<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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EXPERT OBSERVER
US Federal Reserve meeting
As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) unanimously kept the target range for the federal funds rate between 2.25-2.50 per cent.
FOMC members voted 9-1 to hold interest rates steady with St Louis Fed President James Bullard preferring a rate cut. 
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said “The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened” at his press conference after the central bank announced its decision.
The median interest rate projection still shows interest rates unchanged at 2.4 per cent this year, before falling to 2.1 per cent in 2020, down from the previous forecast of 2.6 per cent in March.  
Changes in US monetary policy settings can affect rates in Australia as well as the sharemarket and currency.
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<div>
What did the Fed decide and what does it all mean?
The US Federal Reserve has adopted a more ‘dovish’ policy stance, removing its previous reference to being “patient” with future rate adjustments. But the FOMC stopped short of signalling a July interest cut. 
That said, the FOMC’s interest rate projections (‘dot plot’) showed 8 of 17 FOMC members projecting that interest rates will need to be cut this year, with seven of those officials seeing two 25 basis point rate cuts. 
In its statement, the FOMC cautioned that US economic growth was “moderate” and “uncertainties about this [economic] outlook have increased.” 
Further, the FOMC said “in light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
The median federal funds target projections were adjusted. There was no change in the projection for 2019 of 2.4 per cent. But the forecast for the federal funds rate in 2020 is now 2.1 per cent (previously 2.6 per cent) and in 2021 the fed funds rate is now seen at 2.4 per cent (previously 2.6 per cent). 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/Commsec-Trade.jpg" alt="">
The FOMC updated its GDP and unemployment rate projections. The FOMC projects GDP growth of 2.1 per cent in 2019 (unchanged); 2.0 per cent in 2020 (previously 1.9 per cent), and 1.8 per cent in 2021 (unchanged). 
Meanwhile, the FOMC expects the unemployment to be 3.6 per cent in 2019 (previously 3.7 per cent), 3.7 per cent in 2020 (previously 3.8 per cent) and 3.8 per cent in 2021 (previously 3.9 per cent). 
On consumer prices, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (inflation) is expected to be 1.8 per cent in 2019 (previously 2.0 per cent), 1.9 per cent in 2020 (previously 2.0 per cent) and 2.0 per cent in 2021 (unchanged). 
What are the implications of today’s decision?
Commonwealth Bank Group economists now expect the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 2.00-2.25 per cent at the next meeting on July 30-31. 
And further interest rate cuts are expected as US-China trade tensions weigh on US business investment and hiring intentions. Wages growth has softened and manufacturing activity is moderating. 
The fiscal stimulus from the Trump Administration is fading, as evidenced by lower corporate profitability in the March quarter. And inflation expectations are receding, with the recent drop in the University of Michigan’s longer-run inflation gauge to the lowest on record. 
Financial markets reacted by factoring in a 100 per cent probability of the FOMC cutting rates at its July meeting. 
US sharemarkets posted modest gains on Wednesday. Healthcare shares rose by 1 per cent, but banks lost 0.9 per cent. The Dow Jones index rose by 38 points or 0.2 per cent. The S&amp;P500 index lifted by almost 9 points or 0.3 per cent and the Nasdaq rose by 33 points or 0.4 per cent.  
The Dow Jones is now just 1.2 per cent below its record high set in October, the S&amp;P500 is 0.7 per cent short of its April record high, the Nasdaq is around 2 per cent below its high reached in May.  
Following the release of the FOMC statement, 2-year US Treasury yields declined by 8 points to 1.80 per cent, while 10-year US Treasury yields fell by 4 points to 2.04 per cent.  
The US dollar weakened following the FOMC’s announcement on growing interest rate cut expectations. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3 per cent. Overnight, the Aussie dollar rose from US68.54 cents to near US69.04 cents and was near US68.87 cents in late US trade.
Comparing the two most recent statements
The statement from the May 2019 meeting is on the left; the statement from today’s June 2019 meeting is on the right. Emphasis has been added to highlight key points in the wording in the statements.
FEDERAL RESERVE press release
For release at 2 p.m. EST May 1, 2019
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Growth of household spending and business fixed investment slowed in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined and are running below 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren.
FEDERAL RESERVE press release
For release at 2 p.m. EST June 19, 2019  
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
Ryan Felsman is a Senior Economist for CommSec
 
 
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

US interest rates, an uncertain economic outlook: CommSec

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Heritage Bank are the latest to announce they are cutting rates following the RBA's decision earlier in the month to cut for the first time since August 2016.
Heritage Bank haven't passed on the full rate cut, deciding to cut its variable home loan rates by 20 basis points.
Their Discount Variable home loan rate is now 3.57%, down from 3.77%.
Peter Lock, CEO of Heritage Bank, says the rates remained among the sharpest available in the market place.
He said Heritage had considered the best interests of all its customers, investors as well as borrowers, in coming to the decision.
“We have to think about both depositors and borrowers when we make these decisions.
“A 0.20% reduction in variable rates means our rates remain highly competitive, and strikes the right balance for us and our customers.”
Lock said Heritage’s customer-owned status meant it did not have the deep pockets of the big banks.
“We don’t set out to make massive profits, so our margins are lower than the big banks. In addition the big banks have a funding cost advantage that smaller customer-owned banks don’t enjoy. We continue to actively work with the Government to address this imbalance.  “Despite the imbalance we still have home loan interest rates that as a whole remain lower than those offered by the big banks.”
“We always make decisions to balance the best interests of all our customers at heart, not to maximise profit, so our rates stayed lower through that period.”
Of the big four banks, <a href="/news/cba-announce-full-rate-cut-after-june-rba-meeting">Commonwealth Bank</a> and <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-joins-cba-in-full-0-25-rate-cut-to-historic-lows">NAB</a> both passed on the full rate cute, while ANZ <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anz-first-to-pass-on-part-of-june-2019-rba-rate-cut">passed on 18 basis points</a> and Westpac <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-to-cut-by-0-2-but-more-for-io-borrowers">passed on 20 basis points</a>.
Demand for fixed loans rising
Despite the declining variable rates across the majority of banks and lenders, it was demand for fixed rate home loans that rose in May.
According to new data from Mortgage Choice, fixed rate home loans rose over May, accounting for 22.47% of all home loans written.
Mortgage Choice CEO Susan Mitchell said over the last 12 months, fixed rates have accounted for 21.81% of all loans written.
"When you consider what has been happening in the market, the increase in demand is hardly surprising," Mitchell said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/Mortgage%20Choice%20May%20rates.jpg" alt="">
“Lenders on our panel have been aggressively discounting fixed rate home loan products, which has been effective in enticing more borrowers to commit to a fixed term.  “With rates as low as 3.49% p.a*., it’s unsurprising to see an increasing proportion of borrowers choosing to fix.” The data revealed that fixed rate demand was highest in Queensland, where 26% of borrowers opted for this type of home loan. 
This was followed by Western Australia, where 25% of borrowers chose to fix the interest rate on their home loan. Borrowers in Victoria were the least likely to fix, with 15% of borrowers choosing this type of product.   The most popular home loan products in May were ongoing discount Variable Rate loans followed by Basic Variable rates. “For those borrowers who may be considering fixing part or all of their home loan, now could be a good time to do so," Mitchell said.
"Current fixed-rate loan pricing presents good value by long-term standards. 
Mitchell suggested it is good new in particular for first home buyers who are looking to take advantage of government schemes and record low interest rates to enter the property market. 
“While news of low interest rates is certainly going to pique borrower interest, it’s equally important that borrowers remember the interest rate isn’t the only component of a home loan and they should look for the right loan product and features for their short and long-term needs." 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Rate cuts continue as Heritage Bank pass on 20 basis point cut

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Australian prime home-loan arrears rose again in April, according to a recently published report by S&amp;P Global Ratings.
The Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages, rose to 1.53% in April from 1.51% a month earlier. Arrears in April were up 17 basis points year on year.
Arrears were mostly up nationwide. The Australian Capital Territory was the only place to record a decrease in arrears during the month, falling 0.11%.
Western Australia and Queensland recorded the largest month-on-month increases, rising to 3.10% and 1.94%, respectively.
Around 35% of loans in Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) portfolios are domiciled in Queensland and Western Australia.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/19/Arrears%20SP.JPG" alt="">
Investor arrears rose to 1.52% in April from 1.46% a month earlier and owner-occupier arrears reached 1.76%, up from 1.73% a month earlier.
Investor arrears have increased at a faster rate than owner-occupier arrears this year.
This could partly reflect the repayment shock of interest-only loans converting to amortizing loans.
Interest-only periods are more common among investor loans. Around 30% of the loans in Australian RMBS prime and nonconforming portfolios are for investment properties.
"Most of the increase has been for loans more than 90 days in arrears," the report authors stated.
"Recent rate cuts will help with debt serviceability, but we expect it to make more of a difference in the earlier arrears categories.
"Borrowers who are deeper in arrears are more likely to struggle due to the diminished refinancing prospects in the current lending environment."
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Western Australian home loan arrears worsening: S&P

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Banks continue to turn their backs on riskier home loans, as the value of new interest-only and low doc loans hit record lows, according to APRA data released today.
APRA’s Quarterly ADI Property Exposures for the March 2019 quarter shows the value of new loans to owner-occupiers fell by 17.6 per cent from the previous quarter, while the value of new loans to investors fell by 18.7 per cent in the same time frame.
The value of new interest-only loans fell by 22.5 per cent between December and March to 14.9 per cent of all loans, the lowest percentage share in APRA’s records dating back to 2008. 
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said banks were continuing to be hyper-vigilant in the wake of the Royal Commission, despite the easing of regulations.
“APRA might have loosened the strings on interest-only and investor lending but the banks are still ultra-cautious when it comes to high risk loans,” she said.
“APRA had wanted less than 30 per cent of new loans written to be interest-only. The banks have well and truly smashed this out of the park.
“Not only do interest-only loans represent just 14.9 per cent of all new loans written, they also represent just 23.3 per cent of the banks’ entire loan books, according to the most recent data,” she said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/19/Riskier.JPG" alt="">
 
The data released today by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority showed that over the past 12 months the customer owned banking sector’s housing loans have increased by 8 per cent while the major banks grew by just 2.6 per cent.
Australia’s customer owned banking institutions now hold more than $119 billion in assets, an increase of 1.6 per cent compared to the previous quarter.  Consumers are also choosing to place their deposits with customer owned banking institutions. The sector now holds more than $101 billion in deposits. The growth in deposits shows a 6.5 per cent year on year increase in deposits. Customer Owned Banking Association CEO Michael Lawrence said consumers are sending a clear signal to the major banks. “Consumers are sending a very clear message to the major banks; either put our interests first, or we’re going somewhere that will. “The latest figures from APRA paint a clear picture of a sector that is continuing to grow as more Australians begin considering who it they choose to bank with. “Australians want banking institutions they can trust to put their interests first and to do the right thing by them. After the findings of the Financial Services Royal Commission it’s no surprise people are looking beyond the ‘Big Four’. “Consumers can see through the spin of the major banks. They know a leopard can’t change its spots, that’s why they’re taking their banking elsewhere"
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Banks continue to turn their backs on riskier home loans: RateCity

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The minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that meeting was driven by a revised assessment of spare capacity in the labour market and that the Board expects to ease policy further.
We continue to expect a further 25bp rate cut in August and a final 25bp cut in November.
Note that much of the information from the minutes is not new. Key aspects have already been covered in a speech by the RBA Governor on the day of the decision and in other commentary from the Bank since then.
Assessments have also likely evolved since June 4, particularly following the March quarter national accounts released a day later.
As such, our main interest in reading the meeting minutes is around the commentary from members and the tone of the discussion – particularly the degree of urgency around policy easing.
The minutes are clear on the prospect of further cuts, noting in the concluding paragraph that “… it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead”.
In the lexicon of RBA statements, “period ahead” signals that policy is ‘live’ in coming meetings but stops short of indicating an imminent move at the next meeting.
The case for easing in June rested firmly on a reassessment of the labour market.
Updates on wage costs, showing growth of 0.5%qtr, 2.3%yr to March, were seen as “further evidence of spare capacity”.
The latest data around jobs and unemployment is assessed as “mixed” – with an increase in unemployment and underemployment and a moderation in employment growth noted, albeit with the latter still running above growth in the labour force and participation rates reaching a record high.
The contrast with the “strong” description in the May minutes is striking.
However, the real change was around the assessment of the extent of spare capacity – i.e. the degree to which unemployment was above the ‘full employment’ levels associated with stable inflation.
As outlined by the Governor, the Bank now sees this as around 4.5% compared to the 4.75-5% cited previously – the shift reflecting the unfolding mix of wage and unemployment outcomes.
The current 5.2% unemployment rate is a sizeable 0.7ppts above this target level. While noting estimates are uncertain, Board members concurred with the change in assessment.
Other factors behind the decision to cut seem less urgent. The outlook for both the global economy and the Australian economy was assessed as “reasonable” albeit with the latter conditioned on market pricing for the cash rate that implied interest rates would be lower in the period ahead.
Around inflation, the persistence of low underlying inflation – below the 2-3% target range for three years and expected to remain low near term – looks to have been a secondary consideration behind the cut, giving scope for the move rather than driving the decision.
That said, there did seem to be some concern that this might start to undermine medium term inflation expectations.
The risks a rate cut would present around high household debt and housing markets were assessed as low.
Members judged it “was unlikely to encourage a material pick-up in borrowing by households that would add to medium term risks”.
Interestingly, members also noted that lower rates would “stimulate activity and thereby improve the resilience of the Australian economy to any future adverse shocks” – perhaps an indication that the Board is a little keener to get the economy moving.
Conclusion
Overall, the minutes confirm more easing is on the way. Board members appear very much aligned to the Governor’s views, particularly around the labour market.
That said, the ‘tone’ is not urgent in the sense that growth outlook still does not seem to be viewed as that challenging and low inflation is not a driving force behind the easing.
We continue to see the next 25bp rate cut coming in August and a final 25bp cut in November.
There are complications. After shifting its view on full employment and having identified more significant spare capacity in the labour market, the Board may see little point in delaying follow-on easing moves – the case having already been made.
However, we expect the next move to instead be framed by a downgrade to the Bank’s forecasts meaning it will be more inclined to move in August when the full set of revised forecasts are released in its Statement on Monetary Policy.
We expect this to include a downward revision to the Bank’s near term growth forecast from ‘around 2.75%’ to something more materially below trend. The disappointing March quarter national accounts release has already lowered the starting point.
Updates on the consumer are likely to show soft conditions extending into the June quarter. Meanwhile weak labour market updates are likely to take the unemployment further away from the Bank’s 4.5% target.
Given the need to adjust, it is much simpler communication-wise, to cut rates at the time the forecast is changed than to cut in July and announce the lower forecast a month later.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

RBA June minutes allay fear that low rate borrowing has medium term risks: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
With its official cash rate now expected to fall below 1% to a new extraordinarily low close to zero, all sorts of people are saying that the Reserve Bank is in danger of “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-rba-analysis/australias-shrinking-monetary-policy-arsenal-tests-rbas-orthodoxy-idUSKCN1S90CL" target="_blank">running out of ammunition</a>”. Ammunition might be needed if, as during the last financial crisis, it needs to cut rates by several percentage points.
This view assumes that when the cash rate hits zero there is nothing more the Reserve Bank can do.
The view is not only wrong, it is also dangerous, because if taken seriously it would mean that all of the next rounds of stimulus would have to be come from fiscal (spending and tax) policy, even though fiscal policy is probably ineffective long-term, its effects being <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publication/why-fiscal-multiplier-roughly-zero-0" target="_blank">neutralised by a floating exchange rate</a>.
The experience of the United States shows that Australia’s Reserve Bank could quite easily take measures that would have the same effect as cutting its cash rate a further 2.5 percentage points – that is: 2.5 percentage points below zero.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate since 1990
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277841/original/file-20190604-69059-1j2m4r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277841/original/file-20190604-69059-1j2m4r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-15" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>
In a report <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">released on Tuesday</a> by the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, I document the successes and failures of the US approach to so-called “quantitative easing” (QE) between 2009 and 2014.
It demonstrates that it is always possible to change the instrument of monetary policy from changes in the official interest rate to changes in other interest rates by buying and holding other financial instruments such as long-term government and corporate bonds.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279752/original/file-20190617-118539-fe387p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Australia can learn form US mistakes. <a class="source" href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">University of Sydney United States Studies Centre</a>
The more aggressively the Reserve Bank buys those bonds from private sector owners, the lower the long-term interest rates that are needed to place bonds and the more former owners whose hands are filled with cash that they have to make use of.
In the US the Federal Reserve also used “<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/timeline-forward-guidance-about-the-federal-funds-rate.htm" target="_blank">forward guidance</a>” about the likely future path of the US Federal funds rate to convince markets the rate would be kept low for an extended period.
It is unclear which mechanism was the most powerful, or whether the Fed even needed to buy bonds in order to make forward guidance work. However in a stressed economic environment, it is worth trying both.
As it comes to be believed that interest rates will stay low for an extended period, the exchange rate will fall, making it easier for Australian corporates to borrow from overseas and to export and compete with imports.
The consensus of the academic literature is that QE cut long-term interest rates by around one percentage point and had economic effects equivalent to cutting the US Federal fund rate by <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">a further 2.5 percentage points</a> after it approached zero.
QE need not have limits…
Based on US estimates, Australia’s Reserve Bank would need to purchase assets equal to around 1.5% of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product to achieve the equivalent of a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the official cash rate. That’s around A$30 billion.
With over A$780 billion in long-term government (Commonwealth and state) securities on issue, there’s enough to accommodate a very large program of Reserve Bank buying, and the bank could also follow the example of the Fed and expand the scope of purchases to include non-government securities, including residential mortgage-backed securities.
It could also learn from US mistakes. The Fed was slow to cut its official interest rate to near zero and slow to embark on QE in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Its first attempt was limited in size and duration. Its success in using QE to stimulate the economy should be viewed as the lower bound of what’s possible.
…even if it becomes less effective as it grows
It often <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-16/interest-rates-are-going-down-but-how-low-can-they-go/11210682" target="_blank">suggested</a> (although it is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2017/borio-hofmann" target="_blank">by no means certain</a>) that monetary policy becomes less effective when interest rates get very low, but this isn’t necessarily an argument to use monetary policy less. It could just as easily be an argument to use it more.
Because there is no in-principle limit to how much QE a central bank can do, it is always possible to do more and succeed in lifting inflation rate and spending.
Fiscal policy may well be even less effective. To the extent that it succeeds, it is likely to push up the Australian dollar, making Australian businesses less competitive.
US economist <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publication/why-fiscal-multiplier-roughly-zero-0" target="_blank">Scott Sumner</a> believes the extra bang for the buck from government spending or tax cuts (known as the multiplier) is close to zero.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe this month appealed for <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-04" target="_blank">help from the government itself</a>, asking in particular for extra spending on infrastructure and measures to raise productivity growth.
He is correct in identifying the contribution other policies can make to driving economic growth. No one seriously thinks Reserve Bank monetary policy can or should substitute for productivity growth.
But it is a good, perhaps a very good, substitute for government spending that does not contribute to productivity growth.
Three myths about quantitative easing
In the paper I address several myths about QE. One is that it is “printing money”. It no more prints money than does conventional monetary policy. It pushes money into private sector hands by adjusting interest rates, albeit a different set of rates.
Another myth is that it promotes inequality by helping the rich to get richer.
It is a widely believed myth. Former Coalition treasurer <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-policy/murdoch-criticises-central-bank-stimulus-20141017-119n1f" target="_blank">Joe Hockey</a> told the British Institute of Economic Affairs in 2014 that: "Loose monetary policy actually helps the rich to get richer. Why? Because we’ve seen rising asset values. Wealthier people hold the assets."
But it widens inequality no more than conventional monetary policy, and may not widen it at all if it is successful in maintaining sustainable economic growth.
A third myth is that it leads to excessive inflation or socialism.
In the US it has in fact been associated with some of the lowest inflation since the second world war. These days central banks are more likely to err on the side of creating too little inflation than too much.
Some have argued that QE in the US is to blame for the rise of left-wing populists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and “<a href="https://realconservativesunite.com/2019/03/07/ben-bernanke-the-father-of-extreme-us-socialism/" target="_blank">millennial socialism</a>”. But it is probably truer to say that their grievances grew out of too tight rather than too lose monetary policy.
QE has been road tested. We’ve little to fear from it, just as we have had little to fear from conventional monetary policy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118843/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Stephen Kirchner, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/below-zero-is-reverse-how-the-reserve-bank-would-make-quantitative-easing-work-118843" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How the Reserve Bank would make quantitative easing work

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The RBA have suggested that the there will be another cut later in the year.
"Financial market pricing implied that the cash rate target was expected to be lowered by 25 basis points at the present meeting, with a further 25 basis point reduction expected later in the year," the RBA said in their June 2019 meeting minutes.
"Given the amount of spare capacity in the labour market and the economy more broadly, members agreed that it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead."
The meeting minutes highlighted that the Coalition government win, paired with APRA's announcement that they will loosen their lending standards, will effect the housing market.
The RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in the June meeting minutes that it is too early to determine the overall effects, however he cited the auction clearance rates in Sydney "increasing noticeably following these developments."
"Members noted that the housing market was likely to be affected by the removal of uncertainty around possible changes to taxation arrangements relating to housing," Lowe said.
"They also considered the effects of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's (APRA's) proposal to amend its requirement for banks to determine the borrowing capacity of loan applicants using a specified minimum interest rate."
The RBA noted that building approvals declined further in April to be more than 20 percent lower over the preceding 12 months.
"This suggested that, even if there were a marked turnaround in housing sentiment, given the lags involved it would take some time for this to translate into higher residential construction activity," Lowe added.
Lowe said housing credit had stabilised in recent months, having slowed substantially over the preceding year.
One of the biggest segments the RBA were monitoring when considering cutting the official interest rate was the labour market.
"The data on conditions in the labour market in April had been mixed," Lowe said.
"Members noted the significant uncertainty around modelled estimates of the unemployment rate consistent with full employment.
"The unemployment rate had increased to 5.2 per cent in April from (an upwardly revised) 5.1 per cent in March.
"This followed a six-month period during which the unemployment rate had remained at around 5 per cent. 
"The increase in the unemployment rate had been accompanied by an increase in the participation rate to its highest level on record. 
To read the full minutes, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/minutes-of-june-2019-monetary-policy-meeting-of-the-reserve-bank-board">click here</a>.
 
 
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Further cash rate cut expected later in the year: RBA June 2019 meeting minutes

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Australian RMBS delinquency rates, which rose slightly over the three months ended 31 March 2019, will continue to increase over coming quarters, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
They believed arrears will rise because of high debt levels, the conversion of a large number of interest-only mortgages to principal and interest loans and declining house prices.
They suggested however that delinquency rates will only increase moderately, given stable GDP growth, low unemployment and recent interest rate cuts.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for prime Australian RMBS was 1.58% in March 2019, compared with 1.54% in December 2018 and 1.48% in March 2018.
For prime RMBS issued by major banks, the 30+ day delinquency rate was 1.75% in March 2019 compared with 1.72% in December 2018.
For regional banks, the delinquency rate was 1.65% in March 2019, unchanged from December 2018, while for prime RMBS issued by other authorised deposit-taking institutions, the delinquency rate was 0.54% in March 2019, compared with 0.50% in December 2018.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for non-conforming RMBS was 3.75% in March 2019, up from 3.23% in December 2018 and 3.05% in March 2018.
Alena Chen, Vice President of Moody’s said, "over coming quarters, we expect Australia's record-high household debt, which amounts to almost 200% of annual gross disposable income, will contribute to a moderate increase in delinquencies."
"Meanwhile, a large number of interest-only mortgages are due to convert to principal and interest loans by the end of 2020, which will cause some delinquencies over this period. Banks originated a significant volume of interest-only loans in 2014 and 2015," she said,
The five year interest-only period for these mortgages will end in 2019 and 2020.
When interest-only loans convert to principal and interest, borrowers have to make higher monthly repayments, which can lead to delinquencies.
Commonwealth Bank saw a rise in arrears in their <a href="/news/cba-arrears-rise-but-home-loan-book-continues-to-grow-slowly">March quarter results</a>.
Banks have already started trying to limit a large impact of moving mortgage holders from interest only to P&amp;I.
This time last year ANZ had 26 percent of their loan book made up of IO loans. They <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anzs-home-loan-portfolio-shows-big-drop-in-interest-only-borrowers">reduced that number to 18%</a> as of May.
NAB have an unhealthier <a href="/news/nab-housing-lending-revenue-continues-to-drop-and-shareholders-pay-the-price">26% of their loan book</a> given to interest-only loans.
Chen said Moody's expect house price declines to lead to a moderate increase in mortgage delinquencies over coming quarters."
"House prices in Australia declined by an average of 7.3% in the 12 months to 30 May 2019, while in Sydney and Melbourne, prices declined by an average of 10.7% and 9.9% respectively."
"We expect prices to continue to decline moderately over the remainder of 2019." she said.
Mortgage delinquencies will only increase moderately, while defaults and losses will remain low, given that continued GDP growth, low unemployment and recent interest rate cuts will support borrowers' ability to meet their mortgage repayments.
Moody's Investor Service forecast's real GDP growth of around 2.5% in both 2019 and 2020.
Australia's unemployment rate was 5.2% in April 2019 and they expect it will remain relatively stable at 5.5% by the end of 2019 and 2020.
In early June, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by 0.25 percentage point, which prompted most lenders to lower their floating-rate mortgage interest rates.
To see which banks decided to pass on the full rate cut, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/what-are-the-latest-home-loan-cuts-and-whos-making-them">click here</a>.
 
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Australian RMBS delinquency rates to keep rising: Moody's

Minutes of June 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the lead-up to the recent Federal election the Coalition announced the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.
The scheme will provide up to 10,000 loans to first home buyers each year and will offer first home buyers better access to finance without having to save a 20% deposit.
Additional details about the plan include: The Scheme will be available to eligible first home buyers who have been able to save for a deposit of at least 5% up to 20%. This will mean that eligible first home owners will be able to purchase their own home years earlier than they would normally be able to do.
Also, they would not be required to purchase lenders mortgage insurance saving them approximately $10,000. The lender would still undertake the full normal credit check process on the borrower (meeting all their legal obligations) to ensure that the borrower is in a position to be able to afford the repayments.
If the borrower refinances or the loan comes to an end the Commonwealth support will terminate. The Scheme will support low and middle income earners across Australia. Support would only be available to first home buyers below a certain capped income level which is $125,000, or $200,000 combined income for a couple who are both first home buyers.
The income test would be based on the previous year’s taxable income to provide certainty. Support will also be targeted to entry properties, with a maximum loan size determined on a regional basis, reflecting the different property markets across Australia.
The first home buyer will be able to use the Scheme in conjunction with the First Home Buyer Super Savers Scheme (FHSSS) and State or Territory first home buyer grants and duty concessions. The Scheme will commence on 1 January 2020 and will be operated by National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC).
Support for borrowers could include guaranteeing approved applicants the additional loan amount taken out by the first home buyer to cover the difference between the amount of the first home buyer's deposit and 20 per cent of the value of the property. While there aren’t a whole lot of details about the plan there are some important things to consider with this plan.
1. Over the past 10 years there has been an average of 103,485 first home buyer finance commitments per annum. Given this, only around 10% of first home buyers will be able to access this scheme. 2. A 20% deposit is not actually required to take out a mortgage. Buyers can borrow with less than a 20% deposit. If they choose to do so, LMI is either an additional upfront cost or amortised into the mortgage amount. LMI is not transferable so if you choose to refinance or sell and purchase but still have less than 20% equity, LMI will be payable again. 3. The borrower will still need to pass normal credit checks. Over the past four years or so it has become increasingly more difficult to access a mortgage and borrowers participating in this scheme will still need to pass the normal credit checks. Given this, the scheme, as proposed, is not going to result in anyone that currently can’t access a mortgage to take out a mortgage. What it will mean is that people that already qualify for a mortgage can potentially avoid LMI and they can also purchase with a smaller deposit.
The scheme is positive in that it allows first home buyers to borrow with a smaller deposit and without LMI. The benefit of this is they can potentially own a home earlier. From a housing affordability perspective it is difficult to see how this policy actually helps.
Given that borrowers still need to pass usual credit checks, the only people that will have access to the scheme are those that could already purchase any way. While the scheme will help borrowers enter the market earlier, it seems unlikely that it will do anything to improve housing affordability.
If anything, it might increase demand from first home buyers and lead to higher prices within the price points that fit with maximum loan sizes which have not yet been determined.
Some more strategic alternatives to improve housing affordability can be found on the supply side via town planning reforms to allow for higher densities in high demand areas, improving accessibility to affordable housing markets via infrastructure upgrades and re-thinking inefficient taxation transactional taxes such as stamp duty.
CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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