectare former Roche campus in 2017 for $55 million through its Yield Plus Infrastructure Fund No. 2. The campus at the time comprised more than 25,000 sqm of industrial and office buildings set within landscaped grounds.

The current residential site represents the eastern portion of that original holding.

EG's investment strategy for the fund has centred on acquiring income-producing real estate with longer-term rezoning and repositioning potential, particularly assets benefiting from infrastructure and changing land-use patterns.

EG also has an established residential track record across Sydney, including Bosco in Five Dock, Tempo in Drummoyne, The Flour Mill in Summer Hill and Pindari in Randwick.

The developer says it has delivered more than 1,000 homes to date, with a further 3,000-plus residences across its development pipeline.

Joel Robinson

First look: EG plans 130 apartments on former Roche pharmaceutical campus in Cromer

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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In a radically unsurprising decision on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia left official interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-05" target="_blank">In their announcement</a> there was plenty of what amounts to copy-and-paste from previous rate decisions.
For instance:
“Employment grew strongly over the past year and the unemployment rate declined… Notwithstanding the improving labour market, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger economy should see some lift in wage growth over time.”
And on inflation it’s still low with the consumer price index (CPI) and underlying inflation (inflationary pressures in the economy that are predominantly due to market forces like supply and demand), below 2%.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5TxE0/3/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="449"></iframe>These are the key factors that make raising rates unlikely. Indeed, perhaps the only thing preventing a cut in rates is the fear of a housing bubble.
On that front the RBA seemed to report progress, saying:
<blockquote>
“[the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority] APRA’s supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets, although the level of household debt remains high.”
</blockquote>
Little wonder that markets are not predicting an increase in rates this year.
On the labour market front, <a href="http://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">the ANZ job advertisements survey</a> revealed that the strong growth in ads from previous months was largely maintained. Although for the month of February ads were down 0.3%, the robust growth in previous months means that ads are still up 13.3% on the previous 12 month period. It seems that the strong employment growth from last year is set to continue, but there is still no real sign of this translating into wage growth.
The global puzzle of why employment growth is strong while wages growth is weak endures. And, as the RBA comments reveal, it is weighing on the minds of central bankers.
The volatile <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/8731.0Media%20Release1Jan%202018?OpenDocument" target="_blank">building approval data</a> jumped around again in January, with approvals up 17.1% in January, following a 20% fall in December. Approvals for apartments jumped a massive 42.2% in January. That’s an interesting figure for two reasons.
The strong growth in supply of apartments is one factor that is (slowly) helping housing affordability. In cities like Sydney, with geographic constraints on all sides, the only place to go is up in terms of building new dwellings.
And less happily, sharp increases in supply are typically how bubbles burst. An important question is who is going to buy all these new apartments, and how speculative are those purchases.
There is scant evidence on this point, but <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/flipping-properties-to-be-debt-free/news-story/6a426435d073784bd0b10d1798be7ff5" target="_blank">plenty of anecdotal fears</a> about people purchasing off the plan with significant leverage in the hope of flipping at a quick profit. The apartment market is a key indicator to watch in 2018.
<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/5206.0Media%20Release1Dec%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">National accounts data</a> showed the Australian economy grew at the same rate in 2017 as is did in 2016, with GDP growth coming in at 2.4%. This points to one of the big, unresolved macreconomic questions of our time.
Is the “new normal” for economic growth something like 2% ? (This would put GDP growth per capita well below that.) Or was the great recession a damaging and long, but ultimately a temporary lull, and that we will return to 3%-plus growth sooner or later. I have consistently said I think its the former, but again it is too early to tell.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5368.0?OpenDocument">International trade data</a> released Thursday showed Australia’s trade balance at A$1.1 billion, up slightly from the previous month.
Speaking of trade, the biggest economic news of recent weeks was <a href="https://theconversation.com/americas-allies-will-bear-the-brunt-of-trumps-trade-protectionism-92735" target="_blank">the Trump administration’s announcement</a> that it would impose significant steel and aluminium tariffs (25% and 10% respectively). This has the potential to trigger a global trade war and tank economies around the world, although such a cataclysm is a fair way off yet.
Make no mistake, this is terrible policy. The worry is that its not just another cunning and cynical move by Trump, but that he actually believes in it. He has railed against trade deficits for 20 years, revealing the poverty of his understanding of economics.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92829/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">For now its wait-and-see, but the fact that National Economic Council director Gary Cohn resigned in the wage of the announcement suggests that Trump might not flip-flop on this issue - and that there is more bad news to come.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-one-thing-holding-back-an-rba-rate-cut-92829" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (<a href="https://twitter.com/profholden" target="_blank">@profholden</a>).
Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The one thing holding back an RBA rate cut: Richard Holden

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The Australian economy as measured by GDP grew 0.4% in the December quarter of 2017, which was just under consensus estimates for a 0.5% lift and is a weak finish to 2017.
Annual growth declined to 2.4% (from 2.9% - see chart below) which remains below Australia’s potential (at around 2¾%). Per capita GDP growth was just 0.8% year on year. Annual GDP growth in 2017 averaged out at 2.3%, the lowest annual rate since 2013 and less than would be expected given a strong labour market (employment was up by 3.3% over the year to December 2017).
This can be explained by a decline in productivity which was down by 0.8% over the year.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/7/GDP.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/7/GDP.jpg" alt=""> 
The main points from the December quarter GDP data are:
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Stronger than expected consumer spending. Consumer spending rose by 1.0% in the quarter (contributing 0.6 percentage points to growth and retail accounting for a third of the contribution). This was a strong quarter for consumers but is unlikely to be repeated in early 2018, with the latest retail data showing poor growth in spending over January. The household savings rate is low (at 2.7% in the December quarter) and has probably bottomed for now (stabilising from a downwardly revised 2.5% in mid-2017) but still is well below levels of 8% around three years ago. It is difficult to see households gaining confidence to run down their savings rate further in the current environment of low wages growth, slowing wealth accumulation (as home price growth weakens) and high debt levels.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Residential construction detracted 0.1 percentage points from growth, as expected. Housing construction has passed its peak and will continue to make a small negative contribution to growth in 2018. But, building approvals remain at high levels which will keep residential construction elevated. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) detracted 0.1 percentage points from growth, with non-residential building up, engineering construction down and a solid lift in plant and equipment spending. Business investment growth is recovering as the mining investment decline has nearly finished and non-mining investment is improving. The recently published capital expenditure survey indicated that the environment for business investment is becoming more favourable in Australia, but the pick-up in non-mining investment growth is still probably a little softer compared to what is required to push GDP growth to 3% (the RBA’s forecast for 2018 GDP growth). </li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) remains strong and contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth. Public infrastructure spending remains high, particularly across transport projects (particularly across the east coast of Australia) and this will continue in 2018.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inventories made no contribution to growth in the December quarter, but inventory levels are relatively low posing no real threat to growth going forward.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Net exports detracted 0.5 percentage points from growth as export growth declined while imports rose. The outlook for export growth is still positive, as various resources projects continue to complete, there is plenty of global demand for Australian resources and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inflation pressures and wages are still weak but have bottomed for now. The household consumption deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) is just up 1.3% year on year which is well below the rate of inflation as measured by the CPI. And while total compensation of employees was up by 4.8% over the year this just reflects strong employment growth – average compensation per employee was up by just 1.6% over the year. This is below the 2.1% wages growth recorded in the Wage Price Index because jobs growth has been faster for low paid jobs than for high paid jobs. 
</li>
</ul>
Implications
GDP growth ended 2017 close to the RBA’s forecasts (of 2.5%) but the central bank still expects growth to average at around 3% in 2018 which may be challenging because of the poor outlook for consumer spending and a slowing in housing construction. And while non-mining business investment is rising, public infrastructure spending is surging and the labour market is strong, there are few signs of significant cost pressures as the economy is running below its capacity. Our view is that the Australian economy will strengthen somewhat in 2018 as business conditions are still very positive which will work through the spare capacity in the economy and eventually lift inflation. But that process will take some time. We see the RBA starting to lift the cash rate at the end of this year, but the risk is that the first rate hike for this cycle won’t happen until sometime in 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

No case for a near-term RBA rate hike as December quarter GDP soft and below-trend: Shane Oliver

The changing nature of investment: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

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Guest Observer
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.
While we expected that result, we were not expecting any significant surprises in the Governor’s Statement.
We were wrong.
Readers will be aware that Westpac has been consistently critical of the RBA’s GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 of 3 ¼ per cent in both years.
We have consistently argued that the number will be more in line with 2.5%. In all recent statements, the Governor has noted “the Bank’s central forecast for the Australian economy is for GDP growth to pick up to average a bit over 3% over the next couple of years”. This is confirmed in the official forecasts from the February Statement on Monetary Policy of 3 ¼ per cent in 2018 and 2019.
In today’s statement, he notes “the Bank’s central forecast is for the Australian economy to grow faster in 2018 than it did in 2017”. Tomorrow, with the release of the December quarter national accounts,  the measure of GDP growth in 2017 will print. Consensus  expects  growth of 2.5%. Westpac expects 2.4%. On the reasonable assumption that the RBA has a similar estimate (forecast in February SoMP was 2.5%), the above statement can be interpreted as the Bank now feeling comfortable with growth being above 2.5%, which is a major qualification of the Bank’s previous growth outlook.
This change does not seem to be indicated by a change in rhetoric around the economy. Indeed, the Governor points out that growth in exports “is expected to recover from the temporary weakness at the end of 2017”. Arguably, we could interpret this observation as attributing the lift in growth in 2018 mainly to a pick-up in exports. While the Reserve Bank does not supply independent estimates of its forecasts for household consumption, we have always presumed that it is more optimistic for household spending in 2018 than in 2017.
Certainly, Treasury’s forecasts indicate an expected boost to consumer spending in 2018. The RBA continues to highlight the outlook for household consumption as a “continuing source of uncertainty”.
While this change in the attitude to growth appears to be somewhat more dovish, the Bank does show some more confidence about wages. The Governor points out that “the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed”. This is an upgrade from the wages commentary in previous statements. The facts are of course that annual wages growth lifted in the December quarter from 2.0% in the September quarter to 2.1%, also consistent with the Governor’s comment, “wage growth remains low”.
The commentary around housing has also changed somewhat. The two major markets, Sydney and Melbourne, are now singled out and described as “have slowed”.
There is no change in the commentary around inflation (“likely to remain low for some time”); the Australian dollar (“remains within the range it has been in over the past two years”); employment (“forward looking indicators continue to point to solid growth”); Terms of Trade (“expected to decline over the next few years”); and the global economy (“has strengthened over the past year”).
The recent volatility in the share market is recognised, although no implications for markets or the global economy are drawn.
Conclusion
The Reserve Bank appears to be less confident about the growth outlook. Nevertheless, we still believe that it expects to be raising interest rates beginning sometime in late 2018 and into 2019. That would be in line with current market pricing.
In contrast, Westpac is not surprised to see the Bank more cautious on the growth outlook and we continue to expect that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2018 and 2019.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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Reserve Bank hold suggests a more cautious assessment of the growth outlook: Westpac

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The second meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 17 meetings.
It was 18 meetings ago that they last came down. 
It is the longest run of steady rates. Last rate decision was a run of were 17 meetings (inclusive) between their August 2013 meeting and December 2014 where they held at 2.5 percent. There was another run of 16 meetings between July 2002 and October 2003 where rates were held at 4.75 percent.
Almost every economist predicted a hold at the first meeting of the year.
Most don't foresee any change throughout much of 2018.
AMP Capital senior economist Shane Oliver said RBA will hike rates, but not yet.
"High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes.
"But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall.
"So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
For a full list of what the 33 experts in Finder.com.au's RBA Survey have to say on the RBA cash rate decision click here.
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RBA keeps rates on hold for record 17th consecutive meetings

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
The global economy has strengthened over the past year. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth picked up in the Asian economies in 2017, partly supported by increased international trade. The Chinese economy continues to grow solidly, with the authorities paying increased attention to the risks in the financial sector and the sustainability of growth.
The pick-up in the global economy has contributed to a rise in oil and other commodity prices over the past year. Even so, Australia's terms of trade are expected to decline over the next few years, but remain at a relatively high level.
Globally, inflation remains low, although higher commodity prices and tight labour markets are likely to see inflation increase over the next couple of years. Long-term bond yields have risen but are still low. Market volatility has increased from the very low levels of last year. As conditions have improved in the global economy, a number of central banks have withdrawn some monetary stimulus. Financial conditions remain expansionary, with credit spreads narrow.
The Bank's central forecast is for the Australian economy to grow faster in 2018 than it did in 2017. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is increasing. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy. Further growth in exports is expected after temporary weakness at the end of 2017. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high.
Employment grew strongly over the past year and the unemployment rate declined. Employment has been rising in all states and has been accompanied by a significant rise in labour force participation. The various forward-looking indicators continue to point to solid growth in employment over the period ahead, with a further gradual reduction in the unemployment rate expected. Notwithstanding the improving labour market, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger economy should see some lift in wage growth over time. Consistent with this, the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed and there are reports that some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills.
Inflation remains low, with both CPI and underlying inflation running a little below 2 per cent. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing. A gradual pick-up in inflation is, however, expected as the economy strengthens. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to be a bit above 2 per cent in 2018.
On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.
The housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have slowed. Nationwide measures of housing prices are little changed over the past six months, with prices having recorded falls in some areas. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. APRA's supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets, although the level of household debt remains high.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries">
Philip Lowe is Governor, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>. </div>
 
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

House prices slowing: RBA March 2018 Governor Philip Lowe's statement 

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Each of Finder.com.au's 33 experts predicted a cash rate hold at today's 2.30 RBA announcement.
Here’s what some of them had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): ​"There remains no compelling reason for the RBA to move the dial when it comes to interest rates. Employment data, business conditions and overall growth figures are solid, though there seems no obvious catalyst to turn around record low wage growth, whilst a slowing property market will inevitably weigh on confidence. We remain of the view that the next move in rates will be a reduction."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): ​"RBA has stated that the process of inflation returning to target will be gradual."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):​ "High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes. But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall. So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
Alison L Booth, ANU (Hold):​ "The fundamentals have remained fairly steady."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):​ "Inflation below target band; mixed indicators."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold):​ "Price and wages inflation still low, so no pressures yet. RBA has a large buffer between rising US rates and local rates, so there is no hurry to raise rates. Although A$ is still a bit high for RBA's comfort, the Bank is still reluctant to cut rates, because it fears it would re-ignite property prices."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): ​"The RBA has said that there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in interest rates (i.e. a hike) as inflation is going to rise to the 2-3% target only slowly."
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): ​"RBA is emphasising patience and gradualism with respect to rates."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): ​"Nothing has happened since the February meeting (and the publication of the February SoMP) to prompt the RBA to change its evaluation of the appropriateness of current monetary policy settings."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): ​"Still insufficient wages and price growth to force the RBA's hand."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold):​ "Economic data does not yet support a shift"
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): ​"Inflation and economic growth do not require intervention." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): ​"There is no economic reason to shift rates and the outlook has not been altered by any deviation in the recent solid data flow."
Andrew Wilson, Independent economist (Hold):​ "We are experiencing a benign environment for interest rate movements either up or down. After APRA regulations restricting the availability of loans to investors, we actually saw rates for owner occupier loans fall – the difference between owner occupier and investor loans is now smaller than ever. APRA are starting to make noises that they are satisfied that the market has stabilised. We’re likely to see a flat year for interest rates."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold): ​"The RBA is happy for the current momentum in the economy to continue to run. Inflation remains under control and wages inflation is yet to emerge." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):​ "The current interest rate remains appropriate and the fact that the banks themselves are applying tighter lending criteria to their customers demonstrates the potential impact a rate rise too soon may have. It’s a precarious position requiring a steady low environment in the near term."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): ​"It has flagged that it's not in a hurry to raise rates." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):​ "No discernible change from last month. Employment continue to remain strong, however, wage growth and inflation remain soft. Property markets have seen prices begin to soften, thanks to an increase in listings and a moderation in investor demand." John Caelli, ME (Hold): ​"The RBA has already indicated it will hold the cash rate until key economic indicators improve."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): ​"While overseas interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months, the RBA Governor has made it clear that Australian rates don't need to be in lock step with overseas rates. There is currently no reason to change rates to either stimulate or slow down our economy."
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold):​ "At this point the RBA would be close to raising rates, but probably still waiting for overseas rises to occur and monitoring of financial markets after this happens."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): ​"While the economic outlook has if anything improved in recent times, the economy is far from over-heating, inflation remains well contained, and the Australian dollar arguably remains a tad high. The Reserve Bank will leave rates at their current highly accommodative level for at least the next few months to allow the economy to continue to gather momentum. A rate hike will likely become a more serious consideration later in the year."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold):​ "Wages data is too weak."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): ​"The central bank will be cautiously content with how things are faring, with no need to change the cash rate."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): ​"Property prices falling – our dollar weakening – no reason to move."
Nathan McMullen, RAMS (Hold): ​"Inflation is within tolerance." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): ​"Economy still not strong enough to start increasing."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold):​ "The next move is more than likely to be higher, and the RBA sees progress towards employment and inflation goals. However, spare capacity still exists within the domestic economy and will therefore hold off from raising interest rates for some time.”
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):​ "Wage growth slow. Exchange rate needs to be lowered somewhat."
Other participants:​ Bill Evans - Westpac (Hold), Stephen Koukoulas - Market Economics (Hold), Paul Bloxham - HSBC Bank Australia Limited (Hold), John Hewson -ANU (Hold).
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA on hold: March's unanimous forecast among tipsters

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Australia's major lenders are set to join the trend towards cutting their interest-only mortgage rates.
Australia's big four have been losing market share to smaller lenders since they needed to meet APRA's 30 percent cap on interest-only loans.
Commonwealth Bank, Australia's largest mortgage lender, has already cut a range of fixed rate interest-only home loans by up to 50 basis points.
The loans range from one to four years.
Matt Comyn, the incoming Commonwealth Bank CEO, recently highlighted plans to rebuild interest-only market share after over-shooting the regulatory 30 per cent target and ending in the low 20s.
Canstar's group executive for financial services Steve Mickenbecker told the Australian Financial Review to "expect others to follow."
Montgomery Investment Management portfolio manager Stuart Jackson told the AFR non-bank financial institution (NBFI) lending appears to have taken up the slack of property buyer demand.
"This is not great news because either the macro-prudential restrictions put (the banks) at a competitive disadvantage to the NBFIs, resulting in ongoing reductions in market share, or the risks to the financial system that the macro-prudential regulations are intended to fix are not addressed due to the shift in lending demand to the NBFIs," Mr Jackson said.
Westpac have selectively began cutting rates while ANZ are also expected to follow.
ING, Macquarie Bank and Virgin Money have reduced rates on their interest-only products, while Bankwest, Homeloans.com and BlueBay Home Loans also recently cut rates.
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
 
 
 
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
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Banks set to follow CBA mortgage rate cuts to regain marketshare

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Interest rates remain a hot button issue for Australian consumers, the mortgage belt in particular.
Most recently, the weakening in sentiment in Jun-Sep last year highlighted once again just how sensitive consumers are to actual and prospective rate moves.
The period coincided with increased rates on investor and ‘interest only’ loans following macro-prudential measures from APRA. It also coincided with increased media speculation about the potential for a rate tightening cycle from the RBA. Headline sentiment slid about 4% through mid 2017, registering its lowest read for the year in Aug, with sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage sinking to an 18mth low.
Notably, actual consumer spending also stalled flat in the quarter, showing that, against a backdrop of weak income growth, high debt levels and risking risk aversion, this sort of sentiment pull back can have an immediate impact on spending decisions.
Click here <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" alt="">
We get a specific read on consumer views on interest rates from our biannual question on mortgage rate expectations. The Feb update shows consumers are less hawkish than in Aug last year. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 65.1 from 68.2 in Aug, the highest level since Jun 2011, prior to the RBA commencing its current, extended easing cycle. The Feb read is still well above the 43.5 avg since we started running the question in 2010.
Allowing for a clear ‘upward bias’ to consumers’ mortgage rate expectations, history suggests the Feb expectations read is roughly consistent with a 10bp rise in mortgage rates over the next year.
That is a less hawkish view than both current market pricing (+23bps) and the average economist cash rate forecast (+16bps) despite both markets and economists lowering their near term calls on rates. Westpac Economics continues to expect no change in official rates over 2018 and 2019. However, the hawkish tilt to expectations suggests rate concerns will continue to be a dampening influence on consumers' housing market decisions.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumers sensitive to actual and prospective rate moves: Westpac's Matt Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER 
December quarter wages growth in Australia was a stronger than expected 0.6% quarter on quarter which lifted the annual pace of wages growth to 2.1%, its strongest in 18 months.
This was above market expectations for a 0.5% quarterly gain.
Underlying wages growth may be bottoming, but its premature to conclude that its starting to lift: as the stronger than expected December quarter gain likely reflects a continuing flow through of last year’s minimum wage rise (which appeared to impact less than expected in the September quarter); adjusting for the minimum wage rise leaves underlying wages growth still stuck around its low of just 1.9% year on year; and the acceleration in quarterly wages growth was only driven by the public sector with private wages growth stuck at 0.5% quarter on quarter.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/21/wages.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/wages.jpg" alt="">
 
Meanwhile, wage increases in new enterprise bargaining agreements have been tending to be lower also suggesting there has been no real lift in underlying wages growth and spare capacity in the labour market remains very high.
So our view remains that its premature to conclude that the long awaited lift in wages growth is upon us and so we see no reason for the RBA to change its conclusion that the lift in inflation towards target will be gradual and we continue to expect that the RBA won’t be raising rates until late this year at the earliest. So the Australian dollar was right to give up its initial bounce after the wage data was released.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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