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GUEST OBSERVER
It is received wisdom in the Australian superannuation industry that bigger is better. The theory goes that funds with more assets under management will benefit from economies of scale, because the costs of running a superannuation fund are largely fixed and do not change much, whether you are managing assets of A$500 million or $50 billion.
This means that funds which have more assets under management will spend proportionally less on administration and overheads. This will allow them to make more competitive returns and supposedly give them an edge in the marketplace. The endpoint of this reasoning is that a market’s conditions will be a “critical threshold” when it comes to size.
Any funds smaller than that threshold would be too inefficient and would eventually succumb to the larger and more efficient competition, being either absorbed into a larger fund (to restore economies of scale) or losing members attracted to greener pastures, as the bigger funds could charge lower fees per member.
<h2>But is this true for industry superannuation funds?</h2>
We decided to look into whether it was indeed the case that larger funds have an advantage in economies of scale over smaller funds. In particular, we were hoping to find signs of healthy competition in the superannuation marketplace, as competition helps assure us that the industry is appropriately serving the needs and demands of consumers. Such competition might take the form of strategic mergers between smaller funds, or attempts by larger funds to advertise their relative efficiency and lure away the members of the smaller funds.
Signs of healthy competition are especially important for the superannuation industry, as one of the largest sectors in the economy and a crucial part of our collective ability to finance our retirement. The review used data from industry funds, which disclose this information in annual reports. Retail (for profit) funds do not always disclose this information.
<h2>Comparing administrative efficiency</h2>
In order to work out whether super funds really do benefit from economies of scale, we looked at the largest and the smallest industry superannuation funds. In particular, we compared them based on the proportion of assets under management spent on administration costs each year. If the theory that “bigger is better” is correct, one would expect to find that larger funds spend a far lower proportion of their total assets on administration costs.
One would expect this difference to be especially prominent given the massive size discrepancy between industry superannuation funds: the largest, Australian Super, held over $90 billion in assets in 2015 compared to the smallest fund, Transport Super, with a relatively miniscule $114 million.
When comparing some of the top dogs to a handful of middle-sized industry funds, there seems to be no marked correlation between size and efficiency:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124413/width754/image-20160530-879-1jmptgw.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4>
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124413/width754/image-20160530-879-1jmptgw.png" alt="">Source: Fund annual reports
</h4>
This is very surprising, as these funds do vary by quite a large margin of assets; the two mid-sized funds shown hold about $7 billion each, whereas the two large funds hold over $37 billion and $90 billion.
To further check these results we decided to compare a handful of the largest funds to the five smallest. At first glance, this comparison seems to confirm the “bigger is better” theory:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124414/width754/image-20160530-10041-3xm71g.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4>
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124414/width754/image-20160530-10041-3xm71g.png" alt="">Source: Authors
</h4>
However, when we look past these averages at some of the individual funds (both the largest and the smallest), a much more interesting picture emerges: some of the tiniest funds (in solid lines) seem to be just as cost-effective as the very largest (the dashed lines).
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124415/width754/image-20160530-864-pk9vqg.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124415/width754/image-20160530-864-pk9vqg.png" alt=""></h4>
<h4>Source: Fund annual reports</h4>
<h2>A potentially embarrassing situation</h2>
These findings run in stark contrast to prevailing wisdom about the superannuation sector and indeed the classic economic theory of economies of scale. Not only do the biggest funds have no discernible efficiency advantage over the much smaller mid-sized funds, but there are some positively tiny funds which are just as efficient as some of the very largest.
What is going on here – is this merely some market aberration, or are some smaller funds putting up a heroic David-and-Goliath struggle against their competitors? The question for the big funds is why they have no efficiency advantage over their smallest competitors, and what steps they ought to be taking to rectify a potentially embarrassing situation which has been in place for many years.
<h2>Data</h2>
The data-set used for this article consisted of the financial information of the 14 largest and 5 smallest industry superannuation funds, as ranked by APRA’s statistical publications. The data as to the level of administrative expense came from the annual reports of the superannuation funds. An overview of the funds and the size of their assets is shown below.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124416/width754/image-20160530-903-21i56.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h4><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/124416/width754/image-20160530-903-21i56.png" alt=""></h4>
<h4>Source: Fund annual reports</h4>
Rob Nicholls is lecturer, UNSW Australia, and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-nicholls-91073" target="_blank">here</a>.
This piece has been co-authored with Veevek Doolabh, a final year undergraduate law student at UNSW.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The myth of economies of scale: bigger is not necessarily better for super funds

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<h2>GUEST OBSERVER</h2>
In the resource regions – Western Australia and the Northern Territory – property values continue to fall.
Even though quarterly growth continues to be in negative territory in the Perth and Darwin house markets, the figures were slightly better in the April quarter compared to the March quarter, suggesting an ease in the fall of growth. Annual growth for these markets is presented in Graph 3.
Graph 3: Annual Growth Rates – Perth and Darwin
<a href="/images/2016/06/03/Graph_3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/03/Graph_3.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
The graph shows that property values have been falling in these areas throughout much of 2015 up to today. It has been established that movements in commodities can be closely tied to economic and housing market performance in WA and the NT. Despite a small rally in the commodity price index in the first quarter of 2016, iron ore is still less than one third of what it was worth when it peaked at US$180 in February 2011.
Additionally, profits from the mining sector are not as widely spread throughout the states, as the operational phase of the mining boom employs less labour than the construction period. Interestingly, it seems that the Queensland labour market is suffering a higher unemployment rate (6.5%) in response to mining divestment. This could be because of the tighter labour markets in WA and the NT, where workers have higher mobility in response to mining and construction projects.
Across the country, the transition from the mining to service industries is overstated in its ability to absorb lost jobs and income. The official Australian unemployment rate was 5.7% in April (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the previous month. However, April saw the loss of 9,300 full time jobs and an increase in 20,000 part time positions. Despite the official statistics, employment is being picked up through more precarious work.
Given that part time and casual work has been linked to reduced bargaining power for pay increases, it is no surprise that increases in Australia’s annual wage growth reached a historic low of 2.1% in the March quarter. Low wages may also be contributing to low inflation, which is in turn fuelling expectations of further cash rate cuts this year.
Moving forward, I would expect modest falls in house values in the major east coast cities, while units and resource market dwellings adjust to changed conditions in demand. Low interest rates and falling dwelling prices may present opportunity in certain markets across the country, but purchasers should look for strong and diverse economic fundamentals in the markets they choose to buy in.
Eliza Owen is the market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au. She can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here.</a>
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Value declines in resource regions show signs of easing: Eliza Owen

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GUEST OBSERVER
The proposed review of Mortgage Broker Remuneration Structures, suggested by the Finance systems Inquiry (FSI), posed some interesting questions, and as an experienced lender, Bluestone Mortgages would like to offer our perspective on some of the suggestions made. 
Our view is that the current remuneration system supports positive consumer outcomes, and that any change would, in the words of Gaden’s partner, Jon Denovan, be a “disservice” to the community. 
The reasons for our view are manifold. If the aim of the ASIC Review is to ensure quality consumer outcomes by assessing the impact of different remuneration structures, it is important to look carefully at the potential ramifications of any changes proposed. 
Having assessed the potential impact of alternative structures, we have come to the conclusion that any change to the current structure would negatively affect competition in the sector, due to their potential effect on consumer equity, access and the range of loan products available. 
A question of equity 
First, to equity. No discussion of the remuneration issue at hand is meaningful unless it is first understood that not all lenders, and not all consumers, are created equal. In fact, some lenders and some consumers are likely to be more affected by a move away from the current remuneration structure than others – and not in a positive way. 
We know that over 50 percent of consumers now choose to access home finance via mortgage brokers. Any move to charge a fee for service for brokers is likely to negatively affect consumers who choose non-bank lenders over the banks. 
Which brings us to the question of who these consumers really are? 
Often, they are individuals who, while entirely worthy of credit and able to service a loan, for one of many reasons – often outside their control – do not meet the prescriptive boundaries of traditional banks. Bluestone is one of a number of non-bank lenders which specialises in providing services to the many Australian consumers who find themselves in this category. 
A change in the current remuneration structure would mean that this group of consumers, as well as others who chose a mortgage broker, may be required to pay an upfront fee, whereas consumers (often so-called ‘ideal borrowers’) who choose to deal with the banks directly, would not. 
This is clearly not equitable. 
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A threat to access 
We then come to the interlinked issue of access. The monopoly of size, scale and market share of the big four and other traditional banks means they already have extensive proprietary distribution channels. Some of the banks have over a hundred years of traditional savings and loan infrastructure, and do not in any way see brokers as being essential to their business success, or even necessary. 
Non-bank operators, on the other hand, have shaped their businesses in an entirely different environment. Brokers have played a central role in their business growth, providing distribution services to the lenders and, the crucial other side of the coin, access to the growing group of customers who are no longer required to deal solely with one of a few major players, offering a relatively homogenous product range to a relatively homogenous pool of “ideal borrowers”. 
There’s no question in our mind that a change to current remuneration structures would put the use of brokers out of the financial reach of the vast majority of their target market. 
This would mean that a large and growing group of Australians would be denied access to one of the most fundamentally important financial transactions they are ever likely to make - buying a home. (And that’s without addressing the wider policy considerations around the role of home ownership in reducing the burden of caring for an ageing population into the future). 
Wider choice, more options, more competition 
Which brings us to the third – and also interlinked – part of our argument. And that is the fact that the current model actually promotes healthy and positive competition among lenders, which in turn leads to more options and greater choice for consumers. Which must surely be the kind of outcome the ASIC Review is trying to achieve. 
In fact, it’s clear that it is in fact thanks to the current broker remuneration model, and the free access it offers, that consumers are no longer limited in choice to the products and practices offered by the big four and other traditional banks. And clearly consumers are voting with their feet – more than half now access their home finance through a mortgage broker. 
In summary, from Bluestone’s lender perspective, the mortgage broker remuneration structure as it stands promotes not only consumer choice and competition, it also gives more consumers more access to more options than any alternative model. 
All of which lead to a much higher quality outcome for consumers than any alternatives posed to date. 
Royden D’Vaz is national head of sales &amp; distribution at Bluestone Mortgages and can be contacted <a href="https://www.bluestonemortgages.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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ASIC review into broker commissions: a lender's perspective

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One of Parkville’s most expensive houses sold under the hammer last weekend.
The four-bedroom home had been quoted at $3 to $3.3 million before auction.
The offering at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-parkville-122580242" target="_blank">81-83 Park Drive, Mentone</a> sold for $3.72 million.
There had been just the five owners since it was built in 1885 with a striking Hawthorn brick facade and a decorative cast iron balustrade.
The property last changed hands in 1999 for $962,500.
Parkville’s top residential sale price of $4.875 million was 260 The Avenue in 2014.
Records show Nocklofty at 551 Royal Pde had held the suburb’s second biggest house price of $3.7 million until last weekend.
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Parkville home, Mentone sells at $3.72 million

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia is a land of extreme weather. Events such as the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Queensland floods and Cyclone Yasi in 2013 are stark examples of climate-related risks faced by Australian households. Many homes are built in high-risk locations including floodplains, coastlines and bushfire-prone land.
The Climate Institute has released a report detailing the critical role Australian housing plays in the economy, and the risks housing faces with a changing climate.
It also sets out the role of banks and insurers in promoting risk reduction and climate adaptation for Australian housing.
<h2>Built on sand</h2>
Housing represents many Australians' biggest financial commitment – including those who rent rather than buy. Housing accounts for up to one-third of the economy, through direct and indirect means and across sectors such as finance, insurance and construction. With population projections forecasting continued growth and attraction to risky locations, banks and other financial institutions have a crucial role to play in minimising the economic threat posed by climate change.
But while the role of land-use planning and insurance with regard to climate risks has been well documented, the role of banks as gatekeepers to housing finance has been largely overlooked.
As the Climate Institute’s report points out, banks have a “unique ability and incentive” to steer housing purchases, because they are the main providers of residential financing. As such, they have large financial liabilities if homes are lost to fires, floods or other climate effects.
There are a range of tactics banks might use to reduce or mitigate climate risk. For instance, they could favour lending on homes that meet specific risk-reduction requirements, such as raised floor levels for homes in flood zones, or fireproof construction materials in bushfire-prone regions. This approach could also be used in setting mortgage insurance premiums as well as the mortgages themselves. Another approach is to better apportion their exposure - by lending on a reduced percentage threshold of the total property value.
Westpac has a Climate Change Position Statement and both the Commonwealth Bank and NAB have committed in reducing carbon. But more needs to be done for housing.
If banks continue under a business as usual approach, they face the risk that many properties will be devalued over time, through continued exposure to extreme weather events. This represents a significant financial liability, especially when you consider that a home loan typically takes 30 years to play out – a similar time scale to the many climate impacts expected for Australia.
Banks are already making moves to restrict lending based on location.
But the report outlines several other things banks could do, such as:
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<li>
examine climate risk exposure in their current lending practices
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<li>
use their role as financiers to support good policy, by engaging policymakers and financial regulators
</li>
<li>
encourage stakeholders, including the public, private sector and civil society sectors, to develop ways to minimise climate impact risks for housing
</li>
<li>
ensure losses are addressed in an equitable way.
</li>
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<h2>A climate insurance policy</h2>
The report also details how the insurance sector assesses risk to housing, and how it might improve its approach in the future, given the intersection of urbanisation, population trends and the trend towards living in climate-threatened areas.
The insurance sector has historically been seen as the messenger of housing market signals, because of its keen focus on assessing weather-related risk. But the 2011 Queensland floods highlighted many weaknesses in relying on insurance alone.
Many properties did not have adequate flood insurance, leaving many people without a home after losing their house to the floods. The Australian and Queensland governments and the private sector struggled to co-ordinate a cost-effective response, partly because of previous bad land-use planning decisions, but also because of the lack of adequate insurance cover.
A federal government levy helped the affected regions to “build better back”. Some chose to rebuild in the same high-risk locations.
Critically, gaps identified in building codes, land use and climate resilience still require a more co-ordinated response. The current Stage 2 coastal law reforms in New South Wales offer a potential example of how competing interests might be balanced.
At face value, this issue is a no-brainer. After all, risk mitigation is bread and butter for lending institutions and insurers, and we already know that extreme weather events are forecast to increase in frequency and severity. National resilience is required.
Quantifying this risk will be easier if financial institutions utilise access to relevant data on issues like coastal risk. Some of these data are becoming more freely available. Recognising the value of climate data is a trend that should continue. For a robust and resilient future, governments and the private sector should end their tango over who should pay for the information and agree that financial climate risks are best faced with eyes wide open.
Tayanah O'Donnell is research fellow, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tayanah-odonnell-122914" target="_blank">here</a>.
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How can your bank help reduce climate change risks to Australian homes?

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A former 1890s boot factory in Tempe was sold at weekend auction for $2.65 million.
It was listed by owner-builder Scott Stephens and wife, Pamela <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-tempe-122575166" target="_blank">who designed the 2011 refurbishment</a>, taking care not to lose too much of the building’s character.
A second storey was inserted at both ends and, as there was no outdoor space parts of the roof were removed to create three courtyards.
There's even a swimming pool with a rock-climbing course alongside. 
The authentic warehouse conversion with 438 sqm space at 8 Bridge Street came with a $2.4 million price guide.
It previously traded at $825,000 in 2010 and had been available at $1600 a week rental.
It was sold to Paul Hardy and Hilary Jackson who live in a unrenovated warehouse in Chippendale.
This article was first published in the Sunday Telegraph. 
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Tempe warehouse residence fetches $2.65 million

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian government’s intervention in the dairy crisis by offering concessional loans to struggling farmers has prompted suggestions that other types of regulation - such as a dairy floor price - might be needed.
The dairy industry was deregulated more than a decade ago; perhaps it’s time Australia looked to other countries for models to fix the system.
The current situation facing the Australian dairy industry is the same the world over. The European Union and the United States come to mind, as milk supply outweighs demand. But they provide assistance to their dairy farmers through subsidies or other support that helps to keep them viable.
Canada does not compete internationally in the dairy sector as it maintains a supply management system introduced in the early 1970s. Dairy is not subsidised, as government provides no support, and the price paid to farmers is negotiated among stakeholders.
When I explained this Canadian supply management model to Victoria dairy farmers, as part of my research earlier this year, they rejected the idea. However the current situation may cause some of them to reconsider this position.
While the Canadian model works for Canadian farmers, a supply managed system would be more difficult for those in Australia given that about 40% of Victorian dairy is exported and exports don’t happen with supply management. But Australia’s share of the global market is decreasing over time, despite the best efforts of Australian dairy organisations and farmers, and the number of farms continues to decline. Perhaps Australia will end up with a system resembling a supply managed one through market mechanisms.
I interviewed a total of 45 farmers and dairy stakeholders in Australia during February and March of this year, nearly half in Queensland and the remainder in Victoria and Tasmania. I was interested in how the Australian dairy model works, especially as it is cited by the business press in Canada as one that we should adopt given their dislike of Canada’s regulated system.
What is the supply management model? Briefly, it matches domestic demand with domestic supply and exports are non-existent. The system is based on quotas - for example a kilogram of milk solid costs C$25,000 in the province of Ontario where I live, and it represents about one cow’s worth of production. Producers need at least 50kg of milk solids to run a decently remunerative operation.
Stakeholders representing producers, consumers, processors, the restaurant association and others meet annually to determine price, not government. Included in this is a profit guarantee for farmers that allows them to make long-term decisions and maintain a middle class lifestyle while milking on average about 70 cows. It also means they are immune to this latest global crisis, and to future ones.
And if supermarkets decide to use milk as a loss leader, it is the deep-pocketed supermarket that takes the hit, not the farmer. The price paid to the latter is guaranteed by negotiation, which creates stability.
Clearly, this is not how it operates in Australia where the supermarkets, according to one Queensland dairy producer, “must bruise the farmers to give them a loss leader.” Nor is the price consumers pay for milk in Ontario out of line with that charged by Coles and Woolworths, the real regulators of Australian dairy. Southern Ontarians pay the equivalent of the infamous A$1.00 per litre – A$4.00 for Canada’s four litre container, and have done so for years.
I found in my research that Victoria’s dairy farmers are in favour of privatisation and deregulation. They talked a lot about efficiency and how they are among the world’s more efficient farmers, and Canadians must surely not be, given their system.
Perhaps this is true if efficiency is measured by getting the greatest amount of milk for the least input. But Australian dairy farmers fall behind by other parameters.
Ontario dairy farmers, for example, employ robotic technology at a much greater rate than their Victorian counterparts. New dairy barns are being put up all over the province and a majority of them install robots to do their milking. Ontario now has hundreds of farms using milking robots.
The situation in Victoria could well come to that of New Zealand’s, where cows may be culled and the survivor’s rations severely cut back, as farmers are unable to feed supplements in such an adverse economic climate.
In an interview, as part of my research, one New Zealand dairy farmer told me he was into “starvation mode” for his cows because of cost. He was feeding them with grass only and when that ran out, there was nothing else. He was certainly running an efficient farm, but at a significant cost to his own mental health and to that of his cows’ wellbeing and ability to provide milk.
One Victorian farmer told me that even before the announcement of cuts to the milk solids price, he and his colleagues “farmed at the margins". When prices are robust, so are farmer’s livelihoods, but when they collapse, as they always do in a commodity situation, so do their livelihoods.
This results in another vicious cycle of dairy farmers quitting the industry which leads to further instability. As another interviewee told me, following the cut:
“We will wait and see and hang on for dear life.”
Might the future of Victorian dairy be Queensland, where farmers suffered much of what their Victoria counterparts are now experiencing more than a decade ago after deregulation, and dairy is now a niche industry?
As one Queensland interviewee emphatically instructed me about Canada’s model:
“Don’t give away [the] regulated system!”
Now is the time for Victoria to consider the advice of this farmer and introduce more regulation.
Bruce Muirhead is professor of History and the associate vice president, External Research , University of Waterloo and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-muirhead-269512" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Time to get regulation back into Australian dairy?

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The amount of money Australia’s homeowners owe their banks rose above $1 trillion for the first time in April.
The latest rise in the value of outstanding home loans since March was only a modest 0.5 percent, but the annual growth rate sits at a five-year high of 7.4 percent.
The total of owner-occupier housing debt held by Australian lenders rose to $1.005 trillion in April from $998.8 billion in March.
The seasonally adjusted figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed the value of homeowner debt is now eight times where it was two decades ago, at $124 billion in January 1995.
It doubled to $248 billion in 2001, then to just under $500 billion by 2006.
While home loans are still growing strongly, the latest data suggests lending to housing investors has slowed.
Investor housing loans totalled $551 million in April, a rise of 0.3 percent, the RBA figures showed.
The last time a smaller increase in investor loans was recorded was in May 2009.
Annual growth in investor housing loans has now slowed to 6.5 percent, from 10.9 percent a year ago.
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Our $1 trillion home lending debt

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is time for the state government to put the interests of first homebuyers at the top of its agenda.
As part of a review of its Real Tax Policy ahead of the June 10, 2016 NSW Budget, REINSW has called for the state government to make amendments to stamp duty for first homebuyers.
Home ownership is not only something that individuals should aspire to, it is also something that government should foster and encourage as a means of building wealth and providing for a persons care post employment.
The NSW government needs to provide first homebuyers with a 50 percent reduction in the stamp duty on a purchase of a residential property less than $1 million and provide the ability to pay the stamp duty over time. 
Not supporting first homebuyers is to say the least short sighted and creates the risk that our best and brightest will be enticed to other states where the dream of home ownership can be a reality. 
The existing first homebuyer incentives are focused on new dwellings. The strategy being, by focusing demand toward new properties this will correct the supply problem. 
Unfortunately the strategy has two major short comings, firstly most first homebuyers buy existing properties as new dwellings are financially beyond their capacity. Secondly increasing demand will not solve the supply problem. 
We refer to ourselves us the Premier State, if there is truth behind the words then providing a pathway for our first homebuyers into their own home, is a clear way to demonstrate that the words have substance,.
John Cunningham is president, REINSW and can be contacted <a href="https://www.reinsw.com.au/imis15_Prod/web" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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NSW tax policy calls for first homebuyer relief: John Cunningham

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GUEST OBSERVER
News of Macquarie Bank tightening its loan to value ratio (LVR) for apartment high-rises has sparked fears of an oversupply in certain markets.
The bank named 46 postcodes where high-rise apartment lending would shrink to 70 percent of the value of the property.
The problem in these postcodes – which are concentrated in inner Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – is not one of supply and demand, at least not in the sense that there are more apartments than there are people to live in them. Supply and demand in these markets is not a question of how many people need a place to live versus how many places there are to live. Rather it is how many owner-occupiers and investors demand assets.
The former conception of supply and demand ignores the tax and finance incentives that encourage people to hold more property than they need to live in. These incentives include cash-free equity deposits, negative gearing and capital gains concessions, which have been introduced one by one into the housing market over the last 30 years. It makes sense then, that our understanding of supply and demand in real estate should be dynamic. As long as there is an investor looking for a property to put their money in, there is demand. As long as there is an investor demanding property, a developer is willing to supply.
Professor Laurence Murphy of the University of Auckland notes that when the price of property begins to fall, developers become less willing to supply dwellings. Graph 1 and 2 compares high-rise approval data in Victoria and NSW (which we have to assume is a proxy for inner city unit development) with quarterly growth rates in their respective unit markets.
Graph 1: Quarterly Approval Figures Victoria vs. Melbourne Units Quarterly Growth Rates
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Graph_1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/01/Graph_1.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
Graph 2: Quarterly Approval Figures NSW vs. Sydney Units Quarterly Growth Rates
<a href="/images/2016/06/01/Graph_2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <img src="/images/2016/06/01/Graph_2.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
The graphs show that approvals are highly responsive to changes in unit growth rates.
As demand for units falls away due to tighter LVRs, slowed wage growth and higher premiums on foreign investment purchases<a href="https://www.blog.residex.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/2016/05/26/may-market-update/?utm_source=membersNewsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Cid=ResiMay16&amp;mc_cid=d432d199da&amp;mc_eid=1c64ff30b3#footnote-1">[1]</a>, the first thing to crash will most likely be applications and construction of dwellings. This has wider economic implications, particularly for NSW and VIC, where construction has been a significant contributor to growth in gross state product.
The construction of units – whether in the application phase, construction phase or completion phase – moves in much larger fluctuations than the values of the units themselves. For example, in the September quarter of 2010, the number of approvals for units in blocks of four or more stories grew by 124% in NSW, yet nothing dramatic happened with Sydney unit value growth. Values grew steadily until 2013 when they began to grow at a higher rate. I am not saying that the supply of units to speculative investors is sustainable where population growth is low, nor is it optimal for the people living in them. However, it is clear that price movements and investor interest in units are a better indicator of expected supply movements than population growth rates.
The graphs also show the approval figures for other dwelling types over the past decade. Most strikingly, the number of high-rise units began outperforming detached housing approvals from March 2011. The salience of this phenomenon increased around the beginning of the 2013 housing boom.
Less important than the effect of supply on the value of a unit is the way units are supplied and how they are integrated with wider planning. Residential dwellings crowding out commercial and cultural facilities, which are partly what makes a city desirable in the first place, can limit a city’s desirability. A lack of diverse planning can also increase pressure on transport and road congestion. This is one of the many risks of investing in rapid high-rise growth areas, and has caused some young families and retirees to move to regional parts of the state.
Eliza Owen is housing market analyst for onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Oversupply fears rise as LVRs drop: Eliza Owen

The Victorian Government has secured the passage of the Building Legislation and Treasury Legislation (Tax Relief) Amendment Bill 2026, introducing a suite of reforms aimed at improving consumer protection and confidence in the apartment market.

Resilience Insurance, Australia’s leading Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) provider, has welcomed the move.

The LDI elements of the Bill passed with bipartisan support and now moves to the Legislative Council where debate and passage are expected later this month. It represents a significant milestone in the national shift toward stronger, longer-term protection for apartment buyers.&nbsp;

The reform would deliver practical benefits across the housing system. Apartment owners will have stronger protection if major defects emerge, developers and builders will have a clearer quality framework to work within, and the State will reduce the risk of serious building failures becoming a long-term financial and social burden for households, communities and government.&nbsp;

LDI helps support apartment delivery while providing stronger protection for buyers and encouraging better construction outcomes.&nbsp;

Resilience LDI provides apartment owners with 10 years of insurance-backed cover for major structural defects from completion, with direct claim access to the insurer. This means owners are not required to first pursue developers or builders through costly legal action before accessing protection.&nbsp;

Resilience Insurance has been operating in Australia since 2022 and has already insured hundreds of development projects covering many thousands of apartments across Australia.&nbsp;

At approximately 1.8 per cent of build cost, it is a cost-competitive alternative to the traditional two per cent Strata Bond, bond while delivering significantly broader and longer protection.&nbsp;

“The Victorian Lower House vote shows that reforms like this succeed when they are practical, evidence-based and supported by industry," says Corey Nugent, CEO of Resilience Insurance.

"Victoria is moving quickly on a reform that will make a real difference for apartment buyers, while supporting better building outcomes and greater confidence in apartment delivery.

“This is step one. We look forward to the Bill completing its passage through the Legislative Council and to working with government and industry to implement the framework effectively.”&nbsp;

Fast Facts: What is Resilience LDI?&nbsp;

<ul>
	<li>Resilience Latent Defects Insurance (LDI): Covers major structural defects for 10 years from completion.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Consumer-first: Direct claim access, no need for lengthy legal action.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Cost advantage: At approximately 1.8% of build cost, LDI is typically priced below the traditional 2% Strata Bond while offering broader protection.&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Market leader: Resilience Insurance is the first approved LDI provider in NSW.</li>
</ul>

The Building Legislation and Treasury Legislation (Tax Relief) Amendment Bill 2026 has passed the Victorian Lower House, putting Victoria on track to become the first state to legislate an industry workable LDI framework as a formal alternative to the Strata Building bond. 

Joel Robinson

10-year Latent Defects Insurance for new apartment buyers set to land in Victoria

Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.

Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.

There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" />

Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."

The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;

The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;

Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a>

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a> 
&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.

Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.

The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.

<img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" />

A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.

Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.

New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.

GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.

First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.

The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.

Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368853]

The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.

GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available.

Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]

The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.

The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]

For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.

GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.

"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.

"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]

GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.

The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.

&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.

The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.

<img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" />

A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.

The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.

"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.

The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.

Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."

The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.

<img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" />

The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.

S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.

Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.

John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.

Jonathan Chancellor

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