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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
What will happen now that the rains have come to many parched beef lands of Queensland? Current high cattle prices and renewed pastures suggest optimism, even good times. Perhaps record exports from the world’s largest beef exporter? If only if was that simple.
While an important indicator of Australia beef prices peaked recently, analysts warned export volumes were likely to fall.
High prices for Australian meat has already seen Chinese imports down this year by 30 percent and US imports down 40 percent <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-trade-agreements-fail-to-boost-australian-agriculture-and-food-manufacturing-47576">(</a>largely correcting a recent Australian trade gain<a href="https://theconversation.com/free-trade-agreements-fail-to-boost-australian-agriculture-and-food-manufacturing-47576">)</a>.
Restocking after drought would seem to account for the near record East Australian cattle price.
Unfortunately, eager buyers paying top dollar for a production input take a considerable risk, as was discovered 40 years ago when prices last peaked.
Not only is a cattle price of $6.66/kg on July 27 2016 still short of around $7.00/kg in the mid-1970s. Costs are markedly higher, as are debts.
Indeed, investigations reported by the Queensland Rural Debt and Drought Taskforce show extremely high levels of financial and personal stress. Key financial ratios are in disarray for many enterprises, small and large, family and corporate. Speculating on near-record cattle prices can, at best, buy a little time.
Most worrying are the inadequacies of income to service very high and rising levels of debts, secured by properties that have halved in values. A debt-deflation spiral is clearly underway.
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<h4><img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5660-4jbhng.jpg" alt=""></h4>
<h4>
Land and Debt index Queensland Beef. Figures in the Graph reveal ongoing declines in land values below and rising debts above, all the way to 2015. Later year debts are estimates, because of data difficulties. Bush Agribusiness using ABS and ABARE Data to 2012; McGovern projections from 2013
</h4>
Using projections, survey data and cross checking with those in the industry, it is estimated debt is up 50 percent since 2006. (A disclaimer is needed here as financiers have refused to release needed data, despite all manner of requests including last November at the Queensland Treasurer’s Rural Roundtable.)
Land values went the other way. In Queensland’s western pastoral areas, for example, Queensland’s Valuer General estimates the land market peaked around 2008 and then fell back to around 2005–06 value levels. “This market continues to be subdued, with very few sales transactions”, it reported.
Even initially very sound borrowers now see serious equity destruction. Extensive capital exposures seem to have been little appreciated, all round. Farmer equity below 70% is usually regarded as high risk. Average equity positions of even previously very low risk enterprises are now likely to be markedly declined.
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<img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5666-1vrtrwi.jpg" alt="">
<h4>
Illustrative Industry Equity positions 
</h4>
Apprehension, deep angst and quiet hope were evident in hearings of the Rural Debt and Drought Taskforce held across Queensland six months ago. The report is now in, but is surprisingly little discussed so far.
Evidence of widespread, serious financial and other problems has led to 14 recommendations, including establishing a reconstruction board, agricultural bank and a Royal Commission. Action was recommended on income, education, mental health and other needs.
In a nutshell, serious responses to major foundational financial problems are needed. Farm and town enterprises are depressed with many (once) “resilient” communities very much on the edge.
Rural Bank recently published research which reinforces the seriousness of the problem. A high number of transactions occurred in a rising market with asset values rapidly moving away from income potential. A significant number of loans involved speculation, on both sides of the agreement.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5643-emu4iu.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160727-5643-emu4iu.jpg" alt="">
<h4>Rural Bank, Queensland North: build to twin peaks highlighted</h4>
Fundamentally, incomes cannot support debts. What on earth was going on when, across Australia, farmland prices and associated debts inflated in the teens each year for almost a decade, while incomes hardly moved?
The subpriming of Australian Agriculture is just one of the questions facing further Parliamentary Inquiries into finance, and Royal Commissions.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160728-21569-o0zmg.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<h4><img src="/images/2016/08/01/image-20160728-21569-o0zmg.png" alt=""></h4>
<h4>ABARES land and receipts per ha</h4>
It is time for not just plain talk on rural debt but for effective actions.
Problem loans now need to be re-solved, equitably. Land values need to be re-linked to earning capacity. A sustainable financial basis needs to be re-established across not just beef but other agricultural industries.
A well-constituted reconstruction board is pivotal in rectifying balance sheet stresses, catalysing solvency and brokering prudent inter-generational change.
Reconstruction in Australia’s past has achieved more equitable and higher value resolutions while avoiding fire sale losses, contagion, needless impoverishment and major capacity destruction across economies and communities.
“Political pressures will always favour the provision of liquidity; lasting solutions require a willingness to tackle the solvency issues,” wrote former Bank of England Governor <a href="https://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-End-of-Alchemy/">Mervyn King</a>.
Just maintaining rural liquidity by offering effectively unsecured public finance (such as with Drought and Dairy concessional loan program) despite criticism from Australian National Audit Office and other reports, seems foolhardy. More or slightly cheaper debt to those struggling with major debt overhangs is no real solution.
Doubling up by blaming the implementing state agencies for program design failures and then marketing these as the cornerstone Federal (and perhaps State?) policy is just foolish.
Four points in summary:
<ol>
<li>
Current rural problems are relatively easily solvable, and earlier generations succeeded. Solutions require governments and industries attuned to more prudent financial and monetary thinking.
</li>
<li>
There will always be losses in any correction but good policies, public and private, can contain and sensibly distribute losses.
</li>
<li>
Enterprises, industries and nations that recognise when important trends change and act accordingly can thrive while others stagnate.
</li>
<li>
Problems now evident in beef can affect any sector over-reliant on debt financing. Apt early interventions are far more effective than playing costly catch up.
</li>
</ol>
Unaddressed, problems will only spread. The temptation today is to pass on problems, uncorrected, to the next generation. Alternately, a competent and committed willingness to tackle significant solvency issues will underwrite our future prosperity, individually and as a society.
Mark McGovern is senior lecturer, QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-mcgovern-168" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Crippling rural debt looms as biggest threat to our beef producers

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GUEST OBSERVER
In a landmark ruling, the Supreme Court of Victoria has found that planning law, not strata law, is to govern short-term lettings of strata apartments.
Specifically, in Owners Corporation PS 501391P v Balcombe [2016] VSC 384, Justice Riordan found that a rule made to prohibit the use of a residential lot ‘for any trade or business’ in a strata scheme was invalid for these reasons:
<ol>
<li>The role of the owners corporation was confined to managing and administering the common property, and did not extend to restricting the use of a lot..</li>
<li>The rule was a substantial interference with the lot owners’ proprietary rights.</li>
<li>The strata law needed to clearly spell out clearly an intention to inhibit a lot owner’s use of their own lot for the rule to be valid - which it did not.</li>
</ol>
Background
The Watergate Apartments, Strata No PS 501391P is a mixed use development. It consists of 349 residential lots in two 16 storey apartment towers, erected upon a four storey podium which contains 12 retail lots and car park facilities. The plan of strata subdivision was registered on 28 June 2004. It is a residential Class 2 building under the Building Code of Australia, and therefore was not designed for the operation of a serviced apartment style business.
Ms Balcombe and Mr Slater utilise 14 apartments (1 owned, 9 leased, 4 available on a commission basis) to operate a Short-Term Letting business trading as ‘Docklands Executive Apartments’. In eight and a half years of operation, they have had over 3,500 bookings and 10,500 guests. They charge ‘executive’ prices, have minimum seven days stays, require photo identification and credit card details and can evict disruptive tenants immediately.
The City of Melbourne Council (the planning authority) consented to the use of apartments in the building for short-term commercial accommodation (serviced apartments) on condition that: a smoke alarm was installed in each bedroom; an emergency evacuation plan was affixed inside the entry doors; exit signs were placed in the corridors; and the tenants acknowledged the receipt of a safety/evacuation induction.
The proceedings were commenced by the Owners Corporation which sought restraining orders against Ms Balcombe and Mr Slater, alleging a breach of its rule (Rule 34) that provided:
The Proprietor or Occupier of a residential Lot must not use a Lot or the Common Property for any trade, profession or business (other than letting the Lot for residential accommodation to the same party for periods in excess of one month), nor permit any other person to do so, unless:
<ol>
<li>The person … is a full time resident of the Lot and only operates a home office …; and</li>
<li>The relevant planning scheme does not prohibit the relevant trade, profession or business to be carried on in a Lot; and</li>
<li>The Lot owner has obtained all necessary permits from the relevant authorities …</li>
</ol>
The Court’s finding that the Owners Corporation had no power to make the rule
The functions of an owners corporation are set out in section 4 of the Owners Corporations Act 2006(Vic). They can be summarised as:
<ol>
<li>to manage and administer the common property;</li>
<li>to repair and maintain the common property, fittings, fixtures, equipment and services relative to it;</li>
<li>to maintain strata insurance;</li>
<li>to keep records and issue certificates.</li>
</ol>
The powers of an owners corporation to make rules are set out in section 138 of the Owners Corporations Act 2006 (Vic), and are limited to the purposes set out in Schedule 1 of that Act. These purposes are relevant:
<ol>
<li>Health, safety and security – of lot owners, occupiers of lots and invitees.</li>
<li>Change of use of lots – which affect the insurance premiums payable by the owners corporation.</li>
<li>Behaviour of owners, occupiers and invitees on common property, noise and other nuisance control.</li>
</ol>
The Court found that the principal function of the owners corporation was ‘to own and manage the common property of the strata development’.
The Court found that the power of the owners corporation to make rules to prevent the use of a lot for an illegal or injurious purpose, to prevent a nuisance or hazard, or the behaviour of and noise created by tenants, was limited. It was not sufficient to support a general ban on Short-Term Letting on all lots. 
Health and safety issues and changes of use for a lot (an apartment), were planning matters for the Melbourne City Council to deal with.
Therefore the rule to outlaw use of an apartment for short-term letting was invalid as it exceeded the power of the owners corporation and interfered with the rights of the freehold owners.
As a result of this decision, an apartment owner in Victoria needs only planning permission to use their apartment for short-term lettings: Airbnb style short stays and service accommodation. They do not need permission from the owners corporation and any rule in place to restrict or prohibit that use is invalid.
Is the position the same or different in NSW?
There are subtle but significant differences in the strata law between NSW and Victoria:
<ul>
<li>In Victoria the owners corporation makes rules, in NSW it makes by-laws.</li>
<li>In both states, the common property is owned by the owners corporation (it used to be called the body corporate).</li>
<li>In NSW, under section 47(1) of the Strata Schemes Management Act 1996 (NSW), by-laws can be made generally ‘for the purpose of the control, management, administration, use or enjoyment’ of the lots or common property’, without limitation (see section 43), and with a right of appeal.</li>
<li>In Victoria, the rules are limited to the powers set out in Schedule 1.</li>
<li>Also in NSW, original by-laws which are lodged with the strata plan for registration can be broader than the section 47(1) powers, but are subject to section 49 restrictions which include prohibitions on by-laws which restrain leasing.</li>
</ul>
In NSW, the new Strata Schemes Management Act 2015 will commence on 30 November 2016. Section 136(1) is in similar terms to section 47(1) of the 1996 Act. Section 139 contains the section 49 restrictions, with some additions, including an override that a by-law must not be harsh, unconscionable or oppressive.
As a result, it is unclear whether the Victorian decision can be taken as a precedent to invalidate by-laws in NSW Strata Schemes which prohibit the use of lots for short-term letting.
Comments
The NSW Parliamentary Committee on Environment and Planning is currently conducting an inquiry upon the Adequacy of the Regulation of Short-term Holiday Letting in New South Wales. It would be most helpful if it were to indicate how the strata law should be clarified to deal with short-term lettings when it reports at the end of August 2016.
This matter needs to be addressed because of the requirement that all strata schemes review their by-laws within 12 months of the commencement of the 2015 Act.
My suggestions are:
<ul>
<li>That the planning authorities specifically provide for the regulation of short-term lettings for strata apartments in their planning policies.</li>
<li>That owners corporations be able to include a policy statement, which sets out their policy upon use of the residential apartments for short-term lettings, as an adjunct to their by-laws. This policy statement would not have the legal force of a by-law, but would be influential if an application were made to the planning authorities for approval to use an apartment for short-term lettings.</li>
<li>To assist in enforcement, the owners corporation should be given the power to assist the enforcement officers of the planning authority to prosecute contraventions of the planning laws.</li>
<li>If a short-term letting use is being carried on, with or without planning approval, the owners corporation should be entitled to levy a surcharge upon the strata levies payable for the apartment in question, to cover extra wear and tear, garbage, insurance premiums, visitor parking and water use.</li>
</ul>
Anthony J Cordato is lawyer, Cordato Partners and can be <a href="https://www.businesslawyer.com.au" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
 
 
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Property 101: Victorian strata and lot owner proprietary rights

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GUEST OBSERVER
The last of the inflation reports – the producer price indexes – confirms the absence of inflationary pressures. 
The Reserve Bank Board can feel comfortable in cutting rates next Tuesday. The headline consumer price index showed annual growth at 17-year lows, underlying inflation is at record lows, imported consumer prices have fallen the most in four years and annual business inflation is standing at just 1.0 per cent.
The average of preliminary, intermediate and final demand indexes of domestic producer prices averaged growth of just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter – matching the consumer price headline and underlying readings.
The weak lending data removes yet another barrier to the Reserve Bank cutting rates. We can’t read too much into the result as Brexit and the Federal Election may have influenced lending intentions. But a fall in both personal and business lending is not a good look – especially with interest rates already so low. It was the smallest monthly lift in credit in 33 months. It was the biggest annual fall in personal loans in almost four years. And it was the biggest monthly fall in business loans in 3 1⁄2 years.
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
The producer price figures are important in flagging price pressures at an early stage. If business costs are rising, the risk is that these will be passed on in terms of higher prices of final consumer goods. The Consumer Price Index is regarded as the key gauge of economy-wide inflation. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Lending growth softens, tame business inflation: CommSec's Craig James

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The Chinese property developer Greenland tested the Sydney off the plan market with its weekend launch.
It secured the off the plan sale of around 100 apartments in its new Lachlan’s Line precinct, in Sydney’s north-west. 
The mixed-use development, nbh at Lachlan’s Line will consist of 900 apartments across six towers at Macquarie Park which is set to become Sydney’s fourth CBD with a wave of new development currently underway.
The first stage weekend offering had one bedroom apartments priced from $580,000 to $750,000. 
The one bedroom plus study apartments were priced from $650,000 to $880,000, with two bedroom, two bathroom apartments priced from $950,000 to $1.27 million.
There were four bedroom, three-storey townhouses priced at over $2.5 million in the complex designed by two architecture firms, Bates Smart and Turner, which will include a corporate space to be occupied by the City of Ryde Council. 
Sherwood Luo, the managing director of Greenland Australia, said there had been a strong response from the market. There were a reported 180 apartments available to purchase in the first offering.
“Nbh at Lachlan’s Line will become a lifestyle-oriented community with a beautiful big park anchoring the development as well as a huge 6000 square metre activated retail precinct featuring restaurants, cafes and gourmet grocers which will become a new destination for Sydneysiders." 
Mr Luo also credited the day’s sales tally to the "highly respected reputation which Greenland has built as a global developer." 
“Greenland has developed several of the tallest residential towers and largest urban complexes in the world,” he said. 
CBRE Residential Projects agent Tim Rees said the results "surpassed expectations." That's a reference to the recent insights on Sydney's residential off-the-plan property market from CBRE Residential who've acknowledge the days of 100 percent whole block sellouts are over.
These days Sydney had returned to a “new normal”, the CBRE Residential managing director, David Milton suggested, amid increased media headlines suggesting reduced demand and higher stock levels could spell trouble. 
Although the cost of buying property in Australia has increased for foreign buyers and lending is more restricted, David Milton remains confident, and does not foresee a long-term impact on demand from these buyers.
“There are some short term settlement issues with FIRB buyers, but longer-term they will find a solution," he recently suggested.
Offshore funded sales will continue to account for a significant part of the market, he anticipates. 
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Greenland's Lachlan Line project, nbh launched

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Be warned if you are buying or selling your $2 million plus home in NSW, there's new onerous tax paperwork obligations.
The Federal Government has introduced what they dubbed was a foreign residents’ capital gains withholding tax - with the worthy aim to catch foreigners selling up and taking off with all the proceeds.
But is is actually causing severe inconvenience and costly impacts on Australians in suburbia.
The laws makes buyers de facto tax collectors - and the wide tax net being cast will not just catch those few tricky foreigners on their mostly profitable exit from our shores.
It basically requires the purchaser, where the vendor is a foreign resident, to hand over 10 percent of the purchase price towards the Australian Tax Office who will then assess the foreigner's full tax obligations.
But every Australian resident vendor also needs to provide a clearance certificate otherwise 10 percent will head off to Canberra for a time.
The obligation is on the purchaser to ascertain if the vendor is foreign, and if so, then have your solicitor and bank, direct 10 percent to the ATO on settlement. 
It comes with penalties as any purchaser who fails to correctly withhold will pay an administrative penalty equal to the amount of tax they should have remitted to the ATO.  
Where a certificate is provided, the purchaser has no requirements.
Ideally it ought be included by the vendor in the contract on auction day, but the online Clearance certificate application for Australian residents form only became available on ato.gov.au/FRCGW from late June which didn't help its introduction.
Solicitors, who have had to hike conveyancing fees, tell me there have been long delays in obtaining a certificate. 
This means some resident vendors are having rightful funds temporarily withheld from sale proceeds. Chaos if your are off to buy something else.
Any likely prestige vendor this spring ought apply asap to the ATO for a clearance certificate even before the property gets listed for sale as it lasts 12 months.
And also if you think there's a chance the house or apartment will likely fetch $1.9 million, but might fetch $2 million on auction day.
Also get your tax returns in for the past two years because that will assist in the process. If the property ownership and revenue is part of the black economy then expect it to be detected once it goes onto the ATO data base.
If the vendor is an Australian resident, the aim is for a certificate to be issued electronically within days, but data irregularities will trigger weeks of delay.
Any withholding does not affect the transfer of ownership, but it may prudent for a special condition in the sales contract that delays completion until obtaining an ATO certificate.
This all dates to 2012 with the legislation finally becoming law in February this year to take effect from July 1 for property including vacant land, buildings, residential and commercial property, leaseholds and strata title schemes. The government website suggests the $2 million figure ensures the vast majority of residential house sales will be unaffected, though CoreLogic has the number of Sydney suburbs with a median value in excess of $2 million doubling in the space of just a year to 40.
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Foreign residents' withholding tax to leave locals short for property upgrades

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SPONSORED POST
Do you own a home on a large block of land in an area that's in high demand? You could be sitting on a gold mine and not even know it.
As Perth's population looks to maintain growth and demand for property in inner city locations seems to soar, your backyard could be the key to unlocking wealth.
More and more West Australians are taking advantage of zoning changes by swapping the hills hoist for a duplex development or triplex development investment.
Here's how it works. Say you've owned a house on an 800sqm block for five or 10 years. In that time you've partially paid down the mortgage, leaving you with some decent equity. You could borrow against this equity to fund a subdivision, which could occur in two ways:
<ol>
<li>Keep your existing home and build in the backyard</li>
<li>Demolish your existing home and develop the entire property.</li>
</ol>
Benefits of developing your backyard
As long as you conduct a careful feasibility study, developing your property can be a profitable venture.
Generate multiple rental incomes
By subdividing your property into a duplex development or triplex development, you'll have the potential to double or triple the earning ability of your land. You could live in the existing home while renting out the new home/s. And if rental returns are strong enough, you could be looking at a positively geared investment.
Maximises your land's value
Many homeowners value the lifestyle benefits of a large backyard. However, if you're willing to sacrifice some square meterage, you'll maximise the value of your land by releasing cash from an unused backyard – something you probably didn't factor in when originally buying the property.
Relatively low risk
It's simple maths really - one lot, multiple dwellings. Unlike a traditional single house development where you build one home on one lot, a duplex development or triplex development allows you to split the land cost between two or three dwellings. Of course, the cost of subdivision must be factored in, but when you consider that each new property you create could be valued almost as much as a similar sized dwelling on a larger block, it's easy to see where profits can be made.
Generate cash flow
Put simply, the more money coming in, the more you have to reinvest in other opportunities.
Opportunity to sell existing house
Many investors stay in the existing home when developing their backyard. However, you could potentially sell the existing house (often for close to the price you paid for the land and house originally), which could be free of capital gains tax. You could use this to pay off your mortgage or release much needed funds for another investment.
Can I develop my backyard?
If you want to maximise the development potential of your backyard, you'll need to first gain an understanding of the Residential Design Codes of Western Australia, commonly known as 'R-Codes'.
As a basic rule, R-Codes stipulate how many residential units are allowed to be developed on a 10,000sqm block of land. You can use this to work out the minimum size of a residential block. For example, a 1000sqm lot in an R20 zoning would allow you to subdivide into two blocks of 500sqm.
However, R-code rules shift all the time. For instance, in August 2013 the codes went through significant changes to cater for increased demand for housing. One change saw the R20 code change its average lot size to 450sqm (down from 500sqm), while the new R60 code now permits an average lot size of 150sqm (down from 180sqm).
It's crucial to stay on top of R-codes to ensure a successful backyard development.
Ready to see what lucrative opportunities are tied up in your backyard? Talk to Summit Projects. They specialise in subdivisions, from triplex developments, to duplex developments and strata developments (Perth).
That means they can help you work out the best way to maximise your site's potential, as well as navigate R-coding and council requirements.
For more information from Summit Projects, <a href="https://www.summitprojects.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>. 
 
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Benefits of building an investment property in your backyard: Summit Projects

Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/61851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Mayors, CEOs, citizens and policy analysts are working to create uplifting images of their future cities. Their intended result is clear unifying visions for the city futures they desire.
So how can foresight make a difference in cities?
<h2>Visioning</h2>
The first way foresight improves cities is through visioning projects. The City of Greater Geelong is aiming to look ahead 20 to 30 years through its first visioning and strategy project, Geelong 2040. Interviewed about this, Geelong City CEO Kelvin Spiller said:
"Geelong 2040 will be a city-changing experience, for the long-term betterment of its residents and stakeholders. City visioning will be supported by community engagement. In the same manner that corporate engagement helps the carriage of new innovations upwards, visioning can do this for the planning of urban areas."
Perhaps longer-term visioning should be legislated to encourage managers to help cascade preferences upward and not only into the city vision.
<h2>Scenarios</h2>
The second way foresight shapes cities is by applying futures methods like scenarios. Scenarios use group problem-solving and collective cognition to shape insights into alternatives.
What are our 2040 city futures scenarios? Considering an emerging regional plan for Southeast Queensland, professor Sohail Inayatullah, the first UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, created the following alternatives:
Scenario one: visions are achieved and our cities are still liveable. By 2040, the population has dramatically increased, but good governance, community consultation and foresight have mitigated negative possibilities (crime, congestion, pollution) and enhanced positive possibilities (job growth, green belt protection, water and energy management).
People want to move into these visionary cities, even with higher housing prices. A fair go is still possible.
Scenario two: cities arrive at the fate of being “hot and paved”. Market pressures kept driving up housing prices. Developers paid lip service to green and social concerns and a two-class society has emerged. Traffic problems did not decrease; rather, efforts to widen highways led to more congestion. Funding went to major highway connections while public transport and alternative working-from-home practices were overlooked.
Global warming has only made life worse – temperatures continue to rise, water shortages increase. Health indicators worsen.
Three tiers of government look to each other for solutions. Federal governments just seek to stay in power. Capacity for sustainable futures shrinks.
Scenario three: worse yet, 2040 could be wired and miserable. In this scenario, the previous 20 years have been a series of confrontations between local, state and federal governments, between developers and environmentalists, between individual freedom and security, young and old, rural and coastal areas, and new migrants (many environmental refugees) and old migrants.
It is a world of endless sprawl, congested highways and gang warfare. Technology and power are used to keep collective peace.
Scenario four: the concern is for the long-term future. Councils all over Australia continue to develop their own visions. As a result, there is a community capacity to innovate.
The percentage of people known as “cultural creatives” has grown dramatically. The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation and global governance have become the official values.
The main changes are toward home-based work, public transport and active transport. Futures thinking is helping cities get ahead of challenges such as climate change, population growth and democratic policy selection.
Inayatullah’s new book, What Works, discusses other studies about city futures.
<h2>Sustainable actions</h2>
A third way foresight shapes futures is through sustainable actions. The following four southeast Queensland cities have undertaken city visioning in areas of public transport, energy and environment, and liveability.
Brisbane is planning subway metro and cross-river rail projects. These will benefit commuters in the middle and outer suburbs, who are increasingly experiencing long periods of gridlock.
On the Sunshine Coast, a 15-megawatt solar-powered plant is a first for Australian local government. It will offset the council’s entire electricity consumption by 2017.
On the Gold Coast, 7.3km of light rail extensions will be delivered before the 2018 Commonwealth Games. This will ease congestion, improve accessibility and promote economic growth.
In Logan, a Southbank development will create recreational space on river banks alongside floating restaurants to stimulate investment.
When I interviewed former Brisbane City CEO Jude Munro about city foresight, she observed:
"The benefits from closely linking land use and transport planning are a clear priority. However, more is required. Better legislation is called for to help cities to plan with foresight, but also city councils should be trialling a range of other measures being employed successfully in Australia."
"For example, having a community coalition of local leaders like the one the City of Logan is building can have positive insights for local governance teams to consider. Also, a dedicated team like the urban renewal team in Brisbane in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s could help re-establish principles of local area planning in cities of southeast Queensland."
In southeast Queensland, a new regional plan will unite its cities’ plans under a high-level strategic vision for the next 50 years.
Inayatullah, Spiller, Munro and I agree that, to ensure long-term actions work sustainably, cities should engage stakeholders and communities in visioning, involve futurists who understand how to apply and deepen scenarios and foresight methods, and create strategies within a futures framework. The last step relies upon:
<ul>
<li>
developing stronger sectoral, suburban and regionally aligned long-term plans;
</li>
<li>
aligning city short-term corporate plans to long-term visions;
</li>
<li>
working with state and federal government to align city visions with global East-West strategies, including geopolitical, economic and cultural elements; and
</li>
<li>
refreshing visions using futurists' methods to ensure a scientific and democratic engagement process.
</li>
</ul>
Foresight is synonymous with a transforming, renewable and complex urbanism. Globally, cities are driving change and applying foresight to open their markets and improve collective prosperity and places.
The need for sustainable urbanism compels us to update plans not only for physical infrastructure but also for “softer” matters of population, energy, ecology, safety, education, health and seamless connection up, down and across sectors, borders and cultures. The more we think ahead with greater depth and breadth of understanding and co-operation, the better our city futures will be.
Colin Russo is futurist, University of the Sunshine Coast and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/colin-russo-267108" target="_blank">here</a>.
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A tale of five cities: applying foresight to shape their futures 

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MH Premium Farms (MHPF), the Australian agricultural investment group of UK-based hedge fund founder, Sir Michael Hintze, has bought Deltroit, the Gundagai district farm.
The 2573 hectare Mundarlo property was offered for sale to wind up the agricultural portfolio of the Brisbane-based Australian Pastoral Group who had bought Deltroit in 2012 from  Anthony Crichton-Brown.
No price has been disclosed for the latest sale, but Inglis Rural were expecting $18 million to $20 million
MHPF’s properties now cover more than 50,000ha, mostly NSW, but also North Queensland, where MHPF spent $9 million recently on expanding its irrigated sugar farming operations at Ayr.
Deltroit will be used by MHPF to grow prime lambs, cattle and crops.
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Billionaire Michael Hintze buys Deltroit

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The high quality of Australia’s universities is a major drawcard for international students, but accommodation availability is just not keeping up with supply in Sydney.
In the latest rankings, Sydney University sits on The Times Higher Education top 100, giving the long established international rivals a run for their money. It came in ranked at 61st in the world. The University of NSW joins Sydney among the universities in another ranking, the QS top 100. 
Australia's international student population continues to grow at a double digit rate, recent research from the estate agency, Savills International.
The OECD noted this reflects an international trend of student mobility when they reported more than four million international students were enrolled in tertiary education outside of their country of origin in 2013, an increase of 50 percent from 2005 levels.
Australia hosted the third largest number of international students at 6.2 percent in 2013, behind the US and UK at 19.4 percent and 10.3 percent respectively.
Sydney's standing contributes to robust demand for international student accommodation. 
New South Wales, then Victoria and Queensland have the greatest number of enrolments. 
NSW has around 327,000 domestic higher education students with another 93,000 international students.
The top nationalities, China, India, Vietnam, Republic of Korea and Malaysia. 
Chinese students provided over 27 percent of the total number of international students in Australia in 2015. 
Australia ranked as the third most popular destination for Chinese students (12.1 percent) after the US (33 percent) and Japan (12.3 percent). Australia was also third most popular for students from India after the US (48.2 percent) and UK (11.5 percent).
This has made property investors, institutional and private, move beyond the traditional property markets into student accommodation where the fundamentals are strong.
Some five percent of students are in university accommodation, five percent are in commercial accommodation with 90 percent renting privately or living at home.
At the moment there is a "critical undersupply" of appropriate Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in Sydney, Savills Sydney student accommodation director Conal Newland said..
The high occupancy levels, robust revenue growth and attractive yield pricing make student accommodation is an attractive investment, he concluded.
The result of the growing levels of investor activity has meant that the student accommodation market is changing rapidly. 
Savills research indicates that more than $2 billion of capital has been earmarked for development projects across Australia since the start of 2015. 
Several new institutional investors have entered the market including Blue Sky Private Real Estate, Cedar Pacific, Global Student Accommodation, Scape, Valparaiso and Wee Hur. They have joined the likes of Unilodge, best known for their Central Park, Chippendale offering.
There are currently 67,695 PBSA beds in the eight Australian capital cities. All cities have an existing supply of less than 12 percent per full-time student with the exception of Canberra's 27 percent.
Melbourne and Brisbane have the largest development pipelines.
Sydney has a limited pipeline over the next four years with an additional 3,665 beds, of which around 38 percent are proposed by universities.
Savills nominated Urbanest as the most active off-campus developer with three properties completed since 2015 and another two in development.
Sydney saw 3,200 beds delivered in 2015 with these new properties trading at circa 70 percent occupancy in their first semester of operations.
In 2016 the average occupancy levels are at above 90 percent.
A number of universities, including the University of Western Sydney have commenced on-campus projects.
UNSW has been active delivering new halls of residence at the Kensington Campus in 2014 and 2015.
University of Sydney is an increasing participant – particularly at lower rental levels with the delivery of the Queen Mary building and weekly rents less than $300.
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 Student housing not meeting supply in Sydney

Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.

Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.

There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.

Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."

&nbsp;

The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;

The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;

Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

Joel Robinson

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.

Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.

The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.

<img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" />

A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.

Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.

New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.

GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.

First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.

The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.

Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368856]

The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.

GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available

Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]

The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.

The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]

For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.

GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.

"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.

"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]

GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.

The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.

&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.

The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.

<img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" />

A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.

The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.

"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.

The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.

Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."

The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.

<img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" />

The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.

S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.

Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.

John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.

First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Jonathan Chancellor

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