The Federal Government’s sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax could trigger an unintended consequence: a surge of investor demand into the new and off the plan apartment sector.

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has framed the reforms as a way to improve housing affordability and rebalance the tax system, the carve-outs for newly built housing are already positioning off the plan apartments as one of the few remaining tax-effective property investment plays.

Under the changes handed down in the Federal Budget, investors purchasing established properties after budget night will no longer be able to access negative gearing benefits. The Government will also replace the long-standing 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with a new inflation-indexation model and introduce a minimum 30 per cent tax on gains from July 2027.

However, there is a major exemption.

Investors buying new builds, including off the plan apartments, will still be eligible for negative gearing and will be able to choose between retaining the current 50 per cent CGT discount or adopting the new indexed model.

That distinction is expected to reshape investor behaviour almost immediately.

For years, established housing has dominated investor purchases because of its perceived lower risk, immediate rental returns and stronger historical capital growth. But with the tax advantages now heavily skewed toward new housing supply, the economics are changing rapidly.

The Federal Government has been explicit about its intent.

“The housing market and tax system are broken,” Chalmers said ahead of the Budget, arguing that existing concessions were disproportionately rewarding speculation rather than supporting housing supply.

The Government says the reforms are designed to encourage investment into new housing rather than established stock, a move aimed at increasing supply during a prolonged housing shortage.

According to the official Budget papers, limiting negative gearing to newly built homes is intended to “better align tax incentives with housing supply objectives.”

For the apartment development sector, particularly the off the plan market, the changes could become one of the strongest investor tailwinds in years.

Developers across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have spent the past two years battling elevated construction costs, higher interest rates and subdued investor confidence. Many projects have struggled to secure sufficient pre-sales to commence construction, particularly in markets heavily reliant on investor demand.

The Budget changes may now alter that equation.

Investors seeking tax-effective property exposure will increasingly find themselves funnelled toward newly built apartments simply because established dwellings no longer offer the same benefits.

Commonwealth Bank described the reforms as one of the most significant shifts to residential property investment settings in decades, noting that the package is centred around “limiting negative gearing for residential property to new builds” while replacing the existing CGT framework.

That could have profound implications for the apartment sector.

Off the plan apartments already hold several advantages for investors. Purchasers typically secure a property at today’s price while settlement occurs years later, allowing time for capital growth and reducing the upfront capital burden. Brand-new apartments also generally attract depreciation benefits, lower maintenance costs, and stronger appeal to renters seeking modern amenity.

Now, they may also become one of the only residential property types still offering the full suite of historical tax advantages.

Industry analysts expect investor demand to increasingly migrate toward projects that can clearly demonstrate strong rental demand, transport connectivity and long-term supply constraints.

The shift is likely to be particularly pronounced in apartment markets already underpinned by structural undersupply, including inner Brisbane, the Gold Coast, parts of Sydney’s Lower North Shore and select Melbourne precincts where new apartment commencements have collapsed over recent years.

The reforms also arrive at a time when apartment supply nationally remains critically constrained.

Australia is already struggling to meet the Federal Government’s target of delivering 1.2 million new homes over five years. Construction feasibility pressures have delayed or shelved thousands of apartments across the country, particularly as building costs remain elevated and financing conditions remain tight.

Critics of the Budget changes argue the reforms could reduce overall investor participation in the housing market and place upward pressure on rents by discouraging investment in established housing.

Some economists estimate the measures could reduce housing supply over the longer term if overall investor appetite weakens.

However, the Government is betting that redirecting investor capital into new housing supply will offset those concerns.

“To continue to incentivise construction of new housing, investors building new residential properties will be able to choose either the 50 per cent CGT discount or the new arrangements,” the Budget papers stated.

That wording has been closely watched by the development industry because it effectively positions new apartments as the preferred investment class within residential property.

For off the plan developers, the reforms could become a powerful sales tool.

Projects that have increasingly relied on owner-occupier demand may once again attract investors seeking to preserve the tax advantages still attached to newly built housing before the July 2027 changes take effect.

The reforms are also expected to sharpen the divide between established and new housing markets.

Rather than a broad investor retreat from property altogether, many analysts expect a redistribution of capital toward sectors still supported by Government incentives.

That could create stronger demand for apartment projects in key urban growth corridors and transit-oriented precincts where population growth, migration and rental shortages remain elevated.

The policy direction also aligns with the Government’s broader push toward increasing housing density in established urban areas.

Across Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, planning reforms are increasingly encouraging higher-density apartment development around transport infrastructure and activity centres. By maintaining tax incentives for new housing, the Federal Government is effectively reinforcing that agenda from a taxation perspective.

For apartment developers who have spent years navigating subdued investor confidence, the changes may ultimately become the catalyst that reactivates parts of the off the plan market.

While the broader property sector is still digesting the long-term implications of the Budget, one thing is already becoming clear.

The era of investors buying established apartments and houses primarily for tax advantages may be ending.

But for off the plan apartments, the investment story may just be beginning.

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Joel Robinson

Investors to flood off the plan apartment market?

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-48" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:55d7c6ac-8e6d-4881-ad49-0ed9bf66d1cc-23" dir="auto">
Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.

According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.

At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.

This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.

As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.

The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.

This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.

<img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0de388d7-743f-4380-8a78-f73d08b01adb" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/med-unit-price.jpg?VersionId=v9enhg5VlyZuPfexkMhmE7NQVmdwgomN" />

The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.

At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.

<img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c0cf994c-a1ed-4be0-b3e8-b8c4a2d5c762" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pop-change.jpg?VersionId=EnyA1Vs91dpZyZdOc97Ec.H5LJ14kiqT" />

However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.

Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.

<img alt="Apartment approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3f9a9a39-25ba-495b-bfd5-3e574e927cf0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/appart-approvals.jpg?VersionId=XUPrMbBa5DiIF9wvEjc3YbVlbmonZE.y" />

This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.

The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.

This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.

There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.

Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.

“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.

The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.

What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.
</section>

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

The Gold Coast new apartment market delivered a record-breaking performance in 2025, with more project launches, higher sales volumes and peak prices underscoring continued buyer confidence despite construction cost and labour concerns, according to new research.

According to Urbis, a total of 24 new projects launched in 2025, delivering 2,096 apartments to the market. This compares with 20 projects and 1,519 apartments launched in 2024, representing a significant uplift in new supply.

New apartment sales across the Gold Coast were 31% higher than 2024, with 1,361 total sales recorded during 2025, including 222 sales in Q4 alone.

Despite industry concerns over construction costs and labour shortages potentially slowing momentum, the data shows the market remained resilient throughout the year.

“The 2025 results demonstrate the continued depth of demand in the Gold Coast market,” said Lynda Campbell, Senior Consultant at Urbis.

“While cost pressures were expected to dampen activity, we have instead seen strong buyer confidence translate into higher sales, increased project launches and record pricing outcomes.”

The Gold Coast Central Precinct (GCCP), focussed on Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, continued to dominate in both supply and sales activity throughout 2025.

The year to end 2025 left 956 apartments remaining for sale, down from 1,422 at the beginning of the year, leaving the city with the lowest level of supply since Q3 2022.

While GCCP held its position overall, momentum shifted during Q2 and Q3 as the Southern Beaches Precinct and Coastal Fringe Precinct recorded strong quarterly sales rates.

This surge was driven by high-performing new project launches, including The Landmark’s South Tower in the $2.5 million The Landmark project at Mermaid Beach being undertaken by Gold Coast developer Aniko Group and Homecorp’s Cienna Varsity Ridge.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134338 project_image_fid=311028]

“The Gold Coast Central Precinct remains the engine room of the market, but what we saw in Q2 and Q3 was a clear demonstration that well-positioned new launches in supply-constrained precincts are met with immediate demand,” Campbell said.

“When quality product enters the market in areas like the Southern Beaches and Coastal Fringe, buyers respond quickly.”

These precincts and North Shore continue to operate with limited supply, reinforcing the importance of new project launches to maintain transaction volumes.

The market closed 2025 with a record weighted average sale price (WASP) of $2.559 million in Q4, the highest on record.

The Southern Beaches Precinct recorded a Q4 WASP of $3.855 million, marking a peak for the precinct. This performance was driven by new premium launches from Mosaic Property Group and Abedian and Co.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149424 project_image_fid=360440]

Campbell said the data confirms a clear shift toward higher price points:

More than two thirds (67%) of all 2025 sales were priced at $1 million and above and two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments dominated, accounting for 51% of total sales,” she said.

“The record weighted average sale price reflects both the calibre of product being delivered and the evolution of buyer demand.&nbsp;

“We are seeing a decisive move toward premium product, with two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments continuing to dominate and a substantial majority of sales now transacting above the $1 million mark.

“The Gold Coast has firmly positioned itself as a mature, high-value apartment market. The strength of pricing in 2025 indicates sustained confidence from both local and interstate buyers.”

The 2025 results demonstrate sustained demand for new apartments across the Gold Coast, particularly in premium and lifestyle-driven precincts. Strong absorption rates, rising prices and steady project launches indicate positive momentum heading into 2026.

“With supply tightening in key precincts and demand remaining elevated, the outlook for 2026 remains constructive,” Campbell added.

“Continued delivery of well-located, high-quality projects will be critical to meeting ongoing buyer demand.”

More projects launched, sales surge 31%, and prices reach historic highs

2025 sets new records for Gold Coast apartment market as launches and sales boom

Australian home values rose by 0.8% in January according to Cotality’s Home Value Index, a subtle acceleration from the 0.6% increase recorded in December.

While every capital city and broad rest of state region recorded an increase in home values through the month, the start of the year returned a mixed result across the capital cities.

Sydney and Melbourne are weighing on the headline numbers, recording a 0.2% and 0.1% increase in January; a marginal pickup following the slight falls recorded in December. Both markets have values slightly down on their peak levels, with Sydney -0.1% below the November 2025 peak and Melbourne values remaining -0.7% lower than record highs recorded in March 2022.

The mid-sized capitals have continued their solid growth run, however some momentum has left the upswing in these cities as well.

Perth values were 2% higher in January, the strongest gain across the capitals, but well below the cyclical high of 2.9% MoM growth recorded in November last year. Similarly, Brisbane’s monthly gain has slowed from 2% in October last year to 1.6% in January, and Adelaide’s monthly increase dropped back to 1.2% from a 1.8% rise in December.

Tim Lawless, Cotality’s Research Director, noted the market’s resilience, but suggests further momentum is likely to leave the market.

“Despite the most unaffordable conditions on record in many cities, along with a rebound in cost of living pressures and prospect of a rate hike as early as this Tuesday, we are still seeing a broad-based rise in housing values,” Lawless said.

“The ongoing capital gains reflect persistently low inventory in the face of above average housing demand, however we are likely to see demand side pressures gradually ease in 2026.

“Affordability and serviceability constraints are likely to naturally dampen demand, but also renewed cost of living pressures and a strong chance that interest rates will rise. There is also slowing population growth to consider.”

Cotality estimates the number of homes advertised for sale was 19% below levels at the same time last year, and 25% below the five-year average for this time of year. At the same time, the rolling quarterly number of home sales was estimated to be 1% higher than a year ago and only 3% below the five-year average.

Digging a little deeper, most cities are continuing to see homes at the lower end of the value spectrum supporting growth, especially for houses. Across the combined capitals, lower quartile house values were up 1.3% in January compared with a 0.3% rise across the upper quartile.

“This trend of stronger growth conditions at lower price points is supported by intense competition for more affordable houses,” said Mr Lawless. “This is where first home buyers, investors and, progressively, mainstream demand is most concentrated.”

Regional markets have delivered a stronger growth outcome, with the combined regionals index up 1% in January compared with a 0.7% rise across the combined capitals.

Housing values continued to rise in January

Strategic government planning will be crucial in addressing the ongoing supply/demand imbalance in Brisbane’s residential market, as new supply continues to lag.

That’s one of the conclusions from a new CBRE market analysis, which highlights positive fundamentals but ongoing challenges for both the Brisbane and broader South East Queensland residential market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

While 5,600 apartments and townhouses are projected to be completed in Brisbane this year – up from an average of 3,500 in the five years to 2024 – CBRE Research Director Craig Godber said this figure had been somewhat inflated by project delays, which had shifted some anticipated 2024 completions into 2025.

Godber noted that recent completion levels were also well below the peak period in 2016 and 2017 when annual additions averaged around 12,500 units and townhouses.

“Brisbane's residential market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with demand outstripping supply," Godber said.

"Strategic planning by the State Government is crucial in addressing this imbalance and ensuring sustainable development."

Godber noted that low supply levels had translated into an extended period of low vacancy rates, with Brisbane’s metropolitan vacancy being at or below 1.5% since early 2021 and hitting 0.9% as at March this year.

These tight market conditions are evident across all city precincts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149098 project_image_fid=330588]

Looking ahead, adjusted additions between 2025 and 2029 are forecast at 23,200 dwellings, or 4,600 per annum, with 60% of these expected to be concentrated in Brisbane’s inner city.

“Brisbane’s low vacancy rate highlights the urgent need for additional residential supply and the forecasted growth in dwelling completions is a positive step towards meeting this demand,” Godber said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3770]

CBRE Metropolitan Investments Director Will Carman said Brisbane’s population expansion and strong demand fundamentals were driving interest in city development sites, but he noted that developer attitudes were shifting.

“As construction pricing continues to climb, developers are becoming more discerning. The focus has shifted toward delivering high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand,” Carman said.

He also noted the issue of affordability, with Brisbane’s median house price having crossed the $1 million mark.

“This reflects not only the city’s strong fundamentals and sustained demand, but also the growing challenge of affordability - particularly for first-home buyers. This price growth underscores the importance of strategic planning and quality development to meet evolving market expectations,” Carman said.

Developer focus shifts to high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand, new CBRE analysis shows

Challenges and opportunities in Brisbane’s residential market as supply lags

Preliminary data by research giant Charter Keck Cramer reveals a 54 per cent decline in Build to Sell apartments across Australia's capital cities, while the Build to Rent boom continues with a 378 per cent increase over the last five years.

Charter Keck Cramer's upcoming National State of the Market Report - Key Metropolitan Areas, scheduled for release in September, will reveal&nbsp;a dramatic transformation in apartment supply patterns across Australia's capital cities between FY2016-2020 and FY2021-2025.

The Build to Sell (BTS) apartment sector has experienced a substantial contraction, with total supply falling by 54 per cent compared to the previous five-year period. The decline represents a reduction of 149,200 apartments across all capital cities.

<img alt="BTS Charter Keck Cramer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3db2ddf3-e7c0-481f-b8b9-63efb365cb80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.26.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bsQl8inhZA7FeiPamnGvw1tse0obBdSd" />

Sydney led the downturn with a decrease of 73,600 apartments, followed by Melbourne (-42,800) and Brisbane (-26,800). Perth and Adelaide also recorded significant declines of 6,400 and 2,400 apartments respectively. Only Gold Coast and Canberra bucked the trend, with modest increases of 500 and 2,300 apartments.

In stark contrast, the Build to Rent (BTR) sector has emerged as a major force in the apartment market, recording a remarkable 378% increase in supply. This growth added 8,590 apartments across the capital cities during FY2021-2025. Melbourne dominated BTR growth with 6,160 additional apartments, while Sydney contributed 2,100 units. Brisbane and Canberra also recorded growth of 800 and 330 apartments respectively. Gold Coast and Perth recorded minor declines, while Adelaide maintained steady levels.

<img alt="BTR CKC" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ca13ffd4-ab93-4828-afd2-4c3dccbd2b51" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.28.54%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=SXNnpcJuFD36ViWOwF6izBBqcQc3NWao" />

“These preliminary findings indicate a fundamental shift in Australia's apartment development landscape, with traditional Build to Sell models giving way to institutional Build to Rent developments,” said Richard Temlett, Charter Keck Cramer’s National Executive Director of Research.

"This transition reflects changing investor preferences, regulatory environments and housing affordability challenges across major metropolitan areas.”

The complete Charter Keck Cramer National State of the Market Report – Key Metropolitan Areas will provide comprehensive analysis of these trends, their underlying drivers and implications for developers, investors and policymakers when released in September.

Build to Sell apartment supply drops 54% in five years across Australian capital cities

The <a href="/developments/gold-coast-qld">Gold Coast</a> has long been one of Australia’s most popular holiday destinations. It had sun, sand, surf, and Surfers Paradise, the epicentre of the action. It was lined with skyscrapers that rivalled anywhere in the southern hemisphere for height. Even today, there’s nowhere in Australia, and arguably the world, with towers of that scale so close to the sand.

Apartments were made for investors and holidaymakers who would snap them up every weekend all year round. It was an arrangement that suited everyone. But with that arrangement came a moniker. The Gold Coast became a ‘boom-bust market’. For the growth the market would see, there were equal busts.

Caitlin Rosenboom, Head of Projects for Ray White on the Gold Coast, says the Gold Coast property markets were heavily influenced by external factors it essentially couldn’t control.

“Because the Gold Coast was traditionally always a holiday destination, the type of apartment built was for that,” Rosenboom says. “But when the economy wobbled, like it has at certain points over the last few decades—such as during the GFC—the Gold Coast market was impacted more than anywhere else. The first thing to go in an economic downturn is the secondary residence, and proportionally, the Gold Coast was well skewed toward those properties.”

Rosenboom said it then became a fight to the bottom. “Once one person, whose hand was forced to sell, sold, then it reset prices in a negative way. Then there would be floods of listings and little demand, which put incredible downward pressure on pricing.”

Indeed, during the GFC, data from Ray White showed house prices across the Gold Coast region declined by around nine per cent across 2010 and 2011 combined, just a little more than the eight per cent for units. But looking more granularly, the picture was a bit different.

Since then, however, the Gold Coast has truly rid itself of its so-called boom-bust reputation. 
From the start of 2012 to the end of 2020, house values rose by over 56 per cent, showing growth in every calendar year apart from 2018, when prices contracted by just one per cent. It was the same story for units over the same period, albeit with slightly more modest 30 per cent growth, and also with a minor one per cent dip in 2012, which houses didn’t experience.

“The Gold Coast has really matured as a region over the last decade,” Rosenboom said on the property market growth.

“It became more and more attractive as a place not only to holiday but to live. Better, larger apartments were being built, alongside an increased level of infrastructure upgrades and investment.”

The Gold Coast was certainly a region on the up and up. However, uncertainty reigned once again in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the country, locking both international and state borders.

The fear of another economic downturn, much like the GFC, could have put the Gold Coast in a problematic position, with a lack of tourism driving the economy. In the end, it was the opposite.

The way the Queensland Government handled the pandemic was broadcast around the country. Gold Coast locals were still on the waves, enjoying coffee on the beach, and living life, while Melburnians weren’t allowed out of their houses, and Sydneysiders weren’t much better off. 
The race was on for those southern capital city dwellers to rush to the Gold Coast.

“The pandemic changed everything,” Rosenboom said. “A lot of people who lived in Sydney and Melbourne made the move for what they considered almost to be a secondment to another part of Australia. The vast majority hadn’t been to the Gold Coast before, or not since they were kids coming on holiday. When they realised how far the Gold Coast had come, no longer just a big holiday resort, most never left.”

Over the 12 months from June 2022 to June 2023, the Gold Coast gained nearly 20,000 people, accounting for 13 per cent of the migration to the whole of Queensland. The property market became one of the best-performing in the country as the demand v supply equation was heavily skewed toward the demand side. New apartment developments that came to market over 2021 and 2022 would spend less than a few weeks online before being sold out. Prices were both unrealistic and realistic at the same time.

Then came another potential bump in the road. The borders reopened, and employees had to show their face in the office, albeit just a few days a week. Would this be the start of the decline the Gold Coast property market hadn’t felt in a decade? In short, no. No, it wasn’t.

Much to the surprise of most in the property industry, growth continued. Another stellar growth cycle in 2023 and 2024 saw house prices rise by 57 per cent in the four years to December 2024, the same growth they saw in double the time up to 2024. Units boomed by 57 per cent too over the four years to the end of 2024, almost double the 30 per cent in the eight years prior.

“The Gold Coast is no longer a holiday destination but a lifestyle destination,” Rosenboom said. 
“The pandemic shone a light on everything locals already loved about the Gold Coast. We have gone from being dominated by holiday lets to an owner-occupier-driven market due to the increased infrastructure, medical facilities, industry, and employment opportunities.”

Rosenboom has seen a mix of buyers at ARC Residences, the luxury tower on Garfield Terrace, considered the best street in Surfers Paradise, given it’s the only one that faces the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=111652 project_image_fid=257250]

A few Sydneysiders, locals from the northern Gold Coast suburbs like Hope Island and Helensvale, as well as a couple of overseas buyers, have all staked their claim in the building of just 37 half- and full-floor apartments with an oceanfront pool, gym with yoga room and infrared sauna, and a cinema, along with a suite of other amenities that are more common in a luxury hotel.

Rosenboom believes there’s no reason why the Gold Coast market should take a step back at all. “We’re now in an interest rate environment where they are only going down and not up, which tends to fuel further increases in price.”

All of the pent-up demand is even without taking into account the 2032 Brisbane Summer Olympics, and the G:LINK light rail extends all the way down to the airport and Coolangatta, essentially connecting the whole of the Gold Coast. If the response to the light rail is anything like Sydney’s, then values are in for one hell of a ride.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=111652 project_image_fid=257251]

Ray White Senior Economist Nerida Conisbee echoed Rosenboom’s sentiment, suggesting the economic stability the Gold Coast now has, with the shortness in supply, scarcity of land, and in particular, the rapid expansion of its population. 
 
“The influx of nearly 20,000 new residents in a single year is a testament to the Gold Coast's appeal, offering a combination of lifestyle, employment opportunities, and relative affordability compared to other major Australian cities,” Conisbee says, adding, however, that this huge increase in population is putting pressure on the housing market.

“Despite the positive outlook, the Gold Coast faces significant challenges in accommodating its projected growth. The shortage of land means that the city will need to embrace higher-density development to house its expanding population.”

“A lifestyle destination rather than a holiday destination” Why the Gold Coast is now more boom than bust

With interest rate cuts set to drive the market in 2025, certain <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a> suburbs are poised to outperform others across the city.

Research by property data analytics firm, CoreLogic, shows that higher-priced markets, particularly those with a high concentration of investors, tend to be the most responsive to cash rate reductions.

Their research shows units in the Glen Eira area will see the most price growth in units, over 12 per cent, should the RBA cut the official cash rate by one per cent (four 25 basis point cuts).

The forecasted price growth bodes for those suburbs in and around Cauflield.

Those looking at purchasing an apartment in <a href="/buildings/eva-elsternwick-village-apartments-241-glen-huntly-road-elsternwick">EVA Elsternwick</a>, in the heart of <a href="/developments/elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick</a> village and one of very few new apartment developments in recent years in the area, could see significant price growth in the short to medium term.

EVA, on Glen Huntly Road a short walk to all of Elsternwick's cafes and the train station, offers two and three-bedroom apartments starting from $845,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=93073 project_image_fid=218013]

&nbsp;

Following Glen Eira, Whitehorse-West is expected to see a 10.6 per cent increase, while Manningham-East is projected to rise by 9.8 per cent.

Hobsons Bay has also been identified as a growth area, with unit values forecast to climb by 8.3 per cent.

On the fringe of the Hobsons Bay local government area is Yarraville, where Bradmill Yarraville has been one of&nbsp;the most popular new developments in the surrouning area.

Families in particular have shown strong interest to the townhouses on offer in the small masterplanned community currently&nbsp;being developed by Frasers Property.

The first two stages at Bradmill, Pioneer and Monfort Townhomes, have been designed by renowned architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>. They have several different configurations, offering either three or four bedrooms across two or three levels.

The homes are designed for family living, with open-plan kitchen, living and dining areas flowing onto private gardens, courtyards, or balconies. Single or double garages also offer convenient access to the indoors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134727 project_image_fid=317877]

The neighbourhood of Bradmill will be one of the most connected in&nbsp;<a href="/developments/melbourne-vic" target="">Melbourne</a>'s inner west. Future Bradmill residents will have exclusive access to Bradmill Social, a hub for exercising, co-working, and group events.

Linear Park will run through Bradmilll,&nbsp;connecting residents directly to the vast green spaces and sports grounds of adjacent McIvor Reserve, and a stroll to Bradmill Quarter’s 8,000 sqm retail precinct and the vibrant dining and community spaces of The Arbory.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134727 project_image_fid=311275]

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Other suburbs expected to benefit from rate cuts include Maroondah (9.1 per cent), Bayside (8.5 per cent), Cardinia (8.4 per cent), Casey-North (8.3 per cent), Dandenong (7.8 per cent), and Kingston (7.4 per cent).

CoreLogic's Head of Research, Eliza Owen, says certain markets will see a bigger boost from rate reductions than others, and it may be because of market characteristics like price point, location and investor interest.

"CoreLogic estimates based on previous periods of rate reductions that national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1 per cent for each one percentage point decline in the cash rate," Owen says.

"Relatively expensive markets have historically shown stronger responses to reduced cash rate settings. A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and&nbsp;<a href="/developments/melbourne-vic" target="">Melbourne</a>&nbsp;housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities."

A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities

The Melbourne suburbs that will see the biggest uplift in apartment values after interest rate cuts

With interest rate cuts on the horizon, certain Sydney suburbs are poised for the strongest gains in property values.

Research by property data analytics firm, CoreLogic, shows that higher-priced markets, particularly those with a high concentration of investors, tend to be the most responsive to cash rate reductions.

<a href="/developments/chatswood-nsw-2067">Chatswood</a> and <a href="/developments/lane-cove-nsw-2066">Lane Cove</a> are projected to see a significant uplift of over 16 per cent if the RBA cuts the official cash rate by one percentage point (or four 25 basis point cuts).

The forecasted price growth bodes for those soon to settle at Sterling in <a href="/developments/lane-cove-north-nsw-2066">Lane Cove North</a> by builder-developer <a href="/developers/scion">Scion</a>.

Approaching completion, <a href="/new-apartments/sterling-lane-cove-north-2-merinda-street-lane-cove-north-nsw-2066">Sterling</a> comprises just 50 one, two and three-bedroom apartments set amid nature but within close proximity to key commercial retail hubs like Chatswood and&nbsp;<a href="/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303417]

In Chatswood, another suburb that is benefitting from the extended Sydney Metro, Melbourne-based developer Goldfields is into construction at <a href="/new-apartments/the-bryson-of-chatswood-871-877-pacific-highway-chatswood">The Bryson</a>, one of the first developments approved under the new&nbsp;Chatswood&nbsp;CBD Planning and Urban Design Strategy.

The 70 one, two and three-bedroom apartments spread across a 26-level Make Architects-designed building just 550 metres from the Chatswood Metro Station.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=21170 project_image_fid=210274]

The Eastern Suburbs, one of Sydney’s most prestigious residential areas, is expected to see strong growth of nearly 13 per cent if rates drop by one per cent.

Builder-developer <a href="/developers/toga-group">TOGA</a> is well placed in Sydney's east with their recently completed <a href="/buildings/surry-hills-village-redfern-6-14-baptist-street-redfern-nsw-2016">Surry Hills Village</a>, their landmark mixed-use development they recently completed.

There are just a handful of apartments and townhouses left in the building at the end of Crown Street. Surry Hills Village also is home to Wunderlich Lane, the newest go-to hospitality precinct in Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9302 project_image_fid=306333]

Just up Cleveland Street on Anzac Parade, TOGA is developing <a href="/new-apartments/the-kensington-147-151-anzac-parade-kensington">The Kensington</a>, strategically located not only opposite a light rail stop giving future residents easy access into the city, but a short walk to the burgeoninig Randwick health precinct, as well as the main campus for UNSW.

TOGA says The Kensington, 142 one, two and three-bedroom apartments above a retail strip, is one of the <a href="/news/nsw/among-the-most-well-connected-apartment-developments-toga-has-produced-inside-the-kensington">most connected developments they've ever produced</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110959 project_image_fid=307651]

Beyond Sydney’s premium inner suburbs, areas outside of Sydney are also expected to boom from rate cuts.

CoreLogic says units in&nbsp;<a href="/developments/dural-nsw-2158">Dural</a>&nbsp;to <a href="/developments/wisemans-ferry-nsw-2775">Wisemans Ferry</a>&nbsp;will be the best performing, with increases of up to 18 per cent, while&nbsp;<a href="/developments/campbelltown-nsw-2560">Campbelltown</a>&nbsp;units could rise by 16 per cent.

"Certain markets will see a bigger boost from rate reductions than others, and it may be because of market characteristics like price point, location and investor interest," CoreLogic's Head of Research, Eliza Owen, says.

"CoreLogic estimates based on previous periods of rate reductions that national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1 per cent for each one percentage point decline in the cash rate.

"Relatively expensive markets have historically shown stronger responses to reduced cash rate settings. A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities."

A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities

The Sydney suburbs that will see the biggest uplift in apartment values after interest rate cuts

The recently released building approval data from the&nbsp;Australian Bureau of Statistics shows new home building in New South Wales to be at its lowest level in 12 years.

You'd have to go back to 2012 when New South Wales saw lower approvals that 2024. Just 42,800 homes were approved in 2024, five per cent below 2023, and 42 per cent lower than the calendar&nbsp;year peak of over 73,000 approvals in 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136076 project_image_fid=212615] 
 
“Building approvals remain our best indicator of future supply. With the disappointment of 2024 still top of mind, it is time that Government looks to 2025 and beyond to get NSW back on track to achieve our state's share of the National Housing Accord targets,” said Stuart Ayres, CEO, UDIA NSW. 
 
The differences between the highs of 2016 and lows of 2024 can be seen across all housing typologies, but are&nbsp;most pronounced in the apartment market where new approvals sit more than 22,000 lower than&nbsp;in 2016.

<img alt="Aryes" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2fc7f389-7d32-4d28-8911-84c2b8384791" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-02-03%20at%203.27.37%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=e9mk1OT80dgpK2dr4xc7YBSElhci9OrS" /> 
 
“The sharp declines in apartment approvals reinforce&nbsp;UDIA’s ongoing messaging that the combination of weak feasibility and slow planning reform&nbsp;has led to a failure to implement the immediate step change that was desperately needed in infill development to achieve the Accord target of 75,000 new homes a year,” Ayres said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303417] 
 
The detached housing market has also fared poorly, with approvals falling below 22,000 in the 12 months to December 2024, for the first time since January 2014.

The development industry continues&nbsp;to wait for details on the Low and Mid-Rise Reform, and first tranche of EOIs from the Housing Delivery Authority. UDIA says the Government also needs to remain focused on supporting the more feasible greenfield market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148093 project_image_fid=319996]

“Without a pivot back to feasible greenfield development with a diversity of housing typologies, NSW will keep falling further behind its housing targets,” Ayres added. 
 
“These poor building approvals reinforce the desperate need for reform of the Planning Act and urgency in implementing the Low and Mid-Rise reforms."

The differences between the highs of 2016 and lows of 2024 can be seen across all housing typologies, but are most pronounced in the apartment market where new approvals sit more than 22,000 lower than in 2016.

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