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The former Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson, in his first interview since leaving his job in December, says there isn't and never was a fiscal crisis.
He described the damagingly simple focus on budget surpluses and deficits as a fixation.
"Australia has fantastic opportunities in front of it, the shift of economic weight towards our region, the technological changes, if we grasp them," he told the Australian Financial Review's Laura Tingle.
"How do we go about grasping it? Well first of all, we've got to get our house in order. That means we've got to get our fiscal situation sorted out.
"It's not a crisis, it's never been a crisis. The last thing you'd want to do is start racing back to surplus in the next couple of years: the economy is growing below trend and will continue to do so."
He warned as long as Australia fails to get its budgetary house in order, it remains vulnerable to another shock like the global financial crisis.
"We could get hit at any point with another external shock. If we start from where our debt position is, it won't take very long for us to end up with debt levels that are dramatically higher than we've experienced in modern Australia," he said, adding Ireland's debt position "wasn't a lot different from Australia's" before the GFC.
"I don't envisage we will have to do that, but situations can change and change quickly, so that is why you want to err on the side of caution – get the place to a stronger fiscal position. You don't panic and try to do it in the next couple of years, but over a sustained period. At the moment we are looking at a decade of deficits."
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

There is no budget crisis: Martin Parkinson

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Westpac will apply tougher tests to new property investor borrowers in response to Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's (APRA) efforts to prevent the housing market from overheating.
It will test how borrowers would cope if interest rates rose to 7.1% when assessing how they would cope with higher interest rates.
Previously Westpac's test involved assessing how investor borrowers would cope if mortgage interest rates rose to 6.8%, up from about 5%.
"We had been using a buffer in that case of 180 basis points, we've lifted that to 210 basis points," Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer was reported as saying in Fairfax Media.
The policy changes are a response to APRA's warning to banks in December, that they would be forced to run larger capital buffers unless they slow investor credit growth below 10% a year. 
"APRA's been in discussions with the whole industry about this," Hartzer said.
"We're all on the same page here. Nobody wants to fuel a speculative credit boom."
Westpac investor lending is growing at 11.5% annually, it said.
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Higher interest rate testing for Westpac investor borrowers

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AMP Capital's Shane Oliver expects the RBA to act on its easing bias and cut the cash rate to 2% (from 2.25%) at its May meeting today.
"But it’s another very close call," he suggests.
"The case for another cut remains strong: the outlook for business investment remains weak, commodity prices are softer than expected, the Australian dollar remains too high and is at risk of rebounding further and inflation is benign. 
"However, the RBA may continue to fret about housing leverage and Sydney home price gains and the bounce in the iron ore price over the last few weeks has eased the pressure on the RBA a bit. 
"So while our base case is for a cut, another month on hold would not be surprising."
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AMP Capital's Shane Oliver won't be surprised if RBA holds off another cut in May

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The Brighton Golden Mile 1862 property, Bonleigh has been sold, a year after going on the market with an asking price of $6.5 million.
The property on Bonleigh Avenue originally had title to the low-water mark, but now comes with bay views.
The property, once used as a boarding house, was renovated by retired banker John Langton-Bunker and his wife, Peta, who have lived in the 150 year old mansion for the past 23 years.
They paid $815,000 in 1992.
It was designed by Alfred L Smith whose design works include Melbourne's Supreme Courts and Library and the Athenaeum Theatre.
The home is believed to have been built for Lawrence Cockburn, the son of Lord Cockburn, solicitor-general of Scotland.
<a href="https://uniqueestates.com.au/listings/residential_sale-278842-brighton/" target="_blank">Unique Estates</a> have withheld the sale price. 
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Brighton's 1862 trophy mansion Bonleigh sells

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Sydney's cheapest auction offering sold a week before Saturday's scheduled auction at Cabramatta.
It went for $400,000 through Sam Tea at Richardson &amp; Wrench Cabramatta. There were just nine sales at weekend auction at $500,000 or below.
The 39/65 McBurney Road, Cabramatta apartment was a two bedroom with balcony.
It last sold at $260,000 in 2011 and $216,000 in 2004, and at $98,500 in 2001.
The late 1970s block's previous highest sale was $370,000 in late 2014 for a 68 square metre two bedroom. It was then put out for rent at $310 a week, reflecting around 4.3% rental yield.
It sold in 2001 at $103,000.
Sydney's other sub-$500,000 weekend auction sales were:
7/10 Betts Avenue, Blackhurst, one bedroom unit $460,000
8 Leonard Street, Colyton, three bedroom house $471,000
8/21 Mount Street, Constitution Hill two bedroom house $490,000
18/12 Enmore Road, Newtown studio $460,000
16/13-17 The Strand, Rockdale one bedroom unit $435,000
9/16-18 Roslyn Gardens, Rushcutters Bay studio $432,000
24/543-551 Elizabeth Street, Surry Hills studio $455,000
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Cabramatta had Sydney's cheapest auction offering - what you get for $400,000

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Christie's International agent Ken Jacobs says there are mixed message coming from the Australian government on foreign investment in prestige residential 
Jacobs was part of the high level delegation from the Christie's that was visiting China last week to help build stronger relationships across the company’s global network.
There has to be clarity and certainty in the wake of the Villa del Mare, Point Piper decision,<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/126578065" target="_blank"> he </a><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/126578065" target="_blank">suggests</a>.
<div>It was the first time Jacobs has spoken publicly on this issue - he was one of the sellers of the $39 million Point Piper home. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Jacobs said Treasurer Joe Hockey’s forced sale was an unpreced­ented and an ill-considered political stunt.</div>
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“The market here is seeing lots of mixed messages from our government, which is the worst thing that any country can do or any investment category can do,’’ he said.
“People want certainty, they want to be able to look at the crit­eria and meet that criteria, but if the criteria’s sort of a moving feast then there are lots of other markets they can go to.”
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Mixed messages in FIRB regulation will backfire on Australia: Christie's International agent Ken Jacobs

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Channel 7 TV show My Kitchen Rules food editor, Kellie Thomas and her filmmaker husband Pete Mether sold their North Balgowlah home for $1,405,000 under the hammer recently.
<a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/12-abingdon-street-north-balgowlah/Property-Details-sold-residential-8461788" target="_blank">The three-bedroom house</a> had been expected to sell for about $1.3 million according to selling agent Tim Wirth of LJ Hooker Seaforth.
Thomas, who is in her sixth season as food editor of the hit Channel Seven show, paid $751,500 in 2008.
Following her international hospitality degree, she moved to London and set up her catering company, Saffron, cooking and teaching in the UK and Europe. 
Thomas moved to Australia in 2002 to work for the Australian Women’s Weekly, originally as a senior home economist.
From there she moved to New Idea, before editing the MasterChef Cookbook Vol 1, Our Family Table by Julie Goodwin and collaborating with Spanish chef Miguel Maestre on his first cookbook. 
Thomas moved to Channel 7 as the food editor for the second series of My Kitchen Rules.
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Inside the real My Kitchen Rules kitchen  

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A Lilyfield home with authentic 1950's kitchen with breakfast nook has been listed for 9 May auction.
The 1900 Federation home on 215 square metre block has three bedrooms, the main with window seat.
There are high patterned ceilings and cornices.
Its level back garden finishes off the package with lawn and Hills Hoist
All five minute walk to parks, supermarket and the light rail.
</div>
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The <a href="https://www.pilcher-residential.com/4948414/16-Starling-Street-Lilyfield" target="_blank">16 Starling Street offering</a> is being offered through Pilcher Residential with price guidance over $1.05 million. 
"Owned by the same family since 1946, the house is being sold with its vintage furniture included," listing agent Simon Pilcher said.
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On the Saturday, after bidding opened at $1.1 million, an original 1950s home at fetched $1.52 million for a classic 1950s family home in Eastwood.
Marketed as a "quintessential Aussie red-brick house," the three-bedroom home on a 778-square-metre block at <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/property/sold/house/nsw/eastwood/?adid=2011897191">205 North Road</a> had 18 registered bidders.
It last sold at 6400 pounds in the 1960s, reported the SMH's 50s aficionado, Anna Anderson. 
After the buyers - who were accompanied by parents visiting from China - indicated plans to keep and extend, the BresicWhitney agency <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/BresicWhitneyEA/status/595009767317188608" target="_blank">tweeted</a>: New Life: "Red Brick Survivor" passed to the next generation of Aussie families in #Eastwood.<a class="twitter-timeline-link" href="https://t.co/wgSmhR98oi" target="_blank" title="https://ow.ly/MsyTl" rel="nofollow" style="line-height: 1.3em;" data-expanded-url="https://ow.ly/MsyTl"> </a>
The last time interest rates were at current levels was in the 1950s and 1960s. In March 1960 the minimum interest rate applied on loans accepted by authorised dealers on the short term money market was 2.69% with the maximum rate of 3.38% and an implied weighted average rate of 2.70%.
Certainly very low interest rates were common through the 1940s, 1950s and most of the 1960s. For instance in 1952, the 3-month commercial bank deposit rate was just 0.71 per cent and even in 1956 it had lifted to only 1.25%. Housing loan rates held at 5.00% through 1959 and 1960. Trading bank overdraft rates were between 5.00-6.00% in the late 1950s/early 1960s, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Statistical Bulletins.
A key reason why interest rates were low was because wages and prices were under control. In the 1958/59 year, wages rose by 2.5%, retail prices rose by 2.6% and the consumer price index rose by 1.9%, Craig James the chief economist at CommSec once noted. 
</div>
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 Knockout original 1950s kitchen in Lilyfield auction

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The Singapore-based Chinese-backed investment vehicle, Bright Ruby has bought the Sydney Hilton Hotel on George Street for $442 million.
Bright Ruby already owns two Sydney office towers, 10 Barrack Street and 231 Elizabeth Street.
Hilton will continue to manage this property, subject to a 50-year management agreement, the company said of the 579-room hotel on George Street. 
Hilton Worldwide chief executive Christopher Nassetta said the company had taken advantage of "attractive pricing".
It was sold at a multiple of 15 times adjusted earnings, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, on a yield of about 6% through JLL Hotels &amp; Hospitality Group Australasia chief, Craig Collins.
Bright Ruby’s founding Du family are from the Chinese coastal province Shandong.
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Sydney Hilton Hotel sells to Singaporean Bright Ruby

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One of the Queensland Gold Coast glitter strip’s last remaining 1950s beach shacks fetched $870,000 at recent auction.
Yellow Cottage, the three bedroom Surfers Paradise shack on 405 square metres at 15 Thornton Street, sits surrounded by highrise residential buildings, including Thornton Towers.
Ray White Broadbeach selling agent Stuart Reeder sold it to a builder after he outbid three other registered parties, with plans to renovate but not rebuild the site by Hammer Brothers Construction.
The shack was sold after four decades in the same family.
It was last available for rent in 2013 at a $450 weekly asking price.
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1950s Surfers Paradise glitter strip auction relic

One of Brisbane's last major riverfront redevelopment opportunities has taken a significant step forward, with Lendlease selected as the Queensland Government's preferred development partner for the former Visy site in South Brisbane.

The seven-hectare industrial site, positioned between South Bank and West End and 1.3 kilometres from the Brisbane CBD, will be transformed into a mixed-use precinct expected to deliver more than 4,000 new homes alongside extensive public open space and riverfront parkland.

The project is one of the largest urban renewal opportunities currently planned in Brisbane and is expected to play a key role in accommodating the city's growing population ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Plans for the precinct include a network of riverfront promenades and boardwalks, new public plazas, parkland, amphitheatre-style gathering spaces and shared pedestrian and cycling links designed to reconnect the long-isolated site with the Brisbane River.

The Queensland Government is targeting delivery of the first homes and key public spaces before the 2032 Games, allowing the precinct to begin contributing new housing and public amenity well before the broader masterplan is complete.

The redevelopment is also expected to support more than 3,000 jobs across planning, construction and ongoing operations.

For Lendlease, the appointment adds another major urban regeneration project to its Queensland portfolio. The developer has operated in the state for more than 70 years and has delivered a number of large-scale mixed-use precincts in partnership with government.

Lendlease Development CEO Claire Johnston said the project represented one of Brisbane's most significant redevelopment opportunities.

"The transformation of the former Visy site represents a rare opportunity to reimagine one of Brisbane's most significant riverfront locations, deliver thousands of much-needed homes, and create long-term legacy," Johnston said.

"In partnership with the Queensland Government, we have the opportunity to create a new riverside destination that will help shape Brisbane's growth and how people experience the city for decades to come.

"This is exactly the type of large-scale, city-shaping development that will provide lasting benefits for Queensland, bringing together housing, jobs and world-class public spaces."

Deputy Premier and Minister for State Development, Infrastructure and Planning Jarrod Bleijie said the riverfront transformation would deliver a thriving new community precinct.

“The Crisafulli Government is delivering this golden opportunity to unlock a riverfront jewel for all Queenslanders,” Deputy Premier Bleijie said.

“This is a once-in-a-generation moment to reshape a significant slice of Brisbane and deliver lasting benefits – thousands of new homes, and public spaces for all Queenslanders to enjoy well beyond the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games – unlike Labor’s plan which would have delivered zero benefits and zero new homes.

“Queensland is well and truly open for business and through partnership with the private sector, we are accelerating delivery while ensuring strong housing, community and economic outcomes."

Early works on the precinct are expected to commence in April 2027.

Joel Robinson

Lendlease selected to deliver transformative South Brisbane riverfront precinct

Eddy Haddad's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/level-33">Level 33</a> is levelling up its approved Wollongong development, as the coastal city south of Sydney continues to prove popular in the high-density development space.

Level 33, a longtime developer in the Wollongong area, has gone through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority to upsize its approved two-tower development on the corner of Crown Street and Gladstone Avenue, just 100 metres from Wollongong Station.

The developer currently has approval for 252 apartments across two buildings rising to 19 storeys. It is now seeking approval for 33 and 38-storey towers that would deliver 467 apartments, including 67 affordable homes.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bka-architecture">BKA Architecture</a>, the development would comprise apartments above a three-level podium with around 1,100 sqm of retail space, along with basement parking for 448 vehicles.

According to the Urban Design Report by BKA, the proposal has the capacity to "reinforce the precinct's identity by strengthening links between health, education, and transport services, while also contributing to Wollongong's ongoing evolution as a key regional centre."

Wollongong is somewhat in vogue. Between Level 33 and Urban Property Group, the two developers have several thousand apartments planned across the city.

Level 33 is currently delivering Easterly Wollongong, one of its most boutique projects to date with just 21 high-end apartments, as well as Atchison &amp; Kenny, a 329-apartment development due for completion later this year.

The developer plans to redevelop the 13,088 sqm WIN Grand megasite into <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crown-square-216-238-keira-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Crown Square</a>, a new $500 million precinct with nearly 600 apartments. It also has more than 900 apartments planned for the former Bunnings Warehouse site at the intersection of Gipps and Flinders streets.

Urban Property Group is also playing a major role in the city's transformation. Its five-tower Keira Place precinct will deliver more than 800 homes, and it has recently lodged plans for a further 300 apartments near Wollongong Station.

First look: Level 33 upsizes Wollongong apartment towers

Just a week after filing plans for the final stage of its major Keira Place masterplan, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has unveiled another significant housing proposal in Wollongong, this time targeting a prominent site opposite North Wollongong Station.

The developer has lodged a State Significant Development Application for a 38-storey mixed-use tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-4a-flinders-street-north-wollongong-nsw-2500">4-4A Flinders Street</a>, around one kilometre north of the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place precinct</a> currently taking shape on the edge of the CBD.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b6428f1-6405-4038-8476-897de440e90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium.png?VersionId=QLqEvK0OuCEwRC47oHNftrw2B1YqaHF8" />

Designed by Studio.SC, the proposal comprises a 38-storey mixed-use development containing 303 apartments, including 45 affordable housing units, alongside 174 co-living residences. The scheme also includes ground-floor retail space, extensive landscaping and public domain improvements.

Studio.SC noted in the proposal it "outlines a vision for a landmark transit-oriented mixed-use development centred around North Wollongong Station, designed to support the city’s future growth while responding to the NSW Government’s housing and planning reforms."

The architecture firm said the proposal responds to the opportunities and constraints shaping future growth within the 400-metre catchment of the station and represents "a coordinated and future-focused approach to urban intensification, contributing to the long-term evolution of North Wollongong as a connected, walkable and high-density station precinct."

The site occupies a strategic corner bounded by Flinders Street, Station Street, Stafford Street and the Princes Highway, directly opposite North Wollongong Station.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7863adad-1f71-4022-b850-f44b252738fd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium%20a.png?VersionId=WsU7av0g8_8R2tGHWxgHeFSlhu7yeY1V" />

The proposal follows Urban Property Group's recent submission for the second and final stage of Keira Place, which would deliver a further three buildings comprising 657 homes opposite Beaton Park. It builds on the first stage, which features 150 apartments across two towers and recently commenced construction.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said breaking ground on the first stage marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/urban-property-group-unveils-trio-of-towers-for-next-stage-of-new-wollongong-precinct-keira-place">Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place</a>

First look: Urban Property Group plans next major Wollongong tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/arada">Arada Australia</a> has wasted little time expanding its ambitions in Campsie, lodging plans for a second major project in the rapidly transforming town centre just months after unveiling its three-tower One Campsie proposal on Beamish Street.

The UAE-backed developer has now taken aim at one of the suburb’s most strategically positioned sites, filing a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/10-north-parade-campsie-nsw-2194">33-storey mixed-use tower</a> at 10 London Street and 43 North Parade, directly opposite the future Campsie Metro Station. The proposal is currently on public exhibition and represents another significant vote of confidence in Campsie's emergence as one of Sydney’s key transit-oriented growth centres.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the development would deliver 156 apartments above a podium containing retail and commercial space, creating a new residential and commercial gateway to the town centre. The scheme also includes a four-level above-ground parking podium and a dedicated residential amenity floor featuring wellness and recreation facilities. At least 10 per cent of the apartments would be allocated as affordable housing for a period of 10 years.

The proposal occupies a 1,631 sqm site bounded by London Street, North Parade and Dispensary Lane, immediately adjoining the future Metro station precinct and just metres from Beamish Street’s retail and dining strip. According to the Urban Design Report, the project seeks to deliver "a great place that prioritises human-scaled experience and provides spatial improvements to the area."

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="175a8324-015b-4856-abe3-ce6f23199fa7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium%20campsie.png?VersionId=742UGwXFhFBX4GEl6wX4PYIWREAgn6il" />

Woods Bagot describes the tower as a key marker within Campsie's next phase of growth.

"Located directly opposite the new Campsie Metro Station on North Parade, 10 London Street is a thoughtfully composed 33-storey mixed-use tower that contributes to the ongoing transformation of the town centre," the Architectural Design Report states. The report says the project is intended to provide "high-quality homes within a vibrant, connected urban environment, while helping define Campsie's future skyline."

A strong emphasis has been placed on the public realm. The ground floor incorporates over 500 sqm of retail space and active frontages along both London Street and North Parade, while the podium is wrapped by extensive landscaped planting intended to soften the building's scale and strengthen the pedestrian experience. The development would also widen surrounding footpaths and improve connections between the Metro station and the broader town centre.

Above the podium, residents would have access to more than 1,400 sqm of communal amenities, including a pool, gym and landscaped recreation spaces. A distinctive green-wall treatment extending across four podium levels forms a major architectural feature, helping differentiate the project within the emerging high-density precinct.

The tower's design is closely tied to the broader Campsie Town Centre Master Plan and the arrival of Sydney Metro. The Urban Design Report notes the proposal "directly supports the Campsie Town Centre Master Plan by delivering new homes in a location explicitly identified for growth, improved accessibility, and high-quality urban renewal." It adds that the project contributes to the master plan's vision for a strengthened town centre supported by thousands of new homes around the future Metro station.

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bfd17654-253e-489a-bade-6278d63db412" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/base%20campsie.png?VersionId=3roJPMQGs36dazpkhvpvbDDP73Ld.Ica" />

The application follows Arada Australia's recently lodged One Campsie project at 124–142 Beamish Street and 16–18 Ninth Avenue, where the developer is seeking approval for 346 apartments across three towers rising 24, 32 and 39 storeys. Together, the two proposals would cement Arada Australia as one of the most influential developers shaping Campsie's future urban form.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-arada-files-for-trio-of-apartment-towers-in-campsie-town-centre">First Look: Arada Australia files for trio of apartment towers in Campsie town centre</a>

Arada Australia entered the Australian market in 2024 and has rapidly assembled a significant development pipeline across Sydney. Alongside its Campsie holdings, the developer is soon to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/wattle-green-2-fishburn-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Wattle Green</a> in Castle Hill, and has expanded its local operations following its acquisition of construction firm Roberts &amp; Co.

Located around 14 kilometres south-west of the Sydney CBD, the site sits at the centre of one of Sydney's fastest-changing middle-ring precincts. The Metro conversion of Campsie Station, combined with Canterbury-Bankstown Council's master planning framework, is driving significant residential intensification around Beamish Street and North Parade, with thousands of new homes expected over coming decades.

First look: Arada Australia doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans

For the first time in a long time, Australia's inflation story is starting to look more like a landing than a fight.

The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation eased to four per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April. On the surface, that might not seem like a major move. Inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target range and some categories continue to record stubborn price growth.

But the significance of this result lies less in where inflation sits today and more in what it means for where interest rates are likely heading next.

The biggest takeaway is that inflation continues to move in the right direction.

Markets had been bracing for another sticky result after a period where progress appeared to stall. Instead, headline inflation came in softer than expected, helped by falling fuel prices and easing transport costs. Annual transport inflation halved from 6.6 per cent in April to 3.3 per cent in May, while automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent during the month following lower oil prices and the impact of reduced fuel excise measures.

While petrol prices don't solve Australia's affordability challenges, they are one of the most visible and immediate costs for consumers. Falling fuel costs feed through the economy quickly, helping ease pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses.

The ABS data also showed headline inflation is now sitting at its lowest annual level in several months, reinforcing the broader trend that price growth is gradually moderating.

That trend is important because it aligns with what many economists and lenders have been saying for the last month.

Prior to this week's inflation data, ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank had all shifted their forecasts, now believing the Reserve Bank had likely reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. Following the May inflation release, ANZ reaffirmed that view.

In its latest economic update, ANZ said it expects quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at 3.7 per cent for the June quarter, slightly below the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.8 per cent. Importantly, the bank said that outcome, when combined with slowing economic activity, "supports our view that the cash rate has peaked".

The Reserve Bank has spent the better part of three years attempting to bring inflation under control through higher interest rates. If Australia's major banks are correct and rates have now peaked, the conversation shifts from how much higher rates could go to when they might begin coming down.

Westpac's caution comes from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the measure most closely watched by the Reserve Bank, increased from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent annually. Housing inflation remains elevated at 6.5 per cent, reflecting ongoing increases in rents, electricity costs and new dwelling construction.

Electricity prices remain particularly problematic, rising 21.1 per cent over the past year following the removal of government rebates.

Housing construction costs are also showing signs of renewed pressure. ANZ noted new dwelling costs rose 0.9 per cent in May and are now running at an annualised pace of 8.6 per cent over the past three months. Builders continue to face higher labour, fuel and material costs, a reminder that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

Housing affordability has deteriorated largely because of higher interest rates rather than higher property prices alone. Even modest reductions in mortgage rates would improve borrowing capacity, increase buyer confidence and reduce repayment pressure on existing homeowners.

While August is far from a certainty, the latest inflation result has strengthened the view that the next move in rates is more likely to be down than up. For borrowers, buyers and the development sector, that alone represents a significant shift from the conversation that dominated much of the past two years.

Jonathan Chancellor

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