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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
What will happen now that the rains have come to many parched beef lands of Queensland? Current high cattle prices and renewed pastures suggest optimism, even good times. Perhaps record exports from the world’s largest beef exporter? If only if was that simple.
While an important indicator of Australia beef prices peaked recently, analysts warned export volumes were likely to fall.
High prices for Australian meat has already seen Chinese imports down this year by 30 percent and US imports down 40 percent <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-trade-agreements-fail-to-boost-australian-agriculture-and-food-manufacturing-47576">(</a>largely correcting a recent Australian trade gain<a href="https://theconversation.com/free-trade-agreements-fail-to-boost-australian-agriculture-and-food-manufacturing-47576">)</a>.
Restocking after drought would seem to account for the near record East Australian cattle price.
Unfortunately, eager buyers paying top dollar for a production input take a considerable risk, as was discovered 40 years ago when prices last peaked.
Not only is a cattle price of $6.66/kg on July 27 2016 still short of around $7.00/kg in the mid-1970s. Costs are markedly higher, as are debts.
Indeed, investigations reported by the Queensland Rural Debt and Drought Taskforce show extremely high levels of financial and personal stress. Key financial ratios are in disarray for many enterprises, small and large, family and corporate. Speculating on near-record cattle prices can, at best, buy a little time.
Most worrying are the inadequacies of income to service very high and rising levels of debts, secured by properties that have halved in values. A debt-deflation spiral is clearly underway.
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<h4><img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5660-4jbhng.jpg" alt=""></h4>
<h4>
Land and Debt index Queensland Beef. Figures in the Graph reveal ongoing declines in land values below and rising debts above, all the way to 2015. Later year debts are estimates, because of data difficulties. Bush Agribusiness using ABS and ABARE Data to 2012; McGovern projections from 2013
</h4>
Using projections, survey data and cross checking with those in the industry, it is estimated debt is up 50 percent since 2006. (A disclaimer is needed here as financiers have refused to release needed data, despite all manner of requests including last November at the Queensland Treasurer’s Rural Roundtable.)
Land values went the other way. In Queensland’s western pastoral areas, for example, Queensland’s Valuer General estimates the land market peaked around 2008 and then fell back to around 2005–06 value levels. “This market continues to be subdued, with very few sales transactions”, it reported.
Even initially very sound borrowers now see serious equity destruction. Extensive capital exposures seem to have been little appreciated, all round. Farmer equity below 70% is usually regarded as high risk. Average equity positions of even previously very low risk enterprises are now likely to be markedly declined.
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<img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5666-1vrtrwi.jpg" alt="">
<h4>
Illustrative Industry Equity positions 
</h4>
Apprehension, deep angst and quiet hope were evident in hearings of the Rural Debt and Drought Taskforce held across Queensland six months ago. The report is now in, but is surprisingly little discussed so far.
Evidence of widespread, serious financial and other problems has led to 14 recommendations, including establishing a reconstruction board, agricultural bank and a Royal Commission. Action was recommended on income, education, mental health and other needs.
In a nutshell, serious responses to major foundational financial problems are needed. Farm and town enterprises are depressed with many (once) “resilient” communities very much on the edge.
Rural Bank recently published research which reinforces the seriousness of the problem. A high number of transactions occurred in a rising market with asset values rapidly moving away from income potential. A significant number of loans involved speculation, on both sides of the agreement.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5643-emu4iu.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5643-emu4iu.jpg" alt="">
<h4>Rural Bank, Queensland North: build to twin peaks highlighted</h4>
Fundamentally, incomes cannot support debts. What on earth was going on when, across Australia, farmland prices and associated debts inflated in the teens each year for almost a decade, while incomes hardly moved?
The subpriming of Australian Agriculture is just one of the questions facing further Parliamentary Inquiries into finance, and Royal Commissions.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160728-21569-o0zmg.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<h4><img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160728-21569-o0zmg.png" alt=""></h4>
<h4>ABARES land and receipts per ha</h4>
It is time for not just plain talk on rural debt but for effective actions.
Problem loans now need to be re-solved, equitably. Land values need to be re-linked to earning capacity. A sustainable financial basis needs to be re-established across not just beef but other agricultural industries.
A well-constituted reconstruction board is pivotal in rectifying balance sheet stresses, catalysing solvency and brokering prudent inter-generational change.
Reconstruction in Australia’s past has achieved more equitable and higher value resolutions while avoiding fire sale losses, contagion, needless impoverishment and major capacity destruction across economies and communities.
“Political pressures will always favour the provision of liquidity; lasting solutions require a willingness to tackle the solvency issues,” wrote former Bank of England Governor <a href="https://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-End-of-Alchemy/">Mervyn King</a>.
Just maintaining rural liquidity by offering effectively unsecured public finance (such as with Drought and Dairy concessional loan program) despite criticism from Australian National Audit Office and other reports, seems foolhardy. More or slightly cheaper debt to those struggling with major debt overhangs is no real solution.
Doubling up by blaming the implementing state agencies for program design failures and then marketing these as the cornerstone Federal (and perhaps State?) policy is just foolish.
Four points in summary:
<ol>
<li>
Current rural problems are relatively easily solvable, and earlier generations succeeded. Solutions require governments and industries attuned to more prudent financial and monetary thinking.
</li>
<li>
There will always be losses in any correction but good policies, public and private, can contain and sensibly distribute losses.
</li>
<li>
Enterprises, industries and nations that recognise when important trends change and act accordingly can thrive while others stagnate.
</li>
<li>
Problems now evident in beef can affect any sector over-reliant on debt financing. Apt early interventions are far more effective than playing costly catch up.
</li>
</ol>
Unaddressed, problems will only spread. The temptation today is to pass on problems, uncorrected, to the next generation. Alternately, a competent and committed willingness to tackle significant solvency issues will underwrite our future prosperity, individually and as a society.
Mark McGovern is senior lecturer, QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-mcgovern-168" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Crippling rural debt looms as biggest threat to our beef producers

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GUEST OBSERVER
In a landmark ruling, the Supreme Court of Victoria has found that planning law, not strata law, is to govern short-term lettings of strata apartments.
Specifically, in Owners Corporation PS 501391P v Balcombe [2016] VSC 384, Justice Riordan found that a rule made to prohibit the use of a residential lot ‘for any trade or business’ in a strata scheme was invalid for these reasons:
<ol>
<li>The role of the owners corporation was confined to managing and administering the common property, and did not extend to restricting the use of a lot..</li>
<li>The rule was a substantial interference with the lot owners’ proprietary rights.</li>
<li>The strata law needed to clearly spell out clearly an intention to inhibit a lot owner’s use of their own lot for the rule to be valid - which it did not.</li>
</ol>
Background
The Watergate Apartments, Strata No PS 501391P is a mixed use development. It consists of 349 residential lots in two 16 storey apartment towers, erected upon a four storey podium which contains 12 retail lots and car park facilities. The plan of strata subdivision was registered on 28 June 2004. It is a residential Class 2 building under the Building Code of Australia, and therefore was not designed for the operation of a serviced apartment style business.
Ms Balcombe and Mr Slater utilise 14 apartments (1 owned, 9 leased, 4 available on a commission basis) to operate a Short-Term Letting business trading as ‘Docklands Executive Apartments’. In eight and a half years of operation, they have had over 3,500 bookings and 10,500 guests. They charge ‘executive’ prices, have minimum seven days stays, require photo identification and credit card details and can evict disruptive tenants immediately.
The City of Melbourne Council (the planning authority) consented to the use of apartments in the building for short-term commercial accommodation (serviced apartments) on condition that: a smoke alarm was installed in each bedroom; an emergency evacuation plan was affixed inside the entry doors; exit signs were placed in the corridors; and the tenants acknowledged the receipt of a safety/evacuation induction.
The proceedings were commenced by the Owners Corporation which sought restraining orders against Ms Balcombe and Mr Slater, alleging a breach of its rule (Rule 34) that provided:
The Proprietor or Occupier of a residential Lot must not use a Lot or the Common Property for any trade, profession or business (other than letting the Lot for residential accommodation to the same party for periods in excess of one month), nor permit any other person to do so, unless:
<ol>
<li>The person … is a full time resident of the Lot and only operates a home office …; and</li>
<li>The relevant planning scheme does not prohibit the relevant trade, profession or business to be carried on in a Lot; and</li>
<li>The Lot owner has obtained all necessary permits from the relevant authorities …</li>
</ol>
The Court’s finding that the Owners Corporation had no power to make the rule
The functions of an owners corporation are set out in section 4 of the Owners Corporations Act 2006(Vic). They can be summarised as:
<ol>
<li>to manage and administer the common property;</li>
<li>to repair and maintain the common property, fittings, fixtures, equipment and services relative to it;</li>
<li>to maintain strata insurance;</li>
<li>to keep records and issue certificates.</li>
</ol>
The powers of an owners corporation to make rules are set out in section 138 of the Owners Corporations Act 2006 (Vic), and are limited to the purposes set out in Schedule 1 of that Act. These purposes are relevant:
<ol>
<li>Health, safety and security – of lot owners, occupiers of lots and invitees.</li>
<li>Change of use of lots – which affect the insurance premiums payable by the owners corporation.</li>
<li>Behaviour of owners, occupiers and invitees on common property, noise and other nuisance control.</li>
</ol>
The Court found that the principal function of the owners corporation was ‘to own and manage the common property of the strata development’.
The Court found that the power of the owners corporation to make rules to prevent the use of a lot for an illegal or injurious purpose, to prevent a nuisance or hazard, or the behaviour of and noise created by tenants, was limited. It was not sufficient to support a general ban on Short-Term Letting on all lots. 
Health and safety issues and changes of use for a lot (an apartment), were planning matters for the Melbourne City Council to deal with.
Therefore the rule to outlaw use of an apartment for short-term letting was invalid as it exceeded the power of the owners corporation and interfered with the rights of the freehold owners.
As a result of this decision, an apartment owner in Victoria needs only planning permission to use their apartment for short-term lettings: Airbnb style short stays and service accommodation. They do not need permission from the owners corporation and any rule in place to restrict or prohibit that use is invalid.
Is the position the same or different in NSW?
There are subtle but significant differences in the strata law between NSW and Victoria:
<ul>
<li>In Victoria the owners corporation makes rules, in NSW it makes by-laws.</li>
<li>In both states, the common property is owned by the owners corporation (it used to be called the body corporate).</li>
<li>In NSW, under section 47(1) of the Strata Schemes Management Act 1996 (NSW), by-laws can be made generally ‘for the purpose of the control, management, administration, use or enjoyment’ of the lots or common property’, without limitation (see section 43), and with a right of appeal.</li>
<li>In Victoria, the rules are limited to the powers set out in Schedule 1.</li>
<li>Also in NSW, original by-laws which are lodged with the strata plan for registration can be broader than the section 47(1) powers, but are subject to section 49 restrictions which include prohibitions on by-laws which restrain leasing.</li>
</ul>
In NSW, the new Strata Schemes Management Act 2015 will commence on 30 November 2016. Section 136(1) is in similar terms to section 47(1) of the 1996 Act. Section 139 contains the section 49 restrictions, with some additions, including an override that a by-law must not be harsh, unconscionable or oppressive.
As a result, it is unclear whether the Victorian decision can be taken as a precedent to invalidate by-laws in NSW Strata Schemes which prohibit the use of lots for short-term letting.
Comments
The NSW Parliamentary Committee on Environment and Planning is currently conducting an inquiry upon the Adequacy of the Regulation of Short-term Holiday Letting in New South Wales. It would be most helpful if it were to indicate how the strata law should be clarified to deal with short-term lettings when it reports at the end of August 2016.
This matter needs to be addressed because of the requirement that all strata schemes review their by-laws within 12 months of the commencement of the 2015 Act.
My suggestions are:
<ul>
<li>That the planning authorities specifically provide for the regulation of short-term lettings for strata apartments in their planning policies.</li>
<li>That owners corporations be able to include a policy statement, which sets out their policy upon use of the residential apartments for short-term lettings, as an adjunct to their by-laws. This policy statement would not have the legal force of a by-law, but would be influential if an application were made to the planning authorities for approval to use an apartment for short-term lettings.</li>
<li>To assist in enforcement, the owners corporation should be given the power to assist the enforcement officers of the planning authority to prosecute contraventions of the planning laws.</li>
<li>If a short-term letting use is being carried on, with or without planning approval, the owners corporation should be entitled to levy a surcharge upon the strata levies payable for the apartment in question, to cover extra wear and tear, garbage, insurance premiums, visitor parking and water use.</li>
</ul>
Anthony J Cordato is lawyer, Cordato Partners and can be <a href="https://www.businesslawyer.com.au" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
 
 
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Property 101: Victorian strata and lot owner proprietary rights

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GUEST OBSERVER
The last of the inflation reports – the producer price indexes – confirms the absence of inflationary pressures. 
The Reserve Bank Board can feel comfortable in cutting rates next Tuesday. The headline consumer price index showed annual growth at 17-year lows, underlying inflation is at record lows, imported consumer prices have fallen the most in four years and annual business inflation is standing at just 1.0 per cent.
The average of preliminary, intermediate and final demand indexes of domestic producer prices averaged growth of just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter – matching the consumer price headline and underlying readings.
The weak lending data removes yet another barrier to the Reserve Bank cutting rates. We can’t read too much into the result as Brexit and the Federal Election may have influenced lending intentions. But a fall in both personal and business lending is not a good look – especially with interest rates already so low. It was the smallest monthly lift in credit in 33 months. It was the biggest annual fall in personal loans in almost four years. And it was the biggest monthly fall in business loans in 3 1⁄2 years.
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
The producer price figures are important in flagging price pressures at an early stage. If business costs are rising, the risk is that these will be passed on in terms of higher prices of final consumer goods. The Consumer Price Index is regarded as the key gauge of economy-wide inflation. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Lending growth softens, tame business inflation: CommSec's Craig James

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The Chinese property developer Greenland tested the Sydney off the plan market with its weekend launch.
It secured the off the plan sale of around 100 apartments in its new Lachlan’s Line precinct, in Sydney’s north-west. 
The mixed-use development, nbh at Lachlan’s Line will consist of 900 apartments across six towers at Macquarie Park which is set to become Sydney’s fourth CBD with a wave of new development currently underway.
The first stage weekend offering had one bedroom apartments priced from $580,000 to $750,000. 
The one bedroom plus study apartments were priced from $650,000 to $880,000, with two bedroom, two bathroom apartments priced from $950,000 to $1.27 million.
There were four bedroom, three-storey townhouses priced at over $2.5 million in the complex designed by two architecture firms, Bates Smart and Turner, which will include a corporate space to be occupied by the City of Ryde Council. 
Sherwood Luo, the managing director of Greenland Australia, said there had been a strong response from the market. There were a reported 180 apartments available to purchase in the first offering.
“Nbh at Lachlan’s Line will become a lifestyle-oriented community with a beautiful big park anchoring the development as well as a huge 6000 square metre activated retail precinct featuring restaurants, cafes and gourmet grocers which will become a new destination for Sydneysiders." 
Mr Luo also credited the day’s sales tally to the "highly respected reputation which Greenland has built as a global developer." 
“Greenland has developed several of the tallest residential towers and largest urban complexes in the world,” he said. 
CBRE Residential Projects agent Tim Rees said the results "surpassed expectations." That's a reference to the recent insights on Sydney's residential off-the-plan property market from CBRE Residential who've acknowledge the days of 100 percent whole block sellouts are over.
These days Sydney had returned to a “new normal”, the CBRE Residential managing director, David Milton suggested, amid increased media headlines suggesting reduced demand and higher stock levels could spell trouble. 
Although the cost of buying property in Australia has increased for foreign buyers and lending is more restricted, David Milton remains confident, and does not foresee a long-term impact on demand from these buyers.
“There are some short term settlement issues with FIRB buyers, but longer-term they will find a solution," he recently suggested.
Offshore funded sales will continue to account for a significant part of the market, he anticipates. 
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Greenland's Lachlan Line project, nbh launched

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Be warned if you are buying or selling your $2 million plus home in NSW, there's new onerous tax paperwork obligations.
The Federal Government has introduced what they dubbed was a foreign residents’ capital gains withholding tax - with the worthy aim to catch foreigners selling up and taking off with all the proceeds.
But is is actually causing severe inconvenience and costly impacts on Australians in suburbia.
The laws makes buyers de facto tax collectors - and the wide tax net being cast will not just catch those few tricky foreigners on their mostly profitable exit from our shores.
It basically requires the purchaser, where the vendor is a foreign resident, to hand over 10 percent of the purchase price towards the Australian Tax Office who will then assess the foreigner's full tax obligations.
But every Australian resident vendor also needs to provide a clearance certificate otherwise 10 percent will head off to Canberra for a time.
The obligation is on the purchaser to ascertain if the vendor is foreign, and if so, then have your solicitor and bank, direct 10 percent to the ATO on settlement. 
It comes with penalties as any purchaser who fails to correctly withhold will pay an administrative penalty equal to the amount of tax they should have remitted to the ATO.  
Where a certificate is provided, the purchaser has no requirements.
Ideally it ought be included by the vendor in the contract on auction day, but the online Clearance certificate application for Australian residents form only became available on ato.gov.au/FRCGW from late June which didn't help its introduction.
Solicitors, who have had to hike conveyancing fees, tell me there have been long delays in obtaining a certificate. 
This means some resident vendors are having rightful funds temporarily withheld from sale proceeds. Chaos if your are off to buy something else.
Any likely prestige vendor this spring ought apply asap to the ATO for a clearance certificate even before the property gets listed for sale as it lasts 12 months.
And also if you think there's a chance the house or apartment will likely fetch $1.9 million, but might fetch $2 million on auction day.
Also get your tax returns in for the past two years because that will assist in the process. If the property ownership and revenue is part of the black economy then expect it to be detected once it goes onto the ATO data base.
If the vendor is an Australian resident, the aim is for a certificate to be issued electronically within days, but data irregularities will trigger weeks of delay.
Any withholding does not affect the transfer of ownership, but it may prudent for a special condition in the sales contract that delays completion until obtaining an ATO certificate.
This all dates to 2012 with the legislation finally becoming law in February this year to take effect from July 1 for property including vacant land, buildings, residential and commercial property, leaseholds and strata title schemes. The government website suggests the $2 million figure ensures the vast majority of residential house sales will be unaffected, though CoreLogic has the number of Sydney suburbs with a median value in excess of $2 million doubling in the space of just a year to 40.
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Foreign residents' withholding tax to leave locals short for property upgrades

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SPONSORED POST
Do you own a home on a large block of land in an area that's in high demand? You could be sitting on a gold mine and not even know it.
As Perth's population looks to maintain growth and demand for property in inner city locations seems to soar, your backyard could be the key to unlocking wealth.
More and more West Australians are taking advantage of zoning changes by swapping the hills hoist for a duplex development or triplex development investment.
Here's how it works. Say you've owned a house on an 800sqm block for five or 10 years. In that time you've partially paid down the mortgage, leaving you with some decent equity. You could borrow against this equity to fund a subdivision, which could occur in two ways:
<ol>
<li>Keep your existing home and build in the backyard</li>
<li>Demolish your existing home and develop the entire property.</li>
</ol>
Benefits of developing your backyard
As long as you conduct a careful feasibility study, developing your property can be a profitable venture.
Generate multiple rental incomes
By subdividing your property into a duplex development or triplex development, you'll have the potential to double or triple the earning ability of your land. You could live in the existing home while renting out the new home/s. And if rental returns are strong enough, you could be looking at a positively geared investment.
Maximises your land's value
Many homeowners value the lifestyle benefits of a large backyard. However, if you're willing to sacrifice some square meterage, you'll maximise the value of your land by releasing cash from an unused backyard – something you probably didn't factor in when originally buying the property.
Relatively low risk
It's simple maths really - one lot, multiple dwellings. Unlike a traditional single house development where you build one home on one lot, a duplex development or triplex development allows you to split the land cost between two or three dwellings. Of course, the cost of subdivision must be factored in, but when you consider that each new property you create could be valued almost as much as a similar sized dwelling on a larger block, it's easy to see where profits can be made.
Generate cash flow
Put simply, the more money coming in, the more you have to reinvest in other opportunities.
Opportunity to sell existing house
Many investors stay in the existing home when developing their backyard. However, you could potentially sell the existing house (often for close to the price you paid for the land and house originally), which could be free of capital gains tax. You could use this to pay off your mortgage or release much needed funds for another investment.
Can I develop my backyard?
If you want to maximise the development potential of your backyard, you'll need to first gain an understanding of the Residential Design Codes of Western Australia, commonly known as 'R-Codes'.
As a basic rule, R-Codes stipulate how many residential units are allowed to be developed on a 10,000sqm block of land. You can use this to work out the minimum size of a residential block. For example, a 1000sqm lot in an R20 zoning would allow you to subdivide into two blocks of 500sqm.
However, R-code rules shift all the time. For instance, in August 2013 the codes went through significant changes to cater for increased demand for housing. One change saw the R20 code change its average lot size to 450sqm (down from 500sqm), while the new R60 code now permits an average lot size of 150sqm (down from 180sqm).
It's crucial to stay on top of R-codes to ensure a successful backyard development.
Ready to see what lucrative opportunities are tied up in your backyard? Talk to Summit Projects. They specialise in subdivisions, from triplex developments, to duplex developments and strata developments (Perth).
That means they can help you work out the best way to maximise your site's potential, as well as navigate R-coding and council requirements.
For more information from Summit Projects, <a href="https://www.summitprojects.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>. 
 
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Benefits of building an investment property in your backyard: Summit Projects

Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/61851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Mayors, CEOs, citizens and policy analysts are working to create uplifting images of their future cities. Their intended result is clear unifying visions for the city futures they desire.
So how can foresight make a difference in cities?
<h2>Visioning</h2>
The first way foresight improves cities is through visioning projects. The City of Greater Geelong is aiming to look ahead 20 to 30 years through its first visioning and strategy project, Geelong 2040. Interviewed about this, Geelong City CEO Kelvin Spiller said:
"Geelong 2040 will be a city-changing experience, for the long-term betterment of its residents and stakeholders. City visioning will be supported by community engagement. In the same manner that corporate engagement helps the carriage of new innovations upwards, visioning can do this for the planning of urban areas."
Perhaps longer-term visioning should be legislated to encourage managers to help cascade preferences upward and not only into the city vision.
<h2>Scenarios</h2>
The second way foresight shapes cities is by applying futures methods like scenarios. Scenarios use group problem-solving and collective cognition to shape insights into alternatives.
What are our 2040 city futures scenarios? Considering an emerging regional plan for Southeast Queensland, professor Sohail Inayatullah, the first UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, created the following alternatives:
Scenario one: visions are achieved and our cities are still liveable. By 2040, the population has dramatically increased, but good governance, community consultation and foresight have mitigated negative possibilities (crime, congestion, pollution) and enhanced positive possibilities (job growth, green belt protection, water and energy management).
People want to move into these visionary cities, even with higher housing prices. A fair go is still possible.
Scenario two: cities arrive at the fate of being “hot and paved”. Market pressures kept driving up housing prices. Developers paid lip service to green and social concerns and a two-class society has emerged. Traffic problems did not decrease; rather, efforts to widen highways led to more congestion. Funding went to major highway connections while public transport and alternative working-from-home practices were overlooked.
Global warming has only made life worse – temperatures continue to rise, water shortages increase. Health indicators worsen.
Three tiers of government look to each other for solutions. Federal governments just seek to stay in power. Capacity for sustainable futures shrinks.
Scenario three: worse yet, 2040 could be wired and miserable. In this scenario, the previous 20 years have been a series of confrontations between local, state and federal governments, between developers and environmentalists, between individual freedom and security, young and old, rural and coastal areas, and new migrants (many environmental refugees) and old migrants.
It is a world of endless sprawl, congested highways and gang warfare. Technology and power are used to keep collective peace.
Scenario four: the concern is for the long-term future. Councils all over Australia continue to develop their own visions. As a result, there is a community capacity to innovate.
The percentage of people known as “cultural creatives” has grown dramatically. The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation and global governance have become the official values.
The main changes are toward home-based work, public transport and active transport. Futures thinking is helping cities get ahead of challenges such as climate change, population growth and democratic policy selection.
Inayatullah’s new book, What Works, discusses other studies about city futures.
<h2>Sustainable actions</h2>
A third way foresight shapes futures is through sustainable actions. The following four southeast Queensland cities have undertaken city visioning in areas of public transport, energy and environment, and liveability.
Brisbane is planning subway metro and cross-river rail projects. These will benefit commuters in the middle and outer suburbs, who are increasingly experiencing long periods of gridlock.
On the Sunshine Coast, a 15-megawatt solar-powered plant is a first for Australian local government. It will offset the council’s entire electricity consumption by 2017.
On the Gold Coast, 7.3km of light rail extensions will be delivered before the 2018 Commonwealth Games. This will ease congestion, improve accessibility and promote economic growth.
In Logan, a Southbank development will create recreational space on river banks alongside floating restaurants to stimulate investment.
When I interviewed former Brisbane City CEO Jude Munro about city foresight, she observed:
"The benefits from closely linking land use and transport planning are a clear priority. However, more is required. Better legislation is called for to help cities to plan with foresight, but also city councils should be trialling a range of other measures being employed successfully in Australia."
"For example, having a community coalition of local leaders like the one the City of Logan is building can have positive insights for local governance teams to consider. Also, a dedicated team like the urban renewal team in Brisbane in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s could help re-establish principles of local area planning in cities of southeast Queensland."
In southeast Queensland, a new regional plan will unite its cities’ plans under a high-level strategic vision for the next 50 years.
Inayatullah, Spiller, Munro and I agree that, to ensure long-term actions work sustainably, cities should engage stakeholders and communities in visioning, involve futurists who understand how to apply and deepen scenarios and foresight methods, and create strategies within a futures framework. The last step relies upon:
<ul>
<li>
developing stronger sectoral, suburban and regionally aligned long-term plans;
</li>
<li>
aligning city short-term corporate plans to long-term visions;
</li>
<li>
working with state and federal government to align city visions with global East-West strategies, including geopolitical, economic and cultural elements; and
</li>
<li>
refreshing visions using futurists' methods to ensure a scientific and democratic engagement process.
</li>
</ul>
Foresight is synonymous with a transforming, renewable and complex urbanism. Globally, cities are driving change and applying foresight to open their markets and improve collective prosperity and places.
The need for sustainable urbanism compels us to update plans not only for physical infrastructure but also for “softer” matters of population, energy, ecology, safety, education, health and seamless connection up, down and across sectors, borders and cultures. The more we think ahead with greater depth and breadth of understanding and co-operation, the better our city futures will be.
Colin Russo is futurist, University of the Sunshine Coast and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/colin-russo-267108" target="_blank">here</a>.
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A tale of five cities: applying foresight to shape their futures 

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MH Premium Farms (MHPF), the Australian agricultural investment group of UK-based hedge fund founder, Sir Michael Hintze, has bought Deltroit, the Gundagai district farm.
The 2573 hectare Mundarlo property was offered for sale to wind up the agricultural portfolio of the Brisbane-based Australian Pastoral Group who had bought Deltroit in 2012 from  Anthony Crichton-Brown.
No price has been disclosed for the latest sale, but Inglis Rural were expecting $18 million to $20 million
MHPF’s properties now cover more than 50,000ha, mostly NSW, but also North Queensland, where MHPF spent $9 million recently on expanding its irrigated sugar farming operations at Ayr.
Deltroit will be used by MHPF to grow prime lambs, cattle and crops.
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Billionaire Michael Hintze buys Deltroit

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The high quality of Australia’s universities is a major drawcard for international students, but accommodation availability is just not keeping up with supply in Sydney.
In the latest rankings, Sydney University sits on The Times Higher Education top 100, giving the long established international rivals a run for their money. It came in ranked at 61st in the world. The University of NSW joins Sydney among the universities in another ranking, the QS top 100. 
Australia's international student population continues to grow at a double digit rate, recent research from the estate agency, Savills International.
The OECD noted this reflects an international trend of student mobility when they reported more than four million international students were enrolled in tertiary education outside of their country of origin in 2013, an increase of 50 percent from 2005 levels.
Australia hosted the third largest number of international students at 6.2 percent in 2013, behind the US and UK at 19.4 percent and 10.3 percent respectively.
Sydney's standing contributes to robust demand for international student accommodation. 
New South Wales, then Victoria and Queensland have the greatest number of enrolments. 
NSW has around 327,000 domestic higher education students with another 93,000 international students.
The top nationalities, China, India, Vietnam, Republic of Korea and Malaysia. 
Chinese students provided over 27 percent of the total number of international students in Australia in 2015. 
Australia ranked as the third most popular destination for Chinese students (12.1 percent) after the US (33 percent) and Japan (12.3 percent). Australia was also third most popular for students from India after the US (48.2 percent) and UK (11.5 percent).
This has made property investors, institutional and private, move beyond the traditional property markets into student accommodation where the fundamentals are strong.
Some five percent of students are in university accommodation, five percent are in commercial accommodation with 90 percent renting privately or living at home.
At the moment there is a "critical undersupply" of appropriate Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in Sydney, Savills Sydney student accommodation director Conal Newland said..
The high occupancy levels, robust revenue growth and attractive yield pricing make student accommodation is an attractive investment, he concluded.
The result of the growing levels of investor activity has meant that the student accommodation market is changing rapidly. 
Savills research indicates that more than $2 billion of capital has been earmarked for development projects across Australia since the start of 2015. 
Several new institutional investors have entered the market including Blue Sky Private Real Estate, Cedar Pacific, Global Student Accommodation, Scape, Valparaiso and Wee Hur. They have joined the likes of Unilodge, best known for their Central Park, Chippendale offering.
There are currently 67,695 PBSA beds in the eight Australian capital cities. All cities have an existing supply of less than 12 percent per full-time student with the exception of Canberra's 27 percent.
Melbourne and Brisbane have the largest development pipelines.
Sydney has a limited pipeline over the next four years with an additional 3,665 beds, of which around 38 percent are proposed by universities.
Savills nominated Urbanest as the most active off-campus developer with three properties completed since 2015 and another two in development.
Sydney saw 3,200 beds delivered in 2015 with these new properties trading at circa 70 percent occupancy in their first semester of operations.
In 2016 the average occupancy levels are at above 90 percent.
A number of universities, including the University of Western Sydney have commenced on-campus projects.
UNSW has been active delivering new halls of residence at the Kensington Campus in 2014 and 2015.
University of Sydney is an increasing participant – particularly at lower rental levels with the delivery of the Queen Mary building and weekly rents less than $300.
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 Student housing not meeting supply in Sydney

Apartment buildings are increasingly being designed around how people actually live day to day, not just how they want a building to look.

For buyers, that shift is showing up in practical inclusions that respond to changing habits. Work-from-home spaces, EV charging, wellness amenities, secure bike storage and parcel management are becoming part of the broader apartment conversation, reflecting a move toward buildings that reduce friction in everyday life.

Online shopping has become one of the clearest examples of that change.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion online in 2025, with nearly one in four retail dollars now spent online. That has made parcel delivery a regular part of apartment living, rather than an occasional inconvenience.

For apartment residents, however, the delivery process can be less straightforward than it is for detached homes. Parcels may be left in lobbies, redirected to Post Offices, missed entirely, or placed under the responsibility of building managers and concierge teams.

That is why secure parcel infrastructure is increasingly being considered alongside more familiar apartment amenities.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-VjjLwoViX0?si=A3k7ws9NX35Uac7_" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Australia Post Parcel Lockers offer one way to address the issue. When a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS, then collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN. The parcel is kept secure, accessible and removed from common areas.

The broader Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations across Australia, positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and other accessible locations.

For new apartment projects, the relevance is clear. A building’s amenity offering is no longer only about lifestyle spaces, but also about convenience, security and functionality.

As buyer expectations evolve, secure parcel delivery is becoming part of the same design conversation as flexible working, sustainable transport and resident wellbeing.

It is one less thing for residents to worry about, and another example of apartment design adapting to the way Australians now live.

Joel Robinson

Apartment design is adapting to the way Australians shop

While school holidays and trips to Europe tend to define the winter property market, there's been no cold snap at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> in North Sydney.

Developer-builder&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a> sold more than $35 million worth of apartments throughout June, including a $6.8 million apartment that now ranks among the highest apartment sales ever recorded in North Sydney.

SRM Residential agent Ben Stewart said buyer demand throughout June reflected a mix of improving market confidence and longer-term thinking from owner-occupiers.

"We're seeing strong demand from owner-occupiers who are taking a longer-term view," Stewart said.

"Many recognise the opportunity to secure an apartment in an iconic building and premium location while values remain attractive. They may initially lease the property, but the intention is to eventually move in themselves, rather than purchasing purely as an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=367129]

Located at 177 Walker Street, The Walden will deliver 161 one, two, three and four-bedroom residences across a 30-storey tower designed by Rothelowman. Every apartment occupies a corner position, maximising natural light, cross ventilation and views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, Sydney Heads and the northern districts.

Rather than a traditional balcony, the residences feature winter gardens that seamlessly extend the open plan living areas, creating versatile spaces for relaxing or entertaining throughout the year. Floor-to-ceiling glazing draws in natural light while showcasing sweeping views from the building's elevated Walker Street position.

Every apartment features high-end Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, and fully integrated appliances.

The larger residences have been planned with distinct entertaining and private zones, with many master suites positioned on corners to capture natural light and harbour views. Walk-in dressing rooms, freestanding baths and refined stone finishes reinforce the house-like feel that has resonated with downsizers and owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6393]

Rothelowman Principal Ben Pomroy said the project was designed to make the most of its unique position overlooking the harbour.

"The Walden is a celebration of all things beautiful, curated for those who expect nothing less than exceptional," Pomroy says.

"Meticulously designed entertaining spaces and light-filled living areas that capitalise on capturing the natural beauty of Sydney's iconic harbour."

Residents will also have exclusive access to The Pavilion, a dedicated amenity building featuring a rooftop pool, wellness studio, gymnasium, sauna, concierge service, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and work-from-home facilities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6402]

The project marks ALAND's first major luxury apartment development in Sydney's inner-city market after more than two decades delivering residential communities across Greater Sydney.

Founder and CEO Andrew Hrsto previously said the rarity of the Walker Street site made it an opportunity the company could not overlook.

"This is a rare opportunity to bring a truly exceptional project to life in one of Sydney's most iconic locations, and to showcase our craftsmanship and design expertise at a world-class level," Hrsto said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6383]

The Walden has been introduced to the market at a time when demand for living in North Sydney is at an all-time high. Billions of dollars have been invested in infrastructure, including the recently opened Victoria Cross Metro station, located just 300 metres from The Walden, providing residents with direct access to the Sydney CBD in just minutes.

Private investment has also transformed the area through the arrival of new retail and dining destinations, elevating the lifestyle offering in what was once considered primarily a commercial precinct rather than an aspirational residential address.

The Walden is currently under construction and is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

ALAND records $35 million in sales in North Sydney as The Walden bucks quiet winter selling season

The long-awaited redevelopment of the former Eastlakes Shopping Centre site has reached a major milestone, with Conquest's plans for a new mixed-use precinct officially placed on public exhibition.

The State Significant Development Application would transform the 1.7-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/19a-evans-avenue-eastlakes-nsw-2018">19A Evans Avenue</a> into one of Sydney's largest urban renewal projects, delivering 736 apartments above a new shopping centre anchored by Woolworths, alongside specialty retail, dining, commercial space and new public open spaces.

The public exhibition marks the next chapter for the project after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/conquest">Conquest</a> acquired the stalled Stage Two development from Crown Group, who completed the first stage across the road prior to their voluntary liquidation.

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fca22c5-d1ed-4e2c-8801-03f7df1eafc8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland%20podium.png?VersionId=uomwr41nF8CmLUZRDcu3mHQechlbxucS" />

&nbsp;

Designed by DKO Architecture, the proposal comprises four residential buildings ranging from 14 to 18 storeys above a two-level retail podium. The development would deliver 736 apartments, including 74 affordable homes, 215 Build-to-Rent apartments and 521 market residences. Provision has also been made for dual-key apartments, which could increase the total number of dwellings to 877.

At ground level, the shopping centre has been designed as the suburb's new meeting place, anchored by a full-line Woolworths and complemented by a curated mix of fresh food retailers, cafés, restaurants, health services and everyday convenience shopping. Generous pedestrian links and landscaped public spaces will connect the retail precinct through to Jack Mundey Reserve, creating a more walkable and connected neighbourhood.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

"Eastlakes has been overlooked for too long, and this is the community’s moment. We are building a shopping centre and homes, a genuine heart for the suburb, and we genuinely want locals to help shape it."

"We enrich communities through the creation of homes, places, and experiences designed for life, built to last, and owner for generations. That starts with listening, so we warmly encourage everyone with a connection to Eastlakes to view the plans and share their thoughts."

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="22f6fb20-54fb-4bd7-8a92-48fafdd00608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland.png?VersionId=cugp7s9hrMHGJJdYzkeAkrFoQgnF4GXf" />

DKO said the design had been shaped by the site's landscape setting and surrounding open space.

"Our vision for the site embraces its unique Bidjigal identity by blending the residential living with generous landscaping and a material palette inspired by the Bidjigal locality, and celebrating the panoramic views to Botany Bay and the wetlands reserves."

"Taking cues from Country, we seek to harmonise built form with the landscape and lightly touch the earth. By reconnecting, retaining and regenerating existing ecology, and weaving in natural elements, we can deepen our connection to Country."

The landscape strategy extends across the podium and rooftops, incorporating communal gardens, children's play areas, lawns, community gardens, family gathering spaces and extensive tree planting. New landscaped links will also strengthen the connection between the precinct and Jack Mundey Reserve, while publicly accessible open spaces have been integrated throughout the development.

The proposal builds on Conquest's broader placemaking strategy for the site. Through an ongoing partnership, local artist Joe Rashbrook has been appointed Urban Art Curator, working alongside young residents to transform the project's site hoardings into a public art gallery that allows the community to engage with the redevelopment before construction is complete.

Conquest has rapidly expanded its development pipeline since acquiring the Eastlakes site, with more than $6 billion worth of mixed-use projects now in planning across Sydney, including Stanmore, Castlecrag and Waterloo.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

First look: ‘Far more than replacing a shopping centre’ as Conquest unveils 736-home Eastlakes redevelopment

Abadeen has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for one of Mosman's largest apartment developments in recent years, seeking approval to transform the former Honeysuckle Garden and Midas site on Military Road into a 100-apartment mixed-use development.

The SSDA, lodged with investment partner Phoenix Property Investors, proposes around $230 million worth of new housing on the prominent <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/494-516-military-road-mosman-nsw-2088">494-516 Military Road</a> site.

The proposal comes as Mosman Council continues to progress its recently endorsed Masterplan, which identifies the precinct for increased housing density while maintaining the suburb's established character.

Designed by DKO Architecture, the development would comprise 100 apartments above ground-floor retail, with a rooftop wellness precinct including a gym, sauna, entertaining areas and landscaped communal spaces.

Rather than pushing to the full 12-storey height identified in Council's Masterplan, the proposal ranges between five and nine storeys, stepping down towards Hale Road. A tenth level would accommodate resident amenities rather than additional apartments.

The project has been designed to appeal to a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and young professionals through to families and local downsizers looking to remain on the Lower North Shore.

<img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5dada03f-5b4c-43ba-ba62-2868add31440" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.57.55%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7LBy0B.Jo8_iWAFJsClcV7Q3UnXrv49r" />

Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock.

"The apartments have been designed as genuine long-term homes, with efficient floorplans that maximise usable living areas, generous storage, natural light and strong connections between indoor and outdoor spaces," Brown says."

"We've focused on creating homes for a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and growing families through to downsizers who want to remain in Mosman."

The rooftop wellness offering forms a key part of the proposal, with residents set to have access to a gym, sauna, outdoor entertaining spaces, communal dining areas, landscaped gardens and a multi-use recreation court overlooking Sydney Harbour.

<img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d37c2d6b-583a-4a0f-b7a9-9f46b893d2f4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.58.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=FPoa5FCm2RtzjhAh2w5FTWJbV6GHfY8D" />

DKO drew heavily on the site's natural and cultural history, undertaking a Connecting with Country process with local Aboriginal Elders to inform the architectural and landscape design.

Senior Associate Matthew Ritchard said the design sought to create a building that responded to both the site's landscape and its cultural significance.

"The architectural language of the project is a deep expression of Connecting with Country, where the materiality and colour palette serve as a bridge between the site's geological history and its future as a residential sanctuary."

The proposal also retains the site's established blue gum tree as the centrepiece of the communal landscaped gardens, while introducing activated retail fronting Military Road to strengthen the connection between Mosman and Cremorne villages.

If approved, the project would deliver 100 new homes within walking distance of shops, public transport, schools and local amenities, adding to the limited pipeline of new apartments on the Lower North Shore.

<h2>Project Snapshot</h2>

Project: Honeysuckle Garden Redevelopment

Address: 494-516 Military Road, Mosman

Developer: Abadeen and Phoenix Property Investors

Architect: DKO Architecture

Lead Architect: Matthew Ritchard

Value: $230 million

Residences: 100 apartments

Key features:

<ul>
	<li>
	Ground-floor retail
	</li>
	<li>
	Rooftop wellness precinct
	</li>
	<li>
	Gym and sauna
	</li>
	<li>
	Outdoor entertaining and BBQ areas
	</li>
	<li>
	Landscaped communal gardens
	</li>
	<li>
	Multi-use recreation court
	</li>
	<li>
	Retained mature blue gum tree
	</li>
	<li>
	Connecting with Country design process
	</li>
	<li>
	Harbour, CBD and Balmoral views from upper-level apartments
	</li>
</ul>

Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock

First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman

The wave of apartment proposals sweeping through Mosman shows no signs of slowing, with another major residential development lodged through the NSW Government's State Significant Development pathway.

Developer First Quadrant Properties, which recently completed Willoughby Grounds and has several projects in planning across the North Shore, has unveiled plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cove-on-ourimbah-40-56-ourimbah-road-mosman-nsw-2088">Cove on Ourimbah</a>, a 63-apartment development on Ourimbah Road, adding to the growing pipeline of projects reshaping one of Sydney's most tightly held harbour suburbs.

The proposal would consolidate nine properties at 40-56 Ourimbah Road into a part eight, part nine-storey apartment building, continuing the momentum created by the NSW Government's accelerated planning pathways that have seen several significant developments emerge across Mosman over the past 12 months.

Designed by Doroch Architects, the project would deliver 63 apartments, resident wellness facilities including a gym, pool and sauna, landscaped communal spaces and basement parking, while using recessed upper levels, generous setbacks and extensive planting to reduce the perceived scale of the building.

<img alt="First look: First Quadrant Properties eyes nine-storey Mosman apartment project under State Significant pathway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32ee68e4-141e-4a10-8f83-48e961a5e71e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ourimbah%20Road%2C%20Mosman%20a.png?VersionId=CUeILFc6APlwXPc.iplElbxHvREKwjig" />

Doroch Architects said the building had been designed to reinforce Mosman's established character.

"The building's aesthetic is grounded in the existing residential character of Ourimbah Road and the broader Mosman context," the architect noted in the planning documents submitted to the NSW Government.

The design adopts a contemporary material palette of natural stone, textured concrete and brown concave metal cladding, complemented by integrated planters and deep balconies. The podium incorporates softened curved concrete forms, while increased setbacks have been provided adjacent to the heritage-listed property at 60 Ourimbah Road to create a more sympathetic transition.

The site sits around 330 metres from Mosman Town Centre, placing it within the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy area, where increased residential density is being encouraged close to shops, transport and services.

The proposal follows a string of major apartment projects lodged or declared State Significant in Mosman in recent months, including Abadeen's 100-apartment Honeysuckle Garden redevelopment on Military Road and several other developments across Awaba Street, Redan Street and Muston Street from the likes of Time &amp; Place, HELM and Prosker Property.

&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Time &amp; Place to take on Mosman apartment market</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-abadeen-plans-100-apartments-on-former-honeysuckle-garden-site-in-mosman">First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman</a>

&nbsp;

Jonathan Chancellor

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