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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s population growth has typically lagged the economy’s fortunes – people vote with their feet. Rising unemployment typically results in a slowing in net immigration and population growth (typically with a lag), and vice versa (Figure 1).
We are seeing this currently as sluggish growth in activity has resulted in a slowing in population growth. We discuss a few reasons why net immigration and population growth may have already slowed by more than official figures suggest. 
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Australia’s population growth slowed to 1.4% y/y, on current estimates, at the end of 2014 from a peak of more than 2% y/y prior to the GFC. Lower net immigration has contributed most to the slowing but births have also fallen (see page 4) (Figure 3). 
Monthly overseas arrivals and departures data suggest that net immigration slowed further in H1 2015 (Figure 4). In fact, on a sequential basis, population growth already looks to have dipped towards 11⁄4% at end 2014 in annualised terms. 
The slowing in population growth has been most pronounced in the mining states of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory (Figure 5). These states have also seen sharp slowings in 457 visa (Temporary Work (Skilled)) applications which allow recipients to stay in Australia for up to four years. This indicates that slower economic activity and reduced job opportunities in these states has been an important reason for the overall slowing in net immigration. This has taken pressure off unemployment from rising faster than it has in these states. 
Historically, swings in population growth have tended to lag changes in economic momentum. To illustrate, population growth has typically slowed as the unemployment rate has risen, and vice-versa (the one exception being the late 1980s where population growth slowed in advance of the economic cycle) (Figure 6). 
The slowing in population growth underway therefore largely reflects weaker economic activity. From a labour market perspective, slower population growth can be thought of as ‘shock absorber’. It limits upward pressure on the unemployment rate to the extent that it reflects a slower rise in the supply of available workers. A large share of the slowing in net immigration has been among the prime working age (25- 44 year olds). Fewer arrivals British and other European citizens in this age bracket have accounted for half of the decline in permanent and long-term arrivals to Australia since 2012. 
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Measuring population growth accurately in real time is difficult and we suspect that it could be revised lower due to downward revisions to net overseas migration (NOM) over time. 
The ABS count persons as being in the resident population if they are in Australia for at least 12 months in a 16 month period. The problem is that this cannot be known in real time and the ABS cannot produce ‘final’ NOM and population estimates until 21 months after the relevant quarter.1 In the interim its preliminary estimates of NOM are subject to revision which can sometimes be large (Figure 7). In fact, NOM and population growth have already been revised lower since its most recent peak. This could be due to the way the ABS calculates preliminary estimates of NOM. 
To estimate NOM the ABS uses passenger card information combined with propensities from the year before for groups of individuals to ‘NOM in’ or ‘NOM out’. Revisions to NOM can therefore occur if these propensities are changing quickly which may occur if net migration flows are changing rapidly as is currently the case. 
Net immigration has already been slowing faster than expected. For instance, ABS estimates of NOM have already significantly undershot the latest estimates/forecasts by the Department of Immigration made in mid 2014, particularly on the departures side (Figure 8). Net immigration from New Zealand has slowed more sharply than expected as unemployment had been falling across the Tasman but rising in Australia (Figure 9). 
More important, however, has been the much weaker-than-expected decline in net immigration of persons on Working Holiday and Work &amp; Holiday visas and the slowing in net immigration of workers on 457 visas, both reflecting the softness of Australia’s labour market (Figures 10 and 11). 
Finally, net immigration may be weaker than official estimates because published (final) NOM figures have historically overstated net immigration. Given births and deaths can be measured relatively accurately, and total population estimates are provided by the Census every five years, a more accurate estimate of net immigration is calculated as population growth less natural increase. Figure 12 shows that this residual measure of NOM has been lower than published NOM. If history is any guide, therefore, the availability of 2016 Census figures could lead to further downward revisions to NOM and population growth. 
In summary, these factors suggest net immigration and population growth have already slowed by more than official figures suggest. 
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THE OUTLOOK FOR POPULATION GROWTH 
Population growth is expected to slow a little further in the near term as lags from slower economic activity feed through. Over the next five years, it seems likely that population growth will average 11⁄4-11⁄2% per annum (the RBA is now assuming 11⁄2% over the next few years). This would be much slower than growth experienced in recent years but still faster than the 1.1% per annum average growth rate from 1992 to 2006. As net immigration slows, nearly half of Australia’s population growth is again likely to come from natural increase, although this is also slowing. 
NATURAL INCREASE 
The number of births has moderated again in recent years after a brief spurt and is expected to slow further. 
The contribution of natural increase – births less deaths – to population growth steadily declined over time until the mid 2000s (Figure 2). More births then supported population growth as the number of 25-34 year old females – those with the highest fertility rates – rose sharply after being little changed for more than a decade (Figure 13). 
The number of births and natural increase in the population is already slowing. It will slow further as much weaker growth over the past five years in the number of 20-24 year old females will result in slower growth in the population of 25-34 year old females. 
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NET IMMIGRATION 
Unless there is a persistent improvement in labour market conditions, it is difficult to see net immigration increasing in the foreseeable future. While some further slowing in net immigration is expected in the near term, we expect it to then stabilise due to: (i) fewer outflows to New Zealand; (ii) a still high official immigration programme; and (iii) strong international student inflows. 
First, the relative strength of the New Zealand economy, which has resulted in a small outflow of people from Australia across the Tasman, is diminishing. The jobless rate in New Zealand has increased recently amid more moderate economic activity and the increase in labour supply (Figure 14). This could see at least a stabilisation in net immigration between Australia and New Zealand if not some turnaround. 
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Secondly, the intake under Australia’s official Migration Programme has been kept at 190,000 persons for 2015-16. While this level of official migration in recent years has not prevented net immigration from moderating, it will limit its rate of decline by, to some extent, putting a floor under immigration levels (Figure 15). 
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Finally, strong growth in international student arrivals is supporting net immigration. As long as students satisfy the ‘12/16’ rule they are counted as residents for population purposes and many stay in Australia after graduation. 
The number of international student commencements has reached the previous peak in 2009 when its contribution to net immigration peaked at around 120K persons per annum (Figure 16). Department of Immigration forecasts, which appear broadly on track, suggest a similarly large contribution to NOM over the next few years which would add 0.4ppts to annual population growth. (Students may add less to potential labour supply than other immigrants, however, as they are limited to working 20 hours per week while studying.) 
This trend is being supported by the weaker Australian dollar, streamlined policies towards overseas students and rule changes that allow overseas students to extend their stay for two to four years upon graduation under a Temporary Graduate visa. 
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IMPLICATIONS OF SLOWER POPULATION GROWTH 
Potential growth and interest rates 
In the medium-term, one implication of slower population growth is lower potential output growth through weaker growth in both demand and supply. Given the aging population, potential labour supply growth would be even slower absent a persistent increase in labour force participation. 
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Assuming annual productivity growth around its long-run average of 11⁄2%, potential output growth could fall closer to 23⁄4% per annum over the medium term, well below the 3–31⁄4% widely assumed previously. While it’s per capita growth that ultimately determines standards of living, lower potential GDP growth would imply lower interest rates than otherwise (Figure 17). 
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Housing demand 
One source of slower potential output growth is that slowing population growth would, over time, reduce underlying demand for housing. While several years of underbuilding means that there remains excess demand for housing, particularly in Sydney, smaller increases in the population will eventually result in weaker housing demand. 
In this regard, relatively small changes in population growth matter for housing demand. For example, annual population growth of 11⁄4% would add around 125k less people per annum to the population compared with growth of 13⁄4% (Figure 18). Assuming 2.5 persons per household, this would mean housing demand drops by roughly 50k dwellings per year. 
A complicating factor is that international students are expected to account for a noticeable share of population growth in the near term. As mentioned recently by the RBA, demand for housing from students may be different to that from other immigrants, including because they have lower incomes and are typically younger. They are also likely to demand housing close to universities and apartment living rather than detached housing. The composition of student arrivals, however, may also have a bearing on the type of housing sought. 
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Justin Fabo is senior economist, ANZ. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/justinfabo" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australia's sluggish population growth: Justin Fabo

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVATION</div>
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<div class="column">Petrol prices lifted for the second consecutive week and motorists certainly have the right to question why. Global oil prices are continuing to fall, the Aussie dollar has held up well and yet domestic pump prices have lifted in the past fortnight. Even in Aussie dollar terms the Singapore unleaded price has now fallen for seven of the past eight weeks having lost a cumulative total of over AUD$13, and is now holding at a 17-week low – a result that should keep domestic pump prices under downward pressure.</div>
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 The Reserve Bank made mention of the lift in retail petrol margins in the Statement of Monetary Policy last week. CommSec analysis of the raw margin between the retail price and terminal gate price has risen to 12.4 cents in the past fortnight, well above the 5-year average of 9.3 cents. To some degree when oil prices are falling rapidly margins tend to expand as petrol retailers sell higher priced fuel first in petrol station bunkers before selling the cheaper fuel. The situation will bear further scrutiny in coming weeks.
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The US summer driving season is nearing an end and the lift in gasoline stockpiles is putting downward pressure on global oil prices. In addition the Iran nuclear deal with the West could lead to a lift in sanctions on the former’s oil exports – adding further to global supply and depressing prices. Interestingly had the pressure on global oil prices been earlier in the year motorists could have been paying a $1 a litre for fuel given the stronger Australian dollar. 
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Figures from MotorMouth show that petrol prices have been falling for just over a week in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, although prices in Sydney and Adelaide have been falling a lot sharper than in Melbourne. Meanwhile prices hit the high point (peak) on August 7 in Brisbane and are only just starting to ease. Only Perth operates on a uniform weekly cycle. The bottom line is that prices will continue to slide over the coming week and motorists would be better off waiting a few more days before filling up the family vehicle.
The latest lending statistics show a mild rebound in June, largely driven by the strength in housing finance and in that context it is investor housing in particular that has driven the strength. Overall lending is only just shy of the seven-year highs reached two months ago. However the recent announcements and media commentary on the tighter bank lending standards is likely to start weighing on the sector. While housing activity will continue to be the backbone of the economy over the coming year, it is starting to show signs of cooling – especially when it comes to irrational exuberance.
The main disappointment in the latest lending finance results would be commercial loans. If there is an anticipated pullback in home lending policymakers would be hoping that activity amongst the business sector lifts from here. Commercial loans are up almost 4 per cent on a year ago. Business conditions are healthy, however businesses are still rather tentative about borrowing. The key driver of future lending will be an ongoing improvement in labour market conditions, rise in business hiring intentions and lift in consumer confidence.
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<li>What do the figures show?</li>
<li>Petrol price:</li>
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According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of petrol rose by 0.8 cents per litre to 138.5 cents per litre in the week to August 9. The metropolitan petrol price rose by 1.2 cents to 137.7 cents per litre and the regional price was unchanged at 140.1 cents per litre.
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.5 cents to 133.5 cents per litre in the week to August 9. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.6 cents to 131.3 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.5 cents to 135.3 c/l.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 2.1 cents to 136.7 c/l), Melbourne (up 9.0 cents to 142.3 c/l), Brisbane (down 0.6 cents to 135.3 c/l),
Adelaide (down 4.7 cents to 133.8 c/l), Perth (down 1.4 cents to 136.2 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.2 cents to 134.3 c/l), Canberra (down 2.7 cents to 135.9 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.1 cents to 142.7 c/l).
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at a near 3-month low of 123.8 cents a litre, down 1 cent a litre on a week ago but still up from the 6-year low of 100.4 cents per litre set on January 20.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price fell by US85c or 1.2 per cent to US$71.95 a barrel – a 17-week low. Singapore gasoline previously hit a near 6-year low (lowest since March 2009) of US$52.20 a barrel on January 13. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.14 a barrel or 2.2 per cent last week to $97.67 a barrel or 61.42 cents a litre.
Lending finance
Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) rose by 0.8 per cent in June to $74.7 billion after a 4.3 per cent fall in May. New loans are up 3.6 per cent over the year.
Housing finance: The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases rose by 5.5 per cent in June while alterations &amp; additions rose by 9.3 per cent. Home loans are up 9.7 per cent on a year. 
 
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 Commercial finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 1 per cent in June. Revolving credit commitments fell by 1.5 per cent while fixed lending 
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Personal finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose by 1 per cent in June after falling by 2 per cent in May. Revolving credit commitments fell by 0.9 per cent and fixed lending commitments rose by 2.3 per cent. Personal loans are down 9.9 per cent over the year. Within personal fixed finance commitments, finance for used cars was up 6.4 per cent on a year earlier while loans for new cars were up by 12.8 per cent. Lease finance: Lending rose by 1.6 per cent in June after rising by 0.8 per cent in May. Lease finance fell by 5.0 per cent over the year.
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<li>What is the importance of the economic data?</li>
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Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy. Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
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<li>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</li>
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While the vagaries of the discounting cycle continues to be the key driver of such vast shifts in pump prices across the nation, motorists can still benefit. The discounting cycle provides the best opportunity to purchase fuel at or below the cost (terminal gate) price – and in turn save a few extra dollars. Between the peak and the trough in the cycle motorists could save themselves as much as 20 cents a litre or around $10-$15 to fill up a tank with fuel. In major capital cities the best time to fill up the family vehicle may be later in the week.
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 CommSec expects interest rates to remain on hold over the rest of 2015. 
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/commsec" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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End of irrational housing price exuberance? Savanth Sebastian

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Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond has repeated his concern that APRA's clampdown on lending to local housing investors may be giving foreign investors an advantage in the market.
John Symond suggested the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's 10% a year cap on housing investor credit growth was having no impact on foreigners buying property.
"I'm not for one minute saying you know, shoo our foreign investors away, this country survives on foreign investment," he told a parliamentary inquiry in Sydney last week.
<a href="/expert-insights/finance/chinese-buyers-to-benefit-from-apra-crackdown-on-local-borrowers-john-symond">He first raised concerns in May</a>.
"But you've got to have a level playing field, and if you have a look at the amount of foreign investment that has come in and bought up housing, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne over the last 24 months. I know, as far as Asia, the numbers I've seen, has more than doubled,"  he said.
"Now they don't have any APRA restrictions, because they don't toddle off to a bank or a building society and borrow their money."
APRA has defended recent efforts to slow down lending to investors to the federal government inquiry into home ownership, the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into Home Ownership.
But the APRA chairman Wayne Byers said the full effect would not be felt for some time, especially how the crackdown affects the balance between major and non-major lenders.
“Given implementation is still 11 months away, it is too early to assess the impact of this change on the housing loan market.  
“The extent to which those banks are capable of repricing their business in response will provide an interesting insight into the extent to which the largest banks are subject to competitive pressure from the range of other housing lenders present in the market.”
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John Symond fears APRA's crackdown leaves unlevel playing field 

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Top rating 2GB broadcaster Ray Hadley is off to Pitt Town, in Sydney's north west, where he has secured a 6000 sqm building block near the Hawkesbury River.
"I’ve secured a block and will hopefully be building a Binet home on it," he said.
It is in within the <a href="https://www.johnsonpropertygroup.com.au/blog/vermont/riverland/vips-snap-up-three-latest-land-releases/">pricey Riverland subdivision</a> within the 225 hectare Vermont estate by the Johnson Property Group. Keith Johnson has already secured some 500 blocks being sold.
Situated near the Hills District, Rouse Hill and Norwest Business Park, Riverland will have blocks from 2,000 sq m to 9,000 sq m.
"The village of Pitt Town reminds me of Dural when I moved there 20 years ago," Ray Hadley said.
"It’s quite remarkable I’m moving there given I campaigned against the development when it was first proposed. 
"I thought it would ruin the village, but Keith Johnson and I met, had an argument or two, settled our differences, and the rest is history."
"The masterplan changed and now radiating out from the village you’ll find magnificent homes on good size blocks." 
As Ray travels early in the morning and can access the M7 and M2 quite quickly, he's not fazed by being further out than Dural. 
The decision to move comes as he is selling his dress circle Hills district acreage home at Dural.
"I'd never thought I'd do it, I thought I'd die there."
This article was first published in The Sunday Telegraph.
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Ray Hadley heading to Riverland, Vermont after his reconcilliation with Johnson Property Group

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The Credit Suisse head of private banking Edward Jewell-Tait and his wife, Jo didn't stay long in the Southern Highlands. 
Two Gates Farm, their 40-hectare property bought at Robertson for $4.55 million in 2014 from the former World Cup winning Wallabies coach Bob Dwyer and his wife, Ruth, has been resold. 
The Richard Rowe-designed pavillion-style house in Annie Wilkes-designed gardens fetched $4.7 million this time.
The eight month gap saw the highlands kick quite nicely especially in activity.
This article was first published in The Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Edward Jewell Tait sells Two Gates Farm, Robertson

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The Waterhouse racing clan have undertaken an internal shuffle of ownership of one of their Balmoral Beach luxury apartments.
Louise Raedler-Waterhouse has ended up with young bookie Tom Waterhouse's redundant duplex apartment.
The paperwork will show his aunt paying $4.38 million for The Esplanade apartment, which was acquired for $3.51 million in 2008.
Tom, of course, spent $13 million last year on his beachfront Balmoral residence with wife Hoda, following their first child daughter Rose in 2013. 
The Australian head of William Hill's operation, who has long loved the Balmoral promenade, is the fourth generation of Australia's most famous bookmaking family.
This article first appeared in The Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Tom Waterhouse sells Balmoral Beach prestige apartment 

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It hasn't been on the market for five decades, but now the first ever strata apartment in Sydney is up for sale.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-nsw-enfield-120326185" target="_blank">The apartment</a> was inherited by the now 92­-year-­old Mary Ingall from her parents.
The two bedroom, ground floor 1960s apartment, at 1/189 Liverpool Road, Enfield is lot number one in strata plan one. 
The ordinary apartment complex, Lindsay Gardens was the world’s first ever strata-titled building.
It is offered through Ray White Drummoyne agent Chris Wilkins with $450,000 guidance.
The NSW government is currently reforming strata laws about renewal of older blocks, with compulsory acquisition on the agenda, but this offering is unlikely to trigger the beginning of any prospective whole block developer buy-up.
This article was first published in The Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Lot 1, strata 1, Liverpool Road Burwood offering after 50 years ownership

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australians have very high expectations of their public transport systems. They consistently prefer investment in public transport over investment in roads. State elections have been lost when politicians don’t meet those expectations.
As a researcher in public transport, I am frustrated by a narrative I see time and again. It comes up in comments in focus groups and pops up at the bottom of news articles. It goes something like this:
"I’ve been to London / New York / Tokyo and their public transport system is better / cheaper / more reliable than ours! Why can’t our public transport be that good?"
Australia’s public transport systems seem shoddy compared to other countries for a number of reasons. These reasons make me question whether those comparisons are valid.
<h2>When on holiday, don’t do as commuters do</h2>
The first reason this comparison is flawed is because when we’re on holiday, we don’t use public transport the same way we do in our mundane commute back home.
When you’re on holiday your concept of time and money is different. A few extra dollars for a tourist pass, a few extra minutes on the platform, it all becomes part of the adventure of travel. A few extra dollars or minutes back home is another inconvenience in your daily grind.
Chances are when you visited London, Tokyo or New York you visited the exciting tourist centres of these cities – places where public transport is at its best.
You probably didn’t visit Woldingham, Tachikawa or Port Washington – outlying suburbs beyond the reach of metro systems. Places where the trains only run every 20 minutes or, heaven forbid, you may have to use a bus. Places a lot more like the suburbs back home.
<h2>Australia’s super cities</h2>
The other reason this comparison is flawed is due to the super-size of Australia’s cities. How that came about is an accident of history as much as anything. Many of the overseas cities Australians idolise did most of their growing before the private car became embedded into the transport system. This resulted in compact urban forms served by narrow, winding streets.
That urban form was designed to suit the needs of pedestrians, horse carts and trams. By the time the car came along it had to be retrofitted into the city.
In contrast, Australian cities – along with many American cities – did most of their growing in parallel with the explosion of motor vehicle ownership. Highways and cars facilitated the post-war suburban explosion, allowing millions to live the dream of quarter-acre blocks far from the city centre.
Because of this legacy, Australian cities are enormously far-reaching. In most capitals you can drive for 100km and still be within the same city limits.  Melbourne’s footprint is six times the size of London with half its population; Brisbane is 20 times the footprint of New York City with one-quarter of its population. 
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89420/area14mp/image-20150723-22849-1ao8g4e.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89420/width668/image-20150723-22849-1ao8g4e.png" alt=""></a>
London (1,572 sq km, 8.3 million people) vs Melbourne (9,990 sq km, 4.3 million). https://mapfrappe.com
<div class="enlarge_hint"> </div>
 
 
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89421/area14mp/image-20150723-22816-afd8si.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89421/width668/image-20150723-22816-afd8si.png" alt=""></a>
New York City (790 sq km, 8.4 million people) vs Brisbane (15,826 sq km, 2.2 million). 
In Australia, public transport has to play catch-up constrained by an urban form designed by and for the car. This isn’t an impossible task, by any means, but it suggests that perhaps we’re comparing ourselves to the wrong cities.
What if we made more realistic comparisons? For example Portland, Oregon, is around the same size and has about the same population of Brisbane. It is held up as one of the “best transit cities” in the United States. Yet Brisbane has more public transport trips per capita – around 70 per year – than Portland, which has 58 per year.
If Australia’s cities were ranked alongside American cities in public transport trips per year, Sydney and Melbourne would both rank third behind New York and San Francisco, Perth would rank ninth (above Chicago) and Brisbane would rank tenth (above Philadelphia).
<h2>A call to (realistic) action</h2>
I am glad that Australians have high expectations of their public transport systems, and I will continue to advocate for improving public transport as an integral part of efficient, sustainable cities. But Sydney will never be Tokyo and Adelaide will never be London – nor should they be.
We already have strong, uniquely Australian legacies to build on. Adelaide and Brisbane were some of the first cities in the world to invest in bus rapid transit. Melbourne has the largest streetcar (tram) network in the world.
Rather than lamenting what we are not, let us focus on making Australian public transport systems the very best they can be.
Alexa Delbosc is lecturer in transport at Monash University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alexa-delbosc-147245" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Public transport is always greener on the other side

The former tennis champion Pat Rafter and wife Lara have purchased a coastal Byron Bay paddock. Its 28 hectares subdivided off an original Broken Head farm.

No home on the site, just grazing cattle.&nbsp;

&quot;A country escape only minutes from the beach and moments from Byron Bay&nbsp;with a creek flat and an elevated building site,&quot; was the marketing pitch of&nbsp;LJ Hooker selling agent Glen Irwin, who had the listing inconjunction with Lois Buckett.

It had been on Irwin&#39;s books at a $1.75 million asking price for just over a year until its recent sale.

Locals jokingly expect a tennis academy, Florida-style, but I am advised it will be a family retreat for the Queensland-based family once the home is built.

The gently sloping land with some big fig trees had not been offered for sale in over 75 years.

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The Noosa-based&nbsp;sportsman&#39;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-nsw-broken+head-2806390" target="_blank">$1.35 million purchase</a> from the Boyes family marks a return to NSW property for the family who&nbsp;sold their Woollahra terrace after seven years ownership for $2.4 million in 2014.

They previously had&nbsp;a Sydney home on Hopetoun Avenue, Mosman which was sold in 2007 for $7.75 million.

The former world No. 1&nbsp;is Australia&#39;s Davis Cup captain and since earlier this year Tennis Australia&#39;s new director of performance.

This article was first published in The Sunday Telegraph.

Pat Rafter buys Byron Bay paddock

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The Opposition has again slammed Treasurer Joe Hockey's latest crackdown on foreigners owning Australian land, describing it as a diversion from tackling housing affordability.
Mr Hockey announced the forced sale of six homes around the country. 
Three of the properties were in the Sydney suburbs of Eastwood, Fairfield and Mosman, two were in Kewdale in Perth and the other at Eight Mile Plains on the outskirts of Brisbane.
There were five owners from four different countries who had come forward since the crackdown began in ernest with a $39 million diverestiture order against a Piper Point buyer in March.
The six self reported cases ranged in price from $152,000 to $1.86 million.
There are 50 investigators looking into 462 cases in which foreigners were suspected of having bought or retained existing property without correct approvals. 
The Australian Taxation Office, the Foreign Investment Review Board, Department of Immigration and AUSTRAC have uncovered more than 2000 pieces of information relating to suspected breaches since monitoring of residential property acquisitions was shifted to the ATO in May from the FIRB. 
The Treasurer outlined his new, harsher penalties that will be enforced from December, against foreign investors who illegally buy established Australian properties or don't sell when the laws required.
"The period of amnesty we announced in May means that no criminal conviction is recorded for those who self-report by November 30, and they have to re-sell their property in 12 months, instead of three," Mr Hockey said.
"Australia welcomes foreign investment and Australia needs foreign investment but, at all times, foreign investors must comply with our laws," Joe Hockey said on Saturday.
"Some of the five investors have purchased property with Foreign Investment Review Board approval, but their circumstances have changed and they have failed to comply with the divestment requirements.
"Some have simply broken the rules by purchasing a property without approval and done so against the law.
"Time is running out for foreign investors to voluntarily come forward if they have illegally purchased existing residential real estate," Mr Hockey warned. 
"They have until November 30, 2015 to come to us before we come to them."
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Foreigners admit overstaying their Australian land ownership  

The Gold Coast economy has grown by 25 per cent since 2020/21 to surpass $55 billion, but perhaps the more significant story is what sits behind the headline number.

For decades, the Gold Coast has been viewed through the lens of tourism, lifestyle and population growth. The latest State of the City Report suggests that perception is increasingly out of step with reality.

Released by Invest Gold Coast, the report ranks the Gold Coast as Australia's largest non-capital city economy and, perhaps more notably, second nationally behind Sydney for Economic Complexity, a measure that assesses the diversity and sophistication of an economy.

It's a result that places the Gold Coast ahead of Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, highlighting the extent to which the city's economic base has broadened beyond its traditional industries.

Today, the Gold Coast supports more than 350,000 jobs, is home to over 83,000 businesses and generates $19 billion in annual exports. Manufacturing now accounts for 62 per cent of international export growth, while sectors including health, education, advanced manufacturing, technology and professional services are becoming increasingly important contributors to the local economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said the report confirmed the city's evolution into one of Australia's most significant economies.

"The Gold Coast economy continues to grow at an incredible pace. This is no surprise to those of us who have watched the evolution up close," Mayor Tate said.

"As one of the most entrepreneurial, investment driven and opportunity focused economies in the country our ambition has been realised and possibilities are endless.

"The Gold Coast has built a reputation as the city that says yes. We say yes to investment, yes to opportunity and yes to people who want to build something.

"It's this mindset helping us drive major growth across health, advanced manufacturing, screen production, marine, technology and the knowledge economy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

While population growth has been one of the defining stories of the past decade, the report points to a broader economic transformation taking place.

The city's knowledge economy now contributes $7.9 billion annually and supports around 31,000 jobs, while the health and wellbeing sector contributes $5.2 billion and employs more than 42,000 people. Together, the six priority sectors identified in the report account for almost $24 billion in economic output and more than 145,000 jobs.

One of the strongest examples is the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct at Southport. The 200-hectare precinct now contains more than $5 billion worth of health, education, research and innovation infrastructure and supports over 16,000 jobs.

The report also highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing, particularly in aerospace, defence and modular construction.

Gold Coast-based Gilmour Space Technologies recently became the first Australian commercial company to attempt an orbital launch, while companies including Modscape and ModnPods are helping establish the Yatala-Stapylton corridor as one of Australia's fastest-growing advanced manufacturing hubs.

The city's entrepreneurial culture is also translating into business growth.

Since 2019/20, the number of businesses operating on the Gold Coast has increased by 22 per cent, while firms employing more than 200 people have grown by 80 per cent. The report suggests the next challenge is converting more local start-ups and medium-sized businesses into nationally significant companies.

Development activity remains another key indicator of confidence.

There are currently more than $23 billion worth of major projects underway across the Gold Coast, supported by a record 75 active cranes, a figure that now exceeds Brisbane and represents a 150 per cent increase since 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343235]

Importantly, the report notes the next phase of investment will need to extend beyond residential development.

While 93 per cent of crane activity is currently tied to housing, Invest Gold Coast argues future investment will increasingly need to focus on cultural, civic, infrastructure and industry-enabling projects that strengthen the city's long-term economic resilience.

Invest Gold Coast Chair Will Hodgman said the city was now benefiting from years of economic diversification.

"What is happening on the Gold Coast is the result of the city's economic base broadening, fuelled by industries with long-term, high-growth potential," Mr Hodgman said.

"This is no longer a secondary Australian economy, the Gold Coast is becoming a globally connected city with deeper capability across health, knowledge and creative industries, advanced manufacturing, technology and exports."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365786]

Looking ahead, the Gold Coast's population is projected to exceed one million residents by 2046.

For a city that was once largely defined by tourism and lifestyle, the latest figures suggest the Gold Coast is becoming something more significant, one of Australia's most diverse and economically sophisticated urban economies, and increasingly one that national and international investors can no longer afford to overlook.

Joel Robinson

75 cranes, $23 billion pipeline and a $55 billion economy: Inside the Gold Coast economic boom

Ron Bakir's Homecorp has sold more than 75 per cent of the apartments in its wellness-driven Florence Residences in Surfers Paradise following its first weekend release.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/florence-residences-24-monte-carlo-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">26-storey project on Monte Carlo Avenue</a>, which commenced construction earlier this year, has seen a flurry of buyers secure their slice of the Gold Coast's latest wellbeing-focused offering in one of the nation's most competitive property markets.

Since the pandemic, the Gold Coast's population has grown by more than 11 per cent, a rate approximately four times faster than Sydney's, driven largely by lifestyle changes and interstate migration. While buyer activity has moderated in some markets nationally, demand for newly built dwellings on the Gold Coast continues to gain momentum as purchasers increasingly prioritise lifestyle, amenity, wellbeing, liveability and long-term investment potential.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372743]

Homecorp CEO Ron Bakir says buyers today are looking for more than just a home.

"What we are seeing is a shift in how people define value in property," Bakir says.

"What attracts residents to new developments is a desire for more than just a residence. They are looking for a place that complements their lifestyle, supports their wellbeing and reflects the way they want to live into the future.

"Lifestyle, longevity, proactive health, wellbeing, connection and a sense of community are increasingly shaping purchasing decisions, particularly on the Gold Coast, where these factors continue to be a major drawcard."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372744]

Bakir says Homecorp is responding to this shift through an approach that places greater emphasis on design, amenity and experience working together to create places that feel considered, connected and enduring in value.

Inspired by Eastern European design, Florence Residences will comprise 120 apartments alongside a private residents-only wellness club featuring a resort-style rooftop pool, hot and cold plunge pools, a spa retreat, contemporary gymnasium, and a spacious yoga and Pilates studio.

The development will also feature a residents-only lounge with private dining facilities and a rooftop bar, premium outdoor entertaining areas, a hotel-style lobby lounge, generous bike parking, and pet-friendly amenities including a heated dog wash.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372742]

A limited number of apartments remain available, with an exclusive collection of four-bedroom sub-penthouses set to be released in the coming months.

Florence is one of the latest additions to Homecorp's expanding multi-billion-dollar property portfolio, which also includes plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/homecorp-lodges-plans-for-260-million-moroccan-bathhouse-inspired-tower-in-budds-beach">$260 million development in Budds Beach</a> tailored to the growing wellness market.

A development application has been lodged for a 27-storey, 156-residence tower at 8–10 Acacia Avenue and 25–27 Oak Avenue, featuring a residents-only Moroccan spa-inspired sanctuary.

Apartments at Florence Residences are priced from $1,249,000, with construction expected to be completed by late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150414]

Buyers rush to Homecorp's Florence Residences as Gold Coast wellness trend gains momentum

The NSW Government has expanded its $1 billion Pre-sale Finance Guarantee program, broadening access for affordable housing providers and smaller residential developments as it seeks to accelerate housing delivery across the state.

The Minns Government says the program has already helped bring forward more than 600 homes across Sydney and regional NSW since launching in September 2025, with similar models now adopted in South Australia and Western Australia.

The latest changes, announced by Treasurer Daniel Mookhey and Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, are designed to improve access to finance for projects that have planning approval but are struggling to secure funding.

Among the key changes is an expansion of support for community housing providers. The program will now support up to 100 per cent affordable housing projects valued at up to $30 million when delivered by not-for-profit providers, while support for larger affordable housing developments will increase for projects worth up to $80 million.

The government says the changes will help accelerate the delivery of housing for low-income workers, older people, people living with disability, and those at risk of homelessness, while reducing reliance on direct grants or subsidised loans to bridge funding gaps.

The eligibility criteria for smaller residential developments have also been broadened. The previous $5 million minimum project value threshold has been removed and replaced with a requirement that projects deliver at least four homes.

Support has also increased for projects delivering fewer than 20 homes, with the guarantee now able to cover up to 75 per cent of dwellings in a development, capped at $30 million per project.

The changes are expected to particularly benefit smaller-scale and regional developments, which often face greater challenges meeting pre-sale requirements imposed by lenders.

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the scheme demonstrates how government can use its balance sheet to stimulate housing supply without relying solely on taxpayer-funded grants.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee shows how this Government is using its balance sheet to reduce risk and unlock private investment, enabling new homes to move from design to construction faster," Mookhey said.

"This landmark reform allows us to deliver homes for working families at a lower cost to taxpayers, while also maintaining strong financial discipline."

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the program had already proven effective in bringing stalled projects to market.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee has already proven it can unlock stalled projects and accelerate housing delivery by giving lenders the confidence they need to back good developments," Scully said.

"These changes will allow more affordable housing and smaller developments to access support so more homes can be built faster where communities need them most."

Housing Minister Rose Jackson said the expansion would help community housing providers overcome financing barriers that often delay projects.

"We know community housing providers are ready to build more homes, too often they're held back by barriers to finance," Jackson said.

"Expanding the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee helps remove those barriers so more affordable homes can get off the ground sooner."

The announcement was welcomed by the Property Council of Australia, which has long advocated for measures aimed at improving project feasibility and access to finance.

Property Council NSW Executive Director Katie Stevenson described the expansion as a practical intervention that addresses one of the most immediate constraints on housing delivery.

"This is exactly the kind of practical intervention we need right now, focused on getting projects out of the ground, not just approved," Stevenson said.

"It builds on a model the Property Council has worked closely with government to develop following calls for such a scheme ahead of last year's NSW Budget, so it's great to see it being expanded."

Stevenson said the reforms would help unlock projects that are ready to proceed but have been delayed by financing challenges. However, she noted that broader feasibility issues remain a significant barrier to increasing housing supply.

"The biggest challenge in NSW housing today is delivery. Too many projects have planning approval but are simply not financially viable to proceed under current settings," she said.

Speaking at the Property Council's NSW Housing Summit, Housing Minister Rose Jackson acknowledged that feasibility and financing pressures continue to constrain housing delivery, while reaffirming the government's commitment to work with industry on solutions.

Stevenson said the government's recognition of those challenges was encouraging ahead of next week's state budget.

"It's positive to see the government clearly recognising that feasibility pressures are now a binding constraint on supply," she said.

"With the Budget just days away, the focus must be on backing delivery, making sure projects stack up, finance can flow, and more homes can move from approval to construction."

The expanded Pre-sale Finance Guarantee forms part of the NSW Government's broader housing agenda, which also includes planning reforms, the NSW Housing Pattern Book, and a series of rezonings intended to increase housing capacity across the state.

NSW expands Pre-sale Finance Guarantee to unlock more affordable and regional housing

Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

Jonathan Chancellor

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