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GUEST OBSERVER
With debate raging over who wins and who loses with proposed major changes to negative gearing, attention also falls on which Australian suburbs are most likely to suffer.
The Australian Financial Review recently discussed the “Top 10 suburbs set to suffer under negative gearing plan”. The Australian soon joined this scare campaign. Mandurah in Western Australia, where I spent a recent weekend, is on the AFR’s list.
When I grew up this was a lazy holiday town at the entry to an inlet. It’s now one of Australia’s fastest-growing suburbs with a 50-minute train connection to central Perth. Within walking distance of the town centre is a cluster of relatively recent medium-density mixed-use developments on or near the waterfront. The dolphins and crabs are prolific and opportunities for swimming, boating and kayaking are at everyone’s doorstep.
Unlike most outer suburban developments, the housing is relatively dense – mostly about four to five storeys high, with a couple of blocks up to ten storeys. This is a highly walkable neighbourhood with generous public space. Shops and cafes line much of the ground floor.
<h2>Built density but lacking intensity</h2>
This is not far from the kind of urban development we need a lot more of in Australian cities – places that encourage people to walk to work, shopping and recreation; where densities are high enough to support a good range of shopping and public transport.
The main problem here is that while the built density is relatively high, the population density is less than your average suburb.
The AFR article suggests this is the kind of place that is “set to suffer”, yet these parts of Mandurah already suffer from an occupancy rate that locals estimate at 20%. The empty housing has had a spillover effect into empty shops and offices, empty streets and parks, and poor public transport.
The public space is bereft of vitality (and the safety that comes with it); beaches, parks and walkways are largely empty even on a warm February weekend. While there is lots of built density, there is little intensity of public life. The streets are lined with empty shops used as billboards for real estate and financial services.
<div class="enlarge_hint">While much of this is holiday housing, it is within commuting distance of a major city. How much of it is going to waste simply because those who own it can profit from making a loss under the current negative-gearing rules?</div>
<h2>Bringing empty housing onto the market</h2>
While curbing negative gearing would ease house prices in the short term, in the longer term suburbs like this are set to benefit because it will surely bring much of this empty housing onto the market. Then the synergies of higher-density mixed-use development within reach of good public transport will begin to come into play.
As more residents live within walking distance, more amenities will become viable. The more people walk or cycle, the better the health and transport outcomes.
Ultimately, this is the kind of vibrant walkable city we need to build more of to achieve serious reductions in CO2 emissions – places where we can live great and healthy lives with less reliance on cars.
It is impossible to say how much this production of empty architecture is a function of negative gearing since it also goes hand-in-hand with neoliberal markets and high disparities of wealth. However, the curbing of negative gearing will have a significant impact in getting empty housing onto the market.
This in turn could go some way to reversing this cycle of emptiness – bringing life to the shops, offices, streets, parks and public transport.
<h2>‘Positive gearing’ across Australia</h2>
This is not just a benefit to places like inner Mandurah. It also applies to other empty suburbs and even high-density inner-city neighbourhoods. Southbank and Docklands in Melbourne come to mind as places that produce largely empty buildings – density without intensity.
Negative gearing produces an underutilisation of urban space. The imperative to curb it has important implications for the future of Australian cities.
And this raises a further question – why stop there? If we are looking for new tax revenues that will help to balance the budget, curb CO2 emissions and increase the productivity and vitality of cities, then why not tax the underuse of urban space? Perhaps we could call it “positive gearing”.
Kim Dovey is professor, Architecture and Urban Design, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-dovey-107660" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

How negative-gearing changes can bring life back to eerily quiet suburbs

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GUEST OBSERVER
After Labor announced proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told parliament that the policy would administer two contradictory shocks, massive shocks, to the residential housing market. 
They are proposing to remove from the market for established dwellings one-third of demand. All investors would be gone. When I say all investors, I mean all investors.
That assertion was questioned by some listeners at the time, including The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy.
Does the prime minister’s claim stack up?
<h2>Not all property investors negatively gear</h2>
Data is not directly available on what proportion of home purchases are made by investors. Data on new home lending from The Australian Bureau of Statistics' Lending Finance figures indicates that between one-third and half of new lending is to investors. And ABS census data shows that just under a third of existing properties are owned by investors.
But not all of them negatively gear. Some do not borrow, and others do not borrow enough to be negatively geared: that is, their rental income is greater than the expenses and loan interest. The tax stats show us that about two-thirds of all housing investors are negatively geared. This suggests that around 20% of housing buyers are negatively geared investors.
<h2>Investor demand for housing will reduce – but not disappear</h2>
Labor’s proposed changes will reduce the after-tax returns on property investment.
Although negative gearing has attracted more attention, Labor’s proposed changes to capital gains tax will have a bigger impact on returns. Reducing the discount from 50% to 25% will increase the effective tax rates on capital gains, bringing the tax rates closer to those that apply to other sources of investment income such as rental income and bank interest.
Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing will also have an impact. Under the policy, investors who make rental losses – because their rental income is less than their costs, including loan interest costs – will no longer be able to write-off those losses against wage and salary income. But for people investing in new housing there will be no change: they will still able to write-off losses against all forms of individual income.
For most investors in existing properties, the changes to negative gearing mainly affect the timing, not the amount, of tax deductions. Losses can still be deducted against investment income, including subsequent capital gains. But negative gearing may lose some of its psychological appeal. While there is no hard research for Australia, some investment advisors have warned against placing too much emphasis on tax breaks (particularly tax breaks on wages) and not enough on the financial returns to the investment.
Together these policies will reduce investor demand for housing. Indeed, one of Labor’s stated aims of the policy is to make it easier for first home buyers to get into the market.
Some investors will switch to other investment opportunities that offer higher post-tax returns. Others might choose to spend more and invest less. But some will also continue to invest in the housing market, and either borrow less, or simply accept a lower return on investment.
The extent to which investors will vacate the property market will ultimately depend on how much post-tax returns fall, and how sensitive is investor demand for property to changes in returns (what economists would call the “elasticity of demand”).
Our estimates suggest that the changes in effective tax rates from Labor’s policy are relatively modest.
Consider an investor in the top tax bracket, paying 45 cents in the dollar on their marginal income and earning a 6% nominal return on their property (half from rental income, half from capital gain). Let’s say the investor buys a property and then sells it after seven years.
Effective tax rates calculate how much tax is paid on the profit made by the taxpayer. If the investor buys the property outright, the effective tax rate will increase from 33% to 35% under Labor’s policy. If the same investor borrows 40% of the house value then effective tax rates increase from 19% to 22%. And for a negatively geared investor borrowing 80% of the property value, the effective tax rate changes from 5% to 9%.
<a href="/images/2016/03/9/image-20160307-30467-5ajcud.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/9/image-20160307-30467-5ajcud.JPG" alt="">
 
And any changes in post-tax returns under Labor’s policies may be swamped by annual fluctuations in property prices. As the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Executive Ian Narev recently noted:
I can tell you having a $400 billion home loan book – your assumptions on unemployment and what’s happening in global interest rates will dwarf whatever assumptions you’ve got on the modelling about the impact of negative gearing by a factor of… I can’t tell you the number but it’s a big number.
<h2>A massive shock?</h2>
Under Labor’s policy, other passive investments that generate capital gains, such as shares, will also be subject to a more stringent tax treatment. Other investments that will be relatively more attractive after the change – for example, superannuation and bank deposits – have a very different profile of risk, return and liquidity.
No-one can ever perfectly predict investor behaviour. Ultimately, there are a whole host of factors that people take into account when investing in property, including rental returns (particularly for the one third of positively geared investors), risk perception, familiarity with the asset class and ability to obtain bank finance. In our opinion, modest changes in tax treatment are unlikely to change the decision-making calculus for the majority of investors.
Indeed, looking at other countries with less generous tax treatment for investment properties – US, Canada, Germany and France, for example – there is still plenty of investor activity in housing.
Given the evidence we have seen, it is overreach for the prime minister to say that Labor’s policy will drive away all investors away.
Danielle Wood is fellow, Australian Perspectives, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">here</a>.
John Daley is chief executive officer, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Negative gearing changes won't mean all investors depart market

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The stunning success of the land release of rural residential lots on Bowral's historic Retford Park estate, has ensured the longtime home of James Fairfax can be preserved in perpetuity for community access.
Some 71 of the 79 lots offered since the November launch have been snapped, with the upcoming lots priced between $365,000 and $810,000 through Nigel Napoli of <a href="https://retfordparkestate.com" target="_blank">Savills Residential Projects.</a>
The housing lots of Retford Park Estate sits either side of historic Retford Park house, the home of James Fairfax, the former chairman of the now ailing publishing company that bears his family name.
Buyers have come looking for a tree-change, especially from the Illawarra region and Sutherland Shire, Nigel Napoli said.
With land sizes from 1000 sqm to 4.8 hectares, there are set be another 81 building block released over the next six months on the outskirts of Bowral.
The 1880s Italianate residence that is well hidden amid the extensive gardens was bought by James Fairfax in 1964 for £15,000.
James Fairfax set about decorating Retford Park House with advice from designer Leslie Walford with the garden undertaken by English landscape architect John Codrington.
The pool, pool pavilion and aviaries were designed by Melbourne architect Guilford Bell. Over the years, architect Espie Dods added architecturally sympathetic extensions to the home. 
The Retford Park homestead will be preserved in perpetuity for the community with some funds from the neighbouring residential development being directed into a trust which will pay for the long-term upkeep of the home and gardens, the project director Allen Robinson advised.
Philanthropic James Fairfax had envisaged the concept for the past four decades.
"I think Retford Park is an important part of the heritage of the Wingecarribee Shire area and provision has been made in my will for the house and the immediate surrounding land, including the garden, to be left in trust to be viewed by future generations," Mr Fairfax told me in 2009. 
Listed on the register of the national estate since 1980, Retford Park was built as a summer retreat for the Hordern retailing family. It takes its name from the village in Nottinghamshire, the northern England town from where Anthony and Ann Hordern immigrated in 1825.
The grounds have many heritage oaks, an enduring association with the Hordern's retailing business, whose emblem was an oak tree under which were the words "While I live, I'll grow".
<a href="https://sydneyaerialphotography.com" target="_blank">Photo credits go to Tim Mooney</a>.
 
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Retford Park rural residential lots underpinning the Bowral heritage estate's future

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Almost everyday there's a new contradictory report backed up with data and opinion on Sydney's anticipated price direction. Who to believe? The spoiler or spruiker? What to do with your life?
The likelihood is no-one really knows, especially given the negative gearing doubt, but owner occupiers should thoughtfully proceed with caution in this low interest rate environment, while investors will continue t weight up their chase for yield without emotion.
Estate agent John McGrath recently advised that at the end of housing booms, buyers can get a bit obsessed with timing.
"They often hold off believing (or rather, hoping) prices will fall and this delays their purchase," he said, suggesting it comes at a potential cost.
He says after being in the game for 32 years that buying the best property you can afford, when you can afford it; and holding it for the long term is always the best play.
"Believe me, time in the market is much more important than timing the market when you buy," he suggested.
True, but overpay and then sell during the dips Sydney has periodically recorded in recent years, and it's a costly loss. 
Recently $2.62 million secured a Woollahra terrace that sold at $2.7 million in 2007, which provides delicious conversation at the home buyers' house warming.
At Rose Bay, a Harry Seidler-designed penthouse sold last week for around the same $5.6 million price bought it for a decade ago.
The 2/20 Ian Street, Rose Bay apartment sold on Friday ahead of a planned auction through 1st City agents Alexander Gold and Rod Fox.
 
There are plenty of near backward prices undermining another adage that Sydney property doubles every seven years.
The more recent housing cycles have necessarily seen this adage adapted to every 10 years.
But I saw a Macquarie Street, Sydney CBD apartment sell recently at $2 million, having been bought off the plan in 1999 at $1.01 million.
Nationally only 32 percent of homes are currently reselling at double or more than their purchase price, typically owned for 17 years.
Cameron Kusher at CoreLogic RP Data did some research on the decade to January 2016, finding home values across the combined capital cities increased by 72 percent which suggests values aren't doubling over the decade.
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73 percent higher compared to 64 percent increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story.
Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151 percent with house values up 159 percent and unit values 110 percent higher. B
Taking a look at value growth across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results as Melbourne was the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade.
Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra increased by less than 50%. 
But over the 10 years to January 2006, home values more than doubled across every capital.
It all suggests the days of rapid value rises are behind us, or or at least for most of us.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
 
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It's taking longer to double your property price

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<div>
Australia has a serious housing affordability problem, according to Richard Holden, professor of economics at UNSW Australia Business School.
"Since 1997 price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have nearly doubled," he recently wrote in the Australian Financial Review.
"Since 1995, price-to-income ratios have grown 50 per cent more than the OECD average."
He said the undisputed facts were Sydney's price to income ratio of 12.2 makes it the second least affordable city in the world, behind Hong Kong. Melbourne ranks fourth.
"It turns out that London and San Francisco are cheap by comparison."
</div>
<div>In June 2015 he wrote a report for the McKell Institute called Switching Gears, which suggested that certain changes to negative gearing could have a positive impact on housing affordability, the federal budget, job creation and growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The ALP last week announced a policy that essentially adopts this recommendation." </div>
<div> </div>
<div>He said it respected existing investment arrangements and provided a smooth transition away from negative gearing of existing dwellings, rather than an abrupt disruption that would come from either capping or eliminating it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Modifying negative gearing along the lines of my McKell plan is the market-based, incentive-driven approach to solving our housing affordability problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It addresses the skewed tax incentives in the current regime, and it uses the power of markets to tackle the housing affordability problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Perhaps that is why is has been met with general approval from economists like Saul Eslake and Warwick McKibbin, former politicians like Jeff Kennett, and business leaders like Jillian Broadbent."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When I wrote the report I imagined that a pro-market, pro-incentive, fiscal conservative like Malcolm Turnbull would smile on the plan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Instead, it has been welcomed by the Labor Party and Mr Turnbull has booed it," Richard Holden said.</div>
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Malcolm Turnbull should embrace my negative gearing policy: Richard Holden

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Businessman and commentator John Hewson has listed Invergowrie, the Tudor-style Exeter estate, this time for April 16 auction.
Built in the 1930s for the BHP industrialist Sir Cecil Hoskins, the seven bedroom house comes with library, ballroom, studies and billiard room.
The 26 acres grounds have Paul Sorensen gardens with tennis court, bocce pit, swimming pool, croquet lawn, orchard, vegetable gardens, a Japanese garden with waterfall, aviary and three guest houses.
Designed by architect Geoffrey Loveridge, Invergowie replaced Headlands, which had been owned by the Yates seed family.
Before that the Badgery family had what remains the landmark feature of the village of Exeter.
After several changes of ownership, Invergowrie was bought in the 1960s by the Fieldhouse family who invited Paul Sorenson to return and substantailly reverse his earlier planting; for while the Hoskins preferred to have trees and shrubs around the house leaving the boundaries open, the new owners wanted the main plantings to be on the boundaries.
Title Tattle gleans the main Invergowrie gates were relocated from Sydney in the late 1960s by the Fieldhouse family.
Hewson and his wife, Jessica Wilson have enlisted Michael Maloney at Richardson &amp; Wrench Bowral.
The trophy home sale came with $7.5 million expectations this time last year.
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Invergowrie, Exeter relisted by John Hewson

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A former dilapidated house in Leichhardt transformed into a modern home sold at weekend auction for $2,132,000.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-leichhardt-121889078" target="_blank">The four-bedroom house at 80 Edith Street</a> sold through McGrath Inner West having been listed with a price guide of $1.9 million to $2.05 million.
Agent Danielle Dewhurst said nearly 100 groups had seen the property during the campaign.
When the vendors bought the 278sq m property two years ago, they paid $980,000.
The original timber workers cottage had been vacant for 20 years had its original front facade disassembled and rebuilt to the original dimensions.
There are open-plan interiors that flow out to an entertainment deck with lawn and swimming pool.
Each of the four bedrooms have built-in wardrobes and two have ensuites.
The home, that went out and up, also has a three kilowatt solar system and a 5000L water tank.
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Leichhardt cinderella transformed into $2 million onsale

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Estate agents have been told an underquoting audit program will be conducted by NSW Fair Trading commencing today, Monday 7 March lasting for two weeks.
The program will target agents in both Sydney metropolitan and regional locations.
The inspectors will be looking at published advertisements and the Estimated Selling Price contained within agency agreements.  
They will also review and consider the evidence utilised in developing the estimated selling price.
The department has viewed the industry as coping well with the new laws and overall compliance. 
But in the first seven weeks since the laws were introduced on the 1 January 2016, Fair Trading received 68 complaints relating to underquoting. 
"Complaints are from named individuals, anonymous complainants and other real estate agents," a department spokesperson said.
To coincide with the new underquoting laws starting, Fair Trading ran a public awareness campaign to raise awareness and understanding among NSW real estate agents and consumers seeking to buy and sell residential property in NSW.
The campaign advertisements were run throughout January 2016 directing people to underquoting information on the Fair Trading website.
Fair Trading’s online display advertising delivered almost 1 million impressions.
A Facebook campaign was run concurrently with the digital advertising and generated more than 685,000 impressions. 
Fair Trading has information tailored specifically to support agents specifically, a publication was produced – <a href="https://fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/biz_res/ftweb/pdfs/About_us/Publications/Underquoting_guidelines_for_residential_property.pdf" target="_blank">Underquoting guidelines for residential property</a>, including a checklist to help agents with their obligations.  
Also, the mandatory fact sheet, which agents need to supply to sellers when entering into an agency agreement to sell their home, was updated to refer to the new underquoting laws. 
Fair Trading has conducted 119 agent education lessons following a review of more than 5000 advertisements. 
Fair Trading also issued two trader education letters for failing to comply with an undertaking to update advertisements. 
"Fair Trading will take action in regards to any future or ongoing contravention, which can include penalty infringement notices, and civil pecuniary penalties."
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Underquoting estate agent blitz launched by NSW Fair Trading

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Over the coming months, rental rates could begin to fall on an annual basis due to new supply in the market, going by the latest release of the monthly CoreLogic RP Data Rent Review results for February.
“With construction activity set to peak over the next 24 months, and with many new properties still to settle, there is a real possibility that rental rates will fall over the coming months," said research analyst Cameron Kusher.
“Based on our expectations, landlords have little scope to lift rental rates while for renters, it potentially means more surety in securing accommodation and the potential to upgrade into a higher level of accommodation for a similar cost.”
He said the cause of the current slowdown in rental growth was falling wages, excess rental supply in certain areas and lower rates of population growth and population mobility which was hurting demand for rental accommodation.
Here are the February findings:
Capital city rental rates continue to record no change over the year
Weekly rents across the combined capital city measure increased 0.3% in February, however, rents were unchanged over the past 12 months 
Rental rates have increased over the year in Sydney (+1.5%), Melbourne (+2.2%) and Canberra (+1.6%) and are unchanged in Hobart.
Rents have fallen over the year in Brisbane (-0.7%), Adelaide (-0.4%), Perth (-8.4%) and Darwin (-13.3%).
Currently, combined capital city rental rates are $488/week for houses and $467/week for units.
CoreLogic RP Data analysis shows rents across the combined capitals rose by 0.3% in February 2016. Rental rates increased over the month in all capital cities except for Perth and Darwin.
Results Summary:
Dwelling rental rates across the combined capital cities have not moved and continue to sit at now $485 per week for the past year; at the same time last year rental rates had increased by 1.7% highlighting that the slowdown in rental conditions has been quite sharp over the year.
Rental rates in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin are currently experiencing some of their largest annual falls on record.
All capital cities are experiencing annual rental changes which are well below their decade average levels.
 
<a href="/images/2016/03/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-07%20at%203.26.45%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-07%20at%203.26.45%20PM.png" alt="">
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Rental growth rates continue to show their weakest performance since 1996: CoreLogic RP Data

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GUEST OBSERVER
Sydney loves to talk about food, and the housing market. But rarely do we talk about the threat that housing poses to the resilience of Sydney’s food system.
If we continue along the path we’re on, Sydney stands to lose more than 90% of its current fresh vegetable production. Total food production could drop by 60% and the city’s supply of food from within the basin could drop from 20% of total food demand to a mere 6%.
Like most Australian cities, Sydney is facing an influx of people – 1.6 million new residents are expected over the next 15 years.
Competing priorities for land are compounded by this growing population, as well as by planning laws that favour development over agriculture – not to mention a changing climate. Cities worldwide are facing the same issues as we try to feed a growing population with limited resources. 
<h2>Protecting farmers</h2>
Sydney’s fertile soils are being paved over at a rapid rate. Large portions of areas that currently grow Sydney’s fresh produce are earmarked for release for housing development.
Currently, the planning system does not prioritise agriculture as a land use, meaning urban sprawl into potential farmland continues relatively unchecked. Instead, planning tends to focus on whichever use has the greatest economic value.
In an overheated housing market such as Sydney’s, this tends to mean agricultural land is allowed to be rezoned for houses or other higher-value land uses.
As city land prices rise, more people are moving further out for a “tree change”. Lower land prices on the city’s fringe allow families to purchase large homes and lots at a lower price than in the city.
But many of these new rural residents don’t like the early morning sound of tractors and the smell of manure on neighbouring farms, and make nuisance complaints to their local council. These complaints often result in tough operating restrictions being placed on farmers’ activities, such as limits on hours of operation and types of fertiliser that can be used.
These restrictions are introduced by councils to appease local residents and are in accordance with noise pollution laws designed for urban residential areas. But they can have significant impacts on farm viability. In several instances, such restrictions have pushed marginal farms into the red, eventually forcing farmers off their land and out of the basin.
The New South Wales government is interested in taking steps to ameliorate this problem, as demonstrated through its recently tabled Right to Farm policy. This seeks to ensure that farmers’ right to operate their business is protected against nuisance complaints.
<h2>Why growing food in Sydney is important</h2>
There are enormous benefits to growing fresh food in the Sydney basin – and, indeed, near any city. Perishable foods such as Asian greens and eggs can be grown close to market, reducing spoilage, waste and food miles, and buffering against spikes in fuel prices.
Agriculture and food processing are labour-intensive, providing significant local job opportunities. In fact, the benefit of Sydney’s agriculture to the economy is estimated at upwards of A$4.5 billion. This includes jobs in storage, processing, transport and retail.
A changing climate will mean many of Australia’s important foodbowls, such as the Murray-Darling Basin, are likely to be more vulnerable to droughts and floods. Sydney’s higher rainfall and fertile soils will become even more suitable for growing food, meaning their importance to Sydney’s food supply will grow.
Farms on the fringes of our city will help buffer the city against the impacts of climate change, by cooling the city and helping wildlife move between habitat.
Food produced in close proximity to the city can also be fertilised by nutrients and organics in urban food waste, garden waste and wastewater. Accounting for these sources, Sydney actually has 15 times more phosphorus supply than agricultural demand. That means local food systems can better buffer against the growing global threat of phosphorus fertiliser scarcity, a threat that could lead to further fertiliser price spikes and supply disruptions.
Sydney’s farms also help buffer the city against disruptions to food supply. For example, if a bushfire or fuel shortage cut transport routes into Sydney, the city would have only two days' stock of fresh produce.
Our research shows that in the face of dramatically increasing population, Sydney stands to lose these benefits.
A similar study in Melbourne found their city’s foodbowl could plummet from meeting 41% of Melburnians' food demand to 20%.
Unlike Melbourne, Sydney is geographically constrained by mountains on one side and ocean on the other, meaning there is nowhere for agricultural production in the basin to go. Our agricultural production is literally being chased to the hills – and this at a time when we face the challenge of feeding over a million extra mouths.
We’ve mapped Sydney’s current and future food production. The pink areas of the images below are areas where food is produced. As the maps indicate, the areas producing food in 2031 will dramatically decrease if we continue along the path we’re on.
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112641/area14mp/image-20160223-29156-w73069.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112641/width668/image-20160223-29156-w73069.png" alt=""></a></h4>
<h4>
Sydney’s peri-urban farms produce 20% of the city’s food supply. Institute for Sustainable Futures UTS, Author provided  
</h4>
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112643/area14mp/image-20160223-16416-sbgwc5.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112643/width668/image-20160223-16416-sbgwc5.png" alt=""></a></h4>
<h4>
If we allowed unchecked urban sprawl, Sydney’s farms might produce only 6% of the city’s food supply. Institute for Sustainable Futures UTS, Author provided 
</h4>
<h2>A better food future</h2>
Our city plans need to value and better protect agriculture from urban sprawl. Planners need to make decisions based on evidence to balance competing land uses.
These decisions need to take account of the full suite of values and benefits we gain from Sydney farmers, not just the economic gains we stand to achieve by converting the land to houses.
Farmers in the basin need better commercial conditions, a fair price for commodities, land security and support from other residents.
Sydneysiders need access to affordable housing, jobs and infrastructure.
But, equally, they need access to nutritious and affordable food, reversing the high rate of obesity and diabetes, and “food deserts” without access to groceries particularly prevalent in Western Sydney.
Through increased awareness and accessibility, food shoppers can also support local food producers, increasing the resilience of Sydney’s food system and simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of food.
However, strategic policies and plans are needed to ensure that agriculture is valued and prioritised as an important land use and economic activity 
 
Dana Cordell<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dana-cordell-1041" rel="author"></a> is research principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dana-cordell-1041" target="_blank">here</a>.
Brent Jacobs is research director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brent-jacobs-231004" target="_blank">here</a>.
Laura Wynne is senior research consultant, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-wynne-97854" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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Sydney's property development threatening foodbowl

An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Jonathan Chancellor

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