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GUEST OBSERVER
Bond yields are an important tool for making inferences about monetary policy. A yield curve is made by plotting the interest rates of bonds against their maturity dates. A normal yield curve occurs when long-term rates are higher than short- term rates. 
This is important for an economy’s liquidity, as banks can make a profit by borrowing at the (lower) short-term rates and lending at (higher) long-term rates.
Figure 1 shows the current yield curve on Australian Treasury bonds with maturities between 90 days and 10 years. Parts of the yield curve are inverted, meaning short-term rates (90 days) are higher than some long-term rates (2, 3 and 5 years). This creates a disincentive for banks to lend and if the entire curve is inverted, it can lead to a “credit crunch”. This happened in the US during the global financial crisis, when money suddenly dried up because banks could no longer profit from lending out money.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.25.52%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.25.52%20PM.png" alt="">
To avoid a credit crunch, either long-term rates need to rise, or short-term rates need to fall. The first option is tied to investor expectations, as the yield on 10 year bonds is usually an indicator of peoples’ outlook for the future of the economy. This is hard to change. The relatively easier option is lowering the short-term cash rate, otherwise known as Quantitative Easing.
Figure 2 compares movements in the yield curve (Figure 1) and the RBA’s cash rate target. The blue line shows the difference between 10-year Treasury bonds and 90-day Treasury notes for any given month. If the line is above zero, the yield curve slopes upward, while if it is below zero, the yield curve is fully inverted. The red line shows movements in the cash rate: if it is on zero, the cash rate stayed the same that month, while if it goes up or down, there was a change in the cash rate. Notice that for the whole timeline (Jan 2000 – Jan 2016) interest rate cuts always followed an inversion of the yield curve.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.34.08%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.34.08%20PM.png" alt="">
When the bond yield curve inverts, intervention is often necessary to keep the economy stable and allow banks to keep lending out money. However, cutting interest rates is a blunt tool as it has ripple effects on the economy including increased demand for housing loans, a devaluation in the Aussie dollar, which in turn changes trade balances and so on. With an already highly inflated housing market and worries about a bubble, the RBA is often reluctant to cut the cash rate if it is not absolutely required.
Will interest rates change in then ear future? With a positive yield curve it may seem unlikely there will be another cut. However, the difference between yields on 10-year bonds and short-term debt is at only 0.4 percent and has been falling since the last interest rate cuts in 2015.
Notice that when the bond yield curve is falling, the trend continues until interest rates are cut. It is often dangerous to use historical patterns to predict the future, and other economic factors always need to be considered.
For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The yield curve and the RBA cash rate: Secret Agent Bulletin

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The NSW government will legislation to exempt large commercial property managers, such as Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres, from holding real estate licenses. 
After 15 years debate, the NSW government decided that requirement is little more than red tape.
The government will amend the Property, Stock and Business Agents Act in coming months. 
"These changes are long overdue and form part of the NSW government's real estate reform agenda," Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation, Victor Dominello said. 
"Training for training's sake is a drain on productivity. We must be always be vigilant to ensure that mandatory CPD is fit for purpose."
The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal's 2015 Reforming Licensing in NSW report recommends that large commercial property managers who manage an estimated property value of at least $40 million, or a gross floor area of at least 20,000 square metres, or are managing properties for a related corporate entity should be exempt. 
The Department of Fair Trading rarely receives complaints from large commercial property owners such as Westfield or Stockland about their managers who adhere to legally enforceable commercial contracts, but the cost to managers to obtain licenses is $4 million a year, the Australian Financial Review noted.
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Commercial property managers to be exempt from holding real estate licences in NSW

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Home values across Melbourne have substantially outperformed the regional areas of the state, according to the NAB Residential Property Survey.
While Melbourne home values rose by 11.2 percent over the past twelve months, the next best performing regions across the state were the primarily agricultural regions of Goulburn and Wimmera, where home values increased by 5.6 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.41.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.41.27%20PM.png" alt="">
Melbourne’s strong rate of growth started to show some tentative signs of easing over the final quarter of 2015, with home values slipping 1.9 percent lower. 
At the same time auction clearance rates moderated from the high 80% range down to the mid 60 percent range indicating some rebalancing towards buyers in what has been a strong sellers’ market since mid-2012.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.41.37%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.41.37%20PM.png" alt="">
The supply-demand fundamentals for the Melbourne housing market have not been as supportive as those in Sydney, despite strong population growth, due to relatively stronger construction rates over the years. Nevertheless, the NAB Residential Property Survey shows that foreign demand tends to be particularly strong in Melbourne, which in conjunction with low interest rates – contributing to local borrowing capability – has seen prices grow quite strongly. 
NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to 2% in 2016 (from 11.7% in 2015).
Price momentum is expected to slow, however, as affordability has deteriorated considerably in an environment of little to no real household wage growth. NAB also anticipates an extremely large supply response to record high prices in Melbourne, particularly in the inner city unit/apartment market, which will outpace demand. In combination with a more subdued population growth outlook and tighter credit conditions from prudential regulator changes, these factors will weigh on future price growth. 
Nevertheless, improving economic conditions in the state are expected to maintain solid rates of employment that will provide underlying support to house prices, although price growth will be more modest than in recent years. 
The NAB Property Survey reported a notable deterioration in market sentiment during the final quarter of 2015, although the deterioration was not as pronounced as that seen in the other major eastern markets, and Victoria is now the strongest state overall (replacing NSW).
Additionally, respondent expectations for house price growth in the next 12 months roughly halved, despite an increase in rental expectations, while foreign buyer demand for both new and existing properties eased off.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.44.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2012.44.23%20PM.png" alt="">
As a result, NAB has lowered its expectation for house price growth to 2 percent in 2016 (from 11.7 percent in 2015). Given the anticipated ramp up in supply of units/apartments, and uncertainties over foreign and investor demand, prices for this type of housing are expected to fall 3 percent in 2016.
 
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Melbourne house values tipped to increase by two percent, units expected to fall by three percent: NAB

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<h4> </h4>
GUEST OBSERVER
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s recent warnings that house prices would fall steeply under a Labor government confirm the underlying politics of housing policy in Australia. The default position for politicians is to sound concerned about housing affordability, but do nothing.
In a recent paper, we draw on the notion of “policy capture” to understand why politicians and governments appear determined to avoid seemingly obvious solutions to housing problems.
Policy capture theories explain how special interests can have a disproportionate influence on public policy. Their techniques include the construction and provision of information (or “evidence”), problem forming and framing, lobbying, financial donations and direct political action. The vectors of influence include think-tanks, professional lobbyists, “spin doctors” and peak interest groups.
Our analysis applies the lens of policy capture to understand the sorry history of Australian housing policy over the past two decades.
<h2>All talk, little action</h2>
Numerous national and state policy processes have pointed out the need for more affordable housing in Australia since the Productivity Commission reported on home ownership costs in 2003-04.
The National Housing Supply Council (axed in 2013) estimated that Australia needed around 500,000 more affordable homes. But very few government initiatives have directly supported affordable housing supply.
Rather, the response has been to hold inquiries, form taskforces and blame another level of government. State and local planning systems take most of the flak. The withdrawal of Commonwealth funding for social housing – accounting for around 12 percent of new dwellings in the mid-1980s but only around 2 percent today – hardly rates a mention.
<h2>A narrative of ‘artificial barriers’ and planning constraint</h2>
Conservative think-tanks have played a key role in framing a policy narrative that presents planning system barriers as the housing problem. And regulatory reform is presented as the solution.
The Institute of Public Affairs' (IPA) long-running Great Australian Dream Project was launched under the leadership of Bob Day, former head of the Housing Industry Australia and now Family First senator. The IPA campaign focuses squarely on the impact of “regulatory policy” and “artificial” land-supply constraints.
For “evidence”, the IPA cites the work of private consultancy firm Demographia. Its annual housing affordability surveys purport to prove links between planning and high house prices, despite being widely debunked.
Writing the foreword to Demographia’s latest report, Day argues that barriers to home ownership are “the product of restrictions imposed through planning regulation and zoning”. Planning rules have also dragged young women out of the home, he laments" "We cannot deny the rising generation a home of their own merely to satisfy the ideological fantasies of urban planners … We cannot deny ourselves the joys of grandchildren because young women have to work to pay mortgages instead of raising a family."
Providing adequate and well-located land is an important measure of planning systems. Barriers to diverse or affordable housing development must also be dismantled where these are shown to exist.
But the politics of property and planning seems perversely to encourage speculative land development (buying rural, industrial or low-density residential land and agitating for a valuable rezoning), while enabling nervous residents to block proposals for affordable and social housing development.
The Property Council of Australia, along with other development industry “peak groups”, has been vocal in blaming the planning system for affordability pressures. It has staunchly opposed the inclusionary housing measures that predominate in the global cities of the US and Europe but remain nascent in Australia.
Inclusionary planning approaches preserve affordable housing opportunities when land is rezoned or following major public infrastructure investment. These approaches do have many limitations and usually depend on other sources of finance to deliver homes for very low-income groups.
But their strength lies in ensuring that the benefits of public infrastructure investment and urban development are not solely capitalised in house and land values. These gains benefit existing owners at the expense of those trying to find a decent place to live.
In another example of the “revolving doors” phenomenon whereby politicians and senior bureaucrats slide between industry, advocacy and officialdom, Treasurer Scott Morrison’s CV includes six years as the Property Council’s national manager, policy and research. The Property Council is leading the charge against “seismic” changes to negative gearing.
<h2>More houses, but young people still can’t buy a home</h2>
The housing supply crisis, which has been debated for much of the past ten years, appears to have temporarily resolved. New housing starts are at their highest in a decade. But despite the narrative of housing shortage as the reason for high prices, new supply hasn’t made houses more affordable for aspiring first home buyers.
That’s because we’re trapped in a housing system that seems dependent on rising prices (driven by market demand) to stimulate increased supply. It’s a catch 22. When house prices slow, so does housing construction, anticipating a drop-off in demand.
That’s why the scare campaign about negative gearing is so effective. That most economists think Labor’s proposed changes would be benign has been lost in the emotions and fear surrounding this debate.
According to the Property Council, the nation’s economy and our own personal wealth is a fragile “house of cards”, vulnerable to collapse with any shift in the status quo.
<h2>Can we create affordable supply without reducing prices?</h2>
The debates do reflect two enduring policy problems:
<ul>
<li>
how to keep housing construction running when price growth slows or reverses; and
</li>
<li>
how to create affordable housing without lowering prices across the market.
</li>
</ul>
Luckily, there’s a proven way for governments to stabilise housing production, despite market fluctuations and without bringing down existing home prices. That’s to expand, radically, the size of the non-profit/affordable housing sector.
Governments can do so by driving investment towards affordable rental housing and by enabling new housing products. These range from low-cost home ownership schemes to community land trusts and shared equity programs.
These models are well established overseas. Numerous studies have demonstrated their potential significance and viability for Australia. Even the Property Council supports incentives for affordable housing development.
As yet another working party considers the problem of affordable housing, let’s hope its members are listening to the wide range of voices who have long called for real “financing and structural reform”.
Low-income tenants and aspiring homeowners haven’t had much traction in this arena. They have been locked out by the latent political power of the property-owning electorate and the pervasive campaigns run by the development industry.
Despite the tenor of the current debate, real change is on the table. The question is whether those who are the main beneficiaries will continue to enable the charade or whether the politics of housing policy can finally turn.
Nicole Gurran is professor - Urban and Regional Planning , University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-gurran-759" target="_blank">here</a>.
Peter Phibbs is chair of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-phibbs-27130" target="_blank">here</a>. 
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Affordable housing policy and politics

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The fund manager Charlie Aitken and wife Ellie have sold their Darling Point villa over the weekend, some six months after it hit the market.
After the couple swapped agents, it was offered with revised $11 million hopes through Elliot Placks and Richard Carwin of Ray White Double Bay.
They secured around $10.5 million.
The couple haven't done too badly having bought the five bedroom house, now with Thomas Hamel interiors, for $6.95 million in 2008.
The Mediterranean-style property was bought from William Penfold, the last of the family members to head the country's oldest stationery company, WC Penfold.
The <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-darling+point-122094734" target="_blank">Eastbourne Avenue</a> house sits in gardens deigned by Paul Bangay.
Quite a few other prestige properties came up for sale in Darling Point, prompting their price revision.
They have two children and have told friends they are looking for something with more lawn and a backyard pool. 
 
The home was <a href="/news/stockbroker-charlie-aitken-selling-darling-point-trophy-home">first listed late September</a>.
 
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Fund manager Charlie Aitken has sold his Darling Point villa

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<div>
<div>The retired politician Joe Hockey has reportedly listed his house in the nation’s capital after becoming Australia’s new ambassador to the United States.</div>
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The three-bedroom home in the prestigious inner suburb of Forrest was bought by the former Treasurer and his wife Melissa Babbage back in March 1997 for just $320,000. It had sold at $375,000 in 1996.
Reportedly the home could sell for easily more than $1 million, according to the Australian Financial Review, although two years ago the Daily Telegraph suggested it was worth $1.5 million, given Forrest is one of the most expensive suburbs in Canberra. The realestate.com.au website price estimate suggests $1.7 million plus.
The unimproved value of Hockey’s property was $1,207,000 as of 2015-2016, according to Allhomes, based on a 1350-square-metre block.
The 1930s property features nine-foot ceilings on Furneaux Street. The property was reportedly due for auction this weekend through LJH Civic, according to the Rear Window column of the Australian Financial Review, but does not appear on any online websites. It has actually been listed for <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.allhomes.com.au/ah/act/sale-residential/25-furneaux-street-forrest-canberra/1317187186511" target="_blank">April 9 auction</a>.
<a href="https://www.domain.com.au/25-furneaux-street-forrest-act-2603-10319234" target="_blank">It was however also listed for rent</a> recently at $990 a week, down from the initially desired $1100 when it was listed in January. It was marketed as an "original executive home."
In his biography Not Your Average Joe, a former Liberal MP Ross Cameron boasts that Mr Hockey struck a golden deal, spotting the house when driving in Canberra.
Biographer Madonna King writes that the seller wanted “no part in lawyers or agents."
“So Joe, the lawyer, called his father, the real estate agent, who took the owner out for a beer,’’ Ms King writes.
<div id="unruly-publisher-marker__inArticle">“The Hockey’s scored the house for land value. Joe’s father didn’t mention he was a real estate agent, buying the property on behalf of his lawyer son.’’</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Joe Hockey was listed on the purchase documents as owning five per cent, his wife Melissa Babbage 61 per cent and his father Richard Hockey 34 per cent.</div>
<div>
A group of Liberal MPs including Ross Cameron, Bob Baldwin and Brendan Nelson moved and paid rent to stay at the property. 
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Former Treasurer Joe Hockey lists redundant Canberra home

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In Sydney's Double Bay, local downsizers bought nearly 75 per cent of Essence, a 37-apartment boutique project launched by Melbourne-based Chinese developer Golden Age.
The most expensive sold on Saturday was a $2.9 million apartment.
The $110 million development at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-double+bay-121968762" target="_blank">315-321 New South Head Road</a> has harbour views.
Its one, two and three bedroom residences, most with a northerly orientation across Henrietta Street, were designed by the CARR design group for the Golden Age Group, led by restaurateur and property developer Jeff Xu which bought the site with planning approvals for $18 million.
Mr Xu told The Australian Financial Review he wanted Golden Age to be known for its prestige apartments as much as its high-rise towers.
"This is a strategic move for us to have another site in Sydney.
"I want to tell the market that Golden Age is not only about quantity, it is about quality as well.
"We can do [a] 70-storey high-rise. We can do [a] three or four-level low-rise as well, as long as it's good quality.
"Double Bay is a very good project for us to put our brand into Sydney.
"It's like a business card."
 
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Essence, Double Bay popular with downsizers

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It was Sydney's time in the auction spotlight as the busiest capital city auction market, given Melbourne's holiday long weekend distraction.
There was a jump back to an above 70 percent clearance rate for Sydney to boot. 
An original condition Curl Curl fibre cottage (above), which was set to take a starring role in the 2004 film Eucalyptus, captured the enthusiastic spirit when sold at $1.933 million at its onsite auction.
The 1940's house missed its chance in the spotlight given the cancellation of the film adaption of the Murray Bail book, but its Ray White agents secured $213,000 above reserve.
Some 11 registered bidders sought the rare offering as the <a href="https://raywhitefreshwater.com.au/nsw/curl-curl/1429265/" target="_blank">40 Bennett Street property</a> had last traded for £3,500 in 1953.
Sitting on 700 sqm of level land, the original cottage has three bedrooms and a sunroom, all a short walk to the beach. 
With 680 Sydney auctions there was a 72 percent, up on last week's dip to 68 percent.
Sydney’s strongest performing sub-regions were Ryde with an 86 percent success rate, followed by the Eastern Suburbs at 84 percent and Inner West at 78.6 per cent. 
South of Sydney the childhood Kiama home of the Oscar winning Hollywood fashion designer Orry Kelly, sold at auction.
It was just the 1880s cottage, not the block of land.
It fetched $1000, and is now set to be relocated to a Jamberoo farm, nine kms inland. 
The vendors who plan to rebuild on the block saved themselves around $30,000 in demolition fees.
Transportation of the period gem, two bedroom cottage with high ornate ceilings, polished floorboards and stained glass windows, was estimated at about $30,000.
Kelly, who had grown up in the home in the early 1900's, won three Oscars for his costume design in An American in Paris (1952), Les Girls (1958) and Some Like It Hot (1960). 
With Monday a public holiday for four out of the eight states and territories, the week saw 1,426 auctions held across the combined capital cities, substantially lower than the 2,304 held last week.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2010.23.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2010.23.28%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The combined capital city clearance rate softened this week, down from 68 percent last week to 66 percent, pulled lower by softer clearance rates in Brisbane (44 per cent), Perth (46.7 per cent) and Tasmania (33.3 per cent).
CoreLogic RP Data noted one year ago, the weighted average clearance rate was 77 per cent.
The nation's top auction sale was a triplex Drummoyne development site on Sydney Harbour that fetched $11 million.
It was downsizers who completed at Cremorne Point for a three-bedroom triplex garden apartment that fetched $4,065,000 in the highest Sydney single abode price.
The auction saw 10 parties raise their bidding cards after the $3.1 million opening bid. There had been a $3 million to $3.3 million auction price guide.
Melbourne's priciest sale was a $3.35 million Preston development site, while 46a Kinkora Road, Hawthorn was the dearest house sale at $2.83 million, at well above reserve.
The renovated four bedroom, two storey 1986 home had sold at $2,071,000 in March two years ago, with just a minor refurbishment inbetween sales.
A Victorian era Hawthorn home at 5 Yarra Street was passed in on a $4.4 million vendor bid, after the one buyer bid at $4.35 million. It had sold in spring 2014 at $4.36 million, suggesting little if any price growth.
Only 414 Melbourne auctions were held with the 70 percent successrate, a slight decrease on the 72 percent last week. Melbourne’s North West was the best performer, with 80 percent of reported auctions successful followed by the Inner South at 79 per cent.
A three bedroom home at Melton West was the nation's weekend's cheapest sale at $261,000, narrowly edging out a $262,500 sale in Loganholme, set mid-way between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The basic two bedroom Queenslander had last sold in 1986 for $41,500.
 
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Curl Curl cottage stars in Sydney weekend auctions

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GUEST OBSERVER
Once upon a time, chicken was a luxury few could regularly afford. It was a rare meal reserved for special occasions.
Yet since 1965 the per-capita annual consumption of chicken meat in Australia has increased ten-fold from 4.6 kilograms per person in 1965 to 44.6 kilograms in 2012.
The retail price of chicken per kilogram has decreased steadily in real terms from around A$9.67 in 1986 to A$5.67 in 2009. The arrival of Kentucky Fried Chicken in Australia in 1968 coincided with rapid increases in consumption. Today, Australians consume more than 600 million chickens per year.
The vast majority is produced in intensive “broiler” farms. How does chicken production and consumption on such a scale affect the foodbowls on the outskirts of our cities?
Intensive chicken farms need to be within about one hour of processing sites. Farms also need to be close to feed supplies and hatcheries, as they are run as highly integrated systems.
Partly because of this, the chicken meat industry in Victoria is concentrated within about 200 kilometres of Melbourne. Similar patterns occur in other Australian regions.
As the industry has sought efficiencies of scale, the size of farms has increased. Whereas farms of the 1970s might have housed 10,000 chickens, they now routinely hold 80,000 to more than one million chickens, producing five batches of chickens per year. Yet as producers have grown, the numbers of suitable urban fringe spaces – close enough to processing plants, but far enough from neighbours and sensitive land uses – are dwindling.
One reason is the growth in popularity of peri-urban areas to live in. “Counter-urbanisation” or “tree-changing” has been underway since the 1970s. Whether in Germany, the US or the Netherlands, it seems rural and peri-urban residents have little desire to live near a “monster chicken factory”.
In a recent paper we analysed 59 planning appeals related to broiler farms in Victoria between 1969 and 2013. Concerns about the farms have included odour, noise, dust, vermin, truck traffic, impacts on tourism, and water use and pollution.
<a href="/images/2016/03/14/image-20160224-16425-1lijx2i.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/14/image-20160224-16425-1lijx2i.jpg" alt="">
Broiler farm planning disputes appear to channel more intractable issues than odour control. It is possible that, on some level, having one million chickens not smell is unsettling in its own way.
As more chicken meat is produced, and in ever more technologically intensive ways, conflicts over farm applications inevitably unlock community disquiet about factory farming. The allowable forum for legitimate opposition, however, is narrow.
Intensive farming is often simply inconsistent with community expectations. The “unknowns” of industrialised agriculture are normally hidden from view in bucolic images on food packaging, and in the marketing of rural real estate as a “lifestyle” choice. Responses to the reality of broiler proposals – however technically well planned – sometimes seem rooted in the loss of this comforting, romanticised view.
In Victoria, the solution has been to regulate away the noise, smell and dust of a farm, mandate separation distances and even set aside areas with clear “rights to farm” and those with rights to “the good life”. The recent announcement of an inquiry in Victoria into the industry has a strong focus on resolving conflicts through siting and separation.
Yet the use of such an approach in Victoria has raised concerns about creating “sterilised” regions where no uses but industrial farms are permitted. Opponents to industrial farms also express concerns that proponents exploit loopholes and that a codified buffer distance privileges intensive farms rather than resolving conflicting land use issues.
On the other hand, less control arguably generates more conflict, as in parts of Canada and Texas. There, industrial, corporate-run farming operations dominate vast, generally lower socioeconomic areas. But as farms expand, divisive neighbourhood battles are still fought out.
Our research indicates that the use of buffer spaces around farms, guidelines and rights can achieve only so much. Despite the presence of clear guidelines, a recent proposal for a 1.2 million-bird farm in Baringhup, near Castlemaine, has led to more than two years of planning dispute and may result in Supreme Court action.
Conflicts between opponents and proponents of intensive farming will continue in rural areas. Fanning the flames is the growing demand for low-priced chicken (and an ongoing chicken nugget price “war”).
Local governments and decision-makers in Australia remain under-resourced to deal with opposition to the increasing scale of broiler farms. By advocating for a new understanding of what a rural and an urban area “means”, planning is at the coal face for negotiating politically acceptable outcomes to such conflicts. Yet a look at the images used to market farm products reveals what an uphill struggle this is.
 
Elizabeth Taylor is vice chancellor's Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/elizabeth-taylor-97922" target="_blank">here</a>.
Andrew Butt is senior lecturer in Community Planning and Development, La Trobe University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-butt-229215" target="_blank">here</a>.
Marco Amati is associate professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marco-amati-209638" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation
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Done like a chicken dinner: city fringes locked in battles over broiler farms

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GUEST OBSERVER
Agriculture in vogue: New commercial loans to the Agriculture sector hit 6-year highs in the year to January.
Lending: Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) fell by 2.9 percent in January after falling by 5.2 percent in December. Total lending is down by 7.4 percent on a year ago – the biggest annual decline in 3ó years.
Trends: In trend terms lending was down 0.9 percent in January – the fourth consecutive fall. Lending was up just 2.1 percent on a year ago – the weakest growth in almost three years.
The lending figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
What does it all mean?
Aussie consumers and businesses remain cautious about taking on more debt. Interest rates may be at or near generational lows, but that is no guarantee of higher rates of borrowing. In fact, after running up over the past two years, new lending commitments seem to have hit a ceiling. Effectively borrowers are saying that’s enough for now. 
Leasing is in favour though as are loans taken out by consumers to buy new cars.
The interesting point for the Reserve Bank though is whether another cut in the cash rate would serve any purpose. Borrowers are cautious about taking on more debt. And lower interest rates compress bank margins, affecting profits and potentially investment, employment and shareholder returns.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%209.58.38%20AM.png" alt="">
Mining has fallen from favour, to be replaced by agriculture sector. Loans to rural businesses over the past year were the highest in six years. The lift in lending coincides with renewed interest in the sector from overseas investors and expectations of stronger Asian demand for Aussie food and beverage products.
What do the figures show?
Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) fell by 2.9 percent in January after a 5.2 percent fall in December. Lending had hit a 7ó year high in September. Total lending is down 7.4 percent on a year ago.
Housing finance: The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases fell by 4.3 per cent in January while alterations &amp; additions rose by 1.5 percent. Home loans are up 15.9 per cent on a year.
Commercial finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 2.5 per cent in January after falling by 8.8 percent in December. Revolving credit commitments fell by 2.2 per cent (-23.1 per cent in December). Fixed lending commitments fell by 2.5 per cent – the fourth straight decline. 
Business loans are down 16.3 per cent over the year.
Over the year to January, total business lending was $531.6 billion, up 7.4 per cent over the year. Lending rose most in Victoria (up 13.1 per cent) followed by Queensland (up 10.9 per cent), South Australia (up 9.4 per cent), NSW (up 7.8 cent) and Western Australia (down 13.2 per cent). No consistent data was available for other states and territories.
Personal finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell by 1.4 per cent in January after rising by 2.1 per cent in December. 
Revolving credit commitments fell by 1.6 percent and fixed lending commitments fell by 1.2 per cent.
Personal loans are down 8.1 per cent over the year.
Within personal fixed finance commitments,  loans for new cars were up by 1.0 per cent on a year earlier while loans for used cars were down by 2.4 per cent. Loans for residential blocks of land were down by 10.0 per cent on a year ago – the 14th  decline in 15 months.
Lease finance : Lending rose by 3.7 per cent in January and was up 18.8 per cent over the year.
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Lending Finance  is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The slowdown in new lending runs counter to other indicators such as record dwelling starts, record tourism and strong employment growth. Still, it does accord with record car sales. Overall it appears that consumers and businesses remain happy to use their own funds to make purchases.
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The Reserve Bank will maintain its ‘easing bias’ although it may publicly express doubts about the ability of lower rates to boost activity.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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Loans to rural sector at six year highs: Craig James

An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Jonathan Chancellor

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