<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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In a radically unsurprising decision on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia left official interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-05" target="_blank">In their announcement</a> there was plenty of what amounts to copy-and-paste from previous rate decisions.
For instance:
“Employment grew strongly over the past year and the unemployment rate declined… Notwithstanding the improving labour market, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger economy should see some lift in wage growth over time.”
And on inflation it’s still low with the consumer price index (CPI) and underlying inflation (inflationary pressures in the economy that are predominantly due to market forces like supply and demand), below 2%.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5TxE0/3/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="449"></iframe>These are the key factors that make raising rates unlikely. Indeed, perhaps the only thing preventing a cut in rates is the fear of a housing bubble.
On that front the RBA seemed to report progress, saying:
<blockquote>
“[the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority] APRA’s supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets, although the level of household debt remains high.”
</blockquote>
Little wonder that markets are not predicting an increase in rates this year.
On the labour market front, <a href="http://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">the ANZ job advertisements survey</a> revealed that the strong growth in ads from previous months was largely maintained. Although for the month of February ads were down 0.3%, the robust growth in previous months means that ads are still up 13.3% on the previous 12 month period. It seems that the strong employment growth from last year is set to continue, but there is still no real sign of this translating into wage growth.
The global puzzle of why employment growth is strong while wages growth is weak endures. And, as the RBA comments reveal, it is weighing on the minds of central bankers.
The volatile <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/8731.0Media%20Release1Jan%202018?OpenDocument" target="_blank">building approval data</a> jumped around again in January, with approvals up 17.1% in January, following a 20% fall in December. Approvals for apartments jumped a massive 42.2% in January. That’s an interesting figure for two reasons.
The strong growth in supply of apartments is one factor that is (slowly) helping housing affordability. In cities like Sydney, with geographic constraints on all sides, the only place to go is up in terms of building new dwellings.
And less happily, sharp increases in supply are typically how bubbles burst. An important question is who is going to buy all these new apartments, and how speculative are those purchases.
There is scant evidence on this point, but <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/flipping-properties-to-be-debt-free/news-story/6a426435d073784bd0b10d1798be7ff5" target="_blank">plenty of anecdotal fears</a> about people purchasing off the plan with significant leverage in the hope of flipping at a quick profit. The apartment market is a key indicator to watch in 2018.
<a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/5206.0Media%20Release1Dec%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">National accounts data</a> showed the Australian economy grew at the same rate in 2017 as is did in 2016, with GDP growth coming in at 2.4%. This points to one of the big, unresolved macreconomic questions of our time.
Is the “new normal” for economic growth something like 2% ? (This would put GDP growth per capita well below that.) Or was the great recession a damaging and long, but ultimately a temporary lull, and that we will return to 3%-plus growth sooner or later. I have consistently said I think its the former, but again it is too early to tell.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5368.0?OpenDocument">International trade data</a> released Thursday showed Australia’s trade balance at A$1.1 billion, up slightly from the previous month.
Speaking of trade, the biggest economic news of recent weeks was <a href="https://theconversation.com/americas-allies-will-bear-the-brunt-of-trumps-trade-protectionism-92735" target="_blank">the Trump administration’s announcement</a> that it would impose significant steel and aluminium tariffs (25% and 10% respectively). This has the potential to trigger a global trade war and tank economies around the world, although such a cataclysm is a fair way off yet.
Make no mistake, this is terrible policy. The worry is that its not just another cunning and cynical move by Trump, but that he actually believes in it. He has railed against trade deficits for 20 years, revealing the poverty of his understanding of economics.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92829/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">For now its wait-and-see, but the fact that National Economic Council director Gary Cohn resigned in the wage of the announcement suggests that Trump might not flip-flop on this issue - and that there is more bad news to come.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-one-thing-holding-back-an-rba-rate-cut-92829" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (<a href="https://twitter.com/profholden" target="_blank">@profholden</a>).
Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The one thing holding back an RBA rate cut: Richard Holden

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The Australian economy as measured by GDP grew 0.4% in the December quarter of 2017, which was just under consensus estimates for a 0.5% lift and is a weak finish to 2017.
Annual growth declined to 2.4% (from 2.9% - see chart below) which remains below Australia’s potential (at around 2¾%). Per capita GDP growth was just 0.8% year on year. Annual GDP growth in 2017 averaged out at 2.3%, the lowest annual rate since 2013 and less than would be expected given a strong labour market (employment was up by 3.3% over the year to December 2017).
This can be explained by a decline in productivity which was down by 0.8% over the year.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/7/GDP.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/7/GDP.jpg" alt=""> 
The main points from the December quarter GDP data are:
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Stronger than expected consumer spending. Consumer spending rose by 1.0% in the quarter (contributing 0.6 percentage points to growth and retail accounting for a third of the contribution). This was a strong quarter for consumers but is unlikely to be repeated in early 2018, with the latest retail data showing poor growth in spending over January. The household savings rate is low (at 2.7% in the December quarter) and has probably bottomed for now (stabilising from a downwardly revised 2.5% in mid-2017) but still is well below levels of 8% around three years ago. It is difficult to see households gaining confidence to run down their savings rate further in the current environment of low wages growth, slowing wealth accumulation (as home price growth weakens) and high debt levels.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Residential construction detracted 0.1 percentage points from growth, as expected. Housing construction has passed its peak and will continue to make a small negative contribution to growth in 2018. But, building approvals remain at high levels which will keep residential construction elevated. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) detracted 0.1 percentage points from growth, with non-residential building up, engineering construction down and a solid lift in plant and equipment spending. Business investment growth is recovering as the mining investment decline has nearly finished and non-mining investment is improving. The recently published capital expenditure survey indicated that the environment for business investment is becoming more favourable in Australia, but the pick-up in non-mining investment growth is still probably a little softer compared to what is required to push GDP growth to 3% (the RBA’s forecast for 2018 GDP growth). </li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) remains strong and contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth. Public infrastructure spending remains high, particularly across transport projects (particularly across the east coast of Australia) and this will continue in 2018.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inventories made no contribution to growth in the December quarter, but inventory levels are relatively low posing no real threat to growth going forward.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Net exports detracted 0.5 percentage points from growth as export growth declined while imports rose. The outlook for export growth is still positive, as various resources projects continue to complete, there is plenty of global demand for Australian resources and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inflation pressures and wages are still weak but have bottomed for now. The household consumption deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) is just up 1.3% year on year which is well below the rate of inflation as measured by the CPI. And while total compensation of employees was up by 4.8% over the year this just reflects strong employment growth – average compensation per employee was up by just 1.6% over the year. This is below the 2.1% wages growth recorded in the Wage Price Index because jobs growth has been faster for low paid jobs than for high paid jobs. 
</li>
</ul>
Implications
GDP growth ended 2017 close to the RBA’s forecasts (of 2.5%) but the central bank still expects growth to average at around 3% in 2018 which may be challenging because of the poor outlook for consumer spending and a slowing in housing construction. And while non-mining business investment is rising, public infrastructure spending is surging and the labour market is strong, there are few signs of significant cost pressures as the economy is running below its capacity. Our view is that the Australian economy will strengthen somewhat in 2018 as business conditions are still very positive which will work through the spare capacity in the economy and eventually lift inflation. But that process will take some time. We see the RBA starting to lift the cash rate at the end of this year, but the risk is that the first rate hike for this cycle won’t happen until sometime in 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

No case for a near-term RBA rate hike as December quarter GDP soft and below-trend: Shane Oliver

The changing nature of investment: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

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Guest Observer
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.
While we expected that result, we were not expecting any significant surprises in the Governor’s Statement.
We were wrong.
Readers will be aware that Westpac has been consistently critical of the RBA’s GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 of 3 ¼ per cent in both years.
We have consistently argued that the number will be more in line with 2.5%. In all recent statements, the Governor has noted “the Bank’s central forecast for the Australian economy is for GDP growth to pick up to average a bit over 3% over the next couple of years”. This is confirmed in the official forecasts from the February Statement on Monetary Policy of 3 ¼ per cent in 2018 and 2019.
In today’s statement, he notes “the Bank’s central forecast is for the Australian economy to grow faster in 2018 than it did in 2017”. Tomorrow, with the release of the December quarter national accounts,  the measure of GDP growth in 2017 will print. Consensus  expects  growth of 2.5%. Westpac expects 2.4%. On the reasonable assumption that the RBA has a similar estimate (forecast in February SoMP was 2.5%), the above statement can be interpreted as the Bank now feeling comfortable with growth being above 2.5%, which is a major qualification of the Bank’s previous growth outlook.
This change does not seem to be indicated by a change in rhetoric around the economy. Indeed, the Governor points out that growth in exports “is expected to recover from the temporary weakness at the end of 2017”. Arguably, we could interpret this observation as attributing the lift in growth in 2018 mainly to a pick-up in exports. While the Reserve Bank does not supply independent estimates of its forecasts for household consumption, we have always presumed that it is more optimistic for household spending in 2018 than in 2017.
Certainly, Treasury’s forecasts indicate an expected boost to consumer spending in 2018. The RBA continues to highlight the outlook for household consumption as a “continuing source of uncertainty”.
While this change in the attitude to growth appears to be somewhat more dovish, the Bank does show some more confidence about wages. The Governor points out that “the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed”. This is an upgrade from the wages commentary in previous statements. The facts are of course that annual wages growth lifted in the December quarter from 2.0% in the September quarter to 2.1%, also consistent with the Governor’s comment, “wage growth remains low”.
The commentary around housing has also changed somewhat. The two major markets, Sydney and Melbourne, are now singled out and described as “have slowed”.
There is no change in the commentary around inflation (“likely to remain low for some time”); the Australian dollar (“remains within the range it has been in over the past two years”); employment (“forward looking indicators continue to point to solid growth”); Terms of Trade (“expected to decline over the next few years”); and the global economy (“has strengthened over the past year”).
The recent volatility in the share market is recognised, although no implications for markets or the global economy are drawn.
Conclusion
The Reserve Bank appears to be less confident about the growth outlook. Nevertheless, we still believe that it expects to be raising interest rates beginning sometime in late 2018 and into 2019. That would be in line with current market pricing.
In contrast, Westpac is not surprised to see the Bank more cautious on the growth outlook and we continue to expect that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2018 and 2019.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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Reserve Bank hold suggests a more cautious assessment of the growth outlook: Westpac

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The second meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 17 meetings.
It was 18 meetings ago that they last came down. 
It is the longest run of steady rates. Last rate decision was a run of were 17 meetings (inclusive) between their August 2013 meeting and December 2014 where they held at 2.5 percent. There was another run of 16 meetings between July 2002 and October 2003 where rates were held at 4.75 percent.
Almost every economist predicted a hold at the first meeting of the year.
Most don't foresee any change throughout much of 2018.
AMP Capital senior economist Shane Oliver said RBA will hike rates, but not yet.
"High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes.
"But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall.
"So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
For a full list of what the 33 experts in Finder.com.au's RBA Survey have to say on the RBA cash rate decision click here.
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RBA keeps rates on hold for record 17th consecutive meetings

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
The global economy has strengthened over the past year. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth picked up in the Asian economies in 2017, partly supported by increased international trade. The Chinese economy continues to grow solidly, with the authorities paying increased attention to the risks in the financial sector and the sustainability of growth.
The pick-up in the global economy has contributed to a rise in oil and other commodity prices over the past year. Even so, Australia's terms of trade are expected to decline over the next few years, but remain at a relatively high level.
Globally, inflation remains low, although higher commodity prices and tight labour markets are likely to see inflation increase over the next couple of years. Long-term bond yields have risen but are still low. Market volatility has increased from the very low levels of last year. As conditions have improved in the global economy, a number of central banks have withdrawn some monetary stimulus. Financial conditions remain expansionary, with credit spreads narrow.
The Bank's central forecast is for the Australian economy to grow faster in 2018 than it did in 2017. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is increasing. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy. Further growth in exports is expected after temporary weakness at the end of 2017. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high.
Employment grew strongly over the past year and the unemployment rate declined. Employment has been rising in all states and has been accompanied by a significant rise in labour force participation. The various forward-looking indicators continue to point to solid growth in employment over the period ahead, with a further gradual reduction in the unemployment rate expected. Notwithstanding the improving labour market, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger economy should see some lift in wage growth over time. Consistent with this, the rate of wage growth appears to have troughed and there are reports that some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills.
Inflation remains low, with both CPI and underlying inflation running a little below 2 per cent. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing. A gradual pick-up in inflation is, however, expected as the economy strengthens. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to be a bit above 2 per cent in 2018.
On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.
The housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have slowed. Nationwide measures of housing prices are little changed over the past six months, with prices having recorded falls in some areas. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. APRA's supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets, although the level of household debt remains high.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries">
Philip Lowe is Governor, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>. </div>
 
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

House prices slowing: RBA March 2018 Governor Philip Lowe's statement 

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Each of Finder.com.au's 33 experts predicted a cash rate hold at today's 2.30 RBA announcement.
Here’s what some of them had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): ​"There remains no compelling reason for the RBA to move the dial when it comes to interest rates. Employment data, business conditions and overall growth figures are solid, though there seems no obvious catalyst to turn around record low wage growth, whilst a slowing property market will inevitably weigh on confidence. We remain of the view that the next move in rates will be a reduction."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): ​"RBA has stated that the process of inflation returning to target will be gradual."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):​ "High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes. But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall. So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
Alison L Booth, ANU (Hold):​ "The fundamentals have remained fairly steady."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):​ "Inflation below target band; mixed indicators."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold):​ "Price and wages inflation still low, so no pressures yet. RBA has a large buffer between rising US rates and local rates, so there is no hurry to raise rates. Although A$ is still a bit high for RBA's comfort, the Bank is still reluctant to cut rates, because it fears it would re-ignite property prices."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): ​"The RBA has said that there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in interest rates (i.e. a hike) as inflation is going to rise to the 2-3% target only slowly."
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): ​"RBA is emphasising patience and gradualism with respect to rates."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): ​"Nothing has happened since the February meeting (and the publication of the February SoMP) to prompt the RBA to change its evaluation of the appropriateness of current monetary policy settings."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): ​"Still insufficient wages and price growth to force the RBA's hand."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold):​ "Economic data does not yet support a shift"
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): ​"Inflation and economic growth do not require intervention." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): ​"There is no economic reason to shift rates and the outlook has not been altered by any deviation in the recent solid data flow."
Andrew Wilson, Independent economist (Hold):​ "We are experiencing a benign environment for interest rate movements either up or down. After APRA regulations restricting the availability of loans to investors, we actually saw rates for owner occupier loans fall – the difference between owner occupier and investor loans is now smaller than ever. APRA are starting to make noises that they are satisfied that the market has stabilised. We’re likely to see a flat year for interest rates."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold): ​"The RBA is happy for the current momentum in the economy to continue to run. Inflation remains under control and wages inflation is yet to emerge." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):​ "The current interest rate remains appropriate and the fact that the banks themselves are applying tighter lending criteria to their customers demonstrates the potential impact a rate rise too soon may have. It’s a precarious position requiring a steady low environment in the near term."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): ​"It has flagged that it's not in a hurry to raise rates." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):​ "No discernible change from last month. Employment continue to remain strong, however, wage growth and inflation remain soft. Property markets have seen prices begin to soften, thanks to an increase in listings and a moderation in investor demand." John Caelli, ME (Hold): ​"The RBA has already indicated it will hold the cash rate until key economic indicators improve."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): ​"While overseas interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months, the RBA Governor has made it clear that Australian rates don't need to be in lock step with overseas rates. There is currently no reason to change rates to either stimulate or slow down our economy."
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold):​ "At this point the RBA would be close to raising rates, but probably still waiting for overseas rises to occur and monitoring of financial markets after this happens."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): ​"While the economic outlook has if anything improved in recent times, the economy is far from over-heating, inflation remains well contained, and the Australian dollar arguably remains a tad high. The Reserve Bank will leave rates at their current highly accommodative level for at least the next few months to allow the economy to continue to gather momentum. A rate hike will likely become a more serious consideration later in the year."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold):​ "Wages data is too weak."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): ​"The central bank will be cautiously content with how things are faring, with no need to change the cash rate."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): ​"Property prices falling – our dollar weakening – no reason to move."
Nathan McMullen, RAMS (Hold): ​"Inflation is within tolerance." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): ​"Economy still not strong enough to start increasing."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold):​ "The next move is more than likely to be higher, and the RBA sees progress towards employment and inflation goals. However, spare capacity still exists within the domestic economy and will therefore hold off from raising interest rates for some time.”
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):​ "Wage growth slow. Exchange rate needs to be lowered somewhat."
Other participants:​ Bill Evans - Westpac (Hold), Stephen Koukoulas - Market Economics (Hold), Paul Bloxham - HSBC Bank Australia Limited (Hold), John Hewson -ANU (Hold).
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA on hold: March's unanimous forecast among tipsters

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Australia's major lenders are set to join the trend towards cutting their interest-only mortgage rates.
Australia's big four have been losing market share to smaller lenders since they needed to meet APRA's 30 percent cap on interest-only loans.
Commonwealth Bank, Australia's largest mortgage lender, has already cut a range of fixed rate interest-only home loans by up to 50 basis points.
The loans range from one to four years.
Matt Comyn, the incoming Commonwealth Bank CEO, recently highlighted plans to rebuild interest-only market share after over-shooting the regulatory 30 per cent target and ending in the low 20s.
Canstar's group executive for financial services Steve Mickenbecker told the Australian Financial Review to "expect others to follow."
Montgomery Investment Management portfolio manager Stuart Jackson told the AFR non-bank financial institution (NBFI) lending appears to have taken up the slack of property buyer demand.
"This is not great news because either the macro-prudential restrictions put (the banks) at a competitive disadvantage to the NBFIs, resulting in ongoing reductions in market share, or the risks to the financial system that the macro-prudential regulations are intended to fix are not addressed due to the shift in lending demand to the NBFIs," Mr Jackson said.
Westpac have selectively began cutting rates while ANZ are also expected to follow.
ING, Macquarie Bank and Virgin Money have reduced rates on their interest-only products, while Bankwest, Homeloans.com and BlueBay Home Loans also recently cut rates.
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
 
 
 
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
<h2> </h2>
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Banks set to follow CBA mortgage rate cuts to regain marketshare

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Interest rates remain a hot button issue for Australian consumers, the mortgage belt in particular.
Most recently, the weakening in sentiment in Jun-Sep last year highlighted once again just how sensitive consumers are to actual and prospective rate moves.
The period coincided with increased rates on investor and ‘interest only’ loans following macro-prudential measures from APRA. It also coincided with increased media speculation about the potential for a rate tightening cycle from the RBA. Headline sentiment slid about 4% through mid 2017, registering its lowest read for the year in Aug, with sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage sinking to an 18mth low.
Notably, actual consumer spending also stalled flat in the quarter, showing that, against a backdrop of weak income growth, high debt levels and risking risk aversion, this sort of sentiment pull back can have an immediate impact on spending decisions.
Click here <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" alt="">
We get a specific read on consumer views on interest rates from our biannual question on mortgage rate expectations. The Feb update shows consumers are less hawkish than in Aug last year. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 65.1 from 68.2 in Aug, the highest level since Jun 2011, prior to the RBA commencing its current, extended easing cycle. The Feb read is still well above the 43.5 avg since we started running the question in 2010.
Allowing for a clear ‘upward bias’ to consumers’ mortgage rate expectations, history suggests the Feb expectations read is roughly consistent with a 10bp rise in mortgage rates over the next year.
That is a less hawkish view than both current market pricing (+23bps) and the average economist cash rate forecast (+16bps) despite both markets and economists lowering their near term calls on rates. Westpac Economics continues to expect no change in official rates over 2018 and 2019. However, the hawkish tilt to expectations suggests rate concerns will continue to be a dampening influence on consumers' housing market decisions.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumers sensitive to actual and prospective rate moves: Westpac's Matt Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER 
December quarter wages growth in Australia was a stronger than expected 0.6% quarter on quarter which lifted the annual pace of wages growth to 2.1%, its strongest in 18 months.
This was above market expectations for a 0.5% quarterly gain.
Underlying wages growth may be bottoming, but its premature to conclude that its starting to lift: as the stronger than expected December quarter gain likely reflects a continuing flow through of last year’s minimum wage rise (which appeared to impact less than expected in the September quarter); adjusting for the minimum wage rise leaves underlying wages growth still stuck around its low of just 1.9% year on year; and the acceleration in quarterly wages growth was only driven by the public sector with private wages growth stuck at 0.5% quarter on quarter.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/21/wages.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/21/wages.jpg" alt="">
 
Meanwhile, wage increases in new enterprise bargaining agreements have been tending to be lower also suggesting there has been no real lift in underlying wages growth and spare capacity in the labour market remains very high.
So our view remains that its premature to conclude that the long awaited lift in wages growth is upon us and so we see no reason for the RBA to change its conclusion that the lift in inflation towards target will be gradual and we continue to expect that the RBA won’t be raising rates until late this year at the earliest. So the Australian dollar was right to give up its initial bounce after the wage data was released.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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