<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Ask a homeowner how long it took them to fill out their home loan or refinancing applications and, chances are, you’ll get an exasperated “12 hours” as a response – even when the reality is more like two hours.      
The way Australian consumers interact with the property market is shifting, with savvy consumers looking for new ways to get on and climb up the property ladder. But one thing that never seems to change is the ‘grudge’ element of the application process, or the anxiety that a home loan can bestow on a household.
Navigating the shifting lending landscape
Housing affordability is a top concern for most Australians, second only to cost of living and health and ageing. Three quarters (75%) of consumers say home ownership feels more difficult than 10 years ago, and 59% expect it to be even more difficult in another 10 years.
This concern is understandable in the face of harsher scrutiny of financial liabilities, more stringent income and expenditure requirements and stricter credit criteria from banks and lenders. And the anxiety of buying or refinancing doesn’t end when homeowners get their loan approved – consumers are bombarded everyday with so many offers, deals and financial life hacks that it’s almost impossible for them to be sure they’re on the best rate.
As the dreams of owning, renovating or upsizing a home become more challenging, consumers are looking to looking for alternative financial partners, who are keeping in step with the shifting lending landscape and offering innovative new products, more flexibility and competitive rates. 
These partners are increasingly non-bank lenders (online lenders, neobanks and credit unions) with better fees, lower rates and a more personalised service compared to established mortgage lenders, who are failing to keep up with changing consumer needs.
 How are customers forging the future of home ownership?
The reality is, everyday families have always been underserviced – becauseof their geographical location, not having the levels of wealth that demand personal attention, or simply because their broker or lender doesn’t contact them regularly enough. Unfortunately for this group of consumers, while they’ve been largely ignored by their banks and lenders, they’ve also been wasting a collective $4bn a year on unnecessary home loan interest payments.
The only way to level the playing field is for the consumer to take back control. Consumers who have stayed on the same loan for years are being hardest hit by the ‘loyalty tax’, while new or more proactive customers are offered more attractive loans. This group would greatly benefit from refinancing – but most people don’t have the time, knowledge or energy to monitor the markets every day to make sure they’re still getting the best deal.
This is where technology comes into play. The advent of fintech has not only started levelling the playing field, it’s also made homeowners more aware of what they’re missing out on. Slowly but surely, uno is seeing consumers trying to take a more active role, refinancing more often and trying to counteract their financial anxiety.
This is a huge task for consumers to take on alone. Luckily, they don’t have to. uno’s loanScore tool, for example, gives consumers free access to the same kind of service a personal banker would provide – assessing their loans in real time, letting them know where they stand and making it easier to act when they’re ready. Essentially removing the anxiety of not knowing whether you’re on the right deal, for the entire life of the loan.
For established players, ignoring the changing attitudes and behaviours of consumers won’t remain an option for long. For new entrants, opportunities abound.  
Anthony Justice is the CEO of <a href="https://loanscore.unohomeloans.com.au/" target="_blank">uno Home Loans</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Levelling the home loan playing field: Uno Home Loans

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The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board give us no significant reason to change our view that the next rate cut will occur in February.
While some forecasters have been promoting the idea of a move in December, these minutes provide the flavour of a Board that is in no hurry to make the next cut.
The minutes conclude that “the Board would continue to monitor developments”. It also referred to “having already delivered a substantial monetary stimulus in recent months, there was a case to wait and assess the effects of this stimulus, especially given the long and variable lags”.
Nevertheless, the minutes do not want to leave the reader in any doubt that the Board continues to have a clear easing bias.
The minutes concluded that the Board “was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed” and also noted that “members reviewed the case for a further reduction at the present meeting”.
The second important issue around the policy outlook is the “effective lower bound” (ELB) of the cash rate.
Westpac has argued since July that the ELB will prove to be 0.50% and will be reached in February 2020. One factor that has been important to our thinking has been the response of the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment index to the rate cuts that began in June 2019.
The index has been on a clear downward trend since and the Board has recognised that by noting that “a further reduction in interest rates could have a different effect on confidence than in the past”. Put another way, the Board “recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence”.
On the other hand, the Board was informed that it appears that Banks still have adequate scope to pass on future rate cuts. The minutes noted that “while close to a quarter of deposits were estimated to be earning interest at rates between 0-50bps, most deposits earned interest at rates over 1%”.
The Banks’ response to the cumulative 75bp reduction in the cash rate was to lower interest on at-call retail deposits by an average of 60-70bps.
As noted above, this reduction in deposit rates is affecting the confidence of savers, whereas the data also showed that borrowers had been repaying existing loans at a faster pace. This observation puts one of the most important channels of monetary policy, a boost to spending from the increased cash flows of borrowers, at some risk.
In our preview to these minutes, we were hopeful that the minutes might cast some light on the sentence in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), “the Board was mindful that rates were already very low, and that each further cut brings closer the point at which other policy options might come into play”.
The issue here is whether these “other policy options” refer to unconventional monetary policy, fiscal policy, or both. It is most likely “both”. So more details on the unconventional side would have been helpful. The Governor is speaking on “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from Overseas” on November 26.
No doubt, he will cast some light on his thinking in that speech. It is also the last day before the blackout for the December RBA Board meeting.
If he wanted to signal to the market that the very disappointing labour force and wages reports from last week, which printed after the November Board meeting, had swayed his thinking towards a December move, that speech would be the time. However, we would be very surprised, given the earlier discussion about these minutes, to see such a move from the Governor.
The November Board meeting also discusses the Staff’s revised growth outlook. As we noted in the discussion of the SMP, there were very few changes in the RBA’s forecasts. The RBA continues to forecast trend growth (2.8%) in 2020, and above-trend growth (3.1%) in 2021.
Westpac is forecasting 2.4% growth in 2020, with the major differences being around the outlook for business investment and dwelling construction. In fact, the minutes highlight that the RBA remains uncertain about the pace of recovery in the dwelling cycle with one of the key factors being the impact of rising prices in the established market on new construction.
Commentary around the international outlook continues to point to risks being tilted to the downside. However, a key reason justifying the decision not to move in November was around the “decline in pessimism” which had been signalled by global financial markets.
A further reason to delay any more cuts is to await outcomes for the global economy, with the developments around the US-China trade conflict being front of mind.
Conclusion
The case for a December rate cut is heavily downplayed in these minutes, although, as discussed, the meeting occurred before the disappointing wages and employment prints from last week.
We certainly do not believe that those prints will be sufficient to move the RBA away from its current “monitoring” approach and so confirm our forecast that the next cut will occur in February 2020.
The discussion around the impact of low rates on confidence is clearly very significant and gives some support to our view that 0.5% will be the effective lower bound of the cash rate in this cycle. 
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2019/2019-11-05" target="_blank">Read the full RBA Minutes</a>.
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BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
 
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA minutes signal that the Board is in "monitoring" mode: Bill Evans

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Today we have run with three charts - Australian dwelling completions, commencements and approvals. The point of this is to illustrate that the current rate cuts are not going to be a job creator for the Australian housing construction industry anytime soon. Naturally it may help other parts of the economy. But not housing construction. To be clear the process of building a property starts at the approval stage. Once approved, building construction commencements normally occur between 6 to 18 months after approvals. And then finally, completions normally occur 18 months to 3 years after approvals.
 
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/d0a5d23c-7109-4a61-9e45-e2a75ad4aee2.png">
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/c2e4fa2e-a581-4020-941d-0f5835b9a3e2.png">
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/69a3110b-3f74-4a58-843a-93ff0600815e.png">
Dwelling completions are only peaking now and so there are a whole bunch of projects that are on the verge of completion. Normally once a project is completed, workers move onto the next project. But as we can see on the commencements chart, there are now less commencements than completions. And so there is less work available, meaning more job losses are coming. To make matters worse, building approvals are still tracking south and are considerably lower than commencements. This means even more housing construction job losses are on the way over the course of 2020 and likely, 2021. This will happen despite the interest rate cuts, tax cuts and easier lending standards. As the building approvals illustrate, there has been no response as yet in the form of higher demand for new housing. The real jobs creation phase, where there are labourers and contractors on the ground, naturally happens at the commencements phase and gets slowly wound down as the building gets closer to completion. So with the fall off in building approvals, housing construction is going to be a detraction to GDP for many months to come. This must be quite the concern for the RBA and for the Federal Government for that matter. As you may have guessed, housing construction is not an insignificant proportion of total employment. The RBA places it at just under 6%. The last time this occurred was back in 2011 to 2013. However the country still had the mining boom as a major job creator at that time. For now, mining investment seems to have bottomed out and will moderately pick up over the next 12 to 24 months, therefore taking some of the slack. But no one is expecting a massive uplift in mining. There is of course infrastructure and that may help to an extent. Apparently for FY20 some $13 billion dollars has been estimated to be spent on Infrastructure which should at least keep climbing through to 2023. By comparison, there was some $42 billion dollars’ worth of dwellings approved over the 12 months to September 2019. Infrastructure better help with the offset. And perhaps with mining added, it will. The RBA is forecasting the unemployment rate to fall to 5% by 2021. But no-one really knows for sure. Let’s hope they are right. Otherwise Australian unemployment is going to keep rising in 2020 and that won’t be good for anyone.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research.
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louischristopher-TWpYcZDLBK

Current rate cuts aren't going to be a job creator for housing construction: SQM's Louis Christopher

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Demand for housing credit by investors remained subdued, the RBA noted in their minutes for the November meeting where they left the official cash rate on hold at a record low 0.75 per cent.
"Despite the stronger-than-expected pick-up in established housing markets, there had been little evidence of a lift in the early stages of residential development activity, RBA Governor Philip Lowe suggested in the minutes.
He added that risks in the near term to growth from dwelling investment were tilted to the downside, although then went on to make mention of the decline in building approvals, down over 20 per cent over the year.
"Liaison with industry participants suggested that the recent improvement in housing market conditions had not yet translated into stronger sales for new housing," Lowe said.
He said that a larger-than-expected contraction in dwelling investment could delay the gradual improvement in GDP growth.
"Members noted that the recent strengthening in housing market conditions would support building activity in time.
"The lagged response to higher housing prices and a period of low building activity had raised the likelihood that dwelling investment would be stronger in the medium term than currently expected."
Lowe cited the increase in housing loan approvals, which had risen strongly since May, largely driven by owner-occupiers.
"Members noted that there was strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality," Lowe said, although added that despite the competition, the pace of growth in housing credit for owner-occupiers had picked up only slightly, while the stock of housing credit for investors had continued to decline a little.
<h1>Rebounding Markets</h1>
There were further mentions of the rebounding Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, with Brisbane now mentioned in the same breathe.
Lowe said conditions in Brisbane had "firmed", although noted housing conditions remained weak in Perth and Darwin.
"In Sydney and Melbourne, housing prices had been on an upward trajectory since June, the number of auctions had increased and auction clearance rates had been at relatively high levels.
<h1>Borrowing Rates</h1>
Lowe said a large share of the recent monetary policy easing had been passed through to mortgage rates, but cited the lack of movement from the banks following the October cut.
"Borrowing rates for households and businesses were at historic lows," Lowe said.
"After passing through most of the June and July cash rate cuts to standard variable mortgage rates (SVRs), financial institutions had passed through less of the October rate cut, bringing the total reduction in SVRs since June to around 60 basis points.
"Strong competition for high-quality borrowers had led to rates for new and refinanced loans being lower than for existing loans.
"In addition, borrowers were continuing to switch from interest-only loans to lower-rate principal-and-interest loans.
"This meant that average outstanding mortgage rates had declined by around 65 basis points since the middle of the year. This process was expected to continue."
 
 
 
 
 
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Demand for credit by property investors remains subdued: RBA November minutes

Brisbane housing market conditions firm as Sydney and Melbourne continue to strengthen: RBA November minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The latest ABS data on new housing credit showed a sharp rise in the value of home loan commitments, driven by a surge in owner occupier lending as well as a smaller rise in investment lending.
The rise in the value of owner occupier housing finance commitments over the September quarter (+12.1%) was the fastest quarter-on-quarter gain since the September quarter of 2015 (13.7%), taking the value of new owner occupier home loan commitments 17.3% higher since bottoming out in May earlier this year.
Growth in investment lending hasn’t been quite as strong, however the value of investment loan commitments was up 6.0% over the September quarter, which was the fastest gain since the December quarter of 2016.
The value of investment loan commitments is now 8.4% higher than the May 2019 trough.
With owner occupier credit outpacing investment credit, investors now comprise the lowest portion of housing loan commitments since the ABS records commence in 2003, currently tracking at 24.8% of the value of new mortgage commitments.
In contrast, shortly after the first round of macro-prudential rules were introduced in December 2014, investors comprised 43% of national mortgage demand. The trends in housing credit are similar across the states, with the value of owner occupier loan commitments generally outpacing investors.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%201.JPG" alt="">
New South Wales The value of owner occupier loan commitments was up 12.3% over the September quarter, compared with a 3.3% rise in investment.
Although investment credit growth is slower, NSW has the largest concentration of investment activity across the states, with investors comprising 30.5% of mortgage demand based on value.
First home buyers have surged higher over the past couple of years, as stamp duty exemptions and lower housing values have encouraged first timers back into the market.
First home buyers have comprised more than 25% of owner occupier mortgage demand since March this year, more than double the proportion of first home buyers prior to the market peak.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%202.JPG" alt="">
Victoria The value of owner occupier home loan commitments was 11.3% higher over the September quarter, compared with a 10.6% lift in investment lending.
Non-first home buyers drove the quarterly gains, with the value of loans up 13.4%, compared with a 9.2% rise in first home buyer lending.
The value of investor loan commitments remains almost 9% below the level a year ago, however Victoria is showing the second largest concentration of investors (after NSW), comprising 25.2% of mortgage demand in September.
First home buyers have been holding above 30% of owner occupier mortgage demand since February this year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%203.JPG" alt="">
Queensland Investors are driving the largest increases in the value of mortgage activity, with the value of investor loans up 12.5% over the September quarter, compared with a 8.4% lift in owner occupier lending.
Despite the larger rise in investment lending, investors comprise only 17.9% of mortgage demand across Queensland, the second lowest proportion across the states (after WA).
First home buyers showed a larger lift in the value of lending over the quarter, up 11.1% compared with a 8.4% increase in the value of non-first home buyer loans.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%204.JPG" alt="">
South Australia Non-first home buyers are driving mortgage demand across South Australia, with the value of mortgage commitments up 10.8% over the September quarter, compared with a relatively flat 0.8% lift in first home buyer lending and a 1.3% increase in investment lending.
First home buyers have seen a stronger result over the past year, with the value of loans up 9.4%.
The September data showed investors comprised 21.9% of mortgage demand, which was well below the decade average of 29.9%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%205.JPG" alt="">
Western Australia Mortgage activity is finally showing an upwards trend across Western Australia, with the value of owner occupier lending up 15.8% over the September quarter, while the value of investor loans surged 24.1% higher.
The quarterly result was the strongest gain for owner occupier lending since 2009 and the surge in the value of investment loans was the highest since 2005.
Mortgage lending is rising from a very low base, especially across the investor segment, after a prolonged period of weak credit growth.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%206.JPG" alt="">
 Tasmania Mortgage lending was positive on an annual basis across each of the broad market segments, driven by a surge in investment lending over the quarter (+32.4%) and a less substantial 26.2% lift in the value of owner occupier loans.
Tasmania was the only state to record an annual lift in the value of mortgage commitments across each of the broad market segments.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%207.JPG" alt="">
Northern Territory The value of mortgages was down over the quarter and over the year across each of the broad market segments.
Over the past year, investor mortgage commitments were down the most (-30.5%), with a large fall across the first home buyer segment as well (-29.7%).
With housing values around 31% below their peak across the NT, first home buyers are taking advantage of very healthy levels of housing affordability, showing the highest concentration of any State or Territory across the NT, comprising 38.2% of owner occupier demand based on the value of new commitments.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%208.JPG" alt="">
Australian Capital Territory The value of owner occupier mortgage commitments was up 20.7% over the September quarter, driven by a surge in first home buyer activity where the value of lending jumped 75% higher.
The value of mortgage lending across the larger non-first home buyer sector of the market was up 10.3% and investment lending was 9.5% higher over the quarter.
The rebound in new housing credit flows is running in parallel with increased buyer activity and rising residential property values.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/14/Mortgage%20volumes%209.JPG" alt="">
According to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, national dwelling values bottomed out in June this year, the same month that housing credit started to rise.
The improved credit flows have been supported by APRA’s decision to relax borrower serviceability rules, as well as the lowest mortgage rates since at least the 1950’s.
The flow of new credit is likely to be a key factor monitored by policy makers.
Any sign of a material rise in speculative buying activity, higher household debt or a slip in lending standards could be met by another round of macroprudential credit tightening, however at the moment, despite the recent surge in housing credit, investors remains underrepresented in the market and overall credit growth (based on the RBA credit aggregates) remains subdued, implying a strong focus on debt reduction from households.
The next round of APRA statistics providing an insight into key metrics covering riskier areas of lending such as the proportion of interest only loans and the proportion of high LVR lending is due out next month.
These statistics should provide some further guidance around any regulatory response that could impact on housing credit activity.
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic head of research.
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

New mortgage commitment values rising sharply: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We have pushed out our expected timing of the next cash rate cut by the RBA to February 2020, where we expect a further reduction of 25bps to a new low of 0.5%.
It is at this level of the cash rate where the RBA has previously stated it would outline a ‘package’ of unconventional policies if further monetary easing is required to support growth, full employment and the return of inflation to target.
The RBA Governor is speaking on “Unconventional Monetary Policy” on November 26th.
To be clear, we think that the RBA should actually provide a further interest rate cut next month with private sector growth remaining weak and little evidence to date that prior easing or the tax rebates has done enough to offset the weakness in the economy.
However, for now, the RBA appears to be in a holding pattern, while it assesses the impact of prior rate cuts and ‘the gentle turning point’.
We see an improvement in growth over time but not to a sufficiently strong rate of growth to prevent the unemployment rate beginning to rise.
At the same time, the Government does not seem to be inclined to provide material fiscal stimulus in the near term, which increases the need for the RBA to ease further (including a further rate cut and unconventional policy) should our forecast of a deteriorating labour market materialise.
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bps to 0.5% in February 2020 – and potentially announce a package of unconventional policy should there be a need to provide further stimulus to the economy going forward.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Previously we had pencilled in a cut for December (the fourth this year) – and still consider this the best course of action – but the RBA has signalled it is in ‘wait and see’ mode.</div>
<div class="column">
 Growth looks to have remained weak in Q3, with our expectation for quarterly growth now 0.3% (1.5% y/y) – a small slowing from the previous two quarters. This deterioration comes despite the support provided by tax cuts which look to have provided little offset to the weakness in consumption with retail sales declining in Q3 – though it is likely too early to see the impact of recent rate cuts.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In addition, NAB’s internal modelling suggests that the services component of consumption was also weak in Q3.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In the business sector, both business confidence and conditions have remained below average in the first month of Q4 – though encouragingly have not deteriorated further.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The forward-looking indicators suggest little significant signs of a turnaround.</div>
<div class="column">
 Further out we have broadly maintained the shape of our growth forecasts.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">We expect growth of 1.6% this year, before a small improvement to 2.1% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021. These below average rates of growth lead to a small rise in the unemployment rate.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Inflation is expected to remain weak and only reach the bottom of the target band by the end of our forecast horizon.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The key dynamics behind our assessment of the economy continue to be headwinds from a weak consumer and a significant downturn in housing construction.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">We have also lowered our business investment forecasts a touch. These weak outcomes in private domestic demand continue to be partly offset by strong public sector spending and growth in exports – preventing a more troublesome slowing of growth. Our global outlook remains broadly unchanged.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">While we think that fiscal policy could be used to effectively support the economy and the recent easing in monetary policy – this increasingly appears unlikely to occur in the required time frame.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">We think the government should act to bring forward infrastructure investment (where constraints allow) and that an earlier introduction of planned tax cuts could usefully bolster household income growth and spending.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">In addition, investment allowances to support and bring forward investment may help, as would lifting Newstart payment rates.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The risk of fiscal policy remaining on the sidelines for too long, increases the chance that the RBA will ease further than otherwise (including both further rate cuts and the use of QE) though both of the latter see longer lags in boosting growth.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">As previously outlined we see the risk of a move to unconventional policy by mid-next year without material support from fiscal policy.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">We think that initially the RBA could flag a package of options at around a 0.5% cash rate and would begin to implement these as rates are cut further in this scenario.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Initially, we think it is highly likely the RBA would shift to an explicit form of forward guidance and purchase government bonds.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Other unconventional measures could include a broader range of asset purchases and increasing liquidity in the short-term money market.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Long-dated repurchase agreements to banks are another option.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The choice of instruments and size of the package is likely to reflect both economic conditions and financial market circumstances at the time of implementation.</div>
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ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group Chief Economist
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB pushes next rate cut out to February 2020: NAB's Alan Oster 

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The golden age of banks controlling the home loan market seems to be ending, with active home borrowers set to be the main beneficiaries.
The market share of the big four banks continues to fall.
According to research from UBS analyst Jonathan Mott mortgage origination via the big four’s branch networks has fallen from a peak of 48% in 2013 to presently around 37%.
ANZ’s branch network experienced the sharpest reduction.  
As a result of the shift, the major banks’ share of new home loans has dropped from 78% to 71% over the past six years.
Mott noted the majors still have 79% share of all outstanding mortgage credit outstanding, but that new lending competition was intensifying as customers migrate away from the major banks.
Reputational damage post the banking royal commission accelerated the trend along with repeated times of not fully passing through RBA rate cuts to its annoyed variable rate customers.
The Hoff, actor David Hasselhoff, was the unlikely influencer that helped turbo-boost the ANZ Bank's recent home loan activity.
The ANZ saw a 30% plus bounce in the home loan applications accompanying the recent two month campaign featuring the 1980s star of Knight Rider and Baywatch.
The cheesy ANZ advertising campaign also promised 300,000 bonus Qantas Points for a loan of $300,000 or more, which could comfortably take a family of four to Fiji return or a couple to New York.
The marketing campaign slogan was "a home loan offer so good you don't need a celebrity".
The two month campaign was perfectly time to capture the spurt in buying interest around the time of the May election.
The multi-media ANZ campaign ran from July until late August, attracting some 1.7 million views on YouTube.
There was certainly some negative social media suggesting The Hoff was a "has been". 
The Hoff, who proposed to his wife, Hayley Roberts at the top of the Harbour Bridge climb in 2012, was back in Sydney for just a day to do the filming earlier this year.
Helping turn the tide on its falling home loan applicants, the ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott credited the campaign.
He noted the Hoff campaign had blown through its volume targets "every single day".
“We think it’s a signal to the market we’re back — to the broker market, in particular, but also to our branches," he said.
Elliott also noted the increased volume came through "operational" improvements and an improved property market.
Before the campaign began, APRA statistics showed ANZ had 15% of the owner occupier home loan market, well behind the Commonwealth Bank's 26% and Westpac with 21%.
"Average (application) levels in the second half were more than 30% higher than the first half," the chief financial officer Michelle Jablko said.
Elliott conceded earlier this year the bank had become too conservative assessing home loan applications.
Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer advised this week that he expects lending to be “relatively flat” over the 2020 year.
Westpac highlighted that the group’s credit quality “remains sound”.
“Nevertheless, we have seen a small rise in 90 day mortgage delinquencies over the year, in part due to low wage growth and slowing economic activity.
"70% of our Australian home loan customers are ahead on their repayments including offset accounts,” he added.
Hartzer said the economy would continue to feel the squeeze throughout 2020 as the residential construction cycle headed towards a low.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Golden age for big four home loan dominance ending

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Digital bank 86 400 has started offering home loans, becoming the first neo bank in Australia to do so.
Prospective buyers who are eyeing a loan at 86,400, the Sydney-based bank which only launched two months ago, won't need to submit any paper documentation in their applications.
It's been reported the system could take just hours to approve a loan, however it will have to go through a mortgage broker.
The neo bank is offering an owner-occupier variable rate of 3.09 per cent.
Their three year fixed rates for owner occupiers is at 2.88 per cent. 
“86 400 has put an affordable home loan option on the table just two months after launching," RateCity research director Sally Tindall said.
“While their variable rate is significantly lower than the big four banks, if you’re focused on price, there are plenty of cheaper options out there,” Tindall added.
 
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86 400 becomes first neo bank in Australia to offer home loans

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The Design and Building Practitioners Bill 2019 was officially introduced to the NSW Parliament last month.
Minister for Better Regulation Kevin Anderson said the bill outlines key accountabilities of design and building practitioners for the first time.
It aims to improve the quality and integrity of vital design documentation, relied upon by construction professionals and directly addresses the key recommendations of the Building Confidence Report.
“The introduction of this Bill marks a monumental step in the reform of the building and construction industry to improve the transparency, accountability and quality of work within the sector,” Anderson said.
“People should feel confident they can enter the housing market in NSW, knowing their home has been designed and built in accordance with the Building Code of Australia, which is what this Bill is designed to do.”
Reforms in the Design and Building Practitioners Bill 2019 include:
<ul>
<li>The introduction of categories of ‘regulated designs’, which ensures certain designs, including designs for key building elements including fire safety systems, structural elements and waterproofing are properly documented and only undertaken by registered professionals.</li>
<li>A requirement to issue a legally binding compliance declaration, stating compliance with the Building Code of Australia for design practitioners who prepare regulated designs;</li>
<li>A requirement for building practitioners to obtain, rely upon and build in accordance with declared designs, and issue a legally binding compliance declaration, stating that the final building, including any variations comply with the Building Code of Australia.</li>
<li>A new registration scheme for any practitioner who intends on making a compliance declaration including builders and designers such as engineers and architects.</li>
<li>Enhanced protections for residential homeowners by clarifying that a duty of care is owed by person who carry out construction work, making it easier to bring civil claim for damages.</li>
</ul>
Anderson said the Bill will also provide strong new powers to allow the NSW Building Commissioner including the ability to compel and seize documentation and information, access building sites and order building work to stop.
The Bill also allows for the prevention of the issuance of an occupancy certificate or registration of a strata scheme if serious breaches are believed to have occurred.
Failure to comply with the new laws could result in fines up to $330,000 and the possibility of up to two years imprisonment.
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