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GUEST OBSERVER
With debate raging over who wins and who loses with proposed major changes to negative gearing, attention also falls on which Australian suburbs are most likely to suffer.
The Australian Financial Review recently discussed the “Top 10 suburbs set to suffer under negative gearing plan”. The Australian soon joined this scare campaign. Mandurah in Western Australia, where I spent a recent weekend, is on the AFR’s list.
When I grew up this was a lazy holiday town at the entry to an inlet. It’s now one of Australia’s fastest-growing suburbs with a 50-minute train connection to central Perth. Within walking distance of the town centre is a cluster of relatively recent medium-density mixed-use developments on or near the waterfront. The dolphins and crabs are prolific and opportunities for swimming, boating and kayaking are at everyone’s doorstep.
Unlike most outer suburban developments, the housing is relatively dense – mostly about four to five storeys high, with a couple of blocks up to ten storeys. This is a highly walkable neighbourhood with generous public space. Shops and cafes line much of the ground floor.
<h2>Built density but lacking intensity</h2>
This is not far from the kind of urban development we need a lot more of in Australian cities – places that encourage people to walk to work, shopping and recreation; where densities are high enough to support a good range of shopping and public transport.
The main problem here is that while the built density is relatively high, the population density is less than your average suburb.
The AFR article suggests this is the kind of place that is “set to suffer”, yet these parts of Mandurah already suffer from an occupancy rate that locals estimate at 20%. The empty housing has had a spillover effect into empty shops and offices, empty streets and parks, and poor public transport.
The public space is bereft of vitality (and the safety that comes with it); beaches, parks and walkways are largely empty even on a warm February weekend. While there is lots of built density, there is little intensity of public life. The streets are lined with empty shops used as billboards for real estate and financial services.
<div class="enlarge_hint">While much of this is holiday housing, it is within commuting distance of a major city. How much of it is going to waste simply because those who own it can profit from making a loss under the current negative-gearing rules?</div>
<h2>Bringing empty housing onto the market</h2>
While curbing negative gearing would ease house prices in the short term, in the longer term suburbs like this are set to benefit because it will surely bring much of this empty housing onto the market. Then the synergies of higher-density mixed-use development within reach of good public transport will begin to come into play.
As more residents live within walking distance, more amenities will become viable. The more people walk or cycle, the better the health and transport outcomes.
Ultimately, this is the kind of vibrant walkable city we need to build more of to achieve serious reductions in CO2 emissions – places where we can live great and healthy lives with less reliance on cars.
It is impossible to say how much this production of empty architecture is a function of negative gearing since it also goes hand-in-hand with neoliberal markets and high disparities of wealth. However, the curbing of negative gearing will have a significant impact in getting empty housing onto the market.
This in turn could go some way to reversing this cycle of emptiness – bringing life to the shops, offices, streets, parks and public transport.
<h2>‘Positive gearing’ across Australia</h2>
This is not just a benefit to places like inner Mandurah. It also applies to other empty suburbs and even high-density inner-city neighbourhoods. Southbank and Docklands in Melbourne come to mind as places that produce largely empty buildings – density without intensity.
Negative gearing produces an underutilisation of urban space. The imperative to curb it has important implications for the future of Australian cities.
And this raises a further question – why stop there? If we are looking for new tax revenues that will help to balance the budget, curb CO2 emissions and increase the productivity and vitality of cities, then why not tax the underuse of urban space? Perhaps we could call it “positive gearing”.
Kim Dovey is professor, Architecture and Urban Design, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-dovey-107660" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

How negative-gearing changes can bring life back to eerily quiet suburbs

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GUEST OBSERVER
After Labor announced proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told parliament that the policy would administer two contradictory shocks, massive shocks, to the residential housing market. 
They are proposing to remove from the market for established dwellings one-third of demand. All investors would be gone. When I say all investors, I mean all investors.
That assertion was questioned by some listeners at the time, including The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy.
Does the prime minister’s claim stack up?
<h2>Not all property investors negatively gear</h2>
Data is not directly available on what proportion of home purchases are made by investors. Data on new home lending from The Australian Bureau of Statistics' Lending Finance figures indicates that between one-third and half of new lending is to investors. And ABS census data shows that just under a third of existing properties are owned by investors.
But not all of them negatively gear. Some do not borrow, and others do not borrow enough to be negatively geared: that is, their rental income is greater than the expenses and loan interest. The tax stats show us that about two-thirds of all housing investors are negatively geared. This suggests that around 20% of housing buyers are negatively geared investors.
<h2>Investor demand for housing will reduce – but not disappear</h2>
Labor’s proposed changes will reduce the after-tax returns on property investment.
Although negative gearing has attracted more attention, Labor’s proposed changes to capital gains tax will have a bigger impact on returns. Reducing the discount from 50% to 25% will increase the effective tax rates on capital gains, bringing the tax rates closer to those that apply to other sources of investment income such as rental income and bank interest.
Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing will also have an impact. Under the policy, investors who make rental losses – because their rental income is less than their costs, including loan interest costs – will no longer be able to write-off those losses against wage and salary income. But for people investing in new housing there will be no change: they will still able to write-off losses against all forms of individual income.
For most investors in existing properties, the changes to negative gearing mainly affect the timing, not the amount, of tax deductions. Losses can still be deducted against investment income, including subsequent capital gains. But negative gearing may lose some of its psychological appeal. While there is no hard research for Australia, some investment advisors have warned against placing too much emphasis on tax breaks (particularly tax breaks on wages) and not enough on the financial returns to the investment.
Together these policies will reduce investor demand for housing. Indeed, one of Labor’s stated aims of the policy is to make it easier for first home buyers to get into the market.
Some investors will switch to other investment opportunities that offer higher post-tax returns. Others might choose to spend more and invest less. But some will also continue to invest in the housing market, and either borrow less, or simply accept a lower return on investment.
The extent to which investors will vacate the property market will ultimately depend on how much post-tax returns fall, and how sensitive is investor demand for property to changes in returns (what economists would call the “elasticity of demand”).
Our estimates suggest that the changes in effective tax rates from Labor’s policy are relatively modest.
Consider an investor in the top tax bracket, paying 45 cents in the dollar on their marginal income and earning a 6% nominal return on their property (half from rental income, half from capital gain). Let’s say the investor buys a property and then sells it after seven years.
Effective tax rates calculate how much tax is paid on the profit made by the taxpayer. If the investor buys the property outright, the effective tax rate will increase from 33% to 35% under Labor’s policy. If the same investor borrows 40% of the house value then effective tax rates increase from 19% to 22%. And for a negatively geared investor borrowing 80% of the property value, the effective tax rate changes from 5% to 9%.
<a href="/images/2016/03/9/image-20160307-30467-5ajcud.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/9/image-20160307-30467-5ajcud.JPG" alt="">
 
And any changes in post-tax returns under Labor’s policies may be swamped by annual fluctuations in property prices. As the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Chief Executive Ian Narev recently noted:
I can tell you having a $400 billion home loan book – your assumptions on unemployment and what’s happening in global interest rates will dwarf whatever assumptions you’ve got on the modelling about the impact of negative gearing by a factor of… I can’t tell you the number but it’s a big number.
<h2>A massive shock?</h2>
Under Labor’s policy, other passive investments that generate capital gains, such as shares, will also be subject to a more stringent tax treatment. Other investments that will be relatively more attractive after the change – for example, superannuation and bank deposits – have a very different profile of risk, return and liquidity.
No-one can ever perfectly predict investor behaviour. Ultimately, there are a whole host of factors that people take into account when investing in property, including rental returns (particularly for the one third of positively geared investors), risk perception, familiarity with the asset class and ability to obtain bank finance. In our opinion, modest changes in tax treatment are unlikely to change the decision-making calculus for the majority of investors.
Indeed, looking at other countries with less generous tax treatment for investment properties – US, Canada, Germany and France, for example – there is still plenty of investor activity in housing.
Given the evidence we have seen, it is overreach for the prime minister to say that Labor’s policy will drive away all investors away.
Danielle Wood is fellow, Australian Perspectives, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710" target="_blank">here</a>.
John Daley is chief executive officer, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Negative gearing changes won't mean all investors depart market

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The stunning success of the land release of rural residential lots on Bowral's historic Retford Park estate, has ensured the longtime home of James Fairfax can be preserved in perpetuity for community access.
Some 71 of the 79 lots offered since the November launch have been snapped, with the upcoming lots priced between $365,000 and $810,000 through Nigel Napoli of <a href="https://retfordparkestate.com" target="_blank">Savills Residential Projects.</a>
The housing lots of Retford Park Estate sits either side of historic Retford Park house, the home of James Fairfax, the former chairman of the now ailing publishing company that bears his family name.
Buyers have come looking for a tree-change, especially from the Illawarra region and Sutherland Shire, Nigel Napoli said.
With land sizes from 1000 sqm to 4.8 hectares, there are set be another 81 building block released over the next six months on the outskirts of Bowral.
The 1880s Italianate residence that is well hidden amid the extensive gardens was bought by James Fairfax in 1964 for £15,000.
James Fairfax set about decorating Retford Park House with advice from designer Leslie Walford with the garden undertaken by English landscape architect John Codrington.
The pool, pool pavilion and aviaries were designed by Melbourne architect Guilford Bell. Over the years, architect Espie Dods added architecturally sympathetic extensions to the home. 
The Retford Park homestead will be preserved in perpetuity for the community with some funds from the neighbouring residential development being directed into a trust which will pay for the long-term upkeep of the home and gardens, the project director Allen Robinson advised.
Philanthropic James Fairfax had envisaged the concept for the past four decades.
"I think Retford Park is an important part of the heritage of the Wingecarribee Shire area and provision has been made in my will for the house and the immediate surrounding land, including the garden, to be left in trust to be viewed by future generations," Mr Fairfax told me in 2009. 
Listed on the register of the national estate since 1980, Retford Park was built as a summer retreat for the Hordern retailing family. It takes its name from the village in Nottinghamshire, the northern England town from where Anthony and Ann Hordern immigrated in 1825.
The grounds have many heritage oaks, an enduring association with the Hordern's retailing business, whose emblem was an oak tree under which were the words "While I live, I'll grow".
<a href="https://sydneyaerialphotography.com" target="_blank">Photo credits go to Tim Mooney</a>.
 
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Retford Park rural residential lots underpinning the Bowral heritage estate's future

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Almost everyday there's a new contradictory report backed up with data and opinion on Sydney's anticipated price direction. Who to believe? The spoiler or spruiker? What to do with your life?
The likelihood is no-one really knows, especially given the negative gearing doubt, but owner occupiers should thoughtfully proceed with caution in this low interest rate environment, while investors will continue t weight up their chase for yield without emotion.
Estate agent John McGrath recently advised that at the end of housing booms, buyers can get a bit obsessed with timing.
"They often hold off believing (or rather, hoping) prices will fall and this delays their purchase," he said, suggesting it comes at a potential cost.
He says after being in the game for 32 years that buying the best property you can afford, when you can afford it; and holding it for the long term is always the best play.
"Believe me, time in the market is much more important than timing the market when you buy," he suggested.
True, but overpay and then sell during the dips Sydney has periodically recorded in recent years, and it's a costly loss. 
Recently $2.62 million secured a Woollahra terrace that sold at $2.7 million in 2007, which provides delicious conversation at the home buyers' house warming.
At Rose Bay, a Harry Seidler-designed penthouse sold last week for around the same $5.6 million price bought it for a decade ago.
The 2/20 Ian Street, Rose Bay apartment sold on Friday ahead of a planned auction through 1st City agents Alexander Gold and Rod Fox.
 
There are plenty of near backward prices undermining another adage that Sydney property doubles every seven years.
The more recent housing cycles have necessarily seen this adage adapted to every 10 years.
But I saw a Macquarie Street, Sydney CBD apartment sell recently at $2 million, having been bought off the plan in 1999 at $1.01 million.
Nationally only 32 percent of homes are currently reselling at double or more than their purchase price, typically owned for 17 years.
Cameron Kusher at CoreLogic RP Data did some research on the decade to January 2016, finding home values across the combined capital cities increased by 72 percent which suggests values aren't doubling over the decade.
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73 percent higher compared to 64 percent increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story.
Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151 percent with house values up 159 percent and unit values 110 percent higher. B
Taking a look at value growth across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results as Melbourne was the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade.
Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra increased by less than 50%. 
But over the 10 years to January 2006, home values more than doubled across every capital.
It all suggests the days of rapid value rises are behind us, or or at least for most of us.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
 
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It's taking longer to double your property price

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<div>
Australia has a serious housing affordability problem, according to Richard Holden, professor of economics at UNSW Australia Business School.
"Since 1997 price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have nearly doubled," he recently wrote in the Australian Financial Review.
"Since 1995, price-to-income ratios have grown 50 per cent more than the OECD average."
He said the undisputed facts were Sydney's price to income ratio of 12.2 makes it the second least affordable city in the world, behind Hong Kong. Melbourne ranks fourth.
"It turns out that London and San Francisco are cheap by comparison."
</div>
<div>In June 2015 he wrote a report for the McKell Institute called Switching Gears, which suggested that certain changes to negative gearing could have a positive impact on housing affordability, the federal budget, job creation and growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The ALP last week announced a policy that essentially adopts this recommendation." </div>
<div> </div>
<div>He said it respected existing investment arrangements and provided a smooth transition away from negative gearing of existing dwellings, rather than an abrupt disruption that would come from either capping or eliminating it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Modifying negative gearing along the lines of my McKell plan is the market-based, incentive-driven approach to solving our housing affordability problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It addresses the skewed tax incentives in the current regime, and it uses the power of markets to tackle the housing affordability problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Perhaps that is why is has been met with general approval from economists like Saul Eslake and Warwick McKibbin, former politicians like Jeff Kennett, and business leaders like Jillian Broadbent."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When I wrote the report I imagined that a pro-market, pro-incentive, fiscal conservative like Malcolm Turnbull would smile on the plan.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Instead, it has been welcomed by the Labor Party and Mr Turnbull has booed it," Richard Holden said.</div>
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Malcolm Turnbull should embrace my negative gearing policy: Richard Holden

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Businessman and commentator John Hewson has listed Invergowrie, the Tudor-style Exeter estate, this time for April 16 auction.
Built in the 1930s for the BHP industrialist Sir Cecil Hoskins, the seven bedroom house comes with library, ballroom, studies and billiard room.
The 26 acres grounds have Paul Sorensen gardens with tennis court, bocce pit, swimming pool, croquet lawn, orchard, vegetable gardens, a Japanese garden with waterfall, aviary and three guest houses.
Designed by architect Geoffrey Loveridge, Invergowie replaced Headlands, which had been owned by the Yates seed family.
Before that the Badgery family had what remains the landmark feature of the village of Exeter.
After several changes of ownership, Invergowrie was bought in the 1960s by the Fieldhouse family who invited Paul Sorenson to return and substantailly reverse his earlier planting; for while the Hoskins preferred to have trees and shrubs around the house leaving the boundaries open, the new owners wanted the main plantings to be on the boundaries.
Title Tattle gleans the main Invergowrie gates were relocated from Sydney in the late 1960s by the Fieldhouse family.
Hewson and his wife, Jessica Wilson have enlisted Michael Maloney at Richardson &amp; Wrench Bowral.
The trophy home sale came with $7.5 million expectations this time last year.
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Invergowrie, Exeter relisted by John Hewson

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A former dilapidated house in Leichhardt transformed into a modern home sold at weekend auction for $2,132,000.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-leichhardt-121889078" target="_blank">The four-bedroom house at 80 Edith Street</a> sold through McGrath Inner West having been listed with a price guide of $1.9 million to $2.05 million.
Agent Danielle Dewhurst said nearly 100 groups had seen the property during the campaign.
When the vendors bought the 278sq m property two years ago, they paid $980,000.
The original timber workers cottage had been vacant for 20 years had its original front facade disassembled and rebuilt to the original dimensions.
There are open-plan interiors that flow out to an entertainment deck with lawn and swimming pool.
Each of the four bedrooms have built-in wardrobes and two have ensuites.
The home, that went out and up, also has a three kilowatt solar system and a 5000L water tank.
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Leichhardt cinderella transformed into $2 million onsale

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Estate agents have been told an underquoting audit program will be conducted by NSW Fair Trading commencing today, Monday 7 March lasting for two weeks.
The program will target agents in both Sydney metropolitan and regional locations.
The inspectors will be looking at published advertisements and the Estimated Selling Price contained within agency agreements.  
They will also review and consider the evidence utilised in developing the estimated selling price.
The department has viewed the industry as coping well with the new laws and overall compliance. 
But in the first seven weeks since the laws were introduced on the 1 January 2016, Fair Trading received 68 complaints relating to underquoting. 
"Complaints are from named individuals, anonymous complainants and other real estate agents," a department spokesperson said.
To coincide with the new underquoting laws starting, Fair Trading ran a public awareness campaign to raise awareness and understanding among NSW real estate agents and consumers seeking to buy and sell residential property in NSW.
The campaign advertisements were run throughout January 2016 directing people to underquoting information on the Fair Trading website.
Fair Trading’s online display advertising delivered almost 1 million impressions.
A Facebook campaign was run concurrently with the digital advertising and generated more than 685,000 impressions. 
Fair Trading has information tailored specifically to support agents specifically, a publication was produced – <a href="https://fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/biz_res/ftweb/pdfs/About_us/Publications/Underquoting_guidelines_for_residential_property.pdf" target="_blank">Underquoting guidelines for residential property</a>, including a checklist to help agents with their obligations.  
Also, the mandatory fact sheet, which agents need to supply to sellers when entering into an agency agreement to sell their home, was updated to refer to the new underquoting laws. 
Fair Trading has conducted 119 agent education lessons following a review of more than 5000 advertisements. 
Fair Trading also issued two trader education letters for failing to comply with an undertaking to update advertisements. 
"Fair Trading will take action in regards to any future or ongoing contravention, which can include penalty infringement notices, and civil pecuniary penalties."
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Underquoting estate agent blitz launched by NSW Fair Trading

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Over the coming months, rental rates could begin to fall on an annual basis due to new supply in the market, going by the latest release of the monthly CoreLogic RP Data Rent Review results for February.
“With construction activity set to peak over the next 24 months, and with many new properties still to settle, there is a real possibility that rental rates will fall over the coming months," said research analyst Cameron Kusher.
“Based on our expectations, landlords have little scope to lift rental rates while for renters, it potentially means more surety in securing accommodation and the potential to upgrade into a higher level of accommodation for a similar cost.”
He said the cause of the current slowdown in rental growth was falling wages, excess rental supply in certain areas and lower rates of population growth and population mobility which was hurting demand for rental accommodation.
Here are the February findings:
Capital city rental rates continue to record no change over the year
Weekly rents across the combined capital city measure increased 0.3% in February, however, rents were unchanged over the past 12 months 
Rental rates have increased over the year in Sydney (+1.5%), Melbourne (+2.2%) and Canberra (+1.6%) and are unchanged in Hobart.
Rents have fallen over the year in Brisbane (-0.7%), Adelaide (-0.4%), Perth (-8.4%) and Darwin (-13.3%).
Currently, combined capital city rental rates are $488/week for houses and $467/week for units.
CoreLogic RP Data analysis shows rents across the combined capitals rose by 0.3% in February 2016. Rental rates increased over the month in all capital cities except for Perth and Darwin.
Results Summary:
Dwelling rental rates across the combined capital cities have not moved and continue to sit at now $485 per week for the past year; at the same time last year rental rates had increased by 1.7% highlighting that the slowdown in rental conditions has been quite sharp over the year.
Rental rates in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin are currently experiencing some of their largest annual falls on record.
All capital cities are experiencing annual rental changes which are well below their decade average levels.
 
<a href="/images/2016/03/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-07%20at%203.26.45%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/7/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-07%20at%203.26.45%20PM.png" alt="">
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Rental growth rates continue to show their weakest performance since 1996: CoreLogic RP Data

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GUEST OBSERVER
Sydney loves to talk about food, and the housing market. But rarely do we talk about the threat that housing poses to the resilience of Sydney’s food system.
If we continue along the path we’re on, Sydney stands to lose more than 90% of its current fresh vegetable production. Total food production could drop by 60% and the city’s supply of food from within the basin could drop from 20% of total food demand to a mere 6%.
Like most Australian cities, Sydney is facing an influx of people – 1.6 million new residents are expected over the next 15 years.
Competing priorities for land are compounded by this growing population, as well as by planning laws that favour development over agriculture – not to mention a changing climate. Cities worldwide are facing the same issues as we try to feed a growing population with limited resources. 
<h2>Protecting farmers</h2>
Sydney’s fertile soils are being paved over at a rapid rate. Large portions of areas that currently grow Sydney’s fresh produce are earmarked for release for housing development.
Currently, the planning system does not prioritise agriculture as a land use, meaning urban sprawl into potential farmland continues relatively unchecked. Instead, planning tends to focus on whichever use has the greatest economic value.
In an overheated housing market such as Sydney’s, this tends to mean agricultural land is allowed to be rezoned for houses or other higher-value land uses.
As city land prices rise, more people are moving further out for a “tree change”. Lower land prices on the city’s fringe allow families to purchase large homes and lots at a lower price than in the city.
But many of these new rural residents don’t like the early morning sound of tractors and the smell of manure on neighbouring farms, and make nuisance complaints to their local council. These complaints often result in tough operating restrictions being placed on farmers’ activities, such as limits on hours of operation and types of fertiliser that can be used.
These restrictions are introduced by councils to appease local residents and are in accordance with noise pollution laws designed for urban residential areas. But they can have significant impacts on farm viability. In several instances, such restrictions have pushed marginal farms into the red, eventually forcing farmers off their land and out of the basin.
The New South Wales government is interested in taking steps to ameliorate this problem, as demonstrated through its recently tabled Right to Farm policy. This seeks to ensure that farmers’ right to operate their business is protected against nuisance complaints.
<h2>Why growing food in Sydney is important</h2>
There are enormous benefits to growing fresh food in the Sydney basin – and, indeed, near any city. Perishable foods such as Asian greens and eggs can be grown close to market, reducing spoilage, waste and food miles, and buffering against spikes in fuel prices.
Agriculture and food processing are labour-intensive, providing significant local job opportunities. In fact, the benefit of Sydney’s agriculture to the economy is estimated at upwards of A$4.5 billion. This includes jobs in storage, processing, transport and retail.
A changing climate will mean many of Australia’s important foodbowls, such as the Murray-Darling Basin, are likely to be more vulnerable to droughts and floods. Sydney’s higher rainfall and fertile soils will become even more suitable for growing food, meaning their importance to Sydney’s food supply will grow.
Farms on the fringes of our city will help buffer the city against the impacts of climate change, by cooling the city and helping wildlife move between habitat.
Food produced in close proximity to the city can also be fertilised by nutrients and organics in urban food waste, garden waste and wastewater. Accounting for these sources, Sydney actually has 15 times more phosphorus supply than agricultural demand. That means local food systems can better buffer against the growing global threat of phosphorus fertiliser scarcity, a threat that could lead to further fertiliser price spikes and supply disruptions.
Sydney’s farms also help buffer the city against disruptions to food supply. For example, if a bushfire or fuel shortage cut transport routes into Sydney, the city would have only two days' stock of fresh produce.
Our research shows that in the face of dramatically increasing population, Sydney stands to lose these benefits.
A similar study in Melbourne found their city’s foodbowl could plummet from meeting 41% of Melburnians' food demand to 20%.
Unlike Melbourne, Sydney is geographically constrained by mountains on one side and ocean on the other, meaning there is nowhere for agricultural production in the basin to go. Our agricultural production is literally being chased to the hills – and this at a time when we face the challenge of feeding over a million extra mouths.
We’ve mapped Sydney’s current and future food production. The pink areas of the images below are areas where food is produced. As the maps indicate, the areas producing food in 2031 will dramatically decrease if we continue along the path we’re on.
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112641/area14mp/image-20160223-29156-w73069.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112641/width668/image-20160223-29156-w73069.png" alt=""></a></h4>
<h4>
Sydney’s peri-urban farms produce 20% of the city’s food supply. Institute for Sustainable Futures UTS, Author provided  
</h4>
<h4><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112643/area14mp/image-20160223-16416-sbgwc5.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/112643/width668/image-20160223-16416-sbgwc5.png" alt=""></a></h4>
<h4>
If we allowed unchecked urban sprawl, Sydney’s farms might produce only 6% of the city’s food supply. Institute for Sustainable Futures UTS, Author provided 
</h4>
<h2>A better food future</h2>
Our city plans need to value and better protect agriculture from urban sprawl. Planners need to make decisions based on evidence to balance competing land uses.
These decisions need to take account of the full suite of values and benefits we gain from Sydney farmers, not just the economic gains we stand to achieve by converting the land to houses.
Farmers in the basin need better commercial conditions, a fair price for commodities, land security and support from other residents.
Sydneysiders need access to affordable housing, jobs and infrastructure.
But, equally, they need access to nutritious and affordable food, reversing the high rate of obesity and diabetes, and “food deserts” without access to groceries particularly prevalent in Western Sydney.
Through increased awareness and accessibility, food shoppers can also support local food producers, increasing the resilience of Sydney’s food system and simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of food.
However, strategic policies and plans are needed to ensure that agriculture is valued and prioritised as an important land use and economic activity 
 
Dana Cordell<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dana-cordell-1041" rel="author"></a> is research principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dana-cordell-1041" target="_blank">here</a>.
Brent Jacobs is research director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brent-jacobs-231004" target="_blank">here</a>.
Laura Wynne is senior research consultant, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-wynne-97854" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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Sydney's property development threatening foodbowl

Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.

But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.

Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.

In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.

That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.

The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.

Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.

Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.

Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.

"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.

"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.

"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."

Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.

Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.

"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.

"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.

"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."

For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.

Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?

As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.

Joel Robinson

What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

A who's who of Australian surfing, business and entertainment has emerged on title records following the completion of Esprit Rainbow Bay, the latest boutique beachfront apartment development by former professional surfer Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects.

The completed project has attracted an enviable collection of owners, many with long-standing ties to the southern Gold Coast and the surf culture that has helped define Rainbow Bay and neighbouring Kirra for generations.

Given Gedoun's own background in surfing, it perhaps comes as little surprise that some of Australia's most recognisable surfers have chosen to buy into the development overlooking one of the country's most celebrated stretches of coastline.

Pezet Matheson directors Jayde Pezet and Todd Matheson launched the project in late 2021, and have managed the sales campaign all the way through to its sell-out and recent completion.

<img alt="Esprit" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="08fc6261-b84e-4b09-8a44-66d3067fd0d1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-29%20at%208.51.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4AOcb6ETZwNUnMPdTtz1B3pZAIB_jgZ2" />

Former world champion Mick Fanning, who grew up in Coolangatta, secured an apartment in 2023. He paid&nbsp;$2.07 million. Last year he sold his Bilinga home for over $16 million.

Three-time world champion Joel Parkinson also purchased in the development, alongside big wave surfer Mark Mathews. Mathews bought the most expensive apartment in the building, spending just over $4 million.

Joining them is Rip Curl founder Doug Warbrick, whose company helped shape Australia's global surfing industry over the past five decades.

The appeal of Rainbow Bay has extended well beyond the surfing community.

International DJ Paul Fisher purchased an apartment through his investment vehicle, YLB Developments, an abbreviation of his trademark phrase "You Little Beauty".

The purchase comes as Fisher and his wife Chloe are developing their own luxury apartment project further north in Palm Beach. Their boutique beachfront development, Pescado, comprises just seven apartments on Jefferson Lane, which start from just shy of $6 million. The couple intend to retain the two-level penthouse as their Australian base between international touring commitments.

Melbourne Storm coach Craig Bellamy and his wife Wendy have also invested in Esprit, purchasing two apartments after spending decades holidaying on the southern Gold Coast. They also have a luxury apartment in Joe Adsett's Rockpool, less than 400m away from Esprit.

<h2>Boutique project draws owner-occupiers</h2>

Esprit launched in 2021 and sold strongly, with buyers drawn to its boutique scale, beachfront position and contemporary design.

The completed development comprises 94 apartments across 11 levels, offering expansive floorplans designed primarily for owner-occupiers rather than the investor market.

Crowning the building is Club Esprit, pitched as being the Gold Coast's first residential rooftop wellness centre. The roof features a&nbsp;25 metre magnesium lap pool, which is surrounded by wet daybeds and poolside cabanas,&nbsp;multiple barbecue areas,&nbsp;a yoga and relaxation play lawn, and a private dining room with a kitchen scullery, bar, lounges, and an outdoor terrace.

The wellness centre is&nbsp;fully equipped with a Technogym, ice bath, infra-red sauna, steam room, thermal room, and treatment room. The roof has views spanning&nbsp;Rainbow Bay, Snapper Rocks and the Pacific Ocean.

<h2>S&amp;S Projects continues to shape Rainbow Bay</h2>

S&amp;S Projects founder Paul Gedoun has become one of the key figures behind Rainbow Bay's evolution over the past several years.

After establishing S&amp;S Projects, Gedoun has focused on delivering lifestyle-driven apartment developments designed primarily for owner-occupiers seeking a permanent coastal home.

Esprit is Gedoun's third completed project in Rainbow Bay, following Flow and Awaken, both of which achieved record prices for the suburb.

He is now delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, a 38-apartment development on Boundary Street that is currently selling, and has no plans to leave the precinct anytime soon. S&amp;S Projects has also lodged plans for its fifth Rainbow Bay development, an 88-apartment project on Boundary Street featuring a strong wellness focus.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">First look: S&amp;S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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Who's who of buyers revealed as Esprit Rainbow Bay settles

Apartment buildings are increasingly being designed around how people actually live day to day, not just how they want a building to look.

For buyers, that shift is showing up in practical inclusions that respond to changing habits. Work-from-home spaces, EV charging, wellness amenities, secure bike storage and parcel management are becoming part of the broader apartment conversation, reflecting a move toward buildings that reduce friction in everyday life.

Online shopping has become one of the clearest examples of that change.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion online in 2025, with nearly one in four retail dollars now spent online. That has made parcel delivery a regular part of apartment living, rather than an occasional inconvenience.

For apartment residents, however, the delivery process can be less straightforward than it is for detached homes. Parcels may be left in lobbies, redirected to Post Offices, missed entirely, or placed under the responsibility of building managers and concierge teams.

That is why secure parcel infrastructure is increasingly being considered alongside more familiar apartment amenities.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-VjjLwoViX0?si=A3k7ws9NX35Uac7_" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Australia Post Parcel Lockers offer one way to address the issue. When a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS, then collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN. The parcel is kept secure, accessible and removed from common areas.

The broader Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations across Australia, positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and other accessible locations.

For new apartment projects, the relevance is clear. A building’s amenity offering is no longer only about lifestyle spaces, but also about convenience, security and functionality.

As buyer expectations evolve, secure parcel delivery is becoming part of the same design conversation as flexible working, sustainable transport and resident wellbeing.

It is one less thing for residents to worry about, and another example of apartment design adapting to the way Australians now live.

Apartment design is adapting to the way Australians shop

While school holidays and trips to Europe tend to define the winter property market, there's been no cold snap at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> in North Sydney.

Developer-builder&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a> sold more than $35 million worth of apartments throughout June, including a $6.8 million apartment that now ranks among the highest apartment sales ever recorded in North Sydney.

SRM Residential agent Ben Stewart said buyer demand throughout June reflected a mix of improving market confidence and longer-term thinking from owner-occupiers.

"We're seeing strong demand from owner-occupiers who are taking a longer-term view," Stewart said.

"Many recognise the opportunity to secure an apartment in an iconic building and premium location while values remain attractive. They may initially lease the property, but the intention is to eventually move in themselves, rather than purchasing purely as an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=367129]

Located at 177 Walker Street, The Walden will deliver 161 one, two, three and four-bedroom residences across a 30-storey tower designed by Rothelowman. Every apartment occupies a corner position, maximising natural light, cross ventilation and views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, Sydney Heads and the northern districts.

Rather than a traditional balcony, the residences feature winter gardens that seamlessly extend the open plan living areas, creating versatile spaces for relaxing or entertaining throughout the year. Floor-to-ceiling glazing draws in natural light while showcasing sweeping views from the building's elevated Walker Street position.

Every apartment features high-end Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, and fully integrated appliances.

The larger residences have been planned with distinct entertaining and private zones, with many master suites positioned on corners to capture natural light and harbour views. Walk-in dressing rooms, freestanding baths and refined stone finishes reinforce the house-like feel that has resonated with downsizers and owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6393]

Rothelowman Principal Ben Pomroy said the project was designed to make the most of its unique position overlooking the harbour.

"The Walden is a celebration of all things beautiful, curated for those who expect nothing less than exceptional," Pomroy says.

"Meticulously designed entertaining spaces and light-filled living areas that capitalise on capturing the natural beauty of Sydney's iconic harbour."

Residents will also have exclusive access to The Pavilion, a dedicated amenity building featuring a rooftop pool, wellness studio, gymnasium, sauna, concierge service, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and work-from-home facilities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6402]

The project marks ALAND's first major luxury apartment development in Sydney's inner-city market after more than two decades delivering residential communities across Greater Sydney.

Founder and CEO Andrew Hrsto previously said the rarity of the Walker Street site made it an opportunity the company could not overlook.

"This is a rare opportunity to bring a truly exceptional project to life in one of Sydney's most iconic locations, and to showcase our craftsmanship and design expertise at a world-class level," Hrsto said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6383]

The Walden has been introduced to the market at a time when demand for living in North Sydney is at an all-time high. Billions of dollars have been invested in infrastructure, including the recently opened Victoria Cross Metro station, located just 300 metres from The Walden, providing residents with direct access to the Sydney CBD in just minutes.

Private investment has also transformed the area through the arrival of new retail and dining destinations, elevating the lifestyle offering in what was once considered primarily a commercial precinct rather than an aspirational residential address.

The Walden is currently under construction and is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

ALAND records $35 million in sales in North Sydney as The Walden bucks quiet winter selling season

The long-awaited redevelopment of the former Eastlakes Shopping Centre site has reached a major milestone, with Conquest's plans for a new mixed-use precinct officially placed on public exhibition.

The State Significant Development Application would transform the 1.7-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/19a-evans-avenue-eastlakes-nsw-2018">19A Evans Avenue</a> into one of Sydney's largest urban renewal projects, delivering 736 apartments above a new shopping centre anchored by Woolworths, alongside specialty retail, dining, commercial space and new public open spaces.

The public exhibition marks the next chapter for the project after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/conquest">Conquest</a> acquired the stalled Stage Two development from Crown Group, who completed the first stage across the road prior to their voluntary liquidation.

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fca22c5-d1ed-4e2c-8801-03f7df1eafc8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland%20podium.png?VersionId=uomwr41nF8CmLUZRDcu3mHQechlbxucS" />

&nbsp;

Designed by DKO Architecture, the proposal comprises four residential buildings ranging from 14 to 18 storeys above a two-level retail podium. The development would deliver 736 apartments, including 74 affordable homes, 215 Build-to-Rent apartments and 521 market residences. Provision has also been made for dual-key apartments, which could increase the total number of dwellings to 877.

At ground level, the shopping centre has been designed as the suburb's new meeting place, anchored by a full-line Woolworths and complemented by a curated mix of fresh food retailers, cafés, restaurants, health services and everyday convenience shopping. Generous pedestrian links and landscaped public spaces will connect the retail precinct through to Jack Mundey Reserve, creating a more walkable and connected neighbourhood.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

"Eastlakes has been overlooked for too long, and this is the community’s moment. We are building a shopping centre and homes, a genuine heart for the suburb, and we genuinely want locals to help shape it."

"We enrich communities through the creation of homes, places, and experiences designed for life, built to last, and owner for generations. That starts with listening, so we warmly encourage everyone with a connection to Eastlakes to view the plans and share their thoughts."

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="22f6fb20-54fb-4bd7-8a92-48fafdd00608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland.png?VersionId=cugp7s9hrMHGJJdYzkeAkrFoQgnF4GXf" />

DKO said the design had been shaped by the site's landscape setting and surrounding open space.

"Our vision for the site embraces its unique Bidjigal identity by blending the residential living with generous landscaping and a material palette inspired by the Bidjigal locality, and celebrating the panoramic views to Botany Bay and the wetlands reserves."

"Taking cues from Country, we seek to harmonise built form with the landscape and lightly touch the earth. By reconnecting, retaining and regenerating existing ecology, and weaving in natural elements, we can deepen our connection to Country."

The landscape strategy extends across the podium and rooftops, incorporating communal gardens, children's play areas, lawns, community gardens, family gathering spaces and extensive tree planting. New landscaped links will also strengthen the connection between the precinct and Jack Mundey Reserve, while publicly accessible open spaces have been integrated throughout the development.

The proposal builds on Conquest's broader placemaking strategy for the site. Through an ongoing partnership, local artist Joe Rashbrook has been appointed Urban Art Curator, working alongside young residents to transform the project's site hoardings into a public art gallery that allows the community to engage with the redevelopment before construction is complete.

Conquest has rapidly expanded its development pipeline since acquiring the Eastlakes site, with more than $6 billion worth of mixed-use projects now in planning across Sydney, including Stanmore, Castlecrag and Waterloo.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

Jonathan Chancellor

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