<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Macquarie Group has quietly brought to an end its six years as an investor in Mark Bouris-led mortgage and wealth group Yellow Brick Road.
Sources said Macquarie had offloaded its remaining YBR holding, which was less than 5 per cent.
It comes at a time the company faces corporate raider Ron Brierley's Mercantile Investment Company.
At the height of its YBR holding Macquarie owned an 18.4 per cent stake.
Its sell-down began in April with a large tranche of YBR shares secured by Mercantile.
The latest Macquarie YBR divestment also throws into question other parts of the strategic partnership, according to the Australian Financial Review, as YBR talked up the company's prospects, with backing from Macquarie, of becoming a fifth pillar to rival the major banks, claims later played down by Macquarie chief executive Nicholas Moore.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Mercantile owns almost 20 per cent of YBR.
It pitched its bid at 9 cents cents per share, a 3 per cent discount to where the stock was then trading.
YBR shares are well down from their most recent peak of 17 cents in October last year.
After Bouris rejected the takeover as “grossly inadequate," YBR’s shares rose 10 per cent to 11 cents.
</div>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Macquarie departs YBR

<html><body>Recent out-of-cycle rate hikes may be cushioned by subdued property prices with experts and economists predicting the downturn in Sydney and Melbourne to last 20 months on average, according to finder.com.au, the site that compares virtually everything.  In this month’s survey, experts and economists were asked to estimate how long the property downturn in Sydney and Melbourne will last, with the average prediction coming in at 20 months, or nearly two years. However, the downturn may last longer in Sydney with a slightly higher proportion of panellists believing the downturn will last 24 months or more in Sydney (9, 56%) compared to Melbourne (8, 50%). This pairs with greater positive sentiment for housing affordability with 43% of economists feeling positive about this metric, up from just 5% in March 2018 according to finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker. <img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/GGNPBSrOscmFBiMdZ0hkTADJdxrkDA8qdhUmnGl-jb2Q59PF0O3aWN7t6t2W3ATgkusIzAEj_jRjyffBE6ZoKNrO57Q01dia01Acx5ubBD1MDWaoFVMpqGVlQP2UOVV9a9mQUQQ" width="552" height="359" data-imagetype="External"> Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says falling property prices in some of the capital cities means the outlook for housing affordability has improved. “Only 4% of experts feel negatively about this metric, which represents a huge improvement since March this year. <img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/FL-u8Gtfb1J1w5DfKhbrabHbpi-BaWFrWvsWBYkrv4gHsSuGxzXEhkZ54xJWN2LAQaDRXpxXmuFcXlTbWOwRzSttgq548UE2flgmk0IoVklVNXtcdYGTJUtpnTbhL-eFDJ8G_2s" width="553" height="385" data-imagetype="External"> “While the out-of-cycle rate movements aren’t promising for first home buyers, this may be offset by a cooling market as now could be the time for them to get in while prices are low. “For many would-be home buyers, a lower sales price represents a saving that could outweigh the costs of a higher interest rate, so first time buyers may experience some cushioning against rising rates,” he said. Ahead of the board meeting tomorrow (04/09/2018), all 30 members from the finder.com.au RBA survey share the view that the cash rate will be held for the 25th consecutive month.  Cooke said while it’s likely the Reserve Bank will hold the cash rate, this hasn’t stopped lenders from lifting rates independently.  “The belief that the cash rate won’t budge combined with increased funding pressure from overseas has spurred Westpac, Suncorp and other major banks to hike mortgage rates out-of-cycle.  “We expect this trend to continue, with the remaining of the big four and other lenders likely to follow suit in the coming days. “Mortgage holders should brace themselves for higher interest rates – it’s not a matter of if, but when.   “Switching to a new provider with a lower rate could pocket you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan, so don’t be afraid to refinance if you’re unsatisfied with your existing or updated interest rate,” he said.  To view out-of-cycle rate rises in August 2018, visit this page. Here’s what our experts had to say: Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: "The RBA will hold interest rates at 1.50% at their next meeting, continuing a run of stability that now dates back over 2 years. Consumer confidence has been hit by the recent political chaos in Canberra, and job growth in the economy will likely slow down in the lead up to the next election, but the RBA is still reticent to cut, despite numerous headwinds the economy is facing." Tim Nelson, AGL Energy: "RBA has stated that it continues to expect inflation to be around 2.25% over the next couple of years as above-trend GDP growth reduces spare capacity in the labour market and there is an associated pick-up in wages growth." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "While economic growth picked up a notch in the first half of the year its premature to start raising rates as uncertainty remains around the outlook for consumer spending, the housing cycle both in terms of construction and home prices has now turned down, and wages growth and inflation remain low. So remaining on hold makes sense and this is likely to remain the case for some time to come." Alison Booth, ANU: "Fundamentals have not changed sufficiently to warrant changing the cash rate." Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics: "inflation and wages growth is low." Paul Dales, Capital Economics: "The RBA is patiently waiting to see if the unemployment rate falls as it is hoping and inflation rises back to the 2-3% target rate. I suspect it will be waiting for a long time yet." Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: "The RBA has made it clear that although it thinks the next move in interest rates will most likely be up, it is in no hurry to act on that inclination. And nothing has happened since the last meeting to have prompted them to change that view." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: "The economic fundamentals remain largely unchanged." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: "No reason to move with inherent weakness in the economy exacerbated by political and regulatory uncertainty both domestically and internationally." Peter Haller, Heritage Bank: "There is no reason for the RBA to change rates at the present time." Paul Bloxham, HSBC Bank Australia Limited: "Inflation is still below the target band." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: "The RBA finds itself between a rock and a hard place, the economy does not as yet justify higher policy rates, but equally it can not foster any better conditions that might see inflation accelerate more quickly because of the financial stability constraints it has, rightly in my view, it has also chosen to focus on." Michael Witts, ING Bank: "Despite the increase in mortgage rates from one of the majors, this is unlikely to alter the RBA stance." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: "There’s no compelling reason for the RBA to adjust the official cash rate at this time. Of greater interest is the approach the banks are taking with their lending terms. Some are cutting fixed rates in an attempt to build market share. Honeymoon interest rate deals are in vogue to attract first home buyer attention, but it’s necessary to crunch repayment numbers based on the actual rate you’ll be paying once the honeymoon is over. There’s significant rate movement irrespective of the RBA at the moment." Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: "That's what they keep saying they'll do." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker: "No major changes to economic conditions over the past months will see RBA hold the cash rate steady. In addition banks and lenders continue to change their interest rates independently of the RBA." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: "There is no reason to alter interest rates. Our weakening housing markets, low inflation rate and soft wages growth suggest no rise in rates is imminent in the medium term. If anything this would dampen already sluggish consumer confidence which has already taken a hit over the last month." Mark Crosby, Monash University: "The RBA has signalled its intent to hold rates for some months yet, though it is good to see some discussion about whether the current inflation target remains appropriate." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: "Macro environment relatively unchanged although out of cycle rate rises will be closely monitored by RBA if the level of increases impacts already constrained consumption." Alan Oster, NAB: "The RBA has stated that for the time being, they wish to be a source of stability and confidence in the economy. Rates are low and supporting economic growth which should see employment continue to grow and the unemployment rate decline further. At present there appears to be some degree of spare capacity in the labour market with relatively weak wages growth and inflation only just around the bottom of the RBA’s target band. The RBA is likely to continue this on this track until it is convinced spare capacity has fallen, wages growth is lifting and inflation rising more generally. This is only expected to occur gradually." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: "The central bank doesn't need to make any move." Matthew Peter, QIC: "While the RBA is clearly on hold for the time being, the market is not pricing a rate hike until 2020. But with growth picking up, the labour market tightening and the AUD heading to US70c, the RBA will surprise markets with a rate hike, probably as soon as the June quarter of 2019." Noel Whittaker, QUT: "No reason to move either way." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: "The next move is still likely to be an increase but for now, the economy is not strong enough to start increasing." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd: "We have had a positive effect re unemployment, now under 6% together with a strong outlook in the job sector, both with full time and part-time positions. I feel this needs to stay on an upward trend [for] least 1 more quarter before the Reserve Bank increases rates." Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "Ongoing low inflation and expectations it will stay low for some time allows the RBA room to leave rates on hold." Brian Parker, Sunsuper: "Still plenty of labour market slack, and wage and price inflation not picking up anywhere near fast enough to prompt higher rates." Richard Holden, UNSW: "They should cut but can't. Labor market is weak. Inflation low." Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics: "The Australian economy is not overheated. Demand pullinflation is not at work. Cost push could become a problem. Private interest rates are liable to increase." </body></html>

Sydney price downturn to last two years: Finder survey

<html><body>
<div>Variable rate customers who have their mortgage with Westpac and some of their subsidiaries will be forking out an average of $35 extra per month and $420 per year.
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is thanks to Westpac hiking rates by 14 basis points.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The new Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has demanded Westpac justify its out-of-cycle interest rate increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/30/Westpac%20rates.JPG" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said Westpac had held out longer than the market expected before caving into the pressure to hike rates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Westpac has today decided to use variable rate home loan customers to help ease their cost of funding pressures. Most households will be able to absorb the rate hike, however anyone who overstretched to get in the market will feel burdened by this extra cost," she said
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Now that Westpac has hiked, taking the brunt of the bad PR, it is expected the other three banks will match them.
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Ironically the banks are desperately seeking out customers to boost their lagging profit margins. They’re doing this by offering rock bottom rates, but only to new customers so if you’ve got a bit of equity in your home, now is a great time to consider refinancing,” she concluded.</div>
</body></html>

Westpac is the first of the big four banks to hike out-of-cycle

<html><body>
A review by ASIC has found that reverse mortgages are allowing older Australians to achieve their immediate financial goals – improving their lifestyles in retirement – but longer-term challenges exist.
For older Australians who own their home with few other assets, a reverse mortgage can allow them to draw on the wealth locked up in their homes, while they continue to live in their property.
ASIC reviewed data on 17,000 reverse mortgages, 111 consumer loan files, lender policies, procedures, and complaints. We also commissioned in-depth interviews with 30 borrowers and consulted over 30 industry and consumer stakeholders.
The review found borrowers had a poor understanding of the risks and future costs of their loan, and generally failed to consider how their loan could impact their ability to afford their possible future needs. Lenders have a clear role to play here and need to do more: for nearly all of the loan files we reviewed, the borrower’s long term needs or financial objectives were not adequately documented.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/28/asic%201.jpg" alt="">
Importantly, under legal protections in place since 2012, borrowers can never owe the bank more than the value of their property, and can remain in their home until they pass away or decide to move out. However, depending on when a borrower obtains their loan, how much they borrow, and economic conditions (property prices and interest rates), they may not have enough equity remaining in the home for longer term needs (e.g. aged care).
ASIC Deputy Chair Peter Kell said “Reverse mortgage products can help many Australians achieve a better quality of life in retirement.”
“But our review shows that lenders and brokers need to make inquiries that would lead to a genuine conversation with customers about their possible future needs, not just a set of tick boxes on a form.”
ASIC’s report also finds that there is an opportunity for lenders to reduce the risk of elder abuse. Under the new Code of Banking Practice, recently approved by ASIC, banks will be required to take extra care with customers who may be vulnerable, including those who are experiencing elder abuse.
Consumers also had limited choices for finding a reverse mortgage. Several providers withdrew from the market after the global financial crisis. From 2013 to 2017, two credit licensees provided 80% of the dollar value of new loans from 2013 to 2017.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/28/asic%202.jpg" alt="">
Background
Reverse mortgages are a credit product that allows older Australians to borrow using the equity in their home. The loan does not need to be repaid until a later time, typically when the borrower has vacated the property or passed away. They are a more expensive form of credit compared to standard variable owner occupier home loans; the interest rates are typically 2% higher and, as there are no repayments required, interest compounds. 
Consumer demand for reverse mortgages has grown gradually since the global financial crisis, with the total exposure of ADIs to reverse mortgages increasing from $1.3 billion in March 2008 to $2.5 billion by December 2017.
ASIC commenced a review of lending practices and consumer outcomes in the reverse mortgage market to proactively examine issues that might emerge for older Australians.
As part of this review, we evaluated the effectiveness of enhanced responsible lending obligations for reverse mortgages which were introduced five years ago into the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (National Credit Act).
This review examined five brands, who collectively lent 99% of the dollar value of approved reverse mortgage loans in 2013-17. These brands were: Bankwest, Commonwealth Bank, Heartland Seniors Finance, Macquarie Bank and Westpac (comprising St George Bank, the Bank of Melbourne and BankSA). As of late 2017, Macquarie Bank and Westpac are no longer providing new reverse mortgages.
This project forms part of ASIC's broader work for older Australians to help bring about positive changes for these consumers in credit and financial services: see REP 537 Building seniors’ financial capability report 2017 and REP 550 ASIC’s work for older Australians.
ASIC’s MoneySmart website has information for consumers about reverse mortgages. Consumers can also use MoneySmart's reverse mortgage calculator to see how a reverse mortgage can impact the equity in their home. 
</body></html>

ASIC issues reverse mortgage lending warning

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
However the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board contain increased confidence for the consumer outlook.
The themes we have seen in previous minutes around a continuing global economic expansion tempered by some policy induced slowdown in the Chinese economy remain. As before, the issue around international trade is highlighted as a source of uncertainty for the global outlook. The forecasts for the Australian economy which were set out in the recent August Statement on Monetary Policy are described as largely unchanged.
Of most interest in the commentary around the economy relates to a more confident assessment of the risks around the consumer. “Recent data on wages growth and expectations of a further tightening in labour market conditions had provided more comfort that household income growth would continue to increase gradually and support the outlook for consumption”. In previous minutes, the outlook for household spending was described as a source of uncertainty. In these minutes, the Board points out that “the more recent increase in minimum wages, the announcement of future tax cuts, and expectations of a further tightening in labour market conditions had reduced some of the uncertainty around the outlook for consumption.”
Commentary around the housing market is unchanged with Sydney and Melbourne house prices having “declined further in July and across a broad range of properties”. No real outlook is provided, although the Board continues to point out that “some further tightening of lending standards by banks was possible”.
The investment outlook remained positive, although non-mining business investment was expected to grow at a more moderate pace than over the previous year. The pipeline for building construction work was still reasonable supporting the growth outlook in the near-term but, by implication, slowing further out.
The minutes confirm the forecasts in the August SoMP which anticipate both headline and underlying inflation failing below 2 per cent to 1 ¾ per cent in 2018. This downward revision to the previous 2 ¼ per cent and 2 per cent respectively is attributed to some one-offs on childcare, TAFE and car registration fees and utilities prices. Appropriately, Board Members note that there is a risk that the recent decline in wholesale electricity prices could have more persistent effects. Certainly Westpac is of that view.
Finally, as expected, the minutes emphasise that reducing the unemployment rate and returning inflation towards to the mid-point of the target remain the necessary conditions to support higher rates. It is reiterated that the next move in the cash rate would more likely be an increase rather than  a decrease.
Conclusion
Today Westpac released an update to its forecasts, extending them out to the end of 2020. We anticipate the cash rate remaining on hold through 2018, 2019 and 2020. Factors which we consider important in this profile are: a steady weakening in the housing market through 2018 and 2019, low inflation, benign wages growth, and clear signs of a slowdown in the world economy.
The Minutes mention most of these factors but appear to be overly hopeful that economic activity and income growth will be sufficient to justify a rate hike at some point.
Bill Evans is the Chief Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Overly hopeful RBA board minutes contain few surprises: Bill Evans

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Minutes of August 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

<html><body>
To date Westpac has issued public forecasts for the outlook for growth and financial markets to March 2020.
These forecasts are incorporated in the August Market Outlook publication.
We are now extending those forecasts to end 2020.
Last year around this time we surprised markets by forecasting no change in the RBA cash rate out to end 2019. At the time markets were priced for at least three rate hikes (25 basis points per move) and the overwhelming majority of forecasters were anticipating the rate hike cycle to begin in 2018.
Markets have now partly moved into line with our view with only around a 50% probability of one rate hike by the end of 2019. Furthermore, 65% of forecasters in the Bloomberg survey are still expecting the cycle to begin by the third quarter of 2019.
Our view is that the cash rate is likely to remain on hold not only through 2018 and 2019 but also 2020.
Some may argue that we are unrealistically forecasting that Australia will completely miss the global rate hike cycle if rates remain on hold for such an extended period.
We differ from that view arguing that financial conditions are affected by more forces than just the RBA cash rate.
Through 2017 and 2018 we are already observing tightening conditions in the absence of RBA rate hikes.
This tightening is emanating from heightened macroprudential policies from the banking regulator APRA and the rise in wholesale funding costs for banks and corporates.
New lending to housing investors has fallen by 25% over the last year; housing credit growth is likely to slow from 6.5% in the year to September 2017 to 4% in 2018/19 and 2019/20. The bank bill rate has “settled” at around 25 basis points above those levels, which prevailed in previous years and is priced in markets to remain there for at least the next year or so.
As a direct reflection of that tightening in financial conditions we are now seeing housing markets weakening with outright price falls in both Sydney and Melbourne. These price corrections look set to be sustained for at least the remainder of 2018 and 2019 with soggy markets likely prevailing through 2020.
Housing markets typically recover when there is an increase in new buyers in the market. That increase can be attributed to a boost in affordability or a rise in confidence. In previous cycles affordability has been boosted by multiple rate cuts from the Reserve Bank; lower prices; and rising incomes.
In this cycle the Reserve Bank has made it clear that short of a major global financial shock (most likely emanating from China) or a major collapse in the local housing market, it will resist cutting the cash rate.
Neither of those scenarios figure in our central case.
Furthermore, we do not envisage a marked lift in income growth over the forecast period. Accordingly the “responsibility” for the restoration of affordability in the two major housing markets will accrue to prices. So an extended period of price weakness is required before we return to levels of affordability that will attract new buyers and stabilise the markets.
Bill Evans is the Chief Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

Westpac expects RBA cash rate to remain on hold until 2021: Bill Evans

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Yet again this week, the Hayne Royal Commission has brought disturbing news of misconduct toward customers of our largest financial institutions. This time super accounts have been plundered for the benefit of shareholders.
Recent research from economists at the United States Federal Reserve suggests this problem is not unique to Australia. If true, this supports the argument that larger financial institutions should be broken up or face more regulatory scrutiny.
The researchers found that larger banking organisations are more likely than their smaller peers to experience “operational losses”. And by far the most significant category (accounting for a massive 79%) within operational losses was “Clients, Products and Business Practices”.
This category captures losses from “an unintentional or negligent failure to meet a professional obligation to specific clients, or from the nature or design of a product”. When a bank is caught out engaging in misconduct toward customers, it is required to make good to customers – the so-called process of remediation.
It’s a category that perfectly captures the issues under review in the royal commission. Operational losses also include things like fraud, damage to physical assets and system failures.
In recent weeks we have heard a lot about Australian banks having to compensate customers. The cost to the bank is, however, far greater than the dollar value received by customers.
The administrative costs of such programs are significant, and then there are legal costs and regulatory fines.
While no-one feels sorry for banks having to suffer the consequences of their misconduct, regulators monitor these losses due to the possibility that they may increase the chance of bank failure.
Another aspect of the Federal Reserve’s study is the size of the losses. One example is where the five largest mortgage servicers in the United States reached a US$25 billion settlement with the US government relating to improper mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure fraud.
In another example, a major US bank holding company paid out over US$13 billion for mis-selling risky mortgages prior to the 2008 crisis. Settlements of this size have simply not occurred in Australia.
Why larger banks?
One might assume that economies of scale – reduced costs per unit as output increases – also apply to risk management. The larger the organisation, the more likely it has invested in high-quality, robust risk-management systems and staff. If this holds, then a large bank should manage risk more efficiently than a smaller one.
The possibility of unexpected operational losses should then be reduced. Larger financial institutions might also attract greater regulatory scrutiny, which might help to improve risk-management practices and reduce losses.
But the reverse seems to be true, based on the analysis of American banks from 2001-2016.
For every 1% increase in size (as measured by total assets) there is a 1.2% increase in operational losses. In other words, banks experience diseconomies of scale. And this is particularly driven by the category of Clients, Products and Business Practices.
In this category losses accelerate even faster with the size of the bank.
This could be the result of increased complexity in large financial institutions, making risk management more difficult rather than less. As firms grow in size and complexity, it apparently becomes increasingly challenging for senior executives and directors to provide adequate oversight.
This would support the argument that some financial institutions are simply “too big to manage” as well as “too big to fail”. If bigger financial institutions produce worse outcomes for customers, there is an argument for breaking up larger institutions or intensifying regulatory scrutiny.
Is the same thing happening in Australia as in the United States? The case studies presented by the royal commission suggest it could be, but it’s difficult for researchers to know exactly.
Australian banks are not required to publicly disclose comprehensive data on operational losses. APRA may have access to such information, but any analysis the regulator may have done of it is not in the public domain.

Perhaps this issue is something Commissioner Hayne should explore.
Elizabeth Sheedy, Associate Professor - Financial Risk Management, Macquarie University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-suggests-bigger-banks-are-worse-for-customers-101371" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Research suggests bigger banks are worse for customers: Elizabeth Sheedy

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Last week the Reserve Bank surprised by lowering its inflation forecasts for 2018 (both underlying and headline).
Headline was lowered from 2.25% to 1.75% and underlying was lowered from 2% to 1.75%.
If correct, that means underlying inflation will have printed below the bottom of the 2-3% target range for three calendar years in a row. Headline inflation will have printed below the bottom of the 2-3% target for five calendar years in a row.
Economists and policy makers generally focus on underlying inflation when assessing the meaning of the “signal” from any inflation print. That is appropriate because the underlying measure “trims out” any large “one off” movements that might be misinterpreted.
However, when assessing inflation over the long term the headline measure is important since it should be a more reliable driver of inflationary expectations.
After all, expectations could be reasonably expected to be influenced by what has actually happened rather than a statistical interpretation of the data.
Inflationary expectations are critical from a theoretical perspective to delivering an inflation outcome. They impact workers’ wage demands and firms’ pricing decisions.
“Inflationary expectations” are like “the natural rate of unemployment” or “the neutral policy interest rate”. They are highly attractive concepts for economists. However they are notoriously difficult to measure.
Consider the “natural rate of unemployment”. For Australia that measure is generally accepted to be 5%. As such it is expected that any unemployment rate below 5% will be associated with rising wage pressures. However evidence from other countries indicates that in this period of accelerating technological development, which is often “job substituting”, natural rates are lower.
We expect that it is highly likely that the natural unemployment rate will also be lower in Australia. But we will not know for sure until we get there. Certainly the Federal Reserve had a view that the rate was around 4.75%. But as the rate fell through 4.75%, wage pressures were missing.
We are not sure what the position of the Reserve Bank is on this issue given that the unemployment forecasts envisage the unemployment rate holding above 5% until near the end of 2020 and yet wage pressures are expected to build through the forecast period.
Policy makers forecasts and market watchers try to measure inflationary expectations. The Reserve Bank uses a range of measures – market economists’ forecasts; unions’s forecasts; inflation swaps; and the 10 year inflation indexed bond. These measures have been gradually falling and are described by the Bank as “generally consistent with the inflation target”.
However, the inflation target has been fixed for twenty years yet the expectations which used to be well above the target are now around the target. One exception is the measure which is widely used by other central banks, including the FED, the 10 year inflation indexed bond. Implied inflation expectations have steadily fallen from 3% to 2% over the last 10 years - well below the 2.5% target.
This comfort that inflationary expectations appear to be settling around the inflation target is the key reason why the Bank resists the periodic calls to lower the target.
The Bank believes that the existence of the target is a dominant driver of inflationary expectations. Consequently, if the target were to be lowered, then expectations would fall and a more disinflationary environment would evolve. This puts considerable weight on the target as a driver of expectations.
But, as discussed, the Bank has been unable to even reach the bottom of the target zone for five calendar years. Furthermore, they have made it quite clear that the next move in rates is up. Reasonably, economic agents could conclude that, even after five years, there is no urgency to reach the target.
We are unable to find a definitive measure of inflationary expectations. However after five years of underperformance of headline inflation below 2%, economic agents would be excused if they expected such conditions to persist.
With the Bank not prepared to use its interest rate “weapon”, and other policies around credit supply actually constraining activity, there must be a risk that, at least from an expectations perspective, low inflation is embedded in the system for longer than the Bank and the market is currently expecting.
In fact, Governor Lowe has often responded to demands to lower the target by claiming that others favour a higher target in order to boost inflationary expectations.
A reasonable query on the purity of the target could be made around the need to monitor financial stability when setting policy. That approach was confirmed by the Governor’s comments in a panel discussion at the Sintra Conference in June.
“To try to get it back to 2.5% very quickly, it would be mainly through people borrowing more money, and having higher asset prices — I think that’s a much bigger risk to our economy than people having surprisingly low inflation expectations.”
Reasonably, we can conclude that after five years of missing the bottom of the target zone, a more aggressive pursuit of the inflation target has been constrained by the need to address Australia’s challenges around financial stability.
The Bank is currently forecasting that despite three years of above trend growth (3.25% in 2018; 3.25% in 2019; and 3% in 2020 against a trend growth rate of 2.75%) inflation (headline and underlying) will only have lifted to 2.25% by 2020.
Perhaps that looks cautious but with inflationary expectations potentially anchored at or below 2%, it might be a tough target to achieve unless the Bank was willing to signal that it was prepared to pursue its target more aggressively.
Bill Evans is the Chief Economist for Westpac.
</body></html>

RBA's inflation expectations may be anchored despite official target: Bill Evans

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The significant increase in short-term wholesale interest rates and associated volatility has been a key topic of debate in markets throughout 2018.
Initially linked to higher borrowing costs in the US, a further spike in only Australian rates as the June quarter drew to a close saw participants' focus shift to domestic drivers of this pricing activity.
There are many market factors that have played a part in the surge in short-term interest rates. All are worthy of discussion, but in this instance we focus on the real economy's effect. Specifically, the broad-based deceleration in deposit growth.
While we believe that there is insufficient evidence to label the decline in deposit growth as the prime catalyst for higher short-term interest rates, deposit growth's persistent underperformance is critical to our view that the abnormally large market spreads present will, by and large, be sustained.
Put simply, if (in dollar terms) retail deposits increase at a lesser rate than credit, then Australian lenders’ reliance on wholesale funding must increase. This looks likely over the remainder of 2018 and 2019 if, as we anticipate, national and household income growth remain soft, led by weak wages growth; a downturn in employment growth; and the terms of trade.
Consumer saving and investing decisions are unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to deposit growth absent a shock because consumers already favour deposits (and super) over other asset types.
For superannuation deposits, weak income growth is not the only headwind. Over the past year, households' capacity to make voluntary contributions to super has been further reduced, limiting the flow of new fund inflows.
A falling allocation to domestic cash (in favour of offshore investment opportunities) amongst the industry has further restricted the flow of new deposits to Australian banks and other depository institutions. 
With the Australian economy expected to register growth at or below trend in 2018/ 2019 as global growth remains near its post-GFC peak, Australian investors' appetite for offshore assets is likely to persist.
The final point of note is the significant tightening of lending standards underway. This policy shift, yet again, is a negative for households' ability to accrue deposits. Specifically, those switching from interest only to principal and interest face a much higher total monthly payment.
Meanwhile, those who remain on interest–only terms will pay a higher interest rate now, and the majority will still inevitably have to move to principal and interest later to pay down the loan.
The longer that interest only terms are relied upon, the more rapid the required paydown becomes over the remainder of the 30-year term, unless a borrower is successful in refinancing the loan with another counterparty.
Elliot Clarke is a Senior Economist at Westpac
Andrew Hanlan is a Senior Economist at Westpac
Simon Murray is an Economist at Westpac
</body></html>

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News