<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the past few weeks three of the four major banks in Australia have announced that they are going to be increasing variable mortgage rates. </p>
<p>While there has been a lot of adjustments to mortgage rates over recent years, the big difference with the latest announcement is that the higher mortgage rates are going to affect owner occupiers. </p>
<p>Most of the previous mortgage rate changes announced by the major banks have only affected investors and those with interest only mortgages.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/7/KUSH1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/7/KUSH1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Many of the smaller regional banks have pushed mortgage rates for owner occupiers higher over recent months citing higher short-term funding costs. </p>
<p>Although until now the major banks had resisted making an adjustment to mortgage rates it seems they too have had their hand forced by higher funding costs.  The above chart highlights the cost of short-term funding to banks (the three-month bank bill swap rate) and it clearly shows that the cost of short-term funding has increased.  It currently sits at 2.26% compared to the official cash rate which remains unchanged at 1.5% since August 2016.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/7/KUSH2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/7/KUSH2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Short-term funding costs have certainly risen recently however, it is also interesting to look at the composition of funding to Australia’s banks. Short-term funding is not an insignificant part of the funding profile (slightly more than 20%), although the share of funding from short-term debt has fallen over recent years as domestic deposits have increased. </p>
<p>There are other ways to handle higher short-term funding costs rather than lifting mortgage rates but that would likely mean cutting dividends which lenders seem reluctant to want to do or reducing deposit interest rates which would likely see a further reduction in the primary funding source: domestic deposits.</p>
<p>From a housing market perspective the timing of the announcement of higher interest rates is an interesting one. </p>
<p>After many years of strong value growth, Sydney and Melbourne housing is now well embedded in a downturn.  Tighter credit conditions, higher mortgage rates for investors and interest-only borrowers and reduced affordability have already led to the falls of -5.6% from the peak in Sydney and -3.5% from their peak in Melbourne.  This has occurred so far without higher interest rates for owner occupiers paying off principal and interest however, that is about to change.</p>
<p>The timing of the hikes to mortgage rates is also interesting in that it has been announced right at the beginning of the Spring Selling Season.  Although spring, in my mind and according to the data, is somewhat overhyped as a good time to sell, more stock does typically become available for sale over the period and buying activity typically increases. </p>
<p>The other usual occurrence at the beginning of spring is that lenders offer enticing mortgage rates to the market to jostle for market share.  By contrast this year, major lenders are announcing higher mortgage rates.</p>
<p>Higher mortgage rates have already driven a slowing of demand for investors over the past year.  Although the magnitude of the mortgage rate increases announced is fairly small (around 15 basis points by each lender) it is likely that the higher mortgage rates will impact on housing market sentiment. Furthermore it may end up further exacerbating the declines which are already occurring in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin and the slowing of value growth being experienced elsewhere. </p>
<p>Overall this move seems likely to lead to a continuation of the currently weak housing market conditions over the coming months and may weaken the market further.  From the lenders perspective, clearly they realise that the housing downturn is becoming entrenched (particularly in Perth and Darwin, but more recently in Sydney and Melbourne) and they are doing what they can to maintain profitability in the face of lower mortgage volumes.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is a property research analyst for CoreLogic</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Higher mortgage rates likely to prolong the housing market weakness: CoreLogic

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over the weekend I spoke to crowds of people with their heads crammed full of media misinformation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The number one point of discussion was the general perception that prices are falling across Australia, thanks to simplistic analysis and inaccurate headlines.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In reality, the latest monthly price report from CoreLogic (the source of most articles and headlines on prices) tells us that there are 14 major market jurisdictions across Australia (eight capital cities and six state regional areas) – and nine of the 14 have price levels higher than last year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I see plenty of potential for buyers to find locations where prices are rising or are on the cusp of a growth phase.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">How do you find them? Here are four markers that provides clues to future price growth …</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>1 The underlying local economy is rising</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In 2011 when the government changed in New South Wales, the state ranked as one of the weakest economies in the nation, according to CommSec’s <em>State of the States</em> report.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But with proactive governance and increased spending on infrastructure, NSW rose steadily up the rankings to eventually become the nation’s strongest economy. Out of that came the Sydney property boom.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There was a similar story in Tasmania. Traditionally Tasmania has ranked as our weakest economy but, following a major change of state government in 2014, the state rose up the national rankings, eventually reaching its current position of No.4, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The marked improvement in the state economy gave rise to the growth in the Hobart property market, now the strongest among the capital cities for price growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The linkages between capital city property markets and the underlying state economy are undeniably strong.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So where does this marker point us for the next growth markets among the capital cities?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are definite signs of improvement in the economies of Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This, along with other indicators, suggests better growth in the property markets in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>2 Demand has risen but prices haven’t moved much - yet</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Three capital cities stand out for this reason: Perth, Canberra and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There has been significant uplift in sales activity in Perth, as the underlying state economy improves.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Canberra sales activity is rising steadily also, and Adelaide currently has one of the most active markets among the capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When demand rises, prices tend to follow. One major forecaster has tipped Canberra to lead on price growth in the next 2-3 years. I think the national capital will definitely be a contender, but so will Perth and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>3 Rents have risen strongly, but prices haven’t moved much - yet</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Before Sydney prices started to rise, we saw a couple of years of strong growth in residential rentals. Before house prices started to move in Hobart, it was noticeable that vacancies were extremely low and that rents were rising. Prices followed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So where are those conditions most evident right now in capital city Australia? The clear answer is Canberra, where vacancies are below 1% and residential rents have risen strongly in the past year or so, according to SQM Research data.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’re also observing significant improvement in the Perth rental market, with vacancies declining and leasing activity rising.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>4 Prices overall haven’t moved much, but the Top End has had strong growth</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sydney’s growth cycle started at the Top End and rippled out over time. In Melbourne, the up-cycle began in the millionaire suburbs and gravitated from there to the middle ring and more recently to the outer ring suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is a common pattern in property cycles. And right now there are three capital cities where the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit price growth in the past year, but the market overall has not had big price growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Those three cities are Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>Where do all these markers point us?</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Put all those indicators together and they point to strong price growth in the near future in three capital cities:</span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Canberra: the underlying economy ranks third in the nation, it has the highest average incomes and lowest unemployment, vacancies are low and the rental growth is the highest in the nation, sales activity (demand) is increasing and the Top End prices have risen strongly.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Adelaide: the state economy is improving and has big growth drivers in the system, vacancies are below average, demand is rising, yields are strong and Top End prices have risen at above-average rates.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Perth: the state economy is recovering, vacancies are falling, rental activity is rising, sales activity is steadily improving and Top End prices have recorded double-digit annual growth in many of the millionaire suburbs.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Brisbane will get on board if the signals of an improving state economy and the promise of big spending on infrastructure actually come to pass.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Four key markers for property investors of future price growth

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<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
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</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<div id="post-body-5825783051489187345" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The most timely JLL report showed that the residential construction pipeline is now shrinking fast on tighter lending criteria for developers and investors.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In time this will inevitably lead to tighter rental vacancies, especially as we head into and beyond the traditionally busy Christmas and New Year period, with more Airbnb offerings also set to eat into the rental market through this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the greatest volume of apartment construction through this cycle Sydney and Melbourne will be the last markets to know about the tightening (although when D-Day does come the presently record high population growth in these cities means that the tightening of rentals market may also be felt most acutely).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're already hearing more and more stories of failed or delayed settlements, so the slowing in supply could come about sooner than expected. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The initial impacts will be felt in Hobart, Canberra, Adelaide, and an array of rental markets around regional Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, SQM's latest figures showed that rental vacancies had already fallen to the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/lowest-vacancies-since-early-2014" target="_blank">lowest level since 2014</a> by the end of last month, so the process is well underway.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The HIA forecast today in its National Outlook that housing starts will fall by more than 50,000 from the peak, noting (or lamenting) that:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'APRA’s restrictions were designed to curb high risk lending practices but we are now seeing ordinary home buyers experience delays and constraints in accessing finance.'</div>
<div> </div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Note that all of this is before Labor's proposed changes to negative gearing come about, which were originally designed to slow investor activity in the raging hot markets of 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Arrivals hit record high</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its arrivals and departures figures for the month of September 2018 this morning, which showed permanent and long-term arrivals rising to 823,090 over the year to September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents an increase of 6 per cent from a year earlier, and is the highest figure on record for Australia (the equivalent figure around the time of the Sydney Olympics was about 300,000, which is a measure of just how popular migration to Australia has become).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Short-term arrivals into Australia have also boomed in recent years, rising to a record high of 9.2 million in September. </div>
<div>
<br>Interestingly the growth is no longer being driven by Chinese tourists, with a range of other countries picking up the mantle, including India.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
<br>Education arrivals were also up by 5 per cent from a year earlier to a record high of 596,400.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s1600/Education.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s640/Education.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1357"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Finally, at the state level short-term arrivals were up by 4 per cent in New South Wales to 3.45 million for the year to September, but growth was stronger in Victoria (up 8 per cent to 2.3 million) and Queensland (up 8 per cent to 2 million).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1418"></a><br><br>Queensland was a little flattered here by the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/04/gc2018hockey" target="_blank">Commonwealth Games XXI</a>, held at Gold Coast earlier this year...although that all seems like a long time ago now!<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Both short- and long-term arrivals hit record highs for the year to September 2018, with accordingly significant implications for housing market demand over the year(s) ahead.<br><br>Australia's visa programme is tilted towards those aged under 30, so there are dramatic implications for rental market demand here as construction slows, as well as pent up demand for entrants to home ownership over the years ahead. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Rental vacancies to tighten: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia abounds with locations where buyer activity is rising and there is strong potential for prices to rise, notwithstanding the general impression created by national media.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The latest edition of the Price Predictor Index by Hotspotting has identified good quantities of growth markets within our smaller capital cities and, in particular, within the many solid regional markets that exist, especially on the eastern side of the nation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The very solid Adelaide market has large numbers of locations with rising demand, as does the recovering Perth market and the always-steady Canberra market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional New South Wales, as I noted in an earlier column, has strong growth markets right across the state. In some, prices have already risen strongly in the past 6-12 months, while others have the potential for growth based on the current demand trends.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Victoria has delivered the strongest price growth anywhere in Australia in the past year, in terms of locations where median prices have increased more than 20 percent. Other markets are now emerging, based on the sales trends, with the potential to deliver big growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Tasmania has numerous growth markets, led by Launceston, and collectively has provided some of the nation’s strongest price growth recently, based on CoreLogic figures.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Queensland is also sparking to life, led by double-digit growth in many of the suburbs of the Sunshine Coast and by recovering Central Queensland markets such as Mackay.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I regard The Price Predictor Index as an important report because it scrutinizes one of the key parts of the property price equation – demand - by charting the number of sales occurring in every suburb and town in Australia.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The surveys are conducted every three months to identify patterns of demand – whether demand is rising in key markets, or whether demand is falling – or, as is the case in many locations, whether there’s a pattern of consistent and steady demand, quarter by quarter, over time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The basic premise of this methodology is that prices respond to demand patterns – if demand is rising over time, prices will rise (all other things being equal).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If demand is falling, price growth will slow down, and may eventually stop, and – in some instances – prices will fall.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The key factor here is that there’s a time lag. Prices don’t react instantaneously to changes in demand. It takes time for the changing demand patterns, whether up or down, to work through into property markets and create reactions in prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Demand in the Sydney was steadily falling away in 2016 but it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw the first clear signs of a slow-down in price growth, looking across all the data from multiple research sources.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And then in 2018, as the slow-down in demand continued, we saw prices falling in some parts of the Sydney market, although in most cases the decreases have been quite moderate.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Right now, prices are rising strongly in other Australian markets, including in Hobart; in the million-dollar suburbs of Canberra, Adelaide and Perth; and in numerous locations in regional Australia. In each case, these price rises were preceded by increases in sales volumes – in other words, increases in demand.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Demand in smaller capitals and solid regional markets will lead to property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Nationally dwelling values as at October 2018 have fallen by - 3.5% from their peak with much larger falls in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.</span></p>
<p><span>The reality is that there has been very little improvement in housing affordability; Sydney and Melbourne in particular are a little cheaper, but remain substantially more expensive than other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><span>Although house values in Sydney are now -9.3% lower than their peak, the cost of a house in Sydney is still substantially higher than elsewhere at $960,344. In fact, a house in Sydney is now more than double the median value of an Adelaide and Hobart house.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%201.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Looking </span><span>at house values over time is interesting.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Sydney has consistently </span><span>been the most expensive capital city housing market however, although at one point, Perth was slightly more expensive (after Perth values surged more than 40% annually at one point in 2006 on the back the resources boom). Relative to other capital cities the Sydney premium is recorded at: 23% for Melbourne, 76% for Brisbane, 105% for Adelaide, 100% for Perth, 101% for Hobart, 88% for Darwin and 44% for Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge;</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Despite recent value falls in Sydney</span><span>, the value gap has not been at such wide levels as it is currently for most cities since late 2003/early 2004. The one exception is the value differential for Melbourne, which over recent years has been substantially narrower than previously.</span></p>
<p><span>Similarly, the Melbourne value gap </span><span>compared to other capital cities (except Sydney) is the widest it has ever been. Historically, the value of houses in Melbourne have been quite similar to those in Brisbane and Perth however, this is no longer the case.</span></p>
<p><span>For units, the story is a similar one</span><span>. </span><span>Sydney’s </span><span>median unit value at ($740,394) remains more expensive than median house values in all other capital cities except for Sydney and Melbourne. Similarly, the median Melbourne unit value ($555,517) remains higher than median house values in all other capital cities except Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Over time, unit values have saw a consistent trend whereby Sydney has been more expensive than the other capital cities. </span></p>
<p><span>The current premium for Sydney compared to other capital cities sits at: 32% for Melbourne, 90% for Brisbane, 123% for Adelaide, 94% for Perth, 95% for Hobart, 134% for Darwin and 67% for Canberra. </span></p>
<p><span>As was the case for houses, the differential has not been as large as it is currently between Sydney and these other capital cities since 2003/2004. Melbourne was exception where the differential has been reducing over recent years.</span></p>
<p><span>With house and unit values falling in Sydney and Melbourne, Mr Kusher expects the premiums to reduce further over the coming months and year(s).</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%204.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>While </span><span>this may be the case, any significant reduction in housing costs back to historic premiums would take a long period of declines or flat housing market conditions. Furthermore, it seems unlikely, given the economic strength and populations of Sydney and Melbourne that the value premium of housing in these two cities will revert to historical levels.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is a property research analyst for CoreLogic</em></span></p>
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Very little improvement in housing affordability despite dwelling decline

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a happy new year, and all that, but not so much for bankers, with lending growth continuing to flounder. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's latest figures showed credit growth slowing to 4.4 per cent, down from 5.2 per cent a year earlier, and broad money growth at fresh quarter-century lows of just 1.86 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1I8fNGCXk6k/XCqUFoyKJPI/AAAAAAAAtsc/xXakammeXQAlHhvGQp9I_UB9FnMLp02cwCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1383"></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>It was noteworthy to hear last week that the RBA has been watching the gross household debt-to-income ratio as a main point of concern, especially as <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/12/debt-ratio-revised-lower-now-falling" target="_blank">this ratio has already peaked and is now falling</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The distinction from <em>housing</em> debt-to-income was quite interesting (to me at least) as the lines between housing, small business, and personal credit are blurred at best, with small business loans often secured against a home, and so on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the chart below, changes in the direction of housing credit growth have tended to lead changes in dwelling price growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can also see that no such change had occurred by the end of November 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Dqi23bcB6-Q/XCqUHZwLEgI/AAAAAAAAtsg/RKoxndSCpVUL5OIvz-ZGLEb4G8XspSL5gCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A simple credit impulse model as favoured by ANZ economists suggests that capital city (i.e. Sydney and Melbourne) dwelling price declines should moderate, although there are several factors unique to this cycle - not least the boom and bust in Chinese investors - that could throw the model a bit off course (this may have already happened to some extent since 2014). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hg19s7pQfzU/XCqUE6b5LmI/AAAAAAAAtsY/pvq8s6-v7MEhCHqgIJamHA7GeoF0vQUcQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1341"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Investor credit growth was already at the lowest level on record, and it fell to even lower levels last month, allowing APRA to remove another of its now-redundant arbitrary caps, this time on interest-only lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the enormous growth in the population aged 25 to 34 in particular, this is now a remarkably low level of growth in investor credit, even if it did follow on from a boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LmCPOkyIAMs/XCqUDn5r1zI/AAAAAAAAtsU/43fTNK6yncENxThK3etijkbED9oHjaPAgCLcBGAs/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1402"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Not surprisingly the growth in owner-occupier credit also declined for a ninth consecutive month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will release its latest home value index for the month of December, and this will show significant declines for Sydney and Melbourne in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>In short, business credit was moderate, personal credit was negative, and housing credit has no pulse - let's hope that doesn't turn into a full-blown coronary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Happy New Year! </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.</em></div>
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2018 finishes with housing credit having no pulse: Pete Wargent

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<p>National residential listings declined 9.2% in December 2018 to 328,203 from 361,619 in November 2018, according to SQM Research.</p>
<p>It noted that the stock reduction in all cities was expected during the festive and summer break, however, the decline in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra were larger than expected.</p>
<p>Residential listings were down on November in Sydney 17.7%, Melbourne 17.2% and Canberra 15.5%.</p>
<p>Hobart recorded the smallest monthly decline at 5.8%.</p>
<p>But compared to a year earlier, national listings were up 2.8%, with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra’s year-on-year listings up the most - Melbourne up 25.4%, Canberra 19.3% and Sydney up 16.5%.</p>
<p>Hobart on the other hand experienced a yearly decline of 5.8%, with residential property listings dropping from 2,426 in December 2017 to 2,286 in December 2018.</p>
<p>Adelaide and Darwin also experienced yearly declines of sale listings at 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/SQM%20Table%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>(Source: SQM Research)</p>
<p>Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, said listings in December had some large falls however, let us keep in mind there was a surge in listings recorded in November and that December traditionally records a large fall in properties for sale as this is a holiday period.</p>
<p>“Our view remains in place that prices will likely fall in Sydney and Melbourne over the course of 2019.</p>
<p>"We note however that Melbourne house asking prices increased during the month by 0.3% as did unit asking prices in Sydney 0.7%.</p>
<p>"I also note that national listings are now only up 2.8% for the year, indicating that regional centres may well have outperformed the major capital cities in 2018.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a></p>
<p>Asking prices were a different story as capital city asking prices rose 0.4% for units to $571,600 but declined 0.9% for houses to $924,500, for the month to 31 December 2018.</p>
<p>The largest monthly rise came from Canberra, where house asking prices rose 2.5%. However, Unit asking prices in Canberra declined by 1.1%.</p>
<p>Sydney recorded the highest increase in Unit asking prices of 0.7% but the largest decline in House asking prices of 1.6% over the month.</p>
<p>Year-on-year asking price gains were the strongest in Canberra for both houses and units, with house prices rising by 3.4% and Units by 7.9%.</p>
<p>Year-on-year prices fell in Sydney, Darwin and Perth for both houses and units.</p>
<p>Brisbane and Hobart recorded increases in house asking prices but unit prices declined year-on-year.</p>
<p>This was reversed in Adelaide and Melbourne which recorded decreases in house prices but increases in unit asking prices over the year.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/SQM%20Table%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

December 2018 national residential listings sat higher than December 2017: SQM Research

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/01/hows-act-land-tax-going"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canberra rents surge</span></strong> </h3>
<div id="post-body-7598088234210480051" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><span>I've been consistent on this point (often wrong, but never in doubt!): taxes in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are far too high for landlords to invest there <em>en masse, </em>which will lead to a rental shortage as the population steadily grows. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There are a lot of 'well, in theory...' type comments made about this point, however, including by me, so let's stick to the hard data for today.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Rental vacancy rates fell from 2½ per cent in 2014 when rate rises were first introduced to 0.6 per cent in October 2018. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Rental markets are seasonal in the ACT and often tighten through the early months of the calendar year, and in turn Canberra could take out Hobart in Tasmania for title of most undersupplied capital city rental market in 2019, which is is some feat (click to expand): </span></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vT1xNQ-Dd80/XDbv-FMFELI/AAAAAAAAt3c/cYKMVTIhmYgYm33-es2Bb-k5EyZiZE-ygCEwYBhgL/s1600/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vT1xNQ-Dd80/XDbv-FMFELI/AAAAAAAAt3c/cYKMVTIhmYgYm33-es2Bb-k5EyZiZE-ygCEwYBhgL/s640/SQM2.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1453"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Asking rents for houses in Canberra are now up by more than 26 per cent over the past three years alone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A major issue is that rates are often far too high on units as well, despite the relatively low land value content of this property type. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The asking rent for 2-bedroom units in Canberra is also up by more than 23 per cent over the same time period!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Canberra! </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qPJMlBBFvq8/XDbv93SNgdI/AAAAAAAAt3g/ybb9rzPeXyQohtoeTKB8Ta16YaZc7WzGACLcBGAs/s1600/sqm1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qPJMlBBFvq8/XDbv93SNgdI/AAAAAAAAt3g/ybb9rzPeXyQohtoeTKB8Ta16YaZc7WzGACLcBGAs/s640/sqm1.jpg" width="640" height="188" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="777"></a></div>
<br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>If you don't like asking rents - and you may not - then Domain's actual rental report figures this week were similar.</span><br><span><br></span><span>Domain reported that Canberra is now a more expensive city in which to rent a home than even Sydney, with rents spiralling as high as the Black Mountain Tower. </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Dr. Nicola Powell:</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><strong><em>"With investors slugged with higher rates and land taxes, it is likely landlords are passing on the additional costs to tenants, or opting for high yielding short-term leases in order to recover costs."</em></strong></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the plus side there have been some significant apartment projects approved for construction, but one questions which landlords are going to buy them and rent them out. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Politicians seeking tax deductions, perhaps.<br><br>Foreign investors won't supply the rentals any longer, having already been taxed out of the market.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SLAOdeLo-_w/XDb2yteH7-I/AAAAAAAAt38/-gvstrSWvQgPXqqff-6uw_xnFupyVf8EwCLcBGAs/s1600/China.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SLAOdeLo-_w/XDb2yteH7-I/AAAAAAAAt38/-gvstrSWvQgPXqqff-6uw_xnFupyVf8EwCLcBGAs/s640/China.jpg" width="640" height="128" data-original-height="146" data-original-width="729"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Some people are even campaigning for high land taxes, <em>and</em> the ALP negative gearing reforms, <em>and</em> a doubling of capital gains tax (all of this on top of the changes made to foreign investment, interest-only lending, restrictions on Division 40 depreciation, disallowance of travel expenses etc etc.). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's nothing much to say but best of luck with that!</div>
<div>
<br>It's a small city, which grows in population by less than 10,000 per annum. Way to go!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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How's the ACT land tax going? And what it means for property investor supply: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sometimes economic upheaval can be the best thing that happens to a property market. Places afflicted by business closures and industry shutdowns often go into fightback mode and the end result is a net positive.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Newcastle since the closure of BHP in the late 1990s is a great example. So is Wollongong, a city where doom was forecast when Bluescope Steel was downsizing but which these days has a thriving local economy and growth property market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And Geelong, which has had a number of blue-collar industries close but which has evolved into one of regional Australia’s strongest economies, with a property market which had led Victoria on price growth in the past two years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Adelaide, the former Mitsubishi car plant property has been re-purposed as a high-tech innovation precinct, a sector in which the SA capital leads the nation. More recently, the Holden manufacturing facility closed down but that too is being reinvented with modern creative industries.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sometimes, this kind of supposed adversity can be the best thing that can happen in a local economy and its real estate market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So now, to the surprise of many, we have resurgence in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, where the closure of coal-related industries was thought be the death knell for local towns. But, yet again, the opposite is true and now towns like Traralgon and Moe are shaping as the next to join Victoria’s regional property boom.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Yes, there’s a property boom sweeping through regional Victoria. Contrary to the theme of mainstream media, which has created the false impression of decline everywhere, there are thriving and rising markets across the nation – and regional Victoria is at the forefront of them.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Victoria’s Latrobe Valley is a market that many investors would avoid because many of its towns are down-market and the region has attracted mostly negative publicity suggesting economic decline.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">But the reality is quite different from the media-driven perceptions. The Latrobe Valley is performing strongly and the real estate market is rising. It’s becoming the latest of the fightback markets of Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Buyer demand has been slowly rippling eastward from Melbourne in the last few years. Sales activity in Cardinia Shire (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin) has risen strongly, with big price growth. Now, it’s Latrobe City’s turn.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">The Latrobe Valley economy was impacted by the closure of coal-fired power stations but various levels of government have been directing resources to the region to boost the economy and maintain jobs. Numerous small projects to support small business and manufacturing are under way, schools and sporting complexes are being upgraded, a GovHub is being established and unemployment has fallen.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">On a larger scale, the Defence Force is relocating its pilot training academy to nearby Sale, the local hospital is being redeveloped in a $217 million project, the Gippsland rail line is being duplicated in several sections and there are plans to establish an electronic car-making factory in the region.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">This is drawing the focus from the traditional mining sector and steering Latrobe Valley in a new direction.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Latrobe City is recognised as one of Victoria’s four major regional centres along with Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. It is made up of four central towns – Churchill, Moe/Newborough, Morwell and Traralgon.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">The City is the residential and commercial hub of a larger catchment of 262,000 people stretching across the Latrobe Valley and Gippsland region. Latrobe Valley is one of the most liveable regions in Victoria, known for its high-quality health, education and community services.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">More commonly known for its energy production, the Latrobe region is also a heartland for agriculture, pastoral, papermaking and timber, supplemented by manufacturing and engineering.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Latrobe Valley is serviced by Victoria’s regional train network with V/Line train stations at Trafalgar, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Regional Victoria is now the strongest market in Australian real estate. As the Melbourne boom subsides, regional markets are rising strongly.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Latrobe is a prime example: demand is rising in all four main towns. These markets are very affordable – Churchill, Moe and Morwell all have medians below $200,000. Traralgon, the biggest market with 620 annual sales, has a median house price of $290,000.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Strong yields and low vacancies, both being hallmarks of a promising property market, are evident across Latrobe City. SQM Research data shows rents have generally risen in the last 12 months. The median rent in Morwell is $240, 8% higher than a year ago and 18% up on the rate of three years ago. Investors can expect rental returns around 6.8% in Churchill and Morwell, and 6.4% in Moe.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">The region can now offer a combination of low prices, low vacancies and high rental returns.</span> </p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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