The RBA statement accompanying the February 2024 announcement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

<h3>Inflation continues to moderate but remains high.</h3>

Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter. Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4.1&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent. Goods price inflation was lower than the RBA’s November forecasts. It has continued to ease, reflecting the resolution of earlier global supply chain disruptions and a moderation in domestic demand for goods. Services price inflation, however, declined at a more gradual pace in line with the RBA’s earlier forecasts and remains high. This is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy. Accordingly, conditions in the labour market continue to ease gradually, although they remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target. Wages growth has picked up but is not expected to increase much further and remains consistent with the inflation target, on the assumption that productivity growth increases to around its long-run average. Inflation is still weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment.

<h3>The outlook is still highly uncertain.</h3>

While there are encouraging signs, the economic outlook is uncertain and the Board remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of&nbsp;2–3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026. Services price inflation is expected to decline gradually as demand moderates and growth in labour and non-labour costs eases. Employment is expected to continue to grow moderately and the unemployment rate and the broader underutilisation rate are expected to increase a bit further.

While there have been favourable signs on goods price inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time of excess demand, and while the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain.

<h3>Returning inflation to target is the priority.</h3>

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range. The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, and a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out. The Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.

Staff Writer

RBA keeps cash rate on hold as inflation continues downward trend

The problematic shortage in the apartment development pipeline in Melbourne, paired with huge immigration forecasts over the next decade, has had property advisory giant Charter Keck Cramer predict huge growth for the <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne off the plan apartment market</a>.

Charter Keck Cramer said this week that, despite the current difficulties in the marketplace which have stemmed from the aggressive interest rate rises over the last 18 months, there are a number of reasons why apartment values will go up.

"There are a number of fundamental reasons that support the thesis that off the plan apartment value rates across the entire apartment market in <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a> will simply have to recalibrate upwards over the next 12 months," Charter Keck Cramer's research report authored by their Research and Strategy team Richard Temlett, Ben Carter, and Charlotte Tolfree read.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112174 project_image_fid=199599]

Their analysis of apartment projects across 10 <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne suburbs</a> shows that&nbsp;several of those that have been released over 2023 have increased their off the plan value rates by +15 per cent to +25 per cent. That's in comparison to pre-COVID off the plan value rates of apartments of the same size in earlier stages of the same development or in comparable projects in the same locations.

They added a caveat however, suggesting that not every project in every location would be able to revise rates upwards.

"At present, the ability to increase value rates comes down to the developer, brand, location and respective target markets."

They believe the buyer market will have to accept the new pricing structure, given it is unlikely that land values will fall substantially, nor will building costs fall dramatically.

<h2>Interest rates and consumer sentiment</h2>

Charter Keck Cramer said the 400 basis point rise since April 2022, which has both dampened purchaser sentiment and cut purchasing power by around 40 per cent, has seen buyer cohorts move into a different property bracket.

"When rates were at 0.1%, all potential buyers had much higher purchasing capacities. A segment of this cohort had the capacity to purchase a detached house or a townhouse whilst another segment that had the capacity to purchase an apartment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5495 project_image_fid=210547]

"With rapid rate rises, there is anticipated to be a “shuffle” downwards (trade-off) where many buyers are forced to trade into medium and higher density dwellings as dictated by their revised finances.

"For those that do not wish to buy, or now cannot afford to buy, will still need a place to live. This in itself provides renter demand which will be attractive to BTS apartment investors (as well as Build to Rent operators)."

There also the renting buyer who is expected to speed up their purchase timelines given the rise in rents over the last 12 months. They expect almost all of these potential buyers will seek the most affordable product type, which will be apartments.

<h2>Supply Imbalance</h2>

While Charter Keck Cramer prepares it's&nbsp;State of the Apartment Market report for H1-2023, the key take away is that&nbsp;supply remains at incredibly low levels.

"When this is read in light of population growth being at decade highs, it is no surprise that vacancy rates are incredibly low and rents are rising so quickly.

<img alt="Melbourne supply" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3cc52365-efac-40d9-bb07-00d9938cb47e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202023-07-21%20at%2010.58.55%20am.png?VersionId=r6aa0O4FUpEfD_wEqQl078dOfISsfsHN" />

"It is also an explanation for why Charter Keck Cramer feels that there will be a floor under price falls (if any) of established apartments, and also a fourth reason why we believe new apartment pricing will need to adjust upwards and will be supported by the buyer market."

<h2>Construction costs and land values</h2>

The advisory firm said that while construction costs are starting to slow, their feedback from builders in the industry is that it is unlikely they will ever revert to pre-COVID levels. They also say that there is going to&nbsp;continue to be substantial competition and demand for labour given the city-shaping infrastructure projects being completed across <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a> over the next few years.

"This stands to keep construction costs elevated in the short, medium and longer term."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27554 project_image_fid=214531]

There's also the expectation that land prices are unlikely to fall substantially, if at all, given the extremely restrictive planning system across <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a>.

"Our investigations with many sales agents suggest that well located quality sites are highly sought after and are increasing in value given many developers are aware of the substantial supply / demand mismatch occurring across Melbourne.

<h2>2023 Apartment Value Rates</h2>

Charter Keck&nbsp;Cramer collaborated with their valuer colleagues and sampled several BTS apartment projects of varying scale across 10 suburbs in <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a> of similar scale that have been launched for sale to market in H1-2023. That's allowed them to&nbsp;understand the relative change in off the plan value rates in projects as at 2018 and 2019 (pre-COVID) compared to 2023.

They used the two-bedroom, two-bathroom product as it was the most popular and allowed the most meaningful comparison to be made.

They found that off the plan value rates have increased by +15% to +25% in several projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=169551]

"We remind the industry that quite simply, people need a place to live. Given the shortage of supply and substantial demand for housing there is going to continue to be a large mismatch between supply and demand for housing across Melbourne over the next 2-4 years.

"At present, it is apparent to Charter Keck Cramer that the ability to increase off the plan value rates (and by how much) comes down to the developer, brand, location and target market.&nbsp;Some projects have increased value rates by only +2% to +5% whilst others have increased them by amounts greater than +25%."

Charter Keck Cramer's view is that&nbsp;in <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a>, the pre-COVID off the plan value rate of $10,000 per sqm is now closer to $12,000 per sqm, whilst the pre-COVID off the plan value rate of $12,000 per sqm sqm is now closer to $14,000 per sqm.

"This requires a change in mindset that needs to be led by the development and financer industry after which it is anticipated that the buyer market will follow given they have limited other alternatives in the current market."

<h2>The Outlook</h2>

Charter Keck Cramer believe the buy to sell apartment market in Melbourne is in the process of being pulled forward.

"Charter Keck Cramer has spoken about the structural changes in living preferences that are occurring across <a href="/developments/melbourne-vic">Melbourne</a>. These structural changes include the take up of apartment living, and also renting and renting for longer.

"It is Charter Keck Cramer’s view that the flow on effect of the pandemic described above has meant that the maturity of the BTS apartment market in Melbourne is in the process of being pulled forward (or “jumping”) by a property market cycle (i.e. 7-10 years). This will continue to play out over the next 12 months."

They say part of the&nbsp;pull forward in market maturity (evolution) will be that larger numbers of occupiers embrace living in apartments as well as the buyer market accepting higher prices for BTS apartments as this product type continues to become more mainstream. &nbsp;

"The other critical part of this expedited apartment market maturity however is that developers will need to respond by delivering owner-occupier quality apartments. Some examples of these features include apartments with extra storage, lots of communal amenity, larger living areas, larger functional balconies and more 3 Bedroom apartments." 
 
Charter Keck Cramer also believes that the RBA is close to the top of the rate tightening cycle.

"When rates stabilise, it is anticipated that market demand will start to be expressed and sales rates will accelerate. When rates start to be cut, there is anticipated to be an extremely elastic response across the entire housing market with the BTS apartment market well poised to be a primary beneficiary for many of the reasons highlighted above.&nbsp; "

Charter Keck Cramer said this week that, despite the current difficulties in the marketplace which have stemmed from the aggressive interest rate rises over the last 18 months, there are a number of reasons why apartment values will go up.



Joel Robinson

Melbourne off the plan apartment values could spike 25 per cent: Charter Keck Cramer

From July 1 first home buyers in New South Wales won't be subject to stamp duty on any property under $800,000.

The NSW Government has raised the stamp duty concession cap from $650,000, with the intention to assist first home buyers getting into the market.

Concessions will also be applicable to properties worth up to $1 million, up from the previous limit of $800,000.

The NSW government estimates that around 84 per cent of first home buyers will benefit from the reforms, paying either a reduced rate or no stamp duty at all.

It's estimated that a first home buyer purchasing an $800,000 property will save up to $31,090 under the new rules.

The NSW government's legislation will also introduce tighter scrutiny by including an eligibility requirement mandating that purchasers must reside in the purchased property for a minimum of one year.

The new concessions will come into place following the expiry of the&nbsp;First Home Buyer Choice scheme, which was brought in by the Coalition state government. That allowed first home buyers to buy a property up to the value of $1.5 million and choose to pay an annual property tax rather than stamp duty.

At the time the Labor Party described it as a "forever tax on your home" and had promised to abolish it.

Comparatively, Queensland's no stamp duty threshold is $500,000, and Melbourne's is $600,000.

The NSW government estimates that around 84 per cent of first home buyers will benefit from the reforms, paying either a reduced rate or no stamp duty at all

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