With interest rate cuts on the horizon, certain Sydney suburbs are poised for the strongest gains in property values.

Research by property data analytics firm, CoreLogic, shows that higher-priced markets, particularly those with a high concentration of investors, tend to be the most responsive to cash rate reductions.

<a href="/developments/chatswood-nsw-2067">Chatswood</a> and <a href="/developments/lane-cove-nsw-2066">Lane Cove</a> are projected to see a significant uplift of over 16 per cent if the RBA cuts the official cash rate by one percentage point (or four 25 basis point cuts).

The forecasted price growth bodes for those soon to settle at Sterling in <a href="/developments/lane-cove-north-nsw-2066">Lane Cove North</a> by builder-developer <a href="/developers/scion">Scion</a>.

Approaching completion, <a href="/new-apartments/sterling-lane-cove-north-2-merinda-street-lane-cove-north-nsw-2066">Sterling</a> comprises just 50 one, two and three-bedroom apartments set amid nature but within close proximity to key commercial retail hubs like Chatswood and&nbsp;<a href="/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303417]

In Chatswood, another suburb that is benefitting from the extended Sydney Metro, Melbourne-based developer Goldfields is into construction at <a href="/new-apartments/the-bryson-of-chatswood-871-877-pacific-highway-chatswood">The Bryson</a>, one of the first developments approved under the new&nbsp;Chatswood&nbsp;CBD Planning and Urban Design Strategy.

The 70 one, two and three-bedroom apartments spread across a 26-level Make Architects-designed building just 550 metres from the Chatswood Metro Station.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=21170 project_image_fid=210274]

The Eastern Suburbs, one of Sydney’s most prestigious residential areas, is expected to see strong growth of nearly 13 per cent if rates drop by one per cent.

Builder-developer <a href="/developers/toga-group">TOGA</a> is well placed in Sydney's east with their recently completed <a href="/buildings/surry-hills-village-redfern-6-14-baptist-street-redfern-nsw-2016">Surry Hills Village</a>, their landmark mixed-use development they recently completed.

There are just a handful of apartments and townhouses left in the building at the end of Crown Street. Surry Hills Village also is home to Wunderlich Lane, the newest go-to hospitality precinct in Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9302 project_image_fid=306333]

Just up Cleveland Street on Anzac Parade, TOGA is developing <a href="/new-apartments/the-kensington-147-151-anzac-parade-kensington">The Kensington</a>, strategically located not only opposite a light rail stop giving future residents easy access into the city, but a short walk to the burgeoninig Randwick health precinct, as well as the main campus for UNSW.

TOGA says The Kensington, 142 one, two and three-bedroom apartments above a retail strip, is one of the <a href="/news/nsw/among-the-most-well-connected-apartment-developments-toga-has-produced-inside-the-kensington">most connected developments they've ever produced</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110959 project_image_fid=307651]

Beyond Sydney’s premium inner suburbs, areas outside of Sydney are also expected to boom from rate cuts.

CoreLogic says units in&nbsp;<a href="/developments/dural-nsw-2158">Dural</a>&nbsp;to <a href="/developments/wisemans-ferry-nsw-2775">Wisemans Ferry</a>&nbsp;will be the best performing, with increases of up to 18 per cent, while&nbsp;<a href="/developments/campbelltown-nsw-2560">Campbelltown</a>&nbsp;units could rise by 16 per cent.

"Certain markets will see a bigger boost from rate reductions than others, and it may be because of market characteristics like price point, location and investor interest," CoreLogic's Head of Research, Eliza Owen, says.

"CoreLogic estimates based on previous periods of rate reductions that national dwelling values would increase an average of 6.1 per cent for each one percentage point decline in the cash rate.

"Relatively expensive markets have historically shown stronger responses to reduced cash rate settings. A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities."

A reduction in the cash rate could spur a recovery trend in the high end of the Sydney and Melbourne housing market, which tend to be the bellwether for broader market recoveries in those cities

Joel Robinson

The Sydney suburbs that will see the biggest uplift in apartment values after interest rate cuts

The recently released building approval data from the&nbsp;Australian Bureau of Statistics shows new home building in New South Wales to be at its lowest level in 12 years.

You'd have to go back to 2012 when New South Wales saw lower approvals that 2024. Just 42,800 homes were approved in 2024, five per cent below 2023, and 42 per cent lower than the calendar&nbsp;year peak of over 73,000 approvals in 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136076 project_image_fid=212615] 
 
“Building approvals remain our best indicator of future supply. With the disappointment of 2024 still top of mind, it is time that Government looks to 2025 and beyond to get NSW back on track to achieve our state's share of the National Housing Accord targets,” said Stuart Ayres, CEO, UDIA NSW. 
 
The differences between the highs of 2016 and lows of 2024 can be seen across all housing typologies, but are&nbsp;most pronounced in the apartment market where new approvals sit more than 22,000 lower than&nbsp;in 2016.

<img alt="Aryes" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2fc7f389-7d32-4d28-8911-84c2b8384791" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-02-03%20at%203.27.37%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=e9mk1OT80dgpK2dr4xc7YBSElhci9OrS" /> 
 
“The sharp declines in apartment approvals reinforce&nbsp;UDIA’s ongoing messaging that the combination of weak feasibility and slow planning reform&nbsp;has led to a failure to implement the immediate step change that was desperately needed in infill development to achieve the Accord target of 75,000 new homes a year,” Ayres said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136108 project_image_fid=303417] 
 
The detached housing market has also fared poorly, with approvals falling below 22,000 in the 12 months to December 2024, for the first time since January 2014.

The development industry continues&nbsp;to wait for details on the Low and Mid-Rise Reform, and first tranche of EOIs from the Housing Delivery Authority. UDIA says the Government also needs to remain focused on supporting the more feasible greenfield market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148093 project_image_fid=319996]

“Without a pivot back to feasible greenfield development with a diversity of housing typologies, NSW will keep falling further behind its housing targets,” Ayres added. 
 
“These poor building approvals reinforce the desperate need for reform of the Planning Act and urgency in implementing the Low and Mid-Rise reforms."

The differences between the highs of 2016 and lows of 2024 can be seen across all housing typologies, but are most pronounced in the apartment market where new approvals sit more than 22,000 lower than in 2016.

Apartment supply suffers as NSW building approvals hit 12-year low

Australia’s growing ageing population will underpin the opportunity for a significant housing response, with the possibility of shaping future demand and dwelling requirements across the nation.&nbsp;

Based upon ABS population projections across Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne, Greater Brisbane and the ACT, the population aged 55+ will increase by 4.5 million people by 2071, highlighting the ongoing requirement for new housing solutions to be delivered across the market to cater towards both this demographic and others impacted by their emergence. This population cohort (55+ years) currently represents around 1 in 4 people and is anticipated to shift to around 1 in 2.5 people by 2071 across each of the capital city markets above. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 
Through the medium term, Greater Melbourne is set to see the largest nominal increase of people aged 55-74 years old, followed by Greater Sydney and South-East Queensland, making it a prime location for right-sizers, however, the growth across each will support strong right sizing opportunities in each respective market.

“The right-sizer cohort is increasingly reflecting a blend of the established “Baby Boomers” and emerging “Generation X” that are ageing into this cohort,"&nbsp;Managing Director of Residential at Colliers, Diana Sarcasmo, said.

"With the recognition of changing expectations and aspirations across the generations, housing choice and requirements will need to be a dynamic consideration for the future. This increase in population will underpin the critical decisions of property developers and policymakers moving forward, as they need to cater for the ‘right-sizer’ cohort.”

As part of efforts to address Australia’s housing supply crisis, many older homeowners are opting to move out of large, underutilized homes into apartments that better suit their lifestyle needs. This trend frees up larger houses for families, making better use of existing housing stock and creating new opportunities for those seeking more space.

“While right-sizing is not a standalone solution, it highlights how individual choices can contribute to alleviating housing pressures. Combined with broader initiatives like increased construction and urban planning, this movement represents a small but meaningful step towards more sustainable housing solutions in Australia,” Sarcasmo added.

As of 2021, the number of detached homes owned outright by households over 55 in capital city markets totals 855,260, according to the ABS. In comparison, the total of current occupied apartment stock throughout the market is 939,763. This highlights the potential impact that downsizing detached homeowners may have on apartment demand, especially as the ageing population continues to grow).

Rightsizers have highlighted a reduction in dwelling size, decluttering, more manageable internal and external spaces as well as potential financial benefits being prime motivators for moving. &nbsp;Many of these benefits can be facilitated through well-designed apartment options, with right-sizers able to use funds from the sale of a detached home to support their lifestyle into retirement.&nbsp;

While historically there has been a higher representation across two-bedroom options occupied within apartments owned outright by these cohorts, it is expected this new trend will support an increasing push and opportunity for three-bedroom options, from this right-sizer cohort.

“The increasing representation of couples without children residing within apartments has the potential to support a greater demand for three-bedroom options. This trend has been observed across recent movers into apartments as well as detached houses. Three bedrooms offer increasing space for a larger ageing household with the flexibility to repurpose rooms to align with right-sizer’s lifestyles as they age,” Ms Sarcasmo said.

Historically, apartment stock has had a greater focus on one- and two-bedroom options, as apartments are increasingly required to support more permanent and diverse households. It is anticipated that three-bedroom stock will increasingly reflect the demands of these households in the future.

“To date, there has been a focus on smaller scale projects occupied by right-sizer and retiree households, however, they have also demonstrated acceptance of a diversity of project types (including medium and higher density). Developers should increasingly have these occupiers in mind when considering their project designs and product compositions with consideration for the significance of this demographic shift,” Ms Sarcasmo said.

Capital cities across the east coast will need to adapt to the surge of ‘right-sizers’, with innovative solutions required to meet growing demand.

Ageing population to drive downsizing trend and force major rethink of Australia’s housing response: Colliers

The monthly dwelling approval update by the Australian Bureau of Statistics again painted a grim outlook for Australia's new-build environment.

Total dwellings approved fell 3.6 per cent in November to 14,998.

There were most positives found in Victoria and Queensland where dwelling approvals remained stable and closer to their targets, although New South Wales is tracking well behind where they're forecasted to be.

The total number of dwellings approved in NSW was 42,109 over the 12 months until November 2024, 34,000 short of meeting the National Housing Accord quota for NSW.

"Despite a range of State and Federal programs designed to promote housing supply, dwelling approvals data from the last 12 months shows a chronic trend in the wrong direction," Urban Taskforce CEO Tom Forrest says, adding the new data shows there is a "mountain to climb".

"The data for NSW shows that Premier Minns is on the right track in looking to fast-track planning through the Housing Delivery Authority and through changes to the planning laws. The key to success will be through ensuring that new housing and employment remain the focus, and that planners don’t become distracted with other portfolio imperatives."

There has been a -10 per cent annual decline in approvals across all housing typologies in New South Wales. Apartment approvals declined a massive -26 per cent in the 12 months to November.

Stuart Ayres, CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) NSW, says the&nbsp;NSW Government has a lot of work to do in 2025 to turn around the housing supply crisis that continues to inflict more pain on future homeowners. 
 
"With&nbsp;approvals&nbsp;in the detached house market sitting at a 10-year low, it is important that the Housing Delivery Authority (HDA) remains ambitious in supporting greenfield subdivisions," Ayres says. 
 
"The hope of the side at the moment is the Housing Delivery Authority. It is absolutely critical that it facilitates high demand and more feasible greenfield development and subdivisions, and not focus exclusively on less feasible infill projects."

&nbsp;

Multi-unit approvals in the three months to November 2024 climbed significantly in Western Australia (+207.5 per cent) compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. This was followed by Queensland (+16.0 per cent), Victoria (+9.4 per cent) and New South Wales (+1.6 per cent). The Northern Territory registered a flat result. Declines were recorded in Tasmania (-85.7 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-82.4 per cent), and South Australia (-15.1 per cent).

Apartment approvals in NSW declined a massive -26 per cent in the 12 months to November.

"Mountain to climb" as new home building activity falls

Broadbeach has been dethroned as the most popular suburb on the Gold Coast.

Data from MatterFact, the data partner of Apartments.com.au, revealed that&nbsp;<a href="/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a> was the most enquired-on suburb in November, overtaking <a href="/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a>, which had held the top spot every month in 2024—except for May, when Palm Beach last claimed the title.

Interest in the Gold Coast tends to surge in November, December, and January, particularly from people based in southern states and Brisbane who are planning to holiday in the region.

Palm Beach has been the <a href="/news/qld/palm-beach-the-most-indemand-off-the-plan-apartment-market-on-the-gold-coast">most searched suburb on the Gold Coast</a> for the past four quarters on Apartments.com.au, but the scarcity of new projects had left much of that demand unmet.

The last project to come to market in Palm Beach was La Belle&nbsp;Marquee Development Partners, 74 premium beachfront apartments.

The newest development in Palm Beach, just the second to launch in 2024, is tapping into that unmet demand, a segment of the market which has been overlooked in recent years.

Developer <a href="/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has created a new brand, Flourish, to cater to the likes of first home buyers and rightsizers, not just affluent downsizers or holidaymakers.

The brand's debut project,&nbsp;Flourish on Sixth, offers a range of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, with one-bedroom units starting from under $600,000. These apartments have been quickly snapped up, and while many of the two-bedroom units are also sold, there are still some available around the $1 million mark—an unprecedented price in today’s Gold Coast apartment market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=306036]

With amenities including an 800 sqm rooftop featuring a heated lap pool, private cabanas, and a wellness centre, the project delivers high-end communal spaces while maintaining affordability.&nbsp;

The inclusion of shared electric vehicle services and other sustainable features adds further appeal for buyers seeking modern, environmentally conscious living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=306037]

Demand is set to continue into 2025. Next year the local market will welcome back <a href="/new-apartments/villea-palm-beach-26-mawarra-street-palm-beach-qld-4221">Villea Palm Beach</a>, by Sydney and Melbourne developer <a href="/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a>.

Gordon Corp is teaming up again with the Mathieson family to launch their Jefferson Lane project which will bring another&nbsp;47 two and three-bedroom apartments to the undersupplied market.

Sydney-based Chanine Developments and local developer Macquarie York are focussing on half and full-floor apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146527]

Palm Beach has been the most searched suburb on the Gold Coast for the past four quarters on Urban.com.au, but the scarcity of new projects had left much of that demand unmet

Enquiry for new apartments in Palm Beach hits 18-month high

The Gold Coast new apartment market is showing no signs of slowing down.

The latest Colliers Market Overview for September revealed that the average price of a new apartment has surged to a new high of $1.77 million.

The latest price for the June quarter has risen from almost $1.4 million compared to the same period last year as the market continues to be driven higher by high demand and constrained supply, amid rising construction and debt costs.

However, Colliers says it’s not only buyers at the luxury end of the market that are feeling the price pinch as most houses on the <a href="/developments/gold-coast-qld">Gold Coast</a> are currently selling between $1 million and $2 million – a massive increase over the past four years as the Gold Coast construction sector struggles to keep pace with interstate and intrastate migration.

“Apart from the record median price for new apartments, the key findings in our latest report reveal the dramatic price growth of residential property on the Gold Coast since the pandemic,” said Steven King, the Gold Coast Director in Charge at Colliers.

“Just a few short years ago, the dominant price bracket for house sales on the Gold Coast was between $400,000 and $700,000 whereas now it is $1 million to $2 million.

“Price growth has effectively been supercharged on the Gold Coast although we are now seeing affordability, particularly for homes, beginning to temper that growth.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=234102]

The Colliers research reveals that Gold Coast home prices have increased 76 per cent since the pandemic in 2020 and 12 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June.

In 2024, houses that sold for $1 million or more accounted for 59 per cent of total sales, which is up from 18 per cent in 2020, as population growth intensified the pressure on prices. House sales above $2 million have increased their share of total transactions from 3 per cent to 13 per cent during the same period.&nbsp;

Apartment prices in general have also grown at a heady pace over the past four years - although not as quickly as houses - at 60 per cent to a median price of $761,000. Colliers points out that apartment prices on the Gold Coast are now comparable to house prices in 2020 and early 2021.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290033]

“While the latest median price for new apartments of $1.77 million has been driven by sustained demand and limited supply at the top end of the market, it actually reflects what is happening across the broader property market on the Gold Coast,” King added.

“Certainly, prices at the very top have pushed new highs and clearly set this sector apart from the broader market, but it’s also a bellwether of where the Gold Coast market, in general, is heading as affordability issues hamper some sectors.

“For the moment, we are not seeing a lot of push-back from buyers at the premium end of the market but, if this sector of the market slows, we could expect this to eventually impact the broader market.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107928 project_image_fid=234096]

The Colliers report points out that the Gold Coast economy has grown strongly since the pandemic and so has its appeal that has led to more visitors, residents, and investors, who have supported the steady increase in property prices.&nbsp;

Migration has also driven a changing demographic on the Gold Coast since the pandemic, led by an influx of professionals and investors drawn to the region’s modern facilities and expanding infrastructure.

Colliers Residential Director David Higgins says rising&nbsp;costs are playing a part in overall price growth on the Gold Coast, but so is a shortfall in supply with the latest dwelling approvals showing the Gold Coast is failing to deliver enough homes to meet the targeted population growth of the next two decades.

Colliers notes that the rise in the median price for new apartments shows that underlying demand has yet to wane, which continues to support prices for available development sites, especially those in prime locations with protected view corridors that facilitate premium residential offerings.&nbsp;

“The values for these transactions have remained relatively stable while developers of premium boutique projects are passing on higher construction costs to buyers,” Higgins said.

Colliers says that luxury developments that command premiums are particularly attractive to downsizers by offering exclusivity, quality and prime locations.&nbsp;

The development of new apartments is currently focused on the central Gold Coast precinct, which comprises Southport, Surfers Paradise, and Broadbeach.

The June quarter saw 331 new apartment sales, with V&amp;A at Broadbeach and Imperial Square at Southport contributing nearly 50 per cent of these sales.&nbsp;

Colliers points out that the Gold Coast economy has grown strongly since the pandemic and so has its appeal that has led to more visitors, residents, and investors, who have supported the steady increase in property prices.

Gold Coast new apartment prices hit record high

A national new home building recovery is in sight, but state government housing policies risk stalling the recovery.

That's the view from HIA Senior Economist, Matt King, after the HIA&nbsp;released its Economic and Industry Outlook report.

The report includes updated forecasts for new home building and renovation activity nationally and for each of the eight states and territories.

“At the national level, demand for new homes is accelerating and this is largely due to the fact that the RBA hasn’t increased interest rates for a year, population growth is still elevated, the unemployment rate remains low and real incomes have stabilised,” King said.

“While activity is picking up, the varied nature of activity levels across capital city and regional markets continues to be pronounced.

“We have confidence that new home-building activity across most markets will continue to improve as we transition into the new year."

King said however that <a href="/developments/sydney-nsw">Sydney</a> remains an outlier, and there is still no indication of a near-term rebound in both detached houses and multi-residential buildings.

“New home building in the Sydney basin remains exceptionally low, primarily due to exceptionally high land prices and an ongoing excessive impost of housing taxes and infrastructure charges."

<a href="/developments/perth-wa">Perth</a>, <a href="/developments/adelaide-sa">Adelaide</a>, and South East Queensland continues to lead the way in new contract sales and building approvals, despite ongoing supply-side constraints.

In the September quarter of 2024, building approvals increased from the corresponding quarter last year in Western Australia (+60.1 per cent), Queensland (+24.2 per cent) and South Australia (+16.3 per cent) in seasonally adjusted terms.

The calendar year 2024 has produced a growing divergence of both geography and typology.

The detached home building sector looks promising, evidenced most recently by detached house approvals across Australia rising by 6.1 per cent in the month of September to 9,890. This was the highest monthly number of detached house approvals in two years.

King said in contrast, the apartment sector "remains constrained",&nbsp;and is unlikely to experience any material recovery before mid-2025.

"The sector continues to be dampened by skilled labour shortages, business credit constraints and the aftermath of significant building material cost escalation.

“It is anticipated that detached house starts will rise steadily from a trough of 100,230 in 2023 to 115,690 in 2027. If the supply of land and labour are addressed, there is significant upside potential for this forecast.

“With relatively stable economic conditions nationally, home prices will remain elevated, rental vacancies will remain acutely low and demand for new homes will recover."

King says the&nbsp;extent of the recovery in new home building will be determined by the ability of governments to ease the barriers to home building.

“Housing investment is encouraged by the certainty of policy settings. Recent state government announcements to levy increased surcharges on foreign investors and introduce taxes on short-term rental accommodation are unhelpful at a time when stability is needed to achieve the 1.2 million home target.

“Failure to implement policies such as expedited land release, concessions on property taxation, and accelerated development approval timeframes; risk slowing the rate of home building over the next five years.

“At the beginning of this upswing in the cycle and the initial stage of the National Housing Accord target period, now is the time to ensure that each state government housing policy mix is entirely pro-supply,” King stated.

There were 14,090 multi-unit commencements in the June quarter of 2024, which is 7.8 per cent lower compared to the previous quarter and the second weakest quarter in 12 years. This is expected to increase by 15.5 per cent in the September quarter to 16,260, followed by a modest 1.8 per cent increase in the December quarter.

The upswing will bring multi-unit starts in the calendar year 2024 to 62,190, the weakest year since 2011 (62,170). Multi-unit commencements are expected to rise by 11.5 per cent in 2025 to 69,360 and by a stronger 20.9 per cent in 2026 to 83,870, followed by a 20.3 per cent increase in 2027 to 100,860 and a 2028 peak of 104,380.

Home building increasing everywhere but Sydney

The volatile nature of apartment approvals is continuing to hindering the national housing target to build&nbsp;1.2 million new well‑located homes over five years.

The number of dwellings approved fell 6.1 per cent in August to 13,991, after an 11 per cent rise in July, according to data released by the ABS.

The decline was fuelled by a 16.5 per cent fall in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses (such as townhouses and apartments), to be 6.1 per cent lower than one year ago.

This was mainly driven by a decline in high-density apartment approvals. There were 1,214 apartments approved in nine or more storey blocks in August, down from 2,504 in July.

Matthew Kandelaars, Property Council Group Executive Policy and Advocacy, said it is disappointing to see the number of approvals go backwards after growth in July.

“We need to increase the number of homes approved and ensure a strong pipeline of apartment supply, to drive towards our housing targets at scale,” Kandelaars said.

“But the reality is that it has never been more difficult and costly to get apartments out of the ground.

“Apartment-killer taxes and planning systems continue to stall housing supply at a time when we can least afford it.

“Over the past year, we approved nearly 9,000 fewer apartments and townhouses across the country than the in preceding 12-month period. We need that number to increase month on month to build the homes Australians need."

In New South Wales, approvals declined by 14 per cent over the 12 months to August 2024 to just 42,400. They are now 45 per cent below their September peak.

“The decline in approvals is a warning that the path to reach our state’s housing targets is getting steeper by the month,” said Stuart Ayres, CEO, of UDIA NSW.

This pressure continues to be felt across the whole state, and across all dwelling types. As UDIA NSW analysis shows, all typologies reported an annual decline, with apartments again showing the most dramatic of declines of 30 per cent over the last twelve months to just 10,300 approvals.

<img alt="New Building Approvals, NSW, Rolling Annual to August 2024" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ff4c36ec-8788-4e6d-8776-9b1c4e37a3a4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/unnamed_0.png?VersionId=rO6K6BlNWp9t3uf6ncykilGX4ANsvY2h" />

Source ABS: UDIA NSW 
<img alt="No of Building Approvals" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1f56a5f2-4fe4-4a3f-a07d-eba8eb37da08" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/unnamed.jpg?VersionId=B.ag7p8G51AHHuKgYDdTBD5KYPmCR_8j" />

UDIA says it is continuing to advocate for more action to speed up the delivery of housing, including the Government adopting key recommendations made in the Productivity and Equality Commission’s Review of Housing Supply Challenges and Policy Options for New South Wales. The report called out the challenges of development feasibility, construction sector capacity, and a slow and inefficient planning system, which are all constraining the delivery of new housing.

The Productivity Commissioner’s report makes some common-sense recommendations that can unlock more housing supply more quickly and help us chart a course to deliver our housing targets.

The Commissioner confirmed the findings of UDIA’s recent. Making TODs Work research found that mid-rise apartment projects are largely unfeasible in most parts of Sydney and recommended a further increase in densities around the announced TOD sites, expanding them to 800m and adding more locations to the program.

“Doubling the permissible floor space ratio in the TOD 2 sites and greatly increasing density in other areas which are already zoned for high-density apartments will significantly increase the capacity of the industry to deliver housing," Stuart Ayres added.

Ayres also says an upfront Government investment now will be recouped through future developer contributions and state revenue like stamp duty, land tax and payroll taxes, which are only paid to the Government when new homes are built.

"The current business-as-usual approach of waiting years for developer contributions to accumulate, before there is enough available to start funding a handful of these housing-enabling projects, is clearly not delivering homes at the speed that communities need them.

Low apartment approvals hindering housing goals

“In Sydney and Melbourne, the top selling projects are more affordable. In Queensland, the Brisbane and Gold Coast markets are still targeting the luxury/premium market.” 

Affordable apartments driving Sydney and Melbourne markets, Brisbane and Gold Coast geared toward the premium: Urbis Apartment Essentials Q2 2024

The latest dwelling approvals released by the ABS paint a bleak picture for the future of housing in Australia.

Following two months of growth, total dwelling approvals dropped -6.5 per cent in June, to be back around 12 year lows.

The most glaring statistic was that the declines were driven by New South Wales (-18.8 per cent) and Victoria (-13.5 per cent), the home of two of our largest capital cities and immigration hotspots.

Over the past 12 months, there have been a total of 162,892 dwellings approved, compared to 177,936 in the 12 months prior, representing an -8.5 per cent decrease. It's the lowest number of dwellings approved on a financial year basis since 2011/12.

Dwelling approvals had been trending upwards, marginally, in the two months prior to the latest release.&nbsp;

The result came in below consensus expectations of a milder -2 per cent fall although that mainly reflected a sharp drop in the volatile units component.&nbsp;

Approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses (townhouses, apartments and terrace houses) fell by -19.7 per cent in June, reaching the second-lowest monthly level recorded since January 2012.&nbsp;

<h2>Dwelling Approvals by Building Type</h2>

<img alt="Dwelling" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c43443ec-8b14-4237-a7e3-5e8609378858" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-07-31%20at%2011.48.09%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=820tT7ActWtlQU34Jy7WZAgGs20h8oGu" />

“These building approval numbers are an alarm bell that this housing crisis could rapidly escalate into a political crisis if further action isn’t taken,” said Stuart Ayres, CEO,&nbsp;UDIA&nbsp;NSW.

“Every month of underwhelming data requires another future month of increased approvals for us to have any hope of recovery. We do not want to see these housing targets drift into the realm of impossibility."

The Property Council of Australia said the decline in approvals is another clear sign of the challenges ahead to the national housing targets.&nbsp;

<a data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee9bdceb-a292-4e98-89b8-fefb5aa36ada" href="/developments/sydney-nsw"><img alt="Search New Property Across Sydney" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-08-02%20at%202.37.15%20pm.png?VersionId=2647mseF7WdBlu_6UdgG_43IFQI8Ypg1" /></a>

Property Council Group Executive Policy and Advocacy Matthew Kandelaars said the figures continue to paint a challenging picture for reaching our 1.2 million new homes by 2029 target.&nbsp;

“That our dwelling approval numbers have hit the lowest number on a financial year basis in &nbsp;over a decade is a clear sign of the challenges we face in delivering the homes Australians need,” Kandelaars said.&nbsp;

“If we don't accelerate our efforts, we will fall far short of what should be an attainable target.&nbsp;Governments nationwide must use every available measure to help industry deliver the desperately needed supply of new homes.&nbsp;

“We need an invigorated focus on supply-inducing last-mile infrastructure, more construction labour and we need to ensure that first-home buyers are given a better chance of accessing credit for housing.&nbsp;

“To achieve our goal of 1.2 million homes, we need to adopt a proactive mindset and pull every lever available to unlock more supply – including new homes for students, renters and retirees."

“These building approval numbers are an alarm bell that this housing crisis could rapidly escalate into a political crisis if further action isn’t taken,” said Stuart Ayres, CEO, UDIA NSW

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