Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

Joel Robinson

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

The Gold Coast Planning Committee has supported the preliminary approval for the Benowa Gardens Urban Village project following an extensive community consultation and assessment process.

The proposal will now proceed to a full council vote on June 2.

The application sought approval for a masterplanned urban village on the existing Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre site, combining new housing, retail, dining, health and lifestyle amenities within a walkable, integrated precinct.&nbsp;

The proposed redevelopment includes around 413 apartments integrated above a revitalised mixed-use centre featuring a full-line supermarket of 4,000 sqm, 6,000 sqm of specialty retail and dining space across around 30 retailers, a 7,000 sqm health and wellness precinct, and roughly 9,630 sqm of office and medical suites.&nbsp;

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fb36ae47-80bc-45f0-9914-31b0c7b6007d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C4%201121%20FI.jpg?VersionId=6mRKk2uU4r67TmTt39DKGUlvFRbTVqWa" />

The broader masterplan also includes very significant traffic and transport improvements, wide pedestrian walkways, upgraded pedestrian and cycle connections, and enhanced public areas designed to create a more connected and walkable community environment.&nbsp;

Centre owner Patrick Lu said the milestone reflected months of detailed planning, technical assessment and ongoing communication with local residents, businesses, schools and stakeholders.

“We appreciate the time, consideration and care Council officers and the Planning Committee have given this proposal throughout the assessment process,” Lu said.

“We also sincerely thank the local community for engaging with us, sharing feedback and participating in the consultation process over many months.

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32fd1fc3-d0e6-485f-ac57-9916c9bcb818" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C5%201121%20FI_2.jpg?VersionId=fz8qQKDBLQ7MyFRc856Zccfbh9nFwLOe" />

“We understand projects of this scale bring questions and concerns, which is why we have worked hard to listen carefully, provide information transparently and continue refining elements of the proposal where possible.

“Our vision has always been to create a well-designed, community-focused urban village that responds to the changing needs of the Gold Coast, while delivering improved amenity, housing diversity, healthcare access and local lifestyle benefits.

“This proposal is about creating a genuine live-work-play environment where residents can access everyday services, schools, healthcare, dining, shopping and green space within walking distance, while also supporting local jobs and economic activity.”

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="50dfbd04-590e-4fc6-983b-766880947867" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Dining%20Day%20Time%20-%20High%20Resolution.jpg?VersionId=BP7ZoKJ0DdL_8iRkkC8VVx99moICV6kg" />

Lu said the proposal had evolved significantly through consultation and technical review, particularly around traffic, pedestrian and student safety and neighbourhood connectivity.&nbsp;

Melissa Griffin, Director at Urbis, said the recommendation recognised the strategic importance of delivering more housing and services within established urban areas already supported by infrastructure.

“This proposal represents the type of thoughtful, integrated growth that planning frameworks across South-East Queensland are encouraging,” Ms Griffin said.

“The project seeks to place housing, retail, healthcare and employment opportunities together in a highly accessible location close to schools, transport and existing services.

“Importantly, the process has involved significant technical assessment and community engagement to ensure local issues and feedback were properly considered throughout the planning pathway.”

$1 billion Benowa Gardens Urban Village heads to council vote following Planning Committee support

Surfers Paradise is officially set for its first new residential development with a 45-storey skybridge connecting the two towers.

John Camilleri’s Celestino Developments has been given the green light by the Gold Coast City Council to develop its major beachfront precinct across its huge 4,000 sqm oceanfront site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">63–79 Garfield Terrace</a>, just five months after its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-billionaire-winx-breeder-s-bold-two-tower-surfers-paradise-play-with-45th-storey-skybridge">submission in late 2025</a>.

The approved scheme will deliver two towers rising 55 and 48 storeys, connected by a skybridge positioned on level 45 that will house a range of resident-only wellness and entertainment spaces.

In its notice of approval, the Gold Coast City Council said the&nbsp;proposed overall built form has been designed to complement the scale, intensity and protect the adjacent amenity and surrounding streets through the use of varied setbacks, site cover and architectural elements.

<img alt="First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ADyPJ_TFbJvSU9wZFOiCBnlPtgF7VWqW" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, the development will comprise 275 apartments across the two towers, including a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, as well as several penthouses. The apartments will sit above a landscaped podium featuring more than 90 metres of beachfront pool frontage, private resident lawns, lounges, and wellness spaces.

DBI said the design draws heavily from the movement and form of the coastal environment, with curving balcony lines and sculpted façades intended to soften the scale of the towers while maximising ocean outlooks and passive shading outcomes.

“The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience,” DBI said in planning documents submitted to the Gold Coast City Council.

The most distinctive element of the approved project is the skybridge linking the two towers at level 45. The elevated communal space is planned to include executive lounges, formal dining areas, wellness facilities, and panoramic ocean-facing outlooks.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI said.

At podium level, residents will have access to a suite of resort-style amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a yoga lawn, gymnasium, plunge pools, and treatment spaces. The beachfront pool has been designed with separate lap, lounge, and children’s areas extending across the width of the site.

The project will also introduce new food and beverage offerings along the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages, contributing additional activation to the beachfront precinct.

First look: Winx billionaire’s beachfront Surfers Paradise apartment development greenlit

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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As any buyer of a home for $550,001 or more will attest to, stamp duty rates in Victoria are in need of revision. 
It will surprise most home buyers to know that if you purchase a home to live in for $550,001 rather than $550,000 then you will be forced pay an additional $3,100 in stamp duty. This is because the stamp duty payable on a home purchased for $550,000 is $24,970 and on a home purchased for $550,001 it is $28,070.
This anomaly dates back to 2007, when stamp duty rates were cut for homes lived in by the purchaser and valued under $550,001. Those purchased for a higher amount were subject to the older stamp duty scales.
There is no rational reason for this, and it seems unfair to penalise buyers who need to pay just a little bit more. To someone buying a new home, $3,100 could, for example, meet relocation costs or legal expenses.
It’s interesting that the distortion to the scales does appear to have created a high number of buyers at the $550,000 price point. In 2011 there were 418 buyers who paid $550,000 and avoided the extra $3,100 in stamp duty and only 28 who paid between $550,001 and $551,001. This, however, may simply be because $550,000 is a round number.
The REIV has campaigned to have stamp duty reduced; however, the unfair distortion of the tax scales at $550,000 shows that the rates could also easily be made fairer.
Enzo Raimondo is CEO of the <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/" target="_blank">Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>.
 
</body></html>

enzoraimond-7fvRFHPR52

When a dollar extra paid for property costs you $3,000 in tax

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In a not surprising (for readers of this column) attempt to politically pressure Australia's central bank, <a href="https://afr.com/p/national/pm_surplus_can_drive_down_rates_fjKXptC6sJlyBIDEPgt7YI" target="_blank">a major media outlet</a> reports today that the Prime Minister has broken with historical convention – for an incumbent government – and called on the RBA to lower interest rates given the government's mooted fiscal promises. This is after the current Labor government controversially took away the RBA board's pay-setting powers because it was too generous with the governor's salary package, replaced one independent (and hawkish) director with a manufacturing industry lobbyist who describes herself as a "growth girl" and an inflation "dove", and broke with long-term convention by replacing the board's standing independent academic expert (another hawk, Professor Warwick McKibbin, who had offered himself up for re-election) with a former advisor to a Labor prime minister, Paul Keating.  Some have also observed that while the current RBA governor contentiously hiked rates in the final month of the 2007 election campaign as the global financial crisis was brewing – an election that the Liberal Party lost that month – he did not touch rates during the subsequent 2010 campaign despite possessing a hawkish bias, waiting until November to raise them pointedly after Labor had scraped home with a hung parliament. In a panel interview with Bloomberg yesterday, the former RBA board member, McKibbin, described the government’s recent elections to the RBA board as "disconcerting". McKibbin advocated a board structure comprising of three RBA staffers (currently there are only two), three independent economics experts (currently there is one), and three "community representatives" with no politically appointed treasury secretary.  The <a href="https://afr.com/p/national/pm_surplus_can_drive_down_rates_fjKXptC6sJlyBIDEPgt7YI" target="_blank">Australian Financial Review</a> reports that today: “Prime Minister Julia Gillard will aggressively link her budget ­surplus goal directly to lower interest rates, saying that the Reserve Bank of Australia has “plenty of room” to cut its 4.25% cash rate... Her speech to business leaders in Perth will also make the case for a reweighting of monetary policy which could help push down the ­Australian dollar and provide relief to manufacturers, exporters and the tourist industry. In effect putting the political success of next month’s budget into the hands of the Reserve Bank board, Ms Gillard will say that the large ­interest rate differential between ­Australia and offshore markets gives the RBA “plenty of room to move ­further if need be”. The Prime Minister is quoted apparently calling on Australia's central bank to re-focus on its antediluvian 1959 mandate, which requires it to give equal weight to employment, growth and price stability. Since that time, however, the treasurer of the day and the governor of the RBA have signed a total five "<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-5-30092010" target="_blank">Statements on the Conduct of Monetary Policy</a>" documents that explicitly subordinate the employment and growth goals in the 1959 Act to allow the RBA to focus mainly on one medium-term objective: price stability. Specifically, the latest statement signed by Wayne Swan and Glenn Stevens says (emphasis added): "Since the early 1990s, inflation targeting has formed the basis of Australia's monetary policy framework. Since 1996, this framework has been formalised in a Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. The inflation targeting framework has served Australia well and is reaffirmed in the current statement...  [The three objectives outlined by the 1959 Act] allow the Reserve Bank board to focus on price (currency) stability while taking account of the implications of monetary policy for activity and, therefore, employment in the short term. Price stability is a crucial precondition for sustained growth in economic activity and employment. Both the Reserve Bank and the government agree on the importance of low inflation and low inflation expectations...[and] on the objective of keeping consumer price inflation between 2 and 3%, on average, over the cycle." In today's speech the Prime Minister seems to confuse these priorities. Without having the benefit of the first-quarter inflation results, which are expected to be benign, or revisions to the 2011 inflation numbers, the Prime Minister advocates the employment and growth benefits of lower rates with inflation-targeting added as an after-thought:  “In the current economic environment, should the RBA consider it appropriate to change the cash rate, this could deliver widespread benefits for households and business – noting that a number of sectors of the economy most under strain are arguably more sensitive to interest rates...This is fully consistent with the Reserve Bank’s charter obligations to best contribute to economic prosperity and full employment, as well as containing inflation.” One problem for the RBA is, as McKibbin explained yesterday, that the current government's forecasts and commitments to fiscal contraction are already accounted for in the central bank's analysis (since Treasury have always projected a steep fiscal consolidation following a fiscal stimulus that McKibbin believes was twice as large as it needed to be) and are, in any event, merely political promises. At the invitation-only Bloomberg conference, McKibbin argued that the RBA would be far more focused on what policies the government actually delivers given its history of missing commitments. He also suggested that it was unreasonable to ask the RBA to make decisions today on the basis of assumed budget outcomes before it had the benefit of both seeing what is promised on the May 8 and what the government ultimately delivers.
Christopher Joye is a leading financial economist and a director of <a href="https://www.ybr.com.au/savings/index.cfm">Yellow Brick Road Funds Management</a> and Rismark. The above article is not investment advice.
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Australian Prime Minister politicises the RBA – again: Christopher Joye

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Generation Y are savvy and sceptical and make up nearly half of the nation’s first-home buyers, according to QBE Insurance’s mortgage report.
The LMI Barometer found that 45% of the first-home buyers it surveyed are under 30 years old, and many borrow money family to help them onto the property ladder. In fact, 20% of this group lives at home while saving, which is up from 18% last year.
While dedicated saving is how 91% of first-time buyers gather their deposits, one in 10 confess to raising money through loans from parents. Indeed, 20% of this group has a guarantor for their loan – usually their parents.
The LMI Barometer found that 41% of first-home buyers have a household income of between $100,000 and $200,000. As a sector, they are also motivated to lenders with low deposit requirements.
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“The average deposit for first home buyer respondents is $60,821, which takes 4.7 years to save and is well below the overall average deposit of $101,767,” the study found.
They are also more pessimistic than other groups, and 83% consider property to be overvalued, which includes 50% who think prices are ‘significantly overvalued’.
But the cynicism does not dampen enthusiasm to spend, with 44% of this group aiming to have bought a property in 12 months. On average Gen Y first-home buyers will borrow $372,259. On their way to that purchase, they do better research and rely on external advice more than other market segments surveyed.
More than half of the first-time buyers’ respondents believe that property prices will be stable or higher in 2012, which is down from the 73% who believed the same in 2011.
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“First-home buyers have a fairly bullish outlook on property over the medium term, with 52% agreeing property prices will increase strongly over the next three years. This is ahead of the national average of 42%,” the report says.
Possibly due to fears about rising property prices, 39% of this group thinks it is more important to enter the market now rather than save for a bigger deposit.
 
 
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Gen Y first-home buyers pessimistic about house prices but eager to get into the market: QBE LMI survey

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A fundamental truism of economics is that if you tax something, you get less of it. Tax is thus a good place to start in seeking to explain why Australia’s housing market is chronically under-supplied, with adverse implications for housing affordability.
Many commentators have argued that housing is tax advantaged because of the principal residence exemption from capital gains tax. They see the exemption as a source of increased demand for housing and a negative influence on housing affordability rather than a boost to housing supply.
This leads to the incorrect conclusion that housing affordability could somehow be improved by abolishing the principal residence exemption and other tax concessions. For example, journalist George Megalogenis has written that “housing can only become more affordable if prices stop rising… It can only be done by making property less attractive than other investments, such as shares or superannuation… bricks-and-mortar should lose its taxpayer supports.”
The Henry Tax Review was commendable for rejecting the view that saving via owner-occupied housing should be taxed. The Henry Review favoured an expenditure tax benchmark that exempts the returns to saving from tax, including saving via housing. The final report’s recommendation that saving via owner-occupied housing remain tax-exempt was explicitly based on this benchmark. The final report also recommended that the returns to other forms of saving, including capital gains on other assets and net residential income and losses, should enjoy a 40% tax discount.
The Henry tax review made clear that the problem with Australia’s tax system is not that saving via housing is taxed too lightly, but that other forms of saving are taxed too heavily. The principal residence exemption from capital gains tax is in fact model tax policy based on an expenditure tax benchmark.
Henry’s suggested move to a 40% savings income discount is designed, among other things, to remove “the current bias towards negatively geared investment in rental property and shares.” However, this recommendation was made subject to the important proviso that supply-side constraints in the housing market need to be tackled first and that phase-in arrangements should apply to minimise disruption to the housing market.
The final report noted that “changing the taxation of investment properties could have an adverse impact in the short to medium term on the housing market… reducing net rental losses and capital gains tax concessions may in the short-term reduce residential property investment. In a market facing supply constraints, these reforms could place further pressure on the availability of affordable rental accommodation.”
The pre-occupation of many commentators with the principal residence exemption from capital gains tax and negative gearing has diverted attention from the fact that housing in Australia, far from being supported by the tax system, is in fact very heavily taxed. A recent report by private consultancy, the Centre for International Economics (CIE), “<a target="_blank" href="https://hia.com.au/media/Industry-policy/~/media/Files/documents/CIE%20Tax%20Report.ashx">Taxation of the Housing Sector in Australia</a>,” prepared for the Housing Industry Association, quantifies the tax burden and its adverse implications for housing affordability.
The tax burden on new housing includes direct taxes such as the goods and services tax, stamp duty, land tax and council rates, as well as a variety of indirect taxes on inputs into housing and hidden taxes that arise from the planning and approvals process. CIE estimate that these taxes account for 44% of the purchase price of a representative new home in Sydney or around $267,879. Most of the burden of these taxes falls on home buyers and not home builders because the demand side of the housing market is less price sensitive than the supply-side.
The tax burden on housing also accounts for much of the financing cost of a new home and thus the burden of mortgage debt and associated interest payments. The cost of financing the tax component of the price of a new house in Sydney is equivalent to 33% of the after-tax income of a young couple aged between 24 and 35 on average wages. The burden is even higher in the first year when stamp duty is paid, accounting for a staggering 72% of after-tax income.
Australia’s under-supplied housing market and housing affordability problem is largely due to the tax burden on housing. Abolishing the principal residence exemption from capital gains tax and negative gearing would only add to this tax burden and further reduce housing supply.
Substantial gains in the efficiency of the tax system and housing affordability could be achieved through the substitution of more efficient taxes such as the goods and services tax for inefficient taxes on residential property. CIE estimate that replacing taxes on housing with a broadening of the GST base could increase GDP by around 2% and increase residential construction by 14%, providing a much needed boost to housing supply.
The main obstacle to a reform of this type is the dependence of state and local governments on residential property taxes, accounting for around 40% of their total revenues. This points to the need for a federal-state compact on tax reform that finances the abolition of inefficient taxes on residential property through changes in the GST rate or base. State and federal governments unwilling to consider such a compact are not serious about addressing housing affordability.
The solution to Australia’s housing affordability problem is to build more and cheaper houses. This can only be achieved by easing the tax burden on housing and not through the abolition of existing tax concessions.
Dr Stephen Kirchener is a senior lecturer ineconomics at the University of Technology Sydney Business School and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies. 
This article originally appeared on <a target="_blank" href="https://theconversation.edu.au/">The Conversation</a>.
 
 
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How taxing housing diminishes affordability

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Following a raft of economic data that has come out recently I felt it was important to reflect on this data.  It is obvious that the Reserve Bank  is currently in a very tough predicament. While much of the data is proving to be quite negative and providing a clear case for interest rate cuts, every now and then other pieces of data highlight that perhaps things aren’t so bad.  Most notable of these data releases was the labour force data. Despite most economists expecting an increase to the unemployment rate, it remained at 5.2% and the participation rate actually increased.
As most people will know, official interest rates are currently sitting at 4.25%.  Now over the past 20 years, the cash rate has sat at an average of 5.15%, much higher than its current setting.  Although the cash rate is at above-average levels, standard variable mortgage rates are sitting at 7.4%, which is fairly close to the 20-year average level (7.35%).  In recent years the major banks have sought to de-couple mortgage rates from official interest rates.  As a result, we now have a situation where the official cash rate is almost 100 basis points below the long-term average however; mortgage rates are sitting at average levels.  As a result, the amount by which the RBA is able to influence repayments on our largest asset class (housing) has been lessened over recent years.
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Looking at the RBA website, its official role is detailed at this <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/our-role">link</a>.  A lot of the data suggests that we are pretty close to full employment and that we still enjoy economic prosperity and welfare.  However, many would argue that the current high currency is providing instability. In its agreement with federal government the RBA is also charged with keeping inflation between 2% and 3% over the economic cycle.
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So looking at inflation and keeping in mind new data will be out later this month, headline inflation is currently recorded at an annual rate of 3%.  The RBA’s preferred measures of ‘underlying inflation’, the trimmed mean and weighted median are both well within the target range, recorded at 2.6%.  The most recent data available shows that headline inflation is at the top end of the target range (but it is falling) and underlying inflation is right around the middle of the band. 
Obviously the RBA is concerned about inflation and with good reason.  Glenn Stevens was made governor of the RBA in September 2006 and since December 2006, headline inflation has been recorded at an average of 3%, right at the top of the target band.  More concerning is the fact that the RBA’s preferred measures have been recorded at an average of 3.2% (trimmed mean) and 3.5% (weighted median).  Given this, it is no real wonder that the RBA decided not to cut interest rates this month. The RBA’s track record of hitting their inflation target has not been strong, and it wants to be as sure as possible before making any decision.
As I see it, it is fairly clear cut that another interest rate cut is required to help the economy, particularly if you take just a quick look at some of the recent negative economic data releases:
<ol>
<li>GDP – Australia’s economy continues to grow however, it is growing below the long-term trend</li>
<li>Property values – despite a stabilization over the first quarter of 2012, they are down -4.4% over the year</li>
<li>Consumer sentiment – the index continues to fall with pessimism outweighing optimism and the index is -10.2% lower than at the same time last year.</li>
<li>Business conditions – improving but still not particularly strong</li>
<li>Building approvals – continue to weaken and are -15.2% lower than they were at the same time last year</li>
<li>Housing finance data:<ol>
<li>When refinances are removed the value of finance commitments has risen by just 1.7% over the past year</li>
<li>The number of non-refinance commitments remains at low levels and has increased by just 3.6% over the year</li>
<li>Retail trade – remains quite sluggish having increased by just 2.0% over the past year</li>
<li>Growth in demand for credit by the private sector remains benign:<ol>
<li>Total credit has risen by just 3.5% over the past year</li>
<li>Housing credit has risen at an historic low rate of 5.3% over the year</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>
Of course, times have changed in the Australian economy; consumers are saving again and credit isn’t as freely available as it used to be.  Although the Australian economy hasn’t entered into a recession it certainly seems that our mind set has changed and we are at least trying to be less reliant on borrowed money.  What that is likely to mean is that property values, building approvals, housing finance, retail trade and credit demand will grow at levels lower than those we have become accustomed to.  In saying this, just because the consumer mindset has changed it doesn’t mean we have to have a recession.
In my mind, we will see an interest rate cut next month as long as inflation is within the target range.  However, I don’t envy the RBA’s position, although a lot of the economic data looks bad they have been caught out before.  The significant growth in the mining sector is boosting the overall economy, the unfortunate thing being that most of us aren’t reaping these benefits.  Factors such as falling property values and lower levels of construction feed back in to consumers showing less inclination to spend which in-turn feeds back in to lower levels of consumer and business sentiment.  If we aren’t careful it could also lead to higher levels of unemployment and lower levels of economic growth or even a recession.
Let me know what you think. Was the RBA right to leave interest rates on hold and do you think it will do so again next month?
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at<a target="_blank" href="https://www.rpdata.com.au/"> RP Data</a>.
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The RBA is in a real bind on interest rate movements: RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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John Symond of Aussie Home Loans has given tentative support to the proposed scheme that would allow first-home buyers to pay off their stamp duty over three years rather than in one upfront lump sum.
The Real Estate Institute of NSW (REINSW) <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/tax/pay-as-you-go-stamp-duty-scheme-needed-for-first-home-buyers-reinsw/2012041654290" target="_blank">is urging the state government to allow first-home buyers to gradually pay off their stamp duty</a>.
But Symond says while the proposed scheme looked good on paper that young first-home buyers needed to vigilantly do their sums.
"I think you've got to be careful. Young, inexperienced buyers can easily get over their heads," he told News Limited.
"Australians have traditionally been better borrowers than savers. If first-home buyers have the possibility to repay it in time then great, but I wouldn't like to see it impede young people ... by just deferring the inevitable."
Australian Mortgage Options founder Robert Projeski<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/tax/stamp-duty-lay-by-scheme-could-help-first-time-buyers-get-into-the-market-robert-projeski/2012041754322" target="_blank"> has also backed the proposal</a>.
 
 
 
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

John Symond tentatively backs REINSW stamp duty deferral proposal for first-home buyers

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Victorian borrowers feel more comfortable about their level of long-term debt than borrowers in the other states and territories, according the ING Household Financial Wellbeing Index.
Victorian borrowers scored 5.8 out of seven in this category, up from 5.5 a year ago.
A score of one indicates “very uncomfortable” and a seven indicates “very comfortable”.
Victoria scored above the national average of 5.5 and higher than NSW/ACT (5.6 up from 5.4 a year ago), Queensland (5.6 up from 5.4) and WA (5.6 up from 5.4).
South Australians feel least comfortable about their level of mortgage debt, with a comfort rating of 5.4. It is the only state to record a decline in mortgage comfort, down from 5.5 a year ago.
Victoria has the lowest percentage of borrowers (34%) paying extra on their mortgages, with the highest proportion found in WA and Queensland (46% paying extra on their mortgages).
Overall borrowers are more comfortable with their level of mortgage debt than they were a year ago, with the national index rising from 5.4 to 5.6.
The survey, which is based on the responses of 1,015 households between March 27 and April 2, 2012, found that the vast majority (93%) of households are comfortable with their home loan, with 63% “very comfortable” – the highest level recorded since the third quarter of 2010.
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Four out of 10 (40%) mortgage holders are paying off their loan ahead of schedule, according to the survey.
The survey found that nearly a third (31%) of households have share market investments (up from 24% in the fourth quarter), while more than half (51%) of households have no assets or investments outside of the family home.
The median value of total assets in each household (including equity in the family home) is $306,993.
One in five (21%) households say that they don’t have any investments or assets at all.
Long-term assets remains a weak spot of financial wellbeing, with 28% of households saying they are “very uncomfortable” with their level of investments and long-term assets, down from 31% in the fourth quarter of last year.
Nationally however there has been a slight increase in the numbers of households owning long-term investments – 17% own a rental property, up from 15% three months ago, and 31% hold sharemarket investments, up from 24%.
The overall Household Financial Wellbeing Index reached 106.9 in the first quarter of 2012 up from 105.6 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Although this is below the reading of 107.5 achieved on inception of the index in the first quarter of 2010, it confirms an ongoing uptrend in financial wellbeing since the index plunged in the first quarter of 2011.
 
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Victorian borrowers most comfortable with level of mortgage debt: ING Household Financial Wellbeing Index

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The Real Estate Institute of NSW has proposed several options to the state government in order to encourage first-home buyers into the market. One such scheme would allow first time buyers to pay off their stamp duty over a three-year period, making it less costly for them at the time of purchase, if adopted.

Since the laps of the stamp-duty waver for first-home buyers at the end of last year, many would-be first timers have been stalled in order to save up to meet their stamp duty obligation, resulting in a drop in first home buyer activity since.

Marketing consultant Michael Willcocks, 28, who missed out on the stamp duty relief late last year could envision getting into a property much sooner, should a stamp-duty ‘lay-by’ scheme be put in place. 

“It would cut out several months of saving up the stamp duty and get me into a property sooner,” he says. 

With housing affordability a pressing issue for first-time buyers, such a scheme would reduce the initial cost of getting into a property by spreading this out over 36 months. The adoption of a stamp-duty ‘lay-by’ scheme would surely encourage more first-time buyers to get into the market. 

Currently, there is only the original $7,000 federally-supplied first-home owners’ grant on offer, which applies only to pre-existing properties and therefore does not push for the construction of new dwellings. 

We already have a housing shortage in Australia, which is expected to fall short by over 150,000 dwellings by the year 2020, going by figures released by the Housing Industry Association last year. 

Setting out schemes that drive construction of new homes and encourages new buyers into the market would benefit both the construction and real estate industry.

Other schemes presented to the state government by the REINSW look at concessions for buyers over 65 in an aim to make it easier for them to down-size their homes.

Introducing new legislation that works toward the reduction of our housing shortage, increases affordability and hence home ownership, combined with further interest rate cuts would create an up-swing that would strengthen the property market and our economy.



Robert Projeski is a leading property finance expert and the founder and managing director of <a target="_blank" href="https://%20www.amo.com.au">Australian Mortgage Options</a>. He has appeared on radio and TV and written extensively on property and finance matters.


 
 

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Stamp duty ‘lay-by’ scheme could help first-time buyers get into the market

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Aussie Home Loans executive chairman John Symond has warned a standard 0.25 percentage point easing by the RBA at its May meeting would not be enough, given the banks have lifted home loan rates since the last cash rate cut in December.
“We have a situation where since Christmas we have had two increases by the banks out of cycle. So, 25 basis points is just playing catch-up for the punter,” Symond suggests.
“If the Reserve Bank wants to make a difference and instil confidence, they now have to go more than 25 basis points and go 50 basis points,” Fairfax Media reported Symond as saying today.
Last month the Aussie Home Loans founder said the RBA was “a bit out of touch by not accepting that parts of the economy, especially small businesses, is doing it really tough at the moment”.
“As well as the Australian economy has performed relative to other economies, we could easily get into the situation where the economy could stall,” warned Symond.
“We need an injection of good news and an injection of confidence – the best way to do that is to start dropping interest rates.”
 
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John Symond says only 50-basis-point RBA interest rate reduction will cut it for borrowers

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The minutes of the April RBA board meeting have strengthened the case for a rate cut at the May 1 meeting, according to Westpac.
“We are confident that the RBA will deliver a 0.25% rate cut on May 1," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans suggests, based on his expectations that the underlying first quarter 2012 inflation data, due for release April 24, will be 0.6% for the quarter and 2.3% for the year, down from 2.5% in quarter four in 2011.
Westpac suggests the data could provide the RBA with ample scope to cut rates again in June or July given the sentiment of the minutes particularly in recognising the sharp regional and sectoral differences in the economy and the likely impact of a significant fiscal tightening.
The minutes gave a number of additions to the bank's insights around the current economic environment, the Westpac chief economist notes.
“Firstly, stronger emphasis is given to the divergences between sectors and regions in the economy.
“Whereas the governor referred to ‘differences’ these minutes refer to ‘sharp differences’,” Evans notes.
The analysis of the minutes by Westpac also noted there was recognition that "the level of non-mining investment had been flat over 2011, and recent surveys of business intentions suggested that non-mining investment was likely to remain sluggish for some time".
Noting the RBA members spent some time exploring reasons for the weakness in many of the indicators for housing turnover and building activity, Westpac concluded the minutes did not go so far as to question why there appears to have been only muted response to the recent rate cuts.
“But one can sense some degree of frustration in the likely discussion,” Evans says.
Westpac also suggests the RBA attitude towards the labour market appears to have become more realistic.
“In previous discussions the emphasis has been around the unemployment rate alone whereas the board now points out that "an easing in average hours worked and a decline in the participation rate were indicative of a softer labour market than that implied by the unemployment rate".
Evans was also encouraged to see that the board had made special note of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of unemployment expectations by noting that "household concerns regarding future unemployment (were) at their highest level since mid-2009".
“Probably the most surprising aspect of these minutes was the direct comment on fiscal policy,” Evans says.
“The bank specifically points out that economic conditions will be impacted by ‘significant fiscal tightening in the next few years’.
“Despite the government indicating the intention to return the budget to surplus from a deficit of around $40 billion we cannot recall the bank specifically referring to fiscal tightening in previous statements.”
“The message from the governor's statement on April 3 was that there was scope to cut rates as long as the inflation report indicated that inflation pressures remained benign.
“This message has been repeated with the additional dimension of indicating that slower growth could be expected to result in a more moderate inflation outcome.”
Finally, Bill Evans notes there was an extensive discussion at the April RBA board meeting on the funding costs of banks.
“The importance of term deposits to the banks' overall funding profile has been emphasised.
“Recall that the bank has noted that ‘since the middle of 2011 there has been a further increase in banks' funding costs relative to the cash rate of the order of 20-25bps’.”
Westpac notes that the mismatch was explained in terms of the general principle that the RBA cash rate had become a less important influence on the banks' funding costs due to competition for deposits and the increased costs of term funding.
 
 
 
 
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