A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
The RBA board were upbeat in their assessment on the housing market at their February 2020 meeting where they left the cash rate on hold at 0.75 per cent.
They said that prices had "increased very strongly in Sydney and Melbourne in recent months", with hopes that higher housing prices and the increase in housing turnover will support consumption and dwelling investment.
They noted household consumption was lower than expected in the September quarter, despite strong growth in household disposable income.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA's forecast was for growth in consumption to increase gradually, sustained by moderate growth in household disposable income and the recovery in the housing market.
"Growth in housing prices had picked up in most capital cities and parts of regional Australia over recent months", Lowe said.
<h1>Mortgages</h1>
Mortgage payments increased in the December quarter.
There was a rise in principal and excess payments, more than offsetting the decline in interest payments.
"Members discussed whether this increase reflected a change in behaviour by households and the potential for it to persist," Lowe said.
"They noted that some households were likely to be repaying their debts faster in response to low growth of their incomes and the earlier fall in housing prices."
Housing loan commitments also continued to rise, which the RBA said was largely driven by owner-occupiers. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers had increased to 5.5 per cent on a six months ended annualised basis in December.
<h1>Household consumption</h1>
The RBA suggested household consumption had been lower than expected in the September quarter.
"[This was] despite strong growth in household disposable income, supported by the receipt of tax offset payments and lower interest payments following the recent reductions in the cash rate."
The RBA were only expecting retail sales volumes to grow modestly in the December quarter, however nominal sales had increase strongly in November, namely due to Black Friday sales.
"Measures of consumer sentiment had declined over recent months, but consumers' views on their personal financial situation, which historically have had a stronger link to consumption, had been little changed.
"Members noted that a number of factors had contributed to the slowdown in consumption growth since mid 2018.
"The downturn in the housing market had reduced households' wealth, and the extended period of weak growth in household income had probably lowered expectations of future income growth.
"Members observed that the prolonged period of slow growth in income was expected to continue to weigh on consumption over coming quarters.
"Furthermore, recent data had suggested that households were directing more income to saving and reducing their debt.
<h1>Future rate movements</h1>
Lowe advised the lower interest rates could speed up progress towards the Bank's inflation and unemployment targets.
"In considering this case, the Board took into account that interest rates had already been reduced to a low level and that there are long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy", Lowe said.
"The Board also recognised that the incremental benefits of further interest rate reductions needed to be weighed against the risks associated with very low interest rates."
To read the full minutes, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/insights-into-rba-thinking-february-2020-rba-minutes">click here</a>.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Prices increasing "very strongly" in Sydney and Melbourne: RBA February minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In July I noted via a stylised example how the lifting of the minimum 7 per cent mortgage assessment rate - when combined with the monetary easing then priced in - might result in a 15 per cent increase in borrowing power and activity for homebuyers (but not portfolio investors).
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KEtYgTcCfQM/XkjtNvUsVZI/AAAAAAAA0SA/Czq_5rwV_h82_Ngssm_oXQTeFvkfSoSDQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Floor%2Brate.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="1374">
This is pretty much what's played out, with investor credit growth running at the lowest level on record and mired in negative territory, while homebuyers have come back into the market with gusto.
As written about previously, Australian Finance Group (AFG) saw a $35,000 jump in the average loan size across two quarters of its lodgements data, largely driven by upwards moves in New South Wales and Victoria. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8SmCTvSiEs/Xkjtr_mT5cI/AAAAAAAA0SI/Zt8nDkOXZi46E3lgW-lGDhuzBGkxTfCbgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AFG1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1365">
And now the December 2019 housing lending figures from the ABS showed the average new mortgage size for homebuyers rising to around $500,000 for the first time, recording a surprising 16 per cent or $60,000 leap since the election.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-khQfprIuT6c/XkkKzxewRWI/AAAAAAAA0SY/J_cQf-ufv68_eb_EJYcfvmI9nVWxun6igCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Loan.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1330">
The increase here was again driven by New South Wales and Victoria, and to a secondary extent the other mainland states.
While it may be a noisy data series, in NSW the average mortgage size surged by $103,000 or 20 per cent since May for the purchase of existing homes. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gk7f-c9iGqQ/XkkOnT5X1EI/AAAAAAAA0Sg/loFPwgv9gWYzZ9S4lSCe_Jj_nCmbHsqXQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AMS.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1418">
With this week's wage price index likely to record year-on-year growth of just +2.3 per cent there probably isn't much more gas in the tank here until the economy gets moving again, which doesn't look likely any time soon. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The average new mortgage size has increased to nearly $500,000: Pete Wargent

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Australia’s largest bank, CBA, has today cut fixed rate home loans by up to 0.50 per cent.
Commonwealth Bank has slashed all its investment fixed rates, as well as its 1, 4 and 5 year fixed owner-occupier mortgage rates.
The biggest cuts are to the 4- and 5-year fixed investment interest-only loans, which have dropped by 0.50 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/14/CBA%20new%20rates%201.JPG" alt="">
RateCity.com.au research shows 30 lenders have cut fixed rates this year, including Suncorp, Westpac and Bankwest.
As a result of today’s changes, CBA now has the lowest 1-year fixed rate out of the big four banks and equal lowest 4- and 5-year fixed rate for owner-occupiers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/14/CBA%20new%20rates%202.JPG" alt="">
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the Commonwealth Bank was cutting fixed rates to stay competitive.
“With fixed rates now as low as 2.50 per cent, banks are being forced to take the knife to their home loan rates to attract new business,” she said.
“CBA’s decision to cut all investor fixed rates is a sign it wants them back on the books."
“Since the APRA caps on investors and interest-only lending have been scrapped, banks have been increasingly shaving investor rates."
“Although fixed rate cuts are often a sign of an imminent RBA cut, these latest changes could be more about CBA drumming up new business," she concluded.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

CBA cuts fixed home loan rates by up to 0.5%

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EXPERT OBSERVER
At its first board meeting for the year the RBA left the official cash rate at 0.75%. Its last easing was back in October and its been on hold ever since.
This was in line with the market’s and our own expectations.
The RBA appears to have taken heart from the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% in December and the December quarter inflation results which were in line with its expectations. As a result it has decided to be patient.
What’s surprising though is that it has retained its expectation for economic growth to pick up to around 2.75% this year. Its confidence may reflect the run of better than expected data for retail sales, building approvals and employment over the last month or so.
But the problem is that all of this has related to late last year and since then business and consumer confidence has weakened further not helped by the bushfires with the coronavirus posing a new threat.
While we mostly agree with the RBA that the drag on growth from the bushfires and the coronavirus will be short term and temporary, it is likely to be more significant than the RBA is allowing for. And the risk is that it will linger longer particularly given the threat that both pose to tourism.
As a result we continue to see economic growth being constrained to around 2% this year, well below the RBA’s 2.75%. This in turn is likely to see unemployment drift up a bit, underemployment remains very high and wages growth and underlying inflation remain lower for longer.
All of which will mean that little if any progress towards the RBA’s full employment and inflation targets is likely this year.
As such, we continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in the months ahead ultimately taking the cash rate down to 0.25% by mid-year, unless fiscal policy is eased significantly.
In this regard it is worth noting that the RBA retains an easing bias, with its post meeting Statement noting that “It [the RBA Board] remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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The cash rate will still fall in the months ahead: Shane Oliver

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<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. There have been signs that the slowdown in global growth that started in 2018 is coming to an end. Global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year and inflation remains low almost everywhere. One continuing source of uncertainty, despite recent progress, is the trade and technology dispute between the US and China, which has affected international trade flows and investment. Another source of uncertainty is the coronavirus, which is having a significant effect on the Chinese economy at present. It is too early to determine how long-lasting the impact will be.
Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks eased monetary policy over the second half of last year. There is an expectation of a little further monetary easing in some economies. Long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is around its lowest level over recent times.
The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent this year and 3 per cent next year, which would be a step up from the growth rates over the past two years. In the short term, the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will temporarily weigh on domestic growth. The household sector has been adjusting to a protracted period of slow wages growth and, last year, to a decline in housing prices, with the result that consumption has been quite weak. Following this period of balance-sheet adjustment, consumption growth is expected to pick up gradually. The overall outlook is also being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax refunds, ongoing spending on infrastructure, a brighter outlook for the resources sector and, later this year, an expected recovery in residential construction.
The unemployment rate declined in December to 5.1 per cent. It is expected to remain around this level for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5 per cent in 2021. Wages growth is subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation remains low and stable. Over 2019, CPI inflation was 1.8 per cent and underlying inflation was a little lower than this. The central scenario is for CPI inflation to be around 2 per cent in the near term and to fluctuate around that rate over the next couple of years. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to increase gradually to 2 per cent over the next couple of years.
There are continuing signs of a pick-up in established housing markets. This is especially so in Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in some other markets have also increased. Mortgage loan commitments have also picked up, although demand for credit by investors remains subdued. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality. Credit conditions for small and medium-sized businesses remain tight.
The easing of monetary policy last year is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range. The lower cash rate has put downward pressure on the exchange rate, which is supporting activity across a range of industries. Lower interest rates have assisted with the process of household balance sheet adjustment. They have also boosted asset prices, which in time should lead to increased spending, including on residential construction. Progress is expected towards the inflation target and towards full employment, but that progress is expected to remain gradual.
With interest rates having already been reduced to a very low level and recognising the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting. Due to both global and domestic factors, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market. It remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries">To read the original meeting statement, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-01" target="_blank">click here</a>.</div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Housing price growth extends beyond Sydney and Melbourne: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's February 2020 meeting statement

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The RBA kept the official cash rate at a record low 0.75 per cent at its February meeting, the first of 2020. 
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's head of research, said the result wasn't a surprise given the ongoing uncertainty brought about by the extent of the bush fires and the unfolding implications of the Corona virus outbreak.
"The RBA may need to keep some rate cutting ammunition up their sleeve should these scenarios play out more severely than expected.", Lawless said.
"To date, lower interest rates haven’t flowed through to a material improvement in economic conditions, but housing markets have well and truly responded, with national housing values rising 6.7% since the first rate cut in June through to the end of January. 
Lawless said that, importantly, we may be seeing some early signs that strength in housing markets is transferring through to other sectors.
"Dwelling approvals recorded their first annual rise since mid-2018 and the value of new mortgage commitments up 5.9% over the year to November, driven by a 10% increase in owner-occupier commitments. 
"Although rates remained on hold today, we are expecting the RBA to cut the cash rate later in 2020. 
"Further rate cuts could fuel home buyer demand, although we don’t expect future cuts to the cash rate to be passed on in full to mortgage rates.
 Finder's RBA survey suggests the retail slowdown will continue as the cash rate holds.
Some 79 per cent of survey respondents said we will see further store closures through 2020, following the likes of retailers Big W, Bose, Curris Planet and EB Games all closing stores.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the outlook is grim.
“While FMCG retailers such as Woolies and Coles will generally continue to operate successfully, clothing and other retailers must adapt or perish", Cooke said.
“In an environment where people are spending less and ordering more online – if you don’t have a seat at the table, you might be on the menu.
 Mozo director Kirsty Lamont says the likelihood of a cut in the next few months is very high.
“The full economic impact of the bushfire crisis and coronavirus is still unknown and the RBA will need to account for these factors to an already stagnant economy", Lamont said, adding that recent improvements in employment and inflation data gave the Reserve Bank enough breathing room to hold rates.
 
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RBA hold rates at first meeting of 2020

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Economists are highly divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the right number of cuts to the cash rate last year, according to the latest Finder survey.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, when asked if the RBA was right to make 3 cuts in 2019, only half of the respondents to this question said it made the right call (50%,13/26).
Of the other half of experts who disagreed with the Reserve Bank's decisions, most (42%, 11/26) said the RBA should have cut less.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the RBA’s decisions will never please everybody.
“On the one hand, some experts say the cutting was 'overzealous' and is seeing house prices soar while most economic metrics have been stagnant."
“Others think the RBA hasn’t done enough to repair the economy in light of lagging employment and inflation figures."
“One thing is clear: three cuts have reignited the housing market and pumped up property prices across the country."
“With more cuts on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether cheaper credit and lower rates will be an elixir or a poison pill," he said."
RBA cash rate expected to hold
Nearly 9 in 10 experts and economists predict the RBA will hold the cash rate in February (87%, 34/39) with just 13% expecting a cut.
The experts predicting a cut cited the bushfires, weak wage growth, low inflation and high unemployment as the main issues necessitating an easing.
Besa Deda of St.George Economics said; “In the absence of wage pressures, inflation remains well below target. More stimulus is required to return growth to trend.”
Cooke noted the forecast for a rate cut in February dropped from 66% before the December meeting to just 13% this month.
Nearly 4 out of 5 who made a forward prediction (not including February) forecast a cash rate drop by May 2020 (79%, 23/29).
A quarter of experts predict a cut in March (24%, 7/29), while nearly a third predict a cut in April (31%, 9/29). Another quarter predict a cut in May (24%, 7/29).
Only 2 of the 39 experts (5%) on the panel thought the eventual move, whenever it happens, would be a rise.
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Half surveyed experts think RBA went wrong with rate cuts: Finder Survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA will stay on hold in February, using the recent improvement in the unemployment rate to buy time – suggesting the bank will continue to react to the accumulation of evidence very gradually.
It is important to note that the framework for monetary policy still suggests that rates should be lower.
Inflationary pressure remains weak and recent headwinds – particularly for consumption and business investment - are likely to persist. Notwithstanding the recent dip in the unemployment rate, a large degree of spare capacity remains in the labour market with little progress having been made over the last year in reducing unemployment.
Nonetheless, unless the RBA wishes to move against market expectations, the February cut appears off the table.
Consequently, we have moved the timing of the next cut to April followed by a second cut around mid-year. Beyond that the risk of a move to ‘unconventional’ policy in H2 2020 will depend critically on whether the labour market deteriorates more significantly than we forecast.
By April, the RBA will have confirmation of another quarter of weak consumer spending with further evidence that interest rate and tax cuts to date have not done enough to boost spending.
We will review our GDP forecasts over the next week or so as more information comes in on the indirect effects of the bushfires and coronavirus on activity and ultimately the labour market. 
The stronger than expected December labour market data has provided time for the RBA to further assess the data flow. While the RBA staying on hold in February is expected by the market, we still think the RBA will regret not moving earlier this year – as was also the case in 2019 – as consumer spending trends remain very soft. The December NAB survey also suggests that private sector economic momentum, while it didn’t collapse in late 2019, remains stalled. 
Ultimately the RBA’s policy path will depend on where the economy and the labour market goes from here. We remain of the view that the economy – and consumer spending in particular - will continue to underperform and probably more than the RBA expects – albeit new RBA forecasts will be published later this week and will likely contain a softer near-term growth outlook. 
An early estimate of the short-term bushfire impact could well see average GDP growth in 2020 slow to around 1.5% or lower, with unemployment starting to rise to around 5.5% by H2 2020. While we will be assessing the indirect disruption effects of the fires over coming weeks it seems likely that Q1 GDP will be negative. We are quite worried that the January NAB Survey will further highlight that the indirect effects were larger than most expect.
Internal data on income growth suggests that wages growth may have weakened in late 2019. Indeed, our analysis suggests household cash flows weakened further in late 2019. It is too early to assess the impact of the Coronavirus but clearly it will also not be a positive. Next week we will formally review our GDP forecasts ahead of the next NAB business survey release. 
The bushfire rebuild will add somewhat to growth in the out years but we do not see that as significant in 2020 – rather it is likely to be a 2021 issue. Also, the fiscal outlay on the fires (at $2billion over two years) is not likely to be a game changer in terms of the near term macroeconomic outlook.
We still see scope for more support from a material fiscal package. That does not appear to be on the government’s agenda. Similarly, we think there is a need for renewed focus on structural policy to lift productivity growth over the medium term, which would in turn provide support for wage growth.
Whether the RBA moves to unconventional policy will very much depend on whether the economy strengthens in H2 2020 and unemployment continues its recent gains. We fear that will not be the case. Beyond that, the shape of the 2020/21 Federal Budget will be important.
While we can understand the RBA’s position of taking more time to assess the outlook, that in our view is only sustainable for a short period. By April it will be clear that private sector growth continues to flat line, consumer spending remains soft and potentially that recent unemployment gains are not sustained. That combination means that further stimulus will be needed.
ALAN OSTER is NAB Group's Chief Economist
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NAB push back RBA rate cut prediction: Alan Oster

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac now expects that the Reserve Bank will delay its next cut in the cash rate to April with the final cut to 0.25% occurring in August.
Prior to the release of the surprisingly strong December Employment Report we had expected the cuts to be timed for February and June.
Our analysis of the December Board Minutes highlighted that, with the Board committing to review its assessment of the economy in February, it seemed likely that the Board would have been prepared to cut the cash rate by 0.25% at that meeting.
However we did note that, “The flow of economic data over the next six weeks will be critical to that decision, particularly the labour market; retail sales and confidence”. (Economic Bulletin, December 17).
Although the November retail sales report printed a strong 0.9% we were comfortable to attribute much of that out performance to the “Black Friday” effect expecting a sizeable pull back in retail sales in December, (to be released on 6th of February).
The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.8% in January to 93.4 – consistent with a down beat consumer.
However, the Employment Report was always going to be the most important data release.
Recall that in the December minutes the Board concluded that, "The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
The November report showed a tick down in the unemployment rate from 5.3% to 5.2% – Westpac expected that the December Report would see a reversion back to 5.3% but the actual report printed a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.
This fall in the unemployment rate is not unprecedented. Over the last five years there have been six occasions when the unemployment rate has fallen in back to back months by a total of 0.2% or more.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/January/er20200124BullDelayRBACashRate.pdf" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">'RBA delay cash rate' (PDF 74kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Westpac expects RBA and USA to delay rate cuts: Bill Evans

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ANZ Bank has cut both its home loan and deposit rates in the lead up to the RBA's first meeting of the year.
They've cut the variable rate for new owner occupiers paying principal and interest with a 20 per cent deposit or more by 0.12 per cent. It is now at 3.12 per cent.
ANZ now offer the second lowest ongoing variable rate of the big four.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/23/Big%20Four%20Variable.jpg" alt=""> Source: RateCity.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said ANZ appeared to be doing some "spring cleaning" ahead of the RBA’s meeting next month.Note: the above rates are new customer variable rates for owner occupiers paying principal and interest.
“ANZ’s recalibration of their deposit rates ahead of the next Reserve Bank meeting suggests they are getting their house in order ahead of a potential cash rate cut", Tindall said.
“Today’s home loan cuts are testament to the ongoing competition in the mortgage market. Yesterday we saw <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-makes-big-cuts-to-fixed-rate-loans">Westpac slash investor fixed rates by up to 0.50 per cent</a> and we expect others will follow in coming days,” she said.
Following <a href="/news/nab-slashes-saving-rates-again">NAB's saving rate cut earlier in the month</a>, ANZ have followed suit, cutting their Online Saver account base rate from 0.10 per cent to just 0.05 per cent, the worst of the big four.
The old introductory rate for the first three months has been trimmed from 1.6 per cent to 1.55 per cent also.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/23/Big%20four%20savings%20rates.jpg" alt=""> Source: RateCity
“With a new ongoing rate of 0.05 per cent, ANZ’s online saver account is down there at the bottom of the barrel.“What’s disappointing is that while the home loan cuts are largely reserved for new customers, the savings cuts will hit everyone with an ANZ online saver account", Tindall added.
"A person with $10,000 in one of these accounts would be getting less than 50 cents in interest a month once the introductory rate expires. That’s not even enough for a litre of milk."
 
 
 
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